I had the chance to see a fuller video of the presumed Bayraktar strike. A lot of things look weird:
- It appears that the entire crew ran away after some kind of explosion. Considering the warhead of the Bayraktar, that should not be possible.
- The footage seems to have been filmed from pretty much right above the position (but maybe there was a second, reconnaissance drone filming!).
- The flagwaving inside the Ukraine is reaching truly fantastic proportions, way more than just following the destruction of a single D-30 artillery piece. They are clearly preparing for war (with songs with lyrics like “Bandera is my father, the Ukraine my mother, and I will fight for them” sung by many different groups of people and all over the Ukie media).
- That artillery piece was neither dug in nor camouflaged.
- The Ukies are all over the place with their “information” – they said that the drone was deep inside LDNR airspace only to then declare that its missile was fired from outside LDNR airspace.
- So far neither the LDNR nor the Russians have confirmed that there was a Bayraktar strike (at least as far as I know as of now).
- The explosion itself looks pretty small to me, and I see now secondary detonations from the D-30 shells which must have been pretty close.
And I won’t even go into the fact that the Russian EW systems can track any takeoff from any Ukie base, at least in the eastern Ukraine for sure, and that they have the proven capacity to 1) fry the Bayraktars 2) shoot them down and even 3) force them to land.
The reports from the LDNR do confirm that some strikes did occur, at least two. They also confirm that the Ukies entered the “grey” separation zone.
Frankly, to me this all looks like mostly a political show.
This does not make anything better, by the way, because even if no Bayraktar strikes against the LDNR have occurred (God only knows where this footage was filmed, and we know about the Israelis using footage from Libya to claim that they destroyed a Pantsir in Syria!) the fact that the Ukies are seriously flagwaving means that they, at least, “take full ownership” of that story, even if it is fake.
So whether this is a fake or not is secondary. The crucial thing is that the Ukies have now OFFICIALLY declared that they attacked the LDNR in total violation of all the agreements they signed.
Personally, I think that EVEN IF this is a fake, Russia should declare a no-fly zone over the LDNR, which they can do from Russia, no need to move even a single soldier or piece of gear across the Russian border.
So fake or not fake – the Russians should respond as if it was absolutely real.
We should know more by tomorrow.
Hmm, looks like pretty much every other time Ukraine has huffed & buffed, in the last seven years.
The country is a mess, just how well would it’s degraded institutions hold up in a real war, even against the LNDR alone if they suffer reverses?
Never mind what happens if they have to fight real troops, from the Russian regular forces.
A bit like if someone attacks a bank/shop with a plastic(fake)gun, it does not matter for the law it is considered a real one as your opponent is not supposed to know it is a toy.
Actually, it does matter. The kind of prosecution and eventual sentence for someone that steals a bank with a real gun is different to someone with a fake gun.
Not if they are shot dead in the process.
When that happens you realize that your plans have failed lol!
Here is what they are saying on RT about this incident:
How about having a UN meeting first and ask Yaşar Halit Çevik point blank — “The Ukrainians themselves claim to have violated cease-fire agreements — So whatcha gonna do about it?”
At least they can say they tried before a unilateral no-fly zone.
Yes I thought about that. Using the official statements of the ukrainian government to show that they do not respect the ceasefire and the minsk agreements could be something interesting to do.
Anyway I don’t think Russia will achieve something useful. The west will most likely back kiev saying that the ukrainian side used drones to respond to attacks coming from the LPR and DPR and that kiev is not responsible of the violation of the ceasefire. But at least as you said they will be able to say that they tried.
I am not optimistic because the ukrainian government is talking big about the bayraktar attack. It s a big PR operation whether they used those drones or not and I doubt kiev would do that without nato s support.
You are quite right, the West is stuck with backing the Ukronazis, which they put into power in the first place.
Essentially, that means that however is in power in Kiev can do whatever the hell they want, and the Eurofreaks will always back them, simply because not backing them would be the question: since how long exactly did you get everything about the Ukie narrative wrong? Were you lying since Day 1.
The answer is obvious.
But nobody will go to war for the Ukies either. They will let the Russians beat them and use that as a pretext to feed russophobia further.
It is hard to express in words my disgust for the European ruling classes…
Aren’t the Russians a complex people then? Doesn’t their imposed power do that to them? What do Europeans think??? Is there a text and parallel about Dostoevsky and how much has the approach of the authorities in Russia changed :))?
They are just a bunch of corrupt spineless lackeys of the ANZ. Even if some candidates were sincere about leaving the EU and NATO (Philippot and Asselineau in France, nobody that I know in Spain), which I also doubt, they will never be allowed to win the elections. Only tribal golems like Macron or Zemmour are winning the next elections.
Saker, je vous mets ici le lien de l article qu a ecrit Christelle Neant au sujet de l attaque de l armee ukrainienne sur le Donbass.
Christelle est une journaliste francaise qui vient d obtenir la nationalite russe qui vit en RPD depuis 2015 et qui publie chaque semaine un rapport video detaille des evenements les plus importants qui se deroulent dans le donbas et qui publie également des articles toujours relatifs au donbass directement sur son site donbass insider. C est une personne fiable que je suis depuis des annees donc j ai confiance dans les articles qu elle ecrit.
Voici le lien de son article si ca peut vous apporter quelques informations tant mieux.
Cette prise de contrôle de Staromarievka, a été permise par l’utilisation par l’armée ukrainienne de drones turcs Bayraktar pour la première fois dans le Donbass.
Ceci est inexact. Staromarievka n’était pas défendue, et donc même si (un grand SI) ils ont utilise un Bayraktar ça n’a eu aucun effet sur la prise de Staromarievka.
PS If they took a small village that includes Russian citizens, is that not a bigger problem?
Apparently there are 37 Russian citizens among the people (140 in total) living in the village they took.
im no expert on aviation, but from the basic research i have done the bayraktars can be equiped with laser guided 70mm guided rockets made by rokestan called ‘cirit’ (~1km-8km range w/ 3kg warhead), similar to the DAGR/APKWS guided missiles for the hydra 70 system, the blast in the video looks similar in effect to these..
another alternative is one that has been confirmed was sold to the ukrainians, and that is a MAM (a ‘smart micro munition’), its known they have MAM-Ls with 22kg total weight with maybe a ~5kg warhead weight of comparable range to the cirit
as for the footage, it wouldnt surprise me if the filming drone is ‘buddy lasing’ the target for an armed drone, with the ‘recon drone’ flying well inside LDPR territory and an armed drone firing from from just within ukrainian held territory, that would make the most sense of the statements i have seen (im inclined to believe it was real but agree with there being things that dont quite make sense)
okay, and if that was the case, what was the point of such an ineffective attack?
specifically, was it military or propagandistic?
mix of both probably, they have likely done it multiple times in training, but doing it for real outside of training conditions is valuable experience for using them, justifiyng their cost, etc. as for propagandistic purposes, its already noted they need a distraction, they need to seem like they are in an advantagous position, showing off their new ‘wunderwaffe’ is exactly what they need right now, plus, it may demoralise individuals in the LDPR who dont think they have an effective counter, theres plenty of excuses for it more then good enough for the kiev circus
theres no doubts the strike itself was ineffective, the piece could well be only partialy damaged, but thats the limitation of laser guided missiles of small calibre, and you can only fire an effective shot if you have a laser painting the target untill impact, ether they will begin using them only to go after priority targets where the limited firepower isnt so important, or bring more ‘recon’ drones to increase the firepower within the limited timespan, especialy if they still have turkish officers training them..
Everyone, calm down! This is a planned provocation, fake one, of course, but nontheless designed to provoke Russia’s response. Russian intelligence service, no doubt, will provide a clear picture to people that NEED to know and the response will be appropriate. What the stupididy that passes for Ukranian “government” does not realise is that all this staged hu-ha and flag-waiving at this moment is going to bring them LOTS of problems down the road. There will be no flights zone established over Donbass for anything that is not a commercial airliner and everything else that enters it will be shot down. This is what these morons have achieve with this little stunt. If this was done on NATO’s (i.e. CIA/MI6) orders and initiatives, which looks most likely, as they are deliberately trying to escalate the tensions, (you know, when your days are numbered), this will badly backfire on then as well. Russia is well and truly losing patience with all this garbage that they still try to instigate in Donbass. Reckoning is coming.
Everyone, calm down!
I don’t see anybody particularly existed (so far)
all we are doing is brainstorming and trying to get to the facts.
Probably, Russia doesn’t even need to establish a no-fly zone over Donbass. Yes, they can use the occasion, but they don’t quite need it. The opponent there is way to weak to deserve much devotion. However, Russia can still secretly use her EW capabilities without much noise to end any such “flights”.
These drones were very effective in Libya. The Turk military stopped dead Haftars offensive as it rolled toward the capital. His work for over a year was destroyed in two weeks. The Russians then used EW and AA systems and destroyed all the drones in the theatre. That led to the current stalemate.
The problem for Turkey is most of the components are imported. And the Russians can destroy any and all and there will never be a huge swarm of them because of limited production.
I don’t know how many the Ukrainian army has and who paid for them, or if they can afford just throwing them to a guaranteed loss against the Russian EW. I guess they cannot afford that. That’s why we see all the theater.
12 was the number I read that Erdogan gave them.
Yes it was 12, with another 24 units being considered, possibly for local assembly.
Bayraktars got quite a lot of publicity recently, especially with the victory of Azerbaijan against Armenia. I am wondering if the Turks asked the Ukrainians to release this video as a publicity for Bayraktars…
The market for UAVs is growing, and the competition is very fierce. I know Serbia was recently considering Bayraktars, until they opted for the Chinese rainbows. To seal the deal, China agreed to a technology transfer for a Serbian produced drone called Pegasus. Turkey may have a similar deal with Ukraine, perhaps with combined with “real action” video releases, like this one.
If this is a PR campaign, which it seems to be (what number of drones can give possible them some chance next to the Russian border…), then they will be very careful what the do and keep some distance. Otherwise, it may quickly turn into a very bad campaign. So it won’t have any actual relevance to the civil war there.
On the other hand, this may turn out a very expensive advertisement for Turkey once Russia reduces to dust a lot of Turkey’s interest in the Middle East. A Russian response doesn’t need to be in Ukraine.
The collective West–led by America–have now officially confirmed that they are ruled by insane Armageddonists and delusional psychopaths with a secret deathwish for planetary suicide/mass extinction.
NATO New Plan to Counter Russia in Europe whilst Countering China in Asia. Go Nuclear Almost At Once
God help us all.
Alexander Mercouris, who analyses frequently the NATO blusters, draws the conclusion: ‘Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad’.
Indeed a great plan, the only bad thing is, it would be the first consciously used weapon whose backfire properties far exceed it’s targeted forward effects.
Andrei Martyanov explains quite directly why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCjNQZuS3ZM
They will be immediatly be bombarded in their full operational and strategic depth without interruption – a type of fighting the ‘Western Allies’ had never to fight, while Russians built their whole strategy on it and tasted it in it’s fullness in the 1941-45 period. The loss numbers on the attacking side in the full depth will be catastrophic within hours/days all just by conventional (non-nuclear) means.
It is also certain that NATO’s C&C is not any better than the US’s one – who’s quality we could fathom some weeks ago…. Yes in such a scenario the NATO (The US who is commanding it) would have to go nuclear very, very fast and then be totally wiped from the planet together with it’s satrapies they will NOT win and Russia would NOT be defeated because it’s landmass is to extensive and practically impervious.
So only a brain dead Zombie could initiate such a scenario – and I’m sure there is still enough brain around in the Pentagram and elsewhere which is atleast capable to reflect on the insanity of such an undertaking.
“NATO New Plan to Counter Russia in Europe whilst Countering China in Asia. Go Nuclear Almost At Once”
What happened to the Old plan?
Maybe the leveling of a SNA base in Syria yesterday by Su-34 was a message to Turkey about the use of TB2 in Ukraine? I am guessing the Turks have some leverage on Ukraine’s use of TB2?
Maybe this is a bit OT but Andrei did raise the issue of sovereignty in the preceding comments thread. I have been wondering why Russia does not simply recognise the LDNR as sovereign states. This would not raise the burden and cost of protection for Russia and would allow it to be legitimately invited to intervene in any future conflicts with Ukraine, much as occurred in Syria. As I understand it, international law recognises that national sovereignty arises from the will of the people, so long as that is expressed overwhelmingly and transparently – no external ‘permission’ is required. So if put to a plebescite, how would the people of LDNR respond to the following question: “You have a choice: remain as part of Ukraine; join the Russian Federation; or become an independent state. What is your vote?” I have no idea what the result of such a plebescite would be.
But Russia does not seem to be interested in supporting such a plebescite (and perhaps neither do the people of the LDNR). The only explanation I can come up with for this is that Russia does not want new states to emerge at this point in time that might set in concrete the current LDNR boundaries. This is because those boundaries are a semi-arbitrary result of the war in the region and do not take into account that, as I understand it, there are many Russian speakers currently living outside those boundaries, in the Donbas and further south in Ukraine. So I suspect that for Russia the higher longer term priority is the safety and security of all Russian speakers in Ukraine, and not just those within the LDNR.
“So I suspect that for Russia the higher longer term priority is the safety and security of all Russian speakers in Ukraine, and not just those within the LDNR.”
I agree with most of this statement but I would add to it:
“So I suspect that for Russia the higher longer term priority is the safety and security of all Russian and Ukrainian speakers in Ukraine, and not just those within the LDNR.”
The Russians know very well that less than 10% of the population of Ukraine support the UkroNazis.
Yes, I hope, and am sure, you are right.
If thats the case why are the Nazis still calling the shots? the 90% could be on the streets.
“If that’s the case why are the Nazis still calling the shots? the 90% could be on the streets.”
All the top politicians in Ukraine are either fully or partly Jewish – Zionists. But it is the same in the USA etc. If they are not the ones who face the public, they are the ones pulling all the strings. Just look at the British Labour Party or the “Socialists” of France.
Many countries are controlled by fewer than 1% of the population. That is the result of easy-to-corrupt representative democracy. Take a look at what is happening in New South Wales, Australia. Millions are pouring into the pockets of politicians who impose draconian rules.
“ So fake or not fake – the Russians should respond as if it was absolutely real.”
Why take the bait? Things are getting so rotten in Zone A, they desperately need a distraction somewhere whether in the South China Sea or in the Ukraine, or pretty much anywhere.
Could any number of drone strikes change situation on the ground militarily? Hardly.
Winter is coming, and that is astronomically more damaging for Kiev than strikes are for LDNR. When cold bites, singing songs can do little to warm hearts of impoverished population. There WILL be riots in Ukraine even before springtime, with or without outside help, and Ze know it. Morale among millitary personnel closely follows that of its people. That is the real reason for this PR stunt and we can expect more of those in close future.
In the background, NS2 is inevitably coming to be fully implemented, which forces US to do something. Anything. Supplying EU with huge amount of cheap gas would help, and that is something they are unable to do. Provoking Russians is practicaly the only thing they can. It didn’t worked before, I do not see why it should work now.
Why does Russia keep babysitting Erdogan when it’s clear that he can’t be trusted and that he always supports Russia’s enemies?
The case of “Baryaktar-LDNR” (in Turkish, baryak – flag, baryaktar –soldier carrying flag on battlefield (and else), similar to signifer in Roman legion) seems to be an unimportant flag waving.
On the video report
one can see a blast near the position of a D-30 howitzer, with two crewmen getting down on the ground right before the blast (obviously they noticed the falling projectile in time) and, with no noticeable injuries, get up and flee the post. The blast is off the target.
I can be pretty sure the D-30 remained operational (maybe a tyre went off, or sighting system damaged).
What could be political and/or military consequences?
I would first wait for the Nord Stream 2 to become fully operational (to overcome the last administrative obstacle in Germany. The Greens just sing their song – the mighty German business is very influential, and could eat them for the Frühstück (a vegetables‘ meal)). Anyway, Ukraine’s throat is choked. One just needs to wait, for population to change their mind, with the help of winter and empty pockets.
Then, let the Ukies show themselves as the source of disrespect of everything, as the main source of instability, persistent attempts to involve NATO into conflict, to provoke Russia for some unacceptable move(s). Kiev desperately needs attention. Let them drown into chowder (борщ), they cooked for themselves.
Crimea has left, let Lughansk and Donetsk to prepare, but not now. Not any definite border between them and the rest of Ukraine, a no flight zone etc. They are Russia’s foot in the door. Why just Lughansk and Donetsk?
As Mr. Larchmonter mentioned, Baryaktars were effectively “landed” in Libya. Something similar, but more hidden, we could expect in Ukraine and Lughansk. But let Mr. Erdogan have some commercials to sell more drones, and, afterwards, Russia broaden market for its EW (older models, still pretty effective).
And finally, this could be considered as another point of pressure along the frontline between the East and the West, to ease another point (Taiwan and around it).
But I am not sure they will provoke a total war, whatever they seem to be crazy. I think they perfectly well know (if they do not know by reason then they know by instinct) how the East is wise and patient, so they can go a little further. Let them waste time and strength in that ongoing match.
“Not any definite border between them [LDNR] and the rest of Ukraine…” I agree. If I were Russian I would have my eye on the greater opportunity, as Ukraine disintegrates into irrelevance, to ‘assist’ in the establishment of a much more extensive and inclusive Russian speaking sovereign state from Kharkiv, down through the Donbas and on south and west to Odessa.
Seems to be a continuation of previous policy thing.. ukrops attacking power transformers.. oil terminal tanks.. gas pipelines..but trying to establish a bridgehead and extend their territory holding before winter sets in ..heavy military be equipment seems to have been released from holding areas to move forward….ukr proving to its masters that the recent encouragement visit by Austin and 69 m dollar delivery of Javelin etc was worthwhile and could be used in conjunction with the new drones in tandem against LNR-DPR tanks and mobile missile units? And surely they must be hoping if not planning anything that would graciously permit instant Nato membership of Nato and some German politician’ viewpoint to “nuke the russians” and a wider held view of being in a new cold war of energy supplies? Clearly Shoigu’s recent speech warning about Nato possibilities is being ignored?
SF has an updated report today.
Turkey consolidating its ambitions. selling drones to Poland …says its F16 will be operating from Poland …and today seems to have launched a more determined effort to to unite two zones in Syria adjacent to its borders….note that HTS the militants that Turkey seems to be preferentially supporting to hold Idlib territory has over the last couple if years and still is an by getting rid of separate militant groups? Note Turkish Parliament has approved military policy for another two years to continue actions in Syria and Iraq….continuing to send extensive military convoys and supplies over its borders.
Yes, I agree, the role of Turkey (and its ally Israel) in all of this may be key.
Ukrainians appear hired actors.
Even if this single issue is all staged and intra-Zone A propaganda, Turkey is very anxious.
Remember Bayraktar is the son-in-law of Erdogan, and Turks (not customers) supposedly control these drones on site.
Many things are coming to a head for Turkey.
Its economy is imploding, the Sultan is on shaky ground even in his own house, and since meeting with Putin there has been a vicious anti-Turk offensive in Syria. The Deraa sector has been submitted to SAA, US eviction is in process at Al Tanf and that sector, and now joint Russo-SAA forces pushing back against Turkey in Idleb.
Syrian kettle is boiling again.
Holding Idleb, or most points within Syria, is a must from perspective of Zionists and ‘Eretz Israel’ (from river Nile to river Euphrates wet-dreams).
Whenever this project is threatened, conniptions arise and fronts are opened elsewhere to weaken and distract Russia/Syria/Iran/Hezbollah.
Please see Meyssan’s latest:
His key point regarding Turkey: “𝘾𝙤𝙣𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙧𝙮 𝙩𝙤 𝙖𝙥𝙥𝙚𝙖𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙨, 𝙍𝙪𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙖 𝙠𝙣𝙤𝙬𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙞𝙩 𝙬𝙞𝙡𝙡 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙨𝙪𝙘𝙘𝙚𝙚𝙙 𝙞𝙣 𝙨𝙚𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙏𝙪𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙮 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙐𝙎.”
I find it hard to reconcile what Meyssan says about Anglo-Saxons accepting any defeat. Indeed reading this I feel overall disoriented, like reading of a parallel universe given current events. Or the issue may be one US/UK faction submitted to Russians, but others do not accept it and continue their fight.
Regardless, with respect to Turkey, it does appear they are on the chopping block soon. It is in same unenviable position of UK/France/Israel in 1956 Suez crisis. And the same Russo-US concert may team up on it shortly, if only to defang a vicious rampaging viper.
I read yesterday that the Ukraine government has told citizens to start gathering up cow chip’s to burn for fuel this winter. Let’s see how the Ukrainians like the smell of burnt cow poop to heat their homes. Mother Russia is going to start to look very good at that point.
“The crucial thing is that the Ukies have now OFFICIALLY declared that they attacked the LDNR in total violation of all the agreements they signed.”
May be the Ukies are declaring readiness to escalate believing (and probably they’re not wrong) that they have the backing of the US and the rest of the West.
Not that this would do them any good – in 2008 georgian shelled the russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia with the US and Turkish blessing. And everyone knows how this ended.
Friend Rejep has assured the Russians that the Bayraqtars will not be used against Russians. The Ukrainians use it for recreational purposes only.
China is importing large amounts of coal from Russia, declining to buy it from Australia ( which previously was their main supplier.) It seems to me this current energy crisis will mean that coal mined in the Donbas will have a guaranteed buyer ar a healthy price. Surely a welcome earner for the break-away republics.
Ukraine is trying to create a rift between Russia and Turkey. This act is probably supported by the US and the UK who want to sabotage the Russia-Turkey alliance.
Erdogan could play fair with Russia by admitting it was not a Baraktar, or he can play dirty by leaving a doubt that may please Biden just before his meeting with Erdogan in Glascow.
Depending on Biden’s attitude toward the sales of the F-16, Erdogan will either confirm or deny the rumor
I am not sure why an aerial attack is worse than artillery shelling which the Ukraine does all the time. Both are despicable acts but this does not look like a major escalation at least not yet.
If Russia has the EW capabilities to control enemy drones, how much rocket science would be needed to fly them back to their launch site. Fully armed on a reverse suicide mission. Or just crash them into Orc front lines.
The attack looks like the typical Ukrop small commercial drone dropping a VIG (or is it VOG) from vertically above the target. That would at best (from the Ukrop viewpoint) kill or more likely wound troops in the immediate vicinity and cause superficial damage to the artillery piece. Overall, it appears to be a staged PR piece.
Bayraktars were dropped like flies in Libya and in Kabarno-Narabakh. It would be awfully unfortunate if an Anglo-Zionist surveillance drone patrolling the borders of LNDR was mistaken for a Bayraktar. Ooooops, sorry, we made a mistake.
Unleash the bayraktar!
This whole Ukrainian farce could be attributed to Puin’s ineptness in dealing with the west. He knew that the west was about to wrest Ukraine from the Russia’s orbit and did very little to counter the move. He should have taken a proactive move to prevent it but instead took a vacation in far away tundra rather than dealing with existenial threat to Russia once Ukraine is under the wetern influence. Now with NATO weapon systems being assembled in Ukraine and short distance distance from Moscow. It is now very plausible that NATO by means of tactical nuclear weapons could attack Russia considering that the distance no longer a insurmountable barrier a surprise attack could render Russia vulnerable.