By Pepe Escobar, posted with the author’s permission and widely cross-posted
Only self-sufficiency affords total independence. And the Big Picture has also been keenly understood by the Global South.
One of the key underlying themes of the Russia/Ukraine/NATO matrix is that the Empire of Lies (copyright Putin) has been rattled to the core by the combined ability of Russian hypersonic missiles and a defensive shield capable of blocking incoming nuclear missiles from the West, thereby ending Mutually Assured Destruction (M.A.D.)
This has led the Americans to nearly risk a hot war to be able to place hypersonic missiles that they still don’t have on Ukraine’s western borders, and so be within three minutes of Moscow. For that, of course, they need Ukraine, as well as Poland and Romania in Eastern Europe.
In Ukraine, the Americans are determined to fight to the last European soul – if that’s what it takes. This may be the last roll of the (nuclear) dice. Thus the next-to-last gasp at coercing Russia into submission by using the remaining, workable American weapon of mass destruction: SWIFT.
Yet this weapon can be easily neutralized by rapid adoption of self-sufficiency.
With essential input by the inestimable Michael Hudson I have outlined possibilities for Russia to weather the sanction storm. That didn’t even consider the full extent of Russia’s “black box defense”
– and counter-attack – as outlined by John Helmer in his introduction to an essay that heralds no less then The Return of Sergei Glaziev.
Glaziev, predictably detested across Atlanticist circles, was a key economic adviser to President Putin and is now the Minister for Integration and Macroeconomics of the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU). He has always been a fierce critic of the Russian Central Bank and the oligarch gang closely linked to Anglo-American finance.
His latest essay, Sanctions and Sovereignty, originally published by expert.ru and translated by Helmer, deserves serious scrutiny.
This is one of the key takeaways:
“Russian losses of potential GDP, since 2014, amount to about 50 trillion rubles. But only 10% of them can be explained by sanctions, while 80% of them were the result of monetary policy. The United States benefits from anti-Russian sanctions, replacing the export of Russian hydrocarbons to the EU as well as China; replacing the import of European goods by Russia. We could completely offset the negative consequences of financial sanctions if the Bank of Russia fulfilled its constitutional duty to ensure a stable ruble exchange rate, and not the recommendations of Washington financial organizations.”
De-offshore or bust
Glaziev essentially recommends:
– A “real de-offshorization of the economy”.
– “Measures to tighten currency regulation in order to stop the export of capital and expand targeted lending to enterprises in need of financing investments”.
– “Taxation of currency speculation and transactions in dollars and euros on the domestic market”.
– “Serious investment in R&D in order to accelerate the development of our own technological base in the areas affected by sanctions – first of all the defense industry, energy, transport and communications.”
And last but not least, “the de-dollarization of our foreign exchange reserves, replacing the dollar, euro and pound with gold.”
The Russian Central Bank seems to be listening. Most of these measures are already in place. And there are signs that Putin and the government are finally ready to grab the Russian oligarchy by the balls and force them to share risks and losses at an extremely difficult for the nation. Goodbye to stockpiling funds taken out of Russia offshore and in Londongrad.
Glaziev is the real deal. In December 2014 I was at a conference in Rome, and Glaziev joined us on the phone. Reviewing a subsequent column I wrote at the time, between Rome and Beijing, I was stunned: it’s as if Glaziev was saying these things literally today.
Allow me to quote two paragraphs:
“At the symposium, held in a divinely frescoed former 15th century Dominican refectory now part of the Italian parliament’s library, Sergey Glaziev, on the phone from Moscow, gave a stark reading of Cold War 2.0. There’s no real “government” in Kiev; the U.S. ambassador is in charge. An anti-Russia doctrine has been hatched in Washington to foment war in Europe – and European politicians are its collaborators. Washington wants a war in Europe because it is losing the competition with China.”
“Glaziev addressed the sanctions dementia: Russia is trying simultaneously to reorganize the politics of the International Monetary Fund, fight capital flight and minimize the effect of banks closing credit lines for many businessmen. Yet the end result of sanctions, he says, is that Europe will be the ultimate losers economically; bureaucracy in Europe has lost economic focus as American geopoliticians have taken over.”
Gotta pay the “tax on independence”
A consensus seems to be emerging in Moscow that the Russian economy will stabilize quickly, as there will be a shortage of personnel for industry and a lot of extra hands will be required. Hence no unemployment. There may be shortages, but no inflation. Sales of – Western – luxury goods have already been curtailed. Imported products will be placed under price controls. All the necessary rubles will be available though price controls – as happened in the U.S. in WWII.
A wave of nationalization of assets may be ahead. ExxonMobil announced it will withdraw from the $4 billion Sakhalin-1 project (they had bailed out on Sakhalin-2, deemed too expensive), producing 200,000 barrels of oil a day, after BP and Norway’s Equinor announced they were withdrawing from projects with Rosneft. BP was actually dreaming of taking all of Rosneft’s participation.
According to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, the Kremlin is now blocking asset sales by foreign investors looking to divest. In parallel, Rosneft, for instance, is bound to raise capital from China and India, who are already minority investors in several projects, and buy them out 100%: an excellent opportunity for Russian business.
What could be construed as the Mother of All Counter-Sanctions has not yet been announced. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev himself hinted all options are on the table.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, channeling the patience of 10,000 Taoist monks, still expecting the current hysteria to fade away, describes the sanctions as “some kind of a tax on independence”, with countries barring their companies from working in Russia under “huge pressure.”
Lethal counterpunches though are not excluded. Apart from completely de-dollarizing – as Glaviev recommends – Russia may ban the export of titanium, rare earth, nuclear fuel and, already in effect, rocket engines.
Very toxic moves would include seizing all foreign assets of hostile nations; freeze all loan repayments to Western banks and place the funds in a frozen account in a Russian bank; completely ban all hostile foreign media, foreign media ownership, assorted NGOs and CIA fronts; and supply friendly nations with state of the art weapons, intel sharing and joint training and exercises.
What’s certain is that a new architecture of payment systems – as discussed by Michael Hudson and others – uniting the Russian SPFS and the Chinese CHIPS, may soon be offered to scores of nations across Eurasia and the Global South – several among them already under sanctions, such as Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, the DPRK.
Slowly but surely, we are already on the way to the emergence of a sizeable Global South bloc immune to American financial warfare.
The RIC in BRICS – Russia, India and China – are already increasing trade in their own currencies. If we look at the list of nations at the UN that voted against Russia or abstained from condemning Operation Z in Ukraine, plus those that did not sanction Russia, we have at least 70% of the whole Global South.
So once again is the West – plus satrapies/colonies such as Japan and Singapore in Asia – against the Rest: Eurasia, Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America.
The coming European collapse
Michael Hudson told me, “the U.S. and Western Europe expected a Froelicher Krieg (“happy war”). Germany and other countries haven’t begun to feel the pain of gas and mineral and food deprivation. THAT’S going to be the real game. The aim would be to break Europe away from U.S. control via NATO. This will involve “meddling” by creating a New World Order political movement and party, like Communism was a century ago. You could call it a new Great Awakening.”
A possible Great Awakening certainly will not involve the NATOstan sphere anytime soon. The collective West is rather in serious Great Decoupling mode, its entire economy weaponized with the aim, expressed in the open, of destroying Russia and even – the perennial wet dream – provoking regime change.
Sergey Naryshkin, the head of the SVR, succinctly described it:
“Masks have dropped. The West is not just trying to enclose Russia with a new ‘Iron Curtain’. We are talking about attempts to destroy our state – its ‘abolition’, as it is now customary to say in the ‘tolerant’ liberal-fascist environment. Since the United States and its allies have neither the opportunity nor the spirit to try to do this in an open and honest military-political confrontation, sneaky attempts are being made to establish an economic, informational and humanitarian “blockade”’.
Arguably the apex of Western hysteria is the onset of a 2022 Neo-Nazi Jihad: a 20,000-strong mercenary army being assembled in Poland under CIA supervision. The bulk comes from private military companies such as Blackwater/Academi and DynCorp. Their cover: “return of Ukrainians from the French Foreign Legion.” This Afghan remix comes straight from the only playbook the CIA knows.
Back in reality, facts on the ground will eventually lead entire economies in the West to become roadkill – with chaos in the commodities sphere leading to skyrocketing energy and food costs. As an example, up to 60% of German and 70% of Italian manufacturing industries may be forced to shut down for good – with catastrophic social consequences.
The unelected, uber-Kafkaesque EU machine in Brussels has chosen to commit a triple hara-kiri by grandstanding as abject vassals of the Empire, destroying any remaining French and German sovereignty impulses and imposing alienation from Russia-China.
Meanwhile, Russia will be showing the way: only self-sufficiency affords total independence. And the Big Picture has also been keenly understood by the Global South: one day someone had to stand up and say, “That’s Enough”. With maximum raw power to back it up.
I appreciate these posts and have been sharing them on Twitter.
Today Twitter locked my account.
Speaking as an American, I am deeply ashamed by my government and the oligarchs who run my country.
We are terrified of the truth, and will go to great lengths to lie about what’s happening in Ukraine.
Keep up your good fight, do not be bullied into letting banksters run the world.
We have no gov’t!!
Empire of liars- mafia has a better
Get on Gettr.com and encourage others to do the same. I’ve posted Pepe’s interviews and have not been blocked. Most “middle class” working Americans are desperate for truth but so hard to find on traditional social media. As facts emerge on Gettr that validate statements by Putin and Lavrov, many views are changing from Putin lunatic/ Lavrov lap dog to OMG – they were telling the truth. To some extent, the Fauci deception prepared the way via exposure of his legion of lies such that more and more, Americans are waking from decades of deception and do not trust one word of the State media or any government official. Pray for the day that nation states can trust each other not to be greedy and will work in concert to improve the lives of all. Still, Americans will pay a price for allowing their country to be usurped by the corrupt DC uniparty slaves to the unrepentant fascist Soros and Schwab’s Transatlantic cabal. But the American people are resilient and we will get through it and, hopefully, emerge wiser and learn to again cherish the freedoms promised by our Constitution.
Report from liberated city of 156,000 with plenty of videos 3.March ( use machine translation )
This talking in abstractions needs to stop and be more precise. Americans, or any other nationality for that matter, are not a monolith. Which sane American wants open borders, gender fluidity, hormone therapy, taking the knee ?
Name names please Pepe.
everyone who is a puppet and slave of the Private Central Bankers, i.e.,
General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representative
Mitch McConnel, Minority Leader of the Senate
Chuck Schumer, Majority Leader of the Senate
Hillary Clinton, Wicked Witch of the West
Barak Obama, Noble Prize Winner, Bathroom wrestler, and Liberal Saint
to your query, which Americans?
37% hard core, brain massaged, Cult of Liberalism citizens, all clustered in the Dem Party.
They have never had an original thought in their head, coming through 20 years of public education and indoctrinated in the Cult Dogmas. They are fanatically and nihilistically acolytes of Green, Global, Rainbow, stateless Feudalism.
Again with open borders. These entire past weeks have described how the Americans system is parasitic and Americans are just willing participants. You clapped and cheer go get them when Iraq and Afghanistan were invaded. You Americans could careless about your customs but here you trying to argue you and the trumicans are the answer. That’s ludicrous.
On the one hand, I am quite satisfied with your forecast, but on the other, being an inhabitant of “Europe”, I greatly fear the very, very unfortunate consequences for the small group of citizens who have not chosen the prevailing political path of the empire of lies.
Hudson has stated the reality of the situation and forecast the likely results. (And thanks, Pepe, for summarizing). Both India and Pakistan have announced plans to trade in rubles and their national currencies in the last day or so.
They are going to strangle Pakistan next as they already suffocate her under their debt tentacles, through corrupt Pakistani rulers. Don’t be surprised if we hear of Pakistan’s bankruptcy, through which they will try to dismantle it’s nuclear capabilities, and may likely succeed in it. Unless Pakistan has the balls to stand up to Anglo-Saxon Zionist bankers. This is the best opportunity for Pakistan and India to come out of the stranglehold of IMF, WB, and Anglo-Saxon Zionist bankers
Well let us hope so! The vitriol and spit coming out of the west certainly shows their cage has been rattled. Foe me an end to the neoliberal scourge and a more equitable economic system of sustainability is paramount!
Quoting from the Mid 70’s movie Network.
I’m Mad as Hell and I am not Going to Take It Anymore.
As always, Mr. Escobar is right on target.
Russia and China have worked very long an hard to give the West a soft landing
It seems likely they will choose the hard way.
Sadly the link to https://johnhelmer.net is being blocked. I was able to get to Russian Insider. Found John Helmer blocked again. Sad the West doesn’t trust its own educational system of its citizens to allow critical thinking. Other relative free sites are also blocked. But SAKER contines.!!!
i also could not access the site via firefox of john helmer before the war already. I use sharp reader and via that i can read it.
no problem accessing the redoutable mr Helmer via the Brave browser
Cheers. Pardon me, how do i get this Brave browser? Kindest regards,. Pete
I have no problem accessing it on Firefox here in Dublin Ireland
go to “dances with bears” on Safari
China and Russia have no interested in seeing the US$ Empire collapse. I think they are working on a controlled demolition. Europe will be hurt severely, until the pain becomes too great to bear. Then the obstacles to detente and eventual peace MAY begin falling away. The goal of China and Russia is a mutually beneficial open trade area from Taipei to Lisbon. The price for Europe is to end sanctions and accept the need to negotiate a genuinely mutual security system in Europe, one Russians and everyone else can be content with. Will it happen? Will the US be able to stop it? I’m not holding my breath. It’s going to take years for the pieces of the new order to fall into place.
They may have no interest in it but when it comes down to an existential choice they will have no options.
Adam Tooze also seems to think that there is a decent escape route for Russia:
I liked the article. I read some of the links suggested in it. Russia was not bullet proof to the sanctions but, it will weather them and turn out fine. Europe and the US is another story.
Is there a link that goes to the “Black Box” solution.
For me at least this link remains broken.
You can still find it here: https://therussophile.org/black-box-defence-for-the-russian-economy-dollar-debt-repayments-blocked-gas-and-oil-deliveries-to-germany-stopped-oligarch-assets-nationalized.html/
By all means bring in Glaziev. I was not a fan before, as I believed his economic policies would be too stifling…turn the Russian economy into something resembling North Korea’s..but clearly, this is exactly what’s required.
Autarchy is the name of the game and Glaziev will know exactly what has to be done!
Nabiulina, Medvedev have been accused of be Atlanticists, but they both stood up for their country, have they not?
Nabiullina oversaw the de-dollarisation and the gold purchase (ok she screwed up on the Euros, but who in their right mind could have predicted the actions of the EU?)
I saw Medvedev’s tweets, which were anything but pro-western…Although I agree that Libya was a massive mistake.
Finally I think Lavrov is right, the hysteria will die down. It has to. Many are tiring of the shrillness.
The most hysterical anti-Russians belong in the same group as the vaxi-nazis (as in mandatory vaccination) and Steele dossier/ Jan 6th insurrection believers.
You always make sense.
And you have a grasp on a boatload of facts. Much appreciated.
You’re mistaken. This is a Crussade, the Tucídides Trap (the spanish name of the greek military historian). Cheers!
Thank you Larchmonter… And I don’t think I’m alone in appreciating your comments!
This conflict laid bare the nefarious intent of the West, especially USA and the mighty $. This whole globalization was an enormous trap laid for the world, where eventually the buck will stop at the $, whereby anyone can be sanctioned for anything if anywhere in the chain of events anything is finally cleared by the US or the $
What this means is if you buy a pencil in Nigeria imported from China that can be sanctioned because the graphite needed was mined in China but used a piece of excavating equipment that had a hydraulic control valve that was bought from Japan that bought the software from an US contractor who was paid in $
That’s the world we live in and finally this travesty is open for everyone to see. Eventually this globalization’s goal is put the tentacles of the $ everywhere, I mean in everything, so eventually the US on it’s whim can stop anything anywhere
Unwinding this is not going to be easy, if it is possible at all
The only sane answer is for the US to realize the unipolar, monopoly ediction is over and there is going to be a multipolar world for certain
As the capitalists know monopoly is bad for business, they should be able to relate it is bad for world politics
This is the beginning of a new dawn for the world where super powers will have to behave responsibly and sanely and every great power has to compete for influence on an almost level playing field
The global south’s prayers may come true in a few years, afterall
Well said Alpine! Indeed, our prayers appear imminent. The Beast senses it, expressed in the agony of its media and the Hate for Russians it pumps into all westerners.. we quickly escape its clutches.
I would add to, “[t]his whole globalization was an enormous trap laid for the world, where eventually the buck will stop at the $..” and every nation will cede self-sufficiency, especially in food stuff, raw materials & energy supply chains, supra-national political & health arrangements (i.e. UN & WHO) and self-defense, to the Empire. The dollar was not only middle-man, most nations bought into the suicidal fantasy of external dependency for critical sectors.
This was pure madness.
How can you delegate what sustains your very life to the worst devils?
To be fair, they had a moment in time favorable for their tricks: in juxtaposition to the totalitarian hard faces of Fascism and Bolshevism, they had such a handsome dissembling face for several generations after WW1.. that many were fatally lured into the trap.
Unwinding the trap is not only possible, it is NECESSARY for survival. Russians are showing us the way now. Hence part of the media hyper-hysteria.
Unfortunately no Hegemon has ever conceded its unipolar moment. All were dragged kicking and screaming into their grave either by implosion, external war (barbarians crashing the inner sanctum and liquidating the core satanic elites), or divine intervention through natural disaster.. Even the British were worn down by external war to such an extent they conceded the frontal management and merged with their American cousins. And one sees it will be no different for current Hegemon – it will need to be taken down hard
If I was Russian I could live on a diet of potato soup for 3 years for the cause as long as I was warm and no worries there. Probably learn to shoot and go hunting and fishing. Get back to nature and away from watching family members in my home falling asleep in bed still clutching their smartphones.
Russia has choices and can expand organically in its own timeframe. Here in LaLa Land UK, the quality of life is sinking faster than an old pro’s bustline.
This summer’s going to be a laugh, expecting nationwide riots. Energy up, food prices way up, standard of living way down. Looks like I’m gonna have to bunker down like the Nazis in Odessa and Mariupol.
Jealousy is a serious disease and these parasitic Euro political ass-wipes are eaten away/consumed with it. Watch them bail one-by-one from US clutches as their economies tank and the unemployed natives, with plenty time on their hands, become restless.
“Putin and the government are finally ready to grab the Russian oligarchy by the balls and force them to share risks and losses at an extremely difficult for the nation”
Maybe the present Western confiscation of the property of oligarchs will make it easier for them to participate like that (might become eager to). I guess their government could stand with them now and at the same time present this solution.
“Sergey Glaziev, on the phone from Moscow, gave a stark reading of Cold War 2.0. There’s no real “government” in Kiev; the U.S. ambassador is in charge. An anti-Russia doctrine has been hatched in Washington to foment war in Europe – and European politicians are its collaborators. Washington wants a war in Europe because it is losing the competition with China.”
I disagree. There is an oddness or irrationality in Zelensky and his close collaborators, which we see now, that is not induced from outside, so its their doctrine. They are telling other leaders what to do, telling them the threats they too face , that harsher sanctions and a no-fly zone are good not just for Ukraine but for them too. True that they are under stress, but these are stubborn – hard to handle – men.
“A wave of nationalization of assets may be ahead.”
New excuse: “You started this with the oligarchs…”
Russia needs to TRANSCEND to gain its sovereignty and move Intelligently & Swiftly. Let the Empire restructure. The Empire wants to restructure others so it doesn’t have to do the right thing for its citizens.
Russia needs to start with a declaration of Monetary Sovereignty by selling its resources only in Rubles and doing currency swaps with only friendly nations. No currency swaps and taking of adversaries’ private currencies, including Israel. The EU need to make a decision about its alliances. Russia’s Ruble is backed by its commodities, it doesn’t need to limit to just gold. Currency swaps + CBDC (sovereign money) is better than Empire’s private currencies, the latter is backed by nothing.
Why not appoint Sergei Glaziev as the Central Bank chairperson? He has published many good ideas on economic sovereignty. They only get coverage when Russia is in crisis. It happened in 2014 and Glaziev’s articles were published by the Saker. Nothing happened much in reality. Let this time he lead unless Elvira Nabiullina can get all assets back to Russia immediately. If she can’t then her strategy failed and she be fired.
Russian central bank isn’t listening as it increased the interest rate to 20%. Why increase the cost for businesses? End usury. Russia needs to drop interest rate to zero for productive endeavors and launch its entrepreneurial spirit. Russia can bring on many nations on this roadmap as many would have awakened to Empire’s wrath. China, Russia, India, Iran, South Africa, Venezuela, Brazil,… need to work together to achieve economic sovereignty. Israel has good entrepreneurs who struggle for market size and thereby sell their companies to the Empire’s entities. Israel be invited if it commits to being neutral and act responsibly.
No cockamamie theories on collapse, inflation, taxation, gold bugs,… Without sufficient increase in new supply, there will be inflation which will be further accelerated by high interest rate. Allocate the public credit towards a “real de-offshorization of the economy”. Anyone buying adversaries goods like iPhone, Mercedes, Burberry, Gucci,… be viewed as a traitor. Hopefully, China and other nations will see Empire’s abuse towards Russia and together boycott Empire’s products and services. Let the Empire’s market shrink from 8 billion consumers to 1+ billion consumers (700% reduction in the market size).
Talk is cheap. Let’s see if Russia and China will crawl, walk or run in this marathon!
I agree with your message and would add that the government should – like the Soviet era 5 year plans – albeit as an internal market economy model, improve the conditions of the population throughout the federation.
“Let the Empire restructure.”
Restructure is a function of framing and hence variable according to context/purpose, whilst arachnology remains of increasing interest to the CIA and others.
The Empire has reached a strategic inflection point and is out of luck. It has to restructure.
Just watch Robert Kennedy’s discussion at the Columbia University in the early 1960s. None of the problems discussed in that townhall meeting (poverty, inequity, racism, health care, infrastructure, education…) have been addressed in the last six decades. This clearly demonstrates the failures of subsequent administrations. Our socioeconomic system is crumbling and bubbles will burst. The days of the dollar $ as the reserve currency are numbered. Nothing last forever.
Americans need to unite to gain their sovereignty and build a better socioeconomic system and world. We have many strengths, we need to build on them. The U$A like Saruman is lost in hubris. The Mordor will fail. Let’s go with Gandalf. “In God We Trust”
Where is Sauron? Gollum….
“How lucky I am that my mother studied with JRR Tolkien and CS Lewis and WH Auden and that she passed on to me a command of language that permits me to “tell the story” of the world economy in plain English. She would have been delighted that I managed to show that the evil Gollum from Tolkien’s tales lives above the doorway in the Oval Office, which he certainly does. I saw him there myself. He may have found a new perch over at The Federal Reserve Bank as well.”
– Excerpt From, Signals: The Breakdown of the Social Contract and the Rise of Geopolitics by Dr Philippa Malmgren
re “Let the Empire’s market shrink from 8 billion consumers to 1+ billion consumers (700% reduction in the market size).”
Max, great observations – and I hate to be a pedant – but shrinking “from 8 billion consumers to 1+ billion consumers” is a reduction of 7/8… which translates into a reduction of 87.5%…. and not 700% which would be SEVEN times the current consumer base!
Thanks for your perspective. An entity would rather target a market of 1+ billion or 8 billion potential customers?
The latter number is 700% great than the former.
If that entity’s competitor is targeting the latter market size while it is targeting the former target market, what happens then?
If you reduce anything by 100% then, by definition, you end up with nothing or zero.
Since you can’t reduce something beyond its totality- which is 100% – reducing it by any percent greater than 100% is an impossibility.
Unless you are using Fractional Reserve Banking!!!!
I read years ago that Russia Central Bank is part of the BIS-Rothschild network. If this is true that needs to stop otherwise will always be a Trojan horse.
All central banks are trojan horses.
It is a Privately controlled central bank and that is codified into the Russian constitution. Putin has had the political pull and capital to take it public several times but hasn’t. That has always left me suspicious but maybe this will be the time and place to do the true nuclear option financially.
I’m wondering if this is done on purpose by the west. Destroy all western nations economies and introduce the Great reset
The governments and the peoples eagerly immolated themselves upon command over “Covid”, and they look just as ardent for for a second self-bonfire of whatever’s left of their vanities.
“The whole world was filled with wonder and followed the beast. People worshiped the dragon because he had given authority to the beast, and they also worshiped the beast and asked, Who is like the beast? Who can wage war against it?”
– Revelation 13.3-4
They’re not called the “Coalition of the Willing” for nothing!
No, it is no coincidence that the West is eliminating itself. In the year before the pandemic, for example, I happened to sit in a forum, in the context of a science week, sponsored by Google, speakers MIT, Harvard, Stanford, Cambridge professors and a select circle of entrepreneurs and politicians. The topics pandemic, transhumanism, nugging, singularity, democracy (destruction), misophonia, (mental disorder) manipulation by sound etc. To put it briefly, inhuman and diabolical.
Oh My God, this is the inconceivable, the unimaginable, the economic Tsar Bomba that has been prepared in the event the U.S.-NATO would foolishly and with great hubris try to make Mother Russia bend to Satan’s will.
Nationalization of foreign assets inside a country is the doctrine of last resort to defend the sovereignty of the host nation. In order for it to work all manner of foreign investment influence and the global markets have to be carefully severed with surgical precision and replaced with a cooperative system that benefits all participants.
President Putin has to roll this out to the people of the Russian Federation and keep them updated at least twice a month in the beginning so the electorate doesn’t panic. He has to reassure them basic necessities will be provided such as access to quality and affordable (1) food, (2) clothing (3) housing (4) healthcare (5) public utilities of potable water, electricity, petrol to power machines and natural gas to heat homes (6) transportation infrastructure (8) education.
Slavs know hardship; it is in their history and in their consciousness. The babushkas and dedushkas will be sought after by their children and taught how to stiffen themselves and persevere against difficult times.
The Orthodox Church has an important role in all of this for faith in God will help them endure and learn what is truly important in this mortal life.
As an ex Italian I feel sorry for the future of EU, but I think it is something they called upon themselves. You cannot save peopls who do not do anything to be saved. And the best way to get their attention is to hit them in their Pockets.
Brilliant analysis. thank you once again for our enlightenment by laying the key underlying pieces to the “Russia/Ukraine/NATO matrix” so plainly on the table: “the combined ability of Russian hypersonic missiles and a defensive shield capable of blocking incoming nuclear missiles from the West…”
Backstopped by the preceding and with the display of raw Russian conventional power, President Putin has simultaneously stripped away three masks worn by the hegemon and its eurorodent (copyright Saker) vassals.
First the Covid mask, leading a few wags to comment that President Putin should be nominated for a Nobel Prize in medicine for ending that pandemic.
Second, the empire’s mask revealing that the hegemon is not patently clueless, but rather, is scared shiver-less.
And finally, the sanctions mask exposing that the eurorodent “partners” will soon be hungry and freezing in their cellars while Russia will be steadily building total independence along with its partners in the Global South.
Russia and China should sanction the US congresspeople and the AIPAC and NATO members by prohibiting their personal participations in economic development in BRIC. Now.
…the combined ability of Russian hypersonic missiles and a defensive shield capable of blocking incoming nuclear missiles from the West, thereby ending Mutually Assured Destruction (M.A.D.)…
Interesting comment, Pepe. I’ve just finished watching a video involving John Mearsheimer and Ray McGovern. At the end of the 90 min long video, Ted Postol — of MIT fame, the guy who debunked the ‘success’ of Tomahawk strikes on Syria — posits that RF, unlike the US, doesn’t possess 100% global coverage of ICBM launches and thus cannot corroborate potential launches and will assume the worst; that, to him, is worrying because of the real risk of accidental launch by RF. Perhaps that’s why the US postponed its own test launch of nuclear weapons.
The other thing is I believe RF will suffer the lesser damage and become owners of a sovereign economy if it follows Sergey Glaziev’s prescription. Perhaps RF will also introduce capital and currency controls ie pegging the ruble to well, USD or Euro or a basket of currencies — that will prevent capital flight and speculation, and also stabilise the value of the ruble. Steadier environment for pricing goods in Russia.
The West is in a bit of a cock-up with the sanctions — we can see it via contradictorhy statements issued by the hour from Brussels and the Ukraine; they’ve made so many exemptions eg South Korea, energy, uranium, that one wonders if it is really ‘sanctions from hell’. The economic sh*t is going to boomerang on them and I hope they will enjoy sucking it all up.
Some good ole advice for Europe from the Marshall Tucker Band:
Gonna take a freight train down at the station Lord
I don’t care where it goes
Gonna climb a mountain, the highest mountain, Lord
And jump off, ain’t nobody gonna know
Can’t you see, oh can’t you see
What that wo/man [insert Ursula vd Leyen, Annalena Baerbock, Vicki Nuland, Charles Michel, Jens Stoltenberg], she been doin’ to me
Can’t you see, can’t you see
What that woman, Lord, she been doin’ to me
I’m gonna find me a hole in the wall
Gonna crawl inside and die
I call my lady now, a mean old woman, Lord
Never told me goodbye…
About ICBM launches, President Putin, in his recent address to Western journalists pointed out to them that Russia could identify missiles fired at it from all over the world, BUT had no way of identifying payloads, therefore must assume the worst.
He tried to impress upon them the danger they were in. So what you quote is even official Russian policy. Dangerous times.
They have been reading your blog, Richard! Actually, the societal chaos and civil conflict have been a way of life here in the USSA for some time, as you know. When the banks fail -or, are declared so- all deposits are confiscated by the banks, legally. “Death by mental anguish,” I reckon. Someone once told me that the next apocalypse will come by mass insanity. It has already begun where I am.
Great analysis Pepe.
Here is an excellent explainer on the interest rate price spiral.
The Russian central bank has to get on top of it and very quickly. Have a chat with Michael about it. He gets it.
Keep up the good work…
I don’t know the specific situation in Russia, but I disagree with the Abstract in the link. This Abstract doesn’t explain the interest rate price spiral (for those less familiar with economics, that’s just the interest rate), but it must be the basis of that spiral explanation. (I quote the abstract below.) I disagree because by “banking system” below, it means the private banks in a system. With paper money, the private banks want easy money, to be able to make many more loans, so they cannot be dictating the level of reserves based on which they make loans, because the reserves they must keep will then always be too low, and they will increase the money quantity too much (inflate the money), causing a general price inflation. The favored “narrative” below is the better way to proceed under a paper money system.: The Central Bank sets that target rate, decides on the reserves level, as they say below, “to keep market rates in line with their target rate.” In this way, it can choose an easy money path or a tight money path. If this is turned like upside down, it will always be easy money as I said: The banks are not going to ask for tighter limits to their loaning capacity. They will not want to have to keep a higher reserves-loans ratio, because that limits their lending power. It is a bad system indeed, even a scandalous system if you asked ancient Greeks and Romans (“What, do you say I can make little sticks be the money?”), but the “narrative” way is the way to run it more responsibly. I don’t know what other way to run this paper money system there could be.
With floating exchange rate policies, central banks target policy interest rates – prices – rather than any monetary aggregate. The narrative favoured by central banks and academics is that of the central bank adjusting the quantity of reserves supplied in order to keep market rates in line with their target rate. This implies that, in the US case, for example, the Fed varies the quantity of reserves in order to achieve its interest rate target. However, we argue in favour of a reversed causality vis-à-vis orthodox analysis and contend that rather than adjusting the supply of reserves to meet its policy rate, as the monopoly issuer of reserves in a floating exchange rate regime, the central bank, in practice, acts as the price-setter for the level of reserves demanded by the banking system.”
Fantastic question. I hope this hepls.
We no longer live in Bedford falls in the film a wonderful life and Bailey brothers banking.
Bank Lending is not reserved constrained anymore. The loan creates the deposit.
These will help..
The role of bank deposits
Building bank reserves will not expand credit
message read, thanks for the links.
Breathtaking news of counter sanctions internal to Russia (Reuters):
“Moscow laid out options for foreign companies on Friday: stay in the country, exit entirely or hand over their holdings to local managers until they return.
First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov described the alternatives in a statement.
“The company continues to work fully in Russia,” he said in a statement. “Foreign shareholders transfer their share to be managed by Russian partners and can return to the market later,” he added, and: “The company permanently terminates operations in Russia, closes production and dismisses employees.””
So serbia voted in favour of ukraine…yet on the street of belgrade chant in favour of Russia..
why does Russia have to pay for loans? The West has already stolen the money, I would not pay twice…
A different but closely related topic, do joint R&D and manufacturing with Iran in technical projects like drones. Iran has more STEM graduates than the U.S. and I bet some of their drone tech is better than Russia’s but development for both countries could accelerate quickly if you collaborated.
For all of the whining from the U.S. about ‘IP theft’, we have benefitted greatly from bright Chinese and Indian Engineers working in the U.S. When they file for patents, it is owned by the U.S. company. I bet we have gained more IP than have had it stolen from us. At the very least, this is not factored into the equation. In any case, do not lose the opportunity to work with Iran. When you guys save Syria when you combined your efforts under the late great Iranian General.
Stolen? Why did majority of American inventions go to shit after the late Nazis dies. Maybe because American shave always paid for IP and sold the idea of being “so smart”
Oh guess what!
We all know what US wars are good for
That is WW3. The whole situation is like a reverse mirror image of 1939. And Ukraine is Spain.
dear pepe le pew:
“If we look at the list of nations at the UN that voted against Russia or abstained from condemning Operation Z in Ukraine, plus those that did not sanction Russia, we have at least 70% of the whole Global South.”
that’s not 70% not 100%…. yessayers plus neutrals plus naysayers = 100%
Very toxic moves would include … completely ban all hostile foreign media, foreign media ownership, assorted NGOs and CIA fronts;
I would think these moves should have already occurred. As an American citizen, I am appalled at what the US government has done since WWII. I just want our Constitutional Republic back. I couldn’t care less for ’empire’. Russia and traditional America should be allies, not adversaries.
What really needs to happen is for Russia to permanently set up a series of competitors / alternatives to western US UK run institutions / e-commerce who have everyone hostage.
These include –
World payment system
New Currency backed by tangible things like gold metals oil
Facebook Twitter Instagram etc.
Amazon & eBay type selling platforms
Internet search engines and email
Media / News Channels
Youtube type video and data storage platforms
which people all over globe can utilize.
Because the current monopolies need to smashed as to their censorship & control, and be damaged monetarily. And there is dire need for an alternative source of information and e-commerce.
These new entities need to have a firm rule of free speech and virtually no restrictions.
We’ve seen the situation of Google and Facebook/Twitter tampering with anything the global elite pigs dont like (eg US politics and elections), and people in the US UK EU particularly have had enough of it.
What is needs is a Amazon selling platform that medium & small business and shops around the world can log into to sell their goods and services at a minimal fee (like 2-5%) rather than allowing these global entities to destroy them by them taking their sales and margins.
Anything that smashes the market share and control of the big global entities should be looked at.
These global online entities have done a lot of damage to main street shops and employment in towns etc.. and small suppliers the past 15 years and something needs to be done about it.
Russia has a lot of good IT people capable of doing this and relatively fast and enabling users on existing platforms to migrate over with a few clicks of a button.
This would damage them heavily.
The question has always been can Russia/China get the West to a soft landing , or will the Empire take the world with it down.
China & Russia can’t do much about West’s strategy as they don’t control West’s leaders and the administration. West’s trajectory will be defined by its leadership team and the populace.
Majority of West’s populace is in a dark cave and its leadership controlled by Saruman & Sauron (evil). “One cannot save people who do not do anything to be saved.” What are West’s choices? What happened to personal responsibility in the West? God is watching US!
China, Russia, and good nations will gain sovereignty by trading in their respective national currencies and building better technology, financial, supply chain, media… systems. They need to focus on their lands and protect it!
If you’re a US American, I don’t mean any offense, but I hope for a day when the US come down crashing like he USSR did and its people suffer enormously as a reparation for the utter death and destruction your country has caused in the world.
Even the poorest people should suffer because it was the likes of them who volunteered for US foreign wars with the full knowledge that those wars had no connection with national security.
God is watching US! “In God We Trust”
Americans are suffering. However, they’re waking up slowly but surely. Good Americans are speaking up against imperialism, enslavement and wars. We also want to get our sovereignty back.
The key question is: why is the world using the Empire’s private currencies and enabling it to do wrongs? How can one fuel an abuser? How long will the populace in the world put up with this abuse? Every nation in the world that is using the Empire’s private currencies is responsible for its wrong doings.
What would have happened if no one in the world joined military?
That’s a truly, truly terrible statement! I don’t like that America was “infiltrated” and that even the American people’s elections are (and have been) decided by a small group of elite people – who runs, who is elected, who is assonated or impeached or whatever works to keep the oligarchy in charge. I don’t like that our two party system or the media that seem to only have one script. I don’t like that our future depends on a petro-dollar that shouldn’t exist in the first place. But, to actually say you want people to suffer? That’s an incredibly mean and unenlightened thing to wish for. I don’t know anyone who was cheering that the Russian people suffered, or that the Ukrainian people are suffering or that the people in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions were neglected and terrorized for more than 8 years. War is not decided upon by “the people” or citizens of a country – we’re all pawns in this world and the sooner we realize this and start to come together and realize our strength in numbers the better. I don’t know how to combat global economic decisions along with the hidden motives and decisions that I barely understand. The last I checked Biden, Putin and Trudeau weren’t taking my phone calls either. Neither was Boris Johnson or I’d tell him to comb his hair and get a real job! The only thing I have in my power to do is to treat others as well as I’m able, try to be as self-sufficient as possible, resist the globalist agenda and pray that people around the world keep waking up because the results of not doing so creates a terrible image of the future for us all … and, I do mean ALL.
Perfect. Thanks Pepe.
The final counterpunch would be for Russia to stop recognizing US and European patents, and use those processes in its own industry. I would start with the pharmaceutical industry, producing and selling worldwide all the expensive drugs they produce at 10% of the price. Some of those labs would go belly up in no time…
Well Russia is not the only self-sufficient one. So few know of the African autarky, Eritrea! Self-sufficiency is enshrined in their national identity.
“..uniting the Russian SPFS and the Chinese CHIPS, may soon be offered to scores of nations across Eurasia and the Global South – several among them already under sanctions, such as Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, the DPRK.”
This will merely create a new bloc of interdependent-vassals, for example, U.S. goods and services trade with China totaled an estimated $615.2 billion & counting. Exports were $164.9 billion; imports were $450.4 billion, China is the second foreign holder of U.S. debt with $1,068 billion in Treasury holdings [Dec.21], almost 14% of the foreign debt, plus it holds the largest foreign reserves $3.46 trillion and counting, add to that the fact that United States remains India’s largest trading partner, with exports of goods to the United States worth $77 billion, plus India is close to half a trillion U.S. dollars & counting, have you asked yourself where would they dump all these reserves & products if the “dollar was to collapse”?
To borrow Jeremy Irons (John Tuld) words in Margin Call, “[they] will be left holding the biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history of capitalism.” I think both sides of the fence (pro/anti Russia) have lost touch with reality, if you think countries like China or India, are simply going to commit suicide at the behest of Russia, then Pepe is as looney as they get.
This is not to factor in the ring of vassal states (EU, Common Wealth e.t.c.) and the laundered money of their leaders in Western havens, you think these people will suddenly decide to commit suicide for Russia, out of a feeling of fraternity?
We have to be clear, China or India, will not hesitate to back stab, if the “state-elite” deem their survival is threatened, Putin is not ideological his ethical, that unfortunate to say, is a weakness in a corrupt world. He abides and is guided by principles, which Russians should be proud of, in producing such a leader, but the rest of the world is cesspit.
Most of the states are bankrupt vassals, their creditors are either in Bern or City of London or NYC, the ill-gotten wealth of the cesspit-creatures who run those bankrupt vassals are stocked and hidden in mainly British offshore havens, conveniently called Crown jurisdiction (i.e. outside UK law), some estimates place about 90% of stolen wealth (re: Pandora/Panama/ e.t.c.) in the usual British overseas territory suspects (BVI, Cayman Islands and Bermuda) the reality is these are merely the stolen wealth of “third-world elite” as for the “first-world elites” it is all in the City.
The bankrupt vassal states have sold their nations tax-soul and natural resources to service their debt, some can’t even access their wealth, except under special conditions, like Saudi Arabia & other GCC players, sell the oil but in invest in the US on US products/services/treasury e.t.c. With Covid, the debt-enslavement accelerated e.t.c., in 2020 alone, the World Bank sank 80 plus countries into debt so deep, their monetary policy as well as their domestic policy is guided by their experts, thus why you saw a uniform response to Covid, Russia was part of the spectacle, never forget that, just like the part of Russian elite who “abstained” during the Libyan Gaddafi debacle, remember it was under “R2P” humanitarian grounds, that NATO went in, thus why the grounds is being laid now for the “humanitarian justification”, to further target not Russia just the managerial elite.
We need to be realistic, Putin, is just one man, remember his Covid debacle with the Mayor of Moscow? and like Abdallah Salah of Yemen once said, “governing Yemen is like walking on the head of snakes” until off course, one such snake ended his life. Pepe, ought to take a step back, probably take a leaf out of Henry David Thoreau’s decision to go live in the woods ‘to front only the essential facts of life and learn what they had to teach and to discover if he had really lived.’
As much as I’d like to agree with this analysis, I have to ground myself in my religion, and as a Muslim, I see the handiwork of Jews again. I don’t see it through a “political or economic microscope” but rather a “religious microscope” and everything that is happening fits a pattern that has been playing out since the kingdom of Judah was reduced to ruble and its citizens enslaved in Babylon.
The ideology (Pharisaism/Rabbinism/Judaism) that mushroomed into a belief-system amongst the captives there is albeit in varying shapes and forms over the course of time and place, driving a lot of what we are witnessing today. While Mr. Escobar can look at this from a “secular perspective” I think we ought to look at it from a “sacred perspective”, first by trying to understanding why does it look like the West is choosing the Samson option?
We have to reframe our vision to understand what is happening, it is not Russia versus Ukraine, its is a Slavic Orthodox Christian nation in a confederacy with Muslims, versus a Graeco-Slavic Orthodox-Catholic nation, it is not Putin versus Zelensky, it is an Orthodox Christian versus a Jew. Now delineate each into camps of alliances, what portion of the “pillars of power” do Jews control?
Definitely not manufacturing or industry, they never liked working, in fact they see the industrious as a competitor, thus why they are religiously peddling the Climate Change Green New Deal mantra, because it wipes out their gentile competitors who are mainly in manufacturing, thus:
“ExxonMobil announced it will withdraw from the $4 billion Sakhalin-1 project (they had bailed out on Sakhalin-2, deemed too expensive), producing 200,000 barrels of oil a day, after BP and Norway’s Equinor announced they were withdrawing from projects with Rosneft. BP was actually dreaming of taking all of Rosneft’s participation.”
Who slapped the sanctions? Not Blinken the American, but Blinken the Jew, the oil/gas companies are gentile old-money oily royally, the financiers however are principally Jews. It is not simply about getting BP/ExxonMobil/Equinor out, it is to ensure that the make costly investment then lose them, coupled with the increasingly authoritarian Climate Change diktats, Jews historically were never good at following the law, but are excellent Commissars, policing (NSA, financial surveillance, e.t.c.) others and making sure they abide by the laws (international law) they craft, it is that “priestly knack”.
For example, I wonder if Pepe, has ever looked at the database of all the people who crafted all the laws that are found in conventions, treaties, charters e.t.c. via the vehicles of “international organizations” like UN?
Did you ever ask yourself what “international law” is and who wrote it, I bet most people wouldn’t even know the names of these people if they were mentioned, worse still, they would be shocked to know their “priestly resumes”.
So am afraid as a Muslim, I cannot subscribe to Pepe’s rationale here, it is devoid of insight, sorry to say, it misses the mark, only because it is superficial, oh has anybody looked up the Russian chain of succession, how many Pharisees do you find?
Remember Lindsey Graham…
Exactly correct. As long as the fear of being labelled an anti Semite operates, no one will see what is staring them in the face. Jews lived and traded here from medieval times whether one accepts that Khazaria the medieval kingdom was Jewish or not….and Ukraine is also the home of the Rebbe, the Lubavitch Messiah, Schneerson, who has a large following in the US Congress. The billionaires for whom Zelensky is the front are Israeli, Cypriot, and Ukie triple citizens who enabled the fleecing of the Ukrainian treasury and siphoned off the wealth to various offshore schemes, some profiting Chabad. These billionaires sit on the boards of international Jewish organizations and the concerted demonization and hatred of Russia is orchestrated by these Jewish/lsraeli oligarchs and their co ethnics who have been placed at the head of all the so called Christian and European nations…thus Orban is Jewish, Zelenksy is Jewish, John Kerry and Victoria Nuland and Robert Kagan, the architects among others of Euromaidan are also Jewish. This is not to say that there are not other overlapping interests involved. But we don’t understand the vicious hatred and baiting of Putin and Russia if we don’t understand that this is payback time from Khazaria to Rus.
Iam glad someone finally had the foresight to pinpoint the core orchestraters of this Russian-Ukrainian event and dared to call a spade a spade.
Excellent articulation. I have pointed this Zionist Jewish link in some of my comments on this site.
The Zionists are silently controlling the show with no hint of their apparent involvement. That’s why I said, declare Military, financial and humanitarian support for Palestine, on the lines of Germany’s support for Ukraine, and see how things shape out : Either immediate cessation of hostilities or an all out WW3.
“And the Big Picture has also been keenly understood by the Global South: one day someone had to stand up and say, “That’s Enough”. With maximum raw power to back it up.”
They understand it so!
Putin has added recognition of Crimea as part of Russia to her goals of “denazification” and “demilitarization.” Soon a Ukranian will accept Crimea as part of Russia. Once Ukraine accepts that, the rest of the world won’t be able to say anymore that it belongs to Ukraine, nor make it a policy goal to return it to Ukraine. For other people, it’s just a fact but, for Russians, it must be a cause of great celebration. I think the “Global South” will later like this too: “Almost all Crimeans were Russians!”
>…”The RIC in BRICS – Russia, India and China – are already increasing trade in their own currencies. If we look at the list of nations at the UN that voted against Russia or abstained from condemning Operation Z in Ukraine, plus those that did not sanction Russia, we have at least 70% of the whole Global South.” …<
Well, I can´t speak for "the whole Global South", but I DO know, first hand, about Brazil. It really is getting tougher, day by day, for US ex-patriots to live and conduct business – especially international business with the USA – "down here". Not only has the US$ collapsed by 20+% since the start of The War, but communications, customs / immigration hassles, credit / debit card refusals, banking problems, taxation issues, etc., etc., etc., are increasing exponentially.
People who are supposedly "in the know" have told me that the BRICS alliance has made it real clear that Brazil can´t have it both ways, playing a balancing act between the USA and Russia / India / China. Apparently they have given Brasilia the choice of either "getting on board" with full counter-sanctions against the US or getting kicked out of the alliance.
Bravo!! Excellent article, thank you!
I wouldn’t be surprised that a surge in nationalistic right parties coming into power all across Europe. For instance, Zemmour shows more sympathy to Putin than to the Liberal-Globalist Ukrainian cause. Being a wise opportunistic, Zemmour can smell the direction of the wind and adapt to the electorate’s wishes.
The Orbans and the like are coming to power, and I wouldn’t be surprised that many European agreements (such as Schengen) be suspended sine die.
De-dollarization and getting back to gold would work wonders. That is something the Anglo-Saxon Zionist Sherlocks that run the IMF, World Bank and all financial institutions, never want to happen.
Nothing pains them more than hitting them financially and loosening their stranglehold on powerless nations.
This war has the potential to destroy the US Dollar as the international currency! Whether that would be coincidental or one of the primary goals of the Anglo-Saxon Zionists is what I wonder at.
I want to point out an interesting angle at this juncture. A former senior Diplomat who is well versed with international finance, the international monetary system, and who also happens to be an eminent Islamic scholar had made this forecast: That the US Dollar would be destroyed in value, taking down with it the American economy and the world economy. This would be to facilitate Israel as the next ruling state of the world, after Britain and America’s turn. I can clearly see his forecast being truthified.
For the Antichrist to rule the world from Israel, the US Dollar as well as the superpowers need to be destroyed. This war has the potential to drag US, Russia and NATO into a long war, exhausting their weapons and powers to the point where Israel can attack and takeover.
Russia should focus on destroying the financial stranglehold of the Anglo-Saxon Zionists on itself as well as the world if it wins to defend itself and come out victorious. An attack on Zionist control centres should be on the cards, without me naming those centres. Israel’s role in all of this should not be discounted.
A devastated US Dollar would be immense good news for all those powerless nations under debt in US Dollars, as they would be able to repay with ease. All countries should dump their US Dollar reserves to bring America to it’s knees in 24 hours or more
Recent events have blown up many of the nonsensical narratives about “reserve currencies.” If we were lucky, we would not hear about them any more. Unfortunately, given the people pushing those narratives, this probably will not happen.
Foreign exchange reserves held in a trading bloc (e.g., the trading bloc arranged around the United States) are only useful to guard against financial disruptions to trade with that bloc.
As soon as you get involved in foreign policy adventurism, those assets are just hostage to the host country. For those of you with a long memory, that was the premise of the “New Bretton Woods” theory that popped up during the era of rapid accumulation of U.S. dollar reserves by China.
Holding U.S. Treasuries as reserves is only useful as a political tool if the objective is to remain in good standing under the American nuclear umbrella — e.g., Japan.
We are even seeing the limitations of gold as a reserve asset. Gold is only useful for a government if they use it to barter with domestic suppliers of goods, or if it is in place within a trading bloc.
Shipping large amounts of gold by sea when you do not have undisputed control of the sea could easily lead to events that would make really cool action films. (I am unsure of the details, but I recall reading an article that noted that Japan ran into this issue either in the 1800s or 1907.)
You can’t just dump US Treasuries.
1. You can swap them for $
2. Then exchange them for your own currency.
But to do that with a floating exchange rate you need a buyer and a seller or the transaction won’t take place.
To swap $’s for Rubles
$ —————— ₽
You need somebody who wants to swap
What you quickly figure out is that the FED does not lose any $, all that happens is the names changes on the accounts of who Now owns the $ at the FED.
That has been the problem for nearly 50 yesrs. People always use gold standard and fixed exchange rate analysis on free floating currencies. Always get it wrong. It is the Kaldorian point of view created by Nicholas Kaldor.
Myth: US consumers need to borrow $billions from foreigners.
Fact: US consumers are funding $billions in foreign savings.
Let’s begin with the example of US consumer buying a German car.
If the consumer pays cash for it, the consumer’s checking account in a US bank is debited and the German carmaker’s account is credited, thereby increasing foreign savings of USD financial assets. Total deposits in the US banking system remain unchanged.
If the consumer borrows to buy the car, the bank makes a loan to the consumer, which results in a loan on the asset side of the bank’s balance sheet and a new deposit on the liability side (loans create deposits). After the car is paid for the German car company has the new bank deposit. Consumer borrowing increased total bank deposits and funded foreign savings of USD.
That’s what the finance behind the trade gap is all about – foreigners desire to net save USD financial assets and sell goods and services to the US to obtain those assets.
Following the above transaction the foreign holder of USD bank deposits may instead desire to purchase US Treasury securities. At the time of purchase, the seller of the Treasury security becomes the new holder of the bank deposit, and the foreigner the new holder of the Treasury security. (If the foreigner buys securities directly from the Treasury the result is the same.)
The US government is now said to have foreign creditors, and the US is said to be a debtor nation.
While this is true as defined, a look past the rhetoric at what the US government actually owes the holder of the Treasury security is revealing. What the government promises is that at maturity the foreigner’s security account at the Fed will be debited, and his bank’s reserve account at the Fed will be credited for the balance due.
In other words, the US government’s promise is only that a non-interest bearing reserve balance will be substituted for an interest bearing Treasury security. This is not a potential source of financial stress for the government.
Sorry but your statement doesn’t explain why the US and its vassals are hell bent on maintaining the USD hegemony. They use military to do it.
The bottom line is that if other currencies are used as reserves in trade, the USD hegemony diminishes.
This Russian maneuver in Ukraine has exposed the fact that each and every international institution is nothing but an imperialist tool of subjugation of poor and less powerful countries.
Let’s hope that countries of the world seize this golden opportunity to come out of the West’s grapple. Stealing nation’s resources and keeping them in perpetual poverty.
I would love to see the Empire collapse, or at least the cessation of the US Dollar as international currency.
Most important is to grasp the contextual settings of the moment and more particularly when the reality seems to disappear in a wall of fog like today. Here are two of my last contributions to the understanding of the contextual settings of the moment :
Separating Europe from China in the hope of remaining forever the sole Tiger on the mountain
China will be instrumental in solving Europe’s security and some more
Shock Doctrine. See if you can get Naomi Klein to read it.
here is a free pdf
I learned more from that book than from my degree in Economics I got in England
Before I read it (especially the chapter on Russia) I believed everything CNN and other zio media said about Putin even though it did not make any sense
Cheers. Pardon me, how do i find Naomi Klein? Her online address? Kindest regards,. Pete
Check out the ‘Project for a New American Century’ put together in the 1990’s. PNAC outlines the conquest of seven countries such as Iran, Iraq,Syria Russia and China. They are about half way there.
Nice dig at the pretense of the CounterPunch website with article header.
Well done Pepe and/or Andrei,The Saker!
Latin Americans are different from Ukranians. Granted that a lot of Ukranians voted against Zelensky and that those people are not shown on TV. We can only surmise that they must be blaming Zelensky. Anyway, we see Zelensky on TV and how he talks. Would Ecuador have declared “Ze” insane and removed him a long time ago? You can bet your last bottom dollar. In Bolivia, Evo Morales got kicked out for much less than this. Down there, “Ze” would have escaped already.
Indian officers are well aware that our CBDC will need to be fundamentally different to the shitcoin US CBDC, and so a partnership that involves replacing SWIFT with India’s own UPI (which works flawlessly as a payment system). This is 4D chess on part of the Indian side. This way the Russia India or the Russia China India CBDC will moon and the US $hitcoin CBDC by The Fed will dump.
Hi, I just ordered a set of Russian stickers to upset the nice French people
Olivier Belgian living in France
>…”Hi, I just ordered a set of Russian stickers to upset the nice French people”…<
I hope that you have the good sense to NOT display any such stickers on your automobile, moto, or other personal property. If you do, you may also upset some not-so-nice French people, who will likely do some not-so-nice things to your property, or even directly to YOU.
Apropos of Ecuador and Bolivia, neither would they accept pres. Biden as their own if he wanted to avoid war with Russia but sent weapons to kill Russians and, using the word “pain” often, announced all the time an economic war against all of them: “Are you crazy!” Sounds like something “Ze” could do if he traded places with Biden.
The US State Department IS the Deep State.
I live in La Paz, BCS Mexico, where American jews run the city. There is absolutely no federal government here and the state government does what the consulate tells them.
The problem is, these bureaucrats are not human. They lack empathy. And the thrive on rumor. They have helped create the Pandemic narrative and now believe they can pull off a proxy war against Russia and China.
Their selfish greed and inflated egos are going to be the end of all of us.
There are 2 New World Orders, NWO East and NWO West. All conflicts for the past 75 years are between / for either one. Nationalism is pau, dead.
Each world order shall be self sufficient economically, politically, militarily.
The U.S. and Western Europe are trashed soon and the war with Israel leaves Russia with 1/6th of its invasion force. Ez 39:1,2.
China, which has withheld its troops until the 6th trumpet war, about day 944, moves it 200,000,000 man army west and kills 1/3rd of the remaining people on earth, becoming the worlds sole power as angel anti-Christ, seed and incarnation of Satan, the dragon, rules from his throne in Jerusalem.
Russia should sell its oil and gas only in Rubles or gold. This would strengthen both and weaken the Dollar. It would also loosen Europe’s connection to the US. Since there is not a readily convenient way to transact oil for rubles/gold, the Chinese gold backed Yuan could be used. Now even China benefits. The Yuan is strengthen, Russia gets gold. The Empire shrivels.
The media are constantly making a big thing of the slowness of Russian progress on the battle field.Like Russian generals are stupid and did all kinds of miscalculations. We are never informed of the economic and other strategies that are being played out. Thank you for that.
I have a thought that I would like your comment on. Do you think the Russian army is holding back, in the first place to give civilians time to leave but at the same time to create an army of refugees that will place a heavy burden on West European countries, in terms of housing, benefits, employment and thus creating an enormous economic crisis? what are your thoughts Pepe?
Glaziev nails it. Seen against the backdrop of the ongoing Russian campaign of liberating Ukraine from the Nazis and their sponsors, we have reached the exact opposite balance of forces compared to what transpired 30 years ago. Today, the EUrodents in particular have become a gang of psychobabbling, squabbling fanatics with no interest in plain reality. Seem to think that Russophobia puts food on the table, even accompanied by deindustrialization. Russia and China are working dexterously in tandem and are well on the way of ending the neoliberal tyranny. Lots of pent-up determination and force by which to settle the scores against adversaries whose only defining characteristics amount to corruption, greed, fanaticism, and incompetence on steroids.
So much nonsense.
From the top .. the US needs to put weapons in Ukraine in order to reduce the time-to-impact of their comparatively slow ballistics? There are so many ways to shoot down that lark, but let’s start with the most obvious:
1) What “Russian missile shield that can block nuclear missiles”? The one you’ve never seen in action? The US isn’t scared of unsupported claims. Can it block all 3750 simultaneously launched US warheads? No? Then it doesn’t negate MAD at all.
And the remaining most obvious:
2) Poland would make just as good a base for “closer” (shorter time-to-impact) ballistics. Why does the US need Ukraine for this? Answer: They don’t. This entire theory is preposterous.
3) The US already had a willing accomplice in Zelensky. Even if they had wanted to place faster-flight-time ballistics in Eastern Ukraine (which they didn’t), Zelensky would have been thrilled. You seem to be suggesting that such US/Ukrainian cooperation was already underway, and therefore Putin was forced to react. Evidence? None.
Excellent Article. This is the Great Awakening.
As we can see, this West-based system does everything in attempts to survive and keeps tormenting the planet. All countries are tormented so that 500 mlns drink champaigne in beautiful halls and at the same time deciding where to send troops.
Good luck with your fever dreams. I actually hope it happens. America and the EU need to cease their dependence on countries who wish the destruction of the West. If Progressives in the West want to live under communism, they will have a choice of many 3rd world countries to choose from and can move immediately. They can take their anti-commerce policies with them, though I think they will be disappointed in the East’s adoption of their climate and LGBTQ equality goals.
While I appreciate the optimism and long term perspective of this article I looks pretty delusional, tbb. Decoupling as described here in a rather orderly fashion is one thing. Rapid severance of virtually ALL economic ties ina amost chaotic manner is an entriely different matter. And yes, the >200 bn Euros of the CBR that the EU has frozen will hurt mightily! The frozen face of Nabiullina in that short clip when Putin takled with his team about sanctions was telling. It seems nobody at the CBR had bothered to repatriate these funds before starting the special operation. Why? Most likely because nobody knew what would happen , except for Putin and 1-2 very close people.
Looking at those sanctions and the Russian economy’s strcuture I cannot but assess that the russian economy will not make it past June/August if the current sanctions persist.
There is no self sufficiency, not even if you count China in. And China will squeeze Russia mightily given Russia’s now 100% depedence on beijing. China did so in almost all deals.
Whoever in the Kremlin believes that this is in any way sustainable for more than a few weeks will soon get a reality check.
I know that’s painful and unplesant to hear (I makes mealways throw up thinking of the dire consequences) but I call it as I see it. I have no military expertise to offer but I do have some knowledge of economics. All this stuff may work very long term, if carefully prepared for another decade or two. But it sure as hell won’t work now or anytime soon. That’s just pipe dreams.
The Author is missing a lot of points.
1)The Regime in Washington does not speak for the American People,
it is a Vichy like Government created by George Soros & Lord Mark Malloch Brown in Britain.This regime is detested by most free Americans in the Free States.
2)The main players are the British leading the rest of the Western Europeans (EU)
In their Century old war on the Russians.
3) They are doing this thru their NATO organization & using the Ukraine as a pawn,bait,to bring down Russia.
4) if the author wants to find a western villain it is the Pilgrims Society
5)The Globalists in the EU are working with a Financial System,Fractional Reserve Banking that is dying,that’s what their great Reset & their Virus terror is all about.
6) the Russians will win out in order to survive & world history will shift to the East1
Obrigada por sempre por compartilhar. Parabéns.
Vai ser uma mudança gradual e positiva não depender do SWIF não só pela independência da Ásia como para todos os continentes que terem mais uma forma de pagamentos/ transferências de valores.
Sua entrevista em italiano-hispânico estava excelente em conteúdo.
Enquanto isto…mortes desnecessárias acontecem pela dificuldade de determinados líderes aprenderem a ceder em nome da Paz do Mundo.
Thank you for always sharing. Congratulations. It will be a gradual and positive change not to depend on SWIFT not only for the independence of Asia but on all continents that have one more form of payments/transfers of values. His Italian-Hispanic interview was excellent in content. In the meantime… Unnecessary deaths come because of the difficulty of certain leaders learning to give in the name of World Peace.
Is Russia really looking for independent Nations to create an alternative paradise?
I am not so sure. Once Soviet Union lost its partners around the world, most of the nations were quietly taken ove by the west with its CIA arm.
Look at 4th biggest nation, Indonesia which had been strong partner of Soviet Union but is now pathetic and fully under control of the western empire. Western made products are automatically accepted in Indonesia, while Russian products must go thru a lot of stringent process.
Same goes for many countries.
Even Venezuela is using Russia and giving back so little. It is pretending to be against US while providing lots of benefits to US.
Only a few strong nations such as Hungary of Victor Orban could be strong Russian partner.
Slovakia people are for Russian alliance but they have internal traitors who push it in the opposite direction.
The above just some examples, and I can go on about many others.
Russia must think about developing or supporting alternative thinkers in each nation to develop the alternative political world.
Nothing we haven’t seen already in the ”post-soviet block”, Russia, Caucasus, more or less Yugoslavia… your turn dear Mr. West.
Querido Pepe, você orgulha o jornalismo brasileiro e eu sigo acompanhando seu crescimento diário de seguidores no twitter. Esse sucesso é resultado de décadas de esforço pessoal e de sua mente brilhante! Cá estamos no Brasil, sem mortes por guerra, mas também como o povo ucraniano, sendo vítimas do império do caos e da mentira desde o último golpe que eles patrocinaram por aqui em 2016. Oxalá estejamos testemunhando o inicio da queda deste império maligno e cruel comandado pelos Masters of Universe. O mundo todo deveria agradecer de joelhos jornalistas como você e seus colegas de trabalho por revelarem a verdade sobre o que está por detrás dos acontecimentos mundiais. Obrigado e continue a nos proporcionar estes textos maravilhosos!
Mod – machine translation:
Dear Pepe, you make the Brazilian journalism proud and I follow your daily growth of followers on twitter. This success is the result of decades of personal effort and your brilliant mind! Here we are in Brazil, with no deaths by war, but also like the Ukrainian people, being victims of the empire of chaos and lies since the last coup they sponsored here in 2016. I hope we are witnessing the beginning of the fall of this evil and cruel empire commanded by the Masters of Universe. The whole world should thank journalists like you and your co-workers for revealing the truth about what’s behind world events. Thank you and continue to provide us with these wonderful texts!
West European and East European members of NATO are essentially occupied by the US and their foreign policy is now completely set by Washington. So currently Germany is ordering its leading businesses to halt cooperation with Russia as duly instructed by the US NATO overlords.
An example is BMW production, parts and sales. But here’s the thing. In 2017 during height of the US Democrat manufactured hysteria over ‘Russian Collusion’, to both undermine Trump and explain away the inconvenient Democrat-insider leaking of Clinton’s emails, BMW also adhered to US ordered sanctions regime. And what did BMW learn from this? They learnt it is very expensive disaster for German industrial manufacturer who are large exporters to abide with US geopolitical goals that are at odds with German export driven companies.
As soon as BMW pulled back from in Russia in 2017, the Japanese Toyota Corporation, who pitch their Lexus brand into same market slot, ramped up exports and marketing in Russia. And if German industry snubs Russians, why would Russians remain brand loyal to German companies? Lexus are certainly reliable and well engineered automobiles. Arguably, they have better dealer service, and the cars are not engineered with such obvious built-in-obsolescence as the medium to high end German models, that invariably incur large services costs just as the warranty ends at the two year mark. Designed to prompt brand loyal consumers to upgrade to newest models.
The point being, the membership of NATO is a hindrance to its European members economies, both in macro and micro double bind. But it is more than just that, membership of NATO is effectively handing over all foreign policy sovereignty to the will of the US. This situation will only get worse, as the US now dominates NATO with an iron grip. Forcing compliance on other members with increasing threats of being subject to large fines, and/ or trade sanctioning themselves over any non-compliance to US directives. The days of joining NATO as if it were a 1950’s Atlantic Defense Pact are long gone,now it’s entirely a US strategic tool to occupy and dominate the European member states, forcing them into the US’ geo-strategic goals, whatever the political and economic costs to the other members.
I’m afraid that while Ukraine is a Russian vital national security issue, the unipolar world order is considered a vital national security issue to the West. As a consequence, the West will continue their mission creep with increased arms and ammo to the Z govt, fooling themselves into thinking NATO isn’t crossing any Russian redline. What choice does the Putin govt have but to stop that existentially threatening arms and ammo conduit?
Mr Escobar… never disappoints.