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SMO is an excellent demonstration of Operational Art
Please visit Andrei’s website: https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/
Thank you for posting these videos, much appreciated. But the past several Martyanov videos did not have closed captions available. Thank you to whoever was adding them before, without them hard of hearing and deaf people like me cannot understand what is being said. Thanks again for all the good work!!!
What are the thoughts of the comments of Mikhail Khodarenok in the Russian TV?
I found them funny for some reasons, you can see them today in all the news in Europe and America. Repeating infinite time.
Of course that someone is agree to criticise the SMO destroy that version about Russian propaganda and Tiranny and the only one version in Russia.
I found quite funny that all newspapers of Europe at the same time decide to show for the first time the interview of a Russian, even if he is just a Colonel. But they don’t show comments of Western Officials saying specifically the same about the West
Is the West so crazy dissesperate?
That’s a good point Nathan in WA and he does talk fast. However, on another note I do appreciate the lessons giving here, and some of the folks have forgot this is a “Special Military Operation” by Russia which means “Limited Military Operation” with limited goals and objectives. If it was a “War” Russia would have won in the first 24 hours and Ukraine would be a flat field without using nuclear weapon.
Mods and you know who you are, Thank you for getting the closed captioning enabled!!! Understanding the gems that Martyanov produces is very much appreciated!
All the Best!
I don’t believe Scott Ritter is mistaken. I think he is intentionally telling an untruth. He can’t be dumb enough to think that the alleged infusion of weapons from the West will make a difference.
I agree the US MIC got to him..either threats or money.
I am no fan of Ritter because if what he has done in the past
However, on his analysis I think people are being disingenuous.
The weapons and special forces in NATO will likely be enough to take Western Ukraine and then be in Russias faces unless Russia decides to escalate.
Note these weapons are NOT given to Ukraine. It’s impossible to operate some of these weapons without training let alone integrate that into a wider offensive.
All the high tech weapons are operated by NATO
They plan to take Western Ukraine and then fight a guerilla war against Russia.
Will it work. He thinks so. I don’t because I believe as long as Russia has N, S, and E circled it can smash most of the rest if needed.
But I think not long before false flag now
US is everywhere. Old conflict zones. Huge increase in African presence. Togo, Mali, Somalia all NATO nations boots in ground now.
That indicates America is going all out. Everywhere.
Very dangerous times
Antitank missiles and antihelo missiles will make a difference in the east, where the ukies are dug in. If the russians try to root them out, those weapons will make them pay a price. So Ritter’s not wrong.
Ritter is now saying that because of the infusion of Western weapons, Russia’ military operation will last a very long time. According to Andrei Martyanov, in the above video, Ritter is wrong.
It has already lasted a very long time, 3 months and Donbas is not even liberated, do the math on liberating all of the south
Its a different math
If Ukrainian troops in Donbass eliminated the forces to fight in South are finished.
Troop strength not a constant.
If no NATO troops added South easier to take
It really depends.
I think one thing to consider is even if Ukraine does surrender, will the paramilitary or Azov guys? From what I can tell Ritter said Russia will meet its objectives, but if Ukraine refuses to surrender, or even if they do surrender, the war will continue. And sure while most arms will be blown up, not all especially not smaller arms so what you get is a sort of like permanent angry brainwashed Ukrainian paramilitaries using the surplus of US small arms and keep hitting Russian occupied territory after Russia takes Odessa and possibly Kharkov. Ritter mentioned that this may mean that Russia may need to take all of Ukraine for the success of ‘de-militarization’, instead of just the south/east, and that will need a larger force or possible full mobilization.
Anyway, its just my take on what he said, and I think he does have a point and it should be considered.
Absolutely not, these weapons come from the west and the Ukrainian forces are assieged. They will never see a scrap of this material. The CIA got his hands on Ritter again, they framed him with possession of infantile pornography a few years ago. It’s obvious they handed him a script and threatened him of dire consequences if he wasn’t following it. The US governement has to distract the public from the Ukrainian debacle in Azovstal.
“infantile pornography” ?????? You are somewhat off-base. I think it was the US problem with young girls – in 2011 he was subject to entrapment by a police officer posing as a 15-year old girl online in a Yahoo Chatroom and Ritter exposed himself online.
It is clear that in USA people remain children until 30 and are significantly less mature than Europeans at any age. The fact that police are allowed to operate as agents provocateur is strange
Ritter is a properly twice convicted paedo
Hence I don’t follow him. Stop pretending he is entrapped or set up. He was not. He was just caught.
So how does the Ukie military transport these wonder weapons across Ukraine to the trenches in the east?
How do they train the men to use them whilst under constant arty and missile barrages?
He’s definitely wrong. Ukrainian Army surrendering in droves and taking hundreds of casualties daily from cannon and rocket artillery. Russian force structure has not changed that much from the old Soviet days as far as artillery goes. Ya’ll should read up on the RAG, DAG and CAG and how they were/are employed in ground operations. Bet I’m the only voice on this board that can speak from any experience with Russian doctrine (Allons!). Russia has almost total air dominance with no hope that that will change. The weaknesses of the Javelin, Stinger and other western Man portable guided missiles have been IDed, disseminated to RF forces and they have successfully adapted their combat TTPs. Oh, by the way, I’ve got a couple of good pictures of Javelins and Stingers out of their MILSPEC Level A packaging and with their production lot numbers and delivery dates visible. I’ve seen a small handful, all past their shelf life and if you wonder how I would know what that is, guess what I do for a living? A great video of some poor captured Ukrainian private doing what all privates in all armies do when asked – tell it like it is, bitching about how few of these marque western missiles they could actually get to work and admitting sheepishly that he and his battle buddies kind of drifted off in the 8 hours of classroom training they got and didn’t retain anything at all from the “what to do in the event of a misfire” block of instruction. Ukraine all dug in are going to get hit with big bag of dicks every day until they cry “uncle” and go to Siberia to dig holes and work in the tractor factory 6 days a week.
Rangers Lead the Way!
He has probably gotten tired of sifting through the constant onslaught of lies and has had a few days of doubt. Personally, I expect at least 50% of the advanced weapons to make it to Ukie armed forces, but probably not in the Donbass cauldrons.
While I think most of the good thinkers in the US and UK military have retired or left service in disgust over the last 20 years, there are still some capable of learning and adapting. And the CIA certainly has decades of experience in sneaking weapons into other countries. They probably think a 50% attrition is a great tradeoff, because now those weapons will fatten the coffers of the MIC.
What I don’t expect is that those troops who get the “advanced” heavy weapons will have time to use them long enough to become expert enough in using them to wreak havoc on the Allied forces. That takes months and lots of practice.
And every time they fire those things, it creates another chance for counterbattery fire to find them, or Special Forces, or a drone, or a helicopter, or a fighter jet, or a satellite.
Getting off a few shots and then scurrying away and hiding for days is not going to slow down the defeat. A painful irritation, which will only harden the resolve of the Allied forces.
Ritter perhaps has also lost sight of the fact that the real fighting manpower available to Ukraine is already in uniform and stationed somewhere in the East or South or around Kiev. Heavy weapons are not going to help if most of your actual fighting men are dead, wounded, captured, or severely demoralized.
And it seems many ignore the fact that there are 5 to 10 support personnel for each actual fighting soldier. Ukraine may have 200,000 in uniform, but how many are actual fighting soldiers? And how many of those fighting soldiers are still alive and on the front lines? Not nearly enough.
Sure, a cook can fire a gun and so can the guy who drives trucks or works on repairing equipment, but not nearly as well. And which type is doing most of the dying right now? It’s mostly the fighting men, not the support staff.
Isn’t going to be a lot of the fighting men left to effectively use those heavy weapons for the time it takes for Russia to destroy them.
Ritter is directionally correct – the war party is gearing up for a massive escalation in the conflict. The war party is using the Kiev military only as cannon fodder in a holding action.
The big military battles will take place next spring and summer. The war party is raising and training massive ground forces right now for such a counter offensive in Europe.
We should also expect many other military actions and coup D’Etats all over the world as the war party escalates escalates escalates
The war party is determined to make this little conflict a global war lasting years and years and years
A lot of what Andrei is talking about on the operational level in the US Army is covered in FM 101-5.
S1, S2, S3 and so on historically come from the Napoleonic staff structure but much has also been copied from the German model. Substitute the S for a G at a higher echelon.
A lot has changed in US Army doctrine over the years as a more brigade model has been adopted because it is percieved as being more flexible and modular. Rather than deploy a whole division higher command can just choose to deploy the brigade level components that are needed for a particular mission.
The Russians seem to have maintained the concept of combined arms at the heart of their doctrine.
IMHO in near peer opposition the combined arms arraignment is vastly superior because there is much better coordination combined with overwhelming fire power.
Be quite a different world unless people in USA go on a massive dieting binge and stop using fossil fuels and easy credit. Should be quite interesting to watch living standards in West crash to 1972 levels as Maslow’s Pyramid. returns to its Physiological Base
The problem with this is the journey there. It’s a war of attrition economically. Russia is committed. The west is fractious & time isn’t on its side. If you suspect the west aims at “next spring and summer” for the fruition of this war plan, then we should ask ourselves if this attrition can last that long without a) Europeans rejecting the status quo, and Ukrainians in turn rejecting the current regime, and b) Russia securing a binding agreement as a result. I think the US/UK position will remain as obstinate as it’s been in the last few years & during the would-be negotiations, but… if Europe/Ukraine/Russia move in the direction of a & b above, it would mean Europe taking a foreign policy stance against their Anglo overlords.
I think we watch carefully how sentiments shift, especially re: German economy but also in the periphery (NATO expansion, Turkey’s real agenda, etc.) and see if the Anglo-puppets in the EU Commission & in the German Green coalition continue to lose their grip on the narrative. The public is slow, so it’s the trend that matters, and I don’t think US/UK/EU Commission clout among the public has any way to go but down, between now and next spring.
I am old enough to remember the scenario in Iraq. All the US disinfo to sell their war. If you listen to Ritter go on about his involvement therein, he goes on and on with these fantastical, near hysterical rationalization talking points about Saddam (former US ally, former CIA) as the big bad. The ebil genius. Blah Blah Blah. Ritter was obviously a “Team America” Fk Yeah player and he is still trying to make excuses ….Like listen to him go on about how his beloved Marines held their “war criminals” to account. He sounds like a 16 year old ROTC kid on roids half the time. No doubt Ritter would hang Julian Assange for treason. I got no love bro. Zero. None.
1) no new tanks/heavy artillery arrive in Ukraine. Heavy stuff built now will arrive to other closer countries. Those countries will send more of their current stocks while getting newer ones
2) Ukraine will pay (lend-lease) for the material that comes from closer countries, and with technology closer to the one Ukrainians are used to. It’s been said NATO guys are doing an effort to finds Soviet era stuff in other countries
3) Russia monitors all deliveries and when a big enough concentration of material exists, there goes the Kalibr and his friends to destroy all of it, it doesn’t even matter on what part of Ukraine it is stored.
4) the moment NATO personel sets foot on Ukraine in military targets, they’re dead. That already happened on a training facility near Poland’s border when Biden was visiting. And that’s why the current B plan for NATO is to send small batches of Ukrainian cannon fodder to be trained in other countries.
5) Russia started in a blitzkrieg style until Kiev and other big cities were surrounded in a few days (occuping an area equivalent to UK), for 2 purposes: force the star of negotiations (try to make to Ukraine what Azerbaijan recently made to Armenia: conquer more land without fighting), and conquering a land bridge for Crimea in two oblasts: Kherson and Zaporijia.
6) everything was going according to plan when the Bucha propaganda happened and the collective West forbade Ukraine from accepting a deal.
In exchange for peace and EU, Russia would get all that it wanted: neutrality, Donbass independency, Crimea, etc.
These were all legitimate and reasonable terms, but the West wanted more war…
7) then Russia announced a Phase 2. It took so long to start that I think it was actually Plan B: to get more territories for Russia, in a slower way in Donbass to avoid Russian casualties, and to try to effectively demilitarize without a repetition of Mariupol’s scenario. The logic is this: since now those cities will be a part of Russia, and Russia will be the one paying for the rebuild, it makes sense to try to do the war in the countryside, instead of storming the bigger cities in the same way. The Severodonetsk-Lisichansk front/encirclement in the coming weeks will tell if I’m right or wrong about this point.
8) if all Rusdian goals are achieved by the time winter comes (and I’m still not sure if Odessa is a goal or if thr announcement of it being a goal was just a psy-op to fix some troops on that side of Ukraine), either europe lifts sanctions and gives back the 300 billion that were stolen, or Russia will make the mother of counter-sanctions: zero gas and oil for the enemies. Europe will then have to choose between imploding or accepting, while for Russia that just means a temporarily not so big external surplus.
9) that will also be the ideal timing for Eurasia/SCO/BRICS to announce the international alternative currency that will accelerate the de-dollarization, that will be followed also by the collapse of USA’s economy. And if the FED decides to print more imaginary dollars, it’s only gonna postpone a bit and make the fall even bigger.
10) and then, the 21st century new world order, a mulipolar one, will be born, now finally with an international community of sovereign states that respect each other, and trade relations that are not based in colonialism, imposition of western ideology, coups, illegal danctions, or NATO invasions.
Or this might take a while longer… But in the mid and long term, point 10 is inevitable. All empires come to an end, and not even the empire of lies can lie its way out of this. There will be no “evacuation” from Western Azovstal…
Jo, it could be like that.
The key word is “decommunization,” in the sense in which Putin used it.
This is also supported by the fact that the USA is reopening its embassies in Kiev, as was recently reported.
Ukraine without the industrial centers east of the Dnieper, and if possible without access to the Black Sea, can no longer become as dangerous as it has become, or threatened to become, especially in the course of the last 8 years.
Never thought I’d see the day when news anchors/lackeys on MSM in the UK (BBC-Sky News-ITV ) would be openly crying almost hysterical regarding how Russia may treat Mariupol’s Nazi POWs.
Is this not an admission or open declaration of being a Nazi sympathiser?
As I’ve stated once before, this is not just a slap in the face, but a kick in the nether regions to those Brits who gave their lives in WW11, and their families, not to forget, the very few still alive, many wounded, memory.
Western Analysis: Just because the Azov fighters were escorted in handcuffs without their weapons to enemy territory doesn’t mean they surrendered.
We heard a few months back that the regular UAF command was pissed with Azov not following orders, even fired a missile at them. So how come Zelensky’s bleating about their return and not regular POWs? The obvious answer is that this Azov, like Hayat-al-Sham (HTS) is the pet monkey of US-NATO.
It’s like the Chechens going solo, doing their own thing and not coordinating tactical manoeuvres with RF & Donbass forces. Wouldn’t happen! SMO requires absolute professionalism among the groupings. The results to date are proof of what Mr Martyanov preaches from the pulpit.
When UAF commanders are deserting their units, leaving semi-trained soldiers to their fate then it’s white flag time.
Finally, Ritter;s been nobbled, been read the Julian Assange riot-act. 10 days ago he said Russia could win the war whenever they chose and only their determination to avoid as many civilian casualties was the main reason for delaying the inevitable.
I have spent the last 24 hour listening to the Australian ANC journalist raping the english language in their pathetic attempts to avoid using the “surrender” word and turn the capture of the nazi war criminals into some sort of Ukrainian victory. It is beyond sickening. I grew up with the children of soldiers who fought that scourge in WW2. Those quisling scum can thank their lucky stars those men are no longer with us. There is no excuse for the total ignorance that is on open display by the Western Media.
The Russian revelations of Ukrainian Nazi war crimes in full graphic detail can not come soon enough.
It seems to me that drones are now playing a big role now in modern combat. The ability of the Russian drones to seek out and find the dugout Ukrainian troops and therefore relaying to the artillery their location is huge IMO.
Yes, a big upgrade on homing pigeons of the 13th century.
Yes drones can be used to pinpoint enemy manoeuvres and locations but they can also be the first line of defence, that is, weaponised.
Remember the Houthis gift of a swarm, no 3 swarms of drones (up to 50 from memory ) with warheads that took out Saudi Aramco energy assets.
I can easily see Iran sending armed drones in there thousands should ZATO become any more belligerent.
Imagine what seriously armed drone swarms could do to an aircraft carrier?
The US model of force projection is hopelessly outdated.
I have been thinking for a long time now, that swarms of networked drones can dramatically change the find-fix-finish aspect of war. Combine this with hypersonics, and aircraft carriers, for instance, become little more than sitting ducks.
This moment is turning out to be a crucial moment for those of us in Western countries who are indeed paying attention.
As for Scott Ritter, let’s not forget that he was a former USMC Officer before the UN Weapons inspector job, it will be very very difficult for him to admit intellectually himself that the country of his birth(United States) has lost this round and very handedly at that. This will unfortunately not allow Scott to admit to himself that this may be the beginning of the Western unipolar rule because it would bring up too many uncomfortable psychological issues.
He can’t admit US/Western military equipment in the end doesn’t mean much of a difference to a Russian army who is ready and willing to fight.
Russia has already won militarily, it’s just a matter of time before the whole UA collapses.
” This will unfortunately not allow Scott to admit to himself that this may be the beginning of the Western unipolar rule because it would bring up too many uncomfortable psychological issues.
He can’t admit US/Western military equipment in the end doesn’t mean much of a difference to a Russian army who is ready and willing to fight.”
This is pure speculation/mind reading/armchair psychiatrist.
Worse than armchair general!
Perhaps you are ex-US military, doing a bit of projecting.
Doggy’s analysis of Ritter is spot on.
Russian engineers helped build the US great Northern Railroad. On time. On budget with no eminent domain stealing land from farmers. Contrast with the Yankee Union-Pacific. A major boondoggle.
It is possible that hearts are being reset , recast , and that good people are waking from sleep, looking around, finding painful epiphanies that also bring grace.
Patriotic Americans now have to struggle with unpleasant truth. Some will deny truth , cling to old sureties. Even the original Donbass merry men, Strelyakovs 52, had the problem of recruiting half hearted transactional fair weather friends. Ukrainians who sympathized , but… waited on events before committal. They prevailed. Donbass is FREE.
Human nature is ubiquitous. Heroes are rare.
Contrition and grace are powerful allies that snap damnation doesnt help.
Good men are noticing. I see a wonderful reset, patience now.
“It is possible that hearts are being reset, recast, and that good people are waking from sleep, looking around, finding painful epiphanies that also bring grace. Patriotic Americans now have to struggle with unpleasant truth. Some will deny truth, cling to old sureties…Good men are noticing. I see a wonderful reset, patience now.”
Well said. 9/11 did it for me and took years to psychologically process. Takes awhile to admit, understand and then come to grips with the evil running the US. Especially when you were born and have lived here your entire life. Opens up the rabbit hole that never seems to have and end.
Unpleasant to confront reality at times. Whole reason “white lies” exist. Truth can be very painful/uncomfortable. Many will choose to shy away from these unpleasant truths. But believe you are correct there is an awakening happening right now.
Appreciate your observations and comment…
Thumbs up to PH Gattey: “Good men are noticing”.
And taking courage.
Reminds me of a little book called, “Who Moved the Stone?”. The author said, it doesn’t matter which power moved the stone, whether it was done by angels or humans. What matters is that, once the stone had been moved, good men began noticing and taking courage.
Good men — and women. It was a woman who was first to come to mourn, and saw that the stone had been moved, and heard a voice calling, Why seek ye the living among the dead?.
This theme has great appeal. There are dangerous forces at play with all this computer crap. With the ability to inform and misinform in one neat package, we need time away from these devices to stay sane. If we got raised to be sane in the first place.
As for Ritter. Those folks who live both sides of any particular argument get my attention. No human is perfect, especially those who deem themselves qualified to judge others. Guilty as charged.
“Good men are noticing. I see a wonderful reset, patience now.”
Catching glimpses too, humanity will progress in spite, or perhaps because of all the corruption.
Those criminals stand informed. The sooner you plead for amnesty, the better it might go.
My gut tells me Mr.Ritter is a double agent. pretending to be pro-Russian, until shit really hits, than reverse roles.
The man should not be completely trusted given his past credentials.
That ancient saying….’Actions speak louder than his words.’ should be heeded.
Scott Ritter didn’t actually say that.
He has consistently said that the “heavy weaponry” would never reach the Donbass,
and would almost certainly be destroyed before it reached anywhere useful.
Can I say, as an ex-British Army Officer of the eighties,
that I am appalled and deeply ashamed to hear my Prime Minister
actually QUOTING Churchill to the Zelensky regime’s ‘Parliament’
–speaking of “their finest hour”–
when he MUST KNOW that he is addressing an Interior Ministry,
and a Ukrainian Officer Corps, that has been infiltrated by
the direct descendants of Bandera’s Nazis.
Churchill abhorred and hated the Nazis so much,
that he was prepared to pay an enormous price
–the virtual destruction of Britain and her overseas empire–
to defeat them.
I cannot believe I would ever see this happening
as I say, and my regimental comrades are equally appalled.
It will come to be seen as a stain upon my country,
that these meretricious morons have so lied and misled the British people.
I agree with your analysis, and consider it correct.
This campaign will come to be seen as a brilliant exemplar of manoeuvre warfare,
using feint and diversion, and as peculiarly gentle,
compared to our own recent campaigns.
The military-civilian ratio of losses shows how hard the Russians have tried
–and what a price they have paid–
to save civilian lives.
Russia has been absolutely correct in this SMO,
and I say this as an officer who trained (like Scott Ritter) to defend against the Red Army.
I considered us correct then,
but you are clearly correct now.
I am ashamed of the idiots who represent Britain, now
That’s it, they don’t represent Britain for all their Brexit bravado. They represent a minute %age called The Establishment and more often than not follow blindly the satanic empire of the USA into illegal wars/colour revolutions.
Jonathan TOckley. I cannot emphasise enough how much I agree with you. For the past 10yrs I have been deeply ashamed of being British but never more so than now. I was utterly aghast when Ben Wallace in his speech at the War Museum called the Russians Nazis. My Grandparents fought in the War (1 died) to prevent Fascism and Nazi ideology ever rearing it’s ugly head in the world again. I never thought I would see the day in my lifetime that EU formerly occupied countries would be not only championing the most corrupt country in eu but also supporting the Nazis and denying it’s actually existence when all the evidence is to the contrary. God Bless Russia and President Putin. This true evil must be eradicated from the world.
Very well said, Canadian veteran who lost two Uncles during World war II
Yesterday Norway celebrated our national day. I used to flag on the 1st, also- after Libya – my flag-pole has been standing empty.
Churchill and Beaverbrooke actually loved Hitler, that is well documented.
Their problem was their Golem was supposed to attack the USSR, and instead the military first turned west to cut off a stab in the back. Churchill only then went screaming to FDR for urgent help. FDR said yes, on one condition – no more colonies. Churchill nearly had a stroke, but acceded.
Meanwhile CH4 has a new documentary :
‘Edward VIII’s treachery is mind-boggling’: Viewers of Britain’s Traitor King question ‘why Duke of Windsor wasn’t executed for treason’ after he told Nazis to keep bombing England during WWII
After the Nazi defeat Churchill’s Operation Unthinkable, to send the remains of the Wehrmacht AGAIN to attack the USSR, was fortunately deep-sixed by the US.
For sure some Nato loons are dusting off Operation Unthinkable to get Germany AGAIN to the Ostfront. Good luck with that!
Yes, Rudolph Hess did not fly to England for nothing and the so called Battle of Dunkirk where Germany essentially let the British escape. The English Navy also helped Germany by destroying most of the French Navy who already surrendered, a massive war crime. His complete betrayal of the Chetniks in Yugoslavia instead installing a Communist mole Tito.
Here is another tidbit of information about Churchill. He may have been born out of wedlock from an affair of his mother with King Milan of Serbia. King Milan was a womanizer and did have an affair with Churchill’s mother.
Here is a link about Churchill the lovechild of the King of Serbia
I did my year of “war” in Vietnam, having been sucker enough to enlist post-Gulf of Tonkin, domino theory, Boy Scout indoctrination about “doing my duty to God and Country.” It quickly became apparent that US Operational Art over there, as far as I could see it from a helicopter unit, was “transfer US real-economy wealth to a few US (now Supra-and-post-national) corporations., and “kill everything that moves.”
Your presentation was way over my head. I guess, having been born a WASP into a soon-to-decllne Empire, about all I can hope for is that the end state of Russian operational art. for the place I and my kids have to live out our lives, is not complete physical and economic decimation. Though what Russia, the surprising “mouse that roared,” can do or would want to do about the murderous and deceitful corporate/political structure that rules the dying Empire, to keep the people who run things here from dragging all of us into a Gotterdammerung of a “burn pit,” I have no idea. And from the Russian perspective, I can see that demilitarizing and denazifying the Empire, as per Ukraine, might be a desired end state to keep the beast from rising up and making trouble again.
I’m hoping that the Russians will have perceived ways and means to bring about a more commensal future for this species, but today’s winners have historically been next era’s hubris-inebriated and democidal monsters. “We shall just have to wait and see…”
But thanks for your contribution to potential understanding by us mopes of some important aspects of the real world outside the propaganda shell we are mostly confined to.
Excellent video. Required viewing IMHO.
In his cogent monologue regarding operational art, Andrei has just provided us with some basic knowledge with which to judge the evolution or progress of not just the SMO but any military operation, anywhere.
War is war; same nature, many different characters. War serves a political purpose.
To understand the SMO we need to understand what the Russian political leadership say about the operation in the Ukraine.
In ‘Phase 2’, the object is to secure the Donbass; and that is exactly what the RF military is doing — destroying Ukrainian forces and war potential.
In Phase 2, there is no time constraint, no tight schedules; that is precisely how RF ground forces are operating — using their time to clear settlements, evacuate civilians, execute ‘civilian-military’ operations, demining, securing hazardous structures/plants, etc. In short they are clearing the Donbass bit by bit, day by day, to ensure a liberated village, town or expanse of the Steppe is ‘clean’ before being absorbed into the LDNR. The results of such similar use of their time can be seen in Kherson, now using Russian currency, car plates, telephone numbers, school syllabus, and very soon formally becoming part of the Russian Federation.
Like many, I’m puzzled by Scott Ritter’s change of heart. He understands ‘operational art’ and RF military better than most. Most likely he has been getting faulty information.
Andrei’s reference to the notion of ‘hybrid war’ — as a new type of war –, as Bullsh**t I’m certain will bring a smile to many faces; the notion is as fake as ‘new-generation war’ initially thought about and embellished by western analysts and surprisingly embraced by US military from whence it spread far and wide to the extent that even one of our favourite authors, the remarkable Pepe Escobar, uses it. But he is not alone — I read that the doyen of diplomacy, Sergey Lavrov, also used it in one of his latest speeches, although to be fair neither he nor Escobar have military backgrounds.
As for Azovstal, here’s Graham Phillip’s video report on the ‘Surrender of the Nazis’.
The beginning of the collapse of the West’s narrative on the Ukraine, if you ask me.
Andrei’s always fantastic, but I really appreciate this one. I’m not a military man nor even a military history buff, but I am a student of history and you can’t learn history without including war. We don’t have any examples of a combined arms war where the public got nearly up to the minute information. Iraq in 2003 had a bit of it, but it was highly filtered. And when things stopped going according to plan the DoD shut off the information tap.
Reading comment sections and social media subjects us all to the ups and downs of tactical level actions. And a lot of prolific commenters at various sites become emotionally directed by these ups and downs. Russia loses a tactical situation (or appears to) and the sky starts falling. Not to mention concern trolling.
I come from a position of geopolitical analysis (I almost got sucked into the Blob as a young man), and while I admit to being engrossed in the tactical minutia of the conflict, I look for other clues about how the larger conflict is progressing. If Russia starts to lose confidence in the progress of the operation, I would expect to see specific escalations. Announcements of more troops, threats to cut off gas/oil, beginning to bomb cities indiscriminately. The same goes for more political actions on the level of grand strategy.
But from the 30,000 foot view, Russia looks calm and patient. It doesn’t even really retaliate against economic sanctions. The west, however, looks absolutely panicked and unprepared for each new development. It can’t get the sanctions in order and the negotiates them in public. It didn’t set NATO enlargement up with care, and again things go sideways publicly. It’s a s**tshow from top to bottom.
Even militarily. I think it’s clear that the US assumed how Russia would act and that assumption was based on what the US would do if it were Russia. Or, there really was a plan ready for a Donbas-crimea offensive so nobody bothered considering Russia striking first. If Russia repeated the US playbook from Iraq, Russia would have a large scale insurgency armed with excellent weaponry for a large scale insurgency. It would have raced to Kiev and left a lot of VSU in the field. Azov and similar might make good partisans/insurgents. Russia didn’t do that (and that’s why the feint worked so well, the feint was what was expected) and now all the plans are out the window. There was no plan B. There was no questioning of assumptions during planning.
Those last two sentences sum up most US behavior of the last 30 years. Even though that sort of “planning” has failed again and again, military, political and economic no lesson is ever learned because the people who wrote the failed plans never experience consequences. Now there are 30 years of consequences due, with interest. That’s why western leadership is panicking. It isn’t admitting those consequences and preparing to cope with them, it’s trying to get bigger and bigger in hopes that it can win with a bet on 00. And that behavior is showing all the way down to the tactical level.
Yes very good observation.
Thanks, Mr. Martyanov, for the interesting educational presentation, Operational Planning 101.
The western people’s are not going to be very happy with their “owners” when the western economies start to implode. Due to self inflicted blowback from their paper tiger sanctions. The TRUTH will set them free, if it’s not too late. Russia is handing N.A.T.O. their asses right now. The E.U. is bluffing, their industry runs on Ural, not Alberta dil-bit. It’s surreal watching the controlled destruction of the western economies. It’s not the people necessarily, but our owners who are whipping up Russia-hate. Pure evil.
It took me awhile to get used to this guys voice and would you call it dialect, an accent from a US state I am not familiar with, I am a bit hard of hearing anyhow, but after 3-4 video listens I got it and am really liking this top notch thinking and holy cow his English is really very good. I like to read rather than listen, see then I get to adjust the speed or the repeat, Andrei’s delivery is kinda like a gattling gun. interesting times we are all living through. hopefully. living through if this Beast can be tamed it looks like it is close to happening now. The collapse of US hegemony. Europe just did a Jim Jones Jonestown Kool Aid mutual suicide. I thought that would never happen, they would have to break with the US. Survival would dictate. and still might. hard times. coming for somebody. and liv’n in the US, that could be me. This money is gett’n Funny.
As much as I try to understand Russia and see her point of view, which I have to say I agree with virtually 109%, Scott and I are still US-American, culturally influenced and yet at odds with the “majority” US cultural narrative. I’ll give him a mulligan on his epiphany and try to understand his perspective, which is, I think, that the NeoCons will bleed the US and fight the Russians to the last Scott’s-Irish redneck jarhead and that includes Ítalo-Russos adopted by that warrior culture. It is a culture being replaced by the Ivy League lawyers and poli-sci majors who don’t know shit about struggle in life.
I’ve had an easy life, but not as easy as those bastards in DC. I want my children and grandchildren to compete with the Russians in the Olympics not on the battlefield.
Ritter is being blackmailed, there is no epiphany. Look up on his past and you’ll see he’s already been framed for talking against the US governement. He got handed a script.
But thems in DC needs to go…
…also…Scott Ritter is someone, he made this planet safer – for a while.
He is also someone, who IS CONSTANTLY CORRECT. GEOPOLITICALLY, MILITARILY. Humanely.
I disagree with him about the his hatred of the “nazis”
He has bought into the idea of his grand-dad fighting the krouts…back then.
That is not what we have now.
Neither the Krouts are Germans, neither the Russkies are the CCCP.
We are driven by other means…it seems…
He understands firepower. Also – he has been under HEAVY fire. Back when. I can not – but to give him 13 out of 10.
He da man.
In a recent interview he expressed, that Vicky Neudleman and her cohorts are third line players…in their third straight executive progression…in their third consequitive gvmnt…by mistake right?
How does this….work
Mr Ritter thinx of Vicky Nuddleman as a minor sister to the hungergames – all over our fair lands.
Who is then driving this HATRED – because thats what it is if not a Nuddleman?
Is it You Mr Ritter?
Guess not…but all these ex khazarian jews wrightinjg all their expert white papers on Putin killing white lgmbqwt ukranians while faxing all their expert papers on white terrorism on the LMGQWST….mass murders by …….other races….
27 people killed in Chicago alone this weekend. Most by accident. In Novgorod? New York?
Mr Ritter – care to comment?
How would You arrange Your battallions?
I don’t think Scott Ritter’s arguments were fairly recounted and effectively countered. I’m thinking mainly of his comparison to the battle of Moscow, which he characterized as trading a huge number of lives in order to gain the time needed to replace lost effectives with a new army of trained effectives. The idea is that while Russia takes its good time to grind down the Ukrainian army in the east, a new army is being raised, equipped, and trained by Nato in western Ukraine, Germany, and the US, faster than Russia’s missiles and air power can degrade it. Ritter fears that unless Russia acts decisively to increase its military commitment to Ukraine (mobilization, declaration of war), it will find itself later this year or next faced with a new, mobile, better equipped version of the army it is destroying now in the Donbas. The Russians will defeat it, but at a major price in blood and scarce resources, thus giving the Americans success in their effort to seriously weaken Russia. That’s Ritter’s point. I don’t think it’s very strong, but I don’t think Andrei addressed it or countered it in the video.
I watched the videos of the Russian military exercises and was bowled over by the power and efficiency as well as integration of ground, sea, air and cyber operation. I thought then: “this is a highly trained, indomitable force” and I believe that fact is being demonstrated in a controlled way without fanfare in Ukraine.
From the business section of Galician Times:
“Poland and Ukraine have announced a joint venture in Lvov, PUSM, Inc. (PolyUke Scrap Metal Incorporated). Their press release cited the prospect of excellent short-term profits via the recent passage of the U.S. aid bill in Washington, D.C.”
That’s in fact an excellent business proposition! With the west delivering huge stockpiles of obsoleted arms and Russia converting those to scrap metal in no time, it makes absolute sense to recover the scrap metal for something usefull.
well lets wonder if this one still shoots straight. m777a mishap offloading
Does anyone have a link to where Scott states that? Because I remember him saying a short while ago that its did not matter the influx of weapons, Ukraine had already lost.
Yeah, what he said.
That the amount of the hardware will only prolong the festivities – and the number of the morted.
will not to change the outcome.
Nevermind – we have many MANY african/asian/and so forth immigrants to help us into our lands.
That is what our army is for – watch out for racism…😱
This man always has a good analysis on the conflict. He reminds me a lot of Nightvision’s style:
Not likely any of your heard/read this speech before…
Care of Evan Lohning:
The Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) is reporting as of 12 May that they had 1,700 soldiers killed and 7,020 wounded (4.13-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) out of a supposed original strength of 20,000. The average week losses during SMO been around 790. Last weeks however they losses been around 500.
Rest in peace brothers.
See ya soon.
I`ll even the score a bit…
Ah Gen Westmoreland and the infamous “body count”
Nah, that was not it.
Add the above to the 15 000 from 2014.
You had been presented an official count of the dead and wounded from the DPR. from the start of the Spec Ops.
No body count. Not that.
A Farewell to brothers in arms…
The surrender of Ukrainian “soldiers” from the bowels of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol took place at night as well.
The commander of the “Vostok” brigade of the Internal Troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the DPR, Alexander Khodakovsky, confirmed our information that the surrender continued after dark until 22:00, about 600 militants came out through his section.
By the way, remember this guy’s name, Alexander Khodakovsky, for he is the guy who negotiated the unconditional surrender of the Ukrainians.
The Ukrainians are surrendering to DPR, and are pows of LDR, rather than Russia. Ze appears to have forgotten that. For those who can read Russian, https://t.me/s/aleksandr_skif (you can, of course, use a translator)
DPR losses have been very high if comparing original strength of 20,000 but more likely with around 40,000 strength now it gives the losses little bit over 20%. Using that 20% to RF strength of 150,000 would give losses 30,000 but likely RF loss percentage is lower, e.g 10%, giving 15,000. With 1 to 4 ratio battle deaths would have been 3,000 and 12,000 wouded.
What are the latest official RF military losses?
Why would you even want to know?
I am devastated – by losses on both sides.
Mechanized warfare is hell on earth.
I want to bring it to Washington DC, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Manhattan, Poconos…you are WELCOME to the party. City of London? 8am. ready for ya.
Sorry, did not mean to address You…it is just…hey…
I do not think there is a complete official list.
I am afraid it will stay so for a long while….
The legend of “Azov” ended ingloriously
The surrender of the selected Nazis of the Azov Regiment, blocked at the Azovstal plant (banned in Russia), began. During the first day, according to the journalists working there, more than two hundred people came out with their hands up. Half of them are wounded.
At the same time, the commander of the Azov National Regiment, banned in Russia, Denis Prokopenko, already without “armor” (weapons), without “armor”, without chevrons and insignia, some pathetic, on the “pure” Lviv (Czech-Polish-Gypsy – Hungarian-Ukrainian) move, which half of Ukrainians do not understand, pushed a confusing, nervous and vague speech about his “doubts”, “responsibility”, “critical thinking”, “plan B” and a bunch of other things, and at the end he said: “ In order to save lives, the entire Mariupol garrison fulfills the approved decision of the high military command and hopes for the support of the Ukrainian people…”
What kind of decision this was, in the evening Zelensky explained to the Ukrainians just as vaguely: “It’s not an easy day. But this day, like all the others, is aimed at protecting our country and our people. Thanks to the actions of the Ukrainian military – the Armed Forces of Ukraine, intelligence, as well as the negotiating group, the International Committee of the Red Cross and the UN, we hope that we will be able to save the lives of our guys. I want to emphasize that Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes alive. This is our principle. I think that every adequate person will understand these words.
The words “surrender” never came out. But everyone understood. In Ukraine, there was a howl and gnashing of teeth. “Zrada!” And the “Azovites” immediately happily went out with their hands up. It turned out that the “heroes” no longer want to die for Ukraine. On the air of “Vremya Pokazhet” with Artem Sheinin, I said that “Azov” is pulled out like a pike on a lure – to the point of complete exhaustion, and then they simply pull it out by the gills into the boat.
We did not storm Azovstal. It would be too valuable a gift to these characters – death in battle. Therefore, the President of Russia ordered not to storm the plant. The Nazis were simply driven into the basements, like ghouls into a crypt, and they began to suppress them with fire and steel. Three weeks later they went to surrender.
And the living, surrendered, miserable “Azov” is a terrible blow to the legend of the iron “Azov”, it is a shame and contempt. After all, Azov is the elite guard of Bandera Kyiv. Elite elite! On which they always equaled, which they imitated, to serve in which it was especially honorable. “Azov” is a kind of “light SS” of Bandera Ukraine. A whole movement, a cult with a full set of paraphernalia, dogmas and even its own “creed”.
It was here, in Mariupol, that their military history began, Mariupol has been the capital of Azov all these years. And the inglorious end of “Azov”, the shameful surrender – in the same Mariupol – is the complete collapse of their entire cult. In an essay about Mariupol tankers in Vzglyad, I wrote that Azov was driven into Azovstal like a viper into a bucket, from which it can no longer get out, can’t sting. And now the denouement has come.
Now they are waiting for interrogations, and very many – arrests. Now they will pathetically and cynically fight for their lives, hand over their commanders and “assets”, disown the crimes committed, ask for mercy and indulgence. Now they are waiting for public trials, in which they will have to look into the eyes of the people they tortured, who were bullied. And there is some supreme justice in this! Donetsk Nuremberg.
Once upon a time at the Donetsk airport, just as casually and calmly, they ended the legend of “cyborgs”, with which the stubborn Bandera “Ukrainianism” was worn for half a year, now we are ending the legend of “Azov”.
military expert, member of the Izborsk Club
Perhaps modeled on the USR War Crimes Tribunal for the Japanese Unit 731 Bio-weapons at Khabarovsk in 1946?
Then the low-levels were prosecuted while the big shots were spirited out to Fort Detrick, today’s bio-weapon center.
This has to be seen by everyone! Laurence Brayard interview.
The biggest national disgrace is hidden from Ukrainians
There was no capture of the militants of the national battalion “Azov” in Mariupol, they assure in Kyiv. There was just an “evacuation” (who knows where), and this demagogic turn was gladly picked up not only by Ukrainian, but also by the world media. An attempt to hide the shameful truth about the situation on the fronts rhymes with the way the Kiev leadership explains the catastrophic situation in the economy.
“If I had the Pravda newspaper, the world would never know about Waterloo!” Napoleon Bonaparte said in a well-known Soviet joke. The Pravda newspaper has long been gone, but the charm of anecdotes lies precisely in the fact that such trifles are insignificant for him, they are based on plots that do not depend much on specific historical conditions.
Today, the talking heads on Ukrainian TV (President Zelensky, speakers of the Ministry of Defense, the Security Service of Ukraine, political scientists – no matter who) act as the collective Pravda.
In the role of the next Waterloo “Azovstal” with the militants of the “Azov” regiment who settled there (mostly). As well as fighters of several brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, border guards and, as was constantly repeated in the media, an unclear number of either mercenaries or instructors. Who really was and whether he was – we will find out very soon.
The myth of the heroic 82-day defense is already in full swing in the Ukrainian media, although in fact, since the end of March, this defense has consisted mainly of attempts by the “Azovites” to break out of the encirclement. First by helicopters, then with the help of Macron and Erdogan. And recently, they have tried to involve in this generally everyone who they just remembered: Israel, the UN, Doctors Without Borders, the Pope and Elon Musk.
As a result, first on May 16, and then on May 17, we saw what we should have seen. Part of the Azov militants and Ukrainian army servicemen left the Azovstal dungeons, walked along a corridor designated by the RF Armed Forces, were searched and sorted (the wounded to the hospital, the rest to filtration points) and left for captivity.
Not evacuation, not exit, not “extraction”, but captivity. A simple, albeit sad, Russian word. But we saw it. The Ukrainian audience was shown and told something completely different.
What Ukrainian emitters are broadcasting about
The Ukrainian language also has the word “captivity” (“full”). But Ukrainian speakers do their best to avoid using it.
The first was, in fact, the commander of “Azov”. On the evening of May 16, he, as if preempting questions, announced that he was fulfilling the decision of the high military command. Okay, but what’s the solution? We know, but the Ukrainians, who watched his appeal on the Telegram channel, could not understand anything and wrote directly about it.
Next was Zelensky. He remembered the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine, the UN, the ICRC, and finally: “… the military was taken to the occupied territory for further exchange.”
Who took them out? Not a word.
But we found out that this is called “an operation to save the lives of the defenders of Azovstal.” The Russians think they have captured someone. In fact, there is a military operation, put aside the panic. And not just an operation – but an operation of the military intelligence of Ukraine (as officially stated)! And these messages were picked up not only by the media controlled by Kyiv, but also by the most authoritative (until recently) world information platforms, for example, CNN. They also do not use the word “captivity” – only “evacuation”!
But since it is not so easy to ignore the video of the capture of the “Azovites”, Zelensky’s office launched several versions of what happened at once. Some talking heads tell the Ukrainians that this is actually a victory, others that those who surrendered should have been immediately exchanged for captured servicemen of the RF Armed Forces. But the insidious Putin “threw” the naive Zelensky. But before us, in fact, the national shame of Ukraine. The people who promised to fight the Russians to the last drop of their blood ingloriously surrendered. And now this shame is trying to gloss over the Kiev leadership.
Of course, you can laugh at this – and often deservedly so. But this chorus: “not surrender, but execution of an order”, “not surrender, but evacuation”, “not surrender, but exchange” – this is precisely the very newspaper Pravda from the joke.
The consciousness of the layman is able to focus on the topic for several days. Kyiv’s calculation is that by the end of the week everyone will safely forget that “Azov” surrendered – if this is not reminded. And who will remind you if the entire information space in Ukraine has been cleared ahead of time and is completely under control?
It’s the same in economics.
The surrender of Azov is not the only such example. In April, we closely followed the deteriorating economic situation in Ukraine. Then its top leadership, represented by Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko and President Zelensky, actively speculated on the topic of IMF financial injections to cover the budget deficit. The amount is 5-7 billion dollars a month.
And now the head of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine declares that if the conflict continues for another three or four months, then the state will have to cut budget spending and raise taxes. Economists are arguing about whether the minister’s assessment is correct and perhaps this is just an attempt to put pressure on the US and the IMF. There is no need to argue, it is necessary to impose the same matrix on the situation with the budget deficit and the economy as on the situation with Azovstal.
In this matrix, there is a default theme (captivity) and a bunch of signals from the Ukrainian side, which are designed to camouflage it. It can be assumed that everything is arranged in a similar way with the Ukrainian economy.
Here the topic of silence is the real state of affairs in the Ukrainian economy: Marchenko voices this state to the Economist, which most Ukrainians do not read. And the monthly hole of 5 billion dollars in the Ukrainian media is presented in the form of an amount that the IMF is about to start giving to Ukraine just like that.
Meanwhile, even March and April managed to be pulled out mainly due to taxes collected in advance and war loans. There is no money right now, and the three or four months that the minister is talking about is the period during which this “no money” can still be hidden.
By the way, one of Marchenko’s complaints is about the salaries of the Ukrainian military. He calls them a heavy burden (with the start of the military operation, they were increased several times, these expenses were not provided for in the budget). But then what can be said about the plans of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine to increase the army to a million people?
Reception “we have almost won, just a little bit left” can be called naive. But the Kyiv authorities have mastered it to perfection. And it doesn’t matter what it is – “Azov” or the economy. It all comes down to trying to save Zelensky’s rating. And the goal of stubborn resistance is ultimately the same.
Could Zelensky solve the matter amicably, because before the start of the military operation he received demands from the Russian side? Received – and could. But then he would only have to quietly resign.
Now, of course, it is also not easy: the country is in ruins, thousands of dead, the collapse of the economy predicts even the closest environment. But some of these problems are solved by money – that is, these are not problems, but expenses. And for the rest there is the same “Truth”.
Николай Стороженко (Nikolai Storozhenko)
question from mod .. did you write this in your native language and then translate it using google/yandex … if so translation is excellent … mod
This essay is from Vzglyad https://vz.ru/world/2022/5/17/1158916.html
I used Google translate and corrected a bit. :)
Not much they let me post these days of my own here…but this is a LOT.
a lot bettah…
People of Ritters “persuasion” have been susceptible to pressure historically but who knows, its easy to put on rose-colored glasses for most ppl and our biases may fool us.
I will put my hand in a fire for Ritter.
He is NUTZ. Trust me.
He might be wrong – but there is no deception in him.
He is limited by his honor to his tribe. I would like to talk to him, take him apart as far as his understandings of some such…but I would NEVER touch his honor. He made good on that long time ago…
He is above and beyond. I am not shitting ya. About five people on this planet I would go all out for. He is one of them.
It is what it is.
Fresh YT videos tend to have no captions yet. I find them often only available some hours/days later.
After that, they will be available as automatic captions.
There is now also this new feature of transcripts, but I don’t know exactly hoe a creatorcan use this.
Christopher Lawrence of Dupuy Institute see both Ukies and RF MoD highly exaggerating enemy losses and on the other hand not telling true own losses. He claimed that UAF and RuA have lost 3,000 more soldiers death than their official figures. He speculated that part of RF losses might be under banner of DPR and LPR.
I’m quite sceptic to RF MoD claims of almost 25,000 Ukie battle deaths. When there are normally at least 3 times more wounded than killed UAF hardly have lost 100,000 soldiers. Military situation is not backing such high numbers. Surprisingly many are still believing in those MoD claims being not only “whole truth” but actually “moderate”.
Lawrence himself is suggesting UAF losses been around 6,000-7,000 killed. What puzzles me is lack of numbers of missing in action (MIA) cases of all forces (RF, UAF, DPR, LPR)
Doode – I am watching this and I wish You were right.
At this point there are 30 thousand dead ukranians. 5thou of them in mass graves, in territorries, that hate their smell – or anything to do with them.
Watch the logistix, that drive this slaughter – it is sobering. I wonder how the Russians carry out operations.
They are drenched in…corpses.
It is becoming a major logistical/moral problem.
Itz no fun – being an illegal aliannn…who is dead.
And his buddies are shooting at me, while I try to give him his honours…
It would appear that the UKN and Western forces arent very bright.
Nor are the western media.
I suspect its not really about winning the battle but lining the $ pockets of the MIC,
and using their stockpiles of munitions that would otherwise need deactivating.
I was once told some of these western “experts” on Russia who claim they have been there – when it was checked it turned out they only ever stopped over at a Russian airport on their way to China or India region etc… eg went to the terminal bar and got a drink or some cigarettes. Or alt stepped over the border for few minutes in some remote location with a camera where there is no border fence before a patrol came along.
High numbers of missing in action happens only when enemy has run over units and lots of soldiers including wounded unable to be evacuated. In case of Ukrainian army there is special case of Mariupol. At early stage perhaps hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers managed to escape from siege but not many after late March. Other question is how many UAF soldiers were really trapped. Russian intelligence estimates there were 8,100 in 9 March but perhaps that number is little bit too high. Some 6,000 may be real. These are either killed or MIA.
Mariupol will make sure that Ukie irreplaceable losses (KIA+MIA) are now bigger likely much bigger than combinated irreplaceable losses of DPR, LPR and RAF.
Lets remember that in 1944 majority of German Estern Front losses were irreplaceable while in 1941 around 23%.
Thank you again, Andei, for your excellent analysis.
However, I believe I have found two flaws in your in your publication of “The ‘Real’ Revolution in Military Affairs”, which I am currently about halfway through… :-)
You stated in your book that no weapon system in existence can deter Russia’s new hyper-sonic missiles. I cannot dispute this given the lack of parity that the US currently has with advanced Russian weapon systems.
However, the context of this statement is not entirely true. As a senior software engineer, I can say that all of us believe that any single software tool can be broken, no matter the defenses built into it. It is the same with military hardware.
In this case, I did some research on what type of system could defend against a hyper-sonic missile attack. What I found was the work being done by the United States with Rail Gun Technologies.
Such work yielded a Rail Gun projectile velocity rate of Mach 6+, which means as research continued this velocity could have been improved upon.
With such projectile velocities based on probability algorithms of an incoming missile and its constant updated trajectories, coordinated timing bursts, and a large array of such weapons firing at such timed bursts, it is possible that Rail Gun projectiles may be able to hit an incoming hyper-sonic missile even with its terminal flight avoidance systems working full-bore.
The problem with even my own analysis is that the United States ceased its research into this weaponry in 2018 giving up valuable time to enhance their own developments.
At the time, such systems were simply too bulky to afford the type of response that I see as possible with such systems but I believe engineers and scientists would have eventually found a solution given the evolution of supporting technologies that increases at a rapid rate.
Reading the chapter, “The End of Invulnerability”, you stated that with a small salvo of hyper-sonic missiles targeting ships of the US Navy, the “leakage” was determined to be such that one of these missiles will get through despite whatever defenses the US Navy puts up and as such, any such fleet would be entirely destroyed.
Now given again, what we know regarding the capabilities of hyper-sonic weaponry, your analysis has a very high probability of being correct. Enough so, as to be relied on by Russian military planners.
However, the way your statement was written it promoted a sense of overconfidence in such systems that is a classic misstep in military analysis. Overconfidence most often causes the defeat of an overconfident opponent.
It is possible for example, that the United States may have developed a jamming system that would blunt a hyper-sonic missile’s avoidance technologies making it fail to properly avoid defensive fire. I am not saying the US has done this but we do not really know at this point as the US tends to be more secretive about its military developments than that of Russia.
“Electronic Counter Measures” or ECM is a large field that the US is also quite invested in. And an EMP defense that litters the sky with such pulses may also deter an incoming hyper-sonic missile as its circuitry gets fried to a crisp.
Are we aware of such capabilities on the part of the US? Absolutely not. Do I believe there is a high probability that the US has developed such defensive systems. No.
However, there is always the possibility, which means that there is a small chance that such advanced Russian weaponry could be countered.
You need to distinquish between the “small chance” that any random physical or electromagnetic garbage tossed into the air might deter a hypersonic weapon, and the different “small chance” that amerika might develop an effective counter to a Russian hypersonic weapon.