By Godfree Roberts – selected from his extensive weekly newsletter : Here Comes China
Ten Predictions for 2021
- GDP expands 10%. Western experts predict GDP will expand by 8% and, since they are always 25% low, expect 10%–a $2.4 trillion addition to the economy and the fastest growth ever. Bonus Predictions: Wages rise 12%, the EU signs the Investment Agreement, the EEU merges with the RCEP.
- Most Fortune 500 companies are Chinese. More than 140 Chinese companies and fewer than 120 US companies will make the Fortune list. 80% of the Chinese companies will be State Owned Enterprises.
- Five new billionaires created weekly, following four a week in 2020. .
- Extreme poverty, homelessness vanish. There will be more drug addicts, suicides and executions, more homeless, poor, hungry and imprisoned people in America than in China by this time next year. 99% of the bottom half of Chinese society will own a home and have an income, plenty of food and clothes, safe streets, health insurance, a pension, and old age care.
- Gini gap narrows. Inequality has been Xi’s pet project since 2012 and will become a priority through 2035. The gap is already narrower than Europe’s: Luxembourgeois are 50 times richer than Moldavans, while Beijingers are 5-6 times richer than folks in Gansu, and Gansu is richer than Armenia, Ukraine and Moldova.
- Urban life revolutionized. China has constructed the equivalent of San Francisco’s entire housing stock every month since 1950 and Xiong’An New Area, south of Beijing, embodies everything they have learned. Most of it will be woods and wetlands, the loudest sound will birds twittering, and it will be fully automated, with infrastructure underground. Increased productivity will repay its capital cost in 30 years.
- The first exascale computer. Top supercomputers nowsolve problems at the petascale—a quadrillion calculations/second. Exascale computers, at a quintillion calculations/second, will more realistically simulate the processes involved in precision medicine, regional climate, additive manufacturing, the physics in materials discovery and design, the fundamental forces of the universe, and more.
- Another quantum surprise to match its recent boson sampling achievement. China outspends the US 4:1 in R&D and its Taoist worldview accommodates quantum physics’ ‘both-and’ paradigm better than the Western ‘either-or’ tradition.
- Chinese outlive Americans. US deaths will rise 15% 3.2 million and life expectancy will fall by three years. China’s life expectancy was on track to match America’s by 2028, but thanks to Healthy China 2030, it may maintain its 2021 lead permanently.
- Chinese vaccines protect the world. Sixty percent of the world’s people will be protected by Chinese vaccines (and The WHO will reveal India as the source of the Covid-19 virus.
This represents but a fraction of what is included in the Here Comes China newsletter. If you want to learn about the Chinese world, get Godfree’s newsletter here
Cover Photograph : Zhou Chengyu, a 24-year-old from Guizhou province (above) is China’s youngest ever space commander. She’s in charge of the rocket connector system, a “pivotal role.” The Chang’e 5 mission marked China’s third successful Moon-landing in seven years. Read full article →