The latest US cruise missile attack on the Syrian airbase is an extremely important event in so many ways that it is important to examine it in some detail. I will try to do this today with the hope to be able to shed some light on a rather bizarre attack which will nevertheless have profound consequences. But first, let’s begin by looking at what actually happened.
I don’t think that anybody seriously believes that Assad or anybody else in the Syrian government really ordered a chemical weapons attack on anybody. To believe that it would require you to find the following sequence logical: first, Assad pretty much wins the war against Daesh which is in full retreat. Then, the US declares that overthrowing Assad is not a priority anymore (up to here this is all factual and true). Then, Assad decides to use weapons he does not have. He decides to bomb a location with no military value, but with lots of kids and cameras. Then, when the Russians demand a full investigation, the Americans strike as fast as they can before this idea gets any support. And now the Americans are probing a possible Russian role in this so-called attack. Frankly, if you believe any of that, you should immediately stop reading and go back to watching TV. For the rest of us, there are three options:
- a classical US-executed false flag
- a Syrian strike on a location which happened to be storing some kind of gas, possibly chlorine, but most definitely not sarin. This option requires you to believe in coincidences. I don’t. Unless,
- the US fed bad intelligence to the Syrians and got them to bomb a location where the US knew that toxic gas was stored.
What is evident is that the Syrians did not drop chemical weapons from their aircraft and that no chemical gas was ever stored at the al-Shayrat airbase. There is no footage showing any munitions or containers which would have delivered the toxic gas. As for US and other radar recordings, all they can show is that an aircraft was in the sky, its heading, altitude and speed. There is no way to distinguish a chemical munition or a chemical attack by means of radar.
Whatever option you chose, the Syrian government is obviously and self-evidently innocent of the accusation of having used chemical weapons. This is most likely a false flag attack.
Also, and just for the record, the US had been considering exactly such a false flag attack in the past. You can read everything about this plan here and here.
American and Russian sources both agree on the following facts: 2 USN ships launched 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles at the Al Shayrat airfield in Syria. The US did not consult with the Russians on a political level, but through military channels the US gave Russia 2 hours advance warning. At this point the accounts begin to differ.
The Americans say that all missiles hit their targets. The Russians say that only 23 cruise missiles hit the airfield. The others are “unaccounted for”. Here I think that it is indisputable that the Americans are lying and the Russians are saying the truth: the main runway is intact (the Russian reporters provided footage proving this) and only one taxiway was hit. Furthermore, the Syrian Air Force resumed its operations within 24 hours. 36 cruise missiles have not reached their intended target. That is a fact.
It is also indisputable that there were no chemical munitions at this base as nobody, neither the Syrians nor the Russian reporters, had to wear any protective gear.
The missiles used in the attack, the Tomahawk, can use any combination of three guidance systems: GPS, inertial navigation and terrain mapping. There is no evidence and even no reports that the Russians shot even a single air-defense missile. In fact, the Russians had signed a memorandum with the USA which specifically comitting Russia NOT to interfere with any US overflights, manned or not, over Syria (and vice versa). While the Tomahawk cruise missile was developed in the 1980s, there is no reason to believe that the missiles used had exceeded their shelf live and there is even evidence that they were built in 2014. The Tomahawk is known to be accurate and reliable. There is absolutely no basis to suspect that over half of the missiles fired simply spontaneously malfunctioned. I therefore see only two possible explanations for what happened to the 36 missing cruise missiles:
Explanation A: Trump never intended to really hit the Syrians hard and this entire attack was just “for show” and the USN deliberately destroyed these missiles over the Mediterranean. That would make it possible for Trump to appear tough while not inflicting the kind of damage which would truly wreck his plans to collaborate with Russia. I do not believe in this explanation and I will explain why in the political analysis below.
Explanation B: The Russians could not legally shoot down the US missiles. Furthermore, it is incorrect to assume that these cruise missiles flew a direct course from the Mediterranean to their target (thereby almost overflying the Russian radar positions). Tomahawk were specifically built to be able to fly tangential courses around some radar types and they also have a very low RCS (radar visibility), especially in the frontal sector. Some of these missiles were probably flying low enough not to be seen by Russian radars, unless the Russians had an AWACS in the air (I don’t know if they did). However, since the Russians were warned about the attack they had plenty of time to prepare their electronic warfare stations to “fry” and otherwise disable at least part of the cruise missiles. I do believe that this is the correct explanation. I do not know whether the Russian were technically unable to destroy and confuse the 23 missiles which reached the base or whether a political decision was taken to let less than half of the cruise missiles through in order to disguise the Russian role in the destruction of 36 missiles. What I am sure of is that 36 advanced cruise missile do not “just disappear”. There are two reasons why the Russians would have decided to use their EW systems and not their missiles: first, it provides them “plausible deninability” (at least for the general public, there is no doubt that US signal intelligence units did detect the Russian electronic interference (unless it happened at very low power and very high frequency and far away inland), and because by using EW systems it allowed them to keep their air defense missiles for the protection of their own forces. Can the Russian really do this?
Take a look at this image, taken from a Russian website, which appears to have been made by the company Kret which produces some of the key Russian electronic warfare systems. Do you notice that on the left hand side, right under the AWACs aircraft you can clearly see a Tomahawk type missile turning around and eventually exploding at sea?
How this is done is open to conjecture. All that we are told is that the missile is given a “false target” but for our purposes this really does not matter. What matters is that the Russians have basically leaked the information that they are capable of turning cruise missiles around. There are other possibilities such as an directed energy beams which basically fries or, at least, confuses the terrain following and or inertial navigation systems. Some have suggested a “kill switch” which would shut down the entire missile. Maybe. Again, this really doesn’t matter for our purposes. What matters is that the Russian have the means to spoof, redirect or destroy US cruise missiles. It sure appears to be that for the first time these systems were used in anger.
[Sidebar: for those interested in seeing what such a system looks like here is a short video made by the Russians themselves showing how such a system is deployed and operated:
In terms of technical details, or we are told that this system can jam any airborne object at a distance of 200km]
I would note that those who say that the Russian air defense systems did not work don’t know what they are talking about. Not only did Russia sign an agreement with the US not to interfere with US flight operations, the Russian air defenses in Syria are NOT tasked with the protection of the Syrian Air Space. That is a task for the Syrian air defenses. The Russians air defenses in Syria are only here to protect Russian personnel and equipment. This is why the Russians never targeted Israeli warplanes. And this is hardly surprising as the Russian task force in Syria never had the mission to shut down the Syrian air space or, even less so, to start a war with the USA or Israel.
However, this might be changing. Now the Russians have withdrawn from their agreement with the USA and, even more importantly, have have declared that the Syrians urgently need more advanced air defense capabilities. Currently the Syrians operate very few advanced Russian air defense systems, most of their gear is old.
Legal aspects of the attack:
The US attack happened in direct violation of US law, of international law and of the UN charter. First, I would say that there is strong legal evidence that the US attack violated the US Constitution, Presidential War Powers Act and the 2001 Authorization of Military Force (AUMF) resolution. But since I don’t really care about this aspect of Trump’s criminal behavior, I will just refer you to two pretty good analyses of this issue (see here and here) and just simply summarize the argument of those who say that what Trump did was legal. It boils down to this: “yeah, it’s illegal, but all US Presidents have been doing it for so long that they have thereby created a legal precedent which, uh, makes it legal after all“. I don’t think this kind of “defense” is worthy of a reply or rebuttal. So now let’s turn to international law.
Most people think that crimes against humanity or genocide must be the ultimate crime under international law. They are wrong. The ultimate crime is aggression. This is the conclusion of the Nuremberg Trial on this topic:
To initiate a war of aggression, therefore, is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole.
So, following the long and prestigious list of other US Presidents before him, Donald Trump is now a war criminal. In fact, he is a “supreme war criminal”. It only took him 77 days to achieve this status, probably some kind of a record.
As for the UN Charter, at least for articles (1, 2, 33, 39) ban the kind of aggression the USA took against Syria.
I think that there is no need to dwell on the total illegality of this attack. I would just underscore the supreme irony of a country basically built by and run by lawyers (just see how many of them there are in Congress) whose general population seems to be totally indifferent to the fact that their elected representatives act in a completely illegal manner. All that most American people care about is whether the illegal action brings victory or not. But if it does, absolutely nobody cares. You disagree? Tell me, how many peace demonstrations were there in the USA about the totally illegal US aggression on Yugoslavia? Exactly. QED.
Political consequences (internal)
My son perfectly summed up what Trump’s actions have resulted in: “those who hated him still hate him while those who supported him now also hate him“. Wow! How did Trump and his advisors fail to predict that? Instead of fulfilling his numerous campaign promises (and his own Twitter statements) Trump decided to suddenly make a 180 and totally betray everything he stood for. I can’t think of a dumber action, I really can’t. I have to say that Trump now appears to make Dubya look smart. But there is much, much worse.
The worst aspect of this clusterf**k is how utterly immoral this makes Trump appear. Think of it – first Trump abjectly betrayed Flynn. Then he betrayed Bannon.
[Sidebar: I mostly liked Flynn. I had no use for Bannon at all. But the fact is that they were not my best friends, they were Trump’s best friends. And instead of standing up for them, he sacrificed them to the always bloodthirsty Neocons in the hope of appeasing them. This is what I wrote about this stupid and deeply immoral betrayal the day it happened:
Remember how Obama showed his true face when he hypocritically denounced his friend and pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr.? Today, Trump has shown us his true face. Instead of refusing Flynn’s resignation and instead of firing those who dared cook up these ridiculous accusations against Flynn, Trump accepted the resignation. This is not only an act of abject cowardice, it is also an amazingly stupid and self-defeating betrayal because now Trump will be alone, completely alone, facing the likes of Mattis and Pence – hard Cold Warrior types, ideological to the core, folks who want war and simply don’t care about reality.
The worst aspect of that is that by betraying people left and right Trump has now shown that you cannot trust him, that he will backstab you with no hesitation whatsoever. Would you ever take a risk for a guy like that? Contrast that with Putin who is “notorious” for standing by his friends and allies even when they do something really wrong! There is a reason why the AngloZionists could not break Putin and why it only took them one month to neuter Trump: Putin is made of titanium, Trump is just an overcooked noodle]
And now Trump has betrayed HIMSELF by turning against everything he, himself, stood for. This is almost Shakespearean in its pathetic and tragic aspects!
During his campaign Trump made a lot of excellent promises and he did inspire millions of Americans to support him. I personally believe that he was sincere in his intentions, and I don’t buy the “it was all an act” theory at all. Just look at the total panic of the Neocons at the prospects of a Trump victory and tell me this was all fake. No, I think that Trump was sincere. But when confronted with the ruthless opposition of the Neocons and the US deep state, Trump snapped and instantly broke because he is clearly completely spineless and has the ethics and morals of a trailer park prostitute.
So what we really have is a sad and pathetic version of Obama. A kind of Obama 2.0 if you want. The man inspired millions, he promised change you can believe in, and he delivered absolutely nothing except for an abject subservience to the real masters and owners of the United States: the Neocons and the deep state.
Trump did get what he apparently wanted, though: the very same corporate media which he claimed to despise is now praising him. And nobody is calling him a “Putin agent” any more. None of which will prevent the Neocons from impeaching him, by the way. He chose a quickfix solution which will stop acting in just days. How totally stupid of him. He apparently also chose the option of an “attack for show” to begin with, which turned into one of the most pathetic attacks in history, probably courtesy of Russian EW, and now that the USA has wasted something in the range of 100 million dollars, what does Trump have to show? A few flattering articles from the media which he has always hated and which will return to hate him as soon as ordered to do so by its Neocon masters. Pathetic if you ask me.
Ever since he got into the White House, Trump has been acting like your prototypical appeaser (it makes me wonder if his father was an alcoholic). How a guy like him ever made in business is a mystery to me, but what is now clear is that the Neocons totally submitted him and that they will now turn him into political roadkill.
I am afraid that the next four years (or less!) will turn into a neverending Purim celebration…
Political consequences (external)
Trump has single handedly destroyed any hopes of a US collaboration with Russia of any kind. Worse, he has also destroyed any hopes of being able to defeat Daesh. Why? Because if you really believe that Daesh can be defeated without Russian and Iranian support I want to sell you bridges all over the world. It ain’t happening. What is much, much worse is that now we are again on a pre-war situation, just as we were with Obama and would have been with Clinton. Let me explain.
The following are the measures with Russia has taken following the US attack on Syria:
- Denunciation at UN (to be expected, no big deal)
- Decision to strengthen the Syrian air defenses (big deal, that will give the Syrians the means to lock their airspace)
- Decision to cancel the Memorandum with the USA (now the Russians in Syria will have the right to decide whether to shoot or not)
- Decision to shut down the phone hot line with the US military (now the US won’t be able to call the Russians to ask them to do or not do something)
The combination of decisions 2, 3 and 4 does not mean that the Russians will shoot the next time, not by itself. The Russians will still be restricted by their own rules of engagement and by political decisions. But this will dramatically affect the US decision-making since from now on there will be no guarantee that the Russians will not shoot either. The Russians basically own the Syrian airspace already. What they want to do next is to give a similar capability to the Syrians. Not only will that allow the Syrians to defend themselves against any future US or Israeli attacks, it will provide the Russians plausible deniabilty the day they decide to shoot down a US aircraft or drone. Finally, the Russians are rushing back some of their most advanced ships towards the Syrian coast. So after giving Trump the benefit of the doubt, the Russians are now returning to a Obama-times like posture in Syria. Bravo Trump, well done!
Yes, I know, Tillerson is expected to meet Lavrov this week. This was discussed ad nauseam on Russian TV and the consensus is that the only reason why the Russians did not cancel this meeting is because they don’t want, on general principle, to be the ones to refuse to speak to the other side. Fine. Considering that we are talking about a potential international thermonuclear war, I can see the point. Still, I would have preferred to say Lavrov telling Tillerson to go and get lost. Why? Because I have come to the conclusion that any and all types of dialog with the United States are simply a meaningless and useless waste of time. For one thing, there is no US policy on anything. Over the past week or so we saw both Nikki Haley and Rex Tillerson completely contradict themselves over and over again: “no we don’t want to overthrow Assad. Yes we do want to overthrow Assad. Yes we do. No we don’t“. This is almost painful and embarrassing to watch. This just goes to show that just like the Obama Administration, the Trump people are “недоговороспособны” or “not agreement capable”. I explain this term in this analysis (written about Obama! Not Trump):
The Russians expressed their total disgust and outrage at this attack and openly began saying that the Americans were “недоговороспособны”. What that word means is literally “not-agreement-capable” or unable to make and then abide by an agreement. While polite, this expression is also extremely strong as it implies not so much a deliberate deception as the lack of the very ability to make a deal and abide by it. For example, the Russians have often said that the Kiev regime is “not-agreement-capable”, and that makes sense considering that the Nazi occupied Ukraine is essentially a failed state. But to say that a nuclear world superpower is “not-agreement-capable” is a terrible and extreme diagnostic. It basically means that the Americans have gone crazy and lost the very ability to make any kind of deal. Again, a government which breaks its promises or tries to deceive but who, at least in theory, remains capable of sticking to an agreement would not be described as “not-agreement-capable”. That expression is only used to describe an entity which does not even have the skillset needed to negotiate and stick to an agreement in its political toolkit. This is an absolutely devastating diagnostic.
This is bad. Really bad. This means that the Russians have basically given up on the notion of having an adult, sober and mentally sane partner to have a dialog with. What this also means is that while remaining very polite and externally poker faced, the Russians have now concluded that they need to simply assume that they need to act either alone or with other partners and basically give up on the United States.
That applies only to the official Kremlin. Independent Russian analysts are not shy about expressing their total contempt and disgust for Trump. Some of them are suggesting that Trump decided to show how “tough” he is in preparation for the Tillerson trip to Moscow. If that is the case, then he is badly miscalculating. For one thing, a lot of them as saying that what Trump has engaged in is “показуха” – a totally fake shows of force which really shows nothing. What is certain is that demonstrations of force are very much frowned upon on the Russian culture which strongly believes that a really tough guy does not have to look the part.
[Sidebar: if John Wayne is the prototypical American hero, Danilo Bagrov, from the movies “Brother” and its sequel “Brother 2” is the prototypical Russian hero: rather shy, softly spoken, of modest means, a times charmingly clumsy and naive, but in reality “the toughest of us all” (as he is called by another character in the sequel (if you have not seen these two movies, I highly recommend them though I don’t know if they exist with English subtitles (dubbing them would be a crime)).
What is sure is that the John Wayne types would never survive in the Russian street, they would be immediately perceived as fake, weak and showing off to try to conceal their lack of strength and they would be crushed and humiliated. Nowadays when Americans adopt what I call the “Delta Force/Blackwater style” (pointy beard, long hair, dark sunglasses, and a ton of muscles etc.) they look comical by Russian standards, Russian special forces (and I have met a lot of them) *never* look the part if only because they try hard not to look it].
Personally I don’t think that impressing the Russians was Trump’s plan. Nor do I believe, like some, that launching that attack during the visit of Chinese Premier Xi was a deliberate affront or some kind of “message”. In fact, I don’t think that there was much of a plan at all beyond showing that Trump is “tough” and no friend of Putin. That’s it. I think that the so-called “elites” in charge running the USA are infinitely arrogant, stupid, uneducated, incompetent and irresponsible. I don’t buy the “managed chaos” theory nor do I buy the notion that if before the Anglo-Zionists imposed their order on others now they impose their dis-order. Yes, that is the consequence of their actions, but it’s not part of some diabolical plan, it is a sign of terminal degeneracy of an Empire which is clueless, frightened, angry and arrogant.
I have already explained in my previous analysis why Trump’s plan to defeat ISIS is a non-starter and I won’t bother repeating it all here. What I will say is that Erdogan’s endorsement of Trump’s attack is equally stupid and self-defeating. I really wonder what Erdogan is hoping to achieve. Not only did the Americans almost kill him in a coup attempt, they are now working on creating a semi-independent Kurdistan right on the border with Turkey. Yes, I know, Erdogan wants to get rid of Assad, fair enough, but does he really believe that Trump will be able to remove Assad from power? And what if Assad is removed, will Turkey really be better off once the Emirate of Takfiristan is declared in Syria? I very much hope that after the referendum Erdogan will recover some sense of reality.
What about the Israelis, do they really believe that dealing with Assad is worse than dealing with this Caliphate of Takfiristan?! But then, we can expect anything from folks with such a long history of making really bad decisions.
Still, it really looks like the all have gone completely insane!
Then there is the embarrassing standing ovation coming out of Europe and the Ukraine. I really am embarrassed for them. They are rejoicing at the attempted removal of one of the last mentally sane and secular regimes in the Middle-East. Don’t these European “leaders” realize that if Syria is replaced by a Caliphate of Takfiristan all hell will really brake loose for Europe? I am amazed at how blind these people are…
Now let’s look at what happened from the point of view of China and the DPRK. First, as I mentioned, I don’t think that Xi felt that the attack during his visit to the USA was a slap or an affront. From another civilized country, maybe. But not from the USA. The Chinese are absolutely under no illusion of the total lack of sophistication and even basic manners of US Presidents. That is not to say that they were not outraged and very concerned. It goes without saying that they also noticed the “coincidence” that The USN has canceled planned port calls in Australia for the USS Carl Vinson and is instead sending the aircraft carrier and attached group towards the Korean Peninsula. They also noticed that this move has been given maximal visibility in the US propaganda machine. One “show of force” in Syria is now followed by another “show of force” in East Asia.
Typical, isn’t it?
If anything, this move will only strengthen the informal but very strong and deep partnership between China and Russia. Just like the Russians, the Chinese will keep on smiling and make very nice statements about international peace and security, negotiations, etc. But everybody who matters in China will understand that the real message of out Washington DC is simple: “now it’s Assad – but you could be next”.
Which leaves the DPRK. I am no mind-reader and no psychologist, but I ask myself the following question: what is worse – if the Americans fail to really scare Kim Jong-un or if they successfully do? I don’t have the answer, but considering the past behavior of the DPRK leaders I would strongly suggest that both scaring them and failing to scare them are very dangerous options. The notion of “scare” should not be included in any policies dealing with the DPRK. But instead of that, the dummies in DC are now leaking a story (whether true or not) that the US intelligence agencies have finalized plans to, I kid you not, “eliminate Kim Jong-un“. And just to make sure that the message gets through, the latest US harpy at the UNSC threatens the DPRK with war.
Have they all really gone totally insane in Washington DC?
Do I really need to explain here why war with the DPRK is a terrible idea, even if it had no nuclear weapons?
Conclusion: what happens next?
Simply reply: I don’t know. But let me explain why I don’t know. In all my years of training and work as a military analyst I have always had to assume that everybody involved was what we called a “rational actor”. The Soviets sure where. As where the Americans. Then, starting with Obama more and more often I had to question that assumption as the US engaged in what appeared to be crazy and self-defeating actions. You tell me – how does deterrence work on a person with no self-preservation instinct (whether as a result of infinite imperial hubris garden variety petty arrogance, crass ignorance or plain stupidity)? I don’t know. To answer that question a what is needed is not a military analyst, but some kind of shrink specializing in delusional and suicidal types.
Some readers might think that this is hyperbole. I assure you that this is not. I am dead serious. Not only do I find the Trump administration “not agreement capable”, I find it completely detached from reality. Delusional in other words. You think Kim Jong-un with nukes is bad? What about Obama or Trump with nukes? Ain’t they much, much scarier?
So what can the world do?
First, the easy answer: the Europeans. They can do nothing. They are irrelevant. They don’t even exist. At least not in the political sense.
Some countries, however, are showing an absolutely amazing level of courage. Look at what the Bolivian representative at the UNSC dared to do:
And what a shame for Europe: a small and poor country like Bolivia showed more dignity that the entire European continent. No wonder the Russians have no respect for the EU whatsoever.
What Bolivia did is both beautiful and noble. But the two countries which really need to step up to the plate are Russia and China. So far, it has been Russia who did all the hard work and, paradoxically, it has been Russia which has been the object of the dumbest and most ungrateful lack of gratitude (especially from armchair warriors). This needs to change. China has many more means to pressure the USA back into some semi-sane mental state than Russia. All Russia has are superb military capabilities. China, in contrast, has the ability to hurt the USA where it really matters: money. Russia is in a pickle: she cannot abandon Syria to the Takfiri crazies, but neither can she go to nuclear war with the USA over Syria. The problem is not Assad. The problem is that he is the only person capable, at least at this point in time, to protect Syria against Daesh. If Assad is removed, Syria falls and Iran is next. Russia absolutely cannot afford to have Iran destroyed by the Anglo-Zionists because after Iran, she will next. Everybody in Russia understands that. But, as I said, the problem with military responses is that they can lead to military escalations which then lead to wars which might turn nuclear very fast. So here is my central thesis:
You don’t want Russia to stop the USA by purely military means as this places the survival of of mankind at risk.
I realize that for some this might be counter-intuitive, but remember that deterrences only works with rational actors. Russia has already done a lot, more than everybody else besides Iran. And if Russia is not the world’s policeman, neither is she the world savior. The rest of mankind also needs to stop being a silent bystander and actually do something!
Russia and China can stop the US, but they need to do that together. And for that, Xi needs to stop acting like a detached smiling little Buddha statue and speak up loud and clear. That is especially true since the Americans show even less fear of China than of Russia.
[Sidebar: the Chinese military is still far behind the kind of capabilities Russia has, but the Chinese are catching up really, really fast. Just 30 years ago the Chinese military used to be outdated and primitive. This is not the case today. The Chinese have done some tremendous progress in a record time and their military is now a totally different beast than what it used to be. I have no doubt at all that the US cannot win a war with China either, especially not anywhere near the Chinese mainland. Furthermore, I expect the Chinese to go full steam ahead with a very energetic military modernization program which will allow them to close the gap with the USA and Russia in record time. So any notions of the USA using force against China, be it over Taiwan or the DPRK, is an absolutely terrible idea, sheer madness. However, and maybe because the Americans believe their own propaganda, it seems to me like the folks in DC think that we are in the 1950s or 1960 and that they can terrify the “Chinese communist peasants” with their carrier battle groups. What the fail to realize is that with every nautical mile the US carriers make towards China, the bigger and easier target they make for a military which has specialized in US carrier destruction operatons. The Americans ought to ask themselves a simple question: what will they do if the Chinese either sink or severely damage one (or several) US Navy carriers? Go to nuclear war with a nuclear China well capable of turning many US cities into nuclear wastelands? Really? You would trade New York or San Francisco for the Carl Vinson Strike Group? Think again.]
So far China has been supporting Russia, but only from behind Russia. This is very nice and very prudent, but Russia is rapidly running out of resources. If there was a sane man in the White House, one who would never ever do something which might result in war with Russia, that would not be a problem. Alas, just like Obama before him, Trump seems to think that he can win a game of nuclear chicken against Russia. But he can’t. Let me be clear he: if pushed into a corner the Russian will fight, even if that means nuclear war. I have said this over and over again, there are two differences between the Americans and the Russians
- The Russians are afraid of war. The Americans are not.
- The Russians are ready for war. The Americans are not.
The problem is that every sign of Russian caution and every Russian attempt to de-escalate the situation (be it in the Ukraine, with Turkey or in Syria) has always been interpreted by the West as a sign of weakness. This is what happens when there is a clash between a culture which places a premium on boasting and threatening and one which believes in diplomacy and negotiations.
[Sidebar. The profound cultural differences between the USA and Russia are perfectly illustrated with the polar difference the two countries have towards their most advanced weapons systems. As soon as the Americans declassify one of their weapon systems they engage into a huge marketing campaign to describe it as the “bestest of the bestest” “in the world” (always, “in the world” as if somebody bothered to research this or even compare). They explain at length how awesome their technology is and how invincible it makes them. The perfect illustration is all the (now, in retrospect, rather ridiculous) propaganda about stealth and stealth aircraft. The Russians do the exact opposite. First, they try to classify it all. But then, when eventually they declassify a weapons system, they strenuously under-report its real capabilities even when it is quite clear that the entire planet already knows the truth! There have been any instances when Soviet disarmament negotiators knew less about the real Soviet capabilities than their American counterparts! Finally, when the Russian export their weapons systems, they always strongly degrade the export model, at least that was the model until the Russians sold the SU-30MKI to India which included thrust vectoring while the Russian SU-30 only acquired later with the SU-30SM model, so this might be changing. Ask yourself: did you ever hear about the Russian Kalibr cruise missile before their first use in Syria? Or did you know that Russia has had nuclear underwater missiles since the late 1970s capable of “flying under water” as speeds exceeding 230 miles per hour?]
Russia is in a very difficult situation and a very bad one. And she is very much alone. European are cowards. Latin Americans have more courage, but no means to put pressure on the USA. India hopes to play both sides. Japan and the ROK are US colonies. Australia and New Zealand belong to the ECHELON/FIVE EYES gang. Russia has plenty of friends in Africa, but they more or less all live under the American/French boot. Iran has already sacrificed more than any other country and taken the biggest risks. It would be totally unfair to ask the Iranians to do more. The only actor out there who can do something in China. If there is any hopes to avoid four more years of “Obama-style nightmare” it is for China to step in and tell the US to cool it.
In the meantime Russia will walk a very fine like between various bad options. Her best hope, and the best hope of the rest of mankind, is that the US elites become so involved into fighting each other that this will leave very little time to do any foreign policy. Alas, it appears that Trump has “figured out” that one way to be smart (or so he thinks) in internal politics is to do something dumb in external politics (like attack Syria). That won’t work.
Maybe an impeachment of Trump could prove to be a blessing in disguise. If Mike Pence becomes President, he and his Neocons will have total power again and they won’t have to prove that they are tough by doing stupid and dangerous things? Could President Pence be better than President Trump? I am afraid that it might. Especially if that triggers a deep internal crisis inside the USA.
The next four years will be terrible, I am sorry to say. Our next hope – however thin – for somebody sane in the White House might be for 2020. Maybe Tulsi Gabbard will run on a campaign promise of peace and truly draining the swamp? Maybe “America first” will mean something if Gabbard says it? Right now she seems to be pretty much the only one refusing the accept the “Assad did it” nonsense. So maybe she can provide the mix of peace and progressive social policies so many Americans really want? Maybe she could become the first woman President for all the right, rather then wrong, reasons. I don’t know. 2020 is still very, very far away, let’s just hope we all make it to that date before some imbecile in DC decides that war with Russia is a good idea.
What is certain is that the Democrat vs. Republican and Conservative vs Liberal dichotomy only serves to perpetuate a system which manages to betray the values of BOTH the Left and the Right. This is paradoxical because it is pretty darn clear that most Americans want their country to be at peace, to stop being constantly at war, and with civilized social and labor standards. Sure, the hardcore libertarians still believe that laisser-faire is a great solution, even if that hands all the power to corporations and even if that leaves the individual citizen defenseless against the oligarchy. But bet you that even hardcore libertarians would prefer “statism” (as they would say) with peace than “statism” with war. Likewise, many hardcore progressives want to severely limit the freedoms of many Americans (small business entrepreneurs, gun owners), but even they would prefer peace without rules and regulations than war without rules and regulations. So I think that the possibly unifying platform could be expressed in the notion of “peace and civil rights”. That is something which the vast majority of Americans can agree upon. Even the Black Lives Matter folks should agree to that kind of “peace and civil rights platform”. That, I think, ought to be the priority of the Federal government – dismantle the war machine and dismantle the state repression machine: a full pull-out of US forces deployed worldwide combined with a full restoration of civil and human rights as they were before the 9/11 false flag. And let the States deal with all the other issues.
Alas, I am afraid that the plutocracy in power will never allow that. The way the crushed Trump in one month tells me that they will do that to anybody who is not one of their own. So while hope is always a good thing, and while I like dreaming of a better future, I am not holding my breath. I find a sudden and brutal collapse of the Anglo-Zionist Empire followed by a break-up of the USA (as described here) far more likely.
We better prepare ourselves for some very tough times ahead.
Our only consolation is that all the dramatic events taking place right now in the USA are signs of weakness. The US elites are turning on each other and while the Neocons have broken Trump, this will not stop the fratricidal war inside the US plutocracy. Look at the big picture, at how the empire is cracking at every seam and remember that all this is taking place because we are winning.
Imperialism will die, discredited and hated by all those who will have to live through the upcoming collapse of the US-based AngloZionist Empire. Hopefully this time it will be the last empire in history and mankind will have learned its lesson (it would be about time!).
A very thoughtful analysis that everyone should read.Thank you.
Your discussion of the missing missiles, if correct, has some interesting implications. It is also the single most important aspect of your rejection of the theory that this attack was entirely a show, a theory many Trump supporters still hopefully (can’t blame them) cling to.
On Flynn: I have no use for that monster at all. Actually I have no use for the whole cadre of generals of which he is apart none of whom had the courage to disobey illegal orders. Still your point on how Trump will sell out anyone strikes home.
And I have no problem with the length.
“Just 30 years ago the Chinese military used to be outdated and primitive”.
And yet look what they did to the Americans in Korea, 60 years ago! When they were still struggling to recover from the terrible scars of WW2. The Yanks, much to their surprise, found themselves struggling to hold a draw.
OT: as nobody reads old threads, I’m reposting this here, with minor edits.
@Hoyeru, who claims the USA can overwhelm the RF by printing money.
Nope. Money printing by the US is a tax on the rest of the world, which means that the taxed will do their utmost to get out from under. Which means that as time goes by the US will have to spend exponentially more and more on its military to keep the lid on the ever rising pressure against its thievery. For how long can the US outmuscle the whole world combined? Not long at all.
And meanwhile, Russia only has to defend itself, which will be far cheaper.
In other words, if we’re in a financial fight, the US will crack far sooner than Russia — and I’m not even factoring in the value of the help that China can give to its northern neighbor.
“How a guy like him ever made in business is a mystery to me,”
[Trump’s father, big in New York real estate] [Fred C] “Trump made charitable contributions to the Long Island Jewish Hospital, and to the Hospital for Special Surgery in Manhattan … Fred Trump supported Jewish and Israeli causes and institutions, including his donation of the land for building the Beach Haven Jewish Center in Flatbush, New York, and significant support for Israel Bonds, debt securities that trade at a risk-adjusted spread to U.S. Treasury bonds and are issued by the government of Israel. … Fred Trump suffered from Alzheimer’s disease for six years. He fell ill with pneumonia in June 1999 and was admitted to Long Island Jewish Medical Center in New Hyde Park, where he died at age 93 a few weeks later. Trump’s estate was estimated by his family at $250 million to $300 million.”
I guess inheriting a fair share of £300 million helps, along with connections in New York real estate business.
Thank you for your brilliant analysis which is second to none! I add my following thoughts for what they are worth.
I fear that something far more sinister is afoot than even you have postulated. Over multiple Presidents the quality of our military has steadily declined and morale is at its lowest since Vietnam. Additionally numerous Generals and other senior military leaders have been sacked especially regarding our nuclear forces. In the meantime Russia and maybe China have certainly equaled and very likely surpassed our military prowess. At the same time most of our leadership has been bought and paid for and are as dumb as bricks (Tulsi Gabbard and a few others excluded). Additionally the MSM rivals Nazi Germany and the former Soviet Union for propaganda. So if we might be headed for nuclear war the question becomes nobody wins, that’s crazy?
Well yes and no. There is a well known saying that when a gambler starts looking for “who’s the mark” they quickly learn they are the mark. I believe there are various levels of “elite”. You have multi millionaires that may or may not be in the game. You have billionaires and multi-billionaires who almost assuredly are in the game and then you have the top human elites (also know as the Cabal or NWO). Not to get too far out there but I believe their are forces way beyond them but let’s not go down the rabbit hole too far just yet.
So, I believe the billionaires, political and media elites have been sold a plan by the top dogs that “war” even a limited “nuclear war” is planned to implode the world economy for a one world order. However, I think they have been fooled and are “marks” just like the rest of us. I think that the USA has been targeted as the sacrificial lamb including our moron elites and what may or may not be left will be the NWO. However, I also believe that there is high risk for miscalculation and the top elites may also be “marks” without realizing it and the end of humanity will result as a result of this miscalculation. I am not religious but am very spiritual and the elites do like to play their little “date” games. Trump probably fired the opening shot of WW3 with his attack on Syria on the hundredth anniversary of WW1. Now we are in arguably the most religious part of the year for numerous religions including Judaism, Christianity and Islam. Also, all of Congress has now recessed for two weeks for the holiday (probably headed to their bunkers). Whether I am wrong (and part of me certainly hopes I am) or right betwen NK and Syria it certainly appears that something “wicked this way come” whether now or very, very soon.
Thanks and my blessings to all.
While I cannot take any substantial position against what Saker has written, I can offer this: There was opposition to the Yugoslavia attacks…
(” Tell me, how many peace demonstrations were there in the USA about the totally illegal US aggression on Yugoslavia? Exactly. QED.”)
I was working at that time for the goodfellas at a US base, and we had both bomb threats and a briefing where we were told to be on guard, as a military vehicle had been set afire…
I freely admit that such minor matters are trivial, but they did happen…not all murkinz are criminals – mostly they’re afraid… and not of Syria or Russia… They live in a police state – and they have done for a long time, who would demonstrate when they have no power?
I lived in Atlanta during the Clintons’ war in Yugoslavia.
I distinctly remember protests. It was probably the usual crowd of us that went to such events. And of course they were not widely reported. But I was in Atlanta protests at the start of every war until I left after Dubya’s Iraq War protests.
Wonderful, brilliant analysis
Thank you, from London
All internal power tussle:
couple of other precursors to the 59 missiles
1. Nunes resigned from Trump tower wiretapping scandal
2. Pending Govt shutdown due to debt ceiling deadline approaching!
All Putin should do as Saker you have pointed out at number of occasions
DO NOT GIVE AMERICANS A WAR, WHICH THEY WANT ALL THE TIME.
This war is especially necessary when American economy is heading south. Albeit they want to take the whole world down with them.
It’s even worse than most of us thought….
Ordered Censored by Trump: Swedish Medical Associations Says White Helmets Murdered Kids for Fake Gas Attack Videos
“President Trump is now threatening to take America into a war against Syria, Iran and even Russia, a war he says is justified by “evidence” he has received from the Syrian White Helmets. We will prove beyond any doubt that this is a “Deep State” organization, a melding of CIA, al Qaeda and Britain’s intelligence services. We now have “slam dunk” proof that Trump and the “fake news” MSM are and always have been in lockstep, playing us all.”
Thank you Saker for another extensive analysis.
Let us hope that the ‘Neo’ formula is resisted deep inside the RF because Simple Simon has a much shorter observation/explanation based on his experiences, follow it through to see for yourselves….
– “Everything Zionism touches, it destroys. Everything.” –
Thats all, simple and succinct, but the same, to different degrees, could be said of all rigid orthodoxies, or why the Wahhabi’s have been put to work.
On another matter for which the RF is being blamed on the Western ‘street’…. https://twitter.com/epsVIII/status/851692693675802624
Some time ago, when the affair of W2 in the Pacific was being celebrated in history, a marine veteran wrote of John Wayne visiting them on some stupid island many had died for. Johnny did his thing on stage for a bit – until the marines threw him off the stage for being such a phony….
Raygun was a fake too.
the phonies are obvious after combat
nobody likes them
I will watch the movie. Some old americans may see in Ivan what they used to see in themselves…
“Hopefully this time it will be the last empire in history and mankind will have learned its lesson”
Are you really that anxious for Christ’s return and the end of the world, Saker?
Very important news coming from Russia today:
Russia Has Intel on Upcoming Chemical Weapons Provocations in Syrian Regions
“Russia has intelligence from “trusted sources” that chemical weapons provocations are currently being prepared in more regions in Syria, including Damascus, Russian President Vladimir Putin said after talks with Italian counterpart Sergio Mattarella Tuesday.
“We have information from various sources that such provocations — and I cannot call them anything else — are being prepared in other regions of Syria, including in the southern suburbs of Damascus, where they intend to plant some substance and blame the official Syrian authorities for its use,” Putin told a briefing.
Russian President Putin announced that Russia will officially turn to the UN in the Hague for an investigation of the chemical weapons’ use in Idlib.
“We discussed the situation with President [ of Italy Sergio Mattarella] and I told him that these events strongly resemble the events of 2003,” Putin said at a briefing, outlining the prelude to the US intervention in Iraq.
Following Putin’s presser, Russian General Staff released a statement announcing that it has information of militants bringing poisonous substances to areas of Khan Shaykhun, West of Aleppo and Eastern Guta in Syria.
Chief of the Russian General Staff Main Operational Directorate Col. Gen. Sergei Rudskoy said that the militants are trying to provoke new accusations targeted at Syrian government for alleged use of chemical weapons. The militants aim to incite the US to conduct new strikes, Rudskoy warned, adding that such measures are impermissible.
Rudskoy is obviously pulling his punches saying the terrorists are behind the plan, since Putin makes it clear israeloamerica is running this. By comparing the current situation with the WMD fraudulent pretext for the Iraq war, Putin makes it very clear he thinks israeloamerica is working a similar strategy against Syria now.
Russian General Staff Warns Against New US Missile Strikes on Syria
“Moscow warns against new US missile strikes on Syria, chief of the Russian General Staff’s Main Operational Directorate Col. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi said at a news briefing on Tuesday.
The general reiterated that the Syrian army does not possess chemical weapons, while the remaining two chemical weapons production and storage facilities in Syria are located on the territory controlled by the so-called armed opposition groups.”
This article has more detail and a summary of the WMD false flag that already took place.
This article from RT has more of what Putin said.
Idlib ‘chemical attack’ was false flag to set Assad up, more may come – Putin
I want to stress that Putin does not make statements about things unless he has the facts. He is not a scare monger. He doesn’t exaggerate.
Putin is about legalism and facts.
The Russians have deep Intel inside Syria. They triple check targets and have been extremely free of mistakes for their massive aerial attacks.
They have Syria, Iranian shiite, Hezbollah, Chechen, Quds and Chinese Intel resources on the ground, besides their own SVR and GRU sources, SIGINT and ELINT.
Putin speaks when he has the facts.
The fact that the attack violated the UN Charter automatically means that it violated the US Consitiution. There is wording called the “Supremecy Clause” which says that all treaties the US signs and ratifies become the highest law in the land ranking equal to the US Constitution. The UN Charter has been signed and ratified by the US President and Senate. So, a violation of the UN Charter is the same as a violation of the US Constitution.
This has been a standard part of the impeachment arguments against George W. Bush and Barrack Obama for some time now.
LOL … actually, I kinda liked and had some respect for Mr. Bannon, and didn’t really like Gen. Flynn.
Somewhere, I think it was either on this site or on a friendly one to it that I saw a transcript of Mr. Bannon speaking at a Vatican Conference. In a lot of ways, he sounds like Bernie Sanders. The rhetoric is different, left and right use different words and sometimes concepts. But the core of his argument is that while American corporations used to show some sort of Christian Values, they are now immoral. That they need to be encouraged or forced to return to showing some value in society and not just raping and pillaging everything for profit.
Besides, I like smart people and Mr. Bannon seemed smart.
In concert with the continuous staging of false flag atrocities, the israeloamericans have steadily increasing their forces and operations against Syria. The latter being done incrementally in small steps to keep this build up quiet and under the public perception radar.
US Eyes Tabqa Air Base as Turkey Sours on Washington’s Ties to Kurds
“Speaking on condition of anonymity, a highly placed representative of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) told Sputnik Turkey that American engineers are currently working at a military base in the Syrian town of Tabqa so that its airfield could be used during an operation to liberate Raqqa, the self-proclaimed capital of the terrorist group Daesh (ISIS/ISIL).
The interview came after there were media reports that the US sent a group of engineers to the military base in Tabqa, which was recently liberated from Daesh terrorists, to deal with conducting construction and repair work there.
“Currently, a group of 20 American engineers is working to restore the operation of the Tabqa base, which is expected to be open in the next 20 days. We, for our part, are trying to liberate the nearby villages from Daesh in order to ensure the safety of the base,” the representative said.”
I think it was back when Bill Clinton was launching strikes on Iraq, but there were stories that the Iraqis had the ability to try to misdirect cruise missile guidance. It seems like it related to spooking/shifting the GPS guidence in such a way that the missiles landed offset to the target. I presume the Iraqis would have gotten such a system from the Soviets.
The primary vulnerability is the altimeter, although if a gps guidance system were used it would be jammed. Obviously machine would then go off course even if the INS worked with zero error. There may also be magnetic gate compass inputs – and those would be simple to spoof. There are also Coriolis effects that may not be properly accounted for, and tidal forces – yes, it matters where and when, and which way and how fast and how high and over what…everything, just about, matters when one is trying to thread the eye of a needle from 1000 km…especially wind…
I used to think the decline of the US was a re-run of the fall of the Roman Empire.
Now I realize I was wrond. The decline of the US is a re-run of the fall of the Ottoman empire. Schizophrenic.
yt has movie w/ st in eng lang
I agree with fundamental hypothesis that outcome depends on Russ mind, on value other than finance.
I do, too. And thank you for the movie link. Looks like a good one.
To me it seems as it the US has pushed Russia and China together. You talk about how the Russians tend to underplay strategic capabilities. And Chinese are known for being hard to read.
My guess is that the relations between them are better than they show the world.
For one thing, both would see the same argument you used about Iran … If Russia goes, the Chinese know they are next. I’m thinking that both clearly see that if it comes to a fight, they are better off fighting together at the same time than being picked off one after the other.
We seem to see this in their actions. The Chinese seem at times to try to act quietly and avoid the wrath of the insane crowd in DC. Russia has seemed to just accept that the insane crowd in DC is always going to be mad at them. But, notice in Syria that the two are working together. They split task between Russian military tasks, but the Chinese have made some large comittments to help rebuild Syria which would help support the Syrian economy. The Chinese do so quietly, but they are there playing an important role alongside the Russians.
I haven’t completed the article yet but, this comment stood out:
The Russians are afraid of war. The Americans are not.
The Russians are ready for war. The Americans are not.
As an American I can state for a fact that most of our people right down to the corner bully are all bluster. They strut and curse and carry their big guns just to look like big shots. They believe violence is the only way to solve a disagreement. Just look at our entertainment industry for proof. What’s even more disgusting is; way too many Americans believe in NOTHING except their houses, cars, sports ball, iPhones and keeping up with the Jones’s.
Comment sections are filled with armchair warriors and diplomats rooting for war and the defeat of ‘our enemies’ du jour. Outside of our veterans Americans are clueless as to the destructive effect of war. None of our cities have endured sieges, 24 hour bombing raids, rape and murder on an industrial scale, starvation, disease, pestilence and the utter carnage wrought by an all out conflict.
The Russians on the other hand well, readers of this site are aware of it’s history. Until Americans come out of their love of mammon and lust for power things I’m afraid will not improve. Along with the Europeans, the US is decadent.
I think I have a pretty unique perspective on Americans. I’m not one, but I’ve lived most of my life in the US. I’ve worked in 15 or 20 states for months at a time, knocking on doors (cold calling) for a social marketing thing. I meet business owners and front counter staff, then building managers and occasionally the plumber. Significantly, they’re are strangers to me upon my arrival.
Almost 100% of the people I meet are not pro-war. They are 100% awake to the garbage going on in DC, no one–literally no one–actually believes the lies. Check out the cable subscription rates over the last couple years. ESPN alone has lost 1/3 of its viewers since 2014, CNN is an outright disaster. Since the election, I’ve engaged in open dialogue with clients and strangers about the travesty that is DC. On that, everyone can agree to the extent that its become safe to make prying-eye cracks with the school principal in front of her staff or express hope that the russians don’t bomb us for poisoning kids in flint.
People in America are wanting to grow their own vegetables, to leave the city for country life. Few can afford it, but everyone wants and openly talks about wanting to have that back door. They are not naieve to the games played by big corp and most certainly not rooting for war. The connection between government bombings overseas and terror attacks here is crystal clear to mostly everyone in every state of the union. Wikileaks broke the back of the few hold outs for the democratic party, and I think trump just destroyed what little was left of the republicans. Government support in the US is literally broken completely.
Anyone with access to honest polling does not remotely think they’re going to rally the American people around some kind of foreign war.
Fool me once…
I compare the situation in America with the pre-collapse Soviet Union. Well, what I imagined I saw.
People are almost universally aware that something is wrong with the system. I don’t know if 100% are anti-war, but a substantial majority are. Most people are aware that, like George Carlin said, “Its all one big club, and you aren’t in it”.
But, people don’t feel there’s anything they can do about it. Even when their used to be protests, they seemed powerless and ineffectual. Marching around a closed city on a Sunday isn’t going to change the world.
But, what I think I saw from a distance in the Soviet Union was that when people got even a whiff of change. When people saw they could go to a protest and not be hurt, killed or arrested, then the crowds grew with each event and soon there were a million people in the street.
American seems to have been in a similar spot for awhile now. People keep their heads down and get along from day to day. But when there is a whiff of change in the air, they come into the streets.
— The Obama campaign in 08 got a huge response. Yes, Obama was a conman. But the reaction of the American people to someone promising Change and Hope was for real.
— The Occupy movement. People came out for those protests and they drew big crowds. Where I was, people showed up in cars to donate supplies to the campers, and the lines of cars went around the block. Then the state crushed those protests with both their internal and external methods, the last being the sending in of the riot troopers.
— The Trump campaign was another. Yep, he’s looking like another charlatan. But the people were given what was supposed to be a clear choice between more neocon madness and the Trump campaign, and the people went for Trump.
America seems to be stocked with dry timber waiting for a match. They’ve been fooled by conmen. The Occupy movement was shut down because it was looking dangerous. The dry timber is there waiting for a spark. When people feel that coming out can lead to change, they’ll come out. Until then, they keep their heads down, have to work two jobs to survive, and want to stay under the radar of the police state.
This is good to read, but then, how do they staff their terrorist military and their many spying and terror agencies? Some people argue it’s basically all the Jews’ fault, but then it doesn’t seem to me that they fill the rank and files of their army and navy or air force with Jews. And often, when I hear US military personnel statements, I am reminded of dehumanized robots that just do their job and never wonder how thousands of miles away from home, by bombing other nations, they’d be “defending” their homeland.
over the noise of the barnyard chickens I myself have listened to essentially illiterate goat ranchers discuss the demolition of the towers in NYC – and this was years ago – and they were in agreement that it was a professional inside job with thermite and thermate and hacked autopilots, etc. . This is a problem for some parties, and with every discharged and betrayed veteran they pile the debts higher and more dangerously – because they know what they’re seeing.
I wonder though; Given that the people of the US are beaten down, brainwashed, cautious cowards, looking over their shoulder all the time for what the Tyranny of the Majority is dictating, can they be trusted to ever tell the truth?
In other words, if I knocked on the door a few hours later and gently told them that it is about time ‘America kicked ass’, how do you know they would not heartily agree?
It helps, or hinders, that their attention span has now been engineered to be so short, that every time they blink it is a new day.
Americans have always struck me as people who do not actually believe anything from day to day.
As I stated at the top of this thread American’s idea of liberty is money and mammon. When the state begins to take their houses, SUV’s, iPhones and PC games away they’ll revolt.
A joint US-Russia oil deal worth a trillion dollars per year is pending. Therefore, I sense that Putin green-lighted the limited US missile attack on Syria. Russia even was to have said to Tillerson that its treaty with Syria was not without exception.
This phase of ending the Greater Israel Plan, and its insane man bluff of the Samson Option, is for the USA and Russia to become energy interdependent and thus independent of Middle Eastern oil.
Israel wants the US dependent on Middle Eastern oil in order to mask its expansionist Oded Yinon Plan as American Big Oil imperialism. This allows a crypto-Zionist Jewish Left to continue to destroy America within while protecting Israel from blame for the PNAC wars against the seven nations.
The ONLY reason the US is in the region is because World Jewry has big plans for the destruction of its allies. The ethnic cleansing of Greater Israel relies on the West absorbing 200 million Muslim refugees. This is the End Goal. Hence, the US defense of Israel pledge must also have exceptions.
Actually, there are still media sources in the US that refer to Trump as a Putin agent.
This is the theory that Trump and Putin somehow colluded on a ‘fake’ attack in Syria. The people who combine the notice given to the Russian military (a wise move to avoid WW3), with the relatively unimportant damage done to the airfield (well, those who loved the ones who died think the damage was important.)
They combine these with the never-ending “Trump is a Putin agent” theme to say that Trump deliberately attacked an unimportant target and didn’t do much real damage (actually, that’s pretty much the history of airfield strikes … they are hard to seriously damage for a long-time. Amazing how quick a bulldozer can fill a hole in a runway.)
China is not idle, Saker. For instance, the standoff in the South China Sea is undoubtedly drawing some American focus from Russia.
Then consider the hundreds of billions of $ in gas agreements. China did not have to do that; the money flowing to Russia would probably have been better spent on nuclear power plants in China.
There’s also OBOR, which will strengthen Russia hugely.
In the longer view, the Chinese will be doing most of the heavy lifting in the overthrow of the Anglo Zionist empire. Russia may have spent a few $billion in Syria, but China will be spending $trillions to break the US’s financial stranglehold on the world.
I would be interested in learning what else you think the Chinese can realistically do. They have a huge military, it’s true, but as you have said yourself, sheer size is not as important as ability to show up for a fight — and China simply hasn’t enough logistical capability (yet). Is something else a possibility?
The Democrats are a fake opposition. We’ve seen that time and time again.
I think the Democrats play a game where certain people are allowed to be a ‘spokesperson’ for some popular cause or another. So, they stand up and make bold statements about their cause.
Think Warren on banking and finance
Think Wyden on civil liberties and spying.
Gabbord on military and war is the latest.
The key is that these people all stay in their box and only talk about their allowed issues. On other issues, they join the Dem pro-corporate, pro-war, pro-bank, pro-spying party line. Which means when it comes to a vote and the token opponent on that topic is easily out-voted.
For instance, I don’t think you’d see Elizabeth Warren support Rep Gabbord on this issue.
The Dems find it useful to stage such fake opposition to gain public support. But don’t make the mistake of thinking that its real or meaningful. Its just a show to keep the masses from deserting the bankers and neocons that are the ruling core of the party.
The greatest security risk with Trump and those driving him are the unintended consequences of his actions and threats, not being first considered and gamed out. His actions on North Korea can have no outcome except to strengthen Kim, and make it obvious that China is the only possible solution to that problem.
And if Trump’s neocons were silly enough to follow through on any action regarding Kim, the known possible consequences would have been thought worth the risk, i.e. the would decided to gamble on the lives of South Koreans and Japanese.
Bannon would be better served opting out of the Trump administration if Trump is still going to driven by neocon agendas.
Well, at least Trumpkins doesn’t have that ghoul, Henry Kissinger, to turn to – or maybe he does?
Four US interests: 1. Economics – The empire is going broke and must steal gold, oil, and banks from others as it has in Libya, Ukraine, Iraq, and intends to do in Syria. 2. Commitment to world hegemony 3. Creation of Greater Israel with union of 12 fake tribes to include Islam, because 4. Saudi’s and Gulf States own US stock market and European banks. These have nothing to do with US security. They are all causes of aggression. Sadly, that is how capitalism has always worked – steal from others to save yourselves from debt.
You need to mention North Korean submarines. NK is designed to be like Israel who “probably” attacked China with Dolphin subs. I understand they are nuclear capable and off the coasts of CA, Japan, and South Korea.
A formidable analysis by all standards. I wish to hope that Europeans (the people at least) are not a hopeless case. There is some potential in Germany and France for a saner foreign policy towards Russia.
You’re a great military analyst but you’re neither a businessman nor a politician. In six to nine months, every party will be around a negotiating table and a final resolution will result. That is what this bogus response to a bogus attack was about– putting the parties in a position to negotiate.
1. Assad flushed with victory is on notice that he must retire as the savior of his nation and be replaced by a gov’t that is to some degree a coalition;
2. Putin is in a tough position because his dreams of detente with the US and joint efforts against the Islamists are now dependent on resolving this situation to Trump’s liking;
3. Trump is now having a free hand to negotiate an arms length resolution with Putin that before now, he could not because of the collusion canard.
Wait and see. This is being handled via a paradigm we haven’t seen in our lifetimes.
An editorial on Trump & Syria at Gizadeathstar is blocked by gogle’s denying a connection to the site. But you can read it @
I don’t buy the “managed chaos” theory nor do I buy the notion that if before the Anglo-Zionists imposed their order on others now they impose their dis-order. Yes, that is the consequence of their actions, but it’s not part of some diabolical plan, it is a sign of terminal degeneracy of an Empire which is clueless, frightened, angry and arrogant.
This is an interesting opinion on America’s managed chaos doctrine, but it contradicts what even Russian leaders like Sergei Lavrov have asserted:
“The concept of managed chaos appeared long ago as a method of strengthening US influence. Its basic premise is that managed chaos projects should be launched away from the United States in regions that are crucial for global economic and financial development. The Middle East has always been in the focus of politicians and foreign policy engineers in Washington. Practice has shown that this concept is dangerous and destructive, in particular for the countries where the experiment was launched, namely Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan…In Iraq, Syria and Libya, this chaos was created intentionally.
…Responsible politicians have come to see that the managed chaos theory is destroying life in many regions. Some parties can benefit in the short term from fluctuations on the raw materials markets provoked by the revolutions orchestrated by external forces, but this theory ultimately backfires at its engineers and executors in the form of massive migration inflows, which terrorists use to enter these countries. We can see this in Europe. Terrorist attacks have been staged even in the United States. The Atlantic Ocean has not protected it from the terrorist threat. This is the boomerang effect.” (Lavrov)
The Impending Clash Between the U.S. and Russia
There is a reason why people like Pedro Escobar (whose work is posted on this website) call America the Empire of Chaos.
This was quite an article. Thanks for all the work done to publish this article.
This is a really good piece, I think. Two points where I would correct:
1) Russia should have given Syria the means to defend its airspace long ago. They have promised such means in the past and failed to deliver, or if they did deliver, refused to allow Syria to actually use them. There is no reason, I would say, to believe that Russia will follow through on the latest promise. Should they? Hell yes. They should make it so in record time. But I think it’s not reasonable to believe that they will.
2) … which brings me to my second point. Dear God, anyone living today who is a sincere and intelligent observer of world events and of the US role in world events who doesn’t see that the US misleadership (and whoever is the real deep state leadership behind it) is wedded to a theory of global rule whose central principle is creating controlled chaos … well God help you. I hope you see the light. The reason for this US elite fascination with spreading controlled chaos, I think, is that chaos breaks down the potential for the kind of human solidarity that would put a stop to the global chokehold of the Hegemon. It’s a glorified, horri-fried version of the theory of divide and conquer.
3) This brings me to my third point, which is an extension of the point made in the article at the end. I think that both in the US and globally, there is a real possibility for transformational (in a good way ) change. Saker hints at it here. The division between the Left and the Right is probably the central pillar of the elites’ divide and conquer strategy. As long as they can keep lefties and righties at each others’ throats, the Deep State, the oligarchs, can rule. I hope that today, more and more, lefties and righties are beginning to understand that they have a lot in common. They may even be able to work through their differences.
I wish more Lefties would be willing to believe that not all Righties are racists. I wish more Righties would be willing to believe that not all Lefties are raging collectivists. One would think that the alt-left and the alt-right would get it by now that they have a lot in common. Maybe we could work through the differences? We should take a hint from the establishment lefties and righties – you can’t slide a sheet of paper between, say, Barack Obama and George Bush. Those guys absolutely know they are on the same team. Why can’t the alt-left and alt-right take a clue from this? It’s time we stopped hating each other and started really talking to each other. It might be hard at first, but if we keep trying, we can maybe break through our differences in ways that make sense to folks on both sides and lead to better political ideas.
MOST PEOPLE AGREE ON MOST THINGS! They just don’t know it because we have been taught to take falsely opposite sides on virtually all issues. But most people want peace, not war. Most people want banks and corporations to have reasonable power, not overweening power, and they want them to be true to their fundamental commitments to serve the community. Most people want fair trade deals, not ones that wreck local economies everywhere. Most people want a society which leaves plenty of room for competition, and plenty of incentive, but which also makes sure that everyone is taken care of. Most people want government to be strong enough to promote social cohesion and peace, but not intrusive, oppressive, dominating. Deconstruction of opposition between Left and Right can be taken to the level of specific issues. For example, most people want both fewer abortions AND choice. The notion that we have to choose between abortion and choice is really crazy. We want both – less abortion and more choice.
We need a progressive populist movement and I believe one can happen, but the alt-Left and alt-Right need to start talking to each other.
This is a big issue to get into, but the problem is basically that both the alt-left and alt-right understand what is going to happen in America, but they disagree about what it’s an opportunity for.
The alt-left thinks that now is the chance for atheist socialist government. Trump crumbles and a fair society will arise. Unfortunately this involves destroying any semblance of old moral order, but that is a necessary price to pay. (I don’t believe this is possible in America.)
The alt-right disagrees with that on metaphysical grounds: that socialism renders all people equal, but not all people are equal in reality. But how should a fair society be built without equality? Russia has the right answer: a pluralist society grounded in traditional religious values. The alt right has no consensus on what premodern values are traditional and good, and what are mistaken modernisms. Some in the alt right are religious, but their spokespeople are mostly nonreligious. They have no unified vision. The most extreme among them are not really a political movement but a death cult, exemplified by their self-appointed chief philosopher Nick Land.
Truth is not to be found in either group, in my opinion. They have a lot of the facts, and that is good, but your opinions must remain your own.
What is coming in America? I would like to hear the Saker’s opinion. I see a great danger of dark things after the government falls. But most Americans are good people.
Outstanding overview, Saker — as always. Thank you.
Russia is in a pickle: she cannot abandon Syria to the Takfiri crazies, but neither can she go to nuclear war with the USA over Syria. The problem is not Assad. The problem is that he is the only person capable, at least at this point in time, to protect Syria against Daesh. If Assad is removed, Syria falls and Iran is next. Russia absolutely cannot afford to have Iran destroyed by the Anglo-Zionists because after Iran, she will next. Everybody in Russia understands that.
Consider it possible, as I do, that Jim Stone has put his finger on what is at the root of this : “Right now there is so much going on that it is hard to sort it out. But one thing is still easy to say: It is awful damning that Syria, Iran, and North Korea are slated for destruction, and the thing they have in common is no Rothchild owned central bank. That says it all. The motive for everything can be known with that one simple fact.”
Possibly Russia is just annoying them by being “in their way” ?
IMO, the borderline-suicidal “double down” pattern is an identifier. It shows up in Palestine even before 1948 and has continued up to today.
This is however bad things are heartwarming to me. A clear voice and eagle eye perspective, something I deeply realize and could not put in words. Thank you soo much.
The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has confirmed that 10 out of 12 Syrian chemical weapons plants are no longer functional. The two remaining plants could not be investigated because they are in territory held by the terrorists. Their status is unknown.
The Russians might have thought about running out of resources when they instead of finishing the war decided to play diplomatic games.. it could hardly be part of their plan that soe other power woud step in on their behalf – and the behaviour now seen from the US was just a matter of time.
Tribute to tradition – every new US President dreams of starting his war. Only the upstart Trump could not wait even 100 days.
Ladies and Gentlemen! Meet Orange Kim!
Why didn’t the Saker just use the term 9/11 “pretext” instead of “false flag”? He would have gained in credibility. Absolutely great piece otherwise.
I believe that the term ‘false flag’ subsumes the concept of ‘pretext’. Clearly the purpose of a false flag attack is talmudo-satanic pretext and disinformation. No need to be totally literal about things anyway.
Europe is a servant of the USA.
If you breach you suffer a “terrorist attack” or an “economic attack”
The Europe of the states only serves the multinationals.
Social Europe as a Global protagonist is possible with The Peoples of Europe
Both Brother and Brother 2 are available with English subtitles via Tartan films. Have owned copies of both for many years. Can’t recommend Brother highly enough, an amazing piece of Russian cinema. Brother 2 was, well less Russian, in my personal opinion.
Sorry love Russian cinema.
Also thanks for the analysis, been checking back constantly over the last few days waiting to read this.
Bravo! Well thought out and written article.
Best essay you have ever written for this blog. Of course, right now the stakes have never been higher. One wrong move and civilisation is ended, and for what?
“One wrong move and civilisation is ended, and for what?”
Dear Saker and friends–Pray for Tulsi Gabbard’s safety– she is a brave American patriot, and she can possibly accomplish more in her present office than as “president”. The “entrenched interests” inside the demon-infested beltway would never allow someone like her to get anywhere near the presidency, & I strongly suspect she already knows that. Here is a quick lesson in how American government “works”: once “our government” determines what we really want, they will stubbornly do the exact opposite. Not only is the current bunch insane, they are absolutely destructive. Bad mix!
Given her courage in the face of a snarling zio-Fascist mob of Smeagles, I am starting to think that Tulsi Gabbard must have some Russian blood. So far, the USA has ‘thrown up’ mostly Samantha Powers, Madeline Albrights, Hillary Clintons, Victoria Nulands and N. Halleys (cannot bring myself to call that Medusa face “Nikki”).
The New York Times is shamelessly lying and desperately trying to whip up war fever amongst its readers. Its latest top of the page articles are headlined: “White House accuses Russia of Cover-up in Syria Attack” and “Tillerson Warns Russia to Stop Supporting Assad.” The NYT’s writing could NOT be more bellicose. They want a major war, they want it now, and they are willing to concoct absurd narratives (i.e., willful lies) to get it.
“A declassified report says Russia tried to confuse the world community about the Syrian government’s culpability in last week’s chemical weapons attack.
Officials said they could not comment on the possibility that the Russian government knew in advance of Syria’s plan to carry out the attack.” There will be NO fair reportage, no objectivity, no honesty, no concern for the lives of 7 billion people, and no peace in this world. Perhaps they think that the Easter Bunny will take their advice and bring bombs instead of colored eggs on Sunday.
If we truly had a free press in America rather than the closed system exclusively dispensing nothing but propaganda, Saker’s essay and everything by Robert Parry would be prominently published in all the mainstream media to ensure a fair hearing of all sides and to get the real facts out. But America don’t need no stinkin’ facts. That’s been decided for you. You get nothing but propaganda, hate speech against Russia, and an incitement to a war that will be the end of most of the world’s population.
The chief task of CIANN is to stoke up war when the CIA says so.
“The Only Thing, Historically, That’s Curbed Inequality: Catastrophe
Plagues, revolutions, massive wars, collapsed states—these are what reliably reduce economic disparities.”
“Greatness remains in the eye of the beholder: making America more equal again will prove the more daunting challenge. Whereas incremental policy measures to shore up the fortunes of the middle class are both desirable and feasible, the past suggests there is no plausible way to vote, regulate, or teach society back to the levels of equality enjoyed by the postwar generation. History cannot predict the future, but its message is as unpalatable as it is clear: With the rarest of exceptions, great reductions in inequality were only ever brought forth in sorrow. “
I mostly agree with the Saker. But, regarding the role of Russia, I still have to make some observations. It is an indisputable fact that Russia is alone. Yes, China is a partner and the two countries will continue to build a deep strategical partnership on military, economical and political levels.
However, this should not make us believe that China will suddenly up the stakes and confront the Empire. This is contradictory to the primary foundations of Chinese civilization, as well as the current Chinese doctrine. The Chinese think long-term and, unlike the West, have no ambition to play the global power or spread it’s soft power across the planet. The Chinese will continue to build their economic base and pursue friendly economic and political relations with other countries (we should expect Beijing to get even more involved in Latin America and Africa), but refrain from other sort of interference.
In addition, China has a long-term project of rebuilding the ancient trade routes from Central Asia to Europe, this was once called the Silk Road, and was extremely important during the Middle Ages.
The New Silk Road project therefore is of essential importance for China and its future economic development. What we have to realize that China is not a naval power, it is, in essence, a land civilization and has always been.
And the Empire is pressing hard on the South China Sea and has allies in Chinese back yard. it’s why China needs to establish trade connections through Central Asia and into Europe.
But the project is still in its infancy.
To make the long story short, China will not risk and openly stand up to the Empire. Beijing has its long-term strategies and will not risk them so easily.
This leads us to the position of Russia in the great game, with very few allies and only limited means to fight the Empire.
The first thing that needs to be remembered here is that we can’t expect of Russia to keep up confronting the Empire for too long. While Russia, without doubt is, very used to being alone and suffering economic hardship, this cannot continue in definitively. Russian history provides a proof for that.
And now for the main part: I firmly believe Russia need to open up a new front against the Empire. Let me explain: this is a war, like Saker said, maybe it’s 95 information war, but war nonetheless. A war of the post-modern age, I’d day say.
And in war, it’s essential to play strategically against your opponent. In WWII, the British were basically alone against Hitler from 1939 to 1941, and they needed to open new fronts on the continent to tie down the Germans and buy themselves time to reorganize and strike back.
Likewise, Stalin demanded of the Allies to open a new front to relieve the Soviet forces.
And let us use the more recent and more relevant example: when the Empire got outmaneuvered in Syria they opened another front in Ukraine. I don’t think we have any reason to believe the two conflicts are not linked. All suggests otherwise.
Therefore, Russia needs to play hard, and not just in passive defense, but real hard. Of course, Russian ability to destabilize other countries is far, far, inferior to that of the Empire, but Russia needs another front to relieve pressure on Syria and tie the Empire down.
Maybe this is illusory, or not feasible, I don’t know. I don’t even know where this new front should be. I’m aware of the moral implications. Yet, the Empire cannot be defeated by turning the other cheek.
This is the best analysis I read so far!!!! Great work!!!!!
Thank you so much for this article. I especially appreciate the conclusion. May we see an end to empire. May it be so.
All the MSM knew Hillary would win, even pre taped their celebration. They had proof Saddam had WMDs. They knew 9/11 was Osama Bin Laden’s doing, that Martin L King was killed by Ray and JFK was Oswald’s doing. Pearl Harbor was a surprise attack. Remember the Maine. This list could go on, Would anyone risk their life based on these stories from the MSM being true? Well actually millions more died, because someone lied.
Was Kennedy telling the truth when he said he would end the Vietnam war and do away with the CIA? Was Trump telling the truth when he said he would end foreign wars and cooperate with Russia to end Daesh? Did Donald fib or simply take the deal JFK rejected. But more than that who are these characters dictating to our chosen leaders, who we so often wind up calling puppets? The guys who inspired Kennedy’s words, “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, will make violent revolution inevitable.”
So did flying the missiles save any kids? Is it more humane to starve to death or die in the rubble of your family home with a full belly? Will the roughly 100 million it cost to build those missiles be paid off by the heirs of those targeting or targeted? If Yemen were full of white people would we still not give a shit?
Getting weary of all the bold pronouncements, empty conjecture, endless debate. At the Nuremberg trials the ultimate crime was aggression. So I plan, finance and execute a plan to demonize my enemy with a false flag. Then I use the massive power of a captive media to spread the falsehood. While appearing on the same media as the all knowing hero, sailing in to rescue the very people I have victimized!
Seems it is time for some new trials as aggression does not even come close to describing the crime of a false flag warrior presenting as the conscious of the world, the moral safe guard for Mom, the flag and apple pie! When in his heart he knows it is theatre, with the added twist of more than a few very real victims.
Thanks for this but I wonder on China. The funding for the conversion of the rice paddies into factories was from Goldman Sachs. How do you view this news of China evidently back the U.S. in North Korea? I don’t trust China and Putin shouldn’t either. Looks like war is inevitable, even if Russia doesn’t fight back or want to.
Very sad times.
With everyone putting down new and/or revised “red lines”, be it on Syria or North Korea, it was now China’s turn to reveal its “red” or rather “bottom line”, and in a harshly worded editorial titled “The United States Must Not Choose a Wrong Direction to Break the DPRK Nuclear Deadlock on Wednesday” Beijing warned it would attack North Korea’s facilities producing nuclear bombs, effectively engaging in an act of war, if North Korea crosses China’s “bottom line.”
No one should trust Zero Hedge. Its record of reporting facts are dismal. If you do not believe me go back a few years and read their reporting of uprising in NR.
Until it provide a link to a valid Chinese article that stated Chinese will attack North Korea, it did not happen.
One key for a ‘reform’ President coming in is that he needs that faction in Congress behind him.
Early in the Bernie campaign, when he was talking about a ‘movement’, I thought he wasn’t serious. Because he was not recruiting a slate of like-minded candidates to run for Congress. If Bernie didn’t knock at least a bunch of pro-bank, pro-war Dems and replace them with his people in Congress, he didn’t stand a chance.
Trump has the ‘Tea-Party’ faction behind him, apparently now rebranded as “Freedom Caucus”. But its obvious that they are a minority, and they can get rolled by the pro-bank, pro-war combo of Dems and Repubs. For instance, Trump needs at least an impeachment proof size faction in Congress to back him.
Which means its important for a faction to build from below. A few years of winnning House races and Senate races to build that base in Congress, then take the Presidency.
Great analysis. A reminder of why I enjoy coming here.
SOme ideas come to me based on your analysis:
A fourth option for the CW attack is Assad maybe not having 100% complete control over his military. Technically this would be considered part of “false flag” but it is an added dimension to false flag not discussed to date.
Notice to Russians.
I’m really on the fence on this. It is a very stupid move by American warplanners/intelligence and shows great weakness and indecision. Giving up the element of surprise so that Russia can put defenses on full alert and prepare is stupid. With notice Russia can ensure they capture as much intelligence on the entire event as possible and also have time to gauge the type and extent of their countermeasures. Whatever Russia did not know before about Tomahawks and how to counter them, they probably know now.
This shows US has poor intelligence on the ground and no confidence on knowing where the Russians are at on the base otherwise they would not have made such a stupid decision. I would say this is an indication of a very fractured intelligence service we have right now.
Legal Consequences Internal:
There are none, politicians on both sides are above the law and neither side will hold the other to it.
Legal Consequences External:
There are none, no one will hold the US accountable to international law.
Political Consequences Internal:
I believe severe. Trump is on the fast track to becoming a 1-term President (or not even full term) The more that McCain, Lindsey Graham and Chuck Schumer speak out in support of the attack, the more Trump’s supporters realize Trump is no different than the scum they protest voted against. Speaking for myself, in one event Trump has lost my support for good. I will never put an ounce of faith in him from here on out. He represented slim hope and I have pulled that hope off the table based on this.
Political Consequences External:
For all the public cheerleading by allied leaders, I expect there is much private concern for how rash and poorly thought out this action was. For all of Obama’s misguided adventures I would at least say his had more thought put into them. Horrible results still but, more thought put into them. No adversary can sit and listen to Trump speak on anything and consider him a rational actor. Being a bit of a loose cannon can work to your favor at times like was with Bush but Trump is whole other level stupid it appears. As we speak, fresh off this ill conceived attack we have navy ships sailing to North Korea. To do what? Launch another reckless attack? Could you really blame North Korea for attacking as soon as they think they can get a shot at us?
Was this a US false flag that Trump was not aware of? Was it another state actor? Can Trump trust the same intelligence agencies that were proven to have been spying on him just a number of weeks ago? So we have a sitting President who has one of the crappiest relationships with our intelligence services ever, how could you expect anything good to come from that? Wikileaks and others have proven that our intelligence agencies are out of control. It does not look like Trump will be the one to fix that.
Syria is the most complex battlefield we have ever seen and listening to military guests on the radio, I have come to realize that our military leadership is in just about the worst condition it has ever been. Thanks to Obama all that is left are yes-men and no thinkers. No Schwarzkopf types out there that I see. I challenge anyone to name a battlefield in history with as many dimensions to it as Syria. State Actors and Intelligence services, domestic rebels, professional military contractors, foreign mercenaries, common terrorists, war profiteers, fake aid groups, rabid/satanic cannibal scum and (of course) innocent civilians in the middle of it. Fighting with the latest aircraft and air defenses, tanks and modern anti-tank weapons, VBIED’s, IED’s, military grade drones, civilian grade drones, tunnel digging equipment, chemical weapons, all the way down to primitive swords used to torture and gruesomely behead people.
Only a fool or a morally corrupt scum (either of which could be exactly what Trump is) would put our troops in the middle of that without it being absolutely necessary for our security as a nation. I will go out on a limb and say this war is not worth it and is about Israeli, Saudi and Qatari interests and not ours.
This is not just about Trump and his decision. This is about the people of America and whether they will allow themselves to get lied into a another war. So we are to believe Trump saw those beautiful babies killed and it drove him to action against Assad. Trump’s action killed how many people (including kids) and did nothing directly to Assad. What if Assad’s government forces where not responsible for the chemical attack? Does that not make trump a murderer? Are the American people ok with that?
How many Syrians are Americans ok with killing to save them from their government we accuse of killing them? Long ago when I took an oath to this country, that is not what I signed on for. How many Iraqis would have preferred to stay under Saddam’s control rather than be killed by their “saviors”? We will never know that answer because they are dead and gone. That choice was taken from them by the arrogant Americans.
Just how long will America keep going down this road before the consequences of our actions come due? We all know our government lies to us but, why are we still willing to believe these lies as an excuse to go to war? Are Americans psycos? Too much time playing Call of Duty?
Trump has lost his morality on the world stage with this action. The question is, will the rest of America follow him down this immoral path or will we finally stand up and be heard?
Again, superb analysis taking into account the many actors and their respective interests and variables at play. Excellent, thank you!
Great article which I have shared widely. One comment asked what we can/should do? He called himself a computer warrior – or a click-ti-vist. We need more people getting out of isolation and onto the streets where others can see that they are not alone in opposing wars. Particularly needed in the US, Europe, Canada and Australia.
“How a guy like him ever made in business is a mystery to me . . .”
Could be a cardboard cutout, just a brand someone is selling. Have you ever spoken to someone from a business school? Lots of arrogance, but It’s amazing these people can tie their shoes! I’ve know of “business people,” as well, who are functionally retarded. They’ll have a father that is a rich lawyer; embarrassed his son is a moron, he buys him a fastfood franchise (which doesn’t require entrepreneurial skills) so he can pretend his seed is not inferior.
Trump had so many options. He could have said “We need to investigate.” You can always delay. He could have laid in all sorts of threats and tough guy talk, but using the word investigate would have deflated the balloon. Oh well. What can you do with these people!
Images allegedly of downed Tomahawk missiles. I can’t vouch for accuracy:
Begin Quote #
Since President Trump ordered retaliation against VT and its staff, partly for our story destroying the White Helmets to a huge international audience and partly to warn us over a blackmail tape issue, there have been changes. VT is “last man standing.” We are sitting on a number of stories, but there is a difference between a story and something legitimate. What is below is legitimate and now confirmed by our own sources inside Syria.
Veterans Today contacted the Syrian Ministry of Information regarding the bizarre news that 34 Tomahawk cruise missiles had simply vanished. VT had even surmised that some may well have been used against other targets, even going as far as to suggest a possible conspiracy to hit Palmyra to aid the ISIS attack there.
A possible confirmation is simply the number fired, 59. This is what would be required to overwhelm the Russian air defense system based on the number of launchers, both S300 and S400 and other “cruise-capable” systems out there. Russia would keep their best “in the tubes” for any possible air attack, just in case the cruise missile launch was a lead to empty air defense tubes for a B 52 or similar “big show” raid.”
# End quote
The video they site is no longer available.
I read the Saker’s article found most of it quite good. However, once he mentioned Tulsi Gabbard, I became apprehensive. Her curious background is explored in this article I link to http://www.alternet.org/…/curious-islamophobic-politics… An excerpt. *****But the case of Tulsi Gabbard becomes less curious and more expected once you look at her links to a different set of ethnic and religious hardliners: the Hindu nationalist Indian Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Since her election to Congress, Gabbard has tied herself closely to this party, which has a history of condoning hatred and violence against India’s Muslim minority. Many of her stateside donors and supporters are also big supporters of this movement, which disdains secularism and promotes religious sectarianism.
Meet the Islamophobic BJP
In May 2014, the BJP swept the Indian election, and the man it made prime minister was then-governor of the state of Gujarat, Narendra Modi. To say Modi is a controversial figure would be a considerable understatement. In 2002, huge riots broke out in his state, with primarily Hindu mobs attacking Muslim residents. Over 2,000 men, women, and children were killed, with many more injured; mass rape was also documented. Almost all of the victims were Muslim.**** Serious stuff indeed. The power structures in the US tend to conform to a pattern of extremely ruthless behaviours. THAT is why I believe this article and I wish to share it. The Saker is usually very good on international goings on but I have noticed a weakness in his analysis of US domestic affairs.
I certainly hope they won’t trade San Francisco for the Carl Vinson – cuz I LIVE HERE! :-)
Seriously, I think the only thing preventing a war between Russia and the US over Syria at this point is…a war between the US and North Korea.
Which, incidentally, will be much worse for the US than a war with Russia in Syria. North Korea can field a million men, including between 100,000 and 200,000 extremely tough Special Forces, on their own home ground. The US and South Korea can’t approach that. North Korea can destroy Seoul, the capital of South Korea, within 72 hours. North Korea can drop half a million artillery rounds PER HOUR on US forces currently in South Korea.
Pentagon war games show the US losing fifty thousand casualties within 90 days of the start of a war with North Korea. Nothing like that could occur in a war between Russia and the US in Syria absent someone using nuclear weapons.
As for the comments by the Administration officials flip-flopping every few days, these are the result of two phenomena:
1) Deliberate attempts to confuse Russia and other countries.
2) The basic problem of senior people that they care so little about everyone else that they really can’t be bothered with what they say at all. They just don’t care because they know they aren’t going to be held to account for anything they say. This has been true for practically every US politician for the last century. Kennedy used to pull statistics out of his ass at press conferences. Bush couldn’t even speak correctly – and didn’t care. Obama was a serial liar.
So why be surprised when Administration officials can’t keep a coherent line going? It’s deliberate and part of their psychology.
A lot of people are upset over the notion that Russia won’t go to WWIII over Syria. But she won’t. Russian doctrine is to fight wars only up to 1,000 miles from their borders. Syria doesn’t qualify.
There is no way that Russia can defeat a massive US attack in Syria (without threatening nuclear use.). Russia can make that attack quite COSTLY, of course (as demonstrated by the ECM use against the cruise missile attack) – and hopefully that will be adequate as a deterrent. But if Trump is committed to invading Syria and/or launching a large air campaign, Russia cannot STOP that from happening. Russia might be able to delay, or minimize, or get the UN to do something, but militarily Russia can not STOP a committed US invasion/air campaign against Syria – not without directly threatening nuclear war.
Which doesn’t mean Russia necessarily will LOSE if the US does destroy Syria’s military. It just means Russia will have to pick its next battle carefully. Perhaps retaliate by ending the Ukraine crisis by overthrowing the Ukraine government, killing all the oligarchs and the Nazi battalions – and then going home, as I’ve suggested in the past should be done. Russia can also support Hizballah in Lebanon, as that will be the next target of the Empire. And then Russia can enhance and support Iran and also support Iran in getting the US kicked out of Iraq for good.
So options will remain. But The Saker is right – the rest of the world needs to get in on this fight and not leave it up to Russia and China alone.
Well, maybe the US could do that, overwhelm…but I wonder. I suspect that small matters might cascade – and most surface ships of attacking force might be inoperative due to their altitude (below sea level) – and that could happen in 30 minutes. No atomic materials would be needed.
Saker, lovely analysis and nothing to criticise.
I am far removed from being a Military analyst, but history is another matter and that is read from the present backwards and from the back forwards.
Starting with the last aspect of your article; the collapse of Liberal Democracy is the collapse of the left-right dichotomy. The Liberal-Conservative dance is over all across the world, the loyal opposition and the direct expression of sectional interests, died when both sides succumbed to direct financial control. Their policies are the one policy and that stems from private thinktanks.
Trump may stay or Trump might go, where Obama’s turn could be seen as cowardice, it happening exactly the same, but for a second time this shows method. It cannot be blackmail, though both like all of us have things we rather others did not known, people react very differently to the threat. Trump and Obama have nothing in common there. So we are left with a direct threat to the lives of family members and a demand to ‘show us you understand’. The deep state is a series of state warlords rather than one controlling all — hence controlling chaos is not a policy so much as a reflection of oligarchy.
Pence replacing Trump would be a gift, not because of any virtues in the former, but that it would unite Trump and anti-Trumpists in disgust with the Presidency as a whole — the last organ of government that had popular legitimacy.
Rolling further back China needs to act and will act, but at an auspicious time. That time is approaching fast, the Tarp money from 2008 was used to buy up US assets, but it was mainly exported recreating outside America the real estate speculation that is now reach crisis. In Australia we are on the verge of collapse, I dare say this is more widespread. Property is about to go bust. The effect of this is on US treasuries, because these are supported by the foreign reserves derived from US capital export. So Australia and others go belly up, their reserves become so much paper, US bonds don’t get the value and they decline rapidly.
That is an auspicious sign, now months away.
A no-fly zone by Assad will provide clear signs of US military impotency. More electronics, more anti-aircraft and more aircraft is enough to do this. The last element is China and Russia to put more boots on the ground to hasten the Syrian clean-up. This is speculative, the rest isn’t. But a sealed Syria with China and Russia on the ground, need not lead to an escalation of conflict with the US directly, but achieve a demonstration of its impotency as some of its erstwhile allies take some damage instead. So long as Syrian hands deal with the no-fly zone and Russian and Chinese troops exclusively with support, security and limited mercenary clean-ups.
Lastly, I think most of this is pre-cast, though what actually develops will appear very different.
… and what happens if in fact the 59 missiles were not launched because: there was an agreement between the US military and Russia, in contempt of the orders coming from the White House? There are strong signs of dissidence and mutual cooperation … or else, the 36 ‘disappeared’ were voluntarily implosionados in flight … possibilities that in any case do not change the great panorama that raises The Saker.
Great article. Thank you!
It seems, however, you did however overlook Rand Paul as a contender for the 2020, and one who has also vocally expressed his doubt at the chemical weapons story.
I think too many here (Saker included) bank on the idea of China helping Russia out. The two countries may have shared a communist past but at this point their interests are pretty divergent; I can think of three reason why China will not antagonize USA and by the same token they will not help Russia much beyond paying lip service:
1) China and US economies are too dependent on each other at this point. Any escalation, let alone a hot confrontation between the two countries will have severe economic repercussions for both countries, something that I am sure both the Chinese and US are keen to avoid; Unlike China, Russia’s level of trade with US is minimum or nonexistent so any direct confrontation- as long as does not go nuclear- will not affect US much, if at all.
2) Many of the current Chine rulers have their children studying in US or western Europe, and many more Chinese millionaire and billionaires have invested heavily in US or British companies; a lot of them own properties in US, Canada and elsewhere in the western world. In this context few of them will be keen to challenge US to the point where this may imperil the safely of their children studding aboard or the value of their property/investment oversea; while the Russians oligarchs succumbed to lure of globalism as well, relatively few Russian top politicians have their children study/live permanently abroad and even fewer of them own massive holdings in US or western European companies. I would argue that on the contrary, since 2014 many of the Russians citizens living aboard have become targets of CIA’s long arm and get arrested with impunity by a host of western countries on the behest of the world Hegemon.
3) Last but not least, there are enough Chinese who are salivating at the idea of appropriating for China large swaths of land in Russia’s under populated Far East. I do not have the slightest doubt, that should Russia fall on hard times and disintegrate at some point, the Chinese will be more than happy to assert their rule over large portions of east Siberia. China needs something that the Russians have plenty of: empty land and bountiful resources.
As you can see the interest of this alleged allies are –after all – not that aligned as well. In the aforementioned context I am afraid Russia has few powerful allies it can count on. So let us remove China from this equation for the time being. They will not help Russia and US/Israel will know how to lure them into their “team”. China’s ruling elite cannot be expect to take any adversarial actions towards the deep state.
Th 60 cruise missile attack was a reconnaissance by fire.
I haven’t had time to watch the Dick Morris analysis of Trump’s brilliance that gives Dennis hope in Trump’s genius over in the Cafe. I wanted to, but no time. I’m not real big on tricks, my enjoyment of the game of bridge notwithstanding.
This gives me a bit more hope in 5-10 minutes. Not that I haven’t joined others in serious distrust of Dr Steven Peiczenik recently. Again, no time, gotta hit the road, Jack. But here Dr P rants against McMaster and Mattis and charges them with criminal negligence/ dereliction of duty if they try regime change in Syria.
A Damascus Road conversion against his former Hegemonial Master??? I don’t know.
Steven P: “USA hasn’t won a war in a century. We didn’t win WII. Russia won it in 1942 and 1943…….
“Our generals have no idea what they are doing……”
Lots of turmoil.
Also warns. About mistakes re China and says “they have a hold over Jared Kushner and his 666 Fifth Ave”…….”Kushner is very vulnerable target” “he should go back to his business…leave the White House and say ‘Thank you very much.’ ”
Claims all this is about Asia, not Syria.That it’s pre-negotiation for a “deal” with China, not war in either place.
Maybe. Complexity layered upon further complexity.
Dr P: “There will be no regime change in Syria. When we announce regime change it means we can’t do it.”
Bro, thanks for this gem. 666 Fifth Ave? What a unlucky number.
We can agree or not agree with some, or even all Saker’s text, but we all must agree:
THE SITUATION IS FURTHER DETERIORATING!
We are further down the road with no return, no way out.
The wall is getting closer, and closer that Russia is being pushed to / against.
It is just a matter of time for Russia to push hard back.
It is anyone guess what happens then.
Interesting times are ahead of us.
Andrei, could former insiders with current insider sources compare notes and GET together?
Pieczenik… don’t know. The Alex Jones connection bothers me and accepting to be interrupted by a rude buffoon would caved in to losing his income is suspicious as hell.
RDS? Consistent. Wilkerson? Consistent. Binney? Consistent. Assange? Consistent. Thierry Meyssan? Hope-inspiring and open-minded but NOT inconsistent. Are you guys even in contact? My list is much, much longer but you get the drift.
Just watched both “Brother” and its sequel “Brother 2” with English subtitles: Fascinating.
[Sidebar: if John Wayne is the prototypical American hero, Danilo Bagrov, from the movies “Brother” and its sequel “Brother 2” is the prototypical Russian hero: rather shy, softly spoken, of modest means, a times charmingly clumsy and naive, but in reality “the toughest of us all” (as he is called by another character in the sequel (if you have not seen these two movies, I highly recommend them though I don’t know if they exist with English subtitles (dubbing them would be a crime)).
Because Putin conducted warfare based on morality, those missing 36 Tomahawk were swallowed by the Angels. Allah Most High is on Putin’s side.
Here is what can save the world – The Noble Act Of Losing Face – Can Some Day Save The Human Race (edited,all cap sentences aren’t permitted on the blog. I fixed it for you this time.MOD).
«In all my years of training and work as a military analyst I have always had to assume that everybody involved was what we called a “rational actor” ».
I totally agree. But even here there might be something rational in the US behaviour (though it’s a quite desperate attitude): The Americans know Russia’s “weak spot” (the Russians are stuck in a dilemma because they can’t afford to let Assad down because of their own security but they don’t want a nuclear war either), so they might be trying through their ridiculous show of force to make the Kremlin believe that although they know they are very likely to lose any war (included a nuclear one) against Russia, they’re truly prepared to take the whole world with them and let it get destroyed in such a war if Russia doesn’t give up Syria and the Middle East. I’m quite sure that if the nuclear danger were really imminent, they would in fact get scared and back down, but of course I wouldn’t take the risk to try this option if I were in Russia’s place. I think the Russians should be firm and consequent towards the Americans but they should at the same time act very carefully and thoughtfully. I also see some hope in the elections that will soon take place in many European countries (especially in France). Maybe some of those European countries could become less coward after those elections than they are right now.
It is legend that the general who wishes his reluctant army to fight to the death marches it to a river or to the sea, while provoking an enemy.
The general has a plan to escape if things go badly, but sometimes the general stays…
The American or transnational junta that’s essentially the anglosaxon diaspora bent on MacKinder’s vast plan to rule the world – this group sees itself as backs to the sea. They’re putting the rest of the people into the same spot. It is not going very well, but they are trying.
do not imagine there can be peace from such a disposition of factors. the empire has its back to the sea, and financial and civil chaos – matters not to be thought of in their mind…
they’re mad. that’s all. And Trump? His election buggered the scheduled attacks, that delay may matter a lot.
“I realize that for some this might be counter-intuitive, but remember that deterrences only works with rational actors. Russia has already done a lot, more than everybody else besides Iran. And if Russia is not the world’s policeman, neither is she the world savior. The rest of mankind also needs to stop being a silent bystander and actually do something!“…
The strong do what they have to do and the weak accept what they have to accept. Thucydides
Recommended TO STUDY the father of “scientific history” Thucydides
This is all getting quite boring now. Putin is false NWO opposition and doesn’t do anything – always let’s the terrorists go like in Syrian cities he caputured, and in Delbatsevo. All these websites for years and years just go on about how US is breaking international law blablabla – WE KNOW THAT – but what is Putin gonna do about it – Sweet F. A. He doesn’t fight back. Maybe when NATO are at the gates of Moscow.
Well, to put it mildly: This is not Hollywood, where you punch people in the face or shoot them and get away with it. If you want “Not boring” watch watch some movie.
You will have to be boring when you will be responsible for the lives of 140+ mln people.
Very insightful and closer to reality…such analyses need to be communicated and spread more so that the world can see beyond what is fed to them by the mainstream media.
An excellent article, well presented.
This war is not only between Russia, USA and possibly China.
Each country’s awakened people are responsible for their Country’s Leadership, and we have all been betrayed. Each country must put their own House in Order …….. and all Adults are called to participate in this Great Work. Blessings.
This is a refreshing article with sane views. It is hard to believe it is written by an American! I had high hopes for Trump that he can pull America from creating havoc with nations all over the world trying to re-make in their image. From the moment he started appointing his cabinet I began to realise we are dealing with a lunatic. What is frightening is that the lunatic in DC has his finger on the nuclear trigger! American administration has deception and malice deeply ingrained. It is narcissist and runs on a parallel universe where they can never be in wrong regardless of their actions. It is callous in that lives of other nations don’t matter as much as American lives. How can America under any circumstance be arming Al Qaeda? Unless of course they are consumed with such hatred for Assad that it does not matter what he has done or not done.
Soon after the attack the Israeli Prime Minister was on record that they knew the order to gas those people came from Assad. I believe Israelis were involved in prodding Trump to strike Syria. Just after their incursion into Syria where it appears they lost at least one jet, first they denied losing a plane and then strangely issued an angry statement that next time they are fired upon they will obliterate Syria’s air defense systems. What better way to retaliate than to let America do it for them? Well Syria was using the S200; it looks possible now they will be having S300 or even S400 to defend their skies.