by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog
BRICS is the acronym of the “alliance” that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
In reality, and with all due respect to Brazil and South Africa, BRICS is about RIC.
With Russia, India and China, in any order, there lies the future of Eurasia; the virtually unchartered quarter that houses over one third of the entire world population; a huge chunk of landmass, rich in resources, not only human resources, and just waiting for the right moment to make its mark in history.
The so-called “Silk Road”, or in reality silk roads, was historically the network of caravan paths that ancient traders took on their journeys from east to west, linking worlds largely unknown to each other, long before Vasco da Gama’s highly documented trips.
And whilst the ancient cultures of India and China flourished in their own right, apart from Alexander’s conquest, the Muslim and subsequent Mongol conquests, there was little historic geopolitical interaction between that far Far East and the Middle East; let alone Europe. The long icy and hard terrain made it very difficult, even for the brave at heart, to take the journey from Beijing to Vienna. The temptations to make that trip did not match the hardship of the journey for the averagely motivated traveler.
But this is all about to change. The new “Silk Road”, the network of super highways that the “RIC” nations are intent to build is going to change this status quo and shorten land distances.
The Trans-Siberian railway is a Russian route and constructing it linked Vladivostok with Moscow, but it was not intended to link China with Europe. If anything, it helped bolster the isolation of the USSR. But the new “Silk Road” project will change the transportation map of the world upside down once and for ever.
The determination to build this massive road network does not need either Brazil or South Africa; again with all due respect to both nations.
By taking many considerations into account, we must be realistic and say that the electoral win of Brazilian candidate Bolsonaro will not affect the prospect of the “Silk Road” one way or the other. The repercussions of his election will affect Brazil more than any other country. Purportedly, his policies will affect global climate, but this is another issue. His fiscal and international policy making decisions may put Brazil under the American sphere of influence, and this unfortunately can and will affect Brazil very adversely, but the damage is likely to be restricted to Brazil only.
With or without Brazil, BRICS can survive, but for it to survive and make a difference, it will need to become more serious about conducting its business.
The first step towards becoming more proactive is best done by establishing proper trust and conciliation between the three major players; Russia, China and India.
The love-hate relationship that marred the Soviet-Maoist era took a while to heal. The Russians and the Chinese seem to have gone many steps ahead towards establishing trust and confidence in each other. But China and India continue to have serious problems, and for as long as they have border and sovereignty disputes, this hinders them from becoming effective partners in every way.
Furthermore, BRICS needs a preamble and a Statement of Purpose. At the moment, it doesn’t have one. With all of its hypocrisies, the Western alliance camouflages itself behind the veil of Christian values, democracy and the “free world” slogans. Thus far, the only undeclared statement of purpose for BRICS seems to be that of defiance to the Western alliance.
The BRICS alliance will face a struggle founding an attractive preamble. Orthodox Christian Russia, predominantly Hindu India and Communist/Taoist/Buddhist China have little in common religiously speaking. Perhaps the BRICS leaders should be using common political grounds instead. They certainly cannot use democracy; not only because such an adoption would make them look as copycats, but also because they have different ideas about democracy, and Russia and China definitely do not endorse Western-style democracy.
In reality however, BRICS can use abstract lofty principles as their preamble; principles such as morality, honesty, and if they want to be less “theological” as it were, they could use principles such as “International law”, “International equality” and the like.
Apart from accumulating gold, building bridges and super road networks, planning fiscal measures to cushion the effects of a possible collapse of the Western economy on their own economies, developing state-of-the-art hypersonic weaponry and giving a clear message announcing that the world is no longer unipolar, the BRICS alliance ought to make clear statements about what kind of alternative world it envisions.
This is very important, because a significant percentage of the world population does not know what to expect if the BRICS alliance becomes the new dominant financial and military power. They have special concerns about China because they don’t know much about China, and they worry not only about whether or not China will be a new colonial super power, but they also worry about one day waking up and seeing traffic signals in Mandarin; so to speak.
To many people across the globe, the Chinese culture, language and modus operandi look like something from another planet.
The Cyrillic Russian and the Devanagari Indian scripts are no less daunting than the Mandarin script, but many Indians and Russians speak English and the West has had much more cultural interaction with both Russia and India than it ever did with China.
Furthermore, for the BRICS alliance to become more viable, it will need to develop a military alliance akin to that of NATO. When and if such an alliance is forged, then members will be protected as any attack on one will be considered as an attack on the whole coalition. Such an alliance will not increase the chances of war. Quite the contrary in fact, as it can lead to much needed stability. If for argument sake North Korea were a member, it would not be in a situation where it can claim that it needs nuclear weapons for self-defense, and secondly, the West would not be threatening to attack for fear of a major global escalation. The Cold-War, costly and potentially disastrous as it was, presents a successful model of nuclear deterrence. And in retrospect, had Vietnam been a member of the Warsaw Pact (or a similar one that included the USSR), it is possible that America’s war on Vietnam would have been averted. A more realistically plausible scenario is the case of former Yugoslavia. Had the Warsaw Pact been still standing, NATO would have never attacked Serbia back in 1999.
To be able to afford a more effective military deterrent, be a viable stand-alone economic power and to be attractive to the rest of the world, the BRICS coalition will ultimately need more member nations. Ideally, it would be of huge significance if Japan could be convinced to join it. The inclusion of Japan will not only add a huge financial power to the group, but it will also generate an in-house regional security to the China Sea region. Baby steps have been recently made between China and Japan towards conciliation, and much more needs to be done. It will take a lot of work and good intentions on both sides to undo a long history of hostilities and distrust.
Other nations that can and arguably should enter the coalition are; Venezuela, Mexico, Argentina, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Korea, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, and post Erdogan Turkey. Why post Erdogan? Because Erdogan’s Turkey can turn BRICS into a bag of TRICS.
Resource-rich Australia has much to gain in joining such an alliance as this will not only bolster its own security, but it will also secure economic stability and on-going trade.
Thus far, all the official visits that the RIC leaders have exchanged, all the business deals they made, all the projects they are embarking on, huge as they are, are only baby steps towards turning their alliance into one that can lead the world and establish the necessary moral, financial and security foundations that are capable of underpinning it.
Over and above establishing a new world reserve currency, setting up an alternative to the US-based Internet and WWW, SWIFT, etc, the brave new world will need hope, trust, morality and concrete assurances for a long-awaited change for the better. These are the real challenges facing the BRICS alliance now; not the Bolsonaro win.
Bolsonaro won not because of Washington versus Moscow, but because brazilians are tired of criminality, corruption, scandals, lgbtq+ rights and all these modern leftist nonsense, Lula and his party was very confortable receiving money from Soros, if Russia, China and India want to keep Brazil in the BRICS you should understand his victory with a deeper analysis
no chance of the silk road going through brazil now.
So the solution for Brazil is to go back to the tried and tested neoliberal plantation economy run by a death squad dictatorship openly working for US/Israeli paymasters…? That will work out well I’m sure.
Wall Street is celebrating Bolsonaro:now,with their fake,Monopoly,money they will go & buy a whole country.bravo, brazilian elites!soon you will be “enjoying” life in a americano-judeo-bankster satrapy.
Do you really think that Brazil’s “elites” ever were/are any different than the ones that rule the entire world, Wall Street including? Bolso simply demonstrates his attachment to the Zio’s loudly, just like Trump.
Bolsonaro won because the Brazilians allowed themselves to be convinced by the extreme right. The Brazilians elected a madman, a misogynist, a racist, a madman who wants to arm the population to fight violence. An ignoramus who thinks that the best teaching system is distance learning. Brazil will plunge into chaos and become dependent on the United States. Unfortunately, Brazil will lose a decade.
Bolsonaro’s sons say it all.
By this argument seems that there is no hope for Brasil. I thougt brasilians had enough corruption with Tamer. Expecting that this will improve with Bolsonero is very naive at least. This man will “improve” the killings and deliver what is left of Brasil natural resources to the US in silver plate.
[The rest of the world worries] not only about whether or not China will be a new colonial super power.
Typical propaganda from the Anglo Zionist Empire. Killing, conquering, and colonizing is what the West has done (and it continues to do), so they expect that China will do the same. That won’t happen. China sees how heavily the global Empire weighs on the Americans, and will not repeat the error. Unlike Americans, the Chinese learn from history and they’ll remember the American experience. In any case, the Chinese do not need military conquest to become influential. There’s no need to steal like Westerners, as doing mutually beneficial deals will be quite enough to keep the country rising.
To many people across the globe, the Chinese culture, language and modus operandi look like something from another planet.
China doesn’t care what the world knows. Beijing will continue doing what it has always done: it’ll go about its business, doing win-win deals all over the globe.
Furthermore, for the BRICS alliance to become more viable, it will need to develop a military alliance akin to that of NATO.
A global military alliance won’t work. That is yet another Anglo-Zionist trap.
The BRICS (or RIC, as the organization might become) is not a military alliance and doesn’t need to be one. SCO exists and is such an organization; India and Pakistan are full members. Incidentally, Brazil is *not* a member; its potential defection to the Anglo Zionist Empire will have little effect on SCO. Perhaps Russia and China have never trusted the Brazilians enough to admit them to the military organization.
The determination to build this massive road network does not need either Brazil or South Africa; again with all due respect to both nations.
That’s right. Thanks to Bolsonaro, BRICS may well become RIC. And having done what the Empire wanted him to do, he will look north for some thanks. However, he will discover that the U.S. is about obedience and not about gratitude. He’ll get none. And then he’ll wish he hadn’t destroyed BRICS, but it’ll be too late. And in the end, Brazil will lose; and Russia, India, and China will just shrug and continue onwards.
When Trump started the trade war with China the Chinese stopped buying US soybeans (livestock feed) and looked to Latin America instead. Now we see the US is regime changing Latin America to take away those markets from China.
I expect the US will attempt to regime change any nation trying to join up with the Road and Belt initiative. Venezuela is on US target list for certain with it’s gold and oil reserves. The US game now is to keep everybody else down under the Military Economic Boot Print.
Also I doubt Bolsonaro cares one wit what happens to Brazil. He is just another lunatic on a personal power trip.
You’re completely right. Ghassan seems to be suggesting that what is needed is a one world government with an Eastern version of the Anglo Zionist empire and NATO.
Yes, trade deals and international law are fine but what seems to have completely escaped Ghassan is that the purpose of the whole effort is to bring modest prosperity to the normal people whilst respecting national sovereignty
The world does not need a new reserve currency and if you have gigantic mergings of countries into blocs this destroys cultural differences and benefits only private transnational corporations leading to the destruction of freedoms, national identity and we end up with the corporate fascism and hideous uniformity we see in the EU and the US.
European counties were once distinctive – now they all look the same and are indistinguishable from each other. Enough is enough.
Ghassan writes thoughtfully but the problem with those on the left is all they think about is globalisation – a fatal mistake. Let God be the only one fit to rule the entire planet however you imagine him to be, and even if you don’t believe in him at all and let us little men and women concentrate on our own garden showing respect for our neighbours whilst leaving them free to choose what they grow in it.
I disagree with big global prescriptions and think we should celebrate Russian culture, Chinese, Iranian, Indian, Korean and Japanese culture. They should be able to run their own internal politics without being part of some hideous global tower of babel. probably run by bankers and megalomaniacs.
Yes, for example China and Russia are doing massive trade and are cooperating militarily but read what Putin and Xi actually say.
Russia will remain Russian and China Chinese. China has no interest in controlling the world and though they want to see the yuan accepted more widely in international trade, they certainly don’t want it to be a world reserve currency. And this is why these two countries don’t merge into a version of NATO. The people don’t want it.
Global this and global that – forget it. Our strengths lie in the rich cultural differences of our many nations. I think you are misunderstanding what multipolarity means.
I find that globalist “strategists” always lose sight of what really matters – meeting the needs of the 7 billion normal people who don’t think in terms of globalist ambitions but simply want a decent life and freedom from war.
People have been so homogenised and suppressed by the Anglo Zionist empire that many find it hard to think of any other way of doing things. Well there is another, better way and I think it is coming and the best bit is we are all part of it.
Tomsk, I second that.
Also, what people seem to overlook is quiet Chinese and Indian invasion of all the countries in the World.
In the last 20 or so years Chinese have flooded every country, notice that their people follow their products, and set up “import-export” businesses, as ordered by the “party”. China is sending it’s people to all the major American Universities for obvious reasons. Chinese invaders are paying attention to how the white people are doing things and try to learn. While we all complain and protest against the invasion by the Middle Eastern Muslims or the Africans (muslim and otherwise), Chinese and Indians quietly lodge themselves in our countries and it won’t take long before they replace (Mel Gibson’s movie Braveheart comes to mind “where Longshank said to the Scots: “We will breed you out”) all the locals. I could go on and on.
There is one more person that comes to my mind. The person is Dimostenis (this is how its pronounced but if you insist Demosthenes (/dɪˈmɒs.θəniːz/; Greek: Δημοσθένης Dēmosthénēs) great Athenian orator, who was warning Athenians about an impending attack by the Phillip II of Macedon (Alex’s father) … and no one listened.
One more thing, at about the same time Phillip II went to Sparta and asked them if they would want him to come to Sparta as a friend or foe, they answered, and I love this “We do not want you to come here period, stay away”.
For, (no offense though) the people who are historically challenged, both Sparta and Athens were totally financially and militarily exhausted after 40+ years of Peloponnesian War between them.
If Brazil is out – Turkey is in the waiting list. So TRICS or just a TRIC ?
Iran is also a candidate , probably Egypt . And so on .
Brazil sadly will be turned into another Columbia–an American-controlled banana colony that is torn apart by narco-trafficking and guerrilla warfare.
Or behind door number 2, Brazil will be turned into an Amazonian version of Mexico–an American-controlled banana colony that is torn apart by narco-trafficking and drug gang violence.
God Bless Amurican “freedom and democracy.”
A ‘eastern NATO’ would simply burden Russia and make global nuclear war much more likely. What is more required is individual actions like Russia’s mission in Syria, which was done with a clear goal to eradicate western-backed Terrorists and it has been very successful in this. If Algeria for example found itself in Syria’s position, no doubt Russia would help them too. There is no need for the American military-empire model to be replicated in the East.
Having the warsaw pact would never have saved Yugoslavia/Serbia in 1999 because Yugoslavia was never in the warsaw pact, indeed from the start it was hostile to the USSR and leaned towards the west under the Tito. They had many contacts with western Europe and became a major tourist destination. Anyway 1990s Serbia was one of the agressors, pushing out ethnic Bosnians from villages they had for centuries etc, unlike Assad’s Syria. Russia or any other ‘Eastern Nato’ country would be under no obligation to help Milosevic (a former banker who learned his skills in the West).
So this author seems an advocate of a One World Government divided into two camps, which will lead to disaster. BRICS itself was a name given to these countries by Westen bankers! What is far better is just for individual countries to develep excellent bilateral relations and trade with Moscow and Beijing. Win Win relations is what China called it.
Foreign proxies were used in Yugoslavia just like they are being used in Syria. Ben Laden was active in Bosnia and received a Bosnian passport for waging “jihad” against the ethnic Bosnian Serbs.
Damascus and Belgrade were bombed by the AZ empire. Serbia was dismembered, but hopefully Syria will not be..
Wikipedia is not a reliable source of info. – It is manipulated by zionists.
Exactly. So you can’t say it”s “Serbian propaganda”, it’s the anglozionists openly admitting they had assets in Bosnia, fighting the local population.
The Bin Laden- Bosnian muslim-Albanian KLA connection is described in detail by Justin Raimondo here:
@ ” anonymous ”
/ yugoslavia under tito / …was in fact nato partner , pretending to be third_world country , to gather around african and asian countries so not to get under soviet union influence , … Even from 1947 usa had plans to tore apart yugoslavia , but waited until tito death , not to disturb his rulling days , as king in yugoslavia , and son of king , of austria_hungary. One should remeber all high ranking statesmen from all around world that came to his funeral… Some president of some small comunist country , and all those statesmen who came to bow their heads . not to some comunist .
After tito death , plans started rolling into action, as earlier set up , by_the_book , and rulers were afraid that now yugoslavia may incline towards soviet union , and that was not to be permitted. And usa and germany under vatican blessing started toring out yugoslavia , first in slovenia , later with croatia , traditional vatican servants. Retired usa military perssonel gathered in croatia and started counselling what had to be done. War had to be initiated and serbs moved away under bombing , from their homes both from croatia and from bosnia and hercegovina.
/ anyway 1990 serbs was one of agrrssors / … But who were other agressors , as serbs were but one ,…and in true fact only serbs were under agression , bombed by nato airplanes in bosna_hercegovina , … Nato was helping talibans in bosna_hercegovina to fight against serbs
/ pushing out ethnic bosnians from villages they had for centuries /
True fact those “ethnic bosnians ” , are in fact 100 % serbs , that converted from christianity to islam , under turkish ottoman empire who rulled that area from 15. Century ,…term ethnic bosnian was coined out under tito rulling , to minimize numbet of serbs by inventing new nation , ethnic bosnians. Those are serbs who accepded muslim religion. And serbs were living in that area for centuries _ not some new invented nation , ethnic bosnian.
/russia or any other country would be under any obligation to help /
In period when serbia was bombed by 19 nato countries , there was no russia , but soviet union , under drunk Yeltsin , his liberals , and his usa advisors who were destroying SU , and SU in fact had no military power to influence and prevent nato bombing of serbia.
/ to help milosevic ( a former banker who learned his skills in the west ) /
Milosevic was really good banker , but unfortunately he was appointed position in USA , and there he lost his skills , and fell under influence of cia or some other agency. When after years spent in USA , he returned to serbia , he started his path as politician , and that destroyed him. Interesting is that he was closelly surounded by many advisers , who were cia puppets , and always advised him to play cia game .
“A more realistically plausible scenario is the case of former Yugoslavia. Had the Warsaw Pact been still standing, NATO would have never attacked Serbia back in 1999.”
Actually, Yugoslavia was never a member of the Warsaw Pact. In 1948, the communist party of Yugoslavia refused to be a part of the Warsaw pact, and instead in 1955 was one the founders of the non-aligned members organisation.
Up until the mid 80-s, the main concern of the Yugoslav army was defense from a possible Warsaw Pact invasion.
Yugoslavia was considered by NATO as a “buffer”, nation that was protecting their south flank, and therefore had a special favorable status.
Yes, largely agree, the BRICS are not what they intended to be, never really were.
But today’s it’s clear that Brazil is out – so we are at RICS. whether you consider South Africa as a valid member of the BRICS is also questionable because, much of the social injustice has actually become worse since the end of apartheid. Ending apartheid was a mere legal exercise.
Destruction of power and money have not really changed. to the contrary – it worsened. 80% of land is still in the hands of white farmers. This is what President Cyril Ramaphosa wants to change drastically, by confiscating white farmers land without compensation and distribute it to black farmers, who have no formation of how to run these farms. This is not only utterly unjust and will create internal conflicts, the last thing SA needs, but it is also very inefficient, as farming / agriculture production will decline most likely drastically and SA, a potential exporter of farm good, will become a t net importer, a hit against her economy.
On a recent trip to SA, I spoke to several black people, including especially women from townships, i.e. SOWETO, who said they were better off under apartheid.
It is not a scientific statistic, but the fact that some black people dare say that the system that atrociously discriminated them was better than today’s system, is significant.
So, now we are, as the author of the article describes, down to RIC.
Here I would go a step further – does India deserve to belong to a club that has as a goal equality and solidarity?
The cast system, about which very little is written, is a horrible, horrible mechanism of disclination. And there no efforts under way to do away with it. The Indian elite like it – it proves cheap labor, actually legalized slavehood, to their upper class living. That alone is unworthy of the principles of the BRICS.
The other point, which I believe is important in considering India’s “BRICS viability”, is the fact that PM Narendra Modi is constantly wavering between pleasing the US and leaning toward the east, Russia and China. This is certainly not an indication for a country to become a member in good standing and solidarity with a group of eastern countries, that intend to follow some rather noble human and social justice standards, like Russia and China.
The BRICS also have a so-called development bank, the “New Development Bank” (NDB) which so far has been and remains largely non-functional, mostly because of internal conflicts. So, if you drop also India – we are back to China and Russia, the founders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
Under close scrutiny, the BRICS don’s stand the test they subscribed to in their first summit in 2009, and under which they were legalized and officiated in 2010.
I am amazed at the certainty with which people predict the results of the unknown army man Bolsonaro to be catastrophic.
They could be,but then anything can be.
It reminds me of a predictions made about the ascension to authority of another unknown military man.
Come on now. We will have to wait and see.
I am very interested to hear the opinions of Putin and Xi Jinping as regards Brazil now.
Bolsonaro is a torture fetishist and a Zionist. How is that going to end well for Brazil?
China monthly steel production is equivalent today a entire year of USA production.
45% of the resources comes from Brazil. 450 million tons.
Brazil also sells US30bi of food every year to China.
Who can replace Brazil for Them?
Size is a quality by itself. And Brazil out of Brics is not an option to China!
Meu consolo é que a grande águia, o deep state norte-americano, se acalme com o Brasil e América Latina servindo de boi-de-piranha (nossas elites, como bons abutres, ficarão contestes com a carniça enjeitada). Tomara Deus que o sacrifício deste lindo povo retarde a loucura da 3a guerra o suficiente, até o ponto de os anglo-siofascis aceitarem (dói menos) e finalmente se engajarem na multipolaridade ganha-ganha.
Yes, I agree. As a Brazilian, of course I saw the victory of Bolsonothing as a disaster for Brazil (now, definetely witten with a z… Note: in Brazilian portuguese, Brazil is written with s: Brasil). However, as Brazil was never too important in the group, its ‘loss’ will not bring significant changes to the BRICS, while the importance of being part of the group, on the other hand, was important for Brazil…
Let’s face it: for Brazil, BRICS was a good idea, an intention that could have worked, had it not been for the greed opposition inside and outside the country. BRICS does have a strong ideological meaning, and I believe that the new Brazilian government will soon try to distance itself from the group. However, the appalling social mess in India and South Africa also say many things about these nations – no nation can consider itself great when their people live as animals -; It seems that being part of the (B)RICS benefits only their elite, as a good propaganda for legitimacy…