Disclaimer: this is not an analysis, just a quick initial reaction.

So we now have both replies.

First, Lavrov was right, compared to the NATO reply, the US reply is a model of diplomatic propriety.

One could be forgiven to think that while the US reply was written by US officials, the NATO reply was written by a Pole.

Except it is quite obvious that NATO member states can’t even take a breath without asking Uncle Shmuel’s permission.

So are these two very different replies prepared by the self same people?

Yup.  That is my guess.

Next, let’s look at the core of the replies:

  • US: let’s talk, and talk, and then talk some more ad aeternam
  • NATO reply: do you clearly see our middle finger Mr Putin?

In reality, it is one and the same reply: the Master Race does not negotiate with Snow Niggers.

By the way, all the quite reasonable confidence building measures now “proposed” by the USA have all been proposed by Russia in the past and proudly rejected by the Master Race.

What effect will that single reply (in two hypostases) will most likely result in.

  • The Russians will act unilaterally and dial up the pain dial, very slowly and deliberately.
  • The EU will act like kids who threw a stone at a window: run like hell, hide, and wait to see what Russia will do.  If the markets read this correctly, they should freak out begin a sharp decline.
  • The US will keep a mostly benevolent facial expression while egging on the EU to further provoke Russia
  • Both Zones A and Zones B will consolidate around, respectively, the US and Russia/China.

I will stop here by adding just a few simple facts:

  • China cannot afford a Western victory in this struggle (anymore than Russia can afford a US victory against China).  Since Putin is going to meet Xi in Beijing, we can expect some interesting statements to come out in the near future.
  • It is extremely likely that the Russian Duma will officially sent major military aid to the LDNR.
  • It is very possible that the Russian Duma will ask the Kremlin to recognize the LDNR.
  • A CIA/MI6 false flag attack in the Ukraine is very likely.
  • Ze is screwed.  He knows it.

That’s it, let’s wait a day or so before making any real analyses.

Andrei

PS: the one thing which really makes me laugh is this: if a big war is about to break up, why are western diplomats being evacuated from Kiev but not from Moscow?  :-)

The Essential Saker IV: Messianic Narcissism's Agony by a Thousand Cuts
The Essential Saker III: Chronicling The Tragedy, Farce And Collapse of the Empire in the Era of Mr MAGA