by Rostislav Ischenko for Ukraina.ru
Note: this machine translated text
Joseph Biden, the 46th president of the United States, has asked Russian President Vladimir Putin for a meeting for the second time in six months. This would not be surprising: in the end, international tensions have reached a limit, and not only the most alarmist of experts, but also the most cautious of politicians have already started talking about the high probability of war
In such circumstances, responsible leaders of great powers are simply obliged to meet and seek compromises.
But this is the same Biden, whose team cried all the tears over Russian interference in the American elections and twice tried to organize the impeachment of the 45th US President Donald Trump, accusing the latter of surrendering American interests to Russia and working for Putin. Meanwhile, Putin and Trump had only one full-format meeting (in Helsinki, July 16, 2018, a year and a half before the expiration of Trump’s powers), and the rest — about five short conversations “on the sidelines” of various summits.
Relations between Russia and the United States had sunk to the freezing point even before Trump. At the same time, the 45th American president, although he negotiated more harshly, was still much more constructive than the 46th. Trump was inclined to seek a compromise, despite all the contradictions, because only a mutually acceptable compromise can ensure a long and lasting peace.
Biden, in a typical American manner, is trying to deceive a partner in the negotiation process, seeking only a truce – a postponement of confrontation for some time, during which the United States will try to solve its problems in order to take up the old with renewed vigor later.
That is why Biden’s team is begging for meetings with Putin, as if their ancient boss is afraid to die without telling Vladimir Vladimirovich something important. Pay attention to the diplomatic activity of the American president who does not always adequately perceive reality during the first year of his term:
* spring – activation of the US-European Union, an attempt to force the EU to go to a sharp deterioration in relations with Russia and abandon the SP-2;
* summer – a sudden request for a meeting with Putin, insistence on its early organization, declared readiness to resolve the entire spectrum of controversial issues. In fact, absolutely empty and unacceptable hints for Russia about the readiness of the United States not to interfere if the Kremlin decides to restore its exclusive sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space by force, so that, as a reciprocal courtesy, Russia refuses an informal (but very problematic for the United States) alliance with China. The rest of the summer is devoted to spreading disinformation that Moscow is ready to negotiate with the United States at the expense of Beijing;
* autumn — the formation of an anti-Chinese alliance of US vassals in the Asia-Pacific region and part of the European powers, followed by a sharp and persistent desire to organize a personal meeting between Xi Jinping and Biden (the meeting took place, was in vain, after which the United States began spreading disinformation that Beijing is ready to negotiate with Washington at the expense of Moscow);
* winter — against the background of the sharp aggravation of the situation on the borders of Russia and Belarus that began in the autumn and an undisguised attempt to draw Russia into a war with the participation of Eastern European members of NATO and the EU, a new insistence on a personal meeting with Putin.
In my opinion, there is no need to have an outstanding intellect to see the “swing” on which the United States is trying to “rock” Russia and China in order to break their partnership (absolutely nullifying all attempts by the United States to regain the status of a global hegemon) and suppress Moscow and Beijing one by one and one by one. The United States offers everyone something unnecessary, but seriously binding their hands and requiring large resource costs, they try to link everyone with a regional war with their allies (who, however, are not in a hurry to drag chestnuts out of the fire for Washington), they inspire everyone that the partner has almost agreed to the American proposal and we must hurry to negotiate ourselves so as not to be made fools of.
The method is simple, has been used since ancient times and quite often led to success. The United States understands that neither Russia nor China want to win right now and annex the post-Soviet territories in Europe and Taiwan (respectively).
Moscow and Beijing would prefer to solve these problems peacefully and later. At this stage, the too clearly expressed intention to return the fallen imperial territories may not only limit the possibilities of cooperation between Russia and China to resist the military-political and financial-economic pressure of the United States, but also undermine the entire system of Eurasian unions built by them.
Therefore, the United States, in order to persuade Russia and China to make concessions in the negotiations, frighten both of them with an unnecessary regional war, while at the same time offering to negotiate and solve this problem. If someone gives up and starts at least discussing options, Washington will immediately provide a proof leak of information in order to persuade the second partner to make a concession, and then bargain with both from a favorable position to bring down the price.
Realizing all this, the Russian leadership is in no hurry to talk with Biden. Peskov, on behalf of the Kremlin, said that the exact date has not yet been determined. However, the Kremlin has agreed in principle to organize a videoconference before the end of the year. Why did they do that?
Every month (not to mention a year) without war, Russia and China strengthen and weaken the United States. If we hold out for two or three years, the war will become meaningless for the United States, because, by their own admission, after 2024 they do not see the possibility of defeating China militarily. Consequently, in two years, the opportunities for American blackmail will decrease sharply, and America’s allies, who are already unwilling to risk themselves because of the Washington games, will become even more thoughtful, it will be even more difficult to persuade them to demonstrative aggressive actions against Moscow and Beijing. A certain US deadline is approaching, we need to act already. Under these conditions, Washington, having lost hope of achieving its goal by peace, can really bet on provocation of war.
Any negotiations are a way to delay time. While they are preparing and while they are going, it is unprofitable for the United States to be unconstructive, which means they will try to keep their allies on a short leash. But vassal states are not trained dogs that can be set on an object or calmed down in one second, rocking the situation takes time (albeit a little). The solution suggests itself: as long as possible to delay the time in determining the date of negotiations, postponing them for later. As soon as it becomes impossible to pull further – to hold negotiations and try, without giving a single opportunity to interpret their outcome as a willingness to take seriously American proposals for the surrender of an ally, to involve the United States in the preparation of the next meeting by creating permanent expert groups in the areas.
Any diplomatic department is a complex bureaucratic machine that is extremely difficult to force to move simultaneously in two directions. If you give the task to begin diplomatic preparations for war, this apparatus will move in one direction, if you set the task of finding a compromise, then in another. At the same time, it will have a serious informational impact on both the international and domestic agenda. That is, even meaningless, but regular meetings of experts reduce (though not completely remove) the risk of fatal confrontation.
Russia’s actions indicate that the Kremlin clearly sees the threat and has chosen the right tactics. The agreement on the creation of expert groups was reached during the first meeting with Biden, with the organization of which they stretched out as much as they could. However, America countered this agreement by saying that the expert groups did not work. So, now Russian diplomats will point this out and demand more constructive.
The current meeting is also being delayed as much as they can, having already postponed it until the end of December. If it works out, then under the pretext of New Year’s holidays they will postpone it until the middle-end of January (however, this is unlikely, the United States is in a hurry). The current meeting will be held online: the coronavirus. Although he does not interfere with Putin and Biden’s meetings with other politicians, but in this case only online. And not because I don’t want to waste time on flights, knowing in advance that the negotiations will be in vain. The online mode does not allow the organization of fake leaks about the content of negotiations. This is not a face-to-face conversation (in the presence of only unknown and controlled translators, in an office protected from wiretapping) – everything is recorded, and by both sides.
Thus, Russia is trying to win one and a half to two months out of the 48 required. Will it be possible to win the world completely?
This question has no definite answer. On the one hand, time is running out, and with the approach of 2024, the United States has nothing to lose, and in the vassal countries designated by them for slaughter, there are their own war parties that (for personal gain) are ready to start even a losing war that destroys their states. On the other hand, the current authorities, who are now in charge of American consumables, are doing everything possible to get rid of the honorable mission of pointlessly dying for the interests of the United States. How strong will they have enough strength to continue maneuvering on the verge of a foul? How ready are Americans to increase pressure on the dependent elites of limitrophs? Where is the weak link ready to break: in Europe or in Asia and who is it (Ukraine, Taiwan, someone else)? We can only assume with more or less certainty.
Often the expected danger comes at all from where it is not expected or when they stopped waiting and relaxed.
Yes time is longer than twine.Ru and China just got to play for more time-string it along.Have not heard anything on the request of Iran’s position today in Vienna-verifiable total removal of illegal sanctions.The US needs a war, any war- Cuba,Nicaragua and Venezuela-maybe,though not likely.Internal social unrest within the USA,may cause that diversion and be thrst domino.e fi
Ishchenko is excellent at deconstruction. He parses the recent diplomatic moves of Biden’s administration, diplomatic and military, as well as sanctions, as they are directed toward Russia and China.
He sees the “problem” the US faces in holding onto unipolar power is the coordination of Russia and China in their efforts to replace the hegemony of the US/West with a multipolar global leadership. Ukraine and Taiwan are not the problems. Power and primacy are.
The threats of war that run concurrently with diplomacy are necessary to hold the vassals ready to fight in the hegemon’s war should that be the last resort of Biden.
The Russians play for time by talking with the US, in spite of the hybrid war waged by Washington against the Russian Federation.
Ishchenko sees the period from now until 2024 as the only time left for military efforts by the US to hold back China and attempt to break the Double Helix of Russia-China.
The interim peril may come from the vassals, not Biden. Loud noises just may spark the weak-minded into igniting a war. Zelensky, Poland, Lithuania, neocons and nutcases from NATO and UK abound. Any of them might be the spark while Biden stutters, spits and stammers.
We are witnessing a terrible race.
Zone A is whittling as fast as they can at their apple called DISTANCE. They want to approach as close as they can before launching a first strike, and to hearten and reinforce their most anti-Zone B proxies, and to compensate for lack of hypersonics and the potent AD complexes they have to breach.
Zone B is whittling as fast as they can at their apple called TIME. They want to arrest motion to a molasses flow rate, until the Hegemon has run out of means and allies, has overtly collapsed due to internal chaos, and is fully checked near their borders.
Both sides have sliced past micrometer-level thickness and are approached atomic fineness.
Control of whittling will become erratic and unsure; initiatives will open to the most reckless actors on either side.
Operational surprises can be sprung by either party, if either feels objectives have sufficiently ripened.
Pressure will only build to more agonizing levels until they enter the nirvana.
You are very optimistic…
“(in Helsinki, July 16, 2018, a year and a half before the expiration of Trump’s powers)”
Correction (maybe a translation error?): that’s about 2.5 years before the end of trump1.0’s term.
great article – thanks for posting
1…..If we hold out for two or three years, the war will become meaningless for the United States, because, by their own admission, after 2024 they do not see the possibility of defeating China militarily. ….or……..there is no need to have an outstanding intellect to see the “swing” on which the United States is trying to “rock” Russia and China in order to break their partnership (absolutely nullifying all attempts by the United States to regain the status of a global hegemon) and suppress Moscow and Beijing one by one and one by one.
This is paradox. If Russia has a hypersonic weapon that the West does not have, then why should it wait till they get it? Can’t Russia help China in equalizing military power? According to this claim, Russia is not such an ally of China as it presents itself, but plays its own game, and China its own. And each has its own interest.
2………America countered this agreement by saying that the expert groups did not work. So, now Russian diplomats will point this out and demand more constructive………
Why is Russia buying time and to whom? America throws the ball at her volley, as well as to China to resolve the issue of its borders and sovereignty. The world is polarized to those who accept the emergence of a new “democratic UN” the West accepts and its colonies and the rest of the members defending the existing UN. The bosses have created the UN and will not allow Anglo-Zionists to obstruct their model of world governance for the sake of their primacy. If Anglo -Zionist bosses are also UN (WTO, IMF, WB etc) bosses, then the question is why the world (including China and Russia) obey their actions invoking sovereignty.
“This is paradox. If Russia has a hypersonic weapon that the West does not have, then why should it wait till they get it?”
This assumes the West can come up with something comparable soon. I am under the impression that the writers and followers of sites such as The Saker, Moon of Alabama, and the like the consensus is that they are decades away from even a glider on-top a booster.
The Russians could use the time to produce a significant number of these hypersonic missiles. As I understand it, they only have a handful right now, not enough to change the game. Having lots more will be, if the game is not already changed, which has already happened, I think.
Brilliant piece by Ishchenko – thanks for translating and publishing.
Seems, at least to me that “… if the Kremlin decides to restore its exclusive sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space by force …” is the single greatest justification for the continuing existence and expansion of NATO. Talk like that only serves to feed The Beast.
Pentagon plans stronger US posture toward China, Russia.
The US military will re-inforce deployments and bases directed at China and Russia, while maintaining forces in the Middle East adequate to deter Iran and jihadist groups, the Pentagon said Monday, referencing results of a review.
The US Defense Department will be upgrading and expanding military facilities in Guam and Australia, underscoring its focus on China as the country’s leading defense rival, officials said.
The details of the “global posture review,” commissioned by President Joe Biden’s administration early this year, would remain classified, the officials added, so as not to reveal plans to rivals.
The move comes in the wake of the formation of a new defense alliance, dubbed AUKUS, between the United States, Britain and Australia to counter a rising China, which has been building up its own navy and testing decades of US military dominance across Asia.
That pact was formed as Beijing solidifies its control over the disputed South China Sea and intensifies its military threats towards Taiwan, for which the United States is a key ally and arms supplier.
The review confirmed the priority region for the US military was the Indo-Pacific, said Mara Karlin, a top Pentagon policy official.
The review “directs additional cooperation with allies and partners across the region to advance initiatives that contribute to regional stability and deter potential military aggression from China and threats from North Korea,” she told reporters.
In addition, it “strengthens the combat-credible deterrent against Russian aggression in Europe and enables NATO forces to operate more effectively,” she said.
The Middle East, however, remains an area of flux for the Pentagon after the long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Global responsibilities “require us to make continuous changes to our Middle East posture, but we always have the capability to rapidly deploy forces to the region based on the threat environment,” Karlin said.
Good luck with the plan. As if the decrepit US could achieve half of your propositions.
Very unlikely in 2021.
I really want Geraldo Rivera, David Muir, Lloyd Austin, Jack Keane, or someone else to get a real question point blank along the lines of this:
How can a nation that barely won a war against Granada in 1983, lost a war against against Afghanistan in 2021 despite starting it in 2001 (or is that 1979?), got mixed results in Iraq since 1990, starts most of its wars in March, and start most of the rest in October (or so it seems), going to win a war with a peer if not superior adversary in an off-month in 2021 or 2022? They would probably need an insulin or clozapine injection if someone asks.
The concern here is that the nation in question is a nuclear power and we live in a modern reality, where destructive technology and weapons exceed vastly some people’s rationality.
Definitely, avoiding or delaying a war is the optimal strategy.
My sincere respect for Mr. Ischenko. This is an excellent analysis.