[This analysis was written for the Unz Review]
This war is officially a war between Azerbaijan and the (unrecognized) Republic of Nagorno Karabakh (RNK) aka “Republic of Artsakh” (ROA) which I shall refer to simply as Nagorno Karabakh or “NK”. As is often the case, the reality is much more complicated. For one thing, Erdogan’s Turkey has been deeply involved since Day 1 (and, really, even much before that) while Armenia has been backing NK to the hilt since the breakup of the Soviet Union. It is even worse: Turkey is a member of NATO while Armenia is a member of the CSTO. Thus a war started over a relatively small and remote area could, in theory, trigger an international nuclear war. The good news here is that nobody in NATO or the CSTO wants such a war, especially since technically speaking the NK is not part of Armenia (Armenia has not even recognized this republic so far!) and, therefore, not under the protection of the CSTO. And since there have been no attacks on Turkey proper, at least so far, NATO also has no reason to get involved.
I should mention here that in terms of international law, NK is an integral part of Azerbaijan. Still, almost everybody agrees that there is a difference between NK proper and the kind of security zone the army of NK created around NK (see map)
(note: the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic is part of Azerbaijan)
The reality on the ground, however, is very different, so let’s look at the position of each actor in turn, beginning with the party which started the war: Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan has been reforming and rearming its military since the Azeri forces got comprehensively defeated in the 1988-1994 war. Furthermore, for President Aliev this war represents what might well be the best and last chance to defeat the NK and Armenian forces. Most observers agree that should Aliev fail to achieve at least an appearance of victory he will lose power.
Armenia would have been quite happy to keep the status quo and continue to form one country with the NK de facto while remaining two countries de jure. Still, living in the tough and even dangerous “neighborhood” of the Caucasus, the Armenians never forgot that they are surrounded by more or less hostile countries just like they also remained acutely aware of Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman ideology which, sooner or later, would make war inevitable.
Iran, which is often forgotten, is not directly involved in the conflict, at least so far, but has been generally sympathetic to Armenia, primarily because Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman ideology represents a danger for the entire region, including Iran.
Turkey has played a crucial behind the scenes role in the rearmament and reorganization of Azeri forces. Just as was the case in Libya, Turkish attack drones have been used with formidable effectiveness against NK forces, in spite of the fact that the Armenians have some very decent air defenses. As for Erdogan himself, this war is his latest attempt to paint himself as some kind of neo-Ottoman sultan which will reunite all the Turkic people under his rule.
One of the major misconceptions about this conflict is the assumption that Russia has always been, and will always be, on the side of Armenia and the NK, but while this was definitely true for pre-1917 Russia, this is not the case today at all. Why?
Let’s examine the Russian position in this conflict.
First, let’s get the obvious out of the way: Armenia (proper, as opposed to NK) is a member of the CSTO and should anybody (including Azerbaijan and/or Turkey) attack Armenia, Russia would most definitely intervene and stop the attack, either by political or even by military means. Considering what Turkey has done to the Armenian people during the infamous Armenian Genocide of 1914-1923 this makes perfectly good sense: at least now the Armenian people know that Russia will never allow another genocide to take place. And the Turks know that too.
And yet, things are not quite that simple either.
For example, Russia did sell a lot of advanced weapon systems to Azerbaijan (see here for one good example). In fact, relations between Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev are famously very warm. And while it is true that Azerbaijan left the CSTO in 1999, Russia and Azerbaijan have retained a very good relationship which some even characterize as a partnership or even an alliance.
Furthermore, Azerbaijan has been a much better partner to Russia than Armenia, especially since the Soros-financed “color revolution” of 2018 which put Nikol Pashinian in power. Ever since Pashinian got to power, Armenia has been following the same kind of “multi-vector” policy which saw Belarus’ Lukashenko try to ditch Russia and integrate into the EU/NATO/US area of dominance. The two biggest differences between Belarus and Armenia are a) Belarusians and Russians are the same people and b) Russia cannot afford to lose Belarus whereas Russia has really zero need for Armenia.
On the negative side, not only has Azerbaijan left the CSTO in 1999, but Azerbaijan has also joined the openly anti-Russian GUAM Organization (which is headquartered in Kiev).
Next, there is the Turkey-Erdogan factor as seen from Russia. Simply put, the Russians will never trust any Turk who shares Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman worldview and ideology. Russia has already fought twelve full-scale wars against the Ottomans and she has no desire to let the Turks trigger another one (which they almost did when they shot down a Russian Su-24M over northern Syria). Of course, Russia is much more powerful than Turkey, at least in military terms, but in political terms an open war against Turkey could be disastrous for Russian foreign and internal policy objectives. And, of course, the best way for Russia to avoid such a war in the future is to make absolutely sure that the Turks realize that should they attack they will be suffering a crushing defeat in a very short time. So far, this has worked pretty well, especially after Russia saved Erdogan from the US-backed coup against him.
Some observers have suggested that Russia and Armenia being Christian, the former has some kind of moral obligation towards the latter. I categorically disagree. My main reason to disagree here is that Russians now are acutely aware of the disgusting lack of gratitude of our (supposed) “brothers” and (supposed) “fellow Christians” have shown as soon as Russia was in need.
[Sidebar: most Armenians are not Orthodox Christians, but members of the Armenian Apostolic Church, which are miaphysites/monophysites. They are also not Slavs]
The ONLY slavic or Orthodox people who did show real gratitude for Russia have been the Serbs. All the rest of them have immediately rushed to prostitute themselves before Uncle Shmuel and have competed with each other for the “honor” of deploying US weapons systems targeted at Russia. The truth is that like every superpower, Russia is too big and too powerful to have real “friends” (Serbia being a quite beautiful exception to this rule). The Russian Czar Alexander III famously said that “Russia only has two true allies: her army and her navy”. Well, today the list is longer (now we could add the Aerospace forces, the FSB, etc.), but in terms of external allies or friends, the Serbian people (as opposed to some of the Serbian leaders) are the only ones out there which are true friends of Russia (and that, in spite of the fact that under Elstin and his “democratic oligarchs” Russia shamefully betrayed a long list of countries and political leaders, including Serbia).
Then there is the religious factor which, while crucial in the past, really plays no role whatsoever in this conflict. Oh sure, political leaders on both sides like to portray themselves as religious, but this is just PR. The reality is that both the Azeris and the Armenians place ethnic considerations far above any religious ones, if only because, courtesy of the militant atheism of the former USSR, many, if not most, people in Armenia, Azerbaijan and even Russia nowadays are agnostic secularists with no more than a passing interest for the “spiritual values which shaped their national identity” (or something along these lines).
One major concern for Russia is the movement of Turkish-run Takfiris from Syria to Azerbaijan. The Russians have already confirmed that this has taken place (the French also reported this) and, if true, that would give Russia the right to strike these Takfiris on Azeri soil. So far, this threat is minor, but if it becomes real, we can expect Russian cruise missiles to enter the scene.
Finally, there are major Azeri and Armenian communities in Russia, which means two things: first, Russia cannot allow this conflict to sneak across the borders and infect Russia and, second, there are millions of Russians who will have ties, often strong ones, to both of these countries.
Though they are not currently officially involved, we still need to look, at least superficially, at the Empire’s view of this conflict. To summarize it I would say that the Empire is absolutely delighted with this crisis which is the third one blowing up on Russia’s doorstep (the other two being the Ukraine and Belarus). There is really very little the Empire can do against Russia: the economic blockade and sanctions totally failed, and in purely military terms Russia is far more powerful than the Empire. Simply put: the Empire simply does not have what it takes to take on Russia directly, but setting off conflicts around the Russia periphery is really easy.
For one thing, the internal administrative borders of the USSR bear absolutely no resemblance to the places of residence of the various ethnicities of the former Soviet Union. Looking at them one would be excused for thinking that they were drawn precisely to generate the maximal amount of tension between the many ethnic groups that were cut into separate pieces. There is also no logic in accepting the right of the former Soviet Republics to secede from the Soviet Union, but then denying the same right to those local administrative entities which now would want to separate from a newly created republic which they don’t want to be part of.
Second, many, if not most, of the so-called “countries” and “nations” which suddenly appeared following the collapse of the Soviet Union have no historical reality whatsoever. As a direct result, these newborn “nations” had no historical basis to root themselves in, and no idea what independence really means. Some nations, like the Armenians, have deep roots as far back as antiquity, but their current borders are truly based on nothing at all. Whatever may be the case, it has been extremely easy for Uncle Shmuel to move into these newly independent states, especially since many (or even most) of these states saw Russia as the enemy (courtesy of the predominant ideology of the Empire which was imposed upon the mostly clueless people of the ex-Soviet periphery). The result? Violence, or even war, all around that periphery (which the Russians think of as their “near abroad”).
I think that most Russian people are aware that while there has been a major price to pay for this, the cutting away of the ex-Soviet periphery from Russia has been a blessing in disguise. This is confirmed by innumerable polls which show that the Russian people are generally very suspicious of any plans involving the use of the Russian Armed Forces outside Russia (for example, it took all of Putin’s “street cred” to convince the Russian people that the Russian military intervention in Syria was a good idea).
There is also one more thing which we must always remember: for all the stupid US and western propaganda about Russia and, later, the USSR being the “prison of the people” (small nations survived way better in this “prison” than they did under the “democratic” rule of European colonists worldwide!), the truth is that because of the rabidly russophobic views of Soviet Communists (at least until Stalin – he reversed this trend) the Soviet “peripheral” Republics all lived much better than the “leftover Russia” which the Soviets called the RSFSR. In fact, the Soviet period was a blessing in many ways for all the non-Russian republics of the Soviet Union and only now, under Putin, has this trend finally been reversed. Today Russia is much richer than the countries around her periphery and she has no desire to squander that wealth on a hostile and always ungrateful periphery. The bottom line is this: Russia owes countries such as Armenia or Azerbaijan absolutely nothing and they have no right whatsoever to expect Russia to come to their aid: this won’t happen, at least not unless Russia achieves a measurable positive result from this intervention.
Still, let’s now look at the reasons why Russia might want to intervene.
First, this is, yet again, a case of Erdogan’s megalomania and malevolence resulting in a very dangerous situation for Russia. After all, all the Azeris need to do to secure an overt Turkish intervention is to either attack Armenia proper, which might force a Russian intervention or, alternatively, be so severely beaten by the Armenians that Turkey might have to intervene to avoid a historical loss of face for both Aliev and Erdogan.
Second, it is crucial for Russia to prove that the CSTO matters and is effective in protecting CSTO member states. In other words, if Russia lets Turkey attack Armenia directly the CSTO would lose all credibility, something which Russia cannot allow.
Third, it is crucial for Russia to prove to both Azerbaijan and Armenia that the USA is long on hot air and empty promises, but can’t get anything done in the Caucasus. In other words, the solution to this war has to be a Russian one, not a US/NATO/EU one. Once it becomes clear in the Caucasus that, like in the Middle-East, Russia has now become the next “kingmaker” then the entire region will finally return to peace and a slow return to prosperity.
So far the Russians have been extremely careful in their statements. They mostly said that Russian peacekeepers could only be deployed after all the parties to this conflict agree to their deployment. Right now, we are still very far away from this.
Here is what happened so far: the Azeris clearly hoped for a short and triumphant war, but in spite of very real advances in training, equipment, etc the Azeri Blitzkrieg has clearly failed in spite of the fact that the Azeri military is more powerful than the NK+Armenian one. True, the Azeris did have some initial successes, but they all happened in small towns mostly located in the plain. But take a look at this topographic map of the area of operations and see for yourself what the biggest problem for the Azeris is:
Almost all of NK is located in the mountains (hence the prefix “nagorno” which means “mountainous”) and offensive military operations in the mountains are truly a nightmare, even for very well prepared and equipped forces (especially in the winter season, which is fast approaching). There are very few countries out there who could successfully conduct offensive operations in mountains, Russia is one of them, and Azerbaijan clearly is not.
Right now both sides agree on one thing only: only total victory can stop this war. While politically that kind of language makes sense, everybody knows that this war will not end up in some kind of total victory for one side and total defeat of the other side. The simple fact is that the Azeris can’t overrun all of NK while the Armenians (in Armenia proper and in the NK) cannot counter-attack and defeat the Azeri military in the plains.
Right now, and for as long as the Azeris and the Armenians agree that they won’t stop at anything short of a total victory, Russia simply cannot intervene. While she has the military power to force both sides to a total standstill, she has no legal right to do so and please remember that, unlike the USA, Russia does respect international law (if only because she has no plans to become the “next USA” or some kind of world hegemon in charge of maintaining the peace worldwide). So there are only two possible options for a Russian military intervention:
- A direct (and confirmed by hard evidence) attack on the territory of Armenia
- Both the Azeris and the Armenians agree that Russia ought to intervene.
I strongly believe that Erdogan and Aliev will do whatever it takes to prevent option one from happening (while they will do everything in their power short of an overt attack on Armenia to prevail). Accidents, however, do happen, so the risk of a quick and dramatic escalation of the conflict will remain until both sides agree to stop.
Right now, neither side has a clear victory and, as sad as I am to write these words, both sides have enough reserves (not only military, but also political and economic) to keep at it for a while longer. However, neither side has what it would take to wage a long and bloody positional war of attrition, especially in the mountain ranges. Thus both sides probably already realize that this one will have to stop, sooner rather than later (according to some Russian experts, we are only talking weeks here).
Furthermore, there are a lot of very dangerous escalations taking place, including artillery and missile strikes on cities and infrastructure objects. If the Armenians are really pushed against a wall, they could both recognize NK and hit the Azeri energy and oil/gas infrastructure with their formidable Iskander tactical ballistic missiles. Should that happen, then we can be almost certain that both the Azeris and the Turks will try to attack Armenia, with dramatic and most dangerous consequences.
This conflict can get much, much more bloody and much more dangerous. It is thus in the interests of the entire region (but not the USA) to stop it. Will the Armenian lobby be powerful enough to pressure the USA into a more helpful stance? So far, the US is, at least officially, calling all sides for a ceasefire (along with France and Russia), but we all know how much Uncle Shmuel’s word can be trusted. At least there is no public evidence that the USA is pushing for war behind the scenes (the absence of such evidence does, of course, not imply the evidence of the absence of such actions!).
At the time of writing this (Oct. 9th) Russia has to wait for the parties to come back to reality and accept a negotiated solution. If and when that happens, there are options out there, including making NK a special region of Azerbaijan which would be placed under the direct protection of Russia and/or the CSTO with Russian forces deployed inside the NK region. It would even be possible to have a Turkish military presence all around the NK (and even some monitors inside!) to reassure the Azeris that Armenian forces have left the region and are staying out. The Azeris already know that they cannot defeat Armenia proper without risking a Russian response and they are probably going to realize that they cannot overrun NK. As for the Armenians, it is all nice and fun to play the “multi-vector” card, but Russia won’t play by these rules anymore. Her message here is simple: if you are Uncle Shmuel’s bitch, then let Uncle Shmuel save you; if you want us to help, then give us a really good reason why: we are listening.”
This seems to me an eminently reasonable position to take and I hope and believe that Russia will stick to it.
PS: the latest news is that Putin invited the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia to Moscow for “consultations” (not “negotiations”, at least not yet) with Sergei Lavrov as a mediator. Good. Maybe this can save lives since a bad peace will always be better than a good war.
PPS: the latest news (Oct 9th 0110 UTC) is that the Russians have forced Armenia and Azerbaijan to negotiate for over thirteen hours, but at the end of the day, both sides agreed to an immediate ceasefire and for substantive negotiations to begin. Frankly, considering the extreme hostility of the parties towards each other, I consider this outcome almost miraculous. Lavrov truly earned his keep today! Still, we now have to see if Russia can convince both sides to actually abide by this agreement. Here is a machine translation of the first Russian report about this outcome:
Statement by the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia
In response to the appeal of the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin and in accordance with the agreements of the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan I.G. Aliyev and Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia N.V. Pashinyan, the parties agreed on the following steps :
1. A ceasefire is declared from 12:00 pm on October 10, 2020 for humanitarian purposes for the exchange of prisoners of war and other detained persons and bodies of the dead, mediated and in accordance with the criteria of the International Committee of the Red Cross.
2. The specific parameters of the ceasefire regime will be agreed upon additionally.
3. The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, with the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, on the basis of the basic principles of the settlement, begin substantive negotiations with the aim of reaching a peaceful settlement as soon as possible.
4. The parties confirm the invariability of the format of the negotiation process.
Another evidence of Russia’s superb diplomatic skills!
Let me be one of the first to comment here. Your take on the situation in that region is, once again spot on, and very much echoes what I have put in my latest piece regarding these former Soviet Republics. All of them have been enthusiastically trying to endear themselves to, as you call it, Uncle Shmuel, not realising that they are nothing more to that Uncle Shmuel than a prostituting little nothings that are simply being used. Their pathetic stupid egos do not allow them to realise that. Now, when they are in trouble, thay are looking to Russia to save their sad as..s. Russia’s response to that is absolutely obvious: CHOOSE who you want to be with, cannot have it both ways. Lukashenko has already learn that lesson hard way.. The rest are learning it, but slowly..
-agree on prostitutes being used by pompass and his goons;
-obviously, average citizen or citizenry do not benefit;
–however, the corrupt politicians/oligarchs (actually, no distinction) see huge opportunities for loot and enrichment for their “services” in prostitution;
-hence, the attraction of soros et al, NED with checkbook, NATO, and
shmuel in general;
Russia will not participate in this payoff game but must devise a strategy to blunt this attraction.
You write ” Russia shamefully betrayed a long list of countries and political leaders, including Serbia”
As usual, you’re right. And I think it’s a reason why countries that should be allied with Russia stay at the edge of only shy friendship. Putine is not immortal. NATO’s planners know that and wait in maintaining a permanent pression on Russia.
I think Chinese, iranians or others to.
When, with shamefull tears in my eyes, I saw my french Army shelling Serbia, it was so obvious that the main reason of this vilain war was to , for decades and more, descredit Russia as a reliable ally.
How Chinese, Iranians and other can they trust Russia for AFTER Putine.
These are so much Elstine in stock.
Perharps US planners play the same game with Armenia.
The US has a worse track record when it comes to their allies than Russia. Even uber-vampire itself Kissinger famously declared that to be an American ally is worse than to be its enemy.
Germany on the other hand looks after its Nazi friends be it Croatia ustashi, 13th Waffen Mountain Division of the SS “Handschar” of Bosnian Muslims, organ-trading people-smuggling heroin dealers of “Kosovo” or Ukro-Nazis, It seems Germany’s love is longer lasting. Germany helped dispose of Yugoslavia creating all those Nazi loving statelets instead.
I’m French and USA let us die alone in 1940… It always seem that everybody forgot that in France.
But first, the subject here is not USA but Russia.
Second, USA don’t have none ally, only vassals, protectorates and dominions. Third, USA have hard, soft and money powers enough to force their serve nations and make believe them it’s good for them
Forth, USA as Roman Empire, offers a kind of citizenship to “élites” of these nations. Biznessmen, politiciens, columnists, academics. Each of them have a true interest in submit their own country.
USA don’t rely on gratitude or goodwilling.
I don’t know how Russians leader are dealing with the idea that USA will never stop his war and harrassment against Russia. Never. Till Russia is submit like a dog( people, not elites) or be destroyer.
Carthago delenda est.
Playing the game in ultra-easy mode creates lazy and incompetent players.
My thesis: By winning a trivial war they promoted an entire generation of marginaly competent individuals wihtin their own ranks creating a system that lack competence for serious challanges.
The war won against Serbs in Croatia, Bosnia and later bombing of Serbia is the greatest loss in modern US history. It’s irony at its best. After the cold war the US was in a new player mode, something like switching from “Ultra tough” to “Ultra Easy”. During the wars in the Balkans, directed towards the Serbs and Christianity in general, a new wave of admins, generals and polititans rose to power and position ex. General Wesly Clark. All they ever knew was to use brute force and have infinite resources.In the meantime, while basking in the glory of defeating a 7 milion people country after 10 years of harsh sanctions (and a few other wars), the bear and the dragon both woke up and started to regain strength. This same crew, of marginaly competent individuals, now needs to play a different game with longterm goals that go beyond just bringing governments down with colour revolutions. A game that requires inteligence, strength, cohesion and above all endurance/continuity.
“Arrogance and ignorance, all in one package! How efficient!” quote from series Babylon 5
requested correct made to your comment … mod
I must correct you, as you took things out of context. The Saker stated that ” … under Elstin (Yeltsin) and his democratic oligarchs Russia shamefully betrayed a long list of countries and political leaders, including Serbia”. This means that it was not Russia as such, but rather Yeltsin and his liberal oligarchs who did the betraying, either willing or unwilling.
When Yeltsin came to power, he rushed with liberal “reforms” which nearly destroyed Russia, as he created a situation which today we have in Ukraine, a country run by modern robber barons called oligarchs. It was only Putin who reversed things. In fact it is absolutely amazing what Putin did in such a short period of time, bringing Russia back to the world stage as a super power and even overtaking the US in certain military high tech.
As for Serbia, yes, we were very disappointed that Russia could not stop the 1999 NATO bombing, when NATO attacked without declaration of war. However, Russia then was in no position to intervene, as liberal Boris Yeltsin drastically weakened the country. I would like to point out that historically Russia always backed the Serbs. In 1915 the Russian Tsar threatened to sign a separate peace treaty with Germany if Britain and France did not open a new front at Salonica, which they did. Recently Putin sent both the Pantsir and S-400 missile systems to Serbia for an exhibition. The Serbs bought the Pantsir missile system. The S-400 was withdrawn to Russia, with Putin stating that it could be brought to Serbia in a matter of hours should the country be attacked. No doubt NATO heard this warning.
There is no moral basis for Russia to blame anyone for the attempted prostitution with the West for Russia was the one to show the way to others.
You cannot apply a simplistic approach to history. How many times has Russia been invaded and for what purpose ? Who planned and financed that “revolution” in 1917 ? Who butchered the Tsar and his family ? Why is NATO still in existence ? Why is NATO encircling both Russia and China ? What did Madeleine Albright say some years back ? Answer: That she sees no reason why Russia should be so large and possess all those natural resources, which do not belong to her but to the whole world ! What we have here is some very practical gangsterism on behalf of a member of the US elite. I think you have the truth now.
If the Serbs were and still are the only nation very warm and friendly to Russia, one would wonder why is it so after the way Russia treated the Serbs in the post-Soviet era. I think that Russia unmistakably showed certain propensities, and no Serb, regardless his pro-Russian feelings, fully trusts Russia any more. Here is the link that will shed little more light on the matter (Google translation will do a decent job): https://www.vreme.com/cms/view.php?id=1731562
The Russia of Boris Yeltsin does not exist any more. We now have Putin’s Russia, and Putin, who has a Phd in economics, is no fan of liberal economics, nor does he have any illusions as far as NATO and the EU go.
You are right, he is not any more because he and Russia had been trashed by the West just like the Serbs were trashed by both Russia and the West in the same time. Besides, if you carefully read the link you will notice that the timeline extends deeply into Putin’s years. And, believe me, I know the pain of the Serbs: they wish they woke up one morning and realized that it was all just a bad dream. But it was not and we will have to live with it forever.
Could you have picked a more pro-Soros source than that? I doubt it!
As many have commented, Lavrov is probably the No.1 diplomat in the world. On top of that you must bear in mind that Russia has history and tradition behind it and that it understands the situation in that part of the world perfectly. It knows what it has to do.
Russia has forced a ceasefire, starting tomorrow. The only good thing about this war is an opportunity to hurt Turkey.
Turkey has moved 3600 Syrian Islamic terrorists to fight against Armenia. Russia should force Erdogan to remove all of them, or lose all of them. There is no way Turkey can stop the Russians from destroy all these proxies.
Erdogan needs to be handed a huge loss of face, especially in this region.
Time for Russia to show Turkey, NATO, the US and its “friends” like Armenia that Russia is the regional power not Turkey or Iran or anyone else.
Spot on as usual.
“The only good thing about this war is an opportunity to hurt Turkey.
Turkey has moved 3600 Syrian Islamic terrorists to fight against Armenia.”
Actually the second good thing is that Armenians are killing off some of these Syrian mercenaries/rebels/terrorists who have festered in Syria for 9 1/2 years. Syria is lax at assertively attacking them and mostly keeps its army (SAA) and other forces in defensive positions, while the the rebels regularly shell or attack cities/infrastructure and eventually regroup to attack the Syrian army positions.
Turkey moving the rebels to Libya and Azerbaijan/Armenia would be an opportunity for Syria to go after numerically-lessened rebels/terrorists. But looking at Syria’s track record, I doubt they will take advantage of it.
Tactically, the vast numbers of terrorists neutralized for eternity are done so via air strikes by Russian Aerospace and some Syrian air power and long range artillery from Syrian forces.
When forced by terrain or objectives, the Syrians have taken heavy casualties to defeat the terrorists. The ISIS, AQ and other terrorists have US and Turk assistance which makes the battle complex.
This is no ordinary war. The Syrians have suffered many hundreds of thousands of casualties to troops and civilians. In the military it is not uncommon for many families to have lost multiple sons and many times fathers and sons.
The war seems easy from our desktops. It is one of the most vicious wars in modern times.
Don’t forget, one of the great field marshals fighting on the front lines was assassinated, Soleimani. That loss is felt by all on Assad’s side of the war, not just Quds Force, militias, and Hezbollah.
Erdogan needs to get down to earth, if possible. He is poking his nose in every conceivable direction, applying the imperial Ottoman mentality. He is making enemies left, right and center. Not wise.
Au contraire, Sultan Erdogan is picking his fights very carefully.
From my own article:
Well, not quite. Erdogan has been doing his best to join the EU, and thus have an open hand when it comes to exporting Muslim radicals to Europe. The EU turned him down. He is doing his best to support the Muslims in the Balkans. Some years back he told the Turkish community in Belgium to increase the size of their families and to start participating in the political life of the country. He is more of an opportunist than he is shrewd. His Ottoman ambitions may well be the ruin of him.
Epina39 from France
I agree with your positions. I know some (very few) people from the ex-Soviet Armenia and Bulgaria, and they all say that they were much better off before the destruction of the Soviet Union.
Regarding Armenia : sadly, under the pressure, money and influence of the Armenian diaspora of the Western world, Armenia has turned away from Russia. And the Western Armenians (Ottoman Armenians) have placed on the shoulders of the Eastern Armenians (ex-Soviet Armenians) all the weight of their sufferings under the Ottomans (Turks), while Eastern Armenians never had to suffer from the Turks. Thus, they transformed the Eastern Armenians, who lived in peace, into a “we suffered, we do not forget”, revenge-seeking people.
Edouard, correction my friend. You are forgetting the genocide that Eastern Armenians suffered from the hands of Turks in 1914-1923. 1.5mln of them suffered from Turkish savagery and barbarity and and as a result perished. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_Genocide.
By Eastern Armenians, I think he means those that were in the Russian Empire’s territory.That is now the Republic of Armenia. Some of the population there are descendants of Ottoman Empire Armenians that fled there during the genocide. But most of them are descended from the people living there when it was part of the Russian Empire.
That is exactly what I meant.
My appologies, you are correct. Without much thinking I copied his words, while I meant Western Armenians, who live(d) in the territory occupied by Turkey.
O.K., very well, I am glad the misunderstanding is erased.
A very good analysis. Thank you. But the real problem is that this occupation of Azeri territory and the ethnic cleansing of up to a million Azeris from it is a festering wound that will continue to erupt unless the status quo is altered significantly.
Whether or not the Armenians will allow the right of return to the Azeris cleansed from their homes outside of NK, if not inside, will determine whether continual attempts are made by the Azeris to regain their people’s territory in the future.
Former two time prime minister of Turkey, leftist and poet, Bulent Ecevit, suggested a possible solution many years ago. His suggestion was that a corridor connect Armenia to NK and another corridor with some compensatory territory along the Iranian border connect Azerbaijan proper to Nahkchivan. Possibly a population exchange could occur.
The status quo will only continue to to fester. Serious solutions need consideration to heal the wound.
Not sure Azerbaijan can claim the moral high ground here:
When NK voted on reunification with Armenia, there was the Baku pogrom in 1990 targeting Armenian civilians (raging violence in Azerbaijan’s capital which lasted for a week and required the intervention of the Soviet army).
Two years before that (1988) there were pogroms against Armenians in Kirovagrad (today’s Ganja) and Sumagait.
Both sides, it appears, were pretty ruthless regarding civilians of the other side.
This is why Russia should have prevented the war from starting in the first place:
1. The Ottomans are still a part of NATO. They are still the second largest and by far the best, no comparison at all, in fact the only competent military force in NATO. They are also the most strategically located single country in NATO, sitting as they do across the chokepoint of the Black Sea and overlooking all of West Asia. No matter what the babble, Amerikastan is not under any circumstances going to evict the Ottomans from NATO, even if it could.
2. As a consequence of this, an Ottomanised Azerbaijan is a NATO Azerbaijan in all but name.
3. The idea of “punishing” Armenia by allowing the Ottoman-Azerbaijan-Headchopper Alliance (OAHA for short) to attack Artsakh is absolutely wrong.
(a) It might only play into Pashinyan’s hands, assuming the idea (increasingly being voiced on multiple fora) that he wants to lose the war in order to sacrifice Artsakh and – free of the territorial dispute that might block the accession – join NATO is true. Russia would be faced with a NATO Armenia and a NATOised Azerbaijan together. A good idea? I think not.
(b) Officially, Artsakh isn’t part of Armenia. Therefore it is not responsible for the crimes of the Pashinyan regime. Therefore allowing it to be overrun is ipso facto not an acceptable response to teach *Pashinyan* a lesson.
(c) If Artsakh is overrun, what happens to the other republics that seceded from post Soviet states? What about Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria? What about the two Donbass republics, which let me remind you, Russia doesn’t recognise *either*? Does anyone really think the Ukranazis won’t take the hint that Russia won’t intervene unless they attack Russia itself?
4. If part or all of Nagorno Karabakh is captured by OAHA, what exactly is stopping Sultan Erdogan from repopulating the place with jihadi headchoppers just as he did in Jisr al Shughour with his Uighur imports? A jihadi headchopper ministate in Russia’s underbelly isn’t exactly a great idea.
This is why on a prolonged war of attrition OAHA is guaranteed to win:
1. The Azeri blitzkrieg could never have won and was not designed to win. A look at the map shows that OAHA is enveloping Nagorno Karabakh in a pincer movement from North and South, trying to cut off the territory from Armenia.
2. The Armenian armed forces are strictly limited in their ability to commit personnel to Nagorno Karabakh. They have to keep the bulk of their troops to defend Armenia itself against any possible Azeri-Ottoman attack from the west or north east. It’s the perennial problem of a two front war. In comparison OAHA has no such constraints; it knows that Armenia can’t attack Azerbaijan itself.
3. In order to limit politically disastrous losses the Aliyev regime is using the jihadi headchoppers as shock troops, holding back Azeri forces for the final push, while the Ottomans establish air supremacy over the battlefield.
4. As a consequence of these the Armenian forces will be pinned down and subjected to attrition that they cannot survive.
5. Meanwhile OAHA is deliberately attacking civilians in Stepanakert and elsewhere in order to provoke a refugee exodus into Armenia. This has already been substantially successful with some 50% of the population fleeing.
This is how Russia could have prevented the war in the first place:
1. It is inconceivable that Russian intelligence cannot have been aware that the war was being planned. Therefore the decision to let it happen must have been made.
2. A couple of phone calls and one public statement would have been all that was necessary to stop it from happening.
(i) A phone call to Erdogan saying that Putin knew what he was up to and that it would have dire economic consequences for Russian-Turkish relations, such as another ban on tourism.
(ii) A phone call to Pashinyan saying that Russia isn’t overwhelmed with joy at his actions since 2018 and that if this continues Russia will stand aside and let any future OAHA offensive overrun not just Artsakh but Armenia itself.
(iii) A public statement that Russia will not tolerate the changing of the facts on the ground by military action – by anybody.
I do not see that the Ottomans would dare to begin their aggression under those conditions. And under the *current* conditions I do not see them ending their aggression short of the fall of Artsakh entirely or most substantially.
Not very realistic. You seem to not have seen the map. At least half of the Azeri territory occupied by Armenian forces is not even a part of NK. 700,000 to 1 million Azeris were ethnically cleansed from the area. Prior to the ethnic cleansing, approximately 25% of NK was populated by Azeris.
The Azeris have been preparing to attempt to take back their territory for 24 years unless some sort of just settlement could be reached. NO serious effort has been made by anyone to make such a settlement. This effort to take back their territory was going to happen and there is absolutely nothing Russia could do about it except start a serious effort to resolve the crisis, not merely assist in putting a temporary lid on it.
Hopefully, Russia can mediate the crisis, but with the US “influencing” the Armenian leadership, this will be difficult.
As for Erdoğan, I see no problem with Turkey assisting Azerbaijan with military equipment and logistics. Russia has done the same over the years for Armenia.The problem with Erdoğan is his use of takfiris, and any possible additional purpose he may have other just assisting Azerbaijan. Even Aliev needs to worry about the presence of these takfiris, particularly if they intend to stay.
No, Russia is now make the only logical effort to deal with the crisis at this point. Something that ought to have ben done years ago. Hopefully a just solution can be found, but it will need give and take on both sides, not just take, take on the Armenian side.
Azerbaijan could not even have attempted this without Ottoman help and instigation. It’s an Ottoman operation. Aliyev is a ventriloquist’s dummy for Erdogan.
Why didn’t Moscow prevent this conflict, in your opinion?
What is there to be gained here for Russia? What is at stake?
My opinion is the same as it has been since 2014: Putin is over the hill. It’s well past time for a change.
In my adoptive country they would tell you: “La ferme..”, and I would agree.
“The Ottomans are still a part of NATO. They are still the second largest and by far the best, no comparison at all, in fact the only competent military force in NATO”.
One way to take over an organization is to include more of your allies. How many Turkish allied countries would NATO be willing to accept?
Wow! Lavrov is the highest quality of diplomat out there today. No doubt about it.
The religion of Armenians and Russians is Eastern Orthodox, which is one and the same faith. It is a religion that has nothing to do with biblical Christianity. It isn’t a faith that is logical or worship and knowledge based, it is a faith that is mystical and therefore plays non essential role in people’s real lives and decisions. For comparison, Ukrainians are also Eastern Orthodox, so are Moldovans. Religion plays no role in these people’s personal or political lives.
Russia could afford to lose Armenia, except the consequences can be devastating for Russia. If you take out Armenia then Turkic people have a land bridge from Turkey to Azerbaijan to Turkmenistan to Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Tajikistan Kyrgizistan. And to the North they get access to their brothers in Ossetia and Abkhazia and Chechnya and many other Muslim regions in Russia’s South.
This looks like it would be a much bigger disaster than losing Ukraine and Belarus and Crimea all together.
“the Soviet period was a blessing in many ways for all the non-Russian republics of the Soviet Union” is based on ignorance. Look at the development of countries that didn’t have Soviet influence such as Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and compare them to ex soviet republics, just look at the weird one color buildings and soulless cities and permanently empty grocery shelves even during soviet times. The author clearly didn’t live in the Soviet Union.
And if Russians think they shouldn’t use their wealth to gain friends in Armenia and other places, that is fine, there are others who will be more than willing to jump in to the
Exactly nothing will happen as long as Russia is preventing any radical movement infiltrating from the South Caucasus. Very good border security coupled with an indigenous islamic faith community. The reason why Chechnya exploded was because the Russian statehood was in question. Gorbachev and Eltsin were biggest traitors ever known to the world, who have put in question the unity of Russia and Yeltsin started the Chechen war, by not engaging with the local leadership, which was ready to negotiate.
What land bridge are you talking about? The caucus mountains are in between. Do you think the central asian republics want to live under Erdogan? They are playing the same multi-vector game and are acutely aware, that any political unity with Turkey means an islamization, which they themselves fought of very hard in the recent past.
All these musings about empty shelves are petty distracions from the fact that the Soviet Union invested enormously into its periphery and with Ukraine being the industrial hub. Georgians and the Baltics were quite infamous for their comparatively good living standards. The Soviet Union isn’t an entity which was under developed for all its existence. Starting from the disastrous world wars and civil war, the Soviet Union managed to redevelop in an astronomical amount of time. Than it even overtook the US in space exploration. The US, the single biggest beneficiary of all the 20th century wars. In the 60s American economist feared that the Soviet Union will develop much faster and leave them in the dust. The education system was also a magnitude better than anything in the West. All this bickering about empty stores is uninformed drivel. After the Soviet apparatchiks themselves decided to converge with the West and effectively gave up their ideology, you could speak about the failed Soviet Union. In many ways this was in inside job. I refer to Anrey I. Fursov’s work if you want to know more.
Finally about the good influence of the dear West on 3rd countries. Tell me about these entire regions: Latin America, Middle America, Africa, near East and Middle East, Oceania (like Suharto’s Indonesia). It’s quite ridiculous what you write: Singapore, after being a dictatorship, which is nothing but a middle man for money laundering and financial heaven for corrupt money from all over Asia? Taiwan, which became an military fortification for a future war with China (sure if you give those countries a valuable portion of your export market than there is room for development, just like with Japan, which was crushed after it became to powerful) and finally HK which is also a laundromat and financial prostitute while being an import/export hub for China – this is no big feat at all, just politics and geography.
Well said Nightingale. You have a beautiful nick but in German it has an ominous sub-meaning.
Fantastic article. I’d like to expand on the diaspora problem a bit more. There are about 2 million Armenians and 3 million Azeris in Russia. About 4months ago, when the firs skirmishes were happening, both sides in Russia were starting to fight each other (refused to sell at supermarkets, brawls…). Russians acted swiftly and strict, that’s why there were no big events in this regard.
It is very, very dangerous to let diasporas develop inside your country. All this multicultural nonsense is just a civil war postponed. I think the Russian Empire had the best approached from all political entities in the world. They let their minorities live their lives without prohibiting their language or traditions, but with the most fundamental understanding that they will become part of the Russian family. Those who made that choice live safely and if the liberal tick from the economic levers will be removed, a very prosperous life. The Tatars, Bashkirs etc. have become russified.
It’s extremely dangerous to let these ethnic conflicts into Russia, which the Turks undoubtedly try to achieve. Just a couple of days ago an Azeri-Russian journalist insulted a well known Russian on national tv: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xox3PTSROEs, with Mixeev giving the right response: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxViMoGOwrw
Russia’s relations with Azerbaijan are quite complicated, a fact that is rarely discussed (because not much is known about it) is that the Azerbaijani capital city Baku, is where the CIA commandeered its operations in support of Chechnya’s secession from Russia. Putin has occasionally dropped small amounts of information that cite this fact, one can do a Google search & review his comments, but very little has been revealed. In essence however, Azerbaijan has been a locus for a war of aggression against Russia, that is a fact. Russia’s way of dealing with this has been to use its old Soviet/KGB connections to turn that fact to its advantage by obtaining intelligence that has assisted in the war effort against the Salafi/jihadist forces which operated in Chechnya during the 1990’s under the command of ibn Khattab. Russia’s sale of weapons to Azerbaijan has been a typical way in which the Kremlin gains influence in a country via its military, Russia has been doing the same with Serbia (much to the delight & strong approval of Serbian patriots everywhere). So Russia has been trying to keep Azerbaijan on relatively amicable terms, whilst supporting Armenia in accordance with the old Russian Czarist tradition of support for Christians within the Ottoman Empire & now Christians threatened by neo-Osmanist expansionism & Salafi jihadism – Russia’s intervention in Syria was partially motivated by this consideration. To make matters more complicated, in recent years the US has succeeded in installing a client regime in Armenia, headed by Pashinyan, who is under explicit instructions to sever ties with Russia to whatever extent is possible – meaning completely, if possible. This is not possible, & it has landed Armenia in its current predicament, as Erdogan has used this situation to encourage the Azeri assault on Arstakh/Nagorno-Karabakh. The Kremlin has, in my view, done the right thing, by actually playing a neutral line in all of this, because in the longer term, the situation is likely to go in Russia’s favour a la Belarussia, where US involvement has driven Belarussia to finally turn to Russia lock. stock & barrel – much to Lukashenka’s dismay, but to Russia’s advantage. Something similar is likely to happen in Armenia, where as the pressure builds, the Armenian political & military establishment will likely question where their loyalties lie – & where they ought to lie. I have stated in a comment on this site before, it is essential to Russian national & geopolitical interests to support Armenia – for the simple reason that the Turkish expansionist project is a major threat to Russia, despite recent events & irrespective of the fact that Erdogan’s position has weakened, this neo-Osmanist project remains a major threat nonetheless. And I have also stated that Russian support for Armenia does not translate into Russians dying for Armenia or even expending much in the way of money, the Kremlin should (& no doubt will) make it clear to the Armenian political establishment that Russian support is neither without conditions, neither is it for free. Armenian cultural & civilizational ties to Russia are another issue entirely, & there is no need to go into them here, but Russia does have an interest in helping to preserve Armenian, & Greek & Aramean/Assyrian culture & religion in the Levant. These cultures are distinct, & non-Slavic, but they are related to the Russian Orthodox cultural sphere more broadly & strengthening them is strengthening Russia’s southern flank. Put it this way, the Greek & Armenian civilisation on the Black Sea rim has been attacked by Turkey with wholesale western support precisely because, from the west’s perspective, even Catholic Christianity within the Levant & Middle East is “Russia-centric” & will inevitably align with Russia ultimately. The truth of this may be more nuanced, but this is how the west sees it, & this is why you hear nothing in the western media about the genocide of Christian communities in Syria during the Salafi jihadist western sponsored proxy war of aggression.
Spaseeba Mr Saker, for yet again a lucid and refreshingly analysis on another potential ‘schmuelly’ hot spot which again, thanks also to Comrades Lavrov and Putin, been nipped in the bud. Perhaps a mention of how many Azerais, plus their economic weight, are settled in Iran would have been appropriate. Oh well, just follow the… pipelines!! So to pre-empt Larchxx that only leaves 30000 minus 66?? headchoppers that Syria, Russia, Iran and !!China!! have to RE-EUTHANIZE..
I was wondering, not being on any side here, if the Azerbaijanis + Turks want to so call liberate NK and the surrounding areas that are officially part of Azerbaijan proper, why don’t they just conduct a long and devastating aerial campaign with their combined air-forces on NK, destroying all military bases and equipment ?
Seeing that NK and the surrounding areas (Artsakh) are within internationally recognized Azerbaijani borders, CSTO would not have an excuse to intervene in such a scenario, right ?
Or is such a scenario too risky for Azerbaijan + Turkey ?
If it was that simple then Turkey would intervene in 5 seconds. First of all if it happened then Armenia would use its full arsenal of weapons to strike Azerbaijan. That would mean Islanders flying and hitting Azeri oil and energy infrastructure. And Armenia could attack Nakhichevan and take all of it in a week. The Azeri forces in Nakhichevan are mostly Designed to attack, they are not designed to defend. And Russia would never allow such a scenario to develop anyways. Russian SAM’s from Gyumri would cause devastation to combined Azeri/Turkey Air Force. And if that many F-16’s fell out of the sky in one short conflict it would also doom the US military image. If the Russians don’t defend Armenia in that situation regardless of obligation clauses(who attacked first), then the spirit of CSTO Russian Armenian alliance would be violated. And people like to trash Armenia saying it is a Soros or western client, forgetting that CIA headquarters in Baku caused so much death and destruction to Russians in Grozny in Russian-Chechen wars. Not to mention that neighboring Iran views Azerbaijan as an enemy state for her good relations with Israel and Iran up to this day let’s Russian weapons go thru it’s territory to Armenia.
Yes, Iran has supplied a number of truckloads of ATGM’s/ SHORADS/ MANPADS/ EW/ ECM equipment and small arms to the Armenians as attrition replacements. Iran’s interest here is the status quo endures, jihadi’s kept out and the turkish backed Azeri’s kept from trouble making. Nothing else.
Spot on as usual Saker. Good to see Russia taking centrestage in the region and playing the major role as mediator.
You also posed a very important question and with it a very important lesson to many of us: that lesson being, to always examine the basic premise of a proposition — to wit, does Russia need Armenia in the first place?
I believe — as I think you do — that Russia doesn’t really need Armenia just as it doesn’t need Georgia. It would be nice of course if RF has them onside but RF can live without them. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, is a different kettle of fish. There’s a sizeable ethnic Russian presence there (protection of ethnic Russians in post-Soviet states is written in RF military doctrine) as compared to the small number of Russians in Armenia. In fact Azerbaijan is ‘contested space’ between RF, Turkey, Iran and the Empire.
Speaking of the AZEmpire, it is interesting to note the lack of mention in most Western discussions of the Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict of the elephant in the room and its role. Fortunately for us the elephant itself has spoken:
“Recent fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan exposed Israel as a significant player in the region. Though far apart geographically, Baku and Jerusalem pursue strategic relations.”
So says the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.
Back in 2016, the Jerusalem Post reported:
“Indeed, relations between the two countries are excellent and getting better against the backdrop of the renewed cycle of hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Israeli-made weapons were seen used by the Azeri army in the battlefield. Azeri President Ilham Aliyev sees it as “strategic alliance,” and so it is perceived in Israel, too.”
Strategic indeed. Trade between Azerbaijan and Israel is USD 5 billion more than between it and France. Israel boasted of supplying Azerbaijan with military equipment that is even more advanced than Russia’s, Baku supplies 40% of Tel Aviv’s oil, and of course there’s the small matter of a major Mossad presence in Baku.
It is arguably a matter of conjecture but it appears that Turkey has an accomplice — and, ironically, also a competitor — in encouraging Aliyev to wage war against N-K, much to the detriment of RF and the region.
ln postscript, I think it’s also important to remember that post-Soviet Russia is only as old as the other post-Soviet states but under VVP, Russia, the nation, has found it’s feet faster than the others.
Why do you call it the AZEmpire?
What role do the Anglos play other than slave?
What does Israel get from the US? What does the USA get from Israel? This equation is symbolic of the role of each.
It is the Zionist Empire. It is a novel form of empire. It is not a colonial empire like ancient Greece. It is not a cultural empire like the Catholic Church. And it is not like ancient Rome, a simple capitalist military dictatorship kind of empire.
It is a parasitic form of imperial domination, where the imperial overlords’ very survival depends on anonimity and stealth. Who knows who they are or what they want?
All we know is the endless disinformation that they send our way, like the term Anglo-Zionist empire, a concept that is based on white supremacist self-flattery.
The Zionists have the same sway in China and Russia as they have in the USA. They control all digital movement of money, all banking. If you want to know what countries are part of the empire, ask your bank what countries they will wire money to.
That list of countries, which includes both Armenia and Azerbaijan, is the Zionist empire.
All armed conflict is their doing. They will not allow armed conflict between their member states, if and when it doesn’t suit them, like the EU. Other times they will push forward a jackass like Erdogan with promises of a return to Ottoman glory. If they did not will it, Armenia and Azerbaijan would not be blasting each other to bits right now.
Please detail and explain how the Zionists control the digital movement of money, all banking in China.
It is a simple deduction. Iran is under sanctions imposed by the empire. As of two months ago “Russian and Chinese banks refuse to provide banking services to Iranians,” according to the head of Iran – China Joint Chamber of Commerce Majid Reza Hariri.
“At present we do not have any banking transactions with Russia and China, and if someone with an Iranian passport goes to these banks, they refuse to handle any financial service.”
If Russia and China are truly enemies of the empire, as they are being portrayed in the media, you would think they’d band together with Iran, their neighbor who is also an enemy of the empire.
Russia and China do not have sovereign banking sectors. Both countries are enemies of the USA, sure, if enemies do billions of dollars trade together, but they are most certainly friends of Israel.
Not many countries out there with the nerve to openly oppose Israel, which is tantamount to opposing the Zionist empire.
@Jamshyd, you just keep tugging on that wool, the light will get in. Amazing how many people can’t fathom the financial control held by the ziothugs, nice you point out that it’s not country specific but international, and even the ‘heros of today’ are in bed to some’s dismay.
“countries with no nerve” that’s why it comes down to the individual, countries are controlable and while some may say, ‘boycott does nothing’ ……….it does, because it’s personal. And it starts with each person. We have the numbers, and if we keep our money in check (any idea how to end materialism) they loose……..
sean the leprechaun,
“..(any idea how to end materialism).. ”
Since you asked, as a matter of fact, I do. It is called the primacy of consciousness paradigm, as opposed to the primacy of matter paradigm, which all our sciences hinge on.
Thousands of years ago a man named Zarathushtra believed that we have an enemy out there, working against mankind, and working against all life on earth. Zarathushtra claimed that the enemy wields a great and deadly weapon called the Lie, capital L.
The Lie is the idea that we are material objects, living in a material world surrounded by other material objects, ie. materialism. All of our sciences today have this idea as their starting point.
Zarathushtra believed that the only thing effective against the Lie, is an even more powerful weapon called the Truth, capital T.
The Truth is that we are not meat and bone objects as we have been led to believe, and we are not surrounded by a world of objects either. We are made of energy, and we are surrounded by a universe of energy. Science today agrees that all matter is essentially just fields of energy, but scientists cannot revert back to a state of energy themselves. This is because we have been trapped.
The physical body is our prison, where we rot away in bondage, fulfilling the base desires of an animal, until we die. In our desperation, trapped in a flesh box on this floating ball, we hoard and take solace in material objects and belongings.
Money is the ultimate expression of our wretched materialist state.
Out there in that vastness, energy is the universal currency. Energy is what animates us, the world, everything. We are beings made of energy, and we generate energy.
Consciousness is the ultimate expression of our energy.
The primacy of consciousness paradigm, with some tweaks, is the way out of this hell. It is the beginning of the path towards discovering what we really are, and liberating ourselves from the chains that bind us.
We are magical beings. Every moment that we are alive and conscious is a miracle beyond all understanding. We waste our lives, bored, feeling like we know all there is to know… Nonsense. We know nothing. We haven’t even begun to explore what’s out there.
The first step is getting out of the prison of the self, which is the prison of wretched boredom where all of our ancestors died.
And the Jews say, “The hand of Allah is chained.” Chained are their hands, and cursed are they for what they say. Rather, both His hands are extended; He spends however He wills. And that which has been revealed to you from your Lord will surely increase many of them in transgression and disbelief. And We have cast among them animosity and hatred until the Day of Resurrection. Every time they kindled the fire of war, Allah extinguished it. And they strive throughout the land [causing] corruption, and Allah does not like corrupters.
Why do I call it the Anglo-Zionist Empire?
Read this. The author puts it way better than I can ever hope to.
The Zionists have created their own country, a new country, in the modern age. It is an unthinkably grand accomplishment.
The rationale that the Anglos felt sorry for the Jews so they set up a country for them is nonsense. Is this their one good deed ever? Why don’t they set up a country for each of the various Native American groups and give them billions of dollars of free US taxpayer money?
In my opinion, the Zionists were already pulling the strings 200 years ago, when they had Russia partition the South Caucasus region in a way that half the Azeris and Taleshis would be in Iran, and the other half in Russia, in anticipation of stoking future conflict.
Same pattern as how they divided the Ottoman lands a hundred years later, with half the Arabs and Kurds in one country, and half of them in another.
I have heard that the Jews brought the Mongol horde down on the Islamic empire, because they could not practice their usury in Islamic lands, and as long as the Islamic empire stood, Christian Europe would never be more than a third rate power, which meant the Jews and their banking scams would never go global.
I always did find it strange that the Mongols did not go all the way to England, which I believe they easily could have after defeating Kievan Rus. And it has come to light that there was definitely some understanding between the Vatican and the Mongols.
This thing with the Jews goes back a very long time. They didn’t suddenly pop up as a dominant global power after WW2.
They’ve been planning world domination for centuries, and they have stuck to their plan generation after generation. The Anglos were simply their Golem.
Venetian nobility, Jamshyd. The first business bankers. They worked together with the Templars, against the Genoese and the Order of Malta, which was good with the Pope. Phoenician families. Kartaga versus Rome, today they work together. Why didn’t they continue towards Europe … do you remember Marco Polo? It was not the Vatican directly, but the Venetians, who like merchants, used their connections to help Catholic Europe, which wanted to get rid of the Orthodox part. For the money. And they brought the plague to Europe when Europe did not listen. They moved from Venice to Amsterdam, made the first “democratic republic”, and then moved to London. You know the story of the West and East Indian Company. You are talking about Jewish Zionists, but I think a better term would be converted Zionists. Of different religions. Globalists want control of the world, not some part of the desert in the Middle East. Obsessed with Anunnaki history, blood lines and astrology. Yahweh sent the Jews into the world to help people find monotheism. This is the part that remained angry with Yahweh, so they turned to the devil to come to the goal of complete domination. And not only Jews but also fake christians and muslims. They have a “big time” connections in russian and chinese elite society. Do not forget that a part of the Jews from Sabath Zevi converted to Islam in Istanbul in the 17th century, and they are connected with the Domneh society, which still rules a large part of Turkish politics. Since then, coincidentally or not, the Ottoman Empire has begun to decline into decadence. Do not forget that Frank converted to Catholicism with 25,000 Jews in Lvov in the 18th century. That Weishaupt is also a convert doing the Illuminati when Jesuits are banned across Europe. Zionists are globalists, Jewish Israelis are the bait for a future war. Ordinary people who to this day take the wall of the fortress of Antonia as the wall of the temple, and not the one in the part of David where the water source is.
They already have their globalism, and new world order.
There is a giant banking network, made possible by computers and the internet, that holds the details of practically every citizen of the world. They know everyone’s real name, address, phone number, job, and income. They know everything people buy, if it is not payed for with cash.
But not only do they know everything about everyone, they also hold tremendous power over everyone. People cannot buy anything, unless the bank confirms the transaction. People cannot eat, have a home, or travel anywhere, without the bank.
And what the bank is saying is basically that all money is theirs by right, and they reserve the right to lend their money at interest to whomever they wish, and refuse whomever they wish. In addition to holding monopoly on the means of trade, they are also always owed a great deal of money.
This bank is almost completely global now. Which means your bank card is valid almost everywhere in the world, but it also means that almost everyone in the world is at their mercy.
This is their new world order. And if you go against them, they will simply refuse to offer you any kind of financial services.
They have every country in the world, all together refusing to do any kind of financial transaction with Iran, because Iran is a rogue state that does not submit to them.
Russia and China are not the saviors. If Iran falls, it is all over, their banking network will have achieved completion, full global coverage.
At this time, 11h45 am GMT, in France, none of the main stream medias, none, has spoken about the cease fire in RNK.
We frenchmen can only hear the teeth grinding from the news rooms:
“Damned, winter is not even here, we’ll notre able to say Russians wan thanks to the snow”
Artsakh is as much a part of Azerbaijan as Golan Heights are a part of Syria or Crimea is a part of Ukraine. Only losers care about the international opinion. If Armenians are smart they should start a long term plan of conquering more territory East of Nagorno Karabakh and populating it with Talish and Lezgi minorities and arming them, this creating a buffer zone between Armenians and Azeris.
I suspect that if Armenia, already ilegally occupying Azerbaijani territory, made a concerted effort, as an agressor to take more Azeri territory, then Aliev could invite Turkey to assist more directly in the same way Libya did and the way Syria invited Russia into their war.
Armenia proper would then become a legitimate target, as the agressor, and Russia would and the CSTO would have to decide if it was justified to aid an illegal agressor. Remember to this point the war has been contained to internationally recognized Azeri territory. Azerbaijan has not attacked Armenia.
I cannot see Russia or the CSTO assisting Armenia if were to committ further agression against Azerbaijan’s territory, without Azerbaijan committing serious agression against Armenian territory. This would be a state’s illegal action against another UN member, and any defence by Azeri, with allies, would be legally justfiied. Armenia has no legal right to occupy Azeri territory.
Onw onders…apart from Russia…how the other members of the OSCE group will particpate and what can be achieved….considering the current russophobic hiatus and state of international relations between Russia and the rest… if they do not play ball in a reasonable timetable( eg Astana proces re Syria is it progressing much and Ukraine dying re Minsk Donbasss) but use the situation for their own political agendas against Russia ….would Russia go it alone to enforce a settlement..considering the failure of OSCE so far….?
This was an excellent summary of the situation in the Caucasus. Left out, though, is the ongoing relationship between Azerbaijan and Israel. Both nations see Iran as an existential threat. Also, Israel imports 40% of its oil from Azerbaijan.
The Zionist part of the Anglo-Zionist Empire would like nothing better than increased pressure on Iran by reopening the Sitalchay airbase in Azerbaijan so that when the “big one” comes, Israel can operate from a base just 500 km from the Iranian border. The “big one” of course is the false-flag attack on the USA that will be blamed on Iran, just like 9/11 was blamed on the Arabs. That horrible event led to all the f-ing wars of this century, all for Israel. This war will almost certainly involve Russia and might even be the “October surprise” that we’ve been waiting for here in the USA, the one that will take the heat off Trump (and Netanyahu) before the November elections. Yes, pure speculation, but sadly it’s happened before. It could happen again.
Israel’s name is left out of the record all the time. They have nothing to do with anything. They just mind their own business.
Israel is the main player in this conflict, not just because they are a black market arms dealer and they are stoking conflict everywhere, but as you said, because Israel wants a foothold on the Iranian border, as we are witnessing with the UAE, in addition to wanting to destabilize the Iranian border and fanning the flames of Azeri separatism, like they’ve been doing with the Kurds.
I’m certain that you are much more familiar this this topic than Americans like me will ever be. All I know for sure is that in the 21st Century all of our warring has been done for the sake of Israel, not because of so-called “terrorism”, not for the oil, or for any other phony pretext… Israel, that’s it.
the peace seems only convenience to re arm and re position. i also doubt any conflict bordering iran doesnt have a zionist string or two, whose name was not mentioned once.
Well, wasn’t Azerbaijan using Israeli-made drones? So there definitely is a Zionist connection in this affair, no doubt!
To me the main problem is the Turkish influence in the region. They want as you’ve said a Pan -Turkish Empire.And have wanted that since the Ottoman days.Russia currently does not have the manpower to fight the wars that the Turks would stir up throughout Central Asia Turkic states.While also defending herself in many other places. And if Turkey gains control in Azerbaijan there will be Turkish and puppet Azeri agents stirring the pot in the Russian Caucasus region.Then that could lead to more troops fighting in the Caucasus. And not sure how,but Russia must stop Turkey.This situation is an existential threat to the survival of the Russian Federation. Right now the only thing standing in Turkey’s way is Armenia. So no matter how pissed off Russia might be at the Armenians. If they go down,Turkey has a clear road to Russia’s soft underbellies.
It seems to me there is too much leaning towards Turkish – Russian hostility. This is to who’s advantage, one can surmise.
Andrew Korybko argues Armenia is playing a dubious game and pushinyan is using terminology like ‘clash of civilisations’ which is somewhat irresponsible. His statements regarding Turkey are music to the ears of many hear in the west who are clearly ‘upset’ with Turkey. BBC and others seem to be very interested in interviewing Armenias plight. France almost openly supports Armenia. A France significantly part of the Syrian destabilization and friendly with many despots. Not to mention their gross interference in Lebanon of late (Macron specifically). A true Zio representative. This doesn’t inspire France’s role in the OSCE Minsk group.
Andrew also points out that Armenia is pushing an infowar strategy against Azerbaijan. Considering Pushinyan was a media man he knows how to play this game.
Andrew further argues it would be advantageous for Russia to see a Azerbaijan push to teach the soros sponsored velvet revolution leader a lesson for his coddling up with the west to bring it back to its senses.
The point is a simple narrative pointing in the direction of Turkey seems rather subjective or favourable to a current western narrative. It also attempts to further alienate any potential Turkish Russian co-operation in the matter of stability in this region.
I think reading Andrew’s articles below are an essential balancing act in this particular conflict and its useful he is a Moscow based political analyst.
Andrew Korybko was wrong every time.
Don’t take my word for it, but read something past articles of his to see how correctly he was analizing happenings.
Wierd for Korybko to claim that it is “unconfirmed” that Turkey has dispatched Syrian jihadis to Azerbaijan.
This has been confirmed by several sources and also top leadership in Russia, Iran, Syria and France:
Korybko then tries to make a rather convoluted case that, even if such groups were present…that not all of some are so bad…ie. some of them are “good terrorists”. Lol!
You couldn’t help not providing clarity from the very sources you so confidently link to. Perhaps you overlooked the following statements. The headlines were enough to validate your point of view. This is exactly the MO of MSM. You should add at least be more diligent for your own sake:
Speculation about “Syrian mercenaries” flocking into the inflamed Nagorno-Karabakh hotspot has been rife since the conflict broke out on September 27. Late on Tuesday, Sergey Naryshkin, chief of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), said “mercenaries from the international terrorist organizations fighting in the Middle East” are moving into the conflict zone on a par with “extremist Kurdish groups.”
Elaborating on his country’s worries, Rouhani stressed it is “unacceptable” that “certain people want to transfer some terrorists from Syria and other places to the [South Caucasus] region and near our borders.” The Iranian president did not clarify what country is sourcing auxiliary manpower from conflict-ridden Syria but said this message was conveyed to both Yerevan and Baku.
While not naming names, it was clear the message was intended for Turkey and Azerbaijan. Earlier this week, the Guardian and Reuters both reported that Turkish-backed militants from the Syrian province of Idlib, previously sent to fight for Ankara in Libya, have been recruited to go to Azerbaijan and work in “security” roles.
While the Western media outlets made sure to note they could not independently verify the claims of the militants they interviewed.
If you’d at least read the point being made. European media in particular is disproportionately hostile to Turkey for whatever reason. Hence, the sources you provide are Zio outlets and France seems to be the most vocal, not surprisingly.
You obviously have no idea how diplomatic language works nor are you keeping with the articles and Twitter accounts.
Now stop polluting the comments with articles by Korybko. We all have his number. He is known mouthpiece of NATO/ Israel/ Turkey axis
Yes, a good article that some commenters here need to read. a quote
Armenia’s five-phase infowar strategy against Azerbaijan started off by selectively relying on international law but has quickly climaxed to the point of alleging an ongoing “clash of civilizations” between Christianity and Islam. Even Bush, whose two wars on Muslim-majority Afghanistan and Iraq led to indescribable destruction, said that “there is no clash of civilizations”, yet Pashinyan is portraying his war on Muslim-majority Azerbaijan as precisely one such example of that so-called “clash”. This is an extremely dangerous development that could provoke inter-religious violence across the world if radically inclined folks from either faith or even others are misled into believing it. At all costs, Armenia’s fearmongering about a “clash of civilizations” must therefore be exposed and debunked. It cannot be allowed to settle in the minds of the world’s people otherwise it could accelerate preexisting “Balkanization” processes in identity-diverse and conflict-prone regions.”
Both Pepe Escobar and Saker have written perceptive articles recently on this issue. This Andrew Korybko article capable of significant insight into the actual issues.
A short while ago Pashinian was in NK and made a public speech saying NK and Armenia were one.That Armenia would always protect that region. So I don’t see how he can survive politically if he let’s it fall to the Azeris.Another thing about him,why has Russia not used the time honored method of bribing him.It’s certainly been done before by Russia. So why neglect to do it in a region so vital to Russia’s survival. And in the Central Asian Republics as well. In a perfect peaceful world we wouldn’t need to use bribery. But we don’t live in that world. And when a case of survival is involved, bribe away.
Looks like the usual Caucasian Combination of Complications……resulting in yet another “Mexican Standoff” of mostly poor, desperate men staring each other down…..ready to kill each other…….with the women and children cowering and weeping in the villages and towns
I don’t question any of the article’s analysis of all of the myriad details except for one understandable (but doubtful, to me) assumption:
That the USA is monolithically and eternally IMPERIAL in general popular consensus….and could NEVER-EVER gain a more freed up ability to reflect republicanism rather than hegemonism…….in the next presidential term…… and beyond.
The better outcome for ALL Sides (including the Turkish people….if they can form a new consensus that there are gains to be had for their own well being, by trading away Erdogan’s Ego (and a bit of their own diminishing portion of that) does become measurably MORE possible…..although it is an enormously challenging and complicated puzzle…….if the above sentence in bold…..turns out to be FALSE.
Therefore having the courage and optimism to do all in one’s capacities to MAKE IT FALSE, rather than insisting (as Americans or as non-Americans…. powerlessly in the grip of madness)……. that it MUST always and eternally remain so……………… is the needed ingredient……. to even conceive of any lasting peace or even eventual (new generations of Armenians and Azeris in 25-50 years) friendly relations between these mostly impoverished peoples…played as pawns.
So, we might return ever so briefly to the focus of most Americans, which is NOT on the Caucasus (except for some Black Hats in the “Intelligence Services” —THE worst and most dangerous enemy of American citizens—-with special CIA “skills” for stirring up trouble for their RoundTable and CFR Masters….) but November 3, 2020 and wonder what might happen 2021-2024 if the some of the worst demons within those “Intelligence” Services…………end up in Guantanamo Bay.
Agreed fully that if no such thing happens, nothing good can be expected from us….and the US…..in the Local Neighborhood in Question……or anywhere else abroad……or for that matter, NOR in any neighborhood “at home” EITHER!
The current chaotic trajectory we see in Nagorno Karabak becomes a generalized planetary trajectory of fratricidal conflict (even on US territory…which we’ve seen some recent “previews” of….for THAT “movie”) for at least decades to come, in that case.
Which is why it is worth the gamble, to “think outside the box” and reject that movie…wherever the “set” for it is being constructed and script for it being polished up….and the actors for it being cast. hired….and paid.
Boycott NETFLIX! LOL. Seriously!
Then, in terms of “thinking outside the box” and looking at the map of the area provided with this article, I got a perhaps naive and silly question, in terms of what “pieces of a deal” might exist locally besides the WIn-Win-Win goodies that might come along longer term, for all concerned, with the building out of The World Landbridge…..under the Development Is the New Name of Peace………..Potential Great Powers Policy Agreement, which I ask, minimally just as an exercise….an example…….. to get others thinking “outside” these “boxed-in” Caucasian Conundrums:
I see besieged Armenians boxed in and surrounded in the Mountains of Azerbaijan…..with no land corridor to Armenia proper
To the southwest I see an area of VERY comparable size, green in color on the first map called “Nakhchivan” ostensibly inhabited by or politically more Azeri than Armenian…….ALSO boxed in with no land corridor to Azerbaijan.
The makings of a trade of territory come to mind. Only conceivable within comprehensive Peace Deal….the antagonists are too weak and divided to even imagine…..lacking as they are …in too many ingredients needed to make any such thing …..actually function.
Sure there would be complexities to work out……but with Great Power Security Guarantees for ALL….. such challenges (in my hypothetical example exercise) are imminently more solveable within a few months…in concept and working treaty form…and perhaps a decade in terms of relocation, formal final treaties for new borders….AND .the beginning taste of economic benefits of connection to the world market provided by China’s OBOR……….etc, etc, etc.
And so, I return to the US election 24 days away.
Which outcome Nov 3 MIGHT make that Great Power Cooperation possible…….after some of those Black Hat “Intelligence Professionals” are convicted, sentenced….and incarcerated…and their blackmailed minions in the US State Department……..are retired, fired and replaced???
And which outcome would definitely preclude ANY deviation from the Empire Divide and Conquer model…targeting the entirety of humanity outside of US borders….but also within them….in the not-so-much-more-distant future…..than in the area this article focuses on???
Nakhchivan has 400k people and is 5,500 km2 (2,100 sq mi).
ROA has under 200k people and 11,500 km2 (4,440 sq mi).
Okay let’s just move people and do a territory swap. Approximately the eastern half of NOA goes to the Azeris and Nakchivan goes to the Armenians along with the western half of NOA.
The people can leave or stay under and be citizens of their new country. Their choice.
Just my SWAG at a possible solution to the situation.
Any sign of Pashnyan realizing the impotence of his new masters yet? For any meaningful involvement Russia should demand that Armenia cut the oversized US precense and close both Pentagram biowarfare labs. At least the latter which is a direct threat to Russia.
Just imagine Russia surprisingly opens biowarfare lab in Venesuela, not saying in Cuba or Mexico. What would USA do?
Bomb the lab the very next day. Including government buildings etc.
What was Moscow waiting for? Until Armenia/Gruzia joins NATO and become untouchable?
No use of Zirkon if not used…
Вставай страна огромная, вставай на смертный бой – пока не поздно ещё!!!
Sheik Imran’s take on the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict: ( sorry about the YouTube ads)
good analysis… lots of reality… of the factors… THANKS…
Deputy Zatulin in Russian Duma
“What neutrality?” What Azeri point of view to take into account? Armenia is Russia’s ally և end point. And Nagorno Karabakh is an Armenian land with its churches and Christian culture. “It is in our interest to recognize the independence of Nagorno Karabakh.” Russian State Duma+
Does he represent a substantial group of peoples that do not consider eg Turkey as well to be a reliable trustworthy associate of Russia maybe….and that that might be used to influence events….particularly if Azer seems to continue its bravado and bellicose aims and propaganda and break the truce or as we have found re Idlib….that Azer could like Turkey prevaricate and fail to fully support Russia etc.
Many ceasefires re Ukraine and Donbass….still damages and civilians suffering until nearly recently. OSCE messed up many times and seems powerless to really do much.Could the N-K situation follow a similar path….and what options and mechanisms there to prevent that there….
MOSCOW – Russian President Vladimir Putin called the ongoing military face-off in disputed Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) “a tragedy” and indicated his willingness to honor Russia’s long-standing mutual defense treaty with Armenia, if the country required such help. Speaking to the Rossiya TV network, Putin noted that two million Azerbaijanis and over two million Armenians live in Russia, and that a huge number of Russian citizens maintain “close, friendly and even familial relations with both republics”. “This is a tragedy,” the president said, adding, “We are very worried, because Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Nagorno-Karabakh are all territories inhabited by people who are not strangers to us.” Although Russia acts in an official capacity as a meditator of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, Yerevan and Moscow are officially allied as part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), along with Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. According to the organization’s agreement, aggression against one CSTO member is perceived as aggression against all. Therefore, if Azerbaijan attacks Armenia territory, Russia is legally obliged to help Armenia. “As you know, Armenia is a member of the CSTO, and we have certain obligations to Armenia under this agreement,” Putin explained, stating, “To our great regret, the fighting is still going on, but it is not being conducted on the territory of Armenia.” The president noted that Russia will continue to fulfill all of its obligations under the mutual defensive treaty, and has urged Yerevan and Baku to agree on a ceasefire.
After the eighth hour of the negotiations, it was clear to me, the Russians have locked them in in the negotiation room. That’s the way to do it, I thought to my satisfaction, and indeed, after five more hours, they have seen the light. Thru the keyhole, whatever, but Russians can do it, and thanks God, they seem to know that they can.
No way someone can do whatever comes to his mind on the Russian frontiers, his name be Erdogan, Aliyev Pashinyan, or whatever, and they should know it, as well; a wonder they did not know it already.
This ceasefire agreement will not work for one minute. There is not strong independent military force to control implementation of this agreement.
And this war will continue.
Saker, I would appreciate an understanding as to why Armenia never formally ‘annexed’ Nagorno Karabakh into itself. It would seem that just letting NK dangle in limbo would be the worst possible scenario for both Armenia and NK. It just invites aggression and adventurism, as is seen today. Plus, it keeps Russia from legally responding until Armenia proper is attacked. Could you do a micro-column (here) to inform the lay reader? Thanks.
Because all the heads of government listen to the Black-Red international, without that they are not among the living politicians. Take the example of the Republic of Serbian Krajina in Croatia. Identical situation with the Serbian leadership. Study this material and you will realize that globalists either have very little imagination or, in addition to today’s modern consumers, do not even need it.
Could have made the entire article real short:
The conflict there does not pose an immediate threat to Americans. So, no, the U.S. should not intervene.
One side or the other winning could impact U.S. business interests but that is not a good enough reason for war.
And I don’t give a crap what religion they are. They could be super duper Christian’s and that is no better reason than business interests to me. We aren’t obligated to defend all Christians in regional disputes.
The conflict there does not pose an immediate threat to Americans. So, no, the U.S. should not intervene.
If only Americans thought like you beginning…well, I don’t know, 1776? Certainly after WW2. The world would have been a much nicer place.
Several high-ranking Russian intelligence officials have indicated that there’s a danger of Jihadist infiltration in the Caucasus and even into Russia itself.
As we all know, once the jihadists entrench themselves in one region, it becomes extremely tough to uproot them, and Idlib should serve as a good example. Despite the obvious military superiority of Russia and SAA (of course other factors certainly contribute to the situation as well) in the region, the Idlib Jihadist enclave remains.
Concretely, the prime reason Russia should back Armenia in this conflict is to prevent a victory for Erdogan that would, in turn, lead to numerous other consequences, all bad for Russia, for Russia doesn’t need a Turkish wedge in the Caucasus between herself and Iran. The importance of this can’t be stressed enough.
Russia has the means to support Armenia without ever intervening in this war, and she has a pretext to do so, considering Armenia’s membership in CSTO. Supplying Armenia with military gear is the way to go, as it ensures that Armenia holds out and makes the conflict costly for Azerbaijan and Turkey. It’s one of the most effective ways to hurt your enemy – make the war costly for him, so he must reassess his position and whether the war is really worth it.
As for Russia and Serbia, the latter is now moving steadily away from Russia. It won’t be long before Serbia will find itself completely under Washington’s thumb. But that’s a different topic altogether.
Bit of a cheek from Turkey
Cavusoglu, Lavrov Discuss Ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkish Foreign Ministry Source Reveals “Our minister [Cavusoglu] held a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and asked him to warn the Armenian side about the observance of the ceasefire in Karabakh,” the source said.
Hope Russia is really not believing Turkish and Azer claims about events…..hope it is checking absolutely everything by satellite and intelligence so it can confront any falsehoods.
Lots of MSM pundits as well as social media commentators, including on this site, state that NK is recognised as Azeri territory
No one seems to acknowledge that it was Stalin that gave the region to Azerbaijan in 1923, despite the fact that it was populated in majority by Armenians.
Any difference to what Khrushchev did with Crimea several decades later?
So an independent Crimea in 2014 was OK, but an independent NK in 1988 was “against international laws”? Sounds a bit hypocritical to me…
This analysis cynical in the sense that affirms that Russia follows the international laws and that is why Artsakh was not recognized by it. Have we forgotten about Crimea, Ossetia and the like? Could we have we forgotten it? Come on. I personally as a Basque defend the right of the nations to selfdetermination so to me it is OK with the secesion of these bits of territory because in the first hand they became regions of new states and they were not consulted with the constitution of the new states, so this invoking the international law is a fake argument and nothing else.
Russia tries to have some balance between AZ and AR, and it is again OK, but the moment TK showed up in force I don’t see how Russia can stand if the war goes on. That is the big fear of Russia.
Recent developments demonstrate that for Russia, nothing is gained by allowing Armenia and Republic of Azerbaijan (ROA) to engage in direct conflict, and in this case, one which has been instigated by Turkey in alliance with global Zionism for the purpose of igniting a wider regional war targeting Russia and Iran, which would quickly spark into all-out world war.
While it is commonly observed that Iran traditionally (and consistently) backs Armenia in any dispute with ROA, when it comes to direct military conflict between the two, as with Russia, Iran gains absolutely nothing. Thus, while not ideal, for Russia and Iran maintaining the status quo between Armenia and ROA (including keeping Artsakh in existence) is always of paramount importance, because as long as there is a peaceful status quo, US/EU/NATO and global Zionism (or the Adversary, as I like to term the whole lot of them) can make only so many inroads into the Caucasus. Out-and-out war between Armenia and ROA (or in the Caucasus in general), regardless of the ultimate result, will always work to the advantage of the Adversary, which feeds and thrives on mass human casualties and destruction of nations.
I have observed that it is often claimed that Iran fears conflict with ROA because of its own Azeri citizens, who form almost half the population. However, this is nonsense because there is very little commonality shared between Iranian Azeris and Azeri citizens of ROA other than language. Iranian Azeri culture is entirely different and is heavily Persianized, whereas ROA is one of the most racist anti-Persian regimes in the world and anti-Persian attitudes are entrenched throughout ROA society. Anti-Persian Iranian Azeris (separatist types and the like) are few and far between and typically end up in terror cells associated with MKO/MEK. ROA is truly a Zionist-led regime, so much so that they covertly sponsor MKO/MEK terrorists while publicly claiming they oppose it. It should be noted that most international media never disclose the fact that MKO/MEK is majority Turkic (Azeri/Turkmen), Kurdish and Baloch, which helps to explain its fundamental anti-Persianism. Rajavi herself is 100% Turkic.
Unfortunately, and ironically, over the last few years Armenia seems to be well on its way to following ROA in desiring to become a puppet regime of global Zionism. Up to now they had been striving to move as close as possible to Israel in diplomacy and trade, but perhaps this recent conflict will be enough to force the Armenian state to reconsider embracing Zionism, which is total insanity as it requires sacrificing their sovereignty to an international cartel of parasites. But I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Armenia does indeed decide to continue becoming a Zionist colony. This is an insanity which seems to be very difficult to cure, and after a certain point, even impossible to resist.
‘advantage of the Adversary, which feeds and thrives on mass human casualties and destruction of nations.’
The adversary, The West, is sadly a empire made of human bones.
“However, this is nonsense because there is very little commonality shared between Iranian Azeris and Azeri citizens of ROA other than language.”
They have the same religion too.
The Kurds are an Iranian people, and they want their own country. How could it be that the Azeris, who are not Iranian, are not susceptible to the same separatist sentiments?
There is, in fact, pan-Turkist sentiment among Iranian Turks, and while they are quite Persianized as you say, they have also held on to their own tongue for nearly a thousand years while living in Iran.
And the Rouhani administration, instead of trying to Persianize them further, has them reading Dade Qorqud at school instead of Shahnameh. True Iranian spirit of tolerance, or true fifth columnist behavior by Rouhani, who knows.
However, the standard of life in Iranian Azerbaijan makes the Republic of Azerbaijan look like a soviet shithole, which it is, which is why no one in Iran is going to give serious thought to such a stupid idea as joining the ROA.
Then again, the Turks are not famous for being the smartest people in Iran.
I must disagree with Saker here. Russia (and Iran even more so) does indeed need little Armenia to stop this neo Ottomanism. One can argue Russia doesn’t really need Syrians or Ossetians either but allowing your enemies to gain ground in your vicinity isn’t wise no matter how strong your armed forces may be.
It is entirely understandable that Russians are tired of the ingratitude of these so called brother nations. But I don’t think Armenians have been particularly ungrateful. They know their state survival depends on Russia. They now have a moron for president but they didn’t get rid of the previous one because of any anti Russianism.
Lastly, Armenia cannot sell itself to the West even if it wanted to. Armenia is different from say Ukraine or Belarus, in that it doesn’t really have much direct utility for the West. On the contrary, it is the natural enemy of their proxies; and thus like the Arab Christians, a hindrance to Western designs.
Well written, thanks to Saker to let the audience dive into realities in that region.
Well now, this ceasefire didn’t last very long, did it? You’d imagine that the word “temporary” meant exactly what it said.
Not sure where the author gets the idea that an openly anti-Russian Azerbaijan (member of Guuam, an ally of ne-ottoman Turkey) is more friendly to Russia than a traditional ally like Armenia. The mental gymnastics to make that point are similar to the stuff you come across in mainstream media like NYT.
One more statistic that the author has overlooked. A small number of both Armenians and Azeris volunteered to fight in Novorussia. 100% of Armenians fought on the side of Novorussians. 100% of Azeris fought on the side of Ukraine.
I would argue that it is important to look at history in determining international law. Such as in the case of Israel, the 1948 borders are recognized by UN, not anything else. But I would still argue that one should look beyond 1948, to the League of Nations, and determine that Palestine is the rightful nation, The Mandate of Palestine states that a homeland for jews is created in Palestine, nothing is going to change the rights of the Palestinian people in that respect. But was not all that also corrupt, a zionist coup d’etat ?
In the case of Armenia, Armenia was the recognized people with their inherent rights, especially considering its status and defender of their lands throughout history. It may well be that they have been illegally derived of these rights, by another entity the Turkic tribes coming from central Asia and creating Turkey during the Osman (Ottoman) empire. By operating in the wake of Arab conquest, the Turks controlled the successor Osman Empire, killing off the peoples of the land and continuing this strategy to this day. The occupiers are still in power: Turkey, in fact they killed everyone else into oblivion.
Some sources/material can be worth closer study and given consideration:
The Armenian genocide is well known, Ottoman and Ataturk and other massacres and genocides in the region are lurking beneath the surface. For example modern genocides that even inspired Adolf Hitler :
The Armenia church was very much the orthodox christianity based on early Middle Eastern Christianity that created the Russian Christian Church. (Byzantine) .
Just some very basic bullet points that this article doesn’t mention that are very important if one wishes to appear intelligent when discussing the topic of Karabakh.
• Both Azerbaijan and Armenia were armed by Russia to fight each other to a stalemate. The Azeris have the tanks and the mobility to invade and hold ground; Armenia does not. The Armenians have the air defenses and the artillery to frustrate any attempt to invade and hold ground; the Azeris do not.
• At this point both sides have realized that something has gone horribly wrong. The only face-saving maneuver for them is to go to Moscow and sign a peace deal.
• The Khanate of Karabakh is neither Azeri nor Armenian, although it has enclaves of both ethnicities. It was Persian, then it was Russian, then Soviet. If it were not for traitors like Gorbachev and Yeltsin it would be Russian again. The Soviets arbitrarily assigned it to be administered by Azerbaijan as an autonomous region. To take sides in terms of who should own it is downright stupid. It is an ancient mosaic of ethnic enclaves to be preserved and protected by whatever regional empire happens to be powerful at the time. Right now that’s Russia; before that it was Persia.
• The Turkish dreams of a rekindled Ottoman Empire are downright stupid too. Turkey is steadily going down the drain economically. None of their military gambits, be they in Syria or in Libya, have paid off. Erdogan talks of some sort of Turkic brotherhood of nations because he is fresh out of valid talking points. Nobody is buying it—not the Turks, not the Azeris or the Turkmenis, and certainly not the Tatars or any of the other Turkic tribes within Russia.
• Yes, Soros and his organizations have a lot to do with the fact that Armenia is now run by an idiot. That’s what they do: install idiots (or at least try), like Saakashvili, Guaidó, Zelensky, Tikhanovskaya, etc. Being an idiot, Pashinyan has fallen into the military trap prepared for him by the Russian Defense Ministry and Foreign Ministry, and only they can get him out of it.
• The Russians already control plenty of border posts in the region. That’s going to be the level of their involvement (other than diplomacy, i.e., “coercion to peace”, which they excel at).
• Soros and his people aren’t going to get any results out of this. But then who needs results when you can just burn money and entertain the world by attempting to install idiots as leaders of failing nations?
Thanks for the great article.
As a side note may I respectfully suggest that your are mistaken when you write:
“[Sidebar: most Armenians are not Orthodox Christians, but members of the Armenian Apostolic Church, which are miaphysites/monophysites. They are also not Slavs]”.
The Armenian Monophysite Church is one of the first five oriental Orthodox Churches alongside Ethiopia, Egypt, Syria and India.
Oct 20 14:20 (UTC+1)
Is Russia today website under attack? Cannot even ping the domain
[email protected] ~ $ ping -c 1 rt.com
PING rt.com (220.127.116.11) 56(84) bytes of data.
— rt.com ping statistics —
1 packets transmitted, 0 received, 100% packet loss, time 0ms
very strange for a high profile website to go down like that. What can this mean?