For the Saker Blog by Saker Staff
This is an open thread on the entire Donbas Arc where the ‘grind’ is now paying off and the Russians are running and counting coup, working like a well-orchestrated orchestra. (Unforgivable hyperbole in writing, but it is quite a thing to watch!).
Over to the commentators to give us the details.
Keep eyes on for confirmation: UNCONFIRMED but oh boy this would be juicy if confirmed. How about those Poles? From Intel Slava:
Against the background of information about the arrival of units in Pavlograd from the territory of Poland, a missile attack was launched on a military facility in the city.
Which object was hit is still unknown. It is likely that the target was precisely the place of concentration of those same armed groups that arrived from Poland.
Pavlograd is the most important transport hub for supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbass.
Roads run from it to Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo and Marinka, as well as towards the Kramatorsk-Slavic agglomeration. The railway goes towards Avdiivka.
For now, Readovka’s report and map.
Today from Avdiivka to Estuary Russian Armed Forces and allied forces storm Estuary. Most of the city has been liberated and serious military operations are underway. The entire Donbass arc is in motion. Ukrainian sources report the withdrawal of troops from Severodonetsk. The main supply routes are under the fire control of the Allied Artillery.
Kharkiv Front. Today, fighting continued in the area of Liptsov, Ternovoye and Rubezhnoye.
Izumo-Luhansk front. In the morning, it was reported that a bridge across the Lugan River was blown up near Svitlodar, then information appeared about the breakthrough of the Allied forces in this direction. Later it became known about the beginning of the assault on Krasny Liman, and about the capture of almost half of the city by the Allied forces.
Russian aviation and artillery are also working in the area of Soledar and Bakhmut (Artemivsk). From the Popasnyansky front, they reported the end of the battles for Toshkovka (in favor of the Allied forces) and successes in the Zolotoe area. The Russian Armed Forces and allied forces storm Zolotoe Positions are occupied at the entrance to the city The 6th Regiment of the People’s Militia of the LPR occupied two streets in Kamyshevakh. Access to the borders of the LPR and DPR from Troitsky was also made.
This morning, the Russian Aerospace Forces launched a missile attack on the railway infrastructure in Korosten, Zhytomyr region. Powerful explosions thundered in Kharkiv and Pavlograd-military facilities were destroyed.
Repulsed provocations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on our territories. A Ukrainian drone was shot down in the Rostov region. Air defense systems were destroyed APU made an unsuccessful attempt of provocation in the Kursk regionAir defense systems destroyed all air targets in the Kursk region. Anti-aircraft missiles flew into the sky over the Belgorod region in the evening.
What is “Estuary”? Is it a place name that was accidentally “translated”?
Seems like it. Russian text says Лиман, so it looks like it’s this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyman,_Ukraine
City name is “Krasny Lyman” = Red Estuary.
Yes. Krasnyi Liman.
BM “What is “Estuary”? Is it a place name that was accidentally “translated”?”
An estuary is a large pooling of water akin to a lake, usually at the foot of a river or in a location where sea water enters the land base to flow into a river, or rivers.
@BM Estuary is where 500+ Ukie forces surrendered without a fight, May 23….
Click on that link for short videos.
It appears the reference for Sukhyi Estuary also known as Sukhyi Liman was abbreviated to ‘Estuary’ (perhaps a translation error) to describe the advances made by Russian Armed Forces into southwestern Ukraine.
Sukhyi (Suchoj) means: “Dry”.
“Liman” is a word of Turkish origin I think. In Serbia we use it as well for river forks where two or more tributaries flow into or bigger river, or converge to form a bigger single river, or a full blown estuary even when they flow into the sea.
You are right, liman is a turkish word meaning Harbour, it might indeed have taken other meanings elswhere
Interesting, in Greek Limani means port as well.
It is of greek origin, since the coast of Asia Minor is full of ports/harbours, with the Ottomans using them from Byzantine times and learning the name. Till then they lived in Anatolia, far from the seacoast.
It is the very ancient word ”λιμήν, gen.λιμένος, modern greek λιμάνι” (limin, limenos, limani, the pronunciation of ”li” like in ”li-ttle” and of ”me” like in ”me-n”.
But are you sure that this is the case ? Because the town is far inland, except if there is a river nearby. The sounds may be the same, but the meanings could be entirely different. If it is really an estuary, we call it ”delta”, because it is like the greek D, the Δ.
Article about Liman landforms – a lagoonal estuary – from Wikipedia
”English borrows the word from Russian лима́н (Russian pronunciation: [lʲɪˈman]), taken from the Turkish liman spread by Turks when they occupied the western and northern shore of the Black Sea.
Liman originated in the Medieval Greek λιμένας (meaning bay or port). The term large natural harbour is frequently synonymous.” From the above link to wikipedia.
I wonder what else we are going to learn through the ”little sakers’ ” cooperation !
Auto translate has a lot to answer for
Liman means estuary
Izyum means raisins ( I do not know why this town was called thus – happy to be enlightened)
Izium (Ukrainian: Ізюм, lit. ’Raisin’, pronounced [iˈzʲum];
In 1681 a Russian fortress was built.
Could it be thus called, because at that time it was the site, where they spread and dried grapes to turn them into raisins ?
(Si Tou Timou Tumou Tou = “man lives to educate others” )
It is the ”callsign” of a friend from above. By this way man gets educated by others, too.
I was keeping a list of the English towns liberated by mainly the LPR with some help from the DPR and Russia: They included Happiness, Dove, Wide, Warm, Lower Warm, Top Warm, Dam, Raspberry, Upper Alder, Reed, Captain’s, Marriage, Flint, Average, Scars, Linden, Green Valley, Mallard, Industrial, Curly, Sandy, Wheat, Bottom, Quiet, Fire, Frontier, and Raisins.
Thank you! I wish I could speak and read Russian. The videos are patently useless without hearing what is going on or reading an account of it. I have noticed that staff says to provide machine translations, but have yet to find one that will translate what is on the Russian sites.
I do not use telegram because it is apparently cellphone based and I am a desktop user.
I always use a laptop and am able to watch telegram on it.
I don’t have a cell phone but I bookmark various Telegram channels and read them that way. There is a Telegram app for desktop but you need a cell phone number to access it.
Hope that is of help :)
Thanks for the list of English names! The village with the name New York always makes me chuckle.
Are any of the the people in Average above average?
And I’m delighted to say I found New York on the inset map.
Half of them.
When I was a kid, “les russes” as we call the HC CSKA Moscow hockey team inspired respect and admiration for the quality of their team play (and not only for the quality of each athlete). Les Canadiens had the advantage of playing at home and it was a tie… Bravo les Russes!
Many people thought that was the greatest game of club hockey ever played.
If we begin to see a general advance by allied forces across the Donbass front, it could signal that Ukrainian forces are attempting to withdraw(retreat).
This would be a risky move by the Ukrainians.
A withdrawal is a military maneuver that requires planning, reliable communications, coordination and professional discipline. A textbook example of a well executed withdrawal was performed by the Russian Army at the end of Phase I.
Failure to correctly execute a withdrawal can result in a general rout and even the effective destruction of the withdrawing force.
This will be interesting to observe.
There is a huge advance all along the front, primary and secondary defences have been breached. Orcs in full retreat or surrender in many places. Most retreat routes are under RF fire control or covered by air. Orderly retreats should have happened over the past week. Too little, too late, and if by retreat they mass somewhere……as Andrei said, big fat target. Heavy armour can’t drive itself to battle, needs to brought in and mustered somewhere, there is nowhere to muster in the Ukraine that is safe from RF stand of munitions.
So a possible replay of Operation Bagration. I guess we’ll soon be hearing about the Kiev’s brilliant ‘evacuation’ of its Donbass Army.
Bravely advancing westward after expertly driving the Russians back in every direction.
Now our brave fighters are leaving Donbass after a successful defense to be redeployed westward as that’s where US intelligence believes Russia will attack next.
“A withdrawal is a military maneuver that requires planning, reliable communications, coordination and professional discipline. A textbook example of a well executed withdrawal was performed by the Russian Army at the end of Phase I.”
Or the Ukrainians could emulate the American retreat from Kabul in Afghanistan in the summer of last year.
That was a truly a textbook model of professional ….
Can we expect to see images of Ukrainians dangling from US helicopters or transport planes in the very near future?
Yes, Afghanistan redux. What the UAF soldiers will do is pile into anything that rolls and leave anything that doesn’t behind. That is the fate of all the Western weapons deliveries that are not destroyed. Will there be evacuation flights a la Saigon/Kabul? Dunno, anything that moves in Ukraine air space does so only with Russia’s permission.
I perversely state, there is no need to follow the information form eastern Ukraine to come to the conclusion Ukies are retreating. It’s enough to hear voices from Davos now asking towards diplomatic solutions.
Only way they will be able to withdraw is by an “evacuation” organised by Kiev.
I am starting to like these sitreps because they are daily, please keep them up that way, it is my first read.
You have no choice just fight till death no surrender.
Yet another sign of impending Ukrainian victory, lol.
Hopefully this government stand a tribunal afterwards, getting their own message nemesis.
If those Ukrainian soldiers came to their senses and see who and what they are fighting for they would mutiny.
My understanding of the ground forces engaged is:
Anyone have more solid data ? It’s confusing because generally people shorthand the 3 Allies as ‚Russians‘
I think that the RF number may be somewhat high, there are according to what I´ve been able to discern around 100+ RF BTG´s there(officially ca 600 soldiers) but most units in any army are never 100%, you have soldiers on training, leave for personal reasons, sick leave et cetera(in reality I´d *guess* on 400-500 for 100×400-500=40-50 thousand but that is *my* guesstimate) so it is depending on the number of support troops they put forward.
Not a hard number but maybe a ballpark but if we have a Russian brother with knowledge that would school us I´d be thankful.
I seriously doubt that the LPR and DPR have that many troops in total, let alone engaged.
There’s a direct correlation between the number of troops a force which largely relies on conscripts has on active duty, and the number it can effectively field after mobilization of reserves. You can roughly double in size when it comes to fielding additional formations (both in combat and support roles). You can maybe stretch that to two and a half times the active size, if you’re willing to trade off the average quality of your formations.
Anything above that is only useful as a general replacement pool, and only after the reservists in question have received sufficient refresher training. Even then, if you send too many of them to a single formation as replacements, its overall quality will drop considerably. Formations can ‘carry’ only a limited number of these general replacement men without significantly compromising the combat capabilities of the formation as a whole.
Mobilized reservists are only useful if they know what they’re doing. A conscript who has ended his service will typically retain sufficient skills for about 18 months, and that assumes periodical refresher call ups during that time (one weekend every two or three months, for example). After that time, even with those refreshers, their skill level will drop below the minimum level required for actual operations. (For professional soldiers, who typically serve longer before leaving the army, it can stretch to about 24 months max).
Those who have served between 18 and 36 months ago can usually reacquire enough skills for active duty within a relative short time of training, but that will still take about 4 weeks, (if you want them to meet the normal minimum requirements). It will take even longer if you want to form them into their own formations, instead of adding them to the strength of existing ones.
The number of soldiers who have been dismissed from duty no longer than 18 months ago, and how many were dismissed between 18 and 36 months ago, at any given moment, is (obviously) determined by the size of your active army.
Every active army is different, but as a general rule of thumb, two to two and a half times the size of the active army’s size is a good rule of thumb to use.
That would that the DPR can effectively deploy between 40.000 and 50.000 men, and the LPR between 30.000 and 37.500 men.
Reports from the DPR are indeed indicating that they are seriously struggling with handling the limited mobilization they have conducted so far, which to me says they are trying to absorb more of them than their army can handle. The LPR doesn’t seem to have to have those problems, but it also seems they may have conducted a more limited mobilization.
Unfortunately, i don’t have concrete mobilization numbers on either the LPR or DPR.
…, That would that the DPR can effectively deploy between 40.000 and 50.000 men, and the LPR between 30.000 and 37.500 men.….
1)Great comment – I did see somewhere that the DPR had fully mobilized any and all reserves with a ground force of 60,000
2) agreed we are definitely not considering quality just quantity
3) less than 80,000 RF ground forces ????? That can’t be right ….or is it ?
“3) less than 80,000 RF ground forces ????? That can’t be right ….or is it ?”
I’ve seen so many numbers thrown around about how many RF troops are either deployed into the Ukraine or part of the forces directly supporting them (like navy and air force personnel), that I wouldn’t dare put a concrete number of it myself and state it as any kind of definite number.
What I can do is look at the kind of operations they have been conducting since the start of phase II and, maybe more importantly, what they haven’t been doing, and make assumptions on the force levels required to perform those operations (and nothing else). There are so many variables involved though, that it would be very rough guesstimates.
Having said that, I believe that they could be doing what they have been with a ground force component of around 100.000 men, and perhaps indeed with as few as 80.000, although that assumes very low troop counts along the Kherson and Zhaporiye fronts. More likely seems a total of around 120.000, as that assumes sufficient operational reserves to exploit local successes.
Another aspect of the size of LPR and DPR forces are the number of ‘foreign’ volunteers that have joined them. There are and Ossetian and an Abkhazian battalion fighting as part of the DPR forces, for example, and the O-brigade (made up of highly skilled Russian volunteers) and Wagner group are operating with the LPR forces.
Then there are the volunteers who are being cycled through Grozny (they come from all over the Russian Federation though), and who are sent to reinforce the Donbass republics. And finally, there are people who have come from other parts of the world, individually or in small groups to help them out.
I don’t have a clue as to how many that are in total if we add all these up, I suspect somewhere between 5000 and 7000. But it could be a lot more.
Thank you – the challenge is so many times I see reports that simply lump together all allied forces as ‘Russians’.
Agreed also, it’s also difficult to get a solid handle on the size of ground forces involved because it’s very rare for a journalist to differentiate between all forces versus ground forces.
Here is are my tentative conclusion based on everyone’s thoughts :
1) the DPR, LPR, and their foreign volunteers are more than 50% of the ground forces involved in fighting. (Maybe even 60%)
2) The RF ground forces involved in the Peacekeeping campaign are surprisingly small.
So…..from those 2 observations comes a host of strategic insights. Which needs to be mulled over for a day or so….
Well, we shouldn’t forget that the conflict in Ukraine itself (apart from the larger one between NATO and Russia that stretches well beyond its borders) is essentially a civil war. Russia is now actively aiding one side, while NATO and friends aid the other side. But it’s still basically a civil war that has been lingering on for a while, but which has yet to be resolved.
One thing Putin said early on, is that it is in principle up to the ‘Ukrainians’ (which arguably still included the Donbass republics) to sort this s**t out. Off course he used far more polite language and referred primarily to whatever political solution would come after the fighting was done. But that wasn’t all of it. The other point I took from it, was that Russia wasn’t going to do all the heavy lifting by herself. They fully expect the LPR and DPR not just to pull their weight, but to put in their best possible effort, especially in this phase, which is the liberation of their own territories.
And as far as I can tell, they have. So I can live with the view that the Donbass republics, with the help of volunteers, are currently responsible for somewhere around half the ground forces committed. To be honest, I’m impressed by them, especially when you see their (near) middle aged reservists on the front lines. It’s a world of difference between them and their counterparts on the other side of the trenches, in attitude, in morale, in conviction, in emotions and in how they see this conflict. There’s far less bitterness and revenge-like attitudes or hatred for the enemy than I had expected. Which says something (quite positive) about their societies.
Well, I’ll leave it up to you all to make up your minds what the behavior and attitudes of the different segments of the Ukrainian forces says about their society.
You forgot about the Chechens! And I do believe the Wagner Group is fighting alongside the RFA :)
Russia started the “special operation” with approximately 190.000 troops according to themselves (Russia has over 400.000 contract (IE, professional) soldiers, aiming for 500.000 by 2025). In addition (i assume it is in addition, i dont know for sure), there were 40.000’ish Donbass militia (Wikipedia lists them as having 44.000 men as of last year i think. It says includes both DPR and LPR forces), and then there are around 10.000 Chechens, and private outfits like the Wagner group.
Donetsk and Lugansk put together has a population of over 4 million, so if they mobilized for their freedom, they could probably field far more than 44.000 men (i would think anyway).
If i recall, Russia (i dont know if they used “Russia” collectively for all allied forces, or just the actual Russian troops) started the SMO with 126 BTG’s
Please give links to back up your figures. Some are incorrect. Mod.
Clearly the northern cauldron is closing and the Luhansk Oblast will be liberated. The main supply routes to the Ukrainian positions are under artillery fire, and thus any major Ukrainian supply or retreat prevented. They have coordinates on the road. The Popasna front advances. Next the roads will be cut. Roadblocks set up.
(To be confirmed.)
According to sources, the video was shot on the road between the cities of Bakhmut and Lisichansk.
Please use the Russian transliteration of Lugansk, not the Ukrainian transliteration of Luhansk. Г is G in Russian H in Ukrainian.
How to comment this:
“UK mulling option of escorting Ukraine grain vessels from ports in Black Sea, breaking Russian blockade”
Headline: UK WARSHIPS IN BLACK SEA SAY HELLO TO MR. KALIBR
An escort would probably require some sort of warship (whatever size). Difficult to get British-flagged ships past Istanbul at the moment.
Its more safe to make Polish truck drivers to collect it in Ukraine. Polish trucks, Polish drivers, and a little usury loan more :-D. Rule the waves.
The UK is blustering as usual.
At present Turkey has closed of the entrance to the Black sea for war ships.
It is the right/ obligation of turkey to do so according to the treaty of the Black sea, in times of war in the region.
So unless The UK intends to violate the treaty of the Black sea and get into confrontation with Turkey and Russia, there will only sail merchant ships in and out of the Black sea.
However merchant ships will have to pay a hefty insurance to do so, because Ukraine has let loose 420 sea mines blocking the harbor of Odessa, and these mines are now floating freely in the black sea.
The Turkish Navy has located and destroyed 3 of the mines so far.
One of the mines was found near the Bosphorus Strait
The Montreux Convention currently prevents UK navy from entering the `Black Sea.
Russia has subs in the `Black Sea; given the Johnson’s war-mongering against Russia, any UK navy ships which do enter the Black Sea may become accident prone.
Black sea is about 8m deep.
I doubt there are subs there.
Or am I confusing that with the sea of Azov.
From the mod – sourced via google
Black Sea – ave 2212m
Sea of Azov – 14m
Not too much use having grain ships in the Sea of Azov, unless they would be willing to sail into the Black Sea. You may indeed be a little confuseg, though a look at a decent map might help.
Yes, confusing it with sea of Azov, whose mean depth is 7m. Black Sea mean depth is 1253m.
I suppose it might have been called Black Sea from its dark blue colour through being so deep. The sea around the Greek island of Ithaca (where my father was born) is also deep, and Homer famously refers to a “wine dark” sea.
An other “”news” item: the Russians are shipping tractors and harvesters and grain out of ukraine on the same trains, that the heavy equipment arrived on…
I feel a deep, deep sadness for these people, that bought into this present construct of ukraine, they have less than nothing.
Not the responsible parties mind ya, just the victims…sigh…
I guess we shall have to trust in God to sort them out…
Just usual British propaganda BS. They know very well they will not be able to do this but this attempts to con the domestic population into thinking they are doing something but only being prevented by Russia because of being outnumbered in the area or at the very least stopped by Turkey.
Looks like another cauldron forming with 5-10k troops trapped. Why do Nazis always want to relive the glory of the third Reich by re-enacting Stalingrad? I mean that France thing seemed to go so much better. They got caught in 2 cauldrons in 2014 that lost thousands of troops and now they are letting tens of thousands get trapped. Maybe they think if they keep trying they’ll get this Stalingrad strategy to work someday? LMAO.
It looks more like a re-enactment of:
The Soviet Union destroyed 28 of 34 divisions of Army Group Centre and completely shattered the German front line.
The main offensive began in the early morning of 22 June, with an artillery bombardment of unprecedented scale against the defensive works. The initial assault achieved breakthroughs almost everywhere.
And that led to the collapse of Army Group Center.
When it was all over the Soviets were at the gates of Warsaw and the Vistula River.
Crazy ideologues can’t retreat since that would show “weakness” and invalidate their whole world-view of being superior to Russia (which apparently is all these guys have, a whole nation built on thinking they are better than Russia).
If they were a genuine nationalistic army that cared about their country and people, they would do everything to save their army since without an army they will lose independence. Russia withdrawing from around Kiev (and taking flak from all quarters for “losing”), or the Brits from Dunkirk in 1940 shows how it can be done.
I look at it differently. Look at it form an investments POV:
* If they had invested in highly mobile (expensive) light attack force with air support\missile cover (NATO style) then they would be always on the go, applying force where needed, fading away, etc.
* What they invested in was trenches, stockpiles and high distributed mini forts. Much cheaper and quite time consuming to remove. This kind of defense forces the attacker to confront the entrenchments in order to secure the area. You can drive around them, but then your supply lines would be shredded by ambushes.
So, their investment was in to static defenses, it’s all the troops have.
For a ‘guy with a gun and orders’, a hole in the ground would seem to offer more protection than ranging on a patrol with no cover. As they are finding out however, they are located on sat, scouted by drone, and shelled by artillery. For the ‘guy with a gun’ most of which probably don’t want to be there, what option keeps you alive longer? I bet that once this is all said and done that reaving was a bad strategy as patrols go out and never come back (because they fled, not because they were killed). Hence, keeping people in place allows you to ‘at least’ slow the Russians down long enough to hope for a hail mary from the west.
I’m betting a huge number of the Ukrainians don’t want to be at war with Russia and are not crazy\insane. I sat next to one for 2 years at work. He was thoughtful, articulate and conservative. His family are still there. He wants Russia to win before Odessa becomes the conflict zone.
I’m an Australian. If the USA invaded us and replaced our politicians with puppets VS we kept independence and had everything reduced to rubble, I’d go with a new puppet to replace the existing puppet. I’m not even sure why Ukraine is even fighting. They we’re never free from being a puppet state before and after all the death and destruction they will just get a new puppet installed by the victor.
Here’s the latest SITREP from AP:
After 3 months, Russia still bogged down in Ukraine war
It’s an interesting lesson in propaganda, where the only way they can depict Ukraine as winning is by moving the goal posts. For example, they say:
“When Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, it had hoped to overtake the country in a blitz lasting only days or a few weeks. Many Western analysts thought so, too…There was no quick victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s powerful forces, no rout that would allow the Kremlin to control most of Ukraine and establish a puppet government.”
Of course, none of these “western analysts” are privy to Russia’s plans. They assign to Russia motives and goals it has never expressed. It is simply presumed that their goals would be similar to America’s “overwhelming force/shock and awe” type invasion of Iraq where they flatten the whole country’s infrastructure and quickly install a puppet government. Ignored completely are Russia’s actual stated goals of (1) Liberating the people of the Donbass; (2) De-Nazification of Ukraine and (3) Making certain that Ukraine never joins NATO. Instead, Russia’s methodical shrinking of Ukraine into a landlocked rump state is portrayed as them getting “bogged down” and the massive western military/financial aid is the reason. This in spite of them also reporting:
“Russia has seized significant chunks of territory around the Crimean Peninsula that Moscow annexed eight years ago. It also has managed to cut Ukraine off completely from the Sea of Azov, finally securing full control over the key port of Mariupol after a siege that prevented some of its troops from fighting elsewhere while they battled diehard Ukrainian forces.”
So Ukraine shrinking and losing every battle is somehow Russia getting “bogged down” – “as Western arms flow into Ukraine to bolster its outgunned army.”
I don’t think they expect that most of the readers of this AP article are going to go past the headline and opening paragraph or two.
Lets not us fall for that Ukie trick. And on a side note,go volunteers,come on many and strong:
Blocked on the territory of Russia «Medusa» continues sabotage activities on the Russian audience
Political scientist Alexey Zhivov @zhivoff especially for the channel Soroca-beloboka @soroka_belaya
The dissemination of fakes about the Russian army, sergeants and officers of the Russian armed forces is an important part of the Ukrainian military propaganda.
The «Project» edition under the editorial of «Medusa» has made a 10-minute «investigative clip» . Major Ukrainian channels actively dispersed it.
The key thesis of the video: in Russia the entire Russian army is fighting, they have left the regions unprotected; all combat-capable units of the Armed Forces are involved in the Special Military Operation.
Serious analysis and proof of «Project» does not bother itself.
A typical mechanism looks like this: thesis – example – ant example – inference. Graphics, images, and voice are always used to hide the insufficiency of the argument. This achieves the emotional involvement of the viewer, who takes the «magic of the video» on faith, without exposing the seen and heard critical analysis.
Ukrainian propaganda uses the principle of active mixing of «honey and shit» in a single information boiler. Borscht of the Ukrainian propaganda is prepared as follows: 33% of pure lies, 33% of half-truths, and 33% of the truth.
It is enough for most of the audience to draw a beautiful infographic with tanks and symbols of combat units, to include in the video a few unrelated shots from the combat zone to prove «the truth» of the statement that all combat-capable units of the Russian army are fighting in Ukraine.
What is the reality?
The total number of Russian troops in the Special Military Operation zone, including all types of special units and related security structures, does not exceed 200,000 people. One third of them are logistical support. The contingent of the Defense Ministry does not exceed 100 thousand people.
An estimate of the total size of the Russian army for 2022 is 1 million. This does not include military-civilian specialists.
In the ground forces serves about 300,000 people. Up to a third are fixed-term employees who are not involved in the operation. The entire military group of the Defense Ministry on the territory of Ukraine is 100,000 people, including representatives of other branches of troops. Even assuming that they all serve in the ground forces, Russia has engaged in a Special Military Operation with only a third of its ground army.
Another thesis deserves consideration: «Russia has transferred all combat-capable combat aviation to Ukraine».
Two weeks ago, all Ukrainian TV channels in a single gust screamed: «The Russians simultaneously lifted into the air 20 aircraft of the Space Force – this is the largest amount of combat aviation in the air since the beginning of the Special Military Operation».
Here you can make several interesting conclusions at once:
First, Ukraine does not have the physical ability to monitor Russian warships. The only source they could get that kind of intelligence from was the Pentagon.
Second, the Armed Forces of Russia has 1800 combat aircraft! And the operation involves no more than 100 units.
The Russian Army has over 800 fighters in service, and another 1,500 attack and military-transport helicopters.
The Ukrainian propaganda by lies, distortion of facts and media manipulations convinces that Russia «has used the whole army, has exposed the rear, and is close to the exhaustion of forces».
In fact, the operation in Ukraine employs from 10 to 30% of the country’s military potential, which, after the start of the Special Military Operation, grew markedly. Ukraine has so far seen only young contract workers and professional soldiers, but soon it will see hundreds of thousands of angry Russian male volunteers, who have become too eager to avenge the torture of our soldiers. It’s gonna hurt.
Shoygu is still in hospital under intensive care with heart attack, after Putin had told him he was a complete idiot in the way he had handled the Ukrainian war.
Some Russian Maestro will compose the Donbass symphony! Forward Mother Russia!
So we believed the war will only last 2 days, then a week… then we don’t know it may never end.
Having read the article about Finland having purchased fighter jets, tanks and other heavy weapons in December… looks like the plan was ”if we ukraine is failure Finland is plan B to have NATO directly involved”.
Some, no, most westerners live in make believe land.
How about those Poles?
Yes indeed. Very interesting. What do they think they’re doing other than providing targets for the RF?
Larchmonter has posted on Martynov’s blog
“Military expert, Doctor of Military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov also added that Poland’s participation in a military operation on the side of Ukraine does not mean that a Russia – NATO conflict will begin.
If the Poles are drawn in, then, of course, we will hit the Poles. And they expect that in these conditions, after the Poles, NATO will join. But they have already told the Poles that if they get in there, it will be their personal initiative and it has nothing to do with the alliance.”
Adding these two reports together it would seem that the Polish battalions have been attacked. So the question is “What will Warsaw do now?”
Honestly. I was very disappointed when Readovka claimed that one Ukie Brigade surrendered west from Kiev less two months ago. In fact they had half dozen photos of same just around 40 Ukie POWs of one Battalion of that Brigade. The whole “news” was very embarrasing. Good lesson that one can’t trust too much on these sensational news until confirmed by more reliable sources.
Grinding is over? Let’s see. Ukies are in trouble after mass “evacuation” in Azovstal. But they still have material and will to resist. It would take likely few months to push the remnants of Ukie forces from Donbas. And whole 2022 to take Kharkiv (if it’s option). I’d be glad to be wrong and see RF/DPR/LPR advancing much faster. I’m likely not the only one who have been fooled to believe too much in these Readovka (over)optimistic news. After all i’d have known better how slow progress land warfare is and how easily “enemy fast collapsing” have lured many army high commanders during military history.
The Kiev brigade that surrendered West of Kiev was a HQ brigade, different animal than a combat brigade – my recollection was 234 Officers plus others surrendered.
Agreed, some of the titles can be too sensationalist and overoptimistic. But, hey, a blog has got to grow its readership and entertain its subscribers :)
I would have appreciated “The Grind introduces his comrade: Slow Bulldozer” better.
The Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) is reporting as of 19 May that they had 1,808 soldiers killed and 7,536 wounded (4.17-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed strength of 20,000. This is 47% casualties out of an estimated force of 20,000, which is pretty serious. However if their true strength is 50,000 the loss (9,344) is around 19%.
DPR have been surprisingly diligent about regularly reporting their casualty figures. One wonders if some Russian losses or contractors are being included in these FIGURES (likely yes?) . Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) is reported as of 5 April to have had 500-600 killed out of an estimated force of 14,000. Can we estimate their loss be now around 1,000 killed and 4,000 wounded using same 1 to 4 ratio? If their true strength is now 40,000 the loss (5,000) is 12,5%.
The UN is reporting on 23 May at least 3,930 civilians confirmed dead in the war. Of those 2,200 of the deaths are in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
According scientific study made by Charles Hirschman, Samuel Preston and Vu Manh Loi the Vietnamese casualties during the 1965-75 were:
-around 350,000 civilians because the war
– 600,000-650,000 military persons of different forces
Hirschman, Preston and Vu Manh Loi highly scientifuc study based on large demographic study (of 40 province), only one of a kind, debunked the myth of 3-5 million Vietnamese casualties. They gave medium estimate of 968,000 deaths with lower limit been 886,000 and upper, absolute maximum around 1,050,000.
The ratio of civilian to military casualties was around 1 to 2. The trio was not the only and first who have doubted popular claims of 3-5 million Vietnamese deaths.
Can casualties of Vietnam War help us understand the more realistic military casualties of war in Ukraine? At least we can try to use 1 to 2 ratio between civilian and military casualties. Adding 20% to civilian casualties we will got 5,000 deaths suggesting the military deaths being 10,000.
This method would debunk both Ukie and RF claims of high military losses (of their enemy). But of course the ratio could also be 1 to 3 giving 15,000 military deaths.
The convention in the US among nonpartisan historians is to term the war the “War in Southeast Asia,” not the “Vietnam War” because it wasn’t limited to an intranationalist conflict in Vietnam but rather included Cambodia and Laos in an imperialist aggression of some western powers and the participation of China and the Soviet Union. The usual figure given for casualties to my recollection is (the “popular” historical consensus) at least 2 to over 5 million Vietnamese, Cambodians and Laotians; this number can be expanded depending upon accounting for direct effects of the war’s poisons, munitions and mines and indirect lost production and fertility and whether one considers the Vietnamese liberation of Phnom Penh the end or the pacification of the Khmer Rouge supported by the CIA into the 80s.
It’s not historiographically literate or particularly moral to focus on a military pseudoscience of kill counts rather than more encompassing social consequences when considering the effects of the horror of total war which includes attacks on civil society’s means of subsistance and integrity.
I can’t say much with regard to DPR and LPR militia casualties, but here is what the US military has to say about Russian and Ukrainian military casualties.
This is taken from a Pentagon press conference that was delivered on May 16th. Source:
The defense official said:
“So of the 140 or so plus that he dedicated to the mission, you know, he’s got 106 operational in Ukraine but he doesn’t have a whole lot else on the periphery of Ukraine to add into there. So there has definitely been lossage here but I’m — I think I’m going to refrain from providing a percentage of the losses.”
The 140 and 106 refers to Russian battalion tactical groups or BTG. One BTG contains anywhere between 800 to 1000 personnel. Assume an average of 900 per BTG. Assume “140 plus” means 140 to 145. So the Russians started out with around 126,00 to 130,500 men, and now has around 95,400 in Ukraine. So there are around 30,600 to 35,000 Russian soldiers that were arrayed around the border but are not currently fighting in Ukraine. I have no idea how many BTGs were left to guard the border and perform other tasks on the Russian and Belarusian side, but it’s a pretty long border. Let’s just say maybe 5 or 6 BTGs, so that leaves around 26,000 to 30,000 dead, wounded, captured, deserted, laid-up with various medical conditions, etc. If you assume that maybe some of the BTGs still operating don’t have as many men as they used to have, then it might be somewhat more than 30,000 on the high end. So a rough estimate is anywhere from 5,000 to 10,000 dead, 2 to 3 times that many wounded, and the rest captured, ill, etc. I would guess it’s nearer to the smaller number, since the Pentagon is obviously going to spin things to look as bad as possible for Russia. Also, I think it’s telling that the defense official won’t provide percentages. The fact that they won’t say is probably because it doesn’t jibe with the ridiculously huge casualty rates Ukraine and the media are spreading.
In the same briefing the defense official says:
“…we still assess that, again, of all the combat power he had, he still has a significant majority left available to him. And we would assess that the Ukrainians also have in the aggregate a majority of their assembled combat power available to them too.”
So Russia has a “significant majority” whereas Ukraine now has “in the aggregate a majority.” I assume the “in the aggregate” means that Ukraine’s units are being blown to pieces, but there are enough new conscripts running around that over half of the number of men they had in uniform at the start, they still have, just maybe not the same men.
In case someone might think Russia has replaced a lot of dead and wounded with fresh soldiers, Russia has not sent any significant number of reinforcements to Ukraine since the start of the operation. That was stated in a different briefing, but I can’t find it now. Also in this briefing and others it is stated that Russia is flying 200 to 300 sorties a day, so their air force seems to be functioning just fine despite whatever loses they have suffered.
I know these are rough figures. However, one thing of note, not even the Pentagon thinks Russia had anywhere close to the 200,000 troops at the start that I have seen in some places.
These are some of the comments I found on Chinese TV following a story of surrender or “Evacuation” of the neo nazis from Azovstal. Millions have deep support and respect for Russia. Ple
5 days ago
Nice to see this described as what it really is, a surrender.
5 days ago (edited)
Stay strong Russia. You are defeating the internationalists. Glory to Russia
5 days ago
The amount of spiritual support Russia has is invaluable.
5 days ago
Western media: this is a successful evacuation action by Ukraine
5 days ago
Stay strong Russia. You have more support than you think here from people on the West.Greetings from Italy
burgman rider Haidari
burgman rider Haidari
5 days ago
Glory to Russia 🇷🇺 🙌 👏 🙏
5 days ago
Stay strong Russia. we are with you.
5 days ago
China seems to have a better grasp of English than the West. Correctly used the term, “surrender.”
5 days ago
Another batch of brave Ukrainians being rewarded a long holiday trip to Siberia.
5 days ago
That was not holdingout that was hidingout
Nils von Rechendorff
Nils von Rechendorff
4 days ago
The majority of citizens in both Sweden and Finland do not want NATO membership. Both countries have enjoyed good relations between themselves and Russia.
This move is designed by the US and some politicians in those two countries. This move does not enhance neither peace or security.
Sareeye Ma Nusqaame
Sareeye Ma Nusqaame
4 days ago
The US just sent occupational forces to my country Somalia after committing genocide over 3 decades and no single word of condemnation, no single sanctions nor talk of “territorial integrity and sovereignty”!!! Thank you Russia for standing up to the western bullies! Glory to Russia!!! From US military occupied Somali people, we are with you!!!
5 days ago
Let all fighter just surrender,, they have no means to fight a war which is not their but zelsnkys and USA war..
5 days ago
Go Russia Go !
Show US and its nato gang what screw up they continue to be.
5 days ago (edited)
Russia is our favorite country! 🇷🇺❤️🐻💪🏼Hello friendly to all our friends.
5 days ago
Finland may lack the authority to decide what types of weapons will be stationed on its soil.
When Russia invited Finland to discuss regional security recently, the Finnish Prime Minister delegated the response to EU Secretary-General Ursula von der Leyen.
Finland may no longer be a sovereign state.
5 days ago
Go Russia ,please don’t give up this fight ,you are not fighting for yourself but for all us freedom loving people , especially us Serbs
the uncomfortable truth
the uncomfortable truth
4 days ago
Stay strong Russia. May you lead us out of western military and financial bullying.
4 days ago
Majority of free people in the world today support Russia in their struggle for security and independence
5 days ago
This is what fighting to the last Ukrainian looks like.
4 days ago
Atleast the word “SURRENDER” is used here unlike BBC they said it was an EVACUATION 😁
5 days ago
Russia : Batallion Azov surrendered
US & Nato : Batallion Azov didn’t surrender. They’re conducting a special military operation in Russian prisons
5 days ago (edited)
The problem with Nato is that just like the West as a whole it cannot be trusted. Now Finland says no military bases and nukes are planned on its territory, but as soon as they are members, they will make a u-turn. Think of the ‘not an inch’ promise regarding Nato’s expansion to the east. The inch became thousands of km.
Not only Turkey, Croatia has also indicated it will veto those two countries’ membership.
5 days ago
Finland is digging its own grave .
A new clown world story:
The Ukrainian “intelligence” chief says by the end of the year the Ukrainians will defeat Russia and go into Crimea.
He must have got into Zelensky’s coke supply. It really doesn’t matter how many weapons that NATO supplies Ukraine,Russia will have more and better ones. The Russian arms factories aren’t closed. They are working 24/7 making replacements. Many NATO countries factories aren’t even working full hours.
Then where will Ukraine get the troops they need. By the end of the year if they aren’t totally defeated and surrendered. There will be thousands more dead,ten’s of thousands wounded. And probably a hundred thousand or more in POW camps or deserted or have fled across foreign borders. And lets assume ten’s of thousands of foreign mercenaries from the NATO states where to be stupid enough to go to Ukraine. They would be killed like the Ukrainians. And probably a lot more readily by the Russians than they do with Ukrainian soldiers.
Even the fatal move of NATO actually entering the war won’t do the trick for Ukraine. At that point Russia would be able to unleash their full power on the NATO states. Up to and including nuclear weapons if they had too.
It’s suprising how no armed forces want to give figures of soldiers missing in action. There are dispersed information (claims?) of captured enemy soldiers but not total figures. Besides not even near all MIA cases are POWs. There are actually killed and deserting soldiers too.
In fact during WW2 in 1944 there were much more German MIA than KIA+DOWs soldiers.
“Alexander Khodakovsky: When the Azovs began to surrender, we were stunned. It turned out that there were more of them than us!”
This is a very detailed interview with Vostok`s commander about the last three months, the lessons learned, Mariupol, azov, etc:
use deepl.com, paste about half the text in one jump.
I wonder if Russia has quit selling rocket engines to Musky America, also the metals necessary for engineering & manufacturing in the space & defence programmes.
For sure I’m expecting the prices of these metals to have rocketed and Russia may wish to enjoy these revenue streams, however, if the oil & gas are still flowing westwards then ways have to be found to hurt the US economy, just as they are trying to hurt Russia.
At least Russia is being proactive and not hanging around for the next US provocation/false flag. Russia, China, India, Iran & Allies should have teams/think tanks/ corporate espionage working 24/7 to come up with forward plans of attack. Keep them busy, play them at their own game & more. Gloves are off, it’s carte blanche in the heady world of business & politics. They who must be obeyed are at their weakest, kick them in the face when they’re down, sit on them, suffocate them.
Feeding 5-10k prisoners doesn’t seem appropriate, except in the short term. The NATO officers though, feed them up good because we want to see US & EU looking their most distinguished at the tribunal.
Lastly if it’s correct about the Poles being hit in the face with Kalibrs then I look forward to seeing that on video.
Apologies for this long post (translated from a Russian site):
N-TV: Europe should be more afraid of shutting off not gas, but Russia’s “uranium tap”
👁 16K_ _ 09:06 – 22/May/22 Shuva
In Europe, they talk a lot about the embargo on Russian oil and gas, but out of forgetfulness or deliberately keep silent about enriched uranium, reports N-TV. But the EU depends on it more than on blue fuel. At the same time, we are also talking about technological dependence, which European nuclear power plants will not be able to overcome without serious damage to production. Shutting off the “uranium tap” threatens to undermine the power supply in entire countries, experts warn.
The material is presented in the retelling of InoTV
The EU is now in full swing discussing how to abandon Russian oil and gas, according to N-TV. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen insists that this must be done ” as soon as possible “. But out of forgetfulness or intentionally, European politicians are silent about the supply of other Russian raw materials, namely enriched uranium, which, against the backdrop of all the latest discussions, has found itself in a kind of “ blind zone ”. At the same time, the EU depends on it much more than on natural gas, because, according to the European Atomic Energy Community, it buys about 40% of the enriched uranium necessary for the operation of nuclear power plants from Russia and Kazakhstan “ close to the Kremlin”, experts explain.
At the same time, the union acquires from Moscow not only raw materials, but also technologies, N-TV continues. Over the years, the Kremlin has invested billions in improving the technological process of uranium enrichment and has been able to achieve success: Russian facilities are considered among the best in the world. In addition, there are 18 countries in the EU where Russian nuclear reactors are located: two in Bulgaria, six in the Czech Republic, two in Finland, four in Hungary and four in Slovakia.
The European Atomic Energy Community emphasizes that in this area Europe is very dependent on Russia and “ extremely vulnerable ”. After all, pressurized water reactors need to be replaced regularly. At the same time, they work only on Russian-made hexagonal rods. Western manufacturers have little to no experience with these fuel elements, which makes it impossible for European nuclear power plant operators to reduce their dependence on Russia without serious damage to production.
The Kremlin’s strategy was to start supplying the West with cheap uranium and nuclear technology, N-TV explains. And she worked. Despite the hostilities in Ukraine, cooperation in this area continues. Russia does not earn as much money on this as on the sale of gas and oil, but still they go to cover military expenses. In addition, the events in Ukraine, in a sense, played into the hands of the head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin. Because of them, the price of uranium on the world market increased by 30%, reaching the highest value in the last 11 years.
Many nuclear power plant operators are afraid that the Russian president will turn off the ” uranium tap ” for them. This will have catastrophic consequences for the West, experts warn, because for all this time they have not taken any measures to diversify supplies in this area. There are very few sellers of this raw material, and delivery times are very long. Stopping the sale of enriched uranium would seriously harm the operation of nuclear power plants and undermine the power supply of entire countries, such as Slovakia and Hungary, which receive half of their electricity from peaceful nuclear power.
The degree of dependence of these states on Russia is evidenced by one significant episode, when, despite the sanctions ban, Russian transport aircraft were allowed to land in Slovakia and Hungary in the spring to deliver fuel elements. Thanks to the abandonment of nuclear energy, Germany is, of course, less dependent on uranium supplies. But the Russian concern Rosatom also makes money there: in the storage of radioactive waste and the dismantling of nuclear power plants. In addition, the disruption of electricity supply in a number of European countries will lead to an unforeseen increase in prices in the European electricity market, from which the Germans will inevitably suffer.
To avoid such a situation, US nuclear plant operators asked their government to continue deliveries of Russian uranium despite the fighting in Ukraine. To this day, the United States has not imposed any sanctions against Rosatom, although this state-owned concern is the most suitable target for punitive measures, even if only because of the dominant position that it occupies in the world, N-TV concludes.
Yes, I read a similar report in Sputnik’s Telegram feed.
‘In addition, there are 18 countries in the EU where Russian nuclear reactors are located: two in Bulgaria, six in the Czech Republic, two in Finland, four in Hungary and four in Slovakia.’
These countries are scr**ed if Russia cuts off their nuclear fuel supply.
The stupidity of the EU’s ‘leaders’ continues to boggle the mind.
I have long thought that there is a major flaw in the argument of those who think the Russian SMO is failing.
For Russia,the success of Operation Z is essential. Russia has a military and leadership that is evidently highly trained, educated, intelligent and motivated. Its weapons are very sophisticated and numerous.Russia has recent military successes. Rightfully we do not know the Russian military plan is but they say that it objectives are being met and the plan is so far successful.
Given all the above,the very obvious and simple conclusion is that if Russia was not winning then it would change plan and use its very sophisticated military and indeed… be winning.
As regards a second NATO army forming in West Ukraine. Russia will be very aware of that possibility and will have extensive plans to deal with this. I totally fail to understand how an army that does not even yet exist some how defeats an already succeeding Russia .It is NATO “wishful” thinking being projected by those that really should know better!
From Military Chronicle https://voenhronika.ru/
The Armed Forces of Ukraine are moaning from HUGE LOSSES – they have nothing to fight with! But this is just a warm-up before the summer! Reports from Ukraine Yuriy Podolyaka today (2022)
Most of the Liman under the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The initial information about hundreds of captured soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is partially confirmed. “Prisoners from the 79th Airborne Assault Brigade, the 24th Mechanized Brigade, the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade and a large number of territorial defense. They also report prisoners from the Donbass National Battalion. Some of the prisoners have already been taken out of the battle zone. On the other hand, the military commander Kotz denied the report of a large number of prisoners during the day.
Russian troops entered Liman from the side of the settlement. Drobyshevo and Stavki on the morning of May 23. During the day, the northern districts of the city with low-rise buildings were occupied. On May 24, the Zeleny Klin microdistrict was taken. The Armed Forces of Ukraine were forced out of the adjacent forests in the direction of Shchurovo, which is now being fought over. Fierce fighting goes on the street. Independence (former Frunze) – there is an administrative quarter with high-rise buildings. (Fisher)
In the south of Donbass, there is a serious advance in the Svetlodarsk region, where the enemy was not allowed to gain a foothold on the arm, occupying the village of Vozrozhdenie and now the next target is Bakhmut. Continued in the material.
Scott Ritter firing back at his critics on his Telegram thread concerning M777A2 crossing from Poland to Ukraine
“🇺🇸🇺🇦⚡️Fresh batch of US-delivered M777A2 howitzers spotted crossing into Ukraine from Poland.
Notably, this batch has radio communication and GPS equipment installed, as well as antennas for measuring the muzzle velocity of the projectile of M982 Excalibur rounds.”
“One has to ask how and why this is permitted to take place.”
“The Excalibur is a true “one shot, one kill” munition. Thousands have been provided to Ukraine by the US and Canada. The Ukrainian Army spent weeks in Germany learning how to employ this weapon. If these M777A2’s reach the battlefield, they will kill scores of Russians. That is an inescapable fact.”
What say you Andrei Martyanov? Gonzo? Et Al
See? Tolya! Mr Ritter is worried about Russian soldiers.
He a good man…😉
‘If’ it has antennas it’s trackable and jambable and you did say if. If they get there….guess we’ll see who is right….Ritter or the RF MOD. If, doesn’t have favourable odds.
Sure. Assuming they all reach the battle fields, how many? 100? Compared with Russian guns? How many? 6,000-8,000?
If you do not get a stable front, where you can deploy the new weapons, they probably not much help. You need air defence, more overall troops/weapons so that it does not become a lone target. Otherwise it will be destroyed before it does too much damage. Sound a little bit like the end of WW2. Germany had the better tanks, but the US produce so many, that the Germans were totally outnumbered. Same here. If you can not regroup – and that would be a nice target for the Russians – the chance are low.
Even if the M777 is better and has higher range and bigger firepower. Then the Russians just start 2 jets and destroy them. Or use a missile, if the position is well know.
I normally access a number of different Ukraine war related websites to track situation updates. Today I discovered I can no longer access these sites. That’s probably because they’re labelled “Russian propaganda” by US authorities and Internet providers.
I get this message when trying to access the site: “Your Internet access is blocked.”
Can anyone tell me what I should do to get access to these websites? I’m sure there are techniques for circumventing the blocks.
install a VPN, and set it to the country of origin of the site You are trying to view.
Try Proton VPN, free, You have US, NL, and Japan servers. Limited, but hey…OK for reading a few sites…
I use Opera browser. Has a builtin free VPN option. Works well for accessing RussiaTV website here in UK.
I did not notice anything else censored so far.
You can try different browsers like Opera that has a VNP “installed” or use an Android device that has means to manipulate and go around the restrictions.
Works for me.
I go via Servia VPN
If Zelensky had the slightest bit of basic human feeling, he would surrender, A.S.A.P., and spare the Ukrainian civilian population all that suffering. Instead, he wants to let the U.S. take advantage of the death of every last Ukrainian.
Any news yet on Ukrainian ICBMs found near Pavlograd? I wonder when will these pesky Russians take the gloves off and deal with this Ukrainian scourge as it is suitable?
Zelensky is destroying his own armed forces. The Kyiv regime is driving its own grouping into another encirclement.
The emphasis is that Zelensky is a Jew, so why should he care about the Ukrainian males? The Ukrainians are Slavs, after all.
RE Pavlograd, here’s a link with video via google translate:
While they must regret the loss of life, the Russian armed forces must be pleased with the opportunity to get their army into a maximum readiness situation.
There are no forces more ready than this Russian army right now as a result of this SMO, with both small and large-scale military maneuvers, and testing its new weapons. They are not fighting insurgents. It’s more like a “real war.”
There are now cries to Russia from western NGO’S to open up Black Sea ports for grain exports so there won’t be starvation in the middle east.
Well why isn’t the calls to Ukraine?
They have mined Odessa.
But the crys also mention lack of fuel.
Yes there is a lack of fuel because Russia is hitting supply lines and Ukraine is emptying the farm storage to conduct war, ask the U.S why they won’t allow negotiations and keep sending arms…they don’t seem to be worried about hunger…in fact U.S agribusiness will make a killing (excuse the pun)!
Its funny how all calculations end up in the U.S making lots of money out of this war!
Satans alter boy , kissinger ask for end of hostilities, very interesting development, even upset the ukies stating territory should be ceded. nothing like luxury private planes while they tell you to get used to cold showers and food shortages
Voenkor Kitten Z
Military expert Boris Rozhin with a brief summary of the results of the operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine at 22.00 on May 24, 2022, especially for the Voenkor Kotenok Z @voenkorKotenok channel :
Today, the entire Svetlodarsk arc collapsed. The operational factor that existed for 7 years was dissolved in 1 day. The troops liberated Svetlodarsk, Lugansk. The enemy is still holding Novoluganskoye, but there are signs of preparations for a further withdrawal of troops. The enemy also lost the villages of Vozrozhdenie and Roty. To Artemovsk – 15-20 kilometers.
There is no assault on the city yet, although the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the city are already being fired upon by our artillery. The enemy is preparing the city for defense, and is also trying to hold on to Pilipchatino, preparing to withdraw to Pokrovsky, where he is preparing for a longer defense.
Fighting continued near Novaya Kamenka, Stryapovka and in the direction of Yakovlevka. There is no assault on Soledar yet. The road north of Soledar is increasingly being bombarded by artillery. The enemy admits supply problems, but continues to use the Soledar-Lysichansk highway.
The DPR army announced that it would not storm Avdiivka head-on, but would occupy it bypassing and blocking Avdiivka. Now the fighting is going on in the area of Kamenka, Novselovka-2 and Krasnogorovka. Fighting also continues on the outskirts of New York.
The cleansing of Kamyshevakhi and the fighting on the southern outskirts of Zolote continue. Fighting continues in Toshkovka. It is reported that Lipovoye has been occupied by our troops. The position of the enemy in the Gorsko-Zolotoy fortified area worsened again.
Fighting continues on the outskirts of the city. The enemy also reports the resumption of active fighting near Belogorovka, which implies that the Russian Armed Forces have accumulated forces on the other side of the Seversky Donets to resume fighting for the village. The loss of Belogorovka threatens to quickly cut off Severdonetsk and Lisichansk from the main group.
During the day, the battles for Krasny Liman continued. More than half of the city has been liberated. The enemy suffered heavy losses in killed and captured. It can be expected that the remnants of the AFU grouping in Krasny Liman will soon retreat beyond the Seversky Donets. Krasny Lyman will most likely be taken within 1-3 days.
Fighting continued in the area of Kamyshevakhi, Dolgenkiy and Kurulka. The enemy notes that the RF Armed Forces are now accumulating forces in this direction to develop the offensive. Attempts to counterattack the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the flank of the Izyum group were not successful.
Fighting continued on the lines of Cossack Lopan, Liptsy, Ternovaya, Rubizhnoye. In general, tendencies towards positionality prevail here.
Marinka, Zaporozhye, Vuhledar, Nikolaev and Odessa- without changes.
In the medium term, an intensification of hostilities is expected in the Zaporizhia and Nikolaev directions, as well as new attempts by Ukraine to attack Serpent Island.
Thank you for the info. always.
I have read some good news from the front, allied forces today liberated the small DPR city of Svetlodarsk and the LPR village of Lipovoye.
A few videos for today.
‘Msta-B’ howitzers in combat action:
Russia’s Giatsint-S self-propelled gun in action amid continuing hostilities:
Exploring the ruins of Azovstal:
Shows a Buk-M3 system:
Russias’ stratergy next is what decides how fast or how costly the roll up or Ukrainian defences is.
Russia must identify the system of resupply that is happening.
First gial is to stop all train transportation as far west as possible.
A fuel tanker has a distance of at least 1600km and an armoured troop carrier about 800km.
A fuel tanker is too vulnerable so the fuel will be broken down into smaller trucks, probably covered transport carrying fuel bladders.
The troop carriers will not waste fuel by traveling to far from the front.
So all truck transport traveling east can be assumed to be supporting the war effort.
These are all legitimate targets.
The longer Russia can “starve” Ukrainian forces of the necessities of war…the quicker it will be over.
Russia should have a dedicated team to identify supply routes and targets.
Why Russians are winning? It is not superior weapons, and superior tactics. It is not because they are smart and brave, and they are all that. It is because they have allies. No it is not China or Iran. Russians don’t torture POWs, don’t kill and loot civilians, don’t lie and manipulate, they don’t hate, and because of all that among their ranks are invincible warriors, holy warriors – St Alexander Nevsky, Ilya Muromets, st Dimitry Donskoy, and thousands more. Know this, Russia is stopping Davos satan’s synagogue from establishing antichrists empire. May Risen Christ be with you, my Russian brothers.
You may be right.
Actually, Russia’s worst weakness may be the ways in which some people are still too mesmerized by Western degenerate culture. At least in Russia leaders such as Putin and Kirill try to stem and oppose the degenerate elements of Western culture, whereas in the West the leaders embrace and promote the degeneracy!
The West Has Fallen Into Its Own Trap in Ukraine
There are a number of reasons – both external and internal -why Russia is in no hurry with its military special operation in Ukraine. Knowing them, one understands everything.
https://voenhronika.ru/ (The Military Chronicle – Machine Translation)
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is in hysterics! The front is collapsing, Ukrainian soldiers are fleeing Lysychansk in the fields! Reports from Ukraine on the morning of May 25 (16 videos)
The situation in the Severodonetsk direction is critical for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but political technologists at Bankovaya think otherwise, for them this is a new symbol of resistance to Russian aggression. Zelensky refuses to give an order to retreat from the city, although it is already too late – the road to Bakhmut is already under fire and cut. Reinforcements in the future boiler are now only in the fields. According to local residents, the Ukrainian military abandon their positions in the suburbs of Lisichansk (LPR) and run through fields and country roads, where they run into minefields.
It is reported that this night a meeting was held in Kyiv, at which a decision was made to leave the cities on the eastern front in case of a threat of complete encirclement.
In the north of the Kharkiv region, positional battles continue. The RF Armed Forces carried out artillery strikes on the accumulation of enemy manpower in Tsirkuny. Fighting continues for Ternovoe on the border with the Belgorod region. Continued in the material.
Morning briefing of the Russian Defense Ministry.
— In Mariupol, the demining of the seaport was completed;
– The production workshops of the Motor Sich plant were destroyed by a missile strike;
– In the area of the railway station Pokrovskoye, units of the reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed;
– Air-launched missiles hit 25 targets, incl. the radio engineering center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the logistics center of the 72nd motorized infantry brigade and two air defense radar posts;
– Air strikes were carried out on 49 objects;
– Above the n.p. Barmashovo shot down a Mi-8 helicopter;
– 11 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed, incl. one “Bayraktar TB-2”;
– Rocket troops and artillery hit 489 targets.
The Truth About the $40 Billion in US Aid Ostensibly Being spent to arm Ukraine
By Larry Johnson –
Published May 24, 2022 at 9:50pm
I think Scott Ritter jumped the gun in calling the $40 billion dollar Ukrainian aid bill a “game changer.” Once you take time to parse the details you quickly realize the media is misleading the American public on the reality of the $40 billion dollars ostensibly designated to buy weapons and equip Ukraine with a cornucopia of lethality. Mark Cancian at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (aka CSIS) provides an excellent breakdown of what was actually appropriated. Here is a quick summary:
$19 billion for immediate military support to Ukraine
$3.9 billion to sustain U.S. forces deployed to Europe
$16 billion for economic support to Ukraine and global humanitarian relief
$2 billion for long-term support to NATO allies and DOD modernization programs
Right off the bat, you can see that Ukraine is not getting $40 billion dollars worth of military goodies to whack Russians. They are not even getting $19 billion. The $19 billion is carved up into smaller packages:
$6 billion for training, equipment, weapons, logistic support, supplies and services, salaries and stipends and intelligence support to the military and national security forces of Ukraine (and the specifics of the expenditures remain to be determined).
$9 billion to replenish U.S. weapons stocks already sent to Ukraine.
$4 billion for the Foreign Military Financing Program (this allows a foreign country like Ukraine to buy brand new weapon systems).
What could Ukraine buy with $4 billion dollars? They could order 444 M1A2 SEP battle tanks. Getting them built and delivered will take more than a year. Or Ukraine could buy 44 F-35 Jet Fighters. But that is just the cost of the air frame. Ukraine would then have to cough up at least $27,000 per flight hour per plane. Delivery on that system would take years. Lockheed Martin currently churns out 91 a year. So, if Ukraine is willing to wait 5 years it could have the most advanced fighter in the U.S. arsenal. But that assumes the U.S. Air Force stops buying and lets Ukraine get to the head of the line.
I want to point out that the United States defeated the Japanese and helped defeat the Germans in less time that is required to build 444 F-35s. Not exactly a positive game changer.
Given these facts, Ukraine can only hope to receive $6 billion in military assistance in the immediate future. That is a sizeable chunk of change but there is no requirement that it be spent primarily on weapon systems that are effective against the Russians.
No matter what aid is provided to Ukraine in the coming weeks, the Russians enjoy a decisive advantage in their control of the air space, their precision missile and rocket systems and their robust electronic warfare capabilities.
Drone technology is a game changer. It can fly at any time without risking a pilot being shot down or killed. It can conduct reconnaissance and surveillance of enemy troop locations and movements, which provides the attacking force with precise geo coordinates to destroy enemy troops with missiles or rockets.
It does not matter if the U.S. shares complete Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance about Russian forces because Ukraine does not have the weapon systems to act on that information using lethal force. Ditto if Ukraine has its own powerful ISR systems. It does not have the air power or the missiles to attack the Russian forces. In fact, Russia’s air defense systems have been quite effective in shooting down those planes and missiles Ukraine tried to use.
“‘Situation in Donbass extremely bad’ – Ukraine”
What can you do after supporting Ukraine against Russia? Of course, you go support Taiwan against China (ha, ha, who gets it? Not George Washington).
“Americans use lessons from Ukraine in Taiwan – NYT” -RT
April 16, according to data from the Donetsk People’s Republic, there were about 6,800 foreign fighters from 63 countries. Of this, more than 1,000 foreign fighters were killed and more than 900 fled from Ukraine. Of the foreign fighters, there were 1,800 from Poland, about 500 each from the US, Canada and Romania each, 300 each from Britain and Georgia, 127 from France and 50 from Germany.
Although they are located mainly in the cities of Kiev and Kharkov, with the international legion coordination headquarters located in Belaya Tserkov, they are increasingly appearing in Donbass battlefronts. About 200 have been taken prisoner by the Donetsk People’s Republic military and criminal cases were initiated against them. At least 72 mercenaries fought in Mariupol, the Azov Battalion’s former stronghold, in mid-April.
Ukrainian military reports that the RF Allied forces now have a 7:1 ratio in the Donbas, where did all the Ukrainian forces go…….
They didn’t go anywhere. They went underground.
Russia again, is pushing its adversaries in a quandrary:
– Either they evacuate Luhansk and give Russia another victory.
– Or they hold their ground; get encircled for good; and face a greater degradation of their military potential; and lose the Donetsk oblast faster. Then Russia can retake Odessa faster, at a cheaper price.
So far, they have been blinded, so they will choose to favor a quicker russian victory in Ukraine.
The next step, after Ukraine, will be to up the ante. Losing in Afghanistan, Syria, etc., never taught them to slow down, avoid another campaign, then another defeat.
By retaking the domain peopled and civilized by Catherine the Great, Russia becomes an empire again, with about a population of 170 millions of subjects; a greater economic clout, a greater control of trade routes, and a great diplomatic growth (more than half of the world has already concluded Russia is winning, while the lost west will always be in denial).
This reinforcement of Russia’s potential is something our macronulandleydensoroswabiden cannot possibly accept… at this stage, they either double down or leave the table.
Pride is their fall, they cannot view themselves other than number one, and no defeat can take down this pride… until they physically cease to exist.
They will up the ante, but i think Russia is ready for the next phase of this war, just as she was ready this time, and the bankster side is found less and less ready:. ww3 is inevitable, and in fact it has started. One of the two goes down.
If almost half of RF/DPR/LPR forces operating in Ukraine are actually not RF forces then it’s far more easier to estimate RF losses been less than 4,000 battle deaths. The ratio of death vs wonded is normally 4 or even higher, not 2-3. Besides RF, if following tradition of Red Army, count also sick cases. LPR and DPR have lost around 2,800 killed but with MIA (many of them dead) the real number of deaths is almost certainly more than 3,000 and perhaps near 4,000.
4,000 battle deaths of RF means 16,000-18,000 wounded. MIA and deserters are open question. And much much more when it comes to Ukrainian forces. Most likely more than half of their irreplaceable losses are now MIA. High command likely has no clear knowledge how many of their soldiers have been destroyed, killed or captured or deserting. Giving just KIA figures din’t tell the true scale of disaster.
When Germans lost 395,000-500,000 men during Operation Bagration, most of them during 4 weeks of late June to mid July 44, the OKW reported the huge numbers of MIA just in October 1944 month report. Last bunch came even in Nov 44.
So as so often battle loss figures are lagging behind and true losses are higher than reported but far below claims of enemy.
If Russia had lost at the Pontoon bridge several days ago as it was reported at the time by Ukraine and MSM, would it admit it? No. It does not report such things. Today the NYT has a story about it again with a reporter on the scene and pictures. You see a couple of Russians tanks by the banks of the river. There are dead Russian soldiers around this area. The reporter describes what he sees (equipment, bodies). Several Russian bloggers like Podolyaka were incensed by this massacre, where hundreds of Russian soldiers were entrapped between a strong Ukranian frontline and the river, falling down under heavy artillery. There’s strong reason to believe that it really happened, that an error was made and many soldiers died on that day. MSM, the NYT in particular, will be biased, will listen to only one side, but they are not going to invent what they are still reporting. The fact of the matter, too, is that Russia does not acknowledge any such defeats, so you can’t just say the others lie always. If that really happened, the only one that is going to tell you, giving you some accurate idea of what happened, is the MSM (who else?).
Actually the MOD covered it, a few days after the event they describe how a Ukrainian pontoon bridge and armour crossing it was discovered by UAV, it was then struck by RF artillery. So two stories, who you going to trust. Defense Asia Politics has a decent overview of the ‘battle’ in one of his sit reps. Minor event in a ‘war’, and I only say that because of moves
in Moldavia and the issues in the former Yugoslavia region, the SMO looks pregnant, and may at any moment give berth to an entirely new beast.
“So two stories, who you going to trust.”
Depends on the facts. Russia would not admit it anyway, right? If that’s so, then it will give you an alternate story if it has to (a false war story). If A is right here, B is right too.
For the grunts on the ground, nothing is false. Regardless of who kills who, they live death everyday. What a racket. To me it does not matter, from the safety of my home, who killed who, human being are being killed unnecessarily, and it is a war no matter what anyone wants to call it. Look at the territory the RF Allied forces have liberated. Freed from fascist Nazis, with minimal loss of civilian life. Are they taking casualties, absolutely, watch the trench warfare vid from the warnews story I posted, guys are close enough to lob hand grenades at each other, and kill, or get killed. Ugly in your face death. No one tells the truth in war. People die, equipment gets destroyed people make mistakes, HQ, makes adjustments, the ‘art’ part. Just how it is, war.
Voenkor Kitten Z
Military expert Boris Rozhin with a brief summary of the results of the operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine at 22.45 on May 25, 2022, especially for the Voenkor Kotenok Z @voenkorKotenok channel :
Officially liberated Luhansk. There are fights for Novoluganskoye. The enemy is gradually drawn back to Artemovsk. The surrender of the Svetlodar Bulge is justified by a “tactical maneuver”.
Fighting in the area of Novoselki-2, New York and Krasnogorovka. There is no significant progress today. The enemy puts up stubborn resistance.
Battles at Pilipchatino. There is an increasing processing of the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Artemivsk. The enemy is concentrating equipment to the west of Artemovsk. An attempt to counterattack to unblock the Artemovsk-Lysichansk route is not ruled out.
There is no assault on the city yet. To the north of Soledar, the troops reached the Artemovsk-Lysichansk highway in the area of Belogorovka and Nagorny. The key communications of the Severodonetsk grouping have been cut. There was a supply line through Seversk.
Fighting on the southern outskirts of the village continued, as well as in Kamyshevakh. Vrubovka is still under the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Fighting continues in the Toshkovka area. The grouping in Gorskoye and Zolotoy is in a difficult position. It will be difficult for her to leave.
Fighting continued on the outskirts of Severodonetsk. It is also stated that the troops approached Lisichansk.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to make a difficult decision – either play out the Mariupol scenario, with the encirclement and subsequent complete destruction of the entire Severodonetsk group, or retreat with losses in the direction of Slavyansk and Artemovsk. If the resolution of the issue is delayed, already in the next week the problem of supply will confront the Severodonetsk grouping to its full height, not to mention the fact that the issue of withdrawing troops from the encirclement may disappear by itself.
Most of the city has already been liberated by the RF Armed Forces and the National Guard. The enemy is resisting in the southeastern part of the city. There are reports of the withdrawal of part of the forces to the Seversky Donets. Information about a large number of prisoners has been confirmed.
Positional battles in the area of Kamyshevakhi and Dolgenko. The enemy expects the activation of the Izyum grouping of the RF Armed Forces after the completion of the encirclement of the Severodonetsk grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The enemy continued his attempts to recapture the lost positions in the area of Ternovoye and Rubezhnoye. Didn’t have any major success. At the same time, there is a strengthening of the grouping of the RF Armed Forces in the Kharkiv direction, and there is also talk of strengthening the grouping of the RF Armed Forces on the border of the Sumy and Chernihiv regions.
Nikolaev, Odessa, Zaporizhia, Marinka, Ugledar – no changes.
Good movement… watch the second to last vid before the maps…….frightening, only thing comes to mind, run, run, run, runaway. If that vid is indicative of what the Ukrainians are being hit with. Give up already. Ms Elinsky needs to go.
T-62 tanks and trench warfare
A trainload of old T-62M tanks appeared at the railway station in Melitopol. There is much speculation online about the purpose of the tanks. Are the Russian Armed Forces running out of armor? Someone suggested that the tanks might be used as artillery.
Western and even Pro-Russian media is making the mistake of not differentiating between Russian Federation forces and ex-Ukrainian DPR and LPR forces. Everything is collectively called “Russia”. Maybe the proper name would be “Collective Russia”.
I do not think the Russian Federation will be using these tanks. Most likely they will go to some newly formed LPR/DPR/Zaparozhia reservist units. This post on Telegram might explain the need.
The T-62M tank was last seen in action in Syria. Russia started sending refurbished T-62s to Syria in 2017-2018. The T-62M is old, but might still be a match with the Leopard 1s and the T-72Ms NATO is sending to the Ukraine.