All the glorious wannabe defenders of the Independent Ukraine are all on the run.  Literally.  Rumors include that airlines are not insured to fly in Ukie airspace, over 30 oligarchs have already evacuated in their private jets, western embassies are running from Kiev to Lvov, the media publishes invasion maps almost every day, western officials seems to think that the invasion is for tomorrow or Wednesday, folks from the OSCE and World Bank are evacuating too, the Ukies are training their civilians on how to pack for a shelter and how to shoot a wooden Kalashnikov, etc. etc. etc.  I won’t list all the grotesque nonsense the Zone A media is full of – you can look it up yourself.

I also have A LOT of catching up to do, which is not made easier by one of my kids testing positive for COVID, (but in mild presentation, thank God).  So just a few bullet points from me right now:

  • Considering all the hype, and considering that there are still exactly zero signs of any special Russian military activity (except in the Far East where the Russian Navy had to kick out a Virginia class SSN out of Russian waters, the Yanks left at flank speed) there is a lot of people which will look very very stupid by Thursday morning we all wake up to humongous… …nothing.  Which in plain English means that the Anglos are now truly desperate for a provocation at/near the LDNR (or even Russia proper).  I think that it is prudent and logical to assume that the Anglos will come up with something in the next 48 hours.
  • As predicted, nobody in the West wants to die for Banderastan.  So we can assume that Lvov will become the temporary imperial command post for the Ukraine for at least the foreseeable future.
  • Since western IT giants work hand in hand with Uncle Shmuel, we also should assume that once the provocation is executed, wild and totally contradictory rumors will immediately be spread, deliberately or by the many legions of armchair generals who think they understand modern warfare.
  • In very sharp contrast to the US/NATO/EU and their hysterics and generalized infighting, the Russians seems to be very calm and determined.  There are signs that the Russian Duma will ask the Kremlin to recognize and/or seriously arm the LDNR in the near future.
  • Lavorv has officially categorically rejected the US reply and sent one last clarification to all the western governments/  Lavrov and Putin agreed that that there is “still is a last chance left for a negotiated solution” and they have sent an important written text, 10 pages, to their western counterparts.  But they also made it clear that if “Biden” is just running down the clock then Russia will take action.  By the tone of the announcement, this is probably the very last effort the Kremlin will make to try to avoid a catastrophe in the Ukraine unless, of course, folks in the West get serious and quickly engage in meaningful discussions about Russia’s “red lines”.
  • Defense Minister Shoigu has announced that the Russian military exercises were partially completed and will continue to wind down over the coming days.
  • The German Chancellor is coming to Moscow tomorrow.

That’s it for me for right now.

Check out the latest commentary by Andrei Martyanov:

Let’s see what happens next.


PS: just to refresh your memory, here are a few good ones:

The Essential Saker IV: Messianic Narcissism's Agony by a Thousand Cuts
The Essential Saker III: Chronicling The Tragedy, Farce And Collapse of the Empire in the Era of Mr MAGA