[This column was written for the Unz Review]
Trump pulled the trigger, but instead of a “bang!” what the world heard was a demure “click”. Considering that we are talking about playing a most dangerous game of potentially nuclear
Russian AngloZionist roulette, the “click” is very good news indeed. But, to use the words of Nikki Haley, the US “gun” is still “locked and loaded”.
There are a number of versions out there about what really happened, but I think that the most likely explanation for that “click” is a combination of two events:
- The US did go out of its way to avoid even giving the appearance of attacking the Russian or Iranian forces in Syria. With these kinds of rules of engagement, the target list and flight trajectory of the US missiles was easy to predict for the Syrian air defenses.
- The Syrian air defenses, now integrated with the Russian C4ISR networks and probably upgraded, performed way better than most people had expected.
I honestly don’t know who in the US should get the credit for doing the right thing, but that person(s) deserves our collective gratitude. Rumors say that Mattis was the man, others point to Dunford and some even to Trump himself (I doubt that). Again, I don’t know who did it, but this action deserves a standing ovation. The fact that this (predictably) dismal performance was then covered up with silly statements about a “perfect strike” and “all missiles hit their target” is standard operating procedure, a basic exercise in face-saving and an attempt to appease the always bloodthirsty Neocons. The most important lesson from this latest development is that there are still some people in key positions in the US who did what had to be done to avoid a catastrophic escalation in Syria. The question now is how long can these “sane forces” (for lack of a better identifier) continue to resist the “crazies”?
Needless to say, the Israel Lobby and the Neocons are absolutely furious. And just to add insult to injury, the Russians are now saying that they will provide the Syrians with S-300 batteries (which would be able to track and engage Israeli aircraft practically from their take-off). I would argue that the Israelis did that one to themselves with their own missile strikes at the worst possible time, but the fact this is self-inflicted does not make it less painful for the Israelis.
But the biggest problem is that this outcome, while very positive by itself, really solves nothing. The key unresolved issues are
- Does anybody, especially the UNSC or/and Russia get to “veto” the AngloZionist Hegemony’s actions anywhere on the planet? The official US position is a categorical “no!”. The outcome in Syria, however, does strongly suggest a “yes”.
- Is the US willing to come to terms with the fact that the Hegemony has failed to overthrow the Syrian government and that the Syrians have won the war? The official US position on this has flip-flopped a number of times, but I would argue that the “no” camp is much stronger than the “yes” camp. The current US posture in Syria strongly suggests that the USA is not quite ready yet to “declare victory and leave”.
- Have the Skripal and Douma false flag chemical (pseudo-) attacks been sufficient to re-subordinate the post-Brexit EU to the Anglosphere and have the AngloZionists been successful in forging a united front for a “Crusade against Russia”? The majority of EU governments have been willing to endorse any nonsense or violation of international law under the pretext of “solidarity”, but there are still quite a few cracks in this apparent unity.
At this moment the situation is extremely fluid and there are too many potential variables which can determine the next developments in order to make a prediction better than a wild guess. The only thing which is certain that this confrontation between the AngloZionist Hegemony and Russia is far from over, both in Syria and elsewhere (the Ukraine).
Fundamentally, our entire planet has to make a choice between two mutually exclusive world orders.
|AngloZionist Hegemony||Multipolar world|
|Civilizational model||Single “western”||Diverse|
|International Relations||Regulated by the Hegemon||Regulated by International Law|
|Social and Cultural model||Postmodernist secularism||Traditional and local|
Right now the “collective West” is engaged in a truly titanic effort to preserve the Hegemony, but the writing is very much on the wall, hence the kind of silly histrionics we now see from the likes of Trump, May and Macron. In this context, the war in Syria is primarily a war over the right of the USA to do whatever the hell it wants irrespective of international law, facts, logic or even common sense. Nikki Haley’s message to the world has been beautifully simple, consistent and blunt: “we are the Hegemon, we are above everything and everybody, above you and above any of your laws or principles. We are even above facts or logic. Bow down and worship us or else!“.
The problem for the AngloZionists is that while most western leaders have agreed to these terms (this is what “solidarity” means nowadays), the rest of the planet is quietly but actively seeking ways to explore other options and even some relatively weak and/or small countries (Bolivia for example) are still willing to openly reject this AngloZionist diktat. As for Russia and China, they are already de-facto creating a new, alternative, multi-polar world order where the Anglosphere will be limited to be only “one amongst many” and not the kind of planetary master-race its leaders fancy themselves to be.
It is interesting that the main tactic chosen by the “collective West” to respond to these challenges has been to basically go into deep denial and worry about perceptions much more than about facts on the ground. Hence the “perfect strike”. Carl Rove put it best when he said “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do”.
In the 1990s there used to be a popular, but unattributed, quote which said “you have not won until CNN says that you won”. Today, we are witnessing something similar, just reversed: you have not lost until CNN says that you lost. I felt an eerie sense of déjà vu when Trump tweeted “mission accomplished” repeating the exact same words Dubya spoke on his aircraft carrier just before all hell truly broke loose in Iraq (I can imagine how the folks at CENTCOM, who are reportedly really upset, must have cringed when they heard this!). I hope that Marx was right when he said that “History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce”. The long-suffering Middle-East has surely gone through enough tragedies, but I am afraid that what we have just witnessed with the latest US strike in Syria was the farce, and that a very real tragedy still might be in the making.
The Neocons can roughly be separated into two types: first, those stupid enough to believe that the latest strikes were, indeed, a magnificent success, and those who are just smart enough to realize that it was a pathetic flop. The first type will be emboldened by the sense of total impunity (and the US did, in fact, get away with this grievous violation of all the norms of civilized behavior and international law) while the second type will continue to demand a much stronger attack. Combine the two and you have a perfect recipe for a very dangerous situation.
And now here is the really bad news: the US ground forces (Army) are pretty much useless, while the US Navy and Air Force are in big, big trouble: the USN surface fleet is now quasi obsolete due to the Russian Kinzhal missile, while the USAF doesn’t seem to be able to operate in an environment with modern Russian surface to air missiles. None of them appear to be able to get anything done other than wasting an immense amount of money and killing a lot of people, mostly civilians. Just like their Israeli and Saudi allies, the US armed forces are just not capable of taking on any meaningful enemy capable of defending itself. There is only one segment of the US armed forces which is still fully capable of accomplishing its mission: the US nuclear triad. Hence all the attempts by US force planners and strategists to find a doctrine not only for the use of nuclear forces as a deterrent, but to re-conceptualize them as a war-fighting capability (missile defense, micro-nukes, etc.). Think of it this way: the only credible (real world) means of aggression left to the Empire are nuclear weapons. Many (most?) people don’t realize that (yet), but with each failed conventional attack this reality will become harder and harder to hide.
Will the people who this time around succeeded in foiling the Neocon plans for a real, hard, strike on Syria, and possibly even on the Russian task force in Syria, succeed the next time? I don’t know. But I can’t ignore the fact that each “click” brings us one step closer to the “bang”. And that suggests to me that the only real solution to this extremely dangerous situation is to find a way to remove the finger pressing on the trigger or, better, take away the gun from the nutcase threatening us all with it.
What makes the US believe that their 1980s era nukes will get through any more successfully than their nice new smart bombs – I don’t think so. On the Other hand, it seems evident that Russia can strike at will.
We are historically fortunate that with Putin there appears to be a leader of vision and morality who can see the danger of this – witness his 1st March speech. My real worry is that whoever follows after Putin will realise that Russia can strike with impunity, and after even further US provocation and insults decides enough is enough.
The measure of Putin will be how he grooms his successor.
Russia has some ABM systems around Moscow (A-135, A-235) but they can’t intercept everything, as for other cities, none. The S-500 could intercept some, not all, but in wont be ready before 2020.
They are more realist than the Americans and admit that nothing could protect them against a massive strike
Maybe something gets through, but Russia will survive.The US will not. That is the calculation in 2018.
As you say, by 2020 the scales tip further.
No way the US can win this.
No one survives. Least not in a world you want to try and live in.
At least somebody gets it. Thank you.
The smoke and dust from even a few megaton hydrogen bomb explosions lowers the temperatures such that the growing seasons are all disrupted. EMP effects take out most civilian electronics (anything not especially designed to survive that). Most of the world, certainly the west, lives on just-in-time transportation networks. And these days, most vehicles rely on electronics. Depending on where the nukes go off, a lot of the existing food crops in the fields become contaminated. In the US, the ICBM silos are of course a key target, and they are upwind of the ‘bread basket’ fields of the midwest. Thus, even if the exchange takes place in the season where there is one last growing season in the fields, nobody would want to eat it. Or if the war was in the spring, the following summer is too cold and too cloudy (plus radioactive fallout) so little is harvested. Likely, society breaks down as people begin to go hungry and the modern opiate of the masses (entertainment and internet) is gone.
Dr. Strangelove poked fun at the people who think a nuclear war is “winnable.” It still is not. No matter how much posturing about how one side or the other will kick hiney goes on, its still foolish.
Tambora and Krakatau. Cubic miles of earth’s matter dispersed into the atmosphere to high altitude. Many more megatons than our nuclear weapons. Earth will survive. The utterly spoiled JIT West will not, slavaboho!
You say : “No way the US can win this.”
But I will say:
That’s completely irrelevant because …. they think they can – I’d go so far to say – they know they can. And it’s that “know” where the problem lies.
If the US hegemon fails – the US itself fails – it likely breaks apart and, what Putin said, “Of what use to us is a world without Russia” holds true for America too. If nuclear war is the only way they can preserve their hegemony then it will be nuclear war. Besides, they know they can’t lose and they know all this nuclear winter fallout stuff is a load of overblown bunkum. (And it’s just too bad when they find out afterwards what they knew was wrong because what’s done is done – and they won’t be around to care anyway.)
Either Russia backs down or the world goes to nuclear war.
There is no other option because The Hegemon has no other option.
“There is no other option because The Hegemon has no other option.”
Beautifully sumarized, so Armageddon will happen, and there will be no “duck and cover”.
“Either Russia backs down or the world goes to nuclear war”
Russia will not back down, the perimeter will fire in any case.
This is the US-hegemon “Suez moment: Russia told US hwre it could not bomb and the US complied:
Effectively this means that the US is no longer the hegemon or the arbitrator of the world,at least in Syria.
Everyone seems to criticize Putin. Keep saying that he needs to be tougher. Needs to slap the bully down.
Except, what we really see is Putin playing for time. Because he’s wise enough to know that time is on his side.
I don’t disagree with the comments above, that the oligarchs that run the west might well decide that rather a nuclear war than a decline of their empire. Who knows, maybe there’ll be some common sense and human decency there and they’ll just say no. But as The Saker often points out, they tend to like to double-down and escalate. Must be a session on this in the Neoconing for Dummies seminars.
So, Putin plays for time. What does he get with this time.
— He gets new weapons designed to meet the threat, while the west gets fighter planes that don’t fly and which were designed only to maximize the profits of the MIC. Those weapons he announced in his 3/1 speech are only stated as having completed testing, and he needs the time to get them produced and deployed and people trained in how to use them.
— His Chinese allies get stronger, both economically and militarily.
— There’s a chance that the west might well collapse. I’m an American, so I didn’t see the fall of the Soviet Union first hand. But I get the sense that conditions in America aren’t all that different than those before that collapse. Most Americans know the system is vastly wrong, but feel they can do nothing to change things. Whenever there is even a shred of hope, they join in that movement. Both the 08 Obama campaign and the 16 Trump campaign showed this. Neither has delivered on their promises of change and hope and new directions. But that doesn’t negate the point that the American people support anything that seems to offer change, hope and a new direction. The whole thing has the feeling of a powder keg that’s destined to blow. But then again, the most sophisticated surveilence and police state in history is trying to keep the lid on. So, nothing’s for certain. But there’s always a chance that the powder keg might blow. Or that the American people in their search for change and hope find a way to get there.
To me, the comments just above this one illustrate the point of why Putin is following the course he follows. On one hand, he can not just surrender to the oligarchs. On the other hand, he knows that anything too aggressive risks a nuclear war. Thus, the careful path where he plays for time.
“Russia will not back down, the perimeter will fire in any case.”
I hope you are right, Boris.
Both sides know this….and yet, the game plays on.
“What makes the US believe that their 1980s era nukes will get through any more successfully than their nice new smart bombs”
They believe that those would get through just as successfully as the April 14th cruise missiles against Syria. Which they believe did get through.
Regarding the nuclear warheads, they are demonstrably right, for basic scientific, technological and strategic reasons. Please study the relevant information on nuclear warheads if you have a doubt.
Intercepting a ballistic missile has different physics than intercepting a low-flying cruis missile. The big problem is what happens to that nuclear warhead? If its already coming down on gravity’s rainbow, then its still coming down. And, contrary to what Hollywood shows, not everything is magically vaporized in explosions. Maybe enough damage is done to the fuses and triggers where it doesn’t go off. But if all the anti-missile did was knock the engine out, then that’s still a live nuke falling out of the sky.
I don’t know how anti-missiles work, but the anti-air missiles were usually radar guided to get close, then they explode like a hand grenade and count on shrapnel to take a thin-skinned plane out. Or to take out a terrain following cruise missile then crashes to earth. But for a ballistic missile, the actual nuclear warhead probably needs more than that to be vaporized like in a movie of video game. The generals might be happy that the missile was knocked off course and no longer hitting their bunker, but the world still gets a megaton explosion somewhere.
you have a misconception about how intercontinental missiles work: the body (engine, fuel, etc.) gets separated from the warhead outside the atmosphere. The only thing that falls in the target is the warhead itself following a ballistic trajectory (hence the name)
But, you are right: intercepting a small warhead that approaches at mach 15+ is orders of magnitude more difficult than a sub-sonic cruise missile.
That the USA is 100% susceptible, (unlike Russia) to the Nuclear Tsunami tactic hasn’t sunk in yet so far as the American public is concerned. No high tech delivery system is even necessary. Just roll em off a fishing boat with a GPS. It’s Checkmate.
A tsunami has several orders of magnitude more power even than the most powerful nuclear bomb.
Detonating a nuclear bomb underwater won’t start a tsunami
And if you explode it on a fault line?
That question would have to be asked to a geologist.
Just from an “orders of magnitude” reasoning, I’d say for a significant seism to be triggered – much beyond the power of the bomb itself I mean – the fault line would have to be very fragile to begin with.
No idea whether some very fragile fault lines do exist, and in the affirmative where exactly. It would have to be: not too far from the intended target.
Americans built nuclear plants on their fault lines.
“Detonating a nuclear bomb underwater won’t start a tsunami”
Any proof of that? Links please.
According to some knowledgeable people an underwater landslide set off by a nuclear explosion could in certain cases cause tsunamis of well over 500m high. IIRC one of these places was next to the Canarie Islands. Long time ago I saved all of that info but on another HD. It would take some serious digging… ;-)
So you want this guy to justify himself to you, when you’re too lazy to dig up an old vaguely remembered reference !? :
Hint: There’s these things called Search Engines
Yes, it’s important for people to know what they’re saying, and it’s great for them to add links that one can use to follow up.
But Sea Lioning is so pathetic.
You are correct about the differences between Tsunamis and underwater nuclear explosions.
A nuclear explosion wave is similar to a rock thrown into a pond where the amplitude of the wave may be high but the wavelength is very short. Available research demonstrates that surface waves from even a very large offshore undersea explosion would expend most of their energy on the continental shelf, resulting in coastal flooding no worse than that from a bad storm: “Water Waves Generated by Underwater Explosions” https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235143557_Water_Waves_Generated_by_Underwater_Explosion
In contrast, an underwater earthquake from a reverse fault yields a water displacement that has a much lower amplitude but a much greater wavelength. Thus a tsunami travels much further with little loss of energy:
“Wind-generated waves usually have period (time between two successive waves) of five to twenty seconds and a wavelength of 100 to 200 meters. A tsunami can have a period in the range of ten minutes to two hours and wavelengths greater than 500 km. A wave is characterized as a shallow-water wave when the ratio of the water depth and wavelength is very small. The velocity of a shallow-water wave is also equal to the square root of the product of the acceleration of gravity, g, (10m/sec2) and the depth of the water.
The rate at which a wave loses its energy is inversely related to its wavelength. Since a tsunami has a very large wavelength, it will lose little energy as it propagates. Thus, in very deep water, a tsunami will travel at high speeds with little loss of energy. For example, when the ocean is 6100 m deep, a tsunami will travel about 890 km/hr, and thus can travel across the Pacific Ocean in less than one day.”
If close to shore, a wave from an underwater nuclear explosion could be approximately modeled from known underwater explosions which constitute about 1% of all tsunamis. In the case of the 1650 AD Kolumbo tsunami, the source mechanism that best matches with the spatial distribution of tsunami deposits in Santorini is a 2E16 Joules underwater explosion initiated at water depths of 150 m. Initial wave surface displacement of 300m yielded a maximum coastal tsunami of 12m to a nearby island but dropped off rapidly with distance: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235143557_Water_Waves_Generated_by_Underwater_Explosion
A 100MT nuclear detonation would yield 41.84E16 J of energy. In case of an underwater nuclear explosion about 50% would be blast energy, 15% nuclear radiation and 35% thermal radiation. This would yield about 20E16 J of blast energy, or ten time that of the Kolumbo underwater explosion. Perhaps the initial wave might approach a nearby shore at a height of 40-100 m but would break at a corresponding water depths and end up as a very damaging storm surge. I would be more concerned by flooding caused radioactive rain due to some of the 1-5E12 tons of radioactive water raised in the column.
A significant quantity of the radioactivity comes from non-fissile uranium-234, which is an alpha emitter with half life of 2.44E5 years , as well as isotopes of plutonium formed by the neutron irradiation of U-238 in the explosion (at 80% U-235 enrichment).
In addition to other radioisotopes from the fission of U-235 there are seawater components that become radioactive from the 15% nuclear radiation of the detonation:
Sodium-24 (half life of 15 hrs) and 0.1% of seawater
Chloride-36 (half life of 300,000 years) and 0.1% of seawater
sulfur -35 (half life of 87.5 days) and 0.09% of seawater
The greatest seawater component concern is Na-24 which decays to Mg-24 by beta-minus decay emission of an electron and two gamma rays.
Given that the thermal energy from a 100MT nuclear detonation = 3.5×E19
Calories, you get up to 2.21E10 megatons of steam or a lot of really hot water and steam! Anyone for a warm radioactive bath?
For fun, see Nukemap to get the radius of fireball for an air burst. Google quit supporting the more advanced Nukemap3D, as users were having too much fun blowing up things. Porn comes in many forms:
I have to laugh at people who are amazed that the SAA could shoot down Tomahawk cruise missiles. The technology to shoot down object flying at 500 mph (more or less) has been around for decades. What the Syrians lacked was the ability to detect and target these objects. The advanced Russian radars provide this detection capability. The targeting end of the equation seems to have been met through the provision of advanced point defense systems like the Pantsir (and perhaps upgraded BUK medium range systems).
The mythology surrounding the much vaunted Tomahawk stems from its being used almost exclusively against targets without any real modern anti-aircraft defense. You push a button on a US Navy destroyer and a mud hut in Afghanistan or Sudan blows up. Think about it for a moment… Where have US cruise missiles ever been successfully deployed against a target defended by a modern anti-aircraft defense?
The Tomahawk, to my admittedly limited knowledge, does not have any real defensive capabilities other than flying low and hoping not to be detected. This is reportedly not a flaw in some of the more modern missiles being fielded today so one would expect that this newest generation of cruise missiles would be much more difficult to intercept.
The US use of Tomahawks against third world nations is very similar to the use of bi-planes to attack Iraqi villages in the interwar period (1919-1939). To all observers these bi-planes (and the poison gas they often dropped) were effective and seemingly unstoppable, but once these same weapons came up against first world opponents in 1939-40 they were revealed to be antiquated and ineffective on the modern battlefield. I think we will see Tomahawks in the same way a few years from now. They were great for attacking third world countries, but pretty much worthless when directed against a first world opponent. I expect that, now that the US finds itself again engaging against a first world opponent, we will see Tomahawks withdrawn from front line service ASAP in the US Navy and Air Force, with monetary considerations keeping them in service longer than their effectiveness would warrant.
One point to consider: the Earth is round.
As a consequence, visibility is limited to no farther than the horizon. Whose distance can be estimated as square root of double the product of the altitude by the Earth’s radius. For example, a missile flying at 50 meters altitude is invisible beyond the horizon which is located approximated sqrt ( 2 * 6400 * 0.05 ) = 25 km away.
This obviously on condition that the land is flat, otherwise the cruise missile will have be programmed to use the hills and mountains to hide from nearby air defenses, whose positions are known in advance by the attacker because emissions of their radars enable locating them. South-Western part of Syria has many hills.
Russian S-400s are located near Tartous and Hmeimim. They are totally useless to guard against cruise missile attack on Damas and Homs: more than 25 km away.
Sorry but Russia has deployed two Beriev A-50 Mainstay radar planes in Syria. Furthermore, Russia has installed radar arrays on hills to see farther.
As for the so called US stealth fighters, Russia now has Sunflower Radar to see even stealth fighters over the horizon.
One must remember that Russia also has ships at sea that can provide early warning of any attacks on Syria.
@Alexis TK27. The earth is not round. It is oval – a bit elongated at the Equator. It’s radius from the center varies from the Equator to the two poles. This must be factored into the calculation in the geographical area where the missiles is launched and the target!
The possibility is real that the Russian people will not allow Putin to retire as he has planned, at least not until the US ability to project its hegemonic fantasies has been severely and irreversibly weakened. About 10 years should do it.
Hopefully said succession happens later rather than sooner, but regardless of who is at the helm, they could do with dropping the “our Western Partners” lingo altogether and address them with something more akin to the untrustworthy, lawless, deceiving, self serving, treacherous, reprobate regimes that their record of history attests to.
The sad thing is if it starts a war… The scary thing is.. What if it doesn’t.. What if Russia backs away..
No, never you may say.
But look at North Korea. Where they not the most defiant of all? But faced with actual nuclear war with USA, they gave up… Isn’t the Russian elite more rational then the USA elite? Wont they also give up when faced with servitude or total extermination?
“North Korea drops withdrawal of US forces as condition of denuclearization, Moon says”
“Isn’t the Russian elite more rational then the USA elite? Wont they also give up when faced with servitude or total extermination?”
Who knows but why would that be a bad thing to happen or make any real difference to the 99.99%?
“Oleg Deripaska, whose dealings with key figures in the ongoing probe of Russian interference in the 2016 election are under scrutiny, hosted an extravagant party on Friday night at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, featuring boats of caviar, magnum bottles of Dom Perignon and a performance by Grammy winner Enrique Iglesias.
Like many other promotional events at the forum, Deripaska’s party started with tributes to his aluminum company, Basic Element, and affiliated charities. Screens lining the walls showed slideshows of elephants for an Africa-based wildlife charity. On the center-stage, scenic images of Russia mixed with videos of workers operating machinery inside of his aluminum plant.
Other notable guests included British financier Nat Rothschild, British politician Peter Mandelsohn, WPP CEO Sir Martin Stuart Sorrell, Gazprom executive Sergey Vakulenko and Pamona CEO Michael Granoff.
In the back of the chalet, grey-haired men in suits lounged on black leather couches separated from the dance floor by a velvet rope. Beautiful young women in pencil skirts and button-down shirts lined the dance floor.
Nearby, outside, protesters held up signs reading “Gangster’s paradise.”
Although the poster was referring to alleged Russian / Trump collusion it does exemplify that there is a thin piece of paper between all of the parasitical Global elite.
Russians, like the elite everywhere, have a vested interest in global conflict and the misery of others – take the Syrian war weapons advertisement proving ground for instance with no sales (or control) of S300 provided the state of that nation for self-protection but S-400 contract with Saudi Arabia.
US, Russia account for more than half of global arms trade, which hit highest level since Cold War
The much touted conflict between Russia and the West is a sham, it would be a little trickier to increase the global MIC without such tension.
“Russia” will back away every time, for the time being. The global elite are not yet in a position to rely on AI to develop genetic therapies to provide them eternal life.
It is a game.
Do you seriously believe that NK will abandon its nuclear programme for the sake of 30 000 US troops? Did SK president Moon say that? Really? Kim may be a nasty piece of work but he’s not stupid. Would he throw away his main deterrence against the Hegemon’s agression in exchange for the withdrawal of a measly number of troops, ships and planes (30 000 out of 370 000 under USPACOM) when they can be placed just slightly east in Japan?
But hey, its CNN, the ‘The Most Trusted Name in News’, so it must be the truth. Tell you what — spend more time here on this blog; it’ll help you take the blinkers off.
What if Russia backs away..
No, never you may say.
And by the way,
Is the night the same as day?
Humanity will all rue the day
When we let the Hegemon have its way
Without even having a say.
No, Russia will never back away.
“But hey, its CNN, the ‘The Most Trusted Name in News’, so it must be the truth. Tell you what . ”
” N. Korea’s Kim removes major nuclear ‘sticking point’ – Seoul ”
NK backed off, if NK can back off then anyone can back off.
“— spend more time here on this blog; it’ll help you take the blinkers off”
-I don’t really hold sites that practices such extreme level of censorship in high regard. Also, while thesaker’s geopolitical analyzes are interesting.. The general ideology of this site is liberal.. If I want to read about how evil whites are or that those that voted for Trump are redneck hillbiess or “uneducated” and so forth I can just read Salon or any other liberal rag.
Last I checked, Kim was still in power and North Korea still had nuclear weapons.
“The general ideology of this site is liberal.. ”
There’s a saying in the East — as in East Asia, not east Kentucky — that whoever eats the
cili feels the heat.
Did I say anything about Trump’s supporters? I’m not an American, or more correctly since the South and Central Americans may protest at the use of the term, an USAian and I don’t give two hoots about who supports who in US elections. I don’t care if US citizens can carry guns or not; or whether they have adequate health insurance or not. I don’t even care if the US president messages people on Twitter. I certainly don’t give a fig if people see this blog as liberal or not. What I do care is whether the incumbent POTUS executes the power of his office responsibly and works towards (yes, it’s quaint isn’t it?) world peace. The Saker has provided a forum for reasoned discussion on current concerns. Why don’t you take adventage of it and improve your mind?
The RT report that you linked to quoted AP, one of the most trustworthy news gatherers out there. They only disseminate the Gospel Truth, no less. Can you see an important principle at work here? Read what others write but don’t forget to use your God-given ability to think as you parse the words.
Like I said, spend more time here. And FYI I don’t read Salon either.
well stated dude …. Liberal ? whats that ?
“There’s a saying in the East — as in East Asia, not east Kentucky — that whoever eats the
cili feels the heat.”
-I don’t live in east Kentucky. I would bother showing you examples and showing you quotes and links from this site, however I doubt this comment will ever be posted and I know it certainly wont be posted if I do that. So whatever.
“Can you see an important principle at work here?”
-Yes, you will fanatically reject reality until it is no longer possible. A very common behavior on sites with heavy censorship. It attracts people that can only thrive in echo-chamber environments. Where 99% of the comments are in the style of “Oh, great article Thesaker”, “Oh, wonderful work thesaker.”, “Oh, thesaker you are an inspiration.”, “Oh, thesaker you did it again fantastic work.” Mind-numbing comment field to say the least… And sporadically a semi-critical comment is allowed thru and it is instantly overwhelmed with personal attacks and other insults.
A quote comes to mind.
“Sometimes people don’t want to hear the truth because they don’t want their illusions destroyed.”
“Like I said, spend more time here. And FYI I don’t read Salon either.”
-If you spend a lot of time here you will recognize Salon it is a ultra-liberal site, many authors here use it as a source.
My experience has been that the Saker blog is quite diverse. I don’t read Salon either but if you are using the term “Liberal” in the sense that it’s used in the US then I would have to disagree. The Saker site has a strong religious orientation, especially Christian. I don’t think you’ll find too many Hillary Clinton voters here. There is also very low tolerance for what is normally referred to as “political correctness” by the right. That includes alternative lifestyles such as homosexuality. There is still a good representation of Trump supporters here despite all the disappointments his administration has given us.
I do agree though, that any criticism of President Putin is not well tolerated. I also feel that the risk of nuclear war between the US and Russia is greatly overstated. The recent trend is labeling those who call for a more aggressive military response by Russia as trolls or disinformation agents.
The diversity of the Saker blog may be due to the fact that President Putin can be seen in many different ways. On the one hand, there are those that hope that Putin will restore the State Socialist system of the USSR. On the other hand, others see him as the savior of Capitalism and Christianity.
Funny, as someone who had been on the left for decades, I’d say this site is generally conservative.
Of course, we live in a Orwellian era where “liberal” and “progressive” have been redefined to be people like Hillary and Obama, who love bankers, do nothing for ordinary people, never meet a war they don’t love and have massive assasination programs by drone and special forces. None of that is my idea of liberal or progressive. So who even knows what terms like ‘liberal’ mean any more. They sure don’t mean the people I used to support like Paul Wellstone.
No, I don’t read Salon either. Not for a long, long time. To me, a large percentage of the left has gone completely bat-guano crazy. There are a few voices on the left that to me have remained principled and decent. But even they seem to feel they have to write with a lot of childish name-calling of Trump just to please their audience and editors.
I like “recovering leftist”, like “recovering alcoholic”. Sadly, when most of the leftists I know and love are asked who pays Amy Goodman and what her actual job is, they go into a state of mute shock, or worse, start ad hominem-ing the bringer of bad news. May they recover their senses one of these days (not holding my breath)…
I like your poem basil.
” But faced with actual nuclear war with USA, they gave up…”
Did they really?
Kim matches Trump outrageous brag for outrageous brag then…
He goes to visit China for a meeting.
He comes out the meeting all smiles, happy to denuclearise and doesn’t even demand US forces stop their wargames off his shores………..Astounding – a completely different man!
So exactly what did the Chinese promise him at that meeting??
What if Russia backs away?
Then we are all Hegemon slaves existing only to serve and provide for the Exceptional People.
And, eventually, Russia disintegrates into a bunch of bickering tribes ripe for pillaging and plucking.
So. Hopefully they won’t. Not to save us – but to save themselves.
Moon doesn’t speak for North Korea. He is playing diplomat here, trying in every way possible, to give the (fractional) realists in the Monkey Empire every possible way to exit with ‘honour’…
A lot of things are being stood on their heads these days.
Take NATO for instance, obsolete in its original purpose. Of the countries that make up NATO, an attack on one was supposed to be an attack on all.
I didn’t realise that additionally an attack from one was an attack from all. (Skripal and Douma)
NATO, the hegemon’s proxy war arm is a serious liablility -a danger to the world that could stand to be disbanded. Right now would not be too soon.
“an attack from one was an attack from all”
That’s not what Article 5 of the Atlantic Alliance says https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm
Britain chose not to consider the Salisbury attack as an armed attack as understood under Article 5 provision.
I don’t know if “Britain chose” that. But Stoltenberg at NATO HQ clearly said that Art. 5 did not apply to Salisbury. It doesn’t matter what Britain chooses if the rest of NATO just laughs.
Whereas there is no provision stipulating that an attack from one NATO member state is an attack from all, it is very clear to me that a retaliatory strike against the attacking NATO member state could lead to the invocation of article 5. In my opinion, that is the main reason why the warmongers within NATO love the organization so much. For exactly this reason, any NATO member state willing to uphold international law should leave the organization asap. These lawful states have nothing to gain from their member status, but everything to loose – credibility, sovereignty and – in case of war – territory and population.
Oppression is worse than slaughter (Quran)
It seems that some form of sanity prevailed from the most insane of places. The undisputed oppressor in TelaWashington decided to exercise a symbolic act of force rather than a real one. A face saving exercise to pacify his own ego. So we awake another day and are grateful that nuclear war has been delayed. Surely this is a blessing. But could it be that maybe our blessings prolong the suffering of others?
Yes we awake to sunshine, to life, to another normal routine which we are accustomed to. But what do the people of Gaza awake to? What did the innocent of Sham awake to? The innocent of Ukraine? The people of Yemen, Afghanistan, northern Pakistan? Are they awaking to a life of sunshine or darkness? Do they wake up to a routine or utter uncertainty?
The oppressor is still at large, reigning supreme and at will exercising cruelty and suffering upon a population of his choice. So I ask you to reflect on a simple question. War is not good, nuclear war would be a utter disaster. But isn’t the delay of the inevitable war prolonging the status quo of the oppressors? While we enjoy another day of the present world order and status quo, can the same be said of the oppressed? The status quo which gives us comfort simultaneously delivers suffering and destruction to the oppressed. Is a system or present world order such as this worth prolonging? Could it be that what we perceive as a blessing may turn out to be a curse?
Our beloved teacher The Saker (may he continue to be blessed) recently asked us in an article, “What price is mankind willing to pay?” Granted life is sacred and we don’t want destruction. But I would ask a supplementing question: Are we willing to sacrifice our comforts so that the oppressor can hit the dust? If it turns out that nuclear war is the only way to defeat the oppressor, is it worth it? For surely the divine religions Judaism, Orthodox Christianity, and Islam all appeal to justice and would agree that oppression is worse than slaughter.
When Pharoah killed the male sons of the children of Israel, the bigger trial was the sparing of and oppression inflicted upon the females. Jesus himself stated, “I came not to bring peace, but a sword.” He must have known that the status quo cannot take precedence over oppression, hence the sword even if it meant disrupting peace.
No one is suggesting that we pray for nuclear war. What is being suggested is for us to reflect whether if our fear of the Malhama-Armageddon-Nuclear war might cloud our judgement and we may begin to accept the status quo and its oppressive nature as an acceptable trade off to death, suffering, nuclear winter, and related struggles. For us believers in the creator, that would be a great loss. We cannot fear Nuclear war, we must only fear God.
The most high would have us fear him out of mercy. It is the beginning of wisdom.
Lasttruebeliever (try this) the beginning of wisdom is desire – for union with that idea that lies behind the self-same; this mental-desire to reside within or near the same as us, is what the term, ‘religion’ means – when an emotional outburst is met with reason, it gushes forth sanity. Ergo, the foundation/genesis/beginning of wisdom is the acquisition of emotional sanity, and from reason overflowing with insight, wisdom inchoately churns into wonder of The Most High (not fear of The Most High, for remember, respect is offered, not taken).
Lasttruebeliever : “Fear” : is not a part of The Most High. Thus, don’t bring to The Most High what The Most High cannot receive.
475: “We must only fear God”.
To fear Him, is to be afraid of Joy.
475, your confusing “awesome” with “awe”.
You cannot fear God and be Wholly Alive.
475, try loving your self. Then try fearing your self. Then love again, then fear again; eventually, you will come to understand, you can’t fear your self and know your self at the same time, and since God is knowledge – show some respect.
475, “Oppression is worse than slaughter (Quran) “
You ask what The Saker asked : What price are we prepared to pay?
I am prepared to struggle to live in a post nuclear holocaust world to be free of the hegemon.
Now I am aware that should that come to pass I will cry and scream, hate and curse the gods and the US and Russia and it will be hard, but I also know this…. If I don’t survive it doesn’t matter and if I do my grandchildren will live free. No hegemon’s MIC will be dropping bombs on their heads, homes and children for profit – and that is worth it.
And who knows, perhaps we’ll do a better job of it all next time round.
I give a flying (removed language,MOD) about my family and myself dying if we can take down Israel and the USA too.
Nice words, what a time this second cold war is.
I hope this anglozionist stage is over to really think in a possible sustainable future. With the hegemon in power, there is no hope for life.
Thanks, Saker, accurate analysis, I believe. Two questions, though. One, do you have any understanding of why haven’t Russians provided Syria with the S-300 system yet? What are they waiting for? Is there some strategic calculation behind the delay? Second, you write about removing the finger off the trigger. But how could this possibly be done? If it were possible, we’d be – in effect – done with the hegemony of US. That’s the end game – so do you imagine some intermediary step?
There is one reason and one reason only why Russia has not provided Syria with S300 – Israel. The delivery of S300 is the litmus-test for Putin of is he one of (((them))) or not, or even if he’s not one of the Tribe if he is willing to stand up to them or not. No S300 in Syria means Putin is not man enough to stand up to the (((Kabal)))
That seems to be a common comment on the internet, but I’ve never actually seen any proof of that statement.
The official reason is Russia has been “politely” asked not to deliver S300s to Syria. (Unofficial rationales include Putin’s well known will to maintain good relations with Israel).
Syria is under an international ban of some kind of weapons, advanced missiles being one of them.
Russia has chosen to oblige – even though she was not bound to a ban against an official ally – out of respect of international “partners”, which is Putin’s hallmark all the time.
Yet, Lavrov (per Reuters, quoting RIA) summarized it all this way:
“Now [after Syria’s Strike], we have no moral obligations [to keep enforcing the embargo on s300]. We had the moral obligations, we had promised not to do it some 10 years ago upon the request of our known partners”
Make your assumptions. My interpretation is that if international community proves itself unable to reciprocate respect… well, Russia too can have a – uhm – dialectic and conditioned approach to obligations. Particularly when we’re talking of non-binding obligations, issued upon exercise of diplomacy, politeness or goodwill.
Lavrov’s statement can also be seen as a warning to Israel on quit acting as a child with a temper tantrum (I think there’s much more, tho).
As per Putin’s er… servile attitude to (((them))). My guess it’s as servile as his attitude with Russian oligarchs or “Atlanticists” in RF’s gov. The type of relationship about which you answer to questions on the matter with a “It’s complicated”.
In the meantime RuAF is heavily beating the crap out of Jihadists in Qalamun and South Damascus, with Tiger Forces, Isis Hunters (both with Russian embedded crews) and Palestinian paramilitary on the ground. Along with SNG, we’re talking of the creme de la creme of Syrian Amy’s shock troops and the best of aligned allies.
Both targets are strategically indispensable to decisive actions at Golan (Israel) and Jordan borders.
You may call this “lip service to Israel”, I’d like NOT being lip serviced this way.j
“Syria is under an international ban of some kind of weapons, advanced missiles being one of them.
Russia has chosen to oblige”
…..Aaah… I always wondered why Russia was supplying their Syrian ally with barrels for bombs?!
I don’t think Russia will be supplying Syria with S-300’s …. If they were going to do it they’d do it and not talk about it. …….I also think that just maybe those ships on their way there right now might be loaded up with Pantsirs.
Looks like there are a lot of covered up lorries on that thing – just like a Pantsir would look if you chucked a cover over it. ?
Not really – Pantsir’s would serve them better.
Sides, if Syria urgently needs bigger S-thingies Russia could … just hand one or two over quickly.
QAnon (YouTube) keeps dropping his puzzling messages and he reveals at times of what is to come, like on APril 13, before the strike: “Apr 13 2018 21:07:44 (EST) Q !xowAT4Z3VQ ID: 18f5fc 1032326
The missiles were referring to Syria, so he knows what is coming, just as he predicted that soon after the first criminal investigations were called for by Congress members and they are happening: to Comey, McCabe and soon Hillary, Strzsok etc. as well. So Trump got his ratings up (as always happens when a POTUS calls for military action) and he can now go ahead (or is team does) with indictments around DNC, FBI, DOJ, crimes (FISA Memos are relevant here, of course).
So, Q, who is seen by Jerome Corsi as a person or team, as a military intelligence official who knows what is happening and how to attack the Deep State.
This might be more important to Trump than Syria while he is ready to leave it (to the Arabs).
Also, the profiteers of war who like to establish this New World Order (Hegemony) will not profit from a WWIII with nukes as it will destroy the earth, so that goes nowhere in terms of $$.
Thanks for mentioning Q. I’ve looked ar qanon.pub a few times, trying to make sense of it, but the coded language is too deep for me. I’ve also seen explanations given for why Q speaks in code, but I haven’t, as yet, understood them.
See website phi beta iota or TRU reporting, tru is dedicated to Q decryption
Actually I think that it is worse than the Saker is suggesting. There are people out there who are spreading doubt about the extreme consequences of a thermonuclear war, Anatoly Karlin being one of them (scroll down to the 3rd section)
I had previously assumed that he was a trifle more sane than that. He gives as a source “nuclear war theorist” Herman Kahn (On Thermonuclear War)
Even if Kahn was correct, and very few modern scientists seem to believe that, then one must question the wisdom of propagating his views, especially in the current situation.
The current trend amongst the insanely rich of building lavish fallout shelters is also suggestive of a view that total thermonuclear war would be a mere temporary inconvenience. Personally I believe that such structures should be made illegal, both for private and for government/military use. Any government that brings thermonuclear war onto its populous is obviously unfit to continue governing.
The current trend amongst the insanely rich of building lavish fallout shelters is also suggestive of a view that total thermonuclear war would be a mere temporary inconvenience.
This idea comes from a tendency, present in all of us, to take infrastructure for granted. The repairman is part of the furniture. When the fallout shelter’s air conditioning develops ominous grinding noises and the air gets a bit stuffy; well, that’s the time you realize that there’s no-one left to call.
The rich without their slaves. Yeah, that’ll work.
None left to call? It will be worse than that. The ones left to call will be happy/busy to destroy these bunkers from within. Cold revenge tastes sweet. :-)
People are insane. The only way to survive a full nuclear exchange and its aftermath is with a portal gun.
I am not worried about people like Karlin uttering this kind of absurdity.
Leaders of nations, especially nuclear-armed ones, are well informed about the effects of nuclear weapons. What isolated people who don’t have such access to information, or choose to ignore what they should know, say is of little consequence other than to agitate and worry.
And draw attention to them, too.
Karlin must know he’s talking nonsense. The real question is why is he doing it?
It would be pretty easy to defeat such a system. Just cover the air shaft and wait for the survivors to emerge. None of these places has any kind of remotely-fired weaponry or robotic vehicles/drones with weapons from what I can see. Any survivors from a nuke war (and there will be plenty) will eventually find such places and essentially “smoke ’em out”.
The other thing left uncontemplated is response time. If the US military has only about 20 minutes to respond to an attack, how is that plutocrat going to make it to South Dakota from NYC? Your bastion of hope might as well be in Antarctica.
…..suggestive of a view that total thermonuclear war would be a mere temporary inconvenience.
Well …. yes.
20 – 200 years is “temporary.”
The bigger worry would (or should) be is – nothing in the West is built to last more than 1.
No Fighting in the War Room or Dr. Strangelove and the Nuclear Threat
Peter Sellers doing accent and talking Dr. Strangelove on NBC’s Today
Show interview (1980)
My response to Anatoly Karlin In regards to his article:
“Even a full-scale thermonuclear exchange between Russia and the US is patently survivable. The theory of “nuclear winters”, at least in its wilder variants (drops of many tens of degrees), has been long discredited. The eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 was approximately equal in megatonnage to that of all the world’s current nuclear arsenals, and yet it merely led to a single “year without a summer” that did not even produce any major famines in a pre-industrial world. Fallout radiation levels decay rapidly, and it will be safe to emerge from shelters almost everywhere after just two weeks.”
First, I am surprised that anyone would cite a 1987 update of a 1979 report as a creditable source on atmospheric effects of nuclear war. In reality, a Nuclear Winter would be worse than predicted due to massive quantities of sulfur dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, soot, and dust+radiation entering the upper atmosphere as well as dramatic increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. A more accurate accounting of the atmospheric effect of a 5,000 megaton nuclear exchange is as follows:
(1) sulfur dioxide release:
The Mount Tambora eruption in 1815 “threw 55 million tons of sulfur-dioxide gas (50 Tg of SO2) more than twenty miles into the air, into the stratosphere.”
By comparison, the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption generated some 20 million tons of SO2, yielding a global temperature reduction of 0.5 degrees C.:
Thus the Mount Tambora eruption would have been expected to cause a 1-1.5 degree C drop in global temperatures due to sulfur dioxide
The sulfur contribution to a Nuclear Winter event would be considerable, as modern houses contain a lot of sulfur in the form of gypsum (CaSO4-2H2O). The average home size in America is almost 1900 sq ft and contains 1.6 pounds of gypsum/ sq ft, for a total of almost 260 Kg of sulfur per house. To inject 5 Tg of sulfur into the atmosphere in a nuclear exchange would involve the vaporization at high temperature (>1500°C) of 10 million US homes in the nuclear fireballs. If worldwide 100 million homes are incinerated the sulfur dioxide contribution to a nuclear winter event would approximately equal the Tambora eruption of 1815.
(2) oxides of nitrogen
An air burst, for example, is estimated to produce about 1032 molecules of nitrogen oxides per megaton TNT equivalent.
Based on 5,000 Mt yield in an allot nuclear war there will also be 24Tg of NO released in the atmosphere just from the reactions with atmospheric nitrogen gas. Additional nitrogen compounds from materials within the blast and forest fire zones will slightly add to this total: https://www.fpl.fs.fed.us/documnts/pdf1983/baker83a.pdf
(3) Soot (carbon black)
Toon et al. in 2007 pointed out that 5 Tg of soot (50 15kt nuclear weapons) would reduce the global average temperature by 1.25°C for 3–4 years and by more than 0.5°C for a decade. They also indicate that the carbon black is likely to become coated with sulfates, organics, and other nonabsorbing materials, which could act as lenses, refracting light onto the carbon black. This effect might increase absorption by ∼50%, leading to potentially greater impacts than those we modeled.
The Toon et al. study considered only a nuclear exchange of about 750 kilotons (TNT equivalent) when a full scale nuclear exchange would yield over 5,000-6,000 times thIS amount of carbon black generated. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL BE FAR BELOW FREEZING FOR MORE THAN A DECADE.
Dust entrained in the upper atmosphere would be highly variable depending on the megatonnage of air vs surface blasts in a nuclear exchange. As far as I know no one has analyzed the effects of a nuclear war on dust contribution to the upper atmosphere. Needless to say any dust would contribute to further reduction of light to the earth’s surface.
Radiation would be the least of the worries for those who survived the global cooling from Nuclear Winter. A fairly complete accounting of the radiological effect of nuclear war can be found at:
A portion of the nuclear weapon targets are hardened facilities where a ground blast would be employed. Some of these are nuclear weapons facilities (naval bases, etc) containing considerable nuclear materials.
Other sites, include Hanford spent fuel storage and nuclear waste tanks along with the 4,000 spent fuel ponds on the planet cumulatively represent the radiation of over 60,000,000 Hiroshima sized bombs if targeted. Many of the fuel cooling ponds will boil dry once the reactors either go critical and longer supply cool water to the ponds. The fuel will melt along with the cladding and a portion of this material will become airborne contaminating the local area creating a dead zone.
(5) Carbon dioxide
The resulting firestorms from nuclear detonations would be dependent on other climate factors and have not been modeled as far as I know. While not a factor in global cooling, the enhanced carbon dioxide levels will add to global warming once carbon black, sulfur dioxide and oxides of nitrogen are washed out of the atmosphere.
For those interested in further reading, a Federation of American Scientists review contains a summary of the more recent peer-reviewed studies on nuclear winter (which US leadership has decided to ignore or reject), see “Turning a Blind Eye Towards Armageddon — US Leaders Reject Nuclear Winter Studies”
In addition to my comment to Karlin one has to also consider the following impacts
Following the nuclear war the initial survivors will have to contend with war bands (See Toynbee) who will attempt to scavenge for and clothing from those who cannot protect themselves. Your neighbors will even attack if they think you have resources or break in to gather resources if they think you are dead.
(b) Ozone depletion
For nuclear explosions of intermediate and moderately high yield in the air or near the surface, the cloud reaches into the altitude range of 50,000 to 100,000 feet. Hence, the nitrogen oxides, along with increased upper atmosphere moisture, from such explosions would be expected to enhance mechanisms that decrease the ozone concentration. Even after washout of carbon black from the upper atmosphere the ozone depletion should persist further damaging plant and animal life that survives the Nuclear Winter,
(c) Water shortages
Subfreezing temperature over a decade due to a twilight conditions will result in deep freezing of surface fresh water, including rivers. Survivors will either have to have a hand pump, or have a pump in a faraday cage along with fuel, and a deep well in order to acquire fresh water. Otherwise, chipping ice and melting it over fire will be exhausting and will result in additional radiation exposure.
Those who survive the deep freeze will have to savage food from nearby locations where the occupants have died of disease or freezing. As the temperature return to “normal” the billions of human corpses as well as that of the wildlife will thaw out. Those who survived the initial nuclear war will have produced massive quantities of feces that will also thaw out (stock up in toilet paper now). Cumulatively, this rotting organic matter will likely cause a public health crisis and perhaps a pandemic among the survivors of the Nuclear Winter..
(e) Long term radiation exposure
Those who survive will likely have full chemical biological and radiological protection and can survive on stored food for some time. Ultimately, they will have to grow crops to survive into the future. Those who have the skills and seeds to grow crops will have to contend with exposure to excess levels of long lived radioisotopes such as cesium, strontium and uranium which will result in higher levels of cancer for many decades.
(f) Medical care
A lack of medical facilities and doctors will make survival a game of chance with many dying due to injuries, infections and even diseases such as appendicitis and gall bladder ruptures.
Radiation from nuclear power alone will kill the biosphere. A many of our nuclear reactors and waste sites will go boom and bust shortly after a nuclear exchange due to interrupted power grids and lacking maintenance. Once their toxic contents ends up in the ecosystem, it will wreck global havoc on a scale never seen. I suspect a couple years after nuclear war only some bacteria, fungi and maybe cockroaches will be alive.
Friends, we do not know the impact of a nuclear exchange on the climate. But since 1945, there have been thousands of nuclear tests in the atmosphere. In 1958, the USSR exploded the Czar Bomb – a 58 megaton monster equal to 2900 Hiroshimas (estimated yield of the Hiroshima bomb was 20,000 tonnes of TNT).
No climate change due to the nuclear testings was observable or proven!
The nuclear tests you mention occurred over arid regions over a long time period. Relatively little carbon or sulfur was entrained into the upper atmosphere from these tests and thus global cooling was not appreciable.
Carbon dioxide production was also minimal due to a lack of carbon in the nuclear detonation zone and there was also not blast driven firestorms of surrounding houses and forests.
The oxides of nitrogen produced in these nuclear detonations would have reduced the ozone levels in the atmosphere but the effects would also be spread over time.
Likewise dust has a higher density than carbon black (2.65 vs 1.0 gram/cc) and would fall out of the atmosphere much more rapidly.
I have also heard comments that the Iraq war oil fires didn’t effect global climate. The commentators failed to mention that the soot (carbon black) didn’t reach the upper atmosphere and thus was quickly washed out by rainfall.
But what about the equilvalent of 2,900 Hiroshimas that was detonated in a second by the Czar Bomb? What about those monsters detonated over water? We know that the oceans have as much influence over climate than land. The Oceans do have a biosphere in the form of plankton, bacteria and viruses and these contribute to climate stability.
The monsters detonated by the US and France over water should have resulted in a “nuclear winter” if Earth’s climate is so fragile. But there was none.
The increase in green-house gases and deforestation over time is a bigger contributor to climate change than nuclear bombs.
So my case is that a nuclear exchange will devastate both sides. But the more hardy nation will survive and recover faster regardless of whether there is a “nuclear winter”.
I covered water detonations of large nuclear torpedos in an above comment:
Krollchem on April 21, 2018 · at 5:23 pm UTC
I hope you find it interesting.
BTW, I noted your point about the effect of carbon black or soot and its contribution to climate change. It’s a subject for which more research is needed.
During the U.S. elections, I had lunch with an Italian friend in Singapore.
He asked me: What is the difference between H.Clinton and Trump?
Without much thinking I did reply: With H.Clinton we have WWIII within a year, with Trump possibly within 3 years.
While we wait for WWIII, much is happening in South America: Argentina, Brazil and Ecuador are reversing everything done by previous popular governments and sinking in monstrous debt to facilitate their oligarchies capital flight. This operation was designed in Washington using local media’s fake news and buying the local justice system. (Condor 2.0 ?).
Washington lost the Middle East, but they are recolonializing South America.
Anyway, on the long run, if there is no WWIII, the ’empire’ and its willing slaves are finished and bad history. Only psychopaths have a problem with reality.
“Washington lost the Middle East, but they are recolonializing South America.”
Perhaps that’s the way USA are withdrawing when losing the Global Empire Status. They’ll go back to pre 1914 situation (without even Philippines which is now dependent on Chinese markets ).
Generally speaking i have never had much trust on Brazilians as powerful partner of China and Russia. They are more weak but gladly less dangerous than India. They don’t have tradition having European wars.
If by US empire one understands all of those countries who base their military security on US protection, then the following countries are very secure parts of that empire:
– most Western and Central European countries
– Japan, South Korea and Taiwan
– Saudi Arabia and most Gulf countries, along with Israel
– A few others such as Canada and Australia
Total US loss in all countries whose control and allegiance is now disputed that is Syria, Turkey, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Philippines is possible even probable.
It would not result in any fatal weakening of the Empire’s main force, which does not lie in these relatively important but still peripherical nations. A battle lost is not a war lost.
Only Americans could fatally weaken their Empire.
If you mentioned Ukraine as a loss for the US, how that loss would be, I mean there would be an open conflict between Russia and Ukraine, no ? and Russia will win that war. That’s OK, but if the US and NATO will be involved – which is likely to be – then Russia will stop at the Ukraine’s western frontier and not follow it’s adversaries like in WW2 ? this is highly unlikely – at least in my opinion. Further more – to add some pepper to this thought – many NATO states will be in a perfect position to exploit such an opportunity and give up the fight or even taking side with Russia – why to let their countries being destroyed for the sake of the Empire ? (when the lies they also know, have accumulated for so many years, not to mention the enormous pressure which did a lot of economical losses)
You may be right. I had mentioned Ukraine just to account for the chance that Ukrainians would sooner or later be tired of their “Maidan” government and replace it with a more moderate one that would seek better relations both with Russia and Western Europe.
If that doesn’t happen, and Ukraine is not at stake in fact, then I’d say my argument is further reinforced.
Putin & Trump will not allow armed confrontation between Russia, US – Lavrov
“Putin & Trump will not allow armed confrontation between Russia, US – Lavrov”
Of course they won’t http://thesaker.is/each-click-brings-us-one-step-closer-to-the-bang/#comment-514411
The good book says the rich and the powerful will attempt to hide themselves in caves and holes in the ground thinking in such places they can escape on that dark and terrible day the wrath of the Lord.
I think it is possible nuclear winter is planned. I think they will push the button because we are expendable. Robotics and AI spell our doom. A 100 million humans and 30 billion robots with copies of our brains can make earth a paradise and have resources enough to contemplate a second home. Its not just secret societies, the mic, politics, its transhumanism…where possession is hard wired.
Pray that that day does not come in winter.
“Pray that that day does not come in winter”
List of deities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_deities – and we here are supposedly searching for the truth when, in fact, the likelihood of any one from that list being the (or a) real deity is practically zero.
Not wishing for any “whataboutery” but why not just pray to the tooth fairy?
Interesting flashback to another episode of ‘Russian Roulette’ in 1973 over Syria.
Right on topic… reading Saker’s mind perhaps.
Wonder if we can see this full interview?
“Speaking about the risk of a military confrontation, I feel absolutely confident to assume that the militaries will not allow this, and of course neither will President Putin or President Trump. They are leaders, after all, elected by their people and responsible for their peace,” Lavrov said.
I was deeply convinced and now I’m almost certain that the role of Trump is to play “the fool” to disassemble the empire with less possible amount of violence. Never mind if he knows about that. Very similar in principle to Gorbatschev at his time played “the peacemaker” for different audience with the same purpose. I would argue that the outcome of this game should be transition from one suggested civilizational model to another, but rather finding new balance between them. The wining- loosing model of understanding the balance sometimes failing to recognize the fact, that the loosing side almost always remains on the scene, yet defeated. This leads to predictions similar to “end of the history”- as time goes, they appear to be short-sighted.
These spectacular media shows, both the fake news “attacks” and “resolute responses” are designed now not only to persuade the elites, but this time broad audience on full daylight, that something here has to be changed.
“I was deeply convinced and now I’m almost certain that the role of Trump is to play “the fool” to disassemble the empire with less possible amount of violence. ”
‘He may look like an idiot and talk like an idiot but don’t let that fool you. He really is an idiot.’
– Groucho Marx
yeah… i didn’t want to going to details precisely because of this. Because my explanation would be more controversial than simple conspiracy theory, I guess. I think that he is, most probably, an idiot. But he’s been chosen by someone to fit into the role, and I think, that if various large group of people acting simultaneously have common belief it is able to push such nomination of an individual to a position. And this various directions in collective unconsciousness are influenced (sometimes maybe even driven) by bigger powers. The God, for example. So that’s it. Believe it or not.
“I was deeply convinced and now I’m almost certain that the role of Trump is to play “the fool”
Yes, indeed, Trump is the proverbial trickster.
Unfortunately, Trump is also an asset of the Jewish Mafia, and the ‘fools’ deployed at key historical moments by the Jewish Mafia – Nero, Robespierre, Napoleon, Lenin, Mussolini, Hitler, Mao… – have brought unimaginable misery to humankind (while always strengthening Jewish Mafia’s global power).
And what strengthens the Zionist power : the induced fear. What will they do if their power is not recognized : war. When I’ll see those in charge who call themselves “partners” acting together against the Zionists, then I’ll believe in World Peace.
“Think of it this way: the only credible (real world) means of aggression left to the Empire are nuclear weapons.”
The US is the only country with a track record of using nuclear weapons, gratuitously to serve as a warning.
No reason to think they would not do the same again to maintain hegemony.
“No reason to think they would not do the same again to maintain hegemony.”
And then we have to study American behavior of a spoiled kid when loosing some game and laughed and ridiculed by others.
yeah there is a reason, Japan couldn’t strike back
I recommend focus on so called western world on religious perspective. Post modern world and secular identity denying all traditions (as unnecessary nonsense) means these folks have indeed lost reason why to even exist. They are drifting. That’s why these hegemony versus multipolar world questions are mystery for them.
The religious aspect is one of the most important indeed. What you have omitted is the fact, the western people ARE by large majority religious. Perverted elites are not changing the fact, nor a little. But the religion there is fragmented and doesn’t have homogeneous character. This is very important, because this will help them search for new paradigm, which I believe is their main role now. This cannot be done without destroying almost all of an old paradigms, and without help of others, who will guard the important traditions and values during great confusion in the meantime. World is transforming, and it doesn’t coming back to what once was, but to the future.
People don’t need complicated and politicized church structures anymore. We have them, sometimes like the lighthouses of high spiritual values,for their bravery and searching for truth and sometimes like a stones tying us to past, which have already passed. It is only our fear of changes, which draws us back, but the religion needs to be deeply redesigned on the East as well. Because people simply evolved too much to reserve connection with God to few elite individuals and this change should be adequately reflected in science, politics and culture as well. We just trying to handle the change best we can, different ways on different places.
Wise and knowing comment.
>have the AngloZionists been successful in forging a united front for a “Crusade against Russia”?
Yes. We must face the truth. Except in 5-6 countries political elites support USA. This support is intrinsic and organic. Life of elites is fully absorbed in western model (film, science, art, education…). There is no other model attractive to elites then the western one. Even in Russia of Serbia the impression and the image of the world is deeply “western”.
The most important lesson from this latest development is that there are still some people in key positions in the US who did what had to be done to avoid a catastrophic escalation in Syria.
Indeed, Russian Eurasianists standing behind their country and Vladimit Putin have allies in the US, and the last thing this US based group wants is war with Russia, however, pushed to an extreme they may not be averse to starting a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula, via a false flag blamed on the North, promising to sabotage the potential for a Chinese dominated century by irradiating the region if the USD fiat, which underpins US military power via more than 1 trillion in annual expenditures, is suddenly collapsed.
Donald Trump is backed by this faction of the Global elite, which is attempting to disentangle the US from some of it’s foreign engagements in the MENA region, while simultaneously engaging in others, primarily in East Asia. The number one objective of this group is to contain China. As with Vladimir Putin in Russia, but for very different reasons, this group seeks to preserve the traditional power of the Nation State. This faction believes a large US government can be used as a weapon against external competitors. It understands US governmental and especially military power arises primarily from USD hegemony, which allows the US to tax the world and spend the proceeds on it’s military. It is also threatened by unfettered and externally driven Oligarchical and Corporatist power, especially that which would emanate from China and a Yuan fiat.
The firing of Rex Tillerson by Donald Trump, achieved only via Twitter after he repeatedly refused to take the hint in other communications, and who was working hard to undermine US power by smashing the capabilities of the US State Department, brought this struggle for the future more fully into the open. The Skirpal affair was launched in the immediate aftermath of that firing, as a counterstroke and escalation meant to hurt Donald Trump and embarass him away from working with Russia..
The world is a very complicated place. I strongly disagree with the oversimplified idea that this is strictly a compeition between Anglo-Zionist Hegemony and a Multipolar World Order, although the struggle is indeed bipolar in nature. The real war being fought is between competing and often heavily intertwoven Deep States, representing ruthlessly competing interests, and of which the UK Rothschild ‘Octopus,’ the US-Centric Rockefeller-Kochs, and the Russian Deep State, which is itself divided between the two Anglo factions already mentioned, are among the most important. What they are fighting for is either a hard or soft landing, each according to what best serves their interests in the world destined to be born.
The other Deep States of significance include the East Asian based in China, itself divided between Rothchild oriented Hong Kong and Chinese sovereignty oriented Shanghai, and in the MENA region where both Arab and Persian Deep States play important roles, most often by funding one or another group or war and often in conflict with each other and themselves, just as with every other geographically or institutionally identified group in the world. The US military (Pentagon and NATO are seperate), CIA and several others are also involved as semi independent actors with their own peculiar factions and interests fighting each other and themselves.
What I fear concerning the Russian Deep State is that many within this group are greatly enamoured of and dependent upon the Rothschild-UK Deep State (Atlanticists), which is still by far the largest Deep State group in terms of accumulated wealth.
Notice how the UK always attacks Russia but leaves Russian billionaires alone most of the time.
On the other hand Russian Eurasianists are generally favourable to National Sovereignty and so their interests coincide more closely with the US-centric Rockefeller-Kochs plus US militarists from within the Pentagon, and so are the driving force behind the not-so secret alliance between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
Notice how the US government most often attacks US billionaires while sanctions generally assist or are harmless to the Russian state.
Concerning the East Asian Deep State, which has been allied to the Rothschild-UK Deep State since the mid 19th century, it is attempting to ply a middle way hoping to avoid a catastrophe for itself and homebase China, and expecting to eventually inherit the world as the meek are apparently destined to do.
As for the primary instigators of this crisis, who need to bury trillions upon trillions of worthless asset deravatives representing their decades and centuries long crime spree against humanity, the UK-Rothschild ‘Octopus’ Oligarchs based in the City of London, and with numerous allies in all parts of the world, could easily slip into irrelevance should a smooth transiion to a multipolar world order occurr. A soft landing would doom the UK to irrelevance because they would be unable to clear their accounts of all the bad debt they have accumulated, This group is the most powerful in terms of assets and their ability to control culture, and is working hardest to push the world into a devastating crisis because their future entirely depends upon it.
Also not surprisingly, while those within the UK-Rothschild ‘Octopus’ Deep State do everything in their power to bring the US and Russia to war with each other, they plan to remain on the sidelines should they manage to provoke a conflict sufficiently catastrophic to hide their misdeeds.
You should put together an article on this topic, use specific details, facts and sources. This comment has none, though it is interesting.
Send it to Saker for publication.
It would be interesting if it holds up with flesh on the bones.
Most of the information here has been gleaned from the work of Andrei Fursov, via multiple excellent videos with English subs found on Youtube. I regret not speaking Russian because I am certain he has the best understanding of the various Deep States involved in the struggle. You can’t lose spending an afternoon watching his presentations.
On Russian oligarchs and Deep State machinations, John Helmer is also an excellent source. I recommend you google his name plus Sophie Shevradnadze and Dmitry Peskov to read about and watch the hour long interview he recently gave. Also Thierry Meyssan has provided the inspiration for several of the insights in this comment, particularly with regard to Persian and Arab Deep States plus the position of Donald Trump in relation to the Pentagon especially.
A Rockefeller-Koch connection to Russia was found through my own research. The founder of the Koch dynasty worked for the Rockefellers in Russia under Stalin and subsequently wrote a book.
I believe the best way to understand our present circumstances is by knowing who is who amongst oligarchs and various competing Deep States. I have been on this track for several years and I find I am usually able to determine the participants and their objectives very quickly by now.
Re: Helmer & Russian Atlanticists: Let´s see what happens after May 7:
¨The inauguration day of Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled for May 7. This was reported by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, speaking in the State Duma with a report on the activities of the Government over the past six years. “The country chose the President. And on May 7, after the inauguration, the Government will resign under the Constitution,” Medvedev said.¨ [emphasis added]
WHEN VLADIMIR PUTIN COUGHS, THE GRIPPE IS INFECTIOUS – KREMLIN SUCCESSION SHOWDOWN STARTS
GOOD FRIDAY, RESURRECTION SUNDAY – RUSSIA’S NEW WAR CABINET TO BE HEADED BY SERGEI SOBYANIN
On the first reading through your comment it struck me as being the most succinct and accurate description of the world power structure I’ve seen. I suspect the Sovereigntists of US/Russia/China have gained a technological advantage over the Rothschild group, but that is certainly not the only determining factor for where we end up.
“The firing of Rex Tillerson by Donald Trump, achieved only via Twitter after he repeatedly refused to take the hint in other communications, and who was working hard to undermine US power by smashing the capabilities of the US State Department”
In which camp is Tillerson and why was he appointed in the first place?
I am away from home and writing on my phone so I don’t have the sources at hand. Thierry Meyssan has placed Tillerson as an ally of the UK-Rothschild Deep State, going back to his days as head of Exxon, where he essentially ran the foreign policy of Qatar. The dust up between Saudi Arabia and Qatar was a fight between the UK and US-centric Rockefeller-Koch Deep States according to Meyssan. Further one can see by the actions of Tillerson as Sec of State, where he gutted that Dept of many able and irreplacable people, as evidence of his strong desire to weaken US governmental influence, which is often diametrically opposed to the objectives of large corporations such as Exxon. The New Yorker did a very good write up with regards to Tillerson’s tenurr at State. The UK Deep State also wishes to reduce US governmental power and controls the propaganda campaign to make Donald Trump look like a fool, so again we can see how their interests align against Trump.
Positions such as Sec of State or Vice President are determined not by the US President or Congress but through negotiations between competing Deep States. Multiple attempts to quietly remove Tillerson came to nothing because he did not believe he answered to Trump. He was told multiple times by James Kelly that he had to go but repeatedly ignored the requests to step down untill finally Trump did the firing by twitter after he received evidence Tillerson was directly involved in the effort to ignite a war between the US and Russia in Syria, in cooperation with the UK-Rothschild Deep State and expressly against the Presidents wishes who does have the power to fire him in theory at least.
I agree with that assessment. I think Tillerson pretended to be a Rockefellar guy (Exxon-Mobile CEO), but for some unknown reasons switched allegiance later on and thus he was eliminated by Trump.
Also the Rockefeller clan sold most of it’s stake in Exxon-Mobil a few years ago. The Kochs built their business as a seperate entity, and had been enemies of the Rothschild-UK Deep State in the 1930’s and 40’s, I believe, when they tried hard to put the elder founder of the Koch dynasty out of the oil business.
Very interestingly, former CIA Director and prospective Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (I’m not sure if he’s been confirmed yet), is heavily associated to the Kochs. Recall when the heads of the GRU, SVR and FSB came to Washington and met directly with Pompeo (2 of the 3), immediately before the crisis over Tillerson’s firing and subsequent Skirpal affair began. This likely puts Pompeo onside with the sovereignty oriented US-centric camp. I imagine the woman who replaced him at the CIA, who was savaged by Rothschild controlled media, is also an ally of Trump and his backers. Don’t let Pompeo’s smirking claim that the US killed 200 Russians in eastern Syria throw you off. This was also most likely a staged event, setup a few days before when Wagner Group was initially mentioned in alternative media at Moon of Alabama.
we see it similarly
“As with Vladimir Putin in Russia, but for very different reasons, this group seeks to preserve the traditional power of the Nation State.”
What are these very different reasons for VVP wishing to retain power of nation state?
Putin is a patriot with a sense of noblesse oblige. Trump is businessman associated to people like Jeffrey Epstein.
Noblesse_oblige – interesting:
“In ethical discussion, it is sometimes used to summarize a moral economy wherein privilege must be balanced by duty towards those who lack such privilege or who cannot perform such duty. Finally, it has been used recently primarily to refer to public responsibilities of the rich, famous and powerful, notably to provide good examples of behaviour or to exceed minimal standards of decency.”
“There is no need for Russia to accept this pro-rentier economic philosophy that bleeds a country of public revenues. Neoliberals are promoting it not to help Russia, but to bring Russia to its knees.
Essentially, those Russians allied with the West—“Atlanticist Integrationists”— who want Russia to sacrifice its sovereignty to integration with the Western empire are using neoliberal economics to entrap Putin and breach Russia’s control over its own economy that Putin reestablished after the Yeltsin years when Russia was looted by foreign interests.
Despite some success in reducing the power of the oligarchs who arose from the Yeltsin privatizations, the Russian government needs to retain national enterprises as a countervailing economic power. The reason governments operate railways and other basic infrastructure is to lower the cost of living and doing business. The aim of private owners, by contrast, is to raise the prices as high as they can. This is called “rent extraction.” Private owners put up tollbooths to raise the cost of infrastructure services that are being privatized. This is the opposite of what the classical economists meant by “free market.”
There is talk of a deal being made with the oligarchs. The oligarchs will buy ownership in the Russian state companies with money they have stashed abroad from previous privatizations, and get another “deal of the century” when Russia’s economy recovers by enough to enable more excessive gains to be made.”
For discussion with reference to that quote, Is Putin now just a victim of the Atlanticist Integrationists (that he seems to have almost magically beaten after Yeltsin) or is he not really Noblesse_oblige after all?
Interesting analysis of the deepstate factions. Agree with Larchmonter, I’d like to see you compose a guest editorial on the subject with links to relevant sources for further reading for all.
I would recommend some mention and geopolitical framework including how the deep state operational wings fit in. The intelligence agencies CIA, MI5,6, Mossad, military propaganda ops, paramilitary contractors carry out the black projects, clandestine subversion, psyops for the deepstate entities.
The Vatican Jesuits and Black pope also have a role.
Mafia, drug cartels, slave trafficking also part of the footsoldiers and money laundering, which ends up in offshore accounts.
BIS, IMF, World Bank and Rothschild central banks are the blood that animates these beasts.
World held in mental hostage by a deepstate-owned media.
I stray afield…
Anyway, great insightful analysis.
Saker’s articles are magnetrons for thought.
“There is only one segment of the US armed forces which is still fully capable of accomplishing its mission: the US nuclear triad.”
There is no doubt that the Russian nuclear triad is also fully able to accomplish its mission, and likely better than the US’s. Therefore, its nuclear triad cannot be used by the US/Otan as a mean of a aggression. Russia has become indeed the militarily dominant power and should let the world know in a such way that the Empire’s MSM could not hide this fact.
“There is only one segment of the US armed forces which is still fully capable of accomplishing its mission: the US nuclear triad.”
Sorry, that sentence above is just bollocks.
To a person who believes that, I can only suggest to study about military forces and balance.
This sentence is in the Saker’s article. Do you suggest that he doesn’t know what is he is talking about ?
The following sentences in this article:
1. “the US ground forces (Army) are pretty much useless”
2. “the USN surface fleet is now quasi obsolete due to the Russian Kinzhal missile”
3. “the USAF doesn’t seem to be able to operate in an environment with modern Russian surface to air missiles”
are just not true, sorry.
1. The US Army cannot pacify in the long term countries which it occupies, such as Iraq and Afghanistan. That’s a very different thing from being unable to tackle any “meaningful enemy”, especially if that enemy is another Army rather than 4GW insurgent forces
2. The Kinzhal missile may not yet be operational, and above all it’s primarily nothing else than an IRBM: this is NOT an air-breathing hypersonic missile, the likes of which would be much harder to intercept, this one has merely rocket motors. Basically this is an Iskander SRBM whose range is extended when launched from a MiG-31. Well, US cruisers already have defense against IRBMs with the RIM-161 Standard Missile 3, and they provide such defense for the rest of a naval group. Please remark that the plan to install precisely such systems ashore, in Romania and Poland, has been met with strong criticism by Russian government which described it as threat against Russia’s deterrent, which tells volumes about what they think of its performance
3. S-400 air defense systems are generally held in high regard, albeit unproven until now. Even if they are all that they are supposed to be and even more, they are not magical and can definitely not see below the horizon. Now for a low-flying aircraft or cruise missile at 100 meter altitude, the horizon is only some 35 km away. And flying at 50 meters is actually quite possible in war condition, in which case the horizon is only 25 km away. Any S-400 system is vulnerable to a coordinated volley of dozens or why not more than a hundred cruise missiles arriving simultaneously from all directions: it will defeat a number of them, may be many of them with help from shorter range systems such as Pantsyr… but cruise missiles are a dime a dozen for the US which have many thousands of them (by contrast such countries as Russia, France or Britain only have a few hundreds each) so they can plan a large enough volley to knock out at least the radars, then remaining batteries if there are can be picked up by more ammunition from lesser systems
What is definitely true is that defeating the Russian AF and Navy in Syria would need nothing less than a large scale operation from US AF and Navy. Which would succeed, in spite of some losses, but would be a true act of war.
Washington is not going to do that unless they have a vital interest to, and they don’t. Russia would be defeated in Syria, but it would take revenge elsewhere, e.g. by mounting a coordinated attack on one of America’s naval groups to take out its carrier – if they devoted a large amount of their resources to such an endeavour, they would probably succeed. Or they would do something else… I think Russian military leadership can be imaginative, more importantly US leadership most probably agrees and they don’t want to discover how exactly Moscow would react.
There will not be any direct confrontation between US and Russian soldiers over Syria, for the sole and simple reason that it’s nothing vital to Washington, although it is vexing. If it was vital…
Interesting but far too Washington centric.
Since you asked politely, I can’t comment on the Army part, but as a former CRUDES Naval Officer, and current engineer/part-time physicist, you are completely wrong about IRBMs and SM-3. SM-3 works on “legacy” IRBMs that don’t maneuver, in a rather narrow relative velocity band. Saker actually undersold his point … Zircon made surface fleets obsolete, and Kinzhal is overkill. There is no system on earth, except maybe S-500, if you believe the marketing brochure, that has a chance of intercepting Zircon. When you say things like “just an Iskander” you reveal your unfamiliarity with the concept of high-supersonic 3-D maneuvering missiles, and how impossible it is to intercept them. If you knew what our plan was to defeat a Sunburn (SS-N-22) or 3M54 (Sizzler variants) you would laugh your socks off. It involved deception, not interception, and was rather desperate at that.
The reason the RF doesn’t like the “missile defense” stations in Poland and Romania is that they can destroy most ICBMs in their boost phase, when they’re moving very slowly. Super/hypersonic warheads in their terminal phase are a completely different animal. Hope this helps!
Regarding Mach 3 maneuvering supersonic missiles, they can be intercepted right now by French Navy air defense (Aster 30 missile), as real tests have proven. I have to assume that the US, who invested way more resources in such defense, have at least as capable a defense.
Mach 6 – 10 hypersonic warheads won’t be very maneuverable if they are not air-breathing. Lift characteristics will limit terminal maneuvers of Iskander warhead, no matter whether launched from the ground or from a MiG-31 (“Kinzhal” version). Such Kinzhal missiles are too much for present French Navy air defense, they will be managed only by next version Aster 30 Block 1 NT which is under development.
Honestly, given the head start Americans took with ballistic missile defense and the vast amounts of money they invested, I have to assume their SM-3 missile is already able to do what Aster 30 Bl.1 NT will in a few years.
Zircon would be another matter, however it is not yet operational. It’s supposed to be soon. I have to take that info from Russian media with more than a grain of salt. Technological challenges associated with such a missile are really huge. It is not _impossible_ that Russia succeeded in mastering those 15 years ahead of other countries… it just doesn’t look very probable. This, independent of whether one would very much like it to be true, or very much dislike it.
Missile defense stations wouldn’t be able to destroy Russian ICBMs in their boost phase, this for the very good reason that the Earth is round. Most Russian ICBMs are located east of the Urals in Siberia, much too far to be visible even less vulnerable from launch points 2,000 km+ away. A radar located 2,000 km away from launch point won’t see the ICBM before it’s at about 320 km altitude… Moreover, Russian ICBMs would go the Northern way from Siberia, passing nowhere near Romania nor Poland.
You are correct that by the time something is a couple hundred km up it’s moving far too fast to be intercepted cross-range. I have no idea where you get the idea that hypersonic warheads do not have enough lift authority to maneuver unless they are continuously powered. How do you think missiles like Amraam (or AA-11) work? You are misinformed about the Aster family, as well. Aster 30 doesn’t stand a chance against maneuvering incoming. SM-2 Block III is superior in every way, and we didn’t expect it to work that well against Sunburn, for instance. The test against a Coyote drone in 2012 that I think you’re referring to is more representative of Shipwreck SS-N-19, not real 3D maneuvering. And no, there is no plan for Aster 15/30 block 2 or SM-6, or anything else to reliably counter hypersonic maneuvering incoming. And certainly not Kinzhal, lol. A final note, I think you’re fundamentally confusing BMD performance with AA performance. ESSM was expected to have (slightly) more of a chance against SS-N-19/22/Sizzler than an SM-2. SM-3 is totally unsuitable. Simple kinematics, although probably classified details. But hey if you’re French just keep believing Aster is magic and will someday smoke Kinzhals and sleep easy :)
It has been revealed that the French task force had major technical problems (in French):
@Andrew: very professional reply. you wrote pretty much what I had planned to write before I read your comment, but in much more clear language.
I think people are vastly overstating the ability to intercept hypersonic/ballistic missiles which can maneuver in the end flight phase (like all modern Russian missiles) with any kind of kinetic projectile. it’s an essentially impossible task just from an engineering/physics standpoint. now, if you had real combat lasers.. ohwait, Russia supposedly has those too…
I am not sure whether this is true, but they seem desperate.
Further to that link is this one…..
which also puts me in mind of something Trumps said at the end of a press conference with PM Abe:
“We had a very, very severe… fight in Syria recently, a month ago, with our troops and Russian troops. It is very sad but many people died in that fight.”
If true, this would explain why the old dotard frothing at the bit had to be talked down from trying to flatten Syria and kill Russians with his nice new “smart” missiles … and why May is hissing like a feral cat at Putin.
We had a false flag in England and a false flag in Syria. The question is why. To vilify Putin ? To vilify both Russia and Syria ? Is it because ISIS pockets in Syria are constantly taken out by the combined efforts of the Russian Air Force and the Syrian Army ? Every time ISIS pockets are taken, Assad is accused of either bombing civilians or else of gassing them. Then we have Chinese military reports that 200 US special forces have been killed in east Ghouta and 200 British SAS captured. Did the false flags and Trumps missile attack have something to do with this as well ?
The point is that the neocons in the US cannot accept the fact that Assad has not been overthrown, nor the fact that Russia and China are on the rise. This was neither planned nor expected. We now have a dangerous situation where the Neocons might do something very foolish, out of sheer desperation. It’s a well known fact that there are crazies on Wall Street who think that Russia can be defeated by a sneak attack with minimal losses to the US. They obviously believe their own propaganda nonsense, backed by Hollywood theatrics. I trust that there are still some sane people in the Pentagon.
Reports are contradictory when it comes to the planning of the Syrian missile attack. Some state that Trump also wanted to bomb the Russian bases in Syria, but was prevented by Mattis. If true, then there is still some hope that nothing foolish will be done.
However, that limited missile attack against Syria was both a comedy and a sobering punch for the US. Out of 103 missiles fired, 71 were destroyed by the Syrians. This is now an accepted fact. The attack showed how deficient US military high tech is compared to the Russian. The Syrians basically (but not entirely) used updated Soviet missile systems. The Russians did not even bother using their S-300 and S-400 AA systems, as there was no need. They knew the Tomahawks were basically useless, as proven last year when Trump attacked that Syrian airfield.
This attack, from the psychological point of view, should be a sobering wake up call for the Pentagon, for reality to be accepted, namely that Russia cannot be defeated militarily. However, the question is if the Neocons understand this as well.
“Then we have Chinese military reports that 200 US special forces have been killed in east Ghouta and 200 British SAS captured.”
What is the source(s) for this report? Please post the links where this is sourced.
I have serious doubts about this.
It’s like the Chinese special forces in Syria (not!) and the Chinese Navy coming to be with the Russian Navy in the East Med. (not!).
All unsourced fantasies.
So source this hyperbolic rumors, please.
I see the same fairy tales are permeating MOA, too. No sources means it’s Fiction.
One of the links is as follows:
Have you asked yourself why two Russians (analyst and his Chinese-language expert) use non-Russian sources for their “expert” analysis of East Ghouta?
Just to run a few facts by you, I’ve studied China, in many ways, for sixteen years, posted over 4000 times various articles as news aggregation, and suspect I know a little, about 2%, of what one might say is “knowledge about” China and the PLA. I’ve produced some original work on China, also. In other words, I’ve averaged several hours every day researching China for a long time. I have edited four books, a fifth is in progress, that rely on accurate facts pertaining to China, its PLA departments and the State Security Ministries.
But one thing I find amazing is that people believe China has a military group (special forces-military Intel) in Syria that knows better than Russia, Syria, and IRGC.
If a report was “released” via the Chinese, instead of sourcing to the Chinese, I’d tend to think it was real.
Writing that the Chinese are the source of the in country Intel is very difficult for me to accept.
Yevgeny Satanovsky & Maxim Kazanin are teamed up for several years producing clickbate videos.
Sort of like Russian Gordon Chang’s diatribes against China, or Pavel Felgenhauer who reports about Russia for CGTN, China’s global cable TV network. Neither of the later know jackshit but are celebrity talking heads.
I am perfectly willing to accept the facts. I wish they were true. Maybe some truth exists relative to prisoners.
But tying them to Chinese military Intel? I doubt it.
What Satanovsky’s Wiki indicates is he is suffused within the Jewish ethos and his ME expertise is focused on Israel. You would think he would have good IDF and Mossad sources. Or maybe he’s just part of their disinformation network.
Whatever, I still see no one on the ground talking about this matter. Wish it were true.
I believe you are referring to the comment I left on MOA. It is no more correct to say that the reports of British/US deaths in Ghouta are fiction or fairy tales than to say they are true. The Russians and Syrians are not denying or confirming any aspect of this as far as I know, for understandable reasons. Therefore, the truth is unknown at this time. What is known is that coincident with the collapse of the first pocket in Ghouta, there was a strong uptick in Russia-bashing from Washington and London, as B.F. indicates. Yet, the Ghouta campaign appeared unexceptional. I became confused by the sudden spike in Washington blood pressure. It made no sense in view of the many and routine SAA successes in the past year, and the US appearing to concentrate its forces and efforts east of the Euphrates. It was at this time that I found three links discussing Ghouta that mentioned the capture/death of a sizeable number of British/US special forces there. I did not save the first link and could not locate it in a later search. I shared the other two links in comments on the Saker and MOA blogs. In a follow-up comment on the Saker blog, I submitted another link that failed to appear in the posted comment. Perhaps the moderator deleted it, which is fine. By sharing the links, I did not intend to imply that the information was true, nor was I promoting any particular website. I was merely sharing web content I thought others might find interesting if they felt the same confusion I experienced. Certainly, it is plausible that the east Ghouta campaign could have been used by the Russians and Syrians as a cover for a tit-for-tat reprisal for the attack on Russian mercs east of the Euphrates weeks before. Do I know this to be true? No. There may be other explanations for Washington’s high blood pressure, of course (e.g., a chemical attack), but this possibility popped up almost immediately in several places including the radio broadcast in Russia, and it was more reasonable than a chemical attack. Does this make it true? Absolutely not. On the other hand, it is useful to set forth a possibility for others to contemplate. Any possibility can be discarded when presented with additional factual contradictory evidence (e.g., as was done with the alleged chemical attack in Ghouta). So the question remains: were US and British forces trapped in eastern Ghouta, and if so, what happened to them?
Whatever happened in eastern Ghouta, it was important enough to elicit a symbolic strike using 103 tomahawks and cause the departure of a US carrier and battle group from Norfolk Virginia, arriving soon in the eastern Mediterranean, if not already. I agree with Saker, somebody with clout became furious over Ghouta and had to be calmed down or outranked. Just guessing that it was McCain and/or Graham who were enraged, and Mattis talked them down (temporarily).
This brings me to another point, that McCain and Graham act like interim heads of state, and Haley acts like she reports to them. The clearest indications of this are Haley’s constant aggressive and insulting comments against Russia that follow the McCain and Graham line of thinking, disrupting at every turn any rapprochement by Trump with Russia. Her response to the Kudlow confusion comment revealed that Trump has been effectively neutralized. Pompeo and Bolton will keep it that way. No, Haley is not confused. The most hawkish elements of the US power structure are now in control, and Ghouta ignited their fury. We do not have to agree on what happened in Ghouta, but there should be no dispute on the seriousness of the US reaction.
I don’t think the economic model of the anglo-zionists can be said to be “capitalism” unless you specify “state capitalism” or some synonym.
It speaks volumes about the sorry state of the world when we have to credit mad dog Mattis (‘highly likely’ a war criminal: https://law.stanford.edu/press/defense-secretary-nominee-james-mattis-commit-war-crimes-iraq/) and his side-kick Dunford for averting a catastrophe in Syria.
Thierry Meyssan who writes for Al-Watan (Syria) and Voltairenet.org is optimistic about Trump (I on the other hand think Trump is real estate developer out of his depth as president) and says by his actions Trump has managed to force his Atlanticist allies to accept the reality of a bipolar world (US vs RF). Thus we’re back to the days of proxy wars between the West and the USSR. Sergei Lavrov’s interview published on Sputnik (20 Apr) seems to support this view.
In a revealing interview (at least for me as Lavrov touched upon many subjects) Lavrov said, “Speaking about the risk of a military confrontation, I feel absolutely confident in assuming that the militaries will not allow this, and of course neither will President Putin or President Trump.”
Perhaps there’ll be many more ‘clicks’ before the ‘bang’.
This is why I think it more likely that Trump was the voice of moderation. I can’t get my head around “Mad Dog” Mattis being such a man, and I still think Trump truly wanted some kind of rapport with Russia (though probably too late for that now).
It seems that the neocons still rule DC, but it also seems that Trump is doing what he can politically to corral their most insane plans. I’m not sure we’ll ever know the truth, but that makes the most sense to me right now.
Ask yourself this question, if Trump is a war monger, how come the war party hates him?
I think there is much more to the man than the disgracefully dishonest media will ever let you know.
He has all the right enemies, but those enemies are not without teeth, and are doing everything they can to destroy his forever.
I refer readers to Theconservativetreehouse.com where excellent work is being done exposing the deep state to destroy the man first by spying on him and then trying to frame him for crimes they themselves committed. Truly fascinating stuff but very complex.
I was never a Trump fan but many years ago a friend of mine worked for him and said he was a really decent guy who treats the help well.
Read his book, and look at N Korea. It’s all a negotiation tactic. Scare them and then conclude a deal that works for everyone.
I was horrified that he seemed to be duped by the latest Syrian false flag, but he didn’t hit anything. What he did do is scare the living shit out of his allies by threatening to attack Russia and then allowing himself to be talked out of it.
Ask yourself, why did he say “Mission Accomplished “? He didn’t do any damage to Syria or Russia. Maybe the defeat was inflicted on the fools who are walking blindly to war.
Maybe I’m wrong, but my take is that if Hillary had won, we would already be dead.
Don’t withdraw support from our only chance to end this nightmare. He has come out again saying he wants out of Syria. He’s having trouble assembling a Arab force to implement policy. At the same time Russia is moving a river crossing task force into place to cross the Euphrates. Perhaps that’s the force he means.
”Ask yourself this question, if Trump is a war monger, how come the war party hates him?”
The question has merit, and the answer can be found by looking at Weimar Germany and its very belligerent, rabidly anti-Soviet, social democracy — ’the moderate wing of fascism’ according to Stalin’s most appropriate assessment. Like Trump today, they were fully committed to violent, lawless reaction at home and abroad on behalf of Big Business. But whenever there are outright fanatics yearning for similar aims, they are infuriated by what is perceived — in their psychotic minds — as pusillanimity and frills at best and high treason at worst on the part of less insane scum. When the Nazis took power in Germany, quite a few ’Sozis’ were unceremoniously imprisoned as their ”due reward” for services rendered.
So I would say that the answer to your question is that, yes, Trump is a committed warmonger — he is President of the most belligerent, bloodthirsty shit-hole in recorded History not just for giggles — and, yes, he is hated by the same shit-hole’s most violently insane swine and scum for not being a total crackpot.
Saker, First of all excellent take on the situation. Although, I agree with what you said about Marx. He just repeated a very old known fact. Human idiocy has no limits and we never learn from our history and keep on repeating other people’s mistakes or wrong doings.
I would like to add to your last line in your table, that while the West is advocating “Postmodernist secularism” it actually promotes deeply aggressive pseudo religious groups in order to promote chaos enabling them to have “perceived” control of the situation, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Sudan as well as East Africa being perfect examples. In chaos and human misery “We, the 1%’rs” get rich.
Let’s hope that such aspects like National sovereignty aren’t nullified by bankers. Even in a multipolar world the bankers are the driving forces behind conflicts. As long as people aren’t aware about the monetary system and/or interconnections of markets a real multipolar world will continue to be a dream.
Don’t celebrate too soon Saker – ‘Jupiter’ has just announced he is the equal of Putin ‘:
And we all know what a Napoleon Complex in power can lead to..
On the bright side, it seems Micron has at least condescended to’ descend ‘ to Earth ….
Ha… Hell of a ‘con’ job (pls forgive my French) when partial descent is concensual and half-decent looking… condescending.
No consensus amongst the Gods… some are more equal than the usual… non-conformist dissenters.
I understand from my source (SiriusReport, which always sounded extremely trustworthy to me) that the US actually tried to launch a far greater number of missiles than the reported 105, but that Russian tech impeded them from getting even airborne. And this AFTER the adults in the room had made their stance toward the POTUS that he better scale down the attack plan. So, I would assume that Trump really wanted to hit so hard that if successful the terrorists would now have the upper hand again.
It would mean effetively that this POTUS who is so easily manipulated by some Pictures of apparently dead children tends to lean toward the neocrazies.
Unfortunately, this also jibes with Seamour Hearsh’s report on the attack of April 2017. There also Trump was in no way a moderating force.
I assume that with this kind of POTUS things are really complex, and that those fancy Q reports can be dismissed altogether, either as propaganda or wishful thinking. (Anyway, are we talking about Q number 3 or 4 now?)
Trump would have your knees broken and then send a “Get Well” card, flowers and an invitation to a round of golf at Mar-a-Lago where he’d cream you on the golf course and then get you to accept his terms of contract.
He wanted to blow up the SAA AF and damage the government’s central ministries.
Some of that package was attempted, the four air force bases and International airport were fired on.
Yes, that seems accurate
He probably agreed that a direct attempt to murder Assad + family was out of the question. But them government buildings, why not?
It is time to arrange for a military maneuver in the Persian Gulf, simulating the sinking of a “terrorist dhow” near Straights of Hormuz or even better close to Hawar Island (right in between Qatar & Bahrain), with a Khinzal from Tu-160 above Iranian skies or a Kaliber from the Caspian Sea.
The US avoided striking Russian assets in order to preserve the appearance of US military superiority. That ‘superiority’ is predicated on US air superiority. The first time the Russians take out a US aircraft marks the end of that ‘superiority’. Any country with an interest in its own sovereignty will flock to buy Russian air defense systems. The US will be left as an impotent paper tiger.
The Empire is collapsing from the center outward, the center being Great Britain. That nation has long been in process of committing spiritual suicide. The U.S. may be deserting the ship; hence the internal resistance by Mattis et. al. to the Hegemon’s orders. Please check out this article:
very thought provoking essay from Cook. I must check out its references…. F W Engdahl in his excellent books parallels some of the arguments in Cooks essay.
The christian (protestant interpretations ?) are interesting…. Christian spelt deliberately with a small ” c “. (such an abused term which identifies nothing in its self…. )
This UK woman queen is one of the richest women on the planet . Living off the stolen wealth pillaged over 100 s of years …. Also has an amazing art collection and not for public viewing….. and a parasite
The collection is vast,there are no facilities to show all the pictures at once,so they’re rotated on loan
to various gallery’s.
Her wealth is illusory, any attempt to actually liquidate Crown holdings would result in instant nationalization.
Other conspiracy theories center on the City of London Corporation, also wrong completely, it is merely was/is landlord to some very unsavory tenants.
The real power lies elsewhere.
The US moral position has become “might makes right.” It would appear that now Russia and China together have enough might to have a veto on US actions. At least that’s what recent events concerning Syria appear to show.
In terms of “EU solidarity”, there is a big difference between someone standing on the sidelines saying “We’re with you. Solidarity!” and someone who is willing to join a fight and take risks beside you. This last attack had a whole lot of “We’re with you” from the sidelines, but only F-UK were willing to fight alongside the US, and they were militarily insignificant in their capabilities.
It is hard to accurately say what really happened with the “allies” Syria attack. “It appears” is the only phrase I can think to use.
“It appears” the AZ attack was configured to launch at least 300 cruise missiles but they only launched 100 or so. Why? Did more reasonable insane people “win” out or was it just an intimidation to see the Russian response? Or Did Russia jam up the launchers enough so that they missed their window of opportunity and had to abort? Or did they not have a unified command and control as the Russian military seems to say? Ain’t nobody saying nothing about this one and AZ ain’t gonna admit they had 70 plus missiles shot down. So we speculate. And the war machine lies and lies and lies.
And then we have the mysterious Nikki Haley situation. She escalates the sanctions hysteria and then Trump pulls her back and now talk is that she is finished. “It appears” that calmer heads prevail. Or do they? Now “it appears” Trump is “mulling” over additional sanctions for the “future”. Does any of this coincide with the Russian Duma coming up with their own set of sanctions which would cut off titanium exports to the US which would decimate aviation and missile production for the AZ? “It appears so”. The one thing these AZ motherfuckers understand is money. Oh and power. Can’t project no power without no titanium now can we.
Now the Duma fails to follow through on the cut off of titanium saying they won’t do it. “It appears” the Duma is just so nice to these wonderful, humanitarian western killers. “It appears” Russia is weak when they hold all the cards. “It appears” Russia doesn’t pull the trigger when they have the upper hand. Or does it?
So “it appears” to me that the nasty sanctions talk suddenly stops the minute that Russia threatens to cut off the AZ titanium supply which is essential to their war making. Now that is a real gun click isn’t it?
Well, “it appears” we have some kind of pause in the constant bellicose talk and a minor lessing of tensions. For one, me, I am delighted because I don’t think I could survive one more rant from nut case Nikki Haley whose presidential aspirations have just gone up in smoke.
Where I grew up, the “traditional and local” social and cultural model was the Ku Klux Klan. I can’t say I’ve been sorry to see that change.
The good news is that the push-back about how this appears to have been a jihadist false-flag might make it more difficult for the political leaders to pull this same tactic again. Politically, I’d recommend that in the west that people try to push this point as much as possible. About how the FUKUS coalition just acted as the jihadist diplomats at the UN and then acted as the jihadist missile corps in trying to attack Syria. It may not pay immediate benefits, but it should help raise the costs and make a future repeat of this scenario harder if not impossible.
“There is only one segment of the US armed forces which is still fully capable of accomplishing its mission: the US nuclear triad. ”
Maybe. There have been some really disturbing reports recently about the level of incompetence in the American nuclear forces. Years ago there was a Sixty Minutes report about a fraud where substandard parts were used in building these weapons, so some of them may not even .
Also of drug abuse – coke – in one publicised case.
How many more are swept under the radar?
Then there is the transgender insanity – how many other forms of mental illness are being ‘accommodated’ to avoid anti – discrimination suits?
The cover up of rape – not just of women, but men too – can’t do much for morale.
The gaytriarchy is also well – entrenched in the hierarchy. Their hubris is no joke.
What to expect from groups of HIV positive nihilists with their fingers on the button?
It’s actually beyond scary how degraded the US military really is…
I don’t care if someone is homosexual. It gets used as a “wedge” issue to distract people from more important matters. I see the problems in the military as reflecting a problem of leadership.
Godfathers’ agreement: “Putin & Trump will not allow armed confrontation between Russia, U.S. – Lavrov”, as long the Broncos don’t kill Ruskis. The rest is okay.
” #ICYMI: Be reassured, people of Syria- West’s humanitarian missiles are ready to intervene”. WAR IS PEACE.
Nobody survives a nuclear war. Nobody.
Consider. The dinosaurs were once the dominant life forms on the planet, just as the mammals are today. But after a single, disaster–asteroid strike, climate change, pick your poison–not one single species survived.
Whatever wiped out the dinosaurs and devastated the planet for millions of years was NON-NUCLEAR. Consider what might be the outcome of a disaster on the same scale, or larger, but with added planetwide firestorms, radiation, blast, and fallout that will endure, and keep killing, for millions of years.
Nobody survives a nuclear war. Nobody. And nothing.
No body survives is …correct.
2% of the existing nuclear missiles at the ready (15,000) shared around what 7 rogue nations ! is all it takes to wipe this planet “clean”
abolition caucus .com
Dont lets go there
I sincerely thank The Saker, for helping to educate me, with regards to what is happenning in the world, particularly since 2014. I have recently started reading Paul Craig Roberts book, on the same subject, which starts in the same place – the Ukraine – and The West vs Russian relationships.
I have always found The Saker’s term Anglo-Zionist, somewhat offensive, because I am English, and brought up as a Roman Catholic in Lancashire, but even if I had been brought up as a Protestant in the Church of England, I would not recognise what The Saker refers to as Zionist. Whilst I now understand what he means, and currently he may well be correct, the Zionist influence on both American and British institutions, was almost completely unrecognisable, at least until the sinking of The USS Liberty, which so far as I am aware, had absolutely nothing whatsoever with The British, nor English culture.
I am not excusing the history of The British Empire, and some of its funding may in its latter stages had some connections to people like the Rothschild’s, but probably more The Rockerfellers. I do not have a particular problem with Jewish people, but do recognise that most of them came from Russia and Eastern Europe. They were not endemic to England, though Shakespeare did mention them in passing about 500 years ago. I don’t think he was particularly impressed, but he probably mentioned the Russians and Chinese too.
I have no idea what religion if any, Peter Hammill was brought up with. He may well be Jewish for all I know. I simply do not care, but my wife and I are going to see him again in just over 3 hours time, in Central London.
He has a massive worldwide audience, and many people will be travelling long distances to see him.
“Peter Hammill – “Time Heals” – (1978)”
“the Zionist influence on both American and British institutions, was almost completely unrecognisable”
The most bizarre observation in human history.
The pervasive influence exudes from every pore of nearly all relevant institutions. Check the mastheads and staffs, the output, the interlinking and cross-overs, the absolute power centricities of public and private, governments at all levels, corporations, banks, NGOs.
My god, man, you must be kidding.
I have “Checked the mastheads and staffs, the output, the interlinking and cross-overs, the absolute power centricities of public and private, governments at all levels, corporations, banks, NGOs” , and I did not come to the conclusion that The people who came from Eastern Europe, Russia and to the South – The Ukraine, Moldova..and The East ..Kazakstan had any major significant influence on anything since Genghis Khan, told them to kindly leave his country Mongolia. Please.
I mean if you want to talk historically about world powers, these guys have never really been in the game. They just really annoy everyone, and the locals tell them to please go away.
To achieve anything good in the future, you are going to find it really hard, if you have such a poor history.
And The Saker is tarring us English people – with that largely ex-Russian brush. “Zionist.”
It’s not our fault..We sent the religious lunatics to America, The criminals to Australia, and then you Russians sent the people you didn’t particularly like to us in England and the USA…
We asked them where do you want to go now??
Sure us British sent them to the wrong place, we should have sent The Russians and Eastern Europeans back to Russia and Eastern Europe. They didn’t want them and nether did we.
I sincerely apologise to every Semitic person who has ever been born, for the wrong that my Country The UK has done to you.
I am Pro-Semitic, and I want to Free Palestine, for The Palestinians, and the real Semites, some of who’m are authentic Jewish(and numerous other religions too).
I am not going to accept Appartheid.
We should all be able to get on together on an equal basis. There is no master race.
No race or religion is in control, though some of us have tried, and we nearly all came to the conclusion, that its not worth the bother, and even The Americans are about to give up. They are completely useless at it, and have only managed to impoverish most Americans, whilst managing to kill and dismember millions of totally innocent people. They’ve had enough now and are too fat and stupid to fight, and are simply making most of it up.
Tony (English – London)
Tony, please read “The Controversy of Zion” by Douglas Reed, and see if you can’t see a longer term pattern.
I honestly believe that if everybody read this book, including self-identifying Torah-Pharisees-Talmud adherents (jews, this doctrine of this cult, based on firstly on separation from humanity , and secondly on, we should get everything, regardless of all other considerations would be made illegal on the planet, and recognized for what it is, evil; many self-identifying Torah-Pharisees-Talmud adherents (jews, would publicly renounce this association, and the world would be much better off for it.
Also, please see Gilad Atzmons excerpt from testimony, as expert witness on Jewish Identity politics, at “hate crime” trial of Arthur Topham 20151108-20151109
Sourced originally at: http://blog.balder.org/?p=1673
“When we criticise Jewish politics (Israel, Zionism, the Lobby etc’) some Jews are “racially offended” in spite of the fact that race, biology, blood or ethnicity was never mentioned. When we criticise Jewish racism some Jews hide behind the argument that we are criticizing their religion. When we occasionally criticise the religion or some obscene Jewish religious teaching we are quick to learn that Jews are hardly religious anymore (which is true by the way). The meaning of it is simple, yet devastating. The Jewish triangle makes it very difficult, or even impossible to criticise Jewish politics, ideology and racism because the Identity is set as a field with a tri-polar gravity centre. The identity morphs endlessly. The contemporary 3rd category (political) Jew is everywhere and nowhere simultaneously, this is the quantum mechanics that is set to suppress any possible criticism.”
All intelligent, informed retorts, if applicable, welcome.
Dissident X I completely endorse your recommendation of Douglas Reed books.
Once I read The Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion, aghast at the ‘developments’ all around us resembling the exact objectives of these Elders, I then read several of Douglas Reed’s books. There I saw more precisely how The Plan of the Zionists permeates/dominates social engineering/ politics/ economics at the global level.
Not just Europe,UK, USA , Israel but every corner of the Planet is infiltrated.
Babuska. You could be right about every corner of the Planet being infiltrated. A report has come out that a Palestinian rocket expert, member of HAMAS and ‘residing in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia had just been assassinated. The family of the dead man has alleged that he was murdered by MOSSAD.
I can argue that the “New World” vision of papa Bush soured just the moment he started 1st Iraq war. There was, alright, real option for a new world after an epoh ending self-destruction of the SU, but it required some deep thinking way, way ahead with a healthy dose of hubris. It wasn’t done. The US rushed to repeat on the international scene the same strategy that was successful in fulfilling the “manifest destiny”. Huge mistake. Different actors with different capabilities and resources. And we will pay for it for a loong time (if we survive).
Thanks to the Saker for the thoughtful tour of the horizon. While I find it illuminating as I often do with the Saker’s work, I wonder whether his/her position has changed regarding the overwhelming conventional superiority (at least in numbers) of Western-controlled forces, and that Russia would not be able to withstand I prolonged and determined conventional assault unless willing to escalate to stand-off weapons and attack warships, bases–that is going to a full-on war footing.
I would welcome an addendum to this latest analysis clarifying whether that view has significantly changed, but if now, how the earlier view, which I tried to paraphrase above, could serve to refine today’s analysis.
I am guessing that it is more likely for the AngloZioNeoLibCons to at least flirt with a ramp up of conventional conflict to that escalation stage. A conventional, far-off, “controllable” war with Russia now, rather than later, may be exactly the sort of fantasy they might turn to next.
Russia is hoping AngloZioNeoLibCons are flirting with the prospect of implosion as last ditch face saver. Russia is vulnerable at heart.
I notice some early-morning typos in my query (above). What I mean to ask is if the Saker still believes that RF cannot withstand a sustained campaign in Syria by Western-controlled forces without escalating to the use of stand-off weapons to attach high-value assets such as aircraft carriers or US bases. That would likely mean a full-on conventional war on multiple fronts. If this actually (still) represents the Saker’s view, how does this fit with the argument made today–that US forces are not mission capable and the Borg only nuclear weapons can save a losing strategy (assuming I’ve correctly grasped his earlier and his current arguments).
I completely agree with this statement: “Think of it this way: the only credible (real world) means of aggression left to the Empire are nuclear weapons. Many (most?) people don’t realize that (yet), but with each failed conventional attack this reality will become harder and harder to hide.”
What makes this even more frightening is that the neocons seem to think that they can “win” a nuclear war. They bought into the thesis of Lieber and Press (published by Foreign Affairs) that the US has obtained Nuclear Primacy over Russia.
But Lieber and Press, like the rest of the US political and military leaders, have totally ignored the long-term environmental consequences of nuclear war, which will likely doom most people and animals to starvation.
A very good read but outdated. Much has changed since 2006.
Changed for the worst I am afraid …. we are closer than ever to a nuke exchange …. this today is far worse than the cuban missile time…. I lived thru that….
The author steven starr is part of abolition caucus … anti nuke. A large global group of a variety of “nuke”experts who are lobbying for total nuke disarmament.
I follow their many activities at high level but rarely reported in MSM.
You may be interested in the following link on earth penetration nuclear missiles:
Thanks for reminding us of the threat of nuclear war and the ignorance of most US generals who think they can “win” a nuclear war!
The U.S., U.K and France are in the process of getting kicked out of the Levant and Iraq.
The Under Secretary of the U.S. State Dept. said that a U.S. base in Syria was getting ready to be attacked by Russian ‘Mercenaries’, (Chechens from the Russian MoD of course, essentially the same guys who handed Ukraine a defeat in the Donbass). He said the Russian mercenaries tried to attack the base.
On top of that, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces surrounded two U.S. bases in Iraq, one in Tikrit, and one outside Baghdad. The Commander of one of the U.S. bases was given a note indication that it this base is used for an attack on Syria, which happened the day before, they would come under attack. The U.S. base commander called the Iraqi government to intervene, but the problem is, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces answer directly to Mr. Khamenei , the Supreme Guide of the Iranian Revolution and Leader of Iran.
Then you have the IRGC heavily involved deeply in both Syria and Iraq, and lets not forget Lebanon, Hezbollah. Hezbollah also ultimately also heavily involved in Syria, has developed awesome military experience after fighting for 6 years now.
There is of course the Syrian Arab Army, its auxiliaries like the powerful Tiger Forces, Republican Guard et al, all reorganized and through 7 years of real hard core urban and rural combat, have been distilled by now as probably the most effective fighting force in the world,. There is also the NDF et al who are very good.
So, my point is, Trump, Mattis, and co. realized that by setting off a regional war will a sustained aerial campaign, U.S. troops, garrisoned in their little bases, would be wiped out. And an aerial campaign would need to be followed up with ground troops, and they know that the U.S. militaries ground troops would be mince meat for the highly experienced forces of the region who would love to get their hands on American , British , French and especially Israeli Troops.
Even the Iranian Basij forces of Iran condemned the puny strike and said they are ready to be called into action. They number in the millions. The Shia of Iraq, as well as Sunni’s would enter the fray for sure.
All this says there is no way the U.S. and allies could successfully alter the ultimate realization that they are in the process of getting kicked out of the immediate region for good. China already has big plans for the reconstruction of Syria and Iraq.
So, Israel, who is so desperate to start this regional war will have to suck it up and stand down, because should a regional war break out, Israel will be engulfed in fighting resembling the fighting in Syria. Its not immune, and the IDF are lady-boys who are only good at killing unarmed civilians. In fact, should a regional war break out, the very continued existence if Israel is in question.
Syria and her allies a the victors, while the ultimate losers are the U.S. and Israel.
Thanks so much, that explains a lot. I see it as the AngloZios’ usual tactic, ‘we know we can’t defeat you but we’ll destroy us all’ is being challenged. So as usual, they’re ‘Doubling Down’. That’s all they can do.
Metaphorically what the world has looming up next is a “Slaughter of the Innocents” . Certainly there is another shoe to drop– I agree with Saker. These folks will not stop until they are decisively defeated or put howling into cages.
.. The White Helmet Production Agency cynically performed a child abuse skit for world consumption—no wonder they were given a Hollywood prize last year! Then their media accomplices tried to gaslight us all into believing it was “a heroic rescue from a chemical attack”. This is to inculcate us with a mass Munchausen complex so that the madness will continue.
Why not bring the troops home and leave Syria alone? Oh, no, therein lies sanity.
As the black magicians that these folks are, they will double down and come up with something else and probably in time to try to ruin World Cup attendance since this is not at all about Syria any more—it is about Russia and always will be. They do know they have “lost” Syria and are on to the next stage of the Great Game: baiting and harassing Iran.
Turkey, by the way, is trying to repatriate its gold . Maybe the Hegemon will take another shot at Erdogan or make him an offer he cannot refuse. Beware Russia!
Has Centcom ever managed to gain control of all the US special forces operating in the Mid East? That infighting went way underground—nary a peep lately in any media sources I can find.
Humour can sometimes achieve far more than preachng to the choir as it reaches a wider audience:
Don’t worry about US aggression in Syria against Russia. It’s China the hegemon is after. First a trade and economic war (trying to cripple China’s high-tech push) then a hot war using Taiwan as trigger. Trump is dumb. If he is a dumbo with nuclear weapons. He is even more dangerous that what he painted North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un to be. Watch China and US in the Western Pacific!
Tend to agree
Except, not sure that Trump is the dumbo people are taking him for
I thought the biggest recent news story was xi Jinping telling Kim Jong-un to get his sorry arse to Beijing. Yet it barely rated a mention.
Just read in Global Times ‘ With a pending China-US trade war, the US media reported that the Trump administration may release tariffs on another $100 billion of Chinese imports as early as this week. Some media reports said the US may invoke an emergency law to restrict Chinese investment in US high-tech industry, and in the worst scenario, may freeze China-owned assets, including US government debt.’
including US government debt
Wonder what the consequences of that would be. I always wondered why they trusted America with so much money. I have always thought that America would declare war and confiscated all Chinese property.
History shows that innocent people get hurt in the hot war, but war is very profitable for some …..
Yet, if I can think of that then there is no doubt those in power in Beijing thought of that when they started to send shovel-loads of cash to America for ‘safekeeping’.
….. must be be a deeper reason ….. possibly … hope so.
The Chinese fleet in strength in the South China Sea ….
Live fire drills to warn Taiwan
Where is the main game? What IS the main game?
Yes, fighting Russia yields nothing but disaster. But fighting China may reap a very rich haul of loot beginning with the USD1.3 Trillion China invested in US bonds. But seizing those bonds may result in other countries throwing away their US Treasury bonds resulting in hyperinflation in the US. Still China will rely on herself to safeguard her investments in the US, like selling down before the US can declare war or cross the red line decisively in Taiwan. Anyway, China can do without those USD1.3 Trillion US Treasury bonds. In a trade war couple with the gold-backed petrol Yuan, the USD will likely collapse in value together with the US economy.
More important is China’s push for high-tech leadership by 2035 – 7 years from now. That’s why ZTE was banned for 7 years – likely a message to China. That banning of ZTE signaled economic warfare, not just trade war.
But ZTE was very likely a bait for the US and dumb Trump had swallowed the bait.
Obama banned Intel from selling chips to China in order to stymie China’s development of ever faster super computers. Without even pausing, China developed her own chips which is faster and more power efficient by an order of several magnitudes.
China imported USD250B worth of chips per year, much from the US. China likely does not want to be accused of disrupting the only area where the US is still ahead by import substitution. China is all for an interdependent world order.
Now by banning ZTE the US had upset that interdependent world order and China now has the moral upper hand to develop her won chips to fulfill “Make-in-China 2025 high tech vision without being accused of disrupting the world economy.
Keep watch on China’s semi-conductor chip development!
Oops, I mean to say China’s push for high tech leadership by 2025, 7 years from now. Typo error.
Please forgive me if I’m wide of the mark, but the chips you mention Simon, any connection to the Chinese personnel/patent holders on Flight MH 370 that disappeared?
@Babuška. Not sure. But that is a major suspicion. If true, the missing plane may be in Diego Garcia instead of at the bottom of the Indian Ocean. My hunch is that both the Yanks and the Chinese know where the plane is and what happened. But they are not telling for now.
Thank you Simon
It seems to me that everyone is afraid, if not flat-out terrified.
And while humanity is cowering, the ‘terrorists’ advance their agendas.
“Do not be afraid”‘are amongst the most frequent words delivered by Jesus.
The older I become, the more I am tested in my courage. Let us hope, and stand behind and with those who are in positions to expose/defeat the evil-doers.
Yeah, “Fear not” – this phrase is repeated on the Bible 365 times i.e. one for each day of the year.
“Where is the main game? What IS the main game?”
You’ll have to ask Israel. The US has been losing its sovereignty slowly since the Truman days. The Israeli grip became stronger and more apparent after Kennedy’s assassination and was finally solidified during Bush the Younger’s tenures, maybe even earlier.
Nowhere in the world do you see politicians aspiring to be members of the legislative body or holding the highest political office of a sovereign country do two things: Kowtow before a lobby of a foreign power and then paying homage to it by trekking to its land and visiting its most important symbols. In a sovereign country these acts would be considered treason and would be enough to disqualify the aspirant or worse. Nowhere in the world would the general of a sovereign country declare proudly that his troops would be happy to die for a foreign power. They may not mind dying in the course of their country assisting a foreign power, but they do that for the cause of their country.
Israel has no problems with China. In fact they’re good friends. Technologically China is not yet at par with Russia and when push comes to shove, it is military technology that counts as witnessed in China’s imports of Russian military goods and events in Syria last week. Israel’s problem is and will remain Russia, where no political aspirant kowtows to an Israeli lobby and whose politicians are willing to take actions that displease Israel. It is mainly dual-citizen Jewish Neocons that are egging on the subservient US government to start a war with Russia, making many of us start to sweat cold sweat the past week.
So unlike Simon, I think it’s Russia first and China second as far as the US is concerned. That doesn’t mean that there’s no chance of a hot war in the Pacific, what with all the sabre-rattling. But if that were to happen, then it would be the US’s decision alone (whether or not to have a hot war) without any prodding from Israel since from its point of view it will neither win nor lose. In fact the Pacific is the only theatre, I think, where we can see the US acting in a coherent manner and clearly in its own interest.
The Anglo-Yanks are pirates-plunderers-marauders for loot if anything. From Russia, they will get a likely nuclear counter-punch. The costs outweighs the benefits of taking on Russia. With China, they have a better chance of getting more loot than they can ever plunder from Russia. The Chinese are always open to ‘negotiations’ since they have always known that the cost of a war is far more than the cost of appeasing the barbarians. So the Anglo-Yanks expect at least some profitable pickings by confronting China – which they are already getting. The problem is that they can get very very greedy and push too far.
Also, as the Saker wrote in his last post, the China is a “military dwarf” compared to Russia. So the Anglo-Yanks have calculated that they are likely to get away with a lot of loot if they confront China – like during the Opium war.
That’s why China gets bullied and pushed around. The Anglo-Yanks, post Opium wars, had always miscalculated/misinterpreted China’s restraint. This includes the USSR in 1969 when they thought that China is so weak militarily (a “dwarf” as the Saker said), that she would be a push-over militarily!
But if the Anglo-Yanks think this way, they do well to remember what China did to Vietnam in 1979 when it was under the military protection of the USSR. China then kicked the USSR’s butt (Vietnam) and the USSR dared not move.
The US is likely to suffer a similar fate if it push China too far.
The “main game” is Trump is likely willing to sacrifice US interest in Syria in order to pivot to China for more lucrative and easier pickings. What is certain is that Trump cannot afford a two-front war – one in Syria with Russia and one in the west Pacific with China.
But Trump will discover that in a fight with China, the US will collapse economically.
Elijah Magnier wrote what really happened at the last minute. It looks like Putin was once more the grown up and told Trump last minute to earn him about what they were going to trigger.
A few days before Israel had done a run against the T4 base to provoke an Iranian retaliation which didn’t happen. A much larger operation was in the works to hit Hezbollah and Iran in Syria. Thus, Hezbollah, Syria, Iraqi Shiite militias were ready to launch a no hold coordinated attack against Israel, Saudi Arabia, Gulf Emirates and Western bases in Iran.
Putin warned that if this stunt is repeated international relations will be in a state of chaos.
Imagine the chaos in shipping channels, oil Refineries, airports, ports, industry throughout the region? With oil prices potentially going through the roof. Refineries, tank farms and Dimona in Israel going up in smoke? Their miscalculation was that Iran or Hezbollah were NOT going to retaliate against Saudi Arabia, Israel and Gulf Emirates with everything they had in storage, since it was FUKUS doing the bombing and killing.
This was the result: FUKUS decided to limit big time the attack. No firing on Russia and viceversa although it would appear that Russian’s black hole attack subs chased and harassed a British nuclear sub. The British sub didn’t reach the firing position and missed its time window for unloading its ordinance package.
Nikki Haley missed the memo and thought it was her Russophobia business as usual but it wasn’t. Her boss clipped her wings in public for upstaging him. It looks like she has presidential aspirations and the boss resents it.
Lavrov said that Putin and Trump will never allow this kind of episodes to fall into a shooting war between their two respective countries. That could mean the end of our world as we know it.
Putin is invited to White House and viceversa. No one died. Syria is getting S300.
I don’t believe this is Sunni against Shitte. I believe is Wahhabism and opportunistic Zionist land theft attempts against decent people who may be secular, Christian, Druze, alawites, suni and Shiite.
So, are the rumors about Israel true? Some are saying that Bibi ordered the attack the T4 complex in Syria, knowing that it had Rus personnel inside, in an effort to make it seem like US had launched a missile attack, thus the Rus went airborne to attack US, only to have the deconfliction line kick in and save the day.
Might explain why Lavrov said Rus has no longer any moral obligation to refrain from S300s in Syria (and elsewhere?). Is this a sort of no-fly-zone for Israel outside of Bibi-land?
[NATO loses an important Russian supplier of military transport aircraft] L’Otan perd un important fournisseur russe d’avions de transport militaire
Volga-Dnepr to exit An-124 NATO charter agreement
Moscow to Call Time on NATO’s Use of Russian Jumbo Jets
The Democratic National Committee is actually suing Russia (and Trump) for conspiring against Hillary Clinton.
I am not making this up: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-20/democratic-party-sues-russia-trump-wikileaks-conspiring-hurt-hillary-2016-election
In all fairness, a candidate as eminently qualified as Hillary Clinton could not possibly have lost without interference from the Learned Elders of Moscow. However, I don’t think they did it alone. The Illuminati and the Rosicrucians had to be involved as well, with probable assistance from the Templars.
Moderator: You’re being sarcastic, right?
Yes! Although in light of madness such as this lawsuit, it is not always easy to tell.
Yet another ‘the hegemon will prevail in WWIII’ piece of nonsense. I read somewhere else that it was virtually impossible to sink a US aircraft carrier. Use your noggin Einsteins -you don’t have to sink an aircraft carrier, all you have to do is put a dent in the flight deck and it’s game over.
“The US boasts 19 aircraft carriers worldwide”
“US leaders may in fact believe they can remove Russia’s nuclear deterrent with an overwhelming conventional attack backed up by missile defences.”
For the latest in the extremist insanity that is now the USA:
“The Democratic Party filed suit against Russia, WikiLeaks and President Donald Trump’s campaign on Friday, charging that they conspired to disrupt the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign, a court filing showed.”
Do they think they can extradite Putin?
All’s well that ends well. What Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, Bush(s), and Obama achieved by way of evil intentions, Trump is reversing (e.g., Korea, turkey, NATO) by means of (apparent?) incompetence. Let’s count our blessings, and keep swinging that mighty wrecking ball until the Mighty Wurlitzer is destroyed. Hail to the chief!
Unfortunately “the nut case threatening all of us” is the Deep State behind the Empire, and the gun you want to take away is the military, political structure, oligarchs, and brainwashed public, for starters. Pretty hard gun to remove. A revolution is in order, but there is really no cohesive force capable of such. Looks like we are screwed. Prayer is in order.
Thanks for your very clear headed and deep going analysis as usual Saker.
“There is only one segment of the US armed forces which is still fully capable of accomplishing its mission: the US nuclear triad.”
:-) Well, the only reason you can say that and they can think is because it hasn’t been tried. Likely they’ll find the same inadequacy problems in that one too.
How does it help them to “find a doctrine not only for the use of nuclear forces as a deterrent, but to re-conceptualize them as a war-fighting capability (missile defense, micro-nukes, etc?” Russia has already modified their nuclear posture to include “a nuclear attack of any size or type against Russia or a Russian ally will be regarded as a nuclear strike on Russia with all that entails.”
So, they can make baby-nukes but they can’t use them against Russia – or a Russian ally. And Russia already has these “friendship and cooperation agreement” thingies with both China and Iran – military stuff in those things too.
Ackshully, the US making baby-nukes and threatening to use baby-nukes has an “unintended consequences” side-effect …. a whole lot of other countries that have reason to be concerned about unfriendly US glares will be lining up to sign similar friendship agreements with the only other really major nuclear power….
The following States in “red” Generate the MAJOR FALLOUT
According to FEMA
When I was a boy, the Readers Digest had a tale about how the United States lost a nuclear war. The Red Chinese smuggled a bunch of nuclear weapons into the US in containers of fish. They were delivered to various important points around the country, and when the timers clicked to zero, that was all she wrote.
Every day, 16,000 containers come into the US.
Were I Kim Jung Un, I would install several of my new bombs in several containers, with a dead man switch on radio, and ship them to the US. One phone call identifying one container as proof of concept, and he’s ensured his survival. Who knows whether Putin or Xi have done the same? No need to worry about ABMs in Poland.
Then there is this, news today:
“After years of subsidizing the Israeli defense industry, the US is now insisting Tel Aviv spend all the military aid it gets from America on American companies. The Israeli government and hundreds of Israeli companies are scrambling to adjust, with one estimate predicting 20,000 layoffs.”
The missile strike capabilities of the Harry S Truman carrier and its escort vessels are huge. Combined with the missiles it can use from B1 and B2 bombers, add in possibly more British and French forces, then I do not doubt that they have an missile advantage, that can overcome Russian and Syrian defenses.
But I also think that should politicians choose this option, there would be an uproar in respective countries, people do not want another war.
And what will the Russians do ? They have stated bluntly that an attack on their forces is an attack on Russia, and we know what then happens; I do not buy the fake “winnable”, “limited” nuclear war option.
Last man switches off the light.
If that is to happen though, I hope I get to haul the politicians out of the bunkers and hang them all, in ruins suited for the purpose.
Where I live the “warmongering ” in the press has been rather subdued, maybe a reflexion on the legitimacy on the previous strike, clearly there is no taste for war.
Sorry, but even five carrier battle groups and their swarm of missiles and planes would not be enough to overcome the Russian defenses. I covered this in an earlier Saker article comment:
SITREP: US missile attack on Syria – Russian statistics
Krollchem on April 17, 2018 · at 4:03 am UTC
See also this Saker article at Unz Review on the Russian Kh22 and Kh32 ship killer missiles in the comment by FB April 20, 2018 at 9:44 pm GMT • 200 Words
More on the Kh32 ship killer missile:
After the US carrier battle groups are sinking the US will go all out in a nuclear war in which the world will lose. Se my earlier comment in this article on the effects of Nuclear Winter.
And just to make sure that FUKUS doesn’t try for round two the Russians are sending addition ships to the Med.
The Mediterranean is “heating up”! Sudden mission of Russian navy squadron
Agree as usual Mr. Saker.
How do you predict the Future?
Its clear that all we have to do is reach The End.
Everything will be Fine then, and we will have got what we paid for.
”/…/ take away the gun from the nutcase threatening us all with it.”
Taking away the gun from a Pindo ?!? Expect quite a few silly but very violent temper tantrums littered with Constitution this, amendment that from the Exceptionals and Indispensables in return, LOL.
Humour aside, I think the table comparing the civilizational models is 100% spot-on. And it is exactly the total depravity and insanity of the Western (anti-)civilization model which show convincingly what a bunch of deplorables the Western Left amounts to with its post-modern, secular — decadent, in plain language — world outlook. In terms of narcissism, Western Leftists are indistinguishable from Karl Rove and George Soros; the only difference is the formers’ infantilism as opposed to the latters’ power and megalomania.
The American Evil Empire… I mean ….Land of the Free’s greatest weapon is not to be found in its army, navy, or air force. Nor is it located in America’s nuclear arsenal and its world destroying potential.
America’s greatest weapon is its ability to promote deception and deceit that will pervade the human mind on a planetary level.
Andrew Korybko is warning how the United States is now developing a global database for not only monitoring the media but, more ominously, manipulating and molding targeted populations through online media, computerized algorithms, and Artificial Intelligence.
This even includes the deployment of fake “alternative” media sites and individuals, who peddle weaponized pro-American narratives/psyops, even as they posture as a (controlled) opposition.
In fact, it would be a shock if America hasn’t already deployed to a degree this type of social engineering ops–including here on this website, where certain memes promoted by some commentators seem to tacitly serve American imperial interests by diverting blame away from the United States; discrediting alternatives to American unipolar tyranny; or fomenting rhetorical division between Eurasian nations….
“The inevitable combination of the future domestic database with its presumably existing international counterpart will provide the US with untold power in carrying out social engineering operations and influencing online debates through sock puppets and AI algorithms that learn exactly what to say in order to produce desired outcomes.
Not only that, but this global database would also give the US “deep state” all the information it needs to know about which social media influencers to spy on in order to blackmail, discredit, or pay off if they’re unable to effectively counter them through organized troll attacks equipped in advance with weaponized narratives tailor-written by computer programs to appeal to their targeted audience. Taking this proactive scenario even further, it’s entirely possible that fake Alt-Media sites might be set up with fake writers who are nothing more than American intelligence operatives or even just AI who have used the database’s tools to learn what they need to say in order to be as convincing as possible to certain demographics.
The continued development of advanced video software could even see fake life-like faces produced from scratch and made to become Alt-Media superstars in the future, albeit ones who behave as the most effective “controlled opposition” imaginable in cleverly reinforcing pro-American narratives without being too obvious, relying as they would be on the insight attained from high-level AI analysis of the database tool.”
The DHS’ Media Database Could Lead To AI-Driven “Controlled” Alt-Media
American internet companies like Google–which is closely intertwined with the US military–of course will play a central role in this gambit “to wield its unparalleled power over human perception as a political tool in the future, whether it’s to turn citizens against their governments, interfere in election campaigns, or streamline a global unipolar narrative.”
Google’s “RADAR” news robots will complete its Info Monopoly
Furthermore, this article from Strategic Culture argues that the very development of the internet itself (from the US Department of Defense’s Arpanet project in the 1960s) was conceived as a “computerized counter-insurgency tool” to monitor, predict, and control potential disruptive threats like global communism during the Cold War.
Pentagon Capitalism and Silicon Valley: Google’s Drone War Project Shows Big Data’s Military Roots
Today, the internet is weaponized as part of the USA’s Full Spectrum Dominance doctrine, which envisions American domination over land, air, sea, outer space, and cyberspace–and perhaps, one should add–the human mind itself.
Welcome to the American Matrix.
George Orwell’s Big Brother will be a clumsy little brother compared to it.
“How the CIA made Google: Inside the secret network behind mass surveillance, endless war, and Skynet—part 1”
“Why Google made the NSA: Inside the secret network behind mass surveillance, endless war, and Skynet—part 2”
Saker’s table on the two fundamental, mutually exclusive world orders is a great pointed summary of the difference between a truly totalitarian and a pluralistic life order. Here I wish to supplement the table with this extra line:
[Science reactionary expansive]
Science must not be subsumed under “Social & Cultural model”, not least for the sake of its importance. It would be good if everyone realised that those aspects of science that cannot be experimentally proved (e.g. Medicine, Life, Cosmos, Astrophysics, Natural Philosophy), are jealously being managed by the hegemon, which favors a final universe with a Big Bang origin and an abysmal end. A rejuvenated state of mind frolicks in an eternal and unlimited cosmos. It is incompatible with Verdun, Auschwitz and Hiroshima.
I’ve been worried about WW3 breaking out like the rest of the people following the news, but it’s occurred to me, after having a think about the conflicts of the last decade or so, that, unless things go nuclear, then a WW3 won’t happen.
Why? Because NATO nations can’t do a ground war. NATO (and by that I largely mean the US) is only capable of beating a nation into submission when it can establish a large enough proxy force–to do the boots on the ground work, that can be supported by air superiority. Why? Because Americans are sick of stupid wars, and won’t sign up for them anymore. Selling a ground war in the US is impossible.
The inability to commit to a ground war is why the US choked when Russia rolled in to defend South Ossetia, when Russia took Crimea, and when the US-supported mercenaries were slaughtered at Ilovaisk and again at Debaltsevo. It’s why both missile strikes on Syria were merely symbolic and flaccid, and why North Korea was able to stand up to the world’s largest military and force negotiations.
At this point, even selling an air and missile war in America has become impossible.
Some data points.
— Obama wanted to attack Syria. But he did decide to at least kinda-sorta follow the Constitution and get a congressional vote. Meanwhile, the Brit parliament voted against the war, and American members of congress were reporting a massive flood of emails and calls against it. The congressional leaders eventually told Obam he had to pull the measure and there was no war.
— in 2016, Trump campaigned against these wars. He said the regime change wars were stupid, that the Iraq War was a mistake, that NATO was a giant waste of money. He won a surprise upset over the chief warmonger Hillary who was promising an immediate war in Syria and hinting at an eventual war with Russia.
— This time, Trump and the military both knew that they had to launch their attacks without congressional approval. Which tells you that the American people would have again loudly said they were against it. They poll these things very closely.
Not only would Americans not support a ground war, but they don’t even support an air and missile war. And the one thing that is fairly certain about 2020 elections is that the winner will again be an anti-war candidate. They’ll probably also be a liar, but they have to be anti-war to win the votes.
Is it just me or does anyone else think that the recent missile strike against Syria by US/UK/France were supposed to be the beginning of a more intensive effort to oust Assad? That they were supposed to be followed up by something akin to the Libya intervention in 2011 and by now there should be US/UK/French boots on the ground in great numbers heading for Damascus. And the only reason that didn’t happen is their missile failed to hit any military targets, namely the airbases, only the cover story targets, the supposed chemical weapons facilities.
You’re in good company….
Paul Craig Roberts…. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zPakLMV-1k
According to Ankit Panda at the Daily Beast, “According to U.S. government sources with knowledge of the April 14 operation who spoke to The Daily Beast, Syrian air defense crews managed to launch just two interceptor missiles while the coalition strikes were ongoing, both of which failed to strike anything incoming. The sources requested anonymity to discuss the details of a recent military operation.” Someone’s lying
The Russian MOD cleared that question. Those missiles were against airplanes and they failed to shut down the cruise-missiles indeed.
I think the pistol in Saker’s photo should have 5 bullets not one.We can call it the Anglo-Zionist roulette.
It won’t be a full out nuclear war. At one point,every country involved in the war will ask for peace.From one point of view it will look more like world war one than two.
And the peace afterwards will be much worse than the war. It will last for 4 – 5 years and that’s it.
Good by,blue sky,good bye.
We are truly living in perilous times. The sad fact is, at least from my perception, the average American citizen seems to be not aware of this potential danger. As I see it, World War III is already occurring in increments. No one has just, as you stated above in your article, “Each Click Bring US One Step Closer to the Bang”, initiated the “bang’. It reminds me a little of the Peloponnesian War where the major conflict between Sparta and Athens, the Grecian powers, started in small conflicts between less powerful Greco – States. Thank you for your insightful and sharp analysis of the situation. I find it sad that many talented journalist like you are not penetrating the “Mockingbird” mass media that is overwhelming the American public today
I have a new optimism.
The post-modern secularism comprised of countries and peoples who hold moral values and live in virtue will hold out and one day thrive, against the technocratic usary globalism, which is collapsing and will fade into oblivion.
Perhaps half the earth will perish before the final death throes.
Wherein lay my pessimism.
Yet I know the good will not be entirely extingusihed.
It is within the soul of humanity endowed by its creator.
Reading the comments here, there is a general opinion that “we don’t need or want a war”, ” the people won’t agree to wage a huge war”, “with whom want THEY to wage war ? ” . Although I perfectly understand this stance, there is one tiny thing hanging in the air : – will They ask us what we want ? will They tell us what They want and what They gonna do ? In my humble opinion, there are already many plans on the table – those plans are not fixed ones by the way, those plans are changing all the time according to the facts on the ground (so to speak) – if They decide that time is here, action will follow. The postponing of acute action is because the main actors are following the same maps and moves, a great battle of information and counter-information is unfolding, unseen for our eyes. Still, I don’t think that the main actors have made a “deal” under the table just to fool all the peoples on earth, no, the tension is still there, the antagonism is still there, the economic issues are still there and a lot of other essential problems are still there, unsolved. So, the war as a mean of solving political and economic faulty lines will not cease and you know it, don’t let yourselves fell asleep.
” If they decide that time is here, action will follow.” >>
Can’t agree more. We can only discuss and try to create anti-war opinions and things like that. World history of past 5 centuries is more than enough proof that, the global aristocrats-elites-oligarchy have time and again manipulated different kingdoms/countries/nations/ethnic groups into war … How can we forget that “War is a rackette” ? Who other than the oligarchy profiteer from war ?
So, unless and until the hegemonic world order gives way to multipolar world order, possibility of more battles in so many existing fault-lines is very real.
Apparently there are reports of gunfire outside the Saudi palace. Rumours of a coup attempt in progress.
I remember last year that Pepe Escobar and others talked of factions in the Saudi royal family and military that wouldn’t be too happy with MBS. And while he stole a hundred million or so from a bunch of oligarchs, that still left them with billions to finance a coup and probably even stronger grudges against MBS.
Is it a coup attempt or another false flag to put the blame on Iran and start a war ?
The US has accepted that war with Russia is a bad idea, it will now turn to
the project of blocking China’s ‘New Silk Road’.
Rinse ,lather and repeat. Got this one from southfront. Says it all.
I doubt that the Russians will give them the Syrian Arab Republic. To many ex Soviet citizens in the colonial zionist outpost called Israel/occupied Palestine proper pre Balfour.