- China has officially strongly criticized any sanctions saying that they would be useless.
- Another six cities of the eastern Ukraine have rebelled.
- Dmitryi Olegovich Rogozin Russian Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Russia and Deputy Prime Minister of Russia in charge of defense industry has declared that Russia will respond to words with words and to actions with actions. For example, he said, if the US would try to hurt the Russian aerospace industry they could fly their astronauts to the International Space Station themselves.
- Oleg Tsarev, one of the most popular political figures from the eastern Ukraine officially quit the Presidential race explaining that it was impossible for him to participate.
- Mikhail Dobkin, a top Party of Regions figure and close friend of the Major of Kharkov Gennadi Kermes – who has been shot and is in critical condition in an Israeli hospital declared that he is also thinking of quitting the Presidential race.
- Russian pilots have reported that the GPS signal over Ukraine appears to have been degraded by the USA. The USA also did that in Libya and during the 08.08.08 Ossetia. Luckily, the Russian constellation of GLONASS satellites is at its full capacity (24) and it can easily take over.
- US Secretary of State John Kerry:”Today Russia seeks to change the security landscape of Eastern and Central Europe, we have to make it absolutely clear to the Kremlin that NATO territory is inviolable we will defend every single inch of it.”
- In Kiev the Right Sector and the Maidanites have fought each other
Turchinov admits that his operation has failed:”I would like to say frankly that at the moment the security structures are unable to swiftly take the situation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions back under control. Security personnel tasked with the protection of citizens are helpless. More than that, some of these units either aid or co-operate with terrorist groups. Our task is to stop the spread of the terrorist threat first of all in the Kharkiv and Odessa regions.”
- It has been announced by the military authorities in Russia that two newcomers will participate in the next May 9th (aka “Victory Day”) parade in Moscow: a Spetsnaz unit in its new bullet-proof combat fatigues and silenced rifles and a Naval Infantry unit from the Black Sea Feet which will be flying the flag of the Russian Crimean Republic. I can just about imagine the rage of the NATO attaches invited to watch the parade (which they always are each year).
- The pro-US liberal activist Boris Nemtsov has committed political suicide by going on Ukie TV and comparing Putin to Stalin. Not that he has much to lose since his “Parnas” party was firmly pegged in the single digits.
- Nemtsov, Khodorkovsky, Kasparov and Navalnyi and a few others are basically political corpses now
- On the same program on Ukie TV which featured Nemtsov, a well-know Ukrainian nationalist, Iurii Lutsenko, seriously declared that the “genetic code of the Ukrainian people give them the ability to live outside lies, whereas the genetic code of childern of Gengis Khan makes them willing to live in lies and spread the patriotic syphillis“. His comments about the genetic makeup was made particularly comical since he was sitting next to a Jew (Nemtsov), on a TV show hosted by a Jew (Savik Shuster) and that he was co-organizing the conference which invited Nemtsov to Kiev with another famous Jew (Khodorkovsky). I wonder why these Jews who usually are hyper-sensitive to “genetic” issues all remained silent and smiling when a neo-Nazi nationalist was seriously discussing how the Asia genes of Russians made them different and less capable of opposing lies than the putative Ukrainian “race”.
- The USA and EU have adopted further symbolic sanctions on Russia which only serve one purpose: to convince the Russians that the West cannot and will not take any meaningful punitive measures against Russia.
- Finally, the US is gleefully reporting that sanctions are hurting Russia which is now suffering from a capital outflow. This is partially true, there are signs of capital outflow, but this is speculative capital anyway which, like in 08.08.08 is moved out by western plutocrats in response to an anti-Russian campaign and which will soon be right back. So far, there are absolutely no signs of disinvestment for the simple reason that the Western plutocrats are not willing to suffer the consequences of such a move.
I might have mentioned his here, but there is a great Russian saying about making empty threats. It goes like this: “to try to scare a hedgehog with a naked butt“. That is exactly what the US and EU are doing now: they are trying to scare Russia with sanctions which will hurt them infinitely more than they would hurt Russia. Not only that, but the very notion that slapping 15 or 30 people with a 6 months travel ban into the Eurozone will break the will of a people which withstood events like the 900 days of the blockade of Leningrad by the German military (with hunger, cold and artillery and Luftwaffe bombing raids every day) is laughable.
|click to enlarge|
The good news today is the admission by Turchinov that he lost the Lugansk and Donetsk Oblast and that what he as to do now is to prevent these events from spreading to other parts of the Ukraine such as the Odessa and Kharkov regions (see map). My personal feeling is that Kharkov is gone too. But Odessa might be more complicated. The situation in Dnepropetrovsk is even more complex.
What could happen is a two-step disintegration of the Ukraine. In the first step the Lugansk, Donetsk and Kharkov regions would break off and form their own independent republic. Then a relative lull will take place between the upcoming Presidential elections (assuming they happen), the payment of pensions, the price increases and the total termination of Russian gas supplies to the Ukraine. Then over the summer and early Fall the rest of the Ukraine will explode in social protests which will push regions such as Odessa or Zaporozhie to break off while the oligarchs and neo-Nazis battle each other for the control of Kiev. The single most powerful factor affecting the Ukrainian disintegration process will be the economic boom in Crimea. If last year the Ukrainians compared the economic prosperity of Russians and EU-members, this year they will compare the economic situation in the junta controlled Ukraine (which I call “Banderastan”) and Crimea. As for the People’s Republic of Donetsk, it will have to join Russia sooner or later if only for security reasons.
Then, I can only express my amused amazement at Kerry’s latest expression of hot air. What does “we have to make it absolutely clear to the Kremlin that NATO territory is inviolable we will defend every single inch of it” supposed to mean?! Does Kerry seriously believe that anybody – nevermind the Russians – will seriously believe that Russian tanks are about to attack NATO? This also begs the question of how exactly would NATO propose to fight Russia if the latter occupied the Baltic Statges (which Russia neither wants nor needs).
Kerry is turning into a full-time buffoon who makes Hillary look rational.
On last thing: I have heard that something close to 70% of Americans are unhappy with Obama and is his handling of the Ukrainian crisis, while Putin’s popularity is pegged around 80% of support.
Looks to me like the Russian people and the American people very much have a similar point of view. Too bad that a parasitical plutocracy of 1% has put a non-entity like Obama in power.
What will happen with the Baltics if Nato gets involved though? Does a skirmish in Ukraine where NATO units participate translate into open conflict with Russia in the Baltics, sounds to me like the Russian “non citizen” minority as the Baltic Europeans like to call their fellow citizens will come under considerable pressure.
What I don’t get with Fursev is his professed admiration for Alexandre del Valle, comrade in arms of Bat Ye’or.
Does anyone know what is happening in West Ukraine?
Any protest, preparation for the elections, etc.
Does anyone know what is happening in West Ukraine?
Saker, the sanctions seem to be clearly targeting Putin’s *personal* support among the Russian commercial elite, rather than targeting impersonal economic institutions. Is the Washington regime thinking it can undercut Putin’s network of personal support by these sanctions? For example, if Russia were to target someone like Soros in order to get him to stop supporting Obama? Is that what these personal sanctions are about, trying to get the Russian elite to abandon Putin? If that is the case, what chance does this tacttic have of succeeding? Zero? Slightly above zero?
Like I said earlier, that both Obama and Putin are in cohort.
As I said earlier:
1. Crimea was given to Russia on a Silver Platter.
2. The rest of Ukraine will be Federalized as per Putin’s wishes.
Those who understand Middle Policy, can see go to the latest RT article and see that Putin is in the driving seat:
Putin, Bahraini crown prince discuss bilateral relations, Mideast problems
Read more: http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_04_30/Putin-Bahraini-crown-prince-discuss-bilateral-relations-Mideast-problems-0273/
The best news in the whole century!
The events of the last few days have been decisive for pro-Russians. But of all of the events the one most significant was the march of the far-right parties in Kiev.
Rumor had it that they were going to try something prior to the elections, perhaps on May 9th, as they feel that legitimate elections would not be good for their appearance of legitimacy, which comes from the power of the street.
The presidential election was bossed by the West to put Poroshenko in office (notice how “Klitch” dropped out like a good little boy), but the events in the East and the far right uprising will tarnish the legitimacy.
In the long run, the question will be which side is more attractive to the average person on the street? IMF backed West Ukraine, or Russia?
As Ronald Reagan once asked “Are you better off now then you were four years ago?”
In Ukraine, if anyone is asked are you better off now than you were 4 months ago, the answer would be a resounding NO!
The death watch of the Kiev putch is on.
It is apparently SITREP-update April 29, not 20th.
I believe Kerry is operating under the misapprehension that the Ukraine is a member of NATO. This was how it was supposed to turn out, and just because it isn’t true now, it will be true in the future he imagines, so by backward induction it is true now. I hope we have that issue cleared up. He is selling pie in the sky. It will soon be the case that a substantial proportion of the American people possibly believe, or will shortly believe that the Ukraine is in fact a member of NATO, just like Israel.
@Alex: thanks I corrected the date
Nice writing, Saker. But that would be Mikhail Dobkin in bullet point 5, not Dokin, yes?
~~~~~~What does “we have to make it absolutely clear to the Kremlin that NATO territory is inviolable we will defend every single inch of it” supposed to mean?!~~~~~~
It serves the demonization of Russia. For example if I shout at you in public “If you beat up my children then I will call the police!” This is in itself a perfectly fine warning, nothing untrue or morally wrong about it, but its effect is that since I say such a thing to you, and in such a tone, then to the bystanders it must mean that not only are you capable of such evil deeds, but that you are also close to commiting such a crime. That’s how you can demonize someone without getting into legal trouble, or being called a liar.
‘What does “we have to make it absolutely clear to the Kremlin that NATO territory is inviolable we will defend every single inch of it” supposed to mean?’
It means “the pressure to jack up arms spending to enrich our corporate sponsors never ends.”
In response to the stupidity of today’s NY Times op ed pieces, one reader pointed out the following statistics:
“Rachel Maddow showed a chart tonight where over 70% of the American people support the President on his decision to not send troops to Ukraine and over 60% agreed that we should not be arming the rebels, based on a recent Pew Poll.
Then, she showed today’s results from the Washington Post/ABC News Poll. When those polled were asked if they approved of President Obama’s policies toward Ukraine, only 34% approved. How is that possible, she wondered. They support each policy but not when lumped together. It makes no sense.”
America once again loses the forrest for the trees.
Crazy Ivan says…
1. Kiev authorities promise night military exercises
In Polish but use translate.google.com.
Some commenters’ texts (old ones were erased as the news was updated) suggested “in order to remove Maidan”. The more so the exercises are to be performed in the Kiev center.
2. “Pashynsky assures situation in Sloviansk will be localized in coming days” from
Crazy Ivan says…
Of course, all information about Kiev’s night military drills should be read with a pinch of salt:
This is quite an update, Saker. In a grim kind of way, the news looks pretty good, though it ain’t over til it’s over. I keep thinking of Pete Seeger and “Waist Deep in the Big Muddy”, written about Vietnam but pretty descriptive of Afghanistan, Iraq and a few other mostly-forgotten wars.
But wouldn’t our degrading GPS over Ukraine affect “our” side in any military action? Can we really be dumb enough to cut off our own nose to spite our face quite like that? Oh well, at least we Americans aren’t alone in our xenophobic stupidity; Mr. Lutsenko would feel right at home on a number of websites, bars, and neighborhoods here. I do know a couple of Ukrainians with names thought to be Tatarian in origin though — maybe their Uniate faith protects them from syphilis? I’m a little embarrassed to ask…
I still don’t get John Kerry though; he’s scared of something and I don’t think it’s Russia. And yes, while Obama is probably brighter than Baby Bush, he’s every bit as uncaring, uncurious and unconcerned. But even if he were inclined to actually plan, evaluate options, set policies, govern, at this point could any president do more in foreign policy than simply choose between Neo-Con Option A, B or C? (The only question in domestic policy seems to be how quickly to siphon off whatever is left).
But Saker, back to my nagging fears: do you really think we won’t do anything more than sanctions? You really think we’re not dumb (and arrogant) enough to try anyhow?
Thanks for the update.
“Kerry is turning into a full-time buffoon who makes Hillary look rational.”
That’s pretty scary isn’t.
Thanks for the GPS info.
1. Up in Your Sky go to What’s Up, click on this
2. Then–see them on a map.
3. Click on See what’s up in your sky.
4. Click on Draw obits.
This is real time so give the pages time to load and it use your IP address location with a little time you can make it work for anywhere in the world
Saker, what are the logistics when Lugansk, Donetsk and Kharkov regions become independent. Are they self-sustainable that they have an adequate revenue base? How about the oil/gas/water supplies – do they have to still relay on Kiev or have it shipped from Russia? Also, what happens to the existing debts of Ukraine. If one by one, regions declare independence, the Western Ukraine will end up holding the bag. At that point, will it even be collectable? The banksters are not going to like it one bit…..karma is a b**** :)…
Well, there is this…
Transcarpathian region of Ukraine declared its independence
April 24, announced the establishment of the Transcarpathian republic. This republic Ruthenians.
Ruthenians – original people whose representatives do not consider themselves Ukrainians do not speak Ukrainian. They do not see their future in the nationalist state, which are trying to build the current fascist government in Kiev (and in essence – the junta which seized power).
Starting today, April 24, the state of the Ruthenians – Transcarpathian Rus – begins a new era. Recall that the former Transcarpathian region is situated on the west of Ukraine, and its inhabitants are ethnically different from the main western Ukrainian population, in particular – from residents of Lviv and other western regions of Ukraine.
So, is this a serious declaration? Apparently Kiev doesn’t think so, because no one in Kiev appears to even know about it.
Fascinating! Will they apply to join Slovakia if they feel thteatened? If they do and are let in (hugely improbable, but who knows odds of anything these days?) would Kiev send thugs against them? Would John Kerry praise this aggression on a NATO member (Slovakia) because this a “democratic” aggression?
Saker, can you explain why do you think that situation in Odessa is more complicated?
For us in Serbia, Odessa is very important! Why? Simply, because if Odessa also joins Russia, we will get Russia only 300 km from Serbia! That would be an enormous moral boost for all Serbians.
As you may know, the president of Republika Srpska, Serbian part of Bosnia, gave a statement in todays interview with Newsweek in which he stated that Serbs will make a referendum on partitioning from Bosnia. We need Russian support! Closer Russia is to us, more likely it is that Russia will defend Serbs if NATO tries to attack us again because of unification of Serbia and Republika Srpska.
So, please, if you know more about Odessa situation, inform us. We are following events very closely, and there is a real pro-Russian euphoria in Serbia since Crimea became a part of Russia.
Too bad that a parasitical plutocracy of 1% has put a non-entity like Obama in power.
It does not matter who is in the power in the USA. They all play for the same club. The captain can and will be changed but the goal remains the same, it is to create the unipolar world in which America will be the sole boss.
Ιts not the 1% but the 20%-30% that benefits from globalization
What probability would you attach to military intervention by US (?UK, ?FR)?
I ask this because the hysteria in the US mainstream media is at an all-time high. They do not call for armed intervention (yet), but they are screaming as loudly as they ever have that Putin is the Greatest Satan since the Fall.
Saker: new to your blog over the last few weeks. You were late with your Sitrep.
Would you expand on your view of the situations in Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov? I have seen very little reports (and I read more than just western sources) concerning Kharkov. A few weeks ago there were some feeble attempts at building takeovers that were put down and then nothing since. I’ve seen nothing about Dnepropetrovsk other than the footballer riot the other day involving hooligans from two teams from there. Why is the situation there complex? I am speaking to the choir when I say that there is no reasonable analysis coming from any Western source. And your analysis at least appears logical.
I agree that Donetsk and Lugansk are lost, but there doesn’t seem to be much going on elsewhere.
Thank you Saker and all commentators
for an interesting blog site. Best Regards from Stockholm!
From the Daily Telegraph:
“John Kerry, the US secretary of state, revealed that American eavesdroppers have overheard intelligence operatives being directed by Moscow.
“We know exactly who’s giving those orders, we know where they are coming from,” he said, in remarks to a private meeting that were leaked on Tuesday.
“Intel is producing taped conversations of intelligence operatives taking their orders from Moscow and everybody can tell the difference in the accents, in the idioms, in the language.”
Just like the ‘documents’ proving tha Saddam had WMDs, produced by Colin Powell before the UN, and just like the ‘proofs’ that Assad had used chemical weapons …
Shocking, this is not an easy task!!!
“Kerry is turning into a full-time buffoon who makes Hillary look rational.” The Saker
Hillary is offensive but gets a nice press spin domestically. Watch Sen. Elizabeth Warren, an anti-crony capitalism Senator that the regular Democratic Party can’t stand. She may unseat Hillary for the nomination in 2016.
Excellent summary and most useful. I’m heartened by the response of the citizens of the United States to this Ukrainian maddness.
Here’s an interesting development. The White House is not blaming the neocons for tricking Obama into the hapless moves in the Ukraine. Sounds like a major CYA emerging in anticipation of a policy failure. Here’s the article Killing the Putin Obama ‘Trust’ Roy McGovern
@Rowan Berkely:would be Mikhail Dobkin in bullet point 5, not Dokin, yes?
Ayup! My bad. Corrected now, thanks a lot!
Apparently the Duma just passed what AFP is called “draconian” measures on blog content. I’m guessing this is what Fursov was talking about but AFP is not always trustable. Does anyone here know any more about what restrictions were actually put in place?
This is an official announcement by the City of Kiev of military exercises on the night of April 30 to May 1st in downtown Kiev.
Now, who is that angel with a sword?
It is non other than Saint Michael.
And who is Saint Michael?
It is the supreme enemy of Satan and all the fallen angels.
Really enjoyed this post.Much thanks again. Keep writing. oqza
I am so happy to find your blog. I have been searching for more correct information on what’s happening in Ukraine. I can’t get it from CTV or CBC or the lost plane channel CNN. Utube and twitter seem to be my only sources and using common sense. Why the western media in Canada seems so biased and uninformed is beyond me. That is not normally the case. This whole Ukraine matter is an ill informed hasty decision made when the events if the Berlin Wall coming down and the nuclear world being rearranged. No thought was given to the details and the peoples feelings at the time. It strikes me that the foreign ministers of the USA and Russia know the final bottom line but need to go through this dance given the history at the end of the Second Wirld war and the fall of communism. Ukraine is really two countries and always has been. Yatsenyuk and the right wingers are trying to grab as much as they can using the possibility of NATO involvement. A crazy time. I wish news stations gave it more time on the ground.
One point that must be emphasized in discussing US policy is that there is no policy — except one of predation. The USG is deeply divided, the neocons circumvent Obama’s line at will, and the executive flies by the seat of its pants. If not for the Joint Chiefs there would be no center — but even they deplete much of their energy in trying to moderate the amateurs in charge (i.e., the politicians and ideologues).
“Some folks in Europe made mistakes, the association agreement became too much of an East-West tug of war. It shouldn’t have been,” US Secretary of State John Kerry reportedly said at a private meeting of the Trilateral Commission in Washington last Friday. His words were quoted by the Daily Beast on Tuesday.
Is that it? Is uber-rich Ketchup Kerry no more than a lackey to the.00000001% ? It sure sounds like he was apologising to his masters for why, when their little putsch hit all those road-bumps, it really wasn’t his fault. Dang. You know, when Carter first got his head turned by that bunch, I thought it was a voluntary thing, just a peanut-farmer overly impressed with all that attention from all that money. Now I’m not so sure. I thought Kerry et. al. only kowtowed to AIPAC and spooks.
@Nora’s question:But wouldn’t our degrading GPS over Ukraine affect “our” side in any military action?
GPS is more than one signal. They are talking about the civilian side of GPS. The military side things are turned up and become more precise. I am not sure if this is done out of necessity due to power available in the system or just a feature, but when the civilian side goes soft, the military side gets more precise.
@Anonymous question: can you explain why do you think that situation in Odessa is more complicated?
I do not know Saker’s reasons, but I can give you one of the things that does complicate this area. Romania. They have already mobilised some of their forces and moving closer to the borders of western Ukraine, Moldova, and Odessa. They have stated it is their responsibility to protect the Romanian speaking people in Odessa. Romania is a NATO country with US troops in country. If Russia is forced to enter Ukraine and NATO wanted to do something, this is one of the several points they would challenge from.
Reasons: your point about Serbs falls into this along with the east side of Moldova and Hungary. Plus the coastline is also a factor. The west wants to keep a wedge in these 3 areas between the Russian sphere of influence.
Slightly off topic, but I wonder did our Serbian poster know that Serbs from the Krajina were invited to settle in the southern and central areas of what we now call Ukraine in the 17th century. Their lands were called New Serbia and they were the first Cossacks. The name Ukraine looks to me like “u Krajina” Lugansk was a Serbian settlement.
What has happened to the 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 160 tanks, etc that we’re ready to put down the eastern rebellion?
Best way to view impressionist art is to stare for a few moments without focusing on any particular spot — and wait for the patterns to emerge. Indeed, the patterns in Ukraine and elsewhere are coming into clearer focus. Sanctions are aimed at Putin’s oligarchs to exert influence over his decisions. Rather quaint for ZATO oligarchs to think their Russian tribal brethren have any real or lasting effect on Putin. But this is clearly the aim. Seems to me that Putin is loyal to Russia foremost. So much time and disinformation efforts wasted trying to psychoanalyze Putin. It’s silly. He holds his cards close to his vest and plays the hand he’s dealt. And seems motivated by principles not recognized by most western analysts. It’s hard for them to dissect “integrity” because they haven’t experienced it in their professional lives. The Achilles-heel for Anglo-Zionist policy-makers is the inability to recognize or model integrity.
The last few days seem more uplifting somehow. Not to ignore the conflict happening on the ground in various locals — but the change in atmosphere is striking. The Kiev putsch looks weaker, more shrill and increasingly scared. They look like the losers they are. That impression is coming through even US MSM! And the turmoil throughout MSM newsrooms throughout America on this story must be epic.
Have no clue how this will play out. Seems like Anglo-Zionists have jumped the shark on Ukraine. A little oligarch vs. oligarch bitch-slapping is a guilty pleasure as long as it doesn’t end in a hot war. Now we have the “Sterling vs Ellison-Oprah-Geffen bread-and-circus-wars” to distract Americans from the middle-class holocaust happening throughout Main Street USA. Sigh.
@Michael Collins above…
“Typo The White House is now (for not) blaming”
The WH knows they’ll be screwed no matter what and the neocons will be the likely target to salve the base of the Democratic Party.
Any Russian speaker here?
What does the description say? I think it has to do with sarcasm, but not sure.
Concerning Kerry and his grasp of reality (or lack thereof), recall the famous quote by Karl Rove:
We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.
Do not expect ‘rational’ behaviour from psychopaths. This quote is an expression of the attitude of people who will do anything they deem necessary to acieve their objectives.
That objective is world domination.
This is May 1914. We are sleep walking into a catastrophe of unconscionable proportions. Gavrillo Princip and a dozen others like him have been put into position (Kim Jong Il?). They are nearly prepared for the final act.
I’m sorry but we won’t be able to stop this from behind our flickering screens. A few will try to take matters into their own hands. Assassinations of world leaders — whether by governments or individuals, will soon become rampant. We’ve been taught all these stories throughout our whole lives. The plan has been initiated.
If you survive you’ll be ‘saved’ by fake aliens. An Anti-Christ will take his seat on the throne of the world. If you don’t believe you will be exterminated. Everthing is in place.
I can think of nothing that might prevent this from happening, except maybe a saboteur who is positioned at critical node and who must act very soon. They have contingencies for this too but if we see a moment of daylight, a breath of a chance, we must be ready to explode and bring these mother fuckers down.
Be ready. And pray.
Sorry — here’s the link for that Kerry quote, plus a lovely picture of him with Ashton. (Not really relevant but every time I see him I wonder what he looks like without his wig…)
New Zealand is far away from all of this. But it is still a 5 eyes partner. Bob Jones, one of our “oligarchs” published an article suggesting we re-look at our relationship with Russia – see
The comments in response are worth reading – seems that even here, the US capacity for interference in the affairs of other countries is seen for what it is, and not appreciated.
Regrettably, Australia seems far less evolved ;-)
Nora, actually, no. Selective Availability introduces measured inaccuracies on a predictable but confidential basis which can be compensated by authorized (non-civilian) GPS receivers. I don’t know anything about the operational details, though. Empires fall when they go on tilt.
Michael Collins, Sen. Warren funnels campaign money to the Democratic Party’s right wing (Begich, Pryor, Landrieu, et al), $10000 a pop. She’s also strongly pro-apartheid, pro-oligarch and liberal (an ideology which, I remind you, is every bit as anti-communist as fascism). She’s putting on a “rebel” act just like Paul Krugman, and for much the same reason: to set the leftmost bound of acceptable discourse in their domain, i.e. to model the Good Democrat.
I don’t know what will happen if and as it becomes known that the Democratic Party is no left-wing outsider but only plays one on television (an insight which seems to be simultaneously confirmed and suppressed regularly every two years), but expatriation looks like a better idea every day.
Anonymous 18:46, assume it’s a cheap bluff intended for the rubes until and unless audio has been released.
First, I would like to thank @A. B. for his explanation two days ago to my question “about who is working the “western” front on propaganda:” It greatly helps me to understand some of the comments in the German press.
Secondly, something seems to have happened. Today we did not have the full propaganda program in the German press.
Only DIE ZEIT had an interesting article by Dr. Andreas Umland (1997-99 NATO Fellow at the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, Palo Alto, California. He lives in Kyiv, while teaching at the National University of “Kyiv-Mohyla Academy”
„Die Ukraine sollte die Wahl absagen“. It boils down to: “That implies that the forthcoming presidential election should be canceled and the Ukraine should became a parliamentary republic. This can happen through a consensus constitutional reform by a vote of 300 Members of Parliament. Second, this approach includes that the new occupants of the highest positions of government should reflect the regional, cultural and demographic composition of the Ukrainian population. Third, political polarization and amateurishness should be avoided by proper use of respected experts.” He is obviously afraid that: “In a possible runoff [Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko] a contest between the two would be meaningless, because their main political goals – a rapid Europeanization of Ukraine , followed by EU accession and simultaneous Atlantic integration – are the same . Many in the east and south of Ukraine would not vote at all in such a runoff election because they do not see their interests represented in either candidate.” The article disappeared after three hours.
The problem with the propaganda in Germany is that looks like tailored to the Americans who don’t know where to find the Ukraine. In Germany, there is still a generation whose grandfathers knew far to well where Kiev lies.
Dear Saker, I really hope that the outcome will be such low level two-step disintegration of the Ukraine. Perhaps the Ukrainian people can then have a fresh start – with Putin advising them how to get rid of Oligarchs ;)).
Ray McGovern former cia.
Russia Today reports on John Kerry’s address to The Atlantic Council at:
He spells out the rationale behind this whole sorry saga:
““Our entire model of global leadership is at stake. If we stand together, if we draw strength from the example of the past and refuse to be complacent in the present, then I am confident that NATO, the planet’s strongest alliance, can meet the challenges”
Its about unchallenged dominance, and not about Ukrainian freedoms. Just as Saker described some months ago.
I can see, son, you are not a Moskal (derogatory for Russian)
This the first and only accurate article I have come across in the Western MSM on events in Ukraine to date.
Seumas Milne in The Guardian.
I guess miracles do happen occasionally
@ the western media in Canada seems so biased and uninformed
I gave up on the western media in Canada the moment they started to talk about double toilets in Sochi. I knew immediately that this was not the source of information any sane individual could trust.
need we say more?
that too with 84% Popularity of Putin ?
Saker, your latest sitrep is very interesting and valuable. It would help though if you could specify the six additional eastern cities where ‘insurrections’ have taken place. I can’t make the count.
The citizens action in Lugansk is very encouraging. And how gratifying it is to see citizens (at least partially)prevail without violence. My sense is that Lugansk is in a more solid position to actually organize a referendum than is Donetsk. Yours?
In Donetsk, whether the military concentration in the north-central region is inactive for fear of Russia or because Kiev is unsure how the troops will respond, they are still in place and the sour stalemate continues. Meantime, the upsurge in Mariupol seems to have been suppressed by national guard troops with substantial citizen casualties and 60+ people rounded up.
I wish I could be as sanguine about Kharkiv as you are. But Donetsk, far less Kharkov, will be hard pressed to organize a referendum before May 25, and before Kiev can mount its own “national referendum”. And all the while. though Turdynov has moderated his bluster, the nasty work of setting up a repressive system gains momentum. Blackwater “trainers” are said to be multiplying, Poroshenko is evidently trying to bring in Israelis as well. ‘Afterthought’, who seems astute, says that “The death watch of the Kiev putsch is on”. Hopefully so, but it does not promise to be a pleasant death.
One unknown, that could rather quickly change the game, resides in the attitude of presumably “on the fence” Ukrainian military commanders. The militarily ridiculous deployments along the Russian border may be designed to scatter them out to make coordination difficult. Some senior officers may have been bribed, others may be waiting for signs activists are winning or to be sure the Russians really do “have their backs”. If–I think when–a major unit comes over the so called “domino effect” may be set in motion.
Less a prediction that a wishful thought: Maybe, given that it was once a Cossack stronghold, collaboration with Cossacks from the south bring a spring storm to Zaporozhye.
Finally, as to Kerry: I called a friend who has long known him and asked if Kerry was always that way. “TRhere was always less to John than met the eye” he replied. “He was always propelled by his own voice. But this…” Kerry did some things right when he first took over. I thought the tough talk was to keep Republicans and the Israeli lobby at bay. Now, it really has the look of rather marked cognitive decline. As they say, I guess, it takes one to know one.
I concur with the commenter above who says even Western MSM are getting desperate as they can no longer hide the incompetence and weakness of the Kiev junta, even while fanatically downplaying the significance of Right Sector and the Svoboda Party (the piece by the Polish contributor to the New York Times who is too young to even remember what Communist Poland was like was particularly egregious, acknowledging the Svoboda Party and Nazi Oleh Tyanhgbok’s presence in photos with McInsane and Victoria Nuland but saying it means nothing because Dmitry Yarosh met with the Israeli Ambassador and foreswore anti-Semitism, as if such claims can be taken at face value).
The AP’s senior Moscow correspondent says today her reporters went to the ‘concentration camp’ in Donetsk region and found that it was an ordinary, EU funded detention facility for illegal migrants into the EU whose construction was funded in 2010. Of course, she couldn’t bother to ask why Ukraine would need a detention facility for illegal EU migrants, is the country overrun with Roma and from former Soviet Central Asia? Or is the presence of an EU-funded detention facility in E. Ukraine supposed to imply that Russians will soon desperately flee Putin’s evil dictatorship for the paradise of the EUSSR once Ukraine joins? At any rate while it may not be a full Nazi style concentration camp, the location of the detention facility makes little sense unless as early as 2010 someone was plotting for the need to be able to round up Donbass people who wouldn’t like what was coming.
Shame on the AP’s Moscow and Kiev bureaus, they have become nothing more than spin doctors. The issue IS NOT that Right Sector or Svoboda poll in the single digits nationally, the issue is whether their yet to be disarmed militias will be the ones counting the votes! AP and Reuters won’t even report the street fighting between ‘Maidan defense’ and Right Sector thugs in Kiev, we have to rely on Russian media for that! Western MSM thus are completely discrediting themselves, as the hysterical NBC/ABC/CBS nightly news reports for the low info voters showed Russian jets and tanks ready to invade Ukraine any moment last week and yet time goes on and Russia doesn’t invade. People are beginning to wake up and realize they’re being lied to at all levels and Kerry is pathetic and unable to satisfy either the hawks nor back off his ludicrous threats against Russia.
Re Kerry: I loved James Howard Kunstler’s comment – “Kerry – a hairstyle in search of a brain”
Here’s another hackish lead, from the Washington (com)Post long known among Russia watchers in the U.S. as ‘Pravda on the Potomac’:
“DONETSK, Ukraine — Before he became leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic — a renegade regime that has spread chaos and fear across eastern Ukraine — Denis Pushilin sold shares in a Russian pyramid scheme.”
“His comrade-in-arms, the hostage-taking “people’s mayor” of Slovyansk, operated a small soap factory.”
“Today the two men threaten to sink this region into anarchy with their violence-fueled quest for autonomy from the pro-Western government in Kiev.”
If they can’t arrest or overrun the Donbass republic, they can at least trash its leaders. To the uninformed this makes the Western MSM and the Kiev ally it has been ordered to make look good at all costs look strong. In reality they are very weak, if all they can sling is barrels of ink instead of bullets at their pro-Russia enemies.
OMG. That quote about Kerry is hysterical! But he’s only 70, that’s really not that old — maybe his wig’s too heavy and squeezing all his brain cells? Seriously, it could just be that playing Bad Cop to Obama’s Good Cop (?) is not a role he’s ever done before, but the change in the man is remarkable.
More importantly, you seem knowledgeable about Ukraine, so let me ask a couple of other questions while I’m at it. Saker’s map is good to ponder, but I’m wishing I knew a bit more about goings on in Mykolaiv and Kherson. Do you know anything about them? What are they like socio-demographically? How likely would they be to follow suit, should Kharkiv and maybe even Dnepropetrovsk start getting it together against Kiev? It would make it easier for Odessa, etc., I would think, but I’m also looking at the Dnieper as a natural boundary — would any oblast maybe be likely to split?
Nikolayev (Mikolayiv) is one of the most Russian cities in Ukraine. Of has suffered greatly under Ukrainian regime of westernization, especially once they started interfering with shipbuilding industry in the city.
The city itself is one of the largest shipbuilders in the world. So yeah, they want very little to do with Baderovczi.
Source: lived there, have family there.
Greetings from Singapore:
As usual Saker’s analysis and his sitrep is excellent.
My view here:
(1) The crisis with Russia, solely induced by the U.S., is part of a containment policy against China. “Containment” of Russia is actually, at the end, containment of China. China is going to be the strongest economy on this planet at the end of 2014 and no sane nation would choose U.S (a moral, economical and political bankrupt), unless it is suicidal.
(2) I do not see Germany choosing the loosing side. They know well that the Eurasia concept is the only sustainable alternative. After some more ‘noise’ (for the sake of making the U.S. happy), I expect Germany to jump in and assist Russia in federalizing Ukraine and keep Ukraine neutral.
Crazy Ivan says…
I fully agree with those who claim the time slowly stop to play for Russia and slowly start to play to the junta.
What really is going on is totally hid from our eyes. We look like the (in)famous CIA agents glued to the monitors’ screens in Langley 15 years ago and taking intel from Internet only.
@ tom garret set the issue straight – I’d like to know what’s going on in other parts of Eastern Ukraine too.
When Crimea was at stake (with all foreseeable negative consequences to Russia) events were rolling like a snowball. Now all have been stopped as if everyone waited where to point his ear or what step will do the other side.
Only prospective Russian intervention keeps the Kiev thugs at bay reaching out for full scale attack.
But if Mariupol can be an example – every side have been learning quickly – Kiev how to regain slowly and in small chunks what they lost yesterday, US how to keep pressure giving nothing from her side (has anything agreed upon been implemented yet?) and Russians how to gain using US tactics in a foreign country/territory choosing local population for her cause.
But the Russian strategy is not winning in my view. I’ll get back to the Mariupol example. 60+ people arrested then sentenced for 4 years in prison (for example) will not give Russia pretext in the eyes of the world for “helping fist” against “Black Sector”. And pro-Russian activist will end up having destroyed their lives only and the lives of their families.
For those who think that Ukrainian “civilian” forces like Police and Security Services (be it SS, GSP, SBU or other political police) can be part of a “nation” I can only say they should NEVER be trusted as they NEVER change sides – that’s their jobs to stay for and support the state authorities. So was in Poland during Solidarity days and before the times and after. And it’s so today.
The Western MSM are not discrediting themselves with their lies, distortions and service to the Empire of Eternal exceptionalism, now. They have no credit left, nor have had any for decades, to ‘discredit’. It is a crude, vicious and morally filthy propaganda system, dedicated to furthering the economic, geo-political and class interests of its owners. The moral calibre of the presstitutes left after decades of culling along ideological lines, by the likes of Murdoch, can be understood by looking at scandals like the phone-hacking obscenity in the UK, one of countless similar examples. They are acting in precisely the manner that they have acted in regard to Saddam’s WMD, Libya, Syria, Israel, Lebanon, Iran, China, Russia etc for decades.
Greetings from Singapore:
Further to my previous: When I mention Eurasia, I see a wider context. It should be Germany – Russia – China as main partners. Add to it as complements: Iran and Brazil eventually. This are the countries which could build up a sustainable world system, in opposition to the predatory model from the U.S.
“Kerry is turning into a full-time buffoon who makes Hillary look rational”
Saker, you are being generous
Hillary could never look rational, no matter how big a buffoon Kerry is
btw: don’t know if anyone mentioned this but Canada is taking the lead for the OSCE military observers
Wikispooks, Milne’s sensible contribution was met by the sub-fascist trolls with indignation and lies. The totalitarian instincts of the Western elite have been projected on even the least significant of their camp-followers. They simply cannot deal with a different opinion, and cannot or will not stoop to mounting an argument, being mostly intellectually insufficient to the task. There is nothing these creatures enjoy more than hating others, either the poor and downtrodden, those of other races or religions, or those ‘enemies’ that their Thought Controllers in the hatemongering Western MSM tell them to fear and despise.
Angelika, the Die Zeit article lasting three hours before being disappeared down the Memory Hole indicates that someone will get a rap over the knuckles, and probably have their career curtailed. Don’t you just love the ‘Free Press’ and really existing ‘Western Moral Values'(TM)? The reaction was almost as swift as Kerry-Cohen’s immediate full strength grovel after he said that Israel ‘risked’ becoming an apartheid state, itself a sick joke as Israel has been an apartheid state since 1947. In fact, if looked at dispassionately, Judaism created, global, eternal, apartheid between the Jews and the goyim around 1500 BCE.
Crazy Ivan says…
Something to thought over for you, The Saker. About Poland’s stand in this “Clash of Titans”.
“We installed hating Polish Bandera at the behest of Berlin”
Mr Korwin-Mikke has never lied to appease voters or gain publicity. He’s always known more than other regime politicians.
BTW Germany seems to provide triple play policy – for themselves (always, for IV Reich), for the US, to be treated as truthful ally and for Russia to help her to shake off the NATO (read US) yoke.
I would never ever trusted Siemens after Stuxnet revelations. Not to mention it was German secret services which worked on Ukraine together with USA, it was German military which helped Croats to remove Serbs from their land (in whole picture it was Germany which destroyed Yugoslavia after Pentagonale and Xexagonale were established comprising of two strongest anti-German countries in the world – Poland and Yugoslavia. Poland was pacified by German agents like present Polish Prime Minister who will not make a fart without a phone from Mrs. Merkel), and the biggest group of OSCD “agents” arrested by pro-Russian forces in Ukraine came from Germany (interesting, isn’t it?)
I read nearly all commentaries and the German thread is well described. It only confirms my suppositions about German’s goal in future world, and I’m not alone in my premonitions.
Saker? we have been talking about the Polish deadheading in 2010
I rehashed a big post on it, with updates and then karin mentioned James Corbett had done a recent piece on it. checked it out
Then james left the link back to J Corbett’s original piece in 2012
I see two of the biggest beneficiaries, right now in Poland, of the taking out of the Polish gov back in 2010
Tusk and Sikorski who I understand is married to Annie Applebaum- uber propagandist and ultra zionist
I used a gardening analogy at that time “deadheading” I am certain you know what that is?
I relinked all the Polish stuff in this post at the bottom
In 2010 the NATO media was busily blaming Russia for the crash, but, I couldn’t see how they would benefit at the time
Recently Poland’s defence minister has been going back and forth with the US
Anyway, wondered if you recalled that whole incident?
And if you did what you thought about it and can you see how it connects up to Ukraine today?
I know it is a lot,so when you have time- thanks
Q1: Mikhail Dobkin, a top Party of Regions figure and close friend of the Major
R1: Make that MAYOR
Q2: a Spetsnaz unit
R2: I honestly thought I was a very tough guy…, until I met a couple of them in Canada. I don’t like eating humble pie, but I ate the whole ff-ing thing, including the pan. No way to win hand-to-hand combat against these guys. I can take a beating, but nothing compared to these guys. Scary.
Of course, they die, like all of us…
Dear The Saker,
Ukraine has expelled the naval attaché of Russia’s embassy in Kiev, declaring him persona non grata, Interfax news agency reported
Nora, if the Russian Duma is cracking down on the use by the Real Evil Empire of Eternal Exceptionalism, Inc., of the internet as a means of propaganda and subversion of target states, then I say, ‘About time’. And the traitors, the fully owned stooges of the REEEE, need to be loaded on planes, given a parachute, and dropped off over Kiev, so that they can join their friends in Banderastan.
Ukraine is yet another defeat for the US. But there are still those too shocked and awed to believe this is possible.
Keeping an eye on the long-term picture, I’d say that instead of the US isolating Russia, it’s going to work the other way round. It’s the US–which one should always remember is geographically a big island–that will find itself isolated as it pushes Russia, China, and Iran closer together and forces Europe to chose between its economic interests and its servility to American dictates.
The problem the US faces as an empire is that it is increasingly an empire run by culturally illiterate techno-nerds who have no comprehension of the history and culture of other people. The superiority of American arms is to a large extent negated by the blind arrogance of the establishment they serve. Anyone who doubts this should read Anand Gopal’s account in Asia Times of how in Afghanistan, the US snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/SOU-02-300414.html
In retrospect, winning the Cold War has turned out to be a curse for the American ruling class because it encouraged the fantasy that American power has no limits (the nonsense about the end of history). I mean it really is telling that today the George H. W. Bush administration (Bush the elder) looks rational compared to all subsequent administrations, all of which give the impression of being run by amateurs. It was Bush the elder who in 1991 presciently cautioned Ukraine against “suicidal nationalism.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_Kiev_speech
The nascent neocons jumped on his throat. They won out and ever since they’ve been been leading the country form one disaster to another.
Здравствуйте, Ваш блог очень интересный, особенно меня впечатляет Ваше личное мнение по поводу политики Владимира Владимировича Путина, которого я очень уважаю как политика, как здравомыслящего человека, как нашу единственную надежду на то, что на Украине восторжествует справедливость и мир! В связи с этим хочу Вам рассказать одну реальную историю, что случилась на Украине, в связи со сложившимися обстоятельствами. Многие люди в России и в Украине общаются по поводу всего происходящего на Украине. Так вот один день, мне написал один парень, который в данный момент живет в Германии, он решил забрать своего дедушку, который находится на Украине, он отправил приглашение в посольство Германии в Киеве, дедушка туда приехал, чтобы оформить соответствующий документ, так как особых документов не нужно было. Был один формуляр, в котором было несколько вопросов, первый – “В каком году Вы в последний раз посещали Германию”, дедушка написал – в 1945 году, далее второй вопрос “Какой вид транспорта Вы использовали для прибылтия в Германию”, дедушка и на этот вопрос написал честно – на танке. После чего, ему было отказано в поездке в Германию! После того, как консул посольства Германии сказал дедушке о том, что ему отказано в визе, дедушка решил пошутить и сказал ,” А что я бы и сейчас повторил это”, на что ему указали на выход. Самое смешное, что дедушка то написал правду, ведь он дошел до Берлина именно в 1945 году и на танке. Но, к сожалению, в посольстве, были просто в шоке и естественно, просто потому что боятся, а чего, Бог его знает, но мы все понимаем. Вот такая забавная жизненная история! Спасибо Вам за Ваш блог!!!
“Then, I can only express my amused amazement at Kerry’s latest expression of hot air. What does “we have to make it absolutely clear to the Kremlin that NATO territory is inviolable we will defend every single inch of it” supposed to mean?!”
IMHO Kerry chooses his words carefully. Here he transports two messages. The first is a psychological one, posing as the strong man (the US) to the rest of the world (yes, hot air, but with the effect he wanted). The second message to those concerned is simply: We won’t go to war with Russia over Ukraine.
Its never good to underestimate the other side and i don’t think Kerry acts irrational. In fact, he may be the best man they have to put in his position.
P.S. The captchas are unreadable. I need to reload them dozends of times and still fail.
from amerika: many here support east ukraine and russia. let’s work together for freedom, revolution and peace!
On second thought, I think you’re right about Kerry. His face and behavior are just too far off. What’s really scary is, do you think anyone in the Oval Office or State Department has either noticed, or cares enough to find a replacement? And if so, (eeek!) whom? But yes, I think there’s something really wrong with the guy, way above and beyond just being an empty (but well-tailored) suit.
Thanks for the detailed sitrep. Very useful.
With Kiev supposedly giving up trying to retake lost ground (though I don’t believe it), one might see a lot more people joining in the federalisation cause. It could reach a critical mass where the movement snowballs, movements like this often do that. At that point, it could even effect people in central and west Ukraine who were earlier pro-maidan. My guess is that if the banderivtsy was neutralised, then the rest of Ukrainians could probably work out a reasonable compromise state. This is why I think the zionists/fascists of the NWO are putting their effort behind these nazis. The nazi will keep the country in conflict and this is what the western plutocracy wants now. probably wanted all along.
China, Russia to hold joint naval drill in politically sensitive East China Sea
Found it interesting:
Oligarchical topography of Ukraine. Andrei Fursov