By Pepe Escobar posted with permission and cross-posted
Maidan in Almaty? Oh yeah. But it’s complicated.
So is that much fear and loathing all about gas? Not really.
Kazakhstan was rocked into chaos virtually overnight, in principle, because of the doubling of prices for liquefied gas, which reached the (Russian) equivalent of 20 rubles per liter (compare it to an average of 30 rubles in Russia itself).
That was the spark for nationwide protests spanning every latitude from top business hub Almaty to the Caspian Sea ports of Aktau and Atyrau and even the capital Nur-Sultan, formerly Astana.
The central government was forced to roll back the gas price to the equivalent of 8 rubles a liter. Yet that only prompted the next stage of the protests, demanding lower food prices, an end of the vaccination campaign, a lower retirement age for mothers with many children and – last but not least – regime change, complete with its own slogan: Shal, ket! (“Down with the old man.”)
The “old man” is none other than national leader Nursultan Nazarbayev, 81, who even as he stepped down from the presidency after 29 years in power, in 2019, for all practical purposes remains the Kazakh gray eminence as head of the Security Council and the arbiter of domestic and foreign policy.
The prospect of yet another color revolution inevitably comes to mind: perhaps Turquoise-Yellow – reflecting the colors of the Kazakh national flag. Especially because right on cue, sharp observers found out that the usual suspects – the American embassy – was already “warning” about mass protests as early as in December 16, 2021.
Maidan in Almaty? Oh yeah. But it’s complicated.
Almaty in chaos
For the outside world, it’s hard to understand why a major energy exporting power such as Kazakhstan needs to increase gas prices for its own population.
The reason is – what else – unbridled neoliberalism and the proverbial free market shenanigans. Since 2019 liquefied gas is electronically traded in Kazakhstan. So keeping price caps – a decades-long custom – soon became impossible, as producers were constantly faced with selling their product below cost as consumption skyrocketed.
Everybody in Kazakhstan was expecting a price hike, as much as everybody in Kazakhstan uses liquefied gas, especially in their converted cars. And everybody in Kazakhstan has a car, as I was told, ruefully, during my last visit to Almaty, in late 2019, when I was trying in vain to find a taxi to head downtown.
It’s quite telling that the protests started in the city of Zhanaozen, smack into the oil/gas hub of Mangystau. And it’s also telling that Unrest Central immediately turned to car-addicted Almaty, the nation’s real business hub, and not the isolated, government infrastructure-heavy capital in the middle of the steppes.
At first President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev seemed to have been caught in a deer facing the headlights situation. He promised the return of price caps, installed a state of emergency/curfew both in Almaty and Mangystau (then nationwide) while accepting the current government’s resignation en masse and appointing a faceless Deputy Prime Minister, Alikhan Smailov, as interim PM until the formation of a new cabinet.
Yet that could not possibly contain the unrest. In lightning fast succession, we had the storming of the Almaty Akimat (mayor’s office); protesters shooting at the Army; a Nazarbayev monument demolished in Taldykorgan; his former residence in Almaty taken over; Kazakhtelecom disconnecting the whole country from the internet; several members of the National Guard – armored vehicles included – joining the protesters in Aktau; ATMs gone dead.
And then Almaty, plunged into complete chaos, was virtually seized by the protesters, including its international airport, which on Wednesday morning was under extra security, and in the evening had become occupied territory.
Kazakh airspace, meanwhile, had to contend with an extended traffic jam of private jets leaving to Moscow and Western Europe. Even though the Kremlin noted that Nur-Sultan had not asked for any Russian help, a “special delegation” was soon flying out of Moscow. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov cautiously stressed, “we are convinced that our Kazakh friends can independently solve their internal problems”, adding, “it is important that no one interferes from the outside.”
How could it all derail so fast?
Up to now, the succession game in Kazakhstan had been seen mostly as a hit across Northern Eurasia. Local honchos, oligarchs and the comprador elites all kept their fiefdoms and sources of income. And yet, off the record, I was told in Nur-Sultan in late 2019 there would be serious problems ahead when some regional clans would come to collect – as in confronting “the old man” Nazarbayev and the system he put in place.
Tokayev did issue the proverbial call “not to succumb to internal and external provocations” – which makes sense – yet also assured that the government “will not fall”. Well, it was already falling, even after an emergency meeting trying to address the tangled web of socioeconomic problems with a promise that all “legitimate demands” by the protesters will be met.
This did not play out as a classic regime change scenario – at least initially. The configuration was of a fluid, amorphous state of chaos, as the – fragile – Kazakh institutions of power were simply incapable of comprehending the wider social malaise. A competent political opposition is non-existent: there’s no political exchange. Civil society has no channels to express itself.
So yes: there’s a riot goin’ on – to quote American rhythm’n blues. And everyone is a loser. What is still not exactly clear is which conflicting clans are flaming the protests – and what is their agenda in case they’d have a shot at power. After all, no “spontaneous” protests can pop up simultaneously all over this vast nation virtually overnight.
Kazakhstan was the last republic to leave the collapsing USSR over three decades ago, in December 1991. Under Nazarbayev, it immediately engaged in a self-described “multi-vector” foreign policy. Up to now, Nur-Sultan was skillfully positioning itself as a prime diplomatic mediator – from discussions on the Iranian nuclear program as early as 2013 to the war in/on Syria from 2016. The target: to solidify itself as the quintessential bridge between Europe and Asia.
The Chinese-driven New Silk Roads, or BRI, were officially launched by Xi Jinping at Nazarbayev University in September 2013. That happened to swiftly dovetail with the Kazakh concept of Eurasian economic integration, crafted after Nazarbayev’s own government spending project, Nurly Zhol (“Bright Path”), designed to turbo-charge the economy after the 2008-9 financial crisis.
In September 2015, in Beijing, Nazarbayev aligned Nurly Zhol with BRI, de facto propelling Kazakhstan to the heart of the new Eurasian integration order. Geostrategically, the largest landlocked nation on the planet became the prime interplay territory of the Chinese and Russian visions, BRI and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU).
A diversionary tactic
For Russia, Kazakhstan is even more strategic than for China. Nur-Sultan signed the CSTO treaty in 2003. It’s a key member of the EAEU. Both nations have massive military-technical ties and conduct strategic space cooperation in Baikonur. Russian has the status of an official language, spoken by 51% of the republic’s citizens.
At least 3.5 million Russians live in Kazakhstan. It’s still early to speculate about a possible “revolution” tinged with national liberation colors were the old system to eventually collapse. And even if that happened, Moscow will never lose all of its considerable political influence.
So the immediate problem is to assure Kazakhstan’s stability. The protests must be dispersed. There will be plenty of economic concessions. Permanent destabilizing chaos simply cannot be tolerated – and Moscow knows it by heart. Another – rolling – Maidan is out of the question.
The Belarus equation has shown how a strong hand can operate miracles. Still, the CSTO agreements do not cover assistance in case of internal political crises – and Tokayev did not seem to be inclined to make such a request.
Until he did. He called for the CSTO to intervene to restore order. There will be a military enforced curfew. And Nur-Sultan may even confiscate the assets of US and UK companies which are allegedly sponsoring the protests.
This is how Nikol Pashinyan, chairman of the CSTO Collective Security Council and Prime Minister of Armenia, framed it: Tokayev invoked a “threat to national security” and the “sovereignty” of Kazakhstan, “caused, inter alia, by outside interference.” So the CSTO “decided to send peacekeeping forces” to normalize the situation, “for a limited period of time”.
The usual destabilizing suspects are well known. They may not have the reach, the political influence, and the necessary amount of Trojan horses to keep Kazakhstan on fire indefinitely.
At least the Trojan horses themselves are being very explicit. They want an immediate release of all political prisoners; regime change; a provisional government of “reputable” citizens; and – what else – “withdrawal of all alliances with Russia.”
And then it all gets down to the level of ridiculous farce, as the EU starts calling on Kazakh authorities to “respect the right to peaceful protests.” As in allowing total anarchy, robbery, looting, hundreds of vehicles destroyed, attacks with assault rifles, ATMs and even the Duty Free at Almaty airport completely plundered.
This analysis (in Russian) covers some key points, mentioning, “the internet is full of pre-arranged propaganda posters and memos to the rebels” and the fact that “the authorities are not cleaning up the mess, as Lukashenko did in Belarus.”
Slogans so far seem to originate from plenty of sources – extolling everything from a “western path” to Kazakhstan to polygamy and Sharia law: “There is no single goal yet, it has not been identified. The result will come later. It is usually the same. The elimination of sovereignty, external management and, finally, as a rule, the formation of an anti-Russian political party.”
Putin, Lukashenko and Tokayev spent a long time over the phone, at the initiative of Lukashenko. The leaders of all CSTO members are in close contact. A master game plan – as in a massive “anti-terrorist operation” – has already been hatched. Gen. Gerasimov will personally supervise it.
Now compare it to what I learned from two different, high-ranking intel sources.
The first source was explicit: the whole Kazakh adventure is being sponsored by MI6 to create a new Maidan right before the Russia/US-NATO talks in Geneva and Brussels next week, to prevent any kind of agreement. Significantly, the “rebels” maintained their national coordination even after the internet was disconnected.
The second source is more nuanced: the usual suspects are trying to force Russia to back down against the collective West by creating a major distraction in their Eastern front, as part of a rolling strategy of chaos all along Russia’s borders. That may be a clever diversionary tactic, but Russian military intel is watching. Closely. And for the sake of the usual suspects, this better may not be interpreted – ominously – as a war provocation.
The actual president has to go! But I go a step further, and I think HE IS GUILTY of having sympathized with pro-western forces, unsure whether to join them or not, but certainly not acting as President Putin’s friend. And when the game got tough, was he unable to stop the gangs (sent by US/UK/EU) already inside, or he pretended to? So I have a question “is he just incompetent or a traitor”?
Tokayev looks very competent with the moves he made. He dumped his predecessor from power, took over Security, called in the CSTO, and is putting down the violent mobs and killers sent to overthrow his nation. He cut the price of fuel and froze prices for six months. He’s listening to Moscow.
So far, he’s winning. If he can reshuffle the government, get some fresh aid and stabilize the economy and society, he will be ahead of the game.
He actually is in position to get help from both Russia and China, and if he grabs some of the stolen assets by Nurbayev’s family and clan, he can bring in more investors.
This might be rather asinine to say, but i think its relevant to what we are witnessing.
Re-establish the USSR but with far more tolerance and openness for member states to be leaders of the union. Not full on communism, but a hybrid socialist capitalist system. Cap personal wealth. No more mega billionaire oligarchic elites gaming the system at the expense of everyone else.
Why even suggest such a thing? Because ever since the Soviet Union ‘tore down that wall’ the world seems to have gone to hell in a hand basket. The divide between rich and poor has become absurd. The entire ‘free’ world is no longer free because every important election is rigged. Countless millions displaced or killed by color revolution, war, color revolution war ad nauseam. We are now on the precipice of world war once again, so the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Republics if anything, made matters a lot worse. Countless millions dead or left without a home all due to the aspirations of world domination and population genocide by a tiny few sociopaths relative to the other almost 7 billion of us.
Sorry Russia, but in some ways you have a responsibility to re-establish the healthy balance of power so these psychos stop.
@A.S.K, agreed. For some years now it has seemed to me that the world is suffering from a shortage of Communism, due to the breakup of the Soviet Union. China and Cuba on their own cannot do the heavy lifting for the rest of the world. One big mistake of the USSR was to adopt an aggressively 19th century materialist religion. I would suggest Christian Communism is more suitable to the European religious tradition; along the lines that Ramin Mazaheri suggests that Islamic Communism as more suitable to the Iranian religious tradition.
The US empire is only able to get away with one colour revolution after another in the Russian periphery (and MENA) because their economies have been unable to provide sufficient economic security to their respective populations.
IMHO, Russia and the former Soviet republics like Kazakhstan needs to emulate the economic path taken by China. John Ross wrote about this in April 1992, correctly predicting what would happen.
“Why the economic reform succeeded in China and will fail in Russia and Eastern Europe.”
Putin doesn’t want another 60 million moslems in the Federation.
New post on NEO “British Intelligence Intensifies its Struggle against Russia & China in Central Asia”. It seems the British are leading this one, sparing Biden to pretend good will to all. Typical
i can not access neo, i only get “m.journal-neo.org unexpectedly closed the connection.”
Do you use vpn or not?
I tried changing to a u.s ip, u.k ip and Norwegian ip, no matter what i do i just get the ” m.journal-neo.org unexpectedly closed the connection.”.
[Note to moderators: New Eastern Outlook is censored by Brave browser & probably others, so please allow this copy & paste.]
British Intelligence Intensifies its Struggle against Russia and China in Central Asia
In a recent interview for the The Telegraph Damian Hinds, the British Minister of State for Security and Borders, named the most threatening states with which British politicians and secret service agents must contend. According to him, clear dangers are posed by Russia, China, and Iran.
That a representative of Britain’s present-day political and military elite is willing to speak in such hostile, specific, and repetitive terms comes as no surprise: ever since the 19th century London has been unsuccessfully attempting to “pacify” Russia and China, whose actions in Central Asia were supposedly a threaten to the “domain of the British Empire” in the Near and Middle East. In Britain, this idea has long since become an obsession in the truest sense of the word. As such, official London misses no opportunity to demonstrate its anti-Russian and anti-Chinese bona-fides, working the media into a frenzied clamor of hostility and propaganda.
Under the cover of this popular hysteria, Britain made large-scale covert interventions in Central Asia meant to hinder the extension of Russian and Chinese influence in the region, shut their goods out of traditional markets, and take control of the trade-routes linking Moscow and Beijing to the Middle East across the Caspian and Aral regions.
For Britain, as indeed for other NATO powers, Central Asia is an area of long-standing strategic interest. To some extent this is due to the region’s significant mineral reserves, as well as its strategic location as a bridge between Europe and Southeast Asia. For precisely this reason the West has been especially active there in recent years, trying to forestall any revival of Russian and Chinese strategic presence and to use this important bridgehead to exert pressure on both Moscow and Beijing. Secret intelligence organs have been actively employed in this effort. Thus, back in the autumn of 2005 American and British intelligence recruited elements of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (the IDU – banned in Russia) in the province of Kunduz to organize an attack on the southern provinces of Kyrgyzstan, although this operation was never actually carried out.
The appointment in June 2020 of Richard Moore, a former ambassador to Turkey, as head of MI6, Britain’s foreign intelligence service, was a move to strengthen the British position in the Central Asian theatre. He is not only a stalwart Russophobe, but also a fierce apologist for Great Turania: that is, the success of the pan-Turkist aspiration to create a state uniting the Turkic-speaking peoples in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and even for that matter in the Russian federal republics of the Volga region, the Urals, and the North Caucasus. Richard Moore has long nurtured this project. The key to London’s plans in this area is winning the support of Erdogan, president of the Turkish Republic Erdogan, and the now-head of MI6 worked to realize this aim during his ambassadorship in Turkey in 2014-2018. To this end Moore organized repeated visits to Britain where the Turkish leader met with representatives of its political-military establishment; always supported Erodgan’s course for Turkey in his official statements; and gave packing to his political party. Since the abrupt cooling of Ankara’s attitude to the USA and the EU following the failed coup of 2016, which involved partisans of the Islamist preacher Gülen and members the American secret service, Britain has practically become Turkey’s leading ally in the West, with a central role played by Richard Moore. It was through Erdogan that Moore established a friendly relationship with the Azerbaijani leadership; through Erdogan that he actively observed the situation in the North Caucasus and the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. British law enforcement and intelligent agencies showed a particular zeal for strengthening Britain’s position in Central Asia through their involvement with the elder daughter of Nursultan Nazarbayev and the disgraced daughter of the late Islam Karimov.
With Moore taking the helm, British intelligence has noticeably intensified its activities in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Both pan-Turkist organizations have tame Islamist groups have been strengthened in order to neutralize the influence of Moscow and Beijing in the region. Turkey’s part in this great game is to serve as a kind of battering-ram for British interests.
A no less important role must be assigned to the British Council’s activities in the region: in Central Asia and elsewhere, this organization is a known front for British intelligence operatives. The British Council has covered all of Central Asia with its “projects”. Britain has extensive experience in using ethnic conflicts to broaden its influence from its imperial days, and this strategy is central to the work of British intelligence in Central Asia. Being well aware that the Ferghana valley is a potential hotbed of destabilising ethnic conflict in the region, especially for those states whose borders are entangled there, the British Council has thoroughly studied the situation there and established contacts with as many informal assets as possible: drug-barons, nationalists, and radicals are all being subjected to its “re-education”. For the last 30 years, under the banner of the so-called “Eastern Partnership” policy, the British Council has penetrated most of the state structures of the region and formed a powerful network of influence.
Under the cover of the Western coalition’s military campaigns in the Middle East against the terrorists of Daesh, British intelligence has also established contacts among several of the terrorist organizations now re-locating to Afghanistan. Daesh militants from among the citizens of Central Asian states and the Transcaucasus were given special attention as potential British assets. A clear example of this is furnished by the official confession by Dagestan native Azamat Ayvazov that he was recruited by British intelligence, who deceived him into travelling to Syria and joining the ranks of Daesh. From Ayvazov’s confession one can draw the conclusion that British intelligence operate a pipeline through which potential terrorists are moved between Turkey and Syria.
Further insight into the ties between the British secret service and terrorist groups is provided by the recent media reporting of a meeting on the Syrian-Turkish border in May 2021 between Jonathan Powell, a high-ranking representative of MI6, and the leadership of the Al-Nusra Front terrorist organization (the Jabhat al-Nusra; banned in Russia). Powell offered to remove this criminal militia from the list of terrorist organizations in exchange for its loyalty to the West. This organization is of special interest to Britain as emigrants from Central Asia fight in its multi-national ranks.
Britain has long been developing its own program for the countries of Central Asia. A full decade ago, the British parliament formed a working group for this region in which more than twenty members of the Lords and Commons took part. Its strategy was based on strengthening economic and military-political co-operation with the Central Asian countries.
Britain makes active use of NGOs working in the field of education to project London’s ideological influence. One of these is the University of Central Asia, founded by the Aga Khan Foundation (headquartered in London) and having branches in Kazakhstan (Tekeli), Tajikistan (Khorog), and Kyrgyzstan (Naryn). Aga Khan IV, spiritual leader of the Ismailis, is well-known for his and his family’s close ties to the British intelligence community, and himself takes an active part in advancing Britain’s political ends.
Vladimir Odintsov, political observer, writing for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
Thank you, i was starting to get annoyed that i cannot open that site and qurious about what was written in there.
But how can’ t China&Russia suppress it?
I’m sure that the SVR is more active in the C. Asian republics than they were a decade ago. Russia had to sort out its internal issues first.
According to earlier reports that I read, the current Kazakh President Tokayev is pro-Russian unlike his predecessor. The ongoing events would align him more with the Kremlin because its clear now that Nazerbayev’s non-aligned policy has failed. The Anglozionists want complete submission of sovereign countries to their will.
On the other had, I believe that there’s also a pro-China faction in these countries. Nazerbayev’s daughter reportedly has also studied in China. However, it’s clear that the old man and his family are an obstacle in the path of the Eurasian integration because they have an anti-Russian sentiment.
IMO, similar to the Belarus, the Russian intelligence agencies will be more active inside C. Asia as a result of the current events.
I am using Brave in Canada and the domains and links work just fine. The censorship may be at your national or ISP level.
I am also using Brave, in Australia. No problems accessing NEO here either.
I’m also in Australia & using Mozilla /Firefox & also have access to W10 Edge. Neither browser can link into https://journal-neo.org/ – – search comes up saying -” Unable to connect”. I was able to access by using Tor Browser. Looks like the ongoing Censorship is getting worse & affecting anything the PTB don’t want you to know about.
We must fight back by using Google etc as little as possible. https://swisscows.com is V Good!
@Dick Lenning: “For the last 30 years, under the banner of the so-called Eastern Partnership policy, **the British Council** has penetrated most of the state structures of the region and formed a powerful network of influence.”
Thank you for explaining what a young graduate told me 30 years ago: that the British Council had generously given her a scholarship to teach Democracy in “all the Stans”.
Spy chief reacts to China’s mockery of MI6 & CIA
The Referenced Video
Parody Show | 0.07: No Time to Die Laughing
MI6 head Richard Moore tipped his hat to Chinese state media for giving his agency “free publicity,” after Xinhua News produced a satirical video poking fun at London and Washington’s intelligence services.
Entitled ‘No Time to Die Laughing’, the oddball ‘James Bond’ mock-up centers on two ‘MI6’ spies – Agents 0.07 and 0.06 – who are seen discussing the agency’s fixation on China as a “top priority” over a sitcom-like laugh track. Responding to the “leaked video” on Thursday after it was posted by Xinhua, Moore thanked the outlet for its “interest” in the MI6, as well as “the unexpected free publicity.”
So Mr.Moore, the new British spy chief, welcomes free publicity from China and elsewhere. Good luck to all his agents abroad.
“British are leading this one, sparing Biden to pretend good will to all.”
Doesn’t have to be true. British and Americans are at odds since Trump presidency. For a very long time, British achieved their goals by manipulating US assets (through Zionists proxies and network of secret societies). During Good times, after WW2, nobody complained. Now, when tide is turned, part of US establishment is not happy to be sugar-daddy for British entitled oligarchy. Americans are entangled into their own problems, so British are on their own, hence this rather clumsy offensive from their side. Stricken with same problems as US, and out of the shadows, their chances of winning are greatly diminished. Alas, British oligarchy is hell-bent to restore former glory by subduing Asia once again.
Being insanely rich, even while singing their swan-song, they will bring great misery to number of poor unfortunate nations. Luckily, their medling abilities are not as was before. Backsliding from humiliating powers like China and India, to Kazakhstan, today.
The NED is funding 20 projects in Kazakhstan while it is also funding 29 projects in Kyrgyzstan. One has to wonder what they have brewing there:
The IRI (International Republican Institute) website offers some more insight. The IRI is one of 4 sub-organizations within the NED. You will notice in their “job postings” section their projects are very much in line with the RAND Report Pepe had cited:
In Kyrgyzstan, they are looking to coordinate “focus groups” to see how they can utilize the “corruption” angle (this is the the same as their “human rights” tactic) against their current President:
We can’t say for sure that this is the direction that the NED will go but this is a directive that they are funding. The NED is analogous to a regime change venture capital firm. They make a variety of investments in different projects. Some investments are larger than others. They just need 1 to give them the big payoff.
Sometimes these investments are relatively small but they have the desired impact. For example “Pussy Riot” was an NED project. I am sure that the NED “executives” would argue that the small $25K investment (I am not sure of the exact amount) in the “Pussy Riot” project was an investment that “paid off.”
Hmm. So, any chance that decision-making centers behind the op experience consequences?
You can just smell Uncle Shmuel in all of this.
Exactly my thoughts. I happen to have done some contract work recently with a climate NGO that is very concentrated on Kazakhstan’s gas production and emissions. The board is all heavily associated with Tel Aviv. It came just before the COP26 summit, and this “revolution” after. They are going to come after Kazakh national resources, and punish their involvement with Iran and Syria.
I live in an oil-producing US state, and they are doing the same to my neighbors. It’s very shady. Lots of fudged statistics. All using completely fraudulent concerns for the environment as a cynical alibi. That’s not what they’re really doing, of course. They couldn’t care less about that.
Peace to you and keep an eye over your shoulder. God will win in the end.
I won’t say am shocked at the latest eruption of “US/Western sponsored democracy”, as the neocons follow a clear script, and only the specifics vary (timing and tactics). Troubles for Russia in her “Central Asian underbelly” has been recommended for years by Rand and other “national security” think tanks, whose actual task is never defence but offense and the expansion of US imperial power. That said, several things need to be asked and they are not pleasant. What on earth are Russia and China doing to PREVENT these occurrences? Not just at the mildly palliative level, but at the deep level of preventing social eruptions through the empowerment of good and decent governance. If Russia and China are surrounded by allies who are all crooks, the empire will have an easy hand exploiting the inevitably accumulated anger and frustration amid the populace.
Oppression and widespread oligarchic corruption, a blatant two class system, create the kindling for huge conflagrations, which the West is only too happy to exploit. Russia’s intelligence should have known about these problems in this ultra sensitive area, Moscow’s natural sphere of influence, and NOT allowed the situation to reach this level of gravity. Now, even if they snuff out the flames, the whore media in the West will still exact its pound of flesh and pour more demonisation on Putin, etc. Same can be said for the 2014 disaster in Ukraine, a tumour that has clearly become radioactive, as far as Moscow is concerned. It should have been foreseen and prevented.
A basic step that both Moscow and Beijing should implement IN DEPTH (they finally took measures, albeit, in my view too late and still too inadequately) is the control, extirpation and banishment of ALL foreign NGOs operating within their jurisdictions. The fact that a thinly populated nation like Kazakhstan, in a truly vital strategic location, should allow almost 20,000 NGOs to operate freely defies logic and reason, Someone has to be held responsible for such broad daylight penetration, and that must be per force the old oligarch at the top whom the color revolutionists are now using to concentrate the people’s fury. How much of a counter-intelligence expert must you be to know that Western NGOs are NEVER up to any good?
It works both ways, the NGOs will be ruthlessly infiltrated and spied upon by the host country giving them an idea of who is doing what, where and when. To cull them all will actually leave you blind in some areas. But in general I agree. Leave a few and make sure they are well watched, listened to an investigated financially.
@Albert Whitford: “Oppression and widespread oligarchic corruption, a blatant two class system, create the kindling for huge conflagrations” … in the West.
For instance Sweden and U$A have the highest Index of Inequality of Ownership in the world. So why don’t Russia, China and Iran spend billions to destabilize the West by exploiting this blatant oligarchic corruption in the West?
I think China, Russia and Iran have better things to do: build up their own countries, and help only those countries like Syria which show the potential to help themselves same as China, Russia and Iran have done.
Just answer me one question: what to think of an Asian nation that changes its Cyrillic alphabet to Latin-based? What does this say about the intentions of the government and the elite? Need I say anything else? The East wants to eat American cookies, so it is easy for Protestant Evangelical Christian NGOs and McDonald’s. The West is effective with pragmatism and popular cultural abstraction, irresistible to deluded envious Asian Easterners. So: next generation.
you are right!
Eastern Europe population is dying for American donuts. Then they can be like The Simpsons. That is at least the ultimate wish here in Serbia.
That is one NGO per 1000 people. Or one NGO per 200 families.
Hard to believe.
Yup…880 Kazakhs per NGO, to be exact. At least 20000 low level western spies suported by >100000 usefull idiots. All coordinated from abroad via encrypted realtime connection known as www. Apart from foreign donations in range tens of millions $$$, NGOs are also financed from budget of host coutries.
This is not an easy question to answer since the old man at the was still pulling many of the strings but I would compare this to the same situation to what we saw in Belarus with Lukashenko.
As with Lukashenko, they were trying maximize their benefit by playing one side (the west) against the other (Russia). He did not realize that the west has a lot more experience at playing this game than he does.
As in the case of Lukashenko, if he wants to stay in power he had to run to the arms of Russia. The west had already played it’s hand and their plan did not include him or the old man. The only question is if he is using this situation to also cut the old man out and consolidate his power.
It is not a completely analogous situation as Belarus in the sense that Lukashenko had a lot more control over the government. Western soft power was never able to infiltrate the government and get powerful officials on their side. They weren’t able to infiltrate the military and get some generals to flip. Western soft power interests were only able to create opposition media and get crowds out on the streets. That is not enough to overthrow someone as powerful as Lukashenko. The west knew that but they still took their shot and lost.
In the case of Kazakhstan, western soft power appears to have more access to some powerful figures and may have been able to get access to the military. The fact that these armed thugs were able to gain access to an arms depot shows that the military did not have complete control over this and maybe some were also helping with the sabotage. Also, the president had fired the security officials in his cabinet. Perhaps he doesn’t trust them. The infiltration I western soft power is deeper in Kazakhstan.
Very well assessed. I think along the same line about the current situation in Kazantzakis vs Belarus.
“𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦’𝘴 𝘯𝘰 𝘱𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘹𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦. 𝘊𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘭 𝘴𝘰𝘤𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘯𝘰 𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘦𝘭𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘪𝘵𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘧.”
This goes to heart of most countries nowadays, and why they remain ripe for timed Empire destabilization.. There is a biting arrogant self-interested clique in charge everywhere; little wealth trickles down. Many if not most nations follow this neoliberal model. And by exclusively feeding a rentier class, whilst blocking channels for even speaking out never mind avenues of change for the silent oppressed majority, then that nation can be torched at will from the outside.
Indeed, this has been recent pattern of Empire in its dying spasms – overturning the game board where possible.
So the foremost enemies of national survival and multipolar coalescence appear to be these comprador elites with weak imagination, little loyalty to their own and with concrete feet.
“𝘚𝘪𝘨𝘯𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘭𝘺, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 “𝘳𝘦𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘴” 𝘮𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘤𝘰𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘢𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘦𝘵 𝘸𝘢𝘴 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘯𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘦𝘥.”
If by radio comms, wouldn’t EW be effective to disable?? And this is one of the Russian strong points. Black out comms over entire city while hunt down the saboteurs. This has likely been trained for by CSTO and SCO for many years. I hope what we are seeing in Kazakhstan is the long-awaited enforcement of Order 227’s “Not one step back!”
EW as Jamming works 2 ways, Sometime it’s better to let the criminals chatter on, for awhile, and visit them at home for a chat about who’s on first. Additionally, said comm can be spoofed and manipulated…and quislings and their criminal cohort enticed into going to a special bigbig party. I recall a few fellas that bought 2 meter ham radio rigs to coordinate a bank job…it didn’t work out according to plan… But also recall Springing George Blake…which used simple 10 meter handitalkies, and worked. George’s sprung was longlongtime age. The cops have twigged to radio.
Recall that good lady the newlander of cookie fame…and if she had been jammed we would not have the pleasure of her vulgar but honest blabber.
It may be that art 4 of csto being invoked will have long legs. It is more strident that art 5 of otan treaty, and worth comparing. Art 5 leaves response to members, they can send soap. Art 4 is far more specific.
Looks like WW3 is the Zone A response to not-an-ultimatum…and since a scorpion is fated to always remain a scorpion…the violent response was always hard-wired…as, I expect, a smart KGB lawyer spy professor would see instantly.
Takes a time to develop…but the pace does rise. I do wonder about the “exploding meteor” story…it stinks.
Let’s hope that Nazarbayev does to the rebels what Sisi did to the M.B.
The old man is out of office, out of power, out of the government and in deep doodoo for all his corruption. His family and clan are in trouble.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they name of the capital returns to Astana.
Nazerbayev is the problem
-Playing the multi vector game
-getting rid of the Russian alphabet for the Latin alphabet
-Adopting British laws
-playing the pan Turkic card with Erdogan
– allowing the proliferation of NGOs
There are other things I could name but these are just the main ones
Nazerbayev was a false friend to Russia
The new president should look to Russia to establish himself in the role of president
Listen to the people
Stop the plunder of resources for favoured clans – spread the wealth
Also Kazakhstan is a secular society and needs to act like one
End the nationalist policies so that those who are not Kazakh have equal rights to language and culture
He is old Soviet school, even in that times he was kazakh powerman.
And whole security apparatus was under his control.
Remember when he quitted the presidency?
It was little bit surprise.
Seems that the multi-vector policy turned against him totally.
Now even leading kazakh politicians, which were his comrades and “students” turned against him.
Possibly he will leave relatively calm in exile in Russia.
Why do you think he will end up in Russia? He might still be in Kazakhstan. Maybe Belarus has offered him exile? as Lukasehnko called him today:
A quick update on Sputnik – it looks like whatever Lukashenko said to Nazarbayev has had the desired result:
“Nazarbayev Urges People to Stick By President Tokayev to Overcome Crisis and Save the Country”
This is the first thing he has said in days….. hmm. He is also in the capital: https://tass.com/world/1384975
“Ex-Chief of National Security Committee Masimov Detained on High Treason Charges” .
We are now seeing who was behind this attempted coup and who helped the Western color revolution from within the Government..
One year ago Belo Russian consumers paid around 40 euros of natural gas equal to 10 000 KWh. In Europe electricity has been 6 months record high. The price of 10 000 KWh is now around 1600 – 2 200 euros. I just wonder how great it is to live in “free world” with just strangling economical pressure. Post modern nonsense of “Green Energy” and antirussian hatred are playing big role decimating ordinary people.
MI6, The Firm, Richard Moore – I have a dossier on him . . . . . . . . and Russia has nothing to worry about. He’s in the Clouseau mould with roughly 10% of Kim Philby’s brains.
Apparently, if he was Russian, without connections, he be a 2nd class officer in the army.
It seems that situation is returning under control. I am shocked both by the velocity of this uprising and the velocity of the response: still I am not sure why Russia, knowing in advance what was boiling, waited until the violence explosion, even if they were super ready to intervene within the CSTO framework. If this was calculated as a demonstration of their strength, or to demonstrate that CSTO is effective… wow, risky but well done!
Now, as Pepe points out at the end, the big picture: what will be the effect on the talks of the next week? Apparently, the West tried to stage something to achieve a stronger position, but it ended exactly as the opposite.
The metaphor of the bridge has been used to describe Kazakhstan’s diplomacy with the Big Powers. Those nations should be prescient of the danger that lies ahead. It will be too late to cross that other proverbial bridge when they come to it – there will be no bridge to cross.
Does Chevron works in this country???
Just like it did in the Ukraine in 2014???
So “fuck the eu” should be working there……
How much did it cost the U$ this time????
Está no adiantado da hora alguém colocar o Reino Unido de volta a sua insignificância como Ilha que é!
Talvez também enquadrar os europeus com síndrome histórica apocalíptica de volta nos arreios e soltos como os ciganos que são desde a Diáspora Bíblica.
O restante do Império descerá por gravidade, já está acontecendo…
It’s too late for someone to put the UK back to its insignificance for the Island that it is!
Perhaps also frame Europeans with historical apocalyptic syndrome back in the saddle and loose like the gypsies they have been since the Biblical Diaspora.
The rest of the Empire will descend by gravity, it’s already happening…
Let’s hope that Kazakhstan government will cancel the building of the US level 4 bio-weapons lab it agreed to with the US recently. The US has surrounded Russia with bio-weapons labs in ex-Soviet republics. The last thing these countries need is bio-weapons labs.
Not particularly for this article, but more in general:
Pepe Escobar is already firmly on my radar for quite some years now. Whenever I come across an article of his hand (on whatever website I happen to visit), my ears go up and I read it. Pepe never fails to educate me about something I did not yet know.
So, as general as my comment is meant to be, I want to sincerely THANK YOU, Pepe, for al the enlightening work you have done and still are doing!
I wish you a long life, to (if I’m allowed to speak for more people as well) be with us, to inform and enlighten us.
Bless you, Pepe!!!