First check this out:

I would just add that to think that the Russian winter can prevent the Russian military from fighting is simply breathtakingly stupid.  However, since The Telegraph can post such nonsense, this goes to show that the general public in the West has also been stupidified beyond rescue and can be fed any bullcrap without batting an eye.

While the leaders of the (already dead) Empire are consulting meteorologists (or even astrologists?), they are completely missing the basic reality of modern warfare.  These seem to be especially unaware of three basic facts:

  • Modern warfare is primarily conducted with long range, standoff, weapons and this makes maneuver by fire far more important than maneuver by forces.
  • Modern warfare places a huge importance on integrated air defenses working together under automated battle management systems.  Modern air defense missiles can shoot down targets several hundred of kilometers away.  No western air defense system can stop hypersonic weapons.
  • Modern warfare is primarily non-linear, that is to say that it is more like soccer than like US football: each player (say a battalion tactical group)  “follows/opposes” another player rather than trying to hold a line and defend territory.

Those who think that Putin is preparing a WWII style attack simply don’t understand modern warfare at all.

I want to conclude with two small notes:

Strategic vs operational/tactical mobility

The US can very quickly deploy a military force pretty much anywhere on the planet were modern air defenses are absent.  This means that in terms of strategic mobility, the USA remains the leader in the deployment of a light force very far away from home.

Russian mobile forces are much much heavier than their US counterparts.  A Russian Airborne Division is fully mechanized, and comes with its own artillery, armor, EW, etc..  This weight makes it impossible for the Russian to use, say, IL-76s or An-124s to deploy such an Airborne Division (or brigade or even battalion) somewhere in faraway African or Latin America.  However, by this sacrifice of strategy mobility Russia achieves a operational/tactical mobility which US/NATO countries can only dream of.  Simply put, Russia does not have the means to deploy a full infantry battalion somewhere in distant Paraguay, but she does have the means to transport a major Airborne Force (up to several divisions) anywhere inside Russia (this especially applies to forces designated as the “reserve of the commander in chief”) or, very roughly, within about 1000km from the Russian border.  Once landed, that force will not only have a firepower mobile western forces can’t even begin to hope to acquire one day, they can also quickly relocate being, as I mentioned, totally mechanized (the move of the Rusbat from Bosnia to Pristina is a good illustration of this type of capability).

All of the above is to show how utterly stupid all the discussions about Russian forces being 100, 200 or even 400km away from the Ukie border.  If needed, Russia could easily move a very large force (again, fully mechanized) to the Ukie border or even into the Nazi-controlled Ukraine.  I do NOT believe that they have such plans (as Russia has much better options) but Russia definitely has the possibility to very quickly augment the 100k soldiers allegedly currently within 400km of the Ukie border.

Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, etc.

I hear a lot of speculations about Russian missiles (or forces) being deployed “Cuban Missile Crisis” -style to either Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua or other friendly nations in Latin America.  I would never say never (Putin loves to surprise), but in my opinion other than a reopening of the Russian intel basis in Lourdes, Russia will not actually deploy missiles in any of those countries.  There are a couple of reasons for that:

  • Russia has no need to move her missiles anywhere because she now has the means to strike at the entire continental United States with a wide array of long range standoff weapons.
  • These countries are all unstable to some degree, and the issue of protecting advanced Russian weapons systems (or forces) from possible political turmoil is a headache nobody in Russia needs.
  • Deploying weapon systems of forces in a sovereign country require close consultations and negotiations with the host country (including a so-called SOFA).  Why go through these headaches we Russian can act unilaterally without consulting with anybody?

Finally, not only can Russia threaten the continental United States without involving any third country, Russia can threaten US interests were they are the most vulnerable: abroad (especially in CENTCOM and in Far East Asia and Pacific region).  Personally, I very much hope to see some truly major Russian weapon systems deliveries to both Iran and China.  That being said, assisting Latin American counties like Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Chile or any other country struggling for its sovereignty would be a very good idea.  Cuba would especially benefit from modern Russian air defenses and EW capabilities.

For the time being, let’s hear more about “sanctions from hell” and even “personal sanctions against Putin” or how the Russian tanks cannot deal with snow (or mud) in the exact same location where the USSR defeated the united Europe under Hitler in WWII or, before that, the united Europe under Napoleon.

Frankly, it appears to me that the 3B+PU crazies have totally taken over the Empire, and history shows how well that ends every time these “geniuses” and “hyenas” get involved in international politics.

And, finally, I really hope that Russia manages to finally protect the LDNR from the Ukronazis but WITHOUT any direct military intervention in the Ukraine (I have no problems with deniable, indirect, efforts to assist the LDNR).  Such a non-invasion would be the ultimate AngloZionist nightmare and I sure hope they get it!

Andrei

The Essential Saker IV: Messianic Narcissism's Agony by a Thousand Cuts
The Essential Saker III: Chronicling The Tragedy, Farce And Collapse of the Empire in the Era of Mr MAGA