Dear friends

Today I am opening yet one more open thread and I am offering this suggestion for a topic (not excluding other *related* topics from the discussion): what should the scope of the Russian reaction to a Ukronazi attack be?

Here, I will offer my own opinion in a short bulletpoint format:

  1. Russia should intervene within hours of any Ukrainian attack because leaving the LDNR forces alone will result in needlessly high LDNR casualties.  Yes, they can probably resist very effectively, but the cost might be very high.  Russia can help without any such massive loss of life.
  2. Early in the operation Russia needs to “lock” the airspace above the theater of operations (at least in the Ukrainian operational depth) and officially declare a no-fly zone.
  3. Russia should strike throughout the operational and even strategic depth of the Ukraine because the Ukronazi armed forces must be disorganized and decapitated.  Key Ukronazi officials must be eliminated just like the Wahabis in Chechnia and Syria have been.
  4. Russian forces should stop at or near the current line of contact for a number of reasons including i) the fact that Russia has no moral obligation before the Ukrainian people who have to liberate themselves and not wait for Russia to do so ii) Russia has no need for a long counterinsurgency operation iii) Russia did not break the Ukraine and should not be asked to pay for its reconstruction iv) if Russia inflicts a severe enough defeat on the Ukronazi forces the country will implode anyway.
  5. LDNR forces, however, need to move as far as they see needed to establish a permanent international border (recognized or not, makes no difference) between the LDNR and the rump Banderastan.  Russia should support LDNR forces by “maneuvers by fire”, EW, intelligence, control of the airspace and special operations.
  6. The entire Ukrainian Navy and Air Force (both admittedly rather symbolic and amusingly tiny) must be destroyed (including their support infrastructure).  The Nazis must be disarmed, like Saakashvili has been in 08.
  7. Though it is unlikely that the Urkonazis would attack Crimea or attempt to breach the rest of the Russo-Ukrainian border, Russia should be ready to fully repeal even a major attack on these directions.
  8. Should any insurrections take place in cities like Mariupol, Nikolaev, Odessa and other, Russia should not openly intervene, but could use her considerable EW and cyberwarfare capabilities to disrupt the functioning of the local Ukronazi authorities.
  9. The radars of Russian coastal defenses and Black Sea Fleet vessels should all switched to a targeting mode to make it clear to any ship sailing in the Black Sea that it’s lifespan is measured in minutes and totally depends on the goodwill of Russia.  The same goes for the control of the airspace along/near the Russian airspace.
  10. Last, but not least, Russia should announce the total termination of any and all good exports from Russia to the Ukraine (including energy).  Let them choke without the “aggressor’s” goods.

These are just some of my thoughts today, suggestions if you want.  Now I would like to turn this over to you and see what you have to say.

Kind regards

The Saker

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