In a political talk show appearance on RT Arabic earlier this month, Iranian political analyst Amir al-Moussawi commented on Iran’s stance towards the US army’s withdrawal from neighboring Afghanistan, and concerns surrounding the potential threat posed by the Taliban towards Kabul and the wider region.
Al-Moussawi is the director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Tehran.
Source: RT Arabic (YouTube) Date: July 9, 2021
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Mr. Amir, regarding the plans being prepared by Iran, regardless of its deterrence capabilities against any threat, and you pointed out that the Fatemiyoun are present as a force that can oppose any threat. But what about Iran’s ability to protect Afghanistan from falling into a whirlpool of chaos? Can Iran use its cultural or religious common ground with Afghanistan, or other common ground, to prevent it from entering the tunnel of a civil war?
Amir Al-Moussawi, Director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies:
I believe that the American project will fail in Afghanistan. They’re after strife, they’re looking to damage Iranian, Russian and Chinese national security, even India, and maybe Pakistan as well. This is why you have good communication today between these parties. Yesterday, the Indian Foreign Minister arrived in Tehran to conduct important negotiations; I believe there is good communication between Mr. Zarif and Mr. Lavrov, the same goes with the Pakistanis and the Chinese as well.
I believe that there is a strong, resilient front in the region today, regionally speaking. As for the domestic scene, I don’t believe that the Taliban are as strong as they used to be. The Afghan people felt a type of freedom after the fall of the Taliban, and cannot withstand a stringent rule as that of the Taliban’s in the country (once again). There are also very strong forces, as you’ve said, in western Afghanistan.
So the Taliban must come to an agreement and form a national unity government, and Iran will push matters in that direction and encourage different parties to come to an understanding. Because I believe that no one will accept, regionally speaking at the very least…the US may be out to constantly create strife in the region because it has criminal objectives against China, against Iran, against Russia. I believe that the region is now in agreement, and the situation inside Afghanistan will not allow the Taliban to spread further.
Every side will accept its own share, its own reality, and a national unity government will be formed. This is what was agreed upon in Tehran. Iranian diplomacy will encourage this, and I believe that the government of President Rouhani will hand this matter over to Sayyed Raisi, who has formed an important and special committee tasked with Afghan affairs.
Of course we know very well that General Qa’ani, the leader of (IRGC’s) Quds Force, was specialized in Afghan matters during the days of Hajj Qassem, and so he is also present, and is helping bring together different sides in Afghanistan, not to mention the regional support (that exists).
I believe that everything will be under control, and will not devolve into a civil war, because things aren’t as the Americans see them, and even the Taliban can’t expand beyond their size.
It has been about 20 yrs 4 American empire in Afghanistan, I can not remember how long ago the Soviet Union was there (let’s call it 20 yrs-I could b wrong- but not my point)
All that time not one interview in U.S. (I assume the in entire Western world- if my luck holds) representing the Taliban?
My question is…Why?
The answer should b troubling everyone right about not… finding one interview may not cut it in this age of prefabricated fake news… since we in the West (U.S. ) have made it our business to stick our nose in their business 4 so so so long , I guess there should b 100’s of Taliban interviews by now , right?
But not one of any substance…
What kind of pin ball game, video game life do we really think we r liv’n in?
No consequences ? Really? R we so sure ?
Inactions do not have consequences – really? ? ?
In what universe is that true? Ask Urself this question in ernest.
If everyone just eats their dinner n goes 2 sleep every night, think’n they do not have 2 answer 4 this-guess again?
It seems to me that China and Russia will ‘spearhead’ the current political foam
by quickly assembling the regional piece conference, like they did in Astana. They should certainly invite USA to participate, on equal level, with Pakistan, India, Iran, and maybe even smaller countries, like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Taliban and the current Afg. gov. included too. No Turkey, UK or EU. That will deprive main deep state operators to revive large scale drug and other illegal operations and firmly replace it with food, mining , construction and other key economic activities essential to Afg. people recovery. So I hope.
@Spiral: “They should certainly invite USA to participate on equal level with Pakistan”
Why invite a country halfway across the world on equal level with a neighbour? Especially such a crass and uncouth country which makes nothing but trouble wherever it goes.
In total agreemnt, the US has uneqivovically earned the right to be completely ostracized and excluded from any and all peace deals, international accords treaties etc. Along with their perfidious allies/vassals, their signature or bond is as valuable and useful as their toilet paper currency.
USA is still a player in this field, although badly wounded. If it rejects invitation it forfeits all rights to say anything in Afg. future development, loses legitimacy , credibility and opens itself to a criminal court etc etc.
By accepting it, a certainly more complex case, its negotiating position is rather weak and will have to abide by rules it does not like , or reject them, and sign, or refuse to sign, agreements it does not like. A very unpleasant situation.
severely limited as it is in a minority. a certainlyBy inviting USA on equ
Banking Cartel West .. too big to fail failed…
Bankrupting countless pension funds, to war without end, causing medical tyranny & transnational corporations shall not return from the East…
“Let the dead bury the dead,” a Biblical truth…
3 years, 10 years, the time line for the REAL “evildoers” is very sad to consider in our heart of hearts…
This too shall pass> hearts & minds must practice FAITH> DIVINE has the best plan!
I find that the tone of Mr. Amir is not very consensual. But he is speaking in front of RT Arabic’s audience. Maybe he is addressing the Gulf countries. To understand these subtleties, you have to be a local, if I may say so. If he is addressing the Taliban I think there is a problem and he is expressing some wishes towards China and/or Russia. It is really complicated, will the road infrastructure that China promised to build allow a connection to Iran?
The peace issues are in the background and will all of Afghanistan’s neighbors be served?
In the new Eurasian paradigm that is being set up, power will be determined by : scientists, engineers, industry, trade, all guarded by armies organized around missiles/guard dogs. In this new paradigm what is determined now with the Taliban are the communication routes with trade in the background, especially the Afghan mineral resources. It seems to me that the interest of the Taliban and beyond Afghanistan is to balance/extend foreign influences so that none is preeminent. N’est-ce pas là aussi l’intérêt de la Russie?
Very interesting time.
You made some very interesting observations, Iran is appealing to other relevant actors because if you study Iran diplomacy it always tries avoid the tone of winner takes all when dealing with rational actors. However, Iran is also signalling that it has got options of asymmetrical hardpower which it can effectively deploy if reasons failed on the Afghanistan arena.
We are talking about a very strategic neighborhood bordering two major powers and one preeminent regional power who are worried by the infestation of Jihadi Johns into there respective nations, with numerous actors now involved couple with what is at stake and America still lurking around the corner it doesn’t appear like one or two powers can have there say in Afghanistan. So this is not a time for grandstanding but cooperation by all actors involved except the US whose definition of cooperation is for others to accede to her will.
My post assumes that peace will be won with the help and cooperation of all except of course the empire. There will not be a single formal peace treaty but new and multiple links and treaties between the new Afghanistan that is emerging from the ashes of war. I don’t have the knowledge of the converging and diverging interests of the different parties and how they will put them on the table and make them prevail. In the short term, China seems to me to be the preeminent player because of its immense capacity for material investment. The Taliban have strong values – how will they intervene in this context, which is quite focused on material achievements? I have no preconceived ideas about any of the actors, but life in all the countries concerned is often quite harsh, and the needs are immense. The hope that I see is that the power of nuisance of the empire will be minimal. It is a terra incognita in a complex peace process.
Unrelated to Afghanistan, but the US embassy in Baghdad was targeted with two rockets this morning. The missile defense system at the embassy failed to activate. The alarms also failed to activate on time. Afterwards, a US reconnaissance plane flew over Baghdad for an hour, trying to find the source of the attack. Nobody has claimed responsibility for the attack. The attack was conducted using 2 Katyusha rockets.
Also today, three US logistical convoys were struck in Iraq. Two of the attacks occured in Al-Nassiriyah, and the other at Al-Divaniyah.
Attacks against the US appear to be intensifying since the deal between what’s-his-name and Biden regarding US troop withdrawal a few days ago. It seems the IRGC believes the deal is a sham.
And on another note, according to Zionist channel 13, Hamas has issued an ultimatum to the Zionist regime. They are demanding that the Zionist regime,
1. Hand over the Qatari aid money
2. Open up the Gaza border crossings, and
3. Allow the import of construction materials to rebuild Gaza
According to the report, Hamas has given the Zionist regime one week to comply, or face war.
No American president has the balls to admit that the official narrative of 9/11 was total BS. If you remember, that false-flag attack was the pretext, not only for the invasion of Afghanistan, but for the phony “war on terror” that has led to the destruction of nation after nation in the Middle East, all for Israel.
Also, we’ve been bankrupted both financially and morally by these “forever” wars. Truth is, this was all by design, and we can thank Israel for that as well. Netanyahu once bragged that this would happen. “Much of the following scenario was outlined initially in 1990 in a discussion at Fink’s Bar in Jerusalem. At the head of the table was Netanyahu. The group at the table had just stolen 5 American KG 84 cryptographic devices with the help of Canadians serving with the UNTSO on the Golan Heights, giving this Israeli-led cabal real-time access to all US State Department, Naval and NATO communications. This is a transcribed quote taken from an audio recording of Netanyahu at that meeting:” (UK Today)
“If we get caught, they will just replace us with persons of the same cloth. So, it does not matter what you do, America is a golden calf, and we will suck it dry, chop it up, and sell it off piece by piece until there is nothing left but the world’s biggest welfare state that we will create and control. Why? Because it is the will of God and America is big enough to take the hit so we can do it again and again and again. This is what we do to countries that we hate. We destroy them very slowly and make them suffer for refusing to be our slaves.”
Where is Ramin Mazaheri these days? The man is a seriously prolific writer, and it has been a long time since he has published anything here.
It would be good to know if his work is still appearing somewhere, and that he’s still with us.
Lets get real folks, it appears the entire narrative of the unstoppable talibs having taken over 99% of Afghanistan was mostly propaganda. The same people who hyped up Daesh back in 2014, have been constantly repeating the fear mongering propaganda on the talibs. Nobody is worried about the talibs.The 350,000 strong ANA/ Spec Ops/ Paramilitaries/ Police, backed up by US air power are well trained and will easily overpower the estimated only 75,000 or so talibs (Afghan Tolo news cited estimates made by the Afghan ministry of defense/ pentagon), which are mostly Afghan pashtu refugees hastily trained and infiltrated to swell up the Afghan taliban numbers.Tactical withdrawals and securing vital cities/ corridors/ highways and infrastructure is all part of the ANA strategy. Russia/ China/ Iran, for now, are reluctant to touch Afghanistan, unless it becomes necessary. The ANA and the US are quite capable of doing the job. US drones/ jets are picking off Talib patrols on mopeds, scouts and strong points all over the place and the ANA commandos come in for mop up duty to get the stragglers….same ol same ol successful strategy since 2001…..just a different day. It was the same drama we witnessed in the SyRaq with the jihadists coming out in the open with Obama’s pseudo withdrawal back in 2014. The gullible repeatedly fall for Pentagon shenanigans. .
@Ahson: “Tactical withdrawals …” by the “350,000 strong ANA/ Spec Ops/ Paramilitaries/ Police, backed up by US air power”].
Ah, tactical withdrawals! Brought back memories: of a 12 year old Jewish girl, one of the few Jewish survivors in Nazi occupied Poland, devouring newspaper maps of the Wehrmacht’s “tactical withdrawals” and noting, month after month, that the arrows were continually pointing away from the Red Army and the Polish Communist partisans.
PS It is always a strategic mistake to be “backed up by U$ air power”.
@deplorable…….if we see Afghan cities fall, then we’ll buy your narrative. Fair enough?
@Ahson: “if we see Afghan cities fall, then we’ll buy your narrative.”
You mean, if we see Afghan cities rise: Rise from U$ oppression. Fair enough, I see where you’re coming from.
I don’t think you are very familiar with the subject at hand.
There was a little episode a short while back, between the IRGC and the Taliban, that I think could be educational for all.
About 6 months ago, a Taliban faction released a video of one of their leaders, “Mullah Manan Niazi” making a speech to a crowd of Afghan jihadists. The speech was in Persian, and the gist of it was, Mr. Niazi blaming all of Afghanistan’s problems on Iranian meddling (not once did he mention the US occupation), and then threatening to kill thousands in Tehran and Mashad. He raged and ranted about evil Iranians and their malignant influence for a good 10-15 minutes, and in the end invited the people of Iranian Sistan and Balochistan to revolt and join their cause in killing Iranians.
https://afghanistan.asia-news.com/en_GB/articles/cnmi_st/features/2021/05/26/feature-02 — “The Iranian regime and the Taliban worked together to kill Mullah Manan Niazi, say observers, as he opposed the Quetta Shura faction and the Iran-backed Fatemiyoun Division.”
https://www.thereference-paris.com/16169 — “Mullah Abdul Manan Niazi dead: Taliban strongman and Iran’s archenemy”
“He repeatedly accused Iran of interfering in Afghanistan, considering Tehran to be a source of strife and the engine of conflict in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
“The great wars it sees are due to strife in Iran. The Iranian government has established the Fatemiyoun Brigade, an Afghan Shiite militia from the Hazara, and now wants to start a civil and religious war in Afghanistan. I tell them this is a wrong idea. They must withdraw their militias from Afghanistan, otherwise we will destroy them all,” he said.
Niazi also believed that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are using Fatemiyoun fighters to threaten Afghanistan, adding that “the Fatemiyoun have no place inside Afghanistan. But who is nurturing and feeding them? They are fed by the Afghan government. Many ministers in Kabul today encourage the Fatemiyoun.””
What I can add here, that you won’t read anywhere else, is that this fat piece of garbage was taken out by the Saberin Commando Unit of the IRGC.
So, to clarify:
1. The Taliban continues to exist only by the grace of the IRGC
2. If anyone in the Taliban steps out of line, they will be eliminated by the IRGC
3. If the IRGC deems it necessary to have a Shiite militia in Afghanistan to protect the Shia minorities there, the Taliban militant leaders must accept this or die, and the Afghan government officials must accept this or be ousted from their position
4. When the IRGC needs cooperation from the Taliban to kill one of the Taliban’s own leaders, the Taliban must acquiesce, or, you guessed it — die.
5. The IRGC wishes for peace and stability in Afghanistan. Anyone who opposes this, you guessed it again — will die.
6. The US Army left Afghanistan, because, they didn’t want to die, in a country that is politically and militarily so completely under Iran’s thumb, that it makes Syria look like an independent power.
7. Iran achieved its total domination of Afghanistan, while the US was present there with thousands of combat forces. Iran played the US puppet government against the Taliban, and the Taliban against the US Army, and ended up owning the whole show.
8. A similar scenario is unfolding in Iraq.
@ Anonymous, I agree with your claim that Manan Niazi was taken out by the Saberin led by Gen Esmael Ghani’s operatives. And I do also agree that Iran has substantial influence not quite on the talibs, but on the Afghan gubment. Iran does facilitate Indian involvement in Afghanistan and it has its own strategic reasons for doing so. What I disagree with you on is that you over estimate the Shia population in Afghanistan. Hazara and some other Shia ethnicities only constitute 10% of less of the total Afghan population. Hazara can be a local militia along with their Hezb Wahdat party supplanted by Fatemyoun, if required, but that still leaves the largely 90% of other Sunni Afghans who are rather wahabbi in their indoctrination, thereby limiting Iranian influence on them. The other misunderstanding you have is that the US has left Afghanistan…….I totally disagree. They’ve been bombing the talibs round the clock, and have degraded them substantially, just in the last week. The US idea of waging war has evolved. Managing 75k talibs with ANA commandos directed by Western Spec Ops teams with continuous drone strikes/ CIA satellite coverage is a successful and time tested strategy……I don’t see the Afghan gubment collapsing. And I don’t see Iran viewing a strongly nationalistic Afghan gubment, waving the Persian ethnic card being on Iran’s wrong side either. Your point number 5 corroborates this. And I certainly do not see Iran disturbing this fairly amicable arrangement between the US/ India/ Afghan gubments and unnecessarily get involved in Afghanistan to spend its meager resources, specially when its all within Iranian interests. I also do not see China getting involved in the Afghan conundrum with its BRI, now that we’ve seen poor results in the neighboring CPEC project bringing next to no benefits for Pakistan, hence the Iran/ China deal to this day remains an MOU, seven years since its sign off. And to cap off, I don’t see the US leaving Iraq nor Syria anytime soon either. It’s all over the news…….It’s a wait and see scenario now.
You make it seem like the US just started conducting airstrikes against the Taliban yesterday. As if they haven’t been doing it all along — as if the US Army is even capable of anything more than airstrikes.
Look up “الاعلام الحربی” on YouTube, to see what Yemeni ground forces are doing, while the US-UK-Saudis hopelessly conduct their totally irrelevant airstrikes.
The US is bankrupt. They can’t afford these wars anymore. And they aren’t even capable of putting up a fight anyway.
To win a conventional war very quickly China’ vast army only has to sweep through Afghanistan and Iran (with those countries permission) and take control of the middle eastern oil producers.
It’s pretty clear that the US would use nuclear weapons on a vast scale to try and stop this. That’s probably why they withdrew their troops from the area.
China is not going to sweep through Afghanistan with soldiers and take over the middle east, that is an absurd idea and not how the Chinese do things.
I should clarify. I don’t think China will be the instigator of a war but if one starts sweeping into the Middle East and turning off the oil to her enemies would be the quickest way for China to win – a conventional war.
The US has probably belatedly realized that if a ww started it would have a logistic nightmare supplying all its bases. It has probably psychopathically decided to use ‘theater’ nuclear weapons in that area of the world, then spin some story to make out the radiation came from the other side.
But perhaps this is even more absurd?
@MM, its great to see you lowering China to the level of takfiri Daesh…….lol…..You do realize that the Chinese are pacifists? and submissive by nature? Would love to do business, but loathe war? and will do anything imaginable for hard currency? and to be on the good side of the west and restore trade to its full capacity? Do you agree?
Yes Ahson I do agree. The Chinese have, relatively speaking, not tried to expand their empire for 4000 years. However if they were pushed into a world war don’t you think they would try to win in the quickest and most effective way?
I did not mean to imply the Chinese were predatory- my first post said “with those countries permission”.
I’m fact I think the Chinese do want to help Afghanistan and Iran build good infrastructure for all countries benefit. I also believe Iraq may be added to this list later.Even if they followed this strategy they would not try to be an occupying force but a liberating force. As you say they are more interested in trade and business.
The point of concern is how “the full spectrum dominance empire” views this. I’m sure they view it as a threat and don’t want it to happen. They removed their troops, so they must have planned a strategy (if that is what it can be called) to meet the possibility of China invading (or liberating (people’s liberation army))the oil producing countries. Unfortunately, I think that psychopathic strategy is nuclear, but if you can persuade me otherwise I would be very happy.
@MM……take a trip to Pakistan and see the condition of that country, 8 years into the magic of the BRI. 12 hour blackouts in 40 degC heat, no water, no security, no jobs, no food and a bankrupt economy. Of course this is not China’s fault, since China is not the Pakistan gubment…….but had China cracked the whip and managed it properly, the BRI might have got better press. The failure of CPEC goes right back to China’s ‘hands off’ non interventionist business like approach. Evidently they don’t have any experience managing projects/ business ventures in third world corrupt countries. And if its been this bad in Pakistan, imagine what awaits them in tribal/ warlord run Afghanistan. I can’t see China doing anything other than issuing statements and writing up hollow MOU’s.
Unrelated to Afghanistan, but a little episode seems to be developing with Iran-Syria-Israel-Lebanon.
Yesterday, Israel accused Iran of blowing up an oil tanker belonging to the Zionist state.
Meanwhile, two Iranian oil tankers are headed for Lebanon.
And now, Syria has claimed responsibility for the attack on the Israeli tanker, which the Syrians consider to be retaliation for Israeli attacks on Syria-bound tankers.
What are the Israelis going to do? Cry themselves to sleep?
More details on the oil tanker situation.
The tanker belonged to an Israeli company called Zodiac.
It turned off its transponder off the coast of Tanzania, and “invisibly” made its way north.
The tanker was at the Omani island of Masirah, when it was struck by a heavily armed combat drone. The ship’s captain and one sailor were killed, a Romanian and a British national, apparently.
There are reports that the Israeli tanker has been completely sunk.
The tanker was headed for the Persian Gulf, where Iran has made clear: no Zionists will be allowed entry.
Now, right now as we speak, two Iranian oil tankers filled with gasoline are in the Southern Mediterranean, they passed through Suez last night, and they are making their way to Lebanon.
Nasrallah requested the gasoline, and Iran has answered the call. The Lebanese state is opposed, and prefers the people of Lebanon to starve and die. Nasrallah has said to the Lebanese state officials: the fuel ships are going to dock, I want to see you try and stop them.
Now, we are coming to the moment of truth, for Israel. Iran has just annihilated one of their oil tankers (although Syria has officially claimed responsibility) and not one, but two Iranian oil tankers are passing by the Israeli coast.
Will Israel target them? Or will they do nothing like the US and the 5-6 tankers that made it to Venezuela?
If Israel attacks the tankers, will Hamas retaliate? Very conveniently, this little episode is coinciding with Hamas’ ultimatum deadline to Israel. Or will Iran retaliate directly?
There are sources within the IRGC who believe that this year (1400/2021-22) will see direct confrontation between Iran and the Zionist regime.