By Rostislav Ishchenko
Translated by Ollie Richardson and Angelina Siard
The Rada agreed to opt for an election, some deputies are going to challenge the constitutionality of the decree of the president, and the parliament refused to change electoral laws.
It’s funny. Deputies did not show even conditional resistance in relation to the most basic point – the question of dissolution. But they rigidly opposed the electoral laws that are of secondary importance. It is possible to argue as much as possible about the fundamental differences between the majority, proportional, and mixed systems, and opened and the closed lists, but the Ukrainian reality is such that large oligarchical groups anyway control both the electoral process and the Rada. The most part of majoritarians are all the same elected under a party brand and enter the corresponding faction, and periodically arising groups of “non-factional” deputies de facto serve the power as a reserve of votes for the “slippery” but necessary laws that it are not comme il faut for deputies from the coalition to vote for. Besides this, “non-factional” groups give to the president extra room for manoeuvre in relations with the parliament.
It should be noted that it’s not a coincidence that Zelensky decided to dissolve the Rada. He repeats a similar step taken in the past by Poroshenko. The only difference is that the parliament dissolved by Poroshenko was supposed to work for two more years, while Zelensky wins only four additional months by dissolving the Rada. I will remind that after the coup of 2014 the parliament brought back the Constitution of 2004, which seriously limited the possibilities of the president. In fact, the head of state can really carry out his powers only in case of control over parliament.
It is precisely for this reason that the two presidents elected after the coup (Poroshenko and Zelensky) immediately sought to change the Rada’s structure, having entered their own people into it. Poroshenko’s experience – whose “Bloc of Petro Poroshenko” lost to “People’s Front” a proportional part of the 2014 election (having received one place less), but completely outplayed all parties in majority districts (69 places, besides the fact that “People’s Front”, which took 2nd place in the majority, received only 18 mandates) – shows that the newly elected president rather easily forms a large faction in parliament. If Poroshenko succeeded to receive a faction of 132 deputies, then Zelensky has every chance to enter in parliament no less than 200 (and perhaps, for the first time in the history of Ukraine, receive a one-party majority, without needing to create a coalition). It must be kept in mind that today’s brand “Servants of the People” will be used willingly by the majority in most regions of Ukraine, because it gives excellent chances of a victory in a standoff with any opponent. So for Zelensky it is by and large all the same if the election will take place using the purely proportional system or the mixed one.
Apparently, the introduction of a purely proportional system and decreasing the electoral threshold was one of the conditions of the oligarchical consensus that allowed Zelensky to hold an inauguration on May 20th and to dissolve the Rada. In this case, up to 8 parties should enter the parliament, instead of 4-5 (in the existing system). I.e., practically every oligarch received its representation in the Rada. If the issue of reform was principal for Zelensky (Kolomoisky), then the necessary work would’ve been carried out in the Rada by deputies who, like little rabbits, agreed on dissolution, and who in the same way would also vigorously and cheerfully adopt the new electoral law. Eventually, it was possible to hold back the publication of the decree of Zelensky on the dissolution of the Rada and to curb the resistance deputies. But Zelensky said that he would win the parliamentary election even under the old law. He is absolutely right, for reasons I explained above.
It seems that Kolomoisky, via the Rada’s hands, simply dumped his partners in the oligarchical consensus. At the same time, formally he is not guilty. After all, it is the parliament that did not vote for changes. After all, Zelensky introduced the promised law. Now 3-4 parties (from those who could break the threshold) stay on the sidelines of the Rada, and, most importantly, their owners/oligarchs don’t receive their representation in legislature. As the practice of all the previous elections that took place in accordance with the mixed system shows, the pro-presidential force enters into parliament the absolute (in comparison with other parties) majority of majoritarians. Also, many independent candidates (in 2014 there were 90) – at least a half of who either join the pro-presidential political force or actively cooperate with it – also break the threshold.
In this situation, Zelensky (Kolomoisky) can expect even to be able to create a one-party majority. As a last resort, the strong and most numerous faction “Servants of the People” can choose any of a potential three partners in the coalition (from Tymoshenko to Boyko, including Poroshenko). At the same time, an association of these three factions against Zelensky is almost unfeasible. And once again I will emphasise that the refusal of the parliament to vote for a purely proportional system, with the threshold being reduced to 3%, creates magnificent conditions for the formation of the one-party majority “Servants of the People”. Kolomoisky, with his inherent grace, used his enemies for his purposes, and moreover – in such a way that they did not even understand what is happening.
I think that if “People’s Front” and Parubiy will carry out their threat and will challenge the constitutionality of the presidential decree on the dissolution of parliament, they also will not be stopped by anyone. It’s just that the Constitutional Court will not force the decision-making process, having dragged it out for years. It is possible to laugh as much as necessary at the legal illiteracy of Parubiy, who “doesn’t know” that the legality of the decree is challenged in the Supreme Court, but I think that the Constitutional Court didn’t arise here by coincidence. And again, Kolomoisky’s enemies defend his interests, even without guessing it.
The matter is that influence on Zelensky can also be lost. Now the “young team” [of Zelensky – ed], the US State Department, and rival oligarchs try to push Kolomoisky away. Zelensky is an ambitious guy and he can try to play his own game. The case of the illegality of the decree lying in the Constitutional Court is beautiful insurance. After all, if the Supreme Court recognizes the illegality of the decree of the president, then what can be done, at most, is to stop an early election. At the same time, Zelensky will perfectly promote himself via the “counteraction of the anti-people parliament against the people’s president” and will receive a pocket parliament a few months later (this isn’t essential). If the decree is recognised as unconstitutional, then this will be a reason for impeachment (since the president will have violated the Constitution). The Constitutional Court can put an inquiry about the constitutionality of the decree into the queue and not consider it for years. But if it is required, then it will be possible to activate the process and receive the necessary decision.
Thus, the last decisions made by the dissolved Rada stipulate the establishment of Kolomoisky’s control over all the branches of power by the end of the current year. Having received control over the Rada, he will receive control also over the government, and should his pocket president escape from his control, he will have an opportunity at any time to receive a decision about the illegality of Zelensky’s actions and to start the procedure of his renunciation of power. Well, and the main guarantor of all this grandeur is Arsen Avakov, with his Ministry of Internal Affairs, National Guard, and militants. He faded into the background recently, but he controls the situation. Today, Avakov and Kolomoisky are equally interested in a union. In the long term Kolomoisky, of course, can try to also abandon Avakov, but today they need each other, and their tandem is strong.
Kolomoisky and Avakov–a marriage made in Satan’s den. But a deserving couple for Kiev. With a comedian (Zelensky) as the best man.
There are still Billions to steal. And by God, Kolomoisky will take all of it if he can.
And what of Donbass, the “Russian invasion”, the “terrorist farmers and miners” who insist on living where Ukie tanks shells and sniper rounds need to land?
And what of Kerch Straits and freedom of navigation?
And what of Crimea, “stolen” in the dead of night by storm troopers disguised as Polite Green Men?
And now, passports for any Ukrainians who want Russian credentials?
Seems as though those are on the back burner. First, the new power vertical must locate where the money is and where the other oligarchs are now weakened, so Kolomoisky can fleece them of their holdings.
The pigs are at the trough. Carry on.
But don’t forget to fire those tank shells and sniper rounds. There are plenty of women and children still speaking Russian in the Donbass. That is important to stop, too. The UNSC doesn’t care about this language thing. Nor does it care about the contact zone being a free-fire zone. It’s primarily Russian ethnics killed and maimed.
What matters is the great democratic election Kiev just had. It should solve all Ukraine’s problems. No?
Thanks to Ollie and Angelina for the translation.
That would be that Kolomoisky concerning whom Haaretz asked-‘Is this the most powerful Jew in the world?”To my jaundiced eyes that looks awfully ‘antisemitic’.
He still doesn’t say how the meddling yanks fit in, although I’d say the USG (under Trump) isn’t as interested as when biden was in power.
2 good things are that madmayhem is on the way out, and that stupid idiot williamson is also out of it, so hopefully also less brit interference, but then there may be – not a comedian – but a clown called bojo in power soon in britain.
They aughts to just keep on having elections until the politicians get the results they want, then its all good
I see that Trump has cast his beady eyes over the involvement of Austfailia and Ukronazistan in the conspiracy to derail his Presidential bid, then Presidency. The Guardian’s premier Zionazi hysteric (such competition) Wolffe has a piece of truly exquisite hypocrisy, and, in my opinion, barely disguised fear that the truth will, after all, out, today. Once again the standard instant Zionazi/ Guardian resort to hysterical denunciation is on full view. AND there is a viciously lying ‘editorial’ concerning Assange, in the Guardian feminazi sewer tradition. Assange has to face the ‘rape charges’ in Sweden when there are NO ‘charges’ and there plainly was NO ‘rape’.
And the mad monks forknowledge of the Malaysian downings follows close behind…
There are only two people fit to rule Ukraine: Vladimir Putin (for the people) and George Soros (for the oligarchs). From a geopolitical perspective, Ukraine — not viable as a state — will accordingly join Russia or Poland with some ’quite funny consequences’ for Poland (and the EU) in the latter case.
Various civil groups warning what Z should not do or be doing…..
Ukraine was their last sucessful coup . But they failed with all these coups in Venezuela and Turkey and now EU will enter a new Anti Anglo-Saxon/Israel era, it is going to be a enemy for them now. EU movements like Italy Lega, German Social Democrats, Spanish Workers Party, Hunagrian Fidesz and many others dont want to spend trillion of Euro on developing Ukraine and allowing it to enter EU, instead they want to trade more freely with Russia and get its reliable fuel and customers. Ukraine offers nothing, only a geopolitcal tool of usa and england and tel aviv. Europeans and Asians see this clearly.
Ukriane is a Colony now entirely. We can empathise- in India there were Princely States, ruled by a puppet local elite on behalf of the so called English Chosen Race. In Ukraine they gave Kolomoiskiy and Zelenskiy as Princes. Ukriane will not last long in this state, because already too many Ukraine people see thier miserable situations and feel angry. History repeats itself always. When the English and Americans withdraw, they make sure they cause as much devastation as possible. Still kids today are killed by mines in Vietnam. Ukraine will earn its freedom eventually. and have the support of all the free nations including Russia. However like the disgusting Partition of Pakistan and India by the Chosen Race, Donbass and Ukraine will be manipulated into Mutual Genocide. These Chosen People are masters of such things.
Strictly speaking, the Maidan Nazi Putsch was an epic failure too. Ukraine in 2014 was a decaying corpse as of 20+ years already — the point of staging the Euromaidan was to resuscitate the cadaver by installing NATO in Crimea. The Ukronazis, while ardent Russophobes, proved unequal to the task and are now just a bunch of useless liabilities.
Nothing will change after this election. Zelensky can say whatever he wants but he is just another puppet . Ukraine is entirely under USA colonial rule. And it will stay in that position for long time.
Russia should completely ignore Ukraine.
I disagree with you last point that the Ukraine will remain under western control for a long time. The USA (pindostan) is a weakening empire. It’s problem internally are huge, A crumbling infrastructure, deeply divided and dumbed down populace , crippled manufacturing base, coupled with resistance from countries around the world including many of it’s former allies. It has no diplomacy, and it’s formally successful tactics are just pathetic and laughably palely reflected shadows of what they once were.There will be a point in the not too distant future when this control will be deluded memory.