Translated and captioned by Leo.
Make sure to press CC for English captions.
On Facebook, there is only talk about the new sanctions, and not only there, of course. Against the background of the rise of the dollar, the deafening chorus performing the operetta “This is the end,” tries to block the voices of those who are not inclined to rash conclusions. Basically, “you won’t strangle our song, and won’t kill it.”
Let’s discard the hysterical chants and take a look at what exactly Washington is going to undertake against Russia and how it threatens us. Let’s go.
This is what is being talked about in the bill, which American lawmakers are waving, shouting that they will kick our asses.
Prepared by Senators Lindsay Graham, Robert Menendez, Corey Gardner and Ben Cardin, the text actually begins with appeals to President Donald Trump. In particular, he is called upon to support efforts to counter the interference “by the Russian government or other foreign players in the activities of US government agencies, as well as in the democratic processes in the country.” The second wish is “to publicly urge the Russian government to return the Crimea to the control of the Ukrainian government, and also to urge the separatists to abandon support for violence in eastern Ukraine.” This paragraph also refers to the “occupation and support of separatists” in the territories of Georgia and Moldova. Another demand (again to President Trump) is to urge Moscow to abandon the support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who, according to the authors of the bill, continues to “commit war crimes.”
Wait. Hold on… Who is this bill against? Against Russia, or against the US President? From the available data, it turns out that the main goal of the initiative of the American senators is to prevent Trump from reducing tensions with Moscow at any cost.
That is, in fact, they act according to the principle, “beat your own, so that others would be afraid.” But the bill contains nothing new. It only links all the sanctions that have already been imposed against Russia earlier in a single bundle of dill, as if codifying them. Well, good for them. We are neither cold nor hot from this.
However, this is a sound position, following which many hysterical back-ups made in the form factor of adult men are simply not capable. A vivid proof of this is the rise in the dollar.
Notice, nothing has changed yet, the American bill has not been passed, and the dollar rate has already crept up. This is explained by the fact that investors are fearful. But not only that – there are other arguments.
Here is what the liberal publication Kommersant writes:
“The market situation is such that several factors work against the ruble at once. Conversion of dividends of the largest Russian companies contributes to its weakening. The 2017 dividend payout season itself ended in July with payments for shares of Gazprom and Surgutneftegaz (respectively for 190 billion rubles and 28 billion rubles). In late July, analysts called the sale of foreign exchange earnings for dividend payments one of the reasons for the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate to 62 rubles for $1. Now the reverse process has begun.”
It means factors. Objective ones. Oh well. Here you have more of the “objective factors” that my colleague Vladimir Kornilov paid attention to.
Меня спрашивают о причинах проседания рубля. Понятно, паника вокруг "санкций из ада" сыграла свою роль. Но обратите внимание, как накануне за деньги (!), на правах рекламы эту панику продвигали в соцсетях "Открытые медиа" Ходорковского. Т.е. он платит за распространение паники pic.twitter.com/hVqfKk9smE
— Vladimir Kornilov (@Kornilov1968) August 9, 2018
“They ask me about the reasons for the sinking of the ruble. Clearly, the panic around the ‘sanctions from hell’ played a role. But notice how, on the day before, for money (!), as an advertisement, this panic was promoted on the Open Media social network of Khodorkovsky. That is, he pays for spreading panic.”
The conclusion is obvious: we are dealing with a planned attack. No harm will be sanctioned to us, unless crowds of investors believe that they will. And they will not break down the ruble. This is what we are seeing. However, this is not the first time, and it’s time to get used to it. Remember the predictions of “a dollar for 80 [rubles]?” And “a dollar for 200 [rubles]?” Where are their authors now, have they been hiccuping for several years now?
The authors of the latest forecasts will go to exactly the same place, because there are no objective reasons for the ruble to fall. And sane media, not prone to liberal hysteria for Khodorkovsky’s money, write about it.
“Fear of devaluation is not worth it. As it often happens on the stock exchanges, after a couple of days of sales, investors calm down – and the rates return to their previous levels. Moreover, there are no other negative factors on the horizon. Firstly, the price of oil is still above $70. Secondly, we have accumulated huge international reserves. In the pot, the Central Bank has $460 billion. And, if necessary, part of this money can be spent on the market to smooth out exchange rate fluctuations. And thirdly, it is unlikely that the US Congress will want to go according to a tough scenario. Most likely, sanctions, as has happened more than once, under the pressure of American business, which has a large weight in overseas politics, will soften.”
Pay attention to the third point. After all, in addition to sanctions from the Congress, the State Department announced that it would once again punish Russia for the “highly likely” Skripal poisoning. How will they punish? Oh, this is an extravaganza.
In particular, we will talk about a ban on the export to Russia of goods that may be associated with national security. At the same time, Russia was issued an ultimatum: if it does not provide Washington with convincing guarantees against the use of chemical and biological weapons, then new sanctions will follow. Among them – a decrease in the level of diplomatic relations, a strict restriction of exports and imports, as well as the suspension of Aeroflot flights to the United States.
Let’s break down the points. They want to reduce the level of diplomatic relations. Alright, let him recall the ambassador. What do we lose? All the real estate that the Russian Foreign Ministry had in the US was already stupidly and brazenly pressed. They would be happy to break another international agreement, but there is nothing more to wring out. Do you [Russians] need an American ambassador in Moscow? I do not.
The second point is a strict restriction of exports and imports. Well, what products, “related to national security,” do we buy from them? None, it is they who buy rocket engines and aviation titanium from us. And those American manufacturers who buy vital components for themselves have the most powerful lobby in Congress. So these elderly clowns similar to McCain are unlikely to allow the State Department to turn around.
The third point: the suspension of Aeroflot flights to the USA. Wait a minute, I already heard that somewhere. Yes, that’s it, it was in April.
“Aeroflot may refuse direct flights to the States. The reason is that Washington deliberately delays the issuance of visas to pilots and crew members. The carrier has already asked for help from diplomats and the Ministry of Transport.”
That is – America showed off, our company itself wanted to cancel the flights, but the Washington fraer passed back. How did it then affect the ruble exchange rate? It didn’t. So why should this lead to devaluation now?
That is, you see: when we begin to delve into the topic, dig a little further than hysterical headlines, all these supposedly new cool sanctions no longer look like a “double blow” in the style of the ancient action movie with Van Damme, but looks like a pathetic attempt to use the decrepit hegemony to pressure Russia at least some leverage.
Let them pressure us. They, because of the limited mental abilities, do not think beyond the two-way combinations. That is, they don’t understand that by activating these levers, in the long term they are depriving themselves of the opportunity to use them, as was the case with a bunch of other levers.
If I, you and millions of our fellow citizens do not want to buy dollars in a panic tomorrow, then the ruble exchange rate will not fail. It is on the arrangement of a panic that all these loud headers and strained crowing are calculated.
Keep calm, and soon we will see the next series of lamentations of “Putin betrayed us,” when the ruble rises again, and sanctions, suddenly, will have an effect on our country, just the opposite of Washington’s political elders’ expectations.