by Ghassan Kadi for the Saker blog
The security zone America intends to establish in Syria is doomed to fail sooner or later. How can this assertion be made and what can it be based on? Well, two main things really; history and facts on the ground.
America’s seven-decade long post WWII intensive and consecutive military gambles have all failed, and without a single exception. And even though America has learnt a big lesson in Vietnam and went into Iraq more prepared; not only in terms of fire power, but also in terms of media control and manipulation of public opinion, it also failed there. And to think that it also learned from the mistakes of the USSR in Afghanistan and adopted more lethal and effective military tactics that should work, they also failed. So why should an alleged army of 30,000 odd Kurdish YPG fighters with ill-defined American support achieve what much bigger fighting forces couldn’t?
But not only is this army that America is trying to build and establish much less potent than former similar armies, but it is also surrounded by many more opponents.
So let’s get this right. In comparison to what happened in Iraq in 2003 when America invaded, it had over 150,000 troops, state-of-the-art military hardware, a huge fleet of multinational attack ships and huge array of fighter jets and bombers, a bottomless budget and no real Iraqi army nor any resistance in existence. Yet, in no time, an “insurgence” sprouted from nowhere turning life on Iraqi soil into hell for the armies of the coalition. In short, even though Saddam was toppled, the invasion failed abysmally in achieving its full objectives.
Now, with an army of a meagre 30,000 Kurdish troops supported by America, the odds of winning against a coalition of the Syrian Army plus its allies are much less likely, if not impossible.
Some may argue that Kurds are hardened fighters and that they know the terrain very well. Whilst this is true, we need to stop and look at Syria and its allies because they too, at least most of them, are not any less hardened and locally savvy.
And speaking of America’s support, there’s no telling as to what extent it will be; let alone for how long.
Historically again, America has turned its back many times on its allies in similar circumstances, and the Kurds specifically are not strangers to finding themselves on the receiving end of betrayal by many of their former allies; including the Americans.
The obvious allies of Syria are first and foremost Russia without doubt. Russia cannot afford to accept anything short of a sweeping victory of its operation in Syria. But the Russians are a different breed to their “Western partners” who impose their terms and conditions on the allies. The Russians know that they need to juggle other interests in order to make certain that their efforts succeed.
It was easier then for the Russians to round up Iran and Turkey together in confronting Daesh. This part of the Russian role didn’t need too much diplomacy. But now that the defeat of Daesh is a done deal, other once less important issues take centre stage and can tend to make the situation a bit sticky, to put it mildly.
Almost in every mention of Erdogan in all of my previous articles, I have reiterated that he is both an Islamist and a nationalist. He’s been getting away with both for a long time, but perhaps I had a premonition that soon enough, a time will come at which he won’t be able to wear both hats at the same time.
We must remember that Erdogan and Assad will probably never make up. Erdogan has caused so much devastation in Syria and the blood he spilt is still warm. Syrians are not ready or prepared to forgive him even if he pleads on his knees. With that said, Russian diplomacy has narrowed the gap between Turkish and Syrian interests during the war on Daesh phase.
As the opposing forces are poised to enter a new phase; albeit that of negotiations or fighting or both, the anti-American Empire side remains united in seeking total liberation of Syrian territory and the unconditional restoration of Syrian sovereignty. They all seek the withdrawal of the American presence in Syria and are united in regarding this presence as illegal, and it is. They are all against a Syrian federation and the establishment of a Kurdish state. But this is all about what they have in common.
Simply put, this is mainly where their interests diverge:
Firstly, Syria and Iran do not recognise the existence of the state of Israel, but Russia has good relations with Israel. All three parties remain united though, each knowing and accepting the position of the others. This ideological difference may surface once other more pressing matters are resolved, but at the moment, Russia, Syria and Iran agree to disagree on this.
Secondly, Turkey was prepared to sacrifice its former ideological and trade partner Daesh. This became easier as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) turned against its former member Qatar, and with Turkey siding with Qatar, it became easy for Erdogan to turn his back against the GCC-sponsored Daesh. But Erdogan is not prepared to sever ties with the Turkey-Qatar-sponsored Al-Nusra Front.
Erdogan still believes that he can hold on to the Al-Nusra Front; simply because he is an incurable Islamist.
What he cannot see is that his nationalist and Islamist agendas are finally at odds and that he will soon have to choose one or the other.
As the way out of the “War on Syria” became more complex for the original perpetrators, many former allies and foes had to make very costly and embarrassing decisions. Erdogan doesn’t seem to understand that had it not been for Russia and Russian diplomacy, his nose would’ve been rubbed in the dirt a long time ago.
However, time is closing in for Erdogan to choose. He should be counting his blessings and the fact that Russian diplomacy has given him a face-saver not only by accepting his apology for the downing of the Su-24 in Nov 2015, but also in including him and Turkey as a partner in the joint war on Daesh effort, and thereby absolving him from his former affiliations and business deals with it.
In theory, he should be agreeing to any reasonable resolution Russia seeks in Syria, but the incurable Islamist is simply unable to distance himself from the shackles of what comes with this tag.
So back to the diverging interests, it is true and realistic to say that thirdly and perhaps most importantly, the onus is on Russia to find a resolution that can be based on pertinent common interests of Syria, Iran and Turkey, and one that also serves Russian interests.
Erdogan needs to wise up to realise that he will soon have to choose between being a historic partner in a resolution that will be recorded in history as the first of its kind heralding the beginning of the end of the so-called “New World Order” or, alternatively choose to continue to be affiliated with a bunch of greasy bearded head choppers.
He needs to acknowledge that the peace and security of his area, including that of Turkey, is one that is regional and therefore more expansive than his narrow religious, and grossly sectarian, narratives and inclinations. He must accept that the Sunni approach has already been tried, and that it failed.
The time for Erdogan to wear two hats is coming to a close, if it hasn’t already. Nationalistic views do not match with Islamist views, and if Erdogan sees a fissure in his alliance with Russia and Iran in Syria, he ought to look inside his own head and see that his own ideologies are at war with themselves inside his very head.
Russian diplomacy continues to exercise patience with him, but his window of time is closing and closing fast.
As new lines keep getting drawn in the “War on Syria”, the only wildcard and stick in the mud is Turkey’s Erdogan. It’s a karmic trap that Erdogan had inadvertently set for himself. What is interesting here is that whether Erdogan is aware of this or not, his popularity as the Sunni hero has dropped dramatically in the Muslim street after he reconciled with President Putin. Many of his once great admirers referred to him as a traitor and that he has let them down. He cannot restore his lost popularity without making a 180 degree turn on Russia, and even if he does, he will find it very difficult to rally up an overwhelming Sunni sentiment, especially in the wake of the Saudi-Qatari crisis. If he had half a brain, in other words, he must acknowledge that he has nothing to gain by sticking to his support of Al-Nusra, but much to lose. But will he be able to rid himself of his fundamentalist Islamist ambitions and make rational decisions? Only time will tell.
This article needs some clarifications. When it comes to the second US invasion of Iraq, instigated in 2003, it is still not clear what really happened. The Iraqi Army performed much better than is admitted. The US Army had a tough time just taking the Baghdad Airport, let alone the entire country. At the Airport it lost about 600 killed. The fate of the Iraqi Republican Guard, which was the elite, was never publicized. Did it surrender ? Anybody see that ? According to analysts, the US never took more than 33 % of Iraq. As for insurgents appearing after the invasion, are we talking about “insurgents”, or members of the Iraqi Republican Guard ?
When we come to Turkey and Erdogan, the chief problem is psychological and historical. Erdogan, and the Turks, cannot forget the Ottoman empire. They still think they have the right to interfere both in Europe and the Middle East, even making absurd demands to join the EU. They better come down to earth, if possible. Personally I don’t think they can. Back stabbing and double dealing was always a feature of Turkish politics. When that migrant crisis came, both they and ISIS started issuing fake Syrian passports to “refugees”. The Turks even issued travel instructions, advising “refugees” to whom they had to report once they came to Germany. Erdogan even advised Turks in Holland to increase their birth rate, so that they can become a significant political factor in the country. Not a wise policy. Nobody likes imperial overlords. Erdogan better mend his ways. Nobody will tolerate too long his double dealings, not even Russians, who by tradition are patient. It was they who saved him during that attempted coup d’etat, by threatening to use their AA missiles against the conspirators who were trying to shoot his plane down. They even sent combat aircraft. The conspirators backed down. It would not be wise for Erdogan to have the Russians deduce that he is going to cross them in the end.
I am pretty sure, although I do not have the means to talk to V.V. Putin diectly, that Russia is allowing Erdogan to play the bad A$$ in order to bring the Kurds to heel. He may be, or people in his government, complain but he/they know(s) that his mercenaries are doomed and even they can see the end coming. Moving those mercenaries the to Idlib was just a Russian play for time, which was intended or give Syrian Army some breathing space.
So, to make the story short, Erdogan may be playing Putin’s cards, as Putin does not want to look bad in the eyes of Kurds. Kurds, sooner or later will have to realize they are being played, but not before Erdogan makes some minced meat out of few of them. Rusia will be standing by, or play the political card to make the Kurds back their demands off. While the Americans, will have to move out, without Russia directly confronting them. Beautiful play on Putin’s behalf.
To the author, somehow I think that in 2003 the “allied gang” had more than 250,000 men in Iraq.
Regarding your statement:
“This article needs some clarifications. When it comes to the second US invasion of Iraq, instigated in 2003, it is still not clear what really happened. The Iraqi Army performed much better than is admitted. The US Army had a tough time just taking the Baghdad Airport, let alone the entire country. At the Airport it lost about 600 killed. The fate of the Iraqi Republican Guard, which was the elite, was never publicized. Did it surrender? Anybody see that?”
There are rumors about the 2003 battle of Baghdad Airport as:
“Its not clear exactly what date and time this was done. Likely in the range April 6th to 8th, 2003.
The US then apparently counter attacked the Iraqi defenders at the airport, using a single “thing”, which wiped out all resistance. Of course this was not mentioned by the media at all.
The Russians knew the US had used a special weapon in Iraq.
A public accusation from a Russian quasi-official source, that the USA had used a special weapon in Iraq, would have placed the Russian government in a very difficult diplomatic position.
Baghdad Bob was right
So they can use it again if needed and Russian wouldn’t do anything about it.
Who was President of Russia on 2003?
President of Russia (2003) was Vladimir Putin.
If they used it on 2003, then why not to use again if “Needed”? So 30 thousand Kurds troops are more than enough to secure the area after the attack.
There has been lots of speculation that the US used mini nukes in Iraq, notably during the one battle in Fallujah and now also in the airport battle. Whether these were mini atomic blast weapons or mini atomic neutron bombs I don’t know. The Israeli’s apparently also used similar weapons on behalf of Saudi Arabia against the Houthis in Yemen.
A more interesting “thing” is what did the Israeli’s use against the Egyptians in one of their battles. Apparently the Egyptians were left paralyzed in their own tanks and could only watch the Israeli tanks come closer and pass them. The next interesting “thing” is the voice of God weapon used by the Americans against entrenched Iraqis. Apparently the Iraqi soldiers heard their God speaking to them in their heads telling them to surrender after which the Americans marched them into trenches and buried them alive with bulldozers.
But such “tricks” won’t work so well against those with good communications who defend in depth and have nukes to retaliate with.
Mr. Kadi you told us before here at the saker that we need to support the Kurds and their federalization to support SSNP Greater Syria so are they still good or no?
you told us that this is the best thing for Syria, for Assad that it would destroy Turkey into pieces but now the Americans are supporting it, so were you right or wrong and why?
IMO the Kurds don’t much care which “side” they’re supposedly on. They’re on their own side and have never really pretended otherwise. So early in the going they were being attacked by Takfiris and fought back, and anyone who helped them do so was on their “side”. The Russians were not yet involved, so the Americans ended up being the ones helping them.
So OK, now the Americans are “using” them. But that just consists in giving them arms and ammunition and air support with which to grab territory they would have been fairly happy to grab anyway. They probably don’t expect to keep it all, and they’re probably not that surprised that the Americans are now, officially at least, not helping them against the Turks. But in the mean time, they got lots of arms and ammunition and probably some money, and they got a buffer of land they don’t really need that they can trade away in negotiations in hopes of retaining the turf they actually live on. So who’s playing whom, here? They got a bunch of stuff and they never actually fought the Syrian army. If they end up having to face Turkey alone . . . well, that was going to happen anyway, at least this way they have some antitank weapons to do it with.
From the perspective of the Syrian government (not that the Kurds care that much, or really have a reason to), the Kurdish actions during the war have probably on balance been a positive. Sure, it leaves them with some tricky politics . . . but imagine the Kurds had NOT fought ISIS. Think of all that territory ISIS would have had this whole time. Not only would that be a whole bunch more territory for the government to try to take, but ISIS would have been stronger all along, holding more territory and fighting on fewer fronts.
Right now, with the Americans showing their duplicity, would be a good time for some diplomacy from the Russians, Syrians and Hezbollah. I can imagine Hezbollah getting along well with the Syrian Kurds, since they’re essentially fairly similar movements–arising in a war-torn country with a weak central government as a way to independently combat the forces invading that country and create something of a welfare state for the ethnic group it is defending. They have somewhat different ideologies, but not really what I’d call opposed. Indeed, the YPG/J ideology is quite a bit more compatible with Hezbollah’s ideals than with the US ideology. Hezbollah is based ultimately on religion, but in Lebanese politics has advanced a view attempting to transcend sectarianism; it is anything but an “Islamist” movement in the negative sense. But the religious base gives Hezbollah ideals, such as justice and charity. The Kurds have a secular base for their politics; they are socialist/anarchists, very egalitarian, very people-centred. While this is a secular ideology, it is also clearly one with strong ideals. Both are fundamentally different from and opposed to the money-centred amoral ideology of American finance.
I think in the medium term the Kurdish association with the Americans cannot hold. And it would be better for the Syrians et al. to try to find common ground with them than to presume, if the Americans abandon them to the Turks, that they are down and kicking is in order. This article points out the lessons that the Americans have (not) learned from their Imperial quagmires, but these are lessons for everyone. The fundamental one is that it is very hard to defeat armed people defending their homes, and all the more so when there are others ready to fish in the troubled waters of the fight. Thus far it is the Syrians who have been defending their homes from, for the most part, foreign Takfiri quasi-mercenaries. If they go for the Kurds, it is the Kurds who will be defending their homes. On the other hand, if they give the Kurds some regional autonomy they can probably team up with them to keep out the Turks.
One flag doesn’t make a movement but Syrian Arab tribes in US-occupied Syria are probably unhappy over the US putting guns in their hands and asking them to fight for Eretz Kurdistan:
I think the US has underestimated how unpopular they really are
A great read ! Erdogan is a wildcard, but the coming days will show what he is up to. It is understandable he does not want and armed Kurdish force on his borders, and neither does Russia, Syria or Iran for that matter. I think he will get his Al Qaeda terrorists out, then go for the jugular of the Kurds, but only as far as Russia allows. The Syrian Kurds best option is too try and get some kind of autonomy, and then swear allegiance to Syria or Assad.
The American project is dead, if above happens. They will have to get their supplies from Iraq, lets see how long that lasts. Not long.
The US is on the verge of suckering the Turks into a war against Syria using the Kurds as bait. As a bonus they are hoping to trap Russia in the same war, not just Iran and Syria. Russia will most likely decline. Iran and Hezbollah may have less choice.
The US and NATO have wanted Erdoğan to invade Syria from the get go. Erdogan has generally resisted this trap (the providing of Turkish cannon fodder for a war against Syria and its allies). Erdogan would prefer that NATO and the US join it, as well. Not going to happen.
Israel and the US will watch as Turkey and its Al Qaeda allies, and Syria, possibly Iran and Hezbolah, weaken themselves in a debilitating war. They may even support both sides ala the Iran-Iraq war.
“War against Syria”?????
A war against American proxy forces who are trying to split off a seperate state from Syrian national territory in no way applies a “war against Syria”. Especially since the actual Syrian government has firmly expressed its intention many times to end this war with all of Syria unified under its legitimate government.
If anything, this might lead Assad and Erdogon towards closer ties as the Syrians appreciate some help in trying to knock down a seperatist movement that wants to divide Syria. And I can’t see either Russia or Iran opposing that goal.
It occurs to me that perhaps the reason Putin has annouced the wind-down of Russian force in Syria might be to allow Turkey, Syria and Iran to deal with this attempt to carve off a piece of Syria. They can now do so without the tensions of a superpower escalation that accompany Russian action directly against American proxies. Perhaps this is more of the excellent Russian diplomacy at work, and we are only now seeing this as Erdogon announces that he’s firmly joining the Syrian + Iran alliance in attacking those who want to divide Syria?
The population of Afrin is primarily Arab not Kurdish. The US benefits from a Turkish invasion of Syria where the Syrians must defend. Afrin does not threaten Turkey. The Kurds are irrelevant. A Turkish Syrian war is what the US needs to keep the pot boiling and prevent the unification of Syria, indeed encourge its split between The Kurds in the east, a Turkish supported Al Qaeda Idlib, and and whatever territory the Turks can grab.
Saker: You write that the Americans are “not-agreement-capable,” but are the Turks “agreement capable” in their dealings with the Russians.
The Turkish elites are hoping that Russia, Syria, and Iran are too distracted to notice Turkish expansionism in northeastern Africa:
“Russia cannot afford to accept anything short of a sweeping victory of its operation in Syria.”
It would appear that Mr. Putin does not agree, since he’s already had his “Mission Accomplished” moment and announced that Russia’s role in the conflict will be reduced now that ISIS is defeated.
And I’m having a hard time thinking about any reason why ‘anything short of a sweeping victory’ is an existensial threat to Russia.
Yes, I’m a jaded American who’s heard his entire lifetime being told how anything less than a sweeping victory in Vietnam, Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc, etc, etc is a threat to the American way of life. I didn’t believe a word of it, ever. Thus, this sentence caught my eye and made me ask “Why?”
Russia has an air force base and a naval base in Syria. It is enlarging the naval base. It has signed a contract with Assad for his military to stay. Putin never really withdrew his military from Syria. He just rotated them.
“America’s seven-decade long post WWII intensive and consecutive military gambles have all failed . . .”
America hasn’t left an occupied zone in 50 years. They continue to embed social engineering programs everywhere, getting people hooked on hollywood/sports, vaccines, western education, and killing their babies. The entire post-soviet space is a Russophobia factory. People from all over the Baltics and Black sea are sent to Toronto and New York to learn how to further hate Russia. You call this failure? Russians have been laughing a little too much at the anglo-americans these last few years. It’s only the last laugh that matters.
“the invasion [of Iraq] failed abysmally in achieving its full objectives.”
How do you know? Liberals never have clear objectives to begin with. That’s what makes them libtards — they advance with retard strength: stupid, bungling, progression. What they want is more room to move, more stuff to control, to smash, another forest to cut down, another pile of people to plug up with drugs. More space makes more to steal. This is not Rome. It certainly isn’t Konstantinople. Ghassan Kadi speaks English and prefers to. That’s Americas goal. You speak the language, it’s easier for them to con you, to fill you up with stuff.
“a meager 30,000 Kurdish troops supported by America . . . the odds of winning against a coalition of the Syrian Army plus its allies are much less likely”
Does such a coalition exist? Who is willing to fight the official American proxy?
“Syrians are not ready or prepared to forgive Erdogan even if he pleads on his knees.”
Yet they’re ready to forgive Washington and London? Jeez!
“In theory, he should be agreeing to any reasonable resolution Russia seeks in Syria”
Officially, Russia’s seeks to remind “the World” (the bulk of which is dominated by America) America is on Syrian territory illegally. I hope that’s not the resolution you refer to.
“He cannot restore his lost popularity without making a 180 degree turn on Russia, and even if he does, he will find it very difficult to rally up an overwhelming Sunni sentiment, especially in the wake of the Saudi-Qatari crisis. . . he must acknowledge that he has nothing to gain by sticking to his support of Al-Nusra, but much to lose.”
He loses either way, so he should dump the Sunnis, who have already dumped him, and side with Russia? He should join Russia in telling the sacks of shit under Mattis’ eyes that America occupies Syria illegally. In the meantime, kurtisan is established and a separatist movement in south-east turkey is emboldened.
Alternatively, Turkey should take the lead in the alliance, going forward. Maybe Turkish interests take priority, if they’re willing to resign from Nato completely, for example.
Stopped reading at Libtards….
Typical US derogatory non respectful talk of other people. And you wonder why we hate you beyond belief ?
I knew you were a Sunstein sayanim thought control agent after reading just two comments. Go police facebook.. or somethin’, you state sponsered troll.
Please close down this conversation. Mod
You lost me when you begin the old worn out liberals/libtard rant for that’s the old divide and conquer tactic,for they are only half of the coin, the other half is of course the conservative/republican/ neo-con half where most of the wealth resides, where the dreams of the pipeline and gas/oil lines reside..
I must confess I have a reluctant admiration for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Deluded, yes, but gifted with an all but infallible political instinct which allows him to make fun of the buggered EU cesspit in general and the latter’s political “leadership” in particular. Essentially, he told the spokespeople of Western imperialism to put their money where their mouth is: “You have put considerable effort in the project of ‘liberating’ Syria. As a result, I have got a significant number of Syrian people here in Turkey who’d much appreciate to move ‘elsewhere’. My kind assistance in your Syrian misadventure calls for some favour in return. Done deal, messieurs-dames?”.
It must be quite wonderful (in the eyes of Erdogan) when the utter dolt and invertebrate a.k.a. Greece’s Alexis Tsipras forever kneels upon the floor while his EU superiors wreak deliberate havoc upon his country — with a little help from Turkey.
Plenty here to show, you have not got an honest clue what happens in Europe. “buggered EU cesspit” what ! Where ? As far as I know this is neither buggered nor a cesspit, it is doing pretty well thank you. Except we hopefully got rid of the deluded British xenophobes. Greece’s troubles are Greece’s own fault, the list is longer than a bad year, failing to collect tax, pension age at 45, corruption, no youth programmes, no investments, no property taxes, etc, etc.
You should visit Europe, or watch Michael Moore’s “Where to invade next”. You know nothing Jon Snow!
Nu tager vi det rolig, dreng :-D
Writing from Sweden, I’m most certainly in a position to pass judgment especially on the buggered cesspit which the You’re_a_peon Union has transformed Sweden into. Similarly to Greece, the citizenry is partially to blame for this, as it gave consent to EU membership through a plebiscite back in the 1990s (meaning that the Elites here didn’t have to repeat the exercise to obtain the desired outcome). Society is breaking down, most visibly so with regard to Sweden’s public transportation, schools, the housing market, and all this accompanied by soaring street violence. The Ziomedia here is promoting extreme Russophobia and Swedish NATO membership. And this is being orchestrated by the very same people who promoted our EU membership as well.
To get back to Erdogan, I think he is doing a better job as Head of State than any of the mental and moral midgets passing for statesmen in the EU; sorry.
Skægt jeg bor også i Sverige og er dansk.
Sweden is not breaking down in the part I live, but maybe it is a coincidence. I dont read Swedish news, it rubbish and so is TV. So I have a difficulty in seeing the same reality. But I guess it depends on eyes then.
Ok lets go in detail:
The housing market where I live is doing OK. It has become rather expensive for a first time buyer as prices has continuously gone up since 2000. From 2000 to now it is times 4.That is hardly the EUs fault, but the Swedish central bank unwilling to raise the interest. But yes first time buyers have a hard time.
The bus lines where I live, and use them, now have wifi, power and lcd displays and are brand new. The school my kids go to is brand new and so is the connected swim hall. The kids are fed at school, BTW. I have a 1000 fiber Internet at 428 SKR = 50 $. Street violence happens, but is dismal and the same in Copenhagen. There many immigrants but they rarely cause trouble. That is mostly drunk Swedes.
So I cant see it.
Regarding the EU: Were it not for that we would have been run over by American Imperialism in its most brutal form. As the British soon will experience. Greece had it coming, their problems are their own making entirely, and anyway things are looking brighter. The have learned to earn before spending. Pity , but then they can elect competent politicians.
So myself as a declared socialist and believer in the Scandinavian Way, what we are doing here is so much better than anyplace on Earth, and I have seen a lot, a big lot of places and non have the conditions we have.
But Erdogan is between the hammer and the rock now. He must choose sides. I f he chooses the US, well he will have a lot of angry people suddenly. If he chooses Russia, he will eventually get friendly neighbors, good trade relations, OBOR, trade deals with the EU and more.
“Regarding the EU: Were it not for that we would have been run over by American Imperialism in its most brutal form. As the British soon will experience.”
Sounds interesting. Obama didn’t seem to realize that when he told the Brits to vote “Remain”. But if there is any substance to the hinted claim that Now, are the Brits gonna get it, then that makes the EU a provider of “benign protection”, forever accompanied by the usual niceties of deception and coercion: As long as you stay loyal to Cosa Nostra, we are going to solemnly protect you but if not, then watch your step carefully.
The degeneracy of the EU is no secret to Erdogan; he is capitalizing on it with malicious glee, and he’s pretty much on target.
His political future is nonexistent in any choice he present himself. If they choose to ally with Syria they would have to eventually lower themselves in the rung because their war crimes guilt well if they seriously want the alliance anyway other than that choosing to be run by west who makes no secret of their ill intentions to Turkish people and muslims in general.
So between resigning his seat to a more redeemable person of Syrian alliance interest or seeing his country descent into total chaos in the western design.
Erdogan has his own version of the NWO folks called the N.O.O. ( New Ottoman Order) folks who actually align with the NWO folks from time to time ( like the assassination of the Russian ambassador and the smuggling of arms to Islamist anti Assad groups in Syria).
He also has an internal problem of cohesion with the Turkish Kurds sitting in the area of the headwaters of major midEast river systems. What will make up his mind will be the pragmatic issues of how to keep Turkey whole because if the USA manages to fragment Syria–well then, Turkey will follow with endless ethnic conflict in SW and Eastern Turkey.
And that will suit the angloZionist interests perfectly. If the N. and S Korea can sit down to talk…well, Turkey and Syria can sit down to talk and the sooner the better for both.
Good read. I disagree with your terminology however. You say that Erdogan is an islamist and nationalist. He is pro-religion (as in doesn’t promote secularism), but I disagree with calling him an islamist.
A true religious individual who sticks with god’s just law and fears him doesn’t betray or backstab or put his personal political agenda at the number 1 place. What he did in syria was pure personal agenda, there is nothing islamist with supporting armed opposition that are getting paid by uncle sam and friends in dollar$ to destabilize fellow muslim countries.
t’s all personal political agenda, supporting an opposition to remain friends with another country is pure politics. Politics where the suffering of people and devastation caused doesn’t matter aslong the objective is acquired.
I might’ve misunderstood what you meant with islamist. Since there are no just muslim leaders left, best we got are partially deluded individuals, so the true meaning of that word is probably not applicable in current times.
The word ‘Islamist’ is a widely misused word just like ‘wahhabi’ and ‘jihadis’.
I don’t know who coined these words but whoever did so, must surely have been from the west.
I think the west refers to the muslims who want to establish an Islamic state as ‘Islamists’.
Wahhab is derived from the last name of the Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab (this guy doesn’t need intro). Wahhab is also one of the names of God and it is not right for muslims to spoil God’s name by referring to a group of muslims as Wahhabis. I think the Arabs didn’t coin the term Wahhabis, it was again the west which did it and it became popular among the non-Arab muslims particularly the muslims of Indian sub-continent.
And there is a better word to Jihadis in Arabic and it’s ‘mujahid’.
Thanks Ghassan for the article.
Russia, once again, is playing it cool.
With even the American’s deceptively watered-down official line on the YPG (Kurds), clearly the primary objective of their primary regional ally, Turkey’s official line (via FM Mevlut Cavusoglu) about the U.S. “plan to establish a 30,000-strong border guard force composed of US-backed, Kurdish-dominated forces in northwest Syria”, ““irreversibly harms US-Turkey ties”” https://southfront.org/foreign-minister-turkish-military-operation-against-kurdish-militias-cannot-be-limited-to-only-afrin/
Turkey, the largest military in NATO, after the U.S.A. must certainly be going to leave NATO!
Wow! Not bad, Vlad!
The U.S. (and it’s regional ally(ies) will attempt a second, move determined move to get Erdogan/change regime in Turkey; what else can they do?
Let us assume that Erdogan survives; he is wily; his best path is to gobble his own goop, and maintain military cooperation with Syria, to play a key part in the military component of undermining the Kurds in Syria, strengthen his position vis-a-vis the Syrian Kurds and ongoing stability in Turkey.
I am hoping that your analysis about the inability of the Americans to succeed in their refocused Syrian project, i.e. empower the Kurds to an independent nationlet, to impede Iranian/Syria/Lebanese alignment/supply lines, in resisting the expansionist Zionist political entity occupying the Palestinian lands.
Make no mistake, the very top priority of the psychophant leadership on the Zionist political entity, and their worldwide collective elite, will be the establishment of this Kurdish statelet; they will exert all of their ‘hidden hand’ and media-driven strong-arming of western governments and citizens to push this agenda.
It is a very dangerous situation, dealing with such extremist psychos, controlling nuclear weapons and delusionally empowered to employ them.
When Putin said that Russia would be back with force not yet seen, if new antagonists entered the fray, we can be relatively sure that he will make good on it. Seeing as how the Americans are training surviving jihadists, and preparing new nomenclature for them (as well as media very-friendly branding programs), I think we can be comparatively confident in a new/extended insurgency, defacto supporting the “Kurdish” forces.
If Ergogan thinks Kurds on the border is bad, he must know that their regional ally will be much, much worse!
As for the mid-term, who is Erdogan going to ally with?
The U.S.A. will be unsalvageable as a potential ally.
Possibly the E.U. could… but there has been so much bad blood, the ever-taunting carrot of entrance into the E.U. (was never, ever going to happen), and Turkey doesn’t need them anyways.
The Turks are clever industrious people, and the Eurasian integration strategy of China/Russia presents so many opportunities for Turkey to get in at the ground level, profit from building the infrastructure, make on-the-ground associations, and do VERY well as integration proceeds.
All he really needs, above a curb on Kurdish nationalism is a minimalist non-aggression agreement with whatever government eventually emerges in Syria.
He still might be able to wear the two hats, looking east and north, to the centre of Asia.
not sure if this is Pentagon double speak or not
“The Pentagon has said it is not creating a “new army” or conventional “border guard force” along the Turkish border and assured that the United States would be “completely transparent” with Ankara about its plan to train border protection forces comprised of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria.
“The US continues to train local security forces in Syria. The training is designed to enhance security for displaced persons returning to their devastated communities,” the statement read. “We are keenly aware of the security concerns of Turkey, our coalition partner and NATO ally. Turkey’s security concerns are legitimate.””
I am in a doubt whether Kurdish forces have ever fought with DAESH, or it was only a movie war? Why would two American allies kill each other?
They have fought with Daesh. Alongside with ISIS. They are doing it now.
ISIS is the attacking force. Kurds are playing defense of the East oil and agriculture and water resources. US has been saving and moving ISIS among the Kurds positions for months. So, they are with ISIS. Allied. Teamed up.
In the battle for Raqqa, the Kurds barely confronted them. It was like a ballet if you saw the videos of the early fighting. Choreographed. Then allowed ISIS passage time and again, so they could go to Deir ez Zor, with the Kurds in the East and US advisers to battle Syrians.
I agree with you totally. It’s all fake show. All you have to do is see the map of Syria today, where did ISIS all of a sudden appear from? There is a Greek saying: “manolis became a changed man, although he only changed his clothes”. The same goes for SDF, ISIS, HTS and all other “guns for hire” Today we wear green, tomorrow we wear black.
Creating a land locked force is clearly not viable. Given Trump’s intellegence and track record of success, there must be another explanation. The most obvious alternative:
Putin, Trump, and indirectly Assad are working together to create a Win-Win-Win situation.
Trump is creating the U.S. proxy force to empower Putin & Assad. Once everything is in place, the legitimate government of Syria will order *all* uninvited foreign and foreign proxy forces out of the country. The U.S. and its proxies, Turkey and its proxies, Iran and its proxies.
WIN #1– Assad gets a stable country where the only major foreign force is a benign Russian one.
WIN #2 — Putin gets to stabilize and possibly expand Russian operations out of Tartus.
WIN #3 — Trump humiliates the Soros/Neocon establishment by endorsing a peaceful conclusion to the mess created by Obama/Bush.
Russia and the U.S. are natural allies, or at least strategic partners. I keep hoping the Mueller investigation will implode so so this can come to fruition. But, the Soros establishment is still keeping it alive.
Fantasy. It leaves out the geopolitical strategy of Israel and the coordination of the neoccons to forment a war against Iran.
If only you were onto something believable.
The concept doesn’t leave out the NeoLibs. It ejects them from the GOP, so they can join Soros in the Globalist DNC. The core NeoLib belief is “regime change”. The Trump administration has no interest in “regime change”. He is more than willing to jettison Obama’s NeoLibs like George Will.
Actually A123 is onto something, much more than most, whose heads bounce between mainstream and alt media propaganda narratives.
Without speaking for him, A123 seems to understand all moves by all ‘partners’ appear fully coordinated and further, you must elevate your perspective to make sense of what is otherwise senseless.
If this were a real standoff between Zionists and Team Russia it would’ve broken down long ago. Each mafia advances it’s own interests, and yes, some gangsters are worse than others, but it does always go the way of making them richer, while the lumpen gets thumped.
Btw, did you know, Gazprom, 20% owned by British Petroleum, is the #1 exploiter of oil in Iraqi Kurdistan and therefore the #1 taxpayer to the CIA ‘managed’ Kurdish Regional Authority?
Uh huh. Facts can sure put the kaibosh on geopoltical soap operetas, don’t ya think?
I appreciate your love for El Trumpo…
But seriously, stop thinking about Trump being some brilliant genius who infiltrated the White House to take down the swamp from within. In every comment section, I always find this one comment about Trump being completely independent of the neo-con influence and teaming up with Putin to sabotage the AZ Empire’s every move. And stop crediting every tactical move of the grand chess master Putin partly to Trump.
Please don’t team up a man who plays ludo and snake n ladders with a man who checkmates the Empire in their every move.
Erdoğan may have a karmic trap but Turkey does not. So, Turkey is leaving Atlantic by gigantic steps, turning her face towards East, new civilisation for her national unity and integrity.
I doubt that. I am even doubtful that Turkey will ever leave NATO. Turkey is economically dependent on Europe and the west. Turkey has always been at the forefront of destroying Arab Muslim countries at the behest of NATO, whether it’s political climate was secular Kemalist or is ‘Islamic’ Erdoganist. Turkey has allowed it’s soil to be used to wreck destruction in the middle east. From aerial bombardments in Libya to supporting ISIS in Syria, resulting in millions of displaced and thousands dead, Turkey has done it all. To it’s credit Turkey claims to host the largest number of refugees in the world. But spreading destruction in the refugees’ homeland would not have burdened the Turks and other NATO countries with the refugees in the first place. I doubt that most of the Europe and west ever liked Turkey. As for the Turks and Turkey, who am I to judge? I leave the matter to God.
Allah is the best of judges, the fairest of them
Russia needs to keep Turkish power in check:
With due respect, If I got it correct then, the writer is saying that Erdogan’s approach is the Sunni approach and it failed. These words have a vapor of secterianism to me.
Also, the writer says that Mr. Erdogan was the Hero of sunnis and it changed after He reconciled with Russia!!
May be then Mr.Kadyrov and his supporters are also upset about the reconciliation.
Hi Ghassan, Yeah its so easy to forget the recent past – when Erdogan is on Syria’s and Russia’s side I like him and go YEAH – when he spits in EU’s collective faces – but yeah about the spilled blood that’s still warm…
He’s a dirty nasty player – no doubt about it – one of many – Putin must know that Erdogan would stab him if it suited his short term goal. What a bunch of thieves Putin has to work with eh ? Trump – Erdogan – Netyanhu – and on and on – Sisi – MBS – omg are there any good players out there ? Assad is a great hero – Hassan Nasrallah – and who else ?
Turkey could be a new ottoman empire in the not too distant future as its economic, demographic & military power will overpower neighbouring states.
1) They have great (economic, cultural, political) influence in the Balkan euro-Muslim (puppet) states of Albania, Kosovo, & Bosnia.
2) In the future, a new Albanian state could also be formed in parts of the Republic of Macedonia.
3) They still occupy 40% of Northern Cyprus.
4) Large Turkish & Muslim populations live in Bulgarian & Greek Thrace. A future insurrection and secession of the Muslim population is possible.
All the other Balkan countries are in disarray. In addition, there is no other strong Arab state to counter Turkey ( Iraq and Syria were devastated by western military interventions and embargoes)
Yugoslavia was a powerful sovereign socialist State and now is composed of weak small states that are absorbed by EU and NATO.
Bulgaria & Romania have not recovered from the fall of communism. They suffer from large population losses and their militaries are a small fraction of the pre-1989 era.
Greece has entered the 10th year of economic and societal collapse. It’s military will no longer be able to face the Turkish one as the budget has rapidly shrunk.
Greek economic and industrial assets are bought cheaply by foreign corporations (including Turkish ones), returning the country to a state of neocolonialism.
The Greek population is also aging rapidly (due to emigration & low births & the economic insecurity) and will be 5 mil at 2050 ( compared to 120 Mil of Turkeys). In addition, 2-3 million foreign and mainly Muslim illegal migrants are now in Greece ( and most of them have entered through Turkey with the migrant flows continuing ).
Greece will become irrelevant and will definitely be culturally muslimized in the not so far future.
The only hope is that Russia will be able gain influence in the Balkans , but it is sure that western powers will do anything to stop Russia
Bottom line is Russia NEEDS a base in Syria, a WW2 type oppenheimer/truman zio/wasp combination in the US will think twice, if a Russian nuclear retaliation on israel is only a few hundred miles away. The chucktodd,wolfblitzer,rachelmadcow MSM cannot ratchet up another slav apocalypse this time, knowing their fellow (removed language,MOD) in israel will be wiped out too.This is a strategic issue at the heart of Russian defence, as it does not involve spending trillions to keep up with a US satan that has a limitless pocket. They will not fall into that trap again.
I think the Author is somewhat harsh on Turkey’s role. What seems to be unravelling is that there is tacit approval from Russia and Syria on Turkey dismembering the Zio US occupation of northern Syria using the Kurds as proxies. One only needs to look at a map of pre and post ISIS to see the hegemon objectives all along. Destroying a functioning state, dividing it along ethnic, sectarian regions and ultimately forging an artificial construct known as Kurdistan. This manufactured entity serves Zio US military bases and key natural resources. It maintains a base for further antagonism towards the regime, as well as an existential threat to Turkey and Iran’s sovereignty. Neither of the neighbouring states will allow this state of affairs. Serg Lavrov has recently stated that the Americans are trying to set up alternative governments (Kurdish statelet) and this is in violation of their declared objective of fighting ISIS and not redrawing territorial boundaries. There will no doubt be concerns about this operation but looking strategically and long term the allies in their war against Zio US belligerency have little choice to work together even if behind the scenes. Noises will be made but the strategy seems highly plausible.
I think you are right. This idea of tacit approval is interesting…. I read that the YPG branch in Afrin has said in a statement, “…that it held both Ankara and Moscow accountable for the “massacres that will be committed in Afrin”. I notice too that Turkey has also spoken of Syria’s territorial integrity, presumably by continually emphasising territorial integrity any idea of a potential Kurdistan is scuppered. The “new” US foreign policy, proudly heralded a few days ago by Matis is already a head-on car crash quickly turning into a carambolage. I notice that the MSM is very quiet on what all this means for the NATO strategy of bras dessus, bras dessous!
Turkish planes bomb Syrian Kurdish targets as Ankara-backed rebels enter Afrin (VIDEOS)
https://tinyurl.com/y73tr5t3 Published time: 20 Jan, 2018 14:20 Edited time: 20 Jan, 2018 17:31
Turkish jet fighters hit the People’s Protection Units (YPG) positions at the Syrian side of the border at Hassa in Hatay near the Syria border on January 20, 2018 © Bulent Kilic
Damascus Resolutely Condemns Turkish Military Operation in Afrin https://tinyurl.com/yasaoj75 Middle East 21:08 20.01.2018(updated 21:25)
Earlier on Saturday, Ankara has officially kicked off a military operation code named “Olive Branch” against Kurdish forces in the Syrian city of Afrin, and claimed it had notified the Syrian government about it. The Syrian side has reportedly denied receiving any notification.
Syria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Turkey has infringed on the country’s sovereignty.
“Syria resolutely condemns Turkish aggression on Afrin, which is an integral part of Syria’s territory,” the Foreign Ministry said.
On January 20, the Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said that the country’s jets have bombed YPG, PYD targets in the Syrian city of Afrin.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirmed the beginning of the military operation in Afrin.
RT: Missiles hit Turkish town near Syrian border, casualties reported
Published time: 21 Jan, 2018 13:49 https://tinyurl.com/y79e7yyx
The Turkish border town of Reyhanli has been hit by missiles launched from Syria, Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag said. The town’s mayor claimed there were dozens of people injured and at least one killed.
Russian MoD accuses US of stirring up tensions in northern Syria with arms supplies
US troops cannot stay in Syria without permission of Damascus – Moscow
Where you can find membership of Erdogans Freemasonary.
So…hes neither an islamist nor a nationalist. You/we were deceived this time In fact he is a globalist working together with both Israel and the USA to establish their desired Global governance
He is playing his part in that game to achieve it.