First, a few news items:
- Forbes just posted an article with the title “U.S. Air Force Bombers Are Rehearsing Their New Main Mission—Sinking Russian Ships“, here is an excerpt (emphasis added): “Four B-1s from the 7th Bomb Wing at Dyess Air Force Base in Texas in early October deployed to the Royal Air Force base at Fairford. In the pre-dawn darkness on Oct. 19, two of the bombers took off for what would be a 12-hour mission (…) The Polish and Romanian air forces—as well as a Canadian air force contingent in Romania—seized the opportunity. All three air arms sent fighters to fly alongside the B-1s. In wartime, the non-stealthy bombers might need escort to protect them from Russian fighters (…) A pair of B-1s could shoot 48 LRASMs at Russia’s Baltic Fleet. Enough, perhaps, to sink the entire fleet in a single pass and eliminate the major threat to U.S. and allied ships in the region“.
- According to LDNR intelligence, the Ukies are now moving major reinforcements towards the line of contact (main battle tanks, artillery and even the famous Javelins, apparently).
- There was a sharp increase in Ukie shelling against the LDNR.
- The Ukrainian forces which heroically seized the undefended village of Staromarievka yesterday seems to have moved back to the western outskirts of the village.
- Germany has appealed to both sides (as usual) to de-escalate and not use drones (which, in theory, only the OSCE “observers” should have the right to use). Then from the rest of Europe – nothing, silence.
- Vladimir Putin instructed the country’s major natural gas company to pump more gas into EU storages, and the gas prices instantly dropped. Gratitude from the EU? More insults towards Putin and Russia.
- Ukie TV has shown some animations on how their Bayraktars could even strike city of Voronezh in Russia. The message to those watching the TV is simple: now that we have Bayraktars, we are invincible.
Okay, let’s discuss the first topic, the Bayraktars. While there is A LOT of nonsensical PR about these super weapons which, in reality, are not that super at all. True, they can, and have, been used very successfully against enemies with poor air defenses, including by Turkey in Syria and by Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh. They are limited in speed, radar cross section, range, weapons range, the need for a datalink and are subject to GPS-spoofing and other EW defense methods. Of course, they can also be shot down by modern air defenses. None of which is surprising since most of their components are off the shelf products, purchased and skillfully put together. But compared to modern US, Russia or Chinese combat drones, they are far behind.
But none of that matters in the Ukrainian context. The Ukies are the folks who believe that marginally modernized Soviet-era cruise missiles can destroy the Crimean Bridge, that a small delivery of Javelin anti-tank missiles can change the balance of forces or that building a “naval base” (that is being VERY generous) on the Ukrainian coast of the Sea of Azov will “show the Russians who is boss”. Keep that in mind when reading the next paragraph.
The US B1-B bombers practicing sinking the entire Black Sea Fleet in one single mission. First, I would note that escorting the B1-B with 4th generation aircraft does not “protect” them, it just make the entire flight much MORE visible on radar. Second, the B1-B have been replaced by the B-2 because the US knew that these bombers could not even hope to penetrate the old, Soviet, airspace. This being said, I really like the B1-Bs, I find them very good general purpose bombers, but only against a much weaker enemy. But does any of that matter?
The point for the Empire is to suggest to the Ukies “we are with you all the way, you can now take on Putin’s drunken Asiatic vodka-drenched hordes and, should things not go as expected, we will back you by, for example, sinking the entire Black Sea Fleet in some single mission“. Lot’s of “body language” and sabre rattling, all of it hugely amplified by the Ukronazi propaganda machine, but exactly *zero* actual commitment to anything. This is exactly what the US did in the 08.08.08 war.
With one big difference: Saakashvili and his goons did not want to lose any territory, they wanted to conquer South Ossetia and Abkhazia and humiliate Russia. In sharp contrast, the Ukronazi regime is totally cornered, Ze has completely lost control of the internal situation and they know that the Eastern Ukraine will never be loyal to the Banderite ideology. So, for them, losing a war to Russia is winning politically.
Right now the country is run by the CIA via the (non-elected and advisory) National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine. Neither the Rada nor even the Presidential apparatus have much to say. As for the Ukie armed forces, they are headed by a bona fide Nazi and psychopath, the one who declared that he wants to “drive down the Red Square in a tank”.
So forget about the actual capabilities of the Bayraktars or the B1-B bombers. They are just stage props in a much more important political process: the Ukraine has no other option left than to try to force Russia into an open intervention.
In my opinion, at this point, Russia should accept the political costs of doing so and declare a no-fly zone over the LDNR. Again, there is no need to move even a single soldier across the border, this can all be done from inside Russia. Here are the advantages of such a move:
- It would show that Russia is willing and able to preempt when no other option is left.
- It would provide protection to the people of the LDNR.
- It would not expose a single Russian soldier to enemy fire.
- Such a no-fly zone could be tactically very flexible (many different weapons systems could be used in many different ways, which is highly desirable since the Ukies would have no way of knowing what the Russians can do and how they would do it).
- This option would minimize (but, of course, not prevent) the western propaganda against Russia (since that “protective cupola” over the LDNR would only become visible in case of a Ukronazi attempt to attack). Depending on the actual system used, it would even provide Russia with a degree of political “plausible deniability” (of course, the US and NATO will detect any Russian actions, but they would not share that publicly since that would reveal too much about their methods and means).
Of course, this begs the question what the Ukies would do about this no-fly zone: take it to the bank, they will challenge it, primarily with its drones, of course (de facto, there is no Ukie air force left). Once the inevitable “Bayraktars rainfall” begins, the Ukies will attack with other weapons systems (artillery, etc.). This will force Russia to de-fang the Ukie military by attacking select Ukronazis bases, ammo dumps, petroleum, oil and lubricant dumps, communication nodes, runways, etc.). Again, Russia can do all that without crossing the Russian border, but that will make very little difference to the AngloZionist propaganda machine. And, of course, this will threaten all Russia-EU relations including the energy supplies to the EU.
But what other option does Russia have? As Lavrov likes to say, it takes two to tango. If the Ukies are dead set on setting off an explosion, Russia cannot prevent that.
Conclusion: at this point in time I do not see how a military escalation, or even a war, between the Banderastan and Russia could be avoided. Simply put, not to start such an escalation is impossible for the current Nazi regime in Kiev: they really have nothing to lose, and a lot to gain, especially time and political control over the Nazi occupied Ukraine.
Some will wonder if Russia could not indicate to the Ukronazis leadership that they will be personally killed if they trigger such a war. The problem here is purely political: striking Kiev is a dramatically different proposition than “just” imposing a no-fly zone over the LDNR. If Russia did what the US has done many times (strike military headquarters, destroy symbolic buildings, etc.) there would inevitably be a lot of innocent casualties and you can count on the AngloZionist propaganda machine to make the most of it.
Some will suggest that Russia could send in a special forces team to selectively kill Ze and a few other select Ukrofreaks. Again, doable, but imagine the political consequences: that would “prove” that Putin is a “bloody KGB murderer” and a danger to all of the “democratic world” (i.e. US vassal states).
This is all Tom Clancy world, not the real world out there. Putin cannot think like Tom Clancy or the ignorant folks who read his nonsense.
So far, the Kremlin is being very quiet, which is politically unsustainable, especially if the Ukies continue their provocations (which they will, why would they not?).
At the end of the day, recognizing the LDNR remains the only viable option.