Saker Analyses and Interviews

Quick update on the Russian ultimatum

A few quick facts. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has officially given its support to Russia: “China believes that in the current environment, Russian proposals are in line with the basic norms of international relations, help to increase mutual trust between countries, reduce the risk of conflicts, and uphold global and regional strategic stability“ The Russian diesel-electric submarine Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii has just fired a 3M14 Kalibr from a submerged position in the

Russia’s ultimatum to the West (IMPORTANT UPDATE)

To understand what just happened, we need to look at two things: how Russia chose to communicate her demands and then the contents of the demands themselves.  However, before I do that, I want to recommend two other points of view, both of which are, in my opinion, very helpful: Andrei Martyanov’s https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2021/12/people-asked-i-respond-on-run.html Bernhard’s https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/12/russia-details-secruity-demands-to-us-and-nato.html I recommend you read them before we continue.  This being said, let’s look in more

Moderation issues: we have added a “red flag” warning

Dear friends, Thanks to the work of our webmaster Herb, we have now activated a new feature.  We call it a “red flag” warning.  Here is how this will work: If I see a comment which should not have been allowed (in my opinion) by the moderators (that is pretty rare) or if I see a comment which *technically* does not violate any rules, but which is either typical of

The Russian website GEOFOR interviews the Saker

PUTIN-BIDEN: THERE ARE THINGS THAT RUSSIA WILL NOT TOLERATE Translated from Russian into English by Lilia Shumkova source: https://geofor.ru/4769-putin-bajden-est-veshhi-kotorye-rossiya-terpet-ne-budet.html GEOFOR: Dear Mr. Raevsky, I recall how after the Geneva meeting with President Vladimir Putin, his American colleague President Joe Biden, in response to a question about the continuation of high-level contacts between our countries, said that we should wait until the end of the year, and after that time make

A few questions for my readers

Dear friends, Today I have a few questions for you: First, a long time ago I did Q&A with readers: you post questions in the comment section and I reply to them by recording an audio.  Question 1: would that be of interest to you?  Would you us want to do that again? (please don’t post questions quite yet, I will make a special post of that occasion if a

Assessing the outcome of the Biden Putin summmit

Let’s begin by stating the obvious: those who now claim that the Biden Putin summit did not produce anything tangible and was, at best, a waste of time are plainly wrong, mainly because they misunderstood what was really at stake (and what still remains at stake following the Summit). What is the evidence for this? The first and most obvious sign that something very real took place is the absolutely

Quick note from Andrei and open thread

Dear friends, I promised you an analysis by last week’s end, but I had to leave on an exhausting 3 day trip from which I returned safely but very tired and feeling spent. I will recuperate this afternoon and I will try to deliver my promised analysis of the Biden Putin summit tomorrow, Wednesday at the latest. Also, one important clarification for both authors and commentators: If you are a

Did a major shift finally happen between the USA and Russia?

The western media is writing with a uniformity and discipline which goosestepping SS on a parade could envy them: Joe Biden delivered a “stern warning” to Putin: don’t invade the Ukraine, or else… (see here, here or here). Since Russia has no intention, need, or even capability (as currently poised) to “invade” the Ukraine we can be certain that Biden will make his best impersonation “sheriff squinting eyes at OK

GEOFOR interviews The Saker: Will Kiev decide on an open armed conflict?

Note: in late November I was interviewed by the Russian website Geofor.  Here is the English language translation of this interview. GEOFOR: Mr. Raevsky, no sooner have the American warships left the Black Sea than the British went in there. Apparently, “unscheduled exercises” of NATO ships and Ukrainian watercraft are about to commence, again. Again, near the maritime borders of the Russian Federation. Moreover, a couple of American military boats were delivered to

Now comes the final countdown to either peace or war

So it is confirmed.  Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden will have what is announced as a “long” direct conversation (not face to face, but by a secure video link) this coming Tuesday.  Considering the extreme tensions taking place between the US/NATO/EU and Russia, this event will be, by definition, a watershed moment, irrespective of its outcome.  The two basic options are a) some kind of deal with be made b)

The upcoming Summit for Democracy as a time machine

Introduction: Biden’s “Summit for Democracy” scheduled for December 9-10, 2021, has posted its final list of invited countries. Let’s take a look: Albania Angola Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Australia Austria Bahamas Barbados Belgium Belize Botswana Brazil Bulgaria Cabo Verde Canada Chile Colombia Costa Rica Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Democratic Republic of Congo Denmark Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador Estonia European Union Fiji Finland France Georgia Germany Ghana Greece Grenada Guyana

Possible motives for a provocation against Russia

A lot of commentators have pointed out that the West really does not want a full scale war with Russia because this would, at best, be a suicidal proposition.  True. But there are some specific interests in the West which very much want to raise tensions as high as possible.  Today I will list just a few: (partial list) The US energy sector The energy sector is deeply concerned about

Why did Russia deploy so many forces against NATO?

So those evil vodka-soaked Russians are deploying their forces right near the Ukrainian border and are about to attack.  Right? Well, today I want to begin by sharing a few very basic maps with you.  First, here is a map of Russia with her military districts:   The most important thing to understand is that the city of Moscow is located in the middle of the Western Military District which,

Will the upcoming Putin-Biden summit defuse the situation?

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov has declared today that a Biden-Putin summit was being worked on and that it could take place before the end of the year.  If this true, then this is, by definition, very good news. What this news item also seems to suggest is that there is some very serious infighting taking place amongst the different clans/groups which rule over the US, NATO and the

Russian options in a world headed for war

The world is headed for war and has been headed that way for quite a while now.  Several times, just at the brink, the West decided to pull back, but each time it did that its ruling elites felt two things: first, the felt even more hatred for Russia for forcing them to back down and, second, they interpreted the fact that no shooting war happened (yet) as the evidence,

Lukashenko must go and Russia and Belarus must truly unite

If there is one thing which is obvious for all to see is that the EU and NATO hold one language against Belarus and another against Russia.  For example, the EU has just agreed to impose a 5th package of sanctions on Belarus, but their official statement does not mention Aeroflot, Russia, or Putin by a single word.  Of course, western politicians make all sorts of noises and grandstanding statements

Note about the current naval operations in the Black Sea

There is a lot of speculation about the current US/NATO operations in the Black Sea region.  I would like to offer the following bulletpoint comments about what I believe is going on. If we add up all the US+NATO forces involved in this operation, they fall far short of what would be needed for an attack on Russia.  Thus, in purely military terms, this is just a Kabuki theater, not

Is Soviet psychiatry still alive in 2021?

Following the furore created by my post yesterday, I want to point out something which is hilarious, scary and quite amazing, all at the same time. In the late Soviet Union one way to deal with dissidents/opponents of the Communist rule was to declare them insane, usually with what they called “slowly evolving/latent schizophrenia” (вялотекущая шизофрения).  Now, truth be told, quite a few of those dissidents did have weird personalities

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