Translated from the Russian by Robin
In an interview with the radio station Russia Today, Rostislav Ishchenko, President of the Center for Systematic Analysis and Forecasting, talks about who is trying to draw Russia into a military conflict, and why, Crimea’s role in the situation, and the splitting of the Ukraine into separate territories.
In one of your articles, you wrote that the Ukraine was in all likelihood considering some sort of attack on Crimea. What exactly did you mean?
First, I don’t think the Ukraine or even the powers that be in Kiev want to attack Crimea. I believe that even the orders to shoot that [Oleksander] Turchynov allegedly gave the military in February 2014 were a PR move. It’s doubtful whether he gave such orders at that time. And, if he had given them, of the 20,000 soldiers who were in Crimea at that time, someone would have fulfilled them.
Second, as for an attack on Crimea by the Ukraine, I have already said and I’ll repeat it: from my point of view, it’s one of the last ways to start a war with Russia. It’s perfectly clear that, from February to March of last year, they began trying to draw Russia into direct combat in the Ukraine. And it’s clear that the idea came not from Kiev but from Washington.
After the failed attempts to get Russia to send troops to southeast Ukraine in March, April, May, and August, as well as in January of this year, the only more or less justified chance, from the point of view of international law, to instigate a Ukrainian-Russian war is to attempt to play the return-of-Crimea card. And it has been important from the very beginning to ensure that the Ukraine is not seen as the aggressor.
Is the goal of drawing Russia into military operations still on the agenda?
Yes. Now it’s much more difficult to achieve because all the major forces of the Ukrainian army are tied up in the southeast, so Kiev can’t mount an offensive on the isthmus [connecting Crimea to the mainland]. Last summer, they could have. I think the danger of that was quite high. But then another decision was made: the United States tried once again to draw Russia into war, and active military operations began in the southeast. Donetsk and Luhansk were practically under siege. At that point, the goal really was almost achieved, because in that situation Russia could not let the DPR and the LPR be crushed, and if it had not managed to reverse the course of events, troops would have gone to Crimea.
Who benefits from dragging Russia into the war? After all, it’s dangerous for Europe to have fighting right on its doorstep.
The idea of a coup d’état and the most negative unfolding of events, namely a military scenario, clearly does not come from the European politicians. They had no objection to gaining economic control over the Ukraine, which would allow them to pass freely through the Ukrainian market to the Russian and CIS markets. But they had no interest whatsoever in getting into a political and military confrontation with Russia.
On the other hand, the United States, which was clearly not thrilled with the developing economic cooperation between Russia and Europe – cooperation with such great potential that the United States would eventually be crowded out in Europe, first economically and then politically – had a vested interest in having Europe and Russia clash somewhere.
It could not have happened in Poland or Lithuania or even in Belarus – it was possible only in the Ukraine, thanks to the thoroughly inept policies of [Victor] Yanukovych and his government, which tried to continue [Leonid] Kuchma’s outdated “multivector” policy of being friends with, and milking, everyone. This policy created conditions for the emergence of conflicting interests in the EU, Russia and the Ukraine, and they were above all economic.
In other words, European politicians also were not inactive?
European politicians have played a most active role in the situation in the Ukraine: they visited, supported, guaranteed, signed agreements, and organized negotiations. Merkel believed that [Wladimir] Klitschko was guaranteed to be the next president of the Ukraine. But on February 21 the Europeans were cut out. And the very next day the United States took control of the situation in the Ukraine. And all further actions took place on orders from Washington, because any government in Kiev, even the most incompetent, would have clearly understood that what was needed most of all was to stabilize the situation, even if concessions had to be made in Crimea and the southeast. It was the wrong time for the Ukraine to take aggressive action; it was not strong enough, and the government in Kiev was not consolidated, but the Ukraine was literally [sic] being pushed toward a confrontation with Russia.
They also tried to provoke Russia. I’ll give you a simple example: at the beginning of March, when Crimea was not even legally part of Russia, Putin said that Russia would not tolerate terror against the population in the southeast. Immediately units of the Ukrainian army started moving toward the southeast. Two months into the process they still weren’t fully assembled, but nevertheless Kiev said it was starting to conduct antiterrorist operations there. Then came the events in Odessa: brazenly, with television cameras rolling, they killed dozens of people. Then there was firing into Russian territory. Somehow, today we don’t see any shells from Ukrainian territory coming into Russia, but in June and July they were arriving in droves. It’s unlikely the Ukrainian gunners didn’t learn how to shoot until August.
If the shells were reaching Russian territory, someone needed it to happen. If aircraft were violating the airspace of the Russian Federation, someone needed that too. They were making every effort to pull the Russian Federation into the war.
How will the U.S. benefit if Russia is drawn into a military conflict?
How quickly Russian troops might occupy Kiev or even Lvov was of no concern whatsoever to the United States. The main thing was to show that Russia had invaded a sovereign state. Europe would not have been able to remain silent, and in that case the rhetoric and sanctions would have been broader and deeper than now. This would have led to a direct confrontation, severing Europe from Russia for a long time. In addition, it would have caused concern among Russia’s allies in the customs union and the recently created Eurasian Economic Union.
Quite naturally other capitals would start to worry: if you can go into the Ukraine, then why not go into Kazakhstan and Belarus too? Even now, when efforts to propel Europe into a direct confrontation with Russia have failed and are unlikely to succeed, the U.S. is interested in seeing Russian troops in the Ukraine, because they cannot hold onto the Ukraine, and it’s clear that the Kiev government will fall. The longer the government lasts in Kiev, the more money and resources, including political, diplomatic, and economic resources, the U.S. will inevitably lose in propping it up. No one wants to waste resources on what is basically a lost cause. If Russia takes control of the Ukraine, then it will become Russia’s responsibility, politically, economically and financially.
Until then it’s the responsibility of the United States. And each successive move by the Kiev regime, each escalation of the terror is slowly but surely eroding the position of the United States, because sooner or later it will be necessary to admit that they have organized and supported a Nazi regime. And people are talking about this openly in Europe. I think that, by December, the United States realized there would be no direct invasion; anything is possible except a direct invasion.
What, in your opinion, awaits the Ukraine? What is the possible outcome of the situation?
Most likely, there will be another coup in Kiev. It boils down to one simple thing: it’s necessary to remove the last, quasi-legitimate President, [Petro] Poroshenko, who is keeping the various groups from going at one another’s throats. It’s clear that Poroshenko will be overthrown by openly Nazi battalions, and the next government will be even more rigid, resulting in a regime of outright terror.
Then the powers that be won’t be able to maintain complete control over their territory. They will begin to gradually splinter into “principalities,” each with its own troops, and these principalities will engage in conflict with one another. This will destroy what remains of the industrial capacity and will increase the number of refugees flooding into the Russian Federation and the EU, as well as the loss of life, because of the density of the population and the time it will take to disarm these gangs. The question then arises: how do you ensure this “Somalia” doesn’t spread over the borders? It will be primarily Russia’s problem because Europe doesn’t have the military resources.
Is there a way out of this situation? How can order be restored and the cities made secure, if at all possible?
The war will end sooner or later – most likely sooner rather than later, simply because the Ukraine’s economic capacity will not allow it to wage war for long, and its neighbors are not interested in having an endless “Somalia” going on in the Ukraine. Russia’s actions over the past year show that it’s not fighting for Crimea or the Donbass; it’s fighting for all of the Ukraine. I very much doubt whether the Ukraine, even with substantial outside support, will last as an independent state for the next five or 10 years.
It will have to be rebuilt, starting from zero. It would be nonsensical for Russia to create a continually hostile state on its borders. The problem is not whether it is necessary to integrate the Ukraine into the territory of the Russian Federation, but how to do so from the standpoint of international law. It all comes back to the confrontation between the Russian Federation and the United States, because if Russia loses, it will be Russia that is divided. But since I’m sure that the U.S. will lose, or even that it has already lost, it’s just a matter of time and formalities; the framework of international law will change. And within this new framework will be decided the matter of what should be done with the Ukrainian territories and what their legal status will be. The one that rebuilds them will decide their fate and questions of governance, and that will be Russia.
I agree with all the points he has presented. He’s articulating what I have felt from the beginning of this fiasco.
Ukraine was a tar baby and the country that was most likely to get stuck with the tar baby was Russia. This was the bait that Putin declined to take. The longer he manages this successfully (in my view), the more the tar baby becomes the American (and EU members such as Germany, Poland, Lithuania, etc.) problem.
The problem on the ground in Ukraine was that as I mentioned once before was that the will of the population could not be Astroturfed by either side. They need to make decisions for themselves and it’s about damn well time. They have now been led to the edge of the abyss and have had their hard look.
Fairy tales from their own corrupt and venal leaders have been shown for the bullshit they are. Complete and utter bullshit fairy tales from the US and the EU are being shown for the smelly manure that it truly is. There ain’t no free lunch PERIOD.
Ukraine is going to fragment. I don’t see any way around it. The signs are already there.
“… Ukraine is going to fragment. I don’t see any way around it. The signs are already there. …”
Of course it will. If not exactly in thirty years, then perhaps in fifty, sixty, who knows. Indeed, such is the destiny of every single country sooner or later – and there is no way around it. Just look at the history of Europe for instance, and the map from hundred years ago of even its borders, not to speak of its political regimes, is utterly unrecognizable today… Of course, me and you won’t be around to enjoy it, but it is surely coming. As for the signs, of course that every demise could be traced back to its seeds, but those are plainly visible to everyone only afterwards, while beforehand only to the visionary few (such as Mr. Ishchenko, Mr. Starikov…)
It’s not going to take 30 years………… It’s likely going to take less than 30 months and perhaps even as little as 30 weeks. And in my view that may be a blessing.
“… It’s not going to take 30 years………… …”
OK, you’re absolutely correct, not 30, much more like 130. After all, Byzantine empire lasted some 1123 years – while it was “falling apart” all along, right? Isn’t that what astute Mr. Putin wants & diligently labors for? Which in turn Messrs Ishchenko and Starikov and alike toadies are so nicely and logically justifying to all us puppies? (Hmm … requisitely check http://www.thefreedictionary.com/sarcasm .)
I see no reason to wait so long, Ukraine collapses by itself very soon (1-3 years), it can already for years be called a black hole of Europe.
And then as correctly depicted in the article, Russia goes and takes almost the whole land by incorporation into Russian Federation. OK, except the Galitzia region, nobody wants the scum, and probably Poland will satisfy its appetite for Lvov. But then I expect Gdansk to be returned to Germany….
The US warmongers will just focus on the Kaukazus region and play their luck there with some sponsored IS Qalifate.
Never mind the status of Ukraine, I’m anxious to see the status of the “United States” once Russia triumphs.
The US will still be the Hegemon.
Ukraine is big for Russia. Not so big for the Hegemon.
And loss doesn’t kill the Hegemon. There’s many other states to destroy.
So, Mats, ‘the hegemon’ isn’t heading right now into its own USSR-in-1989-moment, then?
Take a long thoughtful look at the archive at Dmitry Orlov’s ‘Club Orlov’ blog – to mention just one example. There are plenty of other equally perceptive and well-informed sources of insight, too.
The US is already showing unmistakable, not to say blatant, signs of its advanced progress towards systemic collapse, just like what happened to the USSR, only quarter of a century later, when things generally in a world in crisis have got that much worse, and when the US is very much worse prepared for collapse than the USSR happened to be – pretty well by chance, as Dmitry describes in detail in his essays as an eye-witness.
Could you explain Mats, perhaps, what’s going to save the Amerikan empire from this inexorable, geophysical process? Or even the continental United – oh really? – States?
Hegemon? The US was never there, except in the crazed dreams of the PNACers and all the other delusional mediocrities amongst the massed DC Beltway Bozos; and now it’s chances of ever getting there are absolute zero. Say hello to the new Eurasian – well, maybe not century, but certainly for the next decade or so.
After that, though, the world’s Synergising Global Crises mean that all bets are off. Climate shift alone, quite apart from all the other simultaneous crises, changes everything, beyond any possibility of realistic prediction.
Rostislav Ishchenko is so well connected… His analysis is concise and pertinent. I love his conclusion and I agree with him that the US has already lost this war. Ukraine, after all, may turn-out to be Obama’s Waterloo.
The problem is the ending of this charade and the transition to the new multipolar world. Is it going to be peaceful or will it end-up with a bang? There are so many variables (internal and external) that work against the US that anything could trigger a devastating domino effect. Their social problems for example, their economy, their financial situation, the weakening of the US$, the environmental problems such as droughts and their effects on the population and the agriculture, the massive destruction of the marine life on the Pacific coast, the long-term health effects of GMO, the destruction of the environment by fracking… The situation looks like a piston in a diesel engine at the end of its run.
The USA is pushing and pushing and pushing: but at some point it will have to run forward or back down. My sense is that NATO will stop short of attacking Russia and will be the first domino to fall. This criminal organization has exceeded its shelf life for too long.
As soon as the wind clearly changes direction in Europe, the rebuilding process will accelerate.
Weakening of the dollar?
The dollar has been surging against all other currencies in the last five months.
Please check your facts before posting.
Actually, I personally disagree with the above analysis and commentators such as Orlov and al.
The U.S. has been gaining strength for months now and it is Russia that is suffering economically.
It would be nice to have an objective view of reality once in a while.
And now let Ann and others call me a troll for speaking the truth. That will certainly help find solutions.
Charette, I called you a troll…sorry….I just didn’t like all the BS about Putin’s death..and it wasn’t only you. .its so obviously not true and so its frustrating….
Why spend time analyzing lies.
Facts are obvious, OK. And who makes the US stocks prices rise? The same puppetmasters who have arranged the rating agencies to call Russian bonds a junk…
I only wish a black revolution, not exactly a color one to happen in the USA.
But as I see they are quite good at supressing own citizens.
So there has to come the time of a war on American soil. That will make them to bring back their troops, and nicely destroyed. Let them enjoy the pill of war, enough of exporting all the US aggressive mess all around the world.
The US economy is in shambles,a deindustrialized farce!! The dollar is rising because of the end of QE and the impending rate hike concerns.A strong currency does not equal a strong country when the underlying infrastructure is not there.Central banks have destroyed the global economy.It is only a matter of time till a total collapse.
“Ukraine, after all, may turn-out to be Obama’s Waterloo.”
For Russia Ukraine may be a big deal but for US it’s a tool with which to whack Russia. It’s a bit humiliating for Russia to have its own seat of civilization turned against it – to have a foreign power come up and stir up a civil war and fratricide. How Russia is a winner in any of this beggars belief – the only question is how much Russia loses. Will Ukraine become a failed state sucking up Russian resources and brining instability for decades?
And as to Waterloo, US is doing this destabilization on the cheap. They’ve spent a few billions – $5 billion to get to this point and maybe $1-2 billion since. How much has it cost Russia? Saving Crimea was a saving move but again only a saving move, the fact that Russia allowed the coup to succeed shows Russia’s weakness and Russia has been on the defensive ever since.
The fact that the West can so demonize Russia for interfering in its former territory filled with ethnic Russians who are being bombed and shelled goes a long way to show who is the boss.
Yeah, Ukraine may not join EU – but EU really doesn’t want Ukraine. They wanted a vassal state with some captured markets and some good farmland and hookers but aside from that Europeans don’t give a damn about Ukraine. That really makes the whole thing so much more humiliating for Russia – they are having to fight hard to keep what EU considers trash.
So, who’s calling the shots in the so called ‘United States’? Who actually gives the orders to execute an operation? State Dept has had their tentacles in the Ukraine for 20 years through numerous NGOs, but under who’s direction. After all there have been several admin changes in the US over that period; Nuland and Jarret are temporary players. Blaming Obama doesn’t help nor expalin much, another Bush or Clinton wont effect a change in policy. The MIC stands to benefit but it doesn’t make command decisions (at least directly).
The issue of Crimea has been a long standing one in relations between US/Russia/USSR/Russia for over a hundred years. I recently came arcross this gem which goes a long way in filling in the hisorical gaps, I sense that the FSB is quietly releasing aarchival info; sorry for this repost but I do feel this documet to be important to today’s activities.
How Stalin played the Americans with the “Crimean California” project
This is a wonderful article, I agree. I like your thought that FSB is releasing archive material – that adds a frisson to the article. I looked for, but could no longer find on YouTube, that short video clip from Sheikh Imran Hosein where he says that losing Crimea was the first significant defeat for Zionism since its beginning.
An independent Jewish state of Crimea? Fascinating history – the Zionist eye has long been turned in this direction. And at the last minute, Stalin stopped it, and the parasite turned to Palestine.
Here’s another little gem that popped up, along the same lines:
Сто лет назад Россия и Китай создали ФРС США
A chapter from machine translation:
‘How to write “Arguments of the Week”, now more than a hundred years, Russia leads an undeclared war. War against the global financial clans. For the complete and final victory against us using all methods: bribery, blackmail, murder. Few people know, for example, that the US Federal Reserve in fact – a product of the notorious financial Rothschilds. And it is based, as it turned out, the Russian gold. ‘
For myself this fills in some links to material provided by Eustace Mullins and others, this time from the Russian perspective.
Sorry but that’s completely wrong. The FED is a product of the US Congress and fully belongs to it, the “Rothschild” story is just a bogus diversion and has zero base in reality. The FED is the third central bank in the US and installed by the government to *controll* the banking system.
Also the socialist Russia was actually financed by these very circles and definitely never “fought” against any of it.
That book is simply a bunch of crap by some half-informed right winger.
Great, now we have trolls warning the forum about themselves… just crazy.
Read that link I posted and check his sources too – all public and available.
A good read regarding the FED etc.:
A good read indeed. Dispelled a foggy belief I had contracted that the Fed Bank System was privately owned. It is de facto privately controlled (big Bank lobbies, working for the rich), but not privately owned. Thanks, T2015.
Boy, is there anybody commenting on this blog who is not a professional ?
This makes sense.
But how would the Monsanto/GMO planning fit in with provoking Russia into occupying the Ukraine? I don’t doubt the intent was to have Russia intervene and then use that fact to scare everyone away from Russia; I just don’t understand how you can have business development plans in parallel.
Its a case of different options.An A or B plan.The US strategy is usually a game of options.Such as “if this works,we do this.If this works we do that”.Ideally from the US side,they get Ukraine.And its a Russophobic base against Russia (with Monsanto getting its slice).Second best,Russia invades and Europe turns away from Russia and the US is secure as Europe’s master in a new Cold War.Third best is Ukraine becomes neutral,but still with US influence.In number three Monsanto still is there.Worst option for the US is number four,the fall of the junta.And the fascists driven out.US influence is then probably gone forever.and Monsanto goes with them.Russia needs option four,and could barely live with option three.May have to settle for option two,if they must.Option one,is not on Russia’s agenda to consider,I believe/hope.
Thanks, uncle Bob. These alternative plans also make sense. However, remember they were aiming for violence and confrontation from the onset. The language law proposal, about the first thing they did after the coup. Maybe just poor execution, confused by their own complex planning, or due to nationalist puppets not being in the loop of the puppeteer’s planning.
The fracking is gone. The oil price war killed that business even in the USA, and they’ve been finding the geology is unsuitable around Ukraine anyway (and Poland and Moldova and Romania).
Monsanto the people will rebel against (and now the people have arms). It is anyway an expensive business, driven with loans, which nobody will want to invest while there is still instability.
A lot of the country will not be physically destroyed under any scenario. If they start with everyone growing their own food, they’ll survive even with industries still struggling.Then they can go back to co-operatives for the large scale farming, and in 2 years start exporting top quality organic grains for good prices.
If they nationalise all the coal mines, they can sell it more cheaply, and have all the power stations running full capacity and sell electricity too. Industry can work on upgrading the power stations, for a start.
Dear The Saker,
The last paragraph is interesting.
I have never had the feeling Russia wants to intergarte Ukraine back into the RF. Some parts of Ukraine would not fit in esp. the West and with the incesant Russophobia being pushed by US I very much doubt all of the Ukraine would want to. The old Russian regions would, but I don’t think it is so straight forward as the author thinks.
I like your thought here Veritas. I agree it’s not so obvious how things might proceed.
I sometimes think that it’s as if there are some very dangerous things that could be done to challenge the forces that think they own this world, and almost secondarily to stand off the US forever. An unruly Ukraine, almost but not quite outlaw, with a strong Novorossia in the mix, lots of weapons and desperate people, and a killing field for any nation or corporation foolish enough to enter – such a place could fight bankers, Zionists, criminals and warmongers, and struggle through to a better world. Ukraine could create its own state bank, repudiate all ties with the corrupt west, kill or restrain its oligarchs, and work with NAF and from the example of Novorossia to create a socialist nation immune from the depredations of global bankers.
From chaos sometimes the ordinary people can get the upper hand, especially with help from a decent military. Ukraine could take the Cuba path. And Ukraine could get away with such rebellion against the old world order better than Russia, with all its connections to the current world, could.
Maybe I dream. It’s just one scenario out of many. But it would be consistent with Russia’s masterful use of asymmetric warfare, to rebuild Ukraine by having it do the work, and to conquer the old world by so doing.
have never had the feeling Russia wants to intergarte Ukraine back into the RF.
The part of Ukraine with economic and culutral value to Russia is the part east of the line Zhitomir-Vinnitsiya.
Some parts of Ukraine would not fit in esp. the West
It should be firmly kept in mind that in the northwest, it only spent a little over 100 over the past 700 years in union with Moscow, and in the southwest, it spent less than 50 years over the past 700 in union with Moscow. This area should really just be let go and let it go its own way, which is back to Austrian and Polish and Hungarian influence and friendship.
Everyone would be much happier if that area could develop its own state institutions, Latinize its alphabet, join the EU and let the rest of the Ukraine to be a larger Belarus. Of course this would require the Western Ukrainians to give up their fantasies of control over and cltural dominance of Kiev and Odessa, which is what this conflict is really about.
and with the incesant Russophobia being pushed by US I very much doubt all of the Ukraine would want to. The old Russian regions would, but I don’t think it is so straight forward as the author thinks.
Its not. It requires the country to come to a realization of what is for its own good, what it is as a country, who they are as a people.
Unfortunately, it is now quite apparent that the west and center of the country has been under significant Russophobic and Nationalist/Nazi-like propaganda not only in Austrian times, but also during the Soviet period, when one would have expected de-Nazification to have occurred. Quite the opposite – it is now clear that much of the Ukrainian Soviet apparatus was acting, consciously or not, as Nazi-like agents spreading the Nazi baccillus through Ukrainian language policy. The nationalities policy of the Bolsheviks (who were German agents financed by the German High Command) fully created the Ukr and took what had been a minor religious division (allegiance to Rome vs. Moscow without any cultural distinction) and turned it into an ethno-cultural-linguistic conflict with Crusdaer religious undertones (as was also done in Croatia/Bosnia, where Dalmatians, Croats, Serbs, Muslims, and Uniates were reshuffled into new allegiances and set at each other’s throats twice). This is the only way to explain the “Great Ukr” fantasies of people like Lyashko and Yarosh from Central Ukraine who dream of invading Russia and seeing a Ukraine stretch east through Kursk and Rostov to Astrakhan so as to border Kazakhstan, the Caspian and the Caucusus. Anyone with the least historic literacy would know that for a person from central Ukraine the real way to be a “Great Ukr” is to be a real Cossack, and the way to be a a real Cossack is to be a Russian, in Russia, and serving Russia. The “Great Ukr” fantasy of a vast and powerful state is the Russian reality.
This Ukraine fantasy was largely a product of Hapsburg and Polish manipulation.It was picked up and advanced by the Bolsheviks because of their anti Russian and anti imperial positions, but also it was seen as a way to inoculate the country from further Western meddling.Remember the first Ukrainian state was a post revolutionary project supported by the German high command. By embracing “Ukrainianism” they sought to de-fang the monster…but no one saw the last 20 years coming….
You mean in Austro-Hungarian times, not Austrian times.
Seems very analytical and probable. The US is an embarrassment.
No Ceasefire Reached in Eastern Ukraine – Donetsk Deputy Militia Commander
De-facto, no true ceasefire has ever been reached in eastern Ukraine, a deputy commander of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic’s militia said Monday.
Positions held by the DPR self-defense forces came under fire 32 times in the past 24 hours, Eduard Basurin said. Three militia members were killed and three injured as a result.
Meanwhile, ISIL committed an oopsy and didn’t realise they had kidnapped nationals of an allied state, so upon being informed of this, released them.
ISIL Releases Ukrainian Medics Kidnapped in Libya – Foreign Ministry
Earlier on Monday, Al Arabiya reported that several foreign medical employees, including Ukrainian nationals, were kidnapped by the militants in the north Libyan coastal city of Sirte.
“Thanks to the prompt measures taken by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Embassy in Libya, Ukrainian citizens were released and returned to where they previously stayed in Libya on the same day,” the ministry said in a statement.
The way I understand Ishchenko’s reasoning:
(A) The U.S. wants Russia to get directly militarily involved in Malorussia (“Ukraine”) (it already is militarily involved indirectly) because
(1) it would cause breakdown of (economic, i.e., money) relations between Russia and western Europe and possibly other countries;
(2) such a big military campaign would be very costly (money) for Russia, a drain on Russian developing economy (various empires in history have outspent the country’s treasure by military campaigns, think Romans, etc.);
(3) after the takeover, mopping-up the remaining Nazi resistance would be lengthy, costly (money) and destabilizing (just recall how many years were the Ukie, Lithuania and other Nazis active after the WWII);
(4) Russia would inherit an economic disaster, and would have to pay (money) for economic reconstruction from scratch (and moreover has no Stalin to lead mighty five-year plans);
(5) wild cards.
(B) And if Russia is patient and waits just a little longer (continuing skillful diplomacy and voentorg), things will all happily fall into place: the U.S. will foot all the bills, then it will stop footing the bills, and will eventually move on to some more profitable plunder elsewhere, before it rolls over and dies.
What I do not understand is … how sure can Russia be that the possible alternatives to the above would not be even costlier (money – people – the continuing existence of Russia as a country)? But then, thankfully, I am not an expert for such gargantuan questions…
Ishchenko’s analysis strikes me as one of the most lucid I’ve read, and it seems strangely optimistic, perhaps because he seems to see an end to the criminal mischeif of the neocon gang, at least with respect to Ukraine. Ha! They may not even get a military base out of it like they did in Kosovo.
Excellent – this guy has been reading my comments on here :)
My catch phrases are “killing russian speakers 30 km from the Russian border makes no sense unless dragging Russia into a war is the purpose” and “war between Russia and the US is the economic policy of Kiev, and to be fair the best one available”.
I do think we are heading to a German/French/Russian clean up of Ukraine. That means the death of Nato – something that Juncker with his Eu army seems to have planned for some time.
A lot of the shouting about Russia being in Ukraine has come from Nato – trying to prove by shouting what Kiev couldn’t achieve by shelling civilians. A Russia US war was existential for both Kiev and Nato.
If Iraq had a $3 trillion price tag, a Russia war would have a $30 trillion price tag. Plenty in the US administration wanted to be part of that. Not Obama though.
Nonsense. Hollande and Merkel are American agents.
Hollande and Merkel wouldn’t be the first puppets to take on a life of their own. There are French and German interests, and they don’t coincide with the US project of war in Europe.
They are forced to, but it only goes so far. Once they can see the locals lubing the ropes for the gallows, it becomes a two-sided game…
I can only hope he is right on the outcome.I have long believed that this situation could/should be solved in the time honored method.When you have a regime like the junta,and you have a large population opposing them,they fight a civil war.The victor wins power.That has been a truism since the beginning of time.The Spanish civil war,the Greek civil war,the Cuban revolution,Angolan civil war,the Vietnam war,the Yugoslav wars,Afghanistan,Iraq,Syria,Libya, are only a few modern examples.Barring a disaster,Russia has no need to send a liberating army today.And NATO,no matter all the talk,will not send combat troops.Both sides will (and probably do) supply the sides with weapons.And volunteers (real volunteers on the Novorossian side,and some real volunteers,but also mercenaries,on the junta side) to fight will be there.But this is a Ukrainian civil war in the main.Its up to the Ukrainian/Novorossian anti-fascists to win this war.And they can do so,if Russia supports them.Allows volunteers,and supplies to enter Ukraine to help.
It would be a crime,and as Talleyrand said once “worse than a crime,a blunder”.For Russia to allow a Russophobic fascist regime on its border.Enslaving millions of Rus peoples in Ukraine.I really don’t think any Russian government could long survive that (or at least I hope they wouldn’t).So its vital to Russia that the junta falls.The anti-fascists can do that if they are assured aid.Its not an easy task.But we’ve seen miracles of resistance over these months.And as their forces,grow stronger,more committed and professional.The fascist side is collapsing,slowly but surely.They aren’t finished by a long shot yet.But bit by bit we can see them getting weaker.And the spread of chaos in Banderastan.The rise of resistance in other areas is heartening.That should be pushed as much as possible.An overt fascist coup in Kiev would to a very positive occurrence.It would polarize the sides totally.Leaving no room for doubt in Ukraine who was who.
Due notizie danno il polso della situazione: A Kostyantynivka una città del Donbass occupata dalle truppe APU, la gente inferocita prende d’assalto le caserme dei militari Ucraini, colpevoli di avere, ieri, ucciso mentre erano ubriachi alla guida di un carro armato, una madre con la sua bambina.
L’altra notizia è che la Germania ha fatto sapere di non riconoscere la Crimea come Russa.
La guerra inizia, anzi continua..
Excellent translation. Thank you, Robin.
If the conflict evolves as the expert lays out, Ukraine will be a confederation of regions. It will be under Russian (therefore Eurasian) influence economically, and neutral like Switzerland.
China, who has about 8-10 billion dollars already riding on Ukraine pre-coup, will play a significant role. China has played carefully with its words and actions to be an investor long term in Ukraine, whoever won.
The regions confederation model will allow local hatreds to stay within boundaries. So the freaks and nazis can have their society while the normal Ukrainians and Russians can build their regions.
I would not be surprised to see Ukraine brought by Russia and China to the Security Council to become a UN-blessed Russian protectorate. Thus the Russians will not have to patrol and guarantee internal security. Each region will have its own security (Berkut, Nazi, militia or if things go bad in a region, UN.). The international borders guaranteed by Russia. That special status would probably last for 20-30 years until the insane Russophobia is modified by a long period of rebuilding and cultural reeducation.
But who knows? It’s all a crap shoot, and the crap is still flowing from Washington.
note to editor;
‘… It all comes back…’ – last paragraph
‘… It all comes down…’
Hope this helps.
Bright analysis,but the problem is do never underestimate the evil which is the US.Don’t forget that money is not a problem for them,they may print as long as necessary(at no cost,QE forever).Check the value of the USD versus the euro,and other former strong currencies:+ 23 pct in less than one year(and the US is banktrupted in principle).Everybody knows that it is just temporary,they will crash the euro to protect the dollar.They may live with a very low oil price for very long even with the sacrifice of all their shale oil/gaz industry.
They will try ANYTHING possible.Today the topic is to cancell or boycot the 2018 fifa soccer world cup.They are talking about even more sanctions for june.
And new topic as well,the sanctions will never be lifted without Crimea back to the Ukraine even against the will of the people.It is pure ideology right now,that is the reason why it is so dangerous.
One side must lose.There will be no compromise.Whatever the cost for the west,even war.
I agree 100% with your analysis. I sometimes wonder if those “analysts” actually believe what they write. Are they that naive?
As you said, the U.S. can print unlimited amounts of dollars: something most people don’t seem to be able to wrap their brains around. In other words, they can keep this pretty much forever as Russia is not doing a damn thing about it.
Actually, this is pretty frustrating. Everyday the dollar strengthens, stocks soar, oil prices go down, gold is kept flat and every single day that passes Russia does not do a single thing about those manipulations. Today they even managed to crush oil further while sending shares of oil companies through the roof.
They can do pretty much whatever the hell they want. Who’s going to stop them? Certainly not Russia.
“The question then arises: how do you ensure this “Somalia” doesn’t spread over the borders? It will be primarily Russia’s problem because Europe doesn’t have the military resources”.
Well, as far as the borders with Russia and (perhaps) Belorussia are concerned. Why would Russia give a tinker’s curse what happens in the West, though? If the Poles and the rest of them have difficulties, why shouldn’t the Russians just look on and chuckle quietly to themselves?
I think that is a possible and likely outcome of recent events.
FIrst bolshevism, then communism, then the bloody embrace of western ‘reform’, now exist in Russia a population with historic processes that have worked to subdue them. They are becomming innoculated to these perversions.
The allure of the west is vanishing; as it decends ever into darkness it will become nothing more than goblin stories mothers use to warn their children.
One thing the article does not mention is how the US government will react after it has been defeated in Ukraine. We have ample evidence that it avenges even the tiniest check or slight, and will patiently wait for decades to do so if necessary. Look at what happened to Qadafi. If the current Ukraine situation arose because Putin did the sensible, decent, legal and humane thing and brokered peace in Syria, what will the psychotic criminals in Washington do if they face a far bigger and more public reverse? The Russians had better remain on guard indefinitely against an unannounced first strike.
I think they will!!!!
I hope this gets read by everyone who’s been screaming Putin sold everyone out by not attacking a year ago.
If the Sektor brigades do go to Kiev to carry out the coup, regular troops may be called up there to fight them. The would leave the Novorossiya borders unguarded except perhaps by a few groups who are already offering to join with them. Let Kiev fight it out. The NAF would need to liberate other areas — the rest of Lugansk which is easy, as most of it is unoccupied and unguarded. Then Kharkov, which is guarded but not too hard to take if the flanks (Lugansk) are secure. There is strong support here, too, though not trained. Dnepropetrovsk may need to be done sooner if the Nazi brigades are still there (not gone on to Kiev).
Many towns have no garrisons. There may be 40 or 50 Nazis at most, lightly armed, APCs maybe but no tanks, equipped only to terrorise civilians. Disarming and arresting these is all it takes to liberate a lot of areas, provided the frontline armies have to suddenly go to protect the capital.
Let Kiev fight it out. The NAF would need to liberate other areas — the rest of Lugansk which is easy, as most of it is unoccupied and unguarded. Then Kharkov, which is guarded but not too hard to take if the flanks (Lugansk) are secure. There is strong support here, too, though not trained. Dnepropetrovsk may need to be done sooner if the Nazi brigades are still there (not gone on to Kiev).
With 4 maybe 5 oblasts held by NAF and a few regular army units, Kiev won’t have anyone to send against them (once it is sorted out who “Kiev” is). The Nazi brigades need to be disarmed rather than fought against; the biggest problem with them would be the ones who suddenly melt back into being civilians.
US and Baltics embassies need to be sent home; mercenaries held for questioning. Oligarch bank accounts frozen. IMF loans not defaulted, but rejected as legally odious.
Putin’s long absence now makes sense—he was mulling over the contents of this letter or whatever form the message took.
He went missing on March 6, & allowing for several days before this March 8 article for this letter to have been sent, explains it all.
And now Gordon Duff has asked President Putin to release Russian Intel which will expose about 300 traitors in Congress for their serious serial felonies and statutory espionage on behalf of the Khazarian Mafia (KM) against America and many Middle East nations.
Oh puh-leese, Duff and VT as a source? The guy who himself stated that at least 80% of what he writes is not true?
I have a beautiful bridge in New York city for sale. It’s like new and will cost you only $1.
Oh wait, it’s even worse – it’s Preston James, the “shape-shifting-lizard-aliens” guy. LMAO!!!
Or, maybe his lady love had a baby.
“Join our MSM 101, total BS course, Today!”
Here’s a ‘lil teaser;
“Why Lithuania is preparing for a Russian invasion – Wedged between Russian ally Belarus and the Russian Baltic Sea exclave of Kaliningrad, Lithuania is worried that it could be the next target of Russian aggression following invasions in Georgia in 2008 and Crimea and eastern…”
See? It’s easy. Throw in some keywords like ‘Russian invasion‘ and ‘Russian aggression‘ and you’ll end up with more tweeting followers than a classless & talentless porn actress.
You’ll get the hang of it in
I draw some satisfaction that I was predicting these developments since the beginnings of the Maidan.
Worth contemplating. It does raise a number of questions. For one, is the cost to the US that high? The US gains certain benefits, such as the damage to Russian businesses and families due to Ukrainian industry shutting down. Russia has to provide for refugees and support for the NAF.
And it is still an open question how much the EU and Germany were against a coup. The EU forcing Kiev to decide between the EU and the Eurasian Union was begging for a civil war.
Then comes the idea of Russia largely getting to reformat the country. What is Russia offering the US in exchange? To save a few billion dollars? It just seems optimistic to think that Germany and Poland will agree to this because they don’t want to see any immigrants. They have been working on this for over a century. As for stopping a war between Russia and the US, that may not be a problem once a warring states situation appears. The wars will be between Kiev and Lvov or Dnepropetrvsk and Kharkov.
The US conceit of ‘America’ as we know it must go, that is if it has not gone already. Whatever the case, there is no future for our planet unless this occurs. The longer this takes to be realised the lower the international status of home language English. This language is already retarded in that second language English is spoken by a greater number of people, most of whom have a very low opinion of the Anglo-Saxon.
not sure about correctedness of “russia…is fighting for all of the ukraine”
if by this he means Russia will use “military” means for the whole of Ukraine.I can’t imagine full scale military intervention, only protection for DPR/LNR if Minsk fails and AFU do re-attack, as a humanitarian basis, martial law declared, someone makes a catastrophic mistake-anything can happen in chaos.
I think VP is attempting to keep what remains of Ukraine as a whole temporarily until (if it can) establish some realistic kind of sanity, but would not be displeased if the peoples themselves(which is what happened in Crimea) decided after due reflection that a western and eastern partition or protectorates were formed, under mentoring of EU and Russia/CIS with EEU.Anything that forces? the EU to accept responsibility for their past and future actions could be good.
And anything that creates situations where Russ and EU would be forced to co-operate in a closer overall partnership for the better of Ukraine and EU Russia relations would be good, or if EU does not want to co-operate, then it will be left with the Ukraine rump and its fermenting volatility, always blaming someone else, but never America or EU, that may change their delusionality.
It is, it could be, a mirror of NATO strategy to have whole of eastern europe from Baltic to Georgia as NATO buffer zone pressurising Rus, but Rus could turn that round/invert it so west ukraine is a buffer that is forced upon EU.
Full economic crisis I think many from central Ukraine would travel eastwards, as Crimea’s burgeoning economic success and closeness to EEU, new bridge, tourism etc will attract people to Donbass , the south east and rebuild it, it is where the industrial base potential “remains” and people will want work.A stronger Rus economy-hints in recent days re rouble, growth, oil price stabilising, will prove attractive to Ukrainians moving closer to Rus, to expand the numbers who do currently work in Rus and send money home.It will also strengthen politically the standing of DPR/LNR and Krygov state potential.it’s gonna take massive billions to rebuild Donbass,but look anna-news etc, how people are constructively working towards establishing and implementing their statehood, and sense of community, working together tirelessly. Some clever people there, much more than lunatic asylum of Kiev RADA.
I still think Kharkiv could turn eastwards, could become an eastern regional capitol, this might encourage Mariupol and Odessa(perhaps but tricky there, too volatile, too much a mix) to become affiliated to the south east more closely.And people will feel safer with Crimea being strongly defended, remember VP had said last year he would protect “russian “peoples , I believe.Russian speaking peoples still believe that.
The world is moving to international multipolarity, but locally polarity is what is happening, rich richer, poor poorer, and I think sensible, opportunistic peoples in Ukraine will gravitate more west and east. people will become more scared? of central black hole of disaster that is Kiev.They will leave that to “foreign investors”, ie CIA etc needs to rent apartements, that will pay a lot more to home owners, pay mortgages, so the owners will live on that or decamp elsewhere’s, perhaps..
“Look at how much importance “tyrannical” Putin attaches to people’s sentiments and desires, even if those desires are imposed from the outside. Now we know for certain that the Kremlin was conducting opinion polls constantly and everywhere—in the Crimea, on the Donbass, in Russia concerning both Crimea and Donbass, and in the various regions of Ukraine. One can criticize VVP for this, but he does not want to do anything that does not have the support of the inhabitants of a given territory. He acts in a similar manner in Russia—he makes a decision only when the people are ready, or even more than ready, for it. I think that’s due to an understanding that the government’s actions are truly historical and make lives better only when they are based on the desires of the majority of the population. When the government and the citizens are acting as a united front, it leads to the government of the people (unlike democracy, in which power belongs to the 2% who are democrats).”
“According to Western experts, the truce is a temporary postponement of the protracted conflict that will most likely end up with eastern regions of Ukraine turning into de facto Russian satellite states, Lucas Powers of CBC News wrote.
Militia to respond to Kiev’s provocations
The cease-fire is hardly indicative of the possibility to cease hostilities in Ukraine, Jane Boulden, Head of the Department of International Relations and Security Studies at the Royal Military College of Canada believes. According to her, both parties acknowledge that they do not necessarily understand it as a step towards peace. They agreed to this, because taking a break suits them both, Boulden believes. According to her, Putin’s tactic of “ebbs and flows,” may not push the West towards intervention, but reach the desired geopolitical objective in Ukraine.
“The first and less likely possibility is that Putin negotiates legally binding independence referendums in Luhansk and Donetsk in return for an end to the war, but this option would be “political suicide” for Ukrainian leaders in Kiev,” Randall Hansen, director of the Centre for European, Russian and Eurasian studies at the Munk School of Global Affairs in Toronto believes.
“Apparently, hostilities may resume in the coming days, blogger from Luhansk Yuly Fedorovsky told Pravda.Ru. – Thus, Ukraine will be relieved of the need to take fundamental documents to execute the Minsk agreements.
March 14 was the last day, when, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine was supposed to adopt a resolution, according to which the Donetsk and Lugansk regions would be subject to a special regime. The Ukrainian parliament is to meet on March 17. If there is no political settlement, there is no peace. Kiev and Washington want to undermine the Minsk arrangements.”
Today is critical-DPR warns re Poro’s unilateral proposed amendments to Special Status Act-unconsulted, and un-agreed so far.Jus delaying/breaking tactics.
“The member states of the OSCE in goodwill were notified of…the snap combat readiness exercises by the troops from the Northern Fleet that include individual units from the Western Military District,” Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov was quoted by the ministry’s press services as saying.“The total number of these forces and hardware stands at: 8,700 servicemen, approximately 40 tanks, 400 military armored vehicles, 100 artillery systems of over 100 millimeters, 70 military planes, and 30 helicopters,” Antonov was quoted as saying.
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/military/20150317/1019598150.html#ixzz3Udc1bPhe
MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Russian strategic Tu-22M3 (Backfire) strike bombers have been deployed to the Crimean Peninsula to hold snap combat readiness drills, a source in the Russian Defense Ministry said Tuesday.
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/military/20150317/1019595277.html#ixzz3UdcQCgrn
More great news –
EU allies defy US to join China-led Asian Bank -The new China-led Asian investment bank, a potential rival to institutions such as the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank, has enlisted more US allies as members after Britain decided to join last week. France, Germany and Italy have defied US instructions not to participate in the Bank, said UK daily- read more here:
Colossal Defeat” For Obama As Australia Joins China’s Regional Bank – It won’t be long before other western nations jump on the anti-dollar bandwagon with action and not just words. (that already happened – look above)
Bottom line: this isn’t theory or conjecture anymore. Every shred of objective evidence suggests that the dollar’s dominance is coming to an end.
Rebuilding Ukraine is not a burden for Russia, but a source of prosperity and resources. First of all, the human and geographic resources of the country on their own. Second, the ability to reuse and repurpose the infrastructure and companies already existing in Ukraine if fully reintegrated with the Russian economy and military complex instead of having to reduplicate them in and outside Russia (i.e. no need for physically replacing Yuzhmash missiles, Nikolaev shipbuilding, Ukrainian Gas infrastructure with South Stream or Turk Stream, etc.). This frees the effort being spent on reduplication to instead move forward.
Wall Street wants everyone to think backwards, that spending money is a burden and letting real resources go to “save” money is a form of prosperity. This allows real resources to be acquired at penies on the dollar (or ruble or hyrvnia). People get rich by saving and investing. Companies and countries get rich by spending and creating. Or even better, by seizing assets by force, ala Kolomoisky.
Russian prosperity is threatened by turtling up and avoiding engagement in Ukraine, or viewing it as a burden and hoping someone else will pay for it.
Lastly, the military solution in Ukraine remains for NAF rebels at the right time (when the popular opinion is ready), to move along the border (i.e. with Russian logisitical support for fuel, food and ammunition) to take Kharkov, Kiev and Odessa. Not a Russian invasion. In fact, just having the NAF take Kharkov and Kremenchug would probably wipe out the regime, as it would lose its military/industrial hub in Kharkov and the primary oil refiery for the whole country. It would no longer have the capacity to wage war without a long logisitical supply line being created from America or interested parties in Europe (Poland? UK?) to supply those same items. Mariupol is a distraction. This is why the bulk of Ukr forces are between Donestk and the Seversky-Donets river – to prevent a breakout towards Kharkov.
What you have written in the headline is exactly true and it is intended by the “elite”. How stuped must a (US) government be, to use Nazis in the Ukraine or ISIS/ISIL in the Middle East or Boko Haram in Africa to bring about regime changes. The whole world is now against them. How stupid is it, to let general Wesley Clark declare on Democracy Now the plans of the US for the Middle East and Lybia ? Has the general suffered any threats ? No, there were no threats.
Btw. Democracy Now is funded by Soros:
How stuped is it, to openly declare that the US is generally operating with false flags ?
Has this guy suffered some threats ? – no !
Not long ago the Rockefeller/Kissinger founded and dominated CFR declares the crisis in the Ukraine is the West’s fault (that is true – but why are they telling that publicly now ?)
How is it possible, that a man like John Perkins can explain how exactly the US is blackmailing and enslaving other nations or bring about regime changes ? John Perkins is teaching this subject at universities. Will his speaches/interviews bring any sympathy for the US and were there be any threats to him ? – no!
All these informations are publicly availible because the western “elite” wants it that way. The question is why ?
Because cracking down on dissent makes you look weak. Better allow it and contain it (“You and your conspiracy theories!”).
What is wrong with “Kuchma’s outdated “multivector” policy of being friends with, and milking, everyone”?
Belarus has also a policy that tries to be friends with both sides and is focused on the national benefit. And it has been quite successful with that.
The problem in Ukraine was that people like Yanukovich were too busy enriching themselves and that they didn’t pay enough attention to their relations with their neighbors. The way Yanukovich lost control over the negotiations over the DCFTA treaty with the EU was an ashaming example of mismanagement.
Or, maybe his lady love had a baby.
I think that Rostislav Ishckenko is wrong in his analysis that the US has lost the Ukraine. They have almost 100 years of solidarity with German Fascism among US super wealthy. Of all those whose stories one can easily find, is the one more difficult to find about Henry Ford. It is well known in the Detroit, Michigan, USA of once wealthy, once middle class, Michigan auto workers, and their descendants to this day in March of 2015: bankrupt Hitler came a-begging to far right wing Henry Ford who promptly gave him pre-depression, one million dollars. Henry only one of thousands of the super rich robber barons of the American 1930s. US corporations were new then and US International Business Machines chipped in too, setting up special new IBM machines for the German Third Reich. The Jewish owned private newspapers on the East and the West coasts chipped in money and priceless propaganda. Few but the US powerful knew of the German Concentration camps.
The criminal reparations on Germany in revenge for the First World War energised the German need for a Second World War less than 100 years later was because Washington’s and Britain’s demand for the criminal reparations (revenge payment demands) were too onerous, humiliating and bankrupting to a shattered Germany. And then the US Great depression had beggared the world on top of that. With no hope Germany turned to the Austrian artist run amok. He seemed to shout answers.
The Western bankers and industrialists saw opportunities galore. America, at least three thousand to ten thousand miles away from Europe, still a farming state, only beginning to develop autos and trucks, saw a chance to take over constantly warring Europe. President Truman who was Roosevelt’s Vice President when the great man died, decided to go for an American global empire by dropping two atom bombs on major Japanese cities filled with non-military civilians. When he realised that Russia alone had won WW11 losing 30 million to do so, he ordered Eisenhower to start the Cold war on Russia before Dwight Eisenhower came home and removed his uniform. A ‘Cold’ war that never really ended as it became the backbone of the US Industrial Military Complex Eisenhower warned us of as he was named to become the architect of it. He was handed the Presidency by Americans sure he had won WW11 for them alone.
This was ostensibly to punish Russia for being a Communist country , in actuality it was to so weaken and bankrupt her so she never could replace the million upon millions of Russian farmers who dropped their pitchfork to shoulder the new Russian rifle, now famous over the world. Russia had learned from the first Crimean War to bring her down she needed the world’s best rifle. She made it. She won WW11 for that globe that holds all of us. Not allowed by the United States!
Having carefully set up a recreation of WW11 starting in earnest under Clinton and Bush 1, the US now owns the front porch of Russia since 2014. Outright criminal theft. The last 60 years or more of US administrations have set up the chaos war senarios they are enacting today. The last 30 years or more since inheriting from Britain the final demonisation of Russia begun by the British Parliament in 1814 as the Ottoman empire tottered, and poor Europe planned the parts of it they would steal, America decided to play them all for fools and get both the European continent and Russia at once.
Membership in US owned and fascistic-ally run NATO, has enabled the US to force Europe, in the form of the European Union Parliament and Commission, to do it’s bidding and to self trash their own International Human Rights Law by allowing the US to break every one of them. The Unites States owned International Monetary Fund is fundamentally structured to destroy countries from with in, by way of the US Ponzi-Scheme money markets world wide.
The chance to eviscerate Russia is too powerful an US lure to pass up no matter either the global censure and mass genocidal massacres involved. In fact I am sure that the US is so unhinged by living under no laws since the US set up 9/11, that it will enthusiastically atom bomb countries that try and stop them from erasing Russia. They, so close to Moscow now have begun using sudden fires in Russia as they used them in Georgia, Greece, France, Germany.
Ishencko may be correct but he does not mention the history as I know it. I offer only what i know to the thread of discourse.
I just wrote for hours a long thoughtful comment, maybe it will be posted later, but basically I disagree with Ishchenko that Russia will ‘inherit’ failed, shattered Ukraine. That it will become possible to remove most of the hundreds of thousands of US owned and militarised Nazis in Ukraine and those rushing to join Ukraine from all over the globe, I believe is impossibly untrue. Washington has become criminally obsessed to erase the Slavic race and the world’ biggest nation land mass, the one Eurasian country. In elite American governing circles the erasure of Russia, ten to 15 thousand miles away from America, has been planned for over 100 years.
It strikes me and dawns on me how hopelessly Ukrainophobic most of this blog tends to be,
—people just salivating [like true predators] at the prospect of a country getting ripped apart
and devoured so to speak,—Ukrainians as “orcs” and “nazis” [not in the sense of being politically
national socialist].—Just like when one visits a white supremacist blog or website, there are always
good things said in there about Adolf, so here, there are always good things said and good comparisons made about “uncle Joe”.—You cannot expect much else.—Of course, the viewpoints
here can be interesting and offering food for thought, definitely not mainstream, but then one can
also say that about a typical white supremacist blog and website. Sometimes it seems like the Ukrainians have finally been “promoted” to be alongside the Jews as the ultimate enemies of the rest of humankind, and how much better things would be on the planet if neither of these nations existed at all,—according to what prevails on this blog.
It strikes me and dawns on me how hopelessly Ukrainophobic most of this blog tends to be,
—people just salivating [like true predators] at the prospect of a country getting ripped apart
and devoured so to speak,—Ukrainians as “orcs” and “nazis” [not in the sense of being politically
national socialist].—Just like when one visits a white supremacist blog or website, there are always
good things said in there about Adolf, so here, there are always good things said and good comparisons made about “uncle Joe”.—You cannot expect much else.—Of course, the viewpoints
here can be interesting and offering food for thought, definitely not mainstream, but then one can
also say that about a typical white supremacist blog and website. Sometimes it seems like the Ukrainians have finally been “promoted” to be alongside the Jews [and perhaps the Kurds] as the ultimate enemies of the rest of humankind, and how much better things would be on the planet if neither of these nations existed at all,—according to what seems to prevail on this blog.
Anyone serious about targeting and stopping the real source of the insane warmongering in the world must aim at the non-governmental, non-state entities of global scope, which are neither
the USA nor EU nor Israel nor Ukraine. These overt political structures are not the real sources
of the evil so to speak. And if Russians still tend to hero-worship Stalin, then they are in no position to start throwing stones at anyone, and they have no moral high ground whatsoever.
The Kiev crisis was clearly one that neither Russian nor US expected. Yanukovich was trying to have it both ways through balance: EU and Russian economic benefits. But, when the niggerly offer of EU- liaison was made clear, he realized that the EU offered very little, chased by its sick relation with the PIGS: Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain. Forced by US to extend EU to include East Euro counties, the EU not only found itself in unwanted tensions with Russia but also loaded down with the burden of sinking billions of Euros into those nations.
But GW Bush wanted to play with the anti-Russian US conservatives and Israel wanted the profits from arming them to EU standards so expanding NATO seemed ideal. To remove the military character of this action the EU took these nations into the EU, which is not military, to reassure Russia that Europe is not seeking an expanded military alliance right to Russia’s borders. Similarly, Ukraine’s murky economic ties to EU are meant as a bYPASS of NATO. Yanucovich was outraged by how little was offered while the West Ukraine Rightwingwers were outraged by the EU and not NATO offer.
Poroshenko represents the Oligarchs that Yanukovich used to satisfy and they in turn made him rich. The Righwingers are as angry with him as with Yanukovich but he was accepted in the hope that it would bring in American aid. For their part, the EU leaders DO NOT want NATO Expansion. They want EU expansion in the Gaullist sense “from the Atlantic to the Urals.” Putin saw the tendency of the REAL EUers to bring in Russia and to break with America after the US, through the NATO mechanism, forced aggressive expansion to Russia’s border.
Israel, in collaboration with the very Rightwingers whose fathers massacred Jews together with the Nazis, has been collaborating with them in hope of turning America against Russia, an old Israeli right goal. So, Russia is being punished economically, to Israel’s satisfaction but to the EU’s great dissatisfaction. For the Russians, if the EU is forced to impose economic sanctions on Russia, the EU is ever more likely to break with the US and NATO may well dIsappear as it is an American CREATURE that Europe has had enough of. Europe would thus tilt more to a Gaullist model that cuts America out of its current bully position. the EU could thus become an Atlantic-to-the-Urals massive economic powerhouse by integrating Russia. A united Europe is a nightmare to American leaders, particularly the Republican corporate magnates. And so they imposed economic sanctions on Russia for defending Russophones against Kiev’s assault.
For the Kiev’s oligarchs, the current war is a small price to pay in return for economic mana from EU forced by America. The people least considered in this equation is the Ukrainian people, Ukrainian and Russophones. If Putin was turned into a puppet by the Russian oligarchs who suffered from the embargos imposed by the US/Israel cabal, then chaos seems inevitable as weapons forced through NATO by the US will only end up on sale in Africa by greedy oligarchs. Eastern Europe, more than strong leaders, needs honest governments that cuts the oligarchs of each of these nations down to size through legal means, as none of them have clean hands.
But if Putin was cutdown from power, Russia the must be in the hands of gangster Russian oligarchs using Putin as a cover puppet to exploit his popularity while conceding to America in order to end the sanctions on them. If that’s Putin’s fate, then it sets back a real European Union for decades, the real goal of Anglo-American capital. As a believer in a strong united Europe free from Anglo-American domination– able to negotiate peace– Russia could be a moderating force in the Middle East. This is exactly what Likud isc seeking in hope that Iran and Iraq would again come under American attack, it dragging Europe per NATO treaty behind.
Already America sees the uselessness of its Afghan venture and wants Europe to jump back in through the NATO mechanism. If Wash DC can buy off the Russian oligarchs the way it did the Ukrainians ones, the EU faces economic demise or tortal Anglo-American domination. This can only lead to European instability as American politicians and Wall Street fish in these turbulent waters. I never would have thought that so much depends on one European leader holding control– Putin!
What is the real reason why the USA staged the Maidan coup and, ironically, Germany agrees with it? See and listen for yourself:
Very good analysis, almost excellent. I though disagree with solution. It would not be advisable for Russia to take the responsibility for all Ukraine. Russia should take responsibility only for the oblastes that will vote to join Novorossia. That is; that the decision must be made by democratic means.The will of population of individual oblastes must be respected.
But before Ukrainian government (Although Fascist; must accept federalization otherwise the Ukraine is getting every day closer to catastrophe.)