By Dmitry Orlov and posted with permission
Denis Pushilin, leader of Donetsk, has just ordered a full evacuation. Leonid Pasechnik, leader of Lugansk, did the same. In doing so, they did exactly as I expected, and as I predicted. For all those of you who think that Putin is a mystery wrapped in an enigma, perhaps you should avoid thinking and just read my articles!
A bit less than a year ago, on April 18, 2021, I published an article titled “Putin’s Ukrainian Judo” which was reposted on ZeroHedge and TheSaker. I then translated it into Russian and published it on Aftersock.info where it was positively savaged for being defeatist. The reason I bring it up now is that in that article I explained that evacuation was the only winning move for the Russian side.
In that article I wrote:
The Ukrainian military has been massing troops and armor along the line of separation while the Russian military has pulled up its forces to their side of the border. Shelling, sniper fire and other provocations from the Ukrainian side are intensifying, with the hope of provoking the Russians into moving forces onto Ukrainian territory, thus allowing the collective West to shout “Aha! Russian aggression!” Then they could put a stop to Nord Stream II pipeline, scoring a major geopolitical victory for Washington and follow that up with plenty of other belligerent moves designed to hurt Russia politically and economically.
For the Russians, there are no good choices that are obvious. Not responding to Ukrainian provocations and doing nothing while they shell and invade the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk, killing Russian citizens who live there, would make Russia look weak, undermine the Russian government’s position domestically and cost it a great deal of geopolitical capital internationally. Responding to Ukrainian provocations with overwhelming military force and crushing the Ukrainian military as was done in Georgia in 2008 would be popular domestically but could potentially lead to a major escalation and possibly an all-out war with NATO. Even if militarily the conflict is contained and NATO forces sit it out, as they did in Georgia, the political ramifications would cause much damage to the Russian economy through tightened sanctions and disruptions to international trade.
Those being the obvious bad choices, what are the obvious good ones, if any? Here, we have to pay careful attention to the official pronouncements Putin has made over the years, and to take them as face value. First, he said that Russia does not need any more territory; it has all the land it could ever want. Second, he said that Russia will follow the path of maximum liberalization in granting citizenship to compatriots and that, in turn, the well-being of Russia’s citizens is a top priority. Third, he said that resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine through military means is unacceptable. Given these constraints, what courses of action remain open?
The answer, I believe, is obvious: evacuation. There are around 3.2 million residents in Donetsk People’s Republic and 1.4 million in Lugansk People’s Republic, for a total of some 4.6 million residents. This may seem like a huge number, but it’s moderate by the scale of World War II evacuations. Keep in mind that Russia has already absorbed over a million Ukrainian migrants and refugees without much of a problem. Also, Russia is currently experiencing a major labor shortage, and an infusion of able-bodied Russians would be most welcome.
Domestically, the evacuation would likely be quite popular: Russia is doing right by its own people by pulling them out of harm’s way. The patriotic base would be energized and the already very active Russian volunteer movement would swing into action to assist the Emergencies Ministry in helping move and resettle the evacuees. The elections that are to take place later this year would turn into a nationwide welcoming party for several million new voters. The Donbass evacuation could pave the way for other waves of repatriation that are likely to follow. There are some 20 million Russians scattered throughout the world, and as the world outside Russia plunges deeper and deeper into resource scarcity they too will want to come home. While they may presently be reluctant to do so, seeing the positive example of how the Donbass evacuees are treated could help change their minds.
The negative optics of surrendering territory can be countered by not surrendering any territory. As a guarantor of the Minsk Agreements, Russia must refuse to surrender the Donbass to the Ukrainian government until it fulfills the terms of these agreements, which it has shown no intention of doing for seven years now and which it has recently repudiated altogether. It is important to note that the Russian military can shoot straight across all of Donbass without setting foot on Ukrainian soil. Should the Ukrainian forces attempt to enter Donbass, they will be dealt with as shown in this instructional video. Note that the maximum range of the Tornado-G system shown in the video is 120km.
And should the Ukrainians care to respond by attacking Russian territory, another one of Putin’s pronouncements helps us understand what would happen next: if attacked, Russia will respond not just against the attackers but also against the centers of decision-making responsible for the attack. The Ukrainian command in Kiev, as well as its NATO advisers, would probably keep this statement in mind when considering their steps.
The Donbass evacuation should resonate rather well internationally. It would be a typical Putin judo move knocking NATO and the US State Department off-balance. Since this would be a large humanitarian mission, it would be ridiculous to attempt to portray it as “Russian aggression.” On the other hand, Russia would be quite within its rights to issue stern warnings that any attempt to interfere with the evacuation or to launch provocations during the evacuation process would be dealt with very harshly, freeing Russia’s hands in dispatching to God the berserkers from the Ukraine’s Nazi battalions, some of whom don’t particularly like to follow orders.
The West would be left with the following status quo. The Donbass is empty of residents but off-limits to them or to the Ukrainians. The evacuation would in no sense change the standing or the negotiating position of the evacuees and their representatives vis-à-vis the Minsk agreements, locking this situation in place until Kiev undertakes constitutional reform, becomes a federation and grants full autonomy to Donbass, or until the Ukrainian state ceases to exist and is partitioned. The Ukraine would be unable to join NATO (a pipe dream which it has stupidly voted into its constitution) since this would violate the NATO charter, given that it does not control its own territory.
Further sanctions against Russia would become even more difficult to justify, since it would be untenable to accuse it of aggression for undertaking a humanitarian mission to protect its own citizens or for carrying out its responsibilities as a guarantor of the Minsk agreements. The Donbass would remain as a stalker zone roamed by Russian battlefield robots sniping Ukrainian marauders, with the odd busload of schoolchildren there on a field trip to lay flowers on the graves of their ancestors. Its ruined Soviet-era buildings, not made any newer by three decades of Ukrainian abuse and neglect, will bear silent witness to the perpetual ignominy of the failed Ukrainian state.
History is as often driven by accident as by logic, but since we cannot predict accidents, logic is the only tool we have in trying to guess the shape of the future. Rephrasing Voltaire, this, then, is the best that we can expect to happen in this the best of all possible worlds.
One of the most astonishing check mate moves from Mr. Putin
A genious master stroke.
He really is somebody in this world.
I’m sorry I couldn’t disagree more with you and the author. Ignoring the fact, that moving out the indigenous population on a semi-permanent, or permanent basis (let’s face it Ukraine will not concede this territory), would be political harakiri for Putin.
The whole reason why we’re going through the current drama, is b/c Russia doesn’t want an EU, or a NATO-aligned Ukraine. Russia wants Ukraine to be a buffer country, like North Korea (for China) and like Finland. That’s the goal and if NATO doesn’t give Russia security guarantees that it at this point demands, it will be on like Donkey Kong in the country of Ukraine.
Well, disagreeing 100% makes things simple. I believe you to be 99.9% wrong and 0.1% right: Russia doesn’t want the Ukraine in NATO. But then Hungary already vetoed letting the Ukraine into NATO so that’s a non-issue.
That line of reasoning fails to recognize the reality of the situation. The same naïveté I might add, that resulted in “NATO won’t expand one inch East” assurances not being formally documented as a verifiable clause in a treaty. The same naïveté that resulted in the useless Minsk accords.
Hungary’s leadership can and will change with time and there’re absolutely no assurances that a veto today won’t become, in a couple of short years from now, a go-ahead.
I agree. This whole notion of absorbing the entirety of Donbass into Russia is a non-starter – too clever by half.
For one thing, not everyone in Donbass necessarily wants to be absorbed by Russia. Does Orlov advocate forcing Donbass residents into Russia?
Second, displacements of this sort cost money. Orlov’s notion that it’s less than WWII is irrelevant. That was then, this is now. Why should Russian citizens absorb the cost of supporting another 4 million people who, if they wanted to join Russia, would already have moved there.
It makes far more sense to let Donbass be what it is, and simply insure its security cross-border. If necessary, do the same for more lands to the west until Ukraine is reduced to a rump state in the west.
To do this wholesale displacement of Donbass just to lure Ukraine into a killing zone is, militarily speaking, ridiculous. Russia has no need to do this sort of “tactical retreat” just to deal with the Ukraine military or NATO.
In other words, “That ain’t gonna happen.” Speculations of this sort contribute nothing to the issue.
you usually think better than this.
First, Dmitry called it about a year ago and is due credit.
Second, who said everyone in Donbass is being absorbed? It is voluntary for now, and involves non-combatants. And would not be long-term. How long will the Empire last? Or be able to project power this far? Its life-support systems are themselves expiring as I type. Every additional day Russia does not fight separates Old Europe more from Anglos hell-bent on sacrificing them.. It is one thing to leap into the Abyss on an emotional whim, but after being sober for 5 months?
Third, we have seen what was done to all countries attacked in like manner by AZE – genocide, massive internal displacements, absolute chaos. Some 4-6+ million Syrians remain displaced around West Asia up to now. None of the attacked have recovered. Isn’t an orderly, safe, non-“Trail of Tears” withdrawal preferable? And to deny orcs hostages and human shields? Buildings can be rebuilt.
Fourth, monetary cost is not a consideration given the stakes. And have you seen the oil AND gas bonanza Russia is currently reaping? NS2 is already repaid and some. And Russians (and those with honor codes) valuate a single human life differently.. Would you pay the price of this retreat if it prevented ww3 and finally collapsed the Beast Hegemon? And to prevent more human losses after losing some 50-100 million lives since 1900?
Also IMO, this is not about “the Ukraine military or NATO” – this is a narrative and psychological trench warfare with UKUS. Countering western lies. Demonstrating who is the aggressor and exposing them in front of all mankind. Gathering valuable data for upcoming war crimes tribunals and hangings (best case scenario). Or building righteous anger and the internal will for that moment they need to move the earth under the bastards (God help us all). NATO is irrelevant; you break UKUS – NATO will fall like an overripe fruit. The little dogs will bark but the caravan moves on..
I could go on. Quote Sun Tzu about winning without fighting, etc. See the Saker’s latest on the escalation dominance of Russia on their own border. There is a manifest reason for UKUS current media hysteria. They see nooses swinging gently in the wind as their best case ending.
So this is a genius withdrawal in all respects, but these are rarely popular in the short term.
The acronym should more appropriately be USUK. It better identifies the lead partner and is phonetically a more accurately descriptive term to address them.
Well stated. I’m not going to weigh-in as you’re synopsis pretty well conveys my own feelings about this complicated chess-match.
Except Russia still hasn’t done it. And there is no evidence they will. It also makes no military sense. There are far easier ways to deal with Ukraine than moving an entire population from one country to another, even temporarily.
The current evacuation is simply moving the most vulnerable members of the population to safety – a humanitarian move, nothing more. Orlov’s presumption that this is some “grand plan” of Putin’s is pure speculation. The fact that he “predicted” it is irrelevant since there is no evidence it’s actually going to happen as he predicted. Again, this evacuation shows no signs of being a complete move of the population, temporary or not. If the plan was really to leave Ukraine a deserted area that Russia could use to military decimate the Ukrainian military, everyone would be moved – not just the most vulnerable.
The presumption that such a move would have the outcomes specified is also purely speculative.Removed. Mod. If events turn out as he predicts, I’ll revise my opinion, but not before.
Good call. Russia should HAVE their assurances that Ukraine doesn’t go NATO. It is too much of a homeland for Moscow not just a neighbour. Ukraine is Russia and Russia is Ukraine. I read last week a great article that stated of all the Soviet countries that Russia regrets losing, it’s Ukraine. The two are soooo intertwined.
Нравится не нравится эвакуируй, моя красавица! Brilliant move!
Could not agree with your more Joe… evacuating civilians from Donbas seems like reasonable and considerate idea, however it is only so if this i temporary only and is followed by savage attack on the Ukrainian forces. I do no see how evacuating Donbas does solve Russia’s strategic security problems that stretches as far as the US bases in Poland and Roumania, or even closer to theBaltic states.
Not sure what Putin’s game here is, but it seems too me like he is only delaying the inevitable and the more he delays, the higher will be the cost for Russian citizens.
I really think the the NS-2 is much strong leverage in Russian’s hands that the Russians officials realize. The whole posturing around delaying the opening of the pipeline in German can not last for long. Germany is closing this year their last nuclear plant, so very soon , on days when the wind does not blow and or clouds/night cover they sky, they will not enough electricity to power the electric cars or have power for their energy hungry industry.
So whether Russian reclaim ( rightfully) Novorussia or not, the German and much of central Europe will not have any choice in a year or 2 but to accept the Russian gas regardless. Lest their own population will become restive before.
So far Putin’s posturing has solved nothing at all that I can tell to address the very security claims his administrative has made. Had Russian been run by Lukashenko things would have been very, very different for the NATO hyenas .
No, the whole reason for the debacle of Ukraine is the West-perpetrated coup of 2014 and the discriminatory policies and aggressive actions of the installed governments since.
Ukraina is an arbitrary and artificial brainchild of the USSR. In reality, there are three entities culturally and politically in what used to be Ukraina: the Galichyna, central Ukraina, and the eastern Ukraina or Novorossia.
We shall see whether it will end splitting along these lines or some other scenario will play out but USA actions have turned out to be a kiss of death on her forhead. Too bad.
I agree whole-heartedly! Even though my admiration for Vladdy is knocked down a peg or two courtesy of the Klaus and Vlad lovefest during WEF zoom calls recently, he is doing what he believes is best for Mother Russia and it’s citizens which is more that can be said for the Western world’s dummies in denial!
I just posted this in the open thread and yeah…makes a lot of sense. Good to know that people like Orlov already thought of this a year ago!
“If LDNR evacuates everyone into Russia, then Russia can continue to sit back while Ukraine just destroys more of its own infrastructure/buildings. Nobody to protect, no reason to go in. Genius move, really. Like a weird version of Moscow 1812, only instead of burning & retreating, they simply retreat and let the morons advancing take out anything of value that they would be able to use to rebuild.
Does 404 then get into NATO with no longer having any internal dispute? Or does enough of a military presence stay behind, creating a new Transnistria type zone?”
I don’t think NATO membership is being discussed at all. Hungary pretty much vetoed that idea already.
Dmitry, I remember reading your article and thinking as a quite possible scenario.
I think that, anyway, as long as Crimea is considered part of the Ukraine and is not under Ukrainian control, the Ukraine cannot legally join NATO.
And what happens if NATO continues to upgrade Ukraine’s military and further integrate it into NATO WITHOUT actually granting membership to Ukraine? This is obviously in the cards. Look at the size of the NATO military exercises being conducted in Ukraine starting this month.
Not to mention Lavrov has already said, “We know what such assurances are worth.”
When has NATO won anything? Or the US, for that matter. Looks like one huge Afghanistan coming right up.
Oh…. there are plenty of reasons to go in for Nato and their Ukrainian lap dogs. Like 17,558 km2 of territory closer to the Russian border which is precisely what Russia claims to want to avoid.
Dmitri Orlov knows a thing or two about mouldy bagels.
It may be a good step to take but taken alone it does not solve the problem of the military buildup that’s happening in Ukraine and in NATO countries nearby. So, what will happen next? Option no. 1: Beat back the Ukies, wait for Ukraine to collapse in the aftermath? Option no. 2: Beat back the Ukies but let them advance first to let them bleed out in cauldrons and street fighting, speeding up Ukraine’s subsequent collapse? Is there any other option than to fight and from then onward advance to the Dnepr? The civilians being out of the way helps, of course, because they cannot any longer be held hostage.
Wait for the Uska And Europe to collapse Finically and the us dollar and the euro becomes worth less
and there goes the West greatest weapon.
It’s not possible to wait that long.
Sorry but you will not get the war and the occupation of Ukraine which you obviously are desiring.
Thank you very much to bring back with such clarity that perspective.
Sheer brilliance! Whatever US/NATO throws at the people of Donbas, Russia is already three steps ahead. Step by step the hegemon is getting its feet cut off, its ankles cut off, and eventually it will fall over and bleed out. Then the perps get rounded up, brought to trial, and finally taken to a rendezvous with a gibbet. Won’t that be a glorious day!
This may be a good move by Putin ,but main issue for Russia is it’s security ,Russia can not Tolerate having
the Usks and or England fire a Nuclear missel to Moscow and getting there in 5 to 7 min. Live under thought’s
conditions is not living , Poland and Romain are the closet and Ukraine will be next country to have these weapons.
Thank you for you anayalis
Maybe I’m missing something here but evacuation, retreat and being overwhelmed means giving up territory?
This is built up areas once the Ukies are in they won’t be shifted by missile strike alone, that would involve bitter house to house fighting?
So who’s going to drive them back when they are in?
Anyway they want to cancel nord stream 2 or sanctions they’ll do it anyway they’ll just invent a reason
Spot on observation.
Evacuation of noncombatant civilians does not mean abandoning the territory.
That is what the Palestinians thought as well.
The Israelis terrorize the Palestinian population, drive them out and then take the territory, then let their own settle there and deny the driven out population the right to return. Has been done for 90 years now by the chosen people. And unfortunately successfully.
It means minimizing collateral damage to the citizen evacuees while the contest for the territory is being settled. Non military citizens are of little value in defending anyways. Perhaps their temporary employment in Russia will aid it the chain of supply of this effort, and therefore become assimilated into a more effective overall defense of their republics.
Excellent analysis and a brilliant move by Putin. This is a propaganda war by the West to justify crippling sanctions being put on Russia. It’s not working is it? The West’s puppets are seen shelling civilians and Russia is seen saving them. Exactly the wrong optics! A propaganda coup by Putin. The sound you hear is the gnashing of teeth in DC…
Magnificent analysis thank you Dmitry for your insights.
Seems to me that the LDNR is simply evacuating non-combatants to avoid casualties, hostage-taking, etc. I suggest that someone do the math and see whether it would be even possible to evacuate the entire population using existing bus and train lines and how long this would take.
I don’t think it matters if all are evacuated. It’s the optics. It’s a propaganda coup. Putin the Humanitarian! How can you demonize a leader who is acting to reduce civilian causalities? Besides, if Putin is evacuating civilians, it’s really hard to attribute to him a false flag attack that kills civilians!
Agree – it’s the optics and denial of certain kinds of hybrid activities (to some extent, not 100% of course).
The way I read nazcalito’s post is that they are posing the question as to how long it would take using existing and available – ie real rather than theoretical – transport facilities?
In short how doable in practical rather than theoretical terms is an evacuation on this scale in a context in which the territory being evacuated is subject to lethal shelling/attack within a reasonable timescale?
The US’s intention in “Operation Ukraine” is to impose severe sanctions on Russia and to erect a new Iron Curtain to keep the US’s vassal states as vassal states dependent on the USD and NATO.
Here’s one plausible scenario of military conflict in the very near future. The US (“Ukraine”) attacks across, but just to the east, advancing eastward very slowly, of only a small portion of the contact line, but continues to advance only until Russia is forced to respond by crossing the Ukrainian border.
As long as Russia does not cross the border, the US (“Ukraine”) military will continue to move eastward. US satellites will be recording in full living color the moment Russia “invades” across the border, if it does, and instantly reporting that to “Ukrainian” forces. In the literal minutes after Russian military “something” crosses the border, if it does, the US (“Ukraine”) will very quickly cry out “Ukraine is being invaded by Russia!” and will very quickly retreat to its status quo ante positions (a la WWI trench warfare) and, along with all the leaders of the US’s disgusting vassal states, will call for an immediate cease-fire, to be overseen by the OSCE.
What will Russia do after the US (“Ukraine”) retreats and the inevitable barrage of sanctions comes raining down in the literal minutes thereafter?
Watch the US and EU economies collapse without Russian gas and oil? Seal the deal on said collapse by moving to their SWIFT alternative with China? Gee, I don’t know, it’s almost like Russia hasn’t gamed out that scenario at all…./s
The sanctions are coming whatever Russia does or doesn’t do. So if the LDNR peoples agree then incorporate the two republics into Russia and deal with any consequences using military means if necessary. This is the Crimea solution in and it would surely would have been better to have done the same with LDNR at the same time The last eight years have not brought resolution any closer. The Minsk agreements are never going to solve the issue.
Russia can annihilate the invading forces without boots on the ground.
Don’t forget that Donetsk and Lugansk militia are still there and they’ll definitely receive the fullest support from the Russians with EW, cyberattacks, and possibly artillery fire.
Don’t think that the Ukie military would have a walk in the park.
Russian citizen evacuees = a people without a land, Donbass = a land without a people.
The United Nations Responsibility to Protect doctrine is the vehicle that President Putin can use to justify repelling these barbaric attacks on Donbass by the UAF and their U.S.-NATO sponsor.
See: https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/about-responsibility-to-protect.shtml .
What is the point of these agreements if no nation has the courage to hold up the principles of what is enshrined in them with deeds and not just the nodding of diplomatic heads?
If the U.S.-NATO can invade Iraq, Syria, Libya, etc. without consequences then I ask how far will they be permitted to abuse the sovereignty of lesser nations and the blatant murder of its citizens?
Look at this twitter video:
See: https://twitter.com/i/status/1494694629022871558 .
Innocent children gathered together to be bused out of the impending killing fields into the safety and protection of the loving arms of Mother Russia.
Fear and apprehension felt by these young waifs and their unknown future awaits them. All because men could not do what must be done, which is to destroy the evil instead of placating it and allowing U.S.-NATO to be right up on Russia’s western border with no human buffer to stop them.
Give me a “no-fly” zone now and smash these fascists with all the power that Russia can muster and to hell with the western media and their handler diktats!
Водить свинью через утес!
I am seeing a whole bunch of these “innocent children” on my TV. They are smiling and waving like mad. They are going to Russia!!! Yay!!!
Strange message 🤪
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Judo move or not for me it is a deja-vu. I have lived thru several evacuations of Serbian people during 90’s.
Serbs never come back to their homes. I am confused, next few days will reveal the truth. Is there a strength to take a stand or not ?
It’s easier to take a stand if you don’t have to worry about your wife and children.
This is quite different from Serbs leaving Krajina and Sarajevo in 1995. Those were done in agreement of Milosevic and Tudjman and Izetbegovic, respectively. They were ceded to the enemy side. Serbs also were not protected when leaving Krajina but were left to flee on their own on tractors and such while being bombarded by Ustashe from air and artillery pieces. Shameful and stupid of Milosevic to have believed that those actions would save his skin. One more case of American words being worth nothing.
A great thinker with a great beard. Those chess playing Russians seem to be a few moves ahead of Team Biden at all times.
Esto es demasiado Cayapo… La guerra solo beneficia a los dueños del mundo, para pelear se necesitan dos y si los locos sicópatas de Ucrania títeres de la OTAN no consiguen con quién pelear serán derrotados sin disparar un solo tiro.
This is too Cayapo … War only benefits the owners of the world, to fight, two and if the crazy Sicopathos de Ukraine’s NATO do not get who to fight will be defeated without shooting a single shot.
Great analysis and it looks like Russia is doing just this.But regarding sanctions, I think the US/UK will have their sanctions.They dont need justification they just act.If they want a justification they will make it up.
Now, CNN will use this to convince Dumbmericans that Putin ordered evacuation!
Thanks Mr. Orlov!
How many Dumbmericans still watch CNN? I thought that this number is close to 0 by now.
I gather about half a million (and falling) still watch CNN. About 11 million watch Joe Rogan.
Dmitry Orlov – when are you going to be on Joe Rogan? Countering the lies at a 22:1 ratio.
Not that it matters – I always say the propagandized by definition have no agency, so who cares what they think, really? Power is the one thing you can’t fake.
And wonderful analysis, by the way – thank you! It seems so plausible now. Pull back the civilians from the killing ground.
And for the Ukies it’s Montgomery’s rule updated: “Rule # 1 – never march on the Donbass.”
Excellent move by Russia. Excellent.
That does not make sense, “the propagandized by definition have no agency”. What would be the point of the propaganda otherwise? Our discussions in these forums strengthen our convictions, and help us sway people’s minds, by countering the web of lies. Public opinion does count, and when it sways, it certainly still has agency. We’re not quite at the hungergames (yet)…
Bless you, Dmitry Orlov. Thank you again for sharing your wise and well crafted words. It is reassuring to know what and for whom to pray for those of us who, above and beyond all things, desire a peaceful and secure future for our children.
I think that we are misreading the evacuation. The empire says that the “Russian false flag” could be anything, including a chemical attack.
Well, maybe then the Ukrainian forces are planing to use chemical weapons to ensure a fast collapse of the front. Western media will cry false flag but if the casualties among civilians are high enough then maybe Russia will have to intervene. At least that is the plan.
The best way to counter that, would be to move civilians out and give the troops enough equipment to withstand such an attack.
The chemical weapons are to be used after Russia starts bombing so as to claim Russia used weapons of mass destruction on Ukrainians.
This is a interesting idea but I doubt that it is a long term solution. There is no doubt in my mind that upon securing the Donbas, Kiev and NATO will immediately turn their attention to Crimea, using the same threats of sanctions to achieve the same result ie evacuation of the Russian people. Russia will have conceded the Donbas for exactly zero respite or benefit. Russia could concede all of Russia up to the Urals but the West would still want more. I say this with sadness, as a Scot who has watched Russian and Western relations for the past 40 years. The leaders of the West cannot be reasoned with, justice, humanity and decency to them are signs of weakness, to Russians these are core values. I hope and pray that war can be avoided. If not, long live Mother Russia.
Don’t confuse apples and oranges. Crimea is Russian territory; Donbass is not. And sanctions make no difference.
Donbass was continuously Russian from the time of eKatarina up until Lenin gave it up in 1922.
The post-1917 and current boundaries of Ukraine make no sense from ether a geographic or ethno-cultural point of view. The Yugoslvization of the country (without the bombs) is the best option.
Correct… Donbass and for that matter the entire northern littoral of the Black See has been Russian ever since Ekaterina II removed the murderous Tatar tribes ( Golden Horde and the Nogai tribes) which were frequently invading, pillaging and burning both Moldovan territory to the west and the upper Don river territory to the north. Donbas as as Russian as Smolensk or Barnaul or Sakhalin island. And so is Odessa for that matter. What the hell is even an Ukrainian? Maybe self hating Russian with personality disorders.
The Ukrainians won’t be doing anything other than freeze, since this is a pretext for turning off their pipeline. And the EU will end up freezing too if NS2 doesn’t get turned on soon afterwards.
“And should the Ukrainians care to respond by attacking Russian territory, another one of Putin’s pronouncements helps us understand what would happen next: if attacked, Russia will respond not just against the attackers but also against the centers of decision-making responsible for the attack. The Ukrainian command in Kiev, as well as its NATO advisers, would probably keep this statement in mind when considering their steps”.
They have and they do.
NATO have taken significant steps to deter any escalation of going after “order givers” outside of Ukraine.
The massive exercises involving the whole of Western Europe, especially the naval forces centred around the Meditrainian Sea and Baltic Sea – to include US nuclear weapons seen and reported being deployed to the UK on B52’s (and B61-12 bombs being moved to Germany), plus British systems being moved to Gibralter (choke point) and Cyprus (overlooks Syria) are all clear warnings that NATO will not accept a wider war beyond the borders of Ukraine or the Black Sea, and even the Sea of Japan (sub sightings and incidents in last week).
I agree with the article, that (at this time) the only winning move is “not” to fight directly, and to deny Donbass to Ukraine and deny Ukraine to NATO.
It is a much over used term, but I firmly believe that Russia (with China and Iran) are in a new “Cold War” with the West, a war which will continue for as long as one side or the other can continue to pay for it.
No amount of deterrence will weigh again the urgency of the current situation. Russia doing nothing against the NATO build-up would be like Saddam Hussain watching US troops building up at its gates. Even at the risk of a nuclear conflagration, kinetic war, specifically in Britain and the Mediterranean, would make a lot of sense.
Russia has a window of opportunity before the US acquires hypersonic technology. So a pre-emptive strike is definitely in the cards.
No nation apart from the US has an interest in pushing for military expenses. Russia least than any.
Judo is about using your opponents force against itself. This is, under it all, an economic war. The US/West is in rapid economic decline. This plays into Russia’s hands to help it help the US/West take itself down. Tear up all NG contracts and turn toward China. The US/West will collapse well before they develop hypersonic technology.
Folks in Europe will eventually see the high price of NG complements of the US. There will be no one else to blame (but the US). The “unity” will collapse.
All the local population of a conflict zone move away from the conflict zone this is not a move from Putin this is what always happens in a conflict zone.
Mr Orlov is unjustly trying to be cool.
It was not done in this way in 2014/15. So it’s new in this particular conflict zone. If it’s done very publicly, then it serves to neutralize the Russia-is-the-aggressor narrative, so he’s right on this one too. The effect would be even more pronounced if ukie attacks lead to casualties among people evacuating (hopefully not). Then, a Donbass deserted, even partially, could be used much more effectively as a killing field for ukronazis. Orlov might be somewhat too optimistic, though, as to whether evacuating the Donbass while keeping the territory, in and of itself, would provide a long term solution to the problem with the west.
I don’t see your comment as a good explanation of how this is a Putin Judo move nicely predicted by Mr Orlov (a year earlier lol)…people move away or are evacuated from conflict zones end of story.
The fact is, in the Donbass they mostly stayed put. That has been a defining property of how the conflict played out up until now.
1. evacuation deprives the Ukronazis from using civilians as a human shield and accuse Russia of striking civilians because there are no civilians in the first place.
2. It justifies Russia’s actions because Russia was protecting civilians from harm’s way.
3. Russians and the Donbass militias can take down the Ukronazis w/o fearing about civilians and attack with the extreme effect.
These are always the reasons of evacuations and sometimes the intelligent people should anyways run away and let 2 idiots fight…and enjoy the fireworks from far. The point is Mr Orlov thinks he came up with something genius that no one in the world can think off (in fact he has run out of ideas other than his collapse song ))) )…
I think he is trying to solve the Russia declining population problem…which is genuinly a huge problem for such a vast country. I mean clearly in a decade or 2 there will be no pure slavic Russians left and Russia will mostly be overwhelmed with central asian hordes with 12 children in each family. Rings some Mongolian bells. I think Mr Orlov has Mongolian roots himself so he should be happy ))).
The only way to solve the declining Russian population is entrenching family values and the sanctity of marriage. There are so many divorces and usually each couple has only 1 child. Evacuating couple of million from Donbas and 20 million from around the world (if only) will not solve the Russian declining population problem.
WarGames 1983; “A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.”
Or, as Master Sun said so well: “One mark of a great soldier is that he fight on his own terms or fights not at all.”
Canada military is now executing some “relocations” of its own. Please witness its first movements in this video: https://nitter.net/TheMarieOakes/status/1494724690732290050#m
It shows soldiers with machine guns, weapons of war, maneuvering through city streets and capturing peaceful protesters at gunpoint. How much longer before the Canadian government orders executions of its own people in the name of safety?
To those recognizing Black History Month in the US, it might be useful to ask, what would Martin Luther King make of all this? How should humanity deal with openly murderous, corrupt and contemptible leaders? How much longer will people continue to ignore the hypocrisy of killing people in order to keep people safe? Has the lesson of the US invasion of Iraq, and the subsequent genocide of non-combatants, taught the world nothing?
This is a real teaching moment for the people of the world, children in particular, about the master hypocrisy between Western values and reality. Western leaders want war, not peace.
Putin is brilliant to simply maintain the peace and wait until the West opens up and rains destruction and death down upon itself. Hopefully the future historians are paying close attention.
Canada military is now executing some “relocations” of its own.
Those are police officers moving some idiots out of Ottawa.
There is rumor those “police officers” are actually White Helmets wearing Canadian uniforms. Again, only rumor. Point is to always question what you see. Then question again.
Idiots? Right, just like those “idiot” peaceful American protestors in the 60s fighting for a different set of rights, or the union that fought for living wages. Idiots, right.
Supporting your best interests by seconding your resolve to not take any shill bait.
Yet the zombified majority, having spent too much time on their PID (personal information devices), having amply given away, even self-data-parsing, everything that needs to be known about them to completely manipulate their perception, believe!
What’s more, part of this program has been to instill and empower a visceral hatred of anything deviating from the official narrative.
Unfortunately, this has already been done.
From the side still capable of rational thought, we have to incorporate this sad fact into our analyses, and recognize that this is ultimately one of the root-enablers to the current situation.
There was this guy, I think you’ll remember him, who said, “The media IS the message.”
The situation will not be resolved at the tactical level, mitigated possibly, but not resolved.
We’re into AI-enabled information warfare, primarily aimed at the global 99%.
This is the real struggle.
This is the real threat.
The value set of anybody/ideological adherents, who would develop and use this technology in this manner, strongly suggests an unrepentant hatred of humanity.
Thanks for your comment.
My only addition to this conversation is that all the talks about sanctions are exaggerated. The West has reached its maximum pressure it could apply without hurting itself in the ptocess. If there are still areas Russia could be sanctioned without a repercussion the West would have found ways to impose those sanctions. As it is, I think the Russian’s ambassador to Sweden’s reply to the Swedish foreign ministet captured the reality perfectly: “we don’t care a sh— about your sanctions”, says the ambassador.
The sanctions are not designed to hurt Russia.
The sanctions are designed so that the EU vassals stay onboard with the US/Nato during the coming western fall, and cannot build win-win relationships with China/Russia.
It looks like it is the best plan at this stage. However, it maybe only a short term solution. Basically, the West sees Russia as an enemy because she refuses to accept the dollar based world order. Are Russia and China really serious getting rid of the dollar? The Uncle Shmuel keeps making profit each and every time it stages fake conflicts somewhere around the globe including in Donbas. Soon or later something must be done.
I still sanctions will come for whatever excuse. The main aim of the sanctions is to keep germans down. The negative effekts on Russia might be offset by Chinas help.
That’s basically how I see it too. The view from over here in Japan according to the TV is that Russia has said it will use Novichok on the innocent citizens of Kiev. Given the hysterical tone of an e-mail from a US relative today, who says that “Pooty-Poot” wants World War III, I reckon that’s how it sounds over there too, weasel words be damned.
I wish TV viewers would finally realize “Fool me once, shame on you,” but that’s just wishful thinking. Oh goodness how I worry for the Ukrainians!
Hello from Orren, who hosted you at “The Age of Limits” Conferences 10 years ago.
The final chess move on the Russian side… In the event of a partial or full Ukrainian invasion of the Donbass, is to partially or fully close the Ukrainian gas pipelines.
In the face of the western media campaign of “Russia is Invading”; actual Ukrainian “boots on the ground” in those republics, and the evacuation of a sizable segment of the Donbass republic’s civilian population, would create a sizable and believable international justification for the pipeline closure.
This would then force the real issue of all of the posturing, will Germany continue to pay the price for the United States policy towards Russia of the past 30 years? With Ukraine’s gas lines closed it is either NordStream 2 or European (if not global) depression.
We have seen many signs that France, Germany and others are asking themselves hard questions about adhering to an American policy that is clearly to their long-term disadvantage. Given the circumstances I outline come to pass, Europe can make only one possible choice. Functional independence from American NATO policy.
To take this armchair strategy further; without gas transit revenue Ukraine will shortly collapse and will likely devolve into a semi-civil war between the country west of Lvov, and everything else. Give it 5 to 10 years of simmering and much of Ukraine east of the Dnieper will become a functioning republic, aligned with Russia.
Best Wishes All
Good to hear from you!
The most important thing from the Russian perspective is to sort the Ukrainians into Russians and non-Russians. The Russians can move to Russia and the non-Russians can pretty much go to hell. Viewed from that perspective, pipelines, Germany, France—who the hell cares? With the US it’s just a matter of suffering its presence on the world scene for just a little while longer. Russia wants to build 3 major cities in Siberia and it needs people who want to move there. They have to speak Russian and act Russian and be loyal Russian subjects, or it won’t work. The evacuation will be a giant propaganda spectacle for internal consumption, showing Russians that Russia takes care of its own. Meanwhile, Russia may sever electricity lines and coal shipments to the Ukraine, and Belarus may shut down diesel deliveries to it, just to show how much it sucks not to be Russian.
Hello there Mr. Whiddon (and Orlov), I was a guest on your land at the conference 10 years ago. I still value the time and the opportunity to meet the speakers. I am not going to interject much on the situation today. Except, has enough been said that the Pres of Ukraine is a comedian that played the President of Ukraine on TV? Can the UK elect Mr. Bean for Prime Minister when The Joker’s term is over?
It expands Putin’s future options on both warfare and narrative, with less risks.
The Ukies will still try to take and hold the area, but without many civilians around, it will easier for the breakaway forces and Putin to mow the grass. And after this? Ask after the grass is trimmed multiple times; Putin can last longer than Ukraine in that game. At least the civilians won’t be sitting ducks in the meantime.
The recent announcements by the Donbass leadership vindicates Orlov’s suggestions of a year ago. It’s worth mentioning to the defeatists that, one: the evacuation is intended as a temporary expedient to move the vulnerable out of harms way, and two, I don’t know who is conceding territory. An evacuation entails moving civilians, not the military. Moving the civilians to a safe location creates a free fire zone that can be turned to toast if the Ukrainians dare to step into it.
But also noteworthy, and a topic nobody has commented on, is Orlov’s underlying concern with Russian repatriation. He mentioned that there are about 20 million expats scattered here and there and the government should do more to smooth the way for their return. A successful resettlement program, whether temporary or permanent, would do much to encourage the refugees of the 90s that their native country still welcomes them and is well able to accomodate their needs.
A resettlement plan cannot offer returnees better terms than current citizen-residents. The resentment would be huge, among the top reasons.
Putin’s plan to date has been to improve the lot of Russians in Russia.
That has been a two decade challenge and is ongoing.
Expats have for their own reasons have sought to create a better life elsewhere. They or their children will seek to return if they see “greener grass”.
You are just making that up, aren’t you? How many Russians who have returned to Russia have you spoken to? I know lots of them. Your “greener grass” comment shows that you don’t understand anything at all about Russia.
The evacuation was the right move. It takes the civilians out of the equation and creates a situation where if the Ukraininan army breaks through, you have a situation where army regulars who are Russian are being asked to kill other Russians. The only ones who want to do that are the Ukro Nazis and they are very limited in number.
I love how half the comments are proclaiming Putin a genius for doing this.
Except he hasn’t done any such thing. So such congratulations would seem to be premature. What is happening is trying to move 700,000 women and children out of the way – nothing more. When the entire Donbass moves, then we can congratulate Putin. Until then, it pure speculation.
Russia’s strategic depth, not to mention military power, is something that we Europeans do not have, and thus that course of action by Russian leaders does not even come to our minds.
Similarly, I cannot help noticing that Russian thinkers hardly pay attention to a key characteristic of European reality which does not exist in Russia: which is that we are not not a united community, we have no justice, fairness, or respect towards each other’s countries, and in fact some countries inside Europe are being eaten alive by others. Given that fact, how do you expect we, rabid dogs, to treat properly Russia or any other country? How?
This is a wonderful analysis of the Ukraine situation and how it probably will be resolved. I doubt that the Americans or their Nato vassal states are capable of acting with good-will and, as a consequence, are incapable of resolving this crisis in the best interests of the Donbass population.
It is not possible to evacuate 5 million people in a hurry, even to a large, welcoming country, without many of them dying. The forced WWII evacuations killed millions from cold, hunger and disease even before enemy action – trains and road columns of evacuees from East Prussia were strafed by allied aircraft.
Even where governments do their best to make the evacuation as peaceful as possible, they can do little once two groups decide they hate one another enough to kill. An aunt of mine survived a journey on one of the “trains of death” that criss-crossed the Punjab in 1947 by hiding under the corpses in her compartment. Gangs of Hindus would stop trains carrying Muslims to Pakistan and kill everyone on board, so that when the train pulled into its Pakistani destination station and railway staff opened the doors, only corpses fell out. Likewise, gangs of Muslims would stop trains taking Hindus to India and kill everyone on board, so that when the train arrived at its Indian destination……
The evacuation order has to be theatr, to open the way for Russian military intervention. The temptation for the Ukrainians (or Turks) to use Turkish drones to generate “buses of death” would be too great if it were for real.
Any action to “temporarily” move ethnic Russians out of Eastern Ukraine, without a follow up plan to move them back, is to de facto cooperate with the the current Ukrainian desire to ethnically cleanse Eastern Ukraine of Russian influence. In fact it speeds the process.
I might be convinced of the soundness of this plan if the second half were articulated.
Evacuation of the civilians doesn’t mean evacuation of the fighting force. Putin was always about saving lives, this is a prudent move while the fight is being resolved. I have to point out that it is extremely naive to believe that Russia would allow her problems to move further east, while trying to move them further west. Take following point from someone who watched his parents being expelled ( I expelled myself years before) out of Serbian Krajina. No one wants to be a refugee! 3.5 million of them?? Give it another try…
The “collective” West is as stubborn and obstinate as a pupilish “mackindergarten” to block NS2. They don’t need grenades and snipers to unilaterally cancel the treaty; they just do it like the USA did with Iran. They simply break the contract. They are used to that.
Unlike Assad, who didn’t want a pipeline, the Germans wanted the pipeline and now they just don’t want it anymore. Basta.
The supposed ally has graciously offered to sell liquid gas to the Germans for a 4x higher price. The other Europeans also like this idea. Lack of fidelity to the treaty is compensated for by the most hair-raising distortions and banal lies. Critics who warn against these corruption-driven political decisions are vilified as ” Putinversteher ” or Russenversteher or ” communist friends “.
There is a lot to be said for evacuating the civilians, 4.6 million people. It would be a unique humanitarian action. The catch is that this will be interpreted by the impartial, objectively reporting swashbucklers of the infotainment industry in the so-called civilized democratic world as flight. Who breaks contracts and lies must take care that the own lie structure endures. A preventive evacuation from violence is nevertheless an expulsion. The Orthodox Christians from Croatia and Bosnia could give a very vivid testimony if I remember correctly the NATO orchestrated offensive ” Oluja ” of 1995.
Well, and as far as the Minsk Agreement is concerned, that is simply broken like all other treaties. The so-called civilized democratic world is used to that by now. This world, at least in the European sphere, feels so threatened and begs since 1990 to keep this obsolete NATO. As I said, fidelity to the treaty does not even count the paper on which the treaty was written.
I wish I was there to fire missiles at NATO forces.
Russia needs to launch ultrasonic rockets at the homes of the elites in EU who are behind all this.
Its the only way to deal with this.
I can’t accept the notion that the refugee situation is permanent in nature, effectively a population increase for Russia and more voters. Such a supposition rests on the assumption that these people want to settle in Russia. I have a hard time accepting that. These lands have been in their families for generations – they are married to the land. Their history is soaked into that land and indistinguishable from its people. What does Mr Orlov believe that the men and women staying behind and fighting are doing there? Fulfilling Russia’s desire for a buffer between Russia and the West? Defending a no man’s land for the sake of geopolitics? I think not. Those men and women are fighting for their land and have no intention whatsoever of leaving it for Russia, or Kiev or any other entity. Only a person disconnected from the land and happy to settle in another country could proffer such a conclusion, in my opinion.
So I believe this evacuation is temporary, until the issue is resolved by some means.
IMHO it’s a very plausible scenario. It aranges all the pieces of the puzzle quite neatly. Thank you for sharing your analysis.
Ho what a brillant idea…
Tear out 4 millions of people from their home and the land of their father and ancestor.
Sure they will go out in singing and beat their hands of joy.
Really there’s a time to be serious.
I already see the big titles in west médias: ” the horrible Poutine force a monstruous exhile of millions poor fox in a proof of his inhumanité”.
No really, Dimitry, please cool down.
History is as often driven by accident as by logic, but since we cannot predict accidents, logic is the only tool we have in trying to guess the shape of the future. Rephrasing Voltaire, this, then, is the best that we can expect to happen in this the best of all possible worlds.
It is said of John Wesley that he prevented England from plunging into the horrors of the French Revolution by his itinerant preaching of the gospel of Christ and I bring this up only to ask a question about where is the Church of Christ in all of this? Surely there are many God fearing folk in Ukraine and they shouldn’t be silenced by politicians who think that Christianity has no say or part in the political process! That would be and is a mistake especially for someone like me who understands the words:
“The Lord will cause people to hear his majestic voice and will make them see his arm coming down with raging anger and consuming fire, with cloudburst, thunderstorm and hail.” (Isaiah 30:30)
I doubt very many would want to see in Ukraine or Russia what is written here about getting one “A” back again!?!?!?!?!
and John Wesley knew very well about the work of Divine Communication in relation to climate change. The weather was affected by his life in some truly glorious ways as his diary fully describes.
“Monday, 17. As we were walking toward Wapping, the rain poured down with such violence that we were obliged to take shelter till it abated. We then held on to Gravel Lane, in many parts of which the waters were like a river. However, we got on pretty well till the rain put out the candle in our lantern. We then were obliged to wade through all, till we came to the chapel yard. Just as we entered, a little streak of lightning appeared in the southwest. There was likewise a small clap of thunder and a vehement burst of rain, which rushed so plentifully through our shattered tiles that the vestry was all in a float. Soon after I began reading prayers, the lightning flamed all around it, and the thunder rolled over our heads. When it grew louder and louder, perceiving many of the strangers to be much affrighted, I broke off the prayers after the collect, “Lighten our darkness, we beseech thee, O Lord,” and began applying, “The Lord sitteth above the water flood; the Lord remaineth a king forever” (Ps. 29:10) Presently the lightning, thunder, and rain ceased, and we had a remarkably calm evening. It was observed that exactly at this hour they were acting Mac Beth in Drury Lane, and just as the mock thunder began, the Lord began to thunder out of heaven. For a while it put them to a stand; but they soon took courage and went on. Otherwise it might have been suspected that the fear of God had crept into the very theater!”
History has a great deal to teach let us not bury it as some have and continue to do.
I’d say its long past time to learn the truth about climate change and not continue to be lied to, yes, or does one like the lies instead?
and O there was wasn’t there a reason as to why this came down to us:
“See, the storm of the Lord will burst out in wrath, a whirlwind swirling down on the heads of the wicked. The anger of the Lord will not turn back until he fully accomplishes the purposes of his heart.
In days to come you will fully understand it clearly.” (Jeremiah 23:19–20)
Let us revisit God’s Judo please before well we find Science through the Military giving us:
In San Diego, I talked with Captain Eddy. He had been with the expedition in the Marshall Islands on November 1, 1952, when America exploded her first hydrogen bomb. In a sober voice, Captain Eddy said, “No one could visualize the awfulness of that sight unless he were there in person.” Two hundred miles above the Pacific, the mighty hydrogen bomb was detonated. The blast lighted up thousands of miles of Pacific sky. At Auckland, New Zealand, 3,800 miles away from the scene of the blast, New Zealanders said the ocean showed a reflection that was blood red. “The scientists present at the scene were dreadfully shaken,” said Eddy. “They thought they had set the heavens aflame with a chain reaction of exploding atoms that would surely go around the world.” On returning from his mission, Captain Eddy asked to be transferred to another department of service and was given a position in the field of seismology, studying earthquakes back in the South Pacific.
I think you are right on target. It would be a super smart move that would create panic in Washington. Strike of genious!
Нравится не нравится эвакуируй, моя красавица! Brilliant move? Putin addresses nation tonight, we’ll see.
Whilst i totally agree that the strategy of emptying the area of citizens
1) demonstrates a caring attitude
2) allows a clear field of fire…
3) leaves the invader with nothing much to do – as was done in the napoleonic invasion…
I tend to disagree with the view that:
” the political ramifications would cause much damage to the Russian economy through tightened sanctions and disruptions to international trade”
I just dont see the Russian economy as being so brittle that it desperately needs to care about sanctions and trade with the West. That is something that is also repeated ad-nauseam by the western MSM… like “Russia will get a nasty shock if it does this or that”
Sure, in the short term Russia actually benefits from the oil and gas price hikes – but it would benefit even more from cutting these ties altogether…I bet every western politician will be flying to Moscow like Yo-Yos, to get the Russians to stop Russian sanctions aka withholding raw materials, against the West.
In this sense i respect the reasons for Russian caution but there has to be a tipping-point where they can say “enough is enough, now WE act the way we want it to be…”
I enjoyed and appreciate your analysis, very much.
More than anything else, I find your baseline assumption for making your evaluations, astonishing, if true, and the trend line strongly supports the ascertation,
My perspective from Zone A is that the grifting class, dedicated to their only “skill“, i.e. flying below any moral radar, as necessary, to attain control of policy creation and implementation positions throughout society, to satiate their neurotic endless insecurity, have no other, and traditionally thought of as competence for the position they occupy, real skills?!
It’s a clown show.
Under different circumstances it would be hilarious, putting even Monty Python to shame.
But those are not the circumstances we, humanity, face now.
There is so much material to draw upon, but, for me, this is representative:
Liz Truss, UK Minister of Foreign Affairs, so designerly attired, always fashion-pronto ready for the photo-op, any time, any place, is shown stylishly walking along with her entourage, in unusually mild weather, fully done up in designer, Russian-motifed fur, responds to Sergi Lavarov’s above-and-beyond patients to establish common ground in the physical universe, as we know it, seeking acknowledgement of Russian undisputed sovereignty over (her long-held territories) Rostov and Voronezh. Minister of Her Majesty’s government, Truss replies,
Holy Fk’in S__t!
One can only imagine how such people attain such positions!?
But after hysterical incompetence on this scale, that they retain their positions, foreshadows inevitable collapse of the west’s countries (aka, toadie vassals).
All the while, those paying attention ask ourselves,
But back to Putin, his play, and just as interesting, the manner of his play.
Imagine, a current world leader, following a well-observable trend of steadily increasing dis-ingenuousness, ineptitude, failure, and avoidance of all accountability:
a. describing a rubric by which their government will assess events, and making it policy,
b. publishing responses based on events that transpire, as measured according to the rubric, in an accurate and balanced manner
c. taking logical mitigation actions, to circumstances, again, as laid out in the rubric, and as published policy
d. then knowing, in advance, by extrapolating incredibly consistent data point trend lines, how the incompetent, malicious clown puppets to fulfill the will of their masters, to paint a propaganda carpet-bombing narrative according to their own, socio-pathic value structures
e. and taking the best possible actions as published policy, that happen to be aligned to the published policy of the so-called west, but which the west completely ignores?!
Isn’t that what is happening here?
I’m in awe at the person(s) responsible for doing this, on many levels.
Despite the trying time humanity is facing, regardless of one’s own political persuasions, the public figure who has established theirself as one of, if not the, most significant figures of our last 100 years is this guy, Putin. (and his team of actually proficient in what they are supposed to be doing, associates)
(actually a Canadian Intelligence master coup in five-dimension chess; I’ve always known the Putin, is the rather cheeky cover for his agency codename, “Poutine“*)
*non-Canucks please see background info, if you care: https://www.slurrp.com/article/poutine-how-the-classic-canadian-dish-came-into-being-1645186738374
DM: love the article, thank you – dc
“The Donbass would remain as a stalker zone roamed by Russian battlefield robots”
Such a situation can’t be a satisfactory solution for the actual inhabitants of the Donbass, who naturally love their land, their homes, and the children their schools and friends. They may help solve a labor shortage problem in Russia, as the article says, but that does not compensate for having to leave their land and homes and loved ones. It’s amazing that the article ignores the major personal human tragedy which those evacuees then experience, and that therefore it does not present a prompt or efficient solution to it, or a practical end to the unique drama that those people are living through. I doubt that Putin is thinking like this article says he is (I don’t think so). The author takes past statements of Putin as if they were like a fixed law – but that’s not looking at real life either.
It is more logical to consider this major evacuation as something temporary, and not long-term because “long term” means a catastrophe for the Donbass/Lugansk people, So, this major move, with the fact that it must be temporary in order to serve those people, does gravely imply a near-term deadline for this situation or evacuation to end, after which all of them can come back if they want to. I’d say Putin must want all of them to return to their homes and lives in this year (2022). Unless they announce it so, I cannot attribute the following impractical result goal to Putin, let alone to the political leaders of Donbass/Lugansk:
“The Donbass is empty of residents but off-limits to them or to the Ukrainians. The evacuation would in no sense change the standing or the negotiating position of the evacuees and their representatives vis-à-vis the Minsk agreements, locking this situation in place until Kiev undertakes constitutional reform, becomes a federation and grants full autonomy to Donbass, or until the Ukrainian state ceases to exist and is partitioned.”
Dunno if it’s “brilliant” or if it is as some, [who are eager for other people to fight their wars], have inferred…”cowardly”.
But, it’s probably the best thing Putin can do with the idiotic situation created by the 3LA’s – Albright/Cheney/Hillary/Obama 24 year administration. When dealing with maniacal leaders, the world is neither black or white just depressingly dull shades of grey. In another time, Putin would shine on the world stage but, in this time he must bear the slings and arrows of DC’s armchair quarterbacks, men & women who hubristic attitude stems from having never taken the field as anything more than a punter.
It’s sad to live out my days in a time where fools rule the western world. I was born into a very different world, that year of Sputnik lit a bonfire of creativity and hope in the USA…only to be extinguished by unelected officials who wantonly disregarded their constitutional duties. When the Dulles Bros had John Kennedy assassinated, just the as the “old money” of Rome had once done to emperors for not being villainous enough, the decline began, good spirited naivete evaporated into a jaded cloud of venality, a state of affairs vastly preferred by the ruling class.
It’s much easier to manipulate people who can not see a brighter future. And so it goes.