So it is confirmed. Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden will have what is announced as a “long” direct conversation (not face to face, but by a secure video link) this coming Tuesday. Considering the extreme tensions taking place between the US/NATO/EU and Russia, this event will be, by definition, a watershed moment, irrespective of its outcome. The two basic options are a) some kind of deal with be made b) nothing will come out of this meeting.
Personally, I am “cautiously pessimistic”, and I will explain why next.
Let’s look at what the two sides have been doing in preparation for this meeting:
The Empire has basically ratcheted up the tensions as high as possible, both by an avalanche of bellicose statements and by engaging in “petty harassment” exercises near the Russian border. The main (and sole) advantage of this pre-negotiations strategy is that it costs very little money while having a major PR effect. The two main disadvantages of this pre-negotiations strategy are that 1) they tend to paint you into a corner from which any concession, no matter how reasonable, can be turned into an “abject surrender to Putin” by your political enemies and 2) that the Russians know that all this sabre-rattling is only hot air and, if anything, a sign of weakness.
Russia has made some comparatively “stronger” verbal protests and mentioned “red lines” which the Empire which the latter has completely ignored. However, Russia has also made some actual military moves which have truly frightened the Empire, including the sudden flushing out into the Pacific or all the strategic submarines of the Pacific Fleet.
Here is the problem as I see it: “Biden” has allowed all sorts of russophobic nutcases to paint the Biden Administration into the exact same corner where the same russophobic nutcases stuck Trump: a place where no meaningful negotiations (i.e. negotiations which imply the willingness to make mutual concessions) are possible. All that Kabuki theater about “talking to Russia from a position of strength/force” kind of implies that the Russians will get scared and cave in to the Empire. The problem is that in the real world (as opposed the political Hollywood of the western propaganda machine), it is Russia which is in a very strong position while the US/NATO/EU are all in a position of extreme vulnerability. In other words, it is extremely unlikely that the Russians will make major concessions on anything (if only because Russia’s “great retreat” of endless concession to win time for preparations has now left Russia pretty much with her own back also against the wall). Of course, Russia does not want/need a war anywhere, so she is probably willing to make relatively minor concessions, but only political ones. In military terms, Russia is now “ready to go” and she will not stand down unless the Empire gives legally binding and verifiable concessions to guarantee Russia’s security on her western border (Putin has specifically said so).
Frankly, none of that is very complex: de-escalation and mutual confidence building measures have been developed by all sides for many decades now and there is no need to reinvent the wheel here. How to do that is easy and straightforward. But politically, I don’t know how “Biden” would respond to the MAGA nutcases in Congress who will accuse him of weakness, or even treason, if he does anything but continue to escalate towards an inevitable war: escalations can only be stopped by two means: negotiations or war. If the former is made impossible, the latter becomes inevitable.
Worse, there are pretty good signs that “Biden” is not fully controlling the Executive branch and that there are characters at the CIA, Pentagon and Foggy Bottom (lead by the totally rabid US Neocons) which actually want a war involving Russia and who believe that such a war would not imply a very high probability of going nuclear. Blinken, for example, strikes me as a kind of person which would make a great tailor or maybe an insurance salesman, but as a diplomat he is clearly clueless and “loser” written all over his face (ditto for that imbecile Stoltenberg or most EU politicians). Worst of all, these losers believe in their own superiority and think that they can talk to Putin like, say, Commodore Matthew Perry “talked” to the Japanese or how Reagan showed Grenada “who is boss”.
Finally, the upcoming planned “show of unity and force” (aka Summit for Democracy) will be seen by the Kremlin as a desperate attempt at hide the Empire’s real weakness (death, really) and to make it look as if the West still had the means to rule the planet. In reality, just Russia and China together are already much more powerful than all the colonies which Uncle Shmuel as summoned to this Summit, even if it is only two against 109 countries on the US side and that is the reality which this summit is designed to conceal from the public eye.
So no hope at all?
Well, not much. But, in theory, here is what could happen.
The US could agree to give Russia legal binding and verifiable security guarantees on her east, including a pull-back of Ukie forces in exchange for which, Russia could pull back some of her own forces. Deconfliction measures in the air and the seas could be agreed upon. Observer missions could be agreed upon and then deployed by both sides to verify the implementation of any agreements. On the political level, the US could order a dramatic reduction of western military involvement in the Ukraine in exchange for a Russian re-affirmation of the recognition of the Ukraine in her current borders, that is without Crimea and but the Donbass (in other words, the Kremlin would promise not to recognize the LDNR republics sovereign states). In theory, an international peacekeeping force could be set up in the “grey zone” between the LDNR and the Ukraine (that would require the Ukies to pull out from their current, and totally illegal, occupation of some locations in that zone). The nationality of these peacekeepers would have to be agreed by both sides.
[Sidebar: about the LDNR – please keep in mind that even if de jure the Kremlin does not recognize these republics, it has already basically done so de facto (especially with the latest change to the Russian laws on the economy). Also, remember that Taiwan is a country that is largely unrecognized, but which is clearly independent, at least for the time being. Finally, keeping the LDNR inside the Ukraine creates an anti-Ukraine which prevents the Nazi-run Ukraine from fully becoming an anti-Russia. So no, flag-wavers notwithstanding, agreeing not to recognize the LDNR would not be a “betrayal”, but only a card which must be played later in the game.]
Furthermore, Russia and the USA should establish a standing bilateral (yes, I agree with Nuland on the EU!) discussions mechanism to replace the useless and basically dead NATO-Russia Council. Other areas of discussion could include such self-evident issues as space, terrorism, immigration, energy, cybersecurity, the Arctic etc. and a full restoration of civilized diplomatic relations (which were totally sabotaged by both the Obama and Trump Administration). A deal could also be made about mutual non-interference or, at least, improve the current deconfliction between the USA and Russia in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere. And, of course, Russia could agree to a long term gas contract through the Ukraine in exchange for a full US acceptance of NS2.
Does that sound a little pollyannish to you?
It sure sounds pollyannish to me!
But I am not quite willing to declare it as absolutely impossible. Instead, I would simply say that such an outcome is unlikely but still possible.
The alternative is war with, at the low end, could be limited to some silly Ukie provocation (of the kind they have been regularly pulling off, and failing, for many years now) or, at the high end, to quickly escalate a full-scale (inter)continental war, probably one involving nukes.
Hope dies last, right?
The one thing which makes it possible for me to believe that a war can still be avoided is that besides the real hardcore nutcases, there are still some sober-minded officials in the USA (maybe Gen. Milley?) who understand not only that war is an unspeakable horror, but who ALSO understand that a US attack on Russia will result in a Russian counter-attack on the US itself. Specifically, it is now an official Russian position that if weapon X is fired at Russia or Russian forces, Russia will not only destroy that weapon and the system which delivered, but will also strike at the command headquarters from which the order to strike Russia was given, and that could be Kiev, Warsaw, Brussels or even Washington DC. I am quite sure that General Gerasimov explained that to General Milley in exquisite detail and I strongly suspect that Milley got the message. Let’s just hope that Milley can prevail over Lloyd Austin (who is clearly an incompetent imbecile used by the “war party” only as a disposable figurehead).
If not, then God help us all, because then war is inevitable.
I consider the current situation as the most dangerous the world has ever faced, this is even worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis or the US attacks against Iran (the murder of General Soleimani) or Syria. By nature, nurture, experience, and training I am an unrepentant pessimist. But, in this case, I still want to force myself into a stance of “cautious pessimism” meaning that, yes, the situation is terrible and seems unfixable, but I choose to believe that there still are enough sane people in the US to avoid the worst.
Still, I am acutely aware that the UK+3B+PU gang want war at all and any cost and that they are now setting the agenda in both the EU and NATO. The only actor which still could order them to stand down and shut the hell up would be the USA, but only one ruled by an Administration in real and actual command, not the senile aquarium fish collectively known as “Biden” which is in power (at least officially) right now.
We can also count on the MAGA-crazies to oppose any and all deals with Russia, no matter how urgently needed and self-evidently logical. The GOP has now become the united party for war doing exactly what the Dems did during the Trump years. In a way, the US political scene reminds me of the Soviet Union during and after Brezhnev – a political system which simply cannot produce a real leader, so all you see is terminal mediocrities trying as best they can to hide their own mediocrity and total lack of vision. A Ronald Reagan or a George H. W. Bush would have what it takes to talk to the Russians and get some results. Alas, none of the presidents since have had enough brains or spine to do anything constructive at all: all they did was to preside over first the destruction of the Empire followed by the destruction of the USA (at least as we knew it before Jan 6th).
The fact that our best (or, should I say, only) hope lies with Biden and “Biden” is a sad and very frightening reality. All we can do now is wait for Tuesday and pray that both Biden and “Biden” muster enough courage and (real) patriotism to bring the world back from the brink. It ain’t much, but that’s all we got.
So, what do you think will happen next?
PS: please make sure to also check Andrei Martyanov’s take on the situation here http://thesaker.is/andrei-martyanov-on-the-possibility-of-war/
Small side point, if US-Russia talks go bilateral (to replace the Nato-Russia council) the end result will be a stronger push to an EU defence separate or instead of Nato. This has been bubbling below the public for years now (and is a big reason for I’m more anti-Russian than you Rhetoric). The US needs to keep Nato together even if it means a token role in discussions. Besides the real War Party operatives will be using paid diplomats and paid politicians to do their work, so who cares is they are American paid puppets or European ones?
will be a stronger push to an EU defence separate or instead of Nato
VERY good point, thank you!
I wrote last we were discussing this subject:
Diplomatic ties between Russia and the US are being canceled.
Since then, many more Russian diplomats have been called home from America.
And Russia is planning to expel US diplomats from Russia. Tension cant get any worse.
And now a “secure video talk” between Putin and Biden?
First: Biden is a puppet. You can’t negotiate or come to an agreement with a puppet.
The Globalist Elite controlling the puppet wants their New world Order, and the whole human population be damned.
Taking into consideration the gigantic debts of the US and EU, and the fact that the dollar is becoming worthless, a US financial crash is now inevitable.
The Globalist Elite know it, and they are driving the west to war, to avoid the blame for the resulting western economic collapse. At this point, just talk of war between Russia and NATO could collapse the Western Banking system
Second: There is no such thing as a secure video link.
Parts of the conversation will be leaked, and used to either paint Putin as an aggressor or a wimp.
The talk will be used to inflame Russo phobia in America for war.
Third: There is no longer a military unity between the Anglo Saxon Empire and the EU.
This week Norway demanded that all US troops exit northern Norway. Stoltenberg and the Norwegian foreign minister know that NATO will soon fracture, into two alliances, and the former OTAN headquarter in Brussels will be the new Army headquarters of the revived 4th Holy Roman Empire (EU).
I’m sorry Andrei, the only thing left at this point, is brutal war.
So please bring you and your family into safety
An end-to-end encrypted tunnel between two trusted endpoints is basically secure. Which is exactly what they will use.
Yes in that sense it will be secure.
But both ends of the transmission will have the meeting on tape.
And I believe that Washington will manipulate the tape before presenting it to the western public.
They have created Fake news or direct lies before.
And they will do it again.
“First: Biden is a puppet. You can’t negotiate or come to an agreement with a puppet.”
But you can negotiate with the elite through the pupet.
Bianca wrote: “But you can negotiate with the elite through the puppet”.
First: Biden is so demented that he cant remember what he has to say or accept.
Second: The Elite have accepted this video meeting, because it puts them in a superior position over both Biden and Putin. Whatever Biden and Putin talks about the Elite can disregard after the meeting, by just calling Biden demented.
If the Elite wanted a honest negotiation, they would ask for a “secret” meeting with Putin, and afterwards dictate to their puppet what to do.
They are using the meeting to stall an open conflict until the spring. They want war, but on their terms.
The war will come but there will be no direct confrontation between Russia and Ukraine/Nato at this point in time – Russia is to strong to take heads on – Someone else will have to do their bidding, someone crazy enough and with a strong army to weaken Russia – guess who ?
Someone unpredictable, but with strong armed forces you say. Sweden? Australia? Tara-Tuva?
Dear Saker community.
I have found an Article on Zerohedge, citing CNN:
Biden Mulls Cutting Russia Off SWIFT Ahead Of Putin Call.
The CNN statement are so full of BS that it is a prime example of how fake news and propaganda is created.
I have used common text analysis to pinpoint how they create Fake news, and was inspired by Andrie to use:
Black text for the original text from CNN
Blue text for the original text from CNN. But statement which must alert the reader to be on guard.
Red text for my analysis and comments.
I stops the reader with a hyphen – exactly where the problems occur in the text.
Zerohedge writes According to CNN on Monday:
People familiar with the discussions said – The source is unidentified, please regard the rest of the article accordingly – new economic sanctions could target Russian energy producers, banks and sovereign debt.
They are also likely to go after top Russian oligarchs, limiting their ability to travel and potentially cutting off access to American banking and credit card systems.
This is unsubstantiated claims.
Russian oligarchs do not use bankrupt American Banks and do not need US credit cards.
With the present threat of COVID and Russo-phobia no oligarch wants to leave Russia.
Officials have also been weighing disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT payment system, upon which Russia remains heavily reliant, according to two sources familiar with the discussions.
This is a falls claim, built on a rumor from unidentified people.
Russia do not rely heavily on the SWIFT Banking system, they already use the Chinese CISP Banking system created in 2015.
The Swift option is being considered a “nuclear” option.
This is diversion of consequences.
If Russia are banned from SWIFT Russia will change all of its international transaction to CISP, and that will be a death sentence to SWIFT. So in a sense it will work as a launch of a Nuclear weapon against Russia, because Russian retaliation will return to sender.
The European Parliament passed a nonbinding resolution – This is distortion of reality.
Nonbinding means that the resolution and following statement have no relevance at all – in the spring calling for such a move should Russia invade Ukraine, and the US has been discussing it with EU counterparts.
A top US official told CNN. – The source is unidentified. Please regard the rest of the text accordingly. – That Russia has the energy option against Europe, something that the US has long warned the EU about when it comes to the Nord Stream 2. – Warned is a falls word, Threatened is more correct.
The fear is Russia then tries to retaliate by holding back production. – This is speculation.
Russia has never threatened to hold back its oil or gas production to Europe, on the contrary.
The so called fear is pure speculation connected to rumors from an unidentified person.
An unnamed administration official said: – Good Damn they got to stop with the “unidentified” persons crap – “We have put together a pretty damn aggressive package,” adding further that if Russia invades Ukraine “the US and Europe together will impose the worst economic sanctions that have ever been imposed on a country, outside of Iran and North Korea.”
This above is pure propaganda from an unidentified person, and built on the assumption: “that Russia intends to invade Ukraine”
If Russia’s is blocked from SWIFT cryptos have been suggested as the first space Putin would likely migrate to, amid total isolation for the West-based payment system.
In this sentence Zerohedge diverts the CNN fake news into a crypto currency commercial, citing a suggestion from yet another unidentified person.
Zerohedge disregard the fact that isolation of Russia will never happen, and the fact that Russia, China, India and Iran has been buying large quantities of Gold since 2008, not crypto currencies.
The key words to detect falls reporting are the use of:
Unidentified persons – Unsubstantiated claims – Falls Claims –Distortion – Rumors – Assumptions – lies – Diversion – commercials – Propaganda.
I put a comment at the Cafe this morning, saying that we are looking at ‘one hell of a December’. And said previously that Putin and Xi Jinping can keep us out of war, it will be the miracle of our times.
Yeah, we’re down to the deciding point and I consider that Democracy summit now as an attempt at a war council or something like that.
There can be no disagreement that we are at a point that is more dangerous for our world than in our recent history, like the Cuban missile crisis and the others that you mention Andrei. The pressure cooker is going to blow its lid in a hot New York minute. The war talk out of Australia is wall to wall and that Lloyd Austin fellow called Russia the USSR in a speech in this past week. Who is there to de-escalate with?
I consider that Democracy summit now as an attempt at a war council or something like that.
Here is respectfully disagree, because the folks invited are voiceless servants of the Empire (What Malcolm X called “house Negroes”) and they are present only to require a theater claque, to give Uncle Shmuel the standing ovation he so badly needs to wipe all the recent egg on his face.
The real decision of war or no war will be taken now, by the US alone, probably by the US NSC and the JCS acting as a collective “Biden”.
At least, that is my hope (what a sad statement THAT is…).
I know my language was not correct. I should have said the camp-followers or even groupies.
How good is the Russian military and/or health care system at treating post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and other war related trauma? Does the Russian military treat its severely wounded soldiers better than NATO treats its wounded Afghanistan veterans? I am genuinely curious to know if Russian advances in this field are as impressive as the development of Sputnik V & hypersonic missiles have been. I fear the Russian health care system may soon be put to the test…
This is rather offtopic, but I will reply.
First, the single most important thing: Russian soldiers fight in defense of their Motherland, friends and families. Hence their MOTIVATION is QUALITATIVELY different from western soldiers, especially US soldiers who only fight imperial wars of choice. Irrespective of whether they understand that or not, US soldiers are all paid murderers who, sooner or later, will be called to either commit atrocities or, at least, support those who will commit them.
That is simply a problem Russia does not have, even with her contract (professional) soldiers because of the Russian history and culture which is instilled since birth to ever Russian boy (and, often, girls): that there is no higher honor or duty than to defend the Motherland.
Still, it just so happens that I look into that issue as it applies to the Soviet veterans of the war in Afghanistan (which was not a war in defense of the Motherland, but an “international duty”!). Here there is one salient element: cases of PTSD (and all the comorbidity which comes with it) is inversely proportional to the degree of training received by the soldiers/units in question. The higher the level of training, the lower the cases of PTSD. Something else: soldiers in elite units are also LESS likely to be killed in action.
I am not sure if that also applies to the US, but I strongly suspect that it might.
Next, remember that Russia was a socialist country and is now a “social” country, that means that the Russian society accepts the fact that the taxpayer has to take care of the weak, poor, destitute, sick, etc. But on top of that, Russian military medicine is very advanced and Russian veterans are not routinely dumped into homelessness or to commit suicide.
The COVID pandemic has also shown that both the civilian and the military healthcare system in Russia are superb and very powerful (27 extra full-scale hospitals built by the military in 12 months if I recall correctly). Russia was also the country with the best AND earliest COVID vaccine. That tells you a lot.
The Soviet military had a major hazing problem and while immense progress has been made, it was mostly made in elite (combat) units. From what I hear, there are still units in the Russian military were hazing occurs, including deaths and suicide. I have to assume that PTSD also happens to those exposed to such mistreatment.
Still, at the end of the day, war is absolutely horrific and PTSD is a natural reaction to one (or many) totally un-natural event(s). The Russians are, in that respect, much better off than their western counterparts, but they are still only humans and I am sure that there are plenty of soldiers who eventually “snap”.
Nothing is worse than war, we should never forget that.
Soldiers on the Allied side in WWII had all the horrors of war but they also had the satisfaction of winning, fighting in a just cause and the ple3asures of being welcomed as liberators. The soldiers of the West have the horrors but none of the others. The WWII vet who wakes up after a nightmare, can take comfort in that; the Afghanistan vet cannot: he lost, he was on the wrong side and he knows the locals hated him.
Thank you for bearing with me, and for the detailed reply. Much appreciated!
I should have clarified why I felt the questions were relevant to this article:
*Morale is one of the keys to winning a war, along with training and equipment quality
*If war is imminent then society must be prepared to bear the costs
From what you described Russian society is ready to take care of its soldiers.
If, God forbid, Russian forces take heavy casualties, how far advanced is Russian technology in producing artificial limbs? (Sorry if this drifts too far off the original topic…)
It’s not about healthcare, but about financial support. It shows that Russian government takes good care of families of fallen soldiers. About PTSD I am courious myself.
“If a soldier dies in action, his family is entitled to compensation of 3m roubles (£30,000), an insurance payment of 2m roubles, and a monthly stipend. If he dies in action in a conflict that is later officially recognised as a Russian war, his family are entitled to additional benefits that can include a new apartment. “https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/19/russia-official-silence-for-families-troops-killed-in-ukraine
The world is playing Russian Roulette with a bullet in all chambers.
let’s hope and pray for one dud….
If one lives by the bullet, one dies by the bullet. The law of karma.
Don’t let Alec Baldwin check the revolver’s status.
You are too pessimistic : The world is playing Russian Roulette with only a chamber empty.
Hope dies last as Saker said
Or, hope always ends in failure, take your pick.
There is a proverb here, I don’t know how much it is used in other areas:
“Live in hope; die in despair.”
When war is the only thing to save a dying nation, why then it will be war indeed there is simply too much at stake for the U.S. the loss of the reserve currency the loss of being number one the loss of pulling all the strings in the EU and the world to name a few.
Putin will tell Biden that the Russian Federation will destroy 404 and NATO if Ukraine is used as a platform of threat to the RF. That’s a promise, not a threat.
Putin will tell Biden that spheres of influence exist around great power nations. Violate those spheres and the US will have a war.
Putin will suggest that the oil, LNG and diesel fuel now being shipped to the US to keep heated and electrified which Biden buys from Russia will cease if NS-2 is sanctioned.
And Ukraine will get not a cubic inch of natural gas if NS-2 is stopped, and coal to Ukraine will no longer be shipped there, also.
Then Putin will say “want to negotiate? Lavrov is ready. I don’t negotiate over video.”
It’s a video phone call. Nothing could possibly be decided in such a setup.
I agree, that is what he should say….
Bernard at “Moon of Alabama” speculates the UkroNazis will attack the DonBas while Putin is in Beijing attending the opening of the Olympics.
The 08/08/08 invasion of S. Ossetia began during Putin’s last visit to Beijing to witness the opening of the Olympics there.
He has a point.
Missed, no doubt, is that Russia is a nation run by a government, not a one man show.
I imagine, the STAVKA will have met and decisions will have been made WRT actions to be taken under various scenarios, including a UkroNazi attack on the DonBas.
Those will occur, Putin or no Putin.
The solution to that is to cancel the olympics b/c of omicron and then cancel the war b/c it doesnt fit the olympic scenario.
And they waited so long for it.
That Mr Putin is in China if that event were to occur is a plus.Putin will be in close personal contact with his friend Xi. What they will plan is easier face to face before Putin returns to Russia. It is also likely that the West will try to assinate Putin at that time.
I think a less dangerous and more effective response to using Ukraine as a platform of threat is to re-introduce nukes to Cuba with some form of Chinese support. It worked before…..
A “deal” and pulling back from the brink is a de facto loss for the US, given on its current trajectory – economically, socially, politically, educationally etc..- its heading for the dustbin anyhow. So, it may still suit Russia/China to play for time and let nature take its course. Red lines notwithstanding.
“The two basic options are a) some kind of deal with be made b) nothing will come out of this meeting”.
In the medium and long run, nothing will come out of this meeting. The neocons did not pull off the greatest election steal in US history so that Joe Biden would show personal initiative. On the contrary, Biden was placed in the White House to be an obedient puppet. What this means is that the neocons are still dreaming of breaking up and plundering Russia. This has been the aim at least since 1812, when the Rothschild’s financed Napoleons invasion of Russia. It failed. The Rothschild’s then permitted German unification. In the Franco-Prussian war of 1871 Britain stayed neutral, letting Germany unify and turning her into a proxy fighter for Anglo-American bankers, with Russia being the chief target. After that we get two world wars. Both the Kaiser and Hitler were proxy fighters. Who financed Hitlers invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941, when he sent in 3 million men ? Germany ? Laughable. It was financed by the Bank of International Settlements from Basel, opened in 1931, two years before Hitler was appointed Chancellor. The Bank of America also gave a helping hand. Hitlers invasion fails. After the Second World War NATO takes over. It still exists. For what purpose ? To maintain peace ? I am afraid not.
Anglo-American bankers giving up on breaking Russia and plundering her ? Never. They are still furious that this did not happen when Yeltsin was in power. No doubt they are still incapable of understanding what Putin achieved, something remarkable in saving Russia and turning her – again – into a great power.
“Worse, there are pretty good signs that “Biden” is not fully controlling the Executive branch and that there are characters at the CIA, Pentagon and Foggy Bottom (lead by the totally rabid US Neocons) which actually want a war involving Russia and who believe that such a war would not imply a very high probability of going nuclear”.
Of course not. As I stated, Biden was not placed into power so that he can think and decide on his own, but to do as told. That is what a puppet does. However, I must disagree with The Saker when he stated that the neocons believe that a war with Russia would not go nuclear. I am afraid the contrary is true. The neocons and crazies on Wall Street believe their own propaganda about the “superiority” of the West in all fields, military technology included, and that a nuclear war could be won with minimal loses to the US, which is an incredibly stupid way of thinking. They have still not grasped about the transformation of Russia under Putin. I sincerely hope there are sane minds in the Pentagon.
So, what is going to happen ? Neither side can back down. The chief problem is that time is not working for the Anglo-Americans, taking into consideration the gigantic foreign and domestic debts of the US, and the fact that the dollar is printed backed by nothing. This situation cannot be permanently maintained, as a financial crash would be the inevitable result. Private analysts are already predicting this. The neocons know it, and this is the chief factor which will drive them to do something foolish. We shall see what they will do.
Time to pray, I think.
“In military terms, Russia is now “ready to go” and she will not stand down unless the Empire gives legally binding and verifiable concessions to guarantee Russia’s security on her eastern border (Putin has specifically said so)”.
I think you mean “on her western border”.
And I don’t understand “legally binding and verifiable”. Washington, London, NATO, and the EU (plus the minor catamites such as Australia, Canada, etc.) are non-agreement-capable. So there is no difference between “legally binding” and whatever is the opposite – they will observe such provisions exactly as long as suits them. Thus the agreements are worse than useless, to the extent that they might cause some naive people to trust them.
As I have pointed out before, the Melian Dialogue of 2,437 years ago still serves as an axiom of politics and warfare:
“[Y]ou know as well as we do that right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”.
In other words, treaties and negotiations are only meaningful between antagonists who are more or less equal in military power and hence do not dare go to war. However, such a state of affairs is highly dynamic and can be compared to the moves of wrestlers facing one another before either commits to an all-in attack. If either side comes to believe it may get an advantage, it will drop all pretences of diplomacy and attack with everything.
Elsewhere in “The Peloponnesian War”, Thucydides writes:
“Oaths of reconciliation, being only proffered on either side to meet an immediate difficulty, only held good so long as no other weapon was at hand; but when opportunity offered, he who first ventured to seize it and to take his enemy off his guard, thought this perfidious vengeance sweeter than an open one, since, considerations of safety apart, success by treachery won him the palm of superior intelligence. Indeed it is generally the case that men are readier to call rogues clever than simpletons honest, and are as ashamed of being the second as they are proud of being the first”.
Perhaps a third passage offers us some hope.
“When men are once checked in what they consider their special excellence, their whole opinion of themselves suffers more than if they had not at first believed in their superiority, the unexpected shock to their pride causing them to give way more than their real strength warrants…”
That could happen to the Empire if it engages in a limited war and gets a bloody nose.
I think you mean “on her western border”.
Oooops!! Corrected, thank you!
And I don’t understand “legally binding and verifiable”. Washington, London, NATO, and the EU (plus the minor catamites such as Australia, Canada, etc.) are non-agreement-capable.
That is precisely WHY any agreement must be legally binding (not “just” words or “gentlemen’s agreements”) and VERIFIABLE. You don’t need trust, or even respect, when something is verifiable.
But still, you are right, the West is non-agreement capable, that is true. But the good news is that the West is also NOT capable of real warfighting, once balances the other nicely (while in the 90s Russia almost had no military to speak of).
So as Reagan once said “trust but check” (in Russian originally, with a cute accent to it).
And always remember the alternative: war.
And whoever attacks Russia will get a lot more than just a bloody nose :-)
I dont know. The Muricans made 330 treaties with the Redskins and they all went swimmingly and were fully honoured and respected, werent they? After all, they are men of their word. Like the Iran nuclear deal, once that was signed, problem over. Or the undertakings not to expand NATO beyond Germany, all fully honoured in letter and spirit.
Honestly I am pessimistic too, Putin should not waste his time talking with Biden,is time for Russia to tell Uncle Shmuel “bug off” and prepare for the worst, Putin should get rid of all illusions of peaceful coexistence with the western civilization, you can’t reason with arrogant self-deluded lunatics, Russia should recall his ambassador and diplomats and cut off all deplomatic ties and treaties with the west (in my opinion),The Establishment wants an Unipolar imperial order, something that Russia (and China) will not accept,if war comes god helps us all.
This is why Russia and the western civilization will never coexist:
Anglo-American Unipolar imperial model:
.one world hegemon
. might makes right (national & international)
. single societal model
.Ad Hoc (coalitions of the willing)
. secularism and relativism
. military violence as preferred
.rule of the 1%
. ideological monism
. white supremacism
Russian Multipolar order:
. collaborative development
.rule of law (national & international)
. each country has its own societal model
.respect for international law
. central role for religion and traditions
. military violence as option of last resort
.rule of the 99%
. ideological pluralism
“This is why Russia and the western civilization will never coexist”.
Well, so far they have coexisted, but on unfriendly terms. However, what you wrote is basically correct. So long as the West is ruled by private banks and corporations, full coexistence is impossible, as the two mentioned parasites only dream of plundering and exploiting.
In the long run I think that there is a chance of this changing, at least partially. The West is faltering, even destroying its self. Russia is doing exactly the opposite to what the West does. It is prospering and going strong. As one analyst has stated some years back, a rift will be inevitable between European and American elites. Russia is in Europe, while the US is on the other side of the Atlantic.
I hardly would say that is the best course of action. Working together to achieve peace is by far the ideal goal regardless. It will take the rabid dog (“NWO”/USA/NATO/EU) to bite the bear, to force Russia to euthanize the dog.
Many younger generations of the west do not know the seriousness of war, and they will be ignorant until they are forced to enlist.
Not optimistic….as news is maybe saying USA is blaming Iran for not being submissive easy meat and going back on negotiation points( probably USA projecting their own failures )and dragging along with them in their folly EU who had actually seemed determined to solve the situation…….JCPOA talks finished?
Anyone can check?
“Biden” desperately needs a victory to improve its image.What better way to do so that to bring the world to the brink of war only to make peace and be hailed as a saviour.I know its an outside guess not having had a political/military background or perhaps a hope against hope.The “Biden” know that they can not survive a hot military confrontation with Russia and may use the peace option, sure would help things.
They certainly have ramped up the Russia Russia shite this past few weeks on Irish TV and with the lies by omission it is chilling.
Sadly,like almost all other EU states “official Ireland”remains a cowering poodle in a tragic scene before us.
Reading the face of Blinken on such media is loooking at one very frightened man who knows the rubbish he spouts is adding fuel to a fire that he is much too close to.
When Biden spouted about no red lines he was masked so couldn’t read that one,
He will probably apologise to Putin in the same manner he did re the “killer”remarks.
Try moonofalabama blog
“Nuclear Talks – Western Negotiators Fail To Recognize Iran’s Position”.
Removed. Please stay on topic or take to MFC. Mod.
So the video conference is scheduled on December 7, 2021. Exactly 80 years after Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. Any symbolism here, Americans love symbolism.
“The main (and sole) advantage of this pre-negotiations strategy is that it costs very little money while having a major PR effect.”
Double-down or fold.
There is the moment when player simply can not double-down anymore.
If UKUS had wining cards in hand they would attack already. No need for Scripals or Navalny. Or NS2 soap opera. All they need is one mind blowing false flag.
The fact they didn’t atack means they can’t. With obvious full spectrum decline, this is not surprising.
I do not think they will fold in shame, they will instigate another crysis elsewhere to distract attention.
And then fold when no-one is looking.
A Russian blogger thinks that this might be the false flag:https://sputniknews.com/20211204/flight-from-tel-aviv-to-moscow-changed-flight-level-due-to-nato-spy-plane—air-authority-1091250692.html
It will not happen on the video call, but I expect nothing more than an eventual snarling climbdown by a properly medicated Biden, poorly camouflaged with more sanctions, perhaps airstrikes against random nobodies somewhere sandy during the holidays when no one is paying attention. At most, I can see something vaguely resembling Budapest ’56, with the Ukrainians being left twisting as the Hungarians were.
Are we really in a Guns of December situation? It is hard to imagine that the DC Borg is so out-of-touch with public sentiment that it believes American involvement in a war is politically possible under any circumstances. It may matter to people around here, but out in actually existing America, Ukraine remains nothing more than a big blue blob on the Risk board. If that. And I have seen nothing resembling real cultural preparation for a possible war in the US media. This is important.
No one on the left outside of the Clinton-Obama-DNC-Media axis wants war with anyone except perhaps a pre-emptive pogrom launched against the MAGA people.
>”We can also count on the MAGA-crazies to oppose any and all deals with Russia”
If you mean the Trump’s base inside the GOP, this is way off the mark. Most could care less about Russia. If Biden cuts a deal it will be two days of blather on Breitbart, some hooting by Hannity, and nothing more. There will be barking about Biden’s weakness, by heartland politicos: pure hollow rhetoric. You will recall that Trump broke the back of the Bush dynasty simply by calling out the idiocy and incompetence of their anti-Baathist war. I don’t think this lesson has been forgotten by many sitting and want-to-be sitting Republicans.
At the moment, I am not even sure a plurality of evangelicals would fall in behind open war with *Iran*. The ZioHawks who favor war with everyone under any circumstances (Graham, Rubio, etc) are loathed by the MAGA people. Most Republican House members will correctly oppose any deal for purely electoral reasons. This is a sign of intelligence, not insanity. If they cannot read tea leaves, they can read the Breitbart comment section, as painful an experience as that can be:
Those same guys was cheering tRump believing in sooper dooper weapons that would make a glass parking place out of Russia…
December 1, 2021
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov answers questions asked during a presentation to the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation:
Lavrov identifies the upcoming “Summit For Democracy” as a ruse, an attempt by Washington, DC to exert its influence as the majordomo in charge of what countries are worthy to participate in the conference, which of course excludes the Russian Federation.
He also spoke about the U.S. inability to grasp the seriousness of what it is doing via its NATO proxy to destabilize the Ukraine situation.
He stated to the assembly that he is well prepared to address the ultimatums and veiled threats that will come from Washington, DC when he attends the OSCE conference in Stockholm, Sweden the next day (12/2/2021).
December 3, 2021
Our dear amarynth pointed us to the English translation of Lavrov’s remarks to the media questions that followed the OSCE conference.
Question: ” What if the United States and its allies refuse to discuss Russia’s demands for security guarantees? What will happen then? Do you have a Plan B?”
Lavrov:“We do not demand security guarantees. President Putin has pointed out that there must be collective guarantees of each other’s security, for all parties to the common European process. I wouldn’t like to guess what will happen if the West refuses to discuss them. Everyone has heard what President Putin has said and knows that our proposals are serious. We are putting them on paper now. We’ll see what their reaction is.”
December 4, 2021 (today)
Alexander Mercouris gave his summary of what Lavrov said in a video report and quite frankly it is void of any “diplo-speak” and quite direct.
At the 5:21 mark, Mercouris interpreted what Lavrov said as,
“further eastward expansion by NATO will not be accepted by Russia the implication is that Russia will act and act decisively if such NATO eastward expansion takes place and the implication again, is that Russia will use force if any such step is taken. So to give an example, if the decision by the NATO council to admit Ukraine into NATO then the following day Russia will act will send its forces into Ukraine.”
“The following day” has to be journalistic license because I did not read that from Lavrov’s statement. Let us hope that is not the case but it could be.
I did not read in either of the question and answer sessions from December 1 or December 2 about Russia invoking protection to the people of Donbass under the UN “Responsibility to Protect” doctrine.
Isn’t that a legal strategy for moving into the Ukraine if it becomes a NATO member country?
There is a picture of Lavrov preparing for the Stockholm meeting that seems to have created a stir in Russia. The arctic fox seems to have special significance. Does anyone know what it is?
Andrei Martyanov explains as delicately as possible:
The explanation behind the meaning of that picture (Arctic Fox) was provided by Andrei Martyanov here:
See: http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2021/12/russians-will-get-it-immediately.html .
A “tongue in cheek” subtlety can only be fully appreciated when it’s meaning is understood by the intended audience and not just for the benefit of the “home-team”, so to speak. If has no effect on the U.S. because they are ignorant of Russian culture and the significance of Пиздец подкрался незаметно as Martyanov explained.
…..that both Biden and “Biden” muster enough courage and (real) patriotism to bring the world back from the brink…….
.I would rather say that the meeting with Biden is an addition to “scale” balance between the western and eastern offer. Angloamerican offer to negotiate Israel support. With the future where Russians will get nothing new in Ukraine, but to stay in the Elvira-Aleksej status quo. What is the long-term goal of this Russian leadership. On the other side put pressure on China, which has begun to speak differently to the Biden administration. A visit to India should also be seen in this context. Playing chess for big business interests, not to much of patriotism. It has become worldwide routine for “modern” presidents to play role of sales commercials.
Let’s not delude ourselves. War might be postponed, but eventually it shall happen.
The only way for war not to occur would be the US accept to become just one more country amongst others (that is, to accept the US dollar to be just another currency like any other — which would be the end of the US hegemony). That would never happen.
There can be no “legally binding” agreements with the US. Only a Treaty approved by 2/3 of Congress would be binding. Nothing else will bind a future president.
One point to consider is that behind American self-glorification lies a deep insecurity. The US, while greedy, self-serving and destructive is basically a schoolyard bully of small children. Recall how terrified they were by the Iranian missile attack in response to Soleimani assassination? Americans are fearful people.
Like a bully, America needs the reassurance of a following of sycophants (the Democracy Summit).
IMO, while this is a dangerous game with considerable risk, the US /NATO has no stomach for war with Russia, especially if they know it will hit their own shores.
Also, China and Russia will act in concert. Any misadventure escalating in the Ukraine might prompt China to settle matters with Taiwan. Or China might just benefit from continued patience and picking up the pieces. This too the Americans hopefully know.
Let’s pray for peace, and for the Empire ending with a whimper and not a bang. Let’s have faith in a better world ahead past this New Dark Age.
“One point to consider is that behind American self-glorification lies a deep insecurity. The US, while greedy, self-serving and destructive is basically a schoolyard bully of small children. Recall how terrified they were by the Iranian missile attack in response to Soleimani assassination? Americans are fearful people.
Like a bully, America needs the reassurance of a following of sycophants (the Democracy Summit).”
Behind all of America’s delusional boasting that it is the Leader of the Free World and enforcer of the “Rules-Based” World Order is a sniveling, insecure, and increasingly psychopathic nation … with its finger on the Apocalyptic red button.
A proxy war can always happen, it happend in Vietnam, Korea, Syria, why not in “Ukraine”? The US loses nothing by sacrificing Ukraine, a failed country, and its people, while Russia will lose resources, people, and reputation if the zionist West can control the narrative framing Russia as the aggressor (which they have already been doing in the last weeks – “the US cries out in pain as she strikes you”).
The Saker wrote –
‘The alternative is war with, at the low end, could be limited to some silly Ukie provocation (of the kind they have been regularly pulling off, and failing, for many years now) or, at the high end, to quickly escalate a full-scale (inter)continental war, probably one involving nukes’.
If Kiev attacks the Donbass and Russia is forced to intervene I find it highly unlikely Nato/US/UK will get involved in fighting. I can see the usual sanctions on Russia, cut off from Swift, cancellation of NS2 and the usual mass PR campaign but forget nuclear war, European and US elites are not going to die for Ukraine.
“If Kiev attacks the Donbass and Russia is forced to intervene I find it highly unlikely Nato/US/UK will get involved in fighting. I can see the usual sanctions on Russia, cut off from Swift, cancellation of NS2 and the usual mass PR campaign but forget nuclear war, European and US elites are not going to die for Ukraine.”
Exactly right. I wrote something similar in reply to another poster.
You can forget Ukraine, this cowardly Western elite is not going to die for their own country. They will weasel out and backdown while screaming through their media megaphones of having won.
Did Putin use force on 08-08-08? Who did he challenge to counter his moves?
Yes, he did and NATO stayed far away when Georgia’s military was effectively destroyed.
Did Putin use the military to rescue Crimea from the Ukies?
Yes, he transferred in Spetsnaz to replace the troops already stationed there but stayed below the 25,500 total allowed by the agreement between Kiev and Moscow. The Ukies stood down and then left the Peninsula.
Did Putin send help into Belarus when the color revolution threatened Lukashenko?
Yes, he sent specialists to assist the Belarusian military and police and Intel services.
Did Putin send the VKS to assist in the Syrian war?
Yes, he did send the Aerospace Forces and turned the war from disaster to victory.
Will Putin use force to back up his red lines? Of course he will.
Is Putin bluffing? Of course he isn’t.
The actual realm of national interests is dominated by a nation’s security needs.
Thus, Russia’s national security is determined by Shoigu and Gerasimov and the Federal Security Council as much as by Putin. The SVR and FSB and GRU and the General Staff determine the security interests.
What do you think are Patrushev and Naryshkin telling him about NATO, the US, the Poles, the Germans, the UK and all the Russophobes inside Ukraine?
The Enemy is at the Gates, again.
The US will end the video phone call knowing that certain destruction awaits Ukraine, NATO and whoever is linked to the security threat launched against Russia. There will be no ambiguity from President Putin.
There’s nothing to analyze or interpret. We have his track record. It is as clear as could be.
Russia is ready and only NATO’s withdrawal and the removal of offensive weapons in Ukraine will do.
“There’s nothing to analyze or interpret. We have his track record. It is as clear as could be.”
Exactly. One more thing. In all mentioned cases UKUS tricked somebody else to do dirty job (and die).
No difference this time. Biden’s summit is just maiming sheeps into slaughterhouse.
You put the pin into this bubble of anxiety.
Many, who write of the awful consequences should Russia take direct action, should pay more attention to US/NATO’s ineffective responses to Russian actions in the recent past..
Blinken, himself, could only opine over the prospect of further economic sanctions. Nothing else.
The US/EU want an excuse to render the Nord Stream project inert. They hope that the Russians want the revenue from gas transfers so badly, that they will transfer through Ukraine given no other alternative.
The Ukrainians want to creep into the NATO block through incremental increases in US/NATO/Israeli-funded training equipment reorganization and military advisers, expecting Russia to let it happen as long as it is done in small measures over a long period of time.
“The US/EU want an excuse to render the Nord Stream project inert.”
The US/EU want an excuse to get the Russian Federation kicked off the UN Security Council. When they get that, their grip on the apparatus of world government will be 80% secure. Then, they’ll start working to remove China.
Somebody said that Russia plays chess, planing several moves ahead, US plays poker, bluffing all the time.
I think it’s time for Putin to call the bluff!
Or call ….Trump to give him a chance to become relevant by getting neocons on a short leash!
Still can’t understand these Russian speaking people in Ukraine, ready to be pushed to war with brothers just to serve interest of Zionists Poroshenko and/or Zelensky!
Russia is in the pleasant position of a chess player who knows that any endgame will favour him.
Except for the endgame in which the opponent smashes the chess board. But then, I do recall Putin as having said something to the effect of “We will go to heaven as martyrs, and you will just die.”
I was thinking of the endgame as corresponding to a future in which nothing extremely violent happens and present trends continue to their logical conclusions. The USA, UK and Europe will just gradually run out of gas (maybe literally) and coast to a halt.
Nothing will happen. In as much as all arm chair generals would want. It is all theatre. Ukies know that there is no military solution. Otherwise, it’s game over. Most Ukie soldiers will quit if real Russian military gets going. Americans and Euros, will not get militarily involved. Thus, nothing happens.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year everyone!
It is theatre. Hopefully nothing will happen. But the West has cried “Fire!’ so often in the cinema, that people are getting used to it. The danger is they may need to start a real little fire to create some smoke. That fire might burn down the cinema.
I hope Patrushev and Gerasimov can make it clear to Putin where the limits of Russian backing down ought to be and when push back is warranted.
As for Putin, he is known for once saying in an interview” if a fight becomes inevitable, I will strike first”. Let us see whether he lives up to his words.
The western media is circulating various Russian troops numbers close to Ukraine borders ranging from 75k to 175k ( depending on the source); I would say, if the goal is just the destruction of Ukrainian forces ( and no territorial claim, then this number is more than sufficent, likely no less than 40k troops needed.
If however, Russia is intend on reclaiming any piece of the Novorossia long the Black Sea coast, then the circulated numbers may be enough to reclaim a narrow piece of land ( perhaps as wide as 100k to the north) along the Black Sea coast to Kherson/Don River thereby creating a land corridor to Crimea, resolving the water supply to the peninsula and creating a more defensible line along the Don compared to the current defense line.
To capture anything more, Russia will need a lot more than 100k soldiers. Knowing Putin to be rather cautious, I think, if push comes to shove, this is plan, and perhaps destroying Kiev political and military infrastructure ( essentially de-fanging the Ukrainians for a decade or more) ; I would be surprised,however not entirely, if the order is to reach out all the way to Transdinester Republic and to the Danube over land.
‘As for Putin, he is known for once saying in an interview” if a fight becomes inevitable, I will strike first”’.
That’s just basic common sense. Once you’ve seen this, you’ll never forget it:
Butch Cassidy, like Mr Putin, does everything possible to avoid a fight. But if there really has to be one…
Biden already said he won’t accept any Russian redlines. I think the US will go to this meeting expecting russian concessions. They are sure that they are the strongest player and that if they escalate enough to put Russia in a corner in which there are only two options left, make concessions or go to war, Russia will make concessions.
A war in ukraine doesn’t mean a nuclear war. The US is hiding behind ukraine and what they will do in case of limited war is putting more sanctions. I don’t think a war in ukraine means war between nato and Russia.
If “biden” intends to talk to Russia from a position of strength and makes threats despite Russia s military stength I think Russia could make some kind of concessions. A nuclear war is by definition a war nobody can win. Usually nukes are used to deter an ennemy but what do you do if the ennemy is completely crazy and ignores the MAD? In case of all out war Russia could destroy nato but that destruction would not compensate all the destruction Russia will suffer. I see the Russian government as truly rational. In other words I don t see the Russian government refusing to make some kind of concessions if refusing to make concessions means a nuclear war. I think that’s the “weakness” the western maniacs are willing to exploit because unlike the western elites people in the Russian government grasp the horror of a nuclear war and I think they will do all they can to avoid it.
Agree with your sentiments and your broad drift, but there is a big problem that has been ignored in your forecast. The problem is simply this: Russia could be at a point where no further retreat is possible without falling down the cliff. I mean what further concessions could Russia make? To give up Crimea? To abandon NS2 after billions spent? To promise not to keep its military beyond the outskirts of Moscow? I think the only concession Putin can make is to declare that America is a good country and Americans are fine fellows and that Russia wants to be friends with America. Then Biden can strut on the stage and announce “See, I made the Russians cry uncle”. IMHO Putin has already made a big concession by agreeing to have this meeting in the first place.
This is the madman strategy of negotiation. It worked for the US in the past. But this is a short-term play. Ultimately the madman has to be neutralised not perpetually accommodated.
“This is the madman strategy of negotiation. It worked for the US in the past.”
This is the spoiled brat strategy.
ANY strategy works against 100 times weaker opponents.
Despite the large number of articles on this blog and that of Andrei Martyanov about Russia’s military strength, you still appear to be believing American bragging about their superiority.
Ukraine gaining NATO membership or the US deploying its missiles in Ukraine are red lines for Russia’s national security, and they’d hardly make any concession regarding those issues. Russia have a lot of other means to make things work for them without going for the nuclear option.
With respect, it is not about bragging. Nobody seems keen to explain the only thing that matters – why is the West continuing with its push on Moscow and even intensifying it, despite obvious Russian military prowess and despite huge risks to itself?
Cliched explanations of the type – oh, they are stupid, have a death wish, Alzheimer’s etc. sound less and less convincing. The Western predators are evil but not stupid and would never endanger their posteriors unless they thought they had a good chance of success. What makes them think that? Once this is understood, it becomes clear what Russia is facing and what it must do.
The aggressor can continue making micro moves for a long time thus depriving Russia of a casus belli. Ten commandos here, a couple of batteries there. When does one say enough is enough?
This is a war of psychology, cognition and affect, heart and mind. It is not about Russia’s weaponry but about her willingness to turn the launch key.
The mongols thought they did have good chance of successes in taking on old Rus, so did the Swedish during the reign of Chapels XII, so did the French under Napoleon Bonaparte ( with the support of a few German state lets) and more recently the Germans under the leadership of Adolf Hitler though that had chance to destroying this wild and ruthless entity populating the endless steps and endless Taiga forest… they all failed.
And we are taking about adversaries that at that point in history where all in top economic and military from. USA is far from being in top economic form as is hardly manufacturing on its soil any of the necessary supply for its army. Got import it form overseas.
What holds Putin back? Not sure.. maybe his cautious nature, maybe his awareness that escalations go quickly go out of hand, maybe he knows that some generals within his army are itching for lot more than a small skirmish with the Ukrainians… nobody talks on this forum about the likely high level of frustration of the Russian army top echelon and how they may act once given some opportunity to do so.
Russia put missiles in Cuba to counter the US missiles in Turkey. After the Cuban missiles were removed, the US very quietly removed the missiles in Turkey.
Is there a lesson here?
Unfortunately, Russia has little to concede. The back is now touching the wall. At this point Russia should dictate in no uncertain terms. This puts the onus on the “West”.
At this stage, the Russian government is not mincing words. Lavrov is making it clear to all the players what they should expect.
The “Western “ media is just playing it’s role in hyping the bogeyman. Lots of profits for the mic.
At the end of the day, there won’t be any military confrontation between UAF and RAF. The outcome is not in doubt if it does occur. Therefore, everything you see and hear today is just noise.
So relax, grab a drink of choice and enjoy the holidays.
Agreed. I’m a total, irredeemable pessimist and I see no way out short of disaster. But then I’ve lived more than 70 years with the selfsame situation so nothing changes. Fucking politicians, fucking military, fucking “security” services.
Well said Saker.
Nothing will happen and you know why? Russia best weapon is financial (not being the anti woke capital of the world as Orlov says): if there is a war between the two biggest nukes capable powers, when confirmed western financial system will collapse. The stocks exchange will lose around 50%( if no more?), oil price will reach 200 usd or more,gas price will skyrocket at levels never seen before(in full winter).
These people(including neocons, good at warmongering and fake P R but nothing else), will never take such a risk with their (big)money, confort, families etc..the same is valid as well for the Russian side(the 1% and oligarchs + pro politicians).
No need for super missiles, zirkon or whatever name.
Don’t forget that their dream is to divide and steal Russia richness. What would they do with a nuked country, in a nuclear winter for years even centuries?
It is simply impossible.
And what about the ”green” narrative? Ok guys let’s star our co2 fight with a nuclear war…no way.
Also, every UN “sustainable development goal” is weakening the western countries. It effectively means decrease self-sufficiency in energy supplies, manufactured foods and goods, which makes EU countries even more dependent on Russia. You can see the desperate EU gamble with their new “Global Gateway” initiative costing 300 billion euros aimed at getting control of African mineral deposits.
Just saying, Russian wheat, gas and oil, nickel and copper will just have increasing value, not only financially but as a weapon. These are weapons that can be used in cold war scenarios. The world is already experiencing inflation on this stuff, maybe the Russians would do well securing own supply first.
Dear Saker, in hard times we need some light. This is the best and also funniest description of current politics in Europe and West by Mikhail Khazin.
I live in a small town in East Texas that voted 85% for Trump. I have changed my attitude toward nuclear war with Russia. I am in favor of it. We may get some radiation, but the cesspools that are the Democrat-controlled cities would be reduced to ashes. Nuclear war would turn the US solidly Republican for centuries! As a side benefit, the Deep State propaganda machine would be annihilated. Thank you, Russia.
The above is obviously a snark. But it illustrates why the elites who control the US will avoid nuclear war at all cost. Nuclear war would be like chemo therapy and they would be like the cancer.
As Putin said , if there is to be a war , throw the first punch and since the enemy is the same , Russia ,China and
Iran should join in at the same time.
The nefarious forces in the United States -call them “Hawks”- are quite sure that they have Russia stewing in the pot like the proverbial frog in a kettle of hot water. They believe that Russia will allow itself to be destroyed (cooked) gradually -but inevitably- rather than take military action. So far, these hawks have it right.
By now, we have all heard the phrase “asymmetric warfare”. Many have read about “fourth” and “fifth” generations of warfare. These hawks employ these tactics against Russia relentlessly.
Russia is not going to win this war for the hearts and minds and for wallets of the peoples of the world against the West. Russia is not going to win a war of economic sanctions, embargoes, and natural resources while it is denied access to markets. The hawks know this. It so happens that whatever is not controlled through International Banking and Finance (BIS) has been controlled through market channel management. Hollywood, Wall Street, Amazon, Apple, Google, and Western media have penetrated everywhere.
Russia’s “red lines” are unknown. The likely truth is: the Russian leadership cannot decide where they are, nor what the consequences for crossing them should be.
One should be mindful of what Bismarck was reported to have said to the Kaiser in 1870, when Wilhelm mused just how much of France he could incorporate into the newly formed German Empire: “You can do a lot of things with bayonets; but one thing you cannot do is sit on them.” It is time for President Putin to make demands, not concessions. He has sat in the kettle for 7 years.
The hopes for a Russian rescue have disappeared from the hearts and minds of nearly everyone in the LDNR. They should have received a level of assistance that at least matched what the Assad regime in Syria has received.
Right now, The United States is adrift. It is no more capable of making a strong and decisive response to a Russian military action in the LDR or the Black Sea than it it was in Afghanistan.
NATO has turned up the heat in the pot called Ukraine. The frog is very uncomfortable and is dying slowly. Russia must get out of the pot and put the fire out.
Your frog in the kettle of hot water analogy is bang on. That about nails the situation of Russia. If the frog does not jump out of the kettle it will be game over for it.
And you are 100% correct in bringing up America’s real weapons: “Hollywood, Wall Street, Amazon, Apple, Google, and Western media”.
Since Putin famous speech in March 2018 in which he told Russia was military fit to challenge NATO the Empire gave him more than 50 month to reinforce his armament and military skills. That’s plenty of time and remember he’s going to turn 70 in October next year. The clock is clinking and I’m sure his patience is thinning in the meantime. It’s not very smart to poke the bear right now.
In addition the weather is now to the advantage of the Septentrion armies.
OK. Then, we need to be prepared at least mentally and spiritually.
In the end, we all want peace, but having constant building up of hostile forces next to the border of any country is not precisely a peace situation. There’s no way Russia would accept that forever and not respond eventually.
However, I believe that we have at least a few more months. This is just a terrible time for war and extremely unnatural for an escalation. The only reason we have such an escalation is the pending US bankruptcy on their debt.
Armchair general here: The Empire needs to take control of Ukraine and Taiwan in order to mount land invasions of Russia and China. The strategic goal is dismember both Russia and China in order to prevent peer competitors from challenging US hegemony permanently. This has established US policy (Truman doctrine, Reagan Doctrine, Wolfowitz doctrine, Bush doctrine). Truman doctrine, Reagan doctrine? — Wasn’t that about communism? Well, the US is still treating Russia as the USSR and “China” now being painted as the Communist Party of China.
Now that the US and allies’ plans in the Middle East have been disrupted, strategic objectives have shifted. The initial plan was first to take down Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Iran, then Russia, then China. The ME didn’t work out as envisioned, and, foolishly on their part, they drove Russia and China together. And now the window of opportunity is closing with Russia and China arming up and teaming up. (Really speaking, the window has already closed, e.g, by hypersonics). Thus the focus has shifted and the time table adjusted.
Parlous times and the US public is being prepped for kinetic warfare if it comes to that. What may appear to be paranoid hallucinations in the media is more likely disinformation as one piece in a calculated propaganda campaign to demonize Russia. Same with Taiwan and China, especially after the subversion of HK failed.
However, I suspect the first step is to to provoke Russia and China into justifying increasing economic warfare to isolate Russia and China from the world economy. The US is calibrating its media campaign to deny military intervention, which could be suicidal if it would go nuclear, in favor of a tight economic squeeze on Russia and China.
Increasing sanctions to break Russia in the same manner of Iran, e.g., disconnection from SWIFT (an in effect the global banking system) is being floated in the US media as an option. Same with China and Taiwan. The US in not yet crazy enough to contemplate a land war in Asia on two fronts, and probably on the an Iranian front, too. Surely the generals have told the civilian leadership that. It would be a blunder to go kinetic before trying everything else — not that Western leaders are immune to blunders. So I am betting on amped up economic war justified based on Russian and Chines “aggression.”
Good luck with an all out economic “war” without provoking severe economic hardship in the West. The costs of excessive provocation are high now, even disregarding hypersonic attacks and MAD. Let’s hope the Western leadership can add and subtract. All that really understand is money.
Dear Saker and everyone;
Wouldn’t it be in American interests to put this to bed to consolidate resources in Asia, where they *might* be competitive with some of Asia plus Europe in their corner? To me, their “red line” is the existence of an economic peer and China is just that. They had a military peer before with the USSR.
Wouldn’t it be in Russia’s interests to normalize too? They could let China take the heat yet provide support (sell more resources and weaponry)
Wouldn’t it be in American interests to put this to bed to consolidate resources in Asia, where they *might* be competitive with some of Asia…
Yes, that’s how ordinary folk like us think; but the US is the Hegemon. It doesn’t think that way. It feels insecure when it sees rivals emerging and the more its rivals rise, the more fearful it gets.
The US is facing two — Iran is not in the equation, it really is a rank below — rival powers each more powerful than it but in different spheres — Russia in the military sphere and China economically. The hegemon can’t have that, so it pulls all the levers at its disposal to disrupt the continued rise of its rivals. War, provided one doesn’t fight it oneself, is an effective way of cutting a rival down. In the case of the Ukraine, there’s the added bonus — from the hegemon’s point of view — of Europe being involved in what is basically a destructive enterprise with every participant losing, and Europe consequently being cut down to size and becoming even more dependent on the hegemon.
In the case of PRC, the hegemon puts obstacles in the path of China’s economic activities particularly the mega, multi-billion dollar BRI. There are military aspects, for sure — Taiwan, SCS, Quad, etc — but the whole object is to disrupt Chinese economic activities.
America is the world dictatorship, so American interests are predatory in nature and necessarily involve “consolidating resources” (i.e., waging hybrid warfare) against all opponents of the American World Order.
Moreover, your “advice” that America attempt to divide and conquer Eurasia by pitting Russia against China *have already* been attempted for the past several years (under the Obama, Trump, and now Biden Regimes). Moreover, America has also tried to play China against Russia during this time period as well.
All these American “Divide et Impera” attempts have failed miserably, as Eurasian integration and a multipolar world progresses apace.
That is why America is now resorting to more aggressive military, economic, and political threats against Russia (and China).
The stench of American imperial desperation is in the air.
I have come to the sad conclusion that the US is truly evil. Perhaps it was the way the land was systematically stolen, or the slaves on which the economy was built. Perhaps it is the greed ‘every man for himself’ and ‘winner take all’ creed. It is the only country to have used all three of nuclear weapons, biological weapons and chemical weapons and has been almost continuously at war or regime change for the past century. It tortures its prisoners and incarcerates it’s own citizens at levels above any other country in the world. It executes minors at home while droning women and children and wedding parties abroad.
What is it about America? The elites we blame are after all the most successful children of the system.
‘In God we trust’. Trust to do what? Or perhaps the worshipped god being referred to is the coin itself.
This is a masterpiece of concision. Everything one needs to know about American history and the American psyche is right here; everything else is marginalia. My compliments.
The book of Douglas Reed, The Controversy OF Zion is often referenced on this site for an understanding of the geopolitical realities. I was so impressed with his skilfulness, I read other books he wrote in his isolation dealing with Jewish influence in USA history, Far And Wide and Insanity Fair. These books will give you the answers you desire, I believe.
Please let me add to your pessimistic view of current affairs. There are two things I noticed in this part of the world. One there was American troops relocation from Qatar to Jordan after Biden took office. The new base was built eight years ago supposedly for Syrian refugees. German and French jet fighters were moved from Turkey to it few years back. They were casually and briefly mentioned in the news. Turkey put more troops in Qatar than the USA had at the time when SA was hostile to Qatar. Why would Turkish troops needed to defend Qatar When the biggest American military base was there to protect its assets including Qatar and SA. When all it takes phone call from the embassador. I’m not buying Turkey is super power to challenge all Europe and Russia and made statements warning even China over the Ughurse (Muslims in China). A lot of naive people in this part of the world think Ordogan is the man who is standing up to all infidels. Turkey is playing the role that is drawn to it.
Two: right after the breakout of uncle Covid field hospitals were built and ready far away from population but were never used even when the regular hospitals were full capacity. Something is very fishy with a stinky rat.
Wars are not planned by rational sane persons but by sociopaths. It is like prior to WW1&2. God help us all and wake up the idiots who follow the sociopaths.
Due to her climate it may take the Russian troops a little bit time to warm up. But later on a few Russian battalions comprising of hardy Cossacks will definitely plow their ways to the Atlantic. Given the degree of moral bankruptcy in which NATO members particularly the US army are in with their huge LGBHT forces. So, no problems for Russia to tackle that problem.
I fear that Biden is just going through the motions with this to bolster his plummeting poll ratings and calls for removal from office for gross incompetence. It’s to fool the American public, not to influence the Russians. Why do I think this? Because of the gangsterland attitude that Biden has subsequently expressed (that he refuses to consider anyone’s red lines, meaning he takes orders from no one and certainly not from Vladimir Putin, whom he obviously does NOT respect) AFTER this Zoom conference was authorised.
Moreover, there is the very strong likelihood that the shadow “Biden” will never allow the puppet Biden (the alleged president) to make any deals revealing the slightest hint of weakness, real or imagined. So, no concessions from Washington, I’m afraid. He wants Crimea and the Donbas back for the empire, even as the empire reserves for itself the prerogative of awarding ownership of Kosovo, the Golan, all of Palestine, the city of Hong Kong, the island of Formosa and sundry shoals in the South China Sea to various third parties. Based on American rhetoric and military exercises, these points on the globe are all worth the potential declaration of total war by the exceptional country. Too many dominos might fall to counter that precedent in any one case. Washington simply cannot afford peace breaking out anywhere.
Assuming the world audience is never privy to any actual words uttered by either interlocutor, the exchange might simply be just another series of outrageous ultimatums by the current American dictator, his twisting the truth, fabricating reality, dispensing insults and purposely trying to provoke dire responses from those he has existentially threatened. Biden has proven at least semi-competence with that Scheiss, if nothing else, especially when he served as Obama’s viceroy of Ukraine. Unless the damned fool has a stroke during this pow wow, he will try to bully Putin the way he did vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan in their debate after Obama’s first debate debacle with Mitt Romney totally failed. Biden was, and probably still is, basically a hatchet man for the real sources of power.
Pity we will not get to see or hear his infamous “C’mon, man!” interjection when he tries laying it on Putin. C’mon, man, we are the mighty and powerful United States of America! Roll over for me like you’re supposed to do. Of course, he’s not gonna get that response or any of his outrageous demands met. Putin still understands the power of “nyet!” If the world is lucky Joe will simply sign off, stew about the situation and publicly blame Putin for not getting off the schneid after he graciously gave the ungrateful Russian the chance. Putin will wait and watch, but will never shoot first. He will hope that the American leadership turns its attention to something else for the time being.
“Observer missions could be agreed upon and then deployed by both sides to verify the implementation of any agreements.”
Wouldn’t such a move allow the US/NATO maneuver freely inside the grey zone and plan future attacks in a more lethal manner? Also it would make it more convenient for them arm the Ukies.
It seems reasonable to observe the determining factor will be the details of any such. albeit potential, agreement along these lines.
The nearest example I can bring to mind was the existence during the Cold War of military missions operating within each others territory.
I recall BAOR exercise briefings reminding us not to leave anything behind in exercise locations, as well as strictly adhering to radio voice procedure discipline as a result of the existence of the Soviet Military Mission (SoXMis) back in the 1970’s. Soviet Warsaw Pact troops will have been through the same with the British/NATO Military Missions operating on that side of the Iron curtain.
Well, when it is finally made clear to the American public that USA is defenseless against Russian Hypersonic weapons, neocons will run away like a dog scared by a hyena. GB+3B+UP will continue oinking while real decision makers of war in the pentagon will be cautious not to spark one with the bear. The likelihood of kinetic war seems slim.
“The likelihood of kinetic war seems slim.”
As long UKUS oligarchy is unaffected, kinetic war with proxies is on the table.
The most effective way to prevent kinetic war war is to pinpoint nodes of real power in the West and strike hard. Complete lack of empathy makes them imune to pain of others. Even turning some usefull idiots into radioactive dust won’t change single bit.
The oligarchies of the West want to buy time before the inevitable collapse of the USD. That’s my optimistic view.
For the very same reasons that the USA outright refused to put a written guarantee in place promising no military advancement of the West into Russia’s sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, so it will be with this deal. I don’t even have the slightest doubt that Putin will be refused this option – just as Gorbachev was. The US always wants all options on the table, never place themselves in a position of restraint and never, ever accept “red lines”.
To even entertain any other option is unrealistic.
Further, on the other side of the table, Putin will never relinquish his red lines as they represent an existential threat to his country.
So the immovable object meets the irresistible force. Only one outcome can be predicted – war. Perhaps not war now, but soon.
Here’s the deal Andrei. The US continually re-uses failing strategies – how about the famous “throw a plate of spaghetti against the wall to see if it will stick!” theory. Obvious desperation here. “Uncle Schmuel” needs to get Ukraine off its financial books (as the USA it more than BANKRUPT without that dead weight). If they keep their Ukraine colony it will cost billions ‘ad infinitum’. So, the ‘west’s’ ‘smartest guys in the room’ get together to plot how they can dump the mess off on NATO/Germany via the “green” horseshit flying around like a world-sized plate of spaghetti. The only trouble there is that in order to force a ‘green-woke’ travesty, the Germans need to have an operative pipeline. Note: Putin may continue sending gas through Ukraine until 2024 in a reduced volume – this was already reduced prior to the existing agreement – 60% of pre-2014 volume, followed by 40% per year until the end of 2022, I believe) No deal – the horrible Putin will win! the CD apparatchiks wail in their meetings. Drum up an invasion scenario, then issue threats of missiles stationed near RF borders to force the issue! I told you that they were the smartest in the room! What is the alternative? Invite the Russian Federation to invade this basket-case of a ‘nation’ (Ukies). In fact, demand it! Afterwards the hated Putin will be stuck in another Afghanistan-type quagmire, go broke rebuilding it and defending against right-wing crazies, and ‘the West’ can then righteously shut down the RF through sanctions and the propaganda megaphone. Solution: don’t attack the so-called nation that Russia is fortunate to be completely rid of.
Also, Russia will be free of the deal with Merkel to continue transit fees via gas pipeline through Ukie-land if the US self-righteous ‘congress critters’ institute NS2 sanctions. In that the US congress has been completely consistent in doing so it is a ‘fait accompli’ (see Magnitsky, MH7, Skripal, that idiot who supposedly got poisoned and was idiotically shipped to Germany etc.). Solution: tell the hologram frontman for the ‘deep state’ to pound sand! Tell that fossil that in the event of an attack on Donbass by Ukies, Russia will move decisively as done in 2008 in Georgia. As Putin has stated, any missile directed on RF territory will be considered a ‘nuclear attack’. Tell Sleepy Joe this, and that all ‘west’ military installation have already been targeted for destruction with hypersonic weapons in that case (the famous “warning”, pause, peace concept) Tell him that, as a guaranteer of Minsk, that the agreement was made in the UN Security Council, and no matter how the ‘west’ views it (see 28-page Lavrov release) Russia is not a *party* to the agreement and only a guarantor. If the Ukies attack Russia is fully within law to assist in repelling an invasion on Donbass.
Please see Dr. Roberts, who is now bragging that he advised the Russians that the aim of the ‘west’s’ foreign policy is to take control of Russia, dismember it and sell off the pieces (yes, we all already no that, of course). There are no ‘western partners’ or ‘western colleagues’. P.S. and don’t forget to to have V. Putin tell our senile idiot President that Russia can easily destroy the entire eastern seaboard of America as a warning. Additionally, Putin needs to line up a successor – none of us is getting any younger.
this maybe a slight aside but it fits squarely into where we are at this moment in history. I’ve been following this guy for the last four or so years and he has proved himself on the nail time and time again, nail on the head, he isn’t political, its the system, the details and the cause that drive his work. His opinion is that NOW is the time of western collapse, economically and in terms of death wish energy strategy which has come home to roost, this would fit with the Wests’ desire for war to take attention away from their utter incompetence since 2008 (financially) but much longer in general.
the comments are usually pretty learned as well. Printing money is no good anymore, you could make everyone a millionaire tomorrow but it isn’t going to work if there’s no oil for transport, no electricity to keep warm and no flow of goods, added to that inflation and interest rate rises are here for the long term. This is the one piece I’ve read that makes me realise war is genuinely on the horizon, the West has no choice. Can Russia face them down with the reality of overwhelming technical superiority in fire power or does the West believe it has superior numbers to absorb and overcome. Will ‘negotiations’ involve Biden begging for Russian resources? Are the Americans playing for time? Yet again in the West it is looking like a bankers war.
What, you can do with Biden, who has a brain drain, and who doesn’t decide on anything. America thinks it is comfortable, because it thinks the war will take place far from its soil. Ukraine will be destroyed militarily within 30 minutes, NATO is not a serious military problem for Russia, in three days, it will be destroyed militarily.
It seems to be always more clear that the geopolitical objectives of this period are increasingly conditioned by the need to survive the terminal crisis of the current financial capitalism. At this point its collapse could occur in a very sudden and violent way. And it is also known that there are those who would like to replace it with “definitive” forms of financialization of nature, with all the resulting conseguences for the global economy.
In macro terms, this means that now it has in any case vital to attract outgoing capital from the crumbling EU (or “EU in reorganization”, with the Great Reset) to US and UK rather than to the at the moment more dynamic economies of China, Russia and Asia in general.
But the “window of opportunity” is getting narrower and this probably explains the “provocations in places like Afghanistan, Syria, Ukraine, Belarus and yes, even Taiwan while trying to force energy prices higher.”
The scenario is of world conflict, not local. And the epicenter is once again Europe. The hands of the clock in many respects appear to have quickly returned to the late 1930s.
The Russian leadership seems to be very aware of this, while it is still possible that a part of the Anglo leadership will see in a pragmatic geopolitical (financially favorable) agreement on Europe also a viable way out of the madness of the last two years.
Conversely, compared for example to the period of the Minsk agreements, the European “leaders” seem so desperate that, lost for lost …
How about Iran?
The empire, having probed Ukraine and Taiwan for weakness and found none to its liking, may want to go for a ‘soft underbelly’: a sort of Gallipoli-style adventure in the ME. Iran, after all, was always the final tactical (as opposed to strategic) target of the neocons in ME. And, IMO, they are smarting over the drubbing they received at the hands of the Russians in Syria and itching to try their luck again.
A major war with Iran would divert attention from the western kleptocracy, use up enough material to divert a financial crash, fully engage Russia and China (while not crossing enough ‘red lines’ to invite WW3), and tick a box (makred ‘hubris’) left unchecked since 1979. It would also galvanise a jaded population locked in a post-COVID-19 malaise behind a load of jingoistic nonsensical propaganda about fake ‘values’.
Thus, if the US suddenly and unexpectedly reaches a (simmering) detente with Russia over Ukraine, and ditto with China over Taiwan, there is still a third way for the western imperial brigands: war with Iran.
NB: this will, of course, be an unmitigated and total disaster for just about EVERYONE. But the brigands are not too bothered about that.
The Israel government has already given the green light to Messianic settlers to take over the al Agsa mosque. An attack on Ira, probably false flagged by Israel, would be a fine distraction from that.
“With Symbolic Hebron Chanukah Visit, Israeli President Greenlights Al-Aqsa Destruction” – Milo Peled
No, I don’t think an attack on Iran is likely. There are already enough missiles pointed at any and all American targets/bases/personnel by Iran and its allies in the ME, that they would not stand a chance of surviving or running away.
Also, Israel would be target No.1, by missiles from Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza (perhaps Yemen also). It would be the end of Israel, no matter if nukes were used in the Samson option. All Israeli embassies should be checked for radiation in case there is a nuke placed there.
Finally Saudia Arabia would also be a target if it had stoked up trouble with Iran.
And forget about any oil getting out of the Strait of Hormuz.
The world economy would implode. Amongst other things, America would shatter from its internal stresses.
A former French intelligence officer suggests on his website that nuclear weapons are already deployed in Ukraine. He does not provide any proof. But if it is true it will be at the center of discussions between Putin and Biden. If they don’t remove them, the Russians will go after them or destroy them. This is not Munich – 1938 because the strong party does not want war.
The internet has made it difficult / impossible to fool ‘all the people some of the time.’
No one would have read a true history had the Cuban missile crisis actually resulted in a war. If the narcissistic elites today actually manipulate the World into war, their deeds will be exposed, and they will neither be believed or forgiven.
That, in my opinion, is the best hope for avoiding war.
War is horrible but something must be done against the maniacs who have taken over the world. We are all hostages of these people. War is the only way to final long lasting peace on Earth
“War is the only way to final long lasting peace on Earth”
Hmmm, didn´t somebody famous say that about World War I?
“legally binding” phrase seems key, and has very deep implications, especially in context of “agreement” with a party understood to be “not capable of contract”.
Quoting Saker’s essay> ” …will not stand down unless the Empire gives legally binding and verifiable concessions to guarantee Russia’s security on her western border (Putin has specifically said so).” I am considering how such “legally binding” could take place. In what context, and to what court and to what bailiff would the enforcement of such binding agreement would violations be referred? Recalling the principle of Westphalia (all States are equal in legal standing and their relations are based on Contract Law) how can any agreement be enforced?
It seems to me that this goal of “legally binding” requires the submission of one party to another. Surrender and change of government, in other words. One might recall how the Third Reich was brought to “legally binding agreements”. Examples abound. Historically the prelude to agreement with non-agreement capable party requires that that non-capable party undergo a vast and sudden change of character, defeat, revolution, etc, such that it become capable of contract.
The implication seems to my eye to be foundationally an ultimatum, but for rhetorical and diplomatic reasons couched in polite form.
Was it Lenin in 1915 who noted that all war stems from domestic requirements? (I’ve lost the precise quote)
Domestically, it seems, the US requires a war and consequential change of character. A metamorphosis that makes rational the internal contradictions of the US and zone A. This is not a matter of will, but of correlation of historic forces. Built-in, so to say.
Think in the direction of hard ‘guarantees’. If you actually abrogate or in some way break contract, your punishment will be X or Y (we will break your legs or we will take your Capital City or something like that).
…but the present situation fulfills that condition (“we’ll break legs, etc”) and yet the zone A continues to be non-contract capable.
Zone A refuses to ( or is incapable of ) obey-(ing) even it’s own Law – for example the UN Charter or the US foundational Law of the Constitution. It’s departed from the Charter since even before it was ratified…
The logic defines that Zone A or zone B undergo a change of character in some foundational, non-delusional, and fundamental sense. Zone B however is rational and not liable to Change under these circumstance, being of civilizational character, while zone A is essentially hysterical and non-civilizational.
Presumably the “breaking of legs” will have to precede such Change. Who breaks the legs of whom and where remains somewhat indeterminate…
What a horrible situation. It’s a “singularity”, a sort of zuswang. When a singularity occurs the result is an “explosion” of some sort. On the wall over the kitchen table @ Anoxia > https://rarehistoricalphotos.com/soviet-flag-reichstag-berlin-1945/ or, if one prefers> http://ids.si.edu/ids/deliveryService?id=NMAH-2007-4883&max=1000
In example bigbig change in character of parties.
It may be that a coup in zone A could achieve big change in character autonomously. This seems unlikely….one recalls the failed Stauffenberg routine in ’44. Or perhaps, in some sense, the fascist coup of ’63…but the other way. I am not holding my breath…
(once I met a fella that did “collection work” for the mob, little fella, he hated it and asked for a transfer to running the porno shop…)
Think of Japan after the 2ndWW. There were agreements that they were not allowed to arm themselves for years into the future. I cannot now remember the specifics, but this is what I remember.
I can think of evil things that can be done, but the idea is to bring this recalcitrant bunch of criminals into a position where they cannot harm the world.
Take a quick look at the China sitrep that I pulled together quickly this morning. They are being beaten and hoisted on their own petard. There is more than one ‘force’ here. We gotta count China.
And out of Maria Zakharova’s office this morning, there is a torrent of information step by step debunking the propaganda.
I cannot put it all together, I just know there are things happening. I also had a Chinese correspondent write me this morning saying that in the social medias over there, they believe the economic cart is now falling over and the common conversation is surrender talk on account of bankruptcy.
I looked as you suggested.
Japan Constitution (MacArthur as viceroy wrote it?) renounces war 100% as instrument of Policy. Is basic law. Your memory is accurate. They’re chipping away at their own law… Is the nature of fascist operations to ignore law and replace it with Ukase or “rules-based order”.
In the matter of “democracy” I well remember how as a child my mother diagrammed and explained to me how Soviet Democracy and Communist system Democracy was supposed to work, and sometimes did work. The matter in China, well presented in white paper and more @ globaltimes (which I copy whenever they appear) is similar in character. The Chinese criticism of US Democracy is bitter true…”awaken the people to vote, every few years, and then the ruling class goes on to do as it pleases…” and so forth. (Mom studied Marx and the USSR, and “flirted” as they say, with Communism, and had a fat file down at the gestapo, er, whatever. She’s long dead.) In 1950’s she was bitterly disgusted, saying “In 1945 the US turned on it’s allies and…” Well, she was an educated Quaker gal… US democracy does work fairly well on the local level in pastoral communities. These, being genuine communal villages, rule pretty well. They can “vote” any time, and many keep private arms – which creates an objective force everyone is aware of. If, however, there’s any weapons actually fired, the system has some sort of crises. Anyway, I wish mom was around to read the Chinese white paper(s) – she’d nod in agreement.
Being civilizational China is better able to withstand chaos than zone A, and they have said so quite clearly. Same quality in Iran, and Russia, etc.
It seems to me that civilizational “empires” are stable, dynamically stable, only if the people are free and able to get what people need – and that this requires that the ruling class pay attention to the people’s needs – voting is one method, polling is another, a feedback loop passing through a rational and well-intentioned filter of government such that oscillation and rapid change is minimized, but not eliminated. Organic, if you will. Adaptable. Viable. You’ll perhaps recall the story of King Alfred and the cakes…which teaches the King must obey the peasants, and precedes Magna Carta (now liquidated).
I cannot imagine that China, which managed to fight off and force retreat against the might of the US in Korea even before the revolution was complete, and which was massively outmatched, is going to surrender anytime soon. Dogs bark, caravan goes on… And, speaking of the Chinese Revolution, Taiwan was to be dealt with as soon as Hainan was ridden of bandits and fascists – it’s a Revolution that has not yet finished. And the Chinese fascists were transferred there by the US 7th (I think) fleet… The US “curated” rehabilitation of Korean Quisling fascists was part of the process to invade Chine (see G2mil, I think they have a run down on MacArthur’s big war plan.)
Thanks for the latest Maria Zakharova. The most impressive lady I know of.
Regards, gotta go to work…
Current U.S ‘diplomatic’ paradigm is a zero sum game. Only one winner-the U.S. This requires/demands capitulation by Russia/China who want pursue collaboration or non zero sum outcomes. US pursuit of hegemony will not tolerate Russia/China non zero sum multilateral world and Russia/China won’t capitulate. So..
For US paradigm to change US must suffer a humiliating military defeat which cannot be ignored, or disintegrate under weight of economic problems. After either of those it would have other things to worry about rather than issuing ultimatums & or interfering in the affairs of other sovereign states. There are no other possibilities….
Washington loses nothing if the Donbas reduced to an uninhabitable wasteland. In fact, they gain in the sense that the EU might rally behind Washington by withdrawing from the Nordstream deal. As long as Russia provides the EU with energy, the dollar remains vulnerable as the world’s reserve currency.
The overarching strategy has not changed in decades. The globalist warlords want to integrate Russia into their system through defeat, fragmentation and inserting their own leaders. Russia’s independence along with its vast resources (like Venezuela and Iran) pose an existential threat to the globalist project.
Washington does not want a war, but now believes that a limited confrontation that doesn’t spread across Europe is feasible. They know from experience, that Putin is always measured and disciplined in his response, and will not escalate without cause. They are betting that his behavior will not veer from that pattern.
A war in Donbas does not mean Putin will storm forward to Kiev. It just means that more innocent people will die in Donbas.. which doesn’t bother anyone in Washington.
IMO, Putin’s predictable behavior in the past, may be hurting him now.
I was 5 years old in 1962 at the height of the Cuban missile crises. Kennedy wrote on September 13, “If at any time the communist build up in Cuba were to endanger or interfere with our security in any way…or if Cuba should ever become an offensive military base of significant capacity for the Soviet union, then this country will do whatever must be done to protect it’s own security”. Putin should remind Biden of this. It’s Russia saying the same thing concerning Ukraine.
The following is relevant because one must assume that the zone A persons of power are using drugs…and this may contribute to highly ambiguous and hysterical non-rational actions.
Kennedy was using powerful stimulant drugs all through his time as Prez. – to understand him and what he did right and wrong is a deep endeavor. One might read “Dark Side of Camelot” (Hersh). After he took LSD with his truelove he came to his senses, alas, too late….his eccentric self and his cohort were swept away by even darker forces. Mind you, I’d like to see him return. I like the guy. McCain referred to the liquidation of Mr K as a “correction”… If we posit that FDR was done in and Truman switched in Wallace’s position to establish cryptofascist cadre aka “MIC” (Eisenhower) , then yes indeed Johnny’s public execution was a “correction” back to MIC control – and the attempt to stop Time.
I do find it ironic that you keep referring to “MAGA crazies” when the intel agencies and federal bureaucracy (Nuland et al) are clearly on the blue side.
If USA refuses to make the deal Putin proposed about legally binding security guarantees, they are by default implicitly stating that nato intends to keep pushing east, confirming the Russian charges against nato, and it basically destroys the “nato is for defense* not aggression toward Russia” narrative.
I believe Russia now has to ‘politic’ in Ukraine in order to create conditions for Ukraine to join Union State. Also this is true for the other post soviet republics, of course minus the B3.
So Russia obviously wants to avoid a war, unless she can win it decisively and in glorious triumph against not Ukraine but the real masters at work – the brits+yanks.
Russia needs to respond to Anglo provocations, while not attacking Ukraine or other post soviet nations… and Russia certainly can do this.
Russia could release its intel on 911, JFK, Princess Diana, etc. – If they have something big that could change the way Americans and brits think about those topics, it could knock the breath out of the west’s propaganda power at a key moment. It could also jeopardize relations with Israel, SA, Iraq, and others. If they have such intel why not?
Something like that would exacerbate domestic politics in USA and Uk and easily overshadow the Ukraine issue, and the Syrian one for that matter too. The American people would be grateful to Russia for the information and mad at their own governments. That would be quite a wrench in the works of the harass-Russia-via-Ukraine agenda.
I still think Russia ought to send S-400’s to northeast Syria where they have a government-controlled airbase right on the Turkish border, maybe station some MiG 35’s there too, and an S-400 & Islander in Der Ezor. This has Russia placing assets in a country it already operates in, while in practice tightening its grip on nato-member Turkey. Russia would be well positioned for reasserting control over Syrian oil fields and would have Turkish Kurdistan under defacto Russian-controlled airspace.
Russia should play the Kurdistan game when nato tries to press on the Ukraine game. Spill the nato war on Syria into nato proper. Put Turkey on the defensive, and undermine nato cohesion at the same time.
Also, if I were Putin I would order the mothballed SSN fleet Russia has to be quickly brought into serviceable condition. This would put Russia near submarine parity with the US navy on a hull count basis, but if equipped with latest Russian missiles (granit, kaliber, tsirkon) their attack radius could compensate for their relatively noisy operation and might even give Russia the edge in undersea domain… If this could be done quickly, even partially, it would change the maritime balance of power significantly and maybe western war planners will realize their trans-Atlantic logistical rat line is a non-starter, and thus they can’t project power in Ukraine, Turkey, the Baltic’s, or the levant.
I have no knowledge on how feasible it would be to revive this mothballed submarine fleet, but if it were possible and to equip them with modern weapons I think this would be well worth doing at a time like this.
In any case, I pray for peace. What do I think will happen next? I think Putin will try to be the adult in the room and settle the issue with negotiations and asymmetrical leverage, but if he can’t I think he will bring the hammer down on Ukraine and Syria both, quickly being bringing both fronts to decisive victory on the ground before the west can stop it from happening.
Let us hope cooler heads prevail.
I am posting a copy of a letter that I sent to the Era of Light internet site an hour or 2 ago , regarding the Saker article posted yesterday , Dec 4 , ” ….. the final countdown …..
DEC 5 — 2021 , TO , Era of Light ,
— I am sending Era a comment concerning The Saker site ‘s new article that came out yesterday , Dec 4 , titled — ” Now Comes The Final Countdown To Either Peace Or War “.
— In the last half of the article , The Saker discusses the possibility of Nuclear War , if the War Hawks in the U.S.A. and in Europe do not want to negotiate a deal with the Russians that both sides agree to , then , the Saker says :
” If not , then God help us all , because then War is Inevitable ” .
— I have a suggestion for The Saker — instead of using the word , God , the Saker could try using the word ” SWITZERLAND ” — where , according to Benjamin Fulford ; 200 of the World ‘s Largest Corporations have there ” Headquarters ” . — Benjamin F might say , the Problem with that Word Substitution is that there is a ” Conflict of Interest ” from the point of view of those Capitalistic Corporate Executives , which is , The Globalist Elite Agenda Top Priority is to try to Reduce the World ‘s Population by 90 Percent — The Agenda is Not to Try Save 90 Percent of the World ‘s Population .
— The Second Top Priority of The Globalist Elite is to make sure that The Globalist Elite are in the Top 10 Percent of World ‘s Survivors.
— The Third Top Priority of the Globalist Elite is to make sure that that the Two or Three Top Nuclear Weapons Countries , do not point there Nuclear Missiles at Switzerland and become a Threat to those Capitalistic Corporate Profiteering Exploiters .
— Robert W
Roblin , Manitoba
I totally agree.
A replay of 1914 could explain why the Empire might start a war despite the high cost and probability of a military defeat. In 1914, the extreme cost of a war was well understood, but war came anyway.
Britain held the key to peace in 1914 because if London had sent a telegram to Berlin with the simple message that, if war came, Britain would fight Germany, then Germany would have instantly backed down. This was proven in the Agadir Crisis of 1910, when Germany backed down in humiliation to avoid war with England. One telegram, and there would have been no Great War. But that telegram was never sent. The world needs to know why is wasn’t sent.
Yhe cabinet meeting on August. 3, 1914, where Britain chose war, with the King’s Declaration Of War on the morning of Aug. 4,, explains everything. The meeting was described in Barbara Tuchman’s best-selling book The Guns Of August (1962, Pulitzer Prize in 1963, 23 reprintings). In 1962, JFK and UK PM MacMillan each read her book as a warning, so it helped create a peaceful end to the Cuban Missile Crisis. But slightly concealed within her book is the hidden serpent. Tuchman’s description of the cabinet meeting on the evening of August 3, gives 2 parts of the key to unlock the puzzle. That evening, there was a crowd of newspapermen at the door of #10 Downing Street, who interogated each pasing politician; they all answered that they did not know if England would go to war, and … if England did, they didn’t know which side England would take. Tuchman wrote that only about 4 men know – and they were all that mattered. The others were what we now call NPC’s, non-playing characters. Field Marshall Donald Haig, the head of all the British military, was also at the meeting. He warned the politicians that in the proposed war, England would be victorious, but it would not be any 6 week picnic. He told them it would be a 4 year war of attrition with 3 million British casualties. He was extremely accurate, as we now know. A logical result of the war of attrition was that British industry would itself be nearly exhausted and wron-out by war’s end. Haig, the expert, delivered a very spine-chilling message in private to the rulers. But the public were also warned off from war. Newspaper headlines were filled for a month with Lord Kitchener thundering warnings against war. Kitchener was a major public hero and was named Secretary Of State For War in August. So everyone in Eangland had been warned that war would be extremely costly. But yet … the leaders chose to pay Haig’s stated cost of 4 years and 3 million casualties.
Barbara Tuchman also gives the last covert key to the puzzle. Britain declared war on the morning of August 4, but – oddly and most crucially – it declared that war would not begin until midnight, about 14-15 hours later. This delayed start was a trick, intended to bring the Ottoman Empire into the war – on the side of Germany. Why would anyone want to add a powerful country to the enemy’s coalition ? The answer was in plain view; only the method was hidden. The Ottoman Empire owned Palestine, and a war would enable England to seize Palestine. Tuchman describes the cat-and-mouse game in which the British Royal Navy, using some 20 ships, was unable to prevent two German warships, the Goeben and Breslau, from traversing the distance from Sicily to the Straits of Dardenells in that time. Once in Ottoman waters, Turkish politics forced the government to join up with Germany who had built the railroads, armed and trained the army, etc. Tuchman makes the Royal Navy seem merely unlucky, but history allows me to take a more jaundiced view, that failure to stop the Goeben and Breslau was by design.
The last key to the puzzle is the only one that is now public, although it was hidden for yeas. The 1917 Balfour Letter or Balfour Declaration gave Palestine to world Jews as a homeland.
In short, a few powerful Jews, including the Rothschilds who owned the debt of the British government, were able to make sure that The Great War actually got started, in order to seize Palestine for the Jews. The responsible Jews and British politicians were well-informed about the enormous price in blood that would be paid – mostly by non-Jews. The evidence in indisputable, 107 years later. They thought the price was worth it.
Will our descendants be uncovering the truth about the Ukraine a hundred years from now ? Will Zionists be removed from Palestine and relocated to part of the Ukraine ? I’d be surprised if this plan is not already afoot.
Two side notes: (1.)In England, Tuchman’s book is titled August 1914. (2.) You will not find most of the relevant details in Wikipedia, where crucial info is omitted and the gaps are covered up with trivia.
Not so very well understood by His royalness, who demanded that there be a war…see>’Find a reason to go to war with Germany’: Shocking letter documents how King George V urged his foreign secretary to justify conflict two days before outbreak of First World War” https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2706589/Find-reason-war-Germany-Shocking-letter-documents-King-George-V-urged-foreign-secretary-justify-conflict-two-days-outbreak-First-World-War.html
Evidentially his royalness did not fully grasp the significance of the Maxim gun. (Churchill I think wrote a paper on the significance of the machine-gun when he was at Sandhurst.)
But yes indeed, as you say I agree “A replay of 1914 could explain why the Empire might start a war despite the high cost and probability of a military defeat.” It does seem to rhyme with 1914. Alas.
But only rhymes. Heartland Theory enplanes a lot – in 1914 the big reason was to prevent Heartland Unification. Now the big reason is to fragment and destroy the already achieved (and maturing) Heartland Unification. It’s a revisionist war, to undo what’s done. To reverse Time. see> The End of the Cold War and Shakespeare’s Macbeth”, by Vladimir Golstein (just use search engine, it might be forbidden to post url) Is deepdeep paper, and true. Mac was doomed by fate. Samesame now. Lack of virtue combined with class war of ruling class against the people. Bummer! Time is a one-way function. It’s unbeatable. Trying to reverse Time, what’s going on to-day, is, if you like, an insult to God, and thus really stupid, and fatal.
1. It’s safe to assume the King had discussed this with Field Marshall Haig and that Haig would have stated the cost of a war to the King. If not, then the two most important figures in England would have abandoned their grave responsibility. The king would have been remiss is trying to “know better” than his top military leader. Moreover, 3/4 of all WW! casualties were from artillery, not machine-guns, and the devastating effet of massed artillery had already been widely recognized for 20 years, at least since the time of the French 75mm rapid-firing cannon, copied famously by the Germans in the late 1890’s.
If the King was eager for war, that just means he would have been part of the plan to seize Palestine. The king’s participation does not come as a surprise. But the link which proves the King’s duplicity is a valuable historical document, and I thank you for the link.
2. I’d like to address the whole Heartland theory which has other titles. This framing tends to blink us to two major facts.
First, Germany without Russia was never much “Heartland”, and a British-Russian alliance was always possible, except for the Jewish hatred of Russia, which led, for example to Britain helping to finance and build the crucial torpedo boats for the Japanese, for the Russo-Japanese War. An honest adherent of Heartland Theory would have ditched the Jews – even if it meant repudiating the Rothschild-owned debt, called consuls. Russia had zero reason until the Bolshevik Revolution, to not be best friends with England. The potential synergy is so great, that it says a lot about the strength of the grip the Zionists had on Britain, and the lack of countervailing forces within England.
Second is the price to be paid for stopping German industrialization I accept that Germany’s chemical and electrical industries were slowly overtaking British industry, and that this posed a challenge that Britain might have needed to handle. Britain had plenty of other ways to meet the German challenge, other than war. Britain could have increased its own investments in English industry and higher education. England could have industrialized South Africa, Canada and Australia, and helped industrialize European nations that would agree to not be linked to Germany. Hindsight, yes. But the awful fact remains that Field Marshall Haig had laid out the extreme price to be paid, 3 million casualties for England, to say nothing of its allies, and British industry nearly exhausted in a war of attrition. Any normal person would have blanched at that high price, and sought a better way to deal with Germany’s rise. Am I wrong to say the price should have been considered prohibitive, or that the politicians and the king would not have believed the top military leader ? Am I wrong to think that if they doubted the Field Marshall, that they would then have taken the time to interrogate him about the details of how he could make such a prediction ?
I could be wrong, but my understanding is that after WW1, Britain largely did not rebuild its worn-out industries, and instead turned to using its banks making lucrative overseas deals, to fund its empire. I suppose the bankers were in charge of this tremendous choice to end England’s 200 year-old industrial revolution.
Thanks Cosimo, it is always a pleasure to read your grasp of history.
Barbara Tuchman applied a fine zoom lens to WW1.
Professor Carrol Quigley revealed the wider patient conspiracy leading to WW1 – starting at least 2 decades prior to 1914. The plotting involved a handful of Anglo-Zionist men. And the course of how many civilizations were altered by a few determined ruthless men? Here is a brief summary. More interesting telegrams revealed!
The Germans essentially handicapped themselves when the new young Kaiser forced Bismark “the Iron Chancellor,” who had achieved so much for them and piloted a prudent course, overboard.
From that point it was downhill for Germany and they became ensnared in British plotting, and were played like a fiddle. The rest as you note, was how to get the continental monarchies and Ottomans to consume themselves through intrigue and war, and when nearly bled dry to bring in the fresh young American economic juggernaut to tip the scales. And the overarching and continuing aim was the Zionist quest to resettle Palestine with Jews and make it the dominant world power. A nearly 150 year continuous effort.
I agree the same dynamic appears in play for this coming big war. The Anglo-Zionist intrigue and subterfuge, broken strategic treaties, building of ABM ring for first strike protection, creeping closer to Russian borders, building of interlocking and some secret alliances where a weak member is guaranteed to trigger the conflagration, etc… And a now dominant Zionist faction may fight to the last Westerner to achieve its aim, no matter the cost.
I even wonder, as in WW1, if Constantinople/Istanbul is again being secretly offered to Russians? Turkey is tottering but this is a fatal temptation.
The Enlightenment disposed of the “Christian threat” in the West, and the first world war disposed of the obstructive monarchies and here we are. Is statehood and order itself on the table now?
The solution is there. Biden calls off the Ukies, without the Ukies provoking, Russia doesn’t do anything and Biden gets to say he deterred Russia
Reality, You, A Martyanov etc and Martin Armstrong`s Socrates, have made me extremely worried.
I am not optimistic, but as you i hope that there exist a few “normal” people in washington/pentagon.
Your Norwegian foreign minister did the very wise thing and excluded Norway from any NATO advances toward Russia, any armed conflict with Russia.
Stoltenberg, the idiot or whatever that freak is, flew over his skies and ran his mouth stating Russia can have no spheres of influence. This statement obviously is a challenge which could be very costly to Norway. Especially in the Arctic region.
War is easy to talk about as the big mouths of NATO and the EU and the Pentagon do. Russia takes war more seriously than any nation in history. And Putin has readied his country to wage an utterly destructive war if someone attacks Russia.
I think the plan the West is working on is war in Ukraine, Belarus, Kaliningrad, Transnistria, the Arctic and Crimea Peninsula. and they would love if Japan moved into the Kuril Islands and Turkey upset the balance in Syria, while ISIS-K launched into Tajikistan. So, Ukraine is not likely just the sole battlefield Russia may have to cope with. The entire Russian sphere of influence is liable to be what is “set on fire”. Stoltenberg may have made a slip of the tongue.
Russia may blow the entire U. military machine into tiny bits, but it will never let its soldiers cross the current line of demarcation. Hence this is not Crimea. That is not an invasion. And it will withdraw its forces quickly. Aside from the crazies at the top, no one in the West will care. And the U.S. will have lost yet another war… with a war machine that costs s trillion dollars a year. This won’t end well. Louis Napoleon anybody?
“The US could agree to give Russia legal binding and verifiable security guarantees”.
Yes, the US “could” do many things in “theory” but they don’t.
Come on…….The US is not functional anymore. It’s really a mess and deteriorating quickly. They are just huffing and puffing to stay relevant. A submarine here, a destroyer there. Obsolete, aging dismal state of a navy, air force and army. F-35s falling out of the sky, aging US military hardware with carrier strike groups aimlessly docked on US shores: https://southfront.org/locations-of-us-carrier-strike-groups-november-23-2021-2/
The US is pathetic and the American elites know it. So what do pathetic, arrogant, narcissistic, shameless hypocrites do ? ……They huff and puff and flex whatever is left of the muscles they have, while crying wolf like a little btch.
This is what I believe is most likely:
“The most the Ukrainian military can do is launch an attack on the Donbass. Attacking Crimea across the isthmus would be stupid and pathetic; attacking Crimea from the water would be stupid and absolutely hilarious to watch. And so Donbass it has to be, again. It won’t take long for the Russians to respond using unidentified long-range precision artillery and demolish the Ukrainians’ supply lines, trapping them in cauldrons where they will run out of ammunition, food and fuel and gradually bleed out. This is what transpired before, in 2015, leading Kiev to sign on to the Minsk agreements, because their other choice was to lose their entire army. Except now there will not be another set of Minsk agreements, no terms of surrender, no cease fires and no safe corridors for withdrawal. There will just be death. To the Russians, these people are terrorists, and terrorists get to meet God before the rest of us.
And that, perhaps, may be the entire point. The US wants to close out the entire sorry Ukrainian saga, cut its losses, pull an Afghanistan and leave in a hurry, because it has a long list of countries it has to pull out of before the fuel and the money run out, and it badly needs to pick up the pace.”
The US has no stomach, money or resources for war, neither the NeoCons, Democrats, Liberals or any party in the US…..all they can do is print money for weapons production (MIC), assuming that is still functioning, and arm the Ukrainians in order for them to bleed out.
By the way, everyone should check out Moon of Alabama’s latest post on this. He cites similarities between this situation and the Georgian one – and suspects that the US has already decided on promoting a Ukraine-Russia war probably sometime in January or February. I’m inclined to agree with that.
In other words, this upcoming war is a done deal and Biden is doing this “summit” just as part of the program to CYA as a peace-maker before it starts, which as Bernhard notes, is what the US will do after the war starts – conceal the fact that Ukraine started it.
This move by Biden reminds me of Barack Obama and Syria after the alleged “chemical attack.” Citing his “red line” about chemical attacks, he rushed to start a war with Syria – only backing down because of push back from Congress and Putin’s getting Syria to dump their chemical weapons. Yet everyone later lauded him as somehow being a “peace President” who didn’t want a war with Syria. As I keep saying, *every* President wants a war – they just don’t want to be *blamed* for starting it if it goes south.
Is there symbolism in the Biden-Putin Summit being on Dec. 7th. The same date as the attack on Pearl Harbor that brought the US into WWII. Surely they must recognize the date.
It was general Milley that insisted on killing general Solaimani.
Very interesting if it was indeed General Miley. The details of how he strong-armed Trump, if he actually did, are just as important. Do you have any link(s) to support the assertion ?
There will not be a war. But there will be an escalation of violence in the Ukraine. Just as Syria must carefully digest every Israeli provocation. The neo-cons will attempt to test the limits of Russian patience and self-control by the accelerated and wide spread abuse of Russians and pro-Russians within the Ukraine and the LDNR. NATO, the US and the Private Central Banks will be happy to poke the Bear one human being at a time.
“ Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Washington was not taking seriously Moscow’s warning not to cross Russia’s red lines.
Putin is correct. But it is the Kremlin’s fault.”
I think he has some points.
I have to agree with the author that we are facing extreme danger. It will matter little who fault it is when this progresses to open warfare. Then the real decisions are on the table. It is my understanding that NATO rules of engagement allow theater commanders to use tactical atomic weapons at their discretion. Which means in layman terms if a army or an army group gets surrounded nukes will be used to defend them. It is a given when you really think about it you must accept this because the pieces are already in place. To deny this is very dangerous and irresponsible. In Canada our leaders will fail us, this much I know. They have in the case of Ukraine only thrown gas on the fire Trudeau and those before are stuck in their Russian hysteria to the extent of gloating Ukraine into a all out war. I would say the entire west is in lockstep when it comes to Russia and Ukraine is certainly expendable in their plans.
So what can we expect if blows up. The violence and destruction will level Ukraine the entire NATO force involved will be mauled along with horrendous losses inflicted on Russia. Troops will be moving through Poland and Germany, Romania will be getting hit in their staging areas inflicting great damage on the the infrastructure of those nations and it will be a similar scene in Russia and their troops are rushed to the front. The EU will be in it now the war will be front and center with their people dying by the score. The British will not be spared their naval base will be history and bombs will fall on targets of interest that is a given. Ask yourself how long this can go on before someone presses the button? Given the level of irresponsibility shown by NATO not long.
From there it is anyone guess but I suspect it will be a lot more important to the survivors what their are going to eat and how to treat their children dying from radiation poisoning than who won the war. If we the people were wise we would not let them do this.
The US must stop interfering in regions it has no business being there.
Its membership of NATO is not a valid excuse to be coerced by EU elites over their divide and conquer strategy to use Ukraine to create conflict with Russia or other members of CIS.
The US MAGA people actually dont want conflict with Russia and Putin but want good relations. Its the evil EU & UK Globalists who want conflict with Russia over monetary and mkt controls – the same evil forces that were behind attacks on Russia in 1812 and 1941 and killed 6m Jews in WW2.
Law – I would have thought there may be something the past treaties done with USSR/Russia and US decades ago may have binding legal effect on them (and EU/Germany) that could be used if Russia took court action over. SALT, Reagan & Bush treaties with Gorbachev and Yeltsin etc…. I seem to recall in the Nixon-Brezhnev & Carter accords there were principles of avoiding conflict inserted into them. USSC enforces treaty obligations.
What we really have here is EU moneychanger devils again using Ukraine as an excuse to attack Russia.
Most of them operate from and hide in Switzerland. And they are in deep trouble over lockdowns etc in EU & UK.
But the underlying sword rattling comes from the fact Biden and his people and the US Democrats are in dire deep trouble domestically and are on the run and all this to some extent is a smokescreen and diversion away from their own disastrous plight. They know their time is coming for their end and are desperate. This also makes them dangerous to Russia at this time.
The wicked EU devils are also desperate too.
The EU is destined to collapse domestically (due to internal conflicts as most EU citizens hate the EU institutions – Greece, France, Hungry, Italy particularly and its growing Germany and elsewhere too).
Andrei is right over establishing a Bi-Lateral arrangement but that cannot be done with the maniacs currently running EU & US.
The key to solving this is for Russia to assist US & EU & UK patriots to removing the devils running the show in EU UK & US by whatever it takes.
Underground and cyber operations make work better than military at this time.
If for example Russia organized emails and website info and paid for pamphlet drop to all homes all over US EU stating the facts of current conflicts and its position, it would heavily damage those evil forces. And used domestics groups in US and EU who agree to assist it would neutralize the situation.
Im sure Putin though knows well anything Biden said (given his poor health condition) must be viewed as a akin to talking to a cabbage from the backyard garden.
“The US could agree to give Russia legal binding and verifiable security guarantees ” How could anyone trust or believe in such things? Lavrov has said (and I’m sure he is correct) that the USA is “agreement incapable”.