by Pepe Escobar, first posted at the Asia Times, and reposted with the author’s permission
Luis Ignacio “Lula” da Silva may be the ultimate 21st century political comeback kid. At 77, fit and sharp, leading an alliance of 10 political parties, he has just been elected as Brazilian president for what will be a de facto third term after his first two from 2003 to 2010.
Lula even staged a comeback-inside-a-comeback, during the extremely fast and tight electronic vote counting, reaching 50.9% against 49.1% to the incumbent, extreme right President Jair Bolsonaro, representing a difference of only two million votes in a country of 215 million people. Lula’s back in office on January 1, 2023.
Lula’s first speech was somewhat anti-Lula; noted for his Garcia Marquez-style improvisations and folksy stream of consciousness, he read from a measured, carefully-prepared script.
Lula emphasized the defense of democracy; the fight against hunger; the drive for sustainable development with social inclusion; a “relentless fight against racism, prejudice and discrimination.”
He invited international cooperation to preserve the Amazon rainforest and will fight for fair global trade, instead of trade “that condemns our country to be an eternal exporter of raw materials.”
Lula, always an exceptional negotiator, managed to win against the formidable state machine apparatus unleashed by Bolsonaro, which saw the distribution of billions of dollars in vote-buying; an avalanche of fake news; outright intimidation and attempts of voter suppression against the poor by rabid Bolsonarists; and countless episodes of political violence.
Lula inherits a devastated nation that, much like the US, is completely polarized. From 2003 to 2010 – he rose to power, incidentally, only two months before America’s “shock and awe” against Iraq – it was quite a different story.
Lula managed to bring to the table economic prosperity, massive poverty alleviation and an array of social policies. In eight years, he created at least 15 million jobs.
Vicious political persecution ended up canceling him out of the 2018 presidential elections, paving the way for Bolsonaro – a project entertained by the hard-right Brazilian military since 2014.
Collusion between Brazil’s Public Ministry and dodgy “justice” stalwarts to persecute and condemn Lula on spurious charges forced him to spend 580 days in jail as a political prisoner as notorious as Julian Assange.
Lula ended up being declared not guilty in no less than 26 motions against him by a lawfare machine at the heart of the – deeply corrupt – Car Wash operation.
Lula’s Sisyphean task starts now. At least 33 million Brazilians are mired in hunger. Another 115 million are fighting “food insecurity.” No less than 79% of families are hostages to high levels of personal debt.
In contrast to the new “pink tide” rolling across Latin America – of which he is now the superstar – internally there’s no pink tide.
On the contrary, he will face a deeply hostile Congress and Senate and even Bolsonarist governors, including in the most powerful state of the federation, Sao Paulo, which concentrates more industrial firepower than many latitudes in the Global North.
Round up the usual suspects
The absolutely key vector is that the international financial system and the “Washington Consensus”, already controlling Bolsonaro’s agenda, have captured Lula’s administration even before it begins.
Lula’s vice-president is center-right Geraldo Alckmin, who can be catapulted to power the minute that deeply hostile Congress decides to fabricate some Lula impeachment scheme.
It’s not an accident that the neo-liberal The Economist magazine has already “warned” Lula to shift to the center: that is, his government must be run, in practice, by the usual financial suspects.
Much will depend on who Lula appoints as his finance minister. The top candidate is Henrique Meirelles, former CEO of FleetBoston, Brazil’s second largest external creditor after CitiGroup. Meirelles has expressed unrestricted support for Lula, for whom he previously worked as central bank chief.
Meirelles is likely to prescribe the exact same economic policies as Bolsonaro’s top economic enforcer, investment banker Paulo Guedes. That happens to be exactly what Meirelles himself created during the rapacious Temer administration, which came to power after the institutional coup against President Dilma Rousseff in 2016.
And now we get to the real juice. None other than US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland visited Brazil “unofficially” last April. She refused to meet Bolsonaro and praised the Brazilian electoral system (“You have one of the best in the hemisphere, in terms of reliability, in terms of transparency.” )
Afterward, Lula promised the EU a sort of “governance” of the Amazon and had to publicly condemn the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine. All that after he had already praised Biden, in 2021, as “a breath for democracy in the world.” The “reward” for the accumulated performance was a Time magazine cover.
All of the above may suggest an incoming, shady pseudo-Left government by the Workers Party – neoliberalism with a human face – infiltrated by all sorts of right-wing vectors, essentially serving the interests of Wall Street and the Democrat-controlled State Department.
Key planks: acquisition of key economic assets by the usual globalist suspects, and thus no room for Brazil to exercise real sovereignty.
Lula, of course, is too smart to be reduced to the role of mere hostage but his room for maneuver – internally – is extremely slim. Toxic Bolsonarism, now in the opposition, will continue to institutionally prosper dressed up as – fake – “anti-system”, especially in the Senate.
Bolsonaro is a self-described “myth” created and packaged by the military, coming out in the open about a month after Dilma’s election victory that propelled her to a second term in late 2014.
Bolsonaro himself and countless fanatic supporters flirted with Nazism; unabashedly praised known torturers during the Brazilian military dictatorship; and milked serious fascist leanings lurking in Brazilian society.
Bolsonarism is even more insidious because this is a military-concocted movement subservient to hardcore neoliberal globalist elites and comprised of evangelicals and agribusiness tycoons while posing as “anti-globalist.” No wonder the virus contaminated literally half of a dazed and confused nation.
Old China hand
Externally, Lula will play a whole different ball game.
Lula is one of the founders of the BRICS in 2006, which evolved out of the Russia-China dialogue. He’s immensely respected by the leaders of the Russia-China strategic partnership, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.
He has promised to serve only one term, or up to the end of 2026. But that’s exactly the key stretch in the eye of the volcano, straddling the decade Putin described in his Valdai speech as the most dangerous and important since World War II.
The drive towards a multipolar world, institutionally represented by a congregation of bodies from BRICS+ to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to the Eurasia Economic Union, will profit immensely to have Lula on board as arguably the natural leader of the Global South – with a track record to match.
Of course, his immediate foreign policy focus will be South America: he already announced that will be the destination of his first presidential visit, most probably Argentina, which is bound to join BRICS+.
Then he will visit Washington. He has to. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Informed opinion across the Global South is very much aware that it’s under Obama-Biden that the whole, complex operation to topple Dilma and expel Lula from politics was orchestrated.
Brazil will be a lame duck at the upcoming G20 in Bali in mid-November but in 2023 Lula will be back in business side-by-side with Putin and Xi. And that also applies to the next BRICS summit in South Africa, which will consolidate BRICS+, as an array of nations are itching to join, from Argentina and Saudi Arabia to Iran and Turkey.
And then there’s the Brazil-China nexus. Brasilia has been Beijing’s key trade partner in Latin America since 2009, absorbing roughly half of China’s investment in the region (and the most of any Latin American investment destination in 2021) and firmly placed as the fifth largest exporter of crude for the Chinese market, second for iron and first for soybeans.
The precedents tell the story. Right from the start, in 2003, Lula bet on a strategic partnership with China. He considered his first trip to Beijing in 2004 as his top foreign policy priority. The goodwill in Beijing is unshakeable: Lula is considered an old friend by China – and that political capital will open virtually every red door.
In practice, that will mean Lula investing his considerable global clout in strengthening BRICS+ (he already stated BRICS will be at the center of his foreign policy) and the inner workings of South-South geopolitical and geo-economic cooperation.
That may even include Lula formally signing up Brazil as a partner of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in a way that won’t antagonize the US. Lula, after all, is a master of this craft.
Finding a path in the eye of the volcano, internally and externally, will be the definitive political challenge for the comeback kid. Lula has been written off countless times, so underestimating him is a bad bet. Even before starting his third term, he has already performed a major feat: to emancipate a majority of Brazilians from mental slavery.
All eyes will be on what the Brazilian military – and its foreign handlers – really want. They have embarked on a very long-term project, control most levers in the power structure, and simply won’t give up. And so the odds may be stacked against an aging neo-Ulysses from northeast Brazil reaching his Ithaca ideal of a fair and sovereign land.
Lula = Pro Palestine
So, of course, they jailed him.
Bolsonaro = Pro Zionists
Pepe’s people may lose both Houses here
“They are sounding the alarm that this is going to get DANGEROUS ”
“Lula = Pro Palestine”
Maybe rhetorically, but is he pro-Palestine & anti-zionist in fact? Lula recounted in prison interviews (with P. Escobar amongst others) how, while he was in office, he had a very solid relationship with Barak Obama & his administration. Lula practically admits, quite shamelessly, as if he was doing something righteous, that Obama’s US administration actually used Lula as a go between with the Iranian government of then Ahmadinejad, on issues concerning Israeli-Paletinian peace initiatives. Lula says that after some time Ahmadenejad came to literally hate Lula, & hated him so much that at international conferences & meetings at the UN, Ahmadinejad would refuse to speak to him. Lula acknowledges that as far as Ahmadinejad was concerned, he (Lula) was a willing Israeli stooge & messenger boy. For those who haven’t watched this interview, I recommend it, & pay very close attention to when he is talking about his stance on Israel, because it is totally disingenuous. Lula pretended to be a friend to the Palestinians when the entire time, he was doing Israeli bidding, & the Iranians despised him for it.
Lula had two mostly successful terms, but that was when commodity prices were high. He may soon regret having come back to office, especially in a totally polarized nation where many will question the unquestionably bizarre electoral returns. The next four years will be very dark for the world, and that means Brazil as well. I predict that Bolsonaro will be back in 2026.
Pepe says “The above facts about Lula may suggest a pseudo Left government, neoliberalism with a human face”. It is 100% obvious that he is a pseudo Left neoliberal.
There was a gigantic lighted sign on Empire State Building tonight that said LULA…….Biden loves Lula.
I suggest to Pepe and everyone else to raise their standards. How many times can you get fooled?
If you want to find out all of the bad shit Lula did while in office, check out Aunt BB on twitter.
Biden does not love Lula. He hates Bolsonaro.
Bolsonaro was not friend of the democrats, but he would be friend of someone like McCain (if still alive).
So, Bolsonaro was not against neocons but against Biden specifically.
Lula is currently an incognita. But his open speech wanting Brasil not to be a eternal exporter of raw materials is a a good sign.
What neocons want is countries to serve as raw material exporters while depending of their tech.
Lula is putting the goal in the opposite
So he is not so bad
In the first few months of Lula’s regime, Lula loyalists argued that the orthodox neoliberal policies he implemented were tactical moves to stabilize the economy before turning to social reform. As Lula’s policies, appointment alliances and legislation all converged into a logically coherent neoliberal strategy, this explanation lost credibility.
Of all of his many crimes, I will only mention two: In 2003 and 2003 his government paid 40 billion dollars to IMF and other foreign creditors while lowering pensions.
While his Agra business puppeteers were making record profit, he froze wages saying that he was trying to save social security, which was total bullshit.
As usual there is US left [ which is really neo-liberalism when associated with the Democratic Party] but there is a world wide left which has nothing to do with what those in the US right associate the word “left”. A bunch of war mongering neo-libs/neo-cons that support the power elites and imperialism are not the “left” either historically or today.
The real Left has been dead in USA for a very long time
The fake left like AOC Et Al. is a sick perversion of the Left.
To me, a real Leftist realizes that capitalism can’t be reformed.
“a real Leftist realizes that capitalism can’t be reformed.”
I agree Anton, but it can be chained. As in China possibly ?
yes…real left/ liberals died on 11/22/1963…neolibs/neocons….can’t be reformed…Pepe should know better….
With all respect, I am quite sure nor the Global South nor Eurasian countries need “aunt” to school them about Lula. Brazil stance on nature and climate, starting from the 1988 constitution, is widely known and if NATO expect to use Lula to advance a “climate agenda” which will f*** up the Global South, it may come back to them.
Thank you AG…feel same way…frankly I am bit surprise Pepe get fooled this pseudo Left neoliberal.. lula
The facts suggest Lula was set free from jail and all 23 charges, all of a sudden, in exchange for acting as a Trojan horse for a downright real Right, not “pseudo Left”, government. Without any credible candidate of their own, they needed his votes, but not he himself, in order to get rid from Bolsonaro, who was not compliant enough, on condition that he would govern for them. As long as he obeys, everything will be fine. He has not the slightest chance of carrying out an independent Left policy, even if he wanted to, which we don´t really know. Lula 2.0 is history repeating itself as farce. I believe the ultimate goal is the “internationalization” of the Amazon, something the Brazilian military around Bolsonaro might not be very happy about – after all, it´s their own turf that is going to be estranged for nothing in return.
“in order to get rid from Bolsonaro, who was not compliant enough”
Bolsonaro played the globalist role to perfection: He privatized many companies (Electrobras, parts of Petrobras, etc), played the diplomatic role set by Washington (attacking regional administrations contrary to US interests, voting to set Claver Carone in the IDB, etc), protected the BBB block (Biblia-Buey-Bala: The elite conglomerate of agribusiness, security forces and evangelical churches initially financed by Washington), etc, etc.
But on the three most important issues, he showed dissent: on the Covid narrative, on the Russian intervention in Ukraine, and, most importantly, on the Amazon. These are “capital” crimes for the Empire.
Another superb article, thankyou Pepe.
Don’t trust Lula, there is strong evidence to suggest the Brazilian election was rigged – counting was stopped like what the US democrats did in 2020 – while Bolsonaro had a lead, and all of a sudden when counting resumed Lula was ahead. They just went and flipped it, did a switcheroo just like they did with Trump and Biden.
I hope I’m wrong, but it doesn’t look good. The way Biden endorsed Lula’s “victory” really leaves a sour taste in my mouth. The way the election was so similar to the US 2020 election is extremely suspicious.
And who exactly rigged it? Positivo, the company responsible for the new batch of the electronic voting system, have strong links with… the military. The same military who groomed Bolsonaro way before Lula was jailed by the three-letter-agency asset “judge” Sergio Moro.
The Global Bankster Cult rigged it. The same Bankster Cult whose climate agenda Lula will gladly follow because he is a Great Reset stooge.
Anton e someguy,se eu
concordar com vocês ,significa que as eleições de 2002,2006,2010 e 2014 tambem foram pois os votos totalizados durante a apuração entram por regiões.
a partir de 65% da totalização ,entram das regiões norte e nordeste que votam em peso no PT,partido de Lula e,então,caso esteja polarizada ,a decisão a favor da esquerda aparece
acompanho a apuração a partir de75% do total pois a realidade dos números aparecem
vejam o resultado das eleições de 2014 e comparem
“Don’t trust Lula, there is strong evidence”
What “evidence”? The ballotage showed the same pattern as the main election: Bolsonaro came on top first because the ballots from São Paulo and other Bolso-friendly districts were counted at the begining. Then, as Nordeste votes came to the count, Lula passed to the first position.
“while Bolsonaro had a lead, and all of a sudden when counting resumed Lula was ahead”
That’s not true at all. I followed closely the counting from 30% to 99% of the ballots and the thinning of the Bolsonaro lead was very clear and smooth.
So smooth it looked made-up.
“So smooth it looked made-up.”
“It looked” or “it was”?
The difference is very important because if we rely entirely on “looks” or “perceptions” we would disregard any fact that goes against our preconceptions.
For instance, if we are already convinced before seeing any proof (as of Sergio Moro), either going abrupt or smooth would just reinforce our previous beliefs.
It looked, it is impossible to say it was because the system is virtually unauditable.
Reading the RT comment section (the “Russian fanclub” in America), it was quite amusing to realize how these people utterly despise Lula. It’s not surprising, though. All they know about the “Zone B” is how it can relate with Trump, MAGA folks and “own the libs” bullshit. Somehow these people consider themselves “anti-imperialists” but wouldn’t recognize one even if thrown in their faces. They simply came to expect that such countries and politicians should somehow resonate to the Republican Party (?) stance on reality, and if they don’t it’s obviously due to “Soros” and whatever. It’s mind-warping dementia.
But indeed the anti-imperialist front has become quite convoluted since the US went full woke. In the next few years these people I cited will have to realize not only how Lula himself and Brazilian diplomacy were key players in the anti-imperialist effort taking place in Eurasia, but how their presence used to foster a sound, sane organizing principle on anti-imperialism, which honestly got quite lost in the last few years (eg. Saudi Arabia in BRICS and the way discussion got monopolized over aspects about Western cultural norms). These same people also will be very confused when “woke” and “green” Lula gets treated with reverence in Eurasia and the Global South. Many people can’t wrap their heads around the fact that large countries like Brazil have their own reality organizing principles which may not align with the Anglo worldview.
The Biden admin has been bragging about how they helped Lula. Its amazing how people who clearly recognize the danger of the Globalists and Soros lead color revolutions can then turn around and support a candidate supported by those same people.
Ask yourself, even if Lula is so great, why would the Biden regime support him?
The U.S. is not FULL WOKE as you’ll see in a week when these Leftists/Globalists are thrown out in the midterms.
If Trump and MAGA are so foolish or lead by Shadow Neo-Cons, why is the entire American establishment against them? Why did Bush and the whole gambit of Neo-Cons like Liz Cheney come out against him? Persecuting him? Why did Putin put the ball in Trumps court?
“Progressive” NATO leaders have a weird habit of leeching on the prestige of actual leftist leaders in Zone B. Obama did just like Biden and tried to leech on both Workers Party presidents the most he could, while the US spied on Petrobras, boycotted Brazilian initiatives abroad and helped create the so called “Carwash” operation which ended up jailing Lula. This is how they operate, embrace and extinguish. They’re like envious vampires.
The unanimous demonization campaign against Bolsonaro in the US media (which have a lot to do with Trump, indeed, but also about the Amazon) led, in the absence of another option, to “endorse” Lula. However that doesn’t tell us anything about what is happening except one fact, which anyone who was into politics in the 00s can attest:
– Brazil, as all countries, use its “talents” to play games aimed abroad. Like in the 00s, if Lula gets a free pass by advocating stuff NATO media cares a lot about, he can shield himself from being demonized when doing actual anti-hegemonic geopolitics. Just think about Mandela. There are infinite variations on how this can happen, left or right, but the goal is to avoid the creation of the kind of consensus NATO need to sanction, embargo or utterly demonize a country.
Now, I don’t know enough about the US to answer you, but maybe all these events people associate to something imminent happening to America could very well mean internecine conflicts or even, as Dmitry Orlov would point out, a sign of the US desintegrating into smaller parts, like the USSR.
Soros’ people in Brazil are lyrical about Lula´s victory…
Very well said Capybara.
When it comes to polarization it’s all hyperreality and historical amnesia.
I am very tired of identity politics, most people associate that with say gay and trans rights etc but it’s just as bad the other way around, anti trans anti gay crowd who magically woke up and became ‘anti imperialist’, after perhaps decades in their own lives of ignoring or cheering on every US imperial war or coup as a matter of blind belonging to party x or y- these artificially produced ‘positions’ are frequently superficial but tend to be intensely emotional – people can’t see the degree that they effortlessly reinforce the status quo by making complex issues into messed up reductive binaries, aligned in ‘loyalty camps’, and us vs. them.
There are a lot of people also walking around that believe decades of neo liberal policy is marxism for instance. Bizarre configurations are emerging now, as the process goes into overdrive. There is first a deliberate loosening of signifers from their original meaning or context and then their arbitrary association with whatever, reinforced by earlier emotionally charged propaganda campaigns. Reptile brain kicks in, overriding any ability to reason or structure thought. And voila a mob of x vs. y for stupid, often frankly absurd, reasons.
US shoving their culture wars down everyones throats, it’s not innocent, it’s not a biproduct it’s ‘the’ mechanism of popular ontrol right now in the West and wherever it’s influence reaches.
There’s too few of you, Gabe!
In layman’s terms, baffle them with bullshit, wrapped in a David Copperfield hologram.
The illusion of choice, Tweedle dee or dumb. Biden the walking-dead tailor’s (deep state) dummy or Trumplethinskin who can turn gold into copper by handing over the keys to the Treasury to Goldman fricking Sachs.
An intricate web of lies, damned lies and we’re all just pathetic statistics.
I sure would not want the creepy looking Henrique Meirelles anywhere nearby. Lula has spirit and vision and I wish him well. May he run circles around his enemies.
Also, three observations:
– Pepe is spot on to address China-Brazil relations in particular. It’s considered a strategic partnership since the 90s and will continue to be regardless of what happen to BRICS.
– BRICS, however, risk becoming demonized as a “axis of evil” by the Western propaganda machine. All countries were demonized, left or right, by NATO countries. Problems in Russia/India/China over territorial disputes with smaller neighbors and alikes became critical. Russia’s pandering to White Nationalists abroad to exert soft power didn’t went without collateral effects. Finally, accepting countries like Saudi Arabia would be the cherry on the top. Brazil should try to use it’s prestige (what’s left of it) to influence BRICS back to it’s original intent, which is to create a network of friendly anti-Hegemon countries which are not imperialistic themselves. If this is not possible, it should get out asap.
– Lula won’t have the ease to govern like he did in his second term (2007-2010), but neither it will be a war. The single fact he got another term in such a dramatic way, instead of a sad and melancholical end under house arrest, pretty much means that he does have the consent of both the military and the elites to do so. They, themselves, are not as aligned to NATO as some people are led to believe and also need someone to restore normality after the “Reaganesque” Bolsonaro gets discarded after doing their wishes.
What are you saying, you don’t want BRICS to become just another Alphabet Agency, lol?
There may be trouble (hiccups) ahead
But while there’s moonlight
And music, and love and bromance
Let’s face the music (US) and dance. . .
BRICS + is half the population owning 70% of gas-oil reserves, metal-mineral-fertiliser-rare earths-specialised gas resources and will blossom regardless of any American-Zionist skulduggery.
Lula used to sign off on his speeches “see you in 2020” clear reference to UN agenda 2020. He had it on his posters as well. Years since i seen them. Im dubious any political side has anything but a few differences in domestic issues. On national global issues all lockstep .
It’s really good news to see Lula’s come back. Things have changed a lot since last time he was in charge. At that time Neoliberalism was at its apex but even then Lula accomplished many achievements, leading to CIA saying enough is enough. This time however he’s gained more experience. The only thing is that one would hope there could be much more open rallies – on weekly basis, just like the Friday Prayer gatherings in Iran which have been going on since the 1979 Revolution – that would show popular support for the new administration. This way, Uncle Sam and its stooges in Brazil must think twice before staging another regime change. So poor-indebted Brazilians might as well throw less night parties, carnivals, Caipirinha …and instead support the new administration more steadfastly.
The Ukrainian CCD had President Lula de Silva on its blacklist 17 July 2022, since removed :
Current blacklist :
Speakers promoting narratives consonant with Russian propaganda
From Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD).
Acting head of CCD, Shapovalov, charged that people who deliberately spread disinformation are “information terrorists,” subject to be tried as “war criminals.”
This is not the same as the Ukraine Peacemaker Myrotvorets, but see Shapovalov’s statement.
Elon Musk was briefly on the one of these TWO lists recently. US taxpayers fund the CCD.
Unfortunately I didn’t like this article.
I respect everyone’s opinion but in my opinion you don’t describe what LULA really is nor its PT political party which actually only exists because LULA still participates in the political scene.
Lula is a chameleon, amoral and a centralizing leader. He is much more authoritarian and dictator than any other Brazilian politician or military man can be.
I will not defend Bolsonaro or minimize his flaws and mistakes because it is unnecessary in comparison with LULA.
LULA was convicted in all judicial instances in Brazil. Many of his collaborators acknowledged their involvement in corruption, pleaded guilty and returned billions of US$. That’s right BILLIONS of dollars.
LULA can only return to the political scene because the supreme court of Brazil, where 9 judges were appointed by LULA himself, after all the judgments in all instances and many years after the beginning of the process determined that the 1st analysis of the process it should not have been made by a judge from CURITIBA, a city in the south of the country, but by a judge from Brasilia, capital of Brazil. None of the evidence or arguments for the conviction were denied, the supreme court simply ruled that the case should begin again.
Apart from all the corruption scandals, probably the biggest in the world, many people link LULA+PT to several murders in Brazil for political reasons.
There is no possibility for the country to progress in the medium and long term based on a lie of this one and on a leader without character like LULA. Half of Brazilians do not agree with this; Bolsonaro, had 49.2% of the votes.
A multipolar and fair world would have a much better chance with another government in Brazil, any other, than with this abject being that is LULA
Lula Defense Exposed DOJ/FBI Control over Brazil’s ‘Lava Jato,’ ´the exact same machine that went after Trump, and former President Dilma Rousseff.
I am not an expert in Brazilian politics, but can tell that definitely you are misjudging Lula. For sure the author has much better knowledge about this subject than many of us here. For a political leader managing affairs in such a complex, vastly joined business relations with the west and multitude of other factors which make the political scene in Brazil resemble the real wildlife in the Amazons based on the law of the survival of the fittest, it’s easy to say how everything should be rather than what can be done.
Excuse me but I certainly know Brazilian politics much better than the author.
I am a Brazilian and have known Lula closely since the founding of the PT in the 1980s.
I personally know many of Lula’s comrades from that time who abandoned the PT project and Lula when they realized what a farce it is.
Quando das greves dos metarlugicos da região do ABC, cidades próximas a São Paulo, amigos muito próximos precenciaram as negociações de LULA e a cupula do governo militar da época. Ficou muito evidente desde esta época o carater do Lula.
Não concordo com muitas politicas do Bolsonaro, muitas de suas ações e comportamentos mas ele não é amoral e bandido como o Lula. O governo do Lula será um retrocesso para o pais mas ele certamente terá um projeto de relações publico muito bom e cuidadoso.
A quem interessar é só examinar a herança que Lula deixou para sua sucessora completamente incopentente Dilma Roussef que quebrou o pais.
Google translate from mod:
When the Metarlugic strikes of the ABC region, cities near Sao Paulo, friends very close preceded Lula’s negotiations and the coupula of the military government of the time. It has been very evident since this time Lula’s character.
I do not agree with many Bolsonaro policies, many of his actions and behaviors but he is not amoral and bandit like Lula. Lula’s government will be a setback for the country but he will surely have a very good and careful public relations project.
To whom to interest is just to examine the inheritance that Lula left to his successor completely incomprehensible Dilma Roussef who broke the country.
The author is Brazilian and I am sure that he knows how the situation is like in Brazil. I am just expressing my own personal opinion of someone who is not Brazilian. But can say that during the first Lula administration major events happened on the world stage including the BRICS, that would have been impossible without Lula and Hugo Chavez. Before that Latin/South America were just America’s playground. In short, he is a leader that follows his country’s best interests and very often this simple desire is what puts such leaders at odds with Washington and Zinonist-led western banking system. No wonder they went after him. All the rest about court proceedings, who said what or who took what is just soap opera.
“he is not amoral and bandit like Lula”
He and his family supported the death squads that killed many pro-PT politicians and leaders, such as Marielle Franco. The links between the main suspect of her murder and Bolsonaro’s wife were proved. How does it fit with the “not amoral and bandit”?
You need to follow the US DoJ and FBI – interference is their forte, and not just in Brazil. Lula know this as did Dilma, and Kirchner in Argentina.
“LULA was convicted in all judicial instances in Brazil.”
We all saw the illegal prosecution of Lula. The chats between Moro and Dellagnol were a clear breach of legal judiciary procedures.
Bolsonaro’s silence is being played by the BBC.
Will he concede?
Bolsonaro did order the transition process to start, while not explicitly conceding. Very similar to Trump who set a transition in motion, while having serious doubts.
Yet, as everyone knows Biden got the most votes in any election, evah!
Pepe is fantastic as a writer and as a journalist and I understand that his affections harm him.
At first, Lula had to sweep Bolsonaro electorally in the first electoral round and it was not like that. So they carried out the perfect coup d’état: STEAL THE VOTES from Bolsonaro and give them to Lula, it has been an exquisite and very democratic coup, who is going to deny it? Lula, as a “man of progress”, is going to implement in Brazil all the western aberrations in Brazil: Abortion, Homosexualism (LGTBI+) Pederasty, yes, as you read it, Euthanasia, Transhumanism and of course all the laws of hate that you can imagine and anti-Christian organizations to imprison all Christians who proclaim the word of the Lord against these abominations, and it will not matter if you are Catholic or Evangelical, they will break your bones anyway.
“At first, Lula had to sweep Bolsonaro electorally in the first electoral round and it was not like that. So they carried out the perfect coup d’état: STEAL THE VOTES from Bolsonaro and give them to Lula”
What is the evidence to support your claim? The only incidents that were reported related to hindering Lula sympathizers from voting.
“Lula, as a “man of progress”, is going to implement in Brazil all the western aberrations in Brazil”
That’s a fantasy that doesn’t resist a basic analysis. The PT block in the Congresso barely goes over 15% of the seats, the remaining being a fierce opposition mainly from the BBB block. Without new laws enacted, and without the strongly conservative evangelical block inside the BBB, no “aberrations” can be implemented.
A perfect coup is “like lightning that is not seen and thunder that is not heard.” Curzio Malaparte. Techniques of a Coup d’état. 1931. Also on Amazon
Andrés ¿tú crees que somos tan pendejos, demuestra la contraria tú?
“HAPPENING NOW: Things are developing quickly in Brazil, and not in a good way after the election that was STOLEN from Bolsonaro.”
Time and additional data will show that the election in Brazil was in fact stolen and that Lula is not the peoples elected president, but Bolsonaro.
You cannot have free and fair elections (I.e., in Donetsk and Luhansk regions et al.) and then ignore what has just gone on in Brazil.
I want to point out 2 distorted traits that many participants here are applying related to Latin America in general and Brazil in particular:
1) Second-turn (Ballotage) elections usually come very close in Latin America. Remember the last 3 or 4 Peruvian elections, when Keiko Fujimori was out for a few decimals (kind of 50.1 vs 49.9 against Castillo). Remember also the second turn in Brasil in 2014 when Dilma barely came over Neves. Not to mention Macri and Scioli in Argentina, where the former got 51% vs 49% of the latter.
These societies are deeply divided. The fact that elections results come so narrow is a sign of this trait, not a necessary electoral fraud.
2) Most of the participants in this space (including myself) don’t have a particular appreciation or simpathy for the deep state or the Dems currently running the globalist agenda. However, the flawed and criminal policies of many Western administrations doesn’t imply that ALL endorsements by Biden or Zelenski necessarily means something bad for the rest of the World.
Such a binary positioning in politics is childish and immature. There are many traits and “axes” of analysis that should be considered.
Electoral fraud is a sport in Ibero-America… Are you really going to believe that the police guard the bags full of votes without “getting distracted”? Did the polls fail with Lula? She did not go over Bolsonaro with millions of votes as the mass maffia pollsters predicted. You’re talking about Argentina. Ché tell me you really believe it?
Electoral fraud is a sport in the whole planet nowadays.
I remember reading an article years ago where the author said that in most of the elections that had taken place in the US since 1776, fraud is/was the norm rather than the exception.
“She did not go over Bolsonaro with millions of votes as the mass maffia pollsters predicted.”
That’s precisely a proof that the elections were not rigged: The results didn’t fit an imaginary script. They just happened as in many other instances.
In fact, if there were incidents, they happened in the Nordeste region, where the motorized federal police stopped buses with people going to vote in regions where Lula got massive support.
Lula is saving Brazil from becoming an autocracy militia of jesus…
I can explain: they got senate, they got federal chamber deputies with that disgusting secret budget, they put in our biggest state governor (São Paulo) a man from another state (Rio de Janeiro) based on militia groups. They have plenty of money from Universal church (and others), tv channels, right wing millionaries supporting this transition. Next mandate they could put 2 new men of theirs in STF. They have money, they have guns, with brainwashed federal/state policy, nearly 70% following their nonsenses. And of course common people, with their CACS (common minions)
They put billions from state money (criminally using the machine) and private money in their campaign for buying everything and tons of fake news. But still, now he is not there, the head of the snake lost in the very ending.
Figure it out.
Bolsonaro is far from the ideal solution but he has effectively tried to save the country from the much worse option that is the same implemented in several other countries in South America.
Lula is a founding member of FORO DE SÂO PAULO and has made Brazil the financier of failed policies in all other countries.
Bolsonaro may be a bad solution. Lula is a guarantee that in the medium term Brazil will be a disaster like all these other countries (Venezuela, Argentina, etc.)
…”that in the medium term Brazil will be a disaster like all these other countries (Venezuela, Argentina, etc.)”
Leaving your opinions about these other countries aside. Do not be unpolite to your neighbours and try to avoid repeating what you hear/read in Western MSM. The enemies of the neighbourhood are outside Latin America, not inside (except for the comprador elites which are accomplices) and in case you still do not know it yet, Bolsonaro is not your friend, it is your enemy.
You are so wrong.
Bolsonaro does have great support among evangelicals and more radical right-wing groups, but not only these. Most of the Brazilian agribusiness, which is a very important part for Brazil and for the world, supports Bolsonaro at this moment likewise other groups from brazilian society. He got 58 million votes; All are certainly conservative but far from all of the extreme right.
The governor of Minas Gerais (2nd most important state in the federation after São Paulo), Zema, also supports Bolsonaro at this moment against the Lula/PT project.
The governor-elect of São Paulo, Tarcisio, is a conservative, he was Bolsonaro’s minister, he likes and respects his former “boss” but he is far from being a right-wing radical and he is not even in the same party as Bolsonaro. As for the fact that he was not born in São Paulo, this is even a merit; This state, in which I live, is the locomotive of the country and it only achieves this because it has always had the contribution of “foreigners” (Italians, Spaniards, Japanese, Lebanese, Syrians, people from all regions of Brazil).
If you think that the common people are right now trying to force a coup here, blocking roads and wherever… you are totally wrong. Common people a peasants, look at the businessmen who put that much money in Bolsonaro’s ideology and may loose a lot now. They are trying to help the current president, that of course begs for it, since most probabilly will be in jail next year.
Who are you referring to?
Roberto Setubal, leader of the families that control Banco Itau, the largest private bank in the country and who openly declared his support for Lula?
Fernão Bracher and his other 650 guests for a dinner last week at his house, all of whom are owners or presidents of the largest business groups in the country?
The entire Brazilian society is divided in half, whether they are poor or rich, with little or a lot of schooling, religious or not
Pepe is right on target regarding the thin space of manoeuver for Lula. The scenario he has to face is very similat to that of Fernandez in Argentina: Over indebted public sector, social needs that should be urgently addressed (poverty and famine), a toxic extreme-right sector congregated around the Bolsonaro clan and which previously was rather disgrregated, a legislative body that will block many progressive changes, etc.
As many other Latin American countris, there will be a gridlock between political blocks that will impact on Lula’s image as problems are not solved and the government bears most of the responsibility for the socioeconomic situation: Boric, Castillo, Fernandez, etc, suffer the same phenomenon.
We should keep an eye on how the reconfiguration of the World power affects the Latin American governments, since changes won’t be easily provoked by internal factors but externals.
1. Bolsonaro has still not conceded or made a statement
2. Brazil is in chaos right now. Bolsonaro supporting truckers are blocking interchanges around the country.
3. Biden and the usual suspects congratulated Lula immediately
4. Lula won by less than one percent, and only due to outsize majority win in one state, he lost all the others.
5. The Brazilian Supreme Court is corrupt, supports Lula, and tipped the election to him with multiple rulings.
6. Bolsonaro has summoned the Supreme Court to his home for something, but they are refusing to appear until he formally concedes.
7. Brazilian law includes a Section 142 which allows the military to intervene in a questionable election, it just isn’t specific as to how.
In short, the ‘woman of size’ hath not yet vocalized in Brazil.
@Bob and Andres
Oh what a tangled web they weave.
This is looking more and more like the global Western norm of politics feigning the appearance of left/right, liberal/conservative choices when they are really nothing of the sort.
If not I can live in hope that Lula can press home and improve his country’s future due to his excellent standing with BRIICS+++ leaders and countries.
If Lula is nobbled, or he has not been upfront with his real agenda, then this will be just another case of another big win to the private bankster industry and a massive loss to Mainstreet.
If Meirelles, the archetypical thieving bankster in both appearance and curriculum vitae, is appointed as Finance Minister then Brazil is headed to even more mayhem.
Perhaps Pepe summarised it best with this comment in his excellent recent “Comeback Kid” article…
“The absolutely key vector is that the international financial system and the “Washington Consensus”, already controlling Bolsonaro’s agenda, have captured Lula’s administration even before it begins.”
Cheers from Downunder
“If Meirelles, the archetypical thieving bankster in both appearance and curriculum vitae, is appointed as Finance Minister then Brazil is headed to even more mayhem.”
That’s probably what would happen. Lula is, after all, not a revolutionary but a reformist because he cannot impose any deep structural changes in Brasil.
During his tenure and Dilma’s, he worked to improve the living standards of his constituents within the super-structural frame of the Brazilian society (like implementing Bolsa Familia and not forced nationalizations). He never had the support to push disruptive legislation in a deeply fragmented and conservative legislative body. Also, given the federalist trait of Brazilian politics and power, he always wanted to please the Paulista elites (FIESP, etc) and never dared to face the global financial powers as Cristina Kirchner or Chávez did. Keeping the “investment grade” tag was of uttermost importance both for him and for Bolsonaro.
But even within that limited framework, he help raise tens of millions of people from poverty and gained respect as a global player. That’s respectable.
5 million invalid votes. Unless that can be explained no one is going to accept the outcome.
Is it just me being critical or does that photo of Henrique Meirelles capture the soul of the devil?
One of those topics, like Yugoslavia, Rwanda, (and many others), Whereas a Yanker, I struggle to get a handle on who the good guys are. Maybe overly self-depreciating title but American seems to really anger the other less shameful Americans.
Is this why Putin holds appeal, he lacks a duplicitous nature?
Reading through this article a little voice in my head kept chanting, divide and conquer. So it is with a heavy heart I conclude, it does not matter which side you pick the truly evil want us all to go away, the sooner the better. Just take a bitter adversary with you like a good little slave.
Asia Times has no comments, I avoided Unz’s conservative filth and commented here on Saker, Pepe. Excellent text. In line with the excellent analysis of Quantum Bird also here on Saker. Which Pepe highlighted in the telegram. And as he says, Brazil manages to spend 10 years discussing the Moro Triplex but does not discuss Petrobras and Electrobraz, fundamental instruments of sovereignty. Brazil went back more than a decade with the bitch of the judicialization of politics. And as Pepe says and very well with another American coup! Main reason, LULA definitively removed all of South America from the yankees’ grasp. Including Venezuelan Oil and completely destroying the Monroe Doctrine in the 21st Century! And it was the bill that landed him in prison thinking he was politically killed! For 50 years I had been eliminating even physically as many in Latin America!
Today with a shitty Congress and let’s see if not with a shitty LULA Government. Full of concessions due to a very large alliance! It looked like British Leyland which also killed the UK car industry. He should start right now by running with Alkmin on behalf of Dilma. It will only do one mandate! In short, I don’t know how he’s going to get around so much shit, but I still trust him. For me today in the world, the only politician on the level of Xi and Putin. And as Pepe never tires of repeating, founder of the BRICS. Which led Brazil to the 5 largest economies in the world, a place that is yours in its own right! Today and after the crash of 2008 unfortunately, out of the top 10 and it won’t be easy to get back up! As for Pepe, for me the most fundamental will also be his contribution to the multipolar NWO. Very sorry for Brazil. Bozo is not worth half the votes he had. What is screwing the whole world up today are the votes against. In the populisms and nationalisms that have already taken the world to where it took them in the 1930s! With the left in a hole so big you can’t even see it anymore. Just look at your positioning almost all over the world in this Ukraine conflict! Before the 24th of February, he still said that if he went to Mexico… Then he went into shock! Abraço Pepe!