The latest US cruise missile attack on the Syrian airbase is an extremely important event in so many ways that it is important to examine it in some detail. I will try to do this today with the hope to be able to shed some light on a rather bizarre attack which will nevertheless have profound consequences. But first, let’s begin by looking at what actually happened.
I don’t think that anybody seriously believes that Assad or anybody else in the Syrian government really ordered a chemical weapons attack on anybody. To believe that it would require you to find the following sequence logical: first, Assad pretty much wins the war against Daesh which is in full retreat. Then, the US declares that overthrowing Assad is not a priority anymore (up to here this is all factual and true). Then, Assad decides to use weapons he does not have. He decides to bomb a location with no military value, but with lots of kids and cameras. Then, when the Russians demand a full investigation, the Americans strike as fast as they can before this idea gets any support. And now the Americans are probing a possible Russian role in this so-called attack. Frankly, if you believe any of that, you should immediately stop reading and go back to watching TV. For the rest of us, there are three options:
- a classical US-executed false flag
- a Syrian strike on a location which happened to be storing some kind of gas, possibly chlorine, but most definitely not sarin. This option requires you to believe in coincidences. I don’t. Unless,
- the US fed bad intelligence to the Syrians and got them to bomb a location where the US knew that toxic gas was stored.
What is evident is that the Syrians did not drop chemical weapons from their aircraft and that no chemical gas was ever stored at the al-Shayrat airbase. There is no footage showing any munitions or containers which would have delivered the toxic gas. As for US and other radar recordings, all they can show is that an aircraft was in the sky, its heading, altitude and speed. There is no way to distinguish a chemical munition or a chemical attack by means of radar.
Whatever option you chose, the Syrian government is obviously and self-evidently innocent of the accusation of having used chemical weapons. This is most likely a false flag attack.
Also, and just for the record, the US had been considering exactly such a false flag attack in the past. You can read everything about this plan here and here.
American and Russian sources both agree on the following facts: 2 USN ships launched 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles at the Al Shayrat airfield in Syria. The US did not consult with the Russians on a political level, but through military channels the US gave Russia 2 hours advance warning. At this point the accounts begin to differ.
The Americans say that all missiles hit their targets. The Russians say that only 23 cruise missiles hit the airfield. The others are “unaccounted for”. Here I think that it is indisputable that the Americans are lying and the Russians are saying the truth: the main runway is intact (the Russian reporters provided footage proving this) and only one taxiway was hit. Furthermore, the Syrian Air Force resumed its operations within 24 hours. 36 cruise missiles have not reached their intended target. That is a fact.
It is also indisputable that there were no chemical munitions at this base as nobody, neither the Syrians nor the Russian reporters, had to wear any protective gear.
The missiles used in the attack, the Tomahawk, can use any combination of three guidance systems: GPS, inertial navigation and terrain mapping. There is no evidence and even no reports that the Russians shot even a single air-defense missile. In fact, the Russians had signed a memorandum with the USA which specifically comitting Russia NOT to interfere with any US overflights, manned or not, over Syria (and vice versa). While the Tomahawk cruise missile was developed in the 1980s, there is no reason to believe that the missiles used had exceeded their shelf live and there is even evidence that they were built in 2014. The Tomahawk is known to be accurate and reliable. There is absolutely no basis to suspect that over half of the missiles fired simply spontaneously malfunctioned. I therefore see only two possible explanations for what happened to the 36 missing cruise missiles:
Explanation A: Trump never intended to really hit the Syrians hard and this entire attack was just “for show” and the USN deliberately destroyed these missiles over the Mediterranean. That would make it possible for Trump to appear tough while not inflicting the kind of damage which would truly wreck his plans to collaborate with Russia. I do not believe in this explanation and I will explain why in the political analysis below.
Explanation B: The Russians could not legally shoot down the US missiles. Furthermore, it is incorrect to assume that these cruise missiles flew a direct course from the Mediterranean to their target (thereby almost overflying the Russian radar positions). Tomahawk were specifically built to be able to fly tangential courses around some radar types and they also have a very low RCS (radar visibility), especially in the frontal sector. Some of these missiles were probably flying low enough not to be seen by Russian radars, unless the Russians had an AWACS in the air (I don’t know if they did). However, since the Russians were warned about the attack they had plenty of time to prepare their electronic warfare stations to “fry” and otherwise disable at least part of the cruise missiles. I do believe that this is the correct explanation. I do not know whether the Russian were technically unable to destroy and confuse the 23 missiles which reached the base or whether a political decision was taken to let less than half of the cruise missiles through in order to disguise the Russian role in the destruction of 36 missiles. What I am sure of is that 36 advanced cruise missile do not “just disappear”. There are two reasons why the Russians would have decided to use their EW systems and not their missiles: first, it provides them “plausible deninability” (at least for the general public, there is no doubt that US signal intelligence units did detect the Russian electronic interference (unless it happened at very low power and very high frequency and far away inland), and because by using EW systems it allowed them to keep their air defense missiles for the protection of their own forces. Can the Russian really do this?
Take a look at this image, taken from a Russian website, which appears to have been made by the company Kret which produces some of the key Russian electronic warfare systems. Do you notice that on the left hand side, right under the AWACs aircraft you can clearly see a Tomahawk type missile turning around and eventually exploding at sea?
How this is done is open to conjecture. All that we are told is that the missile is given a “false target” but for our purposes this really does not matter. What matters is that the Russians have basically leaked the information that they are capable of turning cruise missiles around. There are other possibilities such as an directed energy beams which basically fries or, at least, confuses the terrain following and or inertial navigation systems. Some have suggested a “kill switch” which would shut down the entire missile. Maybe. Again, this really doesn’t matter for our purposes. What matters is that the Russian have the means to spoof, redirect or destroy US cruise missiles. It sure appears to be that for the first time these systems were used in anger.
[Sidebar: for those interested in seeing what such a system looks like here is a short video made by the Russians themselves showing how such a system is deployed and operated:
In terms of technical details, or we are told that this system can jam any airborne object at a distance of 200km]
I would note that those who say that the Russian air defense systems did not work don’t know what they are talking about. Not only did Russia sign an agreement with the US not to interfere with US flight operations, the Russian air defenses in Syria are NOT tasked with the protection of the Syrian Air Space. That is a task for the Syrian air defenses. The Russians air defenses in Syria are only here to protect Russian personnel and equipment. This is why the Russians never targeted Israeli warplanes. And this is hardly surprising as the Russian task force in Syria never had the mission to shut down the Syrian air space or, even less so, to start a war with the USA or Israel.
However, this might be changing. Now the Russians have withdrawn from their agreement with the USA and, even more importantly, have have declared that the Syrians urgently need more advanced air defense capabilities. Currently the Syrians operate very few advanced Russian air defense systems, most of their gear is old.
Legal aspects of the attack:
The US attack happened in direct violation of US law, of international law and of the UN charter. First, I would say that there is strong legal evidence that the US attack violated the US Constitution, Presidential War Powers Act and the 2001 Authorization of Military Force (AUMF) resolution. But since I don’t really care about this aspect of Trump’s criminal behavior, I will just refer you to two pretty good analyses of this issue (see here and here) and just simply summarize the argument of those who say that what Trump did was legal. It boils down to this: “yeah, it’s illegal, but all US Presidents have been doing it for so long that they have thereby created a legal precedent which, uh, makes it legal after all“. I don’t think this kind of “defense” is worthy of a reply or rebuttal. So now let’s turn to international law.
Most people think that crimes against humanity or genocide must be the ultimate crime under international law. They are wrong. The ultimate crime is aggression. This is the conclusion of the Nuremberg Trial on this topic:
To initiate a war of aggression, therefore, is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole.
So, following the long and prestigious list of other US Presidents before him, Donald Trump is now a war criminal. In fact, he is a “supreme war criminal”. It only took him 77 days to achieve this status, probably some kind of a record.
As for the UN Charter, at least for articles (1, 2, 33, 39) ban the kind of aggression the USA took against Syria.
I think that there is no need to dwell on the total illegality of this attack. I would just underscore the supreme irony of a country basically built by and run by lawyers (just see how many of them there are in Congress) whose general population seems to be totally indifferent to the fact that their elected representatives act in a completely illegal manner. All that most American people care about is whether the illegal action brings victory or not. But if it does, absolutely nobody cares. You disagree? Tell me, how many peace demonstrations were there in the USA about the totally illegal US aggression on Yugoslavia? Exactly. QED.
Political consequences (internal)
My son perfectly summed up what Trump’s actions have resulted in: “those who hated him still hate him while those who supported him now also hate him“. Wow! How did Trump and his advisors fail to predict that? Instead of fulfilling his numerous campaign promises (and his own Twitter statements) Trump decided to suddenly make a 180 and totally betray everything he stood for. I can’t think of a dumber action, I really can’t. I have to say that Trump now appears to make Dubya look smart. But there is much, much worse.
The worst aspect of this clusterf**k is how utterly immoral this makes Trump appear. Think of it – first Trump abjectly betrayed Flynn. Then he betrayed Bannon.
[Sidebar: I mostly liked Flynn. I had no use for Bannon at all. But the fact is that they were not my best friends, they were Trump’s best friends. And instead of standing up for them, he sacrificed them to the always bloodthirsty Neocons in the hope of appeasing them. This is what I wrote about this stupid and deeply immoral betrayal the day it happened:
Remember how Obama showed his true face when he hypocritically denounced his friend and pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr.? Today, Trump has shown us his true face. Instead of refusing Flynn’s resignation and instead of firing those who dared cook up these ridiculous accusations against Flynn, Trump accepted the resignation. This is not only an act of abject cowardice, it is also an amazingly stupid and self-defeating betrayal because now Trump will be alone, completely alone, facing the likes of Mattis and Pence – hard Cold Warrior types, ideological to the core, folks who want war and simply don’t care about reality.
The worst aspect of that is that by betraying people left and right Trump has now shown that you cannot trust him, that he will backstab you with no hesitation whatsoever. Would you ever take a risk for a guy like that? Contrast that with Putin who is “notorious” for standing by his friends and allies even when they do something really wrong! There is a reason why the AngloZionists could not break Putin and why it only took them one month to neuter Trump: Putin is made of titanium, Trump is just an overcooked noodle]
And now Trump has betrayed HIMSELF by turning against everything he, himself, stood for. This is almost Shakespearean in its pathetic and tragic aspects!
During his campaign Trump made a lot of excellent promises and he did inspire millions of Americans to support him. I personally believe that he was sincere in his intentions, and I don’t buy the “it was all an act” theory at all. Just look at the total panic of the Neocons at the prospects of a Trump victory and tell me this was all fake. No, I think that Trump was sincere. But when confronted with the ruthless opposition of the Neocons and the US deep state, Trump snapped and instantly broke because he is clearly completely spineless and has the ethics and morals of a trailer park prostitute.
So what we really have is a sad and pathetic version of Obama. A kind of Obama 2.0 if you want. The man inspired millions, he promised change you can believe in, and he delivered absolutely nothing except for an abject subservience to the real masters and owners of the United States: the Neocons and the deep state.
Trump did get what he apparently wanted, though: the very same corporate media which he claimed to despise is now praising him. And nobody is calling him a “Putin agent” any more. None of which will prevent the Neocons from impeaching him, by the way. He chose a quickfix solution which will stop acting in just days. How totally stupid of him. He apparently also chose the option of an “attack for show” to begin with, which turned into one of the most pathetic attacks in history, probably courtesy of Russian EW, and now that the USA has wasted something in the range of 100 million dollars, what does Trump have to show? A few flattering articles from the media which he has always hated and which will return to hate him as soon as ordered to do so by its Neocon masters. Pathetic if you ask me.
Ever since he got into the White House, Trump has been acting like your prototypical appeaser (it makes me wonder if his father was an alcoholic). How a guy like him ever made in business is a mystery to me, but what is now clear is that the Neocons totally submitted him and that they will now turn him into political roadkill.
I am afraid that the next four years (or less!) will turn into a neverending Purim celebration…
Political consequences (external)
Trump has single handedly destroyed any hopes of a US collaboration with Russia of any kind. Worse, he has also destroyed any hopes of being able to defeat Daesh. Why? Because if you really believe that Daesh can be defeated without Russian and Iranian support I want to sell you bridges all over the world. It ain’t happening. What is much, much worse is that now we are again on a pre-war situation, just as we were with Obama and would have been with Clinton. Let me explain.
The following are the measures with Russia has taken following the US attack on Syria:
- Denunciation at UN (to be expected, no big deal)
- Decision to strengthen the Syrian air defenses (big deal, that will give the Syrians the means to lock their airspace)
- Decision to cancel the Memorandum with the USA (now the Russians in Syria will have the right to decide whether to shoot or not)
- Decision to shut down the phone hot line with the US military (now the US won’t be able to call the Russians to ask them to do or not do something)
The combination of decisions 2, 3 and 4 does not mean that the Russians will shoot the next time, not by itself. The Russians will still be restricted by their own rules of engagement and by political decisions. But this will dramatically affect the US decision-making since from now on there will be no guarantee that the Russians will not shoot either. The Russians basically own the Syrian airspace already. What they want to do next is to give a similar capability to the Syrians. Not only will that allow the Syrians to defend themselves against any future US or Israeli attacks, it will provide the Russians plausible deniabilty the day they decide to shoot down a US aircraft or drone. Finally, the Russians are rushing back some of their most advanced ships towards the Syrian coast. So after giving Trump the benefit of the doubt, the Russians are now returning to a Obama-times like posture in Syria. Bravo Trump, well done!
Yes, I know, Tillerson is expected to meet Lavrov this week. This was discussed ad nauseam on Russian TV and the consensus is that the only reason why the Russians did not cancel this meeting is because they don’t want, on general principle, to be the ones to refuse to speak to the other side. Fine. Considering that we are talking about a potential international thermonuclear war, I can see the point. Still, I would have preferred to say Lavrov telling Tillerson to go and get lost. Why? Because I have come to the conclusion that any and all types of dialog with the United States are simply a meaningless and useless waste of time. For one thing, there is no US policy on anything. Over the past week or so we saw both Nikki Haley and Rex Tillerson completely contradict themselves over and over again: “no we don’t want to overthrow Assad. Yes we do want to overthrow Assad. Yes we do. No we don’t“. This is almost painful and embarrassing to watch. This just goes to show that just like the Obama Administration, the Trump people are “недоговороспособны” or “not agreement capable”. I explain this term in this analysis (written about Obama! Not Trump):
The Russians expressed their total disgust and outrage at this attack and openly began saying that the Americans were “недоговороспособны”. What that word means is literally “not-agreement-capable” or unable to make and then abide by an agreement. While polite, this expression is also extremely strong as it implies not so much a deliberate deception as the lack of the very ability to make a deal and abide by it. For example, the Russians have often said that the Kiev regime is “not-agreement-capable”, and that makes sense considering that the Nazi occupied Ukraine is essentially a failed state. But to say that a nuclear world superpower is “not-agreement-capable” is a terrible and extreme diagnostic. It basically means that the Americans have gone crazy and lost the very ability to make any kind of deal. Again, a government which breaks its promises or tries to deceive but who, at least in theory, remains capable of sticking to an agreement would not be described as “not-agreement-capable”. That expression is only used to describe an entity which does not even have the skillset needed to negotiate and stick to an agreement in its political toolkit. This is an absolutely devastating diagnostic.
This is bad. Really bad. This means that the Russians have basically given up on the notion of having an adult, sober and mentally sane partner to have a dialog with. What this also means is that while remaining very polite and externally poker faced, the Russians have now concluded that they need to simply assume that they need to act either alone or with other partners and basically give up on the United States.
That applies only to the official Kremlin. Independent Russian analysts are not shy about expressing their total contempt and disgust for Trump. Some of them are suggesting that Trump decided to show how “tough” he is in preparation for the Tillerson trip to Moscow. If that is the case, then he is badly miscalculating. For one thing, a lot of them as saying that what Trump has engaged in is “показуха” – a totally fake shows of force which really shows nothing. What is certain is that demonstrations of force are very much frowned upon on the Russian culture which strongly believes that a really tough guy does not have to look the part.
[Sidebar: if John Wayne is the prototypical American hero, Danilo Bagrov, from the movies “Brother” and its sequel “Brother 2” is the prototypical Russian hero: rather shy, softly spoken, of modest means, a times charmingly clumsy and naive, but in reality “the toughest of us all” (as he is called by another character in the sequel (if you have not seen these two movies, I highly recommend them though I don’t know if they exist with English subtitles (dubbing them would be a crime)).
What is sure is that the John Wayne types would never survive in the Russian street, they would be immediately perceived as fake, weak and showing off to try to conceal their lack of strength and they would be crushed and humiliated. Nowadays when Americans adopt what I call the “Delta Force/Blackwater style” (pointy beard, long hair, dark sunglasses, and a ton of muscles etc.) they look comical by Russian standards, Russian special forces (and I have met a lot of them) *never* look the part if only because they try hard not to look it].
Personally I don’t think that impressing the Russians was Trump’s plan. Nor do I believe, like some, that launching that attack during the visit of Chinese Premier Xi was a deliberate affront or some kind of “message”. In fact, I don’t think that there was much of a plan at all beyond showing that Trump is “tough” and no friend of Putin. That’s it. I think that the so-called “elites” in charge running the USA are infinitely arrogant, stupid, uneducated, incompetent and irresponsible. I don’t buy the “managed chaos” theory nor do I buy the notion that if before the Anglo-Zionists imposed their order on others now they impose their dis-order. Yes, that is the consequence of their actions, but it’s not part of some diabolical plan, it is a sign of terminal degeneracy of an Empire which is clueless, frightened, angry and arrogant.
I have already explained in my previous analysis why Trump’s plan to defeat ISIS is a non-starter and I won’t bother repeating it all here. What I will say is that Erdogan’s endorsement of Trump’s attack is equally stupid and self-defeating. I really wonder what Erdogan is hoping to achieve. Not only did the Americans almost kill him in a coup attempt, they are now working on creating a semi-independent Kurdistan right on the border with Turkey. Yes, I know, Erdogan wants to get rid of Assad, fair enough, but does he really believe that Trump will be able to remove Assad from power? And what if Assad is removed, will Turkey really be better off once the Emirate of Takfiristan is declared in Syria? I very much hope that after the referendum Erdogan will recover some sense of reality.
What about the Israelis, do they really believe that dealing with Assad is worse than dealing with this Caliphate of Takfiristan?! But then, we can expect anything from folks with such a long history of making really bad decisions.
Still, it really looks like the all have gone completely insane!
Then there is the embarrassing standing ovation coming out of Europe and the Ukraine. I really am embarrassed for them. They are rejoicing at the attempted removal of one of the last mentally sane and secular regimes in the Middle-East. Don’t these European “leaders” realize that if Syria is replaced by a Caliphate of Takfiristan all hell will really brake loose for Europe? I am amazed at how blind these people are…
Now let’s look at what happened from the point of view of China and the DPRK. First, as I mentioned, I don’t think that Xi felt that the attack during his visit to the USA was a slap or an affront. From another civilized country, maybe. But not from the USA. The Chinese are absolutely under no illusion of the total lack of sophistication and even basic manners of US Presidents. That is not to say that they were not outraged and very concerned. It goes without saying that they also noticed the “coincidence” that The USN has canceled planned port calls in Australia for the USS Carl Vinson and is instead sending the aircraft carrier and attached group towards the Korean Peninsula. They also noticed that this move has been given maximal visibility in the US propaganda machine. One “show of force” in Syria is now followed by another “show of force” in East Asia.
Typical, isn’t it?
If anything, this move will only strengthen the informal but very strong and deep partnership between China and Russia. Just like the Russians, the Chinese will keep on smiling and make very nice statements about international peace and security, negotiations, etc. But everybody who matters in China will understand that the real message of out Washington DC is simple: “now it’s Assad – but you could be next”.
Which leaves the DPRK. I am no mind-reader and no psychologist, but I ask myself the following question: what is worse – if the Americans fail to really scare Kim Jong-un or if they successfully do? I don’t have the answer, but considering the past behavior of the DPRK leaders I would strongly suggest that both scaring them and failing to scare them are very dangerous options. The notion of “scare” should not be included in any policies dealing with the DPRK. But instead of that, the dummies in DC are now leaking a story (whether true or not) that the US intelligence agencies have finalized plans to, I kid you not, “eliminate Kim Jong-un“. And just to make sure that the message gets through, the latest US harpy at the UNSC threatens the DPRK with war.
Have they all really gone totally insane in Washington DC?
Do I really need to explain here why war with the DPRK is a terrible idea, even if it had no nuclear weapons?
Conclusion: what happens next?
Simply reply: I don’t know. But let me explain why I don’t know. In all my years of training and work as a military analyst I have always had to assume that everybody involved was what we called a “rational actor”. The Soviets sure where. As where the Americans. Then, starting with Obama more and more often I had to question that assumption as the US engaged in what appeared to be crazy and self-defeating actions. You tell me – how does deterrence work on a person with no self-preservation instinct (whether as a result of infinite imperial hubris garden variety petty arrogance, crass ignorance or plain stupidity)? I don’t know. To answer that question a what is needed is not a military analyst, but some kind of shrink specializing in delusional and suicidal types.
Some readers might think that this is hyperbole. I assure you that this is not. I am dead serious. Not only do I find the Trump administration “not agreement capable”, I find it completely detached from reality. Delusional in other words. You think Kim Jong-un with nukes is bad? What about Obama or Trump with nukes? Ain’t they much, much scarier?
So what can the world do?
First, the easy answer: the Europeans. They can do nothing. They are irrelevant. They don’t even exist. At least not in the political sense.
Some countries, however, are showing an absolutely amazing level of courage. Look at what the Bolivian representative at the UNSC dared to do:
And what a shame for Europe: a small and poor country like Bolivia showed more dignity that the entire European continent. No wonder the Russians have no respect for the EU whatsoever.
What Bolivia did is both beautiful and noble. But the two countries which really need to step up to the plate are Russia and China. So far, it has been Russia who did all the hard work and, paradoxically, it has been Russia which has been the object of the dumbest and most ungrateful lack of gratitude (especially from armchair warriors). This needs to change. China has many more means to pressure the USA back into some semi-sane mental state than Russia. All Russia has are superb military capabilities. China, in contrast, has the ability to hurt the USA where it really matters: money. Russia is in a pickle: she cannot abandon Syria to the Takfiri crazies, but neither can she go to nuclear war with the USA over Syria. The problem is not Assad. The problem is that he is the only person capable, at least at this point in time, to protect Syria against Daesh. If Assad is removed, Syria falls and Iran is next. Russia absolutely cannot afford to have Iran destroyed by the Anglo-Zionists because after Iran, she will next. Everybody in Russia understands that. But, as I said, the problem with military responses is that they can lead to military escalations which then lead to wars which might turn nuclear very fast. So here is my central thesis:
You don’t want Russia to stop the USA by purely military means as this places the survival of of mankind at risk.
I realize that for some this might be counter-intuitive, but remember that deterrences only works with rational actors. Russia has already done a lot, more than everybody else besides Iran. And if Russia is not the world’s policeman, neither is she the world savior. The rest of mankind also needs to stop being a silent bystander and actually do something!
Russia and China can stop the US, but they need to do that together. And for that, Xi needs to stop acting like a detached smiling little Buddha statue and speak up loud and clear. That is especially true since the Americans show even less fear of China than of Russia.
[Sidebar: the Chinese military is still far behind the kind of capabilities Russia has, but the Chinese are catching up really, really fast. Just 30 years ago the Chinese military used to be outdated and primitive. This is not the case today. The Chinese have done some tremendous progress in a record time and their military is now a totally different beast than what it used to be. I have no doubt at all that the US cannot win a war with China either, especially not anywhere near the Chinese mainland. Furthermore, I expect the Chinese to go full steam ahead with a very energetic military modernization program which will allow them to close the gap with the USA and Russia in record time. So any notions of the USA using force against China, be it over Taiwan or the DPRK, is an absolutely terrible idea, sheer madness. However, and maybe because the Americans believe their own propaganda, it seems to me like the folks in DC think that we are in the 1950s or 1960 and that they can terrify the “Chinese communist peasants” with their carrier battle groups. What the fail to realize is that with every nautical mile the US carriers make towards China, the bigger and easier target they make for a military which has specialized in US carrier destruction operatons. The Americans ought to ask themselves a simple question: what will they do if the Chinese either sink or severely damage one (or several) US Navy carriers? Go to nuclear war with a nuclear China well capable of turning many US cities into nuclear wastelands? Really? You would trade New York or San Francisco for the Carl Vinson Strike Group? Think again.]
So far China has been supporting Russia, but only from behind Russia. This is very nice and very prudent, but Russia is rapidly running out of resources. If there was a sane man in the White House, one who would never ever do something which might result in war with Russia, that would not be a problem. Alas, just like Obama before him, Trump seems to think that he can win a game of nuclear chicken against Russia. But he can’t. Let me be clear he: if pushed into a corner the Russian will fight, even if that means nuclear war. I have said this over and over again, there are two differences between the Americans and the Russians
- The Russians are afraid of war. The Americans are not.
- The Russians are ready for war. The Americans are not.
The problem is that every sign of Russian caution and every Russian attempt to de-escalate the situation (be it in the Ukraine, with Turkey or in Syria) has always been interpreted by the West as a sign of weakness. This is what happens when there is a clash between a culture which places a premium on boasting and threatening and one which believes in diplomacy and negotiations.
[Sidebar. The profound cultural differences between the USA and Russia are perfectly illustrated with the polar difference the two countries have towards their most advanced weapons systems. As soon as the Americans declassify one of their weapon systems they engage into a huge marketing campaign to describe it as the “bestest of the bestest” “in the world” (always, “in the world” as if somebody bothered to research this or even compare). They explain at length how awesome their technology is and how invincible it makes them. The perfect illustration is all the (now, in retrospect, rather ridiculous) propaganda about stealth and stealth aircraft. The Russians do the exact opposite. First, they try to classify it all. But then, when eventually they declassify a weapons system, they strenuously under-report its real capabilities even when it is quite clear that the entire planet already knows the truth! There have been any instances when Soviet disarmament negotiators knew less about the real Soviet capabilities than their American counterparts! Finally, when the Russian export their weapons systems, they always strongly degrade the export model, at least that was the model until the Russians sold the SU-30MKI to India which included thrust vectoring while the Russian SU-30 only acquired later with the SU-30SM model, so this might be changing. Ask yourself: did you ever hear about the Russian Kalibr cruise missile before their first use in Syria? Or did you know that Russia has had nuclear underwater missiles since the late 1970s capable of “flying under water” as speeds exceeding 230 miles per hour?]
Russia is in a very difficult situation and a very bad one. And she is very much alone. European are cowards. Latin Americans have more courage, but no means to put pressure on the USA. India hopes to play both sides. Japan and the ROK are US colonies. Australia and New Zealand belong to the ECHELON/FIVE EYES gang. Russia has plenty of friends in Africa, but they more or less all live under the American/French boot. Iran has already sacrificed more than any other country and taken the biggest risks. It would be totally unfair to ask the Iranians to do more. The only actor out there who can do something in China. If there is any hopes to avoid four more years of “Obama-style nightmare” it is for China to step in and tell the US to cool it.
In the meantime Russia will walk a very fine like between various bad options. Her best hope, and the best hope of the rest of mankind, is that the US elites become so involved into fighting each other that this will leave very little time to do any foreign policy. Alas, it appears that Trump has “figured out” that one way to be smart (or so he thinks) in internal politics is to do something dumb in external politics (like attack Syria). That won’t work.
Maybe an impeachment of Trump could prove to be a blessing in disguise. If Mike Pence becomes President, he and his Neocons will have total power again and they won’t have to prove that they are tough by doing stupid and dangerous things? Could President Pence be better than President Trump? I am afraid that it might. Especially if that triggers a deep internal crisis inside the USA.
The next four years will be terrible, I am sorry to say. Our next hope – however thin – for somebody sane in the White House might be for 2020. Maybe Tulsi Gabbard will run on a campaign promise of peace and truly draining the swamp? Maybe “America first” will mean something if Gabbard says it? Right now she seems to be pretty much the only one refusing the accept the “Assad did it” nonsense. So maybe she can provide the mix of peace and progressive social policies so many Americans really want? Maybe she could become the first woman President for all the right, rather then wrong, reasons. I don’t know. 2020 is still very, very far away, let’s just hope we all make it to that date before some imbecile in DC decides that war with Russia is a good idea.
What is certain is that the Democrat vs. Republican and Conservative vs Liberal dichotomy only serves to perpetuate a system which manages to betray the values of BOTH the Left and the Right. This is paradoxical because it is pretty darn clear that most Americans want their country to be at peace, to stop being constantly at war, and with civilized social and labor standards. Sure, the hardcore libertarians still believe that laisser-faire is a great solution, even if that hands all the power to corporations and even if that leaves the individual citizen defenseless against the oligarchy. But bet you that even hardcore libertarians would prefer “statism” (as they would say) with peace than “statism” with war. Likewise, many hardcore progressives want to severely limit the freedoms of many Americans (small business entrepreneurs, gun owners), but even they would prefer peace without rules and regulations than war without rules and regulations. So I think that the possibly unifying platform could be expressed in the notion of “peace and civil rights”. That is something which the vast majority of Americans can agree upon. Even the Black Lives Matter folks should agree to that kind of “peace and civil rights platform”. That, I think, ought to be the priority of the Federal government – dismantle the war machine and dismantle the state repression machine: a full pull-out of US forces deployed worldwide combined with a full restoration of civil and human rights as they were before the 9/11 false flag. And let the States deal with all the other issues.
Alas, I am afraid that the plutocracy in power will never allow that. The way the crushed Trump in one month tells me that they will do that to anybody who is not one of their own. So while hope is always a good thing, and while I like dreaming of a better future, I am not holding my breath. I find a sudden and brutal collapse of the Anglo-Zionist Empire followed by a break-up of the USA (as described here) far more likely.
We better prepare ourselves for some very tough times ahead.
Our only consolation is that all the dramatic events taking place right now in the USA are signs of weakness. The US elites are turning on each other and while the Neocons have broken Trump, this will not stop the fratricidal war inside the US plutocracy. Look at the big picture, at how the empire is cracking at every seam and remember that all this is taking place because we are winning.
Imperialism will die, discredited and hated by all those who will have to live through the upcoming collapse of the US-based AngloZionist Empire. Hopefully this time it will be the last empire in history and mankind will have learned its lesson (it would be about time!).
There is another explanation about the “missing” tomahawk missiles:
The United Sates is lying about the quantity it fired.
Why would anyone believe ANYTHING Washington says, including how many missiles were actually fired? The quantity 59 could easily just be a fake number put out by Washington to create continued confusion and conjecture.
missing comma?: “Hopefully this time it will be the last empire in history[,] and mankind will have learned its lesson (it would be about time!).”
there is also a verb prob towards in the second third.
option you left out: maybe T is letting the deep state celebrate him/his deeds in order to later disclose the truth and terminally embarrass them, their media, and their parasitic politicians, includ.the EU/japanese minions for rushing to embrace the false-flag non-sense. A vindicative type like T always wants revenge, and he’ll never forget the deep state did everything to destroy him. He’s not gonna remain their lapdog…
Well Trump managed to hang a noodle on my ear for awhile. Saker, your son told it perfectly, as I a former cautiously optimistic supporter have now made the 180. Prayer is neccesary more than ever.
AS the dust settles, it appears that Trump has successfully proven that, once again, Might Makes Right. One missile barrage was what it took to make China and Russia kneel to the Hegemon and accept vassalage. Xi ran home to China to do Trump’s bidding, bringing NK to heel. Russia said some harsh words after the barrage, but then declared that they will not raise a finger to defend Syria (ie open invitation to the US do to whatever it wants) – and now Russia is reportedly getting ready to agree to no fly zones in Syria!!!
Trump acts like a complete buffoon, but don’t underestimate this man. Machiavelli would have loved the guy.
Paul, when a guy becomes a big joke and clown he will never recover. And that’s what has happened to Trump. Besides his destiny will be economic disaster before 2020.
Paul, that is a superficial analysis. No responsible leader are reactionary. They access, try to find a peaceful solution first. They will even bending backwards. Just like you retract your fist before you strike out. That give you time to staging your army and prepare your public.
I see nothing wrong with what Xi and Putin doing right now. Both of them are re-positioning themselves with new knowledge of US under Trump.
Is war, not boxing with Marquess of Queensberry Rules… No rational actor would stomp out declaring war – instead, it seems, that everybody is going to pretend for a little while – and keep some proforma dialogues going – that was the case during W2 you know, diplomacy/spying, same thing sort of in wartime, that never stopped. Got pretty rough though…
Anyway it’s obvious what they are up against, and they can not fail to see it, so they are preparing to change the empire or the perceptions the empire has of itself, or the perceptions of objective real forces…
That has a name, friend.
No. This is not boxing.
if you watch info war video posted by Bro 99 on previous page, you will say they talk about the striking of Syria when Xi was in China as PSY-OP and they were really proud of Trump’s performance.
To give you a reference point, Peruvian President said he was treated like a king when he visit China last year. If you ask a Nepalese, he will tell you China treat his country as equal. In China killing a chicken showing it to the visiting head of state only happen when in extreme heated of conflict if it is ever.
If you want to do business or work with some one you treat them with respect.
After Xi left, Tillerson told media what Xi said What to Trump. Chinese media called out that Trump striking Syria was because he was weak.
Chinese will have last words in this. If Trump think he can intimidate Xi he will find out soon enough if it worked or not.
Is Trump your president? It’s not important but if he is you have greater cause for worry than me.
Go and look at the video where he announces he has just bombed Syria.
Does that look and sound like Trump?
He’s tense, nervous, licking his lips at lot, almost depressed – and he’s reading from a teleprompter? … A TELEPROMPTER? WTF?
Where is the usual Trump braggadocio- “It was GREAT! FANTASTIC! We showed them! They won’t be doing that again in a hurry again I tell you!” “No way will they be using THAT airfield to bomb beautiful little babies with DISGUSTING sarin gas again!”
Watch him walking away from the podium – done for, finished, looking down. …
No wave? Not even a smile??
Was that really Trump speaking – or was it Obama in a new suit?
Because Trump, who already had half the country against him – has now just added 80% of his supporter base to that list. Now his support is Hilary Clinton, John McCain and Lindsay Graham. ..??
You should be Very Worried (in capital letters.)
That speech was forced – tell me again : WHO forces the President of the United States? The Leader of the World? The Most Powerful Man on Earth?
Machiavelli would have called him a puppet.
I think a lot of people in Russia are going to be asking, in the aftermath of Putin’s and Xi’s kneel-down to the power of Trump’s missile barrage, what was this adventure in Syria all about anyway? Make fun of Trump all you want, the guy knows how to intimidate. I think it’s ethically wrong to carry out global policy Trump’s way, and illegal, but when has that ever mattered, right? One hoped, based on Putin’s past words, that he wanted to make it matter. Maybe he just wanted to sell a bunch of weapons while securing a base in Syria.
Saker this is a good analysis except for the reason why the USA can’t
keep any agreements and your totally wrong solution of Russian total surrender . Even irrational persons can make agreements and stick to them, they are just irrational agreements.
Not keeping agreement happens when one is not negotiating with the person who
has the power to make decisions and keep agreements. This is very obvious and well
known by all experienced negotiators etc. for you to say Russia negotiators don’t
know this means they are totally incompetent The reason the USA is not keeping is its agreement is that US presidents, congress etc. have no authority to make any such agreements and therefore can’t keep them even if they wanted to.
The USA is controlled by racist supremacist Jews who rule most of the world through their ruling over the USA. US presidents, congress should not even be consulted in any agreements if you want the to US to keep such agreements. One has to negotiate with those in the USA with decision making authority, racist supremacist, billionaire, Jews, the 40 billionaires who rule America like Sheldon Adelson, George Soros, Rothschild’s, to name few, who also rule most of the world Western Europe etc. through their total control of the USA. If you make an agreement with them it is worth far more than any agreement with any representatives of the US government as you have just proven, as they alone have the power and authority over the USA to make the USA keep any agreement as they give the orders and rule the USA.
Jews brag that they like to use as a negotiating tactic on those like you,
who are terrible negotiators, that they are irrational and must be given their way
because of this. They are in fact very rational and would not be the rulers of
America if they were not.
All Russia has to do is tell the ruling class, racist, supremacist, billionaire Jews, Syria is
ours, Israel is yours, if you break this agreement and make trouble in our area
of influence or any of your vassals do, we will consider it as you breaking
the agreement and you will be the first ones we retaliate against with nuclear weapons,
so all of you 40 billionaires will be destroyed and we will also destroy first,
all Zionist assets around the globe, if you start a war. Break this agreement and it
will be world war 3 and it must be made clear they will cease to exist within
Then there will be instant peace as the 40 billionaires will make sure none of their slaves, America, the UK, France etc will dare to break it. Moving many tactical nukes into Syria for use
against any Israeli, USA, Turkish, Saudi invasions and short ranges nuke missiles aimed
at Israel and Saudi Arabia will show Russian resolve. Russia must make it public they are doing this and show pictures of the nukes in Syria.
Now your suggestion of Russian surrender in Syria will mean the total destruction of the Russian state and the Russian people within 2 years tops.
It’s very simple Russian vital interests, the very existence of Russia and the Russian people are at stake in Syria as are those of the entire world wishing to be free of the racist supremacist Zionist empire.
The vital interests, the very existence of the US and its Zionist masters are not at stake in Syria. If Russia gives in when its vital interest are at stake Russia can look
forward losing all its allies China included very quickly and to tens of ISIS
and al-Qaida terror attacks all over Russia and in Russian cities every day and probably more than 100k plus ISIS and al-Qaida fighters in Russia and a natural gas and gas pipelines from Saudi and Qatar to replace Russian oil and gas exports completely to Europe and the violent overthrow and destruction of Russia as a state with probably more than half its population or more eliminated at best. Organized racist, supremacist, Jewry and their American
slave lap dogs think they can do as they please and Russia won’t do anything because of people who talk like you. If they dare to test Russia’s resolve Nuking Diego Garcia is a good start (demonstration) and should change that mind set. It’s a good target, only military, away from civilians and its destruction removes an important weapons storage depot for the empire. Then if they don’t get the message
nuke any attack of invading forces, sites of missile launches, then the racist, supremacist
Jewish billionaires, then Israel and Zionist global assets, then the USA all
NATO going all the way if that is what they want.
The MAD doctrine worked for 50 plus years people like you who want Russia to abandon it and give in threaten the extinction of all of humanity.
Ι like your analysis, much more realistic than moderates Saker.
Henry Louis Mencken never saw Americans brave in war. There were hundreds of times more cowards and deserters than heroes. But of course Hollywood knows the truth.
Although I can not take issue with you, all you wrote, I see no HOPE in your article. I see only doom and gloom and a maybe.
It is clear that the prophecy of scripture is being fulfilled and that we only need to look to G-d for redemption in all matters. Why you ask?
Because earth is less in size then a grain of sand compared to the size of the entire universe.
Because earth is insignificant and even if the earth disappeared, the universe would not even know it happened nor write about it in the Galactic Times.
And if earth is that insignificant, man is even more insignificant meaning it is all so hopeless from man’s point of view.
So, we think we mean something and we are so arrogant to think we can solve our own problems when are total knowledge as humankind is less then that of a neutrino in comparison to what it took to create our universe and keep it working.
China is not the answer – G-d is the answer. Aliens are not the answer because they will be anti-god, but Yes – they could force the entire planet into submission.
But, since we know that G-d has a plan – that is not going to happen.
So, while you let us know all that you do, do you know and respect all that G-d has reported that will happen and are you in right standing with G-d and do you even mention G-d ever or is G-d just a pasting thought at best with you?
I would love to see you write and article comparing G-d to Trump or whomever. I am being humorous and serious all at the same time.
It all boils down to the following: Satan vs G-d, Good vs Evil, Believers vs unbelievers. Hot vs Cold.
If anyone does not take a side and act on it properly, all they are is collateral damage in a war far greater then rulers of nations.
So, what do you have to say about all this? I would love to know.
Like I said business as usual we are told by Christ not to put trust in kings, princes, or principalities. But we still think we have a voice in this republic so we vote. All the prophecies are happening right before our eyes. I firmly believe Trump was who they really wanted in office all along.
You lost me when you called President Trump and International war criminal.
President Trump took an oath to uphold the Constitution of the United States of America. He never took an oath to uphold International Law, which is nothing more than dictates made by international and global tyrants who have no use for our Constitution whatsoever. The United Nations has no use for Israel or for the United States of America and if you claim to be a global citizen instead of an American citizen then you are a traitor to your country.
Do you really believe that these globalists who sit around and make all these international laws care about whether you live or die? If you do, then you are just fooling yourself. They care about enriching themselves at the expense of all others while bringing down the very nation that feeds the rest of the world.
There is no such thing as International Law. There are only un-elected dictators who thumb their noses in the face of the U.S. constitution while mooching off of the American taxpayer for their own personal gain. They have no military, they have no legitimate court and they only have the opinions of other tyrants and dictators the world over to decide anything and they rarely agree unless it’s for the purpose of stealing from the American taxpayer and using military force to confiscate land from Israel.
The UN Charter is a treaty ratified by the US, and thus constitutionally ‘the highest law in the land’.
There are various other agreements which the US has signed on to.
A criminal does not have to acknowledge a law to be judged as having broken it.
They care about enriching themselves at the expense of all others while bringing down the very nation that feeds the rest of the world.
I assume you’re referring to the US as the nation that feeds the world. Are you aware that the US assists starving Yemenites? That’s the opposite of feeding. Are you also aware that the US military used/uses depleted uranium ammunition in the ME (as well in Syria)? The uranium doesn’t just poison people, it poisons their food, too.
President Trump took an oath to uphold the Constitution of the United States of America. He never took an oath to uphold International Law, which is nothing more …
Basically you’re confirming the assumption that the US (this includes politicians as well as citizens) cannot be trusted. According to your statement the Kellogg–Briand Pact (Kellogg a US citizen and the Pact ) is a worthless piece of paper – despite it’s ratification by the US senate (85 to 1; Supremacy Clause). Usually US politicians like to deceive people by making them believe that signing a treaty is internationally binding and afterwards trying to extricate themselves from the contract by pointing out the missing of a ratification. It’s quite a smart trick to fool people once in a while, but at some point in time people get smarter and recognize the deception.
Allow me to provide some less polite truths about the Exceptionals and Indispensables. Make sure to keep a lid on your blood pressure, OK ? Great thanks to Anonymous who posted this excellent submission in another thread here recently:
The “1000lb gorilla” issue that American propagandists here (including Donald Trump) obscure is American Dollar Imperialism.
Because the US Dollar is the world’s only reserve currency, America can devour enormous amounts of products and services from the rest of the world in exchange for the worthless toilet paper known as the US Dollar and treasury bills.
As Mike Whitney has explained, America’s Dollar Imperialist system is one where “Washington can control the world’s energy supplies and force the world to trade in dollars, it can spend well in excess of what it produces and not be held to account. It’s like having a credit card you never have to pay off.
That’s a racket Uncle Sam is prepared to defend with everything he’s got, even nukes.”
Defending Dollar Imperialism
Michael Hudson has thus stated that America has extracted the *greatest free lunch* in history because of this Dollar system:
And Vladimir Putin–whom many people here think that Trump is “friendly” to–has bluntly described the United States as a parasite.
US is ‘parasite’ on global economy, Russian PM Vladimir Putin says https://www.sott.net/article/232865-US-is-parasite-on-global-economy-Russian-PM-Vladimir-Putin-says
That is what underlies America’s economic relationship to the world–whether that be to China, Mexico, or whatever country the Americans are whining about.
Like most demagogues, Trump is playing the Nationalist card in order to divert attention from this parasitic American system–and predictably channel American anger onto foreign scapegoats to blame for domestic problems.
Trump’s hostility towards Muslims, Mexicans, Chinese, etc. are all part of a larger tactic: promote “2-minutes of hate” against foreign nations/groups in order to politically cover for American Empire and its capitalist system. Mussolini and Hitler would certainly approve of this political scam.
In this sense, Trump is merely the flip side of the coin of Clinton.
Whereas Clinton peddles anti-Russian hate, Trump stokes anti-Chinese, anti-Mexican, and anti-Islam hate! Such is the nature of America’s phony democracy and the bogus “choices” that it offers.
Americans complaining about “foreigners taking our jobs” is a pathetic self-pitying attempt to avoid facing the fact that America exploits foreign workers in order to reap greater profits for its corporations.
The Americans are fundamentally a nation of militant parasites with a sense of economic entitlement that no knows limits.
“Poor innocent America is being taken advantage by those evil-doing foreigners!” (Just ignore how America exploits foreign workers or bombs, invades, and loots their nations.)
This is essentially how Americans see their relationship to the world, whether that be in terms of economic or military issues.
The Americans combine nationalist delusion with a pathological sense of their own righteous victimhood. It is so Orwellian that it’s comical.
Only in this particular way is America truly great and truly exceptionalist.
Illuminating as always. Particularly the concept of the US being mentally ill. Which kinda puts ALL of us in a very dangerous situation. I unfortunately thought Trumpf (sic) would maybe be true to his word. Then i remembered what team he is on. As an Australian it’s very sad to see our beautiful country being sold out to Imperialist interests. The British used us to test nukes, the Americans use us as there ears and we gain nothing from any of this. I’m not sure if there is any comfort in your words, but there is at least some truth. Thank you Saker. God bless.
.. who is the president is indifferent, it doesn’t no matter, the system was dominated by the money.. it’s not possible to back old times.. there is a only way to recover democracy: it’s need to share political power with the people .. we must create a new model of political representation .. we have not done this yet because the politicians (leaders of the people) think they can reform the actually system .. they can not ..
Nice article. However, I disagree that Khan Sheikhoun has no strategic value. It is only a few kilometers from the front line and very likely plays an active role on the supply lines of the rebels. Also, in the days after the alleged gas attacks there have been reports of new air attacks on the city.
My impression is that the Chinese were mainly obsessed with their status as a superpower equal to the US. So they polished any suggestion away that Trump had been rude to his guest.
I don’t expect China to speak up. Any too open disagreement with the US would harm their economic interests and that would harm their long term perspective to build their army and get in a position where they can stand up to the US.
Unfortunately Russia is not in a similar position as it is America’s favorite whipping boy. Although Putin is sometimes making it worse by being too antagonistic.
I get the impression that the Saker doesn’t get how the EU works. Brussels’ unelected gnomes are the way the US controls the European states. This became very visible after the MH17 disaster when – after he made a few very effective anti-Russian statements – Timmermans suddenly became the number two in the European Commission. Until then he wasn’t even the official candidate of the Dutch government, When states deviate too much from the preferred model they are marginalized and demonized. At the moment it happens to Hungary and Poland.
The Illuminati wants to destroy America in a way that will look like an accident.
When America is taken-out then they will initiate the one world government; one currency (electronic),
one set of laws, one religion (Luciferian) giving Satan the majority of souls that will join him in Hell.
Pence, I think is the one they want running the White House.
Pence looks like a Brazilian-Nazi test tube experiment.
John Wayne is not a relevant exemple of American heroe.
He’s an old one from the 50s and 60s.
After, it was first Clint Eastwood in the 70s
And De Niro, Pacino or Stalone in 80s
And then Bruce Willis in the 90s
Nicolas Cage(I laugh) in the 2000s
Now, the tough boy of american soldier is a….. new zealander… Russel Crow.
But if USA can buy all the Crow they need, it seems that it can’t produce them no more… :)
Do they realise that?
Great facts, the FS3 is seconding. We wrote about the deployed EW-System Krasukha-4 already in 2015: https://farsight3.wordpress.com/2015/11/09/8ung-9-10/
Another point you may consider is that Trump gave his military hardliners a chance to prove better in releasing their “59 red balloons”. The fact that 2/3 of them disappeared out of thin air and didn’t reach their predetermained targets might cause some headscratching among those pitbulls in the pentagon. By allowing this stunt Trump took off lots of pressure from him…
– from those hardliners
– from the nasty MSM
FS3 thinks that there was a deal behind closed doors, brokered together with Israel, who received a recognition of Jerusalem (precisely, only half of it – LOL) by Moscow on Thursday – just hours before the CMs homed into Syrian airspace.
As far as N-Korea is concerned, the Chinese got some offer, so they could fasten the chain on Kim Yong again…
It’s a political tug of wars, that will hopefully not turn out to be a hot war. A new COLD WAR with two blocks is a more likely outcome, as this may be the last straw of blocking and postponing the globalization by megacompanies.
Huh? “the last empire in history”? “mankind will have learned its lesson”? Hope springs eternal, isn’t it?
Meanwhile China is watching…and waiting… while building its economic muscle. If they will not miscalculate with NORK and Spratlys…
And China will support Russia only to the extent of preventing its subjugation and only to forestall of “being next” before it is ready.
WHO REALLY LAUNCHED TOMAHAWK MISSILES in SYRIA? US or ISRAEL? – Popeye is the name of a family of air-to-surface missiles developed and in use by Israel, of which several types have been developed for Israeli and export users. A long-range submarine-launched cruise missile variant of the Popeye Turbo has been speculated as being employed in Israel’s submarine-based nuclear forces. The United States operates the Popeye under a different designation according to US naming conventions as the AGM-142 Have Nap.
As always from the Saker, a welcome and correct (adherence to reality) response. Thank you, as always. I encourage you to join discussions with Debbie Lesignon, aka The Sane Progressive. Easily Googled, please do so and watch a video or two of hers. Thank you in advance… Daniel Geery, http://www.voteutah.us.
I watched both brother movies, with english subtitles (available in youtube and dailymotion). Is this man, Saker, the typical Russian hero?
I am Turkish, and, we also have historical figures and legends that resembles his mentality, his behaviour, even looks. John Wayne is certainly comical by Turkish culture but I would say Clint Eastwood in good, bad, and ugly would also be closer to Turkish heart
The funny thing about that is that the Clint Eastwood pantomime figure seems, to me, ‘White’, Christian and University educated, also well read, to have neither heart nor mind. Are you saying that Turkey, in imitation of Hollywood has been in search of the perfect vacuum since it began?
Good one, Franz!
IMHO: The unbridled hostility to nearly every other being comes from the stark, erroneous perception that one has been plopped into a beastly jungle or Southwestern desert and abandoned by the Creator, like some nasty scorpion.
This cosmic emptiness causes a loathing of the self and nearly every other abandoned being that that self (villains and heroes alike, in the typical Spaghetti Western….) comes into contact with, which expresses itself with a series of “me against the Universe” violent acts of nearly all concerned, against nearly all others in that bleak, forbidding landscape.
The presumably similarly abandoned moviegoer is expected to accept and lap up this series of empty acts of violence in fulfillment of his or her own self-loathing and “parental” (cosmic) abandonment, and usually does!
Although there is some sex thrown in, it is usually the feeblest sort of attempt at love in the cosmic void portrayed on the screen.
The real orgasmic action comes from explosions of fratricidal and genocidal violence and destruction, that although senseless, give great psycho-sexual fulfillment to the tortured souls on the screen and in the audience, who, for the most part, lap it all up, in the movie theaters of Empire, whether Anglo-American, or Ottoman.
“The Chinese have done some tremendous progress in a record time and their military is now a totally different beast than what it used to be. ”
And no small thanks to the Clinton’s for that!
I remember ol Bill let them buy firefinders – and I remember the builders cursing the deal as stupid and as treason… my ears. real.
I remember when Chinese labor at Chinese wages in California cut up Kaiser Fontana and shipped it to China…
Politics! I was in the union that lost the jobs. Mine included, with the loss of pension too.
The Chinese people(s) learned a very very long time ago that contradiction(s) … weakness/strength … dialectic(s) … weakness/strength … given enough time without intervention … without hostility and violence … would work itself/themselves out.
The West has yet to learn this lesson.
Does anybody know what President Xi really said to Trump when told of the missile attack over cake with Trump?
Trump says Xi ‘agreed it was ok’….
It is all what He said what he said so far. I would not worry about it. I can tell you from my reading of Chinese social media, Chinese public knows that the chemical weapon is a set up, Syrian government did not do it.
After Xi left, Chinese media said Trump was weak:
Here it is from NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/08/world/asia/china-xi-jinping-president-trump-xinhua.html
Sorry, I am not able to find original article on XinHua.
Url’s provided lead to 503:badgateway error, please provide proper urls – mod.eo
Here is global times form China, http://www.globaltimes.cn/. To my surprise although understandable, some Chinese call it radio active. so take it with a grain of salt as we do with news from Russia, or other parts of world. You will find it is very pro Russia, but sometimes, a few news items do come directly from the west. It will make you raise your eye brow, then it will quickly vanish, and go back to normal.
Another one is scmp.com from Hong Kong which some times has a questionable foreigner or two publishing nonsense. It is mostly neutral and Alibaba is its owner.
Thanks Mod for checking.
Here is the Hong Kong South China Morning Post owned by Alibaba. http://www.scmp.com/frontpage/international They are more less neutral.
By the way, the global time has a habit (quite often) of go “503”. Refresh a few times, or wait a few minutes will solve the problem.
I thought it was very tacky and lacking table manners for trump to repeat what President Xi allegedly said over dinner.
Don’t have a link to verify, but I recall Xi’ s response was only a general ‘ agreement’ on the immorality of using chemical weapons – not a specific endorsement of the US attack.
The kind of equivocation used to deflect from potential misuse of any alleged agreement.
Of course, the liar will always spin the equivocation in the most advantageous direction.
This seems to be what has happened here.
Or Trump’ s own narcissism prevented him from picking up the subtle but essential difference.
Hi, want to subscribe for the news letters but can not see an option on website for it.
European are cowards.
BS, European politicians have been subverted, bribed and blackmailed by the US and their own – European – large national/international financial institutions and corporations. European citizens have been deceived by the well known games of “divide and conquer” and “bread and games”. If Europeans are cowards, what are US citizens?
This is paradoxical because it is pretty darn clear that most Americans want their country … and with civilized social and labor standards.
Civilized social and labor standards will never be introduced. Automation will cause for even more people being dispensable.
…a full pull-out of US forces deployed worldwide combined with a full restoration of civil and human rights as they were before the…
Which human rights are you referring to? Human rights of US citizens or of the people all over the world? If you’re referring to the latter then you must be kidding? Is using chemical weapons (Agent Orange) compatible with human rights? Did the School of the Americas – now Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation – ever teach ethics? If wars started by lies (Gulf of Tonkin, the Nayirah testimony, …) can be classified as wars of aggression, then those acts and their results are hardly promoting human rights at all.
Amazingly good analysis.
You didn’t directly address the possibility that this was a PR event to get the Dems and Neocons off Trump’s back about Russia. The fact that Trump gave the Russians notice and that there was minimal damage to the airbase support this idea.
Perhaps it is wishful thinking on my part, holding on to the idea that Trump may actually do some good instead of becoming yet another pawn of the Neocons.
Ok. The US is a mean imperialist colonialist selfish state. But if Assad is such a nice rational guy why does he not allow a Saudi oil and gas pipeline through Syria?
I’m sure they’d be a nice payoff for Syria too, and security. Everyone wins, except Russia. Doesn’t make sense.
I’m not sure being “nice” and “rational” have anything to do with each other. But as to the pipeline. Allowing it would harm Syria’s friends (Syria’s “only” friends ). And it would lead to Saudi,Qatari,and most importantly US ,control in Syria. So the “payout” for Syria isn’t worth the downside.In that way Assad was being pretty rational.
Because it’s not about a pipeline – and it’s certainly not about a pipeline that could go Iraq + Turkey and bypass Syria altogether.
Look at a map.
BTW – remind me…. why should Syria put “Saudi/Qatari” national interests ahead of their own national security?
a former Russian military radioelectronics engineer explains why the theory about 36 of the Tomahawks being “disabled” by EW is highly implausible.
in Russia, but Chrome Translate makes it more or less understandable.
The only problem with this analysis is that it calls out the USA as a non-rational actor and then proceeds to treat the USA as a rational actor. The only thing standing in the way of forcing Russia into a hot war is selling the program to the American people. Trump, or whatever stand-in is occupying the White House, is irrelevant. Trump is just like a ventriloquist dummy, who may not have understood his position earlier, but understands it now. I don’t know who the deep state is, but cannot imagine it is any of the mere Neocons. The American military can take them out in a heartbeat. No, the gentlemen who call the shots, I believe are invisible and obviously would not be affected by all of the worst scenarios attached to war. THey are invisible and in very hardened bunkers. The only thing they don’t know, I believe, is how far they can push the American people. Yes. The Europeans are cowards, and thus far, it looks like the Americans are too. But, and this is the sticking point, when push comes to shove, are the Americans cowards? No one knows.
Indeed, DM. I’m in rural Oregon right now with a sister, and from her reports I deduce that the locals don’t even know themselves!
Double meaning: They don’t know who among themselves are real people or cowardly nothings who are purely for show, and neither do more than a tiny handful know their own self.
A mother tied to a local militia watches liberal news programs “to try to figure out my daughter”…..who recently graduated and is going on to get her masters. She realizes her daughter is among what she calls “the libtards”.
Mom returns from work (and a stop at the bar, for beer and the latest local “grapevine” news) and then comes home and listens to a voicemail message by the militia, saying an action will soon be detailed for her to take.
“Shit!”, she says to my sister. “Looks like I may have to get my guns and go to the “command center” in the next day or so.”
“Who are you going to shoot?”, my sister asks.
“Libtards!” the landlord lady (who just lost her house to foreclosure, but is being advised by friends since childhood in local real estate who to “hang loose” and wait around as a squatter, for “cash for keys” from the foreclosing bank…..) responds, instantly.
The only conclusion my sister is able to come to from watching this unfolding tragi-comedy is that the “Libtards” and their Russophobia are significantly crazier than her landlord lady and her drinking partners and lifelong “friends” in the area, who reportedly spend half their time working out fantasies of hostility derived from “wrong looks” or small slights they regularly perceive to be directed at themselves, among themselves. None of whom are “libtards”.
You get the sense that such a ship of fools might just be sinking????
And a little foresight might be put into preparing a lifeboat or two????
Yet, sis is picking up signals that all concerned are, in small but significant ways, beginning to figure out that they are all, equally, being screwed by the same elites behind both parties and the MSM.
Such is Hope in the Hinterlands.
Thank you Saker for your clear decisive reality. I thought Trump may live up to some of his promises but that is not to be with this Syria attack. That was total arrogance personified by a
n individual who should know better. I could go on but you have hit the nail on the head so I will continue to watch for your reports. Thanks John Buchanan
Now a US Strike On ISIS Chemical Weapons Depot Has Killed Hundreds
The Syrian General Staff said that the US-led coalition struck an ISIS depot storing chemical weapons in Deir ez-Zor on Wednesday, poisoning and killing several hundred people, including civilians.
Oh wow. This was quite well-written! I must ask, are you a Russian citizen? Either way, this was a petty great rundown of what’s been going on for the past few days.
So it’s a mystery, wrapped up in an enigma, double-crossed by a conundrum.
And, the fact Trump has to actually do stuff in this environment makes him … Incompetent, and a new shill for the Neocons and the US deep state.
I guess if you base your world view on “the Neocons and the US deep state” controlling everything, then these scenarios are all you’ll get.
I’d burn out pretty quick if I had to earn a living doing this kind of stuff. Good luck, stay healthy if you can.
“Do I really need to explain here why war with the DPRK is a terrible idea, even if it had no nuclear weapons?”
Err – yes please…. :-) you’re a military analyst and I’d like to hear why a military analyst thinks war with the DPRK is a terrible idea ‘cos I’m pretty sure the “Deep State” thinks it’s a necessary idea.
And thanks for the article, I was wondering what happened to the 36 missiles…. There is however an aspect you haven’t included and that’s the US dollar/petrodollar.
You say in your conclusion above: ” In all my years of training and work as a military analyst I have always had to assume that everybody involved was what we called a “rational actor”.”
…I do not think you should presume that has changed …… that the minds behind what is going on are not “rational.”
This is a comment I posted to RI …( I’ve just copied it over in to save me rethinking it) … and I’d like to know how this aspect fits in with what you’ve described above (or if it’s rubbish, why it’s rubbish.)
“He alluded to his training as an engineer who always followed the facts where they led him.”
I want to play the devil’s advocate for a moment here because it is extremely unlikely that has changed. Tillerson is an engineer who follows the facts where they lead him – hold onto that thought.
Here are some other facts:
We know the US lies – and lies outrageously.
They know we know – and we (ought to) know they know we know.
So it’s time to stop LISTENING to what they say – because they speak ONLY to distract: The more outrageous the lie = the greater the public distraction. We see that right now.
So…. what are facts that Tillerson is following – and where are they leading?
Because they are most certainly not what America or any MSM media SAYS they are.
It is time to watch what they do – ONLY – their actions yell loud, their words are meaningless garble.
How do we make sense of what America is doing? Because we presume “they are just mad” at our own risk not theirs. If we start from the position that they are not mad and do know what they are doing – then, what are they doing and why are they doing it?
It’s the dollar. And the situation is getting REALLY bad cos their actions are getting desperate. Bombing Syria, threatening pre-emptive strikes on North Korea… this is desperation. MASSIVE military buildups in the SCS, Hormuz and eastern Europe, ie., the world’s biggest trading points.
Now, (approx’s) 60% of the world’s population and 40% of the world’s trade in oil, goods, services and lending is now conducted no longer exclusively in USD but also in gold and own currencies. All dealing not-in-USD costs the US economy – and that “not-in-USD” dealing is rising by the month.
When the dollars coming in to America are less than the dollars America needs to pay her bills and service her debt – that is economic collapse. Remember – the richest nation on earth has the greatest bills on earth, the MIC that’s bigger than the rest of the world combined AND with private suppliers has equivalent bills to pay, the nation with the greatest debt greater pays equivalent interest on that debt. They are running out of dollars. Rather – the western financial system, their lifeblood, is no longer creating sufficient dollars to allow them to keep printing as they need.
•For the first time in its history the US is forcing NATO members to pay their 2%. They’ve even drawn in little Montenegro – what’s their 2%?
•Tillerson asked the G7 – “why should American taxpayers care about the Ukrainian conflict?” that’s their own US-installed puppet.
This is American penny-pinching – serious penny-pinching.
(I think) the situation has now reached the point where America has two options: fail – or war.
She does nothing about it – or she uses her Mightiest Military Machine This World Has Ever Seen to force all the world back on “only-the-USD.” To do that she needs to force China and Russia back to only the dollar – do that, and the rest of the countries supporting their new financial system will fall in line too.
But for war she needs (i) support at home and (ii) the support of her allies. It doesn’t matter that “no-one believes her.” It matters that they support her – because this time, quite literally, everyone not for her will be against her.” …..
All Russia and China need do is wait – wait AND avoid all out war because the US is self-destructing economically. What they’re doing won’t remove the US or the USD from the world but it will break the dollar’s (and therefore the US’s) global hegemony – in line with China’s stated goal to be the largest economy in the world, and Russia’s to be a player in a multi-polar world.
But will the “Deep State” continue to play their game and wait?
The longer the US waits, the worse the situation gets for her – already we see the G7 (the US’s biggest and best allies) refused to increased sanctions against Russia – and now countries are publicly condemning her actions. ….I’m sure most have always condemned them privately – but speaking publicly will encourage …. more dominoes to fall.
An excellent analysis! I have come to nearly the same conclusions myself. I base my conclusions on long experience with the sheep and their herders and, having been a newspaper reporter in Washington, with the insular idiots who run the government. Eventually, the factors you have mentioned and in conjunction with growing economic problems will cause an explosion in the United States and civil disobedience will manifest itself. And as a final thought, who owns WikiLeaks? I know but I doubt if Washington does and their serious intellectuals seem to have missed the identity of the actual employers of Edward Snowden.
Trump is the American Gorbatschov. And just like Gorbatschov involuntarily broke the USSR, Trump will – agajnst his will – break the US empire.
When looking at how stupid and/or crazy Obama’s and now Trump’s military strategies have been, the only logical explanation is that they’ve been told to do this stuff on purpose by their masters. Why do you throw out that theory completely? Truly it’s the only thing that makes sense. Even egomaniacs are smart enough to know when they are threatening their life and the lives of everyone around them. Unless they are completely corrupt and controlled and know something about the agenda that the rest of us don’t know. It IS order out of chaos or, worse yet, the prelude to Agenda 21/2030 eugenics. It’s not like we don’t all know the elite have their underground bunkers stocked and ready to go. Why don’t you research that avenue a little. If it’s all a scripted dog and pony show, including Putin, where does that put us? Think about that for a minute.
Interesting, but one other option, the missing missiles where sent to hit something else. Something unreported.
I believe your premise, even in these bizarre times, violates the Law of Occam’s Razor.
The Hegemon could have saved face by stating that multiple missiles were aimed at a single target.
I am curious to know why this wasn’t broadcast for public consumption?
Fantastic analysis! Juste great and as well my thoughts.
Just brilliantly put 👍
You had me until you called John Wayne a fake! Whoa! Pardner!
He was a great actor And role model.
Better yet, he was a Real cowboy, & football player.
He loved the USA, too.
The rest of your dialogue is quite interesting.
Better late than never I guess.
Attack on Khan Sheikhoun.
“April 4, at 8 a.m*., Abdullah al-Gani and Muaz al-Shami, freelance journalists who have links with radical groups located in Idlib, provided Orient News and Al-Jazeera with the video footage made by the White Helmets. The graphics show the consequences of the alleged chemical attack in Khan Sheikhoun. According to Muazz al-Shami, sarin gas was used in the
“Yesterday, (April 4) from 11:30 am to 12:30 p.m. local time, Syrian aviation made a strike on a large terrorist ammunition depot and a concentration of military hardware in the eastern outskirts of Khan Sheikhoun town,” Russian defense ministry spokesman Igor Konoshenkov said in a statement posted on YouTube.”
“Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem explained that the first reports of the chemical attack appeared several hours before the government airstrike”
* The video footage shows clearly that the sun is high in the sky – it could not have been filmed before 8am. that day. Best guess, stock footage from the White Helmets.
She is entirely too young. In addition, she is from the crowd that has been destroying the property of others. She is a girl, and America has just rejected a woman, with experience. America is not going to be able to be her new building blocks. But she is awfully pretty. Let’s try her in the Congress as a secretary first.
Interestingly that you care to explain the term “not agreement capable” to Americans.
Because, well, isn’t the term almost a quote from the “Godfather”, which is one of the pillars of American identity? “This man just cannot be negotiated with, i am giving up on him” – isn’t it the same ?
This article’s main assertion that the 36 missing TLAMS were jammed by the Russians has been resoundingly debunked in this analysis, which goes far deeper than this Saker one. After examining all of the evidence, the missing TLAMS can only be attributed to the US NAVY, which opens up a scenario that this article is clueless about. In fact, the strike was a one-time fake response in collusion with Syria, China, and Russia. Millions have got Trump wrong and have not been able to see the resistance against the CIA with Trump’s April 6th strike, not to mention, the collusion between Xi, Trump, and Putin- as they couldn’t even see that Flynn’s ‘firing’ was in fact a canary trap set up by Trump, Flynn, and patriots in the intelligence services. If you are wrong from Day 2, you will be wrong on April 6th:
‘8 Reasons Why the April 6th Missile Strike Constitutes Anti-NWO Resistance Between Trump, Xi, and Putin’ – by Joseph Gallagher – Scribd – June 2nd 2017: https://www.scribd.com/document/350024651/8-Reasons-Why-the-April-6th-Missile-Strike-Constitutes-Anti-New-World-Order-Collusion-Between-Trump-Xi-Putin
The Chinese Spring Festival and the Western the yuletide season
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