By Noel Monteiro — first published on the Saker Blog
Telluria vs Thalassa Part 1
In one of his poems, Robert Frost says “good fences make good neighbours.” Yet in the 73 years of its existence, India has had border problems with all its neighbouring Asian states, while it allies are distant overseas states. Then on June 15 a unique battle occurred, medieval in practice, in Galwan Valley, Kashmir. The outcome of the battle was a direct result of India’s border policies with its neighbours. This writeup will only try to address two aspects. (ONE) Some of India’s border aspects as an indicator of (TWO) the type of political state entity within Asia, India may genuinely be.
IRON RODS IN DISPUTED AREAS: A number of questions arise here. Article 1 of the 1993 agreement between India and China states the following, among others: Neither side shall use or threaten to use force against the other by any means. Reading this legal 1993 document, use of iron rods cannot be anything but “use force against the other”, and so the question here is, was this use of force signaling a consistent three-year state-of-war on China’s Belt & Road Initiative infrastructure? Was this decision the result of war-gaming studies by the Indian army? Was this a type of Rules of Engagement imposed by India?
India is a modern responsible state in the world. Therefore, from its army’s war-gaming studies, was it India’s deliberate intention, for three years, to make null-and-void all border agreements, multiple times, by multiple Indian troops, on multiple occasions, at multiple points in the disputed areas? The Law’s ambit can be perceived both as the “Spirit of the Law”, and also the “Letter of the law.” Yet it seems strange, that no one in the Indian leadership understood that breaking the Spirit of any signed Agreement, signals non-peace, if not outright war, irrespective where a claimed border may be.
To be sure, I have a sneaky suspicion that irons were used continuously and blatantly, in the hope, that some exasperated and hotheaded Chinese border guard would open fire on Indian soldiers. Then Indian propaganda would immediately swing into outraged action, screaming how Chinese troops had fired upon innocent unarmed Indian troops without any provocation, thus delivering to India a propaganda coup. But China’s troops held an iron discipline and never took the bait, and yet feelings of intense revenge grew in their hearts, which they acted upon on June 15, within India’s Rules of Engagement.
Reading the news reports of the use of irons, it was possible to discern an unmistakable sub-text directed at an Indian audience, which reads something like this. “Look how clever the Indian troops are. They are not breaking any law. They are simply bending the rules to enforce India’s own national interest.”
It is remarkable that not a single Indian or Western writer has written to question the reason, why Indian troops did this in Disputed Areas for so long. Especially since in the very same Disputed Areas in October 1962, India lost 4,800 men killed, and 4,000 taken prisoners of war. One Indian POW, the uncle of a close friend, named Pascoal Rodrigues from Mangalore, Karnataka, was released in 1992, because India and China were in a state of war for 30 years.
To understand India’s actions, look at this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vBgycTUX20 filmed by Indian troops from the Bhutan-China border at Doklam in July 2017. The camera placement is exactly on the Bhutan-China border, looking down into Chinese territory, where 150 meters Forward, Chinese construction workers, inside China and building a road to the Bhutan border, are being beaten up. The Indian military were on Forward Policy deployment. Indian journalist Pravin Sawhney was quite precise this fighting occurred 150 metres inside China. Bhutan and India have no written defence agreement.
INDIA’S FORWARD POLICY: A layman’s way to describe this policy is, if your next door neighbour, consistently and willfully walked in front of your house, and far FORWARD of his own home, and you bump with one-another, when going into and out of your own house.
During India’s disastrous 1962 war against China, India started the fighting on October 10, with its Operation Leghorn. Ten days later on October 20 China responded overwhelmingly, and rapidly overran at least 43 Forward Posts on its territory, advanced about 60 kms to its own claim line, stopped, and returned back, possibly to negotiate and establish clear borders. Two senior Indian army officers, Lt Gen. Henderson Brooks and Brig. Preminder Bhagat, who were commissioned to write why the defeat occurred, wrote about how the Forward Policy, among other factors, contributed to the defeat. The 190-page Brooks-Bhagat Report was never published by India, though Indian army officers leaked a copy to Australian journalist Neville Maxwell, who used the report as the foundation, to write a book, called India’s China War (1970). Maxwell devotes about 86 enlightening pages to India’s Forward Policy.
The book is a treasure trove of historical information about British colonial border policy, a practice which post-1947 India continued for 73 years, as the new Hindu-dominated colonial overlord, upon all its neighbours.
The Brooks-Bhagat Report and Neville Maxwell’s 1970 book are two of the the main source texts for Wikipedia entries about India’s Forward Policy. Wikipedia explains the start of the Forward Policy in a very cryptic, and incomplete manner thus:
British author Neville Maxwell traces this confidence to Mullik (sic), who was in regular contact with the CIA station chief in New Delhi..
Deciphering this passage, by using original texts, we understand that then Director of India’s Police Intelligence Bureau, Mr B.M. Malik, to give his correct name and designation, was the liaison between the Indian government and the CIA station chief in 1961, probably in New Delhi, from where the Forward Policy was thought up. This Forward Policy gave India the confidence to face China’s demands on their common border. B.N.Malik was a civilian, trusted by Prime Minister Jawararlal Nehru, because Malik also kept an eye out for coup attempts against Nehru. In 1962, this policeman also suggested on Indian army maps, to India’s generals, where troops should be placed. Malik was that powerful.
The wrong way to read Wikipedia, is to read it as a propaganda outlet. The correct way to read Wikipedia is, as a one-sided strategic information warfare outlet of the west and India, from which information gems can be gleaned. We have a second insight into how Indian troops were instructed under the Forward Policy and again I quote:
The Indian government maintained that the intention of the McMahon Line was to set the border along the highest ridges, and that the international border fell on the highest ridges of Thag La, about 3 to 4 miles (4.8 to 6.4 km) north of the line drawn by Henry McMahon on the treaty map.
Again using source texts, we understand, that the colonial British-era Henry McMahon Line border, which ran down in the valley, was deliberately interpreted by India as the starting point to claim the highest ridge (ThagLa Ridge) “3 to 4 miles” inside Chinese territory, as India’s real border. Indian troops were then issued maps to occupy that height, despite there being a perfectly good height feature overlooking the McMahon Line from inside India. About 2,886 Indian soldiers were killed in 1962, in the ThagLa Ridge-BomdiLa sector alone.
A Forward Policy is not a confidence building measure. A Forward Policy has tactical aspects, as a tripwire function, or with the intention to intimidate neighbouring states or opponents, and occupy their geographic areas, or seize their assets, if the opportunity arises. Some examples in history are:
—English privateer sloops, heavily gunned, holding up and looting Spanish galleons returning to Spain from the Americas.
—The Wild Weasel project that USA ran in Vietnam was a forward policy.
—Israel claiming the right to attack Iranian positions in Syria is a forward policy.
—US navy vessels claiming right of passage in the South China Sea is a forward policy.
Thus it is safe to say, that consistent practice of a Forward Policy, leads to consistent border instability, a breakup of border agreements and thus warfare.
CLAIM LINES & BORDER ISSUES:
During the 1947 partition, one simple formula was agreed upon by all parties thus. All Hindu majority provinces would go to India, and similarly Muslim majority areas to Pakistan. Kashmir is a Muslim majority territory. India occupied it claiming that the Hindu ruler had made a deal with India. At the same time, down south, on India’s Gujarat coast, the Muslim ruler of the princely states of Junagadh and Manavadar, wrote to join Pakistan, even though 80 percent of his subjects were Hindus. India sent in troops to take over the states, because of the Hindu majority. A clear case of “One Rule For Thee and Another Rule for Me.” Pakistan took the case to the United Nations, which decided that India must hold a vote, so that Kashmiris may choose either Pakistan or India. India never held the plebiscite, because it would loose the vote. The four clear parties to this Kashmir dispute, are Pakistan, India, China and the people of Kashmir.
India, Pakistan and Bangladesh as the former East Pakistan, have borders demarcated by the British in 1947. Indian border guards, claiming they are on Indian territory, have shot dead poor Bangladeshi farmers. What can poor Bangladesh do? Indian troops regularly enter Bhutan, Sikkim, and Nepal, claiming to “protect” these small states from China, but in reality to interdict China from the territory of these states, in a variation of the Forward Policy. Earlier this year, India issued new maps showing Nepalese territory as Indian areas, without consulting Nepal. Then, Indian border guards entering to occupy areas shown on their maps as Indian, have been shot dead by Hindu Nepalese border guards. India also economically blockades Nepal at will. Pakistan’s border with India in Kashmir is always hot, with artillery duels, sniper firing and regular death tolls.
India’s situation with China has its own characteristics. During the full span of the British raj, at different times, about 11 Claim Lines were announced, in north India, named after colonial officers, or geographers, who worked on them. e.g.The Johnson Line and the McMahon Line are two them. They are simply Claim Lines, not real borders, and appeared as lines on a map for administrative and negotiation purposes. In 1947, India issued a new Claim Line in places about 175 kms further into Tibet, than any previous British colonial administration had ever done before. This led Chairman Mao-Tse-Tung, to conclude that Hindu-majority India intended to seize all of Tibet. Since China does not agree to India’s claims, both states never finalised their borders for 71 years.
Many minor agreements were signed by India and China, e.g. for ending the 1962 war, for peace on the border 1993, but never comprehensive border agreements, like those between EU states where people can move freely through. The last iteration of inconclusive border talks are the grandly named “22nd Meeting Of The Special Representatives For Settlement of the India-China Boundary Question”, which was held on Dec 21, 2019, in New Delhi. Why 22 inconclusive meetings since 2005? Because India till 2020, has a weighty problem about whether the Peoples’s Republic of China has “sovereignty” or “suzerainty” over Tibet. Since 1949, China has concluded clear border agreements with 14 neighbouring states, but could get nowhere with India.
THALASSIC & TELLURIC STATES: To summarise, there is obviously a problem on the borders of all countries neighbouring India. Therefore, I use a simple set of ideas, or a theoretical lens, similar to a thinking tool, to better understand this situation. The Saker’s Anglo-Zionist empire framework, and writings about Ukraine vis-a-vis Russia was a useful starting point. There are however problems when it comes to India, because India is neither Anglo nor Zionist, and so other theoretical devices must be tried. Then I obtained an idea of the Telluric-Thalassic framework, from an article I read a long time ago, by a Russian writer. But for the life of me, I was unable to again relocate the article, or the name of the writer. The words Telluria and Thalassa, simply mean “land” and “sea” respectively.
The Telluric states idea corresponds roughly to British Geographer Halford Mackinder’s framework of the World Island states. i.e. All Asian landmass states. These states may include Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan among many, others, that have combined politically and militarily for common defence and treaty purposes. In official Chinese parlance, as propounded in Chinese media, Pakistan is officially China’s Iron Brother. India, despite being geographically in Asia, cannot be included in Telluria, because it has defence treaties with Thalassic states USA, Japan and Australia, and is not economically linked with either Central Asia, East Asia or South Asia, is not a member of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, or the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program, or even the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and in July 2020 Iran tossed out India from its Chabahar Port, Rail, and Gas Exploration Project. Its purchases of Russian weapons are predicated simply on the weak strength of the Indian currency.
The Thalassic states framework corresponds to Mackinder’s Rimland and Island states, which are geographically far away, and may be militarily, in opposition to, the Asian landmass. These states control the sea routes, with ships, nuclear weapons, and alliances, capable of laying waste to large areas of Asia. Among these Thalassic states are USA, and its First-Line allies UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, Israel and the EU states. India is a loyal “also-ran” ally of Thalassa. Thus Thalassic India can be perceived, existing as a geographical Forward Policy practitioner, against Telluric states.
This framework can be set aside if impractical, and another theoretical tool is used instead, if the analytical situation warrants. It is not an idee fixe. But if the Telluric-Thalassic idea is valid, then a broad rethink, and rewrite may become necessary, about all the wars between Pakistan, India and China. Whether these wars were actually between a Telluric Pakistan and China, pitted against a Thalassic India.
CHINA’S KASHMIR BORDER POLICY WITH INDIA: China’s border policy with India over Kashmir is a very simple statement of 11 words, conveyed many times by Chinese leaders to India since 2010. It reads thus: China does not share a common border with India in Kashmir. Indian journalist Pravin Sawhney explains this policy very well. After listening to Sawhney, you will ask yourself whether south Asia’s lack of development in the last 71 years is the deliberate actions of a Thalassic India. For 71 years India had the opportunity to unite all south Asia in a common economic bloc, but neither recognised that leadership mantle, nor that responsibility. With China’s rise, India lost that opportunity for good. With China’s rise, India is now in the unenviable geographic position of a juicy sugarcane stalk, between hard Telluric and Thalassic rollers. India is strong today, only because it is connected economically, to the strong Thalassic states. As the economic strength of Thalassa wanes, so too does India’s power. We must watch, the many ways India’s western elites continue to hold this Thalassic position, even as they fool themselves that they are running with the Telluric hares, and hunting with the Thalassic hounds? —License CC, Translations Permitted.
1.—-Frost, Robert 1874-1963, Poem “Mending Wall”. https://poets.org/poem/mending wall
4.—-Events leading to the Sino-Indian War
5.—-Maxwell, Neville, 1970 Jaico Books, Chapter 3 Forward Policy Pages 171-259. See this site to Download an e-book edition.
6.—-Brooks, Lt.Gen. T.B.Henderson, Bhagat, Brig.P, 1993, Report on India’s defeat by China in Oct-Nov 1962 War. (Leaked Version)
7.—-Force Magazine YouTube Channel Editor Pravin Sawhney
9.—-AngloZionist Short Primer
10. —-Terehov, V, (16-01-2020) Update on Issues Stemming from Border Disputes between India and PRC…https://journal-neo.org/2020/01/16/update-on-issues-stemming-from-border-disputes-between-india-and-prc/
Telluria vs Thalassa Part 2
16th Bihar was lured, trapped & annihilated
On August 5, 2019, the Indian parliament voted to brush aside the UN-protected status of Kashmir, as well as announce that all of disputed Kashmir was now Indian territory, and would be seized forcefully. Kashmir is also claimed by Pakistan and China. This parliamentary decision had the effect of alarms bells in Asian capitals, signaling, “To Arms, To Arms”.
Hasty military infrastructure construction began along India’s northern border, including two all weather roads aimed towards the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) network in Tibet. Two military bases began to be constructed close to Karakoram Pass, and Lipulekh Pass, where the two roads end. The first road in Ladakh, the Darbuk-Daulat Baig Oldi road, along the west bank of the Shyok River, to the Karakoram Pass. The second road through Nepalese territory to Lipulekh Pass. Nepalese protests to India were ignored, or brushed aside, and construction continued. China understood very well, that under previously signed agreements between India and USA, India simply hands over control of those border bases to US troops, who may then at will, interdict the BRI in Tibet.
Pakistan media reported that a Ladakh domicile status has been given to 25,000 Hindutva political cadres, so that they may settle down along the Kashmir border with China. The purpose, to create Hindu settler facts-on-the-ground, in a majority Buddhist area of Ladakh, claimed by China. More Hindu cadres will join as time passes, if only for a career leg up in a failing Indian economy. A Domicile Certificate is a government authority stating that the holder is a bonafide Ladakh or Kashmir-born person. It is used in preferential government job quotas, recruitment quotas in bureaucracy, armed services, and preferential land and property, resettlement allocations. These 25,000, may then form ISIS-like kernels, to stage possible Satyagraha armed volunteer incursions into Tibet, supported by media coverage operations. Maxwell (1970) explains Satyagraha as the passive Indian civil disobedience movement against the British before 1947. Satyagraha were successfully used by India to take over Goa.
Two years before August 5, 2019, India had begun to create an offensive 85,000-man strike formation for its northern border with China. The words Telluria and Thalassa, simply mean “land” and “sea” respectively. Telluria corresponds to the states which occupy the Asian world island continent. Thalassa corresponds to the outlying island and rimland states, with large navies and economies that control the seas, and position themselves in opposition to Telluric states. See Part 1 for a broader explanation.
Early in 2020 new Indian-issue maps showed Nepali areas bordering China, as being in India. Telluria took notice, that after the fronts in Syria, Ukraine, Hong Kong in September 2020, and the South China Sea, Thalassic states were preparing a new war front against China’s province of Tibet. It is within this context, that Indian border troops were interdicting the BRI, by beating up Chinese construction workers.
Since India has shed UN protections, China responded in the first week of May 2020, by bringing up 200,000 troops to occupy the same disputed border areas, that India had refused to jointly demarcate, further making null and void, every single measly border agreement. Pakistan also brought up troops. This is the military and political background to the Galwan Valley entrapment. This report was compiled after going through about 250 items of information over six weeks, from Indian and Pakistani sources, including websites, news items and videos, too numerous to list in the references.
GALWAN’S SIGNIFICANCE: If Indian troops were to drive East through the Galwan valley, they could emerge directly onto the west Tibetan plateau at Aksai Chin, where a BRI road connects Lhasa with Sinkiang. On the other hand, if China occupies the heights at the mouth of the Galwan River, it can interdict the all-weather road on the west bank of the Shyok River, impacting the route north for Indian troops to Siachin Glacier and Karakoram Pass, and also enable a Telluric military advance west to Kargil, Jammu and Kashmir. The Galwan valley terrain itself is narrow, with the fast flowing Galwan River, fed in summer by melting snows from 60 degree slopes rising 2,000 to 3,000 feet. See this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sHyBRnArGE. Sun Tzu writes:
——-With regard to narrow passes, if you can occupy them first,
let them be strongly garrisoned, and await the advent of the enemy.
#8 Chpt 10 Narrow Passes, Terrain, Sun Tzu, The Art of War.
FIRST CONTACT: India made repeated requests, for Chinese troops to go back, and help defuse the situation. A border flag meeting was agreed upon by the respective army generals for June 6, 2020. Among one of the ultimatums that the Chinese general ostensibly made to his Indian counterpart, was that the Indian parliament should immediately reinstate Kashmir’s status as a UN-protected territory, otherwise China would occupy the entire Galwan Valley. The Indian general’s demands are not known, though a vacuous press release was issued. Since the Chinese troop movements in May, this is the first time, our attention is drawn to Galwan Valley. We are not aware what other lures were used to bait India’s attention to Galwan Valley. Sun Tzu says
——Hold out baits to entice the enemy.
Feign disorder and crush him.
#20, Chpt 1, Laying Plans. Sun Tzu, The Art of War.
CONTACT: On June 14, 2020, Chinese lookouts, one km away on the East bank of the Shyok River were rewarded with the sight of Indian troops mustering on the West bank, setting up camp along the Darbuk-Daulat Baig Oldi road. Pravin Sawhney used the word “Theek Thak” battalion to describe its strength. A Hindi word meaning a “good-ly” or “strong” battalion. A normal Indian infantry battalion has about 500 to 800 men. Pravin Sawhney, a former Indian army officer, has the greatest integrity of any Indian journalist I have seen. Chinese lookouts and helicopters carefully and repeatedly counted the Indian numbers, and photographed the movements, to note their weapons.
On June 15, at 5.00pm evening, the 16th Battalion, Bihar Regiment, began their foray by crossing the Shyok to the Eastern bank, at or near the mouth of the Galwan River. As they crossed, the Chinese lookouts noted and reported no firearms, says Sawhney. The short iron bars may have been up their sleeves, as expected. Predictably, India’s leadership had swallowed China’s bait, and ordered 16th Bihar to police the Galwan that night. Nightfall comes early in narrow mountain valleys. The temperature is freezing in June, with snow melt, and overflowing fast flowing streams and the rivers. Indian graphics show the battalion walked probably two kilometres into the valley. It was now approximately 7.00 to 9.00pm and dark, with only the snow on the top reflecting the starlight.
Well into the valley, they came across, what looked like, a few unarmed Chinese “construction workers”. Here the information gets positively surreal, a la Bollywoodesque. In the dark, the colonel-in-charge, with his Theek-Thak battalion around him, is said to have explained to the lowly Chinese construction workers, that “he was personally sent by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss the possibility of helicoptering a news film crew, either to Galwan Valley or the nearby Pangong Lake where Bollywood films are made, to show that All Is Well between China and India.”
At this point, many things happen all at once, the narrative is not complete, not precise. The Indian colonel and two men moved to attack the construction workers to beat them up, and are dispatched efficiently; these Chinese “construction workers” were actually special forces; an Indian radio message was sent that they were dead; simultaneously, sudden massive cold water flows, distracting and scattering Indian soldiers to the river banks; Chinese soldiers appear out of the dark; swinging sticks; Indians are unable to see the 6 inch nails on the sticks; Indians get close for hand-to hand combat with short iron rods; they are felled by the nails; Indians trying to escape the way they came from, are blocked, and felled. I am using my non-fiction skills in this para.
The estimated 400 to 600 Indian group had wrongly assumed they would beat, or maim, some construction workers in the dark, and return to camp mess the same night for dinner. For three years India had imposed a Rule of Engagement by iron rods, and no firearms in the disputed areas. Now China’s army kept to the same Rule of Engagement, with hand weapons of their own.
One Pakistani report said there were 300 Chinese soldiers engaged, but could have been more. A later report said the 300, were a small contingent from a 200,000-man special force, newly raised and trained in the use of medieval weaponry. Whatever the sequence of events, we may be certain that from both sides, about 700 to 900 healthy, able-bodied fighting men, were engaged for five hours that night, without a shot being fired. By 1.00am on June 16, it was all over. Thalassic India’s 16th Battalion, Bihar Regiment walked into a night-time trap and was annihilated. Annihilated simply means that a cohesive military force can no longer be fielded for war-fighting purposes, because its men were either killed, injured, missing, captured, run away, or incapacitated in battle. The Galwan Valley was fought over, now without UN protections to India, and fell into China’s hands. By any yardstick either imaginable or in the modern military archives, this was a truly unique and astounding battle, where melee and water weapons, were used to grind down an Indian group to nothing. Never hear of such an event before! Sun Tzu writes:
——Now in order to kill the enemy, our men must be roused to anger; that
there may be advantage from defeating the enemy, they must have their rewards.
#16 Chpt 2, Waging War, Sun Tzu, The Art of War.
In the days after, images of coffins, draped in the Indian flag, in south Indian churches began appearing only once on social media, and were immediately taken down, as fast as they were put up. Many of the dead were Christian soldiers from south India. Then two weeks later, YouTube showed mass funerals of Hindu soldiers.
WHAT WE DON’T KNOW: Military secrecy by both countries means we cannot know exact numbers, casualties, how water as a weapon was used, and how the battalion crossed the Shyok. Battles are recorded by winners, not the loosing side, and so, because their men did not return, we cannot expect the Indian side to know most details either. Weeks later, an Indian politician asked parliament whether 250 soldiers were killed, and an inconclusive response was given. The official Indian media line is “20 killed in a skirmish”. The truth may be something else.
The Chinese side will not release details, because Thalassa’s war on Tibet has yet to begin. Galwan was only the first of many hammer blows delivered to a Thalassic India.
Did satellites record the battle in infrared? Days later some daylight photos of the Galwan Valley appeared on an Australian website. It is possible some party, or country recorded the night battle. Nothing has been released as yet.
The puzzling aspect in all this was China’s 200,000-man special medieval weapons force. Are they real? Were they raised to combat India’s Hindutva and Satyagraha infantry formations, similar to military irregulars, like ISIS troops?
A. Predictability: The predictability of Indian troop behaviour and movements in time, indicates the Indians had done this nightly beatings times before, and the Chinese army, learned and planned accordingly. This was not a random night patrol.
B. The 5.00pm start timing, indicates the Indian leadership, from Prime Minister Narendra Modi downwards, approved the night-time raids, or had knowledge of the night time actions on China’s BRI construction workers.
C. The baiting, entrapment and annihilation of a marauding Indian military group, had to have been war-gamed by the Chinese army, to find the optimum tactical location, conditions, military objective, and the desired strategic effect on the Indian leadership and polity, among others.
D. Words like “skirmish”, “face-off”, “20 killed”, are verbal disguises, presented to hide the true intentions of India, which cannot admit the raw truth. That a Thalassic India was the silent, stealthy border aggressor for some time.
E. Some Messages To India: We too have not used firearms. If you put your troops in our path, we are cunning enough to annihilate you, irrespective of what tricks you may want to play. We know what you are up to. We know you. Galwan Valley is back with us, try and take it from us.
F. Message To Thalassa: By this small victory, China threw down the gauntlet of war, in front of Thalassa’s stealthy preparations along India’s border, and the message was received loud and clear by both the Telluric and Thalassic states. “We are Ready for War” is China’s message. This very same message passed clear over the heads of all Indians.
G. It took six days for India to make a thunderous and sanctimonious media announcement, almost an admonishment, that in future all its soldiers must carry their individual weapons or firearms. But what else do modern soldiers normally carry?
H. It took 30 days, before Indian media announced the fact, that the Galwan “skirmish” (India’s terminology) was well planned by China long before June 15. It took India 30 days to realise this fact.
I. The defeat had the effect of psychologically stupefying into inaction, both the Indian elites as well as the Indian body politic, with its defence minister madly scrabbling in panic in international capitals for tactical weapons. This stupefaction, an intended and successful military objective, has bought Telluria a vital gap of time-space, so as to force India, into not bothering China, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Iran, as they go about their preparations for the Telluric-Thalassic “skirmishes” ahead.
J. This battle was fought only after India unprotected itself, by unilaterally removing vital UN cover protections over Kashmir.
K. One could even make a case, that the intended effect of the “skirmish” was to remind India, of its 1962 defeat by China, which brought 58 years of peace on the China-India border, and thus to mentally re-condition India, exactly like Pavlov’s dog, not to meddle with China, for the next 58 years. —License CC, Translations Permitted.
—-Sun Szu, The Art of War, 2014, Lionel Giles 1910 Translation. Word Cloud Classics, San Diego.
—-Maxwell, Neville, 1970 Jaico Books, Chapter 3 Forward Policy Pages 171-259. See this site to Download an e-book edition.
—-Brooks, Lt.Gen. T.B.Henderson, Bhagat, Brig.P, 1993, Report on India’s defeat by China in Oct-Nov 1962 War. (Leaked Version)
—-Force Magazine YouTube Channel Editor Pravin Sawhney
Telluria vs Thalassa Part 3
What may a war between India, Pakistan & China look like
The first question that must be asked is “Will a war occur or not?” This must be asked because a lot of people in the world, assume that an India-China war will not occur for good reason.
India is an Asian neighbour, with strong trade links with China, and neither China nor Pakistan see profit in invading India.
The words Telluria and Thalassa, simply mean “land” and “sea” respectively. Telluria corresponds to the states which occupy the Asian world island continent. Thalassa corresponds to the outlying island and rimland states, with large navies and economies that control the seas, and position themselves in opposition to Telluric states. See Part 1 for a broader explanation.
Exports from Telluric China to Thalassic India, are less than 2 percent (1.8 percent actually) of total China’s exports over all, while Indian imports from China amount to 60 percent of its total country imports, and include mundane items like fireworks for Hindu religious festivals, mobile phones, airconditioners, and electronic consumer items like plasma TVs. Financial earnings include income earnings to the Indian population from TicToc media, and income earnings from Bollywood blockbusters. A Bollywood blockbuster can earn three times more money in the China film market, as compared to total earnings in India. Thus swathes of Bollywood do not see economic sense in a war with China.
The Telluric states do not want a war on the southern borders of Asia, and especially instability in South Asia. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is designed as a peaceful trading network. On the other had, Thalassic states see the BRI as a clear and present danger, to their sole control of world-wide trade, flows of money, and strength of their economy. Further, Thalassic India lends itself easily as a useful south Asian battering ram against the prosperous world island, and Indian racism against the Chinese is no small element in play here. More to the point, India’s elites, see themselves as being in the vanguard in the fight against Chinese ethnic peoples. After the India’s China war in 1962, pogrom attacks were begun against ethnic Chinese refugees in India, with small family businesses, from previous Civil wars in China. India began the 1962 war with Operation Leghorn on Oct 10, 1962. These Chinese people left India for Canada and USA taking their considerable fortunes with them.
But if a war occurs, what may it look like?
The Telluric militaries of China and Pakistan are interoperative, and Iran will also play a role. But Thalassic India has an agreement to let USA forces use their bases along with a Quad arrangement with Japan and Australia, and has the sympathetic interest of UK and France. On the other hand, think of this as Telluria’s one-in-a-100-year opportunity to stick it to a destructive Thalassic Indian state, in their midst in Asia.
WAR SEASON, TERRAIN & TIMING: Owing to flooding in the monsoon season, the bulk of past India-Pakistan wars in the northern riverine plains have occurred from the end of August , after the ground hardens for vehicles and armour movement.
However, Chinese troops train in, and are equipped for fighting in mountainous and cold areas. Two examples: In India’s China war of 1962, from Oct 20, to Nov 21. During the Korean war, in minus 30 degree conditions, from October 18, 1950 to December 24 1950, Chinese volunteer troops fought UN troops.
Since the first week of May 2020, Chinese troops have entered into all forward disputed border areas, shared with, or claimed by India. In the process they have chased away all Indian forces who previously used to make hay, occupying mountain tops kilometres deep into disputed territory, to have Chinese troops under their guns, under India’s own Forward Policy. In unison, Chinese and Pakistani troops have moved into border defensive points, to get into position before the end of August. All along the Pakistan border with India, Pakistani screening forces are being deployed to forward defensive positions, in the event of India expanding the Kashmir war into Pakistan territory, just like India did in the 1965 Kashmir war. If this war begins, it may become one continuous front of 2,000 kms, along India’s border with Pakistan and China. But what about the timing?
This year in 2020, a perfect concatenation of circumstances will arise, from the November US elections, to the January 3 anniversary of the assassination of Gen. Qasem Soleimani, and buildup of Thalassic navy forces in the South China Sea. Let us hope and pray that nothing happens.
FORCE NUMBERS & DOMAINS: These are only some of the relevant forces. China has brought up 200,000 men of Tibet’s western command, and a further unconfirmed 200,000 men of a special force, some of whom were used in the Galwan entrapment.
India has 45,000 men in Kashmir, and 85,000 men from a new strike formation especially for operations in Tibet. India has an unknown number of Hindutva and Satyagraha armed volunteer cadres. India has an average sex ration of 108.176 men to 100 females, with a 2011 gender ratio of 21,813,264 more males in rural, and 13,872,275 more males in urban areas, than Indian females. These numbers could be India’s volunteer resource base. China now sees Indian troops as a clear and present danger to the BRI in Tibet and Pakistan.
India is capable of fighting in the three domains of air, land and sea warfare. China can operate in the air, land, sea, space, cyber, and electronic warfare domains, six in all. Pakistan can operate in the air, land and sea domains. In the February 2019 Balakot attack, Pakistan successfully demonstrated an electronic warfare capability by jamming electronics on Indian jet fighters, so that pilots were unable to hear instructions from Indian ground control to return to base. Pakistan shot down two Indian jet fighters, while Indian defences shot down their own helicopter, killing seven airforce personnel, assuming it was a Pakistani copter trying to land commandos behind Indian lines. Thus Pakistan demonstrated a good electronics warfare component.
NUCLEAR: Pakistan, India and China possess nuclear weapons, but also their respective allies USA, UK, Israel, and Russia.
RULES OF ENGAGEMENT: What will be Rules of Engagement? We have an interesting example from the 2019 Indian Balakot air strike. Pakistan correctly read Thalassic India’s attack as an intention to establish new rules of engagement, where India stages a false-flag attack against itself, loudly and publicly blames Pakistan, then immediately proceeds to attack Pakistan, claiming a right of hot pursuit, exactly as Israel does with Palestinians and its Arab neighbours. Thalassic India would then go on to interdict the BRI network of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Telluric Pakistan responded by first informing Thalassa, it was prepared to escalate with nuclear weapons. Then immediately countered with its own rules of engagement which were “Indian attack times five”. This is how Pakistan imposed its own counter-rules of engagement. Using television bombs, Pakistani jets carried out five attacks on Indian Kashmir’s wooded areas, right alongside one Indian divisional military headquarters, one Indian brigade headquarters, and three other subsidiary army headquarters. The television bomb footage was then shown on TV and social media. No one was killed in the Indian attack on Balakot, and also no one was killed 24 hours later, in the five Pakistani attacks on the five Indian military headquarters. Interestingly, just before the Pakistan retaliatory bombing was to take place, Pakistani intelligence, discovered that Indian Chief of Staff, General Bipin Rawat, was present in the targetted divisional headquarters. So the Pakistanis hailed the Indian HQ via radio, to inform Gen Rawat of the attack on the HQ. The general and his entourage did a runner from the Divisional HQ, and a few minutes later a single television bomb hit the wooded area beside the HQ. One Indian attack to five responses will be the rule, to deter a Thalassic India.
INFORMATION WARFARE: This spectrum forms a peculiar component of warfare. Thalassic India has a formidable internal Edward Bernaysian tactical structure, pointed inwards, directed at fragmenting its own population, as well as for consumption by the western Bernaysian news networks. While a large segment of India’s strategic information warfare component, is projected on behalf of Thalassa by Wikipedia and similar Western main stream media (MSN). Bollywood is part of this information structure. India has an ineffective English language information warfare component that may affect Pakistan or China. Pakistan has the Urdu language, while China’s is Mandarin. Profound linguistic disconnect is present. Neither Pakistan nor China employ correspondingly similar Bernaysian information structures. It’s simply not present. However, both countries are no information slouches. All true propaganda is based on some truth. On the rare occasions when both countries put out information, everyone pays attention, and the results are devastating. I’ll narrate two examples.
Example A Pakistan: India, a few months ago, claimed that Pakistan had killed a lot of India army men in an attack in Kashmir, and so Indian media began baying for a retaliation on Pakistan. For four days Pakistani media was silent. Indian media read this silence as having won an information war walkover. Then Pakistan’s director of Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), appeared on television, and gave a simple statement. He said something along the lines of: “The Indian army must be holding the funerals of their officers and soldiers, whom they claimed we killed, in the darkness of the night. Because, on Indian television, we have not seen any funerals taking place, to honour their dead.” This statement resulted in much laughter in social media, in both India and Pakistan, which squelched any further demand for war.
Example B China: When it does happen, China has a simple media image component, which has the effect of Tai Chi. During the start of the Covid19 situation, western media were happily prattling on about how the virus would only infect the Chinese people. China’s TicTok began putting out images of ordinary Chinese people keeling over prostrate in the street, roads bricked across, and communities isolated. The Thalassic information manager component were unaffected, and were in fact gleeful. The Western body politic however, in all countries, looking at these images, became deeply affected with dread about the virus, and began looking inwards, to realise the virus rampant among themselves.
KINETIC CONFLICT AREAS: Only two areas come immediately to mind. 1, Siliguri Chicken Neck and 2, Kashmir:
Siliguri Corridor: This is a goose-necked shaped piece of land, mostly alluvial plains, about 22 kms at it narrowest, and 60 kms long, between Bangladesh to the south, and Nepal, Sikkim and Bhutan to the north. By interdicting this heavily defended land corridor, China can separate seven north-eastern provinces from the rest of India. These provinces are Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, and Bodoland. Arunachal Pradesh used to be part of Tibet.
Kashmir: China has a well stated policy which reads: “China does not have a common border with India in Kashmir.” It would be interesting to see how China prosecutes that policy. The bigger battle however may be against Pakistan.
Maxwell (1970) says that since 1947, India maintained two infantry divisions, and an armoured component based in Jhansi, dedicated to attack and seize the city of Lahore, in the event Pakistan reached out to take disputed Kashmir by force. This scenario occurred in the 1965 war when the single Jammu road, and Kashmir, was almost captured by Pakistan forces, when Lahore was attacked by India. Pakistan had to give up the attack on the Jammu Road, to save beautiful Lahore. But now in 2020, the Kashmiri people have been imprisoned in lockdown for one year, and something must be done about it. Thalassic India will field a greater number of military formations in front of Lahore and Bahawalpur, to divert Pakistani troops from Kashmir, by threatening the old game, to dismember Pakistan.
As of the last week of August 2020, political events across Iran, Pakistan, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan, Bangladesh and China — all Telluric states — are moving with breathtaking speed. India is stuck voluntarily between the hard Tellluric and Thallasic grinders. Therefore we must be patient and wait for the rain and flood season to end, to see what develops. —License CC, Translations Permitted.
—–Sex ratio of India, March 18, 2020, Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, UN (World Population Prospects 2019)
—-Maxwell, Neville, 1970 Jaico Books, Chapter 3 Forward Policy Pages 171-259. See this site to Download an e-book edition.
—-Brooks, Lt.Gen. T.B.Henderson, Bhagat, Brig.P, 1993, Report on India’s defeat by China in Oct-Nov 1962 War. (Leaked Version)
—– Force Magazine YouTube Channel Editor Pravin Sawhney
The writer is a former Sub-Editor and Staff Reporter from Dawn newspaper, Pakistan. He lives in Australia.