by Jorge Vilches for the Saker Blog
Germans will soon passionately conjugate a very strange new verb amongst themselves, the infinitive form of which is “ to schwedt ”. Of course, all sorts of ironic phraseology will emerge in the blogosphere with creative commentariati wondering whether “to schwedt or not to schwedt”… or millennials surely indicating to “chill it, don´t schwedt it ”…
So, you may wonder what exactly is this ´schwedt´ thingy about ? Well, it all starts with Schwedt, a small greyish-dull industrial town in North East Germany right next to the Polish border – it doesn´t get much greyer than that – which is now getting ready for no more and no less than…(drumroll please)…sudden World Fame… or…”GAME OVER”.
Traffic today still continues to drive-by Schwedt gloriously unattentive with visitors naïvely unable to focus on anything special. But savvy technical buzz circles silently have it that the famous Schwedt Refinery – in a matter of weeks – will turn into the Mother of All Engineering & Political Battles ever that will define the future of Germany and Europe vis-á-vis the stubbornly desired banning of Russian oils. If this battle were lost ( or partially lost ) many firmly credible experts solemnly insist it would have irrevocable existential consequences with European countries turning into almost failed states. But then the question arises: Is it really possible – or even believable — that Germany (!) could actually fail in this essential Schwedt Refinery project it has set up for itself with absolutely no need ? How would it happen ?
Well, it should happen because only discontinuous and/or non-viable and/or variable-quality blends of unvetted yet far more expensive new oils are to be found as substitutes for constant, fully-proven all-around compliance of Russian Urals oil that all Europe enjoys today. Or also because of the subsequent failure of the refinement process for such yet non-existent and only theoretically viable non-Russian blends supposedly to be batch delivered (!) by still un-named third parties upon which Germany would necessarily entrust its existence. Instead, compare that to HUGE, smooth and constant,pipeline delivery of high quality Russian Urals feed 24x7x365 already processed by European refineries swiftly and reliably into excellent final products at an unbeatable un-subsidized price. Accordingly, the distillates to be possibly delivered (or not) by the Schwedt Refinery with non-Russian feedstocks may mean either World Fame or GAME OVER. Failure could also come about even assuming that vendors were able to supply enough and continuous seaborne batch quantities of reasonably viable oils. Because there might also not be enough fully dedicated handling, storage and/or logistics capacity at Baltic ports to unload and/or adequately deliver to a very far away Schwedt. Other logistical and batch-related factors could also go wrong. Made-In-Russia will be missed. For example, the Urals blend homogenous quality & quantities, the price, and the smooth 24x7x365 Druzhba feed. So let´s schwedt it, shall we ?
the “Battle of the Schwedt”
Many historians attribute to Mark Twain the saying: “History does not repeat itself but it does often rhyme.” At any rate, the Battle of the Bulge defined Germany´s defeat and the end of World War 2. Now, the Battle of the Schwedt will define the future of the world, but only if Western Europeans are able to avoid triggering World War 3, something that unfortunately is definitely in the cards. Meanwhile, small-town Schwedt is home to Germany´s most politically important refinery ( without Schwedt, no Berlin, okay ? ) which has been connected to the Druzhba pipeline for many decades smoothly and continuously bringing in precious Urals oil from Russia to process into many different distillates of excellence. So much so that the Schwedt Refinery all by itself today provides fuel to almost all filling stations in Berlin… as well as to the surrounding huge state of Brandenburg the 5th largest in all of Germany… plus also to the Berlin international airport… plus areas of Western Poland…
You do follow the importance of having a smooth, high quality, un-expensive operation at the Schwedt Refinery no ?
Well all that is soon about to drastically change as Germany apparently wants – at all costs — to stop importing the excellent, cheap, reliable, decades-proven, fully vetted, well-delivered, and most successfully processed and refined Russian oil. And even if the new and still unknown vendors were to duly coordinate themselves (?) to continuously deliver constant HUGE quantities and quality of new non-Russian blends of experimental crude oils…and even if the Baltic + Schwedt infrastructures were able to deliver exactly per requirements… still the Schwedt Refinery must also perform 100% despite the forcefully needed, mind-boggling modifications to adapt it to new and fully unexpected non-Russian feedstocks. Ref #1 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/opec-ministers-warn-no-increase-supply-coming-online
Be that as it may, to follow the European oil & gas game, there is no longer need to monitor what´s going on throughout all of Europe. Neither is it necessary to even monitor the group of countries with the most important economies. Nope. No need either to follow what´s going on, say, throughout Germany as the EU´s most important economy. No, none of that is needed anymore. Just follow closely what´s going on at Schwedt and the rest no need to schwedt it. Because if Schwedt doesn´t make it, Berlin & surroundings will break it, Germany will grid-lock, the euro currency will become elegant and colorfull wallpaper just like the 1920s Papiermarks, and the rest of Europe will go down the drain into an oblivion spiral. So, clear enough, the events at Schwedt will be the perfect indicators of the overall future. And if someone does not happen to like what´s happening, they´ll probably have to schwedt it anyway.
Ref #2 https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/pck-oil-refinery/
Well, for starters, everything is very secretive and really up-for-grabs. Problem #1 is that this is not an engineering project, it´s 99% political and with no technical backstop, period. Actually, and in more than one sense, both basic engineering and economics 101 fully oppose it. So being 99% GEO-political in nature ( you still follow ? ) one possibility is that we cannot know many details of the plan because politicians do not have one, just wishful hissy fits.
Or, Problem #2 it may just be a back of the envelope idea that no one – literally – is aware of what any of the possible proposed “solutions” or outcomes would mean. Pretty much like a bunch of teen-age bullies would plan their attack onto their own teachers at the high school parking lot. Bear in mind that this “idea” means that German and European costs at large will increase unbelievably, to the point of not being competitive even amongst neighboring countries.
Problem #3 is internal opposition hindrance, splitting the matter in two camps. Because it is very hard to accept that no clear-thinking minds remain anywhere in Germany and/or Europe for that matter. Oh, by the way, the Schwedt refinery is majority-owned by Russian state-owned company Rosneft not supposedly willing to refine non-Russian oil.
Problem # 4 is that, per Bloomberg… ” Berlin reportedly aims to find new suppliers* to substitute for Russian oil and resolve logistical problems* within six to seven months”. And then adds the killer phrase. “The measure will apparently be adopted whether or not the EU reaches a consensus on a Russian oil embargo.” I attest to the fact that many other sources besides Bloomberg repeat exactly the same wording rigorously transcribed above as if a confidential secret press release had been distributed. Who knows, possibly it was…
But whatever the communications approach adopted, it means that German politicians now in charge would want to fully work against Germany´s own best interests no matter if the EU wisely decides to postpone the practical joke of announcing it will ban the import of Russian oil… just simply because it cannot do that. It´d be mission impossible.
So I propose to coin the idiom ´Krautensuiciden´ as a new German term that Goethe himself would have approved.
Ref #3 https://www.rt.com/news/555542-germany-deadline-drop-russian-oil/
The now-famous Option (3) means the requirement to fully and definitely modify/retrofit all the Schwedt Refinery´s internal processes to enable the refinement of non-Russian oil blends which would now be received from multiple yet unknown experimental vendors that would supposedly continuously unload batches at the Wilhelmshaven & Rostock & Gdansk ports terminals in the Baltic Sea. Instead, today the Druzhba pipeline elegantly, silently and reliably delivers the extraordinary Russian Urals blend 24x7x365 to German satisfaction and in huge amounts while the Schwedt refinery processes and distills to perfection without any need of modifying or retrofitting anything there Heaven forbid .
So you now understand why I coined the term ´Krautensuiciden´ ? Ref #4 https://thesaker.is/why-russias-oil-ban-is-impossible/
So Schwedt Refinery Option (3) means to modify it for a blend of different non-Russian oils…and with no possible “toggle switch” to convert from one type of non-Russian oil blend to another…No meaningful contamination possible !! We´d have a forceful life-long linkage between one vendor and its supposedly constant, homogenous and very large oil deliveries, which would be different from other vendors and their supposedly also constant deliveries made to other EU refineries different from Schwedt. There is NO possible interchangeability here…So each refinery would have it´s own specific oil blend now, which means separate, isolated, dedicated storage and delivery means. Bloomberg adds
“ German authorities reportedly plan to use an old pipeline* linking the Schwedt refinery to the northern port city of Rostock, but that would require an upgrade* for the infrastructure, which currently only has the capacity to meet 60% of the facility’s needs. Oil can be delivered to Rostock* from a national reserve, located near other Baltic ports, i.e. Wilhelmshaven*.” Rostock may also supply other key refineries such as Leuna (Leipzig) and Plock ( Poland ). What is not explained is the tons of modifications and investments that have to additionally be made both at Rostock + Wilhemshaven + Gdansk ports which will be addressed later herein as much as possible in view of all the unknowns.
There is a lot to unpack from these 2 brief paragraphs from Bloomberg et al, so allow me to parse them out slowly.
- “new suppliers” means unvetted, experimental, not-coordinated, variable, probably only very partial small suppliers, with dozens of never coordinated and variable business associates at each and every single stage of the project from beginning to end from well-head to Schwedt Refinery. Russian sourcing is the opposite.
This means to find, negotiate, plan for, test, certify, contract & schedule fully compliant Russian-oil substitutes.
- “logistical problems” means all of what is explained throughout this article (and more) including References.
- “old pipeline” means a 200 km sometimes partially buried heavy structure built with obsolete materials and technology commissioned in 1963 many times patched-up already and most probably unable to be “pigged”-inspected properly or meaningfully, let alone be upgraded as needed. This 60-year-old Soviet-era structure most probably cannot be “fixed” either or revamped or retrofitted or pressurized as really needed by 21st. century standards. Lots of skeletons hanging inside many closets after several decades, now to be opened.
- “Rostock” is a not-fit-for-purpose port with only tanker berth No. 3 which accepts crude oil so handling & capacity is now very limited and thus also needs upgrading and retrofitting of equipment plus dedicated facilities including storage, handling and delivery capabilities. Also, Long Range (LR) 2 vessels are the maximum size accepted by this Rostock berth, thus limiting crude unloading volumes by each vessel.
Ref #5 https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/impact-of-the-russia-ukraine-crisis-on-full-shutdown.html
- “Wilhelmshaven” is a larger deep-water much better furnished port for inbound seaborne deliveries located some 400 km. away from Rostock port by land and 1000 km away by boat which is not anywhere “close-by” .
Gdansk is an equivalent and alternative well-equipped port but located in Poland 600 km. away by land.
Still, Gdansk would need to undergo improvements similar to Wilhemshaven adapting to Rostock new needs.
- “Schwedt” is the refinery that processes and distills all sorts of fuels and other products. By the required Option (3) it needs modification of new feedstock lines and infrastructure, an atmospheric distillation facility, a vacuum distillation system, a cat-crack unit, a visbreaking facility, an alkylation unit, a catalytic reformer, an isomerisation unit, and an ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) facility. Plus brand new storage facilities + handling equipment for Rostock feed to substitute the 24x7x365 smooth Druzhba pipeline. Not easy to do all that in 6 months (!)… rather 6 years. Contractors and third parties everywhere. I foresee plenty of claims & lawsuits.
PLUS all sorts of sensors, software & firmware modifications or possible purchases of new stuff (!!) which mean that the IT Department, just for oversight purposes, most probably will have to hire new personnel (most preferably grey-haired if available ! ) and contract third party vendors… all of that in 6 months time…while all of Europe does the same
But there is yet FAR more regarding enormous logistical challenges for unloading, storing and later delivering unexpected far larger quantities of seaborne batch feedstocks… and subsequently distributing such to the refineries where they are needed… Because the Russian Druzhba pipeline supplied both an extraordinary quality and also an incredible non-stop quantity of Urals feedstock oil. So now such volumes have to come from different sources, not just one. And that is why Gdansk and Wilhelmshaven step into the act. Accordingly, Rostock port facilities on the one hand do need to be deeply modified to both (a) receive larger inbound seaborne batch feedstock deliveries from abroad and (b) store & handle adequately (c) deliver as needed.… But still Rostock terminals need to receive yet more volume from Wilhelmshaven + Gdansk. So that means that both Baltic ports in turn also need to be modified to receive and store larger imported seaborne batch but ALSO to deliver adequately to the Rostock terminal. But that would still not be enough, so internal deliveries of oil feedstocks would come to Rostock from yet other sources via inland waterways + rail + road inbound and also to Wilhemshaven and Gdansk terminals… and even to Schwedt.
Summary of the ´Krautensuiciden´ agenda
The Schwedt Project faces 9 + 2 highly challenging, simultaneous & parallel projects all to be executed in 6 months.
- Wilhelmshaven + Gdansk : dedicated storage + equipment for frequent inbound seaborne batch deliveries
- Wilhelmshaven + Gdansk : dedicated logistics for outbound deliveries to Rostock port storage terminals
- Rostock : berth revamping for larger seaborne inbound oil tankers from Wilhelmshaven or elsewhere
- Rostock : dedicated storage facilities + handling equipment for larger, more frequent seaborne batches
- Logistics for internal delivery via inland waterways + rail + road inbound to both W. + R. storage terminals
- Rostock port – Schwedt Refinery: pipeline upgrade & revamping + modifications to receive Rostock feed
- Schwedt Refinery: new oil feedstock definition, testing and vendor selection, approval, certification & contract.
- Schwedt Refinery: retrofit and revamping modifications per Option (3) described above.
- Schwedt Refinery: enhanced storage facilities + handling equipment for large & frequent batch deliveries
Actually it´s 11 (eleven) simultaneous projects just to MAYBE have a lower-rated substitute of what Schwedt already has today… only that at a MUCH higher price… plus the high cost of all the unnecessary 11 simultaneous projects…
a 6-month blitzkrieg ?
Or six years ? Six months is a ridiculous timespan for satisfactory conclusion of all of the above. Quite frankly I´d be astonished if this idea ever sees the light of day. Actually it´s nonsense whichever schedule is adopted, but 6 months is beyond childish. By the way, 95% completion is not enough. But German Economics Minister Robert Habeck has said that six-months gives Berlin long enough to make the change. So one of us two is wrong, and I say it´s him.
Actually, way before 6 months we should know about the schedule non-compliance. The reason is Key Dates. Just like building a house, you can´t place the window frames if the walls are not there. Same for these projects there are key CPM – Critical Path guidelines and most specially Key Dates by which xyz needs to already be timely in place as planned, inspected, commissioned, permitted, etc. So if one Key Date is not met, the schedule cannot make progress from there on or, worse yet, may even blow up because the window for continuity of other stuff sometimes is very narrow. Timing is of the essence and many things just can´t be started unless xyz is finished first. Many of these are parallel or partially parallel activities. But some are almost 100% SEQUENTIAL which means that they have to be 100% satisfactorily concluded before going on to the next one. Oh, an additional detail is that if we care to believe Herr Habeck, all other refineries in the EU would also be attempting to simultaneously pull the very same trick as Schwedt. So 6 years sound far more reasonable than 6 months ? Ref #6 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61318689
Ref #7 https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germany-one-step-away-ending-dependence-russian-oil
the Rostock-Schwedt pipeline
The exotic idea consists in supplying the Schwedt Refinery from the Rostock Baltic port which would ´supposedly´ be receiving viable oil blends from yet-unknown vendors as explained before in great detail. But that would NOT be enough quantity no matter how stretched. So the hope and the prayer is that the same oil blends would also be unloaded at the Gdansk Baltic port (Poland) now fully dedicated for Schwedt, not for Polish refineries. Same for the Wilhemshaven Baltic port (Germany) with only one single priority, namely Schwedt, not any OTHER of the many German refineries all of which have not been assigned any sourcing yet, if any were possible (!) . In turn, Rostock would also prioritize Schwedt, not the Leuna Refinery (Germany) or the Plock Refinery (Poland). It´d be a game of robbing Peter to pay Paul. Or a circus number of Chinese plate spinners, which is impossible to work it out in practice. Maybe it works sporadically, but such logistics will not fly well most of the time meaning GAME OVER for Schwedt.
During the revamping & upgrading project of this pipeline, operational and environment considerations should always have to comply with the EU´s Green Deal spirit and wording, same as other EU Common Policies in force. And always working with safe and ecofriendly practices. Environmental impact assessments have to be completed, presented, approved, permitted and commissioned. Also any strikes or labor union problems would have to be avoided, with 24 x 7 activities no week-ends, no Christmas. Plus an extraordinary HR challenge regarding enough quantity and the right quality of management, staff, and all sorts of field personnel from port maneuvering and logistics, to IT contractors, to welders… in a fully unexpected 6-month pipeline & refinery project, etc. The pipeline trace would go through highways and urban areas with municipalities that have opinionated politicians… also pristine environments, rolling hills, valleys and ridges, forests, rivers, lakes, home to fish and wildlife with strong winds, rain and snow. The switch-over from the Urals oil to the new “equivalent” blend from yet unknown vendors is a most unfathomable and mysterious procedure.
Ref #8 https://www.eek-energy.com/en/news/petroleum/detail/news/oil-industry-prepares-for-oil-embargo.html
the refinery blues
The comments section of my latest article gained greatly from the input offered by SKovacs an excellent and friendly poster who shared his first hand 30-year knowledge in the oil & gas and refining business with us all. Please see link referenced below. Below I just summarize and/or quote what this most experienced poster had to say
- matched & mated : many EU refineries have been built to process certain types of oils found in Russia. The very design & build of these refineries (and petrochemical plants) was based on certain specific oil types within narrow variation in blend / quality and steady supply — variation normally of less than 15% vol/day — guaranteed for over 30 years (most commonly 50+ years). Obviously enough, the continuous supply of quality feeds is critical to the operation of a refinery or any chemical plant.
- obsessive compliance: adapting an EU refinery to new types of oils requires detailed laboratory knowledge of the new blend, and formal guarantees for its continuous delivery for decades, convoluted & lengthy contracts and procurement processes, extremely detailed engineering plans, manufacturing of parts, shipping, installation, testing, commissioning, optimization, permitting etc. etc. etc. before it can be declared “done”. Any element of this incomplete list, if missing, renders the whole affair a failure both technically and economically.
- guarantees: the above assumes guaranteed efficient and continuous shipping and receiving network(s) are always in place and fully operational (!) Such work involves thousands of people, complex processes and of course many billions of euros, regulatory permitting process, inherent lawsuits etc., i.e. A LOT OF TIME – years ! Europe deprived of oil/gas/metallurgical coal from Russia — and also iron ore — is unlikely to build much. Never mind the finer components that require other alloy metals which are also provided by Russia… Ref #9 https://thesaker.is/europes-mad-ban-on-russian-oil/
not your dog
Some may think that refinery feedstocks are like dog food, even interchangeable. Not true. Refineries are very closely matched and subtly calibrated/configured to very specific feedstocks difficult and time-consuming to substitute. Changes can and have been made but it requires lots of effort, money, dedicated facilities, experimentation, mistakes, trial & error, specific expertise, risk, and most importantly fixed, unchanging new feedstocks always complying with specs. Substituting the quality and humongous quantity of Russian oil feeds has never ever been attempted.
This means that Russia today supplies Europe with exclusive Urals grades of very precise and constant homogenous physical & chemical characterization that would be impossible to get from third parties fast enough and cheap enough in continuous enormously large quantities from different reservoirs wherever. So it´s a very delicate and tight matching already achieved between Schwedt and the Russian Urals blend, that most probably cannot be substituted
Ref #10 https://www.ifo.de/en/node/69417
the (very low) odds
Banning Russian oil means many things. Some are known to require — among other things — time, money, expertise, human resources, etc.etc. But some others are unknown and very complex. For example, finding many new different oils – from many new unproven vendors – that collectively and in a coordinated fashion ( ?? ) would constantly offer into the future — rain or shine, come hell or highwater — the very same homogenized profile of delivery, quality, quantity, price, service and enlargeability of feedstocks that Russia has reliably provided Europe for decades at low cost. Anything less and Europe will no longer be or perform or deliver as we know it. Skeptics please easily find the 6 (six) criteria that such oil feedstocks mandatorily need to meet at Ref #11 https://thesaker.is/why-russias-oil-ban-is-impossible/
Europe and Germany have been forewarned.
They better know what they are doing.
From todays’ newspaper:
The German government is reportedly planning to tear down Germany’s natural gas distribution network.
Last week, Patrick Graichen, State Secretary in Robert Habeck’s (Greens) Ministry of Economics, is said to have asked representatives of municipal utilities to begin planning for the “dismantling” of the network.
Graichen had referred to the timetable for the decarbonization of the national economy. “Of course, in 2045 there is no more gas in the network”
Passerby, thanks for the input. The additional question would be… how about Germans, would there be any left by 2045 in that case ?
Of course. They’ll get defrosted from their cryogenic state, feel 23 years younger than they look, and be ready to go.
Your article is technically valid. But you assume as given government wishes to keep oil refineries running.
What if not eveybody in government is convinced?
If you see oil refineries as a relic from the age of fossil fuel; then one oil refinery less will only convince more people to buy electric cars.
If you believe the energy of the future is solar and wind, closing an oil refinery is like closing a nuclear power plant.
And exactly what fuel source will those power plants use?
If we consider the speed at which the Germans are fleeing to places like Paraguay, México or Tanzania, where they are popping up like mushrooms, it will happen much earlier than 2045.
They obviously want to make the “decarbonisation” agenda irreversible. Ideally, bevor the electorate gets to feel the full brunt of the lack of energy and might feel tempted to reverse course, those politicians want to be sure that any such change in preferences isn’t viable any longer, for lack of supporting infrastructure.
This isn’t happening by mistake. This is fully intentional.
Chrissie, thanks for your input.
Yes, intentional you say….
Well, it might certainly be intentional, but then leaders everywhere better soon have the buy-in of the people. As I understand it, the proverbial man in the street knows nothing about “intentionality”. It´s always the Russians that did this (hahahhh). And when people realize — they will — that they were led fully and purposefully blindfolded into an intentional Plan without consultation… well, we might see the pitchforks roaming the streets once again. Cordially Jorge
You are correct, people *will* eventually figure it out, but will it be in time to make any meaningful corrections?
First, people tend to think that knowledge is power. There is no statement in the universe that is more flawed than that. Beyong knowledge there is understanding. You can have all the knowledge in the world, but if you don’t understand that knowledge, as well as its implications and consequences, it is useless to you. Actually, it makes you dangrous to society, because you are going to mis-apply that knowledge. Humans gain understanding primarily through 2 mechanisms: experience, and/or suffereing (the 2nd one seems to be more prevalent the past 20 years), with the ‘and’ that will be more applicable very soon.
Then there is also the matter of: do *enough* people understand? Like with everything else in the universe, “change” only happens once you cross a certain threshold (like with herd immunity). Up to that point, keeping on manilupating people seem to be very easy. A change will only happen once enough people have an understanding of the problem, actions, and consequences.
So, Germany will eventually figure it out (and some already have), but not enough yet to affect change, and I doubt if it will happen before irreversible damage is done to German and EU society.
Johan, I read you us two now on the same page.
Hmmm… food for thought no ?
Still, it could all happen either with a whimper (as you say) or a maybe BANG !
And such BANG with no previous buy-in from regular people will mean pain, revolt, pitchforks…
Modern communications technology could make a difference, social media, etc.
“The Saker” and other blogs help lots, starting with us two right here right now.
Schwedt people know about this also.
WE shall see…hmmmm again
Oh no, I think you misunderstood me. I agree with you that the end-result will most definitely be a BANG!
I’m from South Africa, and if you want to see how people react to gov decisions, some even as far back as 1994, that essentially shot the country in the head (like Germany is doing now), and became irreversible the moment you went down that road, you should come here. After enough suffering people will start to understand, and when they realize it is not reversible (at least not in their life time), they become angry and violent. Politicians, no matter from where, only do what is good for themselves (they are big on virtue signalling, especially if they have 2nd passports and run-away property on another continent).
Another example just last week was Sri Lanka. Not even 24 hours without fuel, and the violence started. At a certain threshold, all morality goes out the window.
It is however not only Germany that will schwedt. After brexit, Germany remained as the biggest productive contributor to the EU budget. If they damage their economy, the whole EU is going down with them. You don’t mess with your country’s energy needs on short notice, unless you really UNDERSTAND what you are doing (which no politician does). If you start running short on energy, your economy is the first thing that goes. When your economy goes, you lose the ability to reverse or correct that decision, which again directly affects your energy supplies. It is a fatal vortex where there is no escape from (just ask any South African).
If the EU and US politicians insist on continuing with this political posturing, they will crash the EU and US economies, and thereby dragging every other economy on earth with it. The only countries that have any hope of surviving this, are the ones that are almost completely self sufficient (specifically where it comes to food production, and power generation). As far as I know, the only country that falls in that category currently, is Russia. I will be very surprised by a country, where this doesn’t result in fairly widespread violence. If we continue down the current path, apart from a highly likely WW3, a world-wide French revolution is definitely on the cards.
But…having said that, it is completely unavoidable as far as I’m concerned, because the alternative is worse than war. What Russia is doing now, *had* to be done, even if only from a humanitarian and moral perspective.
P.S. – It was Sean Connery, playing Marko Ramius in The Hunt for Red October that said: “A little revolution every now-and-then is a good thing”. :-)
Johan, thanks for your deep-rooted analysis. Possibly Argentina and/or Uruguay may be self-sufficient also as you say. The only problem is defending the borders no ?
This paragraph of your is memorable Johan..
” You don’t mess with your country’s energy needs on short notice, unless you really UNDERSTAND what you are doing (which no politician does). If you start running short on energy, your economy is the first thing that goes. When your economy goes, you lose the ability to reverse or correct that decision, which again directly affects your energy supplies “
I’m not too familiar with the “internals” in Uruguay, but Argentina maybe. I do however see where you are going with that. Most of South America is in a situation where they “can” be self sufficient if things really do go bad, but they have one “little” problem that will actually work against them if that need should arise. All of them are experiencing very “subtle” western political interference. If they can get rid of that, at the very least from a perspective of the South American continent as a whole, amongst themselves they can easily survive a global economic collapse.
Defending your borders during an economic collapse? Russia most probably yes, but anyone else I’m not so sure. I think that if you do get involved in any kind of war during a collapse, all bets are off, as at least one side will be fighting out of desperation. In-fighting about oil and gas supplies have already started in the EU, and if a collapse should happen, will probably result in at least some wars between EU neighbours. This is just as bad as a nuclear war, because there can be no winners.
I’m really hoping that Germany is not stupid enough to go down this “oil-swap” route, as the consequences will affect every country on earth. We will all ‘schwedt’ like never before. This article that you’ve written should be required reading for all politicians, because they don’t have a clue about the forces they are playing with.
Many years ago it was told me that Germany would become a partner with Russia. All of Europe needs Russia if they hope to survive as an industrial power. This leaves the USA and UK in the interesting position of failure as global leaders. The questions that come to mind are many, but one stands out above the rest “ have the leader’s of this NWO became confused or insane” ?
Emmeret, you are getting to the essence now, good job well done short & sweet there.
Paraphrasing your own words, I´d say our NWO Western leaders have now become “insanely confused”.
So my tongue here got the easy part just taking advantage of your brain, the hard part.
What remains to be seen Emmet is if we are all going to follow such ´insane confusion´.
Germans did follow an ínsane confusion´ of sorts not that long ago, but it should be different this time around methinx, should it not ?
At least I´m praying for that possibility and even mention it as “Problem #3” in the ´Krautensuiciden´paragraph of the article above. Cordially Jorge
I don’t believe this is a zero sum game. There is no reason the the EU cannot partner with Russia and gain strength through that while the UK, North and South America, Asia, Africa all also do just fine.
Ips, yes, there are plenty of very good reasons for the EU and Russia to partner up and benefit together. That has been Russiás offer all along. But it´s the US and the UK that do not want that at all so as to conceal their own defeat. Worse yet, apparently and for the time being, they have also convinced the EU leadership about unnecessarily fighting Russia, except Hungary and maybe Turkey. So, we shall see. Cordially Jorge
” convinced the EU leadership”
Pindos (and their masters) practically appointed those clowns (main criteria is complete obedience). There is no need to “convince”, they simply order, and the clowns obey. There is some muttering sometimes, for public consumption, but if someone doesn’t toe the line he will be simply dismissed, if not worse.
The US’s role in blocking Nord Stream 2 blocked any collusion between Germany and Russia. It suppressed German European dominance and stopped it ‘fraternising with the (US) enemy’ via an unhealthy economic dependence. Moreover, the US wants to be the supplier of gas.
‘Insanity’ in those circles is a very relative term. I think what we see is the overlapping of two major Elite-trends:
1.) The Great-Reset scheme, mostly driven by the rentier-oligarchy (financial mafia) which also includes the ‘Thunberg’-project (aka Club of Rome).
2.) The absolute necessity to have 80% control over the globe in order to fully rollout above scheme, of which the US is the banner bearer.
For the second trend there now exists fundamentally very strong opposition in the from of Russia & China, they categorial reject such a configuration.
In face of this the empire must concentrate itself, meaning to maintain it’s military industrial complex and even expand it dramatically – this will only be possible if somehow a potential difference within the empire can be maintained, thus the trashing of Europe’s remaining industrial capacity, coupled with full ukrainization (Neoliberal destruction coupled with total fascisation, yielding several billions to bolster the center) of it – fascist russophobia, and having a large pool of manpower living off food-stamps very soon, which then is transformed into the fighting force to crumble Russia and China – not that this idea is gloriously ingenious but rather simply a result of the circumstances as described with the two interconnected trends – there is nothing else left – scrapping the barrel – so to speak.
Most likely this scenario will not fully play out simply because the center of power – the US – itself is becoming more and more volatile internally – with the likely result of a totally insane mayhem process within the ‘West’ while being engaged in mortal combat against Russia and China (and more and more of the global South) at the same time.
The Great Reset folks envisioned control of China and Russia, looting them both at will while the rest of the world hunkered down by candle light over their bug soup.
I think of their plan as a large and complex loom of the 19th century factory variety, with row upon row of spools spinning thread into the ever expanding textile. Now think of several children sneaking beneath the system, cutting the threads, swapping the spools, the children are China, Russia, Iran, most of Asia and the global south.
The system is suddenly in disarray, the spools that do work are so impacted that their contribution to the project is minimized if not useless entirely. What to do? Chase the children? That is when you find out the children have knives and surprises of surprises, they begin to hunt you.
That is where we are now. My money is on the children and their knives.
The Russian are probably ordering extra big buckets of popcorn by now…because the Euro drama is getting additional series by each weeks. New plots and twists keep building up.
Buit here is the ending spoiler…when the push comes to shove…in the end…the German will just open another account with Gazprombank.
Sorry for the spoiler.
Jim, put simply and briefly, I agree.
The pain would be UN.bearable no human would stand it. It´d not be an “effort” (for what ??) It´s existential and fully unnecessary, there is no comet crashing onto planet Earth, is there ? The current EU and German leadership are in for a surprise me thinkx. Chances are they´ll be kicked out miserably by the very same people and system that brought them to power. Very clumsy leadership today, very naïve, people are not stupid.
Clearly, the Germans are planning to go into hibernation at a sub-zero temperature each winter and to get back up and about each Spring. Interesting. Doubtless, the redoubtable Bill Gates knows the solution. I mean, if Soros can live forever, it should be easy to fix.
I am beginning to think Soros WILL live forever.
Jorge, your posts are full of interesting information (and thank you for that!), but please consider getting an editor to look them over before publishing.
For what it’s worth, I don’t doubt that Germany has the engineering capacity required to solve this problem (especially if they control the timeline at which a cut-off from Russian oil happens).
What if Russia is completely fine with Germany figuring out how to work with alternative sources, as long as – and this is the crucial bit – they realise during that process that they can do things themselves, without help from the empire?
I’m starting to think that a lot of what’s happening right now might be exactly about “waking up” Germany.
The author definitely makes a strong argument regarding the geopolitics of energy from EU perspective. Why would a country like Germany which is dependent on energy imports from outside decides to shoot itself in both feet and then forehead by replacing the already %100 working system from Russia with another one? Why not just shoot the forehead right away, if it really wants to suicide? If Germany has political problems with Russia does it mean it wouldn’t have any problems with other suppliers most probably from MD? Is the Middle Eastern geopolitical situation more reliable than the Russian one? Wouldn’t unknown factors in MD get in the way of supplies sometime in the future? To me that sounds more like a rendezvous with death than a wake up call for Germany or Europe.
maskazer, correct, this is a political project nothing to do with engineering. SaudiArabia has very little marginal compatible oil available for export and seems to be politically aligned with Russia.
Urals is also an ideal low sulphur low viscosity blend, not found anywhere else in large enough quantities per Nelson Complexity Index 9.8
Thanks for commenting maskazer
Hi Moon, well …find an editor you say ? Hmmmm….
I suggest to slowly re.read the article reminding that 95% is not enough, and that, in order to make any sense, every other refinery in the EU would have to be weaned off Russian oil also in 6 months …while Russia just watches idly and does not retaliate in any way shape or form…
Rereading my previous The Saker articles should also help
There is also the bureaucratic issue of such construction projects meeting international standards organization (ISO) documentation requirements under ISO 9001 (manufacturing), ISO 14000 (environmental) and ISO 15000 (laboratory analysis quality).
krollchem, good additional point. I´ll included in my next article. Thanks krollchem
Moon, I forgot to add that the Germans are excellent people and historically have made extraordinary contributions to mankind.
BUT… Germans are humans, not perfect, and have failed miserably in the (recent) past with no need to remind anyone what I am referring to, right ? This time around they are also once again dragging all of Europe with them down the drain for the only “reason” of following the US-led un-necessary Russophobia with the idea it would work and stop Russia´s rising star.
Moon, you are 100% correct in saying that while Germans and Europe flop, the Russians will not be sitting pretty and most probably will develop strong business ties and build oil/gas pipelines long and deep into China and from there to 85% of the world population, not the 12%-15% of us, okay ?
Jorge – any thoughts on the very interesting biological research info presented by the Russians? Especially in view of the African Swine Fever research (and a fairly recent outbreak of such in China . . . .). This happens to be an area where I have some degree of expertise (don’t ask!), and I’d be interested in your views, since I feel there is a lot more to this than initially meets the eye.
Phil, yes and no.
True enough, yes Sir, ” there is a lot more to this than initially meets the eye “.
Oh yeah…I kid you not.
But no Sir, I have no expertise or knowledge or views specifically regarding African Swine Fever, no.
Still, you came quite close there Phil as I certainly could have, trust me.
Even far more than on Schwedt matters, yes, believe me.
Phil, imagine a fully trained, very well-prepared, bright and capable ´fly on the wall´ listening, following, understanding every SINGLE word, seeing EVERYTHING in the very same room as discussed by topmost international authorities on whichever topic all amongst themselves very truthfully very relaxed for 10 hours a day sometimes, day in day out … for 55 consecutive years (!!!) no joke… Even “participating” (sorta) during coffee-breaks whereby some Big Shots could feel uncomfortable with certain questions that would arise…
But that´s something to discuss another day Phil, not here, not now.
And this is not about me. We´ve got enough stuff to schwedt out with Schwedt !
But still Phil, thank you guy for making me feel good and acknowledged with your question re African Swine Fever… hmmmm…
Must say I’m looking forward to this discussion. Bioweapons (and toxin weapons) are an interest of mine (as a result of working for “The Ministry”.
Germany will come up with pretty much nothing, I am living my whole life in Germany, and unfortunately, its beyond saving. The Politicians here are incompetent, stupid, never worked, just look at polls and twitter, and are just capable in finding corrupt ways to make money with companies and networking within their own party.
The German State brainwashed the people here in believing everything is fine, a lot of Euros are spent every year for the state media and the big media companies like Springer, Bertelsmann, Bauer, Burda, tax exemptions, advertisements and direct State help add up to almost 20 Billion a year. So Germany is really lost, the Industry will go, and then Germany will go the same path Russia went in the 90s, but without a capable leader like Putin on the horizon or with a lot of natural Ressources.
So many people will go out of Germany and Germany will be broke and deindustrialized, maybe for the better, I am disgusted at the overall sentiment here, the lies, the disinformation is off the hook, supporting Nazis with Hitler Tattoos is just too much for my stomach without vomitting.
Everything you say is also true here in the UK. Both the Left and Right are self-serving, corrupt f**ks. I suspect the majority of people in all European countries (and world-wide) would agree.
Whilst Germany should have the engineering capability, the capacity to meet the politically-imposed deadline is another question.
The “timeline” is NOT being controlled by the Engineers, rather than by the politicians (who have zero engineering knowledge). The various necessary steps outlined by Jorge will all need design, planning, materials spec. and purchase, then manufacture, assembly, commissioning and probably (being the EU) “additional steps” to satisfy the local bureaucracy prior to coming ion line in a meaningful way. Then we have the need for adjustment / fine tuning / minor modifications to fix unforeseen problems.
The above takes time. A LOT of time, and that’s in a smoothly-operating economy. The EU is already seeing significant problems in energy shortfall, and such problems reliably percolate down to the industrial manufacturing sector. The “Political Class” appear to want the shut off as a fait accompli in a very short time window (weeks / months). By comparison the engineering requirements will need a lot more time, certainly at least 18 months, probably longer.
The reality is that, even with a perfectly-functioning, non-resource limited economy, the required mods will not be in place much before Winter 2023, let alone Winter 2022. Will the resulting chaos result in political upheaval? We’ll all know soon enough.
Phil, good summary there, but…
(1) as you and I say, this is a political project, nothing to do with engineering and/or economics.
(2) no German engineering capability can overcome this degree of complexity depending on third parties.
Also, in my previous article here in “The Saker” there was a paragraph on “Franz marries Natasha” that has to be taken into account. Europe will not get anywhere with unwarranted Russophobia and will not do any of what it´s excellent engineers could do without inventing Russia as an enemy. Furthermore Phil, German engineering is TOPS, but sorry it is not magical. I mean, the Urals blend quality and quantity is EXTRA-ordinary and very difficult to substitute for it. Not even German engineers can pull such trick because third parties are involved.
Example, breastfeeding, yes, no joke.
Please allow me to go back to basics anyone would understand, even milennials.
Baby needs feeding, period, no excuses.
Any 16-year-old mother knows that.
So does Schwedt, no engineering can solve that, German or not German.
Now then, either baby has mother´s breast (Urals oil) or PLENTY of baby formula anytime of day or night.
In the case of Baby Schwedt, it´d now be ocassional / sporadic baby formula offered in tiny spoonfulls NOT in baby´s bottle to suck at leisure. Imagine the baby´s reaction.
I say this because Urals oil is supplied in ample constant over-abundant Durzbha oilpipe that baby Schwedt loves… and badly NEEDS. So now with the invented Russophobia, the Schwedt refinery, despite the fact of being used to Durzbha´s plentiness 24x7x365 now it´d be supplied thru very VERY very limited port facilities in seaborne batches without dedicated terminals far away from Schwedt. I tell ya Phil it is a logistic NIGHTMARE depending on far away sea lanes and Nigerian plus who-knows whatever oil fields, not on Russia´s expertise.
Let´s make it even simpler.
No port schematic in this whole wide world — even in Germany — can beat an effiient pipeline door-to-door supply such as Durzbha, none. Well in the case of Schwedt, mind you it´d be a very POOR port schematic all around for many different reasons already explained.
The other not insignificant challenge will be the economic impact of the necessary organisational form of such a venture.
The description provided, which involves so many third parties, reminds me of the Carillion organisational model and its impact which is explained here:
Not least of which is this problem:
“the prices of services exchanged between the component firms were often determined after the event, through the claims process, they were no longer informative about the marginal costs involved, but rather about the contract-management process. As a result, costs overall rose substantially although nobody could put their finger on who was coining it. Thirdly, it simply became enormously complex. A contract, after all, is executed between parties. The number of pairwise interactions within an organisation rapidly becomes very large – in fact, it increases by the factorial of the size of the organisation…..
….It will always be very difficult to get more efficient if you don’t know what your costs really are.”
It seems reasonable to surmise that the real world organisational complexities of the chosen model alone, never mind the problematic technical issues which have been detailed, will be sufficient to bankrupt German if not Europe.
Those Greeks with long memories watching this unfold will be adopting the word schadenfreude as an integral part of their language.
Dave, so that´d be fully open contracts + post-delivery pricing by claim.
Hmmm… what a MESSY MESS that not even ace footballer Messi would solve… Excellent input Dave.
I see no problem with the ‘unedited’ text – it’s more that the technical info is hard to judge.
I can’t speak to refrineries, but industrial processes are often surprisingly mysterious. Change one supplier of a seemingly ordinary material and 12 months later angry customers on the telephone. Been there, done that.
Anyone whose been involved with industrial processes can (painfully) attest to the general thread of the article.
On another note – My German circle of friends and acquaintances cover a wide range – in the last 2 months they have all gone from; ‘Putin is the Devil’ to ‘What’s wrong with a neutral Ukraine ?’
Still a considerable way from, get the pitchforks out, eh bud?
I can remember travelling to Hamburg in 2011 to watch a heavyweight boxing unification contest between Wladimir Klitschko (sadly overlooked by the Americans, well Vicki Nudelman, for Ukraine’s top governmental posts, I jest.) , the German crowd’s favourite adopted son and our very own British challenger David Haye. As sporting events go and I’ve been to hundreds around the globe this was the worst spectacle I’ve ever had the misfortune to witness. Between the 2 boxers 7 decent punches were thrown over 12 rounds, 5-2 in favour of Klitschko who was declared the winner. The contest took place at a sporting venue a dozen miles from the centre of Hamburg in the countryside amid torrential rain. I felt sorry for all those Brits who made the journey at great expense and were unable to find a mini-cab to get them back to their central hotels, hordes of them trekking on foot, drenched.
To the point Jorge –
The most interesting part of my long weekend was my hotel, very comfortable, great breakfast with 20 different types of homemade bread, meats, salads, fresh juices, the lot. No, what was the most fascinating aspect for me was the view from my bedroom window of the River Elbe and the constant stream of enormous ships carry goods various, I believe to the North Sea Gateway (I could be wrong ). Such a splendid sight.
The interval between these ships was 2 minutes in 2011 and I just wonder what the time interval is now, compared to then. I expect this interval has risen with much less traffic and should Germany go stupidly ahead with their desired oil embargo I expect this interval to increase even further.
The Elbe would be a great barometer for Germany’s economic wellbeing.
What’s wrong with a neutral Ukraine ?
How can Ukraine be neutral when run from Washington, is full of Nazis and bans the Russian language?
Exile – can confirm this from the viewpoint of the Pharmaceutical Fermentation Industry. We have to be very careful as to suppliers of materials, and unlike “traditional” microbiology where (relatively) undefined media are OK, our feedstock (batch feed) has to be amazingly closely managed, with supplier contracts negotiated “almost in blood” for decades hence. One of the many reasons why many drugs are so costly – it costs the Industry a LOT to produce them.
One observation: the issues facing the West vis a vis shutting off the pesky Rusky oil for onward refining are features not bugs, as software peeps would say.
It appears the WEF global plan is continuing a pace.
But WEF already failed in that they cannot get the whole world. Now it’s rather “catch as much as you can” politics. Russia, China, India, greater part of Asia, Africa, Latin and almost all South America – seems all they are beyond range of NWO.
Not yet, as long sovereign debts of the colonies are being serviced. Davos boys may see grim days once default wave starts and all system goes to hell. Once that happens (inevitable, however uncertain timeframe – controlled rollovers are a believable thing in infantile world), entire monopoly money game is broken. At that point it will not matter. Bazillion of trillion of “narrative” value returns to its natural value.
Marvellous! The mighty Germans seem to have lost any brains they ever had, and Habeck as economy minister is ensuring Baerback is not the most destructive member of the government. We need this mordant humour, Jorges. Thank you!
I see below the comment of moon of al maadi, trying to salvage some self-respect for the present batch of German Leaders, but Jorges has managed to dismantle any such effort.
Thanks to you Rosemerry, your encouragement helps me lots. And I don´t hide it by any means, I need it.
This right here right now the “The Saker” – Comments Section is my home.
And that´s why I publish here, to be with you guys, at home.
It may sound unreal or sad, but still true. Can´t help it.
When the Wall Fell, that key date remember?, German Chancellor Kohl had no Plan whatsoever for the case.
Deutsche Bank chief Herrhausen, Kohl’s best friend, was commissioned, and developed a massive infrastructure development plan for the Comecon. On his way to New York to present this as the way forward, he got a few meters from his house to be blown up by a previously emplaced bomb. He told his wife he would not survive. Look at Deutsche Bank today – a speculative pit of Morgan-Grenfell.
Message 1 to Germany – no development for the Comecon, only what Jeffrey Sachs did to Russia – shock therapy.
Then Treuhand (Development Agency) Chief Rohwedder came up with a plan for the DDR state industries – shot by a sniper from 1 mile away in his kitchen. (all blamed on lone terrorists of course).
Message 2 for Germany – any development would be considered a Fourth Reich by Thatcher and Mitterand.
And actually Message 0 for Germany in 1914 – no Berlin-Baghdad-Railway, no industrial development for the Middle East.
Now witness the pre-prepared financial warfare dealt out to Russia and next China. Imagine what that would do to Germany!
And people think this started with Ukraine Maidan, or the anti-development Greens?
To develop, or not to develop, that is the question!
Then Treuhand (Development Agency) Chief Rohwedder came up with a plan for the DDR state industries – shot by a sniper from 1 mile away in his kitchen. (all blamed on lone terrorists of course).
Kohl’s plan for East Germany was to absorb it as an appendage to West Germany for the benefit of West German industry – in essence to run it down, close much of the industry, privatise everything at knock-down prices, and grind down the East German people to dust. Rohwedder demanded that the plan should give priority to ensuring the viability of East German families and should treat workers with basic dignity. To Kohl’s plan he said emphatically “not over my dead body”. Then he was promptly murdered and Kohl went ahead with his plan. East Germany was destroyed as a viable society. That was the cause of the rise of neo-nazism in the former East Germany.
Wrong – Herrhausen’s plan was Kohl’s – not Jeffrey Sachs”. Herrhausen was murdered in front of Kohl – he knew he was next.
As Kohl said it was his darkest hour – dumping the Deutschmark for the Euro was already planned in 1992.
To impute Neocon looting to its victim – pure propaganda.
Today, look at the de-industrialization of Germany, the Morgenthau Plan in full force!
Now Russia and China take up development, industrialization ad did Germany previously – they are assaulted by exactly the very same Empire.
And 1914 was all about the Berlin-Baghdad Railway – exporting industrial development to the middle east.
And the old DDR was not developed, not the entire Comecon.
And look at the total destruction of US industry – only the MIC survives.
This anti-industrial Imperial Imperative is now being taught a lesson!
Then Treuhand (Development Agency) Chief Rohwedder came up with a plan for the DDR state industries – shot by a sniper from 1 mile away in his kitchen. (all blamed on lone terrorists of course).
Even Wikipedia alludes to a big lump under the rug, or as the Russians say, “The ears are sticking out.” Wikipedia claims Detlev Karsten Rohwedder was shot by a sniper using a NATO caliber rifle, but from a mere “63 meters” away. The German government named the killer as a Red Army Faction member who was conveniently “killed by police in a shootout in 1993.” Was that cover story 100% false, or did the government get control of the RAF by 1991 ? Can anyone provide some details ?
If they don’t know what they are doing, they can always eat cake.
The image of Robert Habeck and the question of a 6 month Blitzkrieg is apposite. I’ve heard him talk about Schwedt as if its a minor problem, something to take in ones stride. Most of the German Greens are dangerous romantics when it comes to de-industrialization, particularly those like Habeck who have a penchant for Wagner.
His wife, Andrea Paluch, has just published another children’s book (Habeck and her have done dozens together), that is curiously entitled: “Die besten Weltuntergänge: Was wird aus uns? Zwölf aufregende Zukunftsbilder”(Klett Kinderbuch, 2021), roughly translated into English: ‘The Best Doomsdays: What Will Become of Us? Twelve exciting images of the future’ I’m not kidding!
Habeck, like his wife is first and foremost a literary scientist, together they have published English translations of the poets Roger McGough, Ted Hughes and W.B. Yeats.
Don’t expect any rational decisions made by these German Greens they are sleepwalking the economy into a disaster zone.
German Economic Affairs Minister Habeck, PhD in Philosophy with :
„Die Natur der Literatur: Zur gattungstheoretischen Begründung literarischer Ästhetizität“.
“The Nature of Literature: On the Genus-Theoretical Justification of Literary Aesthetics”.
Analysis here (use Edge) :
Apparently (need more time) Habeck looks at the new concept of Metanoia, mental upheaval, from Anke Hennig and Armen Avanessian.
Interesting that Ray McGovern, ex-CIA analysist, mentioned Metanoia, a paradigm shift that is right now in upheaval.
Counter upheaval, anyone?
Ohhh, nooo. Germany run by mediocre artists ? The last time that happened had a happy ending in 1945. But it was not so happy until then.
On the German / Polish border is Schwedt situated. Appropriate.
How many Poles / Germans does it take to open an oil tap?
Maybe Schwedt can declare independence from German? Probably they would be supported by most of German industry.
(erhmm … come to that, what about the whole of Germany declaring independence from the Federal Government?)
Surely the conversion could be completed at least as fast as deciding to build a high-speed rail line from Berlin to Munich (/sarc)?
Or the 25 year saga of the BER, not to mention Transrapid from Munich to the airport.
China demonstrates how to do this, and should be called in to get these projects in motion.
but but but … BER was completed, even if it took 25 years. I am sure the Schwedt project could be completed in less than 40 years.
Maybe they can call in the Russians to manage the conversion …
Actually, the Rail line would be the simpler project. There the will is enough and you can have it in 3 years. Juts look at the *GERMANS* buildign high speed rail in China.
Here it is way more complex. Too many unknowns. Unlike in the rail construction where the environment is a known quantity – gravitation does not change, the landscape is given, etc. etc.
That said, adapting a revinery to process different crude is not that hard. You could sacrifice the machinery and simply risk it. Result will be that machinery designed for 30 year will be worn out in a year. And you will not be able to produce some special high-purity products. But it can be done.
What is hard is adapting a refinery to process different blends EFFICIENTLY. As in economic efficiency.
user, true that regarding unknowns and complexity . But it has got to be EFFICIENT otherwise no Berlín etc etc as briefly explained in “keeping score” paragraph. Anyways it would be the same if in 1 year no Berlin no ?
There is only one issue at play here.
The current West /European/ leadership has absolutely no people with technical backgrounds in leadership roles.
Even the mid-level buerocrats are “social-sciences” folks and not in the “tranditional” social sciences as they were known just a hundred years ago. These days even mathematics is being stripped out even from the Lawyer curriculas. So the people who exist these “education” institutions have absolutely no point of reference. They are like the children in a city who will tell you milk, eggs and meat are provided by a supermarket.
There are a lot of excellent people who “know their &@#” but NO ONE OF POWER LISTENS. And they do not listen BECAUSE THEY DO NOT UNDERSTAND/ as in comprehend/ THE LANGUAGE OF PHYSICS.
This is why arguing logic and “hard facts” just does not work. They people would now know a stone from a sponge until it hits them in the head.
Ah, yes. The “journalists” are of the same sort. Back in the time when “normal” people worked their way into the newspapers, these people had some background knowledge from their original fields which they would pass on in their writings. Now, 90% of the media folks are universally alumni of the “soft” social sciences, mostly of journalism courses. These people are even MORE off the real world than the politicians they are – suppossed – to confront. So they do not confront them. They are physically incapable of that regardless of will.
And the rot is progressing. There is an ongoing push to strip out basic school curricula even more, to “not overload the children” which is being pushed by folks who barely made it at school so headed for social sciences studies which were “easy enough” for them.
Until something hits these folks in the head, they will not change course. And even then, they will not likely comprehend it was them hitting the wall and not the wall being malicious in hitting them.
Once you understand this state of affairs, their actions become way less crazy. They even become rational – from their perspective.
This is also why the cannot comprehend Russia or China etc. They live in a La-La land and so they do not understanf why the Russians or Chinese put such a high value on physicals and on security. The basic living means and security are a given, so why do these pesky Chinesse, Russians etc. so bother with them. Right? Right ??? … “They MUST have some ulterior motives to act like this.” “No way they are so bothered to have what to eat and not be shot at. Just like that. They MUST have some other ulterior plans. Like we do. Surely!”
Absolutely right. They live in La-La land. When Habeck, German Economic Affairs Minister- check above his PhD- returned from Washington recently, he talked of a “new renaissance” in the transätlantic relationship. How gaga is that? Biden on his last legs, most unpopular President ever, and this über-romantic Green German politician believes in a Renaissance. Perhaps he believes that instead of Willy Brandt’s Ostpolitik, Germany needs a new Westpolitik? You are right they live in La-La land.
This article paints a clear picture of what is in store. He probably thinks Germany is actually “winning”.
“Their basic problem, is that they don’t like people, and want to get rid of as many of us as they can.
They do not want things to get better, they want things to get considerably worse. They thought they were doing well, with their covid jabs, and their propaganda \.
At the moment the full blown kill show, is very much on the road.”
These comments by Tony_Opmoc nail it as far as I can see. It’s not about whether they are stupid or evil.
They have an anti human (transhumanist) agenda and are hell bent on reducing the worlds population, micro chipping the rest and creating a technocratic fascist one-world-government.
Look how pro-nazi all the western governments have suddenly revealed themselves to be.
Russia stands in the way of all that hence the visceral hatred.
However humans are waking up and it is certainly “game on”. Remember what the Russian woman said about how the more crap they throw at us, the more we unite and come together?
Convert the Schwedt Refinery to produce diesel from bio-fuel sources such as rape seed oil. As a secret project the quantities do not matter – a few litres hand produced in an out-biolding will do.
Alongside this just buy in the needed distillates – possibly from Chinese teapots which get cheap Russian oil. Diesel is diesel – really doesn’t matter what is the feedstock.
Then you have a massive PR junket where you announce that Schwedt is now producing totally green, sustainable fuel and no need to buy Russian oil in the future.
I seriously doubt that Goethe would approve of “Krautensuiciden”. First, he would have thought of a suitable german Word – “Krautkopfschuss” comes to my mind as a good choice; it relates to “Kohlkopf” (cabbage head, Kraut is made of Kohl) and “Kopfschuss” (shot in the head) – and second, English was not very common in his time.
I fully agree with the notion that the present German Government is a bunch of fools. I do however not agree with some of the points Mr. Vilchens makes.
Any refinery which is not in the comfortable position to receive its crude oil by pipeline must have the expertise to coordinate the flow and the required quality of crude which is delivered by ship, train or whatever means of transport. Thus the engineers and logistics experts in Schwedt can achieve this as well. It will be more costly, troublesome, require considerable efforts – but it can be done. To redesign the refinery in order for it to process crude oil of a different quality ought to be possible, too. Again, at great costs and efforts, but possible. That would of course mean the definitive end for refining Urals Oil in Schwedt.
All of this fits the “Green” agenda (both the minister of Foreign Affairs, Mrs. Baerbock and the minister of Economics, Mr. Habeck are Members of the “Green” Party): “Decarbonizing the economy”, russophobia and the mad spleen to be able as well as obliged to “rescue the world”. None of this fits the needs of the average German or €uropean.
I doubt that even the complete closure of the refinery in Schwedt would really be the “tipping point” for the €uropean branch of the empire of lies. It would cause considerable damage to millions of people, but I am not sure that the victims find the strength to stand up and challenge the profiteers of warmongering and sanctions – the current policy in Washington, London, Brussels and Berlin, which I perceive as a very welcome boost to some western businesses and oligarchs. Not so much to the “deplorables”.
Tom, thanks for your valuable input, your points are well taken.
(1) Goethe is not my forte. It’s a “gotcha” as you seem to know much better than me on this, you must be correct. Tom, one of my many problems is to make my articles ‘lively and readable’ for a very broad audience including many RE.publishings in other blogs with very broad (huge) audiences, MSM media and politicians included. So I was trying to be “sarcastically attractive” with a widely understood term not linguistically correct really.
(2) No Schwedt means no Berlín etc etc etc so we disagree on that
(3) Your other comments I have replied to in my response to Moon and maskzer above please scroll up
You were on the right track in selecting Goethe as your authority. In addition to his many other skills, he was fluent in English — so fluent he translated Shakespeare into German with iambic pentameter fully intact.
SEIN oder NICHT sein, DAS ist HIER die FRAGe.
However, the commenter is correct. Goethe would eschew “suiciden” as a foreign word.
David, true that.
Yes, you are 100% correct as “Krautensuiciden” is a completely foreign word.
Still, the problem for authors is getting through somewhat somehow to a blind, collective audience.
Or, in other words, the problem is just being read, period.
Authors may write (lots maybe?)… but being read is a different story…
And I take it this audience is English (not German) so if I achieved a bit of that — as I seem to have done — I feel to be doing my job I guess. And I was just being a bit sarcastic to make it colorfull, that´s all, you and Tom know that.
For I´m sure that you and I — if one-on-one — all alone us two as good people that we both are we would talk, express ourselves, and write differently adapting to each other in the event of us both surely willing to communicate for the ocassion as we are doing right now. Very difficult indeed no ?
Still, I admit, Goethe is not my forte and Tom got me here with my pants down (sorta) so he wins I lose.
Still I enjoyed and learned with your input regarding Goethe´s fluency in English even with ´iambic pentameter´… hmmm… At any rate, as from now on I´ll just wisper to the mirror: ” SEIN oder NICHT sein, DAS ist HIER die FRAGe.” Yes !!!!
I enjoyed the article very much, thank you.
John, bear hug to you guy, thanks for taking the trouble to thank me.
Jorge, please keep these excellent articles coming, fantastic!!!
Godspeed, yes Sir !
You now oblige me, well done.
This is home guys, so what I need is a pat on the back.
Healthy bear hugs also allowed
Koala bear hug to you Godspeed0511 !
Very informative article, I didn’t realize just how complex the supply chain really is. What a completely want to shed light on is the Battle of the Bulge, if this had taken place on the Eastern Front no one would have ever heard of this Battle. It would have been designated as a skirmish, if put into comparison with the massive Front Battles that were common on the Russian Front!
kosta, you are correct.
True that 100% guy.
Years ago I have talked extensively with first hand witnesses on the 1943 Russian front and it is exactly as you put it.
kosta, supply chain are very complex, many times even more so than imagined.
But under current circumstances supply chains are a downright miracle…
Or nothing, they just crumble, beware many times today they do not exist
Thanks for acknowledgement kosta
I am researching for a book on Army Group South’s invasion of the USSR in 1941, It reminds me a lot of what is going on today. Keep up the good work, and let’s pray for a just peace!
I like most of the content on these pro Russian sites, but you guys are laying it on too thick with your narrative of Russian oils being of a certain consistency and blend. Other oils can do the same thing and they can adjust refineries or production runs of different kinds of oil. American refineries process all kinds of oil, from the relatively good oil in West Texas to oil from tar sands in Canada
Where you have problems is from countries like Venezuela who have let their production capacity deteriorate, but that’s not the norm.
You guys have a lot of credibility right now so don’t overplay this angle.
TempoNick, thanks for your favorable comment and input. Your point is well taken.
Still, I disagree and am fully convinced I make my case with lots of evidence you are dismissing.
My article also has enormous references which drive my point home.
Please just re.read SKovacs comments, for example.
SKovacs has first hand 30 years of experience in refineries and LNG/LPG and believes otherwise.
I have still many more references
Also, 2 additional points to my article and also commented above to other posters such as maskazer or Moon at the very beginning, for example.
At Schwedt them need the same Russian quality OR adequately reform the whole shebang.
It could be done, but it is NOT easy and takes years, not 6 months.
And then also needed are huge HUGE huge QUANTITIES of homogenous constant blends in humongous quantities, so how would them achieve that, exactly ? American refineries yes they do process many kinds of oils, true that… but they do NOT change them. Constant homogenous feedstocks for 50 (fifty) years.
Thanks again TempoNick
«Other oils can do the same thing and they can adjust refineries or production runs of different kinds of oil. American refineries process all kinds of oil, from the relatively good oil in West Texas to oil from tar sands in Canada»
I think that a refinery can be built to be flexible in the type of inputs, and then it costs more and is less efficient, or is optimized at design time for certain types of inputs, and then it is cheaper and more efficient. What the author of this piece seems to be saying is that Schwedt and other refineries and ports were built on the basis of 30-50 year guaranteed supplies of Urals oil types, so it is going to be quite expensive and difficult to change that.
Or perhaps the german government is going just to take time: the plan of the USA is to “yeltsinize” again the Russian Federation, with a “color revolution” or by any other means, and once it has become an USA protectorate like Ukraine it will be USA (and BPShell) oil companies that will be running the Urals oilfields and supplying good stable quality oil to the germans, so in the end no change will be needed at Schwedt or elsewhere.
And thanks for the 100% correct interpretation.
Yes Blissex, I am saying that “Schwedt was built on the basis of 30-50 year guaranteed supplies of Urals oil types”… so it is going to be quite expensive and difficult to change that… OR even logistically impossible.
Strong handshake from Jorge
” American refineries process all kinds of oil.” But apparently not oil imported from Russia.
Always perk up when I see this author’s articles. Always appreciated German engineering: Leica, Sennheiser…who knew it also included that oily substance without which nothing moves? Thanks!
Thanks to you. We´ll still have to see how Germans perform this time around.
Germans are humans, not perfect at all.
Do I need to explain myself ?
Germans are being forced to commit suicide by Americans because England wants usa to bankrupt and destroy Germany and Russia both. As it tried in 1st world war (plotted by Milner group) and 2nd World War.
In 2nd world war plotted by england to make Germany fight Russia and destroy each other, the Soviets lost 27 millions while Russia lost 20 million people but england and usa combined lost only 700 thousand people. All because 3/4th of German army fought on Eastern front and 80 percent of German causality was by the soviets. English, as usual were watching the war from side after putting light to the fuse.
Hitler’s Generals surrounded 300K Brits at Dunkirk, and were ready to finish the job, when Hitler stopped them, saying, ‘we are not in the killing business !’
The Brits crow about Dunkirk which was a deliberate gift by Hitker to Brutish, as if it was an heroic act when it was a case of coward English fleeing from the enemy after getting permission to flee, given by Hitler.
Only Hitler’s personal command to halt prevented Guderian’s tanks and troops turning Dunkirk into an English bloodbath. And as typical of the English cowards they fled tha battle field as soon as possible-hitler gave them 3 full days ! All because vile coward liar Churchill promised something to hitler only token resistance to his ultimate aim-to destroy russia and (thus from brutish point of view germans too.
First world war was also plotted by the english pirates trio of Cecil Rhodes, Curzon and Milner way back in 1899!
All wars in Europe have been consequence of english plots to make two European nations (usually the two strongest ones) fight each other. Including 1st world war and then 2nd World War.
Gulf war was plotted by witch thatcher, first Iraq war by criminal tony blair- this Syrian war again by english rats which borne their ugly child ISIS.
Tony Blair, who, when occupied Iraq, claimed that “we will become the British Empire again,” meaning that he will occupy the rest of the world too!
Now the british are repackaging their dream as global Britain. Only when wars become unpopular, the english stop taking credit for that and let blame be placed on Jews.
and stupid people including hitler blamed jews while it was all along the english parasites who l destabilise, plot and run the war (but those cowards do not fight in beginning-they come late to feast on already weakened enemy of the day.).
“Military conflicts can end quickly, while the energy configuration of the world has been set by decades of investment and hard work of many generations of professionals,” he added. “There is no need to undermine or destroy it.”
It will be interesting to see how long it takes the German people to ignite with rage at the bureaucratic incompetence. Maybe the highways, full of cars stopped with fuel problems, etc, etc.
I think we are about to discover that our world is run by people, very different from the ones within the light of our attention, and with very different agendas.
Will the meek sheep discover their hidden powers of rebellion?
Very interesting article, as an added obstacle, I wonder if there is enough water depth for Suezmax oil tanker in the Baltic sea, Rostok, Gdansk or even Wilhelmshaven. I think, probably not so.
Unpassant, you have just made this Comments Section worth the while.
Honestly, I had not thought about that tremendous (possible) make-it-or-break-it limitation.
Thanks guy, you have just enriched the debate in a very focused manner.
Let´s imagine the possible — yet variable — source countries and the ocean freight lanes viable from wherever. Pirates anyone ? Unpassant you have just brought us to where German politicians do not want to go. Namely, operational details, as this is not philosophy is it ?
No Sir, it´s down-to-earth economics we are talking here.
Unpassant, if you were closer by I´d invite you to a couple of nice long Scotch with ice, just like Andrei would I guess. And by picking somewhat your brain and mental data base I´d learn even more.
Thanks again, Jorge
I had thought the EU was all in on de-industrialization and using Bronze Age tech to thrive during the Maunder Minimum? Europe is losing it’s “European” ethnic characteristics after all in swiftly becoming part of Africa and the Near East so in ten years Islamic Europe from Granada to Prague without Russian crude will be agreeable to LNG from USA.
This comedy is a WEF joke. Russia too is hamstrung by her participation in the actually existing Global Order. The Transnational puppet masters of Ubu Roi pull the strings in the Court of the Crimson King.
In German, the word “schwedt” does not exist (unless it is a slang term that I do not know).
“Sweat” (noun) is “Schweiss.”
“To sweat” is “Schwitzen.”
Nitpicking, I know, but still worth pointing out both for the author’s and the readers’ edification.
Oh, it does .. the author says it is “Schwedt, a small greyish-dull industrial town in North East Germany right next to the Polish border ”
I thought it was really creative to riff off of the name of the town to — they’re gonna sweat! Writers may be creative ya’know.
to live not only the physical life, but also the symbolical life:
schwedt, etymologically means:
“On August 1265 Schwedt firstly was documentarily mentioned i the form of Scwet, the name derives of the Slawcian and means ‘Light’-
Am 23. August 1265 wurde Schwedt erstmals in der Form “Scwet” urkundlich erwähnt. Der Name kommt aus dem Slawischen und bedeutet “Licht”.
mundanomaniac, good search there !
Well it´d seem then that now Germans with no need will puts the lights out on Licht Schwedt.
“What is not explained is the tons of modifications and investments that have to additionally be made both at Rostock + Wilhemshaven + Gdansk ports”
So, the EU was supposedly freaking out (since pre_Maidan days) about being energy-dependent on Russia.
Russia just had to adhere to EU “competition” rules. At least when it came to gas.
Well, looks like they ARE energy-dependent on Russia for oil, so get over it.
“Wha! wha!, no, we prefer to be energy-dependent on Poland.”
What am I missing here?
Dear Taffy, you are not missing anything, you just are 100% correct.
Yes, Germany is now dependent on Poland and WHATEVER viable old blends sources are able to get to Poland if and when they ever get there… For example, Nigeria.
This whole thing is so nonsensical dear Taffy that´s why you and I and the rest here with both our feet on the ground and the head between our shoulders cannot make any SENSE of it. Good sign though, that means we have not yet gone bananas like others have.
Thanks for responding. I am half German—Berlinerin, sogar. Germany is being destroyed. Very disturbing. Seems like the Wagnerian “mystical” side of Germany is overwhelming the “logical/technical” and even gluttons-for-work side. IMO WW1 was basically a resource war. I agree with those up-thread who point out that the the animus against Germany and its development resided among Britons who already in the 1890s plotted to eliminate a competitive industrial and intellectual powerhouse, halt the Berlin-Baghdad Railway, put the kibosh on Germany’s military bolstering and training of the Ottoman Army and support for Ottoman ec. development via the B–B Railroad. The Milner Group + Churchill/Britain/France wanted the Ottoman Empire—and its oil—for themselves. IMO this is what WW1 was about. And the NATO pressure on Russia is, similarly, a resource war. Germany’s leaders are criminally negligent dreamers who have been co-opted to a “mystical” vision of Germany just as nutty as the Nazis’.
Regarding Krautsuicide, I understand your point with this portmanteau, Kraut being “English” for German person. My suggestion: Krauteigentor—“Kraut own goal.” Or, Krauteigentorschuss —“Kraut own goal shot.”
Great article. Took me to the map.
Schwedt looks like a very pretty little place with lots of nice scenery and a decent complement of old castles and Naturschutzgebiete and bike paths.
I also checked out a webpage for the Rostock-Schedt pipeline:
Operator: PCK (Rosneft Deutschland GmbH (37.5%), Shell Deutschland Oil GmbH (37.5%), AET Raffineriebeteiligungs-Gesellschaft mbH (25%))
Parent companies: Rosneft (54.2%), Shell (37.5%), Eni (8.3%)
Current capacity: 140,000 barrels per day
If Rosneft is an operator (and owner) of the pipeline, how does this fit in with Germany’s new plans?
What does PCK have to say about all of this? Does Germany propose to nationalize this pipeline?
Is this capacity enough?
Thanks again for your work in putting so much info together in one place.
Dear Taffy, you are correct in more than one way. Specially with German language terminology I know nothing about. With ´Krautensuiciden´ I was just trying to be ´sarcastically attractive´ to make it more colorfull and lively for our English-speaking audience here. No offense meant though. I have always admired Germany and the German people, and still do.
Just a couple of data points before my reply to you really starts Taffy. One, I wrote this piece in a real hurry and I sure hope it doesn´t show, at least not too much. Because after having read tons of stuff and checking out this and that here and there… and as Amarynth now the sitting Editor while Andrei is away knows all too well … my instincts told me that the timing was 101% ripe for this piece. So I had to rush. And I was not mistaken in view of Russia Today´s front-page title some 4 hours after “The Saker” publication per ” Russian crude is irreplaceable warns former Lukoil boss to EU” – advising Brussels not to proceed with the planned oil ban at https://www.rt.com/business/555923-russia-oil-irreplaceable-lukoil-alekperov/
So then, I submitted this piece for publication in a hurry and Amarynth — poor soul — read, copy-edited, approved and published it 04:30 am her Sunday morning time (!)… Just sayin´…
So then only AFTER publication did I have a little time available for visiting Schwedt City´s web site etc only to find that — sorry, my bad — Schwedt has a cute and very attractive look to it, quite different from (supposedly) the greyish dull visual I depicted which is not that way really. And I also had some time to look into real Schwedt neighbors and people spontaneous statements all of which truly broke my heart because their real-life experience with the refinery already let´s them know at least 50% of my description without reading any.
(1) I have not ever visited Schwedt, but from what I could find and see thru internet actually it is not dull nor grey. It looks very pretty with tidy surrounding sceneries I wish I had close by own home. We can´t know for sure, but possibly the people would be all work and no fun… and in that sense some could consider it “boring”… but not old-fashioned myself as I´d also find such strict work ethics very attractive.
(2) the Schwedt people know all about my concerns, and after reading a bit I actually harbor the healthy hope that Schwedt neighbors will demand a serious well-informed decision and not this Russophobia for the geopolitical sake of it and nothing else them poor Schwedt souls paying the bill because the Schwedt Refinery project simply will not work out well. They already know that there.
(3) In a nutshell, I described the above in Problem #3 under the ´Krautensuiciden´ paragraph close to the beginning.
(4) Apparently the Russian Schwedt Refinery majority owner (namely Rosneft) will suffer confiscation just as Germania Gazprom did under an already approved years ago “National Emergency” Law. You can google plenty of news along those lines if you wish to. We´ll have to wait and see how this unfolds, but of course Rosneft will not approve any of this nonsense for very good technical reasons explained already herein.
I sure hope we here are contributing to such 100% rewinding of the EU and German decision re banning Russian oil. But yet again, it´s all political, nothing technical to see here, just shamefull unnecessary negative impact all around.
Best to you Taffy from Jorge
Natural gas commodity prices in Europe and the U.S. 1980-2022 Published by N. Sönnichsen, Apr 27, 2022
In 2022, the price of natural gas in Europe is forecast to reach about 34 constant U.S. dollars per million British thermal units, compared with 5.2 U.S. dollars in the U.S. The steep increase in prices is due to the fallout from the energy supply shortage which began in 2021 and further constraints resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war. Since 1980, natural gas prices have typically been higher in Europe than in the United States and are expected to remain so for the coming two years. This is due to the U.S. being a significantly larger natural gas producer than Europe.
European and US prices since 2010 ($/MMBTU)
2022* 34……….5.2 (estimate,21May much higher)
2021 16.1…… 3.9
2020 3.2……… 2 (pandemic influence huge)
2019 4.8……… 2.6
2018 7.7……… 3.1
2017 5.7……… 3
2016 4.6……… 2.5
2015 7.3……… 2.6
2014 10.05….. 4.37
2013 11.1……. 3.5
2012 9.6……… 2.3
2011 8.6……… 3.3
2010 7.3……… 3.9
The average price of 2010-19 been $7.4/MMBTU. It more than doubled 2021 and seems to be 6 times higher during this year if not even more higher.
1 MMBTU eqvivalent to 293 KWh energy or 28,26 cubic meter of natural gas.
Interesting to me that the Yanks had an effective oil embargo against Japan that pushed them to war. Yet Germany was supplied oil from Venezuela to keep them afloat, so they could more affectively destroy Russia?
So now we embargo Euro-corpse to start WWIII ? Using proxies from everywhere and oil from nowhere. In the end in seems as long as someone is making unfathomable profit building obsolete armaments, all is good for the Empire.
It’s like major pharmaceuticals, they needn’t concern themselves with safety or morality, as long as there’s profit it’s a success we should all applaud.
For those rattling sabers to maintain their own accounts, they seem to be instead playing right into the hands of our supposed enemies. If Germany where really feeling threatened why would they build such an intricate, codependent, crucial relationship with someone they now consider an existential risk? America acts like a jealous lover, if I can’t have them neither can you>
Putin politely, logically, insisted NATO back off, they couldn’t, we now face all sorts of threats that Putin caused?
Seems the Anglos found in the files a copy of that famous Morgenthau plan that had been discarded once for co-opting Nazi talents and using the German military and industrial capacity for something Unthinkable.
Seemed to be reasonable this time with no costs involved for implementation (everything already settled via the pandemic game inspired by Malthus, no need for continuing to bribe all vasal puppets anymore, all relevant actors are in deep shit and effective blackmailing is guaranteed).
A particular bonus is the state of the mass media parroting the conventional wisdom while any discourse had been totally silenced, thus this will be executed for free by the people themselves. Leo Strauss’ philosophers rule.
Never mind discarding the Ukraine, Russia will have to pay for the mess created there, the jackpot to be pocketed entails smashing a serious competitor and expanding the collection of Latin American Banana republics eastwards to Europe proper. All necessary procedures are well tested and established. This is a better option compared to a whimper resulting from imperial overreach,
But there is a much bigger question: why would the Russian Federation *want* to sell essential fuel to governments that want to defeat it and break it up in smaller states?
The obvious answer “money” does not seem right: states need money from foreign export earnings mostly to buy abroad fuels and food, and the Russian Federation is an exporter, that is self-sufficient, in both.
Why does the Russian Federation need the money from exporting fuels to Germany and other countries whose governments want to cut it down to size and anyhow are not willing to sell to them any useful supplies?
Those are questions my friend that President Putin and the higher echelons of the Russian Government , Gazprom & Rosneft management will be discussing weekly.
In say 3-4 months with the long queues at the petrol stations and power cuts are commonplace Germany will likely snap out of its coma induced state.
Russia exports because it makes a lot of money – which will increase further – from such. Further, it does not feel threatened militarily. Remember Van Der Leyen and her soldiers with broomsticks?
Because Russia is smart enough to see the long term, you reason in tit-for-tat arguments. Russia sees Europe nations as children under the care of abusive parents (the US and the UK). European nations aren’t the enemies, they’re plainly manipulated by the real antagonists of Russia. Of course that’s not a flattering metaphore considering the USA have practically no history compared to Europe. Liberalism destroyed a lot of european culture, unfortunately.
JohnDoe, the Western world has a hard time understanding that Russia is Eurasia. Meaning Europe + Asia.
Yes, up to the Urals Russia is Europe. But then, aaaalllll the way to the Pacific it is Asia. We in the West do not understand the Asian component that Russia has. Sure we do understand that Asians are different. Maybe because their slanted eyes make it obvious they are different, I dunno. But Russia and Russians are EurASIANS And communications-wise there we fail miserably. Just sayin´
6 months is a long time in politics, will Scholz and the evergreen US puppet Annalena Baermuff still be leading the German circus?
As much a puppet as Frau Merkel was she never folded like a cheap deckchair to America whims. Hell, Obama was tapping her phone.
Will someone/group in Germany arise and expose these treasonous scumbags. Even if it’s just temporary and bring back some sanity to Europe.
Another wonderful article Jorge, thank you.
I still can’t really believe what is happening to Europe. And the Germans, whom I’ve always admired, having carefully scooped out their own brains with a spoon, now propose to commit slow-motion seppuku rather than accept that the enemy they need to fear lurks across the Atlantic, a big fake smile pasted on its evil countenance and waving a fistful of crappy useless F-35s.
pasha, I couldnt have said it any better myself.
Thanks for your input pasha
Everything “woke” turns to shit as someone once said. This entire issue is a symptom of being woke. The morons in charge are not there because of how intelligent they are but rather how woke they are. This is true throughout the EU, UK and US.
I don’t know much about this subject especially at the detail level but I agree it seems nuts to turn away from the easy Russian supply option. But let’s say they are intent on doing just that in the wider geopolitical game.
So what is the likelyhood that the EU will turn to the ME for oil and gas (again)? and would that option serve US and Israel interests as well? Just asking didn’t Israel find large offshore gas deposits a decade or two ago and reverse the flow to Egypt? Wasn’t at least part of the motivation for toppling Syria about a gas/oil pipe line?
I’m sure EU and US affiliates have been flying ground penetrating radar over the globe to such an extent they know where the “money” is exactly, its just a question of who profits! It seems to me that as usual we the people will pay the cost of change.
Maybe a large part of the Ukraine conflict is just about motivating a change of supplier but again we should ask who profits??
Allister, no oilpipes available from Middle East, only seaborne batch delivery
Also, not the right quality oil blends Schwedt needs
Furthermore, not enough marginal barrels available to change the equation significantly
Worse yet, politically not well alligned with Germany or the Western world
Schwedt is the largest refinery in Europe, a troglodyte that only Russia can feed.
In sum, Schwedt is a mess that the Middle East will not solve.
Germany tried Qatar for gas but Germany would not agree to a twenty-year contract.
On a broader context, given the EU’s reliance on nuclear power generation, let’s not forget a 40% dependency on Russian enriched uranium. Indeed, supply continues despite sanctions: to Slovakia, Hungary and the US. (Russia’s State Atomic Energy Corporation Rosatom has not been sanctioned by the US.)
G, I addressed that point in a previous article per https://thesaker.is/europes-mad-ban-on-russian-oil/
Germany had 15 nuclear plants in operation. The last 3 operating nuclear plants in Germany were scheduled to be decommissioned permanently in 2022. Part of the “Green Agenda” in the EU is to eliminate nuclear plants. France does not approve this, but is having technical trouble with its nuclear plants. France has said it will shut down 50% of its nuclear plants for critical maintenance this year at the worst possible timing imaginable.
Russian enriched URANIUM
Still, please do not poke the Russian bear any further OR they can literally leave Europe in the dark & freeze.
In non-emergency situations I’d expect the waterfall schedule creation for this project to take at least six months. The spec writing and bidding at least as many, partially concurrent with scheduling. The permitting 18 months in a rush. Then you might be able to start work pretty soon.
Shortly after that you’d find everything was rushed, there are issues. Three months into work, six weeks behind schedule. There aren’t enough skilled tradesman, 14 major components will not be available when assigned in the critical path schedule. The project manager, well the second since the first died of a stroke during planning, quit because of a nervous breakdown.
I wouldn’t want any part of this project beyond supplying health and safety personnel on a day rate. It will be only chaos and terror.
Lex, you sound truly knowledgeable and your conclusion makes a lot of sense. So for thesis-credibility purposes, it´d be great if you could very briefly outline the highlights of your experience, no names, no details.
Lex we agree that 6 months is out of the question, maybe 5 years huh ? And all for nothing, just way more expensive both investment-wise and final products pricing. All just for Russophobia ?
I’m a consultant (industrial hygiene/occupational health) who works on large demolition and construction projects, including oil and gas. But those are usually on the transport side (pipelines and terminals) rather than refineries. So I’m familiar with the requirements of large and complex projects generally. But I’m more the type who goes towards a refinery fire than builds new ones.
I’m involved in a $1B+ US government infrastructure project that’s needed to upgrade shipping. Originally the bid for the overall contractor was supposed to be awarded in February. We’re now told mid-June. In December we were all told how schedule dependent this project is and how when the award was issued we’d have to move as quickly as possible. Everything was time dependent.
This sort of project (the refinery / transport issue) is just so big and so complex that I laugh at the sort timelines printed in newspapers. They just aren’t realistic. Something like this I’d say is going to be a minimum of three years if the project is treated as an emergency with no limit from cost and everything goes perfectly. (Including expediting environmental permitting.) 5-6 years under normal circumstances with things going well and 10 years in many cases where reality and plans don’t meet amicably.
Lex, thanks for your description exactly as requested. By the way, I guessed right, your knowledgeability transpired correctly, you KNOW this stuff Lex. And without your hands-on experience but still with years of listening to those like yourself and others… well I also agree exactly with your timeline guesstimates.
Now then, you and I know what the consequences are.
Sometimes I wonder what the leadership has in mind because… I mean… they are not going to succeed. They should know that by now. I mean, you and I know they would be exposed to people like ourselves. With these articles the matter has now hit Main Street.
So would the current EU and German leaders backtrack and pull a 180 ? That will not help them either, forcing them to concede they were dead wrong and that Russia matters lots for Europe. I mean Russia IS Europe guys !!! Look at the map, read history… So let´s welcome Russia as business associates, trading partners, etc etc, not necessarily being FRIENDS (??) but not making Russia an unwarranted enemy for Crissake…
Does anybody dare to guess what the ´political outcome of this mess will be ?
Reality will force and outcome very very very soon methinx…
Thanks again Lex,
As I just wrote to my Moscow correspondent:
” It is obvious that Russia’s resources are available to all comers for a fair price and contract on the world market. But the UK and the USA have a history of having to CONTROL the sources of anything that they want/need. Instead of simply writing and honoring a contract. This pattern is very clearly described in Clive Ponting’s A New Green History of the World, chapter 9. The USA and Britain were not content to purchase, say, rubber and coffee from Brazil, or coffee from the Dutch. No, they (and their associated transnational corporations) had to conquer territories in Africa so as to set up THEIR OWN supplies and dictate all the terms of production. And of course make ALL OF THE MONEY that could be made by such exploitation. And make sure that no value was added in the source country. I reckon it is exactly the same with Russian oil. Only the Russians are able to defend themselves, unlike the natives of the South Africa, Burundi and Indonesia and New Caledonia. ”
Actually, regarding value added, maybe Russia should do all the value adding at home in Russia instead of continuing to send unrefined oil to Europe . . . ???
Taffy, thanks again for your input as it makes us all THINK collectively as we should.
It´s better and safer that way. Being isolated as I am is “okay” for starters… but then must be exposed in public for verification, reconfirming and expansion reasons. Please do keep your comments coming in, good stuff Taffy. So should everybody else. The only silly question or comment is the one not made. If it´s such an obvious question well the easier it´d be to answer it… or not !!! You´d be surprised.
(1) Michael Hudson has written and said LOTS about rhe US multinationals strategy from his first-hand experience at Chase Manhattan etc many decades ago.
(2) I know jack about petrochemical value added, but dare to risk my neck by saying it´d be dangerous business because of technical and commercial reasons. Just let the consumer country refine what they want, how they want it, when they wanted and as they want it… all at their own risk. It´s easier, smoother, and safer to deliver bulk high quality oil they´ll always need thru the same oilpipe to many countries simultaneously (approx.) and let them work out what they want. Imagine if the refinery today instead of Schwedt were to be located in Novo-Gorloska !!!
Back during the winter our company had a townhall with our executives and the head talked about where investments are going and said the governments of the world are investing some 700 billion over the coming decades in hydrogen fuels. There is a mad dash to get rid of fossil fuels which of course will never happen. Oil will never leave us except if peak oil turns out to be true. Hydrogen though is another matter and we are in the process of finishing building our first hydrogen compressor. Parts, parts, parts though?
Hydrogen however makes me kind of laugh about the whole process because I remember when working for Expo 86 in Vancouver almost every day Ballard Power systems was in the news and the hype over it all. Today Ballard fuels guess what? Forklifts. I mentioned this to a former engineer Julian and he actually worked for the company for a short time and said well we did make money on the stock but yeah the only company that will be able to bring hydrogen online is Toyota. There the only ones that have the resources and such to bring it to market really?
700 billion? Plants like this one in Germany may be on the chopping block permanently if they do indeed find a way to bring hydrogen online.
Loop Energy is one of the big players in the field now and guess what Russia is apparently already invested in this to? They have working a hydrogen test bus in Moscow I believe. Shane was all excited by the news in the media? that was over 8 months ago now lol?
If Russia though is also heavily investing in hydrogen that makes me suspicious about Russia’s oil reserves?
More can be gleaned here for any interested.
I emailed this article to a friend and his reply:
“Hydrogen is great, but despite all efforts it will never be “well to wheels” green solution…the “green solution” would be less people living in a stone age world…but that is another topic, outside of the programming of the matrix we are living in LOL”
Wow or woe rather if we really knew the truth, though for me it begins and ends with the Alpha and Omega. His words and book is the only real source of truth. I’d admonish a return to it and Him quickly.
Excellent but the truth is unpleasant….
Complexity is control by the self appointed aristocracy = Inbreeding.
Freedom of thought, freedom of choice appears chaotic on the surface and its name is “Renaissance.”
Germany is dying…
Putin maybe Russian to the core but he spent years living in East Germany, speaks the language and he knows the animal back to front.
That is why this article is excellent…even an academic primer. If you understand this article you understand how Putin thinks….its more than a “tad scary.”
Aaron, gee what to say…
I better not say much and just send you a koala bear hug and a glass of good Malbec for ya if I may.
Thank you so much for your words although Aaron not sure I deserve even a small percentage.
Let alone the capabilities and brain power of someone of the stature of Vladimir Putin himself.
Still, many thanks Aaron.
‘A story, older than Rome’!
We are watching the looting of Europe in the same way as the English East India Company, looted India in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, a destruction from which it is still yet to fully recover. The company was so rapacious in the way it stripped every ‘last leaf from the trees’, that it drove itself into bankruptcy! Such greed can never be satiated, it destroys everything, even itself! This will be the fates for Europe, under the whips of Usury, ‘Divide, conquer, and steal’! There is nothing in these European/Russian struggles which does not contain the shadows of the debt bankers!
William Dalrymple, in ‘The Anarchy’ wrote:
‘In many ways the East India Company was a model of commercial efficiency: one hundred years into its history, it had only thirty-five permanent employees in its head office. Nevertheless, that skeleton staff executed a corporate coup unparalleled in history: the military conquest, subjugation and plunder of vast tracts of southern Asia. It almost certainly remains the supreme act of corporate violence in world history. Historians propose many reasons for the astonishing success of the Company: the fracturing of Mughal India into tiny, competing states; the military edge that Frederick the Great’s military innovations had given the European Companies; and particularly the innovations in European governance, taxation and banking that allowed the Company to raise vast sums of ready money at a moment’s notice. For behind the scarlet uniforms and the Palladian palaces, the tiger shoots and the polkas at Government House always lay the balance sheets of the Company’s accountants, with their ledgers laying out profit and loss, and the Company’s fluctuating share price on the London Stock Exchange.’
‘With no stake in the just governance of the region, or its long-term well-being, the Company’s rule quickly turned into the straightforward pillage of Bengal, and the rapid transfer westwards of its wealth. Before long the province, already devastated by war, was struck down by the famine of 1769, then further ruined by high taxation. Company tax collectors were guilty of what was then described as the ‘shaking of the pagoda tree’ – what today would be described as major human rights violations committed in the process of gathering taxes. Bengal’s wealth rapidly drained into Britain, while its prosperous weavers and artisans were coerced ‘like so many slaves’ by their new masters.’
‘Before long the East India Company was straddling the globe. Almost single-handedly it reversed the balance of trade, which from Roman times on had led to a continual drain of Western bullion eastwards. The EIC ferried opium east to China, and in due course fought the Opium Wars in order to seize an offshore base at Hong Kong and safeguard its profitable monopoly in narcotics. To the West it shipped Chinese tea to Massachusetts, where its dumping in Boston harbour triggered the American War of Independence. Indeed, one of the principal fears of the American Patriots in the run-up to the war was that Parliament would unleash the East India Company in the Americas to loot there as it had done in India. In November 1773, the Patriot John Dickinson described EIC tea as ‘accursed Trash’, and compared the potential future regime of the East India Company in America to being ‘devoured by Rats’. This ‘almost bankrupt Company’, he said, having been occupied in wreaking ‘the most unparalleled Barbarities, Extortions and Monopolies’ in Bengal, had now ‘cast their Eyes on America, as a new Theatre, whereon to exercise their Talents of Rapine, Oppression and Cruelty’.
Great quote, and Dalrymple is spot on (I love all of his writings and lectures).
Up-thread I mention another valuable short “seven countries in seven days” type overview of the economic/social/environmental/financial rapaciousness of the empire builders and their associated corporations: chapter 9 of Clive Ponting’s A New Green History of the World, pp. 171-99.
Germany is setting itself for breakup. It is not being talked about a lot, but Germany is not immune to separatism. Conservative catholic Bavaria identifies more with Austria or even France than rest of liberal protestant Germany. And Eastern Germany was never fully integrated and it is still its own country.
Honestly I would be surprised if all these fatuous declarations from Germany were more than grandstanding. We already saw that with the refusal of EU nations to pay in rubles. All of them with half a brain quickly folded. People seem to forget western politicians are first and foremost professional liars. In time of elections they lie to the people and then quickly forget all their promises. This time they’re doing the same to lick the boots of the US and Brussels.
When it will become apparent removing Russia of the equation is impossible, they will find pretexts to carry on as usual. You can be sure Macron and Scholtz are not calling Putin to admonest him about the war, they’re most likely telling him the situation as it is, that they’re strangled by the US and the incompetents in Brussels. Putin isn’t naive, he certainly accepts it as a fact. That’s why you see so little inflammatory rhetoric from the russian side compared to the western side. It’s not in the interest of Russia neither France and Germany to see an escalation of the animosity between the parties, but the latters plainly have little choice considering the current political climate in the west. Of course if they were less cowardly they would rejoin Hungary and Turkey in their political stances, but they probably fear it would risk an implosion of the EU since the Baltic states are completely losing their mind over Russia.
The WEF grand scheme is certainly a thing, but I seriously doubt the war has anything to do with it. It’s much easier to get global compliance by using medical concerns than by the means of military conflicts. The COVID-19 pandemy demonstrated that.
Again that little detail: nobody had to pay in rubles, they could pay whatever to a Russian Gazprombank account (would need to open their own account).
They were ranting about doing it going against the sanctions before they folded and said the contrary. They’re surely incompetent but not THAT incompetent to not understand the mechanism, they were just playing chicken with Russia. And Russia showed them time and time again it’s a bad idea to play chicken with a bear. The less power politicians have the more they gesticulate, invariably.
In the UK in the 1960’s it was thought cars and trucks would replace the train.
In what is called the Beeching cuts, government closed railroad lines.
If you have a railroad line, all you have to do is dig up a small piece of the rails, sell off a small piece of the track bed or demolish a single railroad bridge, and you make it impossible for the next government to reverse your action.
Now we are sixty years later. The idea of replacing trains by cars and trucks has turned out to be flawed. But we destroyed what we had before, and turning back is difficult.
Today in Germany government thinks solar and wind will replace coal and nuclear.
But it is not that we are closing coal and nuclear power plants. It is that we are dismantling them, making it impossible for a future government to reverse what is done now.
Najprostszym wyjściem byłoby wyłączenie Schwedt z eksploatacji.
I poleganie na imporcie paliw z krajów UE.
Kilka europejskich rafinerii zostało kilka lat temu zamkniętych.
A były dostosowane do ropy pochodzącej z Bliskiego Wschodu.
Ich ponowne uruchomienie byłoby wyjściem?
Dwie duże rafinerie w Polsce- Płock i Gdańsk, w ciągu ostatnich 10 lat ograniczyły zakup rosyjskiej ropy o połowę.
Czyli z 27 milionów ton, do 14.
Zastępując ją ropą bliskowschodnią.
Wymagało to stopniowej modyfikacji ciągów technologicznych.
Rafineria gdańska pracuje wyłącznie na ropie bliskowschodniej.
Skoro w Polsce udało się zamienić skład mieszanki, to zapewne i Niemcy by sobie poradzili, jak z tego wynika.
Bardziej poważnym problemem wydaje się Peak Oil w krajach arabskich.
Zdaje się, że nie są w stanie zwiększyć wydobycia.
Sankcjonowanie Iranu, niestabilność Libii, zadania dywersyfikacji nie ułatwiają.
Może przydadzą się Autorowi dwa artykuły polskiego specjalisty od rynku paliw, omawiające szczegółowo
amerykańską grę o rynek europejski i jej implikacje.
Translated page here:
Taffy, great translated article there.
I will cite it as Reference in future article.
Good job, thanks.
Better to resolve the issues with Russia than try and ship in other types of crude oil.
Anyone who knows how refineries work with the fractionation towers and petrochemical & waste extraction etc… knows how costly and the time it would take to deal with this.
The shipping costs from elsewhere and time delays, and are their enough bulk oil tankers anyway ?
And does Middle East, Sth America, Africa, Asia have enough supplies to send anyway ?
And perhaps they do know what they are doing – object is to kill carbon / heat emissions from oil in EU it appears regardless of consequences due this climate crisis agenda. UKN situation is being used as an excuse for this.
“They better know what they are doing.”
They’ve shown no signs of this so far. The puppets are blinded by believing their own propaganda. I’m not sure if reality is an option for fools like that. However, it is the only option for everyone else.
Jams, regular innocent peacefull people may react violently though.
This is Major League stuff, leadership has been kicked out before for far less important consequences.
To make things worse, people are daily sold consumer society values that would vanish in a matter of minutes.
Let alone market economy principles, best deal, best price, best vendor conditions.
This is OPPOSITE, just sayin´
Keep comments coming, good stuff to make us all THINK together collectively
” feedstocks are like dog food, even interchangeable” It’s even recommended to gradually mix the new dog food with the old to make sure your dod doesn’t get sick!
Excellent informative piece, only showing how European leaders are placing their people into Third World conditions as we speak. War devastation potentially within six months to a year …without even a shot fired!
So how do they do it? Well according to Paul Craig Robert? Bribes! Pure and simple, The US simply pays the leaders bags full or money. He didn’t even say that the US threatens their lives. No doubt that happens to ,as other people have said but he doesn’t . His experience was simply..bags of money for all the leaders to sell their people downstream with not a care in the world.
A typical, large oil freighter can hold 2E6 barrels of crude. Samples are on the way to the labs before the vessel ties up at the unloading point, and production changes and run adjustments can be made in real-time.
Absolutely cannot be done if small shipments of varying sulfur and heavy metals and API gravity are involved. Such as from a pipeline fed from several sources.
Enginer01, EXCELLENT first-hand data I gather. Thank YOU oh so much.
Engineer01 could you please share with us your take on what seaborne feedstock batches from yet un-known sources and un-known volumes would imply for the CPK Schwedt Refinery with a crude oil processing capacity of approximately 12 million tonnes a year (Mtpa) ?
Of course the Rostock port limitations are essential as explained in the article above. The main one is that Long Range (LR) 2 vessels are the maximum size accepted by the only available Rostock berth No.3 maximum draft not known but findable somewhere at the Rockstock Port web-site
The PCK Refinery handles Ural crude imported from Russia with a Nelson Complexity Index of 9.8. It produces a range of refinery products, including petrol, diesel, aviation turbine fuel, LPG, extra light heating oil, heavy fuel oil, bitumen, benzene, toluene, xylene, and sulphur.
The Schwedt Refinery requires an atmospheric distillation facility of 11.48Mtpa capacity, a 6.3Mtpa vacuum distillation facility, a 3Mtpa catalytic cracking facility, a 1.84Mtpa visbreaking facility, a 420,000tpa alkylation unit, a 1.53Mtpa catalytic reformer facility, a 575,000tpa isomerisation unit, and a 96,000tpa ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) facility.
Thank you yet again for your EXCELLENT input Engineer01
Upthread we had an excellent question posted by @Unpassant that also matters LOTS per
” @Unpassant – May 22, 2022 at 12:12 pm EST/EDT
Very interesting article, as an added obstacle, I wonder if there is enough water depth for Suezmax oil tanker in the Baltic sea, Rostok, Gdansk or even Wilhelmshaven. I think, probably not so.”
Ursula von der Leyen has either gone bananas or is plain stupid thinking that people are as stupid as she is.
” The EU has kept buying Russian oil to deny Putin an even larger war chest, the EU Commission President claims ” The president of the European Commission has said that EU nations continue to buy Russian oil, despite pledging to fully cut energy dependence on Moscow, to prevent it from selling crude elsewhere at a steeper price.
“If we immediately cut – as of today – off the oil, he might be able to take the oil that he does not sell to the European Union to the world market, where the prices will increase, and sell it for more, and fill his war chest,” von der Leyen explained.
“… where prices will INCREASE ?????….”
The EU explains the absence of Russian oil embargo.
Them continue to buy Russia´s oil so that Russia cannot make more money selling it at higher price in world market. So this is Europe´s sacrifice we are now witnessing ???. Ursula is stupid thinking that people are as stupid as she is.
The reason that Europe keeps buying Russian oil is because it has no choice other than to keep buying Russian oil. It tis impossible for Europe not to keep buying Russia´s oil. Why you ask ? Read “The Saker” articles of mine you´ve got 3 and more coming.
Daily oil consuption is round 100 millions barrel per day.
Now , US politics of sanctions have already reduced productions levels on just 3 countries : Venezuella : -3M, Iran : -1.5M, War in Syria : -500K , thats already 5% of your daily oil production that are not available. Now add a ban on Russian oil : beween 10 and 11M.
Now let’s play RISK : US “regular” gallon price is above federal hourly minimum wages in some states, you are in Putin seat , what did you do ?
Are there even enough crude oil tanker ships in the world to supply Germany or Europe for that matter? The same for LNG ships? How many would it take?
SKovacs is our highly knowledgeable and first-hand 30-year experience poster.
A month ago he said the following :
“…. the above assumes guaranteed efficient and continuous shipping and receiving network(s) are always in place and fully operational (!) Such work involves thousands of people, complex processes and of course many billions of euros, regulatory permitting process, inherent lawsuits etc., i.e. A LOT OF TIME – years !…”
re LPG / LNG
“… There are not enough vessels — oil tankers nor lNG tankers — to replace existing pipelines. At least, a few dozen more are needed. How long and what does it take to build these? Who would build them? By when ?
* European countries are extremely bureaucratic, so say ~20 years to have 1 LNG terminal ready where this is possible and if not vetoed by the local council. Meanwhile, a pipeline must be connected from the terminal to the existing grid… with further complications at every level. What capacity should these terminals have vis-á-vis the related new pipelines? Nobody can know that today [and thus adding even more load to timing demands]
*Transit times on the tankers change and existing EU southern pipelines are probably at full capacity already.
*Tankers are far more costly to operate as liquefied gas has to be kept liquefied re power-hungry refrigeration.
*Tankers have a more costly service life than other bulk tankers, if only for the regulation/inspection requirements. So therefore they are a higher risk with higher cost per cubic meter of gas transported vs. cheap, reliable, safe, environmentally friendlier pipelines.
*the EU needs several LNG terminals to receive and process liquefied nat-gas. The sites have to be carefully chosen, their expensive environmental impact assessments completed (which can take 5 to 15 years) with engineering design that can also take years with limited room for direct carbon copy of other designs, plus ground preparation construction would take 1-2 years + manufacturing of plant and modules (usually in Korea and China, would they now agree ? ) which need contracts, capacity, materials, etc, lots of time and shipping.
*By the time all is said and done ~15+ years went by per first-hand knowledge…
*All LNG terminals are owned/built/operated by consortiums of gigantic multinational companies, not governments. They cost 10’s of billions to design and build, which need to be borrowed from banks.
*The borrower must prove that it has a solid plan with guarantees in place to repay the loan with interest.
*The owner/operator of the terminal has all sorts of other very important liabilities.
@Passerby: The fuel for transportation is just one product refined out of the oil. There is a whole bunch of other products – chemicals, plastics… I’m suspicious that “Green Fanatics” never heard of “fossil” resources consumption during all “ECO” friendly things production. The Volvo automotive calculated a carbon footprint of the e-car production and it’s so high in comparison to classical engine car, that you have to drive 70.000km at gas-engine car to equalize the difference…
@Supman yes, of course, today petrochemicals & plastics are part of everyday life.
Today Russia is collecting ever larger amounts of money from oil exports. And if Russia continues to sell its oil to “friendly” countries such as China and India — even at a discount (!) — … as it most probably will…it will also continue to benefit ever more by higher market prices induced by – precisely – the Russian oil ban the EU is promoting. As long as Russia is not withdrawn from world markets — not just maybe eventually from the EU — it will continue enjoying the market conditions induced by current foolish EU policies. Russia is actually selling just a little less oil and making FAR more at higher prices…
Go Germany, grow a spine, stop being guilty and stand up to the Modern day PutiniZt and PutiniZm!
Love from New Zealand