By Aram Mirzaei for The Saker Blog
August was an eventful month for the Syrian Army and its allies as the battle for northwestern Syria saw a breakthrough after months of static frontline movements. Just like in the previous 3 years, the month of August has been one accompanied by important victories for Damascus. The Syrian Army managed to break through the jihadist lines at the Khan Sheikhoun front and from there steamrolled through the entire frontline, eventually encircling and trapping the jihadist militants in a pocket in northern Hama. Despite counteroffensives launched by Tahrir Al-Sham and their allies from the “Rouse the believers” operations room, the SAA managed to hold on to the newly liberated areas.
With this development, Hama city and Christian towns such as Mhardeh are now safe from the encroaching jihadist threat. This offensive should be expanded now that the Syrian Army still has the initiative, especially with the jihadist morale still shaken by the loss of their doorway into Hama. It is important for Damascus to clear out the remainder of the Latakia province as well as western Aleppo since both these areas are heavily populated and hold strategic value. If Latakia and Aleppo are cleared, then the jihadist threat will be contained to a single province in the country, leaving them pretty much besieged in Idlib as Ankara’s support seems to be fading, as evident by their passiveness during the Syrian Army’s August offensive.
Since the conclusion of the offensive, with a new ceasefire having been declared and expired, the Syrian Army is said to be amassing troops near the Al-Ghaab front in a potential move to completely kick the jihadists out of Hama and thereby finally paving the way for the liberation of Jisr Al-Shughour. This news seems to have been expected by the Jihadists as the Jaysh Al-Izza terrorist outfit has already begun making preparations for the upcoming battle, reportedly sending over 2000 men to the Western Hama countryside. The Syrian Army would do well to be careful here as the key hilltop town of Kabani, overlooking Jisr Al-Shughour still hasn’t been liberated.
Meanwhile, last weekend saw more than half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production go down in flames as the Saudi Aramco oilfields and refineries came under heavy drone attacks. The attacks caused the greatest drop in oil production in history, prompting oil prices to jump 19 percent. If oil prices rise further, the world will inch closer to a global recession, which, among other things, could cost Trump his reelection. Immediately after the attacks, the Yemeni Houthis issued a statement where they took responsibility for the attacks with the movement’s spokesperson General Yahya Sare’e adding that 10 drones were deployed against the sites at Khurais and Abqaiq. “This was one of the largest operations which our forces have carried out deep inside Saudi Arabia. It came after careful intelligence and cooperation with honorable and free people inside Saudi Arabia,” he said without elaboration.
Washington was quick to dismiss the Houthi claim of responsibility when Trump said that Washington has “reason to believe that we know the culprit,” noting that Washington is “locked and loaded depending on verification” and is waiting to “hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack.” The same response was voiced by Pompeo and Lindsey Graham who called for Washington to strike Iran in an attempt to “break the regime’s back”.
Surely Washington understands how embarrassing this debacle is for them. The Saudis have spent hundreds of billions of dollars on purchasing US military equipment and weapons. Equipment and weapons that Washington has spent quite some time claiming is superior to anything else the world has to offer. Last week, a Saudi prince took to twitter and claimed that Saudi Arabia could “destroy Iran in 8 hours”, adding that Iran’s military technology belong to the “museum”.
That same claimed superior weaponry failed to stop a single attack that took out half of the kingdom’s oil production. This makes me wonder if they’re laying the blame on Iran in order to cover up the even greater embarrassment, that American and Saudi military forces and their networks of advanced air defenses never detected the Yemeni drones that were launched on Saturday to strike oil facilities deep inside Saudi Arabia, proving futile the billions of dollars that the Riyadh regime has spent on them to protect its territories. What message does this send to US vassals around the world? In an attempt to downplay the uselessness of the Patriot system, Pompeo, sounding surprised by the vastness of the operation, said: “This is an attack of a scale we’ve just not seen before.”
Really? Never seen before? So the thousands of drone strikes that Washington has launched across the Islamic world is something that they’ve never seen before?
In any case, Pompeo immediately traveled to Riyadh to assure Washington’s vassals that everything is under control, and to discuss “potential responses”, calling the incident “an act of war”. By now, this blame game has become routine, Washington keeps using the same miserable strategy of intimidation, thinking it will work at the 500th attempt.
So here we are again, another dubious incident in which Tehran is held responsible, without any evidence presented. Of course, Tehran didn’t just stand idly by while Washington made these threats, both Ayatollah Khamenei and foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif issued separate responses, vehemently denying Iran’s role in the attack and warning that any attack on Iran would spark an all out war. Khamenei also went on to talk about the importance of not falling for the failed US maximum pressure campaign, which this is all about. Speaking on Tuesday, Khamenei said entering talks with the US under the current circumstances would be tantamount to surrendering to Washington’s pressure campaign. “Negotiating would mean Washington imposing its demands on Tehran. It would also be a manifestation of the victory of America’s maximum pressure campaign,” he noted.
Thus, the Islamic Republic has correctly calculated that Washington’s maximum pressure campaign is nothing but a bluff to intimidate Iran into entering negotiations. Khamenei said “I had already said that America’s objective of [pursuing] talks is to impose [its demands], but they have become so insolent that they even speak about this openly.”
“The US regime is after making its domestic rivals and the Europeans accept this as a definitive policy that maximum pressure is the only way to confront Iran,” added Ayatollah Khamenei. “Their objective in [offering to hold] talks is to prove to everyone that the policy of maximum pressure has yielded results, and that Iranian authorities were forced to come to the negotiating table despite what they said.”
The most probable conclusion is that there won’t be a war. Washington knows very well that it cannot afford a regional war, especially not now when Washington has been exposed for not being able to defend its vassals. If indeed Iran was behind this attack, then one can imagine that if a single drone strike took out half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production, imagine what an all-out war would result in for Washington and its vassals. The consequences of this debacle can be very severe for Washington in the future as Moscow has already offered the Arab states to purchase Russian weaponry instead, slowly outmanoeuvring Washington as was the case with Turkey and the S-400 deal. It is a real pathetic mess that Washington has got itself into. Washington’s own allies won’t even back their lies. “We are not aware of any information that points to Iran,” Japan’s Defense Minister Taro Kono told reporters at a briefing on Wednesday.
“We believe the Houthis carried out the attack based on the statement claiming responsibility,” he added, referring to the Yemeni group incorporated into the armed forces fighting back a Saudi-led war on Yemen.
Washington’s list of options grows thin, the US better retract its words, repent and return to the nuclear accord that it has violated or see itself fall even further into decay as Washington’s days of being the sole unipolar power that everyone used to fear are quickly fading away.
When the empire is openly mocked and found to be butt naked, the gig is finally up. Best to bow out gracefully rather than try and take everyone down with you Uncle SAM.
The Campaign of Maximum Pressure could be renamed: ‘the last wad shot’.
Everywhere the US has pressured its adversaries (Afghanistan, North Korea, China, Russia, Iran, Syria, Venezuela for starters), the Hegemon has shot its wad and now stands limp, spent.
The hybrid wars against these sovereign nations have all come up a cropper. And these campaigns of maximum pressure are wars. They are waged with every weapon that is non-kinetic, and in some cases accompanied by kinetic attacks (some done by proxies, terrorists).
Continuing these wars despite their futility adds to the ludicrous nature of hegemony that has lost its leverage as the New Era of Multilateralism dawns.
The bulwark of Russia and China makes every effort by the US fail.
The only option left to force an outcome the US wants is full kinetic combat. Likely against Venezuela first using a variety of neighboring forces. Second would be the US in Syria turning against the Russians. Last, would be a regime-changing attack on Tehran, coupled with a US-Israeli ground assault to take all of Lebanon.
So, if madness consumes the US military-hegemony, then it will take war, and several are manageable and winnable.
The hegemon is blood-thirsty and requires a final combat.
There are no mediations or mechanisms in between the adversaries. What has delayed the US from going full “crazy” has been a chicken-hearted liberal bent that swept through most of the institutions of the West during Obama. Now, we have the chickenhawks in the think tanks. War is desired by them.
Nearly every day we have uniformed hawks and chickenhawks theorizing victories in the South China Sea, on the Korean Peninsula, across the Straits in Taiwan, and just yesterday and today, a fantasy of attacking Kaliningrad.
They began another military coup inside Turkey, but Erdogan has crushed it again. Several hundred officers involved.
They are moving more heavy equipment and manpower into Syria. Turkey says the Kurds have received 32,000 truckloads of logistical support.
Real war takes the US six months to build up logistically what it thinks it needs. The process in the ME has begun. Who it is aimed at is to be determined.
“a US-Israeli ground assault to take all of Lebanon.”
Shades of Ronnie Raygun and Sharon the Lion!
Given Trump’s reelection plans, war is unlikely until after November 2020.
“So, if madness consumes the US military-hegemony, then it will take war, and several are manageable and winnable.”
This part is interesting to me. Firstly, hasn’t the Empire basically been at war most of its existence? (Especially since 9/11, Yugoslavia, Serbia before that, Gulf War I.)
You as well as I know the hegemony hasn’t really won very many of them (or whatever phrasing they couch the concept of war in). Will it take in a peer such as Russia, or 2nd rate peer ie Iran or China? I certainly hope not, and don’t believe they would be so stupid to. Because chances of winning a war with any of those countries is practically 0.
Also, I was of the understanding that Obama was sacking, retiring generals who wouldn’t be entirely malleable, “yes men” and would prove to be trouble for the Neocons at some later date? I must have been mistaken. Under Obama, they managed to get a lot of dirty work done, ie Libya, Ukraine. It’s a sideball Obama signing onto the JCPOA, however, and that is where I begin to ponder what you stated.
Things are constantly in flux, dynamic as the universe itself. I don’t care much for my mortality (visiting an old, deceased friends grave at thus moment. So peaceful here.) but I do worry for my parents and brother. I have no children, no female companion or friends (many are now on the other side, sadly). I heed what you (or was it Auslander?) said yesterday about not wishing for the collapse of the Washington hegemon. A slow, measured collapse or dismantling process is the best option for all involved. I do wish this insanity, imperialism to stop already.
Thanatopia has been ‘at war’ for 222 out of its 243 years, ie 89%. And most of it has been slaughter and genocide, not war. The USA’s ‘heroes’ really hate tangling with dangerous enemies. Give them Grenada or the slums of Panama City every day, and order another truck-load of medals!
@the Empire basically been at war most of its existence?
From its very beginning! It was born from war, first against its ‘Mother Country’.
Small historical insight. The first ‘whistle-blower’ legislation in the USA was introduced in 1783 to protect those who revealed the torture of English POWs during the Revolutionary War. Torture- ‘As American as Apple Pie’.
The place the US military would battle Russia is in Syria. Russia has a small force on two bases, protected by S-400s which a massive swarm of drones and missiles could deplete and overwhelm. The Russians would be forced out of Syria or lose a lot of personnel.
As the attack commenced, the US could mobilize tens of thousands of ISIS fighters from al Tanf and head them toward Damascus, Latakia and Tartus.
The airstrips at Latakia, with craters in them, grounds the Russian aerospace force. Easily done if the US wants to do it.
The ceasefire offering from the American side would be: the Russians and Assad leave or the US, NATO, the coalition of Arabs, the Kurds, SDF (Kurds and AQ), the Syrian rebels would fight against the Syrians and Russians.
Would Russia stay, fight and lose hundreds, perhaps a thousand men?
A coordinated attack in scale would be very difficult for the Syrians. Idlib’s al Nusra would be part of the movement at their northern and western flank. There are 30,000-60,000 fighters there, with air cover the next day, could threaten the Syrian government in all its big cities.
And Trump can be sold on this because most of the casualties will be suffered by non-Americans, by proxies. Knocking Assad out, humiliating Putin, ridding the ME of Russia, depriving Iran of its bridge through Syria to Lebanon are all high value in the “sales pitch”.
Syria is a massive failure of the US, politically, geopolitically and militarily. It could be reversed in one night of treachery. All it takes is the madness of the US Military and neocon psychopathy.
Larch: I doubt even the US is crazy enough to contemplate such a scenario – but who knows, we keep thinking it can’t get worse, then it does? But it is certainly not competent enough to execute it. Syria is on Russia’s doorstep, so to speak. A salvo of Kalibr, Khinzal and Iskander would put an end to such a clown show in minutes. And as events in Saudi have recently shown, the US has no air defences What remained of the US forces would be out of the ME in days. And I’m not even considering any escalation – eg Iran/Hezbolla wiping out Israel/Saudi Arabia.
I share your analysis as well. The US doesn’t have the balls to go toe to toe with Russian military (nor would they have much of any initiative, and if they did manage to chase Russia out of the ME, then what? What’s their next move? Esp considering Hezbollah would likely unleash missile hell on the USA BFF, Israel. Won’t be much left protecting at that point.
The US would likely also attack Iran if they were going to be so daft to attack Russian MIL (and SAA, PMU prob be targeted, obviously and thus given the green light to initiate guerilla warfare on the US forces, vulnerable as they are and would be given such a scenario (people tend to get creative when they have nothing left to lose, I read about the Yemen military earlier, sure same applies to groups such as the PMU, Hezbollah, Iran’s Quds forces, I wouldn’t discount them becoming quite adept and surely guided by Spirit, creative in their methods, strategies of warfare vs the US and its demonic allies in the MENA)
So then, also for Iran, since it is all or nothing, survival on the line, you know how that plays out, don’t need to spell it out. Depending on which way Turkey and Egypt go, and where China comes in, so many variables we can only theorize how it all plays out one way or another. I appreciate Larchmonter’s ever sober analysis, but this won’t be isolated to Syria, with asymmetrical warfare and the like coming into play. The resistence knowing if they lose Russia’s presence, backing then they will be quite vulnerable. Somehow I think there must be some kind of loose alliance, defense pact for such a scenario from Russia’s allies in the ME?
Just so many variables! I’m not discounting, however, the stupidity of the Hegemon. They just may try for such a scenario as Larchmonter laid out. At the end of the day, with the US being the one chased out of the ME, then what follows? Suffering immense losses to personnel, equipment, ships, etc. As others have spoken to in other articles, can we expect the nukes to come out? Also, Israel; they have nukes, if they know they are going to be decimated by Hezbollah and Iran’s missiles, do they let off their nukes? This is just such a sh!tshow already.
the boots on the ground becoming more scarce to find every day.
the tech gap in military terms widening.
More such gap to expect from Beijing in a few years.
Having its own nationals as the ‘boots’ only in dreams.
No first class soldiers to be found in a society long sleep swinging in a two ocean security.
Laid in a soft cushion of a ”dollar-reserve-currency” comfort, of easy profits for so many decades.
The warshington fantasies will collide with a prohibitive deadline just like an iceberg in the dark right ahead.
With the greatest respect to Larchmonter (“The Russians would be forced out of Syria or lose a lot of personnel”) why should that not read: “The U$$ies would be forced out of Syria or lose a lot of personnel.”?
That scenario posits the Russians would sit on their hands while israel’s primo colony organised such an assault. They would prepare counters as nato brought it’s force in theater.
On another level, the S-400s may not be the Russian main defense against a mass saturation attack like you describe. Remember the 100+ cruise missiles the u.s. launched not long ago at Syria where over 70 didn’t reach their targets? From what I understand, many were not actually shot down, but neutralised electronicly, or something like that. That was a while back and Russia has had time to greatly expand this interception capability in Syria.
Still another monkey wrench in the zionazi-gay works is that Russia doesn’t rely upon their Syrian leased real estate, but on assets in Russia and offshore. Remember the shock the first Kalibre strike caused zionazia a few years ago? Russia doesn’t need to be in Syria to defend against aggression originating outside Syria. The bases there are for local close support, tactical, rather than strategic.
Further, Russia has specifically told the israeloamericans that if they attack Russian forces in Syria, in a manner as you describe, the places, and subhumans, which originated the attack will be targeted. In other words, full scale war will ensue.
Which brings me to the last point I wish to make tonight. If the pindos thought it was so easy to knock Russia out of Syria and then overrun the place with trrrorists, why haven’t they done it? Given neocon recklessness, and israeli lukud extremism, one would think they would have tried their luck by now. They haven’t, and it is not because they fear public reaction. They already know they can manage that. It’s also not because the worry the countries of the world might turn against them (like what happened to nazi germany), they own those that they think could matter. And it’s obviously not any sort of morals, either.
It’s the fear of a bully when facing someone who could hurt them.
VT, I agree with your comment, except that I would like to add that (I believe) Russia kept low profile in that event and did not want to totally embarrass Nato. Besides, all the Nato assets are int the “sinking” range, which I do not doubt would happen the moment Russia is attacked. Just days ago, I stumbled on a “blah” that Russia is reconsidering using nukes against all of Europe, which makes sense since the US and two other nuke holders keep theirs in Europe, if we decide to put UK in Europe.
I consider what you say to be accurate. All of it. I am certain we are going to see that night of treachery. It is what the empire specializes in! And since they have military forces and hardware surrounding Russia, it would not be difficult for them to keep Russia occupied closer to home. Perhaps a big military push by the Ukrainian NAZI forces against DPR, accompanied by the expected genocide of the people there can be expected as a diversion. This is going to become a bloody mess, I’m afraid.
I don’t think Russia even holds any illusions that they can defeat the empire, but only that if they are attacked, then U.S. cities will also burn. A sort of guarantee of mutually assured destruction. And as Vladimir Putin has calmly said: “we will go to heaven as martyrs but you won’t even have time to repent”. But this is not the thinking of the war planners of the empire, who think they can win a nuclear war. They are willing to see a large segment of their population go up in smoke to gain victory. They planned to get rid of most of them anyway.
Craig, you hit it out of the ground at the end. The psychopaths who rule in the West do not care what happens to the populace. Indeed, they do intend getting rid of most of them soon, but thermo-nuclear is too destructive of lovely property, so I fully expect bio-warfare. No doubt blamed on Russia, China or Iran. The problem in the Near and Middle East is the instability of Gog, Trump, and Magog, Bibi, both prime psychopaths being pushed into corners. Russia, China and Iran are run by basically sane human beings, but the Real Axis of Evil, the USA, Israel and Sordid Barbaria are all run by Evil nutters.
So the Russians, Iranian and Syrians will just sit back and wait while the US takes some 6 months to move massive amounts of materials across oceans and hundreds of thousands of troops. This is total nonsense. It will not be replay of Iraq with “friendly countries” hosting this armada.
The Americans will be told to either stop this massive influx or ships will be sunk and planes carrying soldiers shot down. The Americans will not have the initiative. They are too far away and their forces are too fragmented. The logistics of waging war the American way are too predictable.
“Turkey says the Kurds have received 32,000 truckloads of logistical support”
Do you believe anything the Turks say?
No one refuted the statement. Thus, it must bear some truth.
Consider the number of years the US has been active in Syria and what we have seen since they massed to attack Raqqa with Marine 175mm artillery, I’d say the volume of trucked in aid is about right.
More truckloads in today’s news:
The army of proxies is enormous, and the US has more than 20 bases to sustain in the north, east and south of Syria.
“The only option left to force an outcome the US wants is full kinetic combat. Likely against Venezuela first using a variety of neighboring forces. Second would be the US in Syria turning against the Russians. Last, would be a regime-changing attack on Tehran, coupled with a US-Israeli ground assault to take all of Lebanon.”
Have to differ. Against Venezuela, the zionazi-gays are repeating the contra strategy they used on Nicaragua, right down to the Jewish mafia subsidiaries/cia working relationship. See:
Drug Cartel Member Captured on Photo With Opposition Leader Guaido Detained in Venezuela – Minister
Against the Mideast and Iran, the zionazi-gays are continuing their terrorist proxy strategy. They make threats, noise about hellfire and brimstone, but this isn’t backed up by serious military deployment, the sort needed to do a ground invasion. As against Iraq in 1991 & 2003. I think the screeching is cover for expansion of covert, proxy war instead.
America invade Syria? Too late. The zionazis lost Turkey. America invade Iran? With what? America invade Lebanon? Again, with what.
Are the israelis going to do these invasions? Maybe, if they think they can bring along pindo/nato colonials and push them to the fore. To get this greater israel wet dream, zionazi, inc. will have engineer anothor 9/11, a larger 9/11.
Meanwhile, the nations zionazia want destroyed, and their allies, are not just going to sit back and do nothing while zionazia prepares their doom.
“What has delayed the US from going full “crazy” has been a chicken-hearted liberal bent that swept through most of the institutions of the West during Obama. Now, we have the chickenhawks in the think tanks. War is desired by them.”
Nonsense. It is a matter of strategy. The pindo strategy reflects that of their owners’ views. The bush/trump regimes answered to the israeli likud block, the clinton/obama regimes, the israeli labor block.
To get a feel of the differences between israeli labor/obama and likud/trump, this exchange between peres and sharon provides a good contrast of the different approaches to achieving the same zionazi-gay goals:
Sharon to Peres: “Don’t worry about American pressure; we control America”
“According to Israel radio (in hebrew) Kol Yisrael, Peres warned Sharon Wednesday that refusing to heed incessant American requests for a cease-fire with the Palestinians would endanger Israeli interests and “turn the US against us.”
At this point, a furious Sharon reportedly turned toward Peres, saying “every time we do something you tell me Americans will do this and will do that. I want to tell you something very clear, don’t worry about American pressure on Israel, we, the Jewish people control America, and the Americans know it.”
The radio said Peres and other cabinet ministers warned Sharon against saying what he said in public because “it would cause us a public relations disaster.”
The far right israeli fascists (likud & co.) don’t care who they offend. They are gods who expect service, and nothing less, from the untermenschen. The hell with how the slaves feel. The slightly less far right israeli fascists, labor block, realise it’s better the slaves like massa, rather than fear the freak, and pretend to be your buddy instead. Good cop/bad cop. Friendly fascists and unfriendly fascists.
The zpc/nwo (the monopolars) misjudged their power when the USSR split up and they were able to take over so much so quickly. They concentrated on strategies designed to subdue much weaker adversaries, and rearmed accordingly. They relied not so much on liberal thinking, but far right thinking. The neocons are far right. These “gods” reckoned themselves invulnerable and all powerful, since in their minds, they brought about the “end of history” and now ruled the planet. Swollen heads tend towards muddled thinking.
They thought their victims would remain static, as themselves, but the victims adapted. There was no end of history as the far right proclaimed.
Here is an article that explains why the United States will lose its next war:
The old ways of fighting a war are no longer valid and, until Washington comes to the realization that their strategy no longer works, there is a great risk that the United States could find its position at the top of the world’s “military heap” under significant threat.
While a full on conventional kinetic war in the Middle East will cause a great deal of suffering, it is the follow-up nuclear war that is to be feared the most. The only way to avoid that is if the AngloZionist Empire wins the conventional war.
Are you volunteering to be ‘collateral damage’, Hans?
What kind of (Removed insult,MOD) comment is that?
I am simply pointing out that if the AngloZionist Empire is losing the conventional war, it will launch nuclear strikes which will be countered by nuclear strikes by Russia and China. Therefore, everyone loses.
However, if the AngloZonist Empire wins the convention war, Russia and China have too much consideration for life on the planet to start a nuclear war.
Hans, the AngloZios love to threaten as a last resort: Dont mess with me I’m crazy I have The Bomb and I’ll use it! But the good old days of Harry Truman (The Lunatic in a Business Suit) are long gone. Firstly, as you say, nuclear missiles no longer fly one way only. Secondly docius in fundem, as the Neapolitans say, they now fly much faster from East to West. If the AngloZios try their Samson Option they lose and the world wins. “Russia and China have too much consideration for life on the planet”, as you correctly observe, to let ZioNATO survive a nuclear war.
“What kind of (Removed insult,MOD) comment is that?”
A valid one. You propose letting zionazis rule the world because they make threats of nuclear war. A bully’s wet dream.
There are basically two ways to defeat a bully. Kill them once they threaten. Or what Russia, China, and the rest of the sensible countries are doing, the judo method.
That’s what I was trying to get at, vot. I’m sorry I pissed Hans off, but you’re on the money, I believe.
putin said something similar to “why would we need a world without russians”… I’ve heard they have a full armagedeon dead man switch, and instructions for their submarines to wipe whatever is standing afterwards… Can’t blame them…
Can’t count pn their consideration for life either…
Sorry, Hans. I thought you were diminishing the suffering of the Middle East in comparison to suffering in the West. In NO circumstances, in my opinion, is any victory for the USA and Israel preferable to a possible thermo-nuclear war-that way the Real Axis of Evil can blackmail the world while a ‘New Purim’ unfolds.
Hans, I wrote an apology for offending you and explaining my intent, but it has not appeared, strangely.
Valid points, absolutely. And absolutely terrifying! Unbelieveable to think we could have went down a different road following the dissolution of the USSR.
If they’ never seen it before, low altitude attack craft, then what makes one so confident that a war against Iran is simply “winnable”?
Fool me once shambers on you, fool me twice shambers on me.
Aram, I would like to add my thoughts. While there is a great debate about effectiveness of US weapons, the main point in any conflict is the people who handle the weapons.
As for the false flag, which is often thrown around, I do not believe in any such thing, as the money lenders are scrambling to keep the oil price from skyrocketing, which would make the “average greatest oil consumer” very unhappy and therefore jeopardize Trumps re-election. This is why he is planning his move against Iran for “after he gets re-elected”. On the other hand, just this morning I noticed a little “blah” about the South Stream idea being resurrected, which in my mind suggests that “Russia-Turkey marriage of convenience” is over, as I never believed it would last long anyway. Anyone, who had any historical dealings with Turks knows it.
>The most probable conclusion is that there won’t be a war. Washington knows very well that it cannot afford a regional war, especially not now when Washington has been exposed for not being able to defend its vassals.
I notice some commenting here agree with this statement. The U.S. is not crazy enough to try this. I beg to differ. You can draw some humour from this but last evening I listened to a segment with James Corbett as he talked about Aesops Fables, stories he reads to his children which teach a moral lesson. One story was of the little lamb and the wolf. The wolf wanted dinner, and we know who he had decided to eat. So the wolf started making accusations against the little lamb to justify his attack and each time the little lamb calmly explained how he was innocent of each charge. The little lamb could not possibly be guilty of the wolf’s charges! Finally, the wolf had enough, pounced on the lamb and ate it. The moral lesson? If an adversary has already determined what it intends to do, it is impossible to change his actions through talking.
All of these wars represent long term plans. Iran is next. It does not matter who the President is, the agenda will continue and has continued. This failure in Arabia, rather than cause the empire to realize they are falling apart, has simply pissed them off big time. Being full of pride and a sense of manifest destiny as world hegemon, they are going to pursue what we would consider madness. War it will be. They already have many military bases around the middle east. In fact, they have no intention of ever leaving Syria. Not willingly. They are already well-armed and will have the help of their proxies, the tribe on the shores of the eastern Mediterranean and the house of Saud. I have read reports that they are already moving more troops to Jordan near the Iraq/Iran border. I don’t expect we will be waiting months for this to explode. The big question is the response of Russia. They are in a terrible position. They don’t have near the forces to counteract such a force. Not without risking full-blown nuclear war and I don’t believe they will risk that unless their own country is under direct threat of attack. That is the danger for them too. They surely know they are also in the gun sites of the empire. They could take the lesson from the story of the lamb and wolf and decide there is no choice but to fully engage the empire in the middle east, and on behalf of their allies under attack, but I don’t think they will.
It is all so evil. No country is safe.
Except this time the lamb has a concealed carry permit.
The US, and to a lesser extent Europe, depends on a steady supply of 20 mbpd oil, and without a significant fraction of that, the economy breaks. It is too complex, too interconnected to get by with only as much as it produces. That is a fate worse than war; at least with war there is some kind of order. With a broken economy, the trucks stop, civil unrest begins three days later, and nothing would be able to restore our the phony paradise.
Iran has shown that it can stop the flow of oil. The Houthis have shown that they can stop the flow of oil. Hezbollag and Syria have the capability to “stop” Israel i n the same sense, i.e. disruption that lasts a month or more.
“Except this time the lamb has a concealed carry permit.”
Great way of putting it. :-D
Comment to Craig Moulday:
While I agree with most in your posting I still have the opinion, that usually the outcome of a war is based on the way of thinking, i.e. of those individuals who have the saying, planning, ordering.
While the fable of the wolf and the lamp is o.k. my experience with one of my sons told me something too and maybe quite different:
He was in a state competition for Taekwondo (self defense like Judo etc.). There were three rounds to do.
The first round he just avoided to be hit. The second round the same while we sat on the tribune watching and shaking our heads and asking ourselves why he didn’t fight.
His attitude changed in the third round. While he avoided being hit twice he started to really fight.
Thus he won and got a medal.
Russian and Asian way of thinking might differs greatly of Western’s way: President Putin is – to my knowledge – a judoka and President Xi has sure partly the way of old Asian Yin and Yang thinking. This combined make – maybe – quite a big difference. If a war should start China would try to protect its stakes in Iran and Russia would not allow the war spreading. It could develop extremely asymetrical.
In my opinion Russia and China are already somehow prepared.
At least I do hope.
Russia prevents Israeli airstrikes in Syrian capital: Russian media – Sep 21, 2019
Russia has reportedly prevented another Israeli airstrike in Syria, helping the Syrian armed forces
destroy a drone on its way to attack Damascus.
Unidentified Drone Shot Down in Skies Over Suburb Southeast of Damascus – Reports
“An unidentified unmanned aerial vehicle was destroyed over the city of Akraba southeast of Damascus, Syrian state television said on Thursday.
According to a Sputnik correspondent, several explosions were heard in Damascus and its suburbs at about 20:05 local time (17:05 GMT).
Akraba is located about 10 kilometres (6 miles) southeast of Damascus on the way to the city’s international airport.”
Moment the Syrian military shot down suspected Israeli drone over Damascus: video
“The drone, which some in Damascus believe belonged to the Israeli military, was reportedly shot down over the Aqraba area near the Jaramana District by the Syrian air defenses.
As shown in the video below, the drone exploded over the Aqraba area, which was heard throughout the city of Damascus last night.”
Russian Air Force blocks Israeli airstrikes in Syria: media
“The Russian Air Force allegedly blocked the Israeli military from carrying out strikes over Syria last night, the Russian aviation publication Avia.Pro reported this morning.
“Last night, while delivering another series of attacks on the suburbs of Damascus, Russian combat aircraft took off from the Russian military’s Khmeimim Airbase, located in the Latakia province, to the the southern part of the Arab Republic, which resulted in the disruption of the Israeli attacks on the Syrian capital and its surroundings,” Avia.Pro reported.
According to Avia.Pro, the Russian military also provided the Syrian Armed Forces with information about an Israeli drone that was preparing to strike the southeastern suburbs of Damascus.
“According to data, at least two combat aircraft took off from the Khmeimim Airbase at around 8 P.M. in the south-east direction, after which, under unknown circumstances, an Israeli drone that violated Syrian airspace was shot down and subsequently there was no attack on the suburbs of the Syrian capital,” they continued.
“It is noteworthy that, according to Western media, during a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu, the Russian leader threatened to take measures against Israel if Tel Aviv continues to strike at Syria,” Avia.Pro added.
If this proves to be true, this would be the fourth time since the late August that the Russian military has been reported to have blocked an Israeli attack on Syria.”
The Russian government doesn’t announce this, and make make a big deal about it, like one sees from the israeli regime, or it’s craven quislings, they simply do what is necessary. The zionazi-GAYS get off on humiliating others (their “wee little man” syndrome), the Russians don’t need that sort of cowardice to prop up their self image.
A German-Belgian-Kuwaiti UN resolution to protect the West’s beloved pro-democracy jihadists and moderate head-choppers in Syria gets nixed by Russia and China.
Let the self-righteous rug-chewing commence in Berlin and Brussels!
Russia, China Veto a Draft Resolution that Aims to Protect Terrorists in Idleb
It always seems as though the game of brinksmanship is escalating and that some sort of explosion is imminent.
There is clearly a great deal at stake, and every country in the world is well aware of this. It’s clear that the rules od engagement have changed drastically. As mentioned above, the tech-gap has closed and countermeasures are readily available. Whatever really happened to the Aramco facilities, the Houthis have defined asymmetric countermeasures for all the world to see.
For over a decade the Worlds Most Powerful Force for Good has been exposed as an occupation force and not much more than that. Yes they have lots of hardware and logistics, but again the playing field has changed. Gone are the days of standoff bombing a 3rd world country into submission. In the modern world one does not just invade and occupy a nation. Although the above mentioned army has been able to ruin a nation, they cannot possibly control it and will bleed from 1000 cuts as they try.
As far as near-peer adversaries, the USA cannot compete without escalating into total war with the casualties that implies. The MENA area is fraught with multiple friction points where forces are grating against each other as they jockey for power and control. Yes it is possible for a spark to ignite the tinder of war, but the players are aware of the interconnected consequences. If the USA attacks Iran, there will be a retaliation which will impact many assets in the area as well as the global economy. When this happens, all the ties and treaties that have been growing for the past decade will suddenly appear very solid and sides will be taken. Iran has to be well aware that they have nowhere to go as they are surrounded and under constant harassment. Reason and diplomacy has not worked for them and they are likely aware that they are dealing with irrational adversaries who will not stop until they bend the knee. One has to assume that they will strike back and do so with enough force and precision as to injure and disable the enemy.
As many of you have expressed, there are movements of materials in growing numbers happening in the ME area. Supplies, maritime transport, troops etc seem to be on the rise. Quite often this is posturing. The all out multi theater strike by Larchmonter445 is certainly possible, but the responses would be catastrophic. Resistance force appear to be in possession of enough materials to respond in a decisive way to such an attack. It’s reasonable to assume that they would do so. Enough carnage has happened to their neighbors, they know they are next and cannot afford to sit by and wait for it to happen to them.
Once the lines are crossed, the exchanges of missile-fire will quickly escalate and multiple nations will be drawn in. There will be no time to negotiate as the various parties inflict damage and extract revenge. It’s possible HZ, Iran, Syria, Yemen will lash out and do as much damage as they can. This will include US bases, isreal, and KSA infrastructure. There are hypotheses out there that posit a global geopolitical economic total reset through massive chaos and destruction in order to consolidate power and control. This is not unreasonable given the historical facts that both world wars managed to achieve such results and not by accident. That being the case, the current escalation is the perfect setting to bring about such a disaster…..
Not only does the “Emperor have no clothes”
it seems to have a sever case of syphilis.