Okay, this will be a short bulletpoint reminder of how I see the Russian position and options in response to the Ukronazi attack.
First, a few key assumptions:
- Russia does not want to invade/liberate the Ukraine
- Russia would prefer not to get openly involved in the LDNR
- The best outcome for Russia would be for the LDNR to be able to hold without overt Russian support
- Throughout this entire battle, Russia will always prefer to do less than to do more.
Next, here is a summary of how I expect Russia to act in the next couple of days:
|Ukronazi shelling but not ground attack||Civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction||Let the LDNR handle it while reporting about this at home|
|Ukronazis attempt to move ground forces across the LOC||Risk to the LDNR defenses||Ideally, Russia would only use “indirect” means such as counter-battery fire, strikes on advancing Ukronazi forces, EW.|
|Ukronazis forces break through the LDNR defenses||Potential existential risk to the LDNR||Imposition of a no-fly zone, sustained artillery/rocket attacks on Ukie forces|
|Full scale Ukronazi attack||Existential threat to the LDNR||Russia moves her forces into the LDNR and stops it all.|
Notice that in all the scenarios above, Russia does not initiate a fullscale attack on the Ukraine.
Because the decision to launch a fullscale attack on the Ukronazi state would be based not on events along the LOC (line of contact) but upon a much “bigger picture” of what the West might, or might not do, in the Ukraine and the rest of Europe.
In other words, the problem of the LDNR is separate from the much greater problem of the future security arrangement of Europe.
Also, another much needed reminder: when does it makes sense to negotiate with your enemies?
- Not when you “trust” them.
- Not when you hope to “convince” them.
- Not when you hope to “show a peaceful face” to the general public.
No, it makes sense to negotiate with your enemy when:
- You hope to achieve more by negotiations then by using military force.
- Time is on your side.
- When you need to buy more time (for whatever reasons).
The US and its EU colonies have been predicting a Russian intervention for months now. That intervention has not happened (yet) and this is driving the leaders of the West into total despair. This is good for Russia and that is how she wants to keep the situation for as long as possible.
I am personally convinced that the only way to solve both the specific LDNR option and to create a new security architecture in Europe will have to be achieved by Russian unilateral military operation: the folks in the West need yet another military defeat to come back to their senses (they need one about every century or so). If the Russians also see that as inevitable, they still have two things they need to do first:
- To delay an open intervention as much as possible in order to subvert the western narrative
- To engage in what could be called the “psychological preparation of the theater of operations” which, in plain English, to create such a level of anger in the LDNR and also inside Russia that the public opinion will DEMAND an intervention.
There WILL be real negative economic and political repercussions for Russia when she intervenes. Thus it is vital for Putin and the government to create such a political dynamic inside Russia that the Russian people will not only support an intervention, but DEMAND one. Then, when the western “sanctions from hell” are imposed, the people will not blame Putin for the very real price Russia will have to pay to prevail.
Right now, you could say that the Russian bear has been awoken by all the noise, it has come out of its lair and is just looking. Just that has the entire West in a state of total panic.
But when that bear will actually attack will not be decided by anyone but that bear.
The Ukies have declared on numerous occasions that they will not implement the Minsk Agreements. That is very good.
Now their attack on the LDNR seems to show that the Ukies now want to provoke a Russian response. This is also very good, as the level of public outrage on the RuNet and even on Russian TV has gone through the roof. The Russian PSYOP preparation of the battlefield is progressing in the right direction.
As for the LDNR defenses, they seem to be holding, but the real, major, Ukie ground offensive has not begun yet!
That is the next thing we need to look for: a Ukie ground attack. Specifically, we don’t need to worry primarily about the initiation of that coming Ukie attack, but what it yields in the first 4-6 hours or so. Once the Ukies are fully committed, then they become a legitimate target for counter-strikes.
So this is The Big Question now: will the LDNR defenses hold?
==>>So this is the key thing to observe is this: is the LOC moving and, if yes, how far and how fast?<<==
My personal guess is that yes, they will, which will leave only two options to the Ukronazis:
- Give up
- Launch a massive, full-scale attack
The latter is much more likely than the former.
And, in the meantime, the pain dial for the West is slowly turning up pretty much on all fronts.
So for Russia it makes sense to let that process take as long as possible before deciding to interrupt it and overtly intervene.
I hear one argument: what about the innocent civilians murdered in the LDNR?
What about them?
Does anybody seriously think that a Russian intervention will result in less casualties than what is currently taking place?
The horrible truth is that loss of life will happen no matter how the situation evolves. So the only real choice is not “save civilians or let them die” the choice is “make sure that every civilian death counts”. Sound cynical? It is, but that is the reality of real warfare (as opposed to the Hollywood & Tom Clancy nonsense folks in the West are brainwashed with since birth).
So, to all those who are constantly demanding that Russia intervene *now* and who don’t understand why Lavrov agreed to meet with Blinken, I will say this: do not project your own emotions and reactions unto Putin or, if you prefer, the “Russian bear”. The Russians did not create the biggest country on earth and defeated all their enemies by being naive or by being unable to calculate when/how to react against a foreign aggression.
If you think that you know better, good for you, just don’t expect Putin to act the way you would in the same situation.
Lastly, there is something morally repugnant in the attitude of those who see warfare as anything but the weapon of last resort. Christ said “blessed are the peacemakers” not “blessed are the warmakers”. Yes, as I said, I believe that Russia will have to intervene, openly and directly. But I also believe that Putin will wait as much as possible. That is not only operationally wise, it is morally correct.
ADDENDUM: I remember how the western media said that the city of Sarajevo was “intensively shelled” by the Serbs. Utter nonsense! These folks simply don’t understand modern warfare. When a shell lands every few minutes or so this is NOT any “intense artillery fire”. Now, when an area the size of one, or even several, football fields instantly goes up in flames, that is a serious artillery strike. What we see as of right now in the LDNR is what could be called “disturbing fire”. When the Ukies used de-mining vehicles yesterday that could be part of a preparation for a ground assault. This has NOT happened YET. As for a ground assault, so far the Ukies have only sent in special forces and, apparently, they got detected, took casualties, and had to retreat.
All this is way below the threshold at which Russia will have to intervene.
If the Russians also see that as inevitable, they still have two things they need to do first:
*To delay an open intervention as much as possible in order to subvert the western narrative
*To engage in what could be called the “psychological preparation of the theater of operations” which, in plain English, to create such a level of anger in the LDNR and also inside Russia that the public opinion will DEMAND an intervention.
I wonder if the recent prominence of “6th column suggestions and grievances,” along with the (perceived allowing of) insults against Russian athletes at the Olympics, is meant to galvanise Russian public opinion in favour of Russian military action. My understanding is that since Russians are very allergic to war, this “allergy” can only be overcome with great anger. Is that an accurate interpretation?
Yes, the anger in Russia is real, A LOT of voices say “enough is enough”.
I believe that they will get their wish soon.
The anger in America and around the globe is real. I’m not of any Russian descent either. I just loathe the evil that Washington has embraced during my lifetime (75 years) and inflicts upon others with absolute arrogance and impunity. Things will never be right with the world as long as the warmongers controlling my society, my civilisation continue to reign. We have slaughtered so many innocents in the name of fortune and lies. I salute Russia for making this sacrifice in the name of humanity. The next cancer that needs extirpation is in Israel–because of their bad acts, not their identity or group membership.
@Realist; Well said. I wholeheartedly concur with your perspective.
I love my country. It is being destroyed from within. I came to the USA in the early 80s and it has changed beyond recognition. What was once a bastion of freedom has become a police state almost as bad as the former Soviet Union.
The US / NATO war machine is cruisin’ for a bruisin’ Sometimes an ass-whoopin’ is a good thing to wake people up. Maybe we can work back toward being a truly free country and being a better world citizen thats not intent on dominating every other country.
Cruisin for a bruisin like that.. Ass woopin to woke us back up right but damn we in deep trouble
Patience is a Russian characteristic, which the West does not fully understand, interpreting it as a sign of weakness. Putin is being very patient, giving Ukraine and the West the initiative when it comes to aggression. They began with a propaganda hysteria and we now have Ukrainian artillery attacks in the field, which could well be preparations for a full scale attack that will, I believe, break the Ukie military, creating a backlash in Ukraine it’s self. I am now waiting to see how the Ukie conscripts will perform. As for sanctions, Washington DC will implement them, no matter what happens. The European reaction will be interesting, when they start losing trade and end up paying double for US gas.
Germany seems to have made the decision to cancel NS2 and are prepared to pay higher price for its gas. Putin just declared that other sanctions are coming no matter what Russia will be doing. They will invent the pretext, if needs be.
The only option left for Putin will be where he will struck or when. The West will never stop its current policy.
Cancelling NS2 is virtually impossible, and such a thing could only last temporarily. Germany to pay double for US gas, whose availability is questionable ? Difficult to believe, bearing in mind what this would do to the price of German exports.
When Merkel was in power, she could not control German industrialists. After the introduction of sanctions in 2014, some 500 industrialists went to Russia, negotiating trade deals and opening subsidiaries. Currently 20 industrialists have stated that they will oppose any cancellation of NS2. The number will rise. Sanctions will cause some damage to Russia, but even more to EU countries, whom Washington DC is forcing to terminate all trade with Russia and fall under US control. When sanctions were introduced in 2014, EU countries lost, by the second half of 2016, 100 billion euros in trade, bitterly resented. I don’t see them willing to lose even more. Repercussions are bound to follow.
Agree with you, B.F.
I thought Chancellor Scholz would be able to control his ministers from the Green party, but he is not. This is happening only 2 days after his visit to Moscow. He is a weak leader.
NS2 was supposed to be ready 6 months ago, and already suffered delays.
I am aware of the industrialists voices you are referring to. I hope they will be heard by the government. The USA want to maintain their control over Germany and get a piece of the gas pie. The German government can allocate some programs to diminish the pricing impact on the population.
You want to see the real effect of crippling economic sanctions? Wait until Russia quadruples overflight fees for US and EU commercial airlines.
@BF, EU paying double for US gas….double? How about paying three or four times that for Russian gas, not US. The US placed a shit load of sanctions on Russia that killed Russia EU trade. The US didn’t stop trading with Russia did they? They make the rules. Russian energy is being shipped straight to the US. It’s left more than a few scratching their heads. So all the US has to do is sanction Russia to the hilt, buy up large LNG tankers from Russia, and resell it to the the poodles of the EU and Brittan. Profit margins always come first. Both sides win, and if the US is gonna sanction Russia that bad for invading Ukraine, in the name of God make it count and just fry the neo Nazis once and for all.
sean the leprechaun
“How about paying three or four times that for Russian gas, not US”. Answer: This will never happen.
Yes, i know about Russian exports of energy to the US. That energy is being sold, not given away, with Russia making a profit. The NS1 gas pipeline to Europe is still functioning, as well as the other gas pipelines. And of course we have the Siberian pipeline connecting Russia and China, with another one being built.
As for Russia-EU trade, it has not been killed, but reduced. As for “sanctioning Russia to the hilt”, what more can the US do ? Both Russia and China have introduced safety measures, like their own versions of SWIFT. Finally, Lukashenko did not go to Moscow without a reason, where no doubt he discussed the situation on Ukraine and counter measures against any additional sanctions which, as I have already written, will do more harm to the EU than to Russia.
Well I’ll be surprised & very disappointed if Putin doesn’t soon stop All Oil Shipments to the USA — and NO more Rocket engines either or hard to get minerals. Hurt them -hard!
I am not educated in economics, but does anyone else also feel that recent higher prices of literally everything are all somehow connected with preparing Europe for expensive energy sources from North America?
I agree with your analysis completely.
No matter how cynical it may seem, it is the wisest course of action.
Imagine if Milosevic would have been smart enough to let the extremist Croat elements play out their cards first instead of intervening with the JNA so quickly and then proceeding to raze Vukovar which had no strategic value whatsoever.
Serbs are on brink of demographic abiss and do not have the cannon fodder luxury option.
We are under 6 million, with average age over 40 and over 50 thousand young people moving out of country to be assimilated in next generation.
If he didn’t do that, you would have WW2 slaughterhouse all over again.
Very well said Andrei and I will add that any one of you who is calling for war, immediately go and join either the Ukrainian armed forces or the Donbas armed forces or forever hold your peace!
If I could leave Arstralia right now and fly to Russia to join the Donbass defenders, I’d already be on that plane. Unfortunately, I cannot. I can only sit, watch and seethe.
You can always come to Ottawa, they have lots of Nazis in uniform there.
Also I will say that the time is ripe for a western false flag. Lord knows they are well experienced with them.
Great analysis as usual Andrei. If the uki/usa forces push through gorlokova expect them to move far and fast. They will break through.
It will also be the dumbest move ever ( which us why I believe it will happen)
Look at a map, grab a crayon and draw the world’s biggest cauldron. Oops
Yes, indeed, if/when the Ukies breakthrough the first tactical defensive echelon they will enter a very dangerous territory, with enemies on a least 3 sides (front and both sides) and will risk both envelopment and destruction by fire (LDNR or Russian, makes no difference here).
I, too, agree with that assertion. However, one has to wonder if the Ukie conscripts will ever reach the second line of defense, or if they will break. Do you think that the demoralized conscripts really have any fight in them for a full scale military attack ?
There WILL be real negative economic and political repercussions for Russia when she intervenes. Thus it is vital for Putin and the government to create such a political dynamic inside Russia that the Russian people will not only support an intervention, but DEMAND one. Then, when the western “sanctions from hell” are imposed, the people will not blame Putin for the very real price Russia will have to pay to prevail.
Are there some Russian info sources giving more details about the Putin-Xi pre-Olympics summit, specifically about any economic incentives? I would be interested to know if the two made agreements that would mitigate any “sanctions from hell,” or whether the new natural gas deal “settled in euros” was actually an upfront Chinese funding for Russian military operations.
When NATO announces its “hell sanctions” I hope Beijing announces, within a few hours maximum, the immediate activation of their joint SWIFT-alternative; and other trade deals.
Do you agree with Dimtry Orlov that evacuating the people of Donbass is a brilliant move?
Small point: I would think that the people of Russia are already angry about what is happening in Donbass.
I would not call it “brilliant”, but it is prudent and also makes political sense.
So yes, I approve.
But keep in mind that a full evacuation of the Donbass is probably impossible.
It also solves nothing, it just creates better conditions for Russia
Mas se cria melhores condições para a Rússia então resolve pelo menos alguma coisa.
Quer me parecer que essa evacuação que está ocorrendo é uma espécie de limpeza do terreno para que se possa criar um novo debaltzevo, um bolsão que poderá ser bombardeado a vontade sem preocupação com a presença de civis. Mas a manobra parece tão óbvia que os ucranianos não cairão na armadilha. Ou cairão, porque estúpidos eles são para fazer isso? Ou porque não teriam outra alternativa além de entrar num gigantesco caldeirão de fogo? Do ponto de vista dos ianques eles não devem estar nem um pouco preocupados com a dizimação dos seus capangas nazistas. Me parece que os eua sabem que eles não tem nenhum valor estratégico e a sua utilidade se esgota na obtenção do pretexto para impor sanções por conta do “ataque” dos russos “malvados”. Alguém pode fazer considerações sobre isso?
But if it creates better conditions for Russia then it solves at least something. It seems to me that this evacuation that is taking place is a kind of clearing of the land so that you can create a new debaltzevo, a pocket that can be bombed at will without concern for the presence of civilians. But the maneuver seems so obvious that the Ukrainians will not fall into the trap. Or will they fall, because they’re stupid enough to do that? Or why wouldn’t they have any choice but to enter a gigantic cauldron of fire? From the point of view of the Yankees they should not be at all concerned about the decimation of their Nazi henchmen. It seems to me that the United States knows that they have no strategic value and their usefulness is exhausted in obtaining the pretext to impose sanctions on account of the “attack” of the “evil” Russians. Can anyone make considerations about this?
I respect Dimitry’s ability to think outside the box. As I replied in Dimitry’s original article about evacuating historically Russian land:
*A potentially bad precedent could be set, i.e. Russians can eventually be bullied out of their lands
*More NATO missile launchers can be brought closer to Moscow
*Land that once upon a time was both the breadbasket & industrial centre of excellence for the Soviet Union would be inaccessible
Sure, the Russian military could periodically launch air & missile strikes if their “patrol robots” in Donbass get attacked; but that is such a waste. Why not partner with Chinese investors to revive Antonov into a viable aerospace firm once again? Why not invite Chinese investors to help rebuild the area into a prosperous Novorossia into either a province of Russia, or a fully independent state?
With all the hatred running thru Ukraine, putting large money in as a way to buy peace is putting the cart before the horse.
No contract can protect you from someone you do not trust. Contracts are only for people you trust.
It is excellent cover for moving a large force into the DonBas…
Civilians leave in busses…
Soldiers return in those same busses together with their personal gear…
Heavy stuff…. rations…. ammo…. fuel…. was shifted into various locations over the years….
That is why they made such a stink about the Ukie SRG attempt to blow the fuel dump…
I think the Ukies are being suckered into an attack…
I believe they will find themselves against a brick wall…
”I would think that the people of Russia are already angry about what is happening in Donbas.”
So they should be. The Donbass population are Russian-speaking, carry Russian passports, are supported by the Russian Parliament and probably the Russian military. This is an overwhelming majority of Russian people and society on both sides of the border. Oh, yes, the Minsk Agreements! The people in Donbass deserve better than semi-rule by what is a foreign hostile state, and they didn’t fight off the Ukronazis in Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo, to be ruled over by the Ukronazis in their homelands.
So true and proving that you and the Russian leadership are wiser than most of us.
But still, the bully is weak, stupid and has (a lot of) blood on his hands. Even his “friends” are yearning to see him get taken out (watch what’s going on in Canada right now or France and Germany’s diplomacy over the last few weeks). A couple good punches and he will run away forever, leaving his victims to come out of the dark celebrate.
You are not dealing with the West at the time of Napoleon or Hitler here. We are demoralized, divided and sick of it all, even the best of us. No need for Russia to lose half its army on the road to Moscow and retreat. Everyone is waiting for a hero, it seems that it’s time for Russia to be that hero for our generation. Sorry it has to be Russia yet again but that seems to be its destiny.
The evacuation of civilians from the affected zones sounds like a good idea which will achieve a few things:
Reduces the number of potential human shields and hostages, and killed or injured which reduces the political fallout from “not doing enough for fellow ethnic Russians”, which buys time.
Reduces the emergency medical and hospital workload so as to focus more on soldier medicine rather than civilians.
Reduces the risk of friendly fire incidents when counter strikes become necessary, expanding targeting effectiveness and flexibility.
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
I agree on with this statement largely however, Putin could have, should have done more intervention and planning long ago. I realize he was mired down with Syria but this has been going on since 2014 and actually prior to that. Huge disappointment.
In addition, What the hell is with Syria? The US/israel are fully entrenched there now. Israel is actively and openly attacking Syria and Syria is mostly left to their own devices(aided of course by Russian Military equipment). This also should have been addressed much more forcefully. I am a fan of Putin and Co. I truly want their success. Putin just seems to continue to think he can appease them somehow and “play ball”. No. They are evil. No. Not happening. Force should have used long ago. Take your shot. Now everything is much worse. He gave them too much time to prepare.
I’m sure the evacuation has been planned for a long time. But you cannot get people to leave their homes until disaster is at the door.
Joe Biden began this when he was getting good marks for handling domestic issues.
Then along came inflation, cops getting shot, Asian women getting shoved in front of subway cars, stabbing of citizens, beating of senior citizens and career criminals on no cash bail and walking free minutes after committing felonies.
No one cared about massive Russian military drills in those days. But by Fall uprising of parents in Virginia in November and sweep by Republicans of a blue state, “Russians were going to invade, goddammit!.” And Joe was going to stop them.
We’ve had four months of this monkey-crap from Mi6 and CIA, State and WH, Germany and France, and the queen of colitis, Stoltenberg. Chest-beating and fear mongering in equal heaps, enough to start a World War.
While that was going on, Russia turned on the pressure, December Ultimatums. Military exercises, first in the Western and Southern Districts, then in the Union State Belarus, and then Kaliningrad, and then the Eastern Mediterranean, and Syria.
Mix in the deft Foreign Ministry work to hook the US on their own words, “security assurance and missile treaties”. Now, we will have more exchange of diplomats in work groups to see if those elements of Russian Ultimatums can be established. That would leave just Ukraine as neutral entity, never ever in NATO, as well as the NATO weapons east of the 1997 line moved west. Small stuff compared to the other items.
The longer this goes on, the weaker Joe Biden gets. Inflation is blazing up almost at 10%. By the midterm elections, voting for the Dems will be like voting for Xi Jinping and the Wuhan Batlady.
Putin’s Pressure Campaign is the most significant use of static military in modern history.
Ukraine is just part of the struggle to end unipolar power. The East Med and Syria are shaping up as the next theater of the Campaign.
And when the Olympics ends, China will begin to do its mimicry of what Russia is doing. Taiwan is in for some Pressure of its own.
This is what tectonic plates look like as they pressure one another under the Earth’s “civilized” shell.
The plate of the West is being pushed under the Eurasian plate.
It is irreversible and unstoppable.
Perhaps there is a very faint chance this is “just” a temporary situation most carefully planned ukrops and USA for attention (but of course very riskily dangerous)during the Munich Security Conference and try and get some self deluding leverage during the current series and planned upcoming talks????? And of course still trying their utmost to get Russia intervening somehow if not hoodwinking the rest of the world that that is so.
Putin should stop selling oil and gas and other products to Usks ,he needs to raise the price of energy world wide
to put on pressure on the world population and business and this would help increase the price of every thing,
this will shorting time the when the finical system will collapse also at the same time increase the income that Russia
will receive to fight the War that is coming. The Russia energy should be use as a weapon against the West.
Sorry Tom I don’t agree
Russia proving itself as a reliable supplier is priceless for credibility in the wavering states like Germany
That would destroy Russian credibility as they have contracts with parties that they will wish to do business with in the future. The Russians have consistently branded the USA as ‘non-agreement capable’, it does not make sense for the future of the SCO, the CSTO, or the ECU for Russia to assume the mantle of unreliability now worn by the USA.
Patience, the end game is coming.
That was my school of thought immediately after the fascist coup in 2013/14. But I’m a hothead. Mr Putin is not. I let my passions and emotions get the best of me at times. Mr Putin doesn’t. I play chess, but am not very good at it. Why? Because I become impatient. Mr Putin has the patience of a Taoist monk. This is a war of attrition. Cool, calm, smart and strategically astute minds will prevail. An increasingly erratic and aggressive rabid dog like the Yank empire will not.
Sound analysis. Evacuate non-combatants, draw enemy forces into the Donbass pocket and eliminate them with stand-off artillery and missile enfilade. With not so much as a Russian boot on the ground in Ukraine.
One problem, which you did not address, is that if the Ukrainian army advances into the city limits of any of the border cities, it will become next to impossible for Russia to do anything about it without destroying those cities and the civilians in them. Remember the Donetsk Airport. In other words, the civilians become human shields if the Ukrainian army is allowed to advance that far.
It would take armor about 30 minutes to 2 hours, and dismounted infantry about 12 hours to advance that far. In the fourth scenario of full on invasion, Russia has only 2 hours to react before it is effectively too late. They cannot get infantry or armor there that fast. So the only response they could do would be missile, rocket, and air to ground attack on the Ukrainian forces.
The problem that LDPR have always had is that they have no defensive depth at all.
One problem, which you did not address, is that if the Ukrainian army advances into the city limits of any of the border cities, it will become next to impossible for Russia to do anything about it without destroying those cities and the civilians in them.
I did not address this possibility because it would make no sense for the Ukies to try to enter cities. The LAST thing they want is engage is urban offensive operations.
I don’t address militarily unsound hypotheticals.
hopefully in such a case then Russia will initiate a destruction of the Ukrop rear lines by way of massive ballistic missile / aerial attack. Let the front prong stay in the cities, but destroy all the rear and command centers and see how well the headless snake does after that.
The Tet Offensive was “militarily unsound” but launched for political reasons.
The Tet Offensive was “militarily unsound”
In whose opinion?
I doubt that the winners would agree with you :-P
The defensive depth of the Donbass forces is called Russia. Note the Southern Boiler in 2014 @ Ilovaisk.
The Ukies thought they were at the rear of the LDPR militias. Not so. Russia was the rear.
And if you pay attention to Kadyrov, it is very clear that Chechnya is very much part of that rear.
Syrian war vets from the Northern Caucuses are in Donbass to help their Russian brothers.
These are the steppes where great armies have come and died for centuries because they misjudge “the rear” and who is whose ally.
“Syrian war vets from the Northern Caucuses are in Donbass to help their Russian brothers”
Very good news, if true. I read at Colonel Cassad, if I am not mistaken, that Wagner from Africa are going to defend Novorossia. This guys can make the diference. I don’t want any war, of corse, bat it’s to Rossia bring LDNR under her wings and crush the Orcs, once and for all.
your versatility is impressive! What is your academic background or reading?
Congrats on the analysis!
@Suk if you were addressing me . . .
It’s about critical thinking, using multiple sources, understanding what a fact is, what an open sources is, what a checkable, verified fact is, and understanding patterns of information or data. (read Gregory Bates)
Been at that for many decades.
Basic POV is shorn of ideology. I reject all and every ideology. I have the disposition of thinking like a scientist needs to.
From a lot of information, you develop insights. Those patterns create short hand (algorithms?).
I read a lot. I stay in my lane. I cherish certitude. I don’t get out over my skis.
I have always been interested in the big current events, the Intel, the News, and world and human affairs.
Like ideology, I trust no government. All become tyrannies. If a government is not a tyranny it has a very wise leader and/or a philosophy.
Philosophy is not ideology. They are mutually exclusive and not interchangeable, though people use them erroneously that way.
If we were in a salon, a comfortable place where we could bounce ideas or opinions off one another, I would truly enjoy that. Sadly, we have blogs.
But I treat it at times as if it were more personal like a few of us were sitting around in a convivial salon.
thanks for the reply and the words. I also appreciate the “true” philosophy. Philosophy is the mother of all sciences. Philosophy is not elocution or daydreaming. This is what dishonest politicians do and sophists do. True philosophy is completely grounded in logic. It’s completely an exercise in logic so rare these days. Kinetic action in Ukraine is real, with these Ukronazis not knowing what 2 + 2 is. Everyone has an ideal. There is no neutrality. However, no person can achieve the perfect ideal. I like and follow the Christian ideal. I know that Marx gave the word ideology a negative meaning. Ideology when fanatical is indeed unhealthy, it is characteristic of a personality that does not appreciate the Aristotelian logic and does not have an eye for the collective, as we see perfectly happening with most alienated Ukrainians.
The Empire of Darkness sensates logic. The West worships the Illogical.
We both have a similar methodology.
Unfortunately, many 20th century western authors such as Foucault, Umberto Eco and others, now so idolized by the West, despite having some qualities, they deconstructed logic. The Zionist empire encouraged and rewarded the deconstruction of the truth. I wish that now the conflicts in Ukraine, and this false flag, will be wisely won by the Russian leadership.
Give them a taste of TOS -1 outside the City and if any got into the City it would be the last thing they ever do.
When Napoleon’s army approached Moscow the French assumed that the Russians would surrender. Picture thier amazement when they reached the city centre, only to find everyone gone!
They were so nonplussed that they marked time in Moscow until they finally decided to retreat. How that worked out, everyone knows.
How many Soviet citizens were still in Stalingrad when the battle was raging?
How about this Andrei?
Russia doesn’t wait for something to happen.
Ends the heightened forever and ever tensions placed on Russia/Resistance
Russia assumes control of events
Putin calls Biden and tells him should US/NATO not withdraw all lethal hardware from Ukraine within 72 hours all military assets in Ukraine, Poland , Romania & Baltics are gone.
The situation is that all western sponsored media will continue relentlessly pointing the finger whatever Russia does, or doesn’t do, on and on and on until Season 13, Episode 11, so what? Sanctions from Hell come and Russia have teething problems for 6-8 weeks. Europe shuts down as Russia demand payment in Gold, price of oil doubles/triples (revenues therefore remain similar ), Russia works 2 shifts building Russia Mongolia China Pipeline and connecting Asian infrastructure.
Come on, Venezuela and Cuba are facing sanctions from hell and are not Superpowers. Time for Russia and China to stop using Western Political Money Laundering Systems of Transfer.
Putin calls Biden and tells him should US/NATO not withdraw all lethal hardware from Ukraine within 72 hours all military assets in Ukraine, Poland , Romania & Baltics are gone.
That would certainly be a great way to start a continental war (possibly a nuclear one) Russia vs NATO
I think so!
The WAR started long ago. Economic, Information, Psychological, even Kinetic on a small scale.
From some armchairs avoiding an all out war may be desired for another decade, however, NATO are committing a lot of genocide around the globe and are on Russia’s, China’s porch.
Where does Euro-NATO get their energy for a war, if not to cut electricity to households and collapse the toxic system? The Great Unwashed in Europe won’t stand for it and those bought & paid for politicians/governments will be gone.
We witnessed US strength in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq they’ll come to the table bleating like lambs. Russia, China, Iran and Allies would be 1/9 with any bookmaker to see out WW3 in 6-9 months.
Kowtowing, bare existence for many is no way for a human to live.
I 2nd that !! I have the similar thought (if you read my comment above ) raise the oil price ,
stop sell oiil and gas to usa go to the gold money etc.
thank you Tom 123
And now surprise and welcome news of general evacuation of civilian population of Donbass to Russia!
Great analysis like the pro that you are .American politics are very individualistic, so nobody here understands the Russians who make collective decision making. Ask not what Mr. Putin will so, but what Team Russia will do.
Do you believe the U.S.-NATO surface-to-surface missile batteries installed in Eastern Europe and ready to launch will remain silent?
Do you believe the Crimean peninsula will not suffer “collateral damage” from the 100,000 UAF and U.S.-NATO during the assault all along the Donbass contact line?
Do you believe the U.S.-NATO warships berthed in the Black Sea region will stay in port or the air wings of the U.S. carrier groups steaming on station in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea will not engage in this fight?
Do you believe the RAF can swiftly respond to all these threats including an air and standoff missile attack against Sevastopol?
Do you believe Kaliningrad will not be harassed by U.S.-NATO?
Our Saker did not put the “All In” scenario up on the EBB (Event Battle Board) because he is a rational, thinking analyst whose years of experience tells him no one in Washington, DC is that stupid.
Do you believe U.S.-NATO is not crazy enough to do all these things together in a coordinated plan?
2) yes (that is to say that I don’t believe that Crimea will be attacked)
5) depends on your definition of “harassed”
6) I think that the US/NATO don’t have the forces needed to directly attack Russia, not even close. It would take them MONTHS to reach the needed force levels.
Andrei, does the LDNR have all the hardware they need to counter Event Option 1 without Russian help?
It is not about hardware, but about tactics and morale.
And yes, I believe that the LDNR can hold the LOC.
You are right. I think of the Houthis in Yemen who are definitely outgunned by the Saudis and the UAE (with American hardware) but are able to put up fierce resistance due to exactly what you said. Morale and tactics.
What they don’t have is airpower,not sure what air defences they have.
From Popular Mechanics (similar assessments elsewhere as well):
The Ukrainian Air Force has just 69 fighter jets in operation according to Flight Global’s Air Forces 2022 almanac. That includes 43 Mikoyan-Guerevich MiG-29 “Fulcrum” multi-role fighter-bombers and 26 Sukhoi Su-27 “Flanker” air superiority fighters (pictured at the top of this story). All of the fighters were built during the Cold War, based in the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic; Kyiv inherited the fighters when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
In other words, all of Ukraine’s fighters are at least 31 years old and the modern state has never bought a new fighter jet. The age problem is exacerbated by Ukraine’s inability to access new upgrades, weapons, and spare parts for both types of plane, which arch-enemy Russia produces. It’s unclear how many of Ukraine’s fighters are actually in flyable condition.
And there is certainly Russian S-400 near enough to Ukraine to cover the contact line. If Ukraine air power becomes a problem, both S-400 and Russian ECM would probably shut them down. It’s also certain that Donbass militias have some level of MANPADs which tended to keep the Ukraine Air Force grounded during much of the 2014 conflict.
about half of the Ukie aircraft are not flightworthy.
Thanks again for this wonderful analysis. My question is if Russia is forced to intervene to protect the Donbass, how far will they take it? Just defend that area or be more aggressive and move into Ukrainian territory? Of could they simply use their missiles and destroy the Ukrainian military along the contact line and all their military bases without putting one foot inside Ukrainian territory?
Also, when you say “I am personally convinced that the only way to solve both the specific LDNR option and to create a new security architecture in Europe will have to be achieved by Russian unilateral military operation: the folks in the West need yet another military defeat to come back to their senses (they need one about every century or so)….”, does this mean missile strikes on NATO countries? For example, the Baltics and Poland?
I know you hope this does not happen. War between NATO and Russia would be a bloody mess and the risk of nuclear war will skyrocket. However, I’m unsure how Russia responds beyond the matter of Ukraine, which as you have indicated, is simply no risk for NATO. Ukraine is not a member and NATO can standby and watch the slaughter while supplying weapons to Ukraine (benefiting US War Inc.), apply its sanctions from hell (benefiting the USA fossil fuel companies at the expense of Europe and USA citizens as well as the Russian economy), and create a new Iron Curtain (again benefiting US War Inc.). If all this happens, it means that there will truly be a polarized world economy, with the East and Global South moving increasingly towards China and Russia while sectors of the USA economy exhibit robust growth at the expense of citizens in both the USA and Europe. A sad and dangerous state of affairs……
“while sectors of the USA economy exhibit robust growth at the expense of citizens in both the USA and Europe. ” It will be next too impossible to have “robust growth” in any sector with a collapsing dollar and many countries probably turning to China/Russia financial institutions. It is all about the US$ and its global power hegemony.
For the USA fossil fuel companies, they want to drive the price up in Europe (and globally). This plays into their hands. The same with the War, Inc. contractors. Biden is set to increase the defense budget next year to $800 billion and I bet Congress adds even more. This amount of course does not cover all black box, intelligence, and surveillance operations financed by the USA government. But you get the idea….
It’s true there will be a decline in the value of the dollar – that’s already going on without any kind of war. But this will hurt the common citizen of the USA – not the weapons contractors or the USA energy sector. These companies are global entities. Look how many countries are using the F35, despite it’s poor record.
How about Russia recognizing Donestk and Luhansk as indepedent states and then stationing peacekeeping forces in the republics, like they did in South Ossetia?
That is almost certainly going to happen.
The only question is how Russia will justify that decision.
The best way is to force the Ukies to attack and try to break through the LDNR defenses
They will bypass the cities, to let them breach the first tactical echelon
They destroy them and declare that Russia is recognizing the republics.
I believe that chances are high that we will see this soon
To whom would Russia have to justify that decision?
To Russia population
Pretty good breakdown. I’m thinking the Russians have good intel and know precisely what is happening, when it will happen and what their response will be. Also believe that the best strategy might be Debaltseve 2; that is, evac the target area after the breakthrough, let them penetrate, then close the kettle–preferably with non-Russian forces. No violence at all on the Ukrainian side of the contact line. Keep in mind this is not primarily a military operation. The actual target, as Michael Hudson points out, is affecting the behavior of Western Europe. Also a factor that mitigates against escalation is the predictable spike in energy prices, which has a huge effect on Western economies.
@ Jim Miles
I agree iif China,Russia and opec countries went to the Gold standard for ,it would be all over ,
One way or the other !!!!
I just heard that Biden will address the nation again, apparently about the Ukraine and apparently around 1600 EST.
What YT channel do you think is best to listen to that live?
White House YT channel:
White House on YouTube .
Raggedy Ann is on the podium.
Even if Russia doesn’t get involved the filth in the Western media will say they are,they have been saying that for years already.
I just hope there will be no more ceasefires every time the Ukrainian army gets mauled by the bear.
Those were pretty large tactical mistakes in the past.
Those were pretty large tactical mistakes in the past.
What are you referring to?
What “tactical mistakes”?
The constant ceasefires when the Ukrainians were on their knees.
Those mistakes. They only prolonged the suffering.
You clearly have no idea what you are talking about. Adding the word “tactical” does not help.
“Tactical” sells a lot of sunglasses, knives, and pens. :)
I remember a defining period/moment in my life when I walked around on tiptoes, eggshells, avoiding this place and that for fear of a bully and his hangers-on who for reason/s unknown had it in for me. Went on for a few months, was miserable, questioning how much longer I could take it, even asking straight up one day, why? For a psychopath there’s no why. The insults became greater, nasty rumours were spread in a small tight community where everyone knew everyone. Then one day a red-line was crossed, my younger brother came to me saying he’d been verbally abused by said bully & gang. Next day, I knew where Mr Bully would be drinking and walked into the bar armed with a baseball bat (I wouldn’t have needed that bat as I was so filled with pent up aggression with the strength of 3 that I could’ve strangled him to death bare hands despite him being a good 5 years older, early 20’s and 50lbs heavier, but there were hangers-on, I’m not that stupid ) and proceeded to club Mr Bully until I was pulled off. Not a word of a lie, the hangers-on and several other witnesses disappeared, barmen/women/landlord (all apparently hated Mr Bully also ) seen/heard nothing and it was his evidence against mine when charged with GBH. From that day until I left my home town 2 years later, it was Mr Bully and not I peeking out from behind the curtains.
USA = Mr Bully, Hangers-On = Europe , I = Anyone who won’t submit to threats.
Are there any indications of military support coming from Chechnya? The Chechens were instrumental and absolutely formidable in the Debaltsevo rout of the Ukronazis exactly seven years ago. Given the prevalent public mood in Russia, I predict Kadyrov would instantly become an all-time hero if the Chechens volunteer again for Mother’s cause, smashing the Ukronazis and their allies resoundingly in the process. And while Putin is soon turning 69, Kadyrov is just 45 years old and could take Russia’s resolve to a wholly new level.
Time is on Russia’s side. The West badly wants that war/conflict and if it does not happen large-scale in the next few weeks their narrative is starting to fall apart. I also suppose that the Ukie army is less than thrilled with the prospect of a large scale attack on the Donbass republics (apart from the Nazi fanatics) and I expect mass desertions in that case.
Nothing to add. Very clear analysis: the Russian Bear is out of his den waiting and watching carefully and ready for the next move. The time is playing for him as the public opinion in Russia is warming up exasperated by the Western provocations.
I guess it’s the emergency of the American financial crisis which initiates all this desperate gesticulations.
I feel very sorry for the civilians who are going to loose their lives for so much stupidity.
It appears that the recent cyber attacks against the Ukraine were either a false flag or didn’t even happen at all.
Ditto the hogwash about Belarus forcing RyanAir flight FR4978 to land in Minsk:
According to Sputnik, a powerful blast has now rocked Luhansk.
vid on rt com….gas pipeline is postulated.
“Alarming” or “alarming” fire – an artillery duel in a wasteland, beneficial to both sides, has been waged by the parties since 2015. They benefit, they pay for it.
And the fact that they do not get where they shoot is the disposal of old expired ammunition and crooked artillery barrels, which there is nothing to replace.
For alarmists: you can / should pay attention to official information, confirmed by photos and videos. And it’s not a fact…
This is a network-centric war – get used to the feks if you still believe the media / ICT.
the disturbing fire
Excellent assessment based on realistic analysis. Let chess master Putin do his own analysis. He knows when and how to react. This is his forte. To those who are anxious about the final outcome, just sit back and enjoy the show. Russian strategy has never failed the world. With Xi and Putin in command the outcome is a forgone conclusion. The future of mankind is safe and secure. Sleep well and the sun will rise as usual.
And at midnight (MSK), Joe Biden will speak… and stop the Catastrophe.
The media will shout bis-bravo, and you, who believed in a farce, all will whistle and hoot. )))
He is already 51 minutes late.
Maybe they are changing his batteries?
A staff member has lost the mop handle usually used to prop him up. Scrambling around looking for a replacement…..(allegedly).
Or waiting for the medications to kick him into full on aggressive mode if thats how the handlers want it
I guess there is something awry with the battery chemistry even if they do change the batteries
Had a nice giggle at that Andrei
Saker..who knows if not diapers…remember Vatican bathroom accident…
If it is possible to evacuate all the civilian population from Donbass while they defenses work, this gives another scenario nobody did talk about yet:
As soon as all civilians are across the Russian border, Russia can sit back call for peace and watch and document the Ukraine wasting their resources while destroying their ‘own’ territory. This would mean a masterpiece in logistics, but perhaps this is what the Russian Military is preparing covertly in the last weeks. It would be hard for many people to leave their homeland, but I believe starting a new live in Russia wouldn’t be worse than living in a war zone and Russia is big enough to give them a perspective especially with the solidarity of the ordinary Russian people.
I think protecting the population of the Donbass within her own borders is the best Russia can possibly do:
– She would avoid any military costs or losses.
– It is much easier to give humanitarian aid in a place with working infrastructure and general safety.
– it would be impossible to frame Russia as aggressive in any way
– Ukraine (and Supporters) would loose endless resources in an guerilla war
– If there are no people to ‘free’ and ‘protect’ it will be harder to keep motivation up in the Ukrainian army and propaganda.
– If Ukraine finally wins, they not only bear the costs of reconstruction themself, they also have to find people willing to live there. Empty territory does not pay any taxes…
– as long as there is guerilla-resistance, Ukraine is still in a active conflict, preventing it from entering NATO
This would be as I was told Aikido works: do not use any direct force, just guide and use the movements of your opponents in a way, they get imbalanced from their own force.
Did I miss something important? For me this fits perfectly to everything I see.
For a mixture of good and bad reasons, historically, the Russians have experimented with moving large populations across their vast geography. What has always impressed me in my reading about World War II is the USSR’s mass relocation of entire manufacturing plants beyond the Ural Mountains in 1941 to get them out of reach of Hitler’s bombers. This included all the skilled workers and managers who were moved with their families and restarted these huge factories within weeks.
It seems to me that Putin is applying this recipe but with a strong human touch. First he evacuates children and women. Who can argue with that! And his next step could be the complete transfer of industrial and civilian equipment to neighboring regions in Russia, while the Donbass militia, supported materially, holds the contact line.
This would consistent with Putin’s own words (I think) that Russia does not need more territory, but more people.This initiative is well within Russia’s means, skills and historical experience. Well executed, this operation would be very humiliating for the West but totally aligned with Russia’s public opinion.
“Lastly, there is something morally repugnant in the attitude of those who see warfare as anything but the weapon of last resort.“
Saker, I salute you. This is the most uplifting and clear-sighted statement I have read on this issue. It would be the most disheartening thing for humanity if with the decline of Empire we trade one set of psychopathic warmongers for another.
The world is a tattered and tired place. We need leaders with vision and moral fabric who build not ones who steal and destroy.
I’m obviously not in the Donbass nor have any priviledged knowledge, but a few givens:
1. Russian intel will be 100%; every bit/byte/radio pulse coming out of 404 and surrounds will be being hovered up and analysed automatically; the Ukie forces will have embedded spies
2. The plan and the Defence of Donbass will be being handled by Russian Generals
3. This has been trained for and game planned ad nauseam by Russia – not just militarily, but in all dimensions.
4. Russia has total escalation dominance; if the SHTF the VERY FINAL option will be to send in Russian forces and wipe out anything standing.
As others have commented, it makes sense to evacuate civilians from the immediate areas; let the Ukies through the first echelon, then close the cauldron and unleash hell. The stupid never learn. Once Kadyrov gets involved, even if not formally, then if I were a Ukie or USA/UK military I’d be running for the exit.
Closing Chernobyl to the public is turning it into a battlefield tomorrow.
I saw a report that in Donbass the cars are clogging the roads on the way to the Russian borders,and the gas stations have hundreds of cars lined up at them. In was also reported that at the Russian border all the men of military age were being turned back and directed to a Donbass recruiting station.While I can’t verify these reports they make sense,so I think they may very well be true.
Looks like there is going to be mass exodus of refugees to Russia. A bit like Kosovo – for the whole world to see…difficult to claim that it is false flag from the Russian side
For years I’ve been silently reading your blog, learning a lot from you. Again, your analysis is spot on, especially the point about these movements of the Urainian Army being a provocation to make Russia overtly intervene in the Donbass…
Just one thing, maybe a foolish thought, maybe not, but a full on attack of the Donbass by Kiev, I suspect it will trigger a UNSC emergency meeting called by Russia, on the rightfull concern of the UNSC sanctioned Minsk Agreements being broken by Kiev… and a very public humilliation of the US, UK and the awkward position France would be left at, being one part of the Normandy group, in any of the two developments I see would happen:
1) the public support for a Russian led UN peacekeeping mission to the Donbass sanctioned by the very same people supporting Kiev (UK,US and the other NATO member), to force the compliance with Minsk Agreements by Kiev.
2) The complete breakup of the Minsk Agreements by force of vetos of the NATO bunch against such peacekeeping mission, thus allowing Russia to intervene overtly in the conflict, as a result of the complete destruction of the credibility of the NATO bunch and publicly revealing their hipocrisy in allowing a bloodbath in the Donbass by Kiev, having stated their complete support of the Agreement in the past few weeks.
As you said, time is on Russia side.
You see any possibility this will happen?
Thank you for your work, and keep it going!
You missed another possibility which is exactly what has happened. Remove all the civilians and leave the men to fight the Ukro Nazis. I would also imagine that the LNDR military has been preparing exactly for this scenario. Wait for the electronic warfare, the exact targeting and leave it to the LNDR to knock out the core of their forces.
Agree with this assessment. The evacuations going on are simply for humanitarian reasons, a “due diligence” to prevent any unnecessary casualties to the most vulnerable. There is no “grand plan” behind them, although the evacuations plans obviously have been in place for a while, again as “due diligence.”
I would expect one Russian move in the near future if the situation escalates would be to request an emergency session of the UNSC, as they did in the Georgia conflict, to “dot the i and cross the t” before responding militarily.
Personally, I’m all for trying to find a diplomatic solution to the problem of the Donbass till it is well and truly exhausted; after which Clausewitz’s dictum that war is merely a continuation of politics/policy comes into play.
I like the table at the top of the article, which is predicated on the advance made by Ukrainian forces into LDNR territory. I totally agree with the incremental steps that RF would take in case of escalation of hostilities by the Ukrainians. Allow me to add just a few points:
1. I think in the event of a large-scale assault, the Donbass will have to sustain some damage — in terms of lives and materiel — in the first few days while Russia establishes some facts at the international level, particularly in the UN, but also among certain western states with whom it is talking: RF establishes the Ukraine as the aggressor and gives clear warning of its own impending military response.
2. If I have my, admittedly very basic, understanding of Russian doctrine correct, when RF moves, it will employ massive force with the aim of shocking the enemy and making it desist in its aggression. RF action will involve non-contact warfare ie use of stand-off weapons as often mentioned here in the Vineyard. RF action will be round the clock, with no let-up. RF will also employ new weapons, Khinzal, Avangard, Zircon, etc, for effect but equally important, for demonstration and for validation of said systems. Other things being equal, RF will signal that it intends to limit the combat to the Ukraine, most probably east of the Dnieper. With some exceptions, — eg Ukrainian units with Nazi elements integrated into them — RF will cease hostilities immediately the moment the Ukrainians shout ‘enough.’
3. In the much wider world, RF will step-up its politico-military pressure — finely modulated, mind — on the Empire in Syria, the eastern Med south of the Dardanelles, GIUK gap, Far East, etc.
4. Having said all that, I read somewhere that around 60% of Ukrainian imports of fuels and lubricants actually come from the the Union State — RF and Belarus. Conceivably they could cut of supplies and the Ukrainian war machine would grind to a halt within a matter of days; in fact Lukashenko threatened to do just that if the Donbass is attacked. There’ll be consequences for Germany and Europe of course. Most likely RF won’t do it but to my mind there’s no harm in letting Germans and other Euros taste the ‘fruit’ that results from messing around with Russia; why, it may even shape minds around the need for a new security architecture that guarantees security for all.
I’m glad the women and children are being taken to safety.
Donbas forces will have that nagging worry of family getting hurt taken away , morale and combat effectiveness will be even higher
You missed one boss. Sabotage the infrastructure of the Ukraine until they stop the attacks. A gas pipeline in eastern Ukraine just blew up. Hmmmm.
Good old plausible deniability.
There’s one thing we’re not considering. Ukronazi attacks against LDNR are never reported in western media. If LDNR responds in self-defense, western media propagandists will simply say Russia has finally invaded… they will make no distinction between Russian forces and Russian-backed separatists. So, Putin is right in saying economic sanctions are going to be applied no matter what they do.
Putin’s extreme patience can be compared to the invasion of Scythia (Ukraine) by Darius the Great of Persia around 620 BC.
The Scythian army, which was 100% cavalry, kept just out of his reach, leading the Persians deeper and deeper into Scythia.
When they finally drew up the lines for battle, a rabbit was startled, and the entire Scythian army chased it.
Darius concluded that he could not fight madmen, and returned the way he had come.
Andrei, you surely remember the NATO orchestrated ” Oluja ” offensive. The nationalist Tudman did not pay the price but “only” the displaced Orthodox Christians of Croatia. Many managed to build a new life in Serbia, most did not. But the result of this NATO-supported expulsion of Orthodox Christians was the arming and training of the ultra-nationalist Kosovo Liberation Army, which Mr. Gelbarth had to justify even before the US Senate. Kosovo, a province of Serbia, was thus illegally annexed by NATO with the illegal intervention in the internal affairs of Serbia. All internal treaties of Yugoslavia were simply broken. I see the situation today with LDNR similar. Minks agreement is simply declared invalid. Contract compliance is not the thing of NATO and the so-called civilized world. And the electorate in this world is subjected to permanent brainwashing since 2001, they believe everything that is spread by the news infotainment industry. It is becomming revolting. They need a lesson
A good analysis Andrei. It seems Russia is holding all the good cards and the civilians in the danger zones in the breakaway republics are being evacuated to Russia and safety.
I think we need to remember some reasons why Boris and creepy Jo are orchestrating this crisis, to distract from domestic issues as well as the death throes of US hegemony.
Another term for this artillery from Ukraine might be, “H&I,” Harassment, and Interdiction, as we used artillery in Vietnam, another US war crime. I was a true believer back in those days and, regrettably, for some time after.
Good points,as for you once being a believer,i have family in the US,one of my cousins served in Vietnam with the Marines,and he went there more than once,over the years i met him several times he also was a believer,sad thing is he died before he could come to his senses,it was unbelievable how brainwashed he was,i knew far more than he did about the History of Vietnam,other than that he was a great guy you would be happy to have a beer with.
this short analysis from you has served multiple purposes, not least because it provides a genuine simulation based on the ground realities.
And, like all logical and rational fellows, i concur with your observation that war is like something of last resort. However, the current situation is deteriorating so rapidly that we have to keep our fingers crossed.
From the options Saker identified, full attack on LDNR seems like a zero-risk win-win strategy for Ukrainians. If Russia fails to intervene in force, they will clean up LDNR (sorry, but I do not believe LDNR stands a chance against Ukrainian military). If Russia intervenes, it will trigger termination of NS2 and other painful sanctions against Russia.
There is zero risk in any of this for Ukrainian regime. Russia will carry all the risks and bear all the costs, including the costs of rebuilding LDNR. And if it isn’t a another geopolitical masterstroke by president Putin, skillfully maneuvering Russia into this position, I don’t know what it is!
‘I hear one argument: what about the innocent civilians murdered in the LDNR?
What about them?
Does anybody seriously think that a Russian intervention will result in less casualties than what is currently taking place?’
I get your drift, and understand it’s from the perspective of an analyst. But looking at the Christian perspective, something has to be done to protect those people – ethnic Russians mostly. Busing people out as has begun last few days and is great to see. Russia must take charge of this and press for evacuations. We know what US/NATO is up to. It’s inevitable now. Its like sitting beside a gambler about to lose everything at the table. As an observer you can see it happening, but the gambler is so caught up in greed they can’t see the obvious – that they are f’d. As stupid as it may be to any rational observer, the US/NATO (and whomever else is behind the curtain) are going through with this and likely get their asses handed to them as a result. Russia has done all it can. At the very least though, get the civilians especially women and kids, to safety behind Russia’s lines before all hell breaks lose.
IMO Kremlin wants to fight soon – the current geopolitical situation is very favorable
Yes, they need a good casus belli, ideally LOC moving several kilometers into one of the republics
Kiev does not want that – they just want to tease the bear and then beg for more money. Their biz model is – kick the Russians – collect payment – wait few months – repeat
The US and Ukraine are beginning to look like two fraudsters both of whom believes he can out fraud the other.
It strikes me that there is a certain intriguing symmetry in the US regime’s current prattling about Putin scheming a “false flag” op when it was in fact Putin who sabotaged Obama’s attempt to use a false flag chemical attack in Syria to justify attacking that country – where Russian forces were present at the invitation of the legal, elected government and protecting their country’s vital national interests. This smells like the vindictive vengeance (and constant global destabilization) that one small Middle Eastern nation with great power ambitions is rather notorious for.
A shell exploded 0.6 mile inside Russia Donbass border.
Denis Pulishin said full scale war in Eastern Ukraine could break out any moment, the situation is very critical.
Assume one car of two people gets waved past the border every 6 seconds, or 20 people a minute. 1200 an hour. Roughly 25,000 people a day, full-on nonstop. Then it would take 28 days to evacuate 700,000 souls along a single highway at that rate. 14 days if always 4 people in every car.
How many highways cross the border? Passenger trains?
Unless they can support packing people into non-stop subway trains Tokyo style, the logistics are not looking favorable to me.
China has its own plan for sure. I ve just thought that now could be apropriate time to take Taiwan back, now that the gang of the ”free” are occipied harassing Russia.
Here are two of the latest reports from the front lines in Donbass. They are very short videos because the situation is so critical. One of them talks about the Ukie shelling of Russian territory.I suspect that is either a case of bad targeting,or a neo-nazi or NATO loyalist wanting to make a statement.They may get more than they hoped for as a way of a statement back,we’ll wait and see.The other is a report from one of the pick-up points for refugees fleeing to Russia:
Mass Evacuation in Anti Ukraine Donetsk People’s Republic Evacuation Point
Breaking From Donetsk: Russia Says Ukraine Has Fired On Russian Territory (This Is Huge)
Ukro-Nazis have been preparing for a major offensive on Donbass republics since the shameful defeats in 2014-2015, Anglo-Zionists supplied them with munitions, arms and instructors. Now there reportedly scoundrel mercenaries from Kosovo etc. An interview with Oleg Tzarev, a former deputy of the Ukraine’s parliament, gives some light on Ukrs’ plans . “Zelensky will give the order to start a military operation in the near future”
From the unrecognized republics of the DPR and the LPR, news comes about increased shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. A general mobilization has been announced there. The evacuation of civilians is in full swing. It seems that things are still going to war. If it happens, which scenario of events is most likely? We talked about this with the MK edition: – Oleg Anatolyevich, should we wait for the war?
– Now I have no doubt that there will be a war. I claim this based on the information I received from Kiev. Zelensky will order the start of a military operation in the Donbas in the very near future, and Ukraine intends to implement the “Croatian” scenario there, previously tested in the former Yugoslavia. The President of Ukraine himself is now trying to escape from the country to Germany to participate in the Munich Security Conference. And Biden is against it, they want him to stay in the country, and he’s running. The situation is ridiculous.
– What do you think will be the scenario of the outbreak of hostilities?
– I know that now there will be an escalation of the conflict on the borders of the unrecognized republics. I do not know how Russia and the republics themselves will react to this, but I think they will react quite harshly.
– Will NATO forces be involved in this operation?
– We are now at the culmination point of the Western scenario, to which Ukraine has been led for quite a long time. When the United States and Great Britain began to concentrate NATO troops in Eastern Europe, it became clear that Ukraine was being prepared for war with the Russian Federation and sacrificed. These troops are clearly not enough to conduct military operations against the Russian Federation, but enough to take control of the western regions of Ukraine. This scenario was in plain sight. Everyone saw how embassies were taken to Lviv, how NATO troops were concentrated in Eastern Europe. I believe that under this scenario, NATO troops will enter the territory of Ukraine and occupy its western part.
– And Russia?
– We’ll see how it really turns out there. I do not know how Russia will react. But I have no doubt that the commands have already been given and there will be an Ukrainian attack on Donbass.
– Maybe they will go to Rostov?
– You said that a purge of the “disloyal element” is being prepared in Ukraine itself.
– Lists of unreliable citizens began to be prepared six months ago. This information has been confirmed from different regions, including Kiev. It was a long and painstaking job. In 2014, only six people were killed by my fellow deputies, and 200 people were killed in total, just not all of them were in plain sight, like the writer Buzina. They are preparing to launch the same scenario now. It will begin to be implemented from the beginning of next week. This is an operation of the special services, and the perpetrators will be Ukrainian Nazis. And do not think that we are talking about arrests, they do not have time for this. The “pro-Russian element” will be physically annihilated. We are talking about opposition politicians, journalists, bloggers.
– The British press, with reference to the CIA, claims that the Kremlin sees you as the head of the future “puppet” government of Ukraine. What do you think about your new “assignment”?
– We have drawn a gloomy scenario for the future. Now everything is being done by the Russian Federation to stop its implementation. I hope that Russia will be able to do this. But if she fails to keep Kiev and the West from rash steps, then Ukraine as such, as well as its government and the post of “president of Ukraine” will no longer exist.”
Once “ the mother of sanctions” is in place Russia and China could implement financial measures and trade embargo’s that could put some pain back on the west. Obviously being export economies they would feel some themselves but a few thoughts are:
China limit meat and grain imports to non EU (they already get a lot from Brazil, Argentina, and wheat from Russia)
Russia cease export or place a surtax on nickel, titanium, rhodium, rhenium etc. going to EU, simply cease to USA
Russia cease oil and gas flows transiting Ukraine
Both countries demand pre payment in gold for steel, fertilizer, cement exports.
China cease petrochemical imports from USA and suck up Middle East supply that goes to EU.
I think expanded trade within BRICs could soften the pain while allowing Russia and China to apply some to US / EU. Brazil could even slow down food and timber exports to US and EU or place surtax.
Saker, great work I am a fan after first reading anything on this site. I left on comment but also have a provocative question. Have you considered a gambit wherein the Nazis are very power crazy and (either simultaneously or after being lulled by a retreat and regroup to Crimea maneuver) go wildly on a coup and committing genocide on minority Russians in Kherson, Odessa, Kharkiv, Zaperozhia, Dneperpetrovsk, even in Kiev. Zelensky flees the country and the Scaboda, Right Sector, C14, Azov coalition takes over. At that point it is hard for NATO and to deny their existence. Russia can claim US Biden admin and NATO were complicit in crimes against humanity and demand UN and World court action and at that time recognize Donetsk and Lughansk and send in peace keepers. Also encourage the rest of Novirussia to seek help. Crazy but possible scenario.