By Chris Faure for the Saker Blog
The hot question among a number of hot questions is: What will China do?
Is there clarity? I would argue yes there is .. some. The paradox is that West pushes for terms of a new partitioning of the world (democracy summit, unending belligerence, cynical, and hypocritical paranoia), while Russia and China expect terms of surrender. According to China, there has to be payback for past empire atrocities.
In such an environment a kinetic hot war makes little sense because there is no overt military threat against western leadership. I would argue that Russia’s ultimatum is military containment by agreement, as a first step. I would also argue that because we do not have insight into step 2 (military/technical counter-threats), we cannot reason that step 2 is not highly coordinated with China, to the nth degree. It is so that the USA is no longer the world’s only ‘indispensable nation’. They are now dispensable and replaceable in their current form and the hope is that they reform themselves.
As there is much that we do not know in terms of further steps, there is also much that we do not know about how China is going to interrelate. What we do know is that they will be a part of the final dethroning of Western powers’ force for empire. We know this, because they said so and China is dead serious.
Russia made their proposals known. China did too, just today.
Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on the United States to work with China to find out the way of peaceful coexistence between the two major countries. He noted some people in the United States are unwilling to admit that other countries also have the right to development, unwilling to accept the fact that China is growing stronger and making progress, unwilling to agree that China and the United States can achieve mutual benefit and win-win results, and are trying to form a camp to contain and suppress China.
“The wrong words and deeds of the U.S. side not only seriously damage the interests of the two peoples, but also seriously impact world peace and stability” Wang said.
Here are the Chinese statements over the past few days:
Shortly after the Putin/Xi Jingping virtual meeting, this question was posed to Foreign Minister Spokesperson Wang Wenbin. Mr Wenbin is a highly competent diplomat.
Question from TASS: In his virtual meeting with Russian President Putin, President Xi Jinping said China will continue to carry out flexible and diverse cooperation with Russia and other member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization to safeguard security and stability in the region. What challenges are China and Russia facing in this aspect? What can China and Russia do to safeguard regional security?
Wang Wenbin: On December 15, President Xi Jinping had a virtual meeting with Russian President Putin. The two heads of state had an in-depth exchange of views on core and major issues of common concerns including safeguarding regional security, and achieved new, important consensus.
The world is witnessing the combined forces of changes and a pandemic both unseen in a century against the backdrop of complex and profound changes in international and regional landscape. We believe that China and Russia, two permanent members of the UN Security Council, take on an important mission in defending regional peace and stability and promoting development and revitalization of all countries. For some time, certain countries have been drawing ideological lines, building new military blocs and stoking regional tensions, which have all brought grave threats and challenges to regional peace and stability and global strategic stability. China and Russia firmly reject this. We will continue to follow the two leaders’ consensus, take up responsibility, unite all forces that love peace and support peace, and make active contribution to realizing sustained, universal and common security in the region and the wider world.
Certain sentences and words need to be lifted out of ‘diplo-speak’.
Note, the question from the TASS reporter is about regional security. Mr Wenbin, in his response, brought it back to the strategic stability of the wider world.
This sentence: Russia/China take on important mission in defending regional peace and stability and promoting development and revitalization of all countries.
Again, he then speaks about Global Strategic Stability and not only regional.
For some time, certain countries have been drawing ideological lines, building new military blocs and stoking regional tensions, which have all brought grave threats and challenges to regional peace and stability and global strategic stability.
And here is the shocker:
We will continue to follow the two leaders’ consensus, take up responsibility, unite all forces that love peace and support peace, and make active contribution to realizing sustained, universal and common security in the region and the wider world.
The phrase the two leader’s consensus indicates that all plans have been made, everyone stands at the ready, and Putin and Xi Jinping will take the next step probably on a phone call. The fate of the world is now in the hands of Putin and Xi Jinping. It is astonishing that China is subjecting itself to The Consensus of the Two Leaders and shows without a shadow of a doubt that they are acting in full concert, strategically, politically, economically coordinated, and we know militarily as well, we just don’t know to what extent.
Another statement from Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin: This statement is interesting in that it shows the emotion (which I’ve never seen him display) of the Chinese people. They are at the end of their strategic patience as well and this is how they feel.
“The era in which the USA acted arbitrarily in the world under the pretext of democracy and human rights is now over.”
CHINA: “The era in which the USA acted arbitrarily in the world under the pretext of democracy and human rights is now over.”
— ASB News / MILITARY〽️ (@ASBMilitary) December 15, 2021
Currently, the destruction that the Western powers waged on the world, is transparent. Take a look: Pentagon documents reveal ‘deeply flawed’ US air war: report
Russia and China are stepping into alternative world relations still based on the UN Charter and Law, and based on respect between countries, and more than that, they are proving that it is possible since the first discussions of multi-polarity in the world in 2015 and the first public discussions of Belt and Road in 2013. For years now Russia and China tried to help the Western powers out of their sorry state; but the time has come. ‘Gung-ho’ and ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’ seem to be over and at least from China side, this is a tipping point. The Western powers need to face their downright self-inflicted humiliation. This will happen economically by moving the world to a new economic system with new economic tools and will go right through to military intervention should the Western powers continue their arbitrary actions. But nobody will be fighting the ‘West’s War’ and I submit we may see something quite unanticipated by our usual analysis and calculus. It is already unprecedented that Mr. Lavrov published his diplomatic correspondence with France and Germany regarding the Ukraine. It is also unprecedented for draft proposals from Russia to be open to the public at this stage. We are in an unprecedented time.
The fact that both Russia, China, and Iran do not start the shooting, is incontrovertible proof that they are genuine in their statements that they want to bring peace.
China is in, boots ‘n all. If a regional conflagration should break out and it is in Russia’s ballpark (the Ukraine), and Russia can deal with it on her own, China will make sure that the Russian soldiers are the best outfitted and supported of any modern military force that we have ever seen. You will see a voentorg to beat all voentorgs. Russian forces will drink champagne and eat oysters (OK, this is shameless hyperbole, but it makes the point).
Taiwan has simmered down. The latest words there from China in the person of Foreign Minister Wang Yi, is Taiwan’s reunification with China is a question of time. “China must and will be reunified,” he stressed. He noted that there has been growing support for the ‘One-China’ principle around the world, referring to the recent decision by the government of Nicaragua to break ties with Taipei. “Ten days ago, we resumed diplomatic relations with Nicaragua. The total number of countries with [whom China has] diplomatic ties has increased to 181, and the one-China consensus has been consolidated internationally,” he said.
If there is a fight, no matter the size, or the manner of the fight, the Chinese are in and I would argue that they are in right now! Nobody can beat them at producing what is necessary for a fight. Their own aircraft carrier battle groups are out in the ocean through the near Pacific, South China Seas and other seas. One has to get used to how China presents things. Even the media reporting these maneuvers, puts scare quotes around the words “routine drills”. Battle groups are out for scare quoted “routine drills”. They do not say that China is readying herself for a defense of her own basin, in which case Russia will support in the same way that China will support Russia. Will anyone be able to penetrate beyond and inside the first island chain?
So, it is clear that the Russia/China double helix is operating fine currently. Mr Wang is not playing a good cop to Russia’s bad cop. He is making it clear that what is happening is not only a Russian problem, but a problem of the strategic stability in the world, It affects not only Russia, but China as well, and no longer can one entity be allowed to attack others like fish in a barrel.
We cannot think of a multi-front war: the West cannot possibly be that deranged.
Yet, the ludicrous rhetoric in the Western spheres continues apace and distracts from reality. It is hardly worthwhile rebutting every accusation. China is not using much rhetoric currently but we can be sure that they note this rhetoric. Knowing the strategic situation in the world, they are not rebutting. There is no need.
We need men ” … who want to sit on a throne of Chinese skulls …”
Tucker Carlson’s guest: “We don’t need a military that’s woman-friendly, that’s gay friendly” we need men “who want to sit on a throne of Chinese skulls, but we don’t have that now. We can’t get women off of naval vessels, that should be step one but most are pregnant anyway.” pic.twitter.com/9uNzdbx0ON
— nikki mccann ramírez (@NikkiMcR) December 18, 2021
Andrei Martyanov is causing high hilarity about USA representatives that want to ‘kill themselves some Ruskis’ and even offers up a few:
This boy, obviously, despite his tour in Iraq never saw a real war and a real enemy who can actually kill you back even when one is in the bunker inside your own army base.
We can conclude then that the slew of accusations made to Russia, are similar in tone and also in substance, as those made to China. The minds of these accusers cannot contemplate a peaceful world. It seems to be impossible for them. Although Russia is not threatening the Ukraine, and China is not threatening her own Taiwanese province, they believe their belligerent rhetoric can make it so.
Western states are slowly approaching the state of being disconcerted and soon now they will enter a stage of being stunned, as they are now being dictated to on the red lines of the other forces in the world. We can never forget Iran, which showed everyone how to say NO! There will be no conformity to Western red lines. I venture to say that the USA and cronies will not even be allowed to keep operating their Monroe Doctrine. They will not be allowed a sphere of influence. They will only be allowed their space as a pole in multi-polarity. The leftist candidate won the elections in Chile yesterday (although there are questions as to how ‘empire-proof’ he is). The one slogan that was visible is: “If neocolonialism started in Chile, we will end it in Chile”.
Within China, China is looking after China. They are developing their space program, their Belt and Road which is ‘a force for good’ in the world, and building their economy and continuing to create an increasingly varied and better life for their people. The Olympic Games will continue, and in time Taiwan will reunify.
They are also, with Russia and others, building out a new financial system for the world.
What can stop a war at this stage?
- The West has a very strong and simple reason to avoid a new war: They will lose. Their actions are now futile.
- The USA is dying. Xi and Putin can still decide to let it die and continue to stay out of the fray. But they have made the decision to enter a confrontational era. We could speculate as to why as the situation reveals itself.
- China, Asia or the AsiaPacific is ready to end the empirical era. Both Russia and China are ready to end the empirical era in such a way that retaliatory strikes are almost impossible. It is a most complex ballet of threat and counterthreat, coherently managed by the two countries. Russia is not arriving, China is not arriving and Iran is not arriving for the war that the hegemon is inviting them to. How frustrating for them.
What can stop a war? China and Russia, the consensus of the two leaders probably can. I repeat: “The era in which the USA acted arbitrarily in the world under the pretext of democracy and human rights is now over.”
Yankee Go Home!