By Jorge Vilches for the Saker Blog
The war in the Ukraine will be short, not long. Contrary to what today´s Western casino politicians and MSM talking heads tell us to expect, come 2023 — or even before – Europeans will no longer withstand the tremendous burden that their ´Russian sanctions´ bear upon themselves, not Russia. European public opinion has become ever louder and impatient in this respect and EU politicians are getting cold feet without any solution at hand, just babble. No plan, none, no foresight… only incongruent foolish G-7 ideas such as establishing a buyer´s price cap cartel for oil & gas in a seller´s market which will never get to see the light of day. And despite some minor losses, these sanctions will continue to leave the Russian Federation basically unscathed and just collecting ever-larger revenues – due to higher induced prices — for smaller volumes of exports delivered. This benefits Russia in two ways (a) getting paid more by producing less while saving the difference for future sales (b) it allows to finance Russia´s attrition-war strategy forever while Europeans will very soon crawl and beg for a solution to their own unbearable “Russian sanctions”.
NATO knows this. So another possibility is that the necessarily short Ukraine war goes nuclear, be it because there is no other way for NATO to possibly win or because Russia is once again forced to attack due to constantly-repeated large-caliber direct NATO-orchestrated threats. More on both possibilities later, and even a third regarding Europe´s further vassalization and possible rape. Either way, any way – it´s worth repeating – the Ukraine war will be short.
And even the Davos crowd – after dragging its feet for way too long — has finally accepted that the West is now losing and that Russia is winning in all fronts. Be it militarily, geo-politically, strategically, financially, economics or logistics… despite all forecasts and plans made, Russia was better at it and today is obviously defeating NATO all around. True enough, today Russia does not fully control world food supplies nor all of the world´s energy, but in that respect, Russia does hold a “unique, essential and indispensable” role – sounds familiar, doesn´t it? (*) – better than anyone around, surely regarding Europe today, correct? And concerning the control of the very last factor of this essential trifecta, namely money, well it´s definitely a Russian + Chinese + BRICS “work-in-progress” project with a complete 180 degrees re-definition of what “real money” shall be while de-throning today´s be-all and end-all petro-dollar. This would plain do away with SWIFT + Bretton Nothing + the all-American softie jazz such as the Federal Reserve which is as “Federal” as Federal Express and has zero “reserves” of anything, just legions of un-funded liabilities and un-payable debts plus piles of worthless electronic bits and bytes
de-dollarizing the dollar
The world´s de-dollarization process is already underway with direct involvement of BRICS+ countries now including the world´s No.1 crude oil exporter namely Saudi Arabia — per China’s direct invitation and with Russia being No.2 — and with Iran and Argentina´s pending urgent acceptance. This means having yet more oil & gas and yet more food produce on the BRICS+ side of the equation. So raw-power relationships and key leverage parameters are undergoing a very major shift around the world nowadays. And “rapid changes are taking place in the global monetary system that may affect the international role of the dollar” as admonitioned by Jerome Powell himself, no more and no less than the man in charge of the US monetary policy. Another example is that Germany just had its first trade deficit in 30 years as the costs of its imports have soared while foreign sales have dropped for this most export-oriented economy. And future projections are even worse
Xi Jinping – President of China + Vladimir Putin – President of Russia
world-famous ´Benjamin´ en route to oblivion
(*) first paragraph at https://thesaker.is/europe-fails-with-german-help/
Ref #1 https://quotefancy.com/quote/1275693/Henry-Kissinger-Who-controls-the-food-supply-controls-the-people-who-controls-the-energy
Ref #2 https://www.newsweek.com/nato-grows-china-russia-seek-bring-iran-saudi-arabia-fold-1720780
Ref #3 https://www.rt.com/business/558330-germany-trade-deficit/
Ref #4 https://www.rt.com/russia/558384-west-failed-support-confrontation/
Furthermore, many remain silent about specifics of the original NATO plan which was supposedly aimed at Ukraine and Russia as the only affected territories with direct severe impact upon the livelihood of their population. But of course NATO supposedly would not ever prepare a plan to negatively affect the direct visible promoter of the conflict, namely Europe, no ? Yet, the unexpected backlash of the EU-imposed “Russian sanctions” has been instead to seriously affect Europe, and really not so much Russia which, supposedly, was the only target to be impacted. So the West now finds itself — under EU unelected politicians in full charge and command — directly or indirectly self-harming Europe while Russia has its own territory unscathed and still reaping the benefits of the whole nonsense. True enough, Russia has taken some losses, but fundamentally just keeps gradually and relentlessly recovering Ukrainian territories one right after another and collecting ever-higher revenues and also with the Ruble sky high.
For their part, Ukrainians badly lost their territories and livelihoods while Europeans find themselves in a very awkward and unexpected situation which terribly worsens by the hour and with no end in sight. Let´s repeat it: the impact of the supposedly “Russian sanctions” come 2023 – or before — will become unbearable for Europeans, not Russians.
Ref #5 https://www.rt.com/business/558054-germany-russian-gas-cut-costs/ Ref #6 https://www.rt.com/business/558203-nord-stream-to-halt-gas-eu/
Ref #7 www.rt.com/news/558308-macron-russia-anglo-saxon/ Ref #8 www.rt.com/business/558262-germany-downplays-reliance-russian-oil/
Queen Elizabeth II + US President Joe Biden
This unexpected self-inflicted slow-motion demolition of sorts was not what Europe had in mind for itself nor understood to be the price they´ll have to pay for fighting – let alone winning — this NATO provoked Ukraine war. So this begs the question regarding exactly what was then the original plan all about if any. The only probably 100% sure answers are that (a) yes, there was a NATO Anglo-Saxon plan that Europe accepted and (b) we may never know exactly what such plan was. But we can posit our best educated guesstimate with our best objective attitude. And only time may possibly tell how accurate we were. For the time being our only guides are the cui bono and cui nocere principles (´who benefits´ and ´who harms´). Or maybe US President Joe Biden and Queen Elizabeth II could know…
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes” – said Samuel Langhorne Clemens better known as ´Mark Twain´.
The Ukraine war was definitely planned by NATO for many years, probably more than ten. This is no secret as NATO´s top dog Jens Stoltenberg openly admitted to such extent. As the most distinguished and respected University of Chicago scholar Dr. John Mearsheimer has repeatedly proven “…the Western alliance began training the Ukrainian military in 2014, averaging 10,000 trained troops annually over the next eight years regardless of who occupied the White House”. In December 2017, the Trump administration, together with other NATO states, began sending ‘defensive’ weapons to Ukraine, while Kiev took a major role in military exercises held on the Russian border.
Furthermore, all sorts of joint-forces naval drills were held in the Black Sea right next to Russia “ to enhance the interoperability ” which would give Ukraine much of what was already being given to regular paying NATO client states. Yet Ukrainian actor-President Volodymyr Zelenskyy just kept asking for more, and NATO was happy to comply. Only that an often missed reality – even by NATO experts, let alone Ukrainian Zelenskyy — is that the Ukraine is a very large place and supply lines to the self-imposed Eastern fighting front are all over and are always very long and thus vulnerable. As Germany´s Wehrmacht learned the tough way biting the Russian dust during WW2 this is something worth taking into account before, not after hostilities start. So maybe this and other unforgivable mistakes may explain French President Emmanuel Macron´s “brain-dead” description of NATO and his current desire not to “annihilate” Russia as if anybody really could, let alone France. Yet again, it´s impossible to make this stuff up…
At any rate Crimea held a democratic referendum vote with the widespread presence of foreign observers that resulted in 97% approval to rejoin Russia. So, after so many unwarranted Western / Ukraine provocations, and lots of terrible nazi commandos killings of Russian-origin folks — including but not limited to the many “Azov battalions” — at the very least it is quite easy to understand why Russia launched its special military operation in view of so much foreign military and unwarranted provocation. Ref #9 https://www.rt.com/russia/558202-jens-stoltenberg-ukrainian-civil-war/ Ref #10 https://www.rt.com/news/558308-macron-russia-anglo-saxon/
President of France Emmanuel Macron
As a matter of fact, NATO’s first Secretary-General, Lord Ismay, famously noted that the mission of the bloc was “to keep the Russians out, the Germans down, and the Americans in.” So NATO meant a significant full-time US military presence in Europe which undertook a thirty-year program of expansion violating the commitment made to Soviet leaders, leaving Russia weakened. And then the crisis flared up when Ukrainian nazi nationalists began brutalizing the region’s Moscow-leaning majority. Two NATO members, France and Germany, helped perpetuate a fraudulent peace process – namely the Minsk Accords — which former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko recently admitted were nothing more than a sham perpetrated for the purpose of buying time so that NATO could train and equip the Ukrainian military for the purpose of forcibly seizing control of both Donbass and Crimea. As Germany´s Der Spiegel reports, NATO was pressured by the US to wage economic war against Russia. Seriously? Who would have known, no?
Ref #11 https://www.rt.com/russia/558168-nato-defensive-alliance-global-cop/
Ref #12 https://www.rt.com/russia/558321-rus-pivoting-toward-nonwest/ Ref #13 https://www.rt.com/news/558326-spiegel-eu-economic-war/
A plausible explanation – which I am inclined to mostly agree with – is an Anglo-Saxon let´s ´Rape Russia ´ plan (or possibly Europe itself if the “Rape Russia” plan fails…) having the bought-for EU-Ukraine team acting in the forefront despite possibly ending up as the final victim. This Anglo-Saxon plan would aim at 3 different goals, any one of which would satisfy US + UK interests. Of course, achieving more than one goal would mean a highly destructive geo political + financial + economical one-two punch of sorts. Fortunately, the first two goals do not seem achievable, but possible nuclear warfare may change things (more on that later)… or else Europe could be foolish enough not to back down to Russia´s legitimate claims ending up destroyed by sanctions (with Russia unscathed) while the US and UK would later come in and prey on the bargains. That´d be goal No.3, Victoria Nuland´s Anglo-Saxon “fuck the EU “(sic)
Goal No.1 = sanctions + asset theft to harm & isolate Russia from the world economy (90% failed) but also hurt Europe
Goal No.2 = military win in the Ukraine by conventional warfare with regime change in Russia so far 100% failed.
The possible future achievement of goal No. 2 could change dramatically with onset of nuclear warfare.
Goal No.3 = munch popcorn and watch Europe suicide itself by opposing Russia while USA stays put and cheers on.
This goal No. 3 would actually take place thru Russian counter-sanctions impoverishing Europe ASWKI.
This plan had always the US leading from behind (and the UK partnering along) while having full control of the duly and readily bought-for EU and Ukrainian leaders. Goal No.1 sanctions were intended to break down any and all Russian business capabilities to abort Russia´s integration into the EU and world economy pretty much forever so that Russia would not ever more compete with Anglo-Saxon interests – especially in Europe — LNG included. A simple enough example would be the already achieved flow reduction of the North Stream 1 and full shut-down of NS2… or the Druzbha pipeline… or the EU import ban on Russian seaborne oil thus tearing Gerhard Schröder´s strategy of Russian energy vis-á-vis European growth into tiny humiliating pieces. This goal No.1 at the most has been 10% ´achieved´ (more on that later) as it has badly backfired on Europeans while Russia had correctly planned for it and thus rapidly and successfully pivoted to Asia and the BRICS+. So the goal No.1 should be considered as 90% failed with Russia cruising along with European revenues and the Ruble as strong as it cares to be… while Europe weakens to the point of breakdown come 2023. So even “failing” for Russia, be advised that this goal No.1 has self-hurt and vassalized Europe much further and now making it ever more dependable on the US and UK “help” and intervention in its geopolitical decisions. As UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss infamously said “ Geo-politics is baaaaack “
This goal No.2 would mean a EU-Ukraine conventional military triumph over Russia – something truly far-fetched and ´to the last Ukranian´ bleeding and suffering — also triggering a regime change thus leaving Russian assets for pennies on the dollar to buy out and control just like in the old Yeltsin days of yonder. Fortunately, so far zero luck with any such rape of Russian spoils and even with sky-high support for Vladimir Putin´s policies today throughout the Russian Federation. So, if ever achieved, goal No. 2 would mean “let´s rape Russia together”. Thus Europe, the supposed cradle of Western civilization, by actively participating in goal No.2 would have been promptly subdued by its own prostituted leaders and followed the US with possibly suicidal orders while in the pocket of what US President Dwight Eisenhower warned about in his 1961 farewell speech, namely the US “Military – Industrial Complex”. Still, despite the lack of success against Russia, the plan has further vassalized (and self-harmed) Europe now strictly kow-towing the US line in exchange for well stacked off-shore bank accounts for the very usefull services rendered. Be that as it may, per this state of affairs, among many other problems Europeans now — and the rest of the fuel-deficient world for that matter — will have to pay for energy an un-payable price “for as long as it takes” so that ‘the liberal world order can subsist’” per White House economic adviser Brian Deese and also confirmed by US President Joseph Biden Ref #14 https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/feb/07/eu-us-diplomat-victoria-nuland-phonecall-leaked-video
Ref #15 https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/energy/white-house-advisor-tells-cnn-high-gases-prices-necessary-future-liberal
Ref #16 https://www.globalresearch.ca/americas-conquest-of-western-europe-is-europe-doomed-by-vassalage-to-washington/5538471
goal No. 3
If Europeans did not react soon enough and revert course 180 degrees as explained later, Europe would continue vassalized depending ever more upon the US and would continue self-hurting itself with “Russian” sanctions, not Russia. Furthermore, the EU+Ukries team is also losing the conventional military war. So then goal No. 3 would eventually apply when Europe ended up pretty much suiciding itself (as explained below) thus allowing for the US and London to come in and pick up the pieces and keeping it all for peanuts. Goal No. 3 would materialize because Russia is already fed-up of so much unjustified aggression from the EU, just sick and tired of so much nonsense and wasted opportunities during decades of accommodation to European needs. So with or without sanctions, Russia would simply sell ever-lower amounts of oil & gas & food and other strategic commodities to Europe which are not that easy to find elsewhere as Europe needs them regarding quality, quantity, price, type, delivery, etc. This would happen most probably not because Russia wanted to starve and freeze Europe to death, but rather because she would have simply found new and much better export clients elsewhere and with whom to grow together in every sense, most probably BRICS+ Accordingly, Russia would prefer to take better care of such new business, trade and political partners – with different currencies involved, not dollars nor euros — and plain forgetting about “crazy-wicked and agreement un-capable”(sic) US and EU which have thrown all the great Russian opportunities to the waste basket after decades of Russia behaving as an excellent business partner to no avail, just EU-US warmongering in return. Goal No. 3 would then be achieved when Russia as explained above – or for whatever reasons and without firing a single shot — would just impoverish Europe to the point which US and UK investors could step in and buy it out like vulture funds do with sovereign bonds (think Argentina 2001) for pennies on the dollar. This outcome would be welcomed by the US & the UK, of course, the real puppeteers pulling the strings of it all and ready to prey upon an empoverished vassal Europe.
Middle Ages-type massive migrations can eventually get to be a deep-learning experience for all as “Kobold” (gremlin) Annalena Bärbock in all her green glory is about to see as the German Minister for Foreign Affairs. Furthermore, even with supposed ´money´ in their pockets, the European elites will not come out of this disaster smelling like roses. No ´money´ will ever buy food or fuel or heating in these circumstances. The EU leadership is slowly realizing that lots of Russian-sourced produce has no substitute thus forcing them to bet the farm on winning the war with Russia which the US-EU-Ukraine team duly prepared for and thought it would be easy stuff… and it was not. Of course, as Russia has stashed up lots of money already, she could decide to just cut-off both oil & gas to Europe, period. Then goal No.3 would instantly kick in. In essence, it´s a stand-off between Europe´s need of Russian produce versus achieving an apparently impossible Russian regime change real soon. If the latter outcome does not happen, the former rules. Anglo-Saxons would win either way. Ref #17 https://www.rt.com/business/555362-west-russia-oil-explainer/ Ref #18 https://www.rt.com/business/558473-eu-energy-emergency-plan/
Rubles, not dollars nor euros
And Russia now also says “it´s our products so you pay in Rubles, okay ?” Why euros or dollars? You plain rob them anyways, so you propose paying for my produce for nothing? Russia does not need, care to have, or find a use for your payment in dollars or euros which are only your strict nonsense, not ours. This includes oil + nat-gas + LNG + refined products + wheat + everything else Ref #19 https://www.rt.com/business/558232-russia-switches-grain-exports-rubles/
go nuclear ?
The US & UK productive game of yesteryear is over and done, ´Made in USA´ does not exist anymore, the gold-decoupled Bretton Nothing “petro-dollar” standard is in terminal crisis, sanctions backfired, the Ukraine war is being lost, and 75% of the world does not agree with us anymore. So the last resort the US could find was an EU let´s “Rape Russia together” pirating plan – by the way, already tried before — but this time also with Western ´intelligence´ advocating for a change of regime and active “yeltsinization” of Russia so as to buy Russian failed assets for peanuts. So, just pounce on Russia soon and hard enough, ruin Russian business capabilities forever, cut off her trade and finances, etc., etc., and possibly force a regime change, keep on grabbing Russian resources, just steal all that´s left or buy it on the cheap, “yeltsinize” Russia all over again, fraction and balkanize the Russian Federation into smaller weaker Western-manageable portions, etc., etc., and schadenfreude it all the way to the bank…Clear enough?
And if this fails just let Russia impoverish Europe to the point of breakdown and then Anglo-Saxons buy it all for cents
But, wait… what happens if none of these plans come to fruition ? Would the US just bite the bullet ?
It may happen that The Anglo-Saxon Powers That Be do not want to appear as losers, wish to save face, and under a false flag excuse decide to try out Armageddon with a nuclear first-strike strategy against Russia. True enough, in that case, today the Russian Federation’s technologies seem capable of defending properly and even effectively counter-attacking, but the nuclear option could certainly change world scenarios and the possible outcome of Goal No. 2
Clear enough, most US leaders anyway now want war ( any winning war ) with Russia while Russia is trying to avoid war by all means. But the NATO provocations just keep coming relentlessly. So at some point, Russia may also be backed into a corner, and it won’t take long for the battle to go nuclear. And Russian General Andrei Gurulyov does not mince words. “ We will strike London first,” says he per referenced quote below. And even Vladimir Putin himself has not beaten around the bush regarding the Russian Federation now being on “maximum nuclear warfare alert”. And Johnson or Biden or Putin not being in charge would not change anything. It´s national policy in all three countries.
Beware: Russia has clear advantages in this regard, so act accordingly and do not let politicians sell out your future… or your lives. For example, do not let any politician or group of politicians or party lie you into a war which only Congress has the prerogative to declare, not by an Executive Order from Joe Alzheimer´s handlers. Let´s just get angry at the right things and not at each other.
Ref #18 https://usawatchdog.com/paul-craig-roberts-nuke-war-coming-mysterious-deaths-dont-stop-dems-cant-win/
Ref #19 https://www.b92.net/eng/news/world.php?yyyy=2022&mm=07&dd=04&nav_id=114046
Ref #20 https://www.rt.com/russia/558573-belarus-intelligence-war-poland/
In my humble opinion, the only solution for Europe today is
- stop the Russophobia right now and embrace Russia as a business partner
- reverse the current unwarranted course 180 degrees on all fronts Ukraine included
- tell the US + UK warmongering neo-cons to drop dead and go home
- return the money and all assets robbed from Russia
- change your political leadership ASAP, en masse
- elect Herr Gerhard Schröder as Chancellor of Germany and leader of Europe
- accept Russia´s legitimate territorial claims
- accept Asia´s success and the decline of Europe and the Western world at large
- acknowledge multipolarity and fully accept Asia´s legitimate well-earned future role
- drop the Anglo-Saxon Brexitology superiority-complex philosophy
- guarantee Russia´s existential security
- get rid of nazi influence everywhere
- fully comply with the Minsk Accords
- become “agreement-capable” and relate with Russia and China respecting wording and spirit of agreed terms.
- stop the shameful European nonsense now exposed for the world to see.
- THINK strategically, ACCEPT your limited capabilities, and get rid of US + UK influence altogether
If Europe rejects this only effective SOLUTION, then let´s just sit back and watch Europe suffer the inevitable consequences and so be it. Most probably with the US & UK achieving their carefully planned goal No. 3 whereby Europe ends up fully vassalized and raped by Anglo-Saxons while dismissing Russia as a reliable business associate.
Why a “short war” Jorge, where did you get that from ? Answer: from common sense and basic survival economics taking into account the human inbedded thermostat and the consequent hypoglycemic shock.
Everybody says the Ukraine war will be LONG. But from my down-to-earth perspective starving and freezing to death defy some very strict rules of common sense and the deeply claimed Western way of life. And this is bound to happen very soon. Current cheap politicking and armchair analysis stops in its tracks right at the physical limit which “lite” and uncommitted consumer economies will not ever allow to be crossed.
Public opinion accepts pretty much “whatever” as long as the political class does not compromise its livelihood and well-being. Come 2023 — or even before that — the imposed “Russian sanctions” would actually be tremendous unbearable sanctions on EU survival basics. Marshall Winter is coming and without Russian energy, Russian food, and Russian produce at large quite simply the EU cannot survive, period. Please do not beat around the bush about such outcome as many do invoking XYZ. Then it´d be Europeans themselves who would default and surrender making this war SHORT, not anyone else. And that would be the end of the Anglo-Saxon plans and EU-leadership intentions, tactics, supplies, armament, coverage, funding, mercenaries and “Ukrainian cannon fodder” + “assigned roles” and savvy analysis from important political-military gurus. No European support would necessarily and instantly mean the end of the Ukraine war. Russia would win by default as never in its history have Europeans depended so much strictly and from Russian produce that very simply cannot stop coming in, period. It´s survival economics, not fancy geo-political footwork. Last time around it was only French and German armies that suffered famine and freezing. Let´s ask Wehrmacht Grand Field Marshall General von Paulus… or Napoleon himself for that matter. Now it´d be all the 800 million starving and freezing Europeans with massive migrations democratically spread out everywhere. Annalena Bärbock will have some tough explaing to do…
Below is analysis on why the inflation rise in US and also globally.
The demand to use US dollars as global trade have been reduced by 5-10% due to China buying oil with Yuan or euros.
China is the deciding factor can crash the Wall Street and crash the US dollars by cutting their US dollars holdings of $3.1 trillion to $500 billion. This is golden opportunity for China to make free money. But Chinese leaders controlled by Wang Qishan are more stupid than we taught. They do not know how to play the global financial games.
China leaders very stupid and screwed up badly in the past 10 years by spending excessive money to build millions of apartment to create construction jobs. Those 50 million surplus apartments become store of wealth for Chinese people savings which need the next sucker to buy at higher price to be profitable. Too stupid.
Washington and London are leading a crusade against Moscow and Beijing.
What is your take on crashing the Wall Street by China ? Is it doable ?
Hi Jorges, hope all is well with you. In regards to Goal #2, I think you might be overlooking something significant. Even if Putin were to be
removed from his current position it would because he’s not taken a hard enough line with the west. He would be most certainly be replaced with a hardliner towards the west.
For the west it would become a case of “be careful what you wish for”. Thoughts?
Hi TravelAbout, thanks for your kind words + valid input and comments. I agree with your comment & question and tried to approach an answer at the very end in the “go nuclear” paragraph and you can´t get any tougher or “hardliner” than that.
” And Johnson or Biden or Putin not being in charge would not change anything. It´s national policy in all three countries ” This includes Russia, of course. Cordially Jorge
I’m skeptical about the immediate possibility of a nuclear war. The deep state is controlling Joe Biden, not the pentagon, and I have little doubt the pentagon is reticent at the idea of a nuclear war. They would hardly agree to a nuclear attack unless the US are directly threatened. Sure a plethora of retired generals are babbling about crazy ideas in the medias, but they’re not the one in charge of the military. Joe Biden is too compromized to impose anything to the pentagon, even if officially he’s the POTUS.
John Doe, good analysis, and I sure hope you are right.
Still, (1) accidents do happen (2) mis-understandings do take place (recall the Cuban missile crisis and the U-2 spy plane incident) + (3) let´s see if the Anglo-Saxons — UK included — just bite the bullit as they most probably will lose in Ukraine. The UK is a very strong and determined pupeteer. BoJo´s job is up for grabs and Lizz Truss and her war-mongering friends seem to be the strongest candidates (4) the US “deep state” has a life of its own. Nobody even guessed anywhere close that the world would be standing where it is right now and not only on the Ukraine war topic. Gotta go, keep your comments coming John, Cordially Jorge
Never, never, never ever discount the possibility of people, especially people in positions of “power”, doing insane things just because they can, nor should you exclude the possibility that there are people with access to nukes that dream day and night of blood, fire, and death, and are just hoping for the opportunity to make those dreams into reality.
Hostilties towards Russia has been going on for over 10 years. They prepared us for this confrontation, and it worked, young men with zero experience went to the front throwing their life away. With focus on Ukraine you can see that the west has it tentacles wrapped around it. Apparently everything comes from Ukraine. I think their goal was with the Green Deal (abandoning fossil fuels) in mind to break with Russia and all they needed was an oppertunity. It would also mean NATO would integrate Ukraine, cutting trade with Russia and China. Ukraine would have become the EU’s provider of energy, food and source of cheap labour. Many multi nationals already produce or invested in Ukraine. Secondary it would be a step on containing China military. But the whole plan now failed.
In the long run it wil also start to hurt Russia. Their new McDonalds ran out of french fries. This is the problem with countries rich of oil and gas, they export energy but import many things. Russia import many goods and food that it easily could produce itself, land enough, but you need citizens that want to work and start businesses. For some high end industries Russia also depends on others. Their car industry can’t match ours or you can’t create a company as ASML.
The final question is as Russia should use hypersonic weapons to hit a few important decission centers? Several EU countries are committing an act of war. When seizing your property their need to be response.
I think there are enough potatoes in Russia.
Enough potatoes, but not of the right type. Even McDonalds would have had problems due to he lack of the right type of potato. Drop french fries and replace them with potato wedges. Almost any potato can be used for potato wedges.
“Their new McDonalds ran out of french fries.”
It did because their french fries are full of additives Russia doesn’t produce by itself. They still have fries, just tasting different. If anything good riddance, the amount of additives big chains put in junk food is mind boggling.
One thing Russia is good at is adapting and surviving. As for potatoes – a temporary hiccough that can soon be resolved.
Bizarre omission of the root of the problem – $2 QUADRILLION nominal Transatlantic debt outstanding.
As long as this is not dealt, decisively, with, the threat remains.
There is no other way to deal with the ongoing series of NATO pranks, BoJo et al notwithstanding!
Instead of being circus, bread and circus Romans, deal with this!
How? National economies take immediate action on finance – split the banks ala Glass-Steagall, and call for New Bretton woods – what Russia is doing in the EAEU is globally vital!
If that is going nuke for Marc Carney’s Banker friends – ok let’s nuke them do not HAMLET out!
bonbon, thanks for your comments. Regarding my ” bizarre omission ” you mention it is definetly a most important part of the problem which I am sure to have discussed briefly at least — for the sake of space and focus on a different aspect of the same topic — at least 4 times in this one article (please check it out) and many more times at great length in previous articles right here in “The Saker”. Cordially Jorge
There are always the ones looking for the hair in the soup and putting forward their monokausal explanation. A few times, due to these attitudes, I got drawn into unpleasant exchanges here. It’s not worthwhile to react. Besides, I found out for myself that posting is a way to make oneself feel kinda important.
Btw I appreciate your writing.
Tom, thanks guy, much appreciated from my end. I follow you. Mine is a very lonely task but comments like yours make it worthwhile. Cordially Jorge
The policy goals itemized at the end are sound, necessary, and doable. Europe (1) raped by Anglo-Saxons* while (2) dismissing Russia as a reliable business associate is impossible because Europe and Russia are integral. Neocons, MICIMATT oligarchs are trying to tear up that integration so they can, as you say, sweep up EU assets for pennies on the dollar. Anglo-Saxons* can rape Europe — are doing — but not without having to deal with Russians — are doing, and getting their faces punched — who in no way want their European brothers and sisters being raped by Anglo-Saxons.*
I think their — Anglo-Saxons’* — goal is impose the costs of whatever project they fancy on others. Right now they fancy punishing Russians for rejecting the foreign pathogen of Bolshevist (80-95% Ashkenazy Jews) Communism and remerging in their native Orthodox Christianity. In a parallel action, they are punishing Americans for having re-elected Donald Trump to lead their Latin Christian culture.
Anglo-Saxons* are unhappy they are losing territory in Ukraine. Losing lives is nothing to them, as long as it’s not their own. But, territory is all. Land is money. They — includes CIA-USAID — use proxies for their wars because they know USA has neither morale, education, nor industrial base to fight Russia straight up. Probably ditto China. What horrible women.
That lack of morale, education, and industrial base to fight Russia should be an element of your analysis. Many here at The Saker overlook that fact in their calculations, causing them to attribute to US more than US is. Even Martyanov only lately realizes this fact of no US base for waging real war, even as regards to the US National Service Academies, which are now thoroughly CRT and “woke.”
Another key fact overlooked by many here is this: Anglo-Saxons* controlling US-UK government decision-making have no intention of winning any war they commence. This is why they defund police and military and send both off to chase psychobabble as learning and expertise. They want endless wars. For the money and for the chaos, which they can exploit for money. De-dollarization, not Zircon, is the most existentially compelling threat Anglo-Saxons* face.
Anglo-Saxons* will keep the chaos just under the nuclear threshold because nuclear is ruin while chaos is opportunity. They want opportunity — for the money — not ruin. If the Russians defy their plans for Russians, they’ll just wait it out until the Russians make a mistake that presents an opportunity for direct attack or they manage to manufacture one on their own. So they imagine. In any case, the Anglo-Saxons* are not going nuclear. They can’t get richer doing that and they know it.
And remember, dominators need someone to dominate, fighters need someone to fight, fleecers need someone to fleece. The bully needs his victim. The Anglo-Saxon* need The Russian more than The Russian needs The Anglo-Saxon.*
*Who in this essay are deemed “Anglo-Saxons” are actually trans-national Ashkenazy Jews — aka neocons, MICIMATT oligarchs, fascists, Atlanticists, minions of WEF, minions of both Hudson Institute and Brookings Institution, The US Foreign Policy Establishment — controlling US and UK levers of power, or imagining they are. “Anglo-Saxon” is an imprecise designator in the context of this essay.
Excellent summary. I also made the point about Jews really running the show and posted my remark before reading yours.
Brilliant conclusion to your very elaborate and sound series of premises and syllogisms. With the only big if, to wait for whats on the sleeve of bankers (Bonbon) or the anglo-saxons* (The Rev. David R. Graham)…
Thanks Julio !
Excellent piece Jorges, well thought out and argued.
However, I see a slightly different ending. The Anglo-Saxons may well achieve a secondary goal of raping Europe, but what will be left by then. It will a hollowed out subsistence economy. And any major businesses with any sense will already have de-camped to Russia/China thereby enabling themselves to have access to (essentially unlimited) resources, and have a market (BRICS++) which comprises the major part of the worlds population.
cdvision thanks for your encouragement and comment.
What Anglo-Saxons (A-S) would do AFTER raping Europe and making it their own for peanuts is to make an energy & produce & resources supply deal with Russia, or whomever. They´d just get a hold of installed and already built capacity, human resources capabilities and the continental internal market.
A-S just want to win, so if Russia cannot be defeated they´ll rape continental Europe first and make buddies with Russia after that, or with whomever, even Africa… with A-S investments on top… and cater the enlarged BRICS+ market from there. Very cynical shebang, as always.
What you suggest methinkxs is way “too small” a piece of the pie for the A-S philosophy. If A-S forces were to decamp to Russia/China they´d lose all control ! Naaa naaa they want THAT also.
This is the one part of the analysis I am struggling with.
The ‘Perfidious Albion’ element I get. The approach/’plan’ I get.
What I don’t get is the outcome part of the equation. Perhaps I’ve misinterpreted?
The way this comes across is that in terms of the negative impact across what seems reasonable to define as geographical Europe – which is not the same as Political Europe (ie The EU) – the UK (presumably because it is a belligerent on the other side of the equation??) seems to be being presented as not being subject to the same level of negative outcomes as the rest of geographical Europe.
As a result of a number of factors – including but not limited to the UK’s geographical position close to the European market and it’s bodged Brexit – it seems reasonable to anticipate the kind of negative outcomes detailed in the analysis which will impact across (geographical Europe and its markets) will impact equally on the UK.
Going further, it would also seem more than reasonable to surmise that bad as the negative impact will be on the (geographical) European mainland the impact will be even worse within the UK.
Leaving aside the UK’s debt levels there is ample evidence suggesting the UK being even more badly prepared for the fallout than the continental Europeans. Ten months ago, for example, analysis on the absence of sufficient gas storage capacity in Europe going into the 2021/22 winter period was also pointing out storage levels in the UK were in far worse dire straits.
There seems little evidence to suggest matters have improved in the interim. Indeed, by January 2021 (at least six weeks or more before the Russian SMO) growers organisations in the UK were reporting somewhere in the region of 70% of their members had not planted in their acres of poly tunnels due to the price of gas making it uneconomic. That absence of food produce is only now working its way into the food price inflation we are witnessing in the UK.
Martin Jay over at Strategic Culture is currently highlighting an EU suggestion to pay companies to slash production to save energy. Daft as the idea is at least (political) Europe has got as far as realising some kind of plan is necessary. One just cannot see any scenario in which the UK – which is literally run by a lame duck Zombie government whose replacements either inside or outside the Tory Party are even more gung ho about Ukraine and keeping wage rates down – would even get to the point of thinking some plan of action is required.
Short of toeing the UK landmass, lock stock and barrel, to the other side of the Atlantic there seems every prospect of the UK finding itself in a far worse position than those of the European mainland.
But maybe I’m missing something?
Hi Dave, and many thanks for your valuable analysis. After thinking yet more about all your input and questions (!!) I may have additional comments to make… but for the time being and off-the-cuff please allow me to respond
(1) these are just Anglo-Saxon plans, meaning no way anyone — not even themsleves — can be sure of the outcome. Still, one important fact is that EU leaders are betraying Europeans no ? And Europeans do not know it !!
(2) the UK leadership´s idea is that the UK would NOT be prone to as much negative outcomes simply because it is part of the Anglo-Saxon cabal with ´always winner´ US on its side, the Brits side, with dollars, resources, etc etc. per the “special relationship” and both feeling as “indispensable nations” in so many words per NATO´s latest announcements mentioned, in passing, in the article above.[ please see asterisk (*) note ] Today the UK does not depend from Russia in any way (energy, whatever) as much as continental Europe does. The ´always winner´ US would always help the UK, or at least that´s the plan !
(3) Brexit failed miserably, and not only the Tories but also Labour and Lib Dems want and need a “British” way out by winning at “something” although they might end up not winning much or even losing. Non-Tories still accept Brexit and will not rewind it by knocking on the EU door yet again. And for other reasons the EU would reject the UK, so…
(4) The UK — and the City of London — are the financial leaders and also geographically closest to the “Raped Continental Europe” so the UK / London would perform as the “Pirate-in-Chief” close to the spoils.
(5) The EU and Europe and Europeans are divided. The UK has a unified command, the EU does not. The decision-making process (most specially in an emergency situation) is far swifter in the UK, not in the 27-unanimous votes required by the EU.
(6) Financial power + military power is what Anglo-Saxons would base their strategy on (think Rule Brittania) not commodities or resources that they would find elsewhere from third parties… or so they think they would !
(7) If you care to believe them, between Fort Knox and the Bank of England they pretty much vault everybody else´s gold. Please think about that and if all possible please re-read my articles on such topic already published here in “The Saker”.
Dave, as always, you are NOT Missing anything. On the contrary, your provocative yet “healthy” questions and comments are most welcome and allow all of us to think together out loud.
thank you so much for this very well written (and the citations!) article. i’ve been dreading trying to put something together in my unorganized way for the blog i’m taking a break from because it’s impossible to be there right now.
eventually, i want to present them with this. i do care about them, but too many have been hacked by the information war and when i hop over to see if anything’s changed, i see that they just ignore this thing that is consuming too much of my time.
it is so important. thank you so much.
Thank you polarbear4 for your favorable comments and encouragement. I am also glad to see I may have prompted you or possibly helped out in some way to your future contributions to this topic which will be certainly most welcome. Thanks again polarbear4 !
We all look at the world with the focus through our particular set of glasses, and those of our friends and the sources that we read. But what is beyond the reach of that focus may also be of transformative importance. We know that for over half a century, since WWII, separate power centers controlled regions of business and money. (many centuries before too) A smaller country benefited most by playing both sides. That leaves a long history of fence straddlers, “where will my losses be minimized”. Which way should I tip? Who can blame them for their “real-politic”? Whenever I hear “BRICS”, I don’t bet the farm on Brazil, India or South Africa. More reliable will be countries that are already under heavy sanctions, like Iran, Venezuela, even Cuba, with or without much global power.
Then we talk about Vassals with an air of disgust. Where’s your sovereignty, where’s your self respect? But we have to acknowledge that both Germany and Japan are occupied countries for 3 generations. Even South Korea, and the rest of Europe are occupied. That is not just militarily or with NATO. All of their institution and education are loaded with the 5th column. By now they do not even know what hit them. Sure, they realize most all official decisions are counter productive. What can they really do about it (besides nothing)?
A). When studying populations, it is very useful to classify “system people” and “anti-system people”. Of course it is not that everyone is one way, but it is an overall average that has enormous momentum to drag everyone in. System people create, (from within the system), anti-system people destroy what’s here. They have given up on present structures and prefer to rebuild from sticks and stones. They don’t really think about it, and since they are anti-system people, they will never rebuild anything anyway.
For example, to me it looks like Ukraine is a country built on Hate (of the external). Of course not everybody hates, but I think that in ALL OF OUR COUNTRIES the population has been hijacked by a leadership bent on certain paradigms. They most often work for outcomes that are counterproductive to the population. They speak the opposite of course.
Also the 3 Baltic’s and Poland, are built on hate, and they honor only hate for Russia and the outsider. If you don’t follow our lead, then we will hate you also. This is the anti-system.
B). Russia is turning out to be built on Love (for their own motherland), and not necessarily hate for the other. That Russia does not hate the other is proven by equitable treatment for the 100 minorities living in their country. Today the Russian “good luck” is that the enemy has been classified as NAZI. This snaps the Russian mentality back 80 years to a very Passionate and Unified state. Europe, or the west can never re-manufacture this sort of passion, with all their $billions in the MSM. Europeans can be classified as “Harmonious”, very risk averse, and very divided as to how to achieve it. The outcome of this conflict is already decided, right there.
I think for a large part, all of western Europe is built on the “Harmony of Indifference”. Just leave me be, and let me live my satisfying life. (Based on whatever advantages I have accumulated.)
C). More and more of the world is turning toward anti-system. I can give many superficial reasons and examples, but really I don’t know why? Maybe it is some kind of cycle. Not a cycle like the planets or the gods are controlling the advancing of the ages, but a cycle from the momentum-of-dissatisfaction, that overshoots what is useful. It is due to the oppression of all domestic populations. It is also a belief in the confrontational, and in the use of force for all solutions. It is puzzling that Ukraine is losing so many soldiers and so much equipment, but still is begging for more. You can say that true losses are controversial, but the conflict is moving so fast that we will know everything in short order.
I am carefully studying the progress of the war, because there is a lot to be learned there. Russia rarely or never assaults head on against the heavy fortifications. So the high Russian losses claimed by western media must be completely false. Russia takes the small villages on both sides of main troop concentrations, and then pushes lightly to close the loop. Finally Ukraine has to decide to fall back, not to be surrounded, and these retreating columns are devastated with long range artillery on their way out. So there are really limited face to face clashes, except in the small villages. If they are already shelled to rubble there is no place to hide, and the defenders fall back from there also.
It is not totally Ukraine’s fault because nobody fights against these dismal odds unless they have “an uncle”, or uncles in the background. Read Germany, Europe, but of course mostly the US, and the UK even forbids peace. (We’ll see now that Boris Johnson is out, but the UK is always confrontational, above their weight.) So all of the western world is turning anti-system. Their main idea about sanctions is that “we can withstand suffering from them better than you can”. But it is turning out to be quite the opposite, (big time).
D). The west hasn’t appreciated how fragile supply chains are. They have been so efficient with just-in-time raw material delivery and no excess inventories, that the slightest shock stops everything, including food. Russia is more old fashioned, with enormous factory floors, large inventories of sub-assemblies, and they can double production overnight, or quickly. In the west it takes years to reconfigure the system. The same with ammunition for war, Russia can produce more and more, while the west is running out, and resupply is years out.
In the west it is all self-inflicted damage, done just so they can get their proxy, the Ukraine, into NATO and have bases, stocks of military supplies, and Nukes on the Russian border. Who has this interest, only billionaires, right? Will they ever renounce this plan? They will de facto have to, when Ukraine no longer exists.
E). If inflation continues, the European Central bank will collapse. Banks are built on the capital of their bond holdings. The stock market is secondary. If their bonds yield 3%, (less too, since interest rates have been near zero for almost a decade), and if inflation is at 10%, then those bonds are yielding negative 7%. In this case the bonds will be traded at a massive discount, maybe even minus 40% from their par value. Will the banks survive if their capital is cut by 40%? Or even 30%? The alternative investment could even be zero yield commodities. Zero % is way better than minus 7%.
The ECB does not have the tools to cope with this. Have you heard the proposed solution of the oligarchs? It’s to crash the Euro and and crash the banks, and instate a new centralized crypto currency. There is only one small flaw in this plan.
F). America is not going to allow the US banks to be destroyed. So the FED has raised interest rates by 75 basis points just in June. (Usually it goes only by 25 basis points at a time.) Look for more raises during this year, since Powell says he will “do what it takes” to curb inflation. This kind of inflation is not altered much by interest rate changes, so it is more of a “double-speak”. Therefore, he has an open door to keep on raising rates. The disparity in a higher interest rate and the present bond holdings will also damage American banks, through heavy discounting of their capital base. But in this case, since Europe has no tools to cope with it, there will to be a massive capital flight from Europe and into American banks, which will save them. The European banking system will be sacrificed and go down to zero. Can the EU exist without a financial structure?
Unless the FED stops raising interest rates, this sacrifice is a sure thing. Do you think American billionaires are allies with Europe? Soon you will learn who your true enemies are. The Euro will be no more, and the EU will break in half, if not disintegrate totally. The populations will suffer massively without a functioning banking system.
(I just had this crazy idea: What will Europe do without the Euro? They will adopt the US Dollar. They want a one world government, anyway, it might as well be in Washington. This will save the dollar, and the FED will be glad to print up a new batch for the EU. Ha)
G). I think that the only way to save Europe is to cut inflation immediately, which will protect the ECB bonds. The swiftest way to do that is to drop all sanctions against Russia and turn on the taps to flood Europe with Russian gas and energy. (In spite of America.) Things will normalize with Russia very fast, and Nato will undoubtedly be cut back and eventually disbanded. It will happen anyway, with the destruction of the EU, why not do it before a European collapse? You may believe that alternative energy can be found. But all petroleum is not the same, and cannot be readily substituted one for another. By then it will be too late anyway. The dirty deal is done.
Since Europe is an Anti-System, dropping Russian sanctions will never happen.
H). The European populations have confused and counterproductive attitudes and beliefs. Is this critical mass of negativity what will trouble and destroy Europe? It will certainly trouble alright, but the destruction is other, and it is assured. Everybody is not in the same boat. For now, only Europe will sink.
Do Europeans ”deserve” to drown because, they chose those stupid ideas? Do they have to live (and die) with their own state of consciousness? Looking at some people’s comments, it seems that this is the foundation of their arguments. It is one way to look at it, perhaps very harsh. It is a great place to question: Is that True? I would conjecture that the majority of people do not hold those ideas.
But they hold other ideas that are just as damaging, that of: “this too will pass”, (some way we’ll muddle through it), or “go-with-the-flow”, don’t rock the boat. They are counting on the assumption that they are really “allies” with America. Europeans can be classified as “Harmonious”, just let me exist like yesterday, which I found satisfying. But they were prohibited from resolving any of the gross problems of yesterday, and now those problems have mushroomed. Is it too late?
Europe must have outgrown their usefulness to the US. So now America denies them affordable gas and energy, and if what I said occurs, the US will crash their banks. Can Germany pry themselves out from the occupation?? It’s a big risk, and Germans seem to be very much risk averse. Above I called them harmonious. So hang in there, and it will all work out?? Or otherwise just be outraged, and lash out to the outside in every direction.
ANTI-SYSTEM WILL GROW.
Global Advances, this is an excellent paragraph of yours.
“(D). The west hasn’t appreciated how fragile supply chains are. They have been so efficient with just-in-time raw material delivery and no excess inventories, that the slightest shock stops everything, including food. ” Europeans will pay very dearly for this, I agree.
Thanks for your input Global Advances. Cordially, Jorge
The proposed solutions are bold & clear except the Minisk Accords, which obviously is found at the graveyard.
Habtamu Abay, they can always refresh the topic, bring it up and effectivey approve it and comply with the wording and the spirit, can´t they ? I mean it´d be a full 180 reversal, and it still can be done. At least I say it is not impossible. Cordially Jorge
Habtamu Abay, still you are correct and I was wrong.The Minsk Accords, as agreed but not complied with, today are obsolete because of the physical boundaries. I actually hasten to add the point on the “Minsk Agreements” at the very end — amongst the other (random) ´sixteen points´ — as a last-minute add-on to make it “better” and “complete”. NOT the case. You are 100% right, that was a mistake I made.
But just to defend my case, what I replied before is still valid in that they can always refresh the topic and comply with the wording and the spirit beyond the physical borders which would need to be re-considered. It´s be as an admission of their full 180 reversal, and it still can be done. It´d be agreement upon the “Minsk Accords No.2” no ? Cordially Jorge
Your all forgetting Hillary. She was meant to get in 2016.
None of your solutions will come to pass. The only possible solution for Europe is the violent overthrow of the current political order. I’m not advocating it, I’m just being honest about it.
JJHW, point well taken. So much so that I specifically agreed by saying the following at the very end
QUOTE – ” If Europe rejects this only effective SOLUTION, then let´s just sit back and watch Europe suffer the inevitable consequences and so be it. Most probably with the US & UK achieving their carefully planned goal No. 3 whereby Europe ends up fully vassalized and raped by Anglo-Saxons while dismissing Russia as a reliable business associate.- UNQUOTE
Here is your new leader
we chose him just for you
the other guy is gonna die
and we’ve arranged a coup
our good and faithful minions
share all of our opinions
so if you want to live
here’s what yer gonna do
Arrest our competition
and buy our submarines
and force your population
to submit to our vaccines
just do as you are told
don’t make us use the stick
for we can be quite ruthless
when we want to be a prick.
Psycho Suzerain will kill
any obstacle at will
with a sniper or a drone
in a crowd or all alone
Uncle Sam gets his man
From Haiti to Iran
look what happened to Japan
Brilliant poem! Will make it my fb status!
Russia does surely not need to import potatoes, maybe machinery to slice them.
Russia is a vast country spanning 11 time zones and sitting atop 1/4 to 1/3 of the world’s resources…..real stuff like oil, gold, uranium, nat gas, trees, soil, the arctic, potash, etc etc. In the early 1990s the globo-homo-schlomos had these resources within their grasp when they parachuted in Jeffie Sachs and his IMF boys who administered some crony capitalist shock therapy and installed a chit system to distribute the vast resources. Guess which ethnic group ended up with most the chits? Russia is potentially the wealthiest country on the planet based on per capita resources……if they can hold on to them and withstand the preset assault by the globo-homo-schlomos.
The empire of lies is padlling back fast! Here are the signs-
1. BoJo capitulated.
2. Canada waiving sanction to return Russian gas compressors.
3. 24/7 coverage of Ukrainian war discontinued by many newspapers including the guardian.
4. UN opening blaming Ukranians for using human shields and exonerating Russian armed forces in an incident on elderly home attack.
5. Rapid firing of Ukrainian ambassdors by Zelensky.
The Longest War
July 7, 2022
The Kremlin, Moscow
( excerpt of speech by
President Vladimir Putin )
“But here is what I would you (sic) like to make clear.”
“They should have realised that they would lose from the very beginning of our special military operation, because this operation also means the beginning of a radical breakdown of the US-style world order.”
“This is the beginning of the transition from liberal-globalist American egocentrism to a truly multipolar world based not on self-serving rules made up by someone for their own needs, behind which there is nothing but striving for hegemony, not on hypocritical double standards, but on international law and the genuine sovereignty of nations and civilisations, on their will to live their historical destiny, with their own values and traditions, and to align cooperation on the basis of democracy, justice and equality.”
“Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield. Well, what can I say? Let them try. We have already heard a lot about the West wanting to fight us ”to the last Ukrainian.“ This is a tragedy for the Ukrainian people, but that seems to be where it is going.”
📍”But everyone should know that, by and large, we have not started anything in earnest yet.”
📍”Everyone should understand that this process cannot be stopped. The course of history is inexorable, and the collective West’s attempts to impose its new world order on the rest of the world are doomed.”
The last two paragraphs speak to “the beginning of the transition from liberal-globalist American egocentrism to a truly multipolar world” and Ukraine is just the beginning as “we have not started anything in earnest yet.”
This is going to a long war, and I don’t mean Ukraine. The change to a new multipolar world will be a long process as evident by Putin’s own words.
What has been set in motion cannot be stopped.
And Putin doesn’t bluff.
@ Colin Miller on July 10, 2022 · at 10:23 pm EST/EDT
This is going to a long war, and I don’t mean Ukraine. The change to a new multipolar world will be a long process as evident by Putin’s own words.
I agree with you a hundred percent.
However, I refuse to set time-limits to the conflict. Your quotes from Putin encapsulates the breadth and depth of the historical juncture we are moving through, and there is nothing short in time about his perspective. I believe the “war is going to be short” thesis the author proposes, is a European view, and is limited by his own definition to the effects of the war in Europe’s population.
Putin’s historical horizon has no concerns about short-term Europe freezing or dying of famine. He’s very clear he has started a revolution, one that has no time-limits assigned. We are clear the war is not going to be short, as straightjacketed by the author’s limited perspective, IMHO. However, we don’t know how long is going to be, we only know, by Putin’s own definition, is not going to be a short war.
The balance between that dichotomy is that the war is going to last as long as necessary for Russia to achieve her objectives.
Semantics matter regarding time limits. Sure enough I agree with the idea that a formal peace settlement may take very long… or even never come such as in Korea. And yes, it´ll go beyond Ukraine of course as I also do not believe in The End of World History either. As you rightly point out, Putin has made it clear that this is a revolution just starting.
But I firmly believe that the current shooting hot war in Ukraine will be short, Russia winning by European default come 2023. And such an event does not need any official “Peace Treaty” or settlement. Ukraine will cease fire for lack of support or else to be run down by Russian forces wherever Russia decides to call it its territory. Cordially Jorge
Lone Wolf #2
In sum, backfiring EU sanctions on Russia will be the reason for Europe to abandon the shooting battlefield thus ending the war even if Ukraine and the US still go for it but won´t get very far without EU support.
Thus Europe will abandon its support of Ukraine with funding, weapons, training, mercenaries, etc. precisely because of the counter-productive effect of EU sanctions on EUROPEANS not on Russia. Actually to say that is an euphemism. It wouldn´t be “counter-productive” it´d actually be fully negative no oil, no nat-gas, no food freezing and starving to death. So Europeans would demand to stop support for Ukraine and demand to revert sanctions on Russia and embrace Russia as a trading partner. In that sense, it´d be a short war. Formally, diplomatically, it may never actually end. Cordially Jorge
I would say that rather than “Anglo-Saxon” leadership, though, what we have in the USA is a country ruled by a cabal of mostly Jewish, intellectuals, industrialists, media moguls, government apparatchiks, and academicians pushing us toward war with Russia, along with a lot of other insane policies, and until that changes it really doesn’t matter who is in the White House, dementia-addled or not.
I also don’t think the nuclear option would be likely to be used because the pharisees that rule us don’t want to be incinerated themselves…though i suppose they may be crazy enough to think thy can “rid it out” given enough warning and a deep enough bunker.
Thanks jon, I appreciate your favorable comments and valid input. Re the “Anglo-Saxon” term, internationally it could also come to mean “US + UK”. I would also add Michael Hudson´s F.I.R.E sector. Cordially Jorge
USUK! I don’t mean you. I mean the name is appropriate for those pirates of the Caribbean and of everywhere else. A tiny percentage of the world population sucking up a big fraction of the products. USUKisrael: that’s all it does!
Don’t disagree with anything here, however perhaps an overreliance on too many RT links gives the impression that it simply regurgitates a Russian media source.
Oganic, point well taken that can be corrected if I had TIME but I’m a one man band here with a shoe string government pensión budget !!!! Cordially Jorge
Well funnily enough RT is a much more trustworthy source than western MSMs. The true Russia propaganda is mostly on Sputnik; I sometimes read it for entertainement value.
Organic, John Doe,
What also happens is that not only is “Russia Today” trustworthy, but by far it´s also the fastest ! RT is always first on these Ukraine-related news. Many times a day or two later other sources just follow the same news and, if all possible, I also quote them. But it does take lots of time I do not always have precisely when needed. Cordially Jorge
THIS is a diplomat – a statesman – thinking and acting based on realities. And knowing when to negotiate.
But we only have madmen “leading” the West. Right into global depression or worse. There are SO MANY options available as Mr. Vilches points out but it’s going to take Europeans in the streets and storming the capitals, I guess.
Hey Brussels? Did you see the Colombo video?
Scott Ritter on Russia tv – Ukraine Russia War Update. Nato vs Russia. Exclusive interview.
Clean install, that is, to borrow from digital. Above or below all of this – these 3 and all other possible scenarios – there is an opportunity for a clean install of a new operating system.
System imagined by such as Bill Gates and Big Pharma; the WHO, Pfizweew, Wellcome and GSK, all the King’s men and Davos. We had a short glimpse of it during last couple of years, a dress rehearsal for segregating digital identity and denial of service for incompatible people. Yes, people were interned in special camps.
What does it take to make such an install? War for sure. Hunger, cold, disease, loss of all hope in humanity? But it should be noted that Commonwealth colonies were in the forefront of implementing such a system over their own subjects.
Thank you for this thought provoking article.
The war in the Ukraine will be short, not long.
I agree heartily with your assessment.
Europeans — unlike Afghans, Yemenis or the poor in the Global South, — in the main so used to the good life, ‘la dolce vita’ if you like, won’t take the ever increasing burden caused by the boomerang sanctions for long and will demand changes. At the start of the year, prior to the SMO, when tensions between RF and the Ukraine were building up, I ventured to say that it is not inconceivable that prosperous central and western Europe could see the UNHCR in action on its territory dealing with European IDPs and refugees. That has now come to pass. I also said that Europe could see reverse migration ie Europeans fleeing the continent. That has not materialised (yet) but from your comment on the charming Annalena Baerbock I guess that you’re thinking along the same lines.
A third scenario, one resembling what is unfolding in Sri Lanka presently, is another distinct probability if Europe’s ‘leaders’ don’t change tack, and quickly. Smug Europeans of course are wont to dismiss the possibility of the SL scenario seeing that they’re not Sri Lankans, are highly evolved socially, and living in ‘highly developed’ and ‘civilised’ societies — despite the French experience with the Yellow Vests — and will not revert into being savages. But that remains to be seen. The higher you are, the harder the fall. Many moons ago I was involved in disaster preparedness (flavour-of-the-day term, HDR) and the definition of ‘disaster’ we used then was ‘a major disruption of the social pattern of individuals and groups.’ Civil disorder is of course a man-made disaster, the causes of which are many, including hunger and anger. There is no doubt in my mind that following the present trajectory, a disaster is about to be visited upon Europeans in the coming months.
I’m not particularly keen on popcorn (or burgers) so I’ll reread Raspe’s ‘Baron Munchausen’ in the meantime.
Stand Easy, if mine was ” a thought provoking article ” as you say I have fully satisfied my objective. So many thanks for saying it. Cordially Jorge
Vilches analysis seems plausible—there is a possibly over-optimistic suggestion that the amerikans will concede to reason. I do not perceive that they ever have. the historian Daniel Boorstin wrote, “amerikans live in a thicket of illusions; they demand illusions about themselves”. Sanctions and misery is all US offers; they believe this to be effective. both Vico and Macciavelli perceived that “gold never wins a war”; so far they believe differently despite Korea, Vietnam, Taliban, etc.
the ukraine military 700,000 initially managed to take advantage of tactical errors; this has been corrected. how much ukie territory must be liberated, how much infrastructure demolished before USA will surrender?
yuri, Thanks for your input, but I can´t quite follow you mentioning a ” possibly over-optimistic suggestion that the amerikans will concede to reason”. I never suggested that, did I ? Please quote me if all possible. It´s the EUROPEANS that have to concede to reason for their own good. As far as the Anglo-Saxons go, they just want to win, either in Russia or — if not possible — in Europe re goal No. 3 per explanation above.
I fully agree with you yuri in that “the amerikan PTB ” have not ever conceded to anything. They always demand. So we agree and I never intended to suggest anything onthe contrary. Cordiall Jorge
The goal of The Free World (BRICS+ & others) is not an anglosaxsons win in Europe. On the contrary – free Europe is better solution for all of us.
I agree with you, if anything in Europe we’ll end subordinated to the chineses. They have been buying our assets for years already, I don’t see why they’d pass such opportunity to go further. Fine by me, at least China is pragmatic, they won’t throw us into imperialistic adventures.
All that stupid posturing against China in Brussels won’t survive the EU dislocation.
My goodness things are happening fast, except the SMO. Which has very fast missiles, yet ambles along taking prisoners.
I had a buddy who was born in Holland during the war, he grew to hate Nazis. He had lot’s of good reasons. Now suddenly it’s in the Western fashion to Love Nazis? And so many other perverse twisted ideas. Seems the Dutch are not so disposed to follow fashion. Even now.
His name was Harry. He was a forward artillery observer during Korea. One day an officer with a visitor came into Harry’s post. The officer took the radio and called in a strike. When Harry realized he was calling in friendly fire on his own troops, he grabbed the com set and yelled cease fire!
From then on that officer tried to get him killed. Finally Occifer got transferred out and his replacement gave Harry two new stripes that he had long since earned. Where we worked Harry was a balancer of turbine engine assemblies. Precise, meticulous. Strong as an ox. He still hated Nazis.
Oh by the way seems to me Jorge may be right that this will be short. It’s an outrageous call that no one else seems to have made. I also hope Reverend Graham is right about the Nukes.
frankly, I agree with you when saying that mine is a ” call that no one else seems to have made “. True enough, I do read LOTS on this subject, and I have not read or heard anybody else saying the same. So yet again, I am all alone… seems to be my destiny no ? Cordially Jorge
Seems an integral part of the bigger agenda, this feeling alone thing. That is the beauty of this site. Like a sub in the desert as the Saker talks about. Out of our element, but really we all have friends, lot’s of them. The propaganda screams otherwise.
All the aces the Empire has pulled out of it’s sleeve have been the wrong card and now desperation looms. I say we offer them amnesty. Some beach front retirement for the ones who act quickly, along with an ankle bracelet, 24 hour guards and zero access to their power levers, never mind full forfeiture of their booty.
Some of these mafia deals are not really a choice at all, put in the same situation what would we do? Take the money or die, ok times up, what’s your decision?
It is remarkable that the involuntary wit of Mrs. Baerbock regarding the KOBOLD (=Gremlin) instead of the COBALT (the chemical element) in the batteries of the electric cars has found its way to the Anglosphere. One can conclude that you all have a really complete picture of how stupid the “election” for the current German Foreign Minister was.
WolodjasFreund, yes, the German electorate impacts very poorly. Let´s hope they react favorably to their own mistakes. Cordially Jorge
” When sanctions backfire: The EU doesn’t have a plan for life without cheap Russia energy ”
Nor a plan of anything methinkxs. Europe needs Rusian energy, food, and tons of other stuff cheaply and readily available from reliable supplier next-door neighbor Russia. Funny finding my title elsewhere though, and it´s not the first time. More on that later.
No time now, gotta rush, dentist appointment ! Please understand, I´m a one-band band here running on a very modest government pension shoestring budget. All alone, no help at all (trust me), nothing. Still, I´ll be back later for sure, of course. This is home to me. Cordially Jorge
Great reading.. about the threat of Nuclear War? I believe that horse is already out of the barn; it just might not be exactly what we expect. It’s a more likely and dangerous possibility now since the development of ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons. Some apparently presenting such a low radiation footprint as to be passed off as or mistaken for large conventional explosions. Some smart people believe the huge Beirut explosion was an Israeli new generation tactical nuclear weapon. Perhaps already tested in Syria. The crater and devastation can’t be otherwise explained from the facts on the ground. And weakened Lebanon cannot now resist Israeli theft of their oil and gas fields. The point being if these weapons exist they could be deployed against eastern Ukraine, Russian forces or Russia at any time. Thanks.
Thanks for your comments SoTexGuy ! Cordially Jorge
60% of Europeans UN-willing to pay the Ukraine war price
CONGRATULATIONS editors Andrei & Amarynth + commentariati at large.
This article has been RE-published by The Automatic Earth and The Debt Rattle at
Thanks for another great article, Jorge!
Re “This goal No. 3 would actually take place thru Russian counter-sanctions impoverishing Europe ASWKI.”
According to Michael Hudson, this has been the plan—maybe the main plan—all along
Binds Europe self-destructively closer and tighter to the US in vassalage.
BTW, what dos ASWKI stand for?
Thanks for your favorable comment Taffy !!
Also thanks for the info re Michael Hudson
BTW, ASWKI = ASWeKnowIt… or … as we know it !!!
Maybe I should have specified: “the main plan with the NATO war on Russia, using Ukraine.”
The text below is from a different Hudson essay—ot the one actually titled that the Europe is the real target of US sanctions against Russia, and the Ukraine war that justifies them. But he touches most of the bases. The whole essay is here:
“. . . The first U.S. aim is to deter Europe and Japan from seeking a more prosperous future to lie in closer trade and investment ties with Eurasia and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO, a more helpful way of thinking about the global fracture from the BRICS). To keep Europe and Japan as satellite economies, U.S. diplomats are insisting on a new economic Berlin Wall of sanctions to block trade between East and West.
For many decades U.S. diplomacy has meddled in European and Japanese internal politics, sponsoring pro-neoliberal officials into government leadership. These officials feel that their destiny (and also their personal political fortunes) is closely allied with U.S. leadership. Meanwhile, European politics has now become basically NATO politics run by the United States. . . .
“So the effect of U.S. sanctions and military opposition to Russia has been to impose a political and economic Iron Curtain locking in Europe to dependency on the United States, while driving Russia together with China instead of prying them apart. Meanwhile, the cost of European sanctions against Russian oil and food – much to the benefit of U.S. LNG gas suppliers and agricultural exporters – threatens to create long-term European opposition to U.S. unipolar global strategy. A new “Ami go home” movement is likely to develop.
“But for Europe, the damage already has been done, and neither Russia nor China are likely to trust that European government officials can withstand the bribery and personal pressure brought to bear by U.S. interference.
“ Here in Germany I’m listening to the new Minister for Economy, Mr Robert Habeck from the Green Party, who talks about activating the federal “emergency gas” and asks the Emirates for resources (this “deal” seems to be failed already, news say). We see the end of North Stream II and huge dependency for Berlin and Brussels on Russian resources. How this will all sum up?
“In effect, U.S. officials have asked Germany to commit economic suicide and bring on a depression, higher consumer prices and lower living standards. German chemical companies have already begun to shut down their fertilizer production, given Germany’s acceptance of trade and financial sanctions that prevent it from buying Russian gas (the raw material for most fertilizer). And German car companies are suffering from supply cut-offs.
“These European economic shortages are a huge benefit to the United States, which is making enormous profits on more expensive oil (which is controlled largely by U.S. companies, followed by British and French oil companies). Europe’s replenishment of the arms that it donated to Ukraine also is a boon to the U.S. military-industrial complex, whose profits are soaring.
“But the United States is not recycling these economic gains to Europe, which is looking like the big loser.
“Arab oil producers already have rejected U.S. demands that they charge less for their oil. They look to be windfall gainers from the NATO attack on the Ukraine proxy battlefield.
“It seems unlikely that Germany can simply give back to Russia Nord Stream 2 and the Gazprom affiliates that have conducted trade with Germany. Trust has been broken. And Russia is afraid to accept payments by European banks since the theft of $300 billion of its foreign reserves. Europe is no longer economically safe for Russia.
“The question is just how soon Russia will simply stop supplying Europe altogether.
“It looks like Europe is becoming an appendage of the U.S. economy, in effect bearing the fiscal burden of America’s Cold War 2.0, with no political representation in the United States. The logical solution is for Europe to join the United States politically, giving up its governments but at least getting a few Europeans in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.
(3.) Which role does the a) New Cold War and the b) neoliberal finance capitalism play in the current war between Russia and Ukraine? According to your recent research.
The US/NATO war in Ukraine is the first battle in what looks like a 20-year attempt to isolate the Dollar Area West from Eurasia and the Global South. U.S. politicians promise to keep the Ukraine war going indefinitely, hoping that this may become Russia’s “new Afghanistan.” But this tactic now looks like it may threaten to be America’s own Afghanistan. It is a proxy war, whose effect is to lock in Europe’s dependency on the United States as a client oligarchy with the euro as a satellite currency to the dollar.
U.S. diplomacy tried to disable Russia in three major ways. First, isolating it financially by blocking it from SWIFT bank clearing, system. Russia responded by smoothly moving over to China’s bank-clearing system.
The second tactic was to seizing Russian deposits in U.S. banks and holdings of U.S. financial securities. Russia responded by picking up U.S. and European investments in Russia on the cheap as the West dumped them.
The third tactic was to block NATO members from trading with Russia. The effect has been that Russian imports from the West have declined, while its exports of oil, gas and food are soaring. That has raised the ruble’s exchange rate instead of hurting it. And as sanctions block Russia’s imports from the West, President Putin has announced that his government will invest heavily in import substitution. The effect will be a permanent loss of Russian markets for European suppliers and exporters.
Meanwhile, the Trump tariffs against European exports to the United States remain in place, leaving European industry with shrinking business opportunities. The European Central Bank may continue to buy European stocks and bonds to protect the wealth of the One Percent, but if anything will cut back on domestic social spending so as to comply with the 3% limit of budget deficits that the eurozone has imposed on itself.
In the medium and long run, the US/NATO sanctions are therefore aimed mainly against Europe. And Europeans don’t even seem to see that they are the primary victims of this new U.S. economic war for self-serving energy, food and financial dominance.
(4.) In Germany the stopped energy project Nord Stream II is still a big political issue. In your recent online article “The Dollar Devours the Euro” you wrote: “It is now clear that today’s escalation of the New Cold War was planned over a year ago. America’s plan to block Nord Stream 2 was really part of its strategy to block Western Europe (“NATO”) from seeking prosperity by mutual trade and investment with China and Russia.” Could you explain this to our readers?
What you characterize as “blocking Nord Stream 2” is really a Buy-American policy. The United States has persuaded Europe not to buy in the lowest-price market, but to pay as much as seven times more for its gas from U.S. LNG suppliers, and to spend a reported $5 billion on expanding port capacity – that will not even be available for year and years.
This threatens a very uncomfortable interregnum for Germany and other European countries following U.S. dictates. Basically, national parliaments are now subservient to NATO, whose policies are run from Washington.
One price that Europe will pay, as noted above, is declining exchange rate against the U.S. dollar. European investors are likely to move their savings and investments out of Europe to the United States in order maximize their capital gains and simply avoid price declines for their stocks and bonds as measured in dollars.
(5.) Prof. Hudson, let’s take a look at further developments in Germany. In May the German parliament – Bundestag – passed a new bill: German lawmakers approved possible expropriation of energy companies. This could enable the Berlin government to put energy companies under trusteeship if they can no longer fulfil their tasks and if the security of supply is at risk. According to REUTERS, the renewed law – which still needs to pass the upper house of parliament – could be applied for the first time if no solution is found on the ownership of the PCK Refinery oil refinery in Schwedt/Oder (East Germany), which is majority-owned by Russian state-owned Rosneft.
It looks like Europe and America will confiscate Russian investments in their countries, and sell off (or have Russia confiscate) NATO-country investments in Russia. This means a de-linking of the Russian economy from the West, and a closer linking with China – which looks like the next economy to be sanctioned by NATO as it becomes an Eastern Pacific Treaty Organization involving Europe in this confrontation in the China Sea.
I would be surprised if Russia resumes selling oil and gas to Europe without being reimbursed for what Europe (and also the United States) has seized. This demand would help bring European pressure on the United States to give back the $300 billion in foreign reserves that it has grabbed.
But even after such a give-back and reparations settlement, trade seems unlikely to be resumed. A phase change has occurred, a change in consciousness as to how the world is splitting up under U.S. diplomatic attacks on allies and adversaries alike.
My question would be: Socialism is a big topic in your new book. What’s your view on those “socialist” measures taken now by a capitalist country like Germany?
A century ago, the “final stage” of industrial capitalism was expected to be socialism. There were many different kinds of socialism: State socialism, Marxian socialism, Christian socialism, anarchist socialism, libertarian socialism. But what occurred after World War I was the antithesis of socialism. It was finance capitalism and a militarized Finance capitalism.
The common denominator of all socialist movements, from the right to the left of the political spectrum, was stronger government infrastructure spending. The transition to socialism was being led (in the United States and Germany) by industrial capitalism itself, seeking to minimize the cost of living (and hence the basic living wage) and the cost of doing business by government investment in basic infrastructure, whose services were to be provided freely, or at least at subsidized prices.
That aim would prevent basic services from becoming opportunities for monopoly rent. The antithesis was the Thatcher-neoliberal doctrine of privatization. Governments turned over public utilities to private investors. Companies were bought on credit, adding interest and other financial charges to profits and payments to management. The result has been to turn neoliberal Europe and America into high-cost economies unable to compete in production prices with countries pursuing socialist polities instead of financialized neoliberalism.
This opposition in economic systems is the key to understanding today’s world global fracture.
(6.) Especially Russian oil and gas are in the focus right now. Moscow demands payments in Rouble only and is expanding their field of buyers filling it with China, India or Saudi-Arabia. But it seems Western buyers can still pay in Euro or US Dollar. What is your take on this ongoing war on resources? The Rouble appears to be a winner.
The rouble certainly is rising. But this does not make Russia a “winner” if its economy is disrupted by the sanctions blocking its own imports needed for its supply chains to operate smoothly.
Russia will end up the winner if it can mount an industrial import-substitution program, and re-create public infrastructure to replace what has been privatized under U.S. direction by the Harvard Boys in the 1990s.
Do we see the end of the petro-dollar and a rise of a new financial architecture in the East accompanied by a strengthening of BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)?
There will still be petrodollars, but also a variety of currency-area blocs as the world de-dollarizes its international trade and investment arrangements. In late May, Foreign Secretary Lavrov said that Saudi Arabia and Argentina want to join BRICS. As Pepe Escobar recently noted, BRICS+ may expand to include MERCOSUR and
the South African Development Community (SADC)
These arrangements probably will call for a non-U.S. alternative to the IMF to create credit and provide a vehicle for official foreign-exchange reserves for the non-NATO countries. The IMF will still survive to impose austerity on U.S. satellite countries while subsidizing capital flight from Global South countries and creating SDRs to finance U.S. military spending abroad.
Summer 2022 will be a testing ground as Global South countries suffer a balance-of-payments crisis from the rising oil and food deficits alongside the higher domestic-currency costs of carrying their foreign dollar debts. The IMF may offer new SDRs for them to pay US dollar bondholders to keep the illusion of solvency going. But the SCO countries can offer oil and food – IF countries give assurances of repaying credit by repudiating their dollar debts to the West.
This financial diplomacy promises to introduce “interesting times.”
(7.) In your recent interview with Michael Welch (“Accidental Crisis?”) you have a specific analysis on the current events in Ukraine/Russia: ”The war isn’t against Russia. The war isn’t against Ukraine. The war is against Europe and Germany.” Could you please elaborate on that?
As I explained above, the U.S. trade and financial sanctions are locking in Germany to dependency on U.S. exports of LNG, and purchases of US military arms to upgrade NATO into the de facto European Governing Authority.
The effect is to destroy any European hopes for mutual trade and investment gains with Russia. It is being turned into the junior partner (very junior) in its new trade and investment relations with the increasingly protectionist and nationalistic United States.
(8.) The real problem for the United States seems to be this: “The only way of maintaining prosperity if you can’t create it at home is to get it from abroad.” What is Washington’s strategy?
My book Super Imperialism has explained how, for the past 50 years, ever since the United States went off gold in August 1971, the U.S. Treasury Bill standard has given the United States a free ride at foreign expense. Foreign central banks have recycled their dollar inflow resulting from the U.S. balance-of-payments deficit into loans to the U.S. Treasury – that is, to buy U.S. Treasury securities to hold their savings. This arrangement has enabled the United States to undertake foreign military spending for its nearly 800 military bases around Eurasia without having to depreciate the dollar or tax its own citizens. The cost has been borne by countries whose central banks have built up their dollar loans to the U.S. Treasury.
But now that it has become unsafe for countries to hold dollar-denominated U.S. bank deposits or government securities or investments if they “threaten” to defend their own economic interests or if their policies diverge from those dictated by U.S. diplomats, how can America continue to get a free ride?
In fact, how can it import basic materials from Russia to fill parts of its industrial and economic supply chain that is being broken down by the sanctions?
That is the challenge for U.S. foreign policy. One way or another, it aims to tax Europe and make other countries into economic satellites. The exploitation may not be as blatant as the U.S. grabbing of Venezuelan, Afghan and Russian official reserves. It is likely to involve undercutting foreign self-sufficiency to force other countries into economic dependency on the United States, so that the U.S. can threaten these countries with disruptive sanctions if they seek to put their own national interests over what U.S. diplomats want them to do.
(9.) How will all this affect Western Europe’s (Germany / France / Italy) balance of payments and hence the euro’s exchange rate against the dollar? And why do you think the European Union is on a path to become the new “Panama, Puerto Rico and Liberia”?
The euro already is a satellite currency to the United States. Its member countries cannot run domestic budget deficits to cope with the coming inflationary depression resulting from the U.S.-sponsored sanctions and resulting Global Fracture.
The key is turning out to be a military dependency. This is “cost sharing” for the U.S. sponsored Cold War 2.0. That cost sharing is what has led U.S. diplomats to realize that they need to control domestic European politics to prevent its populations and businesses from acting in their own interests. Their economic squeeze is “collateral damage” to today’s New Cold War.
(10.) A philosopher from Switzerland wrote a critical essay in mid of March for the German socialist newspaper „Neues Deutschland“, a former news outlet for the GDR government. Ms Tove Soiland criticized the international Left for current behaviours regarding Ukraine crisis and covid management. The Left, she says, is too much pro authoritarian government/state – and thereby copying methods of the traditional right-wing parties. Do you share this view? Or is it too harsh?
How would you answer this question, esp. regarding the thesis in your new book: “… the alternative path is broadly mixed-economy industrial capitalism leading to socialism …”.
The State Department and CIA’s “mighty Wurlitzer” has focused on gaining control of Europe’s Social Democratic and Labour parties, anticipating that the great threat to U.S.-centered finance capitalism will be socialism. That has included the “green” parties, to the point where their pretence of opposing global warming is shown to be hypocritical in light of the vast carbon footprint and pollution of the NATO military warfare in Ukraine and related air force and naval exercises. You can’t be pro-environment and pro-war at the same time!
This has left the right-wing nationalist parties less influenced by U.S. political meddling. That is where the opposition to NATO is coming from, as in France and Hungary.
And in the United States itself, the only votes against the new $30 billion contribution to military spending against Russia came from Republicans. The entire “left wing” Democratic Party “squad” voted for the war spending.
The Social Democratic parties are basically bourgeois parties whose supporters have hopes of rising into the rentier class, or at least becoming stock and bond investors in miniature. The result is that neoliberalism has been led by Tony Blair in Britain and his counterparts in other countries. I discuss this political alignment in The Destiny of Civilization.
U.S. propagandists call governments that keep natural monopolies as public utilities “autocratic.” To be “democratic” means to let U.S. firms by control of these commanding heights, being “free” of government regulation and taxation of finance capital. So “left” and “right,” “democracy” and “autocracy,” have become an Orwellian Doublespeak vocabulary sponsored by America’s oligarchy (which it euphemizes as “democracy”).
(11.) Could the war in Ukraine be a landmark to show a new geopolitical map in the world? Or is the neoliberal New World Order on its rise? How do you see it?
As I explained in your Question #1, the world is being split into two parts. The conflict is not merely national by the West against the East, but is a conflict of economic systems: predatory finance capitalism against industrial socialism aiming at self-sufficiency for Eurasia and the SCO.
The non-aligned countries were not able to “go it alone” in the 1970s because they lacked a critical mass to produce their own food, energy and raw materials. But now that the United States has de-industrialized its own economy and outsourced its production to Asia, these countries have an option not to remain dependent of U.S. Dollar Diplomacy. . . .”
Yes, the USA has wrecked its industrial base. That really got going under Clinton. Like the cancellatoin of Glass-Steagall. A lot of people forget that most of our current problems originated dluring Bill Clinton’s administration. Including the massive concentration of communications interests via endless mergers and buyouts and sellout and sellins. But I guess that is off-topic. Except it does partly explain why the MSM are complete castrati .
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Knowledge farming, thus, could be considered as an additional modern way of farming. But instead of crops, the modern farmers farm for knowledge, the food for the mind. In so doing, knowledge farming would complete the cycle of production and distribution of mankind’s basic necessities of clothing, food, housing and transportation by automating the processes.
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Re the ‘sixteen points’ at the end – the Minsk Agreement is now obsolete and completely irrelevant.
There may be a new Ukranian Territorial Settlement, but it will be well to the west of Donbass.
Jams O´Donnell, you are correct, you make for an excellent proof reader copy editor !
The “Minsk Agreements” point amongst the (random) ´sixteen points´ at the very end was a last-minute add-on to make it “better” and “complete”. NOT the case. You are 100% right, that was a mistake I made. Thank you for your kind correction Jams ! …( wish I had you here to review my drafts before turning my submissions in for approval !…) Take care Jams. Cordially Jorge
Russian diesel for Brazil´s BRICS…
The two sides are lining up pretty fast and clearly.
At this rate there won´t be enough left for Europe even if they do lift the sanctions on Russian distillates
“A plausible explanation – which I am inclined to mostly agree with – is an Anglo-Saxon let´s ´Rape Russia ´ plan (or possibly Europe itself if the “Rape Russia” plan fails…)”
Nope, the plan is Khazarian Banksters. Born of Satanic Narcissism in a universe ruled by God. Unrealistic and unsustainable.
Operations and tactics towards the plan come from diversified layers of Khazarian and goyim fluffers who are anxious to maintain their generous renumerations. And like all whores devoid of principles there is a severe limit to their operational capabilities. As for the sheeple, the base to be shorn of their energy, smart phones and the internet seem to be waking quite a few of them up.
I think that our author is rather overestimating things: the obvious goal of the USA government (and the military-industrial-congressional complex) in Ukraine is *not* victory, especially not a quick victory, because if Ukraine won quickly the Russian Federation could recover quickly. The goals might be either
* A very long stalemate with constant fighting, for decades if necessary, constantly bleeding the budget and population of the Russian Federation.
* A fairly long RF occupation of most of Ukraine, and then a very long “freedom fighter” war, for decades if necessary.
The goal either way must be a quagmire, not a quick military victory.
The USA government can afford to finance either options: they have been able to afford 20 years of occupation of Afghanistan and over 10 years of occupation of Iraq, just because they could, and supplying and funding the ukrainian (or polish) military is much cheaper than the USA military.
As to regime change in the Russian Federation this is just early months; if Ukraine becomes a long term quagmire things may evolve, and after all Putin is already nearly 70, even if he seems in good shape. Give it 5-10 years. It took from 1991 to 2014 for the USA elites to “yeltsinize” Ukraine, and they kept going at it, year after year, following a line that Z. Brzezinsky (and before him J. Pilsudski) described decades ago.
The USA government play to their advantages and always choose if possible proxy wars of attrition, and/or embargoes and blockades. The latter is less effective with the Russian Federation because it is an exporter of the fundamentals (fuel and cereals), but sustaining decades of a proxy war of attrition is something quite difficult for a state much poorer and smaller than the USA or the EU.
As to the EU, in part their vassalage to the USA government is not a choice; but no EU governments wants to become the target of USA government sanctions or “regime change” operations, and the EU upper-middle and upper-classes really love to be “protected” from socialism by the USA, and that the costs of neoliberalism are paid entirely by the lower classes.
I still think that the Russian Federation government has a realistic view of the situation, and that they understand the dangers of a stalemate or quagmire situation, and they will try hard to avoid trouble. Also I am sure they don’t underestimate the pro-USA upper-middle and upper class either, but that’s the main strategic weakness they have.
Blissex, you say
QUOTE – ” I think that our author is rather overestimating things: the obvious goal of the USA government (and the military-industrial-congressional complex) in Ukraine is *not* victory, especially not a quick victory, because if Ukraine won quickly the Russian Federation could recover quickly. The goals might be either… ” UNQUOTE
Blissex, I may be right or wrong, or somewhat right or somewhat wrong, whatever. But with all due respect, my thesis does not try to second guess what the USA goal might or might not be but rather what will necessarily SOON happen throughout Europe — all highly negative stuff — because of the enormous negative impact of the EU “Russian sanctions” which will make this Ukraine war necessarily short. You venture, and I listen carefully, to what the USA goals might or might not be… while I say it doesn´t matter simply because Europe will freeze and starve to death with massive internal migrations waaaay before any US agency or military unit or think tank has time to react.
The US military-industrial-congressional complex you mention may afford AABBCC or want XXYYZZ and strongly strive for it but the immediate impact of what´s coming to Europe in weeks time will rule the game, not them. I say that Russia will rapidly win by European default, period. No fuels, no power, no energy, no food, no medicines, empty shelves, infighting, winter cold ask Napoleon or Field Marshall General von Paulus loser of the Caucasus for that matter. Everything else is immaterial, it does not matter unless the Ukraine war goes nuclear as I have clearly explained in the article.
Unless the gloriously exceptional oh so ingenious USofA has mastered climate control (last time I checked they had not…) then no matter how much cheaper…” supplying and funding the Ukrainian (or Polish) military is than the USA military… ” etc etc which you mention as possible the game would still be over. It does not matter. Throughout Europe bloody freezing cold, no food, clear nuff ?
No “…sustaining decades of a proxy war of attrition…” will ever take place because of the EU “Russian sanctions” packagae No. 7 is already in the works as I will be shortly reporting upon in a new post. The ” quick military victory ” you mention as not desirable to US interests (who cares ?) will not be military, it will be civilian. Frozen, starving civilians (think Angela Merkel´s immigrants) roaming about streets with pitchforks storming the EU Parliament facilities in Brussels, Strasbourg, Paris, Berlin, Rome, etc. etc. etc. If Putin would plain be “not active” any more, many others will follow the same Russian state policies long-and-well established way and beyond Vladimir Putin.
And as for the possibility of regime change in the Russian Federation the EU-Western forces better hurry up because come autumn it´d be game over and as of now they are losing badly in every front be it militarily, geo-politically, strategically, financially, economics or logistics… despite all forecasts and plans made by the US-UK strategic planners and ´experts´ Russia was better at it and today is obviously defeating NATO all around.
The Anglo zionists, NATO, and the EU have not placed all their eggs in one basket, in regards to raping and destroying Russia. They are firmly embedded in the Governments and Comprador populations of thee former Soviet -Stans, you name it and they own them. The Kazakhstan “coup détat” was just to get rid of the Nazarbayev family positions on power. The new strong man is averse to Russia, and his govt. hold speople similar to Tyagnibok and Farion in Ukraine. The pogroms against Russians continue. The other Stans are being torn apart internally by the Combined West and the Middle Kingdom. It is about the same thing, minerals and Energy, and the scarce riches that those populations produce. In the mean time, Russia depends on their manpower, as the Russian Post 90´s generations has not decided whether they are Russian or Western. A large number of well educated professionals ran away en masse at the start of the SVO. Another large factor is the novo ottoman sultan, who treacherously paces around the Russian bear as any good hyena would do. The muslim card, wahabbis, can be played once more against Russia from the Stans, including Afghanistan. Russia has not done enough to create strong alliances in the Turkoman populations, the alliances appear good and nice,functional in paper, but in the bazaars and villages the reality is different.
This cavalier attitude of “munch the popcorn” while Europeans are having a serious hurt coming is just plain wrong.
Atreides, I see your point and maybe such sentence was mis-worded in which case you´d be correct and I´d be wrong. Sorry for that. The idea was that in all their traditional cynism the Anglo-Saxon planners / aggressors would “munch popcorn” not anyone else and definetly not us as observers and denouncers of their despicable and wrongfull behavior. I´d think that the rest of article makes that clear. Also, such Goal No.3 was part of THEIR plan… QUOTE – “This Anglo-Saxon plan would aim at 3 different goals, any one of which would satisfy US + UK interests.UN-QUOTE. As a reminder, the sentence being questioned went “Goal No.3: munch popcorn and watch Europe suicide itself by opposing Russia while USA stays put and cheers on”.
“Munching popcorn” is just an extended metaphor.
I think Jorge’s point, if I may restate it, is that the USA is very cavalier about staying well back in the theater as if they were watching a movie while munching their movie popcorn (which is typical behavior in USA movie theaters ,or was, when we still went to the movies en masse), while the actual “players” are real people and nations who are fighting, bleeding, freezing, dying.
So, when you read any mention of popcorn, understand that it is an extended metaphor.
It is not a putdown of any kind on the hapless victims who provide the “show.”
Thanks Taffy, you explained it much better than myself !
Very good article. I go with what’s behind door #3. We, the US, are parasites. We don’t have the fortitude to beat Russia(probably not even the ability). We will cannibalize Europe. We learned this from our masters, (see Balfour declaration). Okay federal banking is a major problem, but no less is corporatism. That absolute relentless pursuit of profit is an animal that devours everything even itself. We Don’t Produce Anything. Our only export is usury. It’s like being shipwrecked on an island with nothing to eat and cutting off your own leg for food. We are living here in America in an advanced stage of “flight of the lemmings”… Very good article.
Russell thank you and I´m glad you enjoyed the article !
Please keep your feedback coming !
Not sure why this article is entirely sidestepping the obvious — the whole entire point of NATO entering Ukraine (together with the European economic fiascos, vassalizations, etc…) is to simply manufacture all sorts of various crises (shortages of food, energy, etc… blamed on Russia) to ultimately unleash greater totalitarian government control (aka NWO) of the world (as the “solution”).
You guys should understand by now NATO is not really in Ukraine to actually “win” anything — it’s **supposed** to be a “long” war so the Western elite can still
1) Have a long-term reliable source of laundering money under the guise of “national security”
2) Manufacture crises that can be conveniently blamed on foreign powers (even if most folks disagree with the propaganda), all to ultimately *expand* government power and bring on totalitarian / dictatorship power for said elite.
3) As a side goal maybe also throw some turds at Russia (and whoever else) for not playing into a “Western-led” nwo.
It seems these goals were earlier supposed to be advanced by the covid program — i.e., “for public health” — but it looks like that ended up scrapped for the Ukraine effort — i.e., “for national security” (apparently the elite figured out they could throw more turds at Russia if they don’t lock their own nations down).
Anyway, other folks have already commented on the need for violent revolutions and overthrows. Unfortunately, it seems placing one’s hopes in BRICS currently appears to be the more “reliable” option instead…
I read you and ask you: what would happen to all of your hypotheses herein if this war were SHORT ? Because from the very first sentence onwards, even in bold fonts, this article posits that for the reasons explained this will be a SHORT war not much fuerther than, say, March 2023. What would happen then from your perspective ? Would all of your ponts hold ? Cordially Jorge
You mean like if the laws of physics were somehow broken? People can easily imagine all sorts of fantasy “What If?” scenarios, but ultimately we live in the real world.
None of the “reasons” you suggested that this war is to be “short” are really applicable here, IMO. The “economic meltdowns” of Europe mean absolutely nothing — the “elites” in government can just ignore them (they aren’t commoners to suffer under them) and, if anything, those European nations can simply devolve into martial law (like various places around the world did during covid lockdowns) and become bigger more totalitarian dictatorships (under the fake guise of “protecting democracy”). At the end of the day, all that the common folk can do is only peacefully protest and hope for the best — all while just getting mowed and taken down by their respective governments. Not unlike what happened during the covid lockdowns either — except this time in the name of “national security”, less so “public health”. Likewise, the same is true with the decline of the dollar worldwide (de-dollarization) and within the US as well. The US population will end up just dealing with more inflation and more manufactured crises while the federal government will end up asserting more totalitarian control over the country and its production as the “solution”.
So, ultimately, there is no real “incentive”, at least on the NATO-side, to make this a “short” war — especially also as a convenient scheme to launder more money, blame “others” ie Russia on the inflation and crises that arise as a result, and finally expand government power as the “solution”.
Of course, if Russia somehow ends up “shortly” conquering all of Ukraine’s territory, then… well, then sure the politicians might have to come up with else (perhaps a new covid “variant” ?) besides a “Ukraine war effort” to accomplish these goals, seeing as how maybe “the Ukraine-ship would have already sailed” (as the saying goes). Thus you could then could say, for that matter, “the Ukraine war has ended ‘shortly'”.
But, I would also consider such a “quick conquering” to be highly unlikely as well — after all, I’m sure everyone here always hears those incessant MSM news articles and reports about some “new high-tech military XYZ armaments and/or training going to help Ukraine”. And so likewise, I wouldn’t be surprised if eventually NATO starts sending over actual troops and battalions to Ukraine in a real full-on war against the Russians as well. So, while Russia has been gaining quite some territory as of now (about 15% of Ukraine excluding Crimea from February through July 2022), more significant military aid (include NATO battalions for a larger-scale conflict) will likely turn the Ukraine war effort into a much longer-lasting military quagmire. Just because NATO won’t do this with Russia now currently owning a paltry 15% does not mean it’s not on the horizon.