by Paul Craig Roberts (posted by permission)
I am addressing what might be weaknesses in The Saker’s clarification of the Iranian situation.
At this time, it is up to Israel whether or not war occurs between the US and Iran. Israel very much wants this war as a means of putting Iran and Syria into chaos, thus leaving Hezbollah isolated and unsupplied. Then Israel can succeed in occupying southern Lebanon.
The American neoconservatives want Iran in chaos, because then the chaos can be exported into the Muslim regions of the Russian Federation with the purpose of causing sufficient internal turmoil to remove Russia as a constraint on US unilateralism.
Israel and the Neocons have Trump where they want him. Trump’s outrageous and reckless murder of Qasem Soleimani has provoked serious Iranian threats against the US to which Trump has replied with threats. Although there is some indication that Trump has realized his mistake and is trying to calm the situation, a calmed situation is not what Israel and the neoconservatives want.
Polls of the American public indicate that anti-Iranian propaganda has succeeded. All Israel or the neoconservatives, who are well placed, need to do is to conduct a false flag attack on some American entity, military base or personnel or ship, and blame it on Iran. The American press will demand Iranian blood and so will most of Trump’s constituency. As Trump has already committed himself to a response, he will have to deliver.
All wars have unknown and unintended consequences. As a result of Putin’s caution, Iran lacks sufficient air defense to prevent saturation bombing of the country. Washington would send in jihadists rather than its own soldiers, and the jihadist assignment would be to carry turmoil into Russia.
If it looked like Iran was prevailing in the conflict with the US, Trump would save the day for himself by nuking Iran. Indeed, some of the American rightwing are already calling for nuking Iran.
Rather than speculate on the consequences, I ask, “why risk them?”
A defensive alliance between Russia, Iran, and China, and any others inclined to join, would tie Israel’s hands and prevent the outbreak of war. Neither Trump nor Natanyahu are going to go to war with Russia, China, and Iran.
The reason US and Israeli aggression continue unabated is that no defense alliance has formed against them.
As an attack on Iran is an attack on Russia, forming a defensive alliance is a way to prevent the attack, perhaps the only way. An alliance would simply be a formalization of the implied, de facto alliance that already exists. It would actually reduce the threat against Iran and Russia and is the surest way of stabilizing the dangerous situation.
A “defensive alliance” was exactly the reason why WWI spun out of a regional conflict into a global mass murder. Back then carefully set up and orchestrated years in advance, essentially by the Brit-ish king and his Masonic kin. At least some world leaders seem to have learned from this lesson that ‘defensive pacts’ are a trap and not a solution.
I agree with that. Interlocking alliances made WW I inevitable. But the analogy to the second world war is a better one. In the second world war we were dealing with a nation gone mad. No one stood up to that nation until the entire world was in flames.
Maybe Roberts is right. It is time to draw a line in the sand.
On the other hand, realistically, I don’t think that Russia or China will do it.
Russia won’t do it because it was hard enough to sell the Russian people on Syria where they were fighting US proxies. Here they would be fighting the US itself.
China won’t do it for the same reason as well as the fact that the Chinese believe that America is in terminal decline and waiting is the best strategy.
Wrong mike. Here’s the headline from the Daily Express in March 1933 announcing WWII ‘Judea Declares War on Germany’.
All wars are bankers wars.
By deception …
Thanks for that necessary reminder.
Aside from the fact that Iran and Russia are NOT natural military allies (and neither are China and Russia), there are several disadvantages to such a formal alliance.
Drawing lines in the sand can be a temporary fix but it creates plenty of headaches down the road. It’s virtually an invitation to cross them and test the resolve of the drawer. Uncle Sam won’t do that on its own, of course, nor will the zionazis in Tel aviv. They would use proxies, plenty of them. Russia would be drawn into a quagmire in no time with few direct targets to respond to.
Essentially, such a formal alliance is a sitting duck while the attackers can move freely. And all they need to do is to cause enough Russian casualties that public support in Russia falls apart. Essentially, the Americans would get a very low cost opportunity to strike Russia and Iran at the same time with minimal risk for themselves. Russia woukld fight with myriad disadvantages, could hardly use its strengths and could be rather easily defeated like the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. That would be a devastating outcome for the world, especially psychologically.
An informal alliance, on the other hand, could be a lot more effective. You can tell the yanks and the “chosen ones” via informal channels that you will support iran in any way possible. In ANY way. Officially, you maintain credible deniability. You retaliate where and when you want.
You do not react on each and every attack. You pick the reactions and the actions. You fight with proxies . You can youse all your strengths, determining where and when you WANT TO respond. In the other case, the other side will determine when you will HAVE TO respond, they just have to poke enough. They will largely determine time and place.
I agree a lot with Bob. The anti-war opposition in the US is very weak and I understand their desire to look towards Russia for help. Unfortunately, there is little that can be done from outside the USA to break the unbelievable indoctrination and non-education there. I am too young to have lived through the Nazi Germany times, fortunately. But I could imagine that the kind of indoctrination and blind hatred against other nations and cultures and the unbelievable faith in their own superiority and choseness is very similiar to those in the Nazi era.
I don’t think that a formal alliance would happen anyway.
Until the draft is restarted, there will not be much of an antiwar movement in the US. Americans tend to not concern themselves with the deaths of people they do not know. Only when they are forced to send their own children to die in wars for power and greed will they speak out.
At the news of the General’s murder, enlistment offices were not overrun with Trump’s supporters wanting to enlist, the draft offices and websites were overrun with Americans fearing being drafted.
I think that tactical nucs will be used prior to any draft being enacted.
Hopefully that will never happen.
Interesting link related to this thread.
Russia has just offered to sell to Iran enough S400’s to seal Iranian air space.
My mistake. The article states that that was an offer to Iraq, not Iran.
However, I believe that the offer was previously made to Iran.
Nonetheless, it would be interesting if Iraq takes them up on the offer. An air defense system that would seal their air space against anyone.
nation gone mad? the reason hitler came to power is because of the conditions placed on germany after ww1 and his intention to reclaim stolen german territory. notice the allied powers didnt declare war on the ussr when it also invaded poland. it was actually very logical and calculated.
Sorry sraosha I belive you have th cart before the horse.
The alliances that led to WWI were based an a very real imperial contest between the Brit-Euro Alliance excluding a German emergence. This was so obvious that Engels outlined the war in 1883!
Comparison’s in WWI are with a strong and dominant empire opposed to an emergent one, both playing the same game. This is two different games, an old dying empire and a multi-polar response. So defensive alliances take on a new meaning.
Russia and China need not ally by sending troops, but hardware, masses and masses of hardware. The Iraqi decision to expel foreign troops and close airspace. One clause of exception to allow this. It is I believe a clue. In its case a all level air defense S400 and more local ground to air hardware, drone coverage and armor support could safely surround US bases and force their withdrawal without a shot being fired the equipment could be borrowed rather than brought (leased even).
Russia and China, should not send troops into the cauldron, but civil rebuilding, joint navel exercises, training etc.,. would help. The withdrawal of Iranian forces, which are few from Iraq seems part of this already being done.
I would see Putin redouble his diplomatic efforts and do what he does best, but helping a sovereign country is not incompatible with this and Russian forces, boots, should be lightly added for strictly training and some intelligence. This is not the time for bluster, but nor is it the time for timidity — decisive action precisely placed.
Indeed, direct approach seems unlikely.
Also, if nobody likes what USA do, this doesn’t mean everybody else can trust each other.
Maxim 29: The enemy of my enemy is my enemy’s enemy, no more, no less.
Which is another reason to choose flexibility and not commit too much before the fog clears.
Besides, if the formal alliance fails, it’s a disaster… and if it succeeds as a deterrent, it saves USA a lot of expenses in short term? Why would Russia and China want this?
There seems to be a lot of loud (if mostly superficial) anti-war opposition in the US, simply because “Iran War Bad” aligns with “Orange Man Bad”.
Less superficially: Tulsi Gabbard loudly objects too. And it looks like she’s going to not only become Trump’s rival #1, but unite and rebuild the Inner Party in an older, less dangerously idiotic form. Whether her platform is pre-approved, or only chosen for popularity and will be approved opportunistically, doesn’t matter — it’s still necessarily populist, and so far this works.
Thus the opposition to war as such will be encouraged, and probably prioritized over straightforward “Orange Man Bad”.
Also, due to Progressive doctrine of pacifism (however hypocritical that may be in practice), it’s the default path, and would require an effort to opt out (if no harder than another “think of teh children!” campaign) rather than to opt in.
All that the resistance axis needs to do is kick Uncle Shmuel out of Iraq and wait for Uncle Shumel to make the next move.
Sooner or later based on history it will be a military response by the US and its Allies but “what are you going to do” you can’t negotiate with people who are insane.
Muslims know very well what is coming they have had an age to prepare, God willing Uncle Shumel and his allies despite their superior weapons will suffer a momentous defeat.
Uncle Shumel will then likely react to the defeat by nuking most of the middle east until all that remains is Smoke and a few Arabs but Muslims have been prepared for this too.
Paul has been trying to second guess the Russian geopolitical strategy for years and has been wrong at every turn. This is because he thinks things like patience or stoicism are weak notions that will not improve the situation for the targeted country. Russia,iran and china have avoided reciprocal escalation because these actions by the empire are flea bites designed to get a response which can then be used for war. The empire is finished and time is the best ally to wait it out.
Now, it is a bit deeper.
PCR is desperately seeking for a way to put USA back on track.
Sometimes i feel like i can feel his pain and despair about American brain rot.
He wants USA to get bitchslapped by Russia to come back to senses, if not to virtues.
So he persistently invents reasons to make Russia wanting to become a soul asylum ward for USA.
He recovers his experiences with USSR and one and one seeks for write incantation formula that would magically make Kremlin lost his mind and rush mindlessly to save the world, again.
Despite Russia can sympathise with American pains of declining might it will not be curing America at Russia’s own cost. America must heal herself, or succumb. Making America Sane Again is not Russia’s business.
How many years until the empire collapses? 10? How many deaths will that cost? I agree 100% with PCR, in order to prevent a war and millions of deaths, Russia and China has to form an alliance. I also agree with PCR in saying that all these deaths is also on Russia’s hands by doing nothing. Btw, the attack on Iran was already planned for years, and was well in the cards. Nobody can deny which countries are next: Russia and China. No not by direct military confrontation, but by sanctions, creating choas by sending in jihadists, economic means, trade wars, etc. Why wait until it is Russia’s turn? How many deaths do you allow while waiting until the empire collapses?
« I also agree with PCR in saying that all these deaths is also on Russia’s hands by doing nothing. »
Huh? Are you serious?
In just one sentence you made two grave mistakes!
First, in what court would the victim get blamed for the wrong doings of the perpetrator?
Second, what do you mean Russia is doing nothing? Russia is the only country that is actually doing something, and quite a bit might I add. From the Ukraine to Venezuela, Russia has been the only country that actively stands against the warmongers.
As the second biggest holder of the planet’s nuclear stockpile, being prudent is not a sin but a salvific virtue. Russia has to carefully analyze every particular detail and predict every possible outcome so as to avoid the great responsibility of starting a nuclear World War. Being committed in a defensive pact denies Russia this flexibility.
What has a court to do with this? Unfortunately, we live in a world were justice is hardly relevant. Otherwise, the empire would be brought to justice a long time ago.
Ok, imagine this picture: suppose there is a bully on the schoolyard fighting everybody who doesn’t agree with it. There is one, maybe 2 persons who can stand against the bully. And that person is looking the other way. Isn”t he *morally* also responsible? Knowing that sooner or later the bully will also take on that person? Why wait? Why not join forces?
Next to this: what is a better alternative? A bully is threatening, fighting, etc. kids at the school yard one by one. Many kids are afraid and lack of any alternative join the bully. OR: common we all join forces and we jointly tacle this bully together?
My friend, your illustration is inapplicable.
A better illustration would be that of a domestic violence:
Imagine a police officer strongly suspecting domestic violence in a house. Does he have the legal right to enter the house to intervene? The answer is no—not without an invitation from a family member, or a judge’s warrant.
Likewise, no country, including the US and Russia, has any legal authority to intervene in another country’s woes, unless invited by the said country or having a UN mandate. Ignoring this is what the US is doing: playing the world’s self-appointed Judge Dredd. A police officer, judge, and executioner rolled up in one.
What is more, a country is not an individual but collective of individuals; hence, a country’s government *sole* duty is to respect the wishes and needs of its own people. Hence, other countries needs must be considered within this point of view.
Furthermore, Russia has no more moral responsibility in the matter than any other country. In fact, Russia is neither the wealthiest, nor the most populous country. Why don’t you call out Germany, or France, or India, or China for not helping out Iran?
Do not get me wrong. I am all for restoring order and normalcy in the Middle-East. But the rule of law and the wishes of the sovereign states involved must be respected.
The domestic example given here is not applicable. A police officer is required and expected to intervene in a situation as such, including getting access to the residence without getting permission. Can you imagine asking permission from a judge as the suspect is knifing the victim to death? You are mixing apples and oranges.
You really need to do away with this notion that Russia are the heroes who have a duty to save the world. This black or white idealism is just going to end up in disappointment. Russia’s duty is to Russia. Russia will only help others when it in their own interest to help. I know it may be hard to hear this, but it’s the cold, hard truth.
Throwing lines about bloody hands really doesn’t help anyone.
“……. This black or white idealism is just going to end up in disappointment. Russia’s duty is to Russia…….”
The majority of Americans almost always tend to think in black & white. The rest of the world sees everything in varying hues of grays, dark black, colors, and the many hues of Life. They should know. Few of these very old nations have been around the block for centuries. Not America. Full steam ahead and to hell with anybody else. Trump is a perfect portrayal of this mentality.
Their insular nation has morphed most Americans in a country of zombified idiots.
We’ve witnessed this downward projection of stupidity that has reached into the very sinews of the American culture. What a sad indictment for “America.”
> Ok, imagine this picture: suppose there is a bully on the schoolyard fighting everybody who doesn’t agree with it. There is one, maybe 2 persons who can stand against the bully.
That is wrong picture.
What happens is: there is a schoolyard, fileld with bullies, and the big bully is fighting little bullies to mantain the pecking order between bullies.
And that “only person” can pic kthe fight with the large bully, but will he succeed – all the “saved” lesser bullies will gang up on him and blame him, because that is exactly how it turned out again and again and again for last 200 years.
Why would he want to get ganged up yet again?
Dostoevsky. Was. Right.
We were not up to his wisdom and perceiving.
Hopefully we matured now.
“all these deaths is also on Russia’s hands by doing nothing.”
If you believe that then would you say that all American Jews are to blame for the crimes of the Zionists if they did nothing ?
Not sure of your age, but this generation has a bad habit redirecting responsiblity. If a drug user dies from an overdose, they want to blame everyone BUT the person that took the drug. Women coming out of the woodwork 10- 15 – 20 years later claiming a guy, many times a young guy, traumatized them in someway. Ect ect ect.
The fact is, the USG and the citizens that put them in office are responsible for the millions of people slaughtered since the creation of this country, for no other reason then power and greed. No one else.
Russia IS the no.1 holder of nuclear weapons. USA is #2
Isn’t it odd that from 190+ countries, it is Russia that gets the blame of not doing “enough” to fight the NATO-Israeli zionazi alliance. The only major country that actually does fight them. No, China, doesn’t. Not yet.
Russia is fighting on so many fronts at the same time with so limited ressources compared to those of the enemy. It is nothing short of a wonder that Russia is still there, holding her ground and actually being stronger than before. But, make no mistake, she is vulnerable and NOT in the stronger position. Russia still has to play a much weaker hand masterfully to just keep standing.
I know, it is very hard to swallow. Very hard to just watching and feeling impotent. All of us know how that feels. we have lived through these situations aplenty and this might be another one. Russia has to act extremely carefully. Traps everywhere. I pray for the brave people of Iran. Russia still may be more of help to them as an informal ally than a formal one.
Today’s wars are more about information wars and decpetions than ever before. Informal alliances have advantages on this field, too.
During 19th century Russia gained herself a reputation of silly callgirl, to be summoined when you (any other nation) needs her services, ordered to do her “duties” for free, then kicked out for being dirty, for being kind of relation that should remain hidden in “civilized” society.
USSR did not fixed it, but reinforced. While Russian Empire was a callgirl summoned by Christian or Pan-Slavic incantations, the USSR was a call-girl answering to Comunistic incantations. Still a free to use city bicycle though.
Now the girl changed and all her “clients” found they lost what they always had for granted and for free and when they demanded. They are at loss, service that wasl always offered to them is gone. Remember Gaddafi in UN preaching about “strong Russia that is here no more” after his Libya stolen Soviet debts and largewly kicked Russian business out.
But, they truly are at loss, loosing free service thewy for centuries learnt to rely and use.
They feel punished, unjustly.
And so they lament.
And so they can not belive this change is real, if it worked for 200 years it SHOULD work for next 100 years.
Just the password phrase changed and they need to somehow guess the new correct password to get the free service back.
And PCR work hard to guess the passphrase.
I hope there is no passwords now, at all, but i may be wrong and PCR may be right. Future will tell.
I agree time is the best ally against the empire. So why russia china and iran don t create a de-facto alliance which would buy more time to use against the empire?
I may be naive or I simply can t see the whole picture by asking this question.
Agreed. The Americans seem almost incapable of assessing the chessboard through any other lens but their own. Might wins.
The objective of Russia, China etc has been to allow the US hegemonic idea to die by a thousand cuts while not giving cause for the US to play to its strengths i.e. fight.
The victories in Ukraine, Syria and Venezuela have all been masterful exercises in restrained deployment, targeted action, clear accompanying public commentary and powerful criticism of US actions. In every one of these actions the primary wider objective of the US/Israel has been to escalate an ill judged response into a wider conflict, which they can win.
The US/Israel continues to chuck down a pistol and the target nations have successfully refused to bend and pick it up. It has been masterful.
I am quite certain that diplomatic work by China and Russia in Iran is frantic at the moment. ‘Stand down and keep your line, or we are all in this’. Both Russian and Chinese listeners will be on high alert for any flag attack, and they will be telling the US that they know whats planned even before it kicks off. And if one slips through, the news outlets and political responses are already written I imagine.
No overt reaction, and let the US et al expend itself by over reach and alienate everyone.
No, it’s not that PCR can’t see that patience and stoicism are virtues…
PCR’s argument is that America has gone so stupid, that it sees patience and stoicism as a weakness, and a weakness that must be exploited.
So in PCR’s opinion, the only thing America, being a thug and a bully. will ever understand is a very hard punch in the face, after which PCR believes America, being made up of true cowards will finally back off.
So it’s akin to a cultural difference/divide in understanding.
So while Russia feels that stoicism and calm rational discourse are beneficial and are hoping that America sees that… the reality is that America speaks a completely different language and mindset, and actually interpret Russian meekness as a sign that Russia is backing down because Russia is weak and America has the upper hand. So PCR is encouraging Russia to stop speaking ‘Russian’ and start speaking ‘American’ so that the Americans actually understand what is being said.
Whether his suggestion will turn out well or not, is unknown. PCR is betting that the USA are cowards who will actually back down once confronted. But this is a gamble, as the USA might not be cowards, but just plain suicidally crazy.
When a nation devolves into pushing homosexuality, transgenderism and all manner of insanity as virtues, this is usually a sign that you are dealing with something that’s insanely evil, and normal discourse no longer works, thus diplomacy is at an end.
Just as you can’t rationalize with the far-left who think male and female organs don’t exist and if you think they do you should be gassed in an internment camp for hurting the feelings of those who do, then the only language such a thing understands is – force. Because dialogue and rationality is over. Though that itself is a gamble, because jsut as many who are transgendered or homosexual are prone to violence, self-harm and suicide, they also wouldn’t mind taking the rest of the world down into Hell with them if push came to shove.
But, just curious. What if Russia had stepped in forcefully very early in Syria like it did a few years after it started. I have always wondered if hundreds of thousands of lives would have been saved and basically the infrastructure too? Why not try to save Iran by warning off the US and Israel forcefully before they attack? I just wonder if it could work. I feel for the Iranian people. I just wish they didn’t have to go it alone, even if they may be fully capable in the end to succeed in defeating the great Satan.
People hate to be saved.
Name me countries grateful to USSR for being aved from Third Reich. Will you name a dozen? a pair?
Name me nations grateful to Russian Empiure for being saved of “color revolutions” of 19th century, will you find any?
I too feel for the Iranian people. I pationately hope they are “fully capable in the end to succeed in defeating the great Satan”.
But “lesser Satan” how they call Russia is not warring their wars for them.
It was Soviet folly and hopefully we got cured of it.
I do not think your question to be well-thought.
First of all, the Russian governement only has a responsibility towards Russia and its people. It is not as if Putin could do anything he wanted; the will and needs of the Russian people had to be respected.
• Second, it is not as if Russia had nothing else to do; to this day, Russia tries to recover from the disaster that was the 90s.
• Third, being an uninvited hero is a thankless job; just remember how Russia was treated for defeating Nazism. In fact,
• Fourth, the Middle-East is a crazy complex web of shifting alliances; without some proper agreements from Syria and Iran, Russia could not have gotten involved. Which happened when General Soleimani went in Moscow in 2015.
• Finally, as the second biggest holder of the planet’s nuclear stockpile, it has an overriding responsibility of being much more wise and prudent than, say, Germany or Turkey. Greater strength means greater responsibility.
What is also so dangerous is the Empire of Chaos seems to be splitting at the seams and thus doubly dangerous.
First Trump threatens to destroy sacred sites of the Shia. Then someone denies this and then he just doubles down. Then one General says “sure, we’ll leave Iraq per norms of international law” to which another General says “Not so fast!”
I don’t think that Russia has any choice as to whether it gets involved or not. But quiet, firm words are probably being spoken behind diplomatic leak proof doors at this moment. One can hope
Thank you, Dr. Roberts, and Saker, for your invaluable posts. It is true even more so now.
I offer the following Foreign Affairs link, with the headlines:
“The U.S. Public Still Doesn’t Want War With Iran”
“According to recent polling data, the majority of Americans blame Trump’s policies for heightened tensions with Iran—and the killing of Suleimani won’t change that.”
I appreciate the Saker for publishing PCR’s dissenting view.
PCR: Putin’s caution about missile defenses?
Iran turned down the offered S-400s. The S-300s were a complicated purchase that lingered and then were tied to UNSC sanctions. Russia did what it always does, it protects Russia first.
I think the road to safety for Iran is through the SCO, not bilateral alliance which is not Russian statecraft. Nor is it Chinese way to protect itself. The array of nations to stop the US and its coalitions/NATO force structures has to include India and Pakistan, which SCO does.
Russia and China have already helped protect North Korea against the US aggression. It won’t be something obvious to the onlookers, but they have clearly indicated they will not allow any devastating attack on Iran. We see in the UNSC that the two coordinate to protect Iran from US efforts to bring heavy sanctions from the UNSC.
How they stop a military attack is probably based on what retribution Iran takes or is blamed for taking.
I think the retribution will be by distant proxy, most likely the Taliban. Most likely costing the US in Afghanistan. Most likely by simply giving them MANPADS and missiles and let the Taliban kill Americans. The secondary place for retribution is Iraq. There are myriad ways and groups that can kill American troops there. And finally, the AFRICOM zone is already afire with US special forces in many nations there. A surge of sponsored activity for the coming months could become routine, making a daily death toll of US forces partial payback Some money and some weapons is small cost for Iran to get results.
Low intensity, asymmetrical “blood letting” is the way this revenge will begin.
Larchmonter445 I am in strong agreement with you.
The most humiliating defeat for the US is being systematically expelled from the ME without a shot being fired. I am not a peacenik, I truly hate the US military and personally would love its bloody submission and a high corpse toll, but that is fantasy; the reality is already forming, which is to restore international law and peace, by applying force gently and decisively — craftsmanship rather than seldge hammer demolition.
Moving onto to Africa, hopeful already in process, but differently configured, and Latin America seems to be on the rebound. My own country Australia is at this moment hopelessly in thrall with its master, but actual loyalty to the monster is tissue thin.
The real battle is what happens afterwards, dealing with the war criminals, the massive fraud, and flattening the crazy and inept professional managerial system. I add this because the political objective is the military option, and as always the preconditions + the objective selects the means and poses the solution.
Notice how all these terror groups are being tied to Iran in MSM when everybody knows they are all Turk and Saudi created and financed groups.
What does Taliban have to do with Iran.
Notice how author insinuates the conection.
The US and its allies have fallen into the trap expressed by Frederick the Great “He who defends everything defends nothing”. Patience is the key and as such the Empire will wear itself down expecting attacks everywhere and being on high alert everywhere.
I would agree with your comment “Low intensity, asymmetrical “blood letting” is the way this revenge will begin.” I would furthermore expect it would be most effective in Africa. In the case of Iraq, the best path forward would to quit providing logistical support to the hundreds of US and allied bases. By directing all Iraqi’s to quit delivery of supplies to the invaders (including the Green Zone) would rapidly force them to abandon Iraq.
As for UAE and Saudi Arabia (KSA), their war of aggression in Yemen would serve as a focal point for the destruction of their economies via technical assistance to the Houthi’s in the form of missile and drone technology transfer, Manpads, and IED’s. Such action against KSA/UAE would liberate Yemen and force their abandonment of ISIS and the hundreds of other terrorists groups they have funded. This weakening of KSA/UAE has advantages to Russia as there has recently been an increase in ISIS attacks in Chechnya.
As a final caution: Putin is visiting Turkey on January 8th to mark the opening of the Turkstream pipeline. Given the Empire’s history of taking out leaders in Donbass,Turkey, Iraq, etc., it would be wise for Putin to be extra cautious!!!
I have an excellent understanding of Nuclear war effects and do not wish to have to try to survive the aftermath.
Missile cruiser ‘Marshal Ustinov’ Project 1164 ‘Atlas’ came to Istanbul for the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Turkey.
This is a truly excellent post. In particular, cutting off supplies to the Green Zone is perfect. Cutting power to the Green zone would be excellent as well. Literally starve them out.
Several posters have touted the benefit of asymmetrical warfare to manage this crisis. This is a wise move. We can look at recent history and it reveals how Putin’s mastery of patience and timing has delayed warfare by the Anglo-Zio’s against Russia for several years now. This is less stressful, I believe, than when the airliner was shot down over Ukraine. I could probably cite one or two dozen more incidents of provocation against Russia that failed. This is another one of such incidents. A grandstanding dramatic move of some declaration of a formal alliance is unnecessary and counter productive. Payback will happen in such a way we will never know or hear about. I have no doubt Iran is being given fantastic advice by Russia as we speak. The Iranian response has not been a knee-jerk one, they remain calm. This bodes well.
Larchmonter445 v.sharp indeed! SCO hey? We’ll keep the mystery package for later…
This, though a great lost and human tragic, is not exactly un-scripted… Peace
I can only think of Syria, President Assad and so many syrians expressing their deep appreciation, thanks and love for Russia, her beautiful sons and President Putin for saving their great nation from the great Satan and it’s minions.
Say what you may about PCR, but overall he is right.. not just in regards to this article but in many of his past writings. Obviously he won’t ever write something that’ll make EVERYONE agree with him, that’s pretty much impossible, no one can do that, but overall he is correct. Let me explain what I mean…
I specifically refer to the part in this article where he states that war depends on Israel. Folks, we must admit that Israel has been behind some of the worst that we’ve seen coming out of the Middle East… just look at Palestinians and their decades of suffering, look at the numerous bombings on Syria, don’t forget they bombed Iraq in the 80, how about all the false flag attacks that have been happening since 1948, and the list goes on…
The truth of the matter is that the Muslims aren’t rabid people. Just like the Christians, the Muslims also fought and killed for earthly pleasures (conquest of land and resources) but it’s always been upfront. You knew who it was. They howed nd declared themselves. The Israeli’s on the other hand always attack at night, from behind, hide behind whatever they believe can protect them, and always deny everything.
This murder of General Soleimani and co is most likely something orchestrated by the Israeli’s. Whether they gave the US the coordinates or whether they themselves pulled the trigger we may never know, but I highly doubt that Trump woke up one morning and decided to blow up Soleimani. Trump may be taking the hits but I firmly believe he is not the one who came up with the idea.
So what makes things very scary is that now we are inches from possible REAL war, not just proxy but real war that could bring down entire countries and entire world’s economies, simply because that one peoples who hide behind stuff have the possibility to stage a major false flag.
If that thought doesn’t worry you, I don’t know what could!
P.S. this is not an anti-semitic rant, and most of what I wrote is not directed at the day to day people of israel, rather at their leaders who for decades have wreaked havoc in their quest for their ‘mythological lebensraum’.
It matters precious little whether or not the execution of Soleimani was Trumps idea. Trump, as commander in chief authorised the killing and so he is to blame for this supremely reckless act.
In all fairness, he should be prosecuted for murder, but of course this won’t happen. He has though, made himself a very real target for some avenging angel.
Just as likely, Trump could fall victim to a false flag event, perhaps carried out by or on behalf of those seeking war with Iran.
Trump needs to keep his eyes open at all times and get used to never resting easy.
Uneasy sleeps the head that wears the crown.
The egomaniac selected the sadistic hyenas that advise him; it is irrelevant whether he as an individual is to be blamed. the blame reaches back over the years to every israhell unconditional supporter from every corner.
The elites, the conspirators, the deep state, the shadow governments et al exists precisely because it’s hard to put a face to them. If they come out in the open, say by annoucing themselves to the world, with fanfare and naming themselves “Take Over the World Grand Alliance” – they immediately become a valid target.
There’s an MMO called EVE Online where players, on a daily basis skirt the definition of the game rules. The makers of the game, CCP are usually coy at setting certain rules in stone to mitigate abuse by players. By allowing a certain amount of grey area in the rules, it enables them to evaluate on per case basis player exploits. This keeps the players guessing.
tl;dr Any formal alliances in the Axis of Resistance = bad idea.
I don’t understand why so many are quick to dismiss what Dr. Roberts has to say. Does anyone doubt that Israel is a major player in these events? I do believe that it is much bigger than Israel but they are a big part of the mix. Does anyone doubt that Russia and China are also targets of the empire and that they wouldn’t want to move some of their killer hordes up into Russia? Look what they did in Ukraine! Are we really to believe all those missile shields near Russia are to defend against Iran? And the missile shield in South Korea is to defend against North Korea and not China?
At least the elements of what Paul Craig Roberts mentions are accurate. He is trying to find a way to prevent the inevitable.
As to the U.S. now preparing to leave Iraq, what is that about selling someone some swampland? There will likely be an event and they will not leave. They have zero intention of leaving. They can’t leave. They must control the oil and resources all over the world. So no, Trump is not a genius using reverse psychology or playing 5D chess to get the troops out. He is a narcissistic idiot with delusions of personal grandeur.
Craig Mouldey “At least the elements of what Paul Craig Roberts mentions are accurate. He is trying to find a way to prevent the inevitable.”
Debate is critical, Roberts presents a sound view, and so does the Saker, it is not a contest, but an effort to find historical truth, which really needs a lot of minds and differences to work through.
Thank you for the reminder, I found with Roberts merely the need to qualify not argue against.
One important comment PCR makes is:
“The American neoconservatives want Iran in chaos, because then the chaos can be exported into the Muslim regions of the Russian Federation with the purpose of causing sufficient internal turmoil to remove Russia as a constraint on US unilateralism.”
and that is a million dollar argument.
As Michael Hudson explained it is the economics and US economy without the free resources of Iran and Russia is definitely going down very fast very soon. Especially the two countries are the biggest threat to USD.
And so yes it is a time to show your cards Russia specifically. Personally i do not have hope on China.
yeah that is a good analysis – but as usual PCR is calling for Russia to go to war for someone else…Poor Iran. When he says Putin’s caution – you have to wonder if Putin is an Israeli agent with that kind of caution. But maybe because of his (Putin’s) mistake not giving Iran what it needs to defend itself, he will come to their rescue…but I heard just two days ago – Boko Haram in Africa is getting stronger and stronger and the corrupt Chad government – along with the corrupt Nigerian government — but Chad specifically – has said it will no longer be fighting Boko Haram. If that is the case, then Boko Haram may set up a Cailphate in Nigeria/Chad. With that in place, and no General Solieimani to brain-storm defense, and no US army (supposedly) fighting ISIS in the Middle East, this whole planet could get taken over by this insane group that is truly Satanic.
I tend to regard boko haram, al shabat as the black equivalent of isis/al quaida. They’re set loose to guarantee continued presence of africom in Africa, protecting the seizure of natural resources. I may be wrong, but it is suspicious.
From Catherine Austin Fitts surely a must read!!!!
Ever notice that in in the United States the immediate result of Presidential impeachments is a significant increase in money disappearing and the drums of war?
Someone is trying to start WW III. Reading Shahak will inform your thinking on this topic and what we might do to prevent it. In my opinion, step one is to outlaw dual passport citizens from holding positions in the US Congress or Administration. Step two, until we do, all dual passport citizens should be recused from discussions or votes that benefit the country of their other passport(s).
As to the responsible dispora in Beverly Hills and on Wall Street, my question is why the children of the Southern States should die so that you can own and control the private equity on the Silk Road? Seems like a bad trade to me.
Israel Shahak is this week’s Hero of the Week – a brave and brilliant man.
What is Fitts trying to say? That Jewish bankers are ditching America for China so they can be a part of the Belt and Road? That sounds preposterous. Does she have any proof?
In my opinion Mr. Roberts has no understanding as to the degree of insanity in the Apartheid state. Japan attacked the US in WW2 because of their certain knowledge God Was On Their Side. This despite them having no chance at all if God didn’t intervene for them.
Guess what the attitude is in the pissant state:
As for more tangible support, they can contentedly chant to themselves this takeoff of some British jingoism by Hilaire Belloc:
“Whatever happens, we have got
The Donald’s stones, and they have not.”
Epstein’s activities with hidden video cameras corralled a whale of a lot of people into doing what they were told, and when they were told. It seems likely Trump was one of those folks.
There are four historic events that really matter for today’s USD and the modern-day US economy.
First, in 1971 Nixon decided that nations that had lent money to the US by buying US “treasury” bonds could no longer redeem those bonds for physical gold. Nixon was forced to do this because for several years US taxpayers could no longer pay “up front” for the US’s wars for war-corporations’ profit and worldwide de facto USD “reserve currency” hegemony. (Taxpayers still can’t pay up front.) Therefore, the US had (has) to “borrow” the money from other nations by selling to them US treasury bonds which those nations could at their maturity return to the US in exchange for either more paper or, most importantly, physical gold. In short, because the US did not have enough physical gold to send to those nations who wanted gold rather than more paper, again, Nixon was literally forced to do what he did or stop making war on the world. Of course he chose the former.
Second, because the US economy would have collapsed without perpetual war and the economically-necessary military-congressional-industrial complex to fight it, something other than gold to “back up” the now-fiat USD had to to be found and a few desperate years later one was — the petro-dollar. It is very important to understand its origin
because it and the ensuing “Carter Doctrine”
explain most of the US’s military behavior around the world, and in particular, recently in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Somalia.
On October 4, 2017, for the first time ever, the Saudi King flew to Moscow and met with the head of the Russian Federation, who just happened to be Vladimir Putin.
The King’s trip sent an earth-shaking, absolutely clear message to the US Elite, as well as to the US President, who just happened to be Donald Trump. Nine days after that unprecedented visit, on October 13, Trump announced that Iran was violating the JCPOA– the Iran nuclear deal
even though Iran was NOT violating the terms of that painstakingly negotiated and detailed agreement.
The King’s visit to Russia and Trump’s immediate action was no mere coincidence. After that visit, Tump and the US financial Elite were is outright panic mode.
Third, the “Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008” (EESA) — the act that prevented the Elite from suffering losses and created the TBTF banks:
Although there are many important, unprecedented actions allowed/required by that act, for the present purpose, the following from Section 112 is most important:
“SEC. 112. COORDINATION WITH FOREIGN AUTHORITIES AND CENTRAL BANKS.
The Secretary shall coordinate, as appropriate, with foreign financial authorities and central banks to work toward the extablishment of similar programs by such authorities and central banks. To the extent that such foreign financial authorities or banks hold troubled assets as a result of extending financing to financial institutions that have failed or defaulted on such financing, such troubled assets qualify for purchase under section 101.”
Just exactly how much of this unprecedented, completely-experimental “coordination” between foreign financial authorities and central banks is taking place this very day and just exactly what is their goal? We can make a pretty good guess by reading what influential US VIP George Kennan wrote several decades ago:
“…..we have about 50% of the world’s wealth but only 6.3% of its population. This disparity is particularly great as between ourselves and the peoples of Asia. In this situation, we cannot fail to be the object of envy and resentment. Our real task in the coming period is to devise a pattern of relationships which will permit us to maintain this position of disparity without positive detriment to our national security. ……..We need not deceive ourselves that we can afford today the luxury of altruism and world-benefaction.
We should cease to talk about vague and — for the Far East — unreal objectives such as human rights, the raising of the living standards, and democratization. The day is not far off when we are going to have to deal in straight power concepts. The less we are then hampered by idealistic slogans, the better.
We should recognize that our influence in the Far Eastern area in the coming period is going to be primarily military and economic. ……… It is my own guess, on the basis of such study as we have given the problem so far, that Japan and the Philippines will be found to be the corner-stones of such a Pacific security system and if we can contrive to retain effective control over these areas there can be no serious threat to our security from the East within our time. Only when we have assured this first objective, can we allow ourselves the luxury of going farther afield in our thinking and our planning.”
Fourth, after having experienced firsthand the US’s post-WWII utopia, Russia, China and Iran and some other nations have recently made their own agreements which involve something called the “petro-yuan”, physical gold
and an alternative to the SWIFT system:
What should now be obvious even to cadavers is the wildly-flailing desperation of the US Elite and their political slaves in Washington, the European Parliament and in the capitols of their various vassal states. The EESA was/is the granite monument of that desperation for the entire world to “admire”.
The de-industrialized, hollowed-out, run-down, perpetual-war-based US economy and USD-hegemony are now, for the first time since the end of WWII, being seriously challenged by other increasingly powerful nations’ economies and their currencies and their weapons. Things are no longer going the Superpower US’s way. China’s economy is perhaps even now larger than that of the US.
To sum up, we are living in the competition of all competitions and its outcome will determine the place of the US economy and the strength and ultimate fate of the Fed’s perhaps quadrillions of printed-out-of-thin-air USD in the international community. IMO, the only important question is whether the US Elite will “go gentle into that good night” and develop a peace-based economy, or is it going to force the world into a no-win nuclear shootout at the OK Corral. The US’s latest international crime makes me think the latter is being seriously considered. For all the above essentially financial reasons, I think that Trump is following the diktat of MbS much more so than that of NuttyYahoo.
Thank you for your valuable input about the economic/financial rationale for Usrael’s depredations. As said repeatedly by PCR, Michael Hudson and many others, the US (before becoming Usrael) by dint of WWII rose as the dominant power of the capitalist world and, by hegemonic necessity, had to embark on militaristic policies learned from the British Empire’s experiences and expand its own, already in the making since the Monroe doctrine. But maintaining an empire costs a lot of money and even the US in its heyday could not afford the expense; therefore it has to extract wealth from the colonies.
But not even wealth-extraction (read robbery) could pay for the extravagant display of military hardware, hence the need to create a bottomless source of revenue by imposing a tribute on all countries trade (reserve and trade currency, Treasury iou’s). Add to that the rise of the Jewish Mafia financial component to the US political class, and you end up with an ideological construct (which I name Usrael) being a mixture of Capitalism and Zionism on steroids or Judeocon Fascism.
On its own, I believe that the original US might have had a kernel of moral decency to change course and become a normal state. But now, as Usrael, it carries within the Zionist dogmatism of a chosenite imbued with exceptionalism and odious animosity against humanity.
Ishkabibble, it is because of comments like yours that I read The Saker daily. Thanks.
Yesterday, in the Christmas mass in Moscow (shown live by Sputnik), it was impossible not to notice how sad President Putin seemed to be. From his sadness, I understood that the present moment is indeed very dangerous.
Let’s hope that a nuclear war will never come. Your powerful display of historical data and persuasive argument convinced me that, at the moment, the restraint of all the authorities in office in the world is absolutely essential. Russia, China and Iran, as the most powerful nations of the opposition to the US belligerence, must not be pulled into a war that may become nuclear.
Let’s hope sanity somehow prevails in 2020. It is going to be a year of many challenges…
This thing is etched in the sand not even the wind can change it,our military is not the military they like to brag about, N.Korea,Nam,Iraq,Iraq and Afghanistan has showed/is showing this,as China once remarked it is a paper tiger and it is.
Our military hasen’t fought a foe since WW2 except third world countries and they could’nt beat those,Korea a draw,Nam a defeat,Iraq lets call it quits,Afghanistan please come to the table. and they lack the guts to go up against countries like Russia or China.We don’t know what’s going on back of the scene but if I was Russia and China,I would warn those in Washington that Iran was a red line that they better not cross,Russia should let Iran have as many S-400’s as they need or any other hardware they wanted.!!
There is a better than even chance they’ve already done both those things. Consider this story:
Iran May Have the S-400 in All But Name
As for other hardware, Iran doesn’t need an advanced tank force. (though army commanders always want new toys) They can’t afford a fancy air force, but when the current force wears out they’ll need some respectable replacements. They’ve concentrated their spending on assisting Hezbollah (expensive!) and their missile forces. What they can use most from Russia is advice in the details of fighting a modern war against the Empire. I expect they’re getting plenty of that.
The rest of your post needs work. A LOT of work.
I don’t see much of a “disagreement” between PCR’s and The Saker’s positions concerning the Usrael vs The World and, in particular, the current Usrael-manufactured crisis, only some slight divergence of emphasis in response to Usrael’s mad-dog behaviour.
PCR has formed a definitive realisation that Usrael is a two-headed Frankenstein-like monster made up of Jewish evil and US grunt. Its malevolence is its essence and is incapable of being unmade or remade, hence it must be destroyed. Attempts at reforming Usrael by restraint and containment by leash and muzzle are doomed to failure and even a cage won’t do. Letting the ogre roam the world and gorge on its occupants without hindrance will inevitably doom humanity. He proposes that the able-bodied ents (Russia, China, Iran, NK and a few others) stand-up resolutely to the monster and fight him if necessary. PCR has discovered the Achilles heel of the monster and that his facade of of invincibility hides a coward schoolyard bullyboy. The energy that drives the Ogre is greed for wealth and power and his blood is a mixture of oil and $liquidity, hence perform a venesection or restrict the supply of those ingredients and it will come to an end.
The Saker thinks that Usrael may yet respond to less letal treatment and still has some redeeming features if it can be broken into its constituent parts, that is, unmaking Frankenstein. After all, the US component had a Republican birth and baptism as a Christian soul, hence deep down the evil side may yet be exorcised from its body and, with Putinesque legerdemain guidance, restored to sanity or, at least, inducing the beast to a docile walk to the morgue. Besides, there is the feared danger that Usrael, in its maddening phase of decline and death, will Samson-like in its madness bring down the earthly dome.
Which one would you pick as the desirable cure to the danger posed by the Usrael monster?
Off the cuff: isolation.
A non-formal alliance/ coalition, between those nations who are currently the prime targets for destruction by the predator force, assuring sufficient capacity to if necessary obliterate the opponent’s most offensive military assets, mainland power centres, essential intelligence and political and military structures. This would of course imply the end of present day USA statehood whilst potentially allowing a reset to be undertaken by remaining, sufficiently sane/ non-affected US populations (I know they are there, in large numbers) to tap into their resources and rebuild the country, likely on the lines of some form of confederation moulded on the principles of a bygone era. I sense that this is perhaps where Paul’s passions lie, and, in thruth, who could blame him for entertaining such notions.
This will isolate the Jewish state which in my view would readily muster up the pragmatism and negotiating skills to find a modus vivendi to live and survive alongside its immedate and wider neighbours in the region.
Totally agree with Dr. Roberts
Russia doesn’t want to see the US fleet in the Caspian Sea, so if this threat presents itself, she might act in some ‘Crimea moment.’
But short of this threat, the situation is like with Ukraine being occupied by the US, the large parts of the population wanted to be occupied, and fighting against them wasn’t an option.
Look how many of the “Resistance” gone over to the US side. They are selling out their ancient culture, pride, religion and each other. They clearly reject China with its road and wealth building exercise. So, this is not about gaining wealth, per se. It’s some kind of spiritual rot. Who knows, maybe next year they will start staging pride parades with the the JCS.
Elijah J. Magnier plainly states that it’s the Fragmentation in the Axis of Resistance led to Soleimani’s death.
The US struck Iran at the heart of its pride by killing Major General Soleimani. But the “axis of the Resistance” killed him before that. This is how:
When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assassinated the deputy head of the Military Council (the highest authority in the Lebanese Hezbollah, which is headed by its Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah), Hajj Imad Mughniyah in Damascus, Syria, Hezbollah could not avenge him until today.
When Trump gave Netanyahu Jerusalem as the “capital of Israel”, the “Axis of the Resistance” did not move except by holding television symposia and conferences verbally rejecting the decision.
When President Trump offered the occupied Syrian Golan Heights to Israel and the “Axis of Resistance” did not react, the US President Donald Trump and his team understood that they were opposed by no effective deterrent. The inaction of the Resistance axis emboldened Trump to do what he wants.
And when Israel bombed hundreds of Syrian and Iranian targets in Syria, the “Axis of the Resistance” justified its lack of retaliation by the typical sentence: “We do not want to be dragged along by the timing of the engagement imposed by the enemy,” as a senior official in this axis told me.
In Iraq shortly before his death, Major General Soleimani was complaining about the weakening of the Iraqi ranks within this “Axis of the Resistance”, represented by the Al-Bina’ (Construction) Alliance and other groups close to this alliance like Al-Hikma of Ammar al-Hakim and Haidar al-Abadi, formerly close to Iran, that have gone over to the US side.
“At this time, it is up to Israel whether or not war occurs between the US and Iran. Israel very much wants this war as a means of putting Iran and Syria into chaos, thus leaving Hezbollah isolated and unsupplied. Then Israel can succeed in occupying southern Lebanon.”
PCR, I think you are wrong on that.
It is up to Iran if war occurs or not with US.
It is up to Israel to decide if they want to become another front in that war.
You state: “Polls of the American public indicate that anti-Iranian propaganda has succeeded.” But that does not mean war with Iran is American public’s choice either. Again, that is Iran’s choice.
Honestly, your speculation or anyone else’s does not matter right now because Iran is the one with all the power to make that choice.
All the noise, threats etc… cloud the truth. Iran has the power to bring war to the U.S. It is Iran’s choice.
I am sure you have seen the size of the crowds for Soleimani’s funeral.
This is Iran’s 9/11 – no, that is an inadequate understatement.
What choice do you think Iran will make?
Iran built its own capable AD system which includes the S300 like Bavar 373 and point defenses. Iran never wanted to rely on Russian ADs. Odds are there was a tech transfer.
Here is the thing about saturation bombing, Iran can take out most regional US bases pretty quickly and that severely limits US options. Russia and China will warn Iran of a single missile let alone of a saturation attack. All indications are that Iran can cripple US satellites and that also limits the US. Then you have the issue of the hosts. I guarantee most of our gulf arab friends will bail and restrict our forces if they are threatened and especially after one is hit with Iranian missiles. Ditto for Europe. They know this war is for Bibi and they wont support it beyond public statements.
Russia and China can not and will not let Iran fall because they would be next. They might use it to cripple the US though. My guess is both will show direct support if they feel a war is imminent. Its not. Trump is putting on a show because he is scared retaliation will embarrass him and threaten his reelection. He is about show. A war would make him look very bad..cant have that.
That said iran needs redundant, layered ADs like russia has and rather than work on nukes it behooves them, to get various hypersonic weapons beyond just ballistic missiles but Iran’s greatest deterrent is its ability to hit Haifa and Tel Aviv.
Dear Mr Craig Roberts,
Are you really sure Iran has no sufficient air defense capability against the incoming attack?
A year ago, Iran was able to capture electronically a US drone.
But, what do we know?
Here we have yet another Vietnam deja vu all over again…Shia (Iran and Northern Iraq) as the “Communists” and Sunni (Southern Iraq and ISIS) as the SVA “Anti-Communists”, and the thing that’s ultimately at stake is resource control, not political or religious ideologies. So, if China and Russia had made a formal defensive alliance to support the North Vietnamese fully with direct military power and not just a de facto everything-else-but-that, would the Vietnam War have been stopped? I’ll guess “Yes”, just as I’ll guess “Yes” in the current Iran-Iraq situation…I’d say that Dr. Roberts is correct…BUT…
Unfortunately, this is not going to happen…because, as was the case in Vietnam, direct warfare between states with the nuclear ability to mutually destroy each other is too fearful a prospect, mainly because the Chinese and Russians are aware that the US, especially current leadership, may very well be crazy enough to push the button. It will remain a Vietnam scenario and the only winners will be the MIC defense contractor players, both in the US and in Russia-China.
The Saker is also spot-on that if the US, with plenty of pressure from Israel (out if its own security and ME empire motives), decides to get itself sucked-in, this will be the last straw for the US economy and its empire, but that will ultimately prove to be a very good thing for the people of US and all of humanity. I hate to see the pain and suffering, the destruction and waste of this process, but it’s got to run its course. If, miraculously, the US is not sucked-in yet again, then that may be a sign that we’re finally ready to end the cycle of us-vs-them competition for earth resources and to try figuring out how we can build a harmonious world…not counting on that but it’s a nice dream.
“us-vs-them competition for earth resources”
Really? I think it is more profound than that. I think the banksters can already get any resource they want, and do not care about that.
The banksters want their NWO (real power), and are ready to dump the USA for it.
The question is: will they risk to dump Israel as well for it?
Well, it’s true that the banksters (I assume this means the Anglo-Zionist financial elites?) may indeed be operating totally above it all, the defacto true global supra-government, and always net-profitably manipulating things via “us-vs-them” games, but also it’s true that these banksters may not really be in full control of the whole game now…the Chinese and Russians may truly be their competition (arguably just another bunch of banksters, another mafia or a newly emergent amoeba ready to compete for the resources the banksters now control), and anyone who threatens their power by promoting socialistic government.
(Shall we say that Bankster = financial system controller, and in modern monetary economics, that means the brain that runs the whole system?)
What is for sure is that a real understanding of the situation, the whole game of geopolitics and global economics requires that we throw off the blinders of ideologies and religions, and look at things in terms of human social-economic entities competing for or striving to maintain/increase earth resource control…power.
As to whether the banksters, the brain, would dump Israel, absolutely Yes, but only if the world had already reached a point where oil is no longer an essential resource for the economy to function. That day is still a long ways off, not technologically, but in terms of investments that must be made to implement it and the strength of resistance by status quo power elements. If we had made a dedicated, all-out, and unrelenting effort to be free of our oil addiction and to transition to efficiency and renewables back nearly 50 years ago when the first OPEC oil embargo hit, we wouldn’t be in the current mess and Israel wouldn’t be an essential ME beachhead to keep the economy running, the financial brain happily pumped with endorphins.
The two links below suggest that the continued reliance on carbon based energy resources may well be becoming financially problematic and could also be a factor (along with alternatives to the petro-dollar scam/Swift System) which is undermining the strength to maintain the projection of power of those whose mindset is based on the limited notion of being the biggest, baddest and bestest:
“we throw off the blinders of ideologies and religions, and look at things in terms of human social-economic entities competing for or striving to maintain/increase earth resource control…power.”
Actually, I do not think the banksters (the people that control the central banks network and the currencies) need Israel or any other state to control the oil or any richness. They just print money and allocate it to whichever bank/government/entity they are pleased with; they finance wars without limits, and create crisis as they wish. They are citizens of the world. Those people were in charge of the British empire that they dumped, and are now in charge of the US empire that they would love to dump with the dollar for a world entity/currency. They just need to convince the Chinese and the Russian, and might use for that one of their favorite tool: a world war, or a world financial crisis.
It may be that behind the scenes Russia is attempting to mediate between Iran, the US, and (I know it is pointless) Israel.
If that mediation fails to make progress, maybe then then Iran and Russia will formalize an alliance
The Russians have already declared Iran to be an ally.
This is more than sufficient at this stage.
Anything more would be unnecessarily divisive .
Just passing this one along:
September 30, 2015, marked the beginning of Russian intervention in Syria. Prior to this, Russia appeared to be doing nothing, and as well as Saker gave up on Russia doing anything. John McCain even said “Russia will not act” – and near the collapse of Assad, Russia swooped in and turned the tide and handed the Americans a stunning military defeat.
Just look at the maps, Iran is part of Russia’s underbelly. Iran is China’s gas station. You all know the Chinese don’t like to talk smack, and usually neither do the Russians. But when it’s show time, they’ll show up, but not until you folks think you’ve won.
“The American press will demand Iranian blood and so will most of Trump’s constituency. As Trump has already committed himself to a response, he will have to deliver.”
I think Trump doesn’t care about what he said, he denies plausibility all the time, with enthusiasm. He can say white one day, and black the next one. He just doesn’t care, as long as he gets what he wants. And it won’t prevent him to get reelected if the people like what he did in the end.
it seems that the thousands of word from Putin on the subject of agreements being upheld for the sake of international peace and supporting the sovereignty of nations, are lost on you Paul, the only thing you understand is military alliance.
The world has to move on from using threat of war to avoid war, its not only stupid but ineffective.
Military alliances are a bad idea currently and the leaders of Russia and China know it.
Un navire amphibie U S se dirige vers Suez après l’annulation de manoeuvres militaires, avec 200 hommes à bord et 6 B52 se positionnent à Diego Garcia ! Est-ce que tout ne se met pas en place pour attaquer l’Iran ? Il faudrait effectivement que la Russie et la Chine soient solidaires. Le but du jeu serait-il de laisser détruire l’Iran pour que les États-Unis s’épuisent ?
An amphibious ship U S heads for Suez after the cancellation of military maneuvers, with 200 men on board and 6 B52s position themselves in Diego Garcia! Isn’t everything in place to attack Iran? Russia and China should indeed be united. Would the aim of the game be to let Iran be destroyed so that the United States could run out?
I agree that military alliance are often disfunctional, but indubitably if Iran strengthened his aerial defences (regardless of their actual and effective capacities) this would help to deter the attempted aggression
The stage is now set for Trump’s assasination by his own intelligence agencies with extremely plausible deniability. Months of Russia gate and Ukraine gate has failed to get rid of Trump and we still have the same crooked intelligence leaders , Brenan Comey and so on, running free, spinning the msm.
One bullet/ plane crash can solve all their problems and a new subservient patsy can be installed as President.
Watch your back Donald.
P.S. How did that sucking up to Netanyahu work out for you
PCR claims that a formal defence alliance between Iran and Russia would dissuade attacks by USA and Israel on Iran.
He may be right! There are some who believe alliances are causes of world wars especially WWI, however it is worth noting that there was NO formal alliance between Serbia and Russia on the eve of WWI,. Had there been one, perhaps Austria-hungary would not have attacked Serbia and the entire war might have been avoided.
I agree that security through a multi-lateral organisation such as the SCO is better than perhaps a bilateral alliance between Iran and Russia. The issue is that SCO does not seem to have formalised contractual obligations to each other in case of attack. Also the SCO has an economic component, and Iran could not join because of sanctions…
PCRs analyses are enlightening and a pleasure to read.
My (rare) consent with PCR
I think almost exactly the same. Israel has now the possibility to start a war between US and Iran without having to ask the approval of POTUS, Pentagon or any other American institution. As they sought this opportunity for decades, they will certainly use it, and I think, use it very soon.
Iranians will not have the time to chose their response, jews will do it on their place (jews adore this, it’s very similar to the controlled opposition).
A false flag, something really BIG, bigger than 9/11, of course against civilian targets would do the job. (btw big blunder that Iran didn’t explicitly declare yet, that it would never hit civilian targets). Probably a chemical, biological attack or something similar would have also the benefit of using nukes right from the start as a “retaliation”.
They know what Saker knows and a lot of other people know: With conventional weapons, US would be the loser for sure with heavy casualties. If they would use nukes only thereafter it would be almost impossible to find a suitable, credible narrative, even for the western nutcases.
So my only hope is Iranians will answer very fast – it is the only possibility they have if they really want to have a choice. The enemy will not give them the time to realize the best option allover (this was the weak point in all the excellent analyses of Saker – time is always crucial), they should take the best option feasable in a few days!
I’m not sure I agree with the reasoning. What does a formalization bring on the table, really? If the will and the intent to share common objectives is there, there’s no need to formalize them, especially since the enemy is not a rational actor, and is not deterred by International laws or bodies, nor by any kind of rules.
@Ike. Re assassination; my thoughts exactly. Relative to the need for alliance, it occurs to me that if we take it as read that sanctions against Russia, Tarif wars with China, and Military actions against Iran are all three emanating from the same Imperialist source, it would follow that war is being waged against all three nations. That being so. it seems likely that these nations have recognised the fact and have already taken their dispositions accordingly. Just saying.
My opinions are almost always the same as PCR’s. I think his opinions are objective.
No need for alliances. Just send them anti-aircraft gear with crew. It would be good practice for the Russians. They did that in Vietnam.
That way, they will learn all about the F-35 – if they don’t know it already. :-)
Oil. The Chinese are among the most vulnerable to disruption of oil transport through Hormuz, so they can’t simply watch from a distance. Europe is als quite vulnerable.
Of course, the devastation a $400 barrel of oil would bring is hard to calculate.
The formal alliance that PCR calls for already exists. It’s known as SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Council).
Iran has applied for full membership.
I agree with Dr. Roberts. While Saker’s analysis is usually of a high order, it is some times tinged with what *ought* to happen if the universe was moral, no doubt driven by some conception of an other-worldly moral entity commonly known in English as “God”. Without getting involved in theological arguments about the existence of this entity and its motivations and actions, it seems that any sound analysis must depend on the way things are and not ought to be.
The bitter (if one is moral) reality is that the US empire is immensely powerful in effecting action against a nation state especially one that doesn’t have nuclear weapons. What the US neocons want in Iran is not to “win” but to reduce it to the level of Syria, Iraq and Libya which will take decades – if ever – to reach the cohesion and capabilities they had prior to their state being destroyed. A “win” for the US is not necessarily occupation of an “enemy” but a removal of any capability of the said “enemy” to project any kind of power beyond its borders and a broken state within. Chaos in the Middle East, far from being a failure of US neocon policy is an explicit aim given that this chaos not only defangs states from any independent action but allows both free action by Israel and the US in funding various groups within these states for their own purposes (eg the Kurds in the region are de facto US/Israeli vassals and are able to stymie central control of two nation-states – Iraq, Syria – and a potential fifth column for two others, Turkey and Iran).
In particular, radical Sunni groups can be bought, financed and directed towards the soft underbelly of Russia to wage asymmetrical warfare. Indeed the potential for these radical elements to infiltrate Russia’s Caucus regions was one of Putin’s states reasons – indeed his principal one – of why Russia needed to intervene in Syria.
The only way to deter the US empire is to form an explicit defensive alliance with nuclear states: the Warsaw Pact for example worked to contain NATO precisely because of that and the impact of its dissolution are apparently to all with Russia’s external security threat objectively worse than ever (even as a Putin has worked to shore up internal defenses).
But Russia can’t go it alone without China. China is much stronger internally than Russia – though it has its own underbelly in the form of the Uighurs – and it has so far been reluctant to project its military (if not its economic) might. China is the key, not Russia, to giving teeth to this alliance (Russia has the weapons technology, China has the money). And China needs to calculate its own self-interest in this.
The SCO is a vehicle that potentially allows for that. If Russia and China were to explicitly – versus implicitly – align with Iran both in terms of providing it defense as well as economic aid in the form of a comprehensive multi-year plan, that would be a game changer. Anything short of that would see Iran reduced to an Iraq, Libya of Syria – failed states.
Time of course is of the essence. The neocons are fully aware of all this and from their point of view there has been never a better time. Everyone can blame Trump including the EU (which is vassal to the US and has many internal problems from economics to demographics to sort out) but it won’t matter in a few years. After all who cares that the Bush administration lied: the reality is Iraq is now a failed state with infighting factions where the US operates with impunity.
Net: for all its bravado, Iran is on the precipice of becoming another failed state thanks to an inevitable US bombing campaign. Only an alliance with Russia and China – each acting for their own self-interest -can save it.