First, I want to begin this analysis by posting the full translation of an article posted yesterday by the Russian webzine Vzgliad. I materially don’t have the time to make my own translation, so what I will post is just a minimally retouched machine translation, I apologize for this.
original Russian text: https://vz.ru/world/2020/11/12/1070326.html
Five main mysteries of the second Karabakh war
by Evgenii Krutikov
The end of the second Karabakh war gave rise to many riddles and conspiracy theories. Indeed, some of the circumstances of this conflict are extremely mysterious, or at least paradoxical from the point of view of conventional military logic. Apparently, the Armenian leadership itself provoked a political catastrophe.
Let’s list which riddles raise the biggest questions and provoke the appearance of “conspiracy theories” in Armenia (and not only).
1. Why was not a full-fledged mobilization carried out in Armenia, and full-fledged military units were not deployed to the conflict area?
Despite loud Patriotic statements, there was no real mobilization in Armenia. The permanent number of the Armenian army – about 50 thousand people-was increased only by volunteers. While the conditions of the fighting required to increase the number of defenders of Karabakh to 80-100 thousand people at least. At the same time, very soon the lack of specialists (for example, artillery calculations and MLRS) began to affect the front in the Armenian army. There was no one to fill in the losses.
It is inexplicable why Yerevan did not conduct a real mobilization. The Armenian leadership simply avoids talking about this topic. If there was a mobilization plan, no one tried to implement it. As a result, there was no rotation of military personnel on the first line, in some areas people were sitting in the trenches for a month without a shift. 18-20-year-olds were on the front line, and at some point the untrained youth made up up to 80% of the personnel. The Karabakh detachments, made up of professionals and veterans, suffered heavy losses in the first week, which there was no one and nothing to make up for, since there were simply no reinforcements.
Groups of volunteers in Armenia were formed along party lines. The scandal was caused by an attempt to form a separate detachment of the prosperous Armenia party named after the oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan, who is now Pashinyan’s main opponent. The two have been in conflict for more than a decade. Now the Prime Minister openly calls Tsarukyan “the culprit of the fall of Shusha”, since his phantom squad allegedly did not have enough at the front to win. These conflicts could have been avoided simply by having a mobilization plan and a desire to implement it.
The main military forces of Armenia did not move to Karabakh. But in order to relieve the tension created by Azerbaijani UAVs, it was enough to simply relocate early detection locators to Goris. And one army corps would have been enough to cover the southern direction even at the stage when the Azerbaijanis were languidly marking time in front of the first line of defense. Proper supplies were not organized, and after a month of fighting, this led to a shortage of missiles for the MLRS and shells for the barrel artillery. And without artillery support, the infantry can only die heroically.
All this borders on sabotage, although it may be partly explained by local sloppiness and unwillingness to weaken the defense of Armenia proper. The latter is a very controversial position and it looks like the Armenian leadership has simply abandoned Karabakh to its fate.
2. Why did the Northern front behave so strangely?
In the North and North-East of Karabakh, in the area of the Kyrgyz Republic, there was a large fortified area of the Armenian defense, which included very combat-ready units. And they really put up a serious resistance to the advancing Azerbaijani group and in the end actually stopped it (losing, however, several positions and significant villages).
But after that, the elite Yehnikner battalion suddenly retreated, although its commander managed to get the “Hero of Artsakh”. Moreover, since October 3, neither “Ehnikner” nor any military unit at all was removed from the Northern front and was not transferred to help the burning South. At the same time, the Azerbaijanis only once decided to simulate an offensive in the North again, clearly for distracting purposes. There was no need to keep up to 20 thousand people in the North.
The Karabakh Leadership informally explains all this with a lack of resources. But now the” lack of resources ” in Karabakh explains everything.
3. Why did the southern front collapse?
The fact that the main blow is being inflicted by the Azerbaijanis in the South, in the steppe zone, was visible to the naked eye already in the first few days of the war. Nevertheless, resources – human and technical-began to arrive on the southern front when this front was no longer in fact there. The steppe zone was lost, and the front stopped along the edge of the mountains from Krasny Bazar to Martuni. As a result, up to 30 thousand people defending Karabakh have accumulated in this area. They were threatened with complete encirclement and death, which was one of the reasons for signing the ceasefire agreement. At the same time, before the occupation of Jabrayil, the Azerbaijani troops advanced very slowly, disrupting their own pace of attack. This gave the Armenians a small, but still a head start in order to understand the situation and engage in relocation.
After the occupation of Jabrayil, the front began to fall apart, and the advance of the Azerbaijanis sharply accelerated. The moment was lost.
For some reason, the Armenian command has not made a decision about the transfer of additional resources to the southern front? This is another mystery.
4. Why did the Armenian side limit itself to passive defense?
During the entire war, the Armenian side only twice attempted a counterattack against the advanced units of the Azerbaijanis who were running far ahead. Both times this happened opposite Lachin in a narrow gorge, with the extreme vulnerability of the Azerbaijani battalion-tactical group (BTG). Once even successfully. But these operations were simply reduced to a massive attack by the MLRS on enemy clusters. Operations to block the gorge and encircle the enemy in other sections of the southern front were suggested. But not a single Armenian unit moved. An amazing war in which one of the parties did not conduct a single offensive operation on the ground, limited only and exclusively to passive defense.
A successful counteroffensive in the gorge before Lachin would have crushed so many Azerbaijani forces in the cauldron that they would not have thought about attacking Shusha for at least a couple of weeks. And later it was quite possible to destroy the Azerbaijani infantry in the ravine Averatec. But it took a lot of effort.
There is no explanation for why the Armenian side did not even try to counterattack or use other methods to use the operational advantage that it repeatedly had. The lack of resources can only be referred to endlessly in the last stages of warfare, but passive defense has been a constant tactic since the beginning of the war.
5. Why was Shusha handed over?
The most sensitive and incomprehensible question. The first assault on the city by Azerbaijani infantry was extremely unsuccessful. Then the second column of Azerbaijanis was covered by the MLRS strike. With some effort and assistance from Armenia, the Azerbaijani group that broke through to the city could be destroyed. However, suddenly a decision is made to leave the city without a fight and not to attempt to liberate it with the favorable operational and tactical situation remaining for another day.
It is believed that the decision to leave Shusha was made by NKR President Araik Harutyunyan and Secretary of the NKR security Council General Samvel Babayan, a local legend. Now, in protest against the signing of the armistice, he left his post and renounced the title of Hero of Artsakh. The Armenian YouTube channel “Lurer” (“news”) published a recording of Babayan and Harutyunyan’s talks, from which it follows that General Babayan really considered the possibility of recapturing Shusha even after its abandonment,but the further prospect of resistance was very gloomy.
Fragment of a conversation (not translated verbatim): “Let’s calculate the (combat) task. Twenty, thirty volleys of the “Smerch” MLRS blanket Shushi. We kill everyone there. Taking the city back. What’s next? The state of the army and the civilian population does not allow for war. We gave battle, took Shushi, then what? ( … ) we Can’t fight with the NATO army, with mercenaries, fully equipped… I tried to organize an operation with three battalions yesterday. We only have four howitzers. If we are not provided with artillery, how will you ensure the offensive or cut off his (the enemy’s) tails? (…) Today we must finally negotiate with Russia that we are handing over these territories and leaving them. Or they help us. Imagine that we have two Grads for the entire army today, a dozen howitzers, for which we have no shells.”
To sum up, General Babayan believed that resistance was useless at this stage of the fighting. We must refuse to continue the war and either surrender, or ask for ten days for an organized exit of the local population and the 30 thousand soldiers of the southern front who are completely surrounded. As an alternative, it was proposed to urgently ask Russia for direct military assistance in the form of PMCs or volunteers, equipment and ammunition.
But all this does not negate the question of why a small group of Azerbaijani infantrymen without heavy equipment, who broke through to Shusha, was not destroyed before the Armenian army began to panic. The retention of Shusha created a completely different architecture of political agreements for the NKR and Armenia. If this is a political decision, then who actually made it?
* * *
This list of mysteries of the second Karabakh war is far from complete. In addition, the Armenian leadership has accumulated many similar questions about preparing for war. This war was lost before it even started, precisely because of the inaction or strange action of Yerevan.
The proceedings will continue for a long time. The situation in the region has changed so radically in these forty days that all the old approaches to resolving the conflict and its military component have died out of themselves. And the new reality will require new solutions for Armenia. And it is not yet clear who will take these decisions.
Personally, I do not see any dark conspiracy here. What I do see is a truly PHENOMENAL level of incompetence from the Sorosite leadership of Armenia. Simply put, the vast majority of the truly competent Armenian leaders, civilian and military, were either jailed or, at the very least fired en masse. There is a very simple explanation for this too.
From Pashinian’s (and, from now on, when I say “Pashinian” I mean the usual suspects: MI6, CIA, Soros, etc.) point of view, the “old guard” of Soviet trained leaders had to be removed because they could not be trusted. But what this imbecile, and his masters, did not realize is that the “Soviet educated” leadership was far more competent than the “woke and transgender friendly democrats” which took power in 2018.
[Sidebar: Did you notice something quite interesting? The “old” and “Soviet trained” military forces in general, and their commanders especially, are systematically much better trained that those forces trained by NATO or “the most powerful military in the history of the galaxy”. Why is it that the democratic, progressive and advanced forces like, say, the Saudis, the Israelis, the Georgians, the Yemeni or all the other many “good terrorists” always perform miserably in combat? I will let you ponder this question :-)]
By the way, Pashinian, who is hiding in a bunker or inside the US embassy compound in Erevan, is still at it! Yesterday he called Macron, who is under pressure from the huge Armenian immigration in France to do something, to ask for his help and Macron promised to help find a solution acceptable to all sides, implying two things:
- That the “Russian solution” (in reality Armenian the acceptance by Erevan of the Azeri terms) is not acceptable and that
- That France has some kind of magic wand that Macron can wave a few times and forever turn the entire area of operation into a peaceful land of milk and honey were everybody would hold hands, sing Kumbaya, and “feel the love” forever and ever.
As usual, the Brits are much more devious, secretive and smart: the head of MI6 is in Turkey to meet with “senior officials”. Yeah, right! By the way, this guy, Richard Moore, is a former UK Ambassador to Turkey. To get a sense of what this is all about, all you need to do is look into any history book to see that the Brits have always used the Ottomans as cannon-fodder against Russia.
As for the US Americans, they are basically paralyzed by the chaos in their own country. But either one of the dummies running might try something desperate to “show the flag” and prove that he is “tough on Russia”.
So what’s next?
For years now I have been saying the following about the Western political leaders: they are unable to build anything worthwhile, but they are most definitely able to spread chaos, anarchy, violence, insurgencies, etc. So the first thing you can be sure of is that the AngloZionists will do everything in their power to egg on the Armenians, the Azeris and even the Turks to reject an outcome which the West sees as a triumph for Russia (and for Putin personally!).
Then there is Erdogan, who is furious at the Russian categorical rejection of his demands to be part of the peacekeeping force. All the Russians have agreed to is to create a special “monitoring post” staffed by Russians and Turks, far away from the Nagorno-Karabakh region where a joint team of observers would “monitor” the situation by looking at computers. There will be no Turkish soldiers in the peacekeeping area (see Russian military map above).
As a fallback option, the Turks are also demanding they they be allowed to fly their own drones over the area of operations. In response, the Armenian side has declared that Armenia and Russia have jointly declared a no-fly zone over the entire area. As far as I know, the Russians have not confirmed that “yet”, but you can be pretty sure that they will immediately shoot down any unauthorized aircraft approaching their positions.
To get a sense of how the Russians are acting, you need to know two things:
First, the Russian liberal media is already complaining that Russia has included “undeclared” weapons systems in its peacekeeping force (MLRS and APCs). This is hardly surprising considering the very high probability of provocations (by both sides). Besides, the vague language of the agreement allows Russian to bring in “specialized vehicles” which could mean anything and everything.
Furthermore, I am pretty confident that the Russian 102nd Military Base is a Russian military base in Gyumri will receive reinforcements and will serve as the logistical support hub for the Russian peacekeeping force.
Second, it is worth looking at the career of the man who will be commanding the Russian peacekeeping force, Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov. You can check his biography here and here. I will simply summarize this man’s career by saying two words: Donbass, Syria.
He is not some kind of pretend-general whose qualifications are mainly as organizers and politicians. This guy is a real combat general, the kind who personally comes under fire because he makes sure to regularly be with his men on the frontlines and who has experience dealing with the Axis of Kindness and its “good terrorists” (whether local or special ops).
The West perfectly understands this and is absolutely furious about being “cheated” by Russia again!
First, the Russians stopped the bloody war in Syria, now they stopped the war in Azerbaijan. For the Empire, this means the total loss of the axis of instability which they lovingly tried to create in the Caucasus and the Middle-East to eventually hit the Russian underbelly. They failed. They won’t forgive this.
Second, most Armenians worldwide are absolutely horrified at the outcome of this war, and they have my sincere sympathy. The problem here is that many of them blame Russia, rather than their own leaders. Furthermore, there are many truly rabid nationalists amongst the anti-Pashinian forces in Armenia. Right now, Pashinian is hiding somewhere and he still refuses to resign (backed to the hilt by the West, of course). But this will change, I can’t imagine anybody staying in power after such a catastrophe.
However, Pashinian gone does not at all mean that pro-Russian, or even Russia-neutral, forces will succeed him. In fact, as in most chaotic situations, it is the extremists who are most likely to seize power. And God only knows what they might do next!
In a paradoxical way, the best outcome for Russia would be to have Pashinian stay in power just a little longer, just long enough to create a fait accompli on the ground which no nutcases could meaningfully overturn.
Right now, two things are happening: Armenian refugees are clogging the only roads which will allow them to flee to Armenia. These poor people will never trust the word of an Azeri or, even less so, a Turk, could say (and who could blame them?!).
This is truly a heart-breaking tragedy which could have been completely avoided had Pashinian and his Sorosites done a few, really basic, things (preparing for war and settling for an imperfect peace agreement for starters).
Armenian-NK forces are also withdrawing, and it’s not like they have much of an option here: escaping with their lives is really all these poor soldiers could hope for (and by no fault of theirs, I would add!).
The next couple of weeks will be crucial and I can only hope that the Russians are fully ready to deal with any contingency, including a complete Armenian turnaround if Pashinian is overthrown very soon.
It is now a race against the clock: on one side, the West wants Russia out at quite literally *ANY* costs in Azeri and Armenian lives while the Russians are scrambling to make the agreement a well-defended reality on the ground. In the Ukraine they say that “the West is willing to fight Russia down the the very last Ukrainian“. I hope and pray that this does not happen in the Caucasus.
PS: on the really sad and tragic side, I personally can’t imagine any refugees willing to come back, in spite of all the pious promises made by all sides. Look, let’s be honest here: during the first NK war, which the Armenians won, the Azeris were brutally expelled, there were several instances of mass murder of Azeri civilians by the triumphant Armenian forces. This time around, the Azeris made all sorts of promises, but if I was an Armenian I would not trust a single word the Turks or Azeris say (heck, these two still deny that there was any genocide of Armenians by the Ottomans!). Keep in mind that in this short war, about 4000 civilians have died; that is the official figure, the real one is probably even worse!
Maybe in a decade or two, and only if Russia remains the peacekeeper of the Caucases, will some refugees, or their sons and daughters return to their historical homelands. But right now, the Russian peacekeeping force will probably end up maintaining the peace in a very empty Nagorno-Karabakh. This is a revolting outcome which, I will repeat this, could have been avoided by Pashinian and his gang of Sorosites. May that be a lesson to anybody else taking these evil clowns seriously!
Any intel on Soros just being a lieutenant of the Rothschilds?
Please explain far more fully why this will be “a very empty Nagorno-Karabakh.” Are there not possibilities for “the peace” there to become able to make that land more attractive a place to live? Why not?
Eric, I think The Saker explains that in his penultimate paragraph. In short, neither side trusts the other side as far as they could throw ’em – and rightly so.
I was horrified to read that the Armenians massacred Azeri civilians. It’s really not smart – quite apart from the moral aspect – to give a more powerful enemy a pretext for doing likewise when he gets the chance.
Militarily speaking, it seems that NK is now “no man’s land”. No one chooses to go there, and certainly not to live there.
It is a mountainous place, valleys and hillsides, now festooned with mines, IEDs, artillery shells, booby traps all making for a very treacherous environment. Eventually, many years from now after the area is cleared of dangerous munitions, it may return to life.
The right of return only applies to those Armenians who were previous residents there, and of course the original Azeris who were forced out..
The main things is, return to what? Their last act was to torch their homes, so a dream to return seems highly unlikely..
No Armenian in his right mind will trust the Ottoman-Azerbaijan-Headchopper Alliance for a nanosecond, and who could blame them. As for the 750000 Azeris expelled from Nagorno Karabakh and the surrounding areas in 1993, they’re thirsting for vengeance, and who could blame them either.
Even the remaining Armenian civilians in the rump Nagorno Karabakh know that the agreement with Russian protection is just for five years. Who will want to try and make a new life knowing that it could ask have to be abandoned just five years down the line?
Yes, it is the truth.
i saw this happening in February 1996 when 150 000 Serbs around Sarajevo abandoned their homes and houses …
Exodus of civilians, after Dayton agreement was made and all these suburbs were given to Bosniak muslims …
That exodus was terrible to see … Serbs did not want to remain to live under muslim rule and they left.
It was not exodus under some military pressure or escaping war and military operations
It was because of political agreement and that is why it was even more tragic …people just picked up their basic property and left … in the middle of the winter
The same thing happens now in areas around N. Karabah
So now when I see this Armenian exodus, that put my memories back to 1996.
And our hatred is awful thing but it cannot even compare with this tragic Azeri-Armenian hatred.
Very sad and very tragic.
I hope that Armenians will take right conclusions and experience after this defeat, to get rid of any mythomania and thirst for revenge and to focus to economic and cultural development on the lands they control.
I wish to them to find strength to achieve new national renaissance.
I feel for them … after all tragedies they suffered in their tragic history
They have to stay with Russia and to get rid of their pro-West illusions.
I think I now understand the reason:
Sat. 14 NOVEMBER 2020, 9:15 AM
Armenians set fire to homes before handing village over to Azerbaijan
Not only that. They also dig up the graves of their relatives and take them away with them so as not to give the opportunity to mock the dead.
You forget to mention that in the late 1980s approx. 250 thousand Armenians were expelled from Azerbaijan. Armenia housed 250 thousand refugees.
All Armenians should read the preamble analysis to your article, Saker.
Five main mysteries of the second Karabakh war
by Evgenii Krutikov
original Russian text: https://vz.ru/world/2020/11/12/1070326.html
Then they will see who is to blame for this outcome.
I tend to be more suspicious than you. I think the idea was to draw Russia into a war. Thus, the Armenian leadership “failures” outlined in the Russian analysis.
The calculus was make it dire enough for Russia to come save the Armenians, then unleash the Turk proxies and mire the Russians in a disaster.
Armenians everywhere have the hearts of the world for the genocide they suffered. But they have wasted that support by turning away from Russia and now blaming Russia for not saving them from the leadership they supported.
The people of N-K are now refugees and some are leaving and burning down their homes as they go.
A very tragic event.
Saker, your SitRep is well done. With the links you provide and the preamble analysis by Krutikov the entire story is here in a nutshell.
The Culprits, the Stupid, the Victims, the Aftermath, and the ongoing geopolitical machinations that will never stop as the obsession by the US and UK and Turks against Russia continues.
I fully agree with you. The coup d’etat of 2018 was only the beginning. A Soros puppet was placed in power. And what does the puppet do in 2020, when the Azeris launch an attack ? Basically nothing. He does not mobilize the Armenian military, leaving Nagorno Karabakh to it’s fate, as only token forces were sent. Anybody familiar with military history knows that a well prepared army which is defending has an advantage over the army which is attacking, because the defending army picks the places where it want’s to fight, and these places have strong defensive positions. Had Armenia done a proper job, I don’t think Azerbaijan could have done much, if anything, and suffering huge losses in the process. There is no doubt in my mind that Soros puppets in Yerevan had instructions to ensure that Armenia lost, drawing Russia into a war.
” For the Empire, this means the total loss of the axis of instability which they lovingly tried to create in the Caucasus and the Middle-East to eventually hit the Russian underbelly. They failed”. Yes, they failed.
When that coup d’etat was instigated in 2018, everybody inside Armenia should have known what would happen, namely that Azerbaijan would launch an attack and that the West would not respond. What did the US, France, Germany and Britain do ? Nothing. No doubt many in Armenia were shocked. I presume they are now more mature.
In the first stage of the war, everything went as the West planned. However, this was not the case in the second stage. The fighting ceased at lightning speed, an agreement was made at lighting speed, and the Russian military went into Nagorno-Karabakh at lightning speed. Instead of being drawn into a war and a muddy political situation, Russia executed clear cut diplomatic and military moves, showing tremendous skills. Lavrov was brilliant.
The only mystery for me is the fact that both Armenia and Azerbaijan had the strength to go against the West and accept Russian mediation. I presume Azerbaijan was scared if Russia was drawn into a conflict, while the Armenian leadership was terrified if the whole of Nagorno-Karabakh fell to the Azeris, knowing what the reactions would be inside Armenia.
And now what ? The West has been brilliantly outmaneuvered by Russia. Instead of creating political and military insecurity in the Caucuses – namely chaos – the West handed the initiative over to Russia. I presume NATO has again been impressed by the efficiency of the Russian military.
@ B.F. “I presume NATO has again been impressed by the efficiency of the Russian military.”
I do not think that is the case. I think NATO has been caught ‘off guard’. NATO thrives on this sort of conflict. It is the ‘excuse for NATOs’ existence… to ‘counter Russia’. Russia just acted faster than expected. NATO probably was running of the ‘Syria game plan’ where the country almost decendes into ‘failed state status’ before Russia’s interjection. Perhaps Russia saw this coming hence the lightning fast reaction.
If the Armenians have any sense and can see what has happened in the Balkans, Georgia, Ukraine, Syria etc, then Armenia will play a ‘wild card’ and have a snap referendum on quadrupling Russia’s presence on the western boarder, arrest the Soros puppets, and oust all NGO’s instantly. This could be done in a week if you arrested Pashinyan. Is it going to happen..? No, it is not. But it would close Armenia to The West permanently, put Azerbaijan in its place (effectively trapped between Russia, Iran and a ‘hostile Armenia’) forcing it to adopt peaceful options, and force all Western influence out. Turkey would have to put its plans on the back-burner for a decade and the ‘gas pipeline’ would be ‘more easily managed’.
We can but dream.
It would appear that NATO constantly gets caught off guard. It happened in 2014 in Crimea, when Russian Spetsnats commandos outmaneuvered NATO and Ukrainian commandos outside Sevastopol, as NATO set it’s eyes on the naval base. A year later Putin sends an expeditionary force to Syria. NATO is again taken by surprise, not only by the efficiency of Russian high tech, but by the efficiency of the actual landing of Russian forces in the country. And now we have this episode in Karabakh.
NATO is a multinational force of different armies. It’s quality needs to be questioned. Yes, the bulk of those troops are American, but even so, I think the multinational character of NATO will lead to it’s eventual dissolution.
Still Russian commandos did not outmaneuver NATo at Odessa/Mariupol…where Russian resitance was crushed…
You can not be perfect..one guess,,,,
Who does not remeber “outa my face” guy running amok in Mariupol?
@ ‘Anonymous’ – “Who does not remeber “outa my face” guy running amok in Mariupol?”
Who is the “outa my face” guy running amok in Mariupol? I do not know about this. More info please. Links, photographs. I’d like to read up on this.
I was writing about Sevastopol. Odessa/Muriupol did not see any Russian commandos, only civilians.
Is NATO being multinational the only feature which might harm military efficacy, B.F.? Or are there more viable factors?
“The new Third Generation tactics developed by the Germans in World War I were the first non-linear tactics… It prized initiative over obedience and it depended on self-discipline rather than imposed discipline… American services remain almost wholly Second Generation, to the frustration of many junior officers.”
~ “The Four Generations of Modern War,” William S. Lind
When people fight and die for the oligarchic plutocracy running NATO and similar countries, can they have a lot of initiative and self-discipline for higher efficacy? Or would that cause them to stop following a corrupt plutocracy? The Saker has a point about “Soviet” training sometimes being better, but isn’t that part of why the Bolshevik Union is gone?
What you wrote are additional factors why NATO will see dissolution, all the more so since Europe saw two world wars and there is no mood for a third one, especially not after the destruction of the second one.
Correct, B.F. Now, turn the situation around: What if NATO remained a multinational military alliance, yet it actually served the public good rather than only the “good” of banker gangsters? Why would only the multinational element cause dissolution?
The NATO forces copy the American military in many ways. The first thing we need to grasp is that the US military is a racket, pure and simple. It is and can never be an effective fighting force neither in it civilian “leadership” nore its senior military leadership. The qualities that allow people to advance as officers from Captain to Major have nothing whatever to do with the ability to fight and lead a fight. The US military exists as an object of fetishistic worship (the most popular institution in the country by far) and, more importantly, as a way to make fabulous amounts of money from the credulity of the chumps. US wars are about using up ordinance and make no sense from a military POV other than to blow stuff up and terrorize civilians. The Russians outmaneuver NATO only because NATO is a fake organization that exists to exist. The more Russia “wins” the more NATO and the Pentagon can raise the alarm about Russian aggression which results in increased funding.
I don’t think I could have said it better myself. As for US, yes it would try (to whatever extend) to meddle, so would the UK, (both under very dire internal circumstances), and all that would be roundly ignored by Russia, but the Turks, well, they will be the main recipients of the Putin’s wrath. They have commited another unforgivable crime against Russia and the most severe payback is coming. As I said before, the deluded Turk will really feel the burn. Russians never forget or forgive. As for the Armenians, lots of them are very much pro-Russian, but as usual, they are also very much the silent majority.. We only hear the shrill voices, unfortunately.
The day after the arrival of the first Russian peacekeepers, who appear to be children, Mr Putin graciously loaded a new nuclear reactor onto a boat bound for Turkey !
Perhaps you have an insight into what category of payback this represents, and how ‘The Sultan of Swing’ will feel the burn?
You will obviously have noted the gulf between how events are portrayed in the English-language media, and how it & local opinion is vastly different in a more native tongue?
Perhaps off topic, but I would note General Muradov seems to be of Muslim origin. (I have no idea if he is practicing or not) But I take it as a very positive sign that such things are no barrier to a successful military career in Russia. I wonder if the Russian media mentioned this, or if it is so ordinary that no one considers it worth mentioning.
There is no more “Muslim origin” as there is “Orthodox origin”.
One is of these religions in the heart, or one is not.
religion NEVER was a problem in the Imperial Russian, Soviet or New Russian times.
This is why I exhaust myself explaining to the Alt-Right type that Russia will NOT come to “rescue” the Alt-Right or anything else in the ex-Christian West.
As for mentioning it, just the name tells any Russian all they need to know :-)
No offense intended. I, as a non-Russian, might be surprised by things Russians take for granted.
“This is why I exhaust myself explaining to the Alt-Right type that Russia will NOT come to “rescue” the Alt-Right or anything else in the ex-Christian West.”
Nor should it. None of them are rushing to help Russia.
Kind regards from a long time reader from “the old days.”
Well, Rus is a big big country with 12 timezones and one cannot be picky to who’s what. If Rus gets wealthy and more populated (say 2 billion people) then you’ll see all that come out.
Racism happens when there’s atleast two hungry dogs and one bowl of food.
I think the chief reason why Russia will not come to the ex-Christian West is the number of invasions this same West launched against Russia. And the overall result ? About four years ago, a Polish website stated that a time will come when native Europeans from Western Europe will start emigrating to Russia. I would not be surprised if this turned out to be the case.
That depends on how one defines “religion,” yes? For example, in Soviet Russia where, as Marx believed, “a man… will move around himself as his own true Sun,” people with “religions” not recognizing Lenin, Stalin, etc. as their true Sun would not have a good time.
In New Russia, where, as Putin believes, people “showcased the power of the concepts of truth and justice,” those with “religions” not recognizing truth and justice would not have a good time.
And the interpretation of “religion” as ideology or metaphysical beliefs affecting actions is why Russia is already “rescuing” the “ex-Christian West.” After all, isn’t Russia a major component of helping “Westerners” “Question More” about our plutocracy’s beliefs and policies?
You do know that Chechen soldiers are the spearhead of Russian troops in Syria and they were in the Georgia war too. Religion means no more in the Russian military than eye colour or left or right handedness does.
As the Saker says below, the Amerikastani alt right (or whatever they want to be called) who claim Russia is the last bastion of Christendom or the white race or whatever have no idea of Russia at all.
chechen soldiers (and others of muslim origin) were specifically picked for syrian operations actually. it’s way easier to cooperate with religious locals then you share beliefs. as for georgian war, chechens (and muslims) were neither “spearhead” nor majority – due to the same reasons.
and yes, russia is multinational and multireligious state, sure. even those who claim themselves russian could be, in fact, ethnical swedes with ukrainian name. i’m the one :)
Another Muslim, Chief of Azarbaijani General Staff, Gen. Sedigov, or Daguestani origin, resigned because of the de facto take over of command by other muslims, Turkish military ( although there are a bucnh of secular in Turkish military anyway..)
What this war seemed to achieve is erasing any remain of Soviet militart from both countries, and this poitns all the way to a NATO goal, by passing or inital, i bet the later…
Soros gets involved innocent people die. It’ seems to be a recurring theme here.
On a different note, Russia seems to be a doing a lot of genuine peace keeping duties around its boarders. @ Saker: how is Russia’s defense budget integrating these ‘peace keeping duties’ into the broader military complex? How big is the Russian contingent in Armenia? Will it be increased or just redistributed? I wouldn’t think it a good idea to leave ‘the west’ of Armenia with a reduced contingent.
It seems to me that most analyses of this tragedy assume ostensible incompetence of Pashinyan and his Sorosite associates, which makes very little sense to me. If we name only two of his recent “accomplishments”:
– Alienating Russia, not only as a state, but even the public opinion.
– Causing another war on Russia’s doorstep and causing it waste time and attention.
My guess is that his sponsors, the usual suspects who invested significant resources to have him installed, are not unhappy with his performance.
In my opinion, one should apply a simple heuristics when analyzing similar situations, let’s call it the reverse Hanlon’s razor: “Never attribute to stupidity that which is adequately explained by treason”.
You mention the “accomplishments”, but please keep in mind that all that was really achieved by these Sorosites was to reestablish the Russian dominance over the Caucasus, a disaster for the AngloSphere by any measure.
I suspect that that the intent in this war was to draw Russia into a potential quagmire with Azerbaijan and Turkey. This was the “Armenian Soroites” aim, but, as we see, it has backfired. The US idea was, as with Syria to use the Turks as cannon fodder to weaken the Russians militarily and diplomatically. Thus the “incompetence” may have had this motive given the nature of the Armenian leadership.
The US was indeed trying to do this to Turkey in Syria for a long while, while Erdoğan was attempting the opposite and trying to draw in NATO. Eventually Turkey entered, but using the Takfiri mercenaries, not its regular forces, while Russia entered, but only to aid Syrian forces, except for some aerial bombing and advising.
The same was being tried in Ukraine, but Russia did not budge. It was not to be drawn into another Afghanistan scenario. Something that the US would dearly love to see. However, each time the US attempts such a ruse, it backfires on them, and makes Russia stronger.
It is interesting how Erdoğan keeps dodging the bullet thanks to Russia.
The analysis in the Saker’s articles on this war are excellent.
Anyone interested should read his articles.
Thanks for posting this.
FYI, one can find accurate yet reasonably priced translators on Fiverr. (I have used them many times in the recent past.)
As much as I dislike Pashinian, I cannot rejoice at the idea that the town of Shusha, with its historical monasteries, will go in Azeri hands.
The UK seems to be happy with the agreement.
Dominic Raab, foreign secretary :
“The UK welcomes agreement by Azerbaijan & Armenia to end the #NagornoKarabakh conflict. They have made difficult decisions to prevent further loss of life. We encourage all sides to continue working together for a lasting peace settlement in the interests of their citizens”
(I guess they have their hands full with Brexit..)
The Armenian National Committee America (ANCA) are now trying to lobby the US to invalidate the agreement based on the fact OSCE Minsk didn’t sign on.
As the Arrmenian diaspora now go through the five stages of grief, (denial is the first stage), they will try to lobby foreign powers to get the agreement overturned it seems…
Always remember that UK diplomats are the worst liars on the planet!
Never trust a word they say.
Also, Raab says one thing to the media
and Moore will say something VERY different to the Turks
This we can certainly agree on. They didn’t get the moniker “perfidious Albion” for nothing. The US is just a larger version of the UK, maybe a little less devious, as well as a little less competent.
Interesting rhetoric by Mr. Raab, who welcomes the agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but conveniently “forgets” the key role of Russia in its mediation as well as coming peacekeeping efforts.
And what a coincidence, Sweden’s foreign minister Ann Linde also made a similar omission in a recent statement on the subject.
God forbid if Russia was given due credit for making peace, right? Who knows, ordinary people could even start questioning Russophobia as a result!
This is exactly why I feel nothing but contempt for Western politicians.
Saker, very much agree with you but this isn’t about incompetence, this is all about treason!
The capture of Shushi is the smoking gun and enables you to see the truth:
How can one capture a village which is a natural fortress only by light infantry passing through a narrow canyon while the enemy can comfortably annihilate your forces by artillery fire from both sides? More important: How can one only dare to try it this way (which means suicide) in the first place?
The answer for me is obvious – you know from the beginning that the enemy will not do much harm to your forces and will soon be ordered to retire. Shushi was presented to the Azeris on a silver plate! Think also about what you have written in your first analysis of the situation (that only very few armies in the world have the capacity to capture such mountainious areas). And even that was not meant for this route to Shushi but over the Lachin corridor.
Sounds like a comedy: Azeris are not able to get there even now (with no hostile fire) by busses or trucks because there is no road to Shushi on their part of the territory! They just asked Russia for permission to use the Lachin corridor for transfer!
Without going into details – There is enough evidence that not only the Armenian gouvernment but also the high command of the Armenian Army (brought in by Pashinian) was bought and betrayed their own country. There are numerous credible reports about most of the weapons sent in by Russia not being transferred to NKR. Thousands of potential volunteers from all over the world are reporting unison that they were told: “we have enough manpower, just donate money!” There were also many unexplicable “tactical retreats” in the earlier phases of the war. This degree of incompetence is simply not credible.
I don’t believe Turks would be able to buy the Armenian political/military leadership. I am pretty sure, Zionists are able to do that – easily. Who knows what they posess to pressure Pashinyan.
What about this? Israel offers Azerbaijan/Aliyev the capture of Karabakh (Aliyev needed this success very much to maintain his reign) and gets in exchange permission for attacking Iran from Azerbaijani territory. Trump could be pushed right now to attack Iran before he leaves office. This would be the perfect timing with all the blame for anything going wrong (there would be a lot of that) put on Trump by western media. I guess Iranians would retaliate in this case by destroying large parts of Azerbaijan.
But even Aliyev being smart enough to allow only the stationing of pro zionist forces on his territory (but not allowing them to attack) would come with a high cost to Iran by forcing them to accumulate considerable potential in the northern part which would lack then in the south. I think this time around the main target was Iran, not Russia! (which, of course, could have been a very nice collateral damage – but that at least didn’t happen).
You are 100% correct – treason, incompetence is second to treason in this case. In wars in Bosnia and Croatia, many times important positions were abandoned without shot fired. The most blatant was abandoning city of Knin, considered capital of Republic of Srpska Krajina, area populated by Serbs, 90%, since 1600s.
Similarly to Shusha, city of Knin was abandoned out of blue. The order came, from Belgrade supposedly, to retreat and evacuate the civilians. Knin is very defendable, it lays at the bottom of enormous pit basically. Only one road goes through the city. On both ends the road out of Knin is in steep ascent, many serpentines and exposed points on the road, so enemy cannot simply descend into city from above. It is canyon on both sides, easily defendable. Joke was going around that a platoon of infantry could defend Knin easily. As a consequence, armed forces retreated, with them civilians. Once they came out at the clear terrain, Croats launched operation “Storm” and “Flash”, which consisted of air attacks and staffing of civilians. Nothing surprising, the operations were planned and controlled by retired NATO officers.
I don’t know where the armed units were at the moment of attacks. It sure is no big problem shooting low flying Mig-21 from hand held launchers (OSA?). The city was abandoned out of blue, without any short or long term strategic or tactical gain. Then civilians were left in the open, defenseless against Croatian Migs. That my friends was a real crime by Milosevic. Guess what, in Hague no mention of this episode, and eventually he was not even convinced. Hi died in detention, but after the case was kind of dropped. The things they were charging him were either false or meaningless. Real crimes were never mentioned, because those were committed against Serbs, not Muslims or Croats. There were several episodes like this one, this one is the one the world knows most about. That is why Serbs hate him.
Trump is in the process of retreating the US from the middle east, that is why he sacked the SoD and a few Pentagon officials, they sabotaged Trump’ s order to retreat from the middle east including Syria and Afghanistan. I am not sure, but i think Trump even ordered the retreat of US navy from the Persian Gulf, i saw somewhere on an interactive map that there is no US navy there also no US airforce. Anyway Trump’s hostility towards Iran is more of an economical nature not military even though he likes to act macho and tough towards Iran. Trump’s main adversaries are Nato, Germany and China. China is mainly because of economical reasons, not military, Germany and Nato is more because they support the globalist faction in the US and are the real existential threat to Trump’s USA.
Dave, you know about “War is a Racket,” right? Major General Smedley Butler? He said, “I spent more of my time being a high–class muscle man for Big Business… a gangster for capitalism.”
Trump is part of a system where economical and military reasons are the same thing. Why is he so special he can separate these? Especially since the continued radicalization of Chinese Uighurs, the assassination of General Soleimani, etc. are undeniably military matters?
Your Zionist theory sounds quite plausible due the recent events on the killing of AQ number 2 in Iran past summer by Israelis…
If that is so, Aliyev will lost everything, after so many years in charge…he will not spared, highly likley is in for the spoil next, after allowing he Troy Horse inside.
One can only wish the peacekeeping forces good luck… as they will need that… no matter how good their weapons and commander… Armenia seems to be a dead fish… NK… as you say empty, and Azerbaijan with their friend Erdogan as chief instigator … if it wasn’t for the worse scenario of an Erdogan planting so many thousands of his terrorists too close to Russia – Russia would let these two A’s handle their own affairs… … The West have been trouble makers terrorizing the world the last 400 years… time all terrorists are eradicated… and truely only Russia can and will do that… Don’t rely on China to do such, they will move and do business as soon as Russia has done the hard work…..
All this stuff is a preamble to the real underbelly, Kazakhstan. These are flies and irritants compared to that.
I have only one message for President Putin. Secure your near abroad a 100%. If not, this kinda sh*t will keep happening over and over.
Just acting president of Kyrgizstan resigned, “to be able to participate in the coming election as common citzen” to be celebrated January 2021…One would wonder, why he took over for then?
Beware of vaccums of power in the current situation…One would say someone wish to provoke Russia into overestretching
First of all I’m very glad that Russia has managed to get the two sides to stop killing each other. That’s the most important immediate aim.
The only thing that gives me cause for optimism for the peacekeeping deal is that once RF gets its peacekeepers in, it can prove to be a very tough nut to crack, and it brings results. We need only look at Syria.
Like Saker says, the next weeks or months are crucial. Looking at the political situation in Armenia, Pashinyan looks like the best bet for RF in the short term, if only to get some semblance of order because Armenia can’t be allowed to descend into chaos — that would be a double disaster for Armenia. Perhaps also to open a window for RF to push a deal that allows reinforcements to the base in Gyumri.
Is Azerbaijan really firmly in Turkey’s orbit? I’m not too sure. It is interesting that Aliev didn’t insist on Turkey — his chief overt backer — being at the table when the ceasefire deal was being hammered out. To me this indicates that he may be wary of Turkey taking over, guiding his hand, as it were. Aliev may actually not be too keen on Erdogan’s ‘Turkic Brotherhood’ idea. In the course of six weeks of fighting, it was Turkey that did most of of the talking about Turkic brotherhood. Of course, Aliev will go Turkic when it suits him but overall I think he wants to maintain his independence.
The other thing of course is the influence of the ‘Invisible Man’, Israel, who are competing with Turkey in Azerbaijan, more so since the falling out post the Mavi Marmara incident. Many forget that Azerbaijan started developing close relations with Israel — much to Iran’s chagrin — almost immediately after becoming independent. Erdogan only came on the scene a decade later and his Turkic brotherhood idea even later, after he and AKP’s ideologue, Ahmet Davutoglu, had a falling out. Before that it was all about ‘strategic depth’, ‘zero problems with neighbours’ (read Balkans) and ‘neo-Ottomanism’, meaning ‘relaxed’ attitudes towards Turkey’s minorities, particularly the Kurds, internally, and the Middle East externally, just like in the days of the Ottoman Empire.
Still, it is early days yet and we’ll have to wait to see how the situation unfolds.
Last but not least, this is just another iteration of the AZEmpire’s efforts to cause problems for Russia. RF’s other post-Soviet siblings are also threatened. I’ve no doubts that CSTO members are targets for similar treatment. The only consolation is that RF has proven it’s very good at fighting small fires, and coming out in a stronger position after the firefighting
Yes, I tend to agree, but I would think that this would be a US attempt to use one of its assets, Pashinyan, to help draw Russia into a quagmire similar to Afghanistan. Wherever, the US finds any potential weak links, it will exploit them in order to distract and weaken Russia. The Ukraine, Belarus, now Armenia. It is predictable.
And, yes, Pashinyan and his lot are traitors, though they won’t see it that way. Armenian leaders have long believed, if you provoke others into creating enough suffering for your own population, then, if the horrors are great enough, help will arrive from your allies to save the day, and give you a Greater Armenia to rule over.
Oh yes Bluedotterel I’ve no doubt the US would love to draw Russia into a quagmire. Only this time, I think FUKUS/Nato were caught napping. I believe Turkey didn’t ‘coordinate’ with its Nato partners and none of them expected a big Azeri offensive so soon after the shoot-out in July. Turkey wanted to make it it’s show and grab the dividends for itself. Aliev took care not to attack Armenia proper, that relieved Russia of the need to enter the conflict big-time, and spoilt the US’s plans. At the moment, Aliev has solidified his position domestically and is probably adored by every Azeri on the planet.
That people like Pashinyan were/are working for the AZEmpire is obvious. His handler probably works somewhere in that enormous US embassy in Yerevan. It’s unfortunate that the alternatives are no better, corrupt and basically kleptomaniacs. Armenia sorely needs a patriot to lead it.
Russia is getting ready for the collapse of the New (old) World Order. Those who want to survive will have to be in Russia’s good books as it is the only benevolent mega-power willing to help those who want to help themselves. Hungarians yesterday declared marriage as a union between woamn and man exclusively and banned adoption of children by members of LGBTxxx cabal while the EU is preparing further suicidal LGBTxxx policies.
Dmitri Orlov predicts that the world will be divided into countries that will have just enough of resources to survive the incoming (now certain) collapse and countries that will not have enough strength, elasticity, energy and life energy to survive.
Hungarians want to live. Armenians not so much as they chose Soros.
Serbia too got a new government packed to the hilt with Sorosoids and rabid anti-Russians. Yesterday the tall gelding (fittingly labeled by Larchmonter445 in September following Vucic’s disaster in Washington) that calls himself President of Serbia proudly declared that “the IMF has allowed an increase in wages for public workers”. So, the IMF is a de-facto ruler of Serbia according to him. He also declared that Serbia chose the Pfizer (Bill Gates’) vaccine snubbing the Russians who offered an actually working COVID19 vaccine which would have been produced in Serbia under Russian licence. He also threatens with compulsory vaccinations again provoking the people to rebel again as they did in July forcing him to cancel the then planned curfew in the middle of summer. A couple months ago Serbia also introduced sanctions against Belarus after everything Lukashenko did for Serbia. Serbia was very quick in congratulating Biden for his “win” instead of introducing sanctions against the US for the fraudulent elections.
So Serbia, like Armenia, is firmly on the path to suicide and decided to euthanise herself.
Then some Serbs start to complain why Russia is not helping them when the Republic of Srpska in Bosnia gets overrun in the future or why Putin retreated from Nato occupied Kosovo. Guess why? Serbia never offered Russia a military base! Heck, they even block the working of a Russian humanitarian organization in Serbia cause the West is worried about that too.
Exactly. There are important lessons to be learned for those willing to learn. This latest Karabakh war saw a heavy use of drones. Azeris chose the Turkish tech for that. Muslims in Bosnia may also get some crazy ideas. With Erdogan crazy enough to oblige, the Serbs better start seeing from which side the bread is buttered.
Which side the bread is buttered is quite obvious when you witness how far the ambitions of Erdogan regime ( with or without NATO beneplacit… I feel inclined to think with it…see Syrian war…)
See what Erdogan´s Director of Communications publishes at his Twitter account, even fro the blind to get it…
Yes, it says it all:
“From Jabali Tariq to Hejaz, from the Balkans to Asia, all humanity is longing for.”
I’m surprised he doesn’t say “From Andalus to Xinjiang” – since Western Europe will soon have enough Muslims to be considered a proper subject of the caliphate…
This is a dangerous ideology, and the Caucus and Central Asia will have no peace if the people there do not wake up to what Turkey’s mad ambitions risk bringing them. They are yet to realise that while the West works to persuade them that “democracy and human rights” requires that they adopt Russophobia as their guiding doctrine, the same West eggs Erdogan on along his dream of becoming “Amir al-Mu’minin” – hoping to use him against Russia and eventually China, as Xinjian is included in the caliphate…
Actually, he mentions al-Andalus since Jabal Tariq is Gibraltar. And my guess is that when he says Asia, he is not stopping at the Bosporus.An excerpt from the article of the online Encyclopaedia Britannica on Tariq ibn Ziyad:”In May 711 Ṭāriq landed on Gibraltar with an army of 7,000 men, mostly Berbers, Syrians, and Yemenis. Gibraltar henceforth became known as Jabal Ṭāriq (Mount Tarik), from which the Anglicized form of the name is adapted.” Just a correction of a gross inaccuracy in the article.The rock in question had been named for a thousand years, since the romans, Mons Calpe (Mount Calpe). The Moors changed it to Jabal Tariq. Later it was hispanized, not anglicized, to Gibraltar, and much later name and land stolen by perfidious Albion.
Yes, interesting…after humiliation in White House, Vucic no more talk about brotherhood with Russia and steel friendship with China and brother Xi.
Now only America, America and America
And he does not want Russian vaccine any more…he is waiting for western vaccine
An objective observer who followed the turn of events in Montenigeria under red ustasha Djukanovic could have predicted the turn of events in Serbia under Vucic. Nothing new under the Sun. The problem is the timing. There is no more time for such games.
As a Muslim I find it extremely troublesome that Muslim combatants would partake in wanton killing of the innocent, murder the surrendered soldier.
The first Caliph, Abu Bakr Al-Siddiq ordered his commanders to:
Do not commit treachery or deviate from the right path, do not mutilate dead bodies, do not kill a woman or a child or an aged man. Do not cut down fruitful trees, do not destroy inhabited areas, do not slaughter any of the enemies’ sheep, cow or camel except for food. Do not burn date palms, nor inundate them. Do not embezzle (e.g. no misappropriation of booty or spoils of war) nor be guilty of cowardliness.
I have the impression that Russian troops follow these directives better than many Muslim soldiers.
My friend, you are dealing with the remnants of revenge societies. It has nothing to do with religion per se. In the Caucasus and the Balkans, did for tat massacres between tribal or social groups have taken place for centuries. Honor killings are hardly unique even today among Caucasians and Eastern Anatolians.
Even the alleged Armenia genocide was a result of decades of terrorist attacks by Armenian nationalists against the Ottoman peoples, as well as the economic consequences of the disastrous Balkan wars. Some people still imagine that the decision to remove Armenians from the war zones in WWI was some heinous act, whereas, it was common practice in those days. Even Czarist Russia did so. The difference was the extremely bad blood that had developed between the Kurds and Armenians, as well as the usual bigoted tribalism that accompanies such wars. It is far more complicated than the simplistic mantra “the Armenian genocide” would suggest.
But, muslim brother, consider that here were in play probably not muslim forces…
At Colonel Cassad site, there are photogrphas of the fatermath of the war with multiple corpses of death military men who seemd to die in a breath, sone of the photographs showing even how a drone got into a van by entering it from bac doors…These dromes is not possible they could manage them neither your average mercenary jihadi nor the Azerabijanis, as they need highly qualified exeprtise.
Amongst the photographs you will find one of a car which was painted with nazi symbols, and you wil underatand these were not muslims who did this, but extremist from Turkey or some European country…
Recall here that Grey Wolves are secular extremist fascist forces.
Do not blame always all the savagery on muslims ,as it is the custom today, pushed forward by some Western powers, to get beneplacit of the peoples for war on Iran.
We some know, by reading the muslim relate on the crusades, how Saladin behave when he took over Jerusalem…Also from at least one film I think based on the essay by Amin Maalouf on the crusades…There are other lands, and other muslims….we know….
Andrei My Orthodox Brother,
I owe you an apology. You were right and I was wrong. Does that mean my heart doesn’t break for the Armenians of Artsakh? My heart breaks for them. We have Armenian relatives and friends (my wife’s side). I know an Armenian American girl who’s family was driven out of Baku during the last war in the 1990’s. I love the Armenian people and their history, their culture, their music and their ancient Christian roots. This hurts, but you were right. However I think with Russian troops there maybe Armenians will return if they see stability. Maybe Azeris will return too. Nobody needs the Turks though those devious bastards can stay in Turkey. God bless Armenia and Russia (and the Azeri people) may this be a lasting peace.
“Why is it that the democratic, progressive and advanced forces like, say, the Saudis, …”
Hahahahaha :))) !
The Armenia side had an illigitimate claim on the area that prevented them going all in.
Officially the area belongs to Azerbaijan and no one was going to back them so they did the minimum and let it go.
All the main actors outside couldn’t care less who wins each side uses the conflict for its own goals.
Russia did not gain anything in this conflict. What Turkey and Israel have proven is that they possess technology like for example the Israeli Harop (suicide drone/ flying munition) which can take out Russian air defenses because of their small radar cross section and can take out soft targets without putting their own troops at risk in the frontline. Next in line is Bosnia. Sorosite Vucic is going to cry and beg Nato to intervene and “rescue” the Bosnian Serbs. LOL
Yes, another forgotten goal is that this war to massacre indefense Armenians served as miltary maneuvers for a coming ( it seems at galloping pace,,as the last “revelation” by NYT citing Israeli intelligence on the “neutralization” of second in rangr AQ in Iran past summer…) war on Iran…
1. There is absolutely nothing keeping the Ottomans from coercing the Azeris to allow a substantial Ottoman military presence in Azerbaijanistan (including the former territory of the so called state of Artsakh). The absence of Ottoman “peacekeepers” (hahahahaha) in Nagorno Karabakh is at best an annoyance.
2. The agreement is for five years. What happens on the first day, Year Six, when Azerbaijanistan orders Russia out and then simply rolls over the rump Nagorno Karabakh?
3. I have been reading the Armeniganda online. They’re busy manufacturing consent for a concerted effort to blame Russia. Pro or anti Pashinyan makes no difference, the blame is on Russia.
4. The article quoted by the Saker misses an important point: why, while demanding other countries recognise the self styled so called “Republic of Artsakh”, did Pashinyan not do so?
5. Artsakh resistance collapsed totally after it took a level of attrition beyond its capacity to bear. The whole Azeri-Ottoman-headchopper alliance campaign from the start was a war of attrition, which is why I from the start had discounted the lack of Blitzkrieg offensives. The idea was to wear down the Armenians in a meat grinder until they could no longer resist.
6. The enormous effect of Azeri drones does not factor into the article the Saker quotes. Interviews with Armenian troops repeatedly mention that they were under constant, unrelenting, drone bombardment. Troop concentrations moving from north to south “Artsakh” would probably have been eliminated on the way. And if they had moved, Azerbaijanistan could have easily shifted its offensive weight to the north as well.
I don’t see what the Amerikastani Empire (or, more precisely, its Brutish vassals) could do to imperil the Russian peacekeeping effort now via the Ottomans. If the Pashinyan regime refutes its own agreement and exits the CSTO then the Ottomans will simply roll over what’s left of “Artsakh”. If not, the Azeris will get it all in five years anyway.
Give it a rest mate. It’s getting tiresome.
Pashinyan pleaded with the West for weeks. In the end it was Putin who saved Armenia from a catastrophe. Pashinyan may need Putin’s help to avoid being hung from a lamp post in downtown Yerevan.
Neither Armenia not Azerbaijan is going to join Nato any time soon. ‘Putinite’ Russia won.
Since Armenia was not involved in the war at all officially, how did Putin save it from a “catastrophe”? Armenia was not and is not under threat. The so called Republic of Artsakh was, and is now finished but for the five year delayed formalities.
Do svidaniya vam tozhe, muzhik.
Russian is probably conscious it will not last five years, do not you think?
P.S:Love your cartoons on jihadis and Amerikastanis, btw
Spasibo. Please feel free to share if you want.
As for Russia, I think it’s hoping for the situation in Armenia to change for the better. It will not unless Russia is willing to get its hands slightly dirty.
Yup…Armenia saving itself from itself is next question… inflood of refugees to add to people who do not like the “surrender”..arrests of opposition on allegedly plot to assassinate Prime Minister….creation of a Rescue Council( presumably regarded differently to the one in Belarus..opposition leaders united….?).etc etc..one wonders if non Russian external players might still be thinking of majorly influencing Armenia…..
JJ has a point, Biswa. How could the blowback from letting Azerbaijan and “NATO ally” Turkey (with their “Israeli” weapons and “Syrian rebels”) run Nagorno-Karabakh avoid Armenia in the long term?
The Azeri-Ottoman-headchopper alliance plan was to eliminate the Armenian population of Nagorno Karabakh entirely by forced resettlement (ie, ethnic cleansing) and even though they did not capture the whole place it’s happening right before everyone’s eyes. Armenians who left earlier aren’t returning, those who didn’t leave are getting out. I don’t think that there will be many left soon since Aliyev ruled out any autonomous status for Nagorno Karabakh. Being a “victor” he’s not going to walk back his statement because that’s not what chest thumping victors do. I don’t think in five years there will be much enthusiasm left anywhere for the continued existence of Nagorno Karabakh, or whatever is left of it.
Yes, Biswa, that is certainly how things appear. And when Armenia gets hit with the refugees/migrants, the anti-Armenian mentalities, the “loser” sentiments, etc., it involves Armenia in the war regardless.
Did Putin save Azerbaijan from a catastrophe if Ailyev had not apologised and there had been further action against Russian base and direct involvement within Armenia….and Russia responded militarily?
You have to comprehend only one thing – this still Britain against Russia. British intelligence staged the whole thing, it is behind both sides of this conflict, the Armenians and Azeris/Turkey. I am sure you have heard of Richard Moore, the ex-Ambassador to Turkey and the current head of MI6, lol…
Saker, excellent analysis in addition to the translation. Obviously Armenian top showed treasonous behavior.
I’ll make one comment: many posts talk about nato being caught napping. How can you be caught napping if presumably your are the instigator. In my mind, some three letter agencies may have been stirring the pot but not the nato itself. If nato was the instigator, then there can not be any talk of napping, but of sheer incompetence. Just saying.
I missed aome mention of the crucial role of Turkish military o this allegedly Armenian-Azerbaijani war.
it seems by other reports that Turkish generals literally took over the command of Azerbaijani military and control of drones which they master apart from fabricating, leading to the resignation of Azerbaijani Chief of General Staff…
Do you have a link for that?
All I could find is this:
Apparently he didn’t resign. Azerbaijani chief of staff was dismissed under pressure from Turkish special services who demand that Aliyev “dismiss from command all the generals who have Russian education.”…???
Well, being taken over by a froeign military equates being dismissed, in fact yes.
This probably a NATO goal, more than properly Turkish, to renew Azrbaijani armed froces for its purposes against Russian or Iran.
….”The group, led by Major General Bakhtiar Ersay, head of the Turkish Army’s Operational Directorate, was directly involved in organizing hostilities against Nagorno-Karabakh. ”
Might be relevant info….and worth investigating the group to see what elseits peoples have been up to…..I have always had a suspicion of a rogue element in Turkish intelligence and military….hence the history of the troubles in Idlib and other areas in Syria that Tukey wanted to occupy under various operations…..
Pashinian & his Sorosites are conspiring with the West to pull along Putin into “defending” the Armenians of Nagorny. They pushed the situation to deteriorate for the “Christian Armenians” in order to force the coreligionist Russian “Big Brother” Putin to intervene. Another attempt to gum up Russia in the Caucasus & complicate Russia´s relations with its Muslim minority all over the Federation & beyond. But this time, the operation under MI6 & Turkish MIR direction is executed by corrupt anti-Russian Armenian elites in Erevan! Hard to imagine more blatant treason.
Good point, Ham. The banker gangsters targeting Russia’s coreligionists in Donbass is a similar strategy, as is targeting Iran’s coreligionists in Yemen…
From Cassad: prob no surprise, intel was planning to “do” Pashinyan.
Some additional videos of unrest in Yerevan.
@Biswapriya Purkayastha on November 14, 2020 · at 8:44 am EST/EDT
There is absolutely nothing keeping the Ottomans from coercing the Azeris to allow a substantial Ottoman military presence in Azerbaijanistan
Not so fast. There’s indeed a serious constraint on Azerbaijan: the country’s on the Caspian Sea. As everyone knows, Mother Russia dominates this sea; she can make Azerbaijan pay for stupid mistakes. Aliev isn’t stupid.
Sorry to say that your analysis hit far away from bull’s eye. Geopoliticaly, this war was about future trade routes and redefining one of BRI corridors in favour of Turkey. And the cease fire agreement, achieved this.
We are talking about BRI corridor China-Central Asia- West Asia. All the efforts done by Turkey in this war was to achieve a road + railroad connection between Baku and Nackchevan thus having a direct transit between Baku and east Turkey. Before this war, China- Central Asia- West Asia was planned to go through north Iran corridor. Now Turkey can connect the ports in Turkmenbashi (Turkmenistan) and Baku (Azarbaijan) and redefine the planned BRI corridor to go through “Turkish Brotherhood Area”. The traitor Pashaniyan and his CIA/MI6 advisors helped this to happen and Russians ignored the great damage this would cause for Iran and in a lesser dimension also for themselves (they still got the north corridor).
Level of trust and partnership between Iran and Russia is going to be even more decreased after this. If Russia continue to deliver service to their “Turkish partners” in ME, Caucasus and Central Asia, it wouldn’t take long before Iranians start to ask what type of strategic partnership do we have with Russia?
I don’t quite understand why this outcome is a disaster, sure it is a big loss for the Armenians but the result is as equitable as it can be. All historically Azeri lands were returned to them, the Armenians who moved there to occupy the lands of the expelled azeris are now leaving in a hurry: I’d just say Karma is a bitch. Aliyev being a dictator does not change a bit of this realization justice which I believe will be the permanent solution in the end.
Kemerd, didn’t the whole issue of “historically Azeri lands” which have mostly Armenians living there start because of the Bolshevik Union balkanizing the lands as such?
Even now the issue is bigger than just Armenians and Azeris since “NATO ally” Turkey, Syrian “moderate rebels,” “Israel,” etc. will continue the same provocations against Ex-Bolshevik Russia that have been going on for years in Syria, Ukraine, and elsewhere. Can a “permanent solution” come out of that alone?
AsiaTimes has another explanation.
Once Azeri forces took the Lachin corridor and controlled the only road from Armenia into Shusha, the city’s fall was certain since without supplies the remaining “army” holding it could not fight.
Part of the reason the road was cut was that a key bridge connecting Armenia to Shusha was knocked out by a precision Israeli missile called LORA (for LOng RAnge). Without the bridge, Armenia could not move supplies or troops in to relieve Shusha, nor could it pull troops out before they were trapped.
Was it just “poor Russian weapons” versus brilliant Israel (LARA) or simple because Armenians didn’t have strategic plan B if that bridge was blown up?
Seems an excellent analysis except for the odd aside about “wokeness”. It should be clear to anyone thinking clearly on the subject that the CIA, MI6, George Soros and for that matter the US foreign policy establishment, whether Republican or Democrat, don’t give a damn about wokeness, racism, or feminism except in the sense that the language of human rights can serve as useful propaganda. The Saker is falling for that propaganda as much in associating them with “wokeness” while opposing it, as the typical culturally liberal European falls for it in associating “the West” with ideas of human rights while supporting them.
Even in the Democratic party’s domestic politics, “wokeness” has two main dimensions, and neither of them is about actually caring in the slightest about minorities or even women (at least, minorities and women who don’t happen to be Democratic party power brokers). The first dimension is to strenuously avoid talking about economic inequality or class. They want the votes of a bunch of people (blacks, hispanic etc) who are in serious economic distress, enforced by several arms of the state. But they don’t want to actually help them, because that distress is the flip side of their rich donors getting richer; the last thing they want is to actually hinder the rich sucking blood from the poor. So they talk the talk of formal antiracism, making it all about social and individual attitudes instead of, say, decent jobs, or housing, or education, or health care, or child care.
The second reason is that lots of actual people, especially youth, are antiracist, pro-LGBTetc, and feminist whether the old Democratic party apparatchiks like it or not. They don’t really care, so they do the classic leader thing: Look which way the sheep are going, and then jump out in front yelling “follow me!”
That’s all that Democratic party “wokeness” is. Biden himself is personally racist, with a history of palling around with old school Republican overt racists like Strom Thurmond, and a legislative record of doing more harm to blacks than perhaps any other US politician on either side of the aisle. But he’s willing to talk antiracist to get black and “woke people” votes without having to actually do anything for black people.
The Republicans incidentally are the flip side of this. They want the votes of a bunch of upset white people, but they don’t actually want to help them because they’re as obsessed with siphoning all the money to the richest as the Democrats are. So they say “Pay no attention to those billionaires behind the curtain, look over there at those blacks and gays and immigrants! Everything gone wrong is all THEIR fault, and the fault of the Democrats for saying nice things about them!” Republicans all het up about wokeness are being suckered as surely as Democrats buying into empty wokeness discourses.
The Saker’s analysis of the failure of the US and the West more broadly founders on the one basic point that he locates the problem in culture (eg gays, girls and God) when in fact it lies in economics. Third world economies are characterized by extreme inequality; that’s what makes them third world economies. The US is gradually becoming a third world economy because its elites, particularly financial, have become more and more powerful and in sucking up all the wealth are turning it into a third world economy. It is NOT becoming a third world economy because of gays or blacks or women or hispanics or some young people with jargon.
But wasn’t Milosevic threatened by Richard Holbrooke that the U.S. would bomb Serbia if he didn’t agree? It is known Holbrooke did meet with Milosevic just before Operation Storm, and a Serbian-American who did a documentary on it said something like Holbrooke forced Milosevic to do it a gunpoint. I first thought he meant literally but he meant some kind of severe threat to Serbia.
I think it was the documentary “Yugoslavia: The Avoidable War” (1999)
It seems that the russians were fed up with the fact that the corrupt Sororite government in Yerevan were selling weapons in large amounts to the jihadist in Northern Syria to attack russian and syrian soldiers:
Also some ministers in the Sororite Yerevan government were famous for burning russian flags in the 2018 protests, so they considered and consider Russia the bigger threat for the country sovereignty more than Azerbaijan or Turkey, even after the Armenian history in 1915 or 1990’s….
On the other hand Pashinyan has denounced that some protesters have robbed him a perfume bottle from his office, so he intend to pusnish them hard.. he clearly does not realise how angry is the armenian population with his management of the crisis.