(Translated from Belarusian by Engländer)
Reform of the National Security Sector
The situation both inside the country and around it is developing in an unfavourable way for the national interests of Belarus. The main threats to national security are caused by the growth of the Kremlin’s aggressive foreign policy, Belarus’ participation in post-Soviet integrationist projects under the auspices of Russia, the domination of Russian media in the information space, and a low level of national consciousness among Belarusians.
The fundamental vectors of reform of the existing state policy are the following: exit from integrationist unions that have Russia as a member; preservation and development of national cultural heritage and the Belarusian language; stable economic growth; a high level and quality of life for citizens; democratic system of leadership.
As a result of this reform the dangers of outside interference and of a destabilisation of the situation in the country will decrease, as will attempts to split apart the society and the territorial integrity of Belarus.
Problems against which the reform is directed
1. The Kremlin’s aggressive foreign policy
In order to realise its revanchist imperial plans the Kremlin is actively making use of:
- economic and energy blackmail
- media pressure
- spreading fake news and disinformation
- having a toxic effect on the elite and the citizenry
- falsification of history with the goal of manipulating public consciousness
- artificially provoking and inflaming internal conflicts
The Russian leadership is using the concept of the “Russian world” in order to strengthen Moscow’s control over Belarus. The basis for this is often the Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church. The Kremlin often applies methods of “soft power”: NDA’s, opinion factories, mass media, bloggers, social networks, and [student] exchanges and work-experience placements in Russia.
2. Absence of democracy, freedom of speech, freedom of association and other basic freedoms
Independent media is under strong pressure. Civil society and the political opposition are confronted with harsh restrictions on their actions and persecution. There haven’t been free and honest elections in the country for more than two decades.
3. Low level of national consciousness and the domination of the Russian language
A complete inability of the state ideology and state media to compete with the propaganda of Russian media: Russian television and radio is de facto dominant in Belarus’ information space.
4. The problematic state of the Belarusian economy
The Belarusian economy is faced with a significant depletion of basic funds and technologically it lags behind not only world leaders, but also its neighbours – the EU countries.
5. Belarus’ membership in integrationist supranational structures where Russia dominates –, the Union State, the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization), Eurasian Economic Union, CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States)
As part of the CSTO Belarusians are threatened with being dragged into armed conflicts in Central Asia, and also across the whole world. Because of our participation in the CSTO there exists the threat of Asian or Russian troops being used on our territory. Belonging to the CSTO also impedes the modernisation of our army.
6. The change of priorities and focal points in the foreign policy of the European Union
The EU is grappling with unprecedented migratory challenges and the consequences of Brexit. Many EU countries are seeking compromises with the Kremlin. The US isn’t a real guarantor of Belarus’ independence, despite progress in bilateral relations and a firm commitment on the part of Washington to the independence and sovereignty of Belarus.
BASIC GOALS / THE REFORM’S OBJECTIVES
The fundamental goal of national security sector reform is the immediate mobilisation and consolidation of the citizenry with the aim of defending independence and sovereignty.
- to strengthen national identity, increase patriotism and national dignity;
- to unite the citizenry on the basis of democratic values and the idea of building an independent Belarus;
- to reduce the influence of the Kremlin on Belarus through informational, economic, integrationist and humanitarian factors;
- exit from post-Soviet integrationist unions with Russian domination;
- integration into Western political, economic, and military structures (the EU, NATO)
BASIC STEPS TOWARDS THE CONCEPT’S REALISATION
Immediate measures (before 2021):
1. In the political sphere:
- exit from the “Union State”, the Eurasian Union, the Customs Union, and other integrationist formations where Russia dominates;
- banning of pro-Russian organisations whose activities go against our national interests, and also of Russian funds and the organisations which finance such structures;
- the introduction of criminal liability for public statements which call into question the existence of a separate Belarusian nation and/or its historical right to its own state. The introduction of criminal liability for public insults of the Belarusian language;
- monitoring by civil society powers of the activities of pro-Kremlin initiatives in Belarus;
- the implementation of border and customs controls at the borders with Russia;
- a ban on selling Belarusian infrastructure objects to Russian companies
3. In the information sphere:
- freeing independent media from pressure and control from the state, ensuring media freedom and freedom of speech in Belarus;
- banning the broadcast in Belarus of journalistic, socio-political, and news programs which are made by Russian TV channels;
- inclusion into the standard televisual package of the mandatory publicly available TV channels of Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine;
- restoring the continuous activities of the Public Coordination Council in the mass-media sphere
4. In the military sphere:
- exit from the CSTO, the returning to Belarus of full control over its own anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems;
- expulsion of Russian military objects from Belarusian territory – i.e. the communications centre in Vileyka and the radar-station near Baranavichy;
- expansion of patriotic training in the Belarusian army;
- switching of educational work in the army over to the Belarusian language;
- development of border infrastructure on the borders with EU countries, increasing the access capacity of border-crossings.
5. In the environmental sphere:
- banning the commissioning of, and closing new harmful factories in Brest, Mogilev and Svetlogorsk;
- publication of exhaustive and truthful information regarding the construction, safety and use of the Astravets nuclear power plant;
- conducting a wide-ranging public discussion regarding the fate of the Astravets nuclear power plant.
6. In the social sphere:
- raising wages and improving working conditions for workers in healthcare and education
7. In the cultural sphere:
- popularisation of national heroes, with a preference for those from the 19th and 20th centuries
- popularisation of the personage of Kastuś Kalinoŭski as the political founder of the modern Belarusian nation, as a symbol of the Belarusians’ struggle for freedom and independence, and as a figure who had to consolidate around him all those who were devoted to the values of national renaissance and the country’s independence.
Medium-term objectives (before 2025)
1. In the political sphere:
- reform of electoral legislation, the conducting of free, honest, and fair elections to the country’s parliament;
- the formation of a National Guard in order to safeguard parliament and protect the constitutional order in the country;
- the formation of a National Security Service accountable to parliament;
- restoration of the independence of the courts from the executive branch;
- the implementation of public control, in the first instance by parliament, over the Armed Forces;
2. In the economic sphere:
- diversification of energy supplies, lowering Russia’s share as a supplier of energy to Belarus to 50% of the total volume of energy imports;
- expansion of the use of alternative energy sources;
- implementation of the state Program on energy saving, the lowering of energy consumption and a transition to local forms of fuel;
- construction of a new oil refinery in Novopolotsk, focused on light crude oil;
- inclusion of Belarus in cooperation programs within the framework of the “Three Seas” Initiative, with the aim of preparing the necessary documents, programs and infrastructure for Belarus’ joining the future system of liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries from the US to Eastern Europe;
- privatisation of state enterprises with a ban on purchase by companies with more than 20% share of Russian capital, the creation of conditions for the attraction of direct foreign investment;
- building modern railways and arterial highways [for the routes] Kiev-Minsk-Vilnius, Lviv-Brest-Grodno-Vilnius, Vitebsk-Polotsk-Daugavpils-Riga.
4. In the information sphere:
- making it so that the maximum number of accessible cable TV channels which have a foreign country involved in their production is set at 50% of the total TV channels offered in the package
- raising the quality level of Belarusian national TV channels, creating special socio-political and historical programmes;
- re-broadcasting by national TV channels of popular-scientific, entertainment, and news programmes from EU countries, the UK, Canada, the US, and Australia.
5. In the military sphere:
- transition to NATO standards;
- training of military personnel, with Belarusian soldiers being sent to corresponding educational establishments and centres of NATO countries.
- transition of all activities of the Belarusian army to the Belarusian language;
- giving Belarusian military units and educational establishments the names of Belarusian national heroes;
- the formation of the Belarusian armed forces from four integral parts: 1. A nucleus of professional soldiers who serve on a contractual basis; 2. Citizens who carry out a fixed period of military service; 3. Volunteer territorial units formed from citizens who maintain their civilian occupations, but undergo periodic training and can be quickly mobilised; 4. Reserves – all male citizens who are fit for service, and who have gone through military training during their fixed-term service.
- Changing the system for training soldiers during their fixed-term service, and for reservists. A focus on patriotic education and the acquiring of necessary skills.
- Changing the length of mandatory service to six months;
- The size of the Armed Forces, without counting reservists, should be between 75 and 80 thousand men;
- Setting up of the necessary infrastructure on the Belarusian-Russian border.
6. In the environmental sphere:
- The creation of favourable economic conditions for investments in projects to obtain energy from renewable sources and in the processing and re-using of waste products (garbage etc.);
- Rehabilitation of territories polluted by radiation
7. In the social sphere:
- Creation of the conditions for the return of Belarusians working abroad, in particular doctors, medical workers, and highly qualified specialists of other professions;
- Promoting the return of the descendants of our compatriots who left Belarus before the restoration of its independence as a state, through passing a law for a Compatriot’s Card – Belarusian Abroad (translator’s note: this would be a card for people of Belarusian ethnicity living abroad to prove their membership of the Belarusian nation, modelled presumably on the Polish Karta Polaka).
8. In the cultural sphere:
- Returning to the Belarusian language the status of single state language, while guaranteeing the right of national minorities to education and the holding of cultural events in their native language[s];
- Development and implementation of administrative and financial measures to stimulate Belarusian-language media, book-publishing, and cultural life. Return of state subsidies for teaching and education in Belarusian at pre-school, middle, and higher educational establishments.
- The carrying out of comprehensive de-communisation and de-sovietisation of Belarus;
- Belarusianisation of religious life for all Christian faiths and for other religions;
- Belarusianisation of the education system at all levels and of all types;
- Restoration of the registration, status, and state financing of the Yakub Kolas National State Humanities Lyceum, with academic freedom safeguarded for teachers, pupils, and parents; the opening of branches of the National State Humanities Lyceum in every regional capital.
Long-term goals (before 2030):
- Creation of an end-to-end system of Belarusian-language education from kindergartens through to universities;
- Restoration of the Belarusian Autocephalous Orthodox Church as a national alternative to the Belarusian Exarchate of the Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate;
- Fulfilment by Belarus of all membership criteria for the EU and NATO; the completion of the corresponding applications for membership in these structures;
- Ensuring of long-term food security through diversification of the supply of foodstuffs into the country, the creation of food reserves, the modernisation of agricultural production, and the development of farms.
- Strengthening of cooperation and formation of a strategic partnership in the framework of the Baltic-Black Sea community; the formation and organisation of a corresponding regional inter-state block;
- The realisation of a program of diversifications in energy supply, with a limit on the share of suppliers from any one country set at 30% of the total volume of energy imports.
This would be hilarious if it wasn’t so sad and pathetic. Same playbook was used on their neighbours to the devastating effect and now this so-called “opposition” wants exactly the same for Belarus! I hope that most belorussians still have functioning brains and realise before it’s too late what a ghastly rort this sold out lot wants to perpertrate on them. Belarus without Russia is walking dead..
It doesn’t matter what “most Belarus people” want. In the absence of a plebiscite, the opinion of the vast majority of any population is irrelevant. Most people in any case want to be left alone in peace; the competition is always between ideological groups who are a small minority and vie with each other in shouting the loudest and carrying the most intimidating sticks. In that shouting game, the so called information war, Russian incompetence has been truly mind boggling. You’d think that by now, after Chechnya, the Georgia war, the Ukranazi Maidan, the “Russian election interference” propaganda, the Litvinenko and Skripal (and now Navalny) lies, Russia would have finally begun improving its performance. You’d think wrong. When the zionist entity bombs Gaza, the zio ambassador in India proactively sends Hasbara articles to magazines explaining away the genocide. Go to any Indian magazine website and you’ll find articles by American propagandists with anti Russian slants, and bought and paid for articles by Indian fifth columnist journalists. When America invaded Afghanistan Indian magazines ran cover photos cheering the fall of Kabul and two years later ran an orchestrated though ultimately failed campaign to get India to join the invasion of Iraq. What happens when Russia conducts a defensive campaign? Where are the articles from the Russian embassy explaining the Crimean accession, the intervention in Syria, the Russian innocence in American “election interference” and Skripal? Where are the Russian ballet troupes that used to tour India during Soviet times, the Russian movies, the Russian magazines, the Russian pop stars performing in India? Nowhere. It seems to me that it’s left to us, the few who actually bother to read the real news, think for ourselves, and form our own opinion, to try to defend Russia in our home countries. This is s totally thankless task and in any shouting match we’ll be drowned out.
” Russian incompetence has been truly mind boggling. ”
What if its all feigned incompetence ? Do you actually think the Russians are so naïve in psychological warfare ?
Either that or they are trying to lose.
Your comment is very strong and sad. Don’t we all miss the old USSR? It was destoyed by propaganda and sabotage… The same is happening now. I do hope that Russia does something to avoid the worst…
The problem is that in the propaganda war LIES always win over TRUTH.
Because telling lies gives the liar a much broader panel of things to say, in particular he can say what the listener wants to hear (even if it is false).
On the other hand, TRUTH always ands wining over LIES on the mind of intelligent people.
Regardless of the volume or spread of the propaganda.
So, basically, there are two kind of “listeners”:
a) people too lazy to think, that will prefere to believe in easy lies
b) people that searches the truth, and can find it if it exists
So, each government/political movement has choice, to which audience to cater,
but that choice will also define such government/political movement, forever (because once you said a lie, even if only once, you cannot be trusted anymore, ever, by a truth seeker.
Telling lies is an easy short-term game; but it is a losing game on the long term.
“So, each government/political movement has choice, to which audience to cater,”
Those enmazed in binaries of agency/no agency believe/hope/wish that the facility to choose exists, predicated on the notion that “communication” is not an interaction.
“Telling lies is an easy short-term game; but it is a losing game on the long term.”
This is an ill informed perception of facility predicated on beliefs/hopes/wishes of communication/pedagogy, often but not always relied upon by the opponents.
All datastreams, including what some perceive as the “plausible belief of the day”, afford opportunities to others whom are neither playing games nor enmazed in win/lose binaries and its derivative cui bono..
Good observations, Pavlo. Also, gifted liars win out because when there is a big discrepancy between what two people are saying, there is a tendency for people to assume the truth lies somewhere in between the two views, giving partial benefit of the doubt to the liar. It is laziness and pride–people don’t want to admit they don’t know, so they give you their couch-king opinion.
Who’s going to publish those articles sent by Russian Diplomats?
You have to pay them. Russia has money.
I agree with Kouroi. CIA and others do not keep MSM in line just with money. I guess, the first journalist that writes soemthing submitted by Russian diplomats would be out on the street before the text is ever published, if not out of life. Also, we should not underestimate power of ideology – in this case anti-Russian ideology. Most of editors and journalists in the west do indeed believe what they write and say about Russia. It is not the question of money, not at all. Not toeing the party line by a journo is visible immediately. Other professions, scientists etc., they can be bought perhaps, couse their not toeing the line is not immediately visible. And we know that in the past, soviets did have sucess in non-media realm.
I wonder how much are Belarusians informed ? Because the wishlist for reform-plans sounds to me – as a Middle European – partly like some sort of fantasy. Don’t they look how Romanians or Bulgarians are doing yet being in the EU included for several years? Don’t they know that US gas is more costly than that of Russia ? Don’t they read ? Didn’t they see how badly helped EU-states other EU-states because of Corona ? Don’t they know that NATO members are dictated by USA ? Didn’t they look how EU handled Greece ? Or how the EZB functions and who is the top chief of it ? Don’t Belarusians know that the EU isn’t a democracy ?
Some parts of their wishlist is o.k. and understandable but some are pure wishes without knowing what is connected with.
And moreover the Euro lost much of its purchasing power.
The above mentioned is just my own humble reflection.
A recipe for a Belorusian banderastan. If a majority of the people in Belorus is dumb enough to accept this crap i think they should go for it. Personally i would not care if the toilet cleaner is from the ukraine or belorus, the salary is fair but the living costs make sure that the cleaners family back home will not be much better off.
The ship building industry might need desperate belorusians too, i know for a fact that they prefer underpaid eastern europeans. I have competed directly with them😂 (btw we got the job in the end, i guess the boss @ Ulstein understood that ukrainians building and sleeping behind fake walls would NOT get the ship out of the dry dock🤣 PS they get paid 1/4-1/3 of the minimum salary in Norway @ Ulstein Kleven and most other jobs i know about. If you choose serfdom remember to unionize if you come to Norway, our unions are still quite strong)
So dear Belorus please choose wisely, the mirage the hyenas next door and the FUKUS promise is good for the Norwegian business owners not you guys or us.
(a personal note and view)
Very much like the Ukraine in 2013, I was unaware of a separate Belarusian (or Ukrainian) language. I thought everyone east of Poland and west of China spoke Russian.
Just looking at a sample on Yandex Translate, it has a very similar appearance to Ukrainian. It looks like CehSha becomes ZehSha in Belarusian, or thereabouts. And the alphabet seems to sport a letter ‘i’.
But even so, I’d think that the cultural ties to Russia would be much closer than any such ties to Europe.
I don’t know any Velikorussians or Malorussians or Byelorussians who say they can’t understand each other entirely, from what they tell me.
Basically both Belarusian and Ukrainian only really exist as separate languages because the Rus’ in these areas were separated from the (Great)-Russians after the Mongol invasion and thereafter included in the Grand Duchy of Lithuania or Poland. In the 1600s they shared a written standard commonly referred to as “Ruthenian”, which suppressed much of the phonological developments taking place in the language and was basically an increasingly Polonised form of Old East Slavic.
Ukrainian is the most different from Russian because many of its distinguishing phonological features were actually present even during the Kievan Rus’ times. A few of these are shared by Belarusian, but for the most part Belarusian phonology is much closer to Russian; what makes it a separate language is the massive amount of Polish or Polish-inspired vocabulary, which it tends to share with Ukrainian.
I had actually never read anything in Belarusian before translating this, but knowledge of Russian, a bit of Polish and Ukrainian, and knowing how Belarusian spelling works is more than enough for it to be broadly comprehensible.
Seems like a good explanation sir, from what little I know, thanks! Trying to learn Russian for a while now. Seems from what I’ve heard, Bulgarian is pretty close to Russian too. As for the West Slavic languages, I’ve got relatives that understand each of them fairly well, because they’re native to one.
“I had actually never read anything in Belarusian before translating this, but knowledge of Russian, a bit of Polish and Ukrainian, and knowing how Belarusian spelling works is more than enough for it to be broadly comprehensible.”
Comprehension is not wholly a function of “language” but also functions of interpretation and register.
For clarification how was the following phrases:
“…the domination of Russian media in the information space, and a low level of national consciousness among Belarusians”
“BASIC STEPS TOWARDS THE CONCEPT’S REALISATION
Immediate measures (before 2021):
1. In the political sphere:
2. In the economic sphere:
4. In the information sphere:
5. In the military sphere:
6. In the environmental sphere:
7. In the social sphere:
8. In the cultural sphere:
Long-term goals (before 2030):”
rendered in the original?
Copy and paste will suffice and will aid comprehension.
You can read the whole original by clicking on the source link, and yes there will definitely be areas where my translation is far from perfect:
“дамінаваннем расійскіх медыя ў інфармацыйнай прасторы і невысокім узроўнем нацыянальнай свядомасці беларусаў”. Here my translation “information space” is clunky and perhaps should have been “media space”, but I’d just used the word “media” so I couldn’t repeat it.
“АСНОЎНЫЯ КРОКІ ПА РЭАЛІЗАЦЫІ КАНЦЭПЦЫІ” – I think I should’ve used “main” rather than “basic” for основной, but this word is tricky to translate into English because it covers more semantic ground than any of our equivalents. There may also have been better options for “concept”; it’s difficult for me to know what sounds clunky in the original and what just sounds clunky when translated too literally.
“Першачарговыя захады (да 2021 году):” першачарговыя would literally be “first-order”, but this is a strange word in English. The big challenge here is да (до): is it “before” or “up to” (“until” just wouldn’t work). The meaning isn’t greatly changed either way.
The reason why no. 3 is missing is because of what I think must be a typo in the original: immediately after the measures listed under heading 1. “У палітычнай сферы:” it had “2. Забарона на продаж расейскім кампаніям аб’ектаў беларускай інфраструктуры.” which seemed to me to fit under heading number 1. as a political measure, rather than as a separate heading.
As for the translations of these headings, they all have the word “сфэры” for which there arguably exists a better translation than “sphere”, but I don’t think the meaning is greatly altered by my choice of translation. Belarusian has hardened all of its soft /r’/’s, which I think explains the -ы ending in the locative singular feminine noun. They use “экалагічнай”, but we use its exact equivalent “ecological” much more rarely, and in this case we certainly would say “environmental”.
I did struggle with 8. У культурніцкай сфэры, because культурніцкі may be the equivalent of Russian культурнический rather than культурный, and I freely admit that I don’t really know what культурнический means. I think it has more to do with education than just culture, but you’d be hard-pressed to come up with a good English equivalent.
“Доўгатэрміновыя мэты (да 2030 году):” There’s nothing to argue about here other than “да” which I’ve covered above.
“You can read the whole original by clicking on the source link, and yes there will definitely be areas where my translation is far from perfect:”
Perfection is never possible but perhaps you also never perceived the purpose of the comment and how, including to whom, comprehension would be aided.
You possibly also did not consider a related but spatially distinct comment in the same thread namely:
“OlyaPola on August 21, 2020 · at 8:57 am EST/EDT
(Translated from Belarusian by Engländer)
Who translated it into Belarusian and why Belarusian ?”
“I did struggle with 8. У культурніцкай сфэры, because культурніцкі may be the equivalent of Russian культурнический rather than культурный, and I freely admit that I don’t really know what культурнический means. I think it has more to do with education than just culture,..”
You did recognise the disparity in register in 8 but then you obfuscated your own recognition by the continuation of your sentence “..but you’d be hard-pressed to come up with a good English equivalent.” predicated on a belief/notion that all potential audiences are dependent upon English, instead of some being so dependent.
You did recognise the disparity in register but understandably you did not recognise the register used and likely connotations derived therefrom, although you did speculate ” I think it has more to do with education than just culture” thereby positing a hypothesis that others can test.
The above may appear obscure and ultra vires in respect of your purpose, but I would suggest that not everyone has the same purpose, although the opponents wish to emphasise that they do – its human nature – including but not limited to “We the people hold these truths to be self-evident” and the oxymoron “representative democracy”.
“The reason why no. 3 is missing is because of what I think must be a typo in the original: immediately after the measures listed under heading 1. “У палітычнай сферы:” it had “2. Забарона на продаж расейскім кампаніям аб’ектаў беларускай інфраструктуры.” which seemed to me to fit under heading number 1. as a political measure, rather than as a separate heading.”
It may not be your experience but in some relations doubt is acknowledged and embraced whilst speculation – bridging doubt by belief to attain certainty – is never a resort.
In other relations enmazed in the can do/must do conflation, such practices are often avoided.
Who was on 3rd base ?
That is subject to various interpretations not restricted to nor wholly reliant upon “language” including – which version?
Thank you for your honesty and rigour in aiding comprehension.
Engländer, thank you for translating.
… Because I am an old fart, and only recently became curious about what is going on, and because I got poor marks in language classes fifty years ago in school, I must rely on others who can read these languages.
And after watching the BBC brazenly pirate video from Graham Phillips, and relabel it “Russian aggression”, and other “small attribution errors” all over the middle east and eastern Europe, I have come to realize that not everything written about Russia is true. . . In fact, almost none of it is.
So again, thanks for the translation effort.
With which money do they intend to do it?A pure joke.
By selling off their country to Wall Street, obviously.
Why would WS want to buy it??? What is in there for them?
When they just conjure money out of thin air, nothing is too expensive; they would get something for nothing. Looks like a good deal to me…
“Diversification of energy supplies, lowering Russia’s share as a supplier of energy to Belarus to 50% of the total volume of energy imports.”
So they want to import US LNG that costs more and requires expensive new infrastructure?? As for their 50% target, even rabidly anti- Russian Poland only manages about 10%.
I actually feel better about Belarus after reading this. I don’t see anybody falling for this deluded claptrap.
I think it likely that this has nothing to do with ‘falling for this claptrap’. This is what the beast intends to force on Belarus. Like every other western project, there is no choice for the local victim.
It is clearly foreign interference. The people have no idea what all of this mean. Of course, they have been kept in the dark on the truth about the real economic situation of Belarus.
Simply a plan to descend into irrelevance. Perhaps just become a backward province of Poland. Pathetic.
The fourth not the third WW is coming,very interesting but in French for our FR readers.
Troubles in sight: the United States will “try at all costs to maintain their domination”
What are the consequences of the questioning of American supremacy? According to Michel Geoffroy, author of “The New War of the Worlds”, it would be a Fourth World War. Sputnik questioned him.
Regime change, economic embargo, extraterritoriality of American law: the United States aggressively uses all levers, whether in Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, Russia and even with its European allies. Yet, according to essayist Michel Geoffroy, they “cannot win” in the long term in the face of the rise of China, Russia and India.
Michel Geoffroy is not gentle with the United States, which he sees as a source of generalized chaos and messianic arbitrariness. He is the author of The New War of the Worlds (Ed. Via Romana, 2020), which describes a scenario of “World War Four”, a new clash of civilizations between the declining West and the rest of the world. Sputnik questioned him.
From the hyperpower to the multipolar world
For the former senior official, the world has entered a fourth world war, with the cold war being the third. He underlines the very short period of time on a historical scale during which Washington has invested itself in this role of hyperpower, capable of imposing its international order, in the words of Hubert Védrine, former French minister of Foreign Affairs.
“This period of hyperpower came to an end in 2001, with the attacks of September 11 which showed the extreme fragility of the American system. And especially since other [powers, note] were emerging and challenging the Western claim to dominate the world. ”
For many years, the West “ruled the world because they have accumulated a number of key strategic advantages”, be they economic, military, demographic, scientific and even moral. Advantages on the way to disappear, according to Michel Geoffroy.
First, they had what he calls the “monopoly of force”, that is, the military, the space, where both Chinese and Russians are now largely competitive. Second, the “monopoly of knowledge”, because “educational systems are collapsing in Western countries”, we see it every year in the famous Pisa ranking. Third, it evokes the demography which is stagnating, even aging in Europe and North America. And finally, the economic factor. Of course, the United States remains the world’s leading economic power … but for how long? Hit hard by the pandemic, Chinese GDP nevertheless increased by 3.2% in the second quarter. That of the United States collapsed 32.9%. In this time of the coronavirus, it seems that the geopolitical balance of power between the West and the emerging powers has rebalanced.
“When I was young, we used to do quests back in the 1960s to help little Chinese who were dying of hunger. Now it’s China sending us the medical supplies that we don’t have. ”
Quoting in turn the great American thinkers from Fukuyama to Brezinski, Michel Geoffroy believes that the United States will “try at all costs to maintain their domination”…
America was built on the messianic idea. It’s her ‘raison d’être’. Abandoning it would mean its disappearance.
”/…/ the great American thinkers from Fukuyama to Brzezinski”
Haha. And please don’t forget George W. Bush while we’re on the subject:
That’s what I call clear, razor-sharp, great thinking!
“in the famous Pisa ranking”. US education has been destroyed long time ago, way before PISA was invented. PISA is weak attempt to hide the fact that USA/UK/Canada and the rest of G7 all have garbage education. Science? Math? You must be kidding.
PISA is strongly biased against non-western systems. PISA is based on lowest common denominator of knowledge, based on western education premisses. I know that from the first hand – I see PISA tests and results before they are administered and published, due to my job. Here is ranking of countries for 2018:
Canada is in position 8, in group 500+. They must be kidding. And Russia is in group 450-500, way behind Canada and USA! Out of all eastern european former comunists countries, Poland and Slovenia fared way better than Chech Republic, or Croatia? United Kingdom almost equal to Slovenia? Israel way below all of the above?
For Canada and USA I know for sure how bad they are in Math and Science. For last 25 years, Canadian math scores are going down, data from 1997 till today, every year results are worse then the year before. Kids who knew nothing about math in 1997/98/99/2000 are teachers today.
PISA tests are built around smallest common denominator. If you ask 1000 students to jump as high as 1 foot, they will almost all do it. If 200 of them are professional athletes, those will be invisible. Thay can jump perhaps 5 feet, since we asked everybody to jump just 1 foot, it is hard to see the difference between quality and junk.
Eastern block countries based their education systems on Soviet model, just as today’s Russia does. It turns that education system is the most difficult to destroy by globalization. hence, eastern block countries still have good education systems, even after years of westernization. They are still very good. However, Polansd is hardly teh best of eastern block countries. Yugoslavia was not exactly eastern block, but close to them, and Slovenia definitevly was not the best and brightest of Yugoslavian republics. Serbia, Bosnia, Croatia and then the rest.
PISA should not be used as a measuring stick. No way. However, we don’t need PISA to see the state of education in G7. just another hoax, like USA unemployment or GDP, based on value generated by lawyers suing lawyers.
Thanks for the translation . So do these folks figure that the existing State apparatus in Bylarus will magically just “wither away”? What are Local forms of energy–like wood burning stoves? and alternate forms of energy? Just take a look a what is happening in California which is in energy emergency just because it did just that. Heck and we don’t even have bad winters to deal with. Sounds like a black marketeers’ paradise.
And the core of their new army will consist of mercenaries, basically in order to keep everyone in line and to actually do the fighting since 6 months is not enough time for a draftee to learn how to do it effectively. You are worried about having your armed forces involved in foreign adventures and you want to join NATO? Hello? Where exactly have you been for the last 20 years? Oh yes, plugging your ears against those pesky Russian sources of truth. Gotcha.
A Public Coordinating Council is to enforce the double speak necessary to keep anyone living in such a Belarus from the danger of dying of laughter . Hmmm. What were in the cookies Victoria Nuland must have been eating when she wrote this document?
Big difference between Ukraine playbook and the Belarusian: The Belarus army is not pay rolled by the CIA.
Very well said. This is exactly what I think, except that I believe it is not the people’s idea — the script was written abroad.
This was almost certainly written in Washington-Warsaw-and Kiev.And then handed over to the Belarusians. If that doesn’t stir the Russians and Belarusians,then nothing will.
If they want all that, or pretend to, at least they have made it clear. What have Russia and/or the Belarus government done that is comparable? Have Russia and/or the Belarus government said what exactly they are offering, and if it’s integration (annexation), how that will be managed and what the terms of the deal will be for Belarusians? Have they made any proactive moves at all? Any? In the information war Russia, as usual, has already lost.
“Russian soft power” is a joke. The USSR had one hell of a lot of soft power. I remember the easy availability of magazines like Sputnik, Soviet Woman, Sports In The USSR, the Russian films on Indian television (I watched Ballad Of A Soldier, Battleship Potemkin, Moscow Does Not Believe In Tears, An Office Affair, and The Irony Of Fate on Indian TV in the 80s as I recall), the books from Mezhdunarodnaya Kniga, cheap and well translated and printed (I still have Turgenev, Sholokhov, and others) and the feeling that the USSR was a friend and protector come what may. Russia? Russia has not even the pretence of soft power. How’s it supposed to buy loyalty and friendship? How is it supposed to compete with the American Empire and its EU vassals? By just repeating the truth? That’s a laugh.
Russia used to be ”Holy Russia”, with millions of righteous right-believing folk, the good Christian people; ”Khrestany”. She was Good, but Tsar Alexei and especially his son Tsar Peter , wanted her to be Great, and so they tried to model her after the West. For centuries.
I don’t think that Russia will be modeling herself after the West after all this.
Right, I call Peter I the Far From Great.
Little question: were it not for Peter I, then would Russia have been able to fend off Hitler and Napoleon as she did? If I’m not mistaken, one reason Peter I ‘Westernized’ Russia was to better prepare her military for any attacks from Western powers. This was also said to be why Japan did the same.
Well, okay. But at the same time I can’t imagine what life would be like without Peter’s contributions to Russian society such as the decimal ruble-kopek system and Latin-like ‘civil script’ (it’s why e.g. the Cyrillic Я resembles a Latin R), to say nothing of the adoption of Arabic numerals and the Julian calendar, all of which are to some degree taken for granted today.
Russia was meant to go through these times. But to survive them, she must go back to what she was in her spiritual essence. That doesn’t mean back to the 1600’s, but back to Orthodoxy not only with her lips but her heart also.
Fair enough. I wasn’t sure whether to respond to your comment or to Biswapriya’s, but I see what you mean.
You missed “Krokodil”. It looks that you haven’t missed what’s now ‘Krokodil’ in Russia.
Dear Biswapriya, as a Finn, I understand you so well. I´m also old, and I remember times when Finland was under the sphere of influence of Soviet Union.Those times were so good, and it makes me cry, when I see this western cancer destroying everything dear to me. It´s getting worse and worse, living in todays Finland is not far from a nightmare coming true.
You are so right in what you write in your above comments. Russia must take a different stance, not only because of Mother Russia herself, also because of countries bordering Russia. Sometimes I have a feeling that Russia doesn´t fully understand her responsibility – and leaders of Russia don´t see the evilness of the liberal word order. For some strange reasons, Russia has very unique role in this world, a sort of a balancer – and whatever some think about it – a protector of small nations. As opposite to West, which is the destroyer of nations.
Perhaps, Russia wants to avoid a hot war as the ‘west’ would certainly attack her if Russia was to be more proactive. And as to the past, it does not only apply to Finland but probably to the whole of the Third World, too, as we had our dreams of one day overcome imperialism… The Soviet Union was our model.
“The USSR had one hell of a lot of soft power.” That could be in part due to who was ruling india back then. nehru? Indira Gandi? It all depends on rulesr and elite. If rulers and elite prefer USA, the soft power will come from USA. Russia has lots of soft power in Serbia. In particular, connections in education and science have been growing stronger and stronger, since 2012 or so.There is a high school in Belgrade, open for all students from serbia, adminsitered and run by Russians, “School named by Valentina Teryeshkova”. There are science camps for students grades 8-12, run by Serbian professors, Russians, even some from England. Culturalexchange is very strong, below the radar of MSM. Russian films can still be seen on TV, at least some chanells. I better shut up, otherwise Johnny may be back :-)
This is very sad, an unfortunate, another mess brewing in this part of the world.
But did anyone ask a fundamental questions – there must be something wrong that Russia has been doing for ages, otherwise how do you explain, that all post-soviets blocks wanted out, and nevel look back to Russia, and now even Belarus.
If the things goes on this line, the Russia might loose Caucasus and Far East in a future.
The Russian’s Muslim time bomb will eventually ignite, I am quite sure about this.
I have no interest in Russia, other than balancing force, hopefully China will hold on, and will cut the neck of Global Government.
If the ‘Muslim time bomb’ will eventually ignite, it will have the same treatment like Chechnya. Russians have more bombs.
western obsession with consumerism and materialism. Spiritually dead degenerate obsession with pleasure, lack of commitment to state or country, this is how they create slaves who prefer starbucks, iphones and netflix to being an active living member of a committed society. People, especially the young, fall for the hollywood BS and believe it to be true. Fostering a complete disconnection from reality (we can say how that is now playing out with western elites who have fallen into their own trap) This will only end in two ways, war – which the west don’t want because they know they will lose or the collapse of the dollar and US society as a whole, which comes first? Putin is playing for time but events will move swiflty once a collapse gets a hold. The game at the moment is death by a thousand cuts via the neocons that proliferate in the white house and already have connections with the Biden team, the likes of Kagan and Nuland on the prowl. Russia cannot afford to be weak.
What’s another 10 million refugees in Europe.If belorusians dont feel Russian just deport the lot.
Just like Latvia,Lithuania,Estonia,all about blocking Russia.
People need to educate them selfs or risk Ukraine.
Shame,you can’t fix stupid.
Victoria, is that you?
Where are my cookies?
“Where are my cookies?”
There were no cookies, only plain bulka – not even ones with soft cheese and/or raisins on top – the billions were likely used elsewhere, and then being “culturally sensitive” madam tried to hand out salt from a container, but as you might know “Independence Square” in February can be windy and the salt blew away.
Just wanted to explain something to those who do not fully understand why former soviet republics behave the way they do towards Russia. First of all, lets clarify the great soviet empire, USSR – over a dozen republics (fat little piglets) greedily suckling Mother Russia, the emanciated sow. That comparisson by Dmitry Orlov is priceless! That’s EXACTLY how it was. The break up of USSR was traumatic in human terms as lots of Russians suddenly found themselves in “foreign” countries, but for Russia it was at last the chance to shake off all these piglets and for once start looking after itself. Hence the great progress seen for the last two decades. As for these former republics, well they got their sovereignities but the gravy train was gone. Lots of them could not survive economically or politically and ran to the West to look for replacement teet. That came at the price. That price was Russophobia, in which they all willingly participated because they were getting something for it. Russia is not interested in feeding them anymore. As you would with ungrateful swines. Hopefully this explains a lot to those who wonder why? It’s quite simple really – greed for money and power among puppets West installs there. Clear now?
This is less than true. The majority of the Soviet republics voted to remain in the USSR in early 1991. As did Russia. The idea that Russia was “feeding the other republics” was always dangerous naivété. From “feeding the other republics” it’s only a small step to “feeding the Caucasus”, for instance, so let’s get rid of Chechnya. (Ironically, Russia *is* now feeding Chechnya, with 80% of Chechen income being provided by Moscow.) The only thing that the break up of the USSR did was bleed Russia dry.
As to one important reason for anti Russian feeling in the ex Soviet republics: it is always the fact that any disintegration of a multi ethnic nation that empowers a hitherto relatively powerless group immediately raises its appetite to retain that power and the fear that the former “occupier” will return as soon as it regains its strength. It’s a very easy system to manipulate by imperial Western propaganda.
What comes to Finland, during the soviet times, Finland wasn´t a “fat little piglet greedily suckling Mother Russia”. Absolutely not. Relationship between Soviet Union and Finland was definitely a win-win situation for both. We sold our products to Soviet Union, and Soviet Union didn´t have to worry about unstable north-west border, our common border is roughly 1 340 km. Relationship worked really well until the collapse of Soviet Union.
I think that your comment is a bit inaccurate and simplified view, even though there might be some truth in it. Possibly situation today resembles what you write, some countries clearly try to blackmail Russia, and maybe that reflects also to what Dmitri Orlov has written about the topic.
“Lots of them could not survive economically or politically and ran to the West to look for replacement teet. That came at the price. That price was Russophobia.”
That´s true and exactly what happened also to Finland. And the price is getting higher and higher.
I hope that what I´ve written here, sheds light also to this Putins comment, from 2005:
Thank you Katerina for this great explanation!
Russians thought that they are feeding the republics and that ended with the break of USSR, If Russians continue to think along the same line it will disapear totally.
…very nice, but…
On Android 10, Google Chrome refuses to translate, while Firefox had a spectacular crash that had to restart my mob.
This very long wishlist of the Belarusian regime changers is comical and has about as much reality as writing a letter to Santa Claus.
In interest of brevity, let me more succinctly summarize the Regime Changers’ most fervent desire:
-To become a model Western democracy and showcase of economic prosperity like the country formerly known as “Ukraine.”
It is unfortunate that Putin was so quick to congratulate Lukashenko. By doing so he has tied Russia with Lukashenko and in doing so the West was left with a huge opportunity to make the point of difference by going against him.
People are sick of these self appointed dictators that want to hang on to power forever, by any means. The world has moved on over the last 100 years and Russia (Putin ) needs to realize this.
Given the choice of Lukashenko/ Russia or the West with this ideology, many many people are going to chose the west, even if it only a hope freedom. A choice for right or wrong. They have none now.
Lukashenko may survive at the moment but the dye is now set, This new generation will remember this day as a betrayal by Russia and therefor the turn towards the West will continue until it is complete.
Unless of course the West collapses financially and Russia does not being almost entirely debt free?
Err…..no one has come up with any proof that the election was fixed…..so any delay in recognition by V V Putin (which is validated by the various treaties)would have only encouraged the opposition….. and undermined Lukashenko. Conversely there seems to be no public reveal of how the election was run organised overseen.. counted etc……
It’s interesting you say this. I see the opposite happening. I see the governments of the world transitioning to more traditional forms of governance. I don’t think it’s far fetched to say that we, or at least our children will see some Autocrats or Monarchs spring up out of the chaos. I don’t think it’s far fetched either to say that the people will demand it.
You might sneer at the thought because you’ve been taught that your opinion matters, or that your vote matters; but you’re just a means to an end. The individual is an easily manipulated tool used by those with the power to do so to achieve the goals they want. All the while believing that they are free.
Yes, anonymus, with a statement like this, it is difficult to believe that the majority of the people would support it. However, it is hard to swallow the return of Monarchs/Autocrats. There must be a better solution…
A SITREP and policy advice for Belarus written by the CIA-fed zombies in Nulandistan.
Just think, Belorussians, you too can live in a collapsed, dying burnt-out state selling not merely your crops but the topsoil they grow in as you watch your population collapse by 35% in five years.
Worse than the damage from any war.
Your women can become whores and toilet cleaners in Nazi Europe and your men can die off from drugs and drink.
The perpetual promise of the West is Democracy … but not for you, only for them and their elites. What you get is slavery and death.
This is a short comment to someone ( seems to be Indian) who disagreed with my assessment re: USSR.
I will do it in bullet points:
I am Russian and lived in Soviet Union.
The break up of USSR was not done by VOTING.
The Caucasus was liberated from Ottoman Empire by Imperial Russia and since then has ALWAYS been part of Russia, including Chechnia.
Belarus is by the way also part of Russia and should simply become one of the Russian provences as per signed Union Agreement. Lukashenko overplayed his hand in his Russophobia stint and now begging Russian President to save his hide. From now on he will be obediently doing what VVP will be telling him. Hopefully there will not be some snipers appering in Minsk at the next public protest demonstation…
Of course the breakup (murder) of the USSR was not done by voting. It was done against the express wishes of the majority of the Soviet people who voted to preserve the union. I fail to see your point about Chechnya; if it was part of Russia so were Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan or Azerbaijan, pre USSR. If you permit balkanisation at any level total disintegration of the country is nearly impossible to prevent (look at Yugoslavia as proof).
”The main threats to national security are caused by the growth of the Kremlin’s aggressive foreign policy, Belarus’ participation in post-Soviet integrationist projects under the auspices of Russia, the domination of Russian media in the information space, and a low level of national consciousness among Belarusians.”
The ”opposition’s” preposterous language notwithstanding, it actually explains — correctly — the ongoing failure of the attempted colour revolution stunt in Belarus. I would never have imagined that the Saker’s commentariat would be the most convinced of its imminent, total victory. At the risk of riling people up here, I can’t resist the temptation to provide a modified version of the joke about the Master and the Servile Lackey where the order Jump! elicits the answer How high?. Here, the Zionazis yell Despair!, and triumphantly receive the answer How deep? and not tongue-in-cheek.
Belarus could well turn out to be the pivot where the final rout of the Empire begins. Lukashenko, assisted by Russia/Moscow/The Kremlin/Putin, has learned the lesson well. If the Zionazis believe that the utter nobody Navalny’s misfortunes with his Western Masters were to make any difference, fine with me.
Thank you Englander for having the patience to translate the whole thing. Though, I only read a little bit of it to know b.s. dressed up like gold.
It is the b.s. that cannot be detected at first glance that is dangerous, not this kind.
Don’t know how many will fall for this. Knowing how stupid people can be, it will be a lot. And I would be happy to be proven wrong.
Yes, it is all fantasy… The worse part is about joining NATO. How could the ‘opposition’ be so stupid? So sad… Russia must do something to avoid the collapse of Belarus, as they have asked for help.
Clearly the Belarussan peoples have just voted against this .
Let’s suppose that Belarus exited Eurasian union & moved towards EU
Then the Belarusian economy will surely collapse.
Firstly, with privatisation of state owned factories & industries, thousands of employees will become redundant / unemployed.
Belarus would suffer from depopulation & de-industrialisation as these industries depend on state subsidies, protectionism & preferential export status into Russia & Eurasian Union markets
Secondly, Belarus would not be able to export its products to EU markets or successfully compete as these markets are dominated by western multinational corporations (German, French, Italian Dutch etc). On the other hand, Belarus would be flooded with western products / brands who will dominate Belarusian market.
Thirdly, Belarus exports it’s products to Russia & post Soviet markers, and will lost income from these traditional markets.
This reads like a badly written infomercial, laden with regurgitated talking points. This was about as compelling as the canned recordings of the DNC. Why can’t our technocratic elites recognize how pathetically their empty promises come across to the deplorable classes? Will they ever realize that repeating the same worn-out truisms on loud speaker is simply causing ever greater numbers of readers to disengage from their meme factory? At this point I could easily imagine this kind of loyal parroting being a parody piece. It should certainly be funded and encouraged by Putin as it is sure to draw more people off the fence towards unification with Russia.
I was nearly asphyxiating from laughter when I discovered the thread in the ”Watch list” section: A single photo which says it all. The patriotic people of Belarus should be huckstering cakes en masse for a resounding welcome of the ”opposition’s philosopher du jour”, LOL!
Or should I, like quite a few others here, descend into despair given the invincibility of this copious ”opposition” ?
Hahaha… Funded by Putin? I doubt. Too risky. This is the truth — the people are being directed in the wrong direction by a seld-appointed leadership support by foreign forces. This seems obvious, and this ‘declaration’ just reinforces this view..
Comment on the “balkanisation of the country” expressed by one of the commenters. Russia as a country has never been balkanised in any shape or form. The USSR, on the other hand, was broken up into separate states which until then had only nominal borders, which suddenly became hard borders, trapping some historically Russian land within these borders. What Russia is doing now is gathering these lands back into fold, starting with Crimea and what is now called Donbass (Malorussia) is being absorbed back de-facto. With Belarus they might take back very large Eastern (historically Russian) part only, as the Western part has been under Polish occupation (very much like in Western Ukraine), which there had not just Polish occupation but also others. People living there generally do not feel very close ties to Mother Russia, so they are not needed. Ukraine, as a country did not exist until after the Revolution and was created by Bolsheviks. It is a totally artificial construct. Georgia, on the other hand, was part of Imperial Russia and here is a good example of this ingratitude I have mentioned earlier. Back in 18th century the delegation from that region arrived in Russia to beg Russian Tzar Alexander to make them part of Imperial Russia to save them from total annihilation by the Ottomans. They were taking in and lots of Russian lives were lost to defend them against turks. After break up, Georgia was one of the first (after Baltic little prosti.. sorry statelets) to go over to “dark side” and rabid Russophobia florished. How is that for a thank you for being saved as a country? Russia has broken all contacts with them. Their economy since has gone down the drain, population dwindled and all they are now good for, is for their Western curators, like CIA, is a place to build biolabs. In Soviet times the region was thriving, supplying Russia with tea, wines, fruits, etc. Tourism from Russia was also thriving. They have lost all that now. Well, that’s the price you pay..
“Stans” were mostly add – ons, also pretty much after Revolution. I hope that this, to some degree, explains briefly the situation to those who are unfamiliar with ImperialRussia/USSR/Russia history and the former republics. I see lots of ignorance on the subject among some commenters, so this is done in good faith and with aim to help.
Why don’t you reply to me directly? Why do I have to scroll through responses to find you? Everyone knows you’re talking to me.
If by Russia we include Tsarist Russia, which incidentally had the same flag and the same Orthodox Church affiliation of Russia today, then not only has Russia been balkanised, it’s a middling miracle that any of it survived at all. To this day it is paying through its nose to keep Ramzan Kadyrov happy so Chechnya doesn’t attempt to break away again. We all remember how close it was to bring allowed to secede in 1996, and it might have, too, had Khattab and Basayev not got delusions of grandeur, bombed Moscow, and invaded Daghestan as well.
Definitely a miracle. The whole period from 1904 to today could bear comparison to the Russian ”Time of Troubles” or the Mongol Yoke.
Destroy Russia sufficiently and the West is open to the East for conquest, and vice versa.
(Translated from Belarusian by Engländer)
Who translated it into Belarusian and why Belarusian ?
The whole “reanimation project” seems to come from a site, zabelarus.com, which is no longer accessible (you get an “Error establishing a database connection” message). However, the original contents of the site was cached by Google, and it had various subsections outlining policy in the areas of Economics, Healthcare, the Justice System etc., see http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://zabelarus.com/ru.
Most of the site was in Belarusian and Russian, but the “National Security” section for some reason seems to only have been available in Belarusian (perhaps I was just too stupid or lazy to find the Russian version, but I couldn’t find it nevertheless). This may have been because it was the “National Security” section, and they thought that having their strategy widely accessible in Russian would be a silly thing to do, but various Russian sources have reported on it anyway. A lot of the Belarusian opposition strongly promotes Belarusian language (i.e. the Belsat TV network), and this would only be encouraged by the West as a way to weaken its ties to Russia, so it’s hardly surprising that opposition documents would be written in Belarusian.
“so it’s hardly surprising that opposition documents would be written in Belarusian.”
You are speculating again in emulation, illuminating your assay of immersion.
Why not test hypotheses derived from an observation that – “It’s hardly surprising that one version of the opponents’ document was attempted to be written in Belarusian, and that such attempt emulating snails would leave trails” ?
” This may have been because it was the “National Security” section, and they thought that having their strategy widely accessible in Russian would be a silly thing to do, but various Russian sources have reported on it anyway.”
The silliness was not restricted to notions of accessibility in emulation of a certain “Lebanese” who thought that “America” should know that resistance controls Western Asia, in emulation of MIR and Los Tupomaros’ complicity in facilitating the Condor projects – or some boys seeking to convince themselves that others are impressed by the size of their appendices.
“(you get an “Error establishing a database connection” message).”
Not everyone does, although it is recognised that broadcasts are not restricted to an “audience” of one.
Some in a banya setting have posited the usefulness of what others are engaged in the toilet, whilst others include investigations of diet.
Perhaps of interest; a limited example.
which includes various negative assumptions including, but not limited to. that the negative assumptions of others are always disadvantageous without illuminating to whom – a derivative of the papa czar notion that “If only the czar knew, everything would be different”, a hypothesis tested in St. Petersburg on Sunday 22nd of January 1905 (old calendar), facilitating difference, but not the difference expected by the czar.
“Why not test hypotheses derived from an observation that – “It’s hardly surprising that one version of the opponents’ document was attempted to be written in Belarusian, and that such attempt emulating snails would leave trails” ?”
Since brave people change their minds……..
…..whilst frightened people seek to rely on “certainty/we-the-people-hold-these-truths-to-be-selfevidentness/human nature/and/or anything-that-some-may-believeness”.
In short: This is a program for an Ukraine 2.0
This surely cannot have it’s origin from Belarus. This list of demands sounds much more like it came from the mouth of someone like Pompeo or Bolton or Neuland or Esper or any of their gang.
With this disgusting list of demands, they may as well have left their business card. Those who have been inserted and are steering this revolt can’t be a large number. They need to be identified and arrested.
The list reminds me of the Austro-Hungarian/Vatican demands made upon Serbia in 1914 after Gavrilo Princip shot the Archduke Ferdinand. They are demands made to be rejected.
Says it is all part of the plan for opposition to lay out their fantasies in all their naivities….so the majority(whom the opposition claims is theirs) realise what road they are being led down to the cliff edge at the end……
Interesting to note that there is a quarrel brewing between Macron and Merkel plus the EU Commission over any further enlargement of the EU. Macron has put down his marker against any further expansion but Frau Merkel together with the Commission are pushing for the entrance of Albania and North Macedonia. It is difficult to gauge what these insignificant Balkan mini-states can bring to the Union – other than a great deal of problems. It will be interesting to see how this goes down with the German people.
It seems that the EU has become some sort of registered charity in the eyes of the Brussels bureaucracy. It exists in order to expands, abolishing borders in Europe so that more illiterate social security claimants from hither and yon will be free to enter. But of course that’s the plan, courtesy of Mr Soros et. al. Free movement of labour, capital and commodities in order to undermine the conditions of work and lives for western europeans. Of course the long-term goal is the destruction of sovereignty and nationhood and the creation of a mongrelised peasantry serving as the second tier in the Zionist-Empire. A peasantry with no nation, no language, no culture, no history and ruled over by a technocratic elite ensconced in their ivory towers in Brussels and taking their orders from the top-tier masters in Washington.
Welcome to the New Brave World.
Wonderful list. No problem whatsoever making them all reality. Very funny!
It’s not over yet.
I was one of the comments who predicted the collapse of Belarus as Russian ally. I appreciate there’s been a fightback by the Lukashenko govt.
But its not over by a long shot. Remember the empire/nato has vast experience and resources to bring about the change it wants. Trigger events.
Nato would welcome civil conflict because it would put Russia in a difficult position, and would help them demonize Putin even more (Nord Stream2 is at stake, the covid vaccine, now the navalny scandal and potential rear action in Ukraine). Tie the Russians down, isolate them, and stir up more trouble in Syria and Iran.
Hope Belarus can stay calm.
Lukashenko should remove And purge all pro-western people from the government and security services such as Foreign minister Makei.
Will he do this, it is big question
I think that Lukashenko cannot be trusted. He is moving toward Russia now because he is in trouble.
And if he feels himself strong again he will continue his old opportunistic politics sitting on two or more chairs
So, again, he cannot be trusted and Russia should not count on him even in short term
The ultimate goal is destruction of Russia. Land and resources takeover. Things are going slowly but it will happen sooner or later. Slavic people are too naive I think and there’s no real unity among them
Slavs and all East-Europeans have always had inferiority complex toward west and Germans and Anglosaxons especially.
Even Russians are not completely immune of that complex
Ukraine 2.0. With the same end result. Misery for Belarus and its citizens.
Reading really long time posts here every day.
Would like to ask a question:
What is the opinion about Hungary?
Population actually more or less Russian friendly (well, at least more realistic)
-Russian DNA is all mixed but big part of the ancientt stock is coming from another finno -ugrik and other tribes populated the land between the Alps and the Ural.
-Around the time the Kievan Rus had formed we had strong and very important relationship.(since the Nestor chronicles we know and still called Ugor Mountains for a reason. ) Vareg Slavic Vikings were part of the the Hungarian tribes ( also part of the royal gurads) and settled in the western part of today’s Hungary. the trust was so high that the ancient Hungarian runic history had been sent to Kiev for safe keeping 1100 years ago. Mongol horses and the ottomans wrecked both nations although Hungary got it worst especially as the once the strongest military (Mathias’ black army ) and the richest ( during the medical ages 90% of Europe’s and like 80% of the world’s gold production came from the Hungarian kingdom got smashed and ethnically almost wiped out between the ottomans and the holy romans playing good old games.
-because of the lost independence (Habsburg rule) we got into first world war and because of that and the French and UK engineered central European collapse and artificial new borders which meant that all the countries in this part of the world would constantly look for some foreign strong power to guarantee that all this creation lives on (Czechoslovakia- Yugoslavia all this is gone, though.
1849 and 1956 was hard on us from the Czar/Soviet military but as my grandfather used to say ( surviving on frozen cabbages in the gulag inside the Arctic circle for a few fun years) that the Russian people are nice just the system is evil.
With this background what I wanted to say that if people are really serious about wining the game might need to change the narrative. There is no black and white and in 4 d chess you also need to consider time as well (that’s the 4th dimension) if you look things like that you understand for example Viktor Orban’s policies and why Hungarians are friendly and trying to be realistic with Russia as well (like cia instigated 56 where we got sold off for cheap)
Changing the narrative would be to start to check history and try to fix up wrongs of the past and to show another way of cooperation.
Gas pipes with Germany (helping economic development/and building on each other’s strengths) in central Europe need to give something to Poland as they are the v4 leading ship. (Historical Poland got wronged many times maybe something can be done to ease the pain) Sun tzu style changing the game from domino to chess or even changing the whole game board.
“even changing the whole game board.”
Or even not playing games and/or using boards/playbooks ?
Tsun Tsu lived a long time ago and didn’t rely on “devotional” works.
“(Historical Poland got wronged many times..) ” and was complicit in such facilitation, in some regards continuing to emulate previous complicities to obfuscate them, including but not limited to Teschen October 1938, and that the Russian Federation is “the Soviet Union”.
Certainly Sun Tzu was playing 棋 (Mandarin: wéiqí), which literally means “encirclement board game” or “board game of surrounding”, which is to chess what chess is to Monopoly. In China weiqi was considered one of the four cultivated arts of the Chinese scholar gentleman, along with calligraphy, painting and playing the musical instrument guqin.
“What is the opinion about Hungary?”
Testing hypotheses suggests that presently it borders on Austria, Poland, and Romania and lack of denominators continue to facilitate transcendence.
Finland has never been part of USSR, just a very good neighborour.
This is a Latin period meaning “and the gates of hell shall not prevail over you”.
Jesus grant us that the hell finally will fail, but means it will appear as the winner… near until the end
Engländer thanks for the translation. It would be a great document to understand the true nature of US-EU stooges in Belarusian opposition. But I’m just wondering who exactly stands for this program? I’ve searched Belarusian link you put, still don’t understand which party/group support this program. Though I’m 100% sure that all Belarusian oligarchic oppositions blatantly/covertly support this program. I just want to be specific.
“I’ve searched Belarusian link you put, still don’t understand which party/group support this program.”
Why did you think you would understand, and that adopting such methods would facilitate your understanding?
Predicating hypotheses on assumptions is generally of limited utility and often best avoided.
“I’m 100% sure….”
Certainty facilitates iterations of enmazement in such practice further limiting utility except to others,
“I just want….”
further increased by “wants” immersed in “expectations that wants can be satisfied” including but not limited to prejudgements/prejudice that
“It would be a great document to understand the true nature of US-EU stooges in Belarusian opposition”
reacting, as Mr. Guy Debord characterised as, to the spectacle – or as others may suggest, like Mr. Pavlov’s dogs to stimulation.
The framing/ title of this thread “…the real goals…” is predicated on emulating the immersive practices above including by the framing of “real goals” encouraging at least in some the conflation of goals/purposes, thereby obfuscating facility, enhanced through the attempt/achievement conflation predicated on sole/prime agency and/or exceptionalism of others.
Such encouragement has facilitated and formed/forms part of the tactics perceived by some as having utility in achievement of the opponents’ wishes/hopes to maintain the status quo, if neccesitated in modulated forms, since the opponents are often blowing bubbles, “informed” by Mr. Rove’s observation that “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you should concentrate on.”.
Experience suggests that it is unwise to dismiss the opportunism of the opponents which they attempt to obfuscate by blowing bubbles.
Belarus’ exports to the EU are mainly wood, mineral fuels and base metals
Not exactly going to have full-employment with that mix. Belarus has nothing to gain from EU since Poland is the biggest recipient of EU Aid. Whether Lukashenko is time-expired is a different question.
The buffer states Stalin put in place between Russian heartlands and Western military bases – and which Gorbachev gave up trusting the US – are essential to stability in Europe. NATO moved its eastern border too far from Oder-Neisse and EU has simply swallowed corrupt states on the Black Sea and sucked them dry of skilled doctors and personnel. That is all that will happen with Belarus.
The EU is going to implode anyway once UK breaks free and German exports crater. There are too many dreamers who think “The West” is munificent and welcoming. Ukraine was sold that bill of goods.
Russian aggression…? WTF!?
What is happening now, with all these color revolutions around Russia, regional wars.. is the continuation of the collapse of the Russian Empire. Even though the Russian Empire no longer exists, the process of (some times slow, some times faster) disintegration of Russia is continuing. Perhaps this is the second Time of Troubles (smuta).. I don’t know…