by Stephen Karganovic
Just as, a bit over a week ago, we speculated might happen Serbia’s mass anti-regime protests, which began as if on cue the day after the apparently “not so free and unfettered” April 2 Presidential election, have now abated significantly, yet without any publically obvious reason. None of the protesters’ objections (many of them legitimate and sensible) were seriously entertained by the authorities. The mass enthusiasm to “bring the rascals to account,” which was so evident on Serbia’s streets before the Easter weekend, has mainly vanished into thin air. If we take the Easter weekend as the watershed separating daily mass protests involving tens of thousands, in twenty cities and towns across Serbia, from post-holiday crowds, now shrunken to barely one or two hundred, one must wonder: what changed over that weekend? Did thousands of former dissidents suddenly get religion, decide to turn the other cheek to the regime, and begin staying at home? Or was there, from the start of these “spontaneous” protests, more to them than met the eye?
(Spontaneous, indeed! As the German communist master propagandist Willi Munzenberg, from whom even Goebbels learned a thing or two, slyly noted in his day: “These people have the belief that they are actually doing this themselves. This belief must be preserved at any price.” Of course it must be, otherwise the whole game is given away.)
To be sure, over the holiday weekend there was no improvement in Serbia’s condition, which continues to be dismal on all fronts, that would warrant this sudden decision, inexplicably taken by so many foot-soldiers of Serbia’s incipient Color Revolution, to cease and desist from street agitation. Their decision to do so, in fact, was just as mysterious and “spontaneous” as their previous decision, on April 3, to begin turning out in droves onto the streets on a daily basis.
In our April 12 preliminary analysis of the protests, at a time when they were still swelling by the day, we were bold enough to speculate that if their nature and intensity were to suddenly change, Sen. John McCain’s April 10 visit to Belgrade might have something to do with it. Indeed, if a situation is imaginable where the principle of post hoc ergo propter hoc, in academic logic regarded as a fallacy, might nevertheless find a legitimate application, it is every time that Sen. McCain pays a visit to a troubled country and soon thereafter certain odd effects are seen to ensue.
In this case, one of the first “odd effects” that followed was the almost magical abatement of street protests which until then had greatly unnerved the authorities, although they tried valiantly to keep a stiff upper lip about it. McCain, be it recalled, among other things is also the head of the International Republican Institute (IRI), a subsidiary of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED). His Institute’s specialty, in conjunction with NED, is organizing and financing Color Revolutions, not calming them down. Wherever McCain shows up (remember Kiev?) unrest intensifies, it does not abate. Hence, the unnatural, reverse sequence of recent events in Belgrade is very odd, and even a textbook logical fallacy explains it better than mere coincidence.
The best explanation for the hiatus in the protests is that, following closely upon the deep impression left by weeklong unrest, with all the standard features of the dreaded Color Revolution, the bully McCain came to deliver its marching orders to the regime. One can imagine the impact of this double whammy, from below and from above, on Serbia’s servile and insecure leadership. The pressure from below has been temporarily relaxed while the regime’s compliance with the demands from above is being tested.
The Empire’s demands are not especially difficult to fathom, even for one who admittedly was not a fly on the wall during the meeting while they were being handed down. In a nutshell, with regard to Serbia the chief imperial concerns are these: neutralizing Serbia as a perceived conduit for Russian influence in the Balkans (that includes imposing sanctions and refraining from military cooperation with Russia, as well as a firm commitment against any new version of South Stream – waffling on the last point was the undoing of the otherwise West-friendly Gruevski government in neighboring Macedonia), acceleration of the NATO accession process, and “normalization” of relations with the NATO sponsored criminal entity known as the “Republic of Kosovo.” The current regime, to be sure, has made significant and commendable strides in all these areas, but its hesitation to go all the way – just as open conflict with Russia looms – causes considerable dismay. History buffs will recall that the Yugoslav government was in the almost identical position in March of 1941, as it was being pressured by Hitler to make up its mind without delay and align with the Axis, thus securing Germany’s strategic rear before the start of the Russian campaign in June of that year. Mutatis mutandis, in that regard the strategic logic remains unchanged.
This particular reading of the imperial agenda, far from being overly speculative, was confirmed remarkably in a revealing April 13 Op-Ed piece in “The New York Times”. That was just days after McCain’s Belgrade visit and the dressing-down he gave to Serbia’ leadership, and while McCain was on the second leg of his tour, visiting his minions in Pristina. The text was published over the signature of Kosovo “foreign minister,” Enver Hoxhaj. Here are some excerpts from that editorial that should have been illuminating not just for the general public, but also and in particular for Serbia’s cornered leadership:
“Russia is clearly using Serbia not just to regain a foothold in the Balkans, but also to seek vengeance on NATO, the United States and the West with schemes to restore the regional prominence it lost when the Soviet empire collapsed.
“Now, in their presidential election on April 2, Serbians have not only endorsed a nationalist government that continues to defy Kosovo’s independence; they have also provided a needed victory for Russia, which only days before had authorized a new shipment of fighter jets and battle tanks for Serbia, obviously to help it regain power in the Balkans.
“In this pursuit, Serbia can therefore be expected to create, at Russia’s behest, a sphere of influence by exploiting and inciting Serb minorities in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro and, to an extent, Croatia and Macedonia — leaving them weak states to dominate while it pursues entry to the European Union just when the union is preoccupied by internal challenges of its own and the international order itself is exposed to multiple uncertainties.
“Similar provocative acts, backed by Russia, have taken place in Bosnia and Herzegovina and in Montenegro, which experienced a failed coup attempt that would have shaken that country’s democratic institutions and prevented Montenegro from membership in NATO, a process now underway.
“The most worrisome development is Serbia’s rapid militarization, with Russia supplying air defense systems and other sophisticated military equipment. Serbia’s expanded military serves as a tool for pre-emptive coercion of its neighbors while Russia asserts its own influence in the region.”
And to drive all the preceding points home:
“It is important to see Russia’s use of Serbia in its grand scheme to regain power (…) Russia not only supports Serbia’s ambitions; it also underwrites them. Russia has never been welcomed as a broker to the Balkans.”
McCain’s aggressive anti-Russian barrage in Belgrade was delivered in his characteristically brazen style and, most uncharmingly, was specifically designed to put his fidgety hosts on the hot seat. It encompassed a litany of anti-Russian rhetoric essentially identical to what was almost simultaneously published by Hoxhaj in “The New York Times”. Viewed in conjunction, these pronouncements have all the earmarks of a well-coordinated intimidation campaign.
I would therefore argue that simply dismissing Hoxhaj’s editorializing as presumptuous nonsense would be a mistake. On the contrary, it is an indirect but, considering the contemptible source, for the Serbian leadership a deliberately humiliating warning message. They ought to read it very carefully and seriously, with the same degree of attention that in the period of the Soviet Union would have been paid to the pronouncements of a Soviet satellite foreign minister, obviously drafted at Moscow’s behest and suggestion. The views attributed to Kosovo’s “foreign minister” in fact contain some important hints of the possible motives behind the unrest on Serbia’s streets, organized undoubtedly by the Color Revolution agentur of the ultimate bosses of both gangs, the one in Kosovo and the one in Serbia.
Plainly speaking, the intended effect of the street turmoil was to generate sufficient pressure from below to concentrate the regime’s less than brilliant minds on the salutary task of fully carrying out their commitments. Those obligations were solemnly undertaken before their stern masters several years ago, in return for their being invested to rule over their satrapy.
The practical masters have decided, and quite rationally, to grant the current regime a temporary reprieve in order to stimulate it to first complete its unfinished business. That business is summarized by the three portentous words that, for the people of Serbia, are overcharged with the strongest positive and negative connotations: Russia, NATO, and Kosovo. The completion of these ignoble tasks will be the current regime’s last duty before it is finally jettisoned. The replacement team, which is already being groomed, will then take over, but with a “clean slate.” As is being done cyclically, another spent regime will be sacrificed to prolong the life of the subservient colonial system. The next regime will thus be given a whitewashed human façade, making it palatable for another brief cycle. Most importantly, it will be able to assert, and with some plausibility, that while it considers its predecessors’ policy decisions to be regrettable, oh well, pacta sunt servanda and there is no going back on them.
That precisely, it should be recalled, was the current regime’s rationalization, at the time when it was being installed, for slavishly assenting to the disastrous commitments that were made by its discredited predecessors.
We can now conclude that street unrest in Serbia that from the outset seemed stage managed and lacked the feel of a genuine expression of popular discontentment, is at this stage – a charade. It was a warning dry run, a carefully orchestrated exercise to send an intimidating message to the regime while laying out the infrastructural groundwork for the real Color Revolution that is to come. And it will break out unfailingly, just as “spontaneously” as the current rehearsal, as soon as the regime is irredeemably discredited and renders itself utterly useless by complying with the suicidal demands that have been put to it, all in the vain hope of gaining the masters’ favor and extending its tenure.
Our hypothesis will be tested and demonstrated, or found wanting, very shortly. Watch carefully the fragile regime’s servile performance on three key fronts: Russia, NATO, and Kosovo, for signs of its imminent downfall soon thereafter. It will be relegated to the dunghill by the same hand that raised its chieftains to ephemeral prominence in the first place.
It will be a fitting comeuppance for undereducated and greedy morons who were not paying attention in school while the class was discussing Goethe’s Faust and learning about what happens to those who enter into foolish bargains with the Devil.
Some quote marks could help the reader puzzle out which are others’ comments and which are yours.
Granted but I did find the use of a new paragraph and colon sufficient enough.
Now back to the content of Stefan’s post. Recently Serbian government was forced to retract a proposal with which the kids as young as three would have been exposed to gender fluidity and other deviancies. There was a genuine momentum gathering not from the Otpor activists but from honest, hardworking and impoverished parents who openly declared that they will pull their kids out of schools and kindergartens.
Not wanting an additional issue while figuring out what to do with the impossible-to-complete, even suicidal, orders given by the Neocon crazyguy, the government decided to postpone the implementation of said “education”.
It remains to be seen what is to become of us Serbs. But it must be said that we held on as much as humanly possible. We are the only nation that fought against whole of NATO and our experience has been used against NATO in all other wars since including the recent Syria incident. A great number of tomahawks NATO-US fired at us in 1999 were brought down but our military and the parts were shipped to all the parties interested. We have been brought to our knees by traitors in our own ranks and I don’t think we will pull out but at least we tried.
They want to turn our education system into the brainwashing institutions they have in the West. You can’t have patriotism and a heteronormative society in the West.
That doesn’t mean I hate the gays, it’s just that I don’t want to be brainwashed by this culture.
Interesting analagy between events happening today and those of 1941.
Why does NATO think Serbia so valuable geo-strategically in the war against Russia? The Russians don’t seem to think so. I guess I ‘m still trying to figure out why, after dismembering us and surrounding us, does the empire still want more from us…you’d think they had other fish to fry.
@Serbian Girl: “why, after dismembering us and surrounding us, does the empire still want more from us…” ?
You can find an answer in The Story of O. She starts by obeying her “lover’s” request to wear no panties in public; goes on to obey his request to submit to his friends; and ends by kneeling before him for permission to kill herself. It’s called Full Spectrum Dominance.
Hi Serbian Girl !
I think Serbia is very strategic for NATO because its loyal to Russia – NATO wants Serbia to be gone – pathetic I know,
But a compliment –
In other words, – little Serbia is terrifying the huge foo-foo called the USA – and I can well understand this, as people from Serbia are tough and with all the meddling that the Anglos have done, this will have improved this quality –
what a sweet message, thank you for your positivity. I don’t know if we are tough but our situation, economically and politically, is tough. We might be facing another war in the region, the signs are ominous:
1. The Albanians have declared they want more foreign territory. The president of Albania, the “president” of Kosovo, have come out with a coordinated statement on their desire to create Greater Albania with more land from Serbia (Kosovo was not enough) and Macedonia.
2. The Macedonian crisis will not go away. Now the EU is ready to impose sanctions on Macedonia. Who are they they looking to punish, I wonder? Recently a drone being flown at a soccer match with a map of Greater Albania…no-one in Brussels or Washington is condemning these provocations. The Albanians are basically being used by EU and US as an anti-Russian buttress in the Balkans. Thankfully Lavrov is on to this, but what he will actually do about it is unclear…
Here is a great summary in English about what is happening .
“Responding to the crisis in Macedonia, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has accused the US and EU of interfering in the internal affairs of the country and of supporting “the Greater Albania project which includes vast areas in a number of Balkan states.”
By Washington playing the Albanian card in Macedonia, the country could cease to exist or could be reduced significantly in size, thus limiting any future Russian presence there.”
The protests do not matter even if the Serbian government were to be toppled by them. As long as Serbian people (I’m one of them) perceive that the West is openly hostile towards Russia it will cause us to resist the West (of course not on an individual level)
EU officials know this of course and that’s why Serbia is unlikely to ever enter the EU. They have enough problems with the Hungarians and the Poles. Just imagine Serbia having Veto rights in the EU – they will never allow this.
Only Germany, US and to a lesser extent France have veto rights in the EU. See what they did to Greece.
Now that IS a thought:
“Just imagine Serbia having Veto rights in the EU – they will never allow this.”
Please, put some more visible quotation marks, to see what is authors words and what is excerpt from hostile papers.
The whole thing is not an isolated “Incident”.
Protests (Soros & CIA- backed) going on in Hungary, Serbia & Macedonia simultaneously. For Coincidence, it’s the so- called Western Balkans Route for “Refugees” (Terrorists & Illegal Econimic Migrants).
US Plan is to flood Europe with illegal migrants & terrorists to create Chaos, before launching US/ NATO attack on Russia.
“These people have the belief that they are actually doing this themselves. This belief must be preserved at any price.”
What is missing from this article is an analysis of what Serbs say for themselves?
I get the feeling Serbs are in both camps, heart with Russia and ahem – head in the EU, with credit cards at the ready. Perhaps actor John McCain is helping create the impression they can have it both ways, or did he state an objection to the aquisition of Russian weapons?
Refer to the quote above. Are Serbs themselves in any way relevant or is it out of their hands?
Of course we are in both camps. It is actually a natural and normal condition:
We share with Russia cultural and religious ties, AND we are, by way of geography, a landlocked state surrounded by the EU, which means we will inevitably have economic trade with our neighbour, the EU.
US Ambassador Micheal Kirby once arrogantly called us “schizophrenic”. He doesn’t get it. To the foot soldiers of the empire (EU/US) it’s always black OR white.. grasping the subtle and dual nature of things is beyond them.
Personally, as Serb as well, I don’t agree that we are in both camps, it’s only my opinion, but I am of the view that we are most definitely not in both camps. What the treasonous government does is one thing, but the people are staunchly pro-Russian in the vast majority, & as for identity, it has nothing whatsoever in common with either Nordic north-west Europe or latin south-west Europe. The similarities that do exist are those that can be said for most cultures, but generally we are very distinct & firmly rooted in East Europe with a capital ‘E’. Serbs have become very Westernized in the urban centers, but again this is to do with cultural imperialism & conditioning than the authentic indigenous culture. As for Serbia’s geostrategic significance, well, it is one of the most strategic locations in the entire world, smack in the middle of major east-west lines of communication & transport, a staging platform for interventions in all directions, & as the West sees it, part of the extended Middle East, the ‘near East’ they once called it.
How do you fight tyranny? Either peacefully or violently. We saw a lot of violence in the past years and even centuries. So we would like to try to skip violence as an option if we could help it. But when you are not given an option to change things like corruption,nepotism,disregard for the will of the people,… with any legal means you are left only with violence.
That was and still is our situation. I was happy as a little kid when unions of police and military joined the protests early on. That meant no blood on the streets because from that moment there was an understanding that we are one. That also meant that any kind of provocation would be harder to pull. One giant step forward.
Are there on the protests those who work for Soros? Probably. Are all those people on the streets for him? No. Is there a struggle to control the protests? Yes. Who will succeed in their attempts? It remain to be seen. Graham Phillips is in Belgrade and is covering the protests. Take a look at the yellow duck.
Time work against Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s current PM and now President. Protests are not going away and he just got marching orders from McCain. Police and military joined the protests, they were in fact protesting for many months now. Even the nature is against him, for he cannot count on autumn and winter to disperse the protests with rain and cold. His dilemma is how will these protests end? He made a mistake of taking 30 pieces of silver and now he sees that he will be discarded. Concentration of power will only speed thing up, for he cannot blame anyone else for the situation. He hold all the reins of power.
What is the real question here is what will happen after him and how much damage will he make in the meantime? Who will take the reins of power after him? There is not one option that is strong enough to do it alone. So, a coalition will be formed and in that fact lies the danger of continuation of present policies which are harmful for the country and all its citizens. For make no mistake, many if not all, are infiltrated with people who only want their 30 pieces of silver, that was their only cause for going into politics. All they need is payment and they will do damage to the cause.
Excuse me for painting a bleak picture with just traces of light but that is our current situation. But there is a silver lining to it. We are descending into a situation during 90’s. Those times are still in living memory and they were bad. The harder they push toward that state the harder the resistance will be. Even those zombified with reality shows and fake real talk shows that discuss current problems just to laugh them away are starting to see that thing look like they were in the 90’s.
Anger and dissatisfaction is real. The Empire need it to be misdirected so that they can continue with their colonial policies. What we need is a unifying cry that will prevent it from happening. That is the reason why we hear all that Soros talk. And here we see our real enemy. Divisiveness. Instead of putting our differences in front we should put what binds us together and put differences in the back. That is what the Empire fears most in their vassals-unity.
What we need is Russian army and airforce in Serbia. Anything less than that and we are toast. With them we may have a chance to recover and rebuild.
you are absolutely right. Anything else is jus bla, bla…
No more room for political manouvers. Mr. Vucic would like to sit on both chairs…we’ll see whoi is going to be new PM of Serbia. This will tell us a lot.
However, lot’s of Serbs know what elders from Serbian Orthodox Church had said…NATO (North Atlantic Terrorist Organization) will attack us again…it’s all said.
So, again…yes Marko is right. Otherwise…God help us.
Try to take a look at Serbia from a Russian perspective. They bled freeing Yugoslavia in WWII, they lost the Empire during WWI and us Serbs bear some responsibility for that. Yes, they helped us whenever they could and they will again. But for Russian troops to come here we need to take our country into our own hands and sign international treaties with them. We need to show that we care, else we are a liability. I understand and respect that stance.
If we,the people that live in Serbia, are not willing to fight for our country then why would they? They have the moral high ground and they should keep it for in the coming times that would be the most valuable commodity available. That said they should not play the games like the west do. Coups, covert support and like are not the way to treat a brotherly nation, it is a way to treat a vassal. Veto against injustice is another matter, humanitarian aid, help during natural or man made disasters,… are the way to go.
For the time being Russia lost Montenegro as a country but it has not lost people there. It might even lose Serbia as a country although i do not wish to live in times like that, it might happen, but it will never lose us Serbs. When the next European war comes it will be shown. All those quislings that are in power will be swept away. Yes, we would be starting from a terrible position. Not being ready for the conflict that will almost surely come soon at our doorstep. But it will be our own fault not Russian.
What would you rather see, Russia as a victor or a loser? Coming here while we are undecided-at a state level at which they operate and according to international law which they uphold, would weaken them ahead of this conflict. It might cost them a victory and with it the whole world will lose. We almost totally disbanded our army and police. With what we would help them if they were here and war brakes out? Imagine Russia in Syria without Syrian troops. Would you send our soldiers into such a situation? They already have one such situation-Kaliningrad. But that is their own land.
We should arm ourselves with faith and patience. Russia had shown us that it is possible to rise up. Let us show them that we can too. We did it before and we will do it again. It is hard to do it, but we are not alone. It is not easy for Russia too, to see us in this state but they stand against the “civilized world” now just as we were during the 90’s. Remember how hard that was for us then? We only had us to lose, they stand to lose the world. Let them create the battlefield where they have the most chances for success and try to help them as best we can by finding unity amongst us and by rebuilding our country, against all odds.
Your last sentence was brilliant,”Let them create the battlefield where they have the most chances for success and try to help them as best we can by finding unity amongst us and by rebuilding our country, against all odds.”
Only somebody that went through real war would say something like that. It shook me but also gives me hope, gives me a path to true resistance.
We shall be victorious over the empire, eventually…
Peace and friendship to all.