By Blake Archer Williams for The Saker Blog
Greetings from Tehran, the “Capital of the free world” (E. Michael Jones).
A few days ago, Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst, had a brief post on Colonel Patrick Lang’s weblog, Sic Semper Tyrannis. Here’s the link:
He gave four possible options, and invited the commenters to add others of their own. The whole post and the comments which followed were absolutely pathetic in terms of the depth of analysis, including this mind-blowing comment by the Turcopolier himself: “The strait would not stay closed long, but there would be considerable economic damage while it is.”
I mean, are these people nuts?? Let me put it this way:
The [sand] niggers have burned down the plantation, OK? The plantation is no more. It is an ex-Plantation.
And the niggers have built their own supersonic Noor ground to sea and ground to ground missiles; we have built ballistic missiles with ranges of up to 2000 km and winged cruise missiles with a range of 2500, all with high precision (low CEP) impacts. Our latest generation of drones are on the leading edge of the technology. Trust me. (We are always in the 90+ percentile if not actually winning the medals in the Olympics for mathematics, physics, chemistry, electrical engineering, information technology, etc.) If the first ballistic missile or Noor cruise missile fails to take out the control tower of the Abraham Lincoln (and fail they won’t), we will use the multiple warhead option on the ballistic missiles, and “carpet bomb” the runway so that it will be useless. Just a rubber duck sitting in our pond, with its 5,000+ sailors constantly under fire until they raise the white flag of surrender and wait to be taken hostage.
The niggers have exercised strategic patience for a very long time (four decades). It would be nice to have a few more years just to be sure, but we are ready. We are thirsting for relief from the false new worldly order (novus ordo seclorum falsus) as declared in the Second Ecumenical Council of the Vatican in 1965 and in the Centesimus Annus encyclical issued by Pope John Paul II in 1991, which emphasized the surrender to usury (“capitalism, properly understood”).
Let us game this. Trumpf is talking about the use of nuclear weapons. He is itching for it. But only after he gets re-elected. What are Iran’s options? The Iranian “Samson Option” is simple: Fire a few Noor missiles at the deep-water supertanker docking ports of Ra’s Tanura (Saudi Arabia), Fujairah, and Dubai’s Jebel Ali port, “the largest man-made deep-water harbor in the world that is also the U.S. Navy’s busiest port of call outside of America.” It would take at least six months to rebuild the ruins, IF the sand-niggers allow the reconstruction to take place, during which time no supertankers will be able to dock anywhere in the Persian Gulf to fill their huge bellies with that yummy crude. What that would do to the world economy, you would have to ask my friend, Pepe Escobar, who knows a thing or two about derivatives and over-extension more generally. What is Trumpf going to do now that he has crashed Wall Street worse than 1929? I.e. the final crash which Pax Americana (as wagged by the Pax Judaica tail, of course) will not recover from. I.e. finally putting the Crash of September 2008 precipitated by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy out of its misery. Take a dive from the top of Trumpf Tower, that’s what. The American equivalent of Seppuku, not having the “guts” for the real thing, or not being able to “make the cut” – you decide.
The pathetic talk on Sic Semper Tyrannis is that we would be able to hit some of the Saudi oil and tank infrastructure. For example, one of the commenters (Jack) says, “The real question is how badly could they damage Gulf oil production infrastructure and how long would it take to rebuild?” Why would we want to destroy what is [ultimately] ours?? Why not provide machine guns to the 2 million oppressed Shi’a in Qatif; you know, the niggers who run the Ra’s Tanura refinery and port… Roll in a couple of armored Divisions, given them the Uzi and Kalashnikov high copies (and maybe some magic Houthi sandals with which to wage war), and leave the tanks there for them to defend Qatīf with. (We would have their backs on the Persian Gulf side). Why not take as many of the 10,000 soldiers at the un-defendable Bagram base in Afghanistan hostage, as well as the 5,000 or so sailors of the Fifth Fleet stationed in Bahrain? (With the fall of Qatīf, Bahrain would also fall back into Iranian suzerainty.) Why not bomb the control centers and runways of all the airfields the US would want to use to take out our radar installations out in the first few weeks (so that they can then send in their Depends™ -wearing pilots to take out our nuclear sites). And for what? Like that is going to achieve anything other than bring about further national unity and cohesion. But like I said, there would be no “few weeks” once Iran implements the first three days of its gameplan.
Why not take out Dimona and the Haifa Port Chemical Terminal and the Ben-Gurion Airport control tower? Why not make Israel a no-fly zone, so that the dual passport holders can make their way back to Europe and New York, which is where they came from in the first place? Not for the military aircraft, but for commercial aircraft: Anything taking off or landing in Ben-Gurion will be shot down by domestic analogues of the S-300’s; you know, the same good fireworks brought to you by the same folk who destroyed the so-called “stealth” Triton drone at four o’clock in the morning. (Help me out here… we’re just gaming this, ok?). And as for the Persian Gulf (not “the Gulf”, stupid); someone rightly characterized it as the Hotel California for whatever martial vessel which dares enter it. And for those who are not old enough to know: “You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave!”
So these are the options as we see them. First the Emirates (half of whose keffiyeh wearing “sheiks” are ethnically Iranian and Persian speaking anyway), and Qatīf (and of course Jīzān and the southern parts of Asīr back to the Yemenese, where they have always belonged historically). And then on to the Hejaz and the haramayn: Mecca and Medina, driving the Wahhabeast heretics back under the rocks of Najrān, from under which they crawled with the aid of British arms and financing back in the middle of the 18th century. Yes, Russia isn’t too happy about the possibility of Iranian control over such a large geopolitical jugular vein, but hey, it’s geographical determinism; they’ll get used to it. They will be getting Germany and France and the European sub-continent’s integration into the Eurasia “world continent” (McKinder?). And better the oil in the hands of the rational Shi’a than the crazy-as-a-loon American cowboys. And the ‘Sea Power’ pirates, Perfidious Albion and Uncle $cam will have to scamper back home with their rat-tails between their rat legs, followed by all their takfiri scum “rats” (Ghaddāfī), who will be deported to London and New York, God grant!
The phase of strategic patience is over. We are now in the phase of Eye for an Eye Escalation. But do not think that this phase will have the longevity of the last one. It is on a high-sprung spring-loaded trigger, after which all bets are off. This is the way we see it. How do you see it, Pray tell? Do you see it as we see it? As Colonel Lang sees it? Or somewhere in between? I eagerly await to see your perspectives in your comments.
Blake Archer Williams has asked me to add this article under his analysis because it illustrates the points he just made. He also added the following important caveat to this translation:
The translation of the subtitles is not the best. Particularly, General Soleimani’s very first sentence, which is very important, has not been rendered well. Where it says, “There is no need for armed forces, I am your foe, the Qods Force is your foe.” It should read as follows:“There is no need for the [regular] Iranian Armed Forces [to get involved in order to resolve the conflict between us]; I am [a sufficient] adversary for you; the Qods Force is [sufficient enough] of a foe for [the likes of] you.”
Also, at 1:37, where the good general says, “You start this war, but the end of it, we will decide.” Should read:
“You [may] start this war, but [know that in such an event], it is we who will draw (tarsīm) [the political map] of how it will end [literally: “of its end”)].
And as you know, my friend, General Soleimani is not given to hyperbole and lies, as is the unfortunate habit of US politicians and now generals too.
Here is the article in question:
Major General Soleimani sharply reacts to Trump’s recent military threat
Iran’s Major General Qassem Soleimani has sharply reacted to the recent “cabaret owner-style” military threat by US President Donald Trump against the Islamic Republic, saying he takes the position to respond “as a soldier” since it is beneath the dignity of Iran’s president to do so.
Addressing Trump, the commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said, “You threaten us with an action that is ‘unprecedented’ in the world. This is cabaret-style rhetoric. Only a cabaret owner talks to the world this way.”
He was reacting to Trump’s all-caps tweet addressed to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, in which he threatened the Islamic Republic with actions “the likes of which few throughout history have ever suffered before.”
The tweet came after President Rouhani warned the US against its hostile approach against Iran, saying Washington should know that peace with Iran will be the mother of all peace while war with the country will be the mother of all wars.
“It is beneath the dignity of our president to respond to you. I, as a soldier, respond to you,” Soleimani further said.
You already did all you could!
The senior general further reminded the United States of its failures in its invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.
“What was it that you could do over the past 20 years but you didn’t? You came to Afghanistan with scores of tanks and personnel carriers and hundreds of advanced helicopters and committed crimes there. What the hell could you do between 2001 and 2018 with 110,000 troops? You are today begging Taliban for talks,” Major General Soleimani said.
The Iranian commander added, “Afghanistan was a poor country, what the hell could you do in this country that you are currently threatening us?”
“You arrogantly attacked Iraq with 160,000 troops and multiple times [military equipment] compared to what you used in Afghanistan, but what happened? Ask your then commander who was the person that he sent to me and asked ‘Is is possible for you to give us time [and] use your influence so that our soldiers would not be attacked by the Iraqi fighters in these few months until we exit this country?’ Have you forgotten that you provided adult diapers for your soldiers in tanks? Despite that you are currently threatening the great country of Iran? With what background do you threaten [us]?”
“We are near you, where you can’t even imagine. We are the nation of martyrdom, we are the nation of Imam Hossein, you better ask. Come; we are ready. We are the man of this arena. You know that this war would mean annihilation of all your means. You may begin the war, but it is us who will end it,” he said.
In Yemen, Soleimani said, the US-backed coalition of Saudi Arabia and its allies has been incapable of making any gains against the country’s Houthi Ansarullah movement, which is both running state affairs and defending the nation against the Riyadh-led aggression.
“A mere organization is standing against you in Yemen, but it has emerged victorious in the face of the most advanced of your military equipment. What have you achieved over the past four years? You stripped the Red Sea – which used to be a safe sea – of security. You brought under fire Saudi Arabia and [its capital] Riyadh – which had not seen a single rocket fired at them for 100 years.”
The senior general further warned Trump against insulting the Iranian nation and president.
“Trump! You must not threaten our nation and must not insult our president… You must know what you are talking about; ask your predecessors and take advantage of their experiences,” General Soleimani emphasized.
The senior military official also censured the US for supporting the most hated anti-Iran terror group, called the Mujahedin Khalq Organization (MKO), saying Washington failed to achieve anything by doing so.
The commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force said, “the US had some grandeur in the past [and] when its fleet moved out, a nation fell apart. Have you now become attached to the Monafeqeen, who have been thrown in the trash bin of Iran’s history? You have become attached to a vagrant woman, and show her in all [your news] networks; is your hope pinned on this? Is this all your power? You are aware of our power in the region and capability for [launching] asymmetrical war?”
“The phase of strategic patience is over. We are now in the phase of Eye for an Eye Escalation.”
Don’t think Putin is too happy about that, but he will have to support his ally who is crucial in preventing the soft Russian underbelly region from going ISIS. Should Iran go under it will become ISIS, along with Afghanistan and Pakistan, and then probably Turkey as well.
Russia can easily cause a stalemate in Iran for the West, just like they have done in Ukraine and Syria. Turkey is currently neutral-ish. But since Iran has so much combat potential a stalemate would be a waste of resources, better to use that potential a little bit.
My respect for the Shia holds a very high place in my heart. I am an Orthodox Christian and will live and die as an Orthodox Christian. With that said I have always respected people who live and die by their beliefs without apologies. That crosses all tribal, political and religious boundaries. The example of their Prophet Mohammed and their Imams Ali, Hassan and Hussein have made the Shia people the fearless warriors that they are. For me it is the example of Jesus Christ and all of the Saints (especially the Martyrs) that inspire me to take a stand for what is rigjt and pure and just even unto death.
I have good news for you Je. When the time comes, we shia will be with you orthodox christians, as it is dictated by Islam. We are your allies.
True, hopefully we will stand side by side in Constantinople when the one eyed cretin is destroyed, or our children will. If God is willing perhaps we will meet in Karbala b4 that to.
One of my biggest dreams is to walk to Karbala.
Your comment says it all, we stand together or we fall.
My sentiments exactly JE and beautifully written. As a Christian, I also stand with Holy Iran, albeit from afar.
Well, Suleimani has to be respected, as it seems that his reactions are measured and controlled, as they should be. The point is, Iran is under attack and eventually it will have to win.
On the other hand, the other day I was listening a comment regarding the “British ship”. The ship is waving British flag, but it’s owned by some Swedish company, which is said to own fair number of ships as well as few oil rigs in North Sea. Accordingly to the commenter, the business of “I catch your ship you catch mine” has more to do with BP playing dirty against the Swedish company than between GB and Iran. I do not know, but it seems interesting.
As for the Yemen war, there is no doubt that whoever is behind this conflict has found a hard bone to chew on.
Thanks Blake for more sobering, but realistic analysis on The Saker. I believe we are close to the time when ‘all bets are off’ unless either Iran or the Anglo Zionist Empire backs off. Thats the only way to avert catastrophe not just for the region, but to avert a meltdown of the global economy.
Can you see such delusional punch drunk with power: Bolton, Pompeo, Abrams, Netanyahu, the MIC, Bojo, Trumpeter, backing down? No, I can’t. They are blinded by their lust to destroy Iran. Can you see the Iranians, people like Ayatollah Khamenei and General Soleimani backing down? Absolutely not. Sooner or later the gates of hell will be opened by the insanity of those who seek full spectrum dominance.
The death throes of a dying Empire is a very dangerous time. Your comments on an economic crash equivalent to 1929 is pretty much correct in my opinion. I think we’re in for a very perilous journey Blake. I appreciate your words.
The US despite its bluff and bluster, is day by day, becoming more and more isolated and increasingly irrelevant.
First Germany, and now Japan, have stated unequivocally that they will not take part in any US led naval patrol in the Gulf of Hornouz.
And Pompeo was just told to his face by his Indian counterpart that the US offer to mediate between Pakistan and India over Kashmir is not needed or welcomed.
They’ve gutted the State Department of professional career diplomats and replaced them with Israel Firsters and bouncers like Pompeo.
Pompeo who is supposed to be America’s top diplomat, spends most of his time issuing threats and imposing sanctions and fabricating lies.
Diplomats dont do sanctions and threats!
And I would not be surprised to find out that it was Pompeo the bouncer who came up with the stupid idea to impose sanctions on the Iranian Foreign Minister, because he is completely outclassed by Mohammad Javad Zarif and in comparasion looks inept and out of his depth.
And their ignorance of basic matters is appaling.
Do they not know that Iranians are Persians with a storied history and civillization that pre-date America by a 1000 years?
Whatever happens in its Zionist-manufactured confrontation with Iran, this much can be predicted:
The US will emerge from this confrontation with its prestige and credibility as a global power considerably diminished.
The Qods Force Commander will have the last say, not Trump.
Strait of Hormuz
Sorry, Iranian (Persian) history goes back at least 5000years. Anglo-American history goes back barely 300years.
My bad, I meant to say predated by “at least” 1000 years”
The blunt-speaking warms my heart. Good job.
What can I add? Well, I would point out that geopolitical and geo-economic matters are one and the same, and that all Empires are primarily, fundamentally, economic concerns (that’s Orwell’s observation). They are “machines” that force individuals and entice them and control them at least (in the case of “leaders” (ie Trumpie the Clown) as much as the puerile character may play a part – emotions there are very dangerous.
Due to internal Imperial conditions, faults, probably the product of economic zuswang, Imperial collapse is proximate. Under such conditions it behaves, is forced to behave, chaotically and irrationally – delusionally.
Meantime the war is already lost in another sense – OBOR and technical integration of two mature empires – the Asiatic and the Slavic – peopled by very smart nations – this, as the author references, is the MacKinder nightmare for the Sea Peoples….the pirates.
History and conditions suggest that the Imperial Collapse will find a triggering event…and that Persian force will demonstrate the denouement. Yes, the Strait will probably see this tragedy.
Faced with a somewhat similar situation Xerxes saved Persia when he retreated after Salamis…
But Trumpie the Clown? C’mon…and anyway it is a command performance – the Emperor demands a demonstration…
Actually one might also refer to the last time this piracy failed…”collapse of 1177 BCE” and all that…
Sick tempered tyranisourass favors dropping bombs from 70,000′ then running away, and he made it to Col. Western military leaders, snooty little boys really, sit in a/c shacks in the rear echelon, fearing to go where real men will. Russian, Syrian and Iraqi officers lead on the front, with the real men. He talks a good game, but reading the comments, it’s more of a pussy love fest. “she won the debate, and she’s good looking” “lets see more of her” that’s the level of disscussion. Indictive of the rot that permiates all US socitey, and don’t get me wrong I appreciate a good looking woman, I’m lying, I love all women, but unless you are talking to ‘the woman’ herself, keep that shit in your head.
Link now moved to: https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/iran/
War gaming exercise?
Read Isaiah 21:2 and the entire chapter (plus chapter 22) for context. The Divine strategy disclosed by the prophet is for Elam and the Medes ( Persians = Iranians) to besiege. Besiege what? What can be besieged? The strait of Hormuz. What next? Make “bright” the arrows (Jer 51:11). What about the king of Babylon?
Dan 11:45 And he shall plant the tabernacles of his palace between the seas in the glorious holy mountain; yet he shall come to his end, and none shall help him.
None shall help him!
To further defy the AZ Empire, I would love to see Iran, Pakistan, India, & China start construction on the proposed IPI pipeline, this time ending in China’s Xinjiang province. Such a project would be a huge down-payment in the “trust/karma” bank, as well as create thousands of desperately needed well-paying jobs. Other SCO members can contribute S-400s and troops to patrol along the pipeline’s route.
While some of this is correct – a lot, actually – some of it is ridiculous.
Take Bagram’s 10,000 US soldiers? By whom? Those Iranian divisions who are being bombed into dust by B-52’s dropping 70,000 pounds of precision-targeted ordnance by *each plane*? Seriously?
“Anything taking off or landing in Ben-Gurion will be shot down by domestic analogues of the S-300’s”
Uh, since when do Iranian air defense systems have the range to cover Ben-Gurion? Is this guy thinking that Russia will allow Syria to shoot down civilian aircraft taking off from Ben-Gurion? Seriously? No way, Jose.
“Roll in a couple of armored Divisions, given them the Uzi and Kalashnikov high copies (and maybe some magic Houthi sandals with which to wage war), and leave the tanks there for them to defend Qatīf with.”
Another utterly laughable concept with zero chance of being even remotely considered by Iranian military strategists (aside from providing weapons to Shia all over the Middle East, which likely *is* being done, let alone considered.)
This guy has very little military competence.
As for Colonel Lang’s nonsense about keeping the Straits open, well, he’s a military man. However knowledgeable he is about the Middle East and military intelligence – and he’s no supporter of a war with Iran, note – he’s got the same lack of imagination most military men do. He also probably isn’t familiar with how old the US Navy’s mine-clearing ships are – hint: they’re made of *wood* and should have retired from service decades ago – nor that the last time the US Navy did a mine-clearing exercise in the Gulf, they failed to find more than half of the dummy mines used in the exercise.
If you think Lang is an idiot for that concept, consider that he seriously believes that there is no such thing as the military-industrial complex having an influence on US foreign policy. Trust me, the man is clueless on that topic.
These sorts of articles just discredit The Saker site. Please reconsider people offering absurd “conflict analysis” who have zero knowledge of things like logistics, armaments capabilities, and available military assets.
While the B52s and F22s may be able to take off from Qatar for their first sortie, they may not land in Qatar after the runways are destroyed. A lot of aircraft may be lost. That might be the real reason why Trump cancelled the attack at the last minute.
@RS Hack: “…Iranian divisions … being bombed into dust by B-52’s dropping 70,000 pounds of precision-targeted ordnance by *each plane”.
Which somehow reminds me of The Pyjama Game: “Oh that Mr.Sorokin, he’s so strong!”
I don’t think B52s will be used in a first strike anyway because the Iranians would probably shoot them down quite easx
but yes some remarks in the article are rediculous maybe he was a liitle emotional when he wrote it…
Removed – no attacking other commenters. Mod.
The B52 is not a ground attack aircraft and which use would ever be contemplated for attacking ground troops…that tells us you have no creds to be criticizing the author’s scenario…
The B52 is a strategic bomber and cruise missile carrier…it might be employed to launch cruise missiles at Iranian targets from standoff range…but cruise missiles are not used against infantry or motorized armor…for the simple reason that they cannot hit mobile targets…they can only hit stationary targets that are pre-programmed into its flight plan…
The US lost 31 B52s in Vietnam…Iran has formidable air defenses, including four S300 brigades, with over 30 mobile launchers…plus its own indigenous systems…Iran graduates as many engineers as the US…
In order for any ground attack aircraft to penetrate Iranian airspace…that air defense system must first be neutralized…which would require a massive SEAD operation [suppression of enemy air defenses]…
The US would be unable to achieve that…given that it wasn’t able to do it against much smaller and less capable Serbia in 1999… despite throwing more than 1,000 aircraft at the job…
—Kosovo and the Continuing SEAD Challenge; USAF Aerospace Pwer Journal, 2002
The B52s were never even deployed since the SEAD mission was never accomplished…much of the bombing was useless in terms of damaging Serb ground forces, which emerged practically unscathed…due to the tough air defense resistance…even though the equipment was Vietnam era Soviet hardware…
To think that B52s are going to waltz into Iranian airspace and drop bombs on Iranian ground forces is just guffaw-level amateur hour…
More likely the US would be able to inflict even less damage on Iranian forces than they did on the Serbs…due to the former’s vastly greater air defense capabilities…
As for the author’s point about Iran’s anti-shipping capability…it is correct…Iran possesses the deadly Mach 3 capable Russian sea skimmer P270 Moskit [Nato reporting name SN22 ‘Sunburn’]…which has no analogs in the west…
And it possesses them…and Iranian subsonic Noor missiles [based on the Chinese C802…similar to the French Exocet] in sufficient numbers to make their fireworks show in the gulf something akin to shooting fish in a barrel…
Wow- somebody who knows what the heck they’re talking about.
Hopefully Hack reads it.
To all commenters:
Richard Steven Hack is a zionist Jewish propagandists where I have warned people at this site with evidence.
He is promoting war against Iran by his own style, meaning brings a lot of garbage to prove that war is inevitable and Iran is too weak to do anything to fool the public for the last 20 years, at least that I know about.
line removed – attack on other commentors, mod
I’m sure Josh Marshall over at Talking Points Memo would be surprised to hear that I am a “zionist Jewish propagandist” – given that he banned me from posting comments there, accusing me of being an “Israel eliminationist” by which I think he meant that I posited the possibility that some smart Arabs might decide to steal some Israeli nukes and take out Tel Aviv.
Anyone can do a Google search on my name and see the posts I’ve made against Israel and Zionism over a number of Web sites, including Antiwar.com, goingtotehran.com, and elsewhere.
I also note the number of “lines removed by mod” as a result of the personal attacks on my.
If this is the level of commentary I can expect over here – and I note how many times The Saker himself has been disgusted at the level of anti-Putin remarks here – I guess I won’t waste any more time casting pearls before swine. Apparently most people like to live at the level of their fantasies and have no interest in hearing reality-based comments.
Don’t make the mistake to draw a distorted conclusion from a few loud messages here.
Dissent is essential here, especially with those Gung-ho style comments or articles.
“The B52 is not a ground attack aircraft and which use would ever be contemplated for attacking ground troops…that tells us you have no creds to be criticizing the author’s scenario”
That is precisely how they were used in Vietnam. They were used to devastate very large areas of Viet Cong force concentrations, digging twenty-foot deep craters, with the explosions causing complete trauma in all enemy forces within range, and destroying underground bunkers over a wide area. They were very effective in that limited application, although of course that had no ultimate effect on the war effort.
As for Serbia, Iran is not Serbia. Serbia is covered in forests and was able to disperse its military assets very effectively, as you correctly note. I am not talking about dispersing military assets which can not be used in any event against the foreign military attacking it. I am talking about the ridiculous notion of moving an armored division while under bombardment from high-altitude strategic bombers. That is the scenario the author has posited – and it is indeed ridiculous.
As for whether Iran could shoot down B-52s, I made no comment regarding that and it is not relevant to the point I was making.
By the way, as far the alleged Sunburn antiship missiles which Iran supposedly possesses, as far as I am aware, no one has ever seen them. All the reports AFAIK have been rumors. AFAIK none have ever been displayed in any Iranian military parade or elsewhere. Certainly it is possible that Iran has them – or even a domestically-produced equivalent. But that has not been demonstrated.
I repeat, the author’s notions of military logistics, weapons capabilities, and deployment scenarios is just the sort of fantasy that appeals to a lot of people on this site. The Saker undoubtedly knows better as his previous articles on these subjects indicate.
That’s completely incorrect…
The ONLY instance of the B52 being used to target enemy troop concentrations was the 1965 Battle of la Drang…
This was an unorthodox case of using heavy bombers in a close air support role…and it didn’t work very well…with the outcome being basically a draw, with about equal casualties of about 1,000 each…also of note is that at this early date the North didn’t yet have deployments of Russian SAMs or MiGs with which to counter the air assault…
The rest of the Vietnam war saw B52s operating in their strategic bomber role…targeting airfields, bridges and other infrastructure…
Example 1…Operation Rolling Thunder [1965 to ’68]…considered a ‘strategic US failure’…with 922 US aircraft lost…
Example 2…Operation Linebacker…another 134 US aircraft lost…result, indecisive…
Example 3…Operation Linebacker 2…with 16 B52s shot down…[all aircraft loss figures from US side…North claims much higher totals]…
So no, ground attack is certainly NOT how B52s were used in Vietnam…
With the advent of modern SAMs…no USAF planner would contemplate sending B52s into such A2/AD zones…that’s a fact, Jack…
So your original statement about B52s pounding Iranian ground troops remains as ridiculous as ever…
Also your comment about Iranian topography…maybe you should read up on that too…
“Take Bagram’s 10,000 US soldiers? By whom? Those Iranian divisions who are being bombed into dust by B-52’s dropping 70,000 pounds of precision-targeted ordnance by *each plane*? Seriously?”
Removed – this is getting personal. Mod.
“Hack”… pretty well sums it up.
Keep your eye on Iran, the actual battle that wins this war is being waged thousands of miles away, advancing at about 20 miles per day and heading in two different directions.
If Iran is the area you would like to focus, the author makes no mention of the tens of thousands of missiles that would knock out Ben-Gurion in a matter of minutes, coming from Lebanon. Probably best as the author points out, to first let quite a few plane loads of New York and London Jews head back to their second homes before leveling the airport. Author makes no mention of Hoot torpedoes. Something like this happens, I find it hard to believe you just leave those unwrapped sitting under the tree. I don’t believe he talked about those carrier killer cruise missiles either.
Major General Qassem Soleimani makes mention, but doesn’t go into specifics of the close by sleeper cells and what chaos they might cause. Take out a few key .1 percenters from say a mile or so out, hell that’s not even much of a shot. They certainly seem to be easy to follow if one was so inclined. The Iranian brain, I can’t figure it out, which ones are on our side, which ones are on Iran’s side, they’d be impossible to round up. Dining with a Koch brother one evening, next thing you know they’re picking up a gun from behind the toilet and you know the drill. How many of these guys would you even need to take out? 4 or 5? Hell I bet you could bag 15 or 20 of them in one day. But you’re right, the author doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
One should always remember, that the americans themselves have shown us how they fight and how they can be defeated. Not only the Iranian military is not centralized, it will also use asymmetric tactics. We have all seen the images of the “highway of death” from the war against Saddam.
Years ago iranian military leaders decided to create autonomous military structures, where the armed forces in each province can during war act as a fully equipped army without help from the rest of the country. We have been amassing military equipment and have trained millions of people war the inevitable war with usa. We can produce our own military equipment and can easily replace them if needed. We have prepared for this war for the last 40 years, and we are no longer alone. We have Syria to help us. We have Hezbollah to help us. We have the Shia in Bahrain to help us. We have the Shia in East Arabia to help us. We have the Shia in Pakistan and Afghanistan to help us as they do in Syria today. Who knows maybe the Russians, the Chinese and the North Koreans will help us too, if for nothing else just for some payback regarding usa. Eventhough Putin favors to repeat, that according to him Russia and usa have the same geostrategic goals!
When I read the part of the article discussed here, I just laughed, because as you read the article it is obviously not meant seriously. Personally I wouldn´t care if they bombed us with B-52000 or a million ton bombs. My job will be to kill 1 american!
I can honestly tell you, that I have always learned more from the comments at forums like this than the articles themselves. Imagine a world where everybody agrees with everybody else! I rather enjoy reading comments disagreeing with me. Stay on Hack and lets all disagree some more.
“Take Bagram’s 10,000 US soldiers? By whom? Those Iranian divisions who are being bombed into dust by B-52’s dropping 70,000 pounds of precision-targeted ordnance by *each plane*? Seriously?”
I am reminded of an echo from the past…..
Where have I heard such misplaced confidence before?
Oh, yeah, from ol’ Dugout Doug himself:
Douglas MacArthur to President Truman, 14 October, 1950: “Now that we have bases for our air force in Korea, if the Chinese tried to get down to Pyongyang there would be the greatest slaughter”.
Five days later the Chinese dared to take on MacArthur’s over-reliance on air power.
And one month after that they did indeed “get down to Pyongyang” and, furthermore, went considerably further than that. All in the face of American air power and all without suffering anything even remotely resembling a “great slaughter”.
Iran can send an army numbering in the HUNDREDS of thousands. Centcom can’t even field one-tenth that number to oppose them, and no amount of sorties by B-52 bombers is going to redress that disparity.
10-1 is an even greater force disparity than the Americans faced at Chosin Reservoir. Every American serviceman in Bagram will be bagged by the Iranian ground forces within days. The 5th Fleet base in Bahrain would fall within a week, two at most.
This is a simple fact: the Iranians have an army that they can put on the field of battle, and Centcom doesn’t.
Commenters who knock MCM vessels for being made of “wood” (actually fibreglass sheathed wood), should stick to knitting rather than commenting on MCM/MW. Fibreglass by itself and foam and fibreglass combinations have been tried and found very wanting for MCM vessels. Aluminium works to an extent. Steel trawlers are used as COOPs but require substantial and frequent degaussing. Where the skills in building wooden vessels are still available, fibreglass sheathed wooden vessels are preferred.
“What is Trumpf going to do now that he has crashed Wall Street worse than 1929?” As the Chinese say, be careful what you wish for. The stock market is a zero sum game, for every d0llar lost, there is a d0llar gained. All a crash would do is put trillions into the hands of those you are fighting. All the Dot.com crash did was put trillions into the hands of those to finance Iraq and Afghanistan. All the 2008 crash did was put trillions into the hands for them to continue. The 1929 crash financed WWII, so if a crash is to occur today that is worse than 1929 you have just financed WWIII.
Pre-Revolution, I lived in Iran for 4 years. I have a good idea of how cunning they can be. Better than the Jews.
Personally, I suspect the Iranians carried out the minor attacks against tankers. They knew that no one would believe the USA when their media started reporting “Iranian Aggression”
The Iranians know that they are in a powerful position at the moment. Unlike Russia, they don’t have time on their side – because of the blockade that goes by the name of sanctions. Because of this, they are keen to start a serious confrontation soon. They know that they Americans cannot win. They also know that if they just wait, they will lose like the Iraqis did.
I suspect that those in Washington who still have brains are aware of this. I suspect they are trying to deescalate. However, the dominant Israel-First faction is quite irrational on this point. It can go either way. I suspect a big war in 2020 and economic mayhem planetwide. Strangely enough, I think the dollar will rise because the wealthy will be moving their capital to the USA – as they did in the past two world wars. Europeans will pay a very heavy price for the actions of the USA. They deserve it.
Time is not on the side of Trump either. He is overextended in Venezuela, Iran, Russia, China. He is also overextended in Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Afghanistan. His economy is looted and hollowed out with $222 trillion of total debt so his “trade wars are easy to win” is found wanting certainly by frustrated midwest farmers who are part of his electoral base. The latest MIC supplied weapons like the: F35s, USS G. Ford (CVN78), LCS are courting disaster just like the B-737 Max Design Team foolishly did. Claiming to be the author of “the Art of the Deal” but has no deal thus far to show for his tenure. The Rothschilds and globalists satraps continue to harass him. The Epstein scandal threatens to tarnish him. His MAGA has been relabelled MIGA. The elections are approaching quite fast.
I wish I could publicize your comment widely and the context as well. The Dollar, as you say will escalate as well, and I believe that it will.
As for a hot war, the khazar sabbetiens will roll back their agenda and start probing the enemy.
During the years preceding the second world war with Japan, US did everything to make Japan attack it and designate it as the aggressor by blockading it. It’s trying the same tactic with Iran.
This won’t work as Iran can turn off the oil spigot for the whole world’s economy.
Against Japan, the US turned off the oil and in desperation Japan was forced to attack the US fleet in Hawaii.
Even with a worldwide footprint, the zio-cons should cease and desist before world openion turns against them once again.
Lets be fair to Colonel Patrick Lang and his correspondents. If you look at that thread now, there are many realistic comments. Let’s also understand that in the case of a war (heavens forbid), they are Americans and would want America to win it. And let us also know that many of those correspondents do not encourage a war and understand that it is only a deranged person could encourage the current trajectory. Also, the discussion was Will Donald Trump kill his Presidency over Iran? This is a different question.
Let’s also understand that Mr Trump is a buffoon that thinks he is ‘all that’ and he is going to get his way by threats and punishment – the world again is hardening against that and he will perhaps be left muttering to himself in the White House while his own country falls to pieces around him.
For Iran, I understand that they just had to grin and bear it for many years, but now things are changing in a scope broader than Iran alone. I don’t blame you guys going toward a tit for tat strategy. I just hope you are wise enough to roll with the global changes and de-escalate where necessary. The world does not need this war at all and this does not mean I don’t see the vileness of the last number of US administrations against Iran.
What is interesting if one reads American comments on this issue, is that the general feeling is that Iran, China, others are just waiting to see if Donald Trump wins the 2020 election, and this is a narrow view. They might be living US election to election, but the rest of us do not. This election to election thinking is what makes the American people support strategic miscalculations from their administrations.
The world is changing on us – Trump is not going to get his way … China just said on trade .. Well, you know, if you wanna fight, bring it on! The US has lost whatever they have tried in the last number of years and cannot extricate themselves from some of their adventures. We have much working for us, and the biggest is the wholesale turning away from the US.
Godspeed to the Iranians, but please, don’t pull the trigger if you can de-escalate. Many are with you.
Hi Amaryth – what happened to that article about Trump from two days ago ? It was superb even if some details were questionable. I wish that would get re-posted – it prophesied Tulsi getting Rothschild support and Trump being taken down. Can Saker Blog repost it ?
Ann, I did not handle that one but perhaps The Saker will weigh in. Short answer, I don’t know.
Oh, man, brilliant. I laughed so hard about the burning down the plantation line. Outstanding.
I guess this explains why the US/UK stood down and watched while the IRGC boarded the tanker, whihc Magnier discussed. Seems like the plan is to continue economic genocide while avoiding a shooting war, if that is a plan.
The USA is always the only one to decide when and against whom to fight.
everyone else is just waiting their turn.
cowardice or wisdom?
what would happen if, hypothetically, Iran demand that the sanctions be lifted within 10 days or that Iran would officially declare war on the USA and begin destroying US bases in M.E. how many days is the minimum or optimum for declaring war on the USA without the US having time to gather an army to repel attacks and defend its resources in M.E, which are not small but still insufficient against Iran. i would love to see the 5 day ultimatum version and the 15 day ultimatum version. if America is seriously preparing for the war on Iran, the Iranians would be likely able to disrupt some US plans. if Americans really did not want to militarily clash with Iran other than a “small” limited adventure i Iraq or Syria, they would have to give up playing with Iran and dilute the Iranian ultimatum with serious concessions.
I base the question on this because of all the analysis I have read, I am convinced that the Iranians do not have time. i wouldn’t want to compare Japan, Pearl Harbor and Iran today.
Above are words that should be coming from usa leaders and citizens – simply the mention of history disqualifies potus.
We are not allowed by Islam to start a war. We are only allowed defense. A preemptive attack by Iran is simply not possible. But you can assure you, that the americans will suffer a bloodbath like no other in their history, if they attack Iran. The more amecians gather equipment and soldiers in the Persian Gulf, the better. the target just gets bigger and the destruction easier and more evident. As Soleimani himself said it once, the americans will be facing a kind of warriors, that they have never encountered on a battlefield. With a little bit of goodwill, you can understand, that for many of us, it is a dream come true.
We are not allowed by Islam to start a war. We are only allowed defense. A preemptive attack by Iran is simply not possible.
Couldn’t you argue that a full blockade has already occurred, & thus a state of war already exists? According to your interpretation of Islam, does a formal declaration of war from Washington need to be issued before unleashing the Iranian military? Or is the first USA missile crossing Iranian territory sufficient?
@ Dick Lenning
“Couldn’t you argue that a full blockade has already occurred, & thus a state of war already exists? According to your interpretation of Islam, does a formal declaration of war from Washington need to be issued before unleashing the Iranian military? Or is the first USA missile crossing Iranian territory sufficient?”
Very good question. I am not a scholar in islam, and you asked the brother, minute by minute, but i will try my best to answer your question. So the question is, is economic sanctions tantamount to a declaration of war?
The crazy thing is you don’t have to look any further then the first battle in the history of islam, the battle of badr. The young muslim community was in medina, after their expulsion from mecca by the pagan arabs. Of course not all the muslims came to medina, some of them stayed back in mecca. Eventually the pagan meccans boycotted the remaining muslims, and seized the property of the muslims, and sold it along one of the caravans. Then the call came that the muslims were allowed to defend themselves against this opression. The muslims went on to defeat the pagans in the battle of badr. This type of boycott was the old school version of what the US is trying to implement on Iran. If someone wants they can easily see the parallels between the two cases. I think the iranian leadership sees it similarly. I seen many times where they mentioned these different acts, are an act of war. As the writer above says, their finger is on the trigger, and anything can set it off.
I have the Tabari history at my home. I will look it up and get back to you. The point is, that we are bound by The Quran´s law in this regard.
Thank you Ahmed & Minute-by-Minute for your replies.
I am not sure how much impact English-language semantics has on Iranian leadership’s interpretation & application of Islamic laws. The AZ Empire’s places a great deal of importance on semantics; remember Obama’s non-sense about “kinetic military actions?”
Consider the actions of the AZ Empire so far:
*Unilateral seizure of Iranian financial assets
*US military aircraft continuing to invade Iranian airspace
*British seizure of Iranian merchant vessel
*Empire ships blockading Iranian ports
Comparing today’s situation with the Battle of Bandr, it is clear a state of (economic) war against Iran exists. The only question is whether or not Iranian leadership sees economic & military war as one & the same. If so, the pre-emptive strike is simply a tactical maneuvre, and not the “sucker punch” the AZ mouthpieces will certainly scream out.
If they do not wish to allow AZ Empire to build up all of its forces, perhaps Mr Zarif & General Solemeini could go to Twitter & issue Iran’s declaration of war literally 3 minutes before launching Iranian missiles?
The scale of China’s investment in Iran for the development of OBOR. Much of this investment would be destroyed by an American air campaign against Iran. The question is whether China would intervene militarily to protect its investment, and, of course, where. The probability of direct combat between US and Chinese forces is very high, but the neocons who control our foreign policy are likely unaware of the risk.
There hardly is any OBOR investment in Iran. Only India managed to spend barely $500 million on the Chabahar port in a 2 decade period. Now that port is idle too as US sanctions pulled India away from using it. China has invested nothing in Iran!
Ahson, you declare “China has invested nothing in Iran!”, so what about this from Pepe Escobar 2018?
“China is Iran’s top trading partner – especially because of its energy imports. ….Chinese companies are developing massive oil fields in Yadavaran and North Azadegan. China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) took a significant 30% stake in a project to develop South Pars – the largest natural gas field in the world. A $3 billion deal is upgrading Iran’s oil refineries, including a contract between Sinopec and the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) to expand the decades-old Abadan oil refinery.
In a notorious trip to Iran right after the signing of the JCPOA in 2015, President Xi Jinping backed up an ambitious plan to increase bilateral trade by over tenfold to US$600 billion in the next decade.
For Beijing, Iran is an absolutely key hub of the New Silk Roads, or the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). A key BRI project is the $2.5 billion, 926 kilometer high-speed railway from Tehran to Mashhad; for that China came up with a $1.6 billion loan – the first foreign-backed project in Iran after the signing of the JCPOA.”
For the time being let’s discount the ambitious plan to increase trade to $600G — time will tell how that turns out. But $3G for oil infrastructure plus $1.6G for rail infrastructure in 2018 doesn’t look like nothing to me.
Iran is not even getting paid for all the Iranian oil China is hoarding currently. A dozen Iranian tankers are parked off the chinese coast as of today unloading oil which the chinese are buying for pennies on the dollar. And storing it without payment. China for Iran is a horrible last resort. During the Ahmadinejad era, China did nothing in Iran on many of these huge oil and gas projects. They couldn’t hold up the contracts and could not deliver. When the JCPOA was signed, the first thing Iran did was to get rid of the Chinese, as fast as they could and awarded those Azadegan/ Yadavaran contracts to Japanese INPEX and French Total. The situation was so bad during the Ahmadinejad sanctions era that China used to pay for Iran’s oil by dumping of its goods in barter which Iran didn’t even want! You have no idea what Iran went thru in those days. It was a disaster. China took full advantage of the situation back then. And I’m sure they’d do it all over again.
Ahson. Thanks for that reply. I know nothing about Sino-Iranian trade but
your account sounds more like real business tactics of real businessmen than the enlightened geo-political strategy of Pepe’s account. Perhaps both are true?
Pepe Escobar sits on the round table of the Gatestone Institute – I have some proof so he’s not a great friend of Iran, for starters.
I hope these sentences find their proof soon…I’m totally with Iran even if my own home is devestated – which it may not be….but I’m on Iran’s side.
This is all sweet, but the truth is that it is the potential use of tactical nukes by the US which prevents the outbreak of hostilities between the US and Iran. The US has hinted at using these on a US military report published a month or so ago. Neither Russia nor China will aid Iran if the gloves come off. Iran is on its own. There is no alliance between the three nor is Iran even in the SCO yet, even though the SCO is a non military and only a political forum. Iran does not have an answer yet to a probable tactical nuke strike by the US. The US has been in Syria a long time and Israel almost daily strikes Syria, with hardly a response from either Assad or Tehran. We could call this strategic restraint, however neither Syria nor Iran are in a position to take on the IDF in the current scenario. Despite all the provocations, Iran has not reacted on Bahrain or Qatif yet with lots of killings of the local Shia’s by the Bahraini regime and the Sawdi’s. Iran’s options are limited. The future is uncertain.
The tactical nuke situation is a problem. But its not only Iran’s problem,but the World’s.Let say the US did use nukes against a non-nuclear state. What would be the results.First at least 80% of the World’s states would be horrified and enraged.Countries without nukes would move heaven and earth to get their own. Those with nukes would be discussing with each other how long to wait before destroying the US to protect themselves.As they would see a crazed insane rogue US as a “clear and present danger” to their states.And the decision would be made as Putin said before “if you have to fight,hit first”.Its the US that should fear its use of nukes.Because whatever small benefit they might hope to gain.That fatal mistake would very shortly lead to their elimination as a nation state.Nothing personal there,it would just have to be done.When an insane person points a gun at you and has shot once.You must “take him out” to save yourself.
Nothing would happen if the US nukes Iran. Absolutely nothing! The euro vassals will all fall in line, Israel would stay quiet and Russia and China will back off. The other nations are so poor and/ or dollar dependent that not a pip squeak will come out of them. Condemnations galore will ensue, but then it will be business as usual. Iran needs to wake up from this hallucination that it has to play the nice guy……….The world is a very evil place. Iran needs to go nuclear and weaponize its nukes quickly, or else there are no guarantees.
There is an unwritten guarantee that the Arab world as a whole, even as much as they are able to despise one another, will gather as a whole and destroy Israel if any Arab nation has nukes used against it.
Its a religious doctrine that basically trumps local feuds and has the ability to win regardless of the damage incurred by the Arab world. During this struggle it would also trigger a global economic depression as each nation would be required to service its own needs independently or regionally. Trump wanting to bring business home so that we are not dependent on other nations has the right idea in mind should this occur, but the time required to achieve this task could take quite a while.
So w/all this in mind, its not simply a threat to do this, or that situation will occur, cooler heads will prevail and the talk will simply walk and fade away like yesterdays printed newspaper.
Maybe not right away, but there most certainly will be severe consequences if USA were to nuke Iran:
*Shias across the Middle East will unite & finally overthrow US-allied governments controlling Iraq, Bahrain, & eastern oil-rich provinces of Saudi Arabia.
*The Shias will then overthrow the monarchy in Saudi Arabia, and claim to liberate Mecca & Medina. In fact, it would be easy for them to unite the Moslem world by inviting them to “liberate the holy city of Jerusalem.”
*An army drawn from 1 billion Moslems could easily over-run US bases & pro-USA governments across the Moslem world. Pro-USA Sunni governments in Afghanistan, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, & Egypt would have to either support (at least politically) this new crusade, or be overthrown.
*Flush with money either looted or “donated” by Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, etc, Pakistan could be easily convinced to share its expertise in nuclear weapons. At the same time, the remnants of Iranian government would feel strong incentives to withdraw from treaties prohibiting biological, chemical, & nuclear weapons.
*This new caliphate would have strong revenge motives to deliver NBC weapons upon Britain and USA.
In terms of fighting, there would not be any need for China nor Russia to provide soldiers, because an enraged Moslem world would happily join the fight. Beijing & Moscow would, at the very least, help Iran with clean-up & reconstruction. More likely, Moscow & Beijing would:
*Provide the new caliphate any equipment & training required for tanks, destroyers, large submarines, troop transports, air transports, etc.
*Reclaim lost territories in Ukraine, Taiwan, etc.
*Deal the final death blows to the US dollar
*Provide serious covert support for separatist & terrorist movements within USA & Canada.
Lest we forget, Bob, the Thanatopolis DC regime of the narcissistic psychopath, Trump, is chock full of ‘Christian’ fundamentalist fanatics who are looking forward to the End Times. They see Russia and China as ‘Gog and Magog’, believe that the propaganda and myths of the Torah/Bible are literal truth, and are yearning for the Rapture, which is why they pretend to like Jews and support Israel-only for their usefulness in precipitating their eschatological omnicide and bloodbath.
Not really. As Saker repeatedly has said any nuclear exchange between US and Russia would be MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) . If USA nuked Iran only the Almighty God will enact revenge if He decides. Putin and Russia are not stupid – a first strike against the USA will result in retaliation.
That would be “before” the US pulled the trigger.Once they cross that red line,then Russia and China will know that MAD no longer is a factor.And the choices would be to disarm themselves and give up to the US to prevent war.Or,steel themselves and hope that if they can takeout the US quickly enough they can survive.But those are their two choices.I doubt they will knell and accept slavery.But then I could be wrong and they might,time would tell.
Any idea as to what the Trump cabal is planning?
“US Army awards multi-year contract for 310,000 personal radiation dosimeters for “warfighters” deployed CONUS and OCONUS
Today FedBiz Opportunities announced a multi-year sole-source award ($$ amount redacted) to Mirion Technologies for 310,000 personal dosimeters for Army personnel (“warfighters”) deployed on and off the continental US. The justification document states that Mirion was the only vendor to meet key Army requirements, including (summarized): 1) must detect both residual gamma and neutron radiation; 2) must be able to accurately measure dose from prompt gamma and prompt neutron radiation from a nuclear criticality event (e.g., a nuclear blast or criticality event at nuclear power industry; 3) provide real-time display of dose and connectivity….
Makes you wonder what scenarios they are prepping for.
Here are the sources and links of possible interest:
FBO award notice: https://www.fbo.gov/?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=1e7900dee6fa90235d2a24fb6d194894&tab=core&_cview=0
Sole-source award justification: https://www.fbo.gov/utils/view?id=e5c6507b4ff24bef5651def7ae378f95
Mirion Technologies dosimeter data sheet for “military and homeland security applications: https://mirion.s3.amazonaws.com/cms4_mirion/files/pdf/spec-sheets/mbd-2_ops915.pdf?1562160850“
@Ahson: 1. “Neither Russia nor China will aid Iran if the [U$ uses nukes].”
Apart from slipping Iran a few nukes to arm Iranian missiles with? How many U$ military bases are within easy reach of Tehran?
2. “neither Syria nor Iran are in a position to take on the IDF”
Why should Iran and Syria bother to take on Little Izzie? They can leave that minor task to Hezb’Allah. The real foe of Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Russia and China is not even Uncle $cam. Their real foe is NATZO.
They will never slip Iran any nukes. It will not happen. Nuclear weapons and material have signatures. The US will find out who slipped them these nukes. It will not happen.
Iran has to develop nukes itself.
The conventional warheads that Iranian missiles use are small. They don’t cause much damage. You need thousands of missiles to cause the level of destruction that a single squadron of F-15’s carrying large payloads can, specially when the distances to reach targets in Syria and Lebanon are small. IDF can absolutely level what remains of Damascus or Beirut in short order. This is the threat that Iran takes seriously. The lives of its allies. Iran cares about not killing Israeli civilians. The Zionists don’t. And we know this.
A war will upset the cart bigtime for Iran. The damage inflicted on Lebanon and Syria will be catastrophic. Let alone on Iranian infrastructure.
Iranian leadership must realize that to respond meaningfully to the threat posed by the US and Israel, it must develop nukes and in principal ICBM’s and tip them with nukes, or it won’t be taken seriously. Hitting mainland USA with nukes is the only way Iran can protect itself from the threat of a tactical nuclear strike by the US military. There is no other way.
@Ahson: “Hitting mainland U$A is the only way to protect Iran…”
Hitting Rothshild’s nearby oil companies — KSA, Bahrein, Abu Dabi etc — is a much better way. Why go for the monkey when you can hit the organ-grinder where it really hurts — by upsetting his cash flow.
No argument there on Iran wiping out the facilities across the Gulf……yes Iran can wreak havoc…….but you know where I’m going with the ICBM thing. This is very important for Iran. They must be able to threaten London/ DC/ NYC etc with total destruction to be taken seriously.
@Ahson: Why? Why must Iran “be able to threaten London/ DC/ NYC etc with total destruction to be taken seriously.” You threaten all the time — that the U$ will nuke Iran, that Israel will flatten Damascus and Beirut — but I don’t take your bluster seriously. Whereas NATZO has been forced to take the Arc of Resistance very seriously as time goes by because of their proven deeds — Iran, Syria and Lebanon.
“We’re gonna take out Lebanon, Syria and Iran in 5 years”. — Uncle $cam, 2001.
The reality is in front of you. Syria and Iraq have been totally destroyed. Lebanon is dysfunctional. Even Turkey is dysfunctional. The West has literally destroyed the entire region. Iran is the last bastion left. The threat of using tactical nukes against Iran is real, if it comes down to it. Iran has been on the defensive ever since the US invaded Afghanistan. There is a reason for this. Iran can’t retaliate much beyond the Persian Gulf. The Hezb option against Israel risks the complete destruction of Lebanon and possibly whatever remains of Syria. The Sawdi’s have leveled Yemen to stone age, while the poor Houthi’s launch pin prick missile and drone strikes. If there is a strategic dialogue in Tehran, the first consensus should be to go nuclear. That in itself will guarantee stability and thwart any attack plans. Mark my words, this is something Iran will have to do sooner or later, probably after the supreme leader passes away. Nobody in Iran is fooled into believing that Iran can somehow negotiate its troubles away, specially with an adversary as cunning and deceptive as the West is. Iranian missiles need that massive bang for the buck, or else it will be just like that 2006 Lebanon war repeat with very lopsided and disproportionate losses incurred by Lebanon and Hezbollah.
Everything you have written here is pure fantasy…from Russia being in ‘serious trouble’…while building an insurmountable lead in key aerospace technologies like hypersonics and scramjet propulsion…to dominating the global energy sector…including nuclear, where they dominate not only technologically, but the global market share…to say nothing of their decade long monopoly on human space travel and advanced rocket engines…not to mention of their incredibly solid fiscal position…
How’s life in the 1990s…?
LOL…I’ve almost forgotten that funky era…
And then the disney ride continues with Syria is ‘destroyed’…when in fact the only thing that is destroyed is the impotent has-been empire’s plan for regime change…
And then we have the tactical nukes bed-time story…
Here is the technical reality of US tactical nukes…they are GRAVITY BOMBS that must be dropped from ground attack jets…
How do you suppose those jets are going to get inside Iranian airspace…?
Iran has formidable air defenses…including long range S300s capable of reaching 250 km…in fact four brigades worth comprising several dozen mobile launchers capable of putting hundreds of SAMs in the air…
Not to mention their own indigenous AD systems…the US certainly didn’t expect Iran to be able to down its $200 million MQ4 Triton turbofan powered spy drone at 65,000 ft…just like they didn’t expect the Iranians to commandeer the super secret RQ170 a few years ago…
In 1999 the world saw tiny Serbia with its Vietnam era Soviet SAMs battle a 1,000 aircraft NATO air armada to a draw…downing TWO F117s in the process…look up and read Lambeth’s analysis in the USAF’s flagship professional publication aerospace power journal…
We live in a world where engineers RULE…the US has become an engineering midget…Iran graduates as many engineers as the US…look it up in Forbes…Russia graduates twice as many…the 100 percent corrupted US defence industry is incapable of making modern, effective world class weapons systems…
All they have is bluff and bluster…until they get the odd wake up call, like the MQ4 downing…not even daring to respond…
Still…it was entertaining reading your comments…dreamers and delusionists can be quite hilarious…
If the failing US – that has dutifully taken its place as a lickspittle vassal of Israel – should dare to use nuclear weapons against the Islamic Republic of Iran it would be a fatal mistake on its part.
It would effectively kill the NPT and
rather that instill fear in other countries, it would force every country to get by whatever means, tactical nuclear weapons and have them ready at a moments notice to use against the US.
Which country would even pretend to listen to the US after that?
The US will not be able to use nuclear weapons against Iran and return to life as normal the day after.
But rest assured, the US will soon be eclipse as the pre-eminent global power and will sooner’ rather that later have to face reality and fall in line.
As for Israel – the real evil force behind the US thuggery presently on display – it too will some get its comeuppance, as was decreed long ago.
Nothing lasts forever!
Simple question: how many ground troops does CENTCOM have in its area of operations?
Because Stormin’ Norman didn’t say Boo! to Saddam Hussein until he had built up his ground forces to over half a million GI’s.
Even dumb ol’ Tommy Franks made sure he had over 400,000 American troops under his command before he moved against Iraq, and he was deliberately told to wage that war on the cheap.
Iran has a far, far more formidable army than Iraq had, and much more motivated.
And Iran can mobilize well over 500,000 men to storm into Iraq and Afghanistan.
What could CENTCOM’s current commander (you know, General Whatshisname) put in their way?
Is it 10,000 American soldiers?
Or 20,000 GIs?
Or is it 50,000 all-up?
Whatever it is, it isn’t going to be anywhere near enough.
Bolton will convince Trump that this will be an air-war, and his moustache will wilt in astonishment when the Iranians reply with “No, actually, it’s a ground-war and, oh boy, is it ever on…”.
This is an excellent read.
The Saudis’ Achilles heel is not their oil infrastructure. THAT is the Achiiles’ heel of the Western World, principally the USA and Europe. The cutoff of oil would mean total Western economic collapse and the end of the petrodollar as the world’s reserve currency.
(NOT a collapse for Russia. US and Western sanctions have made it, not only self-sufficient in energy, but also self-sufficient in food, minerals, and manufacturing as well.)
No, the Achilles’ heel of KSA is the fact that the entire country is run by foreigners. Native Saudis are bone lazy, arrogant, unskilled creeps who could not run a dog-catching truck by themselves. For all their diamond-encrusted cars and gold-hemmed robes, they rely utterly and totally on skilled foreigners to run everything in their country, except their stables of camels, which they keep for the occasional sexual encounter.
When the bombs begin to fall on Riyadh and the rockets begin to fly, all those foreigners will flee by any means possible, as fast as possible. And they will not return. The ENTIRE Saudi economy will cease to function, not just the oil part of it. Permanently. Back to their tents and sheep’s eyeballs.
And this is the unspoken Achilles’ heel, also, of Israel. When the Hezbollah rockets – all 65,000 of them – begin to fall on Israel, all the French, German, British, Russian and American Jews in that country – or about 75% of the population – will dust off their old foreign passports and flee back to wherever they came from, leaving Israel with a 5-to-1 Palestinian majority and no skilled Jews to run the infrastructure.
Iran does not just hold all the cards in this poker game. They are the dealer and the bank too. I really, really hope Israel decides to attack Iran unilaterally. That would mean the end of the Jewish State, the American Empire, the Kingdom of Saud, Britain, and the European Union – all the crazies who now are creating havoc in the world and murdering millions in the process.