The title of this article is a quote by the famous Chinese general, strategist, philosopher, and writer Sun Tzu who lived 2500 years ago. And while it is true that warfare has dramatically changed over the past millennia (for example, operational art was added as an intermediate level between tactics and strategy), the fundamental logic of Sun Tzu still applies. To grossly oversimplify this issue, you could say that tactics are the means towards an end which has to be defined and the definition of that end goal is strategy. Again, this is ridiculously oversimplified, but for our purposes that is good enough.
The above is highly pertinent to the situation in the Ukraine. But first, a crucial reminder: the Ukrainian military was pretty much destroyed in the first month of the war. Both Andrei Martyanov and myself have written about this many times, but if you want to hear that from another source, I recommend this article by Big Serge on Substack (a good website which I recommend to all). Or listen to the Macgregor videos. And there are plenty more out there (Moon of Alabama is another good one).
During that first month of the war, the West was so busy trying to present the Russian incursion towards Gostmel as both:
- A major Russian defeat and
- A major Russian massacre of civilians
the Western media was focusing on that nonsense, while what was completely lost in this propaganda war was the destruction of the Ukronazi armed forces.
The Ukronazis, however, understood what was happening and agreed to negotiations. As we all know, the AngloZionists sent Bojo to Kiev to stop what looked like an imminent end to the war.
Anyway, let’s look at the goals of each side in the early phase of the war:
- The Ukronazis were ready to attack the Donbass with the hope of repeating what NATO did to the disarmed Serbian “protection areas” in the Krajinas (operation Storm).
- The Russians preempted that attack, but not by directly attacking the Ukronazi force in the Donbass, but by basically destroying the Ukronazi armed forces in the entire Ukraine.
By any standard of common sense the war should have ended in March. Why? Because, again, the entire Ukronazi military was basically destroyed and disorganized. Then the “geniuses” in the West came up with a very simple solution:
- Send all of the former Warsaw Treaty Organization (no, it was never called a “pact”) equipment from all the former WTO countries to the Ukraine.
- Send more Ukrainian soldiers to the frontlines
Initially, that approach looked very promising, but that did not last very long.
That 2nd iteration of the Ukronazis was also destroyed by Russia, albeit at a much slower pace because the Russians were faced with some very thorny problems:
- A lot of the ex-WTO hardware was very effective, not only because Soviet kit generally is, but because much of it had been modernized.
- The Ukronazis were more than willing to incur major losses if that could delay Russian advances.
- The Russians simply did not have the kind of manpower needed for either static defense or even to control the entire line of contact.
- And since the Russians chose an economy of force type of maneuver/mobile defense (which was their only option anyway since the Ukronazis vastly outnumbered Russians) they could not hold ground and that, in turn, meant that the local Ukrainians could not count on the Russians staying and protecting them.
- The entire NATO C4ISR capabilities were gradually made available to the Ukronazis which seriously complicated Russian operations while greatly aiding the Ukrainian artillery and air force (hundreds of ex-WTO aircraft were also delivered).
- The Ukronazi forces in the Donbass were *very* seriously dug in (they had 8 years and an infinite amount of Western money to build defenses!), and the Russians were not willing to sacrifice their soldiers in bloody frontal attacks. Using heavy weaponry was also not an option, because Ukronazis were hiding inside towns and cities and thus flattening the Ukronazi defenses would have meant killing thousands of civilians.
Yet, in spite of it all, Russia succeeded in destroying most of the ex-WTO hardware and forcing the Ukronazis into exchanging “bodies for artillery shells” – a crazy, immoral and futile tactic which simply could not be sustainable. As a result, the Ukrainian KIA/MIA figures further skyrocketed, but nobody in the West cared in the least.
What is important here is that not only did the Ukronazis lose a lot of hardware and soldiers, but they lost a lot of their *best* soldiers (entire brigades, and the best ones, were lost around Bakhmut!). That means that while NATO could tell Kiev to mobilize more and more men to send to the front, most of those which were mobilized and hastily trained could not really compensate for the huge Ukronazi losses. Training Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukraine was dangerous (the Russians missile strikes meant that nowhere in the Ukraine was there a safe location to do the training), and training the Ukrainians abroad was safer, but also required a much bigger effort for a much smaller force.
And, inevitably, the ex-WTO hardware delivered to the regime in Kiev in HUGE numbers was also gradually destroyed in Russian strikes.
Furthermore, geography is a bitch and, in our case, the entire Donbass is one huge cauldron, open only on the Western side, which makes it rather tricky to plan anything more than small, local, attacks. For the Russians, however, this means that they can attack from any one of these axes: from the North, the East and the South or even any combination therefore. By now, following the partial mobilization, Russia does have the figures needed to choose any option she wants.
Pretty soon, the West ran out of ex-WTO weapons.
The West responded by sending wave after wave of “volunteers”, PMCs, even “deserters” (like this US Navy SEAL). Recruitment offices where hastily organized worldwide and the Russian side began hearing more and more radio transmissions not in Russian or Ukrainian, but in Polish and English (and even Arabic!)
The problem now is hardware.
First, NATO cannot replace “one for one” ex-WTO MBTs, IFV/APCs, SAM, etc. Not only is NATO hardware expensive, there are simply not enough stores to fully compensate for the huge losses inflicted by the Russians.
Second, WTO hardware was not only familiar to the Ukrainians, but it was much easier to secure the kind of supply/maintenance flows needed to operate it than would be the case with NATO hardware (which is mostly inferior to ex-WTO kit, with a few exceptions).
Third, most of NATO hardware performed terribly. None of the promised Wunderwaffen made any real difference, at least in military terms. In terms of murdered civilians, the Russians have now reported that since the delivery of long range munitions to the NATO forces in the Ukraine (because that is what they are), the number of civilian victims murdered by NATO has increased by a factor of four!
But, of course, nobody in the West cares about that.
Initially, the West responded by sending all its own surplus gear, old stocks, especially against a promise by the USA to compensate for these systems sent to the Ukraine with much newer systems. Pretty quickly those stocks ended up chewed-up by the Russian meat grinder too.
In other words, the Russians also destroyed this 3rd iteration of the “Ukrainian” military (in reality NATO military).
Which brings us to today’s situation.
The Empire is now facing a simple and extremely dangerous dilemma: NATO forces in the Ukraine are running out of both hardware and personnel.
If the West sends, say, a company or even a battalion of MBTs to Lvov and several Patriot batteries to protect Kiev, that will make no military difference on the ground. Yes, quantity does have a qualitative dimension and such limited deliveries of weapon systems and personnel might make for great “noise” (in Sun Tzu’s sense), but make no difference.
And if the West sends a large enough force to make a difference, that would inevitably result in a major continental war NATO cannot win.
This all begs the question: what is the West’s true goal in the Ukraine?
Let me suggest a few:
- Prevent a Ukronazi/NATO defeat
- Make the war as costly as possible for Russia
- Save face
There are problems with all three of these goals, the main one being that none of them qualify as “strategy” (they are too vague to begin with). The second problem is that the West does not have the means to achieve any of these goals. And the third is by sticking to such utterly unrealistic goals will make the inevitable defeat and subsequent loss of face for the entire West even worse.
So what can the US/NATO bring to the table?
- A world class C4ISR (very useful, but also potentially very vulnerable)
- A world class submarine force (useful only to fire cruise missiles)
- A large amount of subsonic and mostly outdated cruise missiles
- A comparatively small ground force (with no real air defenses)
- Air forces which have no experience operating in a *very* dangerous environment.
- A very robust nuclear triad
Since we know from Sun Tzu that “tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat” we can immediately see that none of these capabilities has any chance to avoid a NATO defeat. In other words, US commanders will soon have to face an even worse choice: defeat or nuclear war.
I submit that the West currently has neither (real, meaningful) tactics nor any strategy.
All I see is magical thinking, narcissistic delusions, a mindset shaped by centuries of relative impunity and an over-arching, blind, hatred of Russia and everything Russian.
Hardly the ingredients for a victory (under any definition thereof) against the most powerful continental warfare military on the planet.
Excellent article, Andrei!!!
I’m honestly starting to wonder if the globalists actually WANT a nuclear war, believing (naively) that they would survive and have power over what’s left in the world. They are crazy, evil, depraved, and delusional, after all.
My thoughts also, the western world is so deeply in debt that this may be their demented thinking of moving out of debt, total insanity.
I know in the Vietnam conflict we took opportunity to test new weapons and tactics this thought came to me for the conflict in Ukraine also.
They need it. So that their rulers little state can “become the new ruling state of the world”.
The cartoon pictures from the 20s with people jumping out of high-rises post market crash, comes to mind.
The choice of death, rather than face poverty. Suicide, when faced with loss of power.
I was speaking to a Captain (Retired) in the British army who had some experience training Ukranian forces. This was two years ago, when he was the general manager of the place where I was the senior maintenance engineer (Contract). We were discussing Ukraine/Russia generally as he was speaking about the atrocities there (Captured militia/UKR troops being burned alive in pits), and I was saying civil wars are like that, as my own country’s (Irish Republic) experience showed.
He mentioned that a lot of senior people in the British army that he had contact with thought the West had made a mistake in plundering Russia after the fall of the SU, which was his way of agreeing with my position at the time. (Pro Putin, anti Europe).
We both disliked each other intensely by the end of that assignment. He knew I was the Grandson of an Irish Republican. I knew him as from a British Military family. What astonished me was his ignorance and naivety, as well as his arrogance. Presumably he thought I was disloyal to the Crown, and argumentative to boot.
What relevance does this have to your excellent summary? Basically that there is no strategy on the Western side. Just a posture, or approach. This approach does not seem to be guided by an ultimate aim other than ‘loot the world’.
So, that is my feeling, informed by more than this single encounter, which I use just to illustrate the tensions in my society, and the attitude of the hereditary mercenaries of the ruling strata. It is hard for me to understand them, so I sometimes struggle to comprehend their motives, but if you want it in one word, I think it is ‘entitlement’.
Thank you for your comment which fully corroborates what I hear from many veterans.
“I sometimes struggle to comprehend their motives, but if you want it in one word, I think it is ‘entitlement’.”
An excellent insight. I would just add – a sense of entitlement beyond the normal earned, is a marked characteristic if the narcissistic character and mind set. Your observation supports the observation that these people are almost genetically predisposed to narcissism let alone brought up to indulge it,- an observation of the entire Ruling Class I’ve had – both the Plantagenet class of England and Washington Cabal of US.
There are many cute psychological labels to paper-over acute mental illness, of which there is no treatment or cure.
Agree 100% with you Stephen. What troubles me greatly as an Irishman living in Ireland is that every single Irish political party is Russophobic and supports NATO in its war against Russia.
I support Russia 100%. War is politics by other means. The Russians did their very best to avoid war. I will be part of operation Zplus to denazify and dewoke Ireland , where I live. I hope Russia can win this war quickly. The good news is NATO and EU are terminally wounded.
The head of the fish stinks. Only the press attachés and a couple of leaders are heard from the parties, it does not mean that the membership and sympathizers think the same.
It is interesting James, isn’t it? We have our republic because our Grandparents did what the people of Donbas are doing now, yet the Irish Government is taking the side of the colonialists, I am both mystified and furious.
Thanks for your comment.
Sadly, the same happened here in the US, Stephen. Our 2020 election was stolen from we the people (a coup by the deep state), and what did we do? Not a damn thing. The people in the Donbass showed us what to do back in 2014….FIGHT! They did not recognize the illegitimate coup. But we here in the US simply rolled over and let it happen to us. Our Founders must be rolling over in their graves. We did not fight for the republic, which they fought for and provided to us. I am embarrassed to be an American. The people of the Donbass put us all to shame.
With the exception of Clare Daly and Mick Wallace perhaps (EU MPs). They strike me as honest and brave people.
This is because the manner in which the west gained its dominance over the world in the first place during the colonial era was through a series of “happy accidents” & not a result of grand strategy. What drove the colonial empires to so thoroughly explore & colonise the planet during the 1400s, 1500s, 1600s etc. was an intense competition between themselves for domination & the right to plunder. The net result has been that in the west there is a sense of superiority & entitlements amongst the so-called “elites” – the ruling class, or echelon, that originated in colonialism & has resulted in this notion that the planet & all that is in it belongs to them. This attitude filters down through the professional classes, academia, the media, the legal profession & so forth. I wouldn’t say this is a characteristic of the populations, the ruling class aims to keep the masses ignorant & as a consequence most people do not even have any conception of what the world wide network of commerce, communications, resource extraction, military & intel operations, actually consists of. The average person in the UK, or England, just as in the US, has no clue what is going on in the world or what role his/her own government has in it. There are exceptions, but they are the minority. It does not mean the masses have no responsibility in all of this, it is just over their heads, for the most part. This imbalance where the west has such disproportionate power, & therefore wealth, could never go on for ever. It is something that it has lasted this long, 500 years give or take. But now the problem that Russia has in assuming the thankless task of eliminating the last remaining vestiges of western dominance out of a need to protect themselves, is that they are faced with a western imperialist mentality that can not accept or conceive of a world in which they are not the masters. Idiot Borell said it recently, we are the golden billion – & idiot John Kerry/Cohen mirrored these remarks in a slightly different context at Davos using the invented “climate crisis” to reassert the idea that they, people like him, are essentially God sent to rule the world. This is exactly the mindset that led to Hitler & his Nazis. It is a form of insanity. Russia will be forced to destroy this mentality, for its own safety, because for as long as you have a western hemisphere run by a class of people who believe in their bones that they are the rightful masters of this world, the world will be at war.
Brilliant. Thank you!
Thank you. Interesting read.
A shame that we cannot stop out insane leaders from starting WWIII.
Wait until the Ukraine unleashes its ultimate waepon. Z’ himself will come to the front in his high heels. The enitre front, Ukraine as well as Russian, will be in shock and awe. Then when the winds are prevailing east, Z’ will take off that shirt that he has been wearing for the past year. Russian forces, and anybody else downwind, will be overcome by BO. grrr…….
‘ But seriously, we should keep in mind the U.S. along with their NATO poodle is not really interested in winning or solving anything. The U.S. oligarchs are more interested in perpetuating the mess as long as possible for the purposes perpetuating thier money making corruption scams that leverage off continued war. Low level conflict whether they are winning or losing is just fine for them. And that is the strategy; to keep the mess going on and on.
Robert: I believe you have got the real game figured out. All the rest about conquering Russia and “winning wars” is I believe merely second level ideological propaganda for the purposes of selling their real agenda, that being milking their preferred power game for profits. Stephen Gavin uses the word “entitlement.” He is right too. At root all of this is really just the self entitled hubris of capitalist egoism. Personal profit drives all and the rest is merely self justifying ideology and propaganda without which the capitalist profits would look too bare to withstand scrutiny. The ideologues who pump up the emotionally insane rationales are servants of the deeper motive- hunger for immediate capital profit. They do fit together nicely however.
And yet the MIC gravy-train can be stopped, as Viet Nam and Afghanistan have demonstrated.. An old-fashioned ass-kicking works wonders as an attitude adjustment for the war-mongers.. Russia has a long way to go before they make believers out of the Nato hordes in Ukraine..
True. But the conflict in the former Ukraine is not a low level conflagration. It is a major war of civilizations: on one side we have the openly Satanic West with its Polish, Romanian, Bulgarian, Georgian lap dogs. On the other we have Russia for whom this war is existential.
Your on to something. Z’ making a performance, where Russians laugh themselves to death, is the last straw.
very good point
plus, how do you keep your population (US or Europe) distracted? A “just” foreign war. This leaves politicians with a free hand in domestic politics, where opportunities for profiting are infinite, especially when you make the laws…
this will not last forever though, so let’s keep hope
The Neocons will certainly be favorable to starting a nuclear war; but, will the military comply? WWIII would certainly mess up the cushy MIC jobs for the generals. Perhaps a coup in the offing…?
Thought experiment: What would be different if all the ‘leaders’ of zone A (UK and USA very much included) were actually quislings working to destroy their nations? What if all of them have been paid off and promised privileged positions in the multipolar order afterwards?
It has happened before, famously many of the defeated Nazis, and later defeated communists, enjoyed cushy jobs in the USA. My favourite example being Ex-Stasi chief Markus Wolf being hired as a consultant by USA Homeland Security under GW Bush. Gorbachev certainly did well on the zone A lecture circuit post dissolution of the CCCP.
We know Biden and many other USA politicians, Republicans included, have been well funded by China for some time. This is part of a pattern dating to the 1970s activities of Kissinger, Nixon, and GHW Bush. It is what one would expect if every country is already enslaved by a transnational elite. Perhaps all of the nuclear brinksmanship is just kabuki theatre? If so, expect a controlled economic demolition of zone A as impressive as the fall of WTC 7. In the aftermath, the former golden billion will be much poorer and controlled by social credit scores and rationing. No wonder we like to speculate about nuclear war. Sudden death in a thermonuclear fireball is less scary than what is more likely to be our fate.
From my armchair: If Russia doesn’t blunder, it seems as if their forces will ,effectively, have swapped positions with the Ukranian forces along the ‘eastern front’. This implies that, in order for Ukraine to make a major offensive to break through their lines into ,now official, “Russian territory’, Ukraine would have to have, what is the multiplier, a minimum of three to one, advantage (offense over defense). Theoretically, this would mean a full on war against the Russian state by a US/Nato coalition. This would be an insane idea. However, IMO, there is a potential domino effect in the consideration of such: 1) Russia will now initiate a war economy far into the future in preparation for such a catastrophe; 2) The US will do its best to rearm Europe to match Russia in conventtional war ( no predictions on how the Europeans will take to this), 3) The US will blunder along in an attempt to prosecute ‘endless war’ on the European front (forget a pivot to Asia) – unfortunately, Ukraine has become a disposal proxy – the long term objective being to ‘weaken’ Russia in order to ‘weaken’ China in this awful game of ‘world domination’. Ukraine loses, doesn’t necessarily mean Russia has ‘won’ if that results in a delaying action for the ‘opposing’ sides ( at least no nukes for the time being). Irregardless, IMO, Russia will probably have it’s ‘ducks in order’, whereas the US will run around like ‘chickens’ with their heads cut off’.
Look at the Western “leaders”, all some combination of degenerate, old, weak, or sick (DOWS).
Who is next in line for POTUS? Probably Newsom. Newsom has dyslexia. He can’t read.
He’s a messenger boy for a collection of powerful DOWS people. Their endgame is simply not to lose what they have before they die, at best, yes tactics.
Trump could end all this bs quickly if he was allowed, but he isn’t going to be allowed, at least by the present rules of the game. Trump represents the rational nationalist impulses of the West to survive. He himself is a clown, but he is the ego to lead, and he is able to mobilize action behind him as a leader.
The story of the West right now is akin to King Theodin and Wormtongue in LOTR. A virulent mental illness has been spread through the population that allows it to be manipulated. Will the people’s of the West awaken before it goes terminal?
There’s one more point as to what is the West’s true goal in the Ukraine? It is the longer the war in the Ukraine takes the more money those corrupt NATO and their Ukrainian proxies can put in their pockets. The Anglozionist side is so rotten to the core with only purpose in life being covert 007 business. With all that money sent to Ukraine, only perhaps 10 percent goes to Ukrainian war efforts and the rest is gobbled up before even reaching Kiev. That’s how American tax payers’ money is spent in Ukraine. While average Americans are kept busy questioning their own natural genders on daily basis and other woke nonsense promoted by the MSM.
‘War is a Racket’. It will also serve as a distraction for the coming economic collapse of the west.
Andrei, as long as the Western currencies, the US Dollar, the European Euro, and the English Pound are not “resized”, chaos, wars, and sufferings will not cease. The hegemon´s power, its monetary helm over the Western World is worth a nuclear mess, the Samson ritual: The absolute power ought to be destroyed absolutely.
What is the West’s true goal in the Ukraine?
To Prevent a Ukronazi/NATO defeat
To Make the war as costly as possible for Russia
To Save face
None of them qualify as strategy.
The West does not have the means to achieve any of these goals.
Sticking to such goals will make the inevitable defeat for the entire West.
Your last sentence explains both a strategy, The means, and the purpose for this confrontation with Russia.
The goal for the Global Elite, is to drive western Nations into an existential war against Russia, ultimately depleting Western Nations of Energy, Production, Finance, Military. Thus resulting in the final loss of National sovereignty of all Western Nations.
Today the West is hijacked by Globalist Political Agents driven this Globalist agenda.
@ A. Dane
I agree with your thought’s. ,they ( The Globalist realize that they have failed to conquer the planet ) ,
so part of the Earth ( Western ) is better than nothing.
The greatest weapon they have ( the owners of the Federal reserve) is the U.S. Dollars ,
As long as the Dollar is excepted world wide they are still in the game ! ,once the U.S. Dollar is rejected
It will be Game Over !
“Today the West is hijacked by Globalist Political Agents driven this Globalist agenda.”
Yep, that is what it is.
The Economic destruction of Western Europe will also bring about the social environment which brought forth the Nazis and Hitler. Seen in a decade or two perspective.
Yes. we see it already, as the twins NAZIsm and Fascism are starting to bloom in western Nations.
All the way from the US, into Canada, over to Ukraine, back to Germany and down to Italy.
However we have also seen a rise of this awful ism in the Nordic Nations.
It took 3 Generations to forget what Europe learned during WWII.
Our ancestors must be turning in their graves.
Agree. It’s painful. The rocket speed to lunacy is unbelivable.
I don’t know if you’ve read Crooke’s latest essay, “The Most Egregious Mistake”, but he points to the why this moment has arrived but like all of us has no real answer for what occurs next. Clearly, Crooke, Yves Smith, myself, and many others agree the Financial War–which is The Big Picture–will continue after the smaller picture in Ukraine is finished. But although the basic tracing of the outline is finished, the filling in of the illustration remains to be started. In what appears to be the first manifestation of a change in China’s policy, we have this very aggressive reply to Yellen and company via this report provided by Sputnik, “China Tells US to ‘Solve Its Debt Problem’ Instead of Worrying About Zambia’s”:
I expect hardball globally as the Outlaw US Empire can’t really project power anymore. The EAEU and BRI have merged, and it’s very possible the ASEAN will join both SCO and BRICS as an organization. And then there’re the current dealings within Africa where Lavrov is now and the new Chinese FM Gang was just ten days ago.
I don’t know if Sun Tsu mentioned anything about Truth because in his day there were no information wars. But today Russia and China own the Truth in the eyes of the Rest of the World (RoW), and that will make it very difficult for what remains of the West to recover its lost credibility, which when it comes to contracts and development agreements/loans is huge. It’s very possible for much IMF/World Bank debt to be declared onerous and written off/defaulted on. And with the bifurcation of the world into two currency zones–Dollar/Euro Zone and New International Trading Currency–there’s no way for the West to retaliate as it’s done so often in the past.
Thus, because of the West’s very weak financial position, it will most likely lose the Financial War too, and the paradigm will change. Will that cause the West to commit nuclear harikari despite still having mountains of mostly worthless paper in their own currency zone? I’m betting it won’t.
China (and anyone with the basic understanding of Economics) is absolutely right. US has only 5-6 years left before its Debt problem blows up and destroys the US bond market, which then destroys the currency, and as a result the whole edifice, called the US “service” economy, implodes with a BANG.
US total debt in 2022 was $91 trillion
…(or 380% of GDP)!!!
And that does not include $200-300 trillion in Government estimated liabilities (promises to retirees to pay pensions, Medicaid / Medicare). When you have a Mt. Everest of Debt like this, you can ONLY afford it if the interest rate is basically 0%.
Well that is coming to an end in the next few years:
– Who in his sane mind will lend you his money at 0% when inflation is devouring 10% of purchasing power per year?! The right answer is — ONLY Mr. Printing Press is stupid enough. Everyone else is a lot smarter…
…and when Mr. Printing Press keeps “lending” money to Gov’t and Corporations — what’s happening with inflation?! Correct, it keeps rising until 2 things happen:
1) The Bond market collapses as there are no more “buyers” (the Printing Press / FED is the ONLY buyer left) — that’s what is happening now as we speak in Japan, and
2) currency (US$, JapYen, Euro) collapses into hyperinflation — the result — GDP blows up into pieces.
And if US GDP had been constructed of “real goods”, it will have been able to recover relatively quickly with new currency, new (sane) government, etc. But 85% of the US GDP is “vaporwave” — haircuts, massages, McDonalds french fries, and Wall Street speculators / crooks.
What will happen to that 85% in the hyperinflationary collapse?! Correct, it will disappear and will only come back in, say, 15-30 years if the rest of the “Economy” begins producing something “real”, rather than virtual stuff…
So, Chinese are giving the US a good advice. Though they (and 100% of the rest of the world) know it is TOO LATE to save this patient. The question in everyone’s mind is only will this poor chap kick the bucket? In 2023? In 2024 (with Elections + Civil War to boot)? Or will it somehow manage to last till 2030?!…
And of course another problem everyone is concerned about — when this hugely fat zombified gorilla collapses, all normal countries and people want to be AS FAR AWAY as possible not to be splattered with all the blood, foul excrements, and dead brain matter…
Thank you, Andrei, for all your comments and reflections.
Besides the war scene we have the economic war going on. Again, US and EU governments have already utilized all their “weapons” and missiles, which backfired mostly all.And again, they used shortsighted tactics without strategy. Whereas Russia analysed and reflected the results and deflected resulting efficacy of these measures.
As world class chessplayers, the Russian government is thinking at the results of several chess moves ahead in the future and is therefore waiting until the opponents stop moving. Nevertheless, the Russians are preparing diligently the answer(s) and will attack when time has come.
I agree to your conclusion regarding Nato’s endgame gambit, however I think (and hope) that the Russians will execute the economic answer before the West will be able to push the button.
One hour ago I saw the video in which MIG-35 takes off, with The Kinjal with (they said) a nuclear bomb! Front news was: WW3 is beginning! I asked muself: where could Russians throw it: to Kiyev – to kill 4mln. civilians – why? Or onto Donbas – to kill own soldiers??
But the news circulate, preparing the nuclear provocation. How can it be stopped? I had an idea: at the moment NATO explodes fake nuclear bomb, let Russians explode next 20 of them in different parts of world, and than conclude: “Mars is atacking!?”
Just reported here that a significant escalation of equipment from all major nato country’s.
So my guess is that a few more tanks are going to be extinguished and the price of gas will rise, along with everything else.
Russia is fighting this US/NATO war on many fronts and has been preparing for many years for the inevitable.
Ukraine is the Miltary visible war. But there is also the Economic/Monetary war ,when Russia was excluded from the Western Central Bank system and the SWIFT system.
.It countered the attack on the Ruble by the simpe expedient of demanding payment in Rubles for its oil and gas, thus creating the petro-ruble and giving it a solid commodity base.
It has been preparing allies for support using the diplomatic skills of Lavrov and the self interest of oil and gas exporting Nations , who have long suffered under the lash of the Petrodollar.
Russia and Saudi now control Opec and are in the process of creating its Gas cartel equivalent.
Russia is witdrawing from most Western Institutions that have long been undermined and infiltrated by the US. but may persist with the UN.
The BRICS+ are forming the equivalent of these Institutions to the IMF,World Bank etc.
Soon the manipulations of Gold price in the London Bullion Market will be replaced by a more trustworthy Moscow Gold Centre, The true value of Gold will have a startling effect on world currency values,especially the US$.
As many are aware,the war on Russia and soon China is an attempt by the US to maintain its hegemonic power of its Reserve currency and Petrodollar.
This is its Achilles heel and the New Silk Roads transiting Central Asia have nullified the US Navy chokeholds on the Maritime sea routes.
Russia now realises it is a full world war situation and Putins recent decree to prevent Russian Corporations paying dividends to outside stake holders has created panic in the Financial Markets.
This has resulted in Russian Stockmarket listings falling off a cliff, and being hoovered up for pennies by the Russian Sovereign Fund.This is in effect a Nationalisation and a fatal blow to the Oligarch class.
This also prevents Western Financial interests controlling Russian Company strategy.
The options of the West are few,with some considering a desperate attempt by the West to consider a Nuclear strike as a last resort.
I disagree ,I believe the US will use a weapon with plausible deniability and which they have used on North Korea,Vietnam ,Cuba and recently China, That is Biological warfare.
We are dealing with Satanic evil, embedded in the Empire of Lies and must never underestimate their evil intent ,leveraged by their imminent loss of control of the money flows they have held for near 500 years.
Yes. Good points all, especially in the fact we are dealing with a satanic evil. The same hatred of Russia is also projected on its own populations in US, Germany, France, and England. We are dealing with pure evil.
Whenever USA/ The West says something, it’s safe to assume the opposite is true.
I think USA’s real goal is to weaken Russia (which is delusional), destroy Europe, create a failed state in Ukraine, create poverty and slavery among it’s own population, and super profits for military contractors.
You can be sure that they don’t care one iota about democracy or the USA people.
Earlier in the SMO I watched a video of laughing neo-nazi thugs raiding a small house party in order to pressgang the teenagers. The kids were all made to lie face down and the one nearest the camera was still clutching his phone, so tightly that his knuckles were white.
What happened to him and the other teenagers? A weeks bullshit training then bussed to the front under armed guard, the ordered to die for the glory of Ukraine by an officer who then drove off in the opposite direction.
Perhaps he tried to call his mum, which was intercepted by a row of Russian soldiers sitting in a truck full of computers that then relayed the coordinates of the meaningless hamlet where he and the other kids were huddled resulting in its total obliteration with thermobaric munitions. If you’re not incinerated instantly then the shockwaves with burst your lungs, eardrums and bladder.
Since then the pressganging has expanded to include fifteen and sixteen year olds, So I want this war to end as soon as possible.
Why Russia hasn’t had a private talk with the US leaders and told them that this ever more escalation is leading to direct war between the US and Russia. And that if they don’t stop before that happens the US will be totally destroyed. I have no idea. But what I do know is that because they haven’t that war is creeping ever closer. So today it’s revealed that after all the arguing over suppling US and German battle tanks to Ukraine,both countries are now going to supply them.How long until they start to supply planes to the nazi Ukraine regime,I don’t know. But probably they will do that too.After that what is next,troops? Until Russia talks “straight” to the US about what is in the cards for them,we are moving closer and closer to the point of no return. I think someone in power in both countries needs to read “the Guns of August” to see where we are and where we are going.
Do you know that Russia hasn’t had a private talk with the US leaders? No one who knew would ever tell me.
One move at a time, they see the writing on the wall, and correspond accordingly.
I still don’t see how once their model fails (dies), the foundation upon which they were founded, they continue to operate as if those conditions were no longer in place, or valid.
Something somewhere, somehow, shall materialize to show this weakness, and should this turn public, the confidence that was once insisted upon for transactions, will secretly turn to dust and then who knows what can, or can’t, occur.
Some videos for today.
Russian ‘Viking’ group snipers adapt to new combat challenges:
Kiev regime uses “HIMARS” rockets to shell Donetsk Republic’s civilians:
Russian Lancet drone destroys another Kiev regime self-propelled howitzer:
Kiev regime losses near Kleshcheyevka (+18):
Another destroyed and burning Kiev regime column:
Russian Ka-52 and Mi-28 helicopters destroy Kiev regime military vehicles:
Russian self-propelled howitzer pounds enemy position:
Russian Msta-S self-propelled howitzer makes precise strike on an enemy position:
Russian Su-25s conduct airstrikes:
Russian armored column beats off enemy ambush:
Kiev regime troops continue openly flying Nazi banners:
Ukrainian soldiers publicly reject being used as cannon fodder:
Protesters in Warsaw rally against Polish support for Kiev regime:
“US commanders will soon have to face an even worse choice: defeat or nuclear war.”
That is where it is headed. Hopefully there will be a “Suez moment” which will make the nuclear option pointless.
Unless their goal is the WEF goal: massive population reduction and economic destruction under a world government.
Bravo, Russians! The chicken hawks who rule the west have no strategy, and never did. These creatures who rule the west were bluffing and you didn’t take the bait. The narrative these demons were pushing on their citizens is falling apart. The truth is slowly coming out. The question is: do these demonic cretins back down, or double down? I propose Russia humiliate them completely, followed by public trials broadcast worldwide. Then perhaps public executions and long jail sentences for the survivors. Finally, asset strip every penny of their ill-gotten fortunes. As icing on the cake, banish the rest to a remote island, where they could be sterilized, so as not to pollute the earth with any offspring.
For more good information, check out theinteldrop.org. Cheers!
Reading that article by Serge was such a relief. After months of diarrhea lapping propaganda from Guardian “journalists” reading an actual article about the actual facts on the ground from an actual writer instead of a MIC whore feels like a cramped muscle in my brain can finally relax. I knew Russia would win simply because of how much they dominated Ukraine eight years ago, it’s impossible for Russia to decline so precipitously and Ukraine to strengthen so exponentially in less than a decade. Still, the information warfare wall is real – almost no mainstream US media mentions the horrible – HORRIBLE casualties Ukraine takes, which would be by FAR the most important thing to report on, instead it’s just op-ed after op-ed of slava ukraini let’s all give putler the heave-ho. Argh!
Still, while I have no doubt Russia will be triumphant I despair for my own country USA. There is no real opposition to this war from either the left or the right, no advocates against white-christian brother wars for the Republicans, no advocates against banker wars for the democrats. It’s all death to the Russians let’s all compete to shovel as much money into the MIC as we can – WE ARE TRILLIONS IN DEBT!!! I had hope that the nation of the Founding Fathers would be restored in my lifetime, a nation of landed peasants and citizen soldiers, a nation of liberty, economic prosperity and self determination. But every year the grip of the synagogue of satan grows stronger. I read a horrible article recently, I won’t link it but you can Google it, about a gay “marrried” (guh) couple adopting two boys in Atlanta. The gay “couple” of course adopted them to do vile things, abominable things. Not just do these things but brag about them to others and even pimped them out to others of their ilk. Evil incarnate. It turns out that these gay men were fast tracked to be given these kids by our government because that is our governments prerogative. Gay rights! Gay marriage! Isn’t it great?! Don’t think so?! We’ll will cancel you and make sure you never work again, for speaking out against the rape of children.
The first thing I thought of while reading that terrible article was “this would NEVER happen in Russia.” For so many reasons obviously. Anyway, sorry for ranting, the only advise I can give Russians is to build your army as big and strong as possible, a ten million man force at least, with thousands upon thousands of the heaviest monster tanks and artillery batteries ever fielded. Don’t even bother with prototyping just make a thousand of each and send them forward while the next model thousand is cooking on the assembly line. America can no longer get anyone to join, our army is 25-30% below recruitment, and of course our industrial base is now in China (thanks brilliant ELITES). But willing recruits or not, industry or not, the Anglo Zionists will fight to the bitterest end because defeat for them means certain and deserved death. This is a war not for Ukraine but for the soul of mankind and will not end until the Washington viper nest is put to fire.
Glory to the sons of Stalingrad
The US Deep State and the Uni Party support this war because they’re all at the trough and their money masters, globalists and money changers- want them to support it.
But the people of the US.. that’s another thing. I have met anyone that supports it… I have seen some fools in their cars with Ukrainian flags… but very, very, very few.
Ukraine (NATO) sends several of those ‘converted’ old Soviet cruise missiles ( I cannot remember missile type) to hit Moscow, say, killing scores of civilians, Kremlin personnel etc. etc..
Have s Russian sub off the east coast fire (A very daring move; a smaller Russian version of the ‘Doolittle’ raid ” A pin prick, but it will strike thru their heart!”) an equal number of ‘caliber’ cruise missiles; with an as close as possible equal number of deaths as possible, into Washington DC: Get on the ‘hot line’ and say; “Tit for Tat’ the ball is now in your court, do we go to war, or do you come to your senses and negotiate in Ernest!”
I believe (Hope) that such a strike (Very risky) would tell the US, that they are not invincible, and that the US has vulnerabilities; and that, a lot of the American people/ and what ever political leaders, realize that this war/situation must be ended before it is to late!
As a side note, it really says something that the US is reduced to panhandling in Cuba and Venezuela for Soviet era equipment.
Perhaps goals and strategy are different things, though not unrelated. Of course a strategy must suit the high level goal. And if the tactics don’t serve the strategy, they are a waste of time.
And maybe I haven’t groked this after all these years.
“what is the West’s true goal in the Ukraine?”
I suggest their larger goal is to prevent Russia from having a competitive say in international politics, and to “harvest” Russia by extracting rent or plunder from Russia forever.
Their work in Ukraine is a larger scale tactic meant to
gain position to subject Russia to nuclear blackmail
gain position to subject Russia to covert biological and general sabotage
gain position to deny Russia access to the Black Sea, it’s only eastern warm water ocean port
bleed Russia of money and blood for a long time
make the Russian people weary of conflict and willing to “submit” to the West in exchange for “peace” and Big Macs.
I’d say that the US strategy toward Russia is meant to achieve the goal note above, and elements of the strategy are
Develop a First Strike capability and prepare the West to accept it’s use. (Then either blackmail, or use it and then capture the natural resources)
Reduce Russia’s ability to wage war by weakening Russia commercially to deprive it of income, resources, capability and population.
– Compel Russia to work commercially on an uneven playing field, tilted to the Wet’s advantage.
– Thwart Russia’s industrial and scientific capacity.
– Interfere with Russia’s ability to contract with other idustrial powers for mutual benefit. (enying them the ability to develop competitivenes.)
– Reduce Russia’s access to the Seas and to the air
Reduce Russia’s ability to wage war by making her people sick.
Disgruntle the Russian population, and induce them to deny their own culture. (e.g. exclude them from sports and attack their church)
Steadily encroach territorially (Reducing the size of it’s commercial community, reducing secure transportation corridors, and moving missiles closer to Mother Russia)
Disaffect Russia’s neighbors (impairing trade, mutual defense, transportation, and cooperation)
It’s plain that the West is working this Strategy.
It’s not at all clear the Ukraine tactics are effective to the strategy. For example, The tactic of closing the airspace has hurt, but Russia compensated by pivoting to the global south, and closing Russian airspace to the West may have hurt the West worse.
And the tactic of denying Lloyds of London insurance to Russian oil will not curtail Russian commerce. It would have been a great tactic if the goal or strategy was instead to promote a shipping insurance industry in Indonesia or India – but it’s not.
The western strategy since day one has many aspects, IMO. Two non-kinetic ones are to distract from financial issues and the growing genomic serum death and injury. Bread and circuses on a massive scale, simply. If they get military/economic victory over Russia now, that is a bonus. Martyanov speaks of Russia having escalation dominance, this may be so, but the West has what may be termed de-escalation dominance. At any time the west can propose talks or ceasefire, cool the conflict, and be 99% sure Russia will accommodate them, as Russia is rational.
But as we patiently wait for the talks, everything else falls apart and collapses.
I thought of your summation, “All I see is magical thinking, narcissistic delusions, a mindset shaped by centuries of relative impunity and an over-arching, blind, hatred of Russia and everything Russian.”,
while I reread an article about pertinent US history:
The Secrets and Lies of the Vietnam War, Exposed in One Epic Document
The ruling oligarchs have no economic strategy either…
27:40-34.00 Prof. Wolff ‘..the people who run this country seem to think there are no limits, you just keep pushing…as if the social consequences, the other side of you making more money, isn’t there…when finally you reach the limit it overwhelms you because you too weren’t prepared for it…’
I always enjoy reading your excellent commentary and thoughts Saker. Thank you!
Some points of consideration as far as tactics are concerned from a military perspective. Having served in light infantry, and heavy infantry units I have the following observations which are no means an exhaustive list. If I were to point out all of the tactical failures I would be writing this all day. I find the failures perplexing unless I think about the degradation of quality, knowledge, and professionalism of the NATO personnel and force structure.
Failures of the UKR (NATO) tactics and training.
– Static Defense (trench lines)
– Engineer support for hull/ turret defilades
– No tactical engineer support for use of obstacles, mines, etc. to create kill zones by channeling opposing forces
– No interlocking fields of fire
– little overhead cover for deliberate defenses
– hiding in cities which only delay the inevitable obliteration of the UKR forces and limits the use of medium and heavy anti tank weapons and limited mobility
– Dismal infantry training that omits simple fire team movements and training from the fire team to battalion level
– no standardized small unit structure that prohibits combat leaders to understand what forces they actually have
– no coordinated AAA or SAM support
– too many different types of weapons which makes resupply difficult
– little to no combat medic support
– no to little artillery support utilizing target reference points. ( the UKR prefer killing civilians instead of supporting the front lines
This was all during the start of the SMO. This is not to take away from the success of the RF forces but it only shows how the SMO was successful. The RF forces understood this I think. That is why they started with such a small force.
This is damning for NATO/OTAN given the fact that all of these tactics were known during the cold war. This just shows how far the US and NATO have degraded since 1991. (not to say it was great but there was some logic back then) It kind of reminds me of the fact that NASA cannot build a D-5 rocket from the 1960s.
Now the genius’s are sending in MBTs and IFVs with no training on coordination, teams, tactics, let alone becoming proficient in the operations, tactics, weaponry and lets not forget supply. The 25mm Bushmaster has a 900 rounds per minute on high rate in the M2. Trigger control will not be taught to them. The whole turret has to operate in unison and be a fire team for the dismounts. I could go on and on. The whole endeavor is doomed from the start. I feel for the poor saps who are going to use this equipment and be sent to the slaughter. It is nothing short of demonic.
I think that the US and NATO’s militaries and societies are similar the the final days of the western Roman empire and many other empires. I fear that a new dark age will come to the hegemony because the mid-witted nut jobs live in a virtual world believe their own BS. I say fear because there are still decent people who live in zone A.
“…US commanders will soon have to face an even worse choice: defeat or nuclear war.”
We are long ways from getting there.
The path (which cannot be called a strategy) US/NATO/Collective West will be treading for the time being, is the avoidance of defeat while preparing for a nuclear war.
NATO keeps making assurances they don’t want a war with Russia. Full time idiot Scholz, mouthpiece to the US/NATO warmongers, just declared to the Bundestag that,
“The introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukrainian territory and sending NATO troops there are excluded, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in the Bundestag.
The North Atlantic Alliance immediately said that it would not advocate the introduction of a no-fly zone, nothing has changed in this position and will not change, Scholz said, reports TASS.
Also, ground troops will not be sent there, and there will be “no direct participation in the conflict,” the Chancellor promised. He stressed that this does not exist now “and will not happen in the future, everyone can rely on it.”
Does that include Russia?
First of all, setting up a no-fly zone over Ukraine is not NATO’s prerogative, however, it doesn’t hurt they keep on “reassuring” Russia escalation of the conflict is limited to the continuation of war by proxy fighting to the last Ukrainian. To that Scholz added that “ground troops will not be sent there and there will be no direct participation in the conflict,” stressing that “this does not exist now ‘and will not happen in the future, everyone can rely on it.'”
It is not coincidence Scholz statement followed on “Admiral Gorshkov’s” exercises on the Western Atlantic launching a hypersonic Zircon missile.
Russia has sent a powerful Zircon signal to NATO
“…worked out a strike with a Zircon missile on a sea target simulating a simulated enemy ship and located at a distance of more than 900 kilometers. During the exercise, the ship’s crew demonstrated high coordination of actions, the defense Ministry stressed.”
At the same time, Germany just announced the delivery of “Leopard” tanks to Ukraine “no earlier than in three to four months.”
Furthermore, the US just announced a 90,000/month increase of 155mm. shells for Ukrainian artillery.
Feeding Ukraine with weapons, while “reassuring” Russia they will not enter the conflict, will be the US/NATO’s “military assistance” pattern we will see for as long as they can keep the Ukrainians bleeding on a simulacrum of “resistance” to the Russian onslaught.
The intention is to keep Ukraine going for as long as it takes, emptying US/NATO warehouses, while activating the MIC across the Collective West.
War is business, business is war.
They will not miss the opportunity to make billions of dollars by ruining it all in a short-lived nuclear war.
Propping up Ukraine’s bleeding fields will be US/NATO’s goal during the current year, while they work in other options.
In the meantime, they are already making preparations for a nuclear conflagration. Eurostan is already instructing their populations on nuclear war survival. In reality, they don’t give a damn about their people, the ruling elites will start a nuclear war once they are done with their bunkers.
On another note, Ukraine’s defeat is not around the corner.
The battle for meat-grinder Bakmuth, started in mid-summer 2022, is still going, and once the “Afrika Korps” (Africans’ name for Wagner PMC) finish there (coming soon), Seversk is next, then Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, which like Bakmuth were rebuilt and reinforced for combat, and have now benefited from the Bakmuth experience, as many of the elite troops were “evacuated” north from Soledar and surroundings.
Ukrainians know very well these are their last lines of defense before Russia breaks west to open fields. We can expect they will fight fiercely, even if hopelessly, before their demise. We know, and the west knows, no matter how many tanks, art, armored vehicles, etc., Ukraine gets delivered, they have already been defeated, and are not capable of creating a serious resistance with a patched-up army.
Regardless, their defeat is not happening anytime soon, and the prospect of a nuclear war is far on the horizon.
Not before the gluttonous western ruling elites run laughing with their billions all the way to their banks…and to their bunkers.
Unless…your guess is as good as mine.
This article about Scholz’s two days delay agreeing to deliver Leopard tanks to Russia, illustrates my point.
US/NATO see the defeat of Russia as an “investment,” and Scholz hesitancy endangered the preparation of the looming counter offensive Ukraine is preparing before the spring thaw.
Tanks are needed to spearhead the drive to Crimea, otherwise the business deal perils.
The portrayal as a poker game of the negotiations between the US and Germany re: tank deliveries to Kiev, also shows the war-for-profit calculations of those feeding the war. Ramstein is the casino where they come to play bets on the defeat of Russia
Sending tanks to Ukraine will be Scholz’s biggest failure
“…But the two-day delay turned him into an “enfant terible” and a snivel for the NATO “hawks”, with whom he almost ruined multibillion-dollar investments in six months (that is, investments in the defeat of Russia in Ukraine, the reliability of which should be confirmed by the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine).
Am surprised that no has posted about this yet.
German foreign minister declares war on Russia
Thanks for an excellent reading treat, Andrei. I can only hope that it will be spread. Gloomy is the word, but also Larry Johnson recently wrote ‘find a good cave’.
For many years people have wondered how it was possible that a cultivated nation like Germany embraced national-socialism. And look around you now, even with a tsunami on technical communication, we seem to be more clueless and stupid then ever. Here in Germany we already widely crossed the line in supporting openly neo-nazi’s. Even without the slightest trace of shame. And even that was not enough:
Today our foreign minister Annalena Baerbock (green party, really) openly declared war on Russia. In a sarcastic mood I reacted to friends with ‘wir müssen feine Traditionen kuscheln’ (that means something like ‘we have to cherish fine traditions’), but really… what are the options:
-she is an ignorant and stupid
-she is a bankers bitch and will do just anything told by her lords and masters (who are definitely not the German nation)
-she uses just cynical ice cold calculation
-all of the above
Where will this lead to?
Considering the last red-marked remark in the article, that people do fear to ask but is more true than ever (“US commanders will soon have to face an even worse choice: defeat or nuclear war.”), I’m wondering who has the reason here. There used to be world leaders that stopped generals from stupid ideas, and were aware that nuclear armed nations would never allow NATO at their border. Today it seems to be the other way around, a few generals have to stop their leaders, and then the powers are not in the right place.
We may have had Vasili Arkhipov around, but he is not on duty anymore. May God have mercy on his soul, and send other human beings to watch our backs when we have a pandemic of ‘entitlement’ (what an excellent characteristic, Stephen Galvin).
People who are not deeply worried now, have definitely not understood the situation.
Cheers and stay safe, Rob
There is only one country psychopath enough to have used nuke………………TWICE!
World is not facing a sane power, it’s staring at a raving lunatic gang.
I always thought the book 1984 was prescient… Now I just hope that Dr. Strangelove was just a movie.
I don”t know who the original author is but I translated this from Bulgarian into English.
Letter from grandfather “Tiger” to his grandson “Leopard “in Ukraine
Guten morgen, mein lieben grandson! I’m so glad you decided to Drang nah Osten (go east).
First of all, take care of your health. Especially the transmission. It is the first thing to break down. It’s hard in the winter there. The transmission gets cold immediately, the oil freezes there.
You, Mein Lieben grandchild, have a good appetite – 720 liters per 100 kilometers (0.33 MPG). And anyway, who knows exactly how much you’ll need in the Russian mud? Keep in mind that Russian diesel, as well as gasoline, are not at all suitable for us.
Third, prepare for the fact that you will have to travel a lot on road hauliers. Be careful when entering or leaving.
You, grandchild of Mein Lieber, have a great width of 3.75 meters (12.4ft). And more weight too. And many bridges in this land of Barbarians will not hold you at all.
Fourth. Get ready to sit in the mud for a long time and wait to be pulled out. At this time, you will be a good target for Russian assault planes, helicopters and artillery.
And now the Russian tanks are lighter and faster. So, my grandson, watch your ass.
Now the Russians have guided missiles that can kill you from five kilometers away, and you can hit them from only three and a half kilometers away. And the armor, obviously, is better with the Russians. So take care of yourself.
Yeah, before I forget, my dementia is about to wake up. The firing speed of Russian tanks is three times higher. They have an automatic loader. And you don’t…
And the last one.
If the Russians are cornering Abramses or Challengers, don’t engage. Try to hide. They are heavier and more visible on the battlefield than you. You have the chance to die last.
You’d better not go there at all. They’ll melt you into Russian nuclear icebreakers and send them to the Arctic.
In short, my grandson, your grandmother “Panther” and I kiss you and wish you all the best. But we expect the worst. If you die, we will surely erect a monument for you on our family plot.
Germany announced that it would send 14 tanks Leopard 2 to Ukraine and allow others to do the same. Well, good.
Apti Alaudinov – commander of the Special Forces “Akhmat”:
“I don’t see any difference in what equipment Ukraine’s armed forces will have – Western or ex-Soviet: in principle, it burns the same way.”
@ Veleslav Grivov on January 26, 2023 · at 1:30 am EST/EDT
“…You’d better not go there at all. They’ll melt you into Russian nuclear icebreakers and send them to the Arctic…”
…Where the wind turns around…
Thank you, Veleslav, for the translation. Congrats are due to whoever wrote it. A great piece of war humor, really needed in the bleak times we are facing.
The more this charade plays out the more obvious it becomes that the US’s real target is Germany (and by extension Germany’s Euro-lemming neighbours) who are being stood-over and intimidated protection racket style into surrendering not only their wealth and social cohesion but their dignity to boot.
It’s not Russia’s prospects that were hit by US sanctions but rather Germany’s, with their once rich trade surplses and industrial advantage wiped out.
Any doubts about the real target were vapourised with the attack on the Nordstream hydrocarbon super highway, which would otherwise have cemented Germany’s place in the belt and road-linked, Sino-led, Russian fueled Eurasian free-trade utopia that was tantalisingly close to being signed, sealed and delivered.
But that could never be permitted.
The US knows it can’t compete with China, but in true gangster style, it’s going to vandalise the neighbourhood and take whatever hostages it can.
Germany’s America’s screaming bitch now and forever, ready to get down on their knees and suck up whatever fracted fumes and extortionate fees demanded.
And now we’re going to the next level with latest sucker punch as Germany is forced to pay for and tend to its own subjugation with a grandeous rearmament program where Deutchland uber alles of the US’s occupation expenses.
It’s almost too cruel to be funny.
Still it could be worse… Germany could have been in Ukraine’s boat. But there’s time for that.
Everyone keeps predicting America’s imminent demise, but the US keeps making the plays.
For a nation supposedly led by morons, they sure play a pretty smart game. Utterly maniacal, but smart. Like Al Capone.
I think there actually is an overall strategy employed by the Empire. It is to wage war(s) against Russia by proxy to weaken and isolate Russia.
To this end the Empire has continuously
– tried to create coups and color-revolutions in countries friendly to Russia and neutral countries important to Russia,
– tried to create “events” (“Skripal”, MH17 etc.) to blame Russia and make it a pariah,
– tried to create military conflicts in zones important to Russia, in order to force Russia to either lose important interests or employ its own forces, the latter to the cost of Russia and to be used in propaganda against Russia.
The war in the Ukraine IMHO is the result of what I would call the “strategy of maximum provocation”.
Coup, terror against Russian-speakers, promoting Nazis, racist indoctrination of the youth, besmirching the historic legacy, rewriting history, toppling of memorials, terror against all opposition, american military biolabs, military threats against Russia, arming to wage war against Crimea, threatening to join NATO and install nuclear weapons, threatening to aqcuire nuclear weapons.
This has *forced* Russis to intervene in Ukraine one way of the other.
Now after the official involvement of Russia in the war, the same strategy is continued IMHO.
Threats against Russian territory, no negotiations whatsoever, no relenting on the terror against Russian-speakers whatsover, murders inside Russia, terrorist attacks against Russian infrastructure, military attacks on Russia proper, i.e. territory of Russia prior to 2022 (Crimea) or even prior to 2014.
I think what the planners at RAND and neocon and oligarch “think” tanks hope is that Russia will occupy the whole of Ukraine in order to end the constant crazy attacks, and that Russia then will have to employ an occupation force that will be attacked by partisan groups. They hope to create a long lasting problem for Russia, so that it will never be in peace and will always have to fight and always have negative “press”, i.e. the problem the “West” has created for Russia will be used in imperial propaganda against Russia.
I do not know if the total occupation of Ukraine will be necessary. I do not know how the political situation in Ukraine is. This is all pretty much speculation and inference from public information and news.
But I think the main strategic goals of Russia should be:
– economic development of Russia,
– particularly of Novorossia,
so that all Ukrainians can see what they have missed out on in all those years under oligarch rule and now Nazi-/Western secret service rule.
Further isolation of the “West” by promoting and creating new international trade mechanisms, financial mechanisms and international cooperation protected from the “Western” scheming, bribing and threats.
Being a sane country with freedom, rule of law, and traditional values will help to ensure the good standing of Russia in the world and position Russia as a counter-pole to the crazyness in the “West”.
Militarily I assume the current strategy of very careful, slow, methodical and reluctant forward motion is the correct strategy. Any escalation of the “West” should be carefully analyzed and then answered in the way that mitigates the newly created risks in the least costly way.
And there should always be very solid military threat potential against the US and its oligarch rulers, because the decision making center of the “West” is in the US, and the deciders are the oligarchs (and their secret “service” people).
I have thought that for a very long time now, years ago it was transparent that any real US attack upon China or Russia or even Iran would soon have to escalate to the nuclear buttons as modern missile technology would sink their fleets and precious air craft carriers and expose the Navy based power as a paper Tiger. I remember reading somewhere around 10 years ago that Chinese Shore to Ship missiles, one I remember described as the Sunburst that would evade radars flying close to the surface, then rise straight up above the target and straight down punching a hole through the ship, were effective to sink any US ship with 1,400 kilometers. It is not hard to do the math from there. I quibble further with the often repeated assertion that the powers in the West have an “over-arching” hatred of the Russians as it is not about ‘hate,’ rather it is just ” Bidness” as G.W. would pronounce it, the business of Empire and those it must defeat and rob in order to remain Top Dog. Russia has the ‘stuff ‘ that the Neo European Empire of AmeriKKKa needs and wants, just as the British Empire went after the oil in the Middle East as they modernized their naval fleets.
Exactly. It’s just business.
We’re too quick to assign human emotions to these Leo-con automaton types. They’re devoid of such human frailties and incapable of any insight that can’t be graphed or analised in a spreadsheet. Their goal is total domination of everything; their means is monopoly control over the information realm and the fabrication of fairytale narratives for the masses. Meanwhile, they seize real history by the balls and squeeze it for every shekel, while telling us it has to be this way because (insert your prejudice here *they hate because we’re Russian; they hate our freedom, they’re communists, they’re Nazis, they’re woke wonks and want to turn us gay, they’re Jews, they’re Arabs… Blah, blah. Such is the fodder of the easily manipulated. Stupid goyim.
What you Saker and few of your readers been knowing for years, is now common knowledge. Time is up for Western Hegemony. It is falling under its own weight and Russia stumping on top of this fallen cadaver!!
This US/NATO incited and orchestrated war is existential
for the US (and its vassals) and an implicit battle to save capitalism. Hardly anything at stake !
Let me explain: Capitalism and Democracy are at odds with one another. A healthy balance can lead to reasonable outcomes. An unhealthy or lopsided balance leads to disaster. Too much democracy and not enough capitalism, and the result is a great deal of marvelous laws and policies with nothing to support them financially.
On the other hand, unfettered capitalism leads to the collapse of democracy, when men (and women) are captured by monied interests.
That the dominant hegemonic State is captured is clear. And in this context of overwhelming special interests driving short-term private gain at the expense of the Republic, greed is the only tactic. There is no strategy. Whatever imagined remnants of a shining beacon on a hill that was once sold by Hollywood, has been swallowed wirh mustard by the gourmand pigs feeding at the public trough.
And to mix metaphors, its all a house of cards that is about to crumble because capitalism ate democracy, as evidenced by …uhhhmmm, for one, the MIC or MICCIMATT (courtesy CIA Ray McG).
The people of the developing world and some in the west are looking at the 800 million people lifted from abject poverty by the Chinese Socialist system and comparing it to to the outcomes of western socio-economic engineering imposed on them by the colonialiasts and imperialists – there is a large body of work to hold up to the light.- And after sufficient review and a desire to remove the imperial boot from their necks, they are running toward the successful alternatives to western democratic-capitalism. Here in lies the western challenge. Its existential beyond war.
The US strategy has been to perpetuate the British Empire as the American Empire.
The tactic was by any means necessary, including sanctions, economic hitmen, more sanctions, coups and assassinations.
But rhe world is now a far different place than it was at the moment of the Brezinski-orchestrated collapse of the USSR- when this tactic began to reap its rewards- until its zenith in Iraq. Its been all downhill since then.
The BRICS, SCO, EAEU, and global South saw the writing on the Wall with the Iraq war, Libya destruction and the Syrian escapade- and are stronger collectively now thanks to Russia and clandestine China support- and finally have an alternative to western domination, which the west refuses to accept and is actively trying to suppress and destroy.
The US-led West is in terminal decline and is nearing its nadir, and with it, the failed democratic-capital model.
So this is an existential threat not just for the west, but for the dominant ideology and political system of the last 250 years. The end began with the Russian intervention in Syria. It accelerated with the defeat of NATO in Soledar and soon Bakhmut.
Its almost over, bar the collapse of the US Dollar, or a nuclear war under a false flag- which one comes first is anyone’s guess, but its just a matter of time.
I welcome you to a multipolar world or none at all.
Although I’m a regular reader, this is my first post. The term “NATO panic” seems to be increasingly bandied about the net, but with fuzzy definition, so as an older finance professional with specific insight, I thought I’d chime in.
US/NATO Panic: I believe the Washington Mandarins realize their idiotic Russia/China strategy led them into a “Hotel California” catastrophic, inescapable trap of imminent destruction…perhaps worse than any series of nukes could inflict? The Petrodollar is done…which means Weimar Republic in the reasonably near term as unneeded Eurodollars flood back into the US economy…which also directly and profoundly effects NATO partners…and most everyone else really. Nobody really wins in this scenario…not China…not Russia. This is The Threat that sends a white line up the back of any reasonably intelligent Mandarin in The West. Russian nukes clearly aren’t their fear…and they are correct in their focus.
To combat this, the US/NATO must replace oil with other large volume international transactions to soak up the Eurodollars…preventing them from coming home to roost…as “paper nukes”. Hence, the outrageous and irrational weapon transfers to Ukraine…the NEED to QUICKLY deplete NATO weapon stocks so large volume US$ replenishment transactions from NATO countries (abt 2% GDP/yr??) can somewhat buffer the Petrodollar collapse…which seems to be gaining speed every week. I haven’t run the numbers to know how effective a strategy it might be, but this would be a very rational and logical US/NATO move to avoid “paper nukes” coming right down the pipeline in the near future.
i.e. expect high US$ rates that can’t be lowered regardless of the social chaos that will inevitably explode in global developing markets…in the near term…which will inevitably be blamed on the US again…driving even more economic partners into a Chinese/Russian strategic embrace…a vicious circle for US$ collapse. This isn’t a long, or even medium term forecast. This is The Threat. This is The Lens for understanding “US idiocy” IMO.
If you want to stop the unending global hostilities / wars, you need to soak up Eurodollars somehow, some other way than arms sales. The person who figures that out will deserve a Nobel.