I think that we can all agree that the situation in the Ukraine is one of total chaos.
- Renat Akhmetov, the local oligarch-mobster, had declared that his companies will go on a “warning strike” for 3 hours per day because Akhmetov was angered that the authorities of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) had taken over the control of the railways which resulted in losses for his company.
- One of the officials of the DRP reacted to Akhmetov’s threat by declaring that the DRP authorities have begun the process of nationalization of the companies located on the territory of the DRP, in other words, Akhmetov’s holdings.
- The military forces of the neo-Nazi junta have begun shelling several cities in the eastern Ukraine destroying several buildings
- The military commander of the DRP forces, Igor Strelkov, has made a poignant and blunt appeal for a much bigger mobilization of men, especially officers, in the volunteer forces defending the DRP against the junta’s military.
- Ukrainian death-squads have, yet again, kidnapped a team of Russian reporters, this time of the TV station LifeNews, accusing them of being the “information-component” of a terrorist movement.
- The Russian government has indicated that the military forces which had been on maneuvers had returned to their bases. NATO denied that.
- The Russian military has completed the building a network of pipelines which are now fully supplying Crimea with fresh water.
- The leader of the Ukie Nazis, Iarosh, has announced that if he is elected he would launched a guerrilla war in Crimea.
So what is really going on?
I think that while it is premature to make grand conclusions and predictions, we can begin by agreeing on a number of basic facts.
First, there is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that the junta in Kiev is clearly provoking Moscow in every possible way. If one could maybe see some marginal and far-fetched military rationale for the kind of random artillery strikes the Ukies are unleashing on Slavianks, Kramatorsk and other cities, the arrest of the LifeNews news-crew makes no sense at all. They were put on their knees, beat up, held with their faces to the ground – all on video which was then “leaked” to Youtube as if the death squads were provoking the Kremlin with a “what are you gonna do about it?” message/
Second, I believe that the appointment of Biden’s son to the board of directors of the main Ukie energy company whose concessions are all in the eastern Ukraine is also a way of further provoking the Kremlin.
So why would the junta do all this?
First, I think that it is reasonable to accept as an axiom that the freaks in Kiev don’t “decide” anything at all. They just take orders from the USA and execute them. We saw that clearly during Biden’s recent trip to Kiev when he had a meeting with the junta’s “government” which he – Biden – “chaired” sitting at the head of the table (yet another deliberate in-your-face provocation).
Second, the US knows that the eastern Ukraine is lost, and they are absolutely correct. Even if we fully believe what Strelkov says (more about that later), there is no doubt that the vast majority of the folks in the Donbass hate the neo-Nazi freaks in Kiev and that they do not want a common future with the rabid Galicians from the western Ukraine.
So if plan ‘A’ was to seize all of the Ukraine, put a pro-US neo-Nazi and hysterically russophobic regime in power, and take over Crimea for the US/NATO, plan ‘B’ is simpler: provoke Russia into a military intervention in the eastern Ukraine. While the Russian military could easily take under control all of the Donbass and even all the lands to the Dniepr river as the proverbial hot knife through butter, the political benefits for the AngloZionist Empire would be immense:
1) A new Cold War with Russia justifying the existence of NATO.
2) Cutting-off Russia from the EU market (including energy).
3) Blaming Russia for the Ukie economic collapse.
4) Justifying a major surge in US/EU military budgets to “protect Europe”.
5) Isolating Russia internationally, especially at the UN.
6) Declare Putin a “new Hitler” (what else?) and allocate billions for regime change in Russia.
7) Use the crisis to bring Europe to heel to the AngloZionist “master”
8) Impose Iran-like sanctions on Russia to try to hurt it economically
9) Justify a US/NATO move into western Ukraine and the creation of a new Korean-style demarcation line along the Dniepr with the free and civilized “West” on one side, and the “freedom hating and imperialist dictatorial Russian Asiatic hordes” on the other.
10)Blame the EU economic collapse on the ‘Russian threat’
I would argue that for the AngloZionists plan ‘B’ is almost better than plan ‘A’. For one thing, plan ‘B’ makes it possible to blame Russia for anything and everything conceivable on Russia. We have already seen this tendency in the absolutely ludicrous warning that should the Presidential elections next Sunday in the Ukraine fail – Russia would be sanctioned for it. Next I propose to slap some major sanctions on Russia if there is an earthquake in San Fransisco or if there are riots in Paraguay…
Also, while plan ‘A’ was really a very long shot, plan ‘B’ is already working. Let me give you an example: the Russian media.
For those who cannot follow the Russian media, especially the Russian TV, it is hard to image the degree of openly expressed *rage* at the developments in the Ukraine. Some folks who are naturally inclined to see the “hand of CIA” in everything are even arguing that the “US-controlled” Russian media has been tasked by Langley to stir up Russian public opinion to such a degree as to force Putin to agree to an intervention in the Ukraine. According to this thesis, if Putin does not order a Russian military intervention, he will face a major crisis and his popularity will crumble under the waves of outrage from the Russian population. This is a neat and elegant theory. It is also wrong (thank God!). The fact is that Putin’s popularity has soared over his handling over the Ukrainian crisis as shown by the screenshot of a recent TV report.
|January 2014 – May 2014|
Here we are dealing with a huge cultural difference between Russians and western people, especially Anglos: Russians are *very* weary of war. They will accept it and they will even accept to die in a war, but only one in which the moral issue is really clear-cut like during the 2nd Chechen war, 08.08.08 or the Russian intervention in Crimea. In all three of these cases the first and foremost consideration to support or oppose the Russian military intervention was a *moral* one. While public opinion is gradually shifting towards a support for a Russian military intervention in the Ukraine (most public opinion polls suggest that Russian would back one), the military itself and even the Kremlin are weary of falling into the AngloZionist trap of plan ‘B’.
Emotions are strong, but emotions should not decide of war and peace issues. In the 2nd Chechen war, in 08.08.08 and in Crimea emotions were sky-high, but the decision to use military force was taken on pragmatic, rational and carefully measured reasons, not just an surge of outrage. As I said it many times, when threatened, Russians to not get angry, they concentrate. This is what is happening now.
Coming back to the media, another very interesting phenomenon is taking place: high visibility Russian Jews are clearly in the lead of the movement to take action (though not necessarily a military one) against the Junta. Very well-known Jewish personalities like Vladimir Soloviev, Alexander Gordon, Roman Ratner (current head of the Alia battalion, an Israeli special forces battalion compose of Russian Jews), Avigdor Eskin and many others. While rabid Jew-haters will dismiss this under the usual list of pretexts having to do with Jewish hypocrisy, playing both sides, etc. I personally believe that this is truly an expression of the loathing that Russian Jews have for Ukrainian neo-Nazis. I would add that it is pretty clear to me that most Russian nationalists also believe in the sincerity of these Jews and welcome them in a struggle against a common enemy. Does that mean that from now on there will be a long and uninterrupted “love fest” between Russian and Jewish patriots? Most definitely not. The list of outstanding issues of very strong disagreement and even opposition is huge, but this is an interesting “temporary cease-fire” if you want, a typically Russian (and Jewish!) way of keeping priorities straight and agreeing to a temporary tactical alliance against a common foe. Furthermore, there are a lot of Russian Jews who have always felt a sincere and strong love for Russia and the Russian people (if only because a lot of them came from mixed marriages) and who welcome the opportunity to not have to chose between both sides and to be both patriotic Jews and patriotic Russians. I know, to some this sill sound extremely naive. But I personally have known many such Russian Jews, in Israel, Europe and Russia, who really did have a double-loyalty, but one which openly *added* two sincerely loyalties. Of course, some felt more Jewish than Russian, but others felt more Russian than Jewish. These matters are subtle and complex, not as black and white as some kneejerk Jew-haters would want them to be. As the Russian expressions goes “the East is a subtle realm” and both Russians and Jews are first and foremost folks of the East, not of the West.
Coming back to what I call the AngoZionist plan ‘B’, we now can understand the Russian stance: not to be pulled in or, if that is impossible, to be pulled in as last as possible. Why? For a few basic reasons:
1) To have as clear-cut a moral case as possible.
2) To give time to world public opinion to realize that it is being lied to by the western corporate media (that already seems to be taking place, if slowly).
3) To maximize the support for such an intervention in the eastern Ukraine.
4) Because time is very much on the Russian side, to give every opportunity to the junta freaks to further commit blunders.
5) Because a victory of the DRP forces is still possible
At this point I want to get the the military balance on the ground in the Donbass. To sum things up.
A very large Ukrainian force is currently deployed in the eastern Ukraine. It is opposed by a very small force of volunteers. There are two reasons why this conflict has not been settled in 24 hours. First, the vast majority of the Ukrainian military personnel does not want to fight. Second, the threat of a Russian military intervention is real and, I would add, has nothing to do with the forces allegedly deployed at the Russian-Ukrainian border. Let me explain this as the corporate media is completely missing this. Let me give you an example of what could happen.
Let’s us assume that a few multiple-rocket launcher batteries around, say, Slaviansk suddenly decided to get serious and open up with a sustained artillery barrage similar to the one the Georgians unleashed on Tskhinval in the first hours of the 08.08.08 war. In response to that, Russia would not need to send armor and troops across the border. Putin could order missile and air-strikes which could literally obliterate the offending Ukrainian artillery units in a matter of *minutes* (one single Iskander missile armed with a fragmentation or fuel-air explosive warhead could do the job!). Unlike the western reporters (which is a misnomer, they should be called “parroters” because they parrot the government lies), the Ukrainian military commanders all fully realize that they are all very much within reach of enough Russian firepower to send them all the a better world in minutes. Would you want to obey orders to shell Slaviansk while knowing that there is a bullseye painted on our exact position by many Iskander missile operators and that if the Russians fire it, you will neither see, nor hear it coming (not even on radar)?
All the reports on the ground concur to say that while the various Ukrainian death squads (the “National Guard”, the Dniepr and Dniester battalions, the various oligarch-owned death squads, etc.) are extremely hostile and even shoot civilians for fun, the Ukrainian military is mostly shy or even pretty friendly to the locals. Here is what is happening really:
Ukrainian death squads are far more busy dealing with the Ukrainian military than with the Donbass forces. For one thing, this is easier and safer for them (like all death squads, they are staffed with lunatics, perverts and cowards): why risk your life fighting some pretty motivated folks when you can instead bully regular military commanders to do the fighting for you? As for the Ukrainians, they cannot openly defy these orders, but they can make darn sure that they are minimally executed.
Furthermore, by all accounts, the death squads get all the support while the regular military forces are under or not paid at all, they are under fed, under equipped, they have little or not medical support and the logistics are plain horrible.
In fact, Igor Strelkov admits this in his address. His concern is that with the gradual escalation the already small forces of volunteers is having to shoulder am immense effort while hundred of thousands of men, including military trained ones, are sitting at home and sipping beer. Is that really true?
I believe that this is indeed very true. There are many reasons for this state of affairs.
To begin, an entire generation of Ukrainians have been raised in abject passivity. “Work, shut up and mind your business while we fleece you” was the order of the day under the various oligarch-controlled regimes of the “independent Ukraine”. Second, there are not one or two but at least THREE local powers in the Donbass right now: the local mobsters, the Kiev junta and the local resistance. This creates a huge confusion were many people are both afraid and do not want to get burned. Third, most people clearly that Russia will solve the problem for them and think “we will vote for sovereignty, and the Russians will come to liberate us sooner or later”. And never forget that that there are death squads operating all over the Ukraine right now. The purpose of massacres like the one in Odessa or Mariupol is to terrify the locals by showing how ruthless and murderous you are and it works (death squads are of the most time honored traditions of the Empire!). So it is all well to sit in the safety of my house in sunny Florida and wish that the folks in the Donbass would take up arms, except for my wife and family are not threatened. My house will (probably) not get assaulted at night by man in black, and I am unlikely to be disappeared, tortured and murdered. This also applies to most of the readers of this blog.
Of course, Strelkov clearly sees where all this is heading (escalation) and he is concerned that the currently small resistance will not be able to cope with a constantly growing junta escalation: it all began with baseball bats, the they switched to Molotov cocktails, then handguns, assault-rifles and machine guns. Now they have already used mortar and artillery fire. We have confirmed reports of helicopter-fired unguided missile attacks and this morning I got a report of a Sukhoi attack. Add to this oligarch-paid death squads and you clearly will see what has Strelkov so worried and, let’s face it, disgusted with the passivity of the locals.
But keep in mind that even if his appeal is not heeded, and even if the key cities are re-taken, the Donbass is already lost. In fact, the latest report out of Kiev says the Ukie rump-Rada has adopted a memorandum stating that “Ukrainian troops deployed in the country’s east should immediately return to their bases”. Now, I am not holding my breath (Uncle Sam will never agree), but who knows what might happen (maybe the Germans are getting involved now?). I believe that nobody really knows.
There are simply too many variables to confidently state that this or that will happen. Heck, we are not even sure of what has already happened! This is an extremely chaotic situation in which most unpredictable things could happen (for example, an oligarch could e bought by Moscow or a resistance figure could be bought by the USA – it really could go either way). The fact is that with the notable exception of true believers (on both sides), the vast majority of Ukrainians are still in the “what is in it for me?” mode. Again, this is in no way different form the position of most Russians in 1917, 1991 or 1993. While this kind of apparent passivity has nothing to do with some “lack of democratic culture in the past of these societies which only recently were feudal” and all the rest of the garden variety western racism supremacist, it is a direct result of a profound alienation with, and suspicion of, the elites. These folks just so Yanukovich hand power to neo-Nazis and run abroad! They have been burned over and over again. And, this is crucial, there is no Ukrainian Putin to follow.
When Putin came to power in Russia it took less than a month for the armed forces to feel that “this guy as got our backs”. It took the rest of the population a little longer, but now the vast majority of Russians actually trust Putin. Whom should they trust in the Ukraine or even in the Donbass. Figure which appeared just a few weeks ago and which nobody really knows or figures which are known for decades for being thief, crooks and pathological liars?
Whom would you trust if you were living in Donetsk or Lugansk?
Would you risk your life and the life of your family on such a choice?
So while I understand the frustration of Strelkov (and most of us!) with seeing a territory with millions of people defended by only a few hundred courageous men, and while I also catch myself getting enraged in discussed with the news out of the Ukraine and day-dreaming about Polite Armed Men in Green obliterating the Ukie death-squads, I also understand why this has been and will continue to be a slow process: it is simply too fluid and too rapidly shifting to take any premature or rash decisions.
The AngloZionists are desperately trying to trigger an over Russian intervention, and there is a pretty good chance that they might succeed, no doubt, but the good news is that time is running out fast, very fast, soon the economic crisis is going to start really biting and the unrest will spread far beyond the Donbass.
As for the Presidential elections next Sunday, they are going to be such a mega-farce that it serve no other purpose than to maybe give NATO a justification to move forces into the western Ukraine at the “request” of the new President. Will the West recognize this election? You betcha it will! As Vladimir Soloviev put it on Sunday, “even if there will be only one candidate and one person voting, the West will call these elections free and fair“. But for the people of the Ukraine this will be a self-evident farce which will only alienate them further, including the neo-Nazis. In fact, Yulia Timoshenko (who, by the way, seems to have gone completely insane) has even declared that if the billionaire oligarch Poroshenko is elected (as all polls seem to suggest) she will launch yet another revolution with Maidan and all.
Following the example of the Ukraine, not it is “Banderastan” which is committing national suicide and that entire house of cards will be coming down soon (unless a last minute effort by Germany helps delay or stop this, but I am not holding my breath). We all need to show some patience now.
Sorry for the very long SITREP, but I have to cover a lot of ground.
Many thanks and kind regards,
PS: I am under huge time pressure, so no time to correct typos. I apologize for that and ask for your understanding. And, besides, this is a SITREP not a work of literary art.
But Saker you’re wrong, it is a work of literary art :)
I share Strelkov”s frustration however I do believe he fully understands that time is on the Russians & his side.
Call from Babay, to open a corridor.
Graham Phillips arrested by Kiev thugs.
The war is over!
Ukrainian MPs call for immediate troop withdrawal from country’s east.
Concur. It is quite well written and relevant. What is art if not that?
Thanks Saker for this sitrep.
Anxiously waiting for this. In this vast piece typo may happen and I hope readers do overlook this.
Thanks Saker you did the best under the existing circumstance.
May God help Russia
Charles Mondeley said…
But Saker you’re wrong, it is a work of literary art :)
Charles, I completely agree. I know he works under time constraints and that english is not his first language but I would love to see him get a good volunteer proofreader to fix the few errors and hopefully get
his material reprinted in many more places on the net, his message needs a much larger audience.
Verkhovna Rada cries uncle!
Ukrainian MPs call for immediate troop withdrawal from country’s east
Ukrainian troops deployed in the country’s east should immediately return to their bases, the country’s parliament said in a memorandum. The freshly-adopted document also urges constitutional reforms based on the decentralization of Kiev’s power.
With 226 votes required to pass the law, the Ukrainian parliament finally adopted the so-called ‘Memorandum of Peace and Consent’, 252 MPs voting in favor. In particular, the document calls “to restore law, order and public safety in the state by stopping bloodshed and bringing to justice those responsible for the killings of civilians during mass protests; to stop the anti-terrorist operation in Ukraine’s southeast and return the soldiers involved in anti-terrorist operations to their places of permanent deployment.”
The document also urges for immediate constitutional reform that will grant more autonomy to regions.
The Verkhovna Rada voted after a debate concerning the wording of the article on the status of the Russian language. An agreement was reached after “constitutional status of the Ukrainian language as the language of state” was confirmed.
The document said that the state “must ensure the rights of minority languages.” The document made a point “to grant the status of the Russian language,” but stopped short from giving it the constitutional status. This resulted in the Communist Party abstaining from the vote.
Communist leader Pyotr Simonenko also blasted the decision to drop the provision granting amnesty to self-defense forces in the east.
MPs from the nationalist Svoboda Party abstained from voting as well, saying they believe the reform will be ineffective.
Further, the reform will provide for the country to drop its non-aligned status, allowing it to join any interstate union through a referendum.
Following the announcement, Russia said that if Ukraine’s authorities plan to implement all the reforms declared in the memorandum then they will finally be responding to Moscow’s calls.
“First, we have to see how it looks on paper. If this is true then it’s the development we have been talking about over the past months,” said Deputy Head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Grigory Karasin, as quoted by RIA Novosti.
From the Neocon perspective, what you describe here as ‘Plan B’ has really been their ‘Plan A’ all along. It’s been pretty clear from the historical arc of Neocon scheming that they knew these hapless thugs they installed with their mini-coup would not be well-received by the East and that Putin and the Russians would of course be pro-active in their defense of the port in Crimea.
Saker, thanks – great sum up as usual!
I found out that your analysis is along the same lines like here- sober comment of putting puzzle together of Ukrainian crisis: http://politrussia.ru/politkasha/ukraina-razvitie-krizisa/
Ion The Silent
A work of supreme analysis at least!!
I have one issue: if nazis like Yarosh and olicharchs Akhmetov and especially the non human psychopath Kolomoysky are not neutralized, like Zarqawi in Iraq, it will send a VERY bad signal to all kinds of mobsters, gangsters, and wannabe puppets. Not just in Ukraine, but also Venezuela, Cuba, belarus, and yes, Russia!
(They will think there is much gain, and little risk).
Instructive and well analysed commentary, Saker.
There’s obviously a good Russian part, in you, because though angry, this does not stop you from thinking hard… on the contrary!
It’s so true what you write: “when threatened, Russians to not get angry, they concentrate” !
I’ve noticed the same attitude with the Syrians.
At the antipodes of what the Anglo-American world tends to do.
I’m a jew, I was born in Ukraine. My first language was Ukrainian, my second language was Russian and my grandmother taught me Yiddish.
My husband is Ukrainian, he was born in Russia. They spoke Ukrainian at home and Russian outside the household.
Our children were born in Russia.
We are US citizens now. And here is the birthplace of our grandchildren.
And if you ask me where is my Motherland, I reply: RUSSIA.
Stratfor thinks that Ukraine will become a buffer state, because nobody will send troops and the coup-government is “pathetic”. And that basically favors Russia:
Excellent summary. It’s often that having read new developments in the news, I look up this site to post them and find most of these are already covered by the latest sitrep.
The Kolonoscopy’s fingerprints seem to be all over the place.
Ukraine’s oligarchs gain millions due to military operations in the country’s south-east
“The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is still the country’s main fuel buyer. Demand for fuel has increased twice since the beginning of the so-called ‘anti-terrorist’ operation. Thus, the Ukrtatnafta Oil Company, which belongs to an oligarch and newly appointed Dnepropetrovsk region governor, Igor Kolomoysky, has become the main supplier of Ukraine’s armed forces…”
Nazis askerred of Russian volunteers entering Ukraine to help defeat the zionazi’s quislings.
Ukraine places anti-tank hedgehogs, adds checkpoints on border with Russia
“…Anti-tank hedgehogs and concrete blocks were established at checkpoints on the border with Russia. The State Border Guard Service added that 200 checkpoints, 400 firing positions and 70 km of tranches were organized on the border. Almost 200 bypass roads were blocked outside checkpoints.”
Follow The Oil. Crimea was about strategic resources, not about the Russians outside of Russia — that was just pretext as it will be for other strategic resource grabs.
Anyway, it’s Tea Time.
Polonium-210 Tea With The Tsar
Regarding Strelkov appeal,I do not think ( like doesn´t think Strelkov ) people with family responsablities have to go, but I wonder young people. Does everyone in the Donbass are married with young children? I guess not. I understand that, as pili said here, it is difficult to load the iphone in a trench.
I understand that people are disoriented,especially if, as you say Saker, leaders are unknown to them. Given that is normal caution.
But, being clear,as I suposse that is now for the people of Donbass, wich awaits future being crushed by neoNazis thugs,in my opinion, thera are only two options: A)Leave the country, or B)Fight for freedom.
After all, someone wanted to live in a country goberned by this ilk? and, it is not better to die on your feet than live on your knees?
I think i would choose option B, in fact my blood boil from here without doing anything to help them.
Really, if anyone would fight, all would be lost, and all we have, our freedom, the few rights won and go robbing us everyday, we owe it to the handful of those indispensable that, regardless of what they left behind, they mustered up courage to get in front.
On the position of Russia/Putin, I understand that they can not fall into the trap.
Relations between Jews and Russians have always been complex.
After all, two of the great modern Russian Christian poets — Mandelstam and Pasternak — were ethnically Jewish.
And Mandelstam’s poem about Stalin — some of whose force comes over even to those of us without Russian — is a prophetic utterance.
I might have found this on Twitter; hell, I might have found it here on this blog. I just wish I had found it sooner. Here’s Turchynov and Yats getting an earful from the local in Kiev on Victory Day.
Dear Mr. Saker:
Calling situations and places by their currect, functional names – I suggest rather than Banderastan – I would use CIA-Ukrainistan, or CIA-ukiestan – clearer than Nulandistan which is also correct. Or some variant. After all, who brought these rabid groups into existence and controls the show?
I suggest also –
1) the Banderites and other assorted bullies and loud-mouths have got to be viewed with skepticism and even revulsion in Western Ukraine – they are not a mass movement by any means
At the very least, the general West Ukrainian population is just about as passive , or more passive than in the east. Otherwise there would be large numbers of volunteers for the army and for the Banderites – there would be no need for Blackwater or CIA prodding or a visit by Biden..
2. If Putin waits for opportunities and mistakes to be made, he may get a chance in watern Ukraine too – suppose there is such economic chaos that there is famine, and he starts sending food in? I don’t think the US or NATO will engage in efficient humanitarian aid. Note the signed deals between Russia and China, including one about humanitarian aid Moreover, some economic pressure might suddenly be brought to bear on Germany – I’d say, time is on Putin’s side.
3. Putin has not forgotten Transdnister either, and I bet that will not fall to NATO.
Well, Plan B may be “simpler” but it is as delusional. Mainly because Putin will not play into the role that the AngloZionists dream of.
Let’s be clear about some of these delusions. The West doesn’t have the money. They are printing (counterfeiting) it. Period. Any delusions about increased spending for the military industrial complex are wet dreams. Economic growth in the west is stagnant, increasing budget deficits are the norm, government debt is absolutely out of control AND this is with interest rates suppressed to zero so that their costs of carrying this debt is small (so far). The financial system is corrupt, manipulated and careening toward utter collapse.
All plan B is, is a desperate quest to find somebody, anybody to blame for the AngloZionist’s empire collapse. The inherent financial and economic flaws will drive them to ruin. The west is desperate to plunder directly and indirectly (through financial manipulations and counterfeiting) the wealth of ANYBODY they can get their tentacles into. The west needs “Full Spectrum Dominance” on the financial side right NOW. The AngloZionist oligarchs are juggling so many manipulations right now that a monkey’s fart in Timbuktu could bring this all down. And then who will be blamed? These turds are determined to have some other whipping boy other than themselves. Otherwise, beware the thundering herd.
As bad as it is in eastern and southern Ukraine (and I feel for every poor SOB caught up in this battle of the mental midgets from Kiev), the likelihood is that this is going to take TIME. And the people on the ground are going to have to stand up (a good chunk of them already are) and push back. Putin will help where he can but there is a bigger game afoot. Its time for “It’s not what my country can do for me, It’s what I can do for my country”. And there is more depth to this phrase than meets the eye.
Yes, the poor bastards in the Ukraine have been lied to, stolen from and generally been fucked without being kissed for decades but expecting Putin to put his pecker in the meat grinder without them putting theirs in first is a nonstarter.
As for the May 25th election, it will very likely make things worse. As I said in another post ‘The losers will scream foul, the outside powers will meddle more, the oligarchs will be pushed into more stupid actions and the East and South will follow the separatist route out of desperation and frustration.”
Crazy Ivan says…
I’ll be short I got no time now.
1) I had impression that your piece of “literary art” ;-) is too Slavic aka too sophisticated for the Western readers. I’m not going to offend you, dear readers, I’ve just gotten such feeling reading Saker’s post.
2) Quote – “They will accept it and they will even accept to die in a war, but only one in which the moral issue is really clear-cut (…)”
That’s the ethical, moral and humane advantage of Eastern people to those who worship and to follow up according to the (in)famous – “Who is not with us is against us” – also clear-cut division, isn’t it?
3) Analyzing passivity you overlooked another clear-cut division, perhaps verbally and not through description of it.
Namely, to fight against one have to be sure in his mind he has back-up (area, machinery, weapons, food stores, etc.) If the Eastern Ukraine was divided by clear-cut front line, believe me, there would be 150 thousand army on Strelkov side. Perhaps DPR authorities should first create clear-cut free zones of any oligarchs’ death machinery or robbing gangs the liberation movement had already gained all Novorossiya territory now.
Personal remarks – I appreciate much more blunt and sincere talk – “I do not know nothing and I can’t make any predictions at present” – from many “ifs” which would never materialized.
I like the post of yours much.
Saker, do you think there is the possibility for the revolt in the east to spread to the west? Are there enough sane people in the west to overcome the insanity that is destroying them? This could be a real revolution especially with the threats to nationalize the Oligarchs fiefdoms in response to their actions past and present.
Strelkov’s call to action is timely and including women is smart, they can fight just as fiercely as men. I think his call was not just for the people of E. Ukraine but subtlety a call for all Ukrainians to rise up and support the revolution and eliminate the freaks.
The move of the US and Kiev’s government are just out of desperation. I’ve been living in the US for more than 20 years, never seen the US government acting this desperate and stupid.
With all the seemingly bad and crazy news out there, I have a hunch that that everything is in favor of Russia on the ground. This is the dark before the dawn. Putin backed off a little bit to give the West some maneuver room so that they can save their face and retreat.
Let’s wait and see.
Dear The Saker,
Thank you for the latest SITREP. It is a patient man’s game.
I think what is going on in the Far East today also has played a part. The world is changing.
The timely money from the EU today got the Memo of Peace. However, the journalists from lifenews are still being held and the USG/Junta seem to have used the time to secure the borders – but from what you have said – that his been a waste of time!
p.s. forget typos – we can all read and understand :)
Thank you Saker for the sitrep. The typos are completely innocuous. The information is priceless. Thank you again.
I know that The Saker is a native French speaker, but I never cease to be amazed at his level of English mastery. Even the most subtlest of things, like the articles (an absolute nightmare for anyone not speaking the language natively) are always used exactly comme il faut.
Yes, there were a few typos in the report but given the publishing speed, volume, and depth of the information published, they are more than excusable. Chapeau bas!
Crazy Ivan says…
The unanswered question:
Why Ukraine Army Units are passive and do not protect civilian population?
P.S. I’ve read some units are mingled with National Guard thugs. For example some (more passively?) Ukie Army units have been replenished or were complemented by NatGuardsmen or Right Sector thugs (up to 30%) and the way they are ruthlessly controlled by Kiev regime.
I just saw that the Moscow City Court’s jury have brought in a verdict of guilty in the 2006 murder of investigative journalist Anna Politkovskaya.
Will you have an opportunity to remind us of and give your opinion about her murder.
Isn’t the mountain of Ukrainian debt already in the hands of the western “Banksters” really what is behind this sudden move before the Ukraine loses much it’s strategic value in the “Great Game” with the completion of SouthStream in 2015? I believe the Banksters see a “now or never” situation to “Cyprusize” and extract all they can from the Ukraine. The biggest surprise of all may be in store for the Ukrainian Oligarchs!
The key in the withdrawal legislation just passed by the Ukrainian parliament is the provision that the Ukraine can ally itself with whomever it wants so next step after the “elections” is to schedule a “referendum” on this issue. If the neocons can’t get all of the Ukraine, well, the Western part will do well enough. The dance has many steps, pirouttes, sashays,zig and zag jigs etc. In a month, well, things will be much more polarized most likely. This is a geopolitical move in order to position itself better in the coming resource wars vis a vis Russia and China.
The bottom line is that Ukraine is an economic basket case. The U.S./EU has two choices: (1) Spend tens of billions rescuing Ukraine, most of which will be passed on to Russia to pay for energy. Or (2) spend that money on armaments for a new Cold War in Europe. You know which option the U.S. military-industrial complex wants.
As for Russia, from a very practical point of view, why should it want to rescue Ukraine? The West “broke it,” let them now “own it.” The crunch will really come when Ukrainians start freezing in the fall. So let the West pay Russia for Ukraine’s energy.
The only hope for the West is to make the terror inside Ukraine so terrible that Putin looks weak and starts losing support at home. They have four months in which to try that ploy.
saker -your quote “To have as clear-cut a moral case as possible.
2) To give time to world public opinion to realize that it is being lied to by the western corporate media (that already seems to be taking place, if slowly).”
this is what will destroy russia and china. with this timidity shown by these two countries the anglos got bold enough to comen and take Russia from near her very border.
welcome to russia of second world war two where she lsot 27 millions or napoleaonic war which tore apart russia.
all ebcause of russian timidity at initial stages.
Thank you Saker for your wonderful summary. It is no question that your intuition is very good.
Regarding to Putin he is NOT going to intervine he let the Nazis to be exposed for the all world in a ful picture as they are.
Is it going to be very painful in some way, but in the long run it is worth it. He is not going to send any more guns to create more chaos, he is quietly preparing the history for the next stage.
Of course German’s got scared finally, after the citizen’s pressure not because of the Putin’s threats to stop the gas distribution for the EU, but at the same time of the Ukraians immigration to the West.
This last news about to create the new constitution is nothing else just to create the illusion before election. It is nothing just a maneuver to get the poeple cheat for the future that everything is going to be OK. It is nothing just a baloony fairytale.
The good news is, that the Nazis have shown their real face. Somehow this Nacizm started to spread to Slovakia, Czech republic /latest soker cup was flooded by the Nazi symbols and participants/ and so on, this coul’d be another prove that it is financed very well.
I’m sure that Putin is very well pripared for the next step to solve the situation in a peaceful way, we just have to hope htat the healthy and sober brain will win.
saker -your quote “it all began with baseball bats, the they switched to Molotov cocktails, then handguns, assault-rifles and machine guns. Now they have already used mortar and artillery fire. We have confirmed reports of helicopter-fired unguided missile attacks and this morning I got a report of a Sukhoi attack.”
tgis escalation is proportionate to the impotency shown by Russia and china .plus russian treachery of their allies.
The Saker poisits:
So if plan ‘A’ was to seize all of the Ukraine, put a pro-US neo-Nazi and hysterically russophobic regime in power, and take over Crimea for the US/NATO, plan ‘B’ is simpler: provoke Russia into a military intervention in the eastern Ukraine. While the Russian military could easily take under control all of the Donbass and even all the lands to the Dniepr river as the proverbial hot knife through butter, the political benefits for the AngloZionist Empire would be immense:
Follow the Oil and Trade $$
Imo @ Plan “A” the US/NATO take over Crimea this loss gotta hurt, bigtime.
Take a read NYTimes Putin’s Crimea Bonus – Vast Gas and Oil Reserves http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/18/world/europe/in-taking-crimea-putin-gains-a-sea-of-fuel-reserves.html?smid=tw-share&_r=4
@ Plan “B”
Item 2. Cutting off Russia from the EU market (including energy) is unlikely. Germany will not be on board. Unthinkable. In the non-energy sector, over 6,000 German companies and 300,000 jobs depend on Russia’s trade. The US Fed cannot replace Russia’s gas by printing; hot air
Item 5. Isolating Russia internationally, especially at the UN is a dream. Russia anchors the BRICS, and is a member of APEC.
Btw, some 80 countries have applied for associate members of BRICS. No longer in planning The BRICS alternative to the IMF and World Bank is funded. Launch date: July 2014 meeting in Brazil. Soon when Iran joins the group known as BRIICS.
Item 8. Iran-like sanctions are unlikely. Iran was kicked out of SWIFT and quickly sold their oil for gold – a distinct threat to the petro-dollar. Imo, this by-pass move by Iran triggered the sudden U.S. U-turn to embrace Iran in talks.
Unintended consequences. It is said, Ukraine is where the petro dollar went to to die.
Change in the air.
I observe after the Odessa massacre, the US/NATO cliché are largely silent. Perhaps in shock at murderous events unfolding, some former leaders are now suggesting we need to resolve the Ukraine crisis. In fact, former Canadian PM, Mr. Joe Clark (of current PM, Mr. Harper’s Conservative Party) said
“ Ottawa needs to tone down rhetoric on Ukraine.”
Canada’s The Globe And Mail’s interview with Mr. Clark, former prime minister
“The Conservative government’s rhetoric on Ukraine could compromise Canada’s efforts to resolve the protracted crisis, former prime minister Joe Clark says.
In an interview this week with The Globe and Mail, Mr. Clark called the government’s comparisons to the Second World War “unhelpful,” saying Ottawa should focus instead on the current situation in Ukraine. [.] Mr. Clark said he understands why the government has been outspoken on the matter, but added that he is concerned some of its statements could make it more difficult for Canada to participate in future negotiations.
“I think that the co-operation would have proved more effective without the rhetoric,” he said. “I think there was a risk, there may still be a risk, that our rhetoric was so extreme that we will not be called to the influential decision-making meetings.”
Crunch time approaches as 2014 June 1, is near. Pay the Ukraine gas arrears or else face disruption. Itar-Tass reports European, Ukraine and Russia have agreed to meet on May 26. Russia is willing to help if arrears are settled.
At present, Naftogaz’s debt for Russian gas is valued at $3.5 billion.
Both the European Commission and Ukraine have confirmed the size of Ukraine’s outstanding debt for April 1, 2014.
“The Russian side continues meeting its gas commitments to Ukraine and European consumers,” he said, adding the debt remained unpaid on May 19.
All eyes are looking east. Mr. Putin visit to Beijing, May 20/21 has him looking pleased on his first day:
* China Signs Non Dollar Settlement Deal with Russia’s Largest Bank
* China’s Great Wall Motor carmaker to build $500 million plant in Russia
IMHO, the financial centers move from west to east is unstoppable. Ukraine serves to hasten the pace.
This might be of interest to Saker readers. Kim Sengupta of The Independent, who for a long time was seemingly pro-coup, is now starting to sound a little worried about the situation in the east. He just posted this little story about a Ukranian guy wanting to join the “men in black”:
Great Sitrep, Saker!
May I add one other consequence to all of the Western shenanigans so far: Reports now say that both Sweden and Finland are ready to join NATO now; that their reservations have been silenced as a result of the Ukraine “crises.” This will add more NATO troops to the northern borders of Russia.
There are also some very real partnership projects between Europe and Russia that got tanked, including trade agreements that would have benefited Europe and Russia in the near future, establishing a giant trade area from Portugal in the West to China in the East. An agreement and project of this scope would have meant a loss of control for the Anglo forces and even, possibly down the line, a major break in NATO.
The petrodollar is clearly in trouble and those who watch the financial markets are saying that beginning in 2015 things economic will be vastly different, read worse in Anglo-Emiredom. It is even feared that the US could become a third world nation, albeit one armed with nuclear weapons.
Add to this the mega wealth available to Russia to develop in the arctic and in Siberia and you can see that the battle will go on until either one side or the other is vanquished or the citizens of the Anglo-Empire get enough truth to effect a change. While I wish the Americans and their allied peoples would do this, I am not holding my breath. The best we may be able to hope for at this point is the demise of the US as a world power if the planet is to survive. Everyone else seems to want to trade peacefully. It will not happen as long as the US and Britain are in charge and NATO is not disbanded.
The Memorandum of Withdrawal may be important and may have come about as the result of back channel communication with Russia and Germany. I am interested to see what the US does, whether there is an in coming flight with somebody ready to do some back stiffening in Kyiv.
Yes, the paragraph about the choice of alignment puts Russia back into play but it never really wasn’t. Weeks ago I noted that the PM in his statements seemed to be leaving the door open in respect of Russia. While there may be no love lost there I find myself wondering whether some people in Kyiv have been playing a pragmatic but long game.
I have also commented that this election will produce a lame duck president. The important election will be the next one, an election for the presidency of a government of national unity.
Russia has been making conciliatory noises about gas pricing that will not have gone unnoticed given that Europe needs full pipes in order to have they gas we need here.
Right now, if I am optimistic, I can hope that as long as the US does not choose to force disruption then there is an opportunity to enable a unified state, albeit with a different structure.
Moscow have made clear that even EU membership is not off the table, not that it will be for at least the next generation, as long as NATO is not. That state of affairs suits many, maybe a majority in Ukraine and the echoes statements from the junta weeks ago rejecting NATO as an option. The nationalists, federalists and Russia are all in agreement on this point.
Russia would likely be happy having the EU stand as guarantor for Ukrainian energy purchases and the establishment of an eastern Free Trade Area might well deal with the tricky issue of having Ukraine integrated into two customs unions.
So, right now I am going to have a night of sleep where I am a little more optimistic about the future and where I do not think about having a sudden drive across Europe heading westward.
Crazy Ivan says…
@ Anon Mongoose 20 May, 2014 22:23
> Germany will not be on board. Unthinkable. In the non-energy sector, over 6,000 German companies and 300,000 jobs depend on Russia’s trade.
I beg your pardon but you repeat the nonsense I have been reading for few weeks if not months lately.
I mean the numbers – 300 000 more jobless Germans? Turks? Poles? Germans are practical nation they will switch the jobs into another sector. Germany is too strong to be bothered with such trifle numbers. Only politicians cries high as they are payed for such behavior.
BRICS is over propagandized. BRICS has potential but not real power as for now.
> * China’s Great Wall Motor carmaker to build $500 million plant in Russia
All car plants based their manufacture powers not on men but robots. Russia does not need assemblies or plants but new technologies, new factories were people could be employed in greater number. Russia needs to increase higher standard of living. It will not achieve that goal through investments in car plants.
Whatever one thinks about current changes in the world I’d recommend to be aware of China.
ormer US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright will head a team of US observers to supervise Ukraine’s upcoming presidential election, scheduled for May 25, the Voice of America radio station said on Friday.! !
Dusting off “Half-Bright”,who suffers from a serious ailment CJD (mad-cow disease) to the Ukraine to supervise an illegal election to vote in a neo-Nazi as junta leader of the country is such a blight on human rights and democracy that beggars the imagination.Half-Bright is there to see that the US/CIA candidate wins by a “thumping majority” (110%) and claim legitimacy
Crazy Ivan says…
@ Anon 20 May, 2014 22:07
I repeat myself here and I will write the same words I wrote half an hour ago in comments to the Saker’s “How the conflict in the Ukraine is seen by the rest of the world” (I made some changes.)
Wait a moment. You are damn are wrong.
You must take into account all conditions under which present Russia exists.
When Mr Putin came to Kreml he moved all military budget money to improve, keep updated and planning new nuclear weapons at the expense of conventional arms. Someone wise wrote about it, not me.
That’s why Russia lags 20-30 years behind Western military technologies.
Did he choose right or not? Answer yourself.
In 2014 Russia is in half road to full modernization set for 2020. Just like China.
Does this portend or induce impotence?
Now few words on Russia and China relations as Chinese are part of present world events’ equation.
The (in)famous gas deal is a thorn in Russian ass because Chinese felt strong and think they can dictate Russia every nonsense. They are vulnerable to be break up into smaller provinces but are bluffing all the time.
It is Russia which has advantage in those negotiations. China wants too much lately.
Beijiing falls short of international vision
By Francesco Sisci
They are trying to be “too” independent if not too “hegemonic” in this nascent new world.
Reading your list of ten political benefits the AngloZionist Empire would derive from a Russian intervention, one cannot but conclude: **checkmate**.
Concerning “the time works against Kiev” mantra … … one is dealing here with acute problems of today, not geological epochs (!) where “time” would have any chance to effect changes…
an informative link to get the big picture: http://www.dw.de/ukraine-crisis-reaches-into-the-arctic/a-17640376
What is happening? Is this act a bluff to legitimize the presidential election in the eyes of the world by making ‘peace’ with Eastern Ukrainians, asking them to vote, just to resume the operations after the result is out, when, with the votes ‘showing the support of the people for the new government’, the brutal crackdown on ‘separatists’ can be more easily justified as they represent an ‘anti-democratic, Russia-backed’ force? Or are the Germans getting involved, and behind the scenes concessions are being made to satisfy Russia?
Call me cynical, but the Empire has all their guys in place right now, and unless the ‘threats’ from Germany really exist (the ‘threats’ are that the US will not help Ukraine (it won’t) and without Russia, the EU will also not help it, meaning the shabbos goyim will in time be swept from office by an impoverished population, perhaps by force), this is a bluff being carried on the Empire’s orders.
Crazy Ivan says… (asks rather)
There is another Strelkov report:
Игорь Стрелков: враг начал пристрелку центра города
Igor Strelkov: enemy began shooting town’s center
Would someone be kind to translate the text? Using Yandex of course and few corrections.
Strelkov took care of Slavyansk citizens and said sad remarks. I hope Russians know the data well. Well, I’m sure they know but will they use it in the course of decision making?
Crazy Ivan says…
@ ThatJ 20 May, 2014 23:37
> What is happening? Is this act a bluff to legitimize the presidential election
Yes, it is. Translate yourself Igor Strelkov report:
Anonymous said…20 May, 2014 17:04
“The war is over!
Ukrainian MPs call for immediate troop withdrawal from country’s east.”
That is another zionazi scam. RT should have looked a bit deeper before publishing that.
Меморандум без мира (The Memorandum without peace)
(Yandex translation, in 2 parts)
“The Parliament was going to take a Memorandum calling to consolidate Ukraine’s neutral status and return the military to the South-East of the Republic in the places of their permanent deployment. However, after today’s edits Memorandum does not require withdrawal of all security forces and stop ATO. So, the “special operation” will continue.
Ukraine’s Parliament on Tuesday evening adopted the Memorandum of peace and consent”. The draft Memorandum on the eve in the Parliament made a Deputy from the former ruling Party of regions Vadim Novinsky. However, compared to the first variant of the project disappeared call for complete cessation of “special operations” in the South-East of Ukraine.
In the initial release stated: “the Verkhovna Rada called for the restoration of law and order by stopping the bloodshed, to stop the anti-terrorist operations in the South and East of Ukraine and the return of servicemen involved in the antiterrorist operation, to their places of permanent deployment”.
It is noteworthy that granting the Parliament the powers of the President of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov was read out at the meeting of the original, that is an entirely different option than many initially misled. “Parliament calls for an immediate return participating in military places of permanent dislocation”, – read Turchynov. These words caused a sensation.
But then intentionally or accidentally – in the Verkhovna Rada substitution occurred. Formally, in writing, adopted a completely different document. The call to stop ATO it already is not present and the return of servicemen furnished with a bunch of important qualifications – only “subject to the release of the hostages and administrative buildings, weapons collection of all illegal groups”.
After today’s “edits” disappeared norm of non-aligned status of Ukraine.
An item on fixing the Constitution of Ukraine the status of Russian and other languages, after all of the changes adopted in such wording: “Along with the constitutional status of Ukrainian as the state language of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine will ensure the guaranteed status of the Russian language. The state will ensure the maintenance of minority languages in places of their compact residence”.
Recall that the original version Novinsky essentially promised the Russian language status in the Constitution. “To achieve peace and the consent of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine will ensure the constitutional recognition of the status of the Russian language”, – was said in it. But eventually, the term “constitutional” has disappeared, too, but once again underlined the importance of the Ukrainian language.”
“At voted Memorandum no provisions for direct elections of regional leaders by the residents of the areas, but there is a commitment to adopt a law on local referenda.
Eventually voted 252 MP, in particular, many deputies from the Party of regions, “Batkivshchyna” party and faction KICK. Deputies of the Communist party of the document is not supported in connection with the amendments of the “world” Memorandum in this edition is already not carried. Refused to vote for the Memorandum and deputies of the “Freedom”, but obviously other reasons.
“I had never approved, and many deputies, said the newspaper OPINION MP from the ruling party “Batkivshchyna” Oleksandr Briginets. – Memorandum was of formal character, for example, I do not agree with the point that supported the Geneva conventions, they issued vague,” said Briginets. Unlike the Communists, to whom the document was too hard, MP from the “Batkivshchyna” found it too moderate and undecided in relation to Russia.
What Briginets agree with the opposition, is the fact that the document was written dull. “Very vague point about the Russian language. It is not clear what it was to ensure the status of the Russian language. What status? The status of the national minority or the status of the state language? Because of this large number of MPs, not knowing the precise wordings, abstained, and these people had a lot of different factions, and not just in “Freedom” and the Communists,” said Briginets.
“I heard that Tyagnibok considered it as a capitulation, nobody knows how it will go further,” said the newspaper LOOK the head of the Parliament of the Donetsk national Republic Denis Pushilin. According to him, to withdraw the troops from the South-East in any case will not let radical forces that are now aim to control the operation.
“This document, which is loud name “Memorandum”, which simply is another act of populism. They are ready to sign anything, but in fact we see them more. Continues to kill our fellow citizens in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. And what they have signed, we know,” said the Chairman of the Parliament.
This Pushilin do not see any sense in the political negotiations. “Dialogue with those who represent Kiev, principally impossible. We can talk only with the participation of mediators and only on the exchange of hostages and the conclusion from our territory occupying forces”, – said the Chairman of the Parliament.
“I’d be this Memorandum did not vote, said the newspaper LOOK former MP from the Party of regions, former candidate for President of Ukraine Oleg Tsarev. – There are supported elections 25, we just have not recognize, and many other things, for example, round tables on which there are no representatives of the South-East. This is an attempt to close the eyes of the citizens of the South-East people to come to the elections and about something agreed”.
“It is possible that this is one of the political moves, and before the elections, 25 we still can see the different configurations of these political moves, circumstances can radically change,” said the newspaper VIEW, one of the leaders of Donetsk resistance, Commissioner of the social-Patriotic movement “Eastern front” Nikolai Solntsev.
Meanwhile in Slavyansk previously continued firing. Ukrainian law-enforcers claimed four injured in a missile attack by the militias in the night of Wednesday roadblock in Slavyansk, Donetsk region.”
There is zero chance the zionazi quislings in the junta would ever offer a reasonable compromise, since Israel/USA/EU are only interested in using Ukraine as a tool to bring down Russia and prevent a Russian-Chinese econ block challenging their econ-mil dominance.
Crazy Ivan says…
Saker, that map would complete your text supporting your views on complex state of affairs in Ukraine (lack of e.g. clear-cut lines):
Wish I could see a group of American volenteers like the Abraham Lincoln Brigade who served in the Spanish Civil War against the Fascist forces of Franco! Back then thousands joined up to fight. Would really be a PR blow to the US and the west. I suppose the US would consider such volenteers as traitors…
If it is so important to not get drawn into an invasion, why not help the resistance with more weapons or deniable help? At times, it seems that the Russians don’t want the rebels to win – they just want to use them as negotiating leverage. That way, Russia can go back to being happy with a new Party of Regions and oligarchs.
Something different is in the air this week. Many Western news outlets have dropped to almost no coverage of Ukraine or have actually published op-eds like the recent Forbes item or several recent Guardian pieces which acknowledge Russia’s concerns.
The effect of the IMF intervention, then, acting as it does in the interest of western creditors rather than the Ukrainian people, will be only to further impoverish the population of Ukraine.
And the senseless killing goes on.
Twenty-four Ukrainian servicemen have died during the counter-terrorism operation in the east of Ukraine, Security Service of Ukraine’s (SBU) Chief Valentyn Nalyvaichenko reported.
“As of today 24 soldiers from the Interior Ministry of Ukraine, interior troops, and Alfa special forces have died. The losses are serious, the injuries are [also] serious,” he said at a press conference in Kyiv on Monday.
As much as I hate those assholes some are just stupid kids, never been laid or had a good job with a future.
Meanwhile US goes hard after China for cyber war. Pivot doesn’t work when both feet are in thick mud.
Yats and Uke FM are telling Germans to get serious about sanctions. Anything undertaken by capable Euro diplomats get twisted out of shape. Steinmeier would rather be talking silk road not hopeless Ukraine political culture.
But in Kiev itself I’m wondering if there is a bit of a crisis going on with the interim government. As far as I understand it, interests of oligarchs is reflected in Rada so if enough of these feel their interests are not being met coup could fall even before election. There seems to be a lot of concerned oligarchs all over Ukraine these days.
With Kuchma’s recent appearance a reminder that not so much has changed in Ukraine since this 1995 paper.
Therefore, analysis of the nomenklatura of the 1990s should be based on two points. First, except for the nomenklatura, there was no other social class in Ukraine capable of governing the country. On the other hand, as a cover-up for the nomenklatura, democrats were selected, who, in the view of the nomenklatura, were unable to do their jobs professionally. The only exception were the state administrations in Halychyna, where the nomenklatura often, but not always, gave away its power.
As a reminder to the oligarchs here is a verse from the Lay of Igor’s Campaign (transl. Zenkovsky)
The Appeal to Prince Yaroslav of Chernigov and Vseslav’s Heirs
Oh sons of Yaroslav and grandsons of Vseslav, lower your banners,
Put your dented swords into their sheaths!
You do not deserve the glory of your ancestors,
since, through your feuding,
you brought the infidels into the Russian land,
into the domain of Vseslav.
Your warring brought Kuman violence (to Russia).
@ Anon 21 May, 2014 01:11
> Back then thousands joined up to fight.
You mean thousands of American Communists.
BTW. Did your Abraham Lincoln Brigade’s tough men raped nuns on Catholic Church altars then killed them?
Franco saved His country from Lenin style communist hands.
You confuse apples with oranges.
Document:The Spanish Civil War
‘In addition to it’s politically incorrect revisionist nature, the article is included on Wikispooks for the light it sheds on both the involvement of the Irish Brigade of IRA leader Eoin O’Duffy and the dominant role of Jewish Bolsheviks in the control and conduct of the Republican campaigns.’
And I will set the Egyptians against the Egyptians: and they shall fight every one against his brother, and every one against his neighbour; city against city, and kingdom against kingdom.
Sound familiar? You really want the Lincoln Brigades in Ukraine?
There’s a new documentary on Odessa… Is there really anything new in it?
The best elements of the historic, revolutionary and religious traditions of the region are now starting to assert themselves in opposition to the worst. Anti-oligarchy, which was part of the Maidan is now coming around full circle in the East, where the Black Army and the Red Army once prevailed. Strelkov identifies with the Whites. After Odessa and Mariupol there will be no going back, and the US/EU/NATO/Kiev can’t administer a police state going forward. Russia will not fire a shot. As the East moves in a better direction, towards social justice, is there a force in the West that will nationalize capital and reject the IMF?
The memorandum may cause a split in the military. The national guard, death squads, extreme nationalists won’t go back to the barracks. This might be the intention of the memorandum.
Igor Strelkov’s plea for help may be intended for the ears of those in the Ukrainian military that are sympathetic to the the east.
Putin has not intervened in Eastern Ukraine because he doesn’t need to. As more and more atrocities are committed by the psychopathic Ukrainian Oligarchs, in particular, the mass-murderer, Igor Kolomoisky (the guy that arranged for the Odessa massacre), the more and more people will rise-up in the East. As long as Putin can stall, this will continue to drain resources out of Kiev as well the EU while making the situation on the ground more and more unfavorable for the West (all the while the Ukrainian debt clock keeps ticking). If he prolongs the situation long enough it will lead to the Ukraine defaulting on their TOTAL debt of $100Billion (as per: Forbes, AP, Bloomberg and owed mainly to Western Banks) and that will rip a deep hole in the EU’s economy. The EU may even start having to pay for Ukraine’s gas bill directly to Russia when Russia pulls the plug in June (as per contract). Time is on Putin’s side, not on the side of the Bankers and the autocratic euro-facists of Brussels.
And why should he commit the blunder of intervening overtly when he can achieve more intervening covertly. Since the West has made the strategic mistake of already accusing him of covert involvement (before Russia has done so), Putin has already paid the diplomatic and economic price for this fabrication, so there is no disincentive now for him to hold back covert actions.
As a citizen of a NATO country I am shocked by the stunning level of incompetence that has crept into our Foreign Policy Institutions; I am sure that experienced Western foreign policy professionals from an earlier era are shaking their heads in disbelief at the incompetent and emotionally unstable amateurs we have today in the US State Dept. (Nuland,Rice, Powers and the lying Zombie, John Kerry).
Here’s a post I left on Infowars under the pseudonym “GoReadSakersBlog” ;-)
Below is my take on Ukraine, a view shared by many of my family in the Indian Military:
Many folks don’t seem to understand (Saker excepted) that the people of Eastern Ukraine have been pretty apathetic and ambivalent until the Junta started shooting at them. The last thing Putin wants is to annex Eastern Ukraine, for many reasons, among which are the following:
1) If he annexes Eastern Ukraine, it becomes his tar-baby (and he’ll have to shoulder half of Ukraine’s $100Billion debt),
2) For now, keeping Eastern Ukraine legally part of Ukraine ensures that it remains the EU’s & the US’s problem; a draining & increasingly uncontrollable tar-baby that’ll keep them bogged down trying to deal with an uncontrollable insurgency. Under this scenario, Russia can achieve its objectives with plausible deniability at minimal cost (weapons, covert ops, logistics) while draining their enemy.
3) Eastern Ukrainians have not shown sufficient initiative to merit the costs to Russia to help them; too many of them are sitting on the sidelines, the time is not ripe for an intervention. In war you want the ground conditions to be optimal before you commit your forces (covert or overt).
4) If Eastern Ukraine becomes part of Russia, then Russian laws, institutions and regulations will oblige the Russian State to sink billions of dollars into normalizing Eastern Ukraine to Russian levels and standards; a massive cost that, right now, in the short and medium term, would harm the entire Russian economy; it cost Germany over $700 Billion 1980s dollars to integrate East Germany into West Germany. Eastern Ukraine has 20 million people at 1/3 Russia’s economic level. The customs union is a much better way to go, obliging the member states to shoulder their own responsibility to develop their economies without forcing subsidies and entitlements from Russia.
5) Annexation will bring in many ethnic Ukrainians (anti-Putin) into Russia as well as Russian-Speaking Ukrainians (who are luke-warm supporters of Putin). Those demographics would damage his United Russia party’s chances in the next election. Putin knows a trap when he sees it.
6) Annexation will hand all of Western Ukraine straight to the EU & NATO, bringing NATO right onto Russia’s new border of the Dnieper River. Whereas a unified Ukrainian state will deny the West even Western Ukraine.
It’s much more advantageous for Russia to engineer the situation where the East of Ukraine stays part of Ukraine in a Federation or Confederation, thereby permanently denying the EU any possibility of ever acquiring any part of Ukrainian territory (because the East has the majority of the population and electorate and won’t allow an EU merger). Plus the Ukraine can act as huge buffer-zone between Russia & NATO. If Putin Annexes Ukraine it will bring the EU and NATO right onto his “new” border. Putin is a very smart man, he’s thinking many moves ahead, from many angles, not emotionally like some fools would like him to do.
Have you noticed that it’s the State Dept and the CIA that are doing everything in their power to provoke an uprising in Eastern Ukraine (by encouraging Kiev to commit further atrocities)? It’s as if the West is trying to force a partition. That’s because a partition is to their advantage: the West knows that the bungling idiots in Kerry’s State Dept. especially that lighweight, Victoria Nuland have so badly mishandled this coup, that have lost any chance of seizing the whole of Ukraine, so they’re trying attain what is attainable: Western Ukraine. A partition will allow them to at least swallow Western Ukraine right away, an unpartitioned Ukraine will result in the West losing the entire gambit; an unpartitioned Ukraine cannot be controlled by the West and denies them ownership/access to all of Ukraine including Western Ukraine.
it has been a great SITREP, thank you very much.
Hello banana republic of Donetsk
your are very funny, unfortunately.
but i’m very very sad for Donetsk’s citizens,
they don’t deserve your propaganda
If you like your dictator Putine, please go in Russia and let live the Ukrainian people without fear of your guns and brain washing.
People need to work, think freely and be happy, this will not happen with your crazy republic.
Putine invided your country and stole Crimea, he don’t care about donbass. You are on your own, please leave Donetsk and let the city to their citizens.
Looks like I went to sleep too soon? The text of the memorandum document changed after the vote?
I hope not.
Meeting the Donbass Battalion: Russian Roulette in Ukraine (Dispatch 39)
With the Ukrainian army struggling to contain the grab for power by the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) in the Donetsk Oblast, armed pro-Ukrainian militias have been quietly taking matters into their own hands.
One of these groups, the Donbas Battalion, has been attacking DPR checkpoints and occupied buildings. After two weeks of careful negotiations they finally agreed for VICE News to visit their clandestine base in what used to be a children’s summer camp in the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region. They were cautious about revealing their location as their last HQ was discovered and attacked by pro-Russia forces, forcing them to find an alternative.
We watched them train and interviewed their leader, Semyan, before being invited on an operation the following day. In the town of Velyka Novosilka, the Donbas Battalion tore down the DPR flag and replaced it with Ukraine’s colors, reinstalled the pro-Ukrainian administrator, and lectured the local police on loyalty and duty — all at gunpoint. We then left Velyka Novosilka quickly, as there were reports of armed pro-Russia groups heading our way.
The Ukrainian army’s “anti-terror” operation has so far failed to dislodge separatists from their strongholds in Sloviansk and Donetsk. But the flexibility of the Donbas Battalion, and other groups like it, could help turn the tide in Kiev’s favor. Equally, they could help further destabilize an already volatile region. Yet with the Ukrainian presidential elections taking place on May 25, it’s likely that Semyan and his men will be busy in the days ahead — and we’ll soon find out.
How do you fight against someone who is using dirty tricks?
Should you start using them too or ignore and have patience (and risk losing)? What´s the best strategy?
An honest question, because I seems to me that no behaviour is too low for the West at the moment (Hitler comparisons, unending sanctions, lying and more lying …).
My wife found this very disturbing report – is it true,she says yes, I can not believe it to be true, But as she said to me – “9 years ago – you said same about 9/11 when I pointed out a few things you had missed” :-))
For those who can not read or get translation – basically its about 2 different finding (1 of 180 and another of 300 bodies) of Ukraine National Army men – executed and all organs removed !!!
U.S. also wants to divide europe and prevent Russia from moving closer to Germany and europe.
Crazy Ivan says…
On Memorandum and Geneva Accord in a Nutshell
I’m no politician, journalist or political analyst. So I may allow myself not to read the bullshits.
Messrs. Lavrov and Kerry may had a funny play concocting such a turd, for me it’d be waste of my gray cells.
The Geneva Accord was cosmically prone to different interpretations and so spacious as the tents in Harry Potter books where one could fly Jumbo Jet inside if he wanted to.
Memorandum born few days before phony presidential election may only exhumes fetid of hypocrisy and whoreness equally strong as the American hubris which drives the circus via CIA masters.
Have a nice day.
Re: creating a snapshot offline version of the saker blog
I tried httrack, and it kind of works. If you check your emails, you’ll see where you can get it.
Re emails: Does “No answer” mean:
* you are too busy
* email ended up in spam folder
* you could not un-gpg
I e.g. sent one email (using my real name and email address) on “Sat, 17 May 2014 04:11:59 +0200” with the subject “Re: your blog”.
In any event, if you could create an blogger xml export with comments and put that somewhere where we can download it, that would be great. Maybe I or someone can turn it into something browseable.
Getting by with a little help from my friends.
Only ripples on the surface but indications of longer strategies and additional vectors.
Sherlock Holmes would find Ukraine an interesting case.
It rises above the ordinary because Putin, in an unbelievably brilliant stroke, annexed Crimea without firing a shot. Subsequent events prove that was entirely unexpected by his opponents.
His opponents? Don’t we know who they are? I don’t think so. Not really.
But those opponents, in a paroxysm of rage, have shown cards they, in retrospect, probably would much have preferred to keep concealed.
Card One? Complete control of the mainstream media in the West. What an error to display that card. But they did.
That is why your blog, Saker, is of such enormous importance. Keep it up. I wonder how many hits you have these days?
That was quick – after a mere decade:
Russia and China seal historic $400bn gas deal