By Nightvision for the Saker Blog
Large amount of significant updates today.
Let’s start with the most pressing – it looks like our reporting on the Transnistria RUMINT last time were accurate, the escalations there are now getting worse. More and more info pours out from every direction that suggests an increasingly grave situation.
Poland and Ukraine both have now announced military ‘exercises’ that will conveniently move equipment towards the east of the country:
⚡️The Ministry of Defense of Poland announced that in connection with the “military exercises” from May 1 until the end of the month there will be heavy movement of columns with equipment in the north, east of the country
“Ukrainian media are reporting that a military exercise has been announced in Kotovsk (AKA Podilsk) from today to the 30th, ~20km from the Transnistrian border.”
While Transnistria reportedly announced mobilization: https://balkaninsight.com/2022/04/28/moldovas-breakaway-transnistria-orders-general-mobilisation/
And Bulgaria has warned its citizens to leave the country:
“Given the deteriorating situation in the Republic of Moldova and around it, we call on our compatriots to refrain from any trips to the country. We invite Bulgarian citizens who are on the territory of the Republic of Moldova to take measures to leave the country on currently available vehicles .”
The Bulgarian Foreign Ministry asks its citizens to leave the country. The appeal is posted on the official website of the department.”
And many citizens in Transnistria were said to be fleeing already as snarled traffic was seen at border checkpoints.
A video of the likely Ukrainian terror attack on Tiraspol’s Ministry building was released, showing several masked gunmen armed with RPG’s shooting the building:
Arestovich has outright called for Moldova to take Transnistria which they “officially” declined, for now: https://www.rt.com/russia/554640-moldova-transnistria-kiev-offer/
Meanwhile the MI6 claims it is Russia that is preparing a mass assault there:
“🔥 Mi-6 sent intelligence to the Office of the President of Ukraine and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that Russia is preparing a landing in Transnistria if an escalation begins, and is also activated on the southern front. Additional forces of the Russian army are being transferred to Crimea, and the Black Sea Fleet is preparing an operation in Bessarabia. British intelligence again recommended Zelensky to refrain from plans to attack the PMR until the Armed Forces of Ukraine are strengthened with new weapons.”
And ex-Prime Minister of Moldova issued the following statement:
“If the Russians manage to get to Tiraspol, it will be the end of Moldova,” ex-Prime Minister of Moldova Iurie Leanca.
“If Bucharest and Chisinau do not implement certain scenarios. Our only scenario is unire (the name of the movement for the unification of Romania and Moldova). When Romania takes this step together with Chisinau, we immediately fall under the security umbrella of NATO and the European Union.”
In the meantime, Washington continues to escalate its involvement, offering even more intelligence assets to Kiev: https://www.rt.com/news/554643-us-intelligence-sharing-ukraine-russia/
And Biden now seeks a gargantuan $33 billion for Ukraine: https://www.rt.com/russia/554685-biden-ukraine-aid/
Keep in mind, this is 5 times larger than Ukraine’s entire annual military budget of $6 billion.
WarGonzo reports that Moldova is holding secret consultations with NATO on a combined action to retake Transnistria:
https://zen.yandex.ru/media/wargonzoya/specoperaciia-nato-pod-nazvaniem-krovavaia-maiia-626abccc35423263458fed48 (you can autotranslate the article)
“So, our high-ranking insiders in Chisinau, who are really concerned about the security of ordinary people, report that the head of Moldova, Maia Sandu, is holding closed meetings with parliamentarians in order to convince them to publicly advocate for Moldova’s participation in hostilities against the PMR and the Russian military contingent deployed there. .
Naturally, Sandu does this not out of a personal militaristic nature, but on the orders of his immediate supervisors – German citizen Hans Martin Sieg and American political strategist Jason Smart, who act on instructions and direct instructions from NATO generals who cut up the corresponding tasks.
In the scenarios proposed by the curators, the Moldovan military themselves will allegedly participate nominally, direct participation in hostilities and their deployment, as well as further military planning, will fall on the shoulders of the Romanian Armed Forces. Thus, the NATO bloc is working out another scheme based on the “proxy” principle – the Romanians are fighting, but under the flag of Moldova. In general, according to the classics.
The reconnaissance has already been carried out, heavy weapons and manpower are being pulled together, but there is a problem – Sandu’s loyal associates, realizing the possible targeted consequences for their own persons, do not want to share with her the title of “bloody Maya” and the fate of the comedian Zelensky’s team, which, as we all understand, long ago decided.”
Large Romanian military convoys spotted heading towards the eastern border:
And now, the Russian head of SVR intelligence agency has stated:
Sputnik/RT both reporting it:
And at the same time, it’s being reported that:
“Washington has set up an intelligence center in Lvov where the Americans work with General Staff officers to get quick information from reconnaissance planes, UAVs and satellites that collect data around and over #Ukraine in space. The staff is about 50 people only from the USA. It is located in one of the communication buildings in Lviv.”
Washington has set up an intelligence center in Lvov where the Americans work with General Staff officers to get quick information from reconnaissance planes, UAVs and satellites that collect data around and over Ukraine in space.
Keep in mind, none of this should come as a surprise as it was weeks ago already that Poland was openly requesting a NATO mission to Ukraine: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-propose-ukraine-peacekeeping-mission-nato-summit-says-pm-2022-03-18/
But now it seems things are escalating and they may take matters into their own hands. Personally, I don’t see much problem with it, why shouldn’t they take the Western part of Ukraine? Russia certainly doesn’t want it and it could be a good ‘compromise’ if something is worked out on the back end. Russia only wants Odessa and in fact would prefer not to have to expend massive manpower and lives lost to conquer the western pale of Ukraine. Of course this is an oversimplification and we don’t know what disaster could turn out from these moves, or what Poland/NATO’s ultimate aims might actually be.
On that note Britain has announced the first official British mercenary killed in Ukraine
“London confirms the death of at least one British subject in Ukraine. Another one went missing. It is known that the killed militant’s name was Scott Sibley. According to rumors, he was a retired British military man who, either out of boredom or under a contract, decided to go on a “Russian safari”. Safari didn’t work.”
While another group of British mercenaries seen somewhere in Ukraine:
Two American mercenaries were also badly wounded in Orekhovo, one seemingly blinded for life by Russian artillery. You can read the description in the video below for more details:
Now the most important thing to understand is that all of these escalations are happening for one reason only, and that is: Russia is completely annihilating the Ukrainian armed forces in the Donbass. It is going even more horrifically for the AFU than many imagined. Here are some new videos just from the past day or two alone showing not only possibly hundreds of losses in KIA but new mass surrenders as well:
Today’s mass surrender:
Huge losses (18+): https://www.bitchute.com/video/RFkLPDeIXdfp/
These are unsustainable losses – the AFU is getting crushed and obliterated and the long awaited heavier Russian offensive has not even started yet. It’s getting so bad that even the most infamous pro-western sources are becoming extremely worried:
Jihad Julian is chief amongst them:
Here’s the vile Anders Aslund: https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1519678415456149506
“The War: Ukraine has experienced setback in the past few days. A senior Ukrainian official announced yesterday that Russian troops had taken part of the Kharkiv region. Yesterday, Russia announced that it has captured the entire Kherson region. No Ukrainian advances. Not good.”
And another: “Russia is increasing the pace of offensive in Ukraine in all directions, – Speaker of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Oleksandr Motuzyanyk. Apparently, even the Armed Forces of Ukraine are tired of the lulling lies of Arestovich.”
Not only have Russian advances been smashing Ukrainian defenses, but Russian strikes have continued their upswing on many objects of infrastructure:
“According to reliable information received in the south-west of Kharkov, the headquarters of the TRO/Azov was destroyed. There are dead and wounded.”
There are photos from the destroyed HQ, it looks like there could be a lot of dead.
More critical railway junctures west of Kiev were hit.
Ukraine of course continues its escalations into the asymmetric / terror warfare, hitting various sites on Russian territory. There’s still no certainty of how they’re doing it apart from clues like the fact that several ‘saboteurs’ were arrested in Russia by the FSB yesterday, who were working for Ukrainian SBU. One was in Crimea, had explosives and was planning on bombing a shopping mall in Simferopol.
Many in Russia understandably are feeling fed up, and some believe Russia may eventually designate Ukraine as a terrorist state, which could open pathways for eventual formal declaration of war and mobilization, if need be.
Russia is likely to formally recognize Ukraine as a terrorist state The assassination attempts on Russian state media figures, which the FSB links to Ukraine’s SBU, and the attacks in Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region are the pretexts for this move.
Margarita Semonyan, head of RT/Sputnik, added her voice to the mix. Western critics and some pro-Russian ‘maximalists’ believe she’s slowly softening the Russian public for the eventual acceptance of nuclear use:
“Explosions and air defense sirens in Belgorod. The Anglo-Saxons publicly offer Ukraine to transfer hostilities to the territory of Russia. And supply it with the means to implement this plan. What choice are you giving us, idiots? Complete destruction of the remaining Ukraine? Nuclear strike?”
And other prominent Russian media figures:
Meanwhile, from the MI6 in UK:
“🇬🇧🇺🇦🔥 Mi-6 have passed intelligence to the Office of the President of Ukraine and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that Russia is preparing strikes against decision-making centers in Ukraine. It is recommended not to use the command posts of the Ministry of Defense, the coordinates of which are known to the Russian special services.”
As of this writing, missiles have hit Kiev but so far it appears to have targeted the Artyom military factory and airfields in the vicinity, not decision centers, but we’ll see. The leadership is likely not worried anyway, there are reports that:
“Zelensky’s wife and children have already received British citizenship. Come on, he himself received it, although this should be contrary to the constitution of Ukraine. But the bloody clown’s parents refused allegiance. Well, at least someone in this family has a conscience.
Also, by the decision of the British government, citizenship was granted to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak and his family members, as well as Zelensky’s adviser Mikhail Podolyak and his family members. A number of employees of the General Staff of Ukraine and the SBU are in the process of receiving.
The Ukrainian elites have prepared an alternate airfield for themselves, but the majority of Ukrainians will be left with a nose.”
The implication is that all the top Ukrainian elite are already receiving British citizenships and are ready to work from abroad in their new home soon.
One of the new Polish Warmate suicide drones has already been shot down by Russia
Large amounts of Western weapons shipments destroyed:
And numerous new TB2’s from Turkey’s fresh batch have already been shot down:
(another 3rd one)
There’s photos of at least 3 separate Bayraktar TB2’s shot down since yesterday online. Two of them I believe were on or near the Russian border towards Kursk.
Now as for the offensives that are generating these massive casualties posted above. Russian troops are said to be storming Lyman on the northern front while having captured several small towns NW of there, like Kymky and Oleksandrivka. There are even some reports that advance scout units have already reached the outskirts of Slavyansk through the forest, although that likely wouldn’t mean much as they are not quite ready to start assaulting yet. However residents of Slavyansk already hear heavy bombardments and blasts in the distance as the Russian advance approaches.
On the Izyum axis Russia was said to have fully cleared Zavody and is now assaulting the actual stronghold town of Velyka Komyshuvakha, while on the southern end they are still said to be pushing on Pashkove, past Kurul’ka.
Here’s a decent map: https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1519611022813720576
The AFU is already making plans for retreat in Slavyansk as there is footage of the bridge here being heavily mined and ready to blow.
Here’s the video of heavily mined bridge: https://twitter.com/Farnakyboy/status/1519762715119599616
One report: “🔥 Many residents of Slavyansk confirm the information that the Armed Forces of Ukraine mined Kupechesky Bridge in the city. Ukrainian “defenders” are preparing to surrender Slavyansk according to the scenario of Mariupol.”
As can be seen it leads to the city from the eastern end and appears to anticipate falling back and abandoning the eastern entrance.
There’s progress in Popasna and elsewhere as well but will save it for next time.
For now will turn to the final and other most important sector of Mariupol as there’ve been some big updates.
Firstly, both 2nd in Command of Azov Kalina, and 36th Brigade commander Volyna have released new videos absolutely pleading for western help.
Kalina’s message https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1519619631719358466
Volyna: https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1519309276568866817 with translation of his message:
In short, he begs for a massive WW2 Dunkirk style airlift to save Azov. Unfortunately Russia has reportedly continued bombing them https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1519645150603055104
and things have gotten really desperate.
The entire northern part (cement factory, etc) appears to be under Russian control now:
Last time we noted how various forces were working to pinpoint the secret Azov lairs and hideouts. Now they’ve managed to finally do it.
“We made a complete diagram of the Azovstal bunkers, and their connections to each other. Above is the number of the defensive structure, below are the exact coordinates.
Green – transitions between protective structures (laying from 18 to 45 meters) The main headquarters of Azov is located in protective structure No. 18182, a bomb shelter for the central chemical laboratory of the plant, for 300 people. The civilians are partly located in object No. 18207 and 18170.”
This report claims negotiators have arrived:
#AZOVSTAL—#Ukraine|ian (!) negotiators have arrived in #Bezymennoye settlement near #Mariupol in an effort to convince #Azov (#Ukrainian #NationalGuard regiment) to release civilians being held by them at Azovstal. Looks like Azov is getting on everyone’s nerves now. #UkraineWar
It was reported last time how there’s friction between Azov and Kiev leadership. They requested to be sent to a ‘third country’ of preferably Turkey, and I mentioned how in the past Kiev has even bombed the Azov regiment about a month ago.
Alexander Sladkov said 2 days ago that Azov only had 9 days of food left. In his new report it was said, “The militants used the building of the sanitary and epidemiological station. 3rd floor completed.
DEFENSE FEATURES OF “AZOVSTAL”. THEY HAVE A LOT OF WATER, INSTEAD OF STOVES THEY USE BARREL WITH ANTISEPTIC, THEY DO NOT GIVE SMOKE.
Ours, moving forward, found a huge warehouse of water at the plant. The militants did not even begin to evacuate him – they have a sea of \u200b\u200bwater. They say there is 9 days of food left.”
And according to Maxim Fomkin aka Vladlen Tatarsky, a prominent DPR soldier/blogger, the Azovstal will be taken by 4/30.
Here’s Sladkov’s report showing entire northern section of Azovstal being cleared: https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1519631657799725056
In short, they appear to be only a few buildings away from where the Azov leadership are holed up so things are set to come to a head in some manner soon.
Russia in the meantime continues to move troops out as one western report stated:
“NEW: Russia is moving “significant” numbers of troops out of Ukraine’s besieged city of Mariupol to the north and northwest: senior U.S. defense official Russia is still hitting Mariupol with airstrikes. had about a dozen battalion tactical groups in the city.”
Lastly, here’s one of the many advanced things aiding Russian forces in the final capture of Azovstal:
A Russian Fara-VR tactical battlefield radar system that detects both troops and vehicles, through walls at distance, and can relay that information to tankers and troop units for immediate focus fire destruction of the enemies. It’s a very impressive piece of kit that was used by Spetsnaz in Syria but hasn’t gotten such closeup attention until now.