Author Rostislav Ishchenko (Ростислав Ищенко)
A sensible politician always respects his opponent and assumes that if to him (sensible politician) something appears obvious, his opponent took this possibility into account, and, if that option is undesirable for him (an opponent), he is looking for (or possibly has already found) an alternative non-obvious solution. Americans have lost several geopolitical rounds to Russia for the simple reason that they believed they considered all possible options and were forcing Moscow to choose between bad and very bad, whereas Putin managed to find a third move not anticipated by Washington.
Russian leadership, appreciating that the fate of the country is at stake, tends to take into account all possible developments and act prudently, having prepared a counter-move for every move of their opponents. Moreover, Moscow plans the game further ahead, and that is why Washington often gets into time trouble and is forced to improvise blindly responding to a well-prepared strategy of their opponents.
Domestic alarmists, in their ambitiousness and inadequacy, often explain their grievances with the authorities very simply – I do not understand what they are doing, which means they are wrong. However, even defeatists sometimes ask sensible questions. Here is one: “Suppose that Moscow and Donetsk believe that they trapped Kiev into Minsk agreements, and they are waiting when the junta attacks, thereby discrediting itself in the eyes of Europe and undermining the ability of the USA to mobilize EU to support its Ukrainian policy. However, Kiev and Washington must have anticipated this scenario. What happens if they don’t attack, but remain in their positions and keep shelling Donbass cities, as they have been doing for almost a year now?”
The alarmists consider unconvincing the argument that neither Kiev nor Washington has time and resources (especially with the coming new wave of global systemic crisis, which can eliminated old world order along with the weakened Hegemon) to prolong indefinitely the situation that does not yield a positive result. The alarmists’ viewpoint makes sense: empirically this model can be tested only as the situation develops, whereas there are no limitations to the theoretical models that can be constructed. Not to mention that history often demonstrates that the deviation of one year in timing is the usual thing (some events, like the coup in Ukraine, were supposed to happen later than they did, whereas other events were supposed to happen early, but still didn’t).
Thus, if Washington decides to procrastinate some more and revokes its marching orders to Kiev, it is necessary to have an alternative plan that would allow Russia to win the political game in the positional war.
I believe we can guess the key elements of this plan. At least, the sequence of events in the last 6 months suggests that it is not a series of responses, but a planned strategy. Or, even if the first responses were forced by the situation, by the end of the summer of 2014 a certain system emerged. One way or the other, today we observe not just reactions of Russian authorities to events, but rather a creation of mechanisms to direct those events.
What do I mean by that?
First, as a result of Ukrainian blockade of Donbass, economic ties of LPR/DPR were reoriented towards Russia (even though technically via South Ossetia).
Second, due to Ukrainian financial blockade the Republics introduced multi-currency system (hryvna/rouble/US dollar), which turned the territories not controlled by Kiev into the zone of Russian rouble, which accounts for >80% of cash transactions.
Third, due to administrative blockade by Ukraine the Republics tried to introduce their own identification documents. However, as LPR/DPR are not internationally recognized, these IDs do not have legal standing even in Russia. After that the plan emerged to give Donbass people Russian passports.
Forth, in the last days of August Russian media started discussing the possibility of referendum in Donbass as early as this fall regarding their unification with Russia.
While the first two items could have been a forced reaction to the situation, offering Russian passports is a political decision. By recognizing the residents of LPR/DPR as Russian citizens, the authorities take on a serious responsibility. Russia has an obligation to protect its citizens regardless of the place of their residency, regardless how and when they became citizens, by birth 20 years ago, or got it just yesterday by renouncing their Ukrainian citizenship. It is clear that millions of Donbass residents won’t leave for Russia. Half has already moved out, and this is likely the limit. Besides, many plan to return, and some are already returning. Thus, Russia will have to protect its citizens where they live, in LPR/DPR.
As Russian passport for most will serve as the only document allowing them to move beyond the tiny territories controlled by Donbass militia, it is easy to guess that the majority of Donbass residents would obtain Russian passports. What’s more, according to the Russian Immigration Service, more than a million people have already emigrated from Ukraine (mostly from Donbass) to Russia. Many of these will also use the opportunity to obtain Russian citizenship in Donbass. Within a short period of time, Donbass might have more Russian citizens than Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or Transnistria. At this point a new problem will emerge. When Kiev regime murders its own citizens, it might not be good, but remains their internal affair (at least, the US considers it so, in contrast to what they believed about Libya), but when they start murdering Russian citizens, the Constitution demands that Russian authorities protect them. The difference between goodwill and the law is huge.
Finally, the most important aspect. Even before Russian passports are granted en mass, LPR/DPR leak the info (otherwise, where could the media have gotten this story?) that right after the October elections (i.e., in November-December, this year) they plan a referendum regarding LPR/DPR joining Russia.
What is so important about this? Information about the plans appeared and was spread before implementation of these plans. Hence, Kremlin wanted “our friends and partners” to know this and take it into account in their plans. In fact, they are told: “if you don’t attack by the end of September, we will give people Russian passports, then conduct a referendum, where Russian citizens will vote for joining Russia. Then we will talk to you in a very different political situation”.
Importantly, both Kiev and Washington know that the passports will be given and referendum will be held. Then, like in Abkhazia and Crimea, Russia will cite Kosovo precedent and the will of the people. And nobody would be in a position to shoot, because they would have to shoot at the territory that a nuclear power proclaimed as its own. And to shoot its citizens. And that will have dire consequences. Some might say that USA and Ukraine are ready to yield Donbass and would be only happy to do so. In fact, this is not the case. The US needs war, not peace, but only a war where Russia is the aggressor. Thus, the US would not let Kiev to cede Donbass via peaceful negotiations, but would try to make Kiev provoke Russia. However, lets assume that those, who believe in the possibility of Ukraine ceding Donbass are right.
Well – it won’t be able to cede.
First, referendum won’t be binding for Russia. Moscow can “think” as long as it likes, using the referendum to strengthen its negotiating position, repeating the official mantra about territorial integrity of Ukraine, but hinting that since March 2014 the situation has changed considerably to Kiev’s disadvantage, so that the demands to Kiev grew larger (in fact, Kiev could not meet its obligations even before that).
Second, the authorities of LPR/DPR did not define the territorial limits of their rule. In some cases they talked about the whole Donetsk/Lugansk regions. At the same time there still exists in Donbass the “parliament of Novorossia”, and LPR/DPR leaders sometimes talk about liberation of the whole Novorossia as their goal. What is Novorossia? Most include into it eight regions of Southern and Eastern Ukraine (Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson, Zaporozhya, Dniepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Donetsk, and Lugansk). Some add Kirovograd region. Some call Kharkov and Sumy regions Slobozhanschina, considering Donbass as a separate region. Bottom line is, the boundaries of Novorossia are uncertain and can be expanded or shrunk at will.
Third, Zaharchenko promised several times that freedom fighters would reach Kiev and Lvov. By the way, it is a reasonable promise, as the war cannot be stopped until fascists are defeated in their homeland.
Thus, the question of the powers of the LPR/DPR governments and “the parliament of Novorossia” are not defined and can cover “certain parts of Lugansk and Donetsk regions”, as Kiev puts it, as well as the whole of Ukraine. Generally speaking, the powers of participants in the civil war are define by the capabilities of their armies.
It follows that Kiev might be unable to declare current front lines as the border. The recognition of Donbass independence by Kiev opens the prospect of Donbass joining Russia. Thus, the fight that lasted a year and a half becomes meaningful. As the result, the resistance to the junta might increase in Kharkov, Odessa, and other Novorossia cities. Kiev won’t be able to gather a new army and move it against these regions. Potential troops would remember that they fought for a year and a half against LPR/DPR, and then Kiev signed peace on conditions worse than it was offered in March of 2014 when Donbass only wanted federalization of Ukraine.
Thus, Kiev cannot voluntarily cede Donbass without endangering its own survival.
In essence, Moscow demonstrates to Washington that it is ready for the new escalation in Donbass and intends to do something terrible to Kiev (the threats were so clear, that Merkel and Hollande got alarmed and called Poroshenko to Berlin to convince him not to take that risk). Russia also demonstrates that even in the “no war, no peace” situation it is ready to force Kiev to choose peace with concessions, the full scale of which is unclear.
Now Washington has to choose between two evils. It can risk and, despite grumblings from its European allies, which can get out of control, initiate Kiev aggression in Donbass that would bury Minsk and deprive the EU of arguments in its dialogue with Moscow. It can also sit and wait while Moscow, using Minsk agreements as cover, unhurriedly, with visible pleasure and with whatever timing it deems convenient, digests Ukraine (starting with Donbass, but not ending there). During this time, Washington would have to pay for totally useless regime in Kiev until Moscow is ready to put an end to it.
In any case, even the info about the desire of LPR/DPR to conduct referendum about joining Russia expands the room for Russian political and diplomatic maneuvering. If the referendums were conducted, Russian positions in Ukrainian crisis would become unassailable. Collectively, the measures currently taken and planned in Donbass suggest that somewhat belatedly and with bigger losses Donbass will follow Crimea, while creating conditions for several other temporarily Ukrainian regions to follow suit. Still, as this scenario would be too good for Russia allowing it to divide and shape Ukraine any way it likes, I believe that the US will bet on war. Among other things, it would let the US take an active position and attempt to wrest the initiative from Russia’s hands. It is still not clear whether the US will start a war specifically in Donbass. Washington can choose a third option and initiate an all-out war on the territory controlled by Kiev regime.
Of course, this option would lead to the demise of junta, fragmentation of Ukraine, and rapprochement between Russia and the EU to solve a common problem of pacifying Ukrainian Nazis. It would allow Washington, though, to free up resources tied down in Ukraine and use them elsewhere, as well as be confident that the resources of Moscow and, partially, of Brussels will be tied down to pay for the reconstruction of Ukrainian economy, control of territories, and the attempts to achieve some kind of EU-Russia consensus regarding the fate of the remains of Ukraine.
Rostislav Ischenko, political analyst of “Russia today” information agency.
only The Hegemon can fix the mess caused. I mean if there happens a real huge tragedy to the USA then their elites will probably finally wake up and show sincere will to make world better. And only with help of other dedicated participants as Russia. The EU is incapable of anything, just useless, it failed even as a prostitute on world stage.
And when did it began? Naming France the victorious ally after WW2 provided with a seat in security council of UNO? Nooo, a long time before…
The US, France and Germany call for “tough” actions against “the Assad regime” in order to solve the refugee crisis.
Their reasoning is that “we” should tackle the root cause of the massive inflow of refugees.
That cause is of course the puppy kicking dictator. So to help Syria is to bomb Syria after NATO has ravaging the nation with a proxy war for four years already.
If cynicism had a smell it would overwhelm everybody’s nose on this planet.
The same trick over and over again, I’m so sick of it.
At least it’s getting harder to sustain the fictions about Assad and the true causes of the Syrian conflicts. Germany is the US echo-chamber, and France – via its Intel forces operating on behalf of the energy cartels – was a major player in the destabilization process (Thierry Myassan is especially good on this vector.)
Now a UN report – sans any real solution, so no surprises there – is finally publicizing the role of foreign powers in the conflict, though emphasizing regional, rather than those (US, France, UK) further afield.
This refugee crisis – the worst since WW 11 – should by rights bring down the Anglo-Zionist puppet govs of France, German and the UK.
Q; WW 11
R; Hold on… did I just miss 9 other WWs?
Oh, my… and I just woke up…
‘…miss 9 other WWs?’
Guess you did Dannyboy – you sleep too much.0:
Or maybe dodgey thumb + crappy not-as-smart-as-it-thinks-it-is-phone = large-scale historical revisionism..0:
UK Cameron also blames Assad……sighs…..despite Rus still saying he is the legitiate president……..west cannot listen to commonsense let alone understand international law…..so has none of its own to offer,…….I must say I have been very struck by the dignity and fortitude and forbearance of the Syrian refugees, but understand how stressed out they are beginning to get.
Michel van Dijk,
Yeah, I think you’ve figured out what will happen next. Moon of Alabama is also saying there is something manipulated about the coverage of the “migrant crisis”– provenance of the photos, reaction of the leaders, etc.
“The migrants media campaign does not feel like a normal headline rush but like a planned information operation. Who is behind this campaign and what is the intent?”—http://www.moonofalabama.org/-
Yes,I saw where Cameron is blaming Assad.He hopes no one will remember that 5 years ago there was peace in Syria.No refugee’s fleeing the Western backed terror unleashed in that country.So if he didn’t blame Assad quickly.People might start pointing the finger at the real guilty parties,the Western cabal.
Firstly, thanks to Saker for getting this translated, and big thanks to Seva for the translation.
Secondly, Ischenko is a good analyst who sees nuance where others of us sometimes miss.
For example, near the end:
“I believe that the US will bet on war. Among other things, it would let the US take an active position and attempt to wrest the initiative from Russia’s hands. It is still not clear whether the US will start a war specifically in Donbass. Washington can choose a third option and initiate an all-out war on the territory controlled by Kiev regime.”
That third option makes great sense for the US and warmongers in NATO. They finally force Russia into all of Ukraine. They have the means in place with all the equipment left behind from the exercises with Ukies in various locales in the West of Ukraine. They could rapidly ignite Odessa region, forge attacks toward Crimea and launch in the Azov Mariupol regions.
There is every indication that the US is getting desperate. The only leverage in Ukraine that Russia has is the very real force they can use to dismantle rapidly (days) all that the US and NATO may use. When a few cool heads weigh the Russian military might, this option for war across all of Ukraine may not be played. The stampede into Poland will destabilize that NATO ally. And all the Eastern front will quiver with real fear as they see NATO collapse inside Ukraine.
War sounds like an American strong hand to play. But the results will shatter their hold on the vassals.
We can hope as we watch things unfold.
Don’t worry countries like Poland and the small baltics states are very good at being russophobic in peace time(in words only).But if something really happens ‘live’ near their borders,they will be the first to surrender(not in combat as there will be no combat at all)but suddenly they will ‘love Putin,love Russia,ask the EU to stop these stupid sanctions etc..they have no balls at all.
Same for the nazis in Kiev they will leave for the airport asap if some real action takes place.Azov and others crazies wil not survive one single day against RF forces.The other left will capitulate or switch to the Rebels/RF side…
You will also see Merkel and co show their real weakness and they may eventualy abandond the US if it gets serious….same they have no balls.
Putin knows that very well..just keep waiting.
But for sure about Syria they now have a perfect pretext(a fake migrants invasion organized by the CIA)some new kind of color revolution.
These insane people still believe that Syria will be better without Assad,I wish them good luck…this time they will have a real migrants invasion but on a much larger scale as ISIS/AQ take the power.
If they believe that their pipelines projects will be easier…they will be making a big mistake.
Don’t forget that the real goal of the coup in Ukraine was to weaken Putin to make some kind of deal:ukraine versus Syria.
Same for the sudden Iran deal.
There will be no war in Europe,the US needs this market too much to survive.They are stupid but not to that point.
When Assad will fall,then the migrants crisis will be over the day after(the fake CIA one).
The deal is to push the EU to war not in Ukraine but against Assad,nothing else.Nobody cares about Ukraine.Which is now a failed state,mission accomplished.
Next step will be both TPP and TAFTA(their only aim is to isolate both Russia and China nothing else).
But it is not so easy for the banksters as they realize that RF has almost no debt and the Chinese buy all US T bonds.
Are they going to destroy their main sponsor?Very unlikely.
For Russia they will wait that Putin leave office one day and try to ‘buy’ the next one,cheaper than a war and less dangerous.If they succeed RF will be back in the 1990’s…
Putin will be flying to the UN on sept 15th,if I was him I would take special care during my trip…..they may try anything including the most crazy ones.
What about the sanctions that would come thundering down on Russia for absorbing Donbass? While giving Donbass residents Russian citizenships and allowing them to vote in a referendum would strength Russia moral position..
It would not do much to less the propaganda and sanctions that would thunder down on Russia the moment it moved troops into Donbass or declared it Russian territory.. If anything it would confirm much NATO propaganda about Russia wanting to gobble up tiny peace-loving democracies and establish a neo-soviet empire.. And the referendum held by DPR/LPR to join Russia would be dismissed as “At gun-point” if there are no OSCE monitors there, and OSCE will likely refuse to take part.
I believe you are one step behind when you write: “. . .sanctions that would come thundering down on Russia for absorbing Donbass . . .it would confirm much NATO propaganda about Russia wanting to gobble up tiny peace-loving democracies . . .”
All this has already happened and Russia has responded asymmetrically with the creation of BRICS financial infrastructure and the expansion of the SCO (Shanghai Coop Org). The empire is spinning its wheels–albeit crushing many people, as well as the EU, in them the while–wasting its resources and credibility.
The troubling aspect is the thought that the empire only knows how to create chaos so it faces the need to create more as its schemes fail.
Rif, you’re right.
The author left out the additional sanctions that wd come down on Russia. They’d probably cut Russia off from SWIFT for one thing. Russia created only a domestic SWIFT. She didn’t follow thru w an international SWIFT that was to be complete in June or July. Instead she settled for a seat on the Board of Directors of the existing SWIFT system. Don’t know if that wd protect against cutoff. I’m sure there are other sanctions that can be applied.
Penelope, where did you get that info please ? no links again to your encyclopaediac info
This is Joseph Farrell about the new SWIFT international system set up by Russia
er, 2 sec google http://sputniknews.com/business/20150213/1018240631.html
Plese! Are you for real? Do you live under the bubble? Penelope did not say anything out of ordinary, although I may have come across something mentioning that maybe Bricks (China) are/is working on a similar bank transfer system for the Brick countries to take away western control from their transactions.
Similarly to China laying down fibre-optic cable, which is going to connect the Bricks in order to avoid the internet snooping.
I guess anon that you didn’t listen to my link either
Sorry, I don’t have time to listen to Farrell’s video right now. Just taking a break from something I’m doing to look for answers to my posts; glad I found yours.
Here’s link that Russia now has seat on Board of SWIFT. http://in.rbth.com/news/2015/03/11/russia_gets_seat_in_swift_board_of_directors_media_41909
Anonymous, Thank you for responding. If you read very carefully you will see that the link you supplied announces the DOMESTIC Swift in February. http://sputniknews.com/business/20150213/1018240631.html
I know it says analogous to international SWIFT. But if you read every word in the subhead, you’ll see it’s for 91 domestic banks. The Russian version of International SWIFT was due in June or July. I assume it was never completed cuz it was never announced. Perhaps it wasn’t possible since surely US wd oppose.
Anonius, Please don’t mock someone just for asking a question; we’re polite to each other here. I’m sure MANY people have mistaken Russia’s announcement of her domestic SWIFT as a completion of the alternative international SWIFT that she intended.
If anyone has countervailing info regarding this, please let us all know.
Here’s a quick overview from Farrel of the Japan-Russia payment card – the Mir-JCB -that Ann posted about.
He thinks the implications are huge.
Thanks Eimar…Penelope, you’re too busy to get the real deal…just your propaganda.
Ann & Eimar, Thank you. I think this is the 2nd big credit card, no? I guess there’s good earnings in credit cards.
Something else in the article looks important: ” So the deal with Russia possibly heralds something else: tacit, behind-the-scenes long-term negotiations between Mr. Abe and Mr. Putin, for access to all that Russian Siberian energy, in return for Japanese funds to develop the region,”
Turns out Power of Siberia is in trouble for lack of funding. Power of Siberia probably will be postponed until Altai is complete– financing problems:
“Speculation is that plunging oil and gas prices could be part of the reason for any possible postponement. Since mid-June global crude oil prices are off nearly 60 percent, while natural gas prices are also off by at least half since the start of last year. The quandary for Russia in this ongoing price decline is that the government receives as much as anywhere between 30 percent to 50 percent of its revenue from its oil and gas sector. Media reported that low energy prices have hurt the case for the investment required to develop the new fields the pipelines would serve.”
People don’t seem to realize that the Russian economy’s in trouble– state workers not being paid, etc.
Maybe Japan is the answer. Two reservations, tho:
1. She’s REALLY not a free agent legally. Same status as Germany– classified by UN as “enemy state” since WWII. Officially has to consult US on all important decisions.
2. Some kind of serious financial difficulty relating to QE. I didn’t have time to study it. http://www.zerohedge.com/suddenly bank of Japan has unexpected problem I can’t give you the actual link. ZH is down right now.
I don’t think the EU can live with more sanctions, except the face-saving freezing of the western-based assets of people who don’t have any.
OSCE will definitely not monitor the elections. I think it needs to be more top-of-mind that the OSCE is there because Kiev asked them in.
I read a delightful little internal history of OSCE that said, roughly, “In the early days we languished in low-budget obscurity, but then with the dissolution of Yugoslavia we got a chance to demonstrate what a useful tool we could be for sticking it to the Russians.”
Very interesting article, I certainly hope it comes to pass, the people of Donbass deserves peace and security after living under USA backed ukronazi terror for so long.
A scenario that would make the collapse of Ukraine likely is if things proceeded exactly as stated in the article, but after or before the resident were given citizenships the UAF was totally crushed in battle, that would really inspire resistance and raise the spirits of those living under oligarch/nazi rule in occupied Ukraine.
Rastislav Ishchenko is incorrect. The DPR/LPR are not planning a referendum on joining Russia. This was a rumor. Both Alexander Zakharchenko and Andrei Purgin have made public announcements to this effect. See for example the article “Donetsk Republic Leader Dismisses Rumors About Referendum on Joining Russia”, under Tuesday September 1, at (scroll to title):
or “Mass Media resources announced referendum in Donetsk of joining to Russia? [Not true]”, under Thursday August 20 at (scroll to title):
Rastislav Ishchenko, or at least the “organization” he is president of, is based in Ukraine, according to the Valdai Discussion Club website.
Karl, I think Rastislav’s point is that the “incorrect rumor” was intended as an official leak of Russian intentions. Whether he really knows this or not, the article is premised on how this wd play out.
very interesting analisys. but i think, i know how does it sound, but when it comes to military solutions Russia has to sink american destroyer in int waters in Black sea. yes. there is no other way to defeat NATO and all those NATO countries, weak, joined to US empire. american defeat will be first step to change tide in thinking of population in Ukraine and all other who have doubt about everything. this is politically wrong and i know it is insane , but, what? everything what is happening in eastern EU is results of single thing; nobody stopped US military. Russia would not be able to positive solve Ukrainian crisys without american losses. not NATO losses, american losses.
awaiting stones….be merciful
Sanjin, first a question. How come sometimes you’re Sanjay and sometimes Sanjin ? I hope I’m not breaking any courtesy rules by asking….
On the topic of your comment about sinking a US carrier naval vessel in Black Sea…what pollution Sanjay !! I would like the Donald Cook to about face by itself, like last time…
But…otoh, it would be pretty sensational.
i am from Croatia and have t-com IP address. Sanjay is probably from Asia. we are two different persons in two difernt body. anyway , i am against any violence agains any living being. i don, t even eat meat because of ethic reason. so don’t worry. my post about violent clash between Russian army and US naval forces is just imagination. but, military logic is absolute diferent from civilian. that is why civilian has to be MoD. US is pushing Russia to some kind of surrender. Russia, by US, has to give something very valuable to empire. i don’t know what is that; Syria, Ukraine, Crimea or something else. because empire reputation is at stake and US will do whatever is needed to maintain it status. almost every intl US agreement and contract is shadowed by US military. they will do what they have to do and Russia, despite reasonable approach, will have to do what must do. as my friend, ex soldier use to say; it is not normal, but it is natural.
There’s war in Ukraine, on the borders of Europe – (Europe, what Europe?) It is a nightmare for those involved, a terrible nightmare. It is conducted at the hands of a fascist regime and the world turns away. It is conducted at the hands of that murderer Poroshenko, he with his filthy blood money…
Shame on the world. Kiev will return to Russia, however it happens, it must.
Q; A sensible politician
R; Can’t find a bigger, greater contradiction in words like the above. You have to be emotionally lobotomized if you want to survive as a politician.
That’s like being a salmon, having to cross the Himalayas. Good luck and good grieve.
Q; The alarmists.
R; Any idea how those who refused to fight during WWI [aka ‘The Great War’] and WWII were treated?
I’d rather have alarms going off that are wrong, than live in silence.
Brilliant! Washington is in a worsening position as it’s already lost it’s war on Russia, is losing it’s plans to take over China, is facing a whole country uprising in Japan to force the US troops to finally leave after over 70 years as obedient Abe signs legislation to force Japan to join any US war of choice, even on China, it’s brother. And it has a deteriorating infrastructure that would indicate the US is a third world country. US civil unrest will only grow as the Federal government refuses to fix anything, except it’s police state arms and incredible, unbelievable, propaganda rule globally and at home. It has more interest in making small, independent, States shatter into nothing, large ones break into multiple sections warring against one another so they can be taken over..than to respect it’s own citizens needs.
Off topic but relevant to how governments can twist anything to suit their selective authoritarian control.
The purpose of any encryption is to prevent anyone but the intended recipient from deciphering it. It is assumed that anyone could potentially read a message during transit, but unless they can decipher it then the capture is futile. Everyone use encryption, whether they realise it or not, and on any financial transaction that isn’t hard cash. You are using strong encryption at the grocery store if you pay by plastic.
Perhaps not realised by most is that encryption software and algorithms, government standard or otherwise, are totally in the public domain. Similar to a scrambled egg, having or knowing the specifications of the egg-beater doesn’t help restore the original egg. This is perhaps not immediately intuitive, but it is absolutely crucial because over time the strength of these algorithms must be continually tested and any weaknesses, however slight, found. There are very few credible cryptographers in the world and they all attack each others algorithms -and welcome it. Only by continual peer review and continuous improvement can encryption be proven reliable.
It is axiomatic that any ‘secret’ encryption algorithms will be rapidly broken and frequently without the user knowing it. That’s what makes this Turkey official look like, well, a turkey:
Vice News fixer ‘charged over encryption software’
In other news a suspected journalist was charged with terrorism for using a car. It is well known that cars are used as car-bombs.
The piece assumes that ‘the Hegemon’ is desperate and it’s only option is war. I don’t think I agree. This is not an enemy that should be underestimated. I think that ‘the Hegemon’ would be quite wise to let the cease fire take effect and consolidate it’s gains, i.e. the damage it’s done Russia and it’s new colony in Ukraine are quite a good result for it. And, it appears this direction would take all by surprise as well.
Q; I think that ‘the Hegemon’ would be quite wise to let the cease fire take effect and consolidate it’s gains
R; The Ukraine is like a heroin addicted, 3rd cousin over; nobody wants to really ‘house’ him.
That land will be a very costly addition to the EU’s rapidly deflating budget… and thus remain non the wiser in the end…
That reply is mine. Sorry mod.
Russia in Syria, sounds well-sourced: http://www.unz.com/ishamir/the-die-is-cast/
Newcomer, ALL of the stories about Russian planes & personnel in Syria originate w Thierry Meyssan.
The most detailed one is here.
It links to Syria’s Al-Watan where the story is written directly by Thierry. It’s in Arabic but translates fine.
The 2 Israeli reports in Ynet & in Debka exaggerate the story.
The link you supply is written by Israel Shamir who is a reputable pro-Russian writer, but he is just picking up the same story w/o any more sources & less detail.
I guess we are just going to have to wait & see.
What a subtle mind Rostislav Ishchenko has!
“Russia also demonstrates that even in the “no war, no peace” situation it is ready to force Kiev to choose peace with concessions, the full scale of which is unclear.”
“If the referendums were conducted, Russian positions in Ukrainian crisis would become unassailable.” [Well, only to the degree that Crimea is unassailable to the lying media.]
“Collectively, the measures currently taken and planned in Donbass suggest that somewhat belatedly and with bigger losses Donbass will follow Crimea, while creating conditions for several other temporarily Ukrainian regions to follow suit.”
Goodness! I suppose he’s right. This could be the reason for the rumors of a referendum, but they could only hold it in the small area controlled by Donbass. But I expect he’s right that there will be war; CAN Donbass take over the rest of the two provinces?
This article reminds me of something Pepe Escobar wrote very early on in the conflict:
“Ukraine is an artificial state created by Stalin out of Russian and Polish lands. A good solution would be to return those lands to Russia and Poland, and return western Poland (East Prussia) to Germany.”
This would sure get Germany onboard. Map is at the link:
You don’t amass 90K troops and 100s of tanks, APCs and artillery pieces to look tough. You do that to use them.
They will attack.
Russia, logically, doesn’t want Ukrainian forces on its border, because that means FUKUS will be striding in their midst.
It is therefore that I hope the Russian Air Force will strafe the armored columns, once they are set in motion toward the East, and annihilate them, citing the west’s own battle hymn, “R2P”
The US has been complaining all along that Russia has not been implementing Minsk 2, so it must expect Russia to be the local policeman to enforce it, one might say.
If anyone asks what Russia is doing taking out the Ukrainian heavy weapons just say ‘enforcing Minsk 2’, as the US asked.
Q; If anyone asks what Russia is doing taking out the Ukrainian heavy weapons just say ‘enforcing Minsk 2′, as the US asked.
R; From a legal pov, that argument is both waterproof and airtight. :o)
Blue, I always thought Minsk 2 is brilliant. Not to forget that the UN certified it!
Joaquin Flores more or less said it was all a part of the deal not to disclose to the world about all the NATO troops trapped at Debaltsevo– sooo embarassing to Germany & France.
That was why they all rolled over & gave Russia everything she wanted in Minsk 2. Such a great document: it required everything of the Ukrainians & almost nothing of Donbass. Changed the whole basis of legitimacy to whether or not Minsk 2 was being fulfilled.
Joaquin disclosed this in one of his video interviews; I think with “The Plane Truth”.
I see many by him at
I figured there were things underlying it but can’t say I appreciated the full implications of Minsk II at the time. Maybe Putin and his Russian friends understand the situation better than I do :->
Perhaps BRICS countries should push for UN resolution to “sanction” USA for cluster bombs:
at least it will bring up world wide discussion!!!!
OT here, but the following might be of interest in the ‘bigger’ picture;
Washington’s Financial Currency War on China: The Eclipsing of the US Dollar by the Yuan – Link to Global Research.ca
In a comical twist, China is buying back its own currency [renminbi/yuan] using US dollars [and thus offloading their pile of US Treasury Bonds in the process].
You simply can’t make this stuff up :o)
“Russia is about to embark on an ambitious expansion of its Syrian presence, likely to change the game in the war-torn country. Russia’s small and dated naval repair facility in Tartous will be enlarged, while Jableh near Latakia (Laodicea of old) will become the Russian Air Force base and a full-blown Russian Navy base in the Eastern Mediterranean, beyond the narrow Bosphorus straits. The jihadi multitudes besetting Damascus are likely to be beaten into obedience and compliance, and the government of President Assad relieved from danger and siege. The war with Da’esh (ISIS) is to provide the cover for this operation. This is the first report of this fateful development, based on confidential and usually reliable Russian sources in Moscow.”
Su-34s have been seen and photographed flying in Syria.
Flashpoint: White House Confirms Russian Presence In Syria, Warns It Is “Destabilizing”
Russia’s intention is to de-stabilize the war against Syria and to de-stabilize the ISIS terror army by killing them all.
Very de-stabilizing to the Hegemon, bringing order out of chaos.
After most moves by Olympic professionals, it’s helps the amateur spectators to rewind the video and play it back slowly, with professional commentary explaining what happened. I get the same feel from Ishchenko’s articles, and never more so than with this one.
If his thesis is correct, then he’s done a masterful job of slowing down the almost invisible tactics of Russia and explaining them to us. And personally, I love the story told. But since it’s a new thesis, no one can easily say today whether it’s correct or not.
Like Joaquin Flores – and the lately much discussed Thierry Meyssan – Ishchenko presents his analysis in the manner of advancing a thesis. You have to take all his points to get the full picture of what he’s proposing, but then you have to watch events to see how many points become verified over time.
It requires a similar posture with Syria. Today’s story by Israel Shamir linked by a commenter is a good read (The Die is Cast). Commentators keep jumping ahead of the facts that Russia allows to be on the ground, and some of the facts are simply wrong, but the picture of subtle yet game-changing Russian escalation fits. The question is one of restraint, and how slowly and invisibly Russia needs to act as it increases its presence in Syria. I would guess there is an optimal time when there’s less need for invisibility, and only the Russian planners know that time.
According to Ziad Fadel, at least one Russian Speznaz unit is in Western Syria (Slinfeh):
Speznaz units are not assassination teams like seal teams or delta forces, they are for recon only. They rarely fight and are less than 5 men strong so they cant fight any formations. I don’t think Russia even has anything like the SAS or Seal teams that follow an entirely different chain of command like bond. I think in Chechnya they were used to spot top commanders and just waited until regular troops showed up. We saw them at that school which was hijacked, they were helping get the kids out rather than doing any fighting, why many of them died in the process.
Great Article, thanks Seva for the translation…I love this author…he’s one of my very favorites.
Its great news. !!!
The Russian Federation has no need to absorb the Donbass, although most of the residents would rather that outcome.
Quite the opposite. In last Ukrainian elections that allegedly legitimized the junta in Kiev, Crimea had gone, no-one from the Donbass voted, and the turn-out of voters in several other regions was less than resounding. I think in Odessa oblast there was only 10% turn-out, and in a couple of others only 30%.
A full and free election in all of the Ukraine would see the Poroshenko junta tossed out on their collective arses. This is the result the Russian Federation desires and expects.
The Kiev government is well aware of this, and hence they have no desire for peace. They would much rather have an excuse for martial law and avoid the next election, and martial law will no doubt be ringingly endorsed by freedom- and democracy-loving western governments. Much like in the Palestine (which won’t hold any more elections since HAMAS won the last one).
Folks, there is some very scary stuff going on in the government of the DPR. Denis Pushilin has pulled off some sort of coup, some analysts say. Andrei Purgin and his wife arrested. A pro-Purgin demonstration is scheduled for noon tomorrow. Zakharchenko is not to be seen or heard. Is this a threat to him? No one knows what is going on. The Donetsk News Agency makes it all sound very “official”. Do any of you know the real story? For the news see:
There are four or five short articles giving a bare-bones account of events. For a completely different take see
We need some good analysis. This could be a crisis.
Karl, Fort Russ is putting a good face on it– or at least not a catastrophic one. http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/09/donetsk-republic-will-not-be-undermined.html
Yes, I’m aware of the Fort Russ article. In essence, it does not investigate the event in any depth. A “good face” is not good enough if the DPR is being destroyed by the Kremlin. It is true that Purgin seemed to have been engaged in subsversive activies while in St. Petersburg. But he should not have been dismissed. The problem is that too much power is consolidating in the hands of Denis Pushilin. It is also disconcerting that Zakharchenko has been in the background on this issue. Denis Pushilin was one of the two candidates rumored to be intended for Zakiharchenko’s replacement, when these rumors were floating in June and July. So this is doubly worrisome.
Of course, for people who don’t have much stake in the fate of Donbass, a superficial “good face” on a DPR coup is sufficient to lay their worries to rest. I’ve noticed of late that commenters on this website aren’t much concerned about whether the DPR succeeds anymore. Perhaps that’s because The Saker himself, busy with other topics and perhaps his own live (God bless him), does not devote much space to the DPR, but relies on South Front videos.
I was hoping a post on this website would bring forth some brilliant analyses. Many of you speak Russian and would be able to sort out the incomprehensible underlying politics. Automatic translations of political analyses are generally impossible to interpret, due to the use of colloquialisms and idioms, so Russia non-speakers are at a loss to understand events.
When I say the DPR is threatened, I mean the DPR is threatened. Please don’t dismiss this because you’d rather not be bothered.
Karl, I didn’t mean to be dismissive. I was characterizing Sputnik’s presentation as “putting a good face on it”. It still seems to me like a pretty good description of what they did. Thanks for the quemado link. It’s more than I know about it.
There has been so much drama & death & transfers to Moscow w/in the Donbass leadership. And I was unable to resolve even one of them in my mind. Forget “resolve”; I was unable to construct even a hypothesis as to what happened. So I’ve just given up trying to understand.
I don’t understand why or by whom the two military leaders were killed. I don’t know if the explanation was accurate as to why the car of Zakharchenko’s assistant was blown up. Et cetera
I don’t think we can conclude that anything is being destroyed by the Kremlin. I have to conclude that I don’t know, that I need more data. If I find out more I’ll post it right here.
“The U.S. government is offering families of American service members and diplomatic employees voluntary evacuation from Turkey in a sign of the increased threat caused by the start of U.S. airstrikes against the Islamic State in Syria from a key Turkish air base.
“The Defense Department said about 900 dependents of American troops based at the Incirlik Air Base in southeastern Turkey will be able to fly home on commercial airliners at government expense. The State Department said roughly 100 families members of people stationed at the U.S. Consulate in nearby Adana, Turkey, are eligible to leave.
Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/national-security/article33827388.html#storylink=cpy
Wonder what US is really expecting in Turkey? Civil war? Military coup? Nothing wd surprise me.