by Andrei for the Saker blog
Well, we heard that, what, 10’000 times already? Probably.
But is this a reason to simply ignore yet another tsunami of hysterics coming out of Kiev?
I mean, I get it: North Stream 2 has been completed today, all that’s left is a bunch of paperwork (which the Poles and Ukies are still trying to sabotage by offering to “participate” in the bureaucratic processes). Barring any last-minute “creative solutions” by the 3B+PU gang, the gas itself should start flowing on October first. And since the “Turkish stream” is already working, it is true that Russia has successfully bypassed all the crazies and is now offering its energy to Europe directly.
As for the “West” and its values, well, let’s just say that greed is far more sacred to the West than its own propaganda. How do we know that? Nobody offered the Ukies any “compensation” or, even less so, “security guarantees”.
The US/NATO/UK/EU have clearly shown that while they love to act like the infamous “civilized” “White Man” with his famous “burden”, they have no stomach for screwing around with Russia for real, not in the Black Sea, not in the Ukraine, not in the Baltic and not in the North or anywhere else.
In other words, the Ukronazis feel ditched and are watching the events in Afghanistan in utter horror.
Also, since the Ukronazis always said that Russia will attack the Ukraine as soon as NS2 is completed, so in a way, there is a logic here: since NS2 was completed today, therefore Russia must attack today. Especially since the Zapad 2021 military maneuvers have started (and they are involving a bigger and much more capable military force than the entire military power of the 3B+PU countries).
In the Ukie logic, this all means that Russia will attack today or tomorrow at the latest, from both Belarus and Russia. BTW – Lukashenko was in Moscow yesterday and the two countries signed 28 documents further integrating Russia and Belarus economically and militarily. As for political integration, Putin and Lukashenko both said that first, the two countries must align their economies before going into stuff like a single currency or even a single Parliament. So that is for the (not too far away) future.
Then there are the various statements from top Ukro officials.
Zelenskii declared that a war is now inevitable. He also stated that the Ukronazi armed forces were now amongst the most formidable on the planet and that NATO would “lose” without the Ukraine and the EU would become very weak (he was not joking).
The head of the Ukronazi Security Council, Danilov, not only agreed, but he said that if the Ukies see an impending Russian attack, the Ukies would attack first and “liberate” the Donbass. He got a standing ovation from the Ukronazi corner.
The head of the Ukrainian military admitted that he daydreamed about, listen to this, a Ukrainian military parade on the Red Square in Moscow, with Ukie flags and all (that old Polish wet dream again…).
Remember the other “NATO candidate” Saakashvili who lost a war against a small Russian military force in 3 days only? He now declared that if Russia attacks the Ukraine, all the US would send, at best, is warm blankets and inflatable boats. He is right. Welcome to reality Ukies!
As for the official Ukie media (all non-regime-run TV channels have now been banned), let’s just say that they “further amplified” the feelings of Ukie politicians and leave it at that.
Foreign Minister Lavrov reacted to all that by saying that the folks in Kiev were “schizophrenics”. Peskov also spoke of mental problems.
So, will we have a full-scale war in Europe today or tomorrow?
Probably not. HOWEVER
First, never say never, especially when dealing with schizophrenics. Normal deterrence theory assumes what is called “a rational actor” on all sides. The one thing which the Ukronazis sure ain’t is “rational”!
Second, you have to stop thinking like you normally do and imagine yourself in, say, Ze’s skin. Objectively, for them, a continuation of, well, maybe not “peace”, that has not happened since the Ukronazi coup, but at least “low simmering” war might well be WORSE than a full-scale war with Russia. The kind of “non-full-war” which the Nazi-occupied Ukraine has been (barely) surviving is a surefire way to a final, total, collapse. Not only that, but Ze & Co. probably do realize that even if Russia does openly intervene, it would at most be to liberate the rest of the Donbass and probably move towards the Mariupol direction. Sure, the Russians would probably do to the Ukies something similar to what they did to Saakashvili and basically defang the Ukraine, but remember that in 08.08.08 the Russians were already advancing on Tbilisi and stopped not because the “invincible Georgian army” stopped the invader, but because the Russians have ZERO need for anything Georgian once their fangs have been removed, least of all any need to enter their capital. In fact, the Russians quickly packed and left, leaving just enough forces in South Ossetia and Abkhazia to make darn sure that they would never be attacked again. This is most likely what the Russians would do in case of a war with the Ukraine, only at a larger scale. But now think like Ze: Saakashvili himself is not in power, but he is alive, got plenty of money and basically is living a good life (in their minds, at least). He did not get lynched by angry Georgians (who did put him on an international wanted list for many of his crimes). Ze would much rather be the future Saakashvili than the future Mussolini, and that goes for a lot of them. Sure, the Ukronazi true believers will all be killed by Russians, but the top folks will do what ex-President Ashraf Ghani did and pack their money and run.
Third, dumb and desperate (D&D) rulers always see war as a solution to get the flag-waving kind to blindly support them. I vividly remember how Argentinian General and dictator Galtieri pulled off exactly that with his ill-fated liberation of the Malvinas/Falklands from the Brits (which, of course, I support 110% on principle, but the execution was nothing short of terrible, by the fault of Argentinian politicians and Galtieri himself (and the local commander too, Mario Menendez). And that is a trick which every President except Trump pulled at least once while in office (and he basically also did that with the murder of Soleimani which was an act of war).
The Neocons still seem to be dreaming of attacking somebody, anybody, but following the monumental faceplant in Afghanistan, there are very few nations out there that the US can seriously take on (Monaco? Liechtenstein? Costa Rica [which has no military to begin with]? Grenada (no military either, but lots of very bad and even traumatic memories for the US])? Not the Vatican, the ceremonial Swiss guard might do what it did during the insurrection of 1792 and declare “We are Swiss, the Swiss do not part with their arms but with their lives. We think that we do not merit such an insult. If the regiment is no longer wanted, let it be legally discharged. But we will not leave our post, nor will we let our arms be taken from us.” (Yes, tiny Switzerland had a proud and very interesting history, and she only became the Empire’s cheap prostitute in 1990). And today’s Swiss guards at the Vatican could change their (rather silly) ceremonial uniforms, put on real fatigues and fight to the end. I don’t see these genius super-warriors taking them on :-)
So – war later today or tomorrow?
No, probably not.
But the fact is that the Ukies simply have no other choice than to try all they can to trigger a war sooner or later (but preferably sooner). For these Nazi schizophrenics war is, REALLY, preferable to peace. Remember for all the butthurt crazies on other websites who were going into hysterics every time I spoke of “Nazis” in the Ukie context, the fact remains that while Ze initially came to power as a total NON-Nazi (while Poroshenko’s gang was “the real deal”), the fact that Ze is, literally, a clown and has no real power base other than the pro-peace Ukrainians whom he totally betrayed, resulted into the Ukie Nazis taking de facto control of the Ze regime.
Just like the Neocons are a minority in the USA, but one which sets the agenda no matter who is in power in the White House, so are the Ukronazis: a minority, but one which sets the agenda. And “their” Ukraine is, truly, an anti-Russia, something which Putin publicly declared a “red line” which Russia will never allow.
See any venues for compromise here?
Finally, a war would allow the Ukronazis to “consolidate” their power in the western regions of the (historically real) “Ukraine” which Russians will certainly stay away from (Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk, etc.). Most of the locals *truly* are non-Russians and have never been Russians in the past. The Ukronazi ideology is still popular there, so the Ukronazis can create their little and landlocked “Nazi Taiwan” and give up a country they cannot control, if only because it is entirely artificial, and accept a smaller country, but once which makes more sense and which they can control.
So “something” is definitely coming. It might be a stupid stunt like trying to pass under the bridge to Crimea or some major terrorist attack (that is the one thing which the SBU is actually pretty darn good at, we should not dismiss them too quickly!). Or this, the Ukies are regularly flying all types of drones over the Donbass and even over Crimea. What if they sent a manned aircraft of some kind? It will be shot down for sure (even over the LDNR). They can also set off a false flag very very easily (just like the Czechs recently did): blow up some major civilian infrastructure object which the cannot be maintained (no money, all the specialists gone) anyway and blame it on Putin and, of course, “Petrov and Boshirov”.
I think of that as a “home made MH-17” (the initial one was clearly a US operation like KAL007 many years ago).
We cannot predict what “it” will be, but we can be sure that will be 1) very visible 2) very ugly 3) very bloody.
Yes, the Russians are as ready as can one can be. But the Ukies will have the advantage of choosing the time and place. This means that the SVR/GRU must now carry the burden of making darn sure that the Ukronazis authorities are chock full with SVR/GRU agents and even officers: it is vital for Russia to make sure that the Kremlin gets any such Ukie plans even before they are finalized in Kiev. Удачи вам, ребята! (good luck guys!).
A few days ago I read an article in the national interest. It is from A. Wess Mitchell a former Assistant Secretary of State.
The level of delusion in this article is astonishing. The author describes what the US needs to do to avoid a war with both Russia and China simultaneously. The main strategy described in the article is a russian military defeat in the ukraine.
I have to admit that I scratched my head many times reading that thing.
I put here an extract from the long article.
“America needs Russia’s fear of China to mature on a faster timeline than China’s aspirations for meeting key military capability targets vis-à-vis the United States can be realized. The paradox is that it is Russia’s deepening dependence on China that will increase Russian fear and fuel its need for strategic alternatives. The dilemma facing the Kremlin will be whether to continue to abet China’s rise and risk becoming a sidecar to Beijing’s ambitions or to seek to counterbalance its power.
Within this paradox lies an opportunity for the United States. The goal of our diplomacy toward Russia—and the crux of our strategy for avoiding a two-front war—should be to sharpen Russia’s dilemma and ensure that, as its fear of China ripens, it has viable options for a foreign policy other than aggression toward the West. Such an approach would not operate on the premise that the United States can court or woo Russia into a conciliatory stance. To the contrary, its premise would be that to the extent that any reduction in tensions with Russia is still possible, it will be because Russia’s leaders decide on the basis of a cold-blooded read of their own interests that détente with the West meets Russia’s security needs better than their present, aggressive policies do.
The more Russia sees the path of westward expansion blocked and the more it sees practical alternatives to Chinese dominance in the east, the less it will be at odds with our fundamental interests and the more it will be at odds with China. In this sense, the late Zbigniew Brzezinski had it backwards: we shouldn’t want Russia to become more Western in its geopolitical vocation; we should want it to become more Eastern.
OF COURSE, it is not in America’s power to choose an eastern path for Russia. What is within our power is to shape the incentives for Russia to make this choice for itself. In practical terms, that would require the United States to form a coherent—but in effect bifurcated—Russia policy, with one plank focused on Russia-in-Europe and the other, largely distinct plank focused on Russia-in-Asia. The leitmotif of the Russia-in-Europe policy should be adamantine resistance to Russian expansion culminating in a decisive defeat for Russia’s present aims in Europe’s borderlands. If history is any indication, Russia only takes détente with an adversary seriously after it has been forced to do so by a defeat or serious setback. This was as much a precondition for Ronald Reagan’s success at Reykjavík after the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan as it was for the English statesmen who brokered the Anglo-Russian entente after Russia’s defeat at Port Arthur in 1905. Attempts to reach détente before Russia has suffered such a setback are nonly likely to fail.
The equivalent of Port Arthur or Afghanistan today is Ukraine. The United States should wish to see Russia suffer a military rebuff of sufficient magnitude to prompt its leaders to reassess their assumptions about the permissiveness of the post-Soviet space as a preferred zone of strategic expansion. America can help bring about this outcome much as it did in Afghanistan: by providing locals the means to better resist Russia at higher volumes than it has done to date and encouraging European allies to do the same. And we should significantly raise the costs for cyber and other attacks on the United States, including via reciprocal attacks on Russian critical infrastructure and by sanctioning Putin’s inner circle and the secondary market for Russian bonds.
This pain, however, must have a goal beyond simply punishment; namely, to inflict a defeat for strategic effect, with the calculated aim of convincing Russia that its chosen path of westward expansion is closed. By contrast, U.S. policy toward Russia-in-Asia should be calibrated to encourage a redirection of Russia’s focus and energies in this direction. Such a policy would consist of economic, military, and political planks.”
I wonder if the escalation which happened in the donbass between March and June this year is related to the strategy described in this article and why after the build up they de-escalate. I wonder also if they (ukraine and nato) will go for it this time. You know desperate people do desperate things.
Okay, just one comment: the National Interest is a really weird outfit which I trust about as much as, say, Debka file, Russia Insider or Global Research. I will just say that the author has ZERO understanding of what really Russia and China are doing and leave it at that (sorry, not worth my time!).
Oh I don’t trust the national interest. It interesting because it shows what some harcore maniacs in Washington think and want to do.
I just wonder if what we saw this year, you know the ukrainian military build up near the donbass and the HMS Defender adventure, was related to the strategy described in the article. They may decide to try that again in the coming months.
I do think that some people in the US really consider that using the Ukrainians to do some damage to Russia is rather a good idea.
Some maniacs in Washington and Kiev are surely seeing war as a viable option. There is enough delusion and insanity in the US and the Ukraine for that.
But this is the delusion that shaped and oriented all the (geo)political thinking of the West since at least (in fact much earlier) the ‘Testament of Peter the Great’. The Russian ogre is after us, he cannot suffer our ‘values’, push them ‘east’, they are Tartars/Mongols mongrels anyway.
“tiny Switzerland had a proud and very interesting history, and she only became the Empire’s cheap prostitute in 1990”
Can you please state the incident/event that occurred in 1990 that you made reference to?
Sure, this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcker_Commission
Does that reply to your question adequately?
Wikipedia: “… the committee was able to report that only one bank, the Banque Cantonale de Geneve, refused to cooperate with the investigation.”
I wonder what was ‘verbotten’ to be audited there. Spidey-sense and all that…
There’s something that would increase the likelihood of a desperate deed like the one mentioned in the article: elections in Russia. In all their desperation the ukies might missread Russia’s response.
In this respect, namely how Russia would respond to an attack and, more importantly, whom would Russia hold accountable for such an attack, might lead lead the greyer cells of western Intel and military echelons to either preempt such a possibility, by nipping it in the bud, or forewarn the Russians.
Sorry but I forgot what 3B+PU means.
3 Baltic States + Poland/Ukraine.
Should have elaborated a bit more – 3 cheap Baltic prostitudes and two, slightly bigger, but same prostitudes.
Katerina,please,no ”prostitute states”. Just ”states”. It is in MY interest and MY interest only, to live peacefully with my neighbours and turn slowly the situation around. Make my enemies neutral, then make them ”just friends” and then turn them to allies. Why have eternal ”enemies” ? Isn’t this the really successful foreign policy of Russia today ?
ΚΓΨ: Thank you!
You are welcome !!
The US has about as much chance splitting up Russia and China as Nazi Germany did of splitting up USSR, Imperialist UK, and capitalist USA. All 3 regarding Nazi Germany so insane and evil the 3 amigos in spite of huge difference in ideology and long term interests stayed allied till Germany was defeated. Today USA with its constant intervention in other countries, the total propaganda about its reasons and the obvious viciousness of the USA government towards its own people , Forcing LGBT SJW on the USA people, forced “vaccinations with gene therapies 1000 times worse than Sputnik 5 or Sinopharm, the USA regime is so oppressive China and Russia will stay closely allied in self-protection
“All 3 regarding Nazi Germany so insane and evil ”
When yankees helped Germany to get ready to wage war. they did not regard it as insane and evil. See what Albert Speer said.
Possibly Zelensky’s curious recent comments are simply a response to the ongoing maneuvers between the Russian and Belorussian militaries not far away from Kiev in distance.
Hundrereds of miles away, not near Kiev
The problem with ukraine is that they seem to have a very bad public sewerage system: every now and again, it overflows with BS, and that’s as far as it goes, fortunately. How they don’t see how the rest of the normal world views them, and what they say, means they are living in a delusional fantasy bubble.
So Zelensky wants to declare total war, mmh sounds somewhat familiar to me…
Zelensky is known that he ‘stands up to the Russians’. Like in his viral youtube playing the piano!
The kind of standing up Zelensky have sticked to, is stand up comedy. Now he plays some sort of pitiful World War II imitation of high ranking nazis.
Oh this is almost too good to be true!!!
Look what the “geniuses” at NATO are busy with these days:
I read the article. They say this:
The Austrian Defense Ministry said that the nation’s airspace is violated between 30 and 50 times a year on average. Still, this incident apparently stands out in the Austrian military’s judgement since Bauer warned vaguely that it would likely have “diplomatic consequences.”
Nato countries are allies so what does that mean exactly? Who violates Austria s airspace and why does Austria let this happen? Strange statement from the Austrian Defense Ministry.
Does Austria have a nostalgia of the ‘Dancing Congress’?
austria is no NATO country, its neutral.
Exactly! The neutrality is part of Austria’s constitution: “immerwährende Neutralität”. Even the joining of the European Union is somewhat of a violation of Austrian principles. Interestingly enough, Austria did not permit NATO jets to pass their air space during the Yugoslavia wars, yet the Yanks did not care. Vienna did not protest against it either. So much potential wasted, when they could be a Switzerland 2.0. but are sucking up to the Americans instead…
Austriae Est imperare Omni Universo – remember the imperial AEIOU motto “It is up to Austria to rule over the whole universe”. Fear and tremble!
Lol. Ukraine was forced by Uncle $cam to back down last time. They will back down again. Sorry but I don’t see war breaking out in Ukraine. Although it is a dangerous situation and yeah you never know. In any case it will be a swift defeat for the Ukronazis.
First time seeing “Uncle $cam”. I like. Thanks.
I suspect discontent is the root cause of Ukrainian behavior.
In short, Petrov and Boshirov will be monitored again doing some dirty tricks. The Ukie will then fight them to the end barely and heroically push them back to Russia with a lot of losses on their side, aka the entire eastern side of Ukraine will be lost.
Well I’m sure, in case of a war, the ukrainians are going to kill tens of thousands of russians… Because their army and “defenses” are gonna make them laugh their hearts out….
Ze may not get away no matter what. It’s not impossible that in a case of a real confrontation, Russia would decapitate Ukraine quickly by destroying its institutions of “power” and taking the lives of their “leadership.”
Everybody is talking about Russia being about to attack and acting as though they are asking for it, but their worst nightmare and fear is Russia actually attacking.
’Ukraine’ will be gone in at most 5 years’ time. The awesome Bandernazis will be vegetating in the Galician backwater where they’ll go extinct due to declining birth rates and/or excessive inbreeding. No worries — not even Sultan Erdogan can save their cause. To summarize:
“As Hunter Biden foots the bills”… hahah you got me at that part ;D
‘Declining birth rates’ Yes, I have to say that this is endemic in the whole of Eastern Europe. Not only a fall in the birth rate, but a rise in the death rate and migration from East to West in Europe as a whole. The only reason it is not happening in Western Europe is mass immigration from the middle-east hot-spots and former colonies of the imperial powers, like UK and France.
I have to add that the population of Russia has not seen any great population decline, but the population is static and has been the same since the 1980s
Taliban offensive occupied entire Afghanistan in about 10 days.
If Russia launched war on Ukraine, I think Russia can occupy entire Ukraine in one week.
Thanks Andrei. Despite your horrendous blind-spot over the covid scam, this is why I still keep coming back to the Saker website! I began laughing helplessly at about the third paragraph, and continued guffawing constantly all the way through. Vintage Raevski stuff! Love it! Keep writing! Respect!
“But the fact is that the Ukies simply have no other choice than to try all they can to trigger a war sooner or later (but preferably sooner).”
The most important choice people have is to live or to die (in combat). To my knowledge all people prefer to live – if given the choice. Even the most simple minded Ukro Nazi militia man knows that he would perish if they were seriously attacking Russia. These mouth heroes will continue to kill and torture civilians but they will never attack the Russian military force.
The Nazi as an individual is a coward.
The regular Ukie troops will just flee the battle field if they haven’t gone into hiding before a war starts.
Talking about impending war seems to be the recipe to arouse interest for a blog. In April it was just the same.
Dont think the Ukie ‘elites’ are schizophrenics, they are just a disgusting, corrupt bunch. They are milking Germany on the only business model left to the Ukies: hysteric russophobia.
I haven’t had a laugh like this in some time. My sides hurt. Ze truly is the comedian of our age.
Well at least uncle $cam promised money and javelin AT weapons at Ze’s big boy summit with brain dead Biden. That ought to slow the Russians down for a few minutes. In a real shooting war against Russia, Ukraine is a speed bump tbh.
I’m not sure this has much direct link to Ukrainian madness but in my opinion it is 100% on topic for explaining the general trends towards that malaise. I posted it elsewhere but thought to share it here as well.
The Psychology of Totalitarianism: 4 things need to be in place (and they are).
Mass psychology works same as hypnosis. Professor Mattias Desmet is a lecturer of psychoanalytic psychotherapy at the Department of Psychoanalysis and Clinical Consulting, Ghent University.
The first 16-18 minutes set out the key points. It took him 6 months (in 2020) to work out that things (statistics) did not add up — and widespread blindness to this was evident. I found that to be my experience as well as bunkered down under chemotherapy on another personal health frontline in early 2020. And even now highly intelligent and credentialed people I know cannot ‘see’ this aspect.
According to Desmet, a hard core 30% never will wake up. Another 40% are semi-awake but going with the flow. And 30% are awake enough to see it in action. Mattias Desmet explains why as mass psychosis.
I’ve posted the Bitcute link here, but it may also be YouTube, although their livestream on that media was interrupted. The link was originally posted by someone in a comment on the UNZ report. Thank you to them. Nails it, imo. Highly recommended. Some screen images freeze from time to time but the audio is 100% continuous.
If a search is needed the title is: “The Psychology of Totalitarianism. Reiner Fuellmich, Prof Mattias Desmet, Wolfgang Wodarg” and posted August 2nd, 2021.
I think you’re absolutely right that some kind of military provocation from Ukraine is highly likely, if only for the simple reason that it’s the *only* remaining move available, both for Ukraine itself and for Slug naroda as well as Ze personally.
It’s become painfully clear that Ukraine or Banderastan or whatever it’s called these days is of no real value to the US or Europe, even as a cat’s paw, so there’s zero leverage for anything except hollow gestures and dribs and drabs of US weaponry. It’s also clear that Ze will likely be taking the fall once whoever replaces him, so unless he can get out, he’ll be doing hard time as the symbol of national failure, at least if the ochlocrats don’t just string him up.
Onw way or another, I have a feeling that a chunk of Russian speaking Ukraine will be in the RF before we’re all very much older. And if the Azovs or their fellow Nazi wannabes try something on the border then, well, they’ll likely be turning into red mist in a hurry.
My two cents worth. feel free to point out if you think I’m wrong.
@Stephen T Johnson
I think your post makes sense, my only minor quibble being that ”a military provocation from Ukraine”, especially if it’s considered ’highly likely’, instantly rules out any professionalism that would testify to cunning, careful planning. The Ukros are total garbage all along the line as is their bogus ’state’. They lost the plot forever over 7 years ago. Hence, a ’military provocation’ by these misfits which I believe they actually could pull off is flying a banner plane close to Crimea carrying the message (in English, mind you, to impress where Ukros feel it matters most) Filthy Moskals, end Crimean occupation now. Hunter Biden has our back.
Well, I don’t think the Russians will respond militarily to anything that doesn’t actually kill people, even your wonderful banner idea!
When I say military provocation I mean something done by Ukraine or related forces that involves substantial (more than, say 10) civilian casualties, hostage taking or large scale damage to buildings, roads, bridges, what have you. As to military incompetence, I couldn’t agree more, but even the army that couldn’t shoot straight can still cause some damage, especially to civilians.
Again, my core argument is that desperation, rather than any kind of reasoned analysis, will be the motive force behind whatever Ukraine may do.
OK, someone explain to us again why Ukraine is important.
The same reason the Baltic states are important – it’s on the border with Russia. The only reason the US/EU/Israel have any interest in it.
I agree with all is said but using the term uki isn’t very professional or impartial. No reason to generalise or sink to the level of mainstream media or the Azov intellectuals. Many Ukrainians, especially in the east do not approve with the anti Russian rhetoric and at the end of the day Russians and Ukrainians are not that culturally different.