Tarik in the Vineyard for the Saker Blog
I’m not sure even a NATO mosquito could cross the Russian border unmolested. And when a bear is lethally threatened, it doesn’t posture; it charges in a mighty roar. So why the Russian ultimatum? There are many plausible motives, many of which are not mutually exclusive. I’d like to focus on an aspect that hasn’t been discussed yet.
The last ten to twenty years could be characterized as a rivalry between China’s desire to re-balance the world’s economy, and the US’s effort to maintain the Dollar’s supremacy. China rose on the back of Western consumerism. There is only that much the West economy can absorb of China’s growing production, and that limit has clearly been exceeded. If China is to pursue its economic development, it needs additional “advanced” export markets to sustain its growing middle class. This is the Chinese necessity underlying the BRI, it cannot grow without the world growing with it.
Until recently it was content with a simple strategy: Enter several disparate countries at a time and start economic projects. Soon enough the US intervened to discipline the offenders; but they cannot strike all at once, choices must be made. Meanwhile, China approaches another bunch with still more economic projects. The US gets slowly overwhelmed, while the projects advance two steps forward, one step backward. On paper, it looks like an expensive proposition, but that is the beauty of it, it’s all paid for with US paper, while gold is accumulated. This entire period is comparable to the early and middle stages of a Go game
There is a point however when all these mini economic hubs must consolidate into a unified stream of connections to realize their full potential. That means no more US military interference and economic/financial disruptions. It seems we are now entering the late stage when “eyes” must be locked and linked.
There is little question the latest Russian move was long prepared and discussed with China. We may assume a common goal, and that none of the recent events are coincidences.
China and Russia favor and promote inter-currency settlement of trades. The Digital Yuan (E-CNY, electronic China Yuan) is designed for this purpose and has just completed successfully its live trials. It is reasonable to expect its official announcement in the near future. There are rumors this will be done during Putin’s visit to the Olympics. Regardless of the exact launch date, preparation must be made against the predictably harshest US resistance to its international deployment. There’s little doubt in my mind that many, if not most of East Asia will readily incorporate the new crypto iteration of the Yuan. However the Kazakhstan events, which were clearly foreseen with great precision, essentially opened up the entire Central Asian economies to its eventual use. With the recent 400bn commitment to Iran and the ongoing Pakistani projects, one may merrily add them to the bunch. India is free to join whenever they deem it in their best interest. This brings us right to the doorsteps of the Middle East.
Let’s now briefly revisit the US’ choices taken during the middle stage game. Since East Asia was growing to displace the US and EU as China’s main trading partner, Washington initiated their “pivot East” strategy to disrupt their momentum. Because of the sorry state of both their economy and military, they had to “delegate” the task of containing Russia on its western border to the EU. The Ukraine, in this context, can be seen as the “pretext” for the EU to activate NATO in Eastern Europe. However, as “pivot East” was floundering, they further needed to draw on their middle east assets (it’s becoming increasingly difficult not to laugh at what I must write). To this effect, they devised the Abraham Accords to similarly delegate the task of containing the “Shiite Axis” to Israel and the Golf States. The first “casualty” of these infamous Accords was probably Pakistan’s definite defection to the BRI, which further precipitated the Afghani debacle. To correct that mistake they then tried another formation with India, Japan, and a few others, followed by AUKUS, which both turned into flops, guided by the same imperative to relieve the strain on their military in an attempt to remain relevant on all fronts.
To control the Middle East, the US needs control of Europe, if only to secure their supply line. And to influence Central Asia they must control the Middle East. Until now Washington was essentially calling the shots, while Russia and China adapted their plans to whatever was thrown their way. By submitting their security demands, Russia is signaling unequivocally it is now taking the initiative. While the reinforcement of the Ukrainian Army was first designed to pressure some Russian reaction so as to increase the European nations’ commitment to toe the anti Russia line, the resulting Russian built-up of forces and large scale exercises have effectively reversed the pressure. The bulk of NATO forces are now bogged down on the eastern European front in a self induced paranoia, severely restricting their possible redeployment elsewhere.
With the Russian ultimatum the US is now basically faced with the following choices. Sign the documents, which by extension will mean the Minsk agreement and opening of NS2, but would free NATO reinforcement to the Middle East, no matter how futile this would ultimately prove. Because if this happens Europe will quickly “organically” link to the Asian network and recover most of its sovereignty from the US. At that moment, the Middle East is lost.
By not signing, the choice becomes loosing the middle East or release the pressure in East Asia, in both cases China wins.
If they don’t reinforce the Middle East, Pakistan is soon to be followed by the entire region. Though there could be some fireworks in the process, once the dust settles the BRI will be staring straight at Africa, throwing its full weight at European and American interests on that continent. If that happens, Europe falls.
Finally if they do “save” the Middle East at the detriment of East Asia, the Asian power house will become such that no one will escape its gravitational pull for long.
It is not very difficult to see, in this context, that whichever region the US decides to forsake, it’s only a matter of time before they lose the rest. Of course, this all assumes they don’t first crumble under the weight of their debts. Will they turn nuts and try blow it all up? I can only attest that the one thing greater than their evil idiocy, is their cowardice.
“Russia plans to engage its nuclear weapons not against those countries where it was launched against Russia, but against the mastermind cities where the decisions were made. To be exact, it is Washington, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and other American cities. Please fully understand, in case American nuclear weapons are launched from, eg. Taiwan, or Poland, the response will hit New York or Washington.” Russian Duma deputy, Yevgeny Fyodorov.
Complete analysis of the situation in so few words. Not a comma that would be superfluous. Precise, concise, comprehensive. In one word: Brilliant!
The same opinion.
Thanksyou very much.
The empire is very desperate in every aspect at this very moment.
Nicely exposed wide view.
Good article. I appreciate the GO analogies. Great game, though I am a wretched player at this point.
” I can only attest that the one thing greater than their evil idiocy, is their cowardice.”
I hope you are right.
It’s always odd to see “China” and “Go” in the same paragraph. “Go” is merely a Japanese name for a Chinese game called weiqi.
In another example, I’ve visited a blog that focuses on China (it wasn’t Godfree Roberts) and the ‘donate’ button said something about affording the (Western-origin) owner’s next bowl of ramen.
Not that I see any harm in of itself, but I’m not sure why Japanese names, even including cognates, are used when discussing the context of China. Certainly names like weiqi and la mian shouldn’t be any more difficult to pronounce than go and ramen, are they? Or is pinyin less familiar to us English-speakers than rômaji?
GO is a great game….for sure!!! Go GO!!!
They do not attack Fully Armed states. They only select defenseless states for their brave armies.
An interesting summation.
It is, indeed, very interesting.
I had wondered why – with all the resources in the Middle East – Biden would have “withdrawn” from Afghanistan and reduced troops in Iraq. This article provides the answer. The US simply doesn’t have the capacity to dominate every area of the world. Now, they are resorting to “picking and choosing” where to allocate military resources.
This is consistent with the every decreasing percentage of world production generated by the US. It is also consistent with increasing productivity of China and Russia. And it is also consistent with the decreasing usefulness and reliability of American military hardware.
This article helps to put pieces together.
The only positive I can see for America would be after the softening/crash of the dollar. The return of American manufacturing and physical production oil, agriculture, etc. But only if the American security apparatus stops calling the shots. Their track record is abysmal.
Despite efforts to prevent a worst-case scenario, the objectives of the US-NATO bloc logically translate to eventual situations of war against Russia (and China). Indeed, forms of warfare are active and intensifying. When limits of restraint are exceeded (as is likely a matter of time), the conflict domain will logically transition to direct kinetic stages of conflict. As escalation and missile warfare are features of war, the potential for a resultant nuclear warfare event should be self-evident (particularly in a world war scenario in a nuclear era).
In a nuclear warfare scenario, to minimize the capacity for hostile powers to launch further (conventional or nuclear) strikes, the targeting of this offensive potential is logically required. This would include all US-NATO-allied bloc military architecture (including for example, in Australia where in addition to planning to increasingly host allied military forces and nuclear capable assets [allied nuclear submarines and strategic aviation], they are seeking to covertly attain allied nuclear device delivery potential (based on the concept of ‘nuclear weapons sharing’ between involved NATO nations, as verified in strategic policy documents).
The hubris of the Australians (strategic policy documents also revealing Australian integration into allied operational plans relating to offensive operations against China and Russia) is the product of their belief there are somehow immune to consequences due to their geographic isolation and capabilities of their allies. This assumption can be disproven. An openly stated policy involving the targeting (in certain warfare scenarios) of hostile military architecture including in Australia would also serve to moderate their behavior (Chinese officials having already stated Australia will be targeted in certain war scenarios).
Importantly, as part of the US-NATO bloc pursuit of nuclear primacy (efforts to overcome mutually assured destruction through close proximity fast first-strike potential with multi-layered multi-phase retaliatory missile interception capabilities) with the global network of military bases and missile architecture to be employed in a first-strike scenario (nuclear primacy requiring a first-strike to be feasible), the similar pursuit of nuclear primacy by Russia and China (involving the combined potential of their military/strategic forces) would be prudent and should be a matter of priority (recognizing the increasing probability of a nuclear warfare event occurring.
Never underestimate countries vital interconnection and telecom infrastucture vulnerability. In case of a hot war, the first hits will be on any interconnection infrastructure, cutting of the countries from the ability to easily communicate with other countries. As almost all communication internationally is cable bound, destroying the landing sites of any sea cable in Australia will disconnect them from it world. The few satellite base stations are also known, and will be hit as well, which keeps the country in the dark about any worldwide development. Imagine a well connected nation losing its information stream. This applies for any other first world country, as there are no plans, how to overcome this issue.
Don’t worry too much about Australasia mate. We’ve always been mushrooms (kept in the dark and fed on bullshit)
But this article is a real ripper, isn’t she.
I second that!
I third that
Well said. Agree.
While the prevention of war remains a priority, if it is imposed it is self-evident those prepared for all scenarios will be better placed than those inadequately prepared. This is particularly important if the many globally expanding wars of the US-NATO-allied bloc (applied in a sequential format that have progressed to forms of warfare against Russia, China, Iran, the DPRK, etc.), results in a world war scenario.
Efforts to contain/restrict conflicts to the hybrid/unconventional/proxy warfare and conventional warfare domains will continue however the intensifying conflict domains indicate escalation is likely. All involved parties are clearly preparing for more profound stages of conflict (the mobilization of military forces also serving as deterrence). US-NATO-allied bloc objectives relating to the expansion of NATO military architecture, regime change in Russia, degrading the Russian economy/economic warfare, the partition of Russia, nuclear primacy (the development of offensive/ABM US-NATO missile capabilities in Eastern Europe ensuring another eventual missile crisis), intensifying offensive military operations against Russian speaking regions, etc. translate to increasingly probable (arguably almost inevitable) war scenarios. Similarly, US-DPP moves to develop Taiwan as an integrated offensive military-missile platform targeting China are moves towards the enforcement of the Anti-Secession Law.
Importantly, forms of warfare are active an intensifying. The repetition of former behaviors that resulted in situations of world war indicate the many globally expanding wars of the US-NATO-allied bloc are likely in time to become recognised as one.
– “Speaking to a group of college students on 2 April, 2003, former CIA Director Woolsey revealed, “…the United States is engaged in World War IV, and that it could continue for years.” Woolsey described the Cold War as the third world war. He then said “This fourth world war, I think, will last considerably longer than either World Wars I or II did for us. Hopefully not the full four-plus decades of the Cold War.” (Wikipedia: R. James Woolsey, Jr., Director of Central Intelligence , February 5, 1993 – January 10, 1995)
– “Russia does not want war and does not intend to start a war. But today, Russia can see that the explosion of a global war is almost unavoidable and is prepared and will continue preparing. Russia does not want a war but is not afraid of a war. Those who get Russia involved in this process will learn the real meaning of pain”.” [Vladimir Putin] (At the Threshold of a Third World War, Southfront, 12/09/2016),
It is likely the (Anglo-Zionist) US-NATO-Israel-allied bloc pursuit of world domination (‘full-spectrum dominance’) will end in an event that will see them have neither power nor profit.
Many from the Western bloc do not and will not understand the horror of war until they experience it. It is likely in time they will understand.
Agreed. The notion expressed in the original piece that the US just resigns itself to failure and fades away is unrealistic, or at the very least not certain. Historically the outcome of circumstances like the present is major war. Empires rarely die quietly. They go either piecemeal or all at once, violently. The British went piecemeal. But Britain was always too small to hold onto their Empire. The US is a superpower, not just an imperial power like the European colonial powers. As long as it has its navy and air force (another important distinction from Britain), it will continue to try to push its power everywhere until forcibly restrained.
The British Empire blended with the US so in a sense it did not end – still the same Anglo/Vatican civilization values. Through accidents of history they ascended to an unsustainable power and status. The center of human civilization was and will remain in Asia which includes Russia. This unfortunate interlude in history will end soon enough.
Signing a pan SCO / Eurasian security pact and the launch of the digital trade currency backed by gold, Xi and Putin told the press conference after the opening ceremony of the winter Olympics that the new price of gold in US$ is 10,000
Does that come from your brain threads or is that something real where you can read about it. Probably from your brain.
One does not need a source but in fact it can be deduced from a brain with an understanding of economics, especially a general theory of money. The moment when a currency based on gold is the basis of commerce the debt backed currencies of the West will experience hyper inflation and the price of gold will go through the roof.
Please, could you provide a link?
Thanks for this holistic perspective.
We are indeed living in fascinating times: the world is proving to be far too large for the Empire of 15% of humanity to swallow it whole. Year of the tiger!
If Russia does not annihilate the real enemy and plotter England, then Russia is doomed to face one plot after another to break Russia into slavery.do not belive it? Could you belive that 40 years ago a 3rd rate nation like England could threaten and openly plot against Russia with imputiny?
Not so much England but The City of London
I Agree that it makes no sense to punish only one tenticle of the New World Borg and let the others continue with no pause. The US has been set up as the boogy man while in truth there are at least 4 seats of power: London, Brussels, Tel Aviv and DC. All of them need to be cut off and killed.
I think your list should also include the (always very covert) presence of the Vatican.
I concur, as evil as the rest of the Borg.
I´m agree also
Five seats including the Vatican and it is only Western powers. Other centers of power include Moscow, Beijing and New Delhi and other centers as well. The Western centers are on a downward trajectory. Give it time.
Won’t do any good.
You’re right that origin of evil is England, but it spread like parasite infection, globaly. Mainly into US. None of affected populations are happy with their presence, including English one.
English people are seen as most polite, smart nation all over the Europe. Unlike their posh elite. The worst opinion on English elite can be heard in the streets of London. In the language barely understandable, that I wouldn’t want to cite on polite forum like this one.
To cure world from cancer-like disease, much more must be done than simple cutting-off visible part of tumor.
As elite consumes orders of magnitude more resources than normal people, denying access to it is the best strategy. “Loss of China” made them scream lifetime ago. After recent Afghanistan and Kazakhstan debacles, inevitable loss of whole Asia must be debilitating shock. Middle-east is next stop. When enough exploited countries cease to pay tribute, cost of maintenance of needy elite will become heavy burden on its own “subjects”.
Only then Anglo-Saxons will decide to do something about it, like many nations did before.
The sad part is, that England doesn’t realize yet that it is no real power anymore, and their ‘visions’ of world domination are based on ideas that were relevant some 130 years ago, but now not so much anymore.
In case of ‘precise bombing’ of people who are pulling the strings, I would suggest to start with the City of London (that’s not ‘London’, nor England), and some bunkers in the deep south of Chile, Argentine, and New Zealand.
Btw, thanks Tarik, that was a nice treat in giving an overview of things.
“I would suggest to start with the City of London…”
One important addition to your list:
Sinking certain superyachts would silence wardrums quicker than destroying carrier groups.
ha ha! good one.
>…In case of ‘precise bombing’ of people who are pulling the strings, I would suggest to start with the City of London (that’s not ‘London’, nor England), and some bunkers in the deep south of Chile, Argentine, and New Zealand. …<
It´s no longer just a few super-rich / powerful "string pullers" who are preparing their own personal safe havens in the South. Down here in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, there are MANY ex-pats from the USA who are preparing our individual / family off-grid "bolt holes" for when the stuff hits the fan Up North. Hopefully, we are small enough not to appear on anybody´s international target list … just dealing with the local "bandidos" is enough to fill our worry quota.
Por um acaso seria a região mais Sul de MG (entre Três Corações e Resende? Apenas quero confirmar uma hipótese..
By chance would be the southernmost region of MG (between Três Corações and Resende? I just want to confirm a hypothesis.
England has had a thing about Russia for at least 200 yrs. The heirachy just can’t seem to help themselves…
There was a very interesting period in history – in around 1904-5, a group of Japanese fishermen were in a trawler somewhere in the North Sea when the Russians attacked them. The British, acting as the global police, demanded that Russia pay compensation to the widows. The Russians at first refused…and then the British mobilised every single vessel in their Fleet and sailed towards Russian ports. I read a list of the ships that Britain had then…quite an impressive array of firepower…Russia was woefully ill-prepared for any major conflict and had to back down.
Today the main ‘muscle’ of Britain is in the financial arena, not the military, but this is an illusion. After communications – both cable and satellite, are cut, only military assets count…and Russia is extremely well positioned today.
Not only is the U$A sending more weapons to Ukraine…. They’re being sent from Delaware.
Surely that’s Joe extending a middle finger to Putin.
The Voice of America. @VOANews
U.S. airmen prepare ammunition, weapons and other equipment for shipment to Ukraine at Dover Air Force Base, in Delaware. [vid]
Blinken Authorizes Baltic Countries to Send US Weapons to Ukraine
And they will ship the dead soldiers back to Bidet through the same base.
Nicely argued, and I would tend to agree with the authors summary of events.
One thing that people seldom realize is that unrestained capitalism by its nature demands constant growth. The Earth is a closed loop system with limited resources. The counter argument used by capitalist proponents is that science and technology provides opportunities to market new products and overcome the market cap. The reality is that science and technology also has limits.
Sorry, “The Earth is a closed loop system with limited resources” is a false statement. The earth is a perpetual open loop system and there are no limits to growth except in the IQ.
Simplistic. Not realistic.
Seriously? Open Loop System: a control system in which an input alters the output, but the output has no feedback loop and therefore no effect on the input.
Closed Loop: a recursive concept, process, or system in which there is no beginning or end point, but rather the products of one phase become the materials for the next, whose products themselves are the materials for the original phase.
Try reading up on the Isle Royalle study – all lands have a carrying capacity. The planet has a limit to its’ capacity to cleanse water, provide abiotic oil, refresh oxygen, provide iron, etc. All ecosystems have limits, all markets have growth limiting capacity.
Capitalism has a cancer-like growth: knowing no boundaries.
But this started long ago when humans invented the prairie by burning forests to get more cattle…
We have a long way to go before we balance our way of life within a limited planet …
Surely the US made morally disastrous Imperialist decision. Truly a political failure of civilizational scale with Bill Clinton post cold War orientation. Making the bed of all what came after.
But what is inexcusable is the compounded corrupt and bankrupt operational thinking of the POTUS coming next… And at the end of the Day the strategic self defeat of the collective West.
Ultimately ending up in woke and so called western White people self destruction.
Bill Clinton,, Eltsin or Bush Jr made a good matching in same bankrupt category.
Eltsin at least left quickly. Whereas the banckrupt western oligarchy is still in power.
What a catastrophy of epic proportion.
Excellent analysis. Thank you, Tarik, for such clear and advanced thinking.
In my opinion, Russia should abandon NS2 for now. Let the Europeans freeze and pay exorbitant prices for American LNG for a few years. Once the world is a bit more “re-balanced”, NS2 can be reactivated but with settlement in rubles – not dollars or Euros.
The moment of the multi-polar world is upon us!
“In my opinion, Russia should abandon NS2 for now.”
Why abandon? Sell it to US.
Collect more money for gas than Germany has to pay. Let US resell it to EU muppets at the price of US LNG.
No need to go back and forth across Atlantic.
Definitely some logic to your suggestion. Rather than pitting Europe against the US as the Americans see it, Russia sign long-term gas contracts to US, pitting them against Europe.
Would serve the European ingrates right and placate to an extent the Warmongers doing BankCorp’s/MIC’s bidding in the US Congress. This in turn for a full implementation of the Agreement (I know) regarding Russia’s Security Concerns.
Think of the Butt-hurt colostomy bagged EU condemnation of betrayal.
Still, wishful thinking, as The Big Picture for the US is $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Hegemony which would be a Red Line for China & Russia.
Considering that, I think Putin would know better than to submit to the avaricious desires of the non-agreement-capable U$A.
The knuckle head in chief publically says he wont send troops to fight in Ukraine. But he also knows that by treaty should war break out, he is obligated by law to send troops, fine, this is typical in your face political lying.
Now we suddenly have a $50,000 bonus for military recruits signing up for 6 years, do you like to play by the #’s?.
Now here’s the rub, the Russians want a friendly gvt in Kiev to avoid war, nato must have political control for its own ideological reasons so this is the proverbial rock and hard place for Ukraine right now.
Do you sign up for 6 years and hope you dont go to war, or hold back and hope you are not part of a draft if the stuff gets real.
Oh the web we weave, when we FIRST practice to deceive.
“Now we suddenly have a $50,000 bonus for military recruits signing up for 6 years”
Do recruits get $$’$ upfront, or posthumously?
I was trying to think of all the legal reasons for getting the money even after you died in battle, kids maybe?
No the family gets a $100K death “bonus” for short term fulfillment of the abruptly discontinued 6 year contract. Lol
“Do recruits get $$’$ upfront, or posthumously?”
Neither, it’s paid pro-rata during the course of their contract (if they are actually eligible for it).
And if you croak before the 6 years is up (think about the injections here, as well as foreign deployment) then you failed to satisfy the terms of your contract. Think about that.
Importantly, it’s also taxed, so the poor stooges will ultimately get way less than what they expected even if they manage to survive for 6 years (and whatever other commitments they get railroaded into once the system has them by the balls).
Even with $50K will any new recruits want to be vaccinated and will those already enlisted vaccinated troops be able to fight ? Effected & dying of blot clots, heart problems and brain seizures – I doubt it.
And how many Americans would support the US Govt these days or want to go fight Russia – few to none.
There is no trust in the US Govt anymore and Democrat voters don’t volunteers for wars.
Its been said Biden hopes to unite Americans over this Russia-Ukraine crisis to win the 2022 elections – that is impossible given he and his criminal govt since 2018 has divided the country so much. Nor would people trust a Republican Administration, not even Trump, following his recent vax comments.
They dont care about what goes on half way round the world or want to pander to EU interests like NATO.
The US I fear is finished.
As is the EU and the UK is also close to going down
Arrest the traitors now !
And if I were in the US I would only want to sign up to fight the US Govt and removed those in Washington DC from office – not some distance irrelevant foreign conflict.
Perhaps De Santis’s (Florida Gov) idea of re-establishing State Militias is a great idea ?
All anti-Biden States should do it I think.
I dunno, I can envisage Chucky Schumer, Nancy Pelosi & Marco Rubio in Full Combat Gear on the Donbas Front Line digging trenches . . . .. . . . and graves.
Yes, they may well be that stupid.
Nancy would need a bottle of wine & pill nearby and Chuck a underage girl to do it keep them going.
Tarik, I love your prose. You start off with NATO mosquitoes at risk of being molested by polite Russians. Is it needed – NATOistan is already busy at self-molestation!
I am not so sure we can assume the total “… sorry state of .. [of the US] military [having] to “delegate” the task of containing Russia on its western border to the EU … [and] the Abraham Accords to similarly delegate the task of containing the “Shiite Axis” to Israel and the Golf States”
Even during marked decline, aspects of the US military remain quite formidable; Russia-China-Iran would not otherwise be taking painstaking small steps.
There was a clear change in policy since early 2000s’ Rumsfeld-Cebrowski, of focus on mercenaries, NGOs and other public-private cooperations for Chaos-purposes. At the same, key arms of US military such as SF were expanded and went dark. I think Meyssan said there were 100,000+ Special Forces off books. Not to mention allied French and other Foreign Legionnaires. As one of the SF generals boasted during Obama years, they were active in 100+ nations.. Those forces remain on standby and a threat – to both non-Powers and even hybrid-war risk inside the territories of Powers.
I enjoyed this gem: “The bulk of NATO forces are now bogged down on the eastern European front in a self induced paranoia, severely restricting their possible redeployment elsewhere.” This is true, and a nice way to keep NATO busy. Early fruits of the new Russian tension-strategy? They already ruined Ukraine, why not lie in that bed for a while, while their fate is decided? And their potential to aid Empire elsewhere is circumscribed.
You identified one of the key conundrums of the Empire – it is so overextended, it has to make bitter choices of which region to forsake. IMO it will not abandon West Asia. Its entire strategy of last generations was to build up Occupied Palestine (the Holy Land), even at expense of West.. Eschatologically, the Parasite needs to maintain that base no matter what. We are in the end-game of messianic [woke] Crusades 2. Its base is being moved from London or Geneva to Jerusalem.. This makes their next moves somewhat understandable. Unfortunately secular and too rational Russian Duma deputies are focused on the sock-puppets, and not on the decider deranged Parasite.
If I was the Ukranians I would be most cautious about losing more territory in the event of hostilities. The province of Kharkov (which borders Russia to the north and the “breakaway” provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk to the east) is/was over 50% ethnic Russians and voted for the deposed russian speaking president who was disposed of by the “newland” inspired revolution. The capital city with the same name had well over a million population and its revolt was put down by the Kiev government.
This 100k ‘ghost’ Special Forces Army, where were they when The Taliban took Kabul, The Colour Revolution in Kazakhstan or worse still when Celine Dion and Bryan Adams (God Help Us ) invaded Caesars Palace?
No, I largely believe this 100k ghost Force is made up of a Lee Marvin type ensemble of degenerates, pikers, drug runners, child-traffickers, organ shippers and Mossad. Many lying in sandy shallow graves and buried in tunnels in places like Idlib, Aleppo and Kirkuk.
“This 100k ‘ghost’ Special Forces Army, where were they when The Taliban took Kabul”
I wonder when they will change this worn-out script. Never?!?
They create those movies for a reason, to make you believe it couldnt happen.
I suppose they will try and recruit the 2020 rioters for this job ?
The Portland, Kenosha, BLM ones etc…
Based on observing the antics of NATO within the Baltic States, the vandals, drunks, thieves, rapists, oops i mean NATO sailors and soldiers, have been very active in upsetting the locals…so their potential performance in a real hot war has to be in doubt. Special Forces on the other hand, even if small in numbers, get better pay, are more disciplined and have been extremely effective as snipers. A figure of 100,000 operating and dispersed in 100 countries, however is not quite the same threat as the psychopath David Cameron boasting that he could drum up “the support of 70,000 freedom-fighters against the Butcher of Damascus”
“By submitting their security demands, Russia is signaling unequivocally it is now taking the initiative.”
Yes. This aligns with my own thoughts. When Russia declared its ‘ultimatum’, existing conditions were already in a state of violation. Witness Kazakhstan. Therefore, Russia had no choice but to act or face global humiliation by failing to live up to its own decree. Russia could not just sit passively knowing another ‘color revolution’ was being hatched. This is why I believe that the Russian offensive began in Kazakhstan. Russian intel succeeded in exposing the Western-backed coup attempt and forced it to be prematurely executed. Everything was already in place to crush the uprising quickly and efficiently.
It is certain Russia is not passively waiting for what comes next with regard to Western intentions for Ukraine. I’m wagering that there is an active Russian initiative to solve the Ukrainian problem, but not one that will entail tank battles on the steppes. Rather, it will be a lesson in Russian-style hybrid warfare. Maybe not even a shot will need to be fired, or perhaps violence will be limited to one mass casualty event amongst Western PMC’s or UkroNazis. It is probable that the puppet regime in Kiev has only a few weeks left.
How far will the US go to resurrect their former position as BIG DADDY DAYCARE nannying the Planet like Mary Poppins with a surface to air missile in her hand and not an umbrella, singing not a spoonful of sugar lets the medicine go down but a spoonful of depleted uranium?
Can they in fact halt/reverse the demise/slide of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Hegemony?
Sociopaths are not known for their reasoned critical thinking.
What’s far more egregiously unpalatable for me is that our so-called European Leaders (many unelected, many placed their by vested interests, namely the Bankers & Corporations to represent their interests, not The Peoples, The Taxpayers ) are culpable in following them blindly into the abyss.at any cost.
No one wants to win the race when their is a cliff at the end of it.
By not signing, the choice becomes loosing the middle East or release the pressure in East Asia, in both cases China wins.
If Uncle Scam would drop its zero-sum mentality then all parties can win. (Rhetorical question, I know…)
That said, since this essay’s theme is economic I would like, during Vladimir Putin’s pre-Olympic summit in Beijing to announce:
*Activation/harmonisation of CIPS and SPFS, i.e. neutralisation of any SWIFT expulsion
*All trade conducted in renminbi/yuan or roubles
*Announcement of another major trade deal (e.g. Power of Siberia 2) in yuan & roubles (forget US dollars)
*Much larger currency swap agreement
Tarif, thanks for the wide view of the US dilemma vis a vis the present geopolitical conflicts. For a lay person, this is a difficult text to follow.
The US Empire is obviously overextended; but, it is losing the conflicts in all of the fronts where they instigated them. This can only mean the end of the road for the US.
Will they resort to a nuclear war even knowing that this will only result in the demise of most of the planet, including themselves? This is the scariest question of our time.
The scariest question for the world is if there is going to be an Nuclear civil war in the US.
Many Thanks Tarik, brief and direct to the T. Some of us understood the wisdom, don’t bite more than you can chew. I believe at one point the world was happy or content with the American misleadership and the dollar trade currency, but that ship has sailed and dumped fuel to go faster. Now there is no fuel left to return and they don’t know what to do in uncharted waters. They have to face the unhappy passengers all alone.
Not criticizing but how I feel.
“China rose on the back of Western consumerism”.
I would put it. China rose much faster on the greed of Western shark companies.
I would include – China rose much faster thanks to the vast, overseas Chinese communities present all over Asia. Since the domestic Chinese public was huge, honest and hard working, success came easily to both.
On the surface, a complicated mess. Public rebuffs, hidden curtain, masks off, (yes, pun intended; see; Party Gate for reference) negotiations. Many see 3d weiqi with a side order of judo, wishing for a sprinkle of MMA.
It may be simpler than that, on the one side, the Zionist controlled ‘west’, out of real imperial options, other than all out war, are insisting on playing their game, Blind Man’s Bluff, while the other side has adopted a high bred version of Red Rover, Red Rover……..
Regarding the Go analogy, a perfectly played game will result in a 0.5 victory for either player. Apply that analogy to geopolitics and it is a very close affair. Mistakes are usually harshly punished, leading to resignation.
The authors predictions are correct, the US and EU must now purge itself at warp speed of the rot and vermin running things there – Biden/Democrats/RINOS, BoJo, Macron and the rest in the EU.
And they must be brought to justice for all their crimes over the past few decades plus their backers like Soros. The entire criminal networks there must be removed.
Otherwise they are doomed.
Russia’s superiority in every expression of military power is unquestionable, and whoever starts a war is already defeated. But there is this astonishment of the stupidity of the EU and the USA, with the fact that the EU is a brutal servant of the lies of the USA. Here is the essence of the terrible evil propaganda served by the West, and after the help of evil US propaganda, it will cut the throat of the West, in another it will be totally defeated in Russia, each outcome establishes a distorted human nature and a form of political madness. is utterly defeated, and astonished at the belief in Lies and Hypocrisy that the West believes. In essence, this is from the beginning of the emergence of Western civilization, after the fall of the Roman Empire, which was inherited by the Holy Roman Empire, which is not Roman and even less holy. It is the civilization of Lies-Constantine’s Gift that is a fraud, then the Crusades, Corruption, and Colonialism, and then Globalism, all of which is an overture to its Armageddon, or the brutal service of the Apocalypse from the very beginning. And that’s the inevitable end of a horrible Lie and Hypocrisy, so discard what you think you know about history, and shut down approved textbooks, turn off horrible corporate media, and don’t trust your governments.
See attached, written from the perspective of the Chairman of the Board and CEO of Genoil. Genoil has made an offer to build a pipeline between Russia and China.
The US summarised:
ISS crews train in the US and Russia to understand the US and Russian parts of the station, if only for emergency evacuation procedures. The US has just cancelled the visa of a Russian cosmonaut due to visit the US for his USS-ISS training sessions.
How totally pathetic and spiteful.
I try to follow Saker’s rules but I am so frustrated but I am going to bottom line this.
1. Russia (not just Putin) is insisting in ‘writing’ only because the U.S. pinky swear of 1991 was worthless and they denied it. If we go to war, Russia being all prim and proper wants this to be on record. ‘We got this on record!’
2. Russia made their demands clear, even if the U.S. denied it. Do not use NATO membership as an excuse to install U.S. tactical / nuclear missiles. If you do we will destroy them.
Hard stop. Period end.
I can see that happening more and more every day!
“When the enemy expand, we contract, when the enemy contracts, we expand.”
Sun Tzu, Art of War
…”There is little question the latest Russian move was long prepared and discussed with China. We may assume a common goal, and that none of the recent events are coincidences…”
No question this new challenge to the empire and its minions has been in the work for many years, waiting for the proper timing to launch it.
– Europe is facing a deep energy crisis, no solution in sight.
– The US is cracking at the seams, with an ever-growing polarized society at the brink of a civil war.
– Russia/China/Iran have created a strategic triangulation with massive projects and billions of people in between.
– Russia/China/Iran are challenging the empire’s Full Spectrum Dominance in their own backyard (Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua), openly supporting the Axis of Resistance in the M.E. (Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Palestine), and spreading their influence in African/Asian countries.
– NS2 is finished, Eurostan can take it or leave it, it is their choice to freeze their people to death, or kill them otherwise, as they are unable to pay skyrocketing energy bills.
– Minsk II Protocols are now being used by the Ukronazis at the trenches as toilette paper.
– US/Eurostan need a war for many reasons, among them to quell the resistance of their populations to the rules enacted to curb the pandemic. A war against Russia will galvanize their people around “patriotism” and the defense of “Western values,” whatever that means.
Russia’s deployment at the border with 404 is a pre-emptive move, based on deep intel about the US/NATO plans to use 404 as a launchpad for a provocation/a false flag, or both, or a potential invasion of LDNR. The decision for this deployment, however, was not a reaction, it has been in the works for long time, part of Russia’s strategic planning. Russia’s move caught the US/NATO by surprise, not expecting to face the Russians ready for battle, moreover, taking back the initiative in political diplomacy, placing the expansion of NATO center stage as the creators of tensions between Russia and US/Eurostan.
It is absolutely evident, as I was reading Russian news this morning, 404 will launch a provocation soon enough. Dates could be while Putin visits China on Feb. 4, as it happened before.
The US/NATO are now “papering the file” with fake news and misinformation, their agit-prop departments in full swing 24/7 to keep the “Russian threat” hot, and the presstitute MSM busy beaming the lies to the four winds, they cannot let the hysteria go cold. La Zakharova denounced US/NATO “is trying to prepare the information space for a number of major provocations…For the collective West, for NATO, for the Anglo-Saxons, it is extremely important to create an information field, without it they cannot act,” Zakharova said on The Air of Russia 1.
US kicked off with a bulleting on Russia’s policy toward Ukraine released on the eve of the last Blinken-Lavrov meeting, which la Zakharova called “an open provocation.” UK followed with a dossier accusing Russia (again) of preparing a coup d’état against clown Ze, a takeover of the country with some pro-Russian Ukrainians. The Ukronazis are stirring up hysteria to the highest level with “…scenarios of “invasion” – one is worse and more fantastic than the other.”
In the meantime, 404 is taking full advantage of the hysteria, fattening their bank accounts and getting weapons galore from all sources, the 3B are now delivering Stingers, the US is moving tanks to the Romanian border with Ukraine, besides delivering more “non-lethal” weapons by the ton, UK delivered anti-tank weapons, and Banderastan’s FM threatened Germany “…the citizens of the country for decades will remember the refusal of Germany to supply weapons.” That besides forcing the resignation of the German navy chief-of-staff for stating a truth as big as Siberia: Crimea will never go back to Ukraine.
On the Russian side, Konstantin Gavrilov, head of the Russian delegation at the talks in Vienna stated “…Moscow will not tolerate provocations in the Donbass.”
And what can we expect from Blinken “written response”? More of the same?
The signs are clear, the stage is set.
War is coming.
PS: Thanks, Tariq, for the birdview of the landscape, and the Go lessons.
Thanks for the news updates. I agree that a Ukraine-Russia war is, as The Saker said, “(almost) inevitable”. There has been zero let-up in the CIA/neocon pressure and zero agreement by the US with Russia’s treaty proposals. But people like Ray McGovern are claiming “progress” and “no war in Ukraine” just because Blinken says “maybe we’ll get back to you next week.”
The False Russian Collusion the DNC drummed up that was Cold War Democrat propaganda that conveniently was used to stop their lesser greater enemy of Trump is not well received by a large bandwidth of a middle America. Civil War is the preminent threat in the US by radical Marxist and those who desite to restore Constitutionality. Being the Democrats are in the White House and they love the RussianCold War stigma this could get ugly.
“…A war against Russia will galvanize their people around “patriotism” and the defense of “Western values,” whatever that means…”
Sorry, no it won’t. Unless you have a very restricted idea of who ‘their people’ are.
Excellent analysis; I echo what others have already said.
I would add, that (IMHO) part of the strategy is for Russia (in particular) to hit militarily with extreme prejudice anyone who steps over a line. In fact with such force that no one will dare do it again.
The conventional Russian navy and Air Force have theoretically and practically defeated all of the worlds conventional Navy’s COMBINED. Everyone knows.
It is so overextended that in order not to lose control it has had to release something biological as a form of control both internally and of the ‘allied’ countries.
And the most frightening question of our time, I fear, is not the use of nuclear warfare but biological warfare itself.
Thanks Tarif, always a pleasure to read you.
There seems to be a Normandy 4 meeting Tues in Paris….Russian Chief Negotiator present….wonder if could make a difference….Baerbock with Lavrov said it was still “supported”……..hmmm
Some excellent work being done by Iran and Venezuela.
“Pin 5 fleas with five fingers” – Chinese Saying.
Please use one name at this site and not multiples. Mod.
Thanks for the interesting link, have saved this and will read later.. Thanks also to Tarik for the very commendable read!
I concur, bravo!
Don’t know if true or not, second time I have come across this story. S**t could start getting real. Can anybody confirm this?
So, the bottom line of this piece: The US wants to fight China, so it let NATO attack Russia, but because NATO attacks Russia, it can’t attack the Middle East, so there will be no conflict in Ukraine because the US has to agree to Russia’s terms.
Uhm, no. But this whole thing is so convoluted and without a single reference to support the argument that I can’t be bothered to go through it. But the main thrust appears to be saying that there can’t be any conflict in Ukraine – that is to say, this appears to be the main point the author wishes to make.
The one thing I will say is that the CIA and the neocons want China, Russia, Iran put down and the EU under their heel. And they are quite capable of multi-tasking.
I might also point out that there’s hardly been a peep out of Washington about China and Taiwan in three months. And the Iran talks are being dragged out to their inevitable failure after which, what? What it has been is “Ukraine/Russia, 24 x7”. And the US has clearly been leading that charge, with the EU massively wavering due to the obvious economic impact of imposing “massive sanctions” on Russia which will wreck the EU economy (and possibly the US economy, which is another reason the Pollyannas cite which allegedly means there will be no conflict in Ukraine.) So I see no evidence of “the US letting NATO contain Russia” – whatever “containing Russia” even means (it is US strategic weapons in eastern Europe, without which NATO has zero chance of confronting Russia.)
Of course, I agree with the overall thrust of the piece: the US is losing on all fronts. My prediction is more along these lines:
1) There will be a Ukraine-Russia conflict, which Russia will win handily and take Ukraine off the board. The CIA and the neocons will gleefully paint Russia as the aggressor, which everyone will believe, the EU will cancel NS2 and go into economy decline. Russia will begin its “military-technical” measures and we’ll be in Cold War 2.0. Where it goes from there is unknown to anyone. Presumably the US will begin reinforcing its forces in Europe. What Russia does about that is unclear but will probably make the entire situation even more dangerous. That whole situation likely ends in WWIII, but it might take decades – or not.
2) The JCPOA talks will fail, and the US will return to continuing sanctions and threatening Iran with war. But until Israel and the US can figure out what to do about Hezbollah in Lebanon, there will be no war. If there is, the US will so bogged down in Iran for the next decade or two that it will be unable to do much of anything else anywhere else because Iran will never surrender and can’t be defeated short of nuking Tehran.
3) The US “pivot to China” doesn’t actually exist. Whether the US will provoke China into retaking Taiwan by force is unclear. Given the complete incompetence with which the US is responding to Russia’s concerns, I suspect a repeat of that vis-a-vis China and Taiwan is likely. Which means Taiwan will receive serious amounts of US weapons (always a given for the US due to the MIC) and be encouraged to declare independence. That will likely result in a Chinese attack, which the US will half-heartedly oppose and be thoroughly defeated. Whether that leads to WWIII is unclear, but the risk is very high.
In short, I don’t see anything good on the horizon for years to come, and the risk of WWIII in at least two areas of the world is extremely high. The notion that the US will simply back down and fade away I think is highly speculative. The US is occupied by and run by people with no comprehension of history, the world, war or pretty much anything else. They are stupid, ignorant, jingoistic, malicious and fearful. That is a lousy combination.
Bottom line: If you live in the Northern Hemisphere, arrange for a one-way ticket to the Southern Hemisphere and be on a plane the minute the West and either China or Russia start shooting at each other in any serious way.
Based on what you said above, I guess I may be one of the Pollyanas you cited. I, however, refuse to embark in rabidly aggressive, warring lines of thought predicting a major war is coming soon out of the current Ukraine problem.
Sure, there is a lot of loud barking coming out from the West, but it seems a lot of it is just that, barking. It may very well lead low-IQ or deranged people into thinking they have their backs covered, pushing them to unwise acts of aggression against Russia, but it is very unlikely to lead to a major war. It may not even lead to a local, limited war, with the problem taken care, at least for some years, by an internal political process. For that to happen, it may be enough the loud barking stops. I will speculate here, but I find last friday’s meeting between Lavrov and Blinken to be intriguing. Would there be a need for an in-person meeting in order for Blinken to say it will take one more week to give the written responses? Wouldn’t it be easier to just call Lavrov to say that and schedule a meeting for a week later? This would be the expected way even if the written responses turn out to be negative. It seems to me there were a lot more discussed in this meeting than what was floated publicly, especially regarding possible ways out of this imbroglio in Ukraine. The public expressions were only for face saving. We’ll see.
I don’t like assuming people like Blinken, Nuland, Stolstensberger, Borrel, etc have more power than they really have. At the end, they are subordinated to their governments, and I seriously doubt the US government or any other from the West is minimally interested in sending troops to a war in Ukraine, no matter the rhetoric coming from those imbeciles.
The Taiwan case may be a little more problematic since in this case China has already said that it is only a matter of time before the island is reunited to the mainland, either by force or otherwise. Even then, however, I doubt a major war will come out of it.
In essence, in my opinion, WWIII is actually unlikely in the near future.
I must say, though, that although I’m optimistic in the near future about a major war not happening, I’m rather pessimistic on the long run (say, within the next 75 years). In my opinion, more and more people all around the world will detach them, by fear or any other reason, from reality, spending more time virtually, either in “metaverses” or in virtual online communities. While there, they will probably get used to “simulations”, virtual events or online cheap talk, and lose sight how ugly reality can be if cooperation and peace are not actively sought after. Once they start thinking their virtual “experiences” can be taken to the real world, we’ll be in serious trouble…
” I seriously doubt the US government or any other from the West is minimally interested in sending troops to a war in Ukraine, no matter the rhetoric coming from those imbeciles.”
The problem is that the CIA and the neocons don’t necessarily expect the US to do so. What they are hoping for is simply a war between Ukraine and Russia, preferably one in which Ukraine gets squashed. This has many benefits for them: they get to demonize Russia some more, drag the EU back into compliance, and get rid of Ukraine which is of no further value to them since their 2014 plot to seize the Russian naval base went to nothing.
“The problem is that the CIA and the neocons don’t necessarily expect the US to do so”
Yes, I understand that, and I agree they will try their best to foment a war. It’s just that I think we’d have to be very unlucky for that to degenerate into a major war.
But we’ll see. For obvious reasons, I’m hoping I’m the one who gets to be right… :-D
As so many have said here, brilliant analysis. Why would China not pursue its natural economic interests just because Washington objects? Washington only has itself to blame for creating the Chinese industrial juggernaut in the first place. Now it should dry up and blow away because the Americans have planted the seeds and cultivated the seedlings of their own inevitable demise? Hardly.
No one should be surprised the Chinese would first work out an elaborate alliance with Russia (including its own extensive simulacrum of an “empire” from the Far East to Europe’s front door–commercial rather than military) and then tell Washington to “kiss off” at the appropriate occasion. Washington can either stew about it or become the biggest sore losers in history and destroy all of civilisation with its fading military might. In either case, no one else, now or in the history books, is going to feel sorry for them or give them a pass for acting murderously reprehensible.
I find it almost ironically humorous (except for all the lives to be potentially lost) that Washington and its poodle in London are presently pissing and moaning about an alleged coup that Moscow has planned to occur in Kiev, quite likely obviating any need whatsoever for a single Russian soldier to put a foot down across the Ukrainian frontier. According the Anglo-American master minds, only Washington has the right to foment coup d’etats in Ukraine and choose up future leaders of the new revolution. Seriously, they are bitching about Putin picking candidates to replace the illustrious “Yats” and his successors.
Clearly, every bit of political theatre in Ukraine is and has been simply charades with all of Washington’s directives in that tragic land heretofore being enacted by nothing more than American military might or absurd empty demands. Russia is currently calling their bluff and we will soon see if there is really any “might” they dare flex or if they must slink away from their empty demands. Readers here would bet the latter. The asinine fools in Washington and London still have time to stop their betting, but not much.
Russia’s military-technical response to UK’s hostile and aggressive attitude will be holding naval exercises off the coast of Great Britain and Ireland, right around the area where the entire inter and intra continental submarine optical cable system lays. Just look at the maps. US/NATO cannot do anything about it, besides monitoring the exercises, they are in full compliance with international law.
According to Mr Martyanov – this website is Ukrainian – take care with the information. Mod.
“Russia will hold large-scale military exercises right off the coast of Great Britain”
“The largest Russian military exercises will be held right off the coast of Great Britain.
In response to the provocative actions of London and the open threats issued against Russia, it was decided to hold the largest military exercises right off the coast of Great Britain and Ireland…”
“…This is not just about the deployment of Russian warships, but also about the use of long-range anti-submarine aircraft and missile firing. However, it is not this fact that poses a much greater danger, but the fact that the area where large-scale military exercises of the Russian Navy are conducted is located in the area where submarine optical cables, which are considered almost strategic objects, lie…”
“…Moreover, experts pay attention to the depth map in the area of military exercises. Judging by it, Russian nuclear submarines, special underwater vehicles and special underwater equipment can be transferred to the area, which, due to the lack of equipment, NATO simply cannot monitor.
Quite remarkable is the fact that relatively recently Russian reconnaissance ships, submarines and even special hydrographic vessels were seen in this area.”
Thanks for the warning, I always take it with a grain of salt, double check their info, and have found they sometimes embellish/exaggerate their reporting. Recently an Israeli chopper crashed, avia.pro reported Hezbollah had downed it with a drone. Nowhere else there was a similar report, not even in Hezbollah’s website, or news outlets friendly to Hezbollah.
This time there was quite a bit about Russia’s naval exercises in UK press, but the maps avia.pro had in the article were better, some taken from UK’s news sources.
I had no idea avia.pro/avia-net.pro were Ukrainian, its domain is registered in Russia, contact information is in Moscow, and they seem to have an equal number of Russian/Ukrainian employees.
I saw the exercises on LiveUAMap, and assumed that was what it was about. It makes sense. I’ve been saying for weeks now, here and elsewhere, that I think part of Russia’s “military-technical response” will likely include but not be limited to threatening/attacking the undersea fiber cables and maybe even satellites or satellite ground control stations.
Their response should be something that is technically significant but not politically significant.
I’m not a technical expert, but I think that if the undersea cables are attacked without warning then it will mess up the blockchain ledger of whatever crypto currencies were attempting to be used at that time. The ledgers would be out of sync and thus all/most of the cryptos would experience technical difficulties at once, likely causing their value to rapidly tank. Given the context of Russia banning crypto currencies, and possibly seeking to make a big move in the currency war against the USD/Pound Sterling anyway. Maybe that has something to do with it maybe not. I also wonder about the physical cables SWIFT runs on. Could Russia be preparing to attack SWIFT in the even they are forcibly removed from it with sanctions?
Hopefully someone with more technical knowledge than me can fill me in on this hypothesis.
It is not only about undersea fiber cables.
Russia having a restraining gun on the head of elites of the City of London is a comforting image. May this be a military-technical pattern aimed at “command and control centres.” They understand no other language. Only way to get the crazies to focus.
I have a small anecdote which might help the context: i started my career with Standard Telephones and Cables. STC at the time, dominated the submarine cable business. One task given to me at one point, was to take a map showing all the cables and modify it. It involved erasing a cable from Italy to Tel-Aviv ‘Ital-Tel’ from the map. I questioned this with colleagues, why this was even necessary. They filled me in with more detail. The Marketing Manager was about the visit the General Postmaster in Cairo to make the case for a new Egyptian cable link along the Magreb coastline. Knowing this, i went to the Marketing Manager and accused him of being unethical. Why ask me to hide a cable link when it was an official link. The Marketing Manager explained that he was in the process of negotiating with the Egyptians and he did not want a cable linking Israel to Europe, to stand in the way of any negotiations. I then went ahead and ‘doctored’ the map and others finalised the documents for the Marketing Manager.
Well…the guy returned from his meeting with the Egyptians. STC won the business…but the Marketing manager called me into his office and laughing, he said that one of the first topics the Egyptians raised on viewing the contract documents, was that empty space between Italy and Israel. The devious Marketing Manager at first blamed the omission on his careless staff !! but then the Egyptians pointed out to him that even if there had been a war going on between Egypt and Israel, this did NOT stop the Israelis from allowing the Egyptians access to their cable-link to Italy. So the Marketing manager conceded that I had actually been in the right…there had been no need to do this silly exercise of erasing a link from a map.
But….the Marketing Manager was Polish and a rabid Russophobe. i recall ITT circulating a memo to all STC staff that Russians had made enquiries to buy submarine cable system links and the Marketing Manager telling us that one no account were we to cooperate in any way with any Russian enquiries…
This is a pity as STC shot itself in the foot…it ran out of business opportunities…
Currently the UK media is in hysterical screaming mode about the ease of access to coastal landing point of all the submarine cable links. Since the first transatlantic submarine telecom cable was laid over 100 years ago (it is still there, still working nicely) there have been many wars and everyone has been quite relaxed about the security’ of the cable landing points. There’s even one near the Isle of Grain with a big yellow diamond signage stating “Submarine Cable” ….Big Deal.
I wonder how long it will take for the Media to get hysterical about the fact that the UK gas and oil pipeline system is owned, operated and maintained by a private foreign owner? If i were the PM, i would nationalise such a strategic asset…
Inteiramente de acordo ! E ainda bem que assim está a acontecer ! Já era mais que tempo de resolver este assunto, criar uma estrutura económica integrada, não só eurasiática mas também intercontinental, acabar de vez com as mais que obsoletas estruturas imperiais talassocráticas e dar ao mundo um perfil de desenvolvimento equilibrado e consistente, sustentado no respeito mínimo pelas soberanias, que é o único caminho possível para dignificar a Humanidade e a Civilização.
Tiro o chapéu a quem teve a habilidade e carácter necessários para lançar este processo.
Já estamos atrasados na resposta aos desafios científicos e tecnológicos que marcam as fronteiras do nosso tempo; temos o universo para descobrir e um destino para cumprir; mãos à obra !
Só tenho pena, enquanto Europeu Ocidental, que tantos séculos de impérios e guerras nos tenham gasto, física e moralmente; deste modo vamos limitar-nos a ver os outros dar o salto na maior aventura em que a Humanidade embarcou; na melhor das hipóteses vamos a reboque. Hélàs !
Yandex translation. Mod:
Entirely agree ! And I’m glad it’s happening ! It was high time to resolve this issue, create an integrated economic structure, not only Eurasian but also intercontinental, put an end to the more than obsolete thalassocratic imperial structures and give the world a balanced and consistent development profile, sustained in the minimum respect for sovereignties, which is the only possible way to dignify humanity and civilization.
I take the hat off to those who had the skill and character necessary to launch this process.
We are already behind in responding to the scientific and technological challenges that mark the frontiers of our time; we have the universe to discover and a destiny to fulfill; hands on !
I am only sorry, as a Western European, that so many centuries of empires and wars have spent US, physically and morally; in this way we will limit ourselves to seeing others take the leap on the greatest adventure on which humanity has embarked; at best we will be in tow. Hélàs !
I join the rest in the praise of the article. Succinctly and easy to understand for us of an average IQ.
Khazarians cannot forgive Russian. Anthony Blinken’s father was born in Kiev and he thought little Anthony how to hate Russia. The same Judas who screwed up every Empire to date are in charge in Washington and are destroying America. Saidly for us all, the history repeats itself and in our disbelief, the ‘chickens have come home to roost’. Would the invasion occur? Not as advertised. The snow covered, parked equipment will not move. It was not delivered there to be used in the invasion. It is parked there as part of “maskirovka” and misdirections. The author picked up on the sidelines where the main show is occuring. We would know more at the beginning of February after the Games open and Putin meet Xi. The shell game shuffle is in progress, nonetheless.
Ronald Cutburth explains that the geriatric billionaires who pull the strings don’t understand the latest military technology and have an attitude.
Consequently Cutburth is morbid.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed publicly in Geneva on Friday, January 21, that he will not negotiate a no-war agreement with the Russians because he cannot. This is already understood by the Russians; by the French and Germans; and by several senior officials of the Biden Administration.
Tested in two hot wars, and during the Cold War, the RAND method for gauging the intention of the adversary predicts this about Blinken – he wants war with Russia; he has no mind for any alternative.
UKRAINE CRISIS: German Navy Chief Resigns; Britain Spreads Fears of Russian ‘Coup’ & Wider War.
Germany appears to be joining France in trying to lower the temperature and put the breaks on an Anglo-American rush to war…
The dissension by the German admiral and the French president to the U.S. position highlights the war hysteria being stirred up daily over Ukraine as a mostly Anglo-American endeavor.
Britain has begun playing an increasing role with the United States in preparing its populations for war, reminiscent of the lead-up to the 2003 U.S-U.K. invasion of Iraq.
On Saturday, the British Foreign Office said Russia is planning to “install a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv as it considers whether to invade and occupy Ukraine.”…
Nato/eu front-coalition collapsing in front of us.
Anglozio will need a false flag (fast before the date they are ‘supposed’ to deliver their written answer to Moscow).
Don’t expect them to respect th Olympics period of course..and if they can touch(p r) China even better for them.
False flag à la MH17 or even worse needed to make France and Germany switch to war.
Of course Macron has prsidential elections in two months(04/10 and 04/24) and then parlimentary elections follow in may/june.
Macron refused to say if he will ”be able to be candidate” if certains ‘events’ don’t permit it.Eventhough it is ver likely he will be candidate if nothing happen till then.
He refuses all tv debates with other candidates(even less with Zemmour who is pro Russia), 4 candidates(two major, two minor) are no opposed to NATO in one way or the other.
Blinken Says “Too Early” For Russia Sanctions As Hope For Unified NATO Response Unravels.
The United States says it’s putting together a “global strategy” to increase gas production among allies in the scenario of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. “The State Department, led by Senior Adviser for Energy Security Amos Hochstein, has in the last six to eight weeks been putting together a global strategy exploring contingency options to redirect and increase gas supplies from different parts of the world, a senior US official said,” CNN reports Sunday. This has included talks with firms in Europe, the Middle East, North Africa and Asia.
At the same time, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken explained during Sunday news talk show appearances that at this point it’s “too early” to impose sanctions on Russia, despite the current atmosphere of building war rhetoric. He still threatened “massive consequences” for any Russian offensive, yet stressed that US is still leaving the door open for diplomacy. An eventual diplomatic resolution to the crisis is looking more and more likely given the lack of a unified NATO willingness to escalate to the level of armed conflict, particularly given Germany’s breaking with other allies of the last few days, including its refusal to send Kiev German arms. Thus it seems “all options” are not on the table just yet…
Anonymous Officials Claim There’s An Evil Russian Plot Again But The Evidence Is Secret Again.
BREAKING: U.S. issues travel warning for Ukraine due to “increased threats of Russian military action,” says Americans should leave now. reuters afp
It seems that we will have a false false flag very soon, before Beijing 22.
update 01:26 Paris time
US diplomats’ families ordered to leave Ukraine
It is two-bit theatre. NATO is as divided in Europe as the US is divided domestically. There is no united front against Russia. Even if it was only after one schnapps too many, the German admiral’s words reflect a remarkable divergence from official statements. I would like to know what the admiral thinks privately about the Americans. Both the head and the heart must be in alignment for any effective policy to be carried out. Russia has little to fear from the NATO entity.
US/UK are pulling diplomats and issuing travel advisories to their citizens. Ze is shvitzing and pulling on his collar. Soon he will be wanted like Epstein.
Ukraine is changing hands in real-time.
great text. I also had this position in a previous comment of mine. I see that too. The empire now has to be chasing the cookie, chasing the problems. Like a boastful hyena.
The first thing that we have to keep in mind, is that throughout the deep western state there is a cold war, a dispute, a fight. Even in the deep state of the european union, france and germany. It seems that the English queen and bankers still speak louder in England for now. The best prediction we can make is that we will have some major war in the next 10 years: either Ukraine, Iran or American civil war, etc. Nuclear war is least likely to happen. There is something happening in the American military that also happens in the German military: some military awakened and aware of the beginning of a new era, and a new world order. The US military is more evolved than its Zionist politicians.
The kettle is boiling all over the world behind the scenes of power. Yes, this virus pandemic could have been created by some psychopathic faction of the Empire’s power center.
I was right about Germany: the German industrial empire of Hamburg is putting pressure on German political power. This explains German schizophrenia. Germany will define the time of the empire’s fall. The word of the industrialists of Hamburg, etc., is fundamental in the German power. Kay-Achim Schönbach commander of the German navy is probably a pawn used by some power in Germany. This needs to be investigated by professional analysts. What is happening in Germany now? East Germany is dissatisfied with German policy, and most of them want real changes in German policy. They no longer want to be vassals. In a recent election in a former East German state, the AfD was the most voted party among those under 30, contradicting the argument that many vote for the far right because they grew up in a dictatorship. I know a German from Bavaria who wants to get closer to Russia.
We can already conclude: NATO is divided, the West is divided. If Germany doesn’t change the direction of its ship, the German industry will not be able to compete, and East Germany will become a new country. I know it’s dangerous to say this on the internet, Zionist algorithms are everywhere.
checkmate has been given for some time, the empire simply did not see it. Putin is just handling, playing with the pawns, while distracting the Empire that salivates from the corners of its mouth. The mousetrap will be cocked when the dollar is hit. And what will happen in the US no one can predict. Perhaps it all depends on the degree of conscience and civility of the American military. The US situation is very complex, and the steps of probable decline cannot be accurately predicted.
The expression Middle East and Asia Minor is wrong. The Anglo-Saxon Zionists who created this expression. It could be West Asia, etc.
The US planted a storm, and will at least reap a storm too.
24/7 hours days, the western communication media is burning the Russian image. A narrative war. But it’s too late. the heart of the Empire has already been pierced, and the hidden blood will appear. Putin and Xi are just managing this. They are humanitarian and responsible.
And yes, anything can happen. Dark times!
Happy to find you and so many kindred spirits on this thread.
The image that best represent world these days looks like an assembly of elders confabulating on how best to conduct a PR campaign to persuade the last-century giant squid, octopus if you prefer, to accept its fast-coming condition of naked hermit crab in between shells. (Name the squid/crab as you wish: West, AngloZio, Venetians, etc.)
The elders, hesitating to leave Poseidons, Burevestiniks, Sarmats in the hands of their children, appear to be engaging Siberian shamans to recall Ed Bernays in the neighboring multiverse to help with messaging to reach hearts in the West. If you doubt that something along these lines is happening, please explain why Lavrov is being so careful now, taking written notes and Maria to assist in press conferences.
To counter the elders, armies of well-paid pundits, history professors, press secretaries, all through the MSM, you-tube and blogs are attempting to convince us that an invasion, totally contrary to history, is imminent.
It should be crystal clear to any observer, honest or not, that Russia does not have or show any inclination to remarry Ukraine. See below some sparse indications, incontestable facts:
–the USSR dissolving itself on its own accord, see Helsinki;
–Russia’s ability, had it wanted to, to counter Victoria’s cookies and $5billion with less than 57 Spetsnaz around Maidan times;
–VVP holding back the Donbas army after it was about to take half of the country in 2015 in a, up to now, vain attempt to keep the country whole, see Minsky 2;
–Russia 5 years of patiently waiting for the partners and the neighbor to act on the agreements they (Germany, France and Poroshenko) desperately sought VVP’s help in establishing;
Kremlin policy regarding Ukraine is obvious: “You broke it, you fix it”, impossible for the West to understand as they never, in 500 years, fixed anything they broke.
In the background there appears to exist a godfather-like proposal to the West:
“ We can slow down, or even interrupt, our schedule to reach first strike capability anytime you people in the West want to talk seriously about how to start together a path to peace. We can provide help anyway you define for you to deal with your need to keep some self-esteem and protect your ego. In return, and in the meantime, please try to stop hurting people unnecessarily ”.
This is what’s next – https://www.foxnews.com/politics/president-biden-weighing-sending-troops-to-counter-russia. Doubling down, so crazy!!
US considers deploying American troops in Baltics, Eastern Europe – NY Times daily
President Biden is considering deploying several thousand US troops, as well as warships and aircraft, to NATO allies in the Baltics and Eastern Europe
The New York Times daily cited its source, who spoke on conditions of anonymity as saying that “In a meeting on Saturday at Camp David, the presidential retreat in Maryland, senior Pentagon officials presented Mr. Biden with several options that would shift American military assets much closer to Mr. Putin’s doorstep… The options include sending 1,000 to 5,000 troops to Eastern European countries, with the potential to increase that number tenfold if things deteriorate.”
The US Embassy in Kiev will continue with its work despite recent instructions to families of American diplomats to leave Ukraine, a high-ranking official with the US Department of State said.
The US Department of State ordered earlier on Sunday families of American diplomats and some of its diplomatic staff in Ukraine’s Kiev to leave the country. “On January 23, 2022, the Department of State authorized the voluntary departure of US direct hire employees and ordered the departure of eligible family members from Embassy Kiev due to the continued threat of Russian military action,” the statement reads. “US citizens in Ukraine should consider departing now using commercial or other privately available transportation options.”
The official also said that the United States would continue rendering military assistance to Ukraine and in case of a possible escalation “the United States will provide additional defensive material to Ukraine above and beyond that already provided.”
The press service of the US Embassy in Ukraine reported on January 22 that a shipment of military cargo, including ammunition, weighing over 90 tonnes arrived in Ukraine. The embassy noted that last year, the US provided more than $650 million worth of military aid to Ukraine since 2014, while the country received $2.7 billion for these purposes.
“in case of a possible escalation “the United States will provide additional defensive material to Ukraine above and beyond that already provided.”
That’s hilarious. Like the Russians are going to allow the US to resupply Ukraine once the war has broken out. This is more proof of Martyanov’s thesis that the US has no one who comprehends what modern war looks like – even in the Pentagon.
this can be a key, an answer. But it is likely that the words of the empire are just words and gestures for the western population. So we could put this as part of an axiom, syllogism. It seems that the empire still insists on advertising. Populations do not understand modern warfare, nor do Western academics. But maybe the Pentagon or part of it understands modern warfare, but they’re playing some game. This is also a game of chess.
In two weeks the vast majority of this ‘aid’ will be in NAF lagers and the most interesting already in Moskau. No big deal, NAF have defended themselves for almost 8 years and will continue to do so. That herd of miners and tractor drivers have proven to be a brick wall for SehSha and the orcs.
How utterly generous of the US and UK to send troops and material to the Ukraine, so close to Russias border…and make it so easy for Russia to destroy without spending the kind of energy that is sapping the Empire…
How nice of the US and UK to send troops to the Ukraine so that they can have a great holiday there and enjoy the fruits of western intervention since 2014 – the continuous power-cuts, the filthy tap water, the constant interruptions in gas supply, the disrupted food distribution…
The US and NATO troops are entering a country full of Russian speakers…hmmm reminds me of the days when the NVA could send the Viet Cong south and many southern Vietnamese collaborated and coordinated their activities…as brothers do…
@ Liz on January 23, 2022
“I saw the exercises on LiveUAMap, and assumed that was what it was about. It makes sense. I’ve been saying for weeks now, here and elsewhere, that I think part of Russia’s “military-technical response” will likely include but not be limited to threatening/attacking the undersea fiber cables and maybe even satellites or satellite ground control stations…”
I have seen your posts, always thoughtful and on point.
“Their response should be something that is technically significant but not politically significant.”
Can’t see the logic of your statement. If it is technically significant, from the POV of a military operation, it has to be politically significant, the bigger the better. Final defeat of any adversary takes place in the halls of power, at the centers of political decision-making. If they find themselves blind, no networks, no GPS, no communications with their puppet masters, they will be facing a significant political decision: surrender.
“I’m not a technical expert, but I think that if the undersea cables are attacked without warning then it will mess up the blockchain ledger of whatever crypto currencies were attempting to be used at that time. The ledgers would be out of sync and thus all/most of the cryptos would experience technical difficulties at once, likely causing their value to rapidly tank. Given the context of Russia banning crypto currencies, and possibly seeking to make a big move in the currency war against the USD/Pound Sterling anyway. Maybe that has something to do with it maybe not.”
I don’t see the crypto currency deal as relevant in the great scheme of things.
” I also wonder about the physical cables SWIFT runs on. Could Russia be preparing to attack SWIFT in the even they are forcibly removed from it with sanctions?”
Konstantin Gavrilov, head of the Russian delegation in Vienna, already said US/Eurostan cannot cut Russia from SWIFT.
The head of the Russian delegation in Vienna said that it is impossible to disconnect Russia from SWIFT
“…Disconnect Russia with oil, with gas and with all affairs. Are they laughing? Gavrilov said with irony. – That was immediately clear. It’s called, “Scare. Oh, we weren’t scared – okay, then we won’t.” He added that the authors of such threats against Russia in the West remind him of an animal that eats a cactus,, but still continues…”
It’s interesting to see that name again, Yevgeny Fyodorov. Back in 2014, I learned about the color revolution handbook written by Gene Sharp from him. He made a video with the clearest and most detailed explanation of how it had been applied in the Ukraine and elsewhere, wherever the empire wants to overturn a government.
Russian officials are so much smarter than the bureaucrats of globohomo, who can do nothing but parrot “Russian aggression” on an endless loop. With no examples of this aggression to cite.
Back then, I was also watching videos by the eccentric reporter Graham Philips. Some of these videos were stripped of context and relabeled “Russian aggression” by the BBC. .
Nice analysis, Tarik. Very concise, and I think, accurate. However,
“I can only attest that the one thing greater than their evil idiocy, is their cowardice.”
This statement assumes a rational player, ignoring the possibility of insanity.
Amazing analysis. Thanks a lot! Let’s now see how the big picture plays out. At the end, maybe the West will come to its senses but I would not bet on that. Both the structural crisis of late-stage capitalism, ignorance of history, and hubris point to the contrary. Meaning that whatever role the U.S and Europe could play in a multipolar world would they acknowledge the fact that times are changing will not happen. Bad times ahead, especially for the common people in these regions. I always like to remember bits from the fall of previous empires. Here, one that comes to mind is the war between Portugal and the African possessions during the 60s and 70s. Instead of dialogue, Salazar decided to go to war. This in a country where large numbers of people lived miserably. One can only especulate what would have happened had he sit with PAIGC leader Amílcar Cabral. Maybe autonomy for Cape Vert and Guine-Bissau instead of independence (I once heard Cabral’s brother says so, that they were prepared to discuss autonomy before the war), certainly less misery and death, and who knows, may even the revolution would not have taken place in 1974, maybe just a peaceful transition to democracy.
Your final quote is quote interesting. “In case American nuclear weapons are launched from Taiwan”… but those would not target Russia.
In essence the message is, “your have your Taiwanese lackeys nuke China, and we will nuke New York.”
The Empire is coming apart before our eyes.
The US can’t fight Russia on behalf of Ukraine. It can’t persuade the pre 1997 NATO members to join it in fighting Russia.
And it can’t agree to the Russian proposals.
Meanwhile the pain dial will keep ratcheting up.
It can persuade P+3B+RO+BUL
Putin is impotent. Putin is trying hard to be ‘recognize as “equal” partner of the evil west’.
As forseen, western financial casino starts to slowly collape.
Futures Tumble On Rising Fed Fears, Geopolitical Tensions
Good psyop steps Russia should take to panic the West:
-evacuate rus diplomats + families from nato-eu countries
-tell Russian who live in nato-eu countries to evacuate to motherland of course ‘if they wish so'(traitors may stay there)
This will panic the US/UK/EU/NATO crowd…even more. Shit these russians are really serious
Announcing a possible declaration of war (via leaks), on all nato/eu countries, will bring even better ‘results’ on financial markets(free fall)
Moscow stock exchange must close for unlimited time.
Fith columns media like Moscow times etc terminated, journos ans western diplo expelled, must leave Russia before tuesday 18.00 mt
This would collapse western finmarkets, the only thing(greed)they care about.
But it will not happen as Russia is too naive, polite and unfortunatly has no PR/COM power.
Fyi this comment(I don’t agree perso with him 100%), but interesting anyway
There will be NO written answer from US of course and from NATO(copy paste anyway).
Their answer is already there ‘live’: weapons, war, more troops, more vessels, fighterjets etc
Top EU Stock Indexes Drop by Around 3%
It goes according to plans, just the beginning.
Bank of Russia suspends currency buying due to market volatility
The decision to resume foreign currency purchases will be taken subject to the actual situation on financial markets.
Russia must act with real and very credible threads of war(not only in ukr) via diplo channels, against NATO/EU otherwise Russia finmarkets will collapse before.
I hope they will do it, it is now too late
As I understand, the buying is to increase Russia’s reserves:
“Under the fiscal rule, the Ministry of Finance purchases foreign currency monthly using extra oil sales income above certain level and then allocates such currency to reserves.”
So, halting the buying means the reserves are frozen. Since I assume the foreign currency is dollars, this just means Russia is detaching even further from the West. I interpret that as very good for Russia. From what I remember, they have been buying gold instead, which is a much better than dollars.
I think this is good news for Russia, not the other way around. The problem would be if they were buying to try to stabilize the market and suddenly stopped it. But, as I understand, it is not that.
Diplomat-historian George F. Kennan perhaps said it most clearly when he wrote earlier this year in a newspaper commentary: “Expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the post cold-war era. Such a decision may be expected . . . to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking.” https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1997-jul-07-me-10464-story.html
I notice the New York Stock Exchange has been taking a bit of a tumble since the first of the year. That tends to happen just before the U.S. enters into a war. I surmise the New York money people are trying to goad the U.S. President into starting one.
We also are starting to see the usual pre-war hype in the mainstream news.
I’m thinking it is time for the good people in the Ukraine to run for cover while the rest of us get another bowl of popcorn.
In the articles below, Gilbert Doctorow explains how Ukraine is only part of a Russian geostrategic game with greater stakes.
Namely, the Russians want to compel America and its NATO allies to capitulate and agree to a broader rollback of the USA/NATO military threat.
Doctorow states that the Russia has been doing a masterful job of utilizing the so-called “Ukrainian crisis” to advance this broader geopolitical ambition.
The Russians have thus been able to deploy the tension created by this “crisis” as a psyops to put pressure on the Anglo Americans and Europeans, inducing fissures between these 2 factions, and move them towards (tacitly) agreeing to this NATO retreat.
All without having fired a shot.
Psy Ops as the key to understanding what Russia has been doing lately to force a US-NATO capitulation.
Blinken and Lavrov meeting in Geneva: two steps forward and one step back
Oh my gosh, my head is swimming
Tariq, you have unleashed a tsunami!
I can’t begin to add anything of value but may I humbly offer two thoughts.
I recently watched “Dr. Strange love: Or, how I learned to love the bomb and stop worrying.”
Current events strike me as the blackest comedy, ever.
The return to the Normandy Talks may be the last chance for sanity.
Praying for us all.
China should make it so costly for Uncle $hmuel, that he can no longer afford to pay 75% of
NATO costs. If and when that happens, NATO will fold like a cheap card table. The Euros have made it clear that they have no intention of spending lavishly on their militaries.
Tarik, thank you for such a fin article sir. Where can we find more of your work?
Given how hot this topic is, and how good of an analysis this is especially for laymen, I think you should add some good photos and formatting razzle-dazzle and market the article more broadly. Maps would do wonders for people to visualize. Just a friendly suggestion :-)
Thanks to Saker for featuring this author, I would like to see more work from him in the future.
Tanks again Tarik!