By Jorge Vilches for the Saker Blog
Thirty two years ago Germans enthusiastically took down the Berlin wall. Now, captured by cunning Anglo-Saxon global elites, Germans are helping other European “useful idiots” to erect a much higher and thicker wall to cut themselves off from Russia leading them into a war economy. But as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has warned… “the approach has clearly failed — sanctions have backfired — and our car now has 4 four flat tires” … Question: vehicles don´t carry more than 2 spare tires on them, do they? So, one quick and innocent way to explain such unfathomable European miscalculation is to assume the EU leadership is immersed in a deep hypnotic trance and just blindly following US-UK instructions under Stoltenberg-Johnson war-mongering policies. Per “The Telegraph” Ref #1 https://www.rt.com/news/559682-johnson-uk-nato-ukriaine Ref #2 https://www.rt.com/news/559785-orban-eu-gas-war-economy/
The supply lines that up to 2022 successfully linked Europe and Russia took decades of very hard work to develop. This now means that almost all of such over-abundant contracts necessarily have no effective substitute because (a) no other vendors have such high quality at low price plus decades of vetting and proven experience + (b) the un-replaceable short freight distance and shipping time from nearby Russia. So, by definition, both (a) + (b) mean that today no equivalent supply lines could ever be found no matter how much Europe tried simply because it would be either too soon or too far …and always too hard and too pricey. So short cuts will be taken and corners rounded-off…. Been there, done that, got the T-shirt. The impact of the above cannot be overstated though as the now-broken Euro-Russian supply lines were essential for the Just-In-Time strategy that Europe and world markets still require and cannot wait years to develop and iron out. Logistics 101: proven experience and performance with excellent price plus quick delivery from nearby sources cannot be substituted fast enough, or possibly ever. On purpose, Europe´s worst enemies couldn´t have inflicted worse harm than what a US-UK mesmerized Europe (what else ?) is doing to itself.
So EU sanctions are now cutting off dozens of key and highly varied Russian produce without which Europe as we know it will cease to exist. This involves foodstuffs, minerals of every sort, energy re oil & gas & coal & refined products thereof, etc., etc., plus key technologies and products from space rocket engines to nuclear fuels. Even Roscosmos announced that Russia will withdraw from the International Space Station (ISS) project with the West after 2024 while by that time with an orbital station of its own. At any rate, the new European vendor problems for hundreds of products include each and every aspect of sales & procurement, sourcing & logistics, negotiations, pricing, contract terms, payment, banking procedures, sampling and testing, delivery pathway coordination, additional trucking, roads, vessels and inland waterways for shut down pipeline delivery, on-the-fly solutions for new problems, railroads, loading and unloading yards, ports, process alignment & upgrade, synchronization, scheduling, building and adapting key infrastructure, insurance, guarantees, new administrative matters, buffer storage, vendor vetting, multiple regulatory compliance, etc., etc. So the most efficient and swift Euro-Russian trade routines have today turned into logistical and management nightmares. Europe now and for the near future — in most unfavorable circumstances — needs to run unexpected risks to re-do all such hard work in a hurry and for every banned Russian product, not just coal & oil & nat-gas. And it is not a “plug & play” process either. It takes time. Tons of changes have to be made even after finding a trustworthy vendor. It is costly, cumbersome, and prone to project creep & fatigue. All fully unnecessary and chaotic.
No country in the EU is anywhere ready for any of the above, let alone all of Europe at the very same time with the very same deadline. Furthermore, an impaired Germany would mean a very different Europe something which at this late stage cannot be avoided even if Germans wanted to get their feet wet in a hurry. Jim Rickards now says that “Almost everything you heard about the war in Ukraine from U.S. media over the course of March, April, and May was a lie.” Furthermore, the Western news regarding the impact of the Ukraine war contained very few truths that can confuse just as much. Per Rickards “The economies of the U.S. and the EU are in or very near to recession. Inflation is out of control in the West and commodity shortages will lead quickly to food shortages and more empty shelves in supermarkets… as economic sanctions have backfired ”. And now labor unions add fuel to the fire fully knowing they have the leverage to worsen inflation which is the hottest political topic nowadays. So they now demand better working conditions “with protests turning up at all spots in the global supply chain, including railways, trucking, warehouses, and ports…” At any rate, today Russia is taking full control and will probably retain for itself what up until 2022 were Ukraine´s best assets. That includes its industrial core, its enormously large and specialized natural resources, a most fertile land reminiscent of the Argentine Pampas, and all the ports and the major rivers with Russian territory unscathed. No wonder Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán wants plain “out” of the current European non-strategy despite that Euroclear is raking in dozens of millions in profits from seized Russian bank accounts.
Ref #3 https://www.rt.com/russia/558846-us-uk-eu-sanctions/
Ref #4 https://news.antiwar.com/2022/07/24/hungarys-orban-says-us-russia-peace-talks-needed-to-end-ukraine-war/
Ref #5 https://dailyreckoning.com/needless-death-and-misery/
Ref #6 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/labor-has-leverage-protesting-supply-chain-workers-threaten-worsen-worlds-inflation-crisis
Ref #7 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-24/world-s-key-workers-threaten-to-hit-economy-where-it-will-hurt?sref=6uww027M
Ref #8 https://www.rt.com/business/559647-eurozone-profits-frozen-russian-assets/
Ref #9 https://www.rt.com/russia/559598-jens-stoltenberg-calls-allies-pay/
add a low Rhine…
The Rhine River directly affects trade and industrial logistics of several key European countries namely, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, France, and the Netherlands while indirectly affecting many others or, in some cases, all the others. In particular, the über-important German inland transportation system – and therefore its entire supply chains network – depends upon normal levels of Rhine River waters. Because it´s not only a matter of sourcing the right quality, quantity and price of any produce. It is just as important to receive it Just-In-Time at process destinations such as refineries or power plants as explained later. Simultaneously, all European stakeholders are competing with each other tooth and nail struggling to find, contract and retain exactly the same resources in order to solve the same unexpected problems all at once and by the same date. And it´s not only coal or oil or natural gas — and many other raw materials in and of themselves — but also for the means required to transport, deliver and process all of them.
So everybody and his sister would now in Europe be modifying the same things at the same time with the same resources by the same date. For example, looking for the very first – and certainly bad – resource, namely trucking fleets of every size and type and humongous amounts of EU-certified drivers thereof. This additional heavy truck traffic would require upgrading newer roads and building new ones. Also, the different processes required for these different commodities also require all-around modifications at refineries, new-feedstock power plants, petrochemical plants, etc., etc., etc. Furthermore, there were no plans for any of this nor for the abundant technical human resources required and/or vetted management staff. Managerially speaking, this is not a contingency. It is a fully unexpected European-wide revolution with a terribly demanding time frame and critical failures as the most probable result. This involves strategic value-chain upstream items with EU captive consumers cascading into multiple supply chain failures thru lack of nat-gas, rare earths, inert gases, potash, sulfur, uranium, palladium, vanadium, cobalt, coke, titanium, nickel, lithium, plastics, glass, ceramics, pharmaceuticals, ships, inks, airplanes, polymers, medical and industrial gases, sealing rings & membranes, power transmission, transformer and lube oils, neon gas for microchip etching, etc., etc.
Thousands of yet unknown people are needed to execute all of these projects with yet to be defined job descriptions, yet to be interviewed, hired, trained, teams put together, deployed, etc. Many oldies will be called back from retirement
For many good reasons – mostly obvious — roads & trucks many times cannot compete with seaborne or internal water-ways freight either by volumes shipped or final destination delivery requirements. Furthermore, the supply lines/production system is already set up in a given way and any change introduced to previous logistics is fully unforeseen. For instance, high-load storage facilities and high-consuming processing plants, refineries, power stations and the like are conveniently located for vessel access or pipelines or railways, not trucks. So, now with everyone scrambling for ultra-hard-to-find solutions, EU products will require higher transportation costs by, for instance, having to replace sintering ores with concentrates or pellets. And it is unlikely for higher costs to be absorbed by the market under current conditions of falling demand. So profit margins will get yet narrower – or negative – as already under heavy pressure from high energy prices and labor costs in an inflationary vicious cycle. Sooner or later this leads to either very high inflation, or recession… or even depression. Also, a tremendous food problem has arisen as a consequence of the EU sanctions, involving final produce and intermediate outcomes such as fertilizers which in turn affect yields.
EU sanctions have prevented operations with Russian grain, including insurance and the admission of Russian ships to foreign ports and entry of foreign ships to Russian ports. Russia cannot solve that nor contribute to solving that in any way, shape, or form. Only the EU can solve that problem. What Russia can and will do is to develop its economy by counting on reliable partners instead of Western countries not willing or able to comply with the agreed terms of trade. No (Russian) gas no fertilizers, less (Russian) gas less fertilizers for everyone including Third World economies.
Higher oil prices – or no oil – mean more expensive distillates such as diesel oil required for farming food produce.
In view of less Russian gas, BASF has slashed ammonia production which is an essential component for fertilizers.
Ref #10 https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/basf-prepares-slash-ammonia-production-germany-amid-worsening-natgas-crunch
Up until Jan. 2022, coal (“brown” coal, the dirtiest of them all) was only responsible for 33% of power generation in Germany… but not anymore (more on that later). Let alone the case of oil & gas with ultra simplified door-to-door delivery of excellent, cheap products through quick and clean pipelines. BTW, the case of now badly-needed coal is probably the worst of all, as its complete phase-out was planned for 2030 but now fully reverted with de-commissioned coal-fired power stations most probably returning as Germany´s first line energy suppliers. Less Russian natural gas means less heating, less hot water, less power and less fertilizer among other important things. And the EU cannot print natural gas or Rubles.
“ Despite the aggressive Western sanctions… Russia has been very restrained as far as counter-measures are concerned. So after loudly saying that the EU wants nothing to do with Russian energy or Russian pipelines, the EU should hardly be upset if Russia is tired of laboring not to give them what they asked for, an economic divorce. The problem is Europe is now upset that it’s getting what it acted like it wanted.” – Yves Smith – “Naked Capitalism”
Ref # 11 https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/07/the-end-of-cheap-russian-gas-turning-the-lights-out-in-europe.html
On a recent press conference Russia´s President Vladimir Putin explained that the EU energy security problem is definetly not Russia nor Gazprom. Very simply put: with long winters, less sun, low winds, and EU banks that will not finance fossil fuels investments, plus insurance companies that do not insure them, and local governments that do not allocate land plots for new projects, so then pipelines are not built… while demand keeps growing. Then for political reasons the Ukraine government shuts down a pipeline station. Then the Siemens-Canada problem as, by contract, turbines require regular maintenance and repairs. In sum, the EU has shut-down — on its own — two Russian pipeline routes as Ukraine and Poland effectively cut off the Yamal-Europe pipeline. Ukraine overtly, Poland by refusing to pay under the new gas for roubles scheme. The EU has also sanctioned one turbine while not commissioning North Stream 2, thus completely tying down Gazprom´s hands. Furthermore, the documentation that Gazprom received from Canada and Siemens did not respond to the turbine sanctions-waiver questions. Also, Gazprom is unable to fully use another route as Ukraine has been rejecting its transit applications. In sum, Europe does not have a strategy. Add to that the shut-down of nuclear power stations. And as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said, Russia no longer cares to relate to Europe – or the West at large — as it is not “agreement-capable”.
As if all of the above were not enough, many EU members now have to deploy the DE-conversion from natural gas and the RE-conversion into polluting coal. This back-to-coal ´solution´ is (a) very dirty and against Europe´s Green Plan plus other climate pledges and regulations (b) ultra-expensive (c) a major industrial, logistical and social upheaval that would not make it by this coming winter soon knocking on the European doors, and probably not even for next winter 2023-2024. This separate – yet overlapping – set of major madhouse back-to-coal projects also imply enormous logistics risks and major modifications and tight schedules all around, bids, bidders, contract oversight, certification, commissioning, etc., etc., etc for which nobody involved is prepared, neither regulators, nor vendors, nor consultants or engineering firms, nor end users, nor households, nor labor unions, nor the industry at large.
Renewables have various serious problems including their variable power generation limitations. For example, in low wind or low sun seasons such as 2021-2022 which Europe suffers today. Renewables also have very poor optics – “not in my back yard” — plus impact upon bird life with unavoidable and undesirable consequences. And although there is more to be said, let´s conclude with the all-important de-commissioning problem in view of their rather shortish life-span. Furthermore — in order to see the light of day — manufacture of renewables requires humongous loads of nat-gas, oil, coal, minerals and commodities, all of them necessarily sourced in Russia not anywhere else. Unless the problem were to be compounded and worsened on purpose something quite in fashion today in Europe. For instance, manufacturing of wind turbines requires thousands of tons of nickel and rare earth minerals. Also, any such large structures and components thereof are to be transported to temporary and final destinations — and erected — with Russian fossil-powered equipment. Such is also required for the inevitable regular maintenance and end-of-life decommissioning. Solar photovoltaic energy requires humongous amounts of silver beyond belief, a process which also consumes (Russian) fossil fuels in enormous quantities, including the manufacture of the mining equipment required. Furthermore, as soon as renewables in large quantities are added to any electrical grid, costs go up – not down — as they have to be backstopped by fossil-fueled thermal plants that today should also run on Russian fuels. Please understand and accept that the more renewables added, the more natural gas that is needed. People do not accept rolling brown-outs let alone black-outs, so fossil fuel backstops are mandatory. With current existing technologies, promoting fully counter-productive and subsidized renewables expansion as Germany has and continues to do is reckless. EV lithium batteries require lithium mining which in turn has a whole new set of problems to be resolved Ref #12 https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/lighting-gas-under-european-feet-how-politicians-journalists-get-energy-so-wrong
hypnotized toilet paper
Per “Zeit On-Line” the new European hygiene status is now ready to deploy forces into rolling brown-out territory.
Is this another bad result of the hypnotic spell ? Ref #13 https://www.rt.com/business/559698-germans-warned-toilet-paper-shortage/
Russian sanctions would leave British pubs without fish’n’chips.
Ref # 14 https://www.rt.com/news/559748-fish-chips-uk-sanctions/
Rachel Marsden at RT has summarized it very precisely as follows: “The conflict in Ukraine risks creating the ultimate nightmare for Western elites: an alternative group of allies over which the West has no control, but with the capacity to offer opportunities that are competitive with what their own governments or countries are offering… Western elites are doubling down in Ukraine to save the world order that protects their own selfish interests, thinking that it’s the way to prevent a parallel option from emerging. It’s as simple as that. And they don’t care if it’s the average citizen who has to pay the price”. Ref #15 https://www.rt.com/russia/558490-liberal-world-order-explained/
By banning Russian produce, the EU will bring the European sourcing matrix down on its knees, something which by now has already dawned on the average European also realizing that – at the very best and if not corrupted — their political class is just a bunch of ignorant fools. With these ´Russian sanctions´ EU politicians have unnecessarily set Europe up for hundreds of overlapping, cross-borders, gargantuan projects impossible to fulfill simultaneously, with absurd sequencing and scheduling coordination, plus peremptory timing limitations and deadlines, with countless of well- synchronized engineering specialties and very risky, highly demanding logistics, plus overwhelming legal, political, and environmental aspects. Accordingly, this glorious mismanagement in a decisive decade has the whole EU economy fully at risk with the obvious additional pain of potentially making non-performing rushed and poorly designed modifications everywhere.
Furthermore, Europe will spend a fortune it cannot afford while probably deploying soon-to-fail and trouble full reconversion projects ending up with many half-finished facilities that will not be anywhere ready on time, or ever.
The EU strategy regarding Russian sanctions and arming Ukraine has failed miserably as Europeans are being un-relentlessly ashamed with EU leaders despicably cheating on them and everyone else among other things per non-compliance of the Minsk Accords. Ukraine cannot ever come anywhere close to winning this war, corruption is everywhere rampant and the more weapons Ukraine receives from the West the longer their war will last and the larger territory that Ukraine will lose.
Massive migrations to Club Med countries (mostly PIGS) are highly probable even starting during 2022
Per The Guardian, “…Come October, it’s going to get horrific, truly horrific…a scale beyond what we can deal with”.
Ref #15 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/19/energy-chiefs-fear-40-of-britons-could-fall-into-fuel-poverty-in-truly-horrific-winter
additional IMPORTANT references
To the victor go the spoils but they all lose don’t they? How much dirt can they have on all these bronze turd age mofos to get them all to do this? Perhaps a hidden super weapon somewhere. I trunk with a golem?
The unreality of watching people I used to think were highly intelligent people slit their own litsos is mind boggling.
Another tour de force from Jorge Vilches.
Thank you quasi_verbatim for you favorable comment. Cordially Jorge
The failure of the western plan to use the Ukrainian Nazis for an attempt against Russia has shown that it was all a lie supported by the fear of confronting the white masters of the world.
After the Ukraine show, now the world is a little freer while the white countries have the task of facing their own population.
Please have in mind that:
– not all the white peoples are in The Golden Billion (incl. us Serbs, who were bombed by this Billion in 1999, and we don’t intend to apologize for theirs’ sins)
– common Whites have nothing to do with the anglo-zionistic leaders, neither share any profit with them; on the contrary – they have been loosers for the last 50 yrs
There are no Ukrainean Nazist the country was utterly ruined by the nazis în WWII. There is a 2-3% of male population born with a reduced amount of emphathy for other people (autistic to various degree and psychopats). These people can perceive the world mainly în conflictual terms and are so easy to influence with war propaganda and to be sent înto first line of combat. They are also unable to sustain a prolonged campaign being just sick people and victims în their own right.
Who will speak for the Germans (and Europeans at large) ?
In early 1944, Generalfeldmarschall Erwin Rommel had a brief chance to tour Germany, now that had lost in North Africa and was waiting for a certain Austrian corporal to make up his mind regarding his role in an imminent Allied invasion.
The scale of destruction and hopelessness Rommel saw in city after city hardened his conviction that it was ‘time to talk politics’ with the West, at least to salvage what was left of a functioning German society before the Russian juggernaut could sweep everything in its path.
During a tightly secured conference at the Berghof, Rommel took his chance demanded to ‘speak for the German people ‘. From that statement, it was obvious that top Nazi leaders had absolutely no compunction in destroying the common man as long as they got to postpone their suicides by a few more months.
“Herr feldmarschall, will you exit the room now?” the Austrian corporal demanded. I don’t remember the exact date of this meeting, but I feel it mirrors Germany’s (and Europe’s) current predicament. Granted, there could be someone or some VIPs among the elite sensible enough to attempt a rational approach to this whole mess, that I’m not aware of.
Maybe things will become clearer when the snow starts falling.
(I have been watching from the tropics, in Nairobi, Kenya.)
Thanks for your thoroughly researched pieces; they form part of my main course alongside tantalizing dishes from A.Martyanov, The Saker, Larch445, A.A.H, Lone Wolf, Auslander, and everyone else who contributes to make this wonderful space the best place to be in these exciting times.
Thanks Lewinski_1944 I try to research as much as possible and reference the best I can. Cordially Jorge
Thank you Lewinski_ 1944- I would also appreciate if you can sent link about this conf.in the Berghof.I did read lots of book about history of Germany 1919-1945..never heard about it.
If I am going down, everybody else should also go down, as I have not done these errors alone. You have also committed failures and errors, and therefore we stand shoulder to shoulder when we go down together.
We are all standing in the same mud together in solidarity and no one must escape it, no one..
We are all doomed including you, and you know it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWxDGQm2hKk
And yes, I certainly agree that physical hardship to the absolute extremely extreme that Europeans are about to suffer will instantly focus their minds as you say … ” Maybe things will become clearer when the snow starts falling…”… For sure they will because it will affect EVER-THING in Europa… And when that time comes (soon, trust me) I wonder what their reaction will be and how Russia would react… Cordially Jorge
Poor Europe. Poor Germany.
Even though it’s true that their own fate or worse is what they were trying to inflict on Russia. And then on China. Childish, cruel, and stupid. Still, it’s sad.
Another outstanding article from Jorge. I don’t know where he finds the time to do so many of this quality.
«In early 1944, Generalfeldmarschall Erwin Rommel had a brief chance to tour Germany, […] The scale of destruction and hopelessness Rommel saw in city after city hardened his conviction that it was ‘time to talk politics’ with the West»
That was comically stupid for such an intelligent military person:
* Well before early 1944 everybody in the Axis military elite was absolutely certain of complete defeat (the japanese military elite were certain of defeat, even if not absolutely, before attacking Pearl Harbour). Indeed they were certain as soon as the USA actively entered the war. In early 1944 the USA had already been manufacturing, for example, 300,000 fighter planes per year.
* Obviously the Allies military elites were also absolutely certain of victory, as they were steamrolling the Axis on all fronts, and had no reason to negotiate a political solution, especially because there were immense russian and german losses on the eastern front, and the western allies were presumably very comfortable for the communists and the nazis to kill each other for as long as possible (the eastern front was an early case of proxy war, where the USA supplied the hardware, and the USSR the dead).
Given that and Adolf’s delirious fanaticism, raising the subject of negotiations was really stupid. What could the nazis offer the western allies in exchange for being let off? Nothing. In effect they had bet everything on the USA not entering the war, and like in WW1, they lost the bet.
Funny, not funny
I live in Eurostan
A long the Rhine
Where the future seemed bright
But now we are facing winter
The breed line
And the coldest of nights
Time for the Guillotine
Your analysis here Are invaluable/priceless for all of us on this forum and elsewhere. Please continue.
Kent, you all deserve it. This is home to me, so I try as hard and best I can. Cordially, Jorge
let them eat cake
Really valuable information. We need this here in the US to understand the catastrophe Biden has caused through his criminal regime.
Richard, Biden & Co (really, the deep state) didn’t do this in a vacuum. WEF/Davos have infiltrated governments everywhere, including if not especially, Germany.
If the globalist elite are sweating now, it’s because they know that very soon they will face the wrath of those they intend to depopulate.
Eu’s leaders had a choice. They made their choice. Orban chose wisely. The rest, not so much.
Thanks Richard for saying it. Your opinion matters (much). Cordially Jorge
The European Union committed acts of war against Russia and Russia will attack filling the European Union with revolutions, coups and civil wars. Europe will be the land of the new “Pancho Villa” and “Viva Zapata” for decades and who knows if then the antichrist will arise. What future awaits me…
All the EU countries have been occupied by the US military since the end of WW2 in 1945
Then add in the expansion of NATO, another US controlled military’s expansion to the Russian border to which each EU country contributes 2% of its GDP.
Did you know that when Germany surrendered unconditionally to the Allies in 1945, General Eisenhower ordered the round up of one million men of the Wehrmacht, and imprisoned them in open air camps that were surrounded by barbed wire. They had no shelter, no medical treatment, nor food. Most of them died the following winter.
I read about that recently but at second hand, like in your post above; can you supply a reliable Link?
If your news had been published shortly after the War, my reaction would would have been: “Serves them right!” And the same with dropping nuclear bombs on Japan: “Serves them right!”.
One of the few advantages of growing old is, to learn what an ass one used to be.
“War is the supreme crime because it generates all the other crimes”.
West Europeans under 80 years of age have no conception of real war. They are children playing with fire. But Russia remembers, and resists with caution, because Russia bore the brunt of WW2.
… though the number of deaths in these camps is likely much higher than claimed in these articles.
James Bacque “Other Losses”.
Yes, an estimated 1 million starved and frozen Wehrmacht soldiers that surrendered to the West and Eisenhower, thinking it better to surrender to US forces than the Red Army. The book is “Other Losses,” by the great Canadian journalist, James Bacque. You can probably find a pdf link (I failed) but did download and read the pdf several years ago. Shocking book!
Unfortunately both gentlemen were destroyed by a certain Alba O’Brien(Obregon).
I am sorry but the Irish is there to restore order.
«and Russia will attack filling the European Union with revolutions, coups and civil wars.»
They no longer have the power or intention to do that, I reckon this is a realistic report:
«I began to berate the fake professor soon after. “Why do you not take active measures to prevent this indoctrination and manipulation of the students? I’ve spoken to the students and they all hate Russia and they’re all Liberal. They skip class to protest and their teachers encourage them. Surely, you could stop this?” At this point, the fake professor began to let his guard down, and began explaining to me that Russia does not engage in “active measures.” “You’ve probably noticed that there are plenty of agents of American influence in Russia, at least in the university system,” he began. “But the same cannot be said about Russia abroad. This is because we no longer engage in active measures.” There are no Russian NGOs working in America to promote …. whatever it is that the Russians would like promoted. This is in stark contrast to the US policy of funding Protestant missionaries, separatist leaders, student protests groups, “democracy-building” institutions and funding opposition media. Russia appears to be totally and completely inert and on the defensive in the culture and subversion wars. “America has a brand and ideology that it promotes around the world. People are easily convinced by the power of American advertising and branding to start supporting the American ideology. We, in contrast, have nothing comparable to speak of. During the Soviet Union, we would have people working for us in the governments and cultural institutions of the West because they believed in Marxism or Communism. Now, this is no longer the case.” So, because Russia was unable to sell people an ideology about itself abroad, it now had a dearth of volunteers willing to work with Russia against their own governments, basically.»
“the now-broken Euro-Russian supply lines were essential for the Just-In-Time strategy that Europe and world markets still require and cannot wait years to develop and iron out. Logistics 101: proven experience and performance with excellent price plus quick delivery from nearby sources cannot be substituted fast enough”
And that is just these peace time interruptions i.e those due to “Covid” and “Sanctions”. Imagine what war time interruptions to modern “just in time” supply lines will do.
Sabe jorge, eu me pergunto:
Se eu, um diminuto cidadão do subúrbio provincial de um país do sul global, Rio Grande do sul, Brasil, tenho acesso e leio textos como o seu, que nos dão uma visão do futuro (pelo jeito, nada promissor), como pode pessoas que seriam “líderes” na “grande” Europa agirem da forma como agem. Bom, só pode ser por um dos dois motivos abaixo:
1 – são inacreditavelmente estúpidos mesmo ou
2 – são pessoas malignas que só veem sue próprios umbigos e não ligam o mínimo para o resto da população
Por fim, mais um grande e esclarecedor texto de sua parte. Só me entristeço pelo fato de não conseguir tempo suficiente para ler todas as referências por você citadas.
Abraços do sul global.
You know Jorge, I wonder:
If I, a diminutive citizen of the provincial suburb of a country in the global South, Rio Grande do sul, Brazil, have access to and read texts like yours, which give us a vision of the future (by the way, not promising), How can people who would be “leaders” in “Greater” Europe act the way they do. Well, it can only be for one of the two reasons below:
1-are incredibly stupid or
2-they are evil people who only see their own navels and do not care the least for the rest of the population
Finally, another great and enlightening text from you. I am saddened that I do not have enough time to read all the references you mentioned.
Hugs from the global south.
Marcelo, thank you so much for your comments and considerations as they do matter much to me. I agree, the explanation of what´s going on in Europe at the very least is unfathomable, unexplainable. My concern is that the way things are going this will not end well and violence is rearing its ugly head everywhere, not just at the battlefront. For whatever reasons leaders might play stupid, but people are not. Warm regards and respecfull bear hug to you Marcelo ! Cordially Jorge
PS: Marcelo you do not miss much really by not reading the references. Most of the time is just to cite the source so that my credibility is not challenged. I agree that sometimes the references might add some perspective and/or content, but in the grand scheme of things not really, just details methinkxs
I don’t think it is unfathomable or unexplainable. Certainly, it does not lead to simple explanations and there are many aspects to look at. We can start with the fashionable (in the alt community) notion of mass formation psychosis, but this begs the question of why this is happening at this historical moment at the heart of Western Civilization in Western Europe (it is not as severe in the USA because don’t really believe the authorities even if we follow along because the political system is closed) because of the lack of meaning in purpose in people’s personal lives (USA-ans are more religious than Western Europeans) and collective lives. Hedonism and materialism just aren’t enough to provide meaning for very long and Western Europeans have enjoyed many decades of prosperity and security and over time that just isn’t enough to provide meaning. This creates a culture or weakness. I think that the leadership may understand this and believe that a crisis in energy and food may stiffen the spine their citizenry by coming together to make sacrifices for the common good. Maybe that will work and people will be willing to go back to working in factories making weapons and will volunteer to join the military, but I doubt it.
Because Americans have fought in so many pointless wars they may be immune to joining together against a common enemy and we’re far too cynical to be taken in on a mass level despite the 24/7 propaganda being churned out by the Mighty Wurlitzer. What a shame that the far more educated people in Western Europe have become so stupid and illogical that they swallow the lies from their propaganda organs despite the obvious evidence that they are lying. I remember way back in ’68 when some students in Italy were making fun of me for believing the official story of the assassinations–I then set about to educate myself and found they were right. Europeans have pointed out the obvious naiveté of Americans for decades and now they are the chumps and we’re becoming hip since the alt-media is much stronger and more believable here. Hope Europe moves in our direction.
“This additional heavy truck traffic would require upgrading newer roads and building new ones.”
I just came from Poland. When driving to the Polish town for ceramics manufacturing close to Germany (Boleslawiec), I noticed that the A4 highway connecting Berlin to Poland was on the verge of collapse: I saw hundreds and hundreds of trucks trying to join the highway, many of them unable to move on the truck dedicated line.
The rest of Poland, on the other hand, has a rather light traffic usage.
I wonder how would they cope with increased traffic if they had to replace other means of transportation by trucks.
Andrés, thank you SO MUCH for your precise and most valid comments with which I agree. But the eye-witness info you supply is invaluable Andrés. Your explanation and data is right on point and very focused indeed on the many unsolvable problems to be “solved” (not). At least with such a imminent deadline !! As a matter of fact, from what you describe Andrés, the road network you witnessed first-hand should correspond to many important industrial and processing plants, including the now world-famous CPK SCHWEDT refinery the third largest throughout Europe which supplies diesel fuel to ALL of Berlin, ALL Brandenburg State and a large portion Western Poland. So,,, what to say… We have just received from you Andrés a first-hand description of what to expect, including the Leuna refinery a bitter further South as , jointly with Schwedt, both are still supplied excellent door-to-door Urals blend feedstock oil through the Druzbha pipeline (Russian) . But this feed will stop dead in its tracks in 5 (five) months and NO plans of any sort are being prepared besides political announcements saying “we will replace that with seaborne non-Russian oil” So please do check out my previous article specifically on the Schwedt problem at
Respectfull and firm hand-shake to you dear Andrés and if all possible add further comments of yours that no one else has. Congratulations, and we need your eyewitness reports Andrés !! Cordially Jorge
Great read Jorge!
Now that the fascist leaders of North America & Europe have been exposed as charlatans, what’s the next step for the proletariat?
We’ve witnessed recently that the police states in France, Canada and Holland, by order of the Elites/Deep State, are fully prepared without fear of prosecution or blowback, to use live ammunition and and other lethal force/means to quell any dissent/uprising.
Having read everything you’ve written here on The Saker, Jorge (I expect you’re contemplating a book ), you don’t need a crystal ball to fathom that state violence will surge even further and more violently as the standard of living in the west deteriorates rapidly.
WTFUD thank you for your most valid input. Yes, I fully agree that things have no way to go other than turning yet more violent everywhere for the proletariat and also for middle classes. I have hope, but no arguments to think otherwise. Maybe Europeans react soon enough, I dunno… And no, I have not considered writing a book of any sort, but I guess that a “The Saker” articles compilation might have some meaningfull perspective in the future. Thanks WFUD !!
Great post, Mr. Vilches: logical, to-the-point, damning.
What a world.
Thank you John in San Diego for taking the time and effort for your favorable comment, certainly much needed trust me this is a very lonely task of mine I keep repeating. Cordially, Jorge
America wanted to fight Russia not just to the last Ukrainian but also to the last European.
Well, that will certainly happen–if not militarily then certainly economically.
In many ways, Europe has committed one of the most breathtakingly stupid decisions in history, when it was presented with the choice of:
1. Increase economic connectivity to the Eurasian supercontinent, which will be the driver of growth for the 21st century.
2. Follow the dictates of their American Masters down the garden path of a New Cold War, which plunges them into economic misery and impoverishment.
The Europeans chose option B and are now reaping the bitter fruit of this decision.
As Dmitry Medvedev states, the Americans and British conned the Europeans into an economic war against Russia to serve their own–not European–interests:
“Washington in tandem with London conned the Europeans like a couple of shell-game tricksters,” the former president wrote on Telegram.
Prior to imposing “crazy restrictions” against Russia, European countries should have calculated “their own monetary and economic problems,” Medvedev claimed, adding that the White House normally weighs its risks much better.“
But the ‘useful European idiots’ suffered much more at the mercy of the Americans,” the deputy chair of the Security Council stressed.
US and UK have ‘conned’ EU – Medvedev
There is a lesson in all this for certain Asian countries (cough, Japan) who are being manipulated by the Americans into a similar con job on the other side of the world–only with China playing the role of Russia, and Taiwan being Ukraine.
America wants to fight China to the last Taiwanese, Japanese, Australian, etc.
Given the choice between America’s New Cold War or Eurasian integration, what choice will nations in Asia make?
The Japanese and Australians will likely imitate the stupidity of the Europeans in order to please their American overlords and reap an equally horrific result for themselves.
Thanks for the article by Jorge Vilches. The European nightmare is just starting it seems. From our perspective, here in Iran, things are getting better. For example, I am finding the local bread, a traditional bread in Iran called Barbari, tastes a whole lot better than before. Well thanks to Russia’s grain export to Iran. Before it tasted like sawdust, but now it’s like real bread we used to eat when we were kids. The quality of the Russian grain is very high and natural tasting, unlike the GMO genetically modified type used in N.America, which they say is dangerous to human health.
maskazer thanks for your most welcome acknowledgement. Cordially Jorge
Thanks for this!!! This is a very important article that touches upon an often neglected theme: LOGISTICS
“Amateurs discuss tactics: professionals discuss logistics.” ~ Napoleon (attributed)
Even if they manage to get things somewhat sorted, imagine a EU government putting out a bid for the development of a new coal fired power generation project or a coal mine. Who in their right mind would bid on such a project, knowing the first thing that will happen, once the crisis is averted, is for the Greens to call for throttling it back or closing it? Not to mention the odium from the rest of the Western elite ESG obsessed financial class.
I can see why Putin is taking his time with the SMO. The EU is like a fly making first contact with a spider’s web, escape seems possible at first… (lol)
Rokossovsky, thanks for your excellent example and specific quote. Yes, I also believe that right now as we speak logistics is making a huge military difference in the battlefield. Let alone when logistics also bites the tail of any plan pretending to substitute Russian energy. For example, replacing Russian pipelines with seaborne gas & oil sourcing. Cordially Jorge
This will only fasten the process where Europe will be marginalized as not relevant egonomic and strategic global players. In 1990 Europe used 22% of global energy, last year 12,7%. So Europe is clearly moving to era where its influence is coming near its demographic weight, less than 10%, instead of 32% it was had of global GDP. Here comes the New Early Middle Ages where after Roman Empire Europe was shadowed by eastern giants – China and India, and Middle East. Western hegemony has collapsed. And there won’t be any recovery.
I think ‘hypnotized’ is the wrong word. Certainly a large segment of the EU populace has been propagandized into such a state, but as for their “leaders” it is a case of corruption plain and simple. The US has been largely in control of most of Europe since WWII.
The (exposed) tapping of Angela Merkel’s phone was not an outlier, it is standrad practice. Manipulation via bribery, threat, etc. is standard operating procedure with the goal of maintaining absolute control of European politics. Hawkish BoJo, ejected from UK politics is poised to become head of NATO while Liz(ard) Truss – Hawkish UK minister of ‘defense’ – is poised to replace him. _elensky was groomed for his role for years before becoming president, as his offshore accounts prove.
The salient point here is that regime change in Europe is going to be difficult as the vast majority of political players have been co-opted by the CIA. Europe, like the US, will require a complete meltdown before any change is even remotely possible. The good news is that many European governments are actually afraid of their citizens, unlike the US where most citizens are terrified by their government.
For: Black Cloud:
_elensky was groomed for his role for years before becoming president, as his offshore accounts prove.
It is my thought that the savior, Lech Wałęsa, was not a spontaneous eruption either. Both are used against Russia, previously USSR.
Wałęsa leads himself with great self-assurance – than and now.
Both feel that the Empire spread a safety umbrella above them.
That include “speeches” for fees or the trivial Vogue photo.
Hi Black Cloud, and thanks for your critical comments, of course very well-taken. Now then, actually 50% of me could agree with you indeed Black Cloud ! But my other 50% would ask… how could it be possible for such tremendously extreme hardship that´s coming to Europe very soon NOT to force hundreds of millions of people into reasoning about what is really going on ???
I readily accept that European leadership would be corrupted. Okay, but that´s say, 1%, or even far less, no ? So how is it possible that, say, 1% of (corrupted) leaders — true enough — are able to drag down hundreds of millions into an inferno and not only that but that (a) the 99% would readily accept and also (b) that the 1% would have to live in just as well ??? Cordially Jorge
We don’t disagree. Self-imposed hardships will lead to regime change.
The problem I see if the difficulty of achieving it. Probably easier in Europe than the US, where the police have been militarized with the 1033 program that transfers “surplus” military weapons and gear to them at no cost.
The ascension of UK Minister of Offense Truss to PM clearly shows her widespread political support and the extent to which Capitalism’s Invisible Army has control over UK politics. The same is true across Europe as evidenced by the blind march into oblivion as proxies for the U$.
I do enjoy seeing Macron lose Parliament, Italy’s government folding, and the political candidate in Greece using the Z symbol – an obvious reference to both the SMO in Ukraine and the 1967 Greek coup referenced by Costa Gravas’ classic film ‘Z’. I look forward to the rise of European citizens to reclaim their sovereignty.
That won’t happen so easily here (US). “Domestic terrorism” is the latest excuse to justify further domestic abuse. As the world rejects the U$ that militarism those forces will be increasingly turned against its own citizens. Examples abound, from “quelling the insurgency” in New Orleans after hurricane Katrina to FEMA plans for nationwide detainment camps to the undermining and sabotaging of the OCCUPY movement.
When your only tool is a hammer …
Black Cloud, I hope we agree that “something” important is coming to Europe very soon.
Is it (1) just a crisis (2) the most serious crisis since WW2 or (3) a complete meltdown not seen in the last century ?
Because if it were either (2) or (3) your “leadership corruption explanation” would not be enough, would it ?
I mean, how could millions of people freezing and starving to death NOT force a regime change ?
The German would have loved to get rid of nazis in 1944, but they couldn’t.
The Russian would have loved to get rid of the bolcheviks, but they could’nt for 70 years.
What we will have is autoritarive regimes in most of Europe (already partially in place).
The only possibility for regime change would be if the police and military of each nation also supported the change and stopped defending the governments.
A very excellent article. The effort is much appreciated. The insanity of European and es[ecially German leaders is hard to believe.
Thanks for your favorable comment John, much appreciated. Also, I agree: the European insanity most specially of German leadership is unfathomable. Cordially Jorge
There are downstream world-wide consequences no one has thought of yet, perhaps.
For example, Daimler Trucks North America gets its engine blocks from Daimler Trucks Europe. I’m a bit out of the loop now, but Germany wanted to control the machining of most import piece on a truck, namely the engine block.
I believe they may have allowed Detroit Diesel to start making some models, but what happens to the world’s supply of vital automotive components that Germany will no longer be able to make, or in the same quantities and cost as before?
How about throwing your highly professional analysis skills at those world-wide supply chains Jorge?
Thank you Stu for your comment. In respect to your final proposal I would need to have the “insider” info that — for instance — you have regarding Daimler. And I do not have that detailed first-hand info regarding other specific cross-border supply chains. Still, thank you so much for your valuable — and correct — input because there must be hundreds if not thousands of equivalent situations worldwide such as the one you explain. Cordially Jorge
The Axis of Incompetence. The primary difference between China / Russia and the US / EU is that the former clearly thought out all sorts of possibilities, responses, counter responses, requirements to survive western sanctions, etc. We can all tell that they did because they’re not only enacting them, but had them at the ready. Not so much for Oceania. It was all back of the napkin brilliance unsupported by working out the details. So here we are. The moment western leaders created is far, far too big for them. They are beginning to panic because “it always works out somehow” is not looking like a great strategy anymore.
Another professionally presented reality check.
Besides the excellent economics the comedy content is hilarious.
Made my breakfast read most enjoyable. There is no greater gift than watching a smug bully get smacked down.
Team Putin ….”.you ain’t seen nothing yet.” But we can all see the signs 😆 for those prepared to look.
Dear Aaron, as always, THANK YOU guy for your favorable comments and all. And I also appreciate your acknowledgement of the built-in sarcasm and comedy I add to make the reading more lively, colorfull and attractive. It´s sad enough as it already is, no ? So I try to pull a laugh or two from readers every now and then… and even if it were just a Mona Lisa smirk I´d feel accomplished anyway ! Bear hug to you Aaron !!!
Great article Jorge Vilches. My question to you (or anyone) is whether you think it is possible that the clear idiocy in Europe is deliberate by the leadership or whether they are just blundering along because of pressure from Washington/Langley. I’ve been around people in power and most of them suffer from some form of groupthink not because they are stupid but because they want to have good careers. Many of them half-believe what they are saying and doing but privately are skeptical. In Washington we used to say “no good deed goes unpunished” and you iterate that value in a primitive game-theory matrix and you get what we have in Washington today. All this is for the good as the old “white man’s burden” is fading into obscurity to good or ill.
Chris, first allow me to thank you for your favorable comment.
Regarding your question on people in power and leadership motivations — say, the 1% — there are several possibilities and what you propose Chris is certainly a valid one. My deep-rooted question though refers not to the 1% but rather to the remaining 99% who empower them. What is the 99% thinking ? What do they believe is going on ? Are they anywhere aware of what´s coming to them in 6 months or less ? I insist that genuine, deep, extreme hardship will make many/most come to their senses and then, and only THEN — meaning starving and freezing to death — will they react, not before. Nobody wants to get their feet wet now, so they will all drown later pretty much before changing their attitudes and policies methinkxs.
See my comment above. It’s about finding meaning in something other than materialism and hedonism and Europeans are less able to do that than Americans.
Totally horrible. The US and NATO have unnecessarily visited a catastrophe upon Europe
Europe must take equal; they willingly bent over and allowed themselves to be raped.
Many thanks Jorge for your efforts in establishing reality against the background of deception and illusion.
There have been many comments attached to this article from readers, and from yourself about the unfathomable stupidity of European leaders. It is stupidity, but it is more than that too. I think to myself, what does one gain from becoming part of the EU political machine and devoting your career to it? Like any large bureaucracy, it’s well remunerated. You can afford that expensive hotel, and drink that Chateau Lafite, or even have it paid for. It’s a very tangible reality, and if you’re part of it, you’ve substituted this reality over any other. The incentive to keep believing in this reality is complete when you really are sleeping on those linen sheets, so you support whatever is required to uphold this reality. In the end any other reality simply recedes to non-existence.
I’ve treated many people who are divorced from reality (I meant the seriously mentally ill), and they have something in common- their complete self-interest. I believe that when looking at the EU leadership we are looking at complete self interest. People like you and me don’t matter because we are not part of the construct of their reality of their daily lives. All large bureaucratic and political elites are alike in this.
It’s in the EU’s interest (and NATO’s, etc) to grow as large and as fast as possible, so it can create and live in it’s own reality. The goal of the EU is to serve the EU. The goal of NATO is to serve NATO. The drive to self preservation is seen everywhere.
They will keep constructing a suitable reality on the fly even as it is undermined by actual events they cannot control. The propensity of individuals to deny reality, and avoid insight into themselves is quite remarkable. Flight from wellness is a real phenomenon. Entities like the EU are no different from individuals. That’s why European leaders are sacrificing their citizens rather than face reality, sit down with Russia and talk terms.
In the end, the ill by some means either escape treatment (in which their illness leads to degeneration or demise) or are forcibly treated.
My thought is that the EU, which their leaders seem to have at times mistaken for the universe, will be forcibly treated by the course of events: the world is bigger than they. I see no insight through which they can begin to treat themselves.
Flip, thank you for your favorable comments. I try as hard as I can, and trust me it is not easy. Still, “The Saker” readers deserve it. This is home to me. Cordially Jorge
A part of the Western war on Russia is their attack on Russian athletes. The International Gymnastics Federation’s (FIG) 2022 Congress has ben moved from Norway to Turkey. Since Norway refused to allow Russian and Belarus athletes to compete. I suspect that the West is going to start losing most of the World sporting events from now on. Most of the World isn’t going to permit overt discrimination like the West is trying to pull against Russia in the future:
Turkey to host gymnastics summit after Norway refused to allow Russians
Thank you Jorge for another excellent and informative article. It is astonishing to see Europe implode economically, especially Germany. Industries will shut down, people will lose their livelihoods, and the country will be in shambles. Cold and hungry people are going to resort to violence against their governments.
I never in my lifetime thought that the U.S. and Europe would be arming Nazis in Ukraine – especially Europe which fought against them in WWII. Russia (Soviets) fought them also. I really don’t understand the hatred against Russia.
Thank you again for your fine essays.
Catherine !!! Thank you yet again for your kind words and acknowledgement gal. As you know, comments like yours help me lots because mine is a very lonely task. But you change that here and now. This right here and now is home to me. Catherine thank you again !! Cordially yours Jorge
The article is just brilliant. I want to share it with every one I know – but sadly there are few in my circle who would read it or care enough to take the time. It’s a “lonely” time for many millions of us around the world who do the research and seek out information beyond the “fact checked” captured news. I have just discovered your website via a link on Zero Hedge. I’ll be bookmarking it and staying tuned in from Northern California. Thank you.
Suzanna, thank you so much for your favorable comments for they make the difference to me !
I readily admit needing encouragement, and it´s not my ego, trust me. Actually I dare to say my ego is absent. The problem is I am a one-man band running on a shoe-string budget all alone for everything… Yes, reading lots but also doing house-chores, cooking and groceries. And quite frankly I also struggle to make ends meet. So with all of you commentariati right here I feel I have friends like you Suzanna. So thank you again !!
Reading this gave me a lovely warm feeling, the Germans named it schadenfreude.
Well, I don’t know where you live, but I, living in the US, wouldn’t act high and mighty…
I was just curious about what a long term power outage might do to a wind turbine. I understand that large turbines, when still, draw power from the grid to slowly turn them over and prevent them from becoming unbalanced.
How long would it take a power outage to make, say, a 5 MW wind turbine: 1) reparably and 2) irreparably unbalanced?
As much as I have talked with my native Finnish friends and relatives i’ve been shocked how incredible brainwashed especially our young educated generation is. For instance none of I have talked with had any idea about different blends of oil. They were totally surprised to know how painfully difficult and expensive, even impossible for refinery is it to replace one crude oil blend by another. Also the weight of natural gas and coal for energy is largely undermined. Their brains have been washed to focus only wind and solar energy. I’ve started to speculate has the era of “Western August 1991 final victory” totally misled that young generation for unbelievable fantasy life abandoning hard facts of economy, energy and structures of society. They see only what they believe. That’s next 9 months will be pretty cruel lesson for this generation. Interestingly working class and older people have at least some clue what’s coming. However they are not the people whose premonitions are taken seriously in media. TV news can talk about rising energy prices (now almost daily) but few minutes later same media folks keep on talking “how to punish Russia”. Even if they realize something they don’t really understand the causation. In same way most educated people don’t really understand how and why Europe will be marginalized. Very few understand what useful idiots (owned by US Deep State) these EU politicians really have been. The growing economic and geopolitical weight of China and India just like the move to multipolar world is mostly either ignored or poorly understood.
Most in the U.S./Canada remain appallingly ignorant of what’s going down and how it will affect them too. And the U.S. leadership? Well, it is readily apparent these are not top flight brains at work. I see the BRICS currency playing a pivotal role in the ultimate outcome. The West is a “dead man walking.”
Western masters can be expected to channel dissatisfaction of the peoples by attacking Russia. They will explain that they must go to the East to release the raw materials.
sitting in southern England contemplating the self destruction of my country, I despair.
Unfortunately the vast majority of the population are totally unaware of the situation.
Blind to the coming storm, like cattle they go about their business.
This shitshow is nothing to do with the man in the street, wherever he resides.
Forces beyond our control have instigated this madness.
However the elites will find,no one is willing to fight and die for their stupidly. Once hunger and a cold winter or two wake the general populace up, hopefully we will see some politicians and Davos types swinging from lamp posts.
It will take a massive shift in thinking before the sheep realise what is happening to them and the country.
We all know this and are aware how the world really works.
Personally I am fully behind the Russians, although this causes me much grief from brainwashed others.
We need to detach ourselves from state entities much as is happening in south Africa. The future is going to look very different.
It’s time to look East and build Bridges ,open new communication lines and start afresh. We need men of vision like never before, not pound shop politicians fighting like rats in a sack.
Yes i live in the North of England,and the level of brainwashing is unbelievable,many are politically illeiterate,they exist in a Truman Show bubble of their own making,and the ruling elite are quite happy to keep them there.
A slow motion train wreck unfolding while picking up speed every day that passes. Will they come to their senses? Will it take popular revolutions and are the yet-sentient people even capable of snapping out of their leadership’s imposed and impending catastrophe?
The magnitude of these known consequences seems to have gripped the Continent in a dream-like state of paralysis—the nightmare where the Monster is gaining on you as you attempt to sprint in quicksand…
Oh but they’ve really done it this time. Heavy allied bombing in WW II cannot compare to the damage about to be inflicted. As American cartoonist stated through his famous cartoon character Pogo back in 1970(?)… “We have met the enemy, and it is us.”
David from Alaska, your comments trigger lots of deep thinking. Yes, today Europe is Europe´s worst enemy.
This article gets shared with the only 2 people I know who actually have an interest in the world around them. I read in the comment section those who believe they know who is to be ascribed the cause of this global tragedy. I am of the belief it is a hidden hand and the outcomes you describe coming in our future are the outcomes desired. It appears that soon the destruction of western civilization will be complete which inevitably will lead to a population collapse. A successful operation on their part.
James, thanks for your comments and for sharing this article with others. Cordially Jorge
Right. To quote from my new book on the subject: “Europe was facing a future of peace, prosperity and cultural exchange. All it had to do was switch on the Nordstream-II tap, and not allow undue intrusion of NATO onto the borders of Russia. Was that so hard?”
On the mindless behaviour of Europe: “Only in NATO doublespeak can anyone pretend that putting US missiles on Russia’s doorstep improves security. Calm, unhurried judgement in the council-chambers of Europe was required to avoid being carried away by fake-news and fabricated-terror stories brewed up by the ‘hidden hand’, the US-UK Axis of Evil. However the politicians and decision-makers of Western Europe greatly lack such inner strength and instead just need to be told whom to hate. Swiftly now will we see Europe descending into poverty and chaos. ”
‘Ukraine: The Just War, or how the West as lost’ – as a fervent anti-war activist all my life its so strange to come across a war that I believe in, a war which Russia had to fight – that’s why I wrote it.https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/1739999428?ref_=pe_3052080_397514860
Nick, as you should guess by now, I entirely agree with your excellent summary. Your book promises being 100% worthwhile. I wish you the best of success. Cordially Jorge
Madrid, Spain. The Spanish prime minister holds a press conference.
“I would like you to see that I am not wearing a tie. This means that all of us are able to save energy and I have asked the government ministers, all public officials and the private sector, that they do not wear a tie when it is not necessary, because this way we will make the energy savings that our country needs.”
Have our politians always been this inept?
No wonder we no more need Monty Python. The reality has overcome parody and satire.
this is satire surely!
Passerby, thank you, because what your post describes is (1) a tragic reality-joke of sorts which may cheer us up a bit — which we badly need — and also (2) a clear explanation of why and how Europe got here and how and why it will freeze and starve this winter. You cannot make this stuff up… Cordially, Jorge
” Gas levy could triple household heating bills In Germany ”
” Germany plans to introduce a levy for all its gas consumers beginning in October as the government looks to avoid a wave of collapsing gas-importing and gas-trading companies amid record-high natural gas prices, a new bill seen by Reuters showed on Thursday.”
Hundreds of billions of euros behind the wave of bankruptcies coming up.
Dear, Jorge. Hope you will start, in not distant future, touching the bottom blade of all those “insane” behaviors of the Western elites: The Judeo-Zionist Supremacists’ money printing hegemony. Where we have debt, they are actors. Where we have credit, they are at the helm. They are controlling the levers & the drivers of all things related to money. By destruction & chaos, they want to preserve the value of their printed wealth, their over-roll power on every segment of the Western civilization.
I strongly suggest you link to the following article of mine published only last week right here in The Saker regarding — as you say — “all things related to money” entitled ´Western Currencies Will Fail´. Cordially, Jorge
Yet more of the same bad news.
Water scarcity is frequent today in Europe. Now the European heat wave is causing the Rhine River levels In Germany to drop even lower as barges reduce cargo.
The Rhine — an 800-mile or 1,300 kilometer river — runs from Switzerland to the North Sea and is used to transport tens of millions of tons of commodities through inland Europe. The Rhine has already fallen to dangerously low levels and keeps close to shutdown altogether which would result in economic and supply chain turmoil for as long as it lasts.
The United Nations (UN) and the World Economic Forum (WEF) led by Klaus Schwab are behind the current worldwide ‘War On Farmers’. If left unchecked, such policies on agriculture and food production would lead to economic devastation, shortages of critical goods, widespread famine for millions, and a dramatic loss of individual freedoms. Land cannot be treated as an ordinary asset controlled by individuals” and that private land ownership is “a principal instrument of accumulation and concentration of wealth, therefore contributes to social injustice. Public control of land use is therefore indispensable. So, per WEF, you will own nothing.
Experts interviewed by The Epoch Times say that some of the world’s wealthiest and most powerful corporate leaders are working with communists in China and elsewhere in an effort to centralize control over food production and crush independent farmers and ranchers. “The end goal of these efforts is to reduce sovereignty on both individual nations and people,” said Craig Rucker. “The intent for those pushing this agenda is not to save the planet, as they purport, but to increase control over people,” as the goal is to centralize power at the national and even international level.
There is new European electricity report of Q1 2022 figures. I picked some interesting details:
“Despite increased levels of fossil fuels generation, the share of renewable energy managed to reach 39%, outperforming fossil fuels (37%) in the first months of 2022. Compared to the first quarter of 2021, renewable generation increased its output by 1% (+1 TWh) as a result of an increase of 20% (+20 TWh) in onshore wind, 31% of solar (+8 TWh) and 8% of offshore wind (+1 TWh) on a yearly basis, despite hydro generation decreasing by 27% (-28 TWh). In the same period, a climb of 6% (+17 TWh) of fossil fuels and a drop of 9% (-16 TWh) of nuclear generation was registered.”
1) wind and solar went 28 TWh up
2) hydro went 28 TWh down
3) fossil fuels went 17 TWh up
4) nuclear energy went 16 TWh down
… during those 3 first months. Let’s not forget last winter was not cold in Europe, actually quite the opposite. Hydro situation looks good in Scandinavia but bad in south. Nuclear energy is question and much dependent on French situation. Finns have serious issues with their new 5th plant capacity of 1600 MW. It has potential to produce just 3.4 TWh during Q1 2023 and that’s why can’t replace losses of shut down Belgium and German nuclear energy production much at all.
Behind the looming European disaster are also quite out of date obsolete electricity grids which should need new investment.
Travis, thanks lots for your valuable data and analysis. Additionally, it would be excellent if you could also share with us data & analysis (whatever) related to your very last sentence on …”obsolete electricity grids” + stations + yards + transformers etc etc etc.
Also, your comment seems to support my own analysis herein the article.
Please see the “hypnotized renewables” paragraph which, among other things, points out that…”… as soon as renewables in large quantities are added to any electrical grid, costs go up – not down — as they have to be backstopped by fossil-fueled thermal plants that today should also run on Russian fuels. Please understand and accept that the more renewables added, the more natural gas that is needed. People do not accept rolling brown-outs let alone black-outs, so fossil fuel backstops are mandatory”. Cordially, Jorge
It was my personal opinion that not all European grids and power plants are well operating and modern. Romania many times mentioned at critical country causing black outs but here’s something about Italian situation some years ago.
“According to data provided by AEEGSI, the Italian regulator, in 2013 available maximum capacity of relevant plants was on average about 75 GW, still 50% higher than peak demand.The significant gap between installed and available capacity was due to planned maintenance, technical outages, refurbishment activities or simply because producers mothballed some of their unprofitable capacity in moments of weak demand.
Indeed, due to particularly bleak perspective for oil and gas fired power generation, energy companies have reduced almost to zero investments in new capacity and have begun to decommission some of the least efficient or poorly-located plants. Data from the Ministero dello Sviluppo Economico, the Italian ministry in charge of overseeing the electricity industry, confirms that no big new power plant (more than 300 MW) has been commissioned since 2012 and that companies that got authorisations in the past for building new capacity are asking for time extension and do foresee the commissioning of only 430 MW in 2016 and 800 MW in 2017. At the same time AEEGSI refers that in 2013 and in 2014 a significant amount of capacity has been withdrawn, both definitely or temporarily.
Going more into detail, we can see that in 2013 the net reduction in available capacity was of 1.7 GW and that it was mainly due to the retirement of relevant thermal power plants qualified for the participation to the market for dispatching services. The value of those plant closures is rather significant, about 2.3 GW, but still much smaller than the withdraw of capacity, again mainly composed of large fossil fuels fired plants, estimated for 2014. Preliminary data by the AEEGSI talks about 9.3 GW.
Such reduction, for the most part due to the mothballing of several now unprofitable but relatively new and not fully depreciated fossil fuels fired power plants, is coherent with the fact that electricity companies did not record good revenues and profits in 2014 and do not expect any strong recovery in market conditions in the years ahead. Consequently, some firms are planning or already implementing divestitures: Enel, the market leader, talked in October of 23 possible closures for 11 GW of capacity, and E.On, the fifth largest producer, decided last year to leave Italy and sell its thermo-electric assets to Eph, a central European company with interests in gas, coal and electricity.”
Maybe part of reasons for European electricity issues are based on bad revenues and low investment level around 6-8 years ago. European electricity consumption has actually more likely gone down since 2016 than increased. Demographics and low real economy growth may have caused spiral effect where low investments are making part of power plants obsolete on modern standards.
Travis, thank YOU.
Your precise description re Italian situation years ago is an excellent example of the messy mess we now have to live through. On the other hand, politicians have NOT managed expectations truthfully and based on reality. So people are now dumbfounded not understanding what´s going on, what will or may happen, or who to believe… In other words, a European nightmare. Thanks again and please keep sharing Travis ! Cordially Jorge
Those figures are suggesting than whole renewable electricity energy production level is still near 100 TWh/ quarter while fossil fuels production level must have been around 290 TWh and nuclear 170-180 TWh.
Then we have to remember the European whole energy consumpion of 2021, estimated 1787 million equivalent ton of oil which might have been around 450 Mtoe in Q1 2022. Exchanging it to TWh is giving something like ~4500 Twh. ( 1 litre oil = 10 KWh)
As we can see electricity is just small though important share of whole energy sector. What is 125 TWh wind + solar compared to 4500 TWh of whole energy need? Just few percentage.
Lead headline comment and ´first read´ article today
…” Jorge Vilches has it exactly right. Europe is shedding infrastructure and deals for which they have zero replacement and without which Europe as we know it will cease to exist.”…
I have never been honored by such a favorable comment by the Editor of high-level RE-publishing blog.
CONGRATULATIONS editors Andrei + Amarynth + commentariati at large
This article has been RE-published today by “The Automatic Earth” + “Debt Rattle”
CONGRATULATIONS editors Andrei + Amarynth + commentariati at large
This article has been RE-published today by “Zero Hedge”
Jorge Vilches wrote in the first paragraph:
… EU leadership is immersed in a deep hypnotic trance and just blindly following US-UK instructions …
Herewith a picture from 2016:
Twee thank YOU ahahahhh yes yours is a very explicit — and precise — cartoon depicting European reality. Thanks for your input Twee. Cordially, Jorge
Gazprom has published some of its correspondence with Siemens and blames it for a reduction in the current gas deliveries from Russia to Europe. Gazprom says it can readily prove that Siemens has so far eliminated only one-fourth of the total number of discovered malfunctions affecting its turbines.
This should mean that NS1 will be delivering 20% of nominal flow-rate capacity and that NS2 will continue NON-commissioned. So it seems that it will be far more than just a VERY cold winter in Europe.
“We call on our partners to resolve their own issues as soon as possible,” the Gazprom deputy CEO stated, also adding that the gas supply to Europe would then “go back to normal in no time.”
«Gazprom says it can readily prove that Siemens has so far eliminated only one-fourth of the total number of discovered malfunctions affecting its turbines.»
I guess the Siemens executives really don’t wish to be “sanctioned” by the USA and to have their USA, UK, etc. subsidiaries confiscated or closed down.
And that is precisely why it is a mistake to invest in these countries. Doing so is stupid, and that should have been clear for decades, since Daimler “invested” in the Chrysler scrapheap, for example.
Ah well, so it is.. Our idiot politicians might not avoid a rope dance in a lamppost come winter, I will be glad to help, expert in hangman’s noose. Just got 4 tonnes of pellets, I will not freeze, 1000 tins of canned stuff, and 200 kg of dried things will see me through… Albeit forgot toilet paper,,
Den Lille Abe, thank you for your contribution but — sorry to say — but by (a) you forgetting toilet paper and (b) per the “hypnotized toilet paper” paragraph above you are hereby punished to re-read the whole article all over again x 3 x times ahahahahhhahh Cordially Jorge
Primary energy consumption using terawatthours was in the 2020 globally 154620 TWh. European Union (27) consumed 15482 TWh, whole Europe 21430 TWh (Russia 7865 TWh), USA 24387 TWh, China 40404 TWh, India 8884 TWh and Japan 4731 TWh.
Comparing 27 EU countries their primary energy consumption has actually decreased during last 20 years. In 2000 their numbers were total 17869 TWh using these sources…
Note: Primary energy consumption data was compiled by Our World in Data based on two key data sources:
1. BP Statistical Review of World Energy: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
2. International data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/total-energy/more-total-energy-data
«Comparing 27 EU countries their primary energy consumption has actually decreased during last 20 years»
There is a very big story there, first discovered in the EU statistics by a german blogger, who then went private consultant, and then disappeared: many indicators of “development” (prosperity) have gone backwards since 2003-2005 (a bit less than 20 years), and not just on a whole-country basis, but also *per-person* (that is independently of low natality rates and populations shrinking).
In particular in many “developed” countries electricity consumption per person has collapsed for the fist time since the invention of electricity, here for 1960-2014:
There are handwaving claims that this is due to massive investment in replacing less efficient electrical devices with more efficient ones, but:
* The biggest falls are in the poorest regions of countries like UK and Italy.
* Electricity consumption growth has boomed in countries like Korea-south, China-mainland, Malaysia, despite their (“catch-up”) investing in the most recent and efficient devices.
I think that it is demand destruction on a gigantic scale. It is “amazing” that officially reported GDP-per-person numbers have not followed the same decline, because before 2003-2005 GDP and electricity consumption per head were closely correlated, to the point that electricity consumption per head as considered a proxy for GDP.
Note: looking at IEA stats for the years since 2014 the same trends have continued, for example:
«Now, captured by cunning Anglo-Saxon global elites, Germans are helping other European “useful idiots” to erect a much higher and thicker wall to cut themselves off from Russia leading them into a war economy.»
That is the usual great misunderstanding of the situation: the USA vassal states don’t have a choice between complying with USA sanctions or not, they have a choice between complying with USA sanctions or being sanctioned themselves by the USA, plus being targeted by USA “regime change” operations (which don’t always succeed but often do succeed, sooner or later).
For them the cost of losing RF supplies and markets is much smaller than that of losing USA-controlled supplies and markets, and the risk of RF “regime change” operations is zero, and that of USA ones is very high. It is different in large part for the ruling elites of places like Belarus or Kazakhstan etc., they have seen what happened to the previous ruling elites in Ukraine or Georgia.
The USA ruling corporate and military elites run an imperial “protection” racket, and as a “roof” (“крышa” “krysha”) they are harder and stronger than the RF or the PRC, for now at least.
«they have a choice between complying with USA sanctions or being sanctioned themselves by the USA»
Two quotes from Churchill illustrate:
David Cannadine, Roland Quinault “Winston Churchill in the Twenty First Century”:
«The irony was, of course, that one of the war aims of the Roosevelt administration was the liquidation of the British Empire, and the expansion of American power and influence at the expense of Britain.
By the end of 1943 it was clear to Churchill that he could no longer rely on American co-operation. As he explained to Violet Bonham Carter: “When I was at Teheran I realized for the first time what a very small country this is. On the one hand the big Russian bear with its paws outstretched — on the other the great American Elephant — and between them the poor little British Donkey — who is the the only one that knows the right way home”.»
Churchill to De Gaulle, 1944-06-04, quoted in Jean Lacouture “Le Rebelle”, 1984.
«“How can you think that we British would take a position separate from that of the United States? We are going to liberate Europe but it is because the Americans are with us in doing it. Because every time we must choose between Europe and the open seas, we shall always choose the open seas. And every time I have to choose between you and Roosevelt, I will always choose Roosevelt.”»
Thank you for your excellent quotes Blissex, certainly case in point. Cordially Jorge
“the USA vassal states don’t have a choice between complying with USA sanctions or not, they have a choice between complying with USA sanctions or being sanctioned themselves by the USA”
It is not clear which vassal states you are referring to. But clearly some do have a choice. Japan and Germany are the biggest ones. They obviously do have a choice. It would require a break with Azi American propaganda and ideology. Don’t know about Japan, but trouble in Germany is the political propaganda system is filled with traitors.
So let Azi America have sanctions against Germany. This is a double-edged sword. It could be greatly exploited for propaganda against Azi America. Azi Americans would have to consider very carefully what kind of sanctions they would apply against Germany. They could backfire and have them lose a lot of support they have built up over decades. Again, the problem is the propaganda apparatus is filled with traitors.
Let Germany and Japan lose their Azi American markets. We absolutely don’t need to export to Azi America. What they have that we don’t have, we could build it at home. The question would be whether the Americans could still build what Germany and Japan can build.
In the ultimate analysis, the reason given for the Azi American indispensability is always their “nuclear umbrella”, the hoax of the atomic bomb, 77 years old and still going. Knocking it down will deal a huge blow to Azi American propaganda and ideology.
In reality, Azi American power hold on Germany works by grooming traitors, plus the occasional terrorism, such as GermanWings 9525 on 3/24/15, which is too tough a blow for figures such as Merkel to deal with.
The accumulated cost of Azi American vassality over the decades is much much higher than the benefits. And there is a choice, and the chances are getting bigger as Azi American vassality brings more and more disadvantages and less and less benefits.
Both Germany and Japan, plus most of the EU have been occupied by the US military since the end of WW2 in 1945, rendering them into vassal states of the US with no financial or political independence. Dissenting nations such as North Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Iraq, Libya, Serbia were bombed into submission, and many South American countries had their democratically elected governments replaced using the CIA to install a wealthy, murderous elite to subjugate their indigenous populations.
Supply chain collapse is not that big a deal. Everyone can just stay home and plant a food garden. Poland will take care of those pesky Russians.
Look into UN Sustainable Development Goals. All of these moves are consistent with those, and it’s a brutal regime couched in friendly environmentalists terms.
The elites need to destroy the final vestiges of sovereignty, from private property to national borders, in order to rebuild with their brave new world vision.
Seriously – does the author not realize that the sanctions have not ‘back-fired’ – because they were intended all along to cripple the economies of Europe, with damaging Russia being only a secondary objective?
To implement the WEF / globalists’ Great Reset, the price of oil and gas have to be driven up through the roof – to:
(1) make their ‘Green’ alternative energy sources cost-competitive, and to make it too expensive for all but the rich to drive cars;
(2) to create serious food shortages by driving fertilizer costs through the rood, and by forcing countries to switch to organic fertilizers – so as to force Western populations to switch to the synthetic meat and insect foods which the WEF’s members have prepared for them;
(3) to help create a financial and economic crisis – the catastrophic results of which will make the desperate populations of the West sufficiently desperate that they will accept the Great Reset.
Sri Lanka’s current economic collapse was caused directly by the globalists forcing them to switch from chemical fertilizer to organic fertilizer – and now, the WEF puppet rulers of Ireland and Canada, having seen the disastrous results of that for Sri Lanka, are forcing their own countries to do the same!
help to create a Narrative for why the West will soon
I agree with the first paragraph, the sanctions were designed to cripple Europe, and to punish Germany in the first place, who has been set up with this “renewables” nonsense for decades to make it depend on gas (because “renewables” don’t work without a gas backup).
Both the climate hoax (CO2 ideology, made in Azi America) and the sanctions are about to create conditions that will destroy core pillars of German economy, which will then have to die – or move elsewhere, with elsewhere being on the other side of the Atlantic, for example, which would help to MAGA.
I just think it is not adequate to identify the WEF as the master of disaster. That organization is just a shell for Azi American strategic interests with regards to the rest of the world. I am totally not buying into this Klaus Schwab guy being the master of puppets. He is a fake figure like Zuckerberg. He doesn’t have real power. There is this Johnny Vedmore article on how behind Schwab there is Harvard, CRF, State Department, Kissinger, Herman Kahn, JK Galbraith.
Davos is an Azi American puppet and the Great Reset is the Azi American plan for Europe – not for the world. Going along with that is suicide indeed.
None of this was a mistake. None of this was simply bad decision making. Almost every European nation, the US, Australia and New Zealand are operating under the directives of the WEF. Everyone of those countries reacted the same to Covid by locking down their economies. They all then printed tons of fake money to drive up inflation. Now they are all forsaking oil, natural gas, coal and nuclear to pursue a fantasy about windmills and solar panels.
This was all done intentionally to destroy these nations so that the people would be desperate and accept a New World Order (a global dictatorship probably run by the UN) where no one owns anything and everyone will supposedly be happy. Russia and China have refused to allow their nations to be controlled by this new world order which is why EU/NATO/US/UK are now at war with Russia. If they are able to defeat Russia they will go to war against China next. Thankfully it looks like they will lose the war against Russia. Somehow the people in the western nations need to throw off these fake leaders and find new ones who will govern with the best interests of the people. Expect revolutions throughout Europe and hopefully in the US in 2023.
Thanx Jorge Vilches, for putting a name to the apparent source of human troubles.
Hypnotic technology begs understanding as much as anything else ever researched for the public good. And it has been right in front of us all the time, and religiously ignored.
There is data of UK electricity consumpion and sources in 1985:
– coal 177,16 TWh
– natural gas 2,90 TWh
– hydro 3,95 TWh
– oil 48,31 TWh
– nuclear energy 61,09 TWh
Total around 294 TWh
– coal 5,98 TWh (2021)
– natural gas 122,57 TWh
– hydro 5,59 TWh
– other renewable 39,11 TWh
– solar 12,47 TWh
– oil 8,58 TWh
– wind 64,37 TWh
– nuclear energy 46,86 TWh
Total around 305 TWh
Energy consumption has increased but decreased per capita during one generation.
However if we compare consumption to 1999 figures the decline has been sharp. In 1999 UK had around 365 TWh electricity consumption.
Whole energy consumption figures of UK were:
2020….1915 TWh (2019: 2146 TWh)
There seems to be 5% decrease per 10 years trend though population increase of 4-5%.
“Ukraine is limiting Russian gas flow to EU” – Gazprom
Europe could receive more natural gas if Kiev agrees to reopen a second entry point, which has been shut down since May…
Russia blames sanctions for EU gas-supply disruptions. Gazprom cannot increase deliveries until pipeline equipment is treated, says Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
Problems with turbine repair at Russia’s Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline are artificial and have been caused by Western sanctions. This situation needs to be sorted out, and there is not much Russia can do.
“World re-entering the coal age”, says IEA
Energy consumption change is underlining great strategic global shift from west to Asia when comparing 1999 figures to those of 2020.
EU 27 countries: – 13%
USA: – 6%
Japan: – 23%
South Korea: +57%
@Travis: “energy consumption growth 1999-2020… China China: +255%”
That is annually little quite near 6,5% growth on average. China’s GDP PPP has grown faster (8-9%) which means that
1) energy efficiency is now better or/and
2) part of even Chinese economic growth has not been real economy, but trade, service sector, even finance
There is hardly any modern economy having more that 80% of GDP or GDP PPP based only on real economy sector. Even China is facing lower economic growth after period of 1978-2008. This is quite natural. But if nation has no real economy growing it likely have slow decreasing energy consumption, something like 1-2% annually.
” Severing ties with Russia is absurd and dangerous ” says Saxony’s prime minister while calling for ‘pragmatism’ in relations with Russia. ” Our entire economic system is in danger of collapsing….”
But isn´t it way too little way too late ?
Energy consumption peaked in EU counties in 2006, total 19010 TWh in those 27 countries. After finance crisis EU has not really recovered if energy numbers are in line with real economy production and supply traffic. Last year EU (27) consumed energy 12% less than 2006 though population growth. Per capita consumption has decreased at least 17%. Any kind of energy efficiency cannot explain that move because after all minority of energy has been used by households. 12% decrese is telling the demise of EU economy.
I always enjoy your essays, Jorge.
The myriad documentation evidences your hard work and preparation.
Thanks for saying it Taffy !!!
And well yesm, I´d put it this way: at least I try hard, and also my very best… which means lots of work for this one-ban band running on a shoe-string budget. But also, as you know, I enjoy it because right here with you guys I feel at home. Best to you Taffy !!!
The UK and EU back down — or rather chicken out (ehem cof cof) — regarding no international insurance coverage for Russian oil. Decision reversed, winter is coming and is very cold.
“There is no current UK ban affecting global shipments of Russian oil ”
” The EU decided to extend the exemption from the prohibition to engage in transactions with certain state-owned entities as regards transactions for agricultural products and the transport of oil to third countries”
There is very interesting article by Gail Tverberg in oilprice.com
“Today’s Energy Crisis Spells Disaster For The Global Economy”
I’ll pick some vital details:
1)The price of energy has been too low for producers in recent years while the price of extraction has increased, this will cause the global economy to shrink
2)As the economy changes from growth to shrinkage, the rate of shrinkage of GDP will be greater than the rate of shrinkage of energy consumption
3)As interest rates rise, energy supplies will become even tighter, leading to a shortage of goods, a potential increase in conflict, and rising debt
“It is my view that when energy supply falls, it falls not because reserves “run out.” It falls because economies around the world cannot afford to purchase goods and services made with energy products and using energy products in their operation. It is really a price problem. Prices cannot be simultaneously high enough for oil producers (such as Russia and Saudi Arabia) to ramp up production and remain low enough for consumers around the world to buy the goods and services that they are accustomed to buying.”
” The issue causing the price conflict can be described as reduced productivity of the economy. The ultimate outcome of reduced productivity of the economy is fewer total goods and services produced by the economy.”
As mentioned here by several readers of this blog there is very strong correlation between energy and GDP PPP.
” GDP growth should exceed energy consumption growth when the economy is growing. Unfortunately, Section  also suggests that we can expect this favorable relationship to disappear as energy supply begins to shrink because of growing inefficiencies in the system. In such a case, GDP is likely to shrink even more quickly than energy supply shrinks. One reason this happens is because complexity of many types cannot be maintained as energy supply shrinks. For example, international supply lines are likely to break if energy supplies fall too low.”
It’s useful to know Tverberg used not GDP but GDP PPP to compare correlation between economic growth and energy consumption.
” We are dealing with a situation that economists, politicians, and central banks are ill-equipped to handle. Raising interest rates may squeeze out a huge share of the economy. The economy was already “at the edge.” We can’t know for certain.
Virtually no one looks at the economy from a physics point of view. For one thing, the result is too distressing to explain to citizens. For another, it is fashionable for scientists of all types to produce papers and have them peer-reviewed by others within their own ivory towers.”
(PS. This article should be carefully studied and analyzed in Saker blog)