Russian and western media outlets are reporting that Obama has offered a deal to the Russians: help us with Iran and we will not deploy the anti-missile system in Europe (see, for example, here). Officially, the American logic goes like that: IF the Iranians drop their nuclear program and IF they stop the development of long-range missiles, THEN there is no more need for an anti-missile system in Europe.
Talk about nonsense…
The reality is, of course, that the anti-missile system in Europe was aimed at Russia, everybody knows that, and the only reason why Obama is preparing to abandon it is the combination of two simple facts:
a) having lost is airbases in Central Asia, the US now needs Russia more than ever before to at least passively tolerate the US war effort in Afghanistan
b) the Russians have come up with a combination of long range and short range missiles (the RS-24 and the Iskander) which completely negate any military advantage the proposed anti-missile system in Europe could have given the USA.
In less than a year, this is yet another major victory for Russia. Having pushed the US military out of Central Asia, having crushed the US proxy in South Ossetia and Georgia, Russia is now forcing the USA into a humiliating step down from its missile plans in Europe.
Some credit has to be given to Obama and his puppeteers for recognizing reality for what it is and for acting on it. Both sides will now make face-saving statements about “no linkage” and the like, but the writing is on the wall: the USA is not nearly the superpower it likes to fancy itself to be. Now – that’s official.
Will the Russians ‘help’ the Americans in dealing with Iran? Yes, sure, but only in a way the Iranians themselves want: to finally get a constructive negotiation going on all the outstanding issues between Iran and the USA including, first and foremost, the situation in Iraq. That is, I predict, the extend of ‘help’ the USA will get from Medvedev.