So those evil vodka-soaked Russians are deploying their forces right near the Ukrainian border and are about to attack. Right?
Well, today I want to begin by sharing a few very basic maps with you. First, here is a map of Russia with her military districts:
The most important thing to understand is that the city of Moscow is located in the middle of the Western Military District which, in other words, means that Moscow is located on in frontier/border/boundary (приграничный) MD.
During the Cold War, the Ukraine used to be considered a 2nd strategic echelon territory (see here for a detailed discussion of how the Soviet forces were structured) and Moscow was far away from any conceivable frontline.
Nowadays, the entire Ukraine is de facto NATO controlled territory. In other words, the capital of Russia is located less than 300 miles from the Russian border with the Ukraine (see map)
Here is another very revealing factoid: during the 90s, Russia did not have a single division-size fully manned unit deployed west of Moscow. Now Russia has fully reactivated her famous 1st Guards Tank Army as the strategic reserve for the Western Military District.
What do you think brought about this rather dramatic change?
Might that not have something to do with the fact that NATO forces are now within the driving distance (on a tank, nor car) to Moscow’s suburbs?
And I won’t even go into the distances between the NATO forces in the 3B and Saint Petersburg (less than 100 miles).
And, in the light of the maps above, what do you think the Russians, any Russian, would make of the NATO verbiage: “we will never move (politically) NATO to the east, but now we had to, we will never deploy NATO forces to the east, but now we had to, we will not deliver lethal weapons to the Ukraine, but now we had to, we will not accept (de jure and de facto) the Ukraine in NATO, but now had to, etc. etc. etc.“.
The truth is that the Empire has been preparing a war against Russia since at least the mid 90s and that these preparations dramatically accelerated in the past seven years.
Which makes me wonder, what did the leaders of the Empire expect the Russians to do? Move all their forces back into the Central Military District so as to not frighten the 3B+PU? Seriously?
The truth of the matter is much simpler: in case of war, the three western military districts (Northern, Western and Southern) would all three find themselves in the first strategic echelon.
BTW – the Northern Military District has now been augmented with the Northern Fleet Joint Strategic Command (Объединённое стратегическое командование Северный флот) with a status equal to a military district which could haev been called “Arctic Military District”). Its official designation now is “joint strategic territorial formation of the Russian Armed Forces performing the task of a military district“. Its forces would also play a key role in northern Europe and the northern Atlantic.
In case of war, Russian military districts become “fronts”, that is “unified commands of operational and strategic troops (forces) of the armed forces in the continental theater of operations” which is militaryspeak for an independent military force capable of waging a full-scale combined arms war. Please keep in mind that these fronts would also have, when needed, the support of rear military districts and units/forces of the strategic reserve.
So what does all this mean?
It means that while western politicians spent the past 30 years or so slowly encircling Russia, Russian force planners successfully reformed the Soviet/Russian armed forces (which were in a terrible shape in the 90s and in a very uneven shape during most of the 80s) into a military capable of taking on all of NATO at once and quickly and very painfully defeat it.
Remember all those super-dooper weapons Putin mentioned in 2018 which were initially dismissed as “bad cartoons” by western “specialists” and which are now mostly deployed? You cannot understand their real role and significance unless you also take into account the reform (I would even say redesign) of the Russian armed forces in the last decade or so. If you want a quick refresher on this topic, please see this analysis I wrote in 2016, that is two years BEFORE Putin unveiled the new Russian weapons systems!
Here is the key element to remember when considering what could happen next: should it come to a real, full-scale, shooting war between Russia and the West, ALL of these weapons systems and forces will be available to the Kremlin and most of them probably will be used in the very early phases of this war. And I am not only taking about Iskander missiles or Bastion/Bal coastal defenses, I am also talking about the First Guards Tank Army which is such a powerful formation that there is literally no western equivalent to it. Such heavy armored formation have such the forces and means of destruction which would make it possible to carry out an operational breakthrough of the enemy’s front and while the same time reliably overcoming of the entire operational depth of enemy defense. During WWII and the Cold War such formation were called “Shock Armies” (ударная армия). If you look at the entire order of battle of NATO forces they simply don’t have anything even comparable to such a force.
And so, yes, of course, NATO commanders are frightened by what they see, this is true, and quite understandable. What is not understandable is why these delusional idiots created the condition which left Russia no other choice than to be ready to fight a full scale war in Europe, including a nuclear one.
And what do they want the Kremlin to do now? To dismantle these forces or send them back behind the Urals maybe?
I will simply end here with a few questions which don’t seem to bother the western “specialists” (LOL!) very much:
- How completely out of touch with reality can western leaders be?
- Last time around, Russia lost about 27 million people, including a full 3rd of the population of Bielorussia. Does anybody in Europe seriously expect the Russians to forget that?
- Does anybody in Europe seriously expect the Russians to trust a single word western leaders say?
- Does anybody in Europe seriously doubt the determination of the Russians not to allow yet another European surprise attack?
- And, finally, does anybody in Europe seriously doubt the outcome of a war against Russia?
PS: Russian Defense Minister Shoigu just reported that in November the USAF used 10 strategic bombers coming in from both the east and the west to rehearse nuclear strikes on Russia and that they changed course only 20km from the Russian airspace.
PPS: also please make sure to check Andrei Martyanov’s analysis today (and check him on a daily basis!)
Great article, Saker. This is why I’ve been reading you daily since the July war 2006!
They didn’t have the guts to attack Russia when they were strongest possible while Russia weakest possible, let alone now when the tide has turned 180 degrees. So nothing to worry about, hot air and extrorting of 2% GDP from delusional idiots and minions; along with indebting through buying aged unneccessary overpriced American military equipment.
Nothing to worry about – assuming no accidents, mistakes, irrational moves, gung-ho Yankee-clown Rambos, etc.
You are assuming that the West is a rational actor, which I am not at all certain is prudent.
They did not attack Russia when she was at her weakest because they thought the country would break up. Also, Russia had nuclear weapons. They were waiting for the country to disintegrate and then walk in, spreading ‘democracy’ and ‘human rights’. I think we can say that Putin saved the country, transforming the situation. What he did is remarkable, and I doubt if NATO has fully grasped the new situation.
Will NATO give up it’s offensive plans against Russia ? Highly unlikely. NATO is the Praetorian Guard of Western bankers, used for aggression and plundering.
The chief problem here is psychological. The West has been dreaming of breaking up Russia at least since 1812, when Napoleon attacked it. Napoleon, the Kaiser and Hitler were all proxy fighters, financed by the West. The largest armies which Napoleon and Hitler used were those against Russia. And who payed for all of this ? Is the West capable of discarding it’s plans on invading, breaking up and plundering Russia ? Obviously not. The West cannot forget the words of geographer Halford Mackinder and his warnings on the importance of Euro-Asia, especially now when Western finances are in a terrible shape, with huge debts and with both the dollar and euro printed backed by nothing.The Western elites are like a drunk who cannot function without his favorite booze.
What is incredible is that both NATO ships and nuclear bombers are training close to Russian borders. It’s a well known fact that there are crazies on Wall Street who think that Russia can be defeated by a sneak attack, no doubt influenced by Hollywood movies. It would appear that this mentality is also present in the US military, which is the backbone of NATO. By training so close to Russian borders, NATO is obviously hoping to implement a sneak attack, hoping Russian defenses would not have enough time to retaliate. A dangerous, gamblers way of thinking.
I think that Western leaders have had the same ideas for so long that they have turned to stone in their heads. Essentially they are the leaders of a financial/economic pirate consortium which aims to plunder all of the world’s resources. For over a century they have got away with the same tactics: use financial trickery and “soft power” to take over the countries they target, then loot them.
Should anyone try to resist those methods, they have others: brute force. Either they openly bomb and invade; or they send in terrorists; or they do what they are trying to do to Russia and China – a sort of “gradual creep”.
To their minds (if I may use that noun loosely) every inch of progress is an inch of gain, never to be surrendered. I think the hope to “crack” Russia, China and Iran simply by building up pressure on them. They have either overlooked, or refuse to understand, that such methods cannot work against the continent of Asia, which is fully self-sufficient and relatively easy to defend. And now it has millions of well-armed, well-trained soldiers plus state-of-the-art missiles, aircraft, warships and submarines.
I think the Washington warmongers honestly believe that the Russians and Chinese will never fight, if the nibbling is gradual enough.
But the Russians and Chinese are already ‘fighting’, just a guess on my part, an underwater drone hit the US Sub, accidently on purpose of course, especially if said sub was inside China’s territorial waters.
thanks. I needed to read this. Run into an underwater mountain, indeed! This is a so much more plausible explanation than the M$M-BS put forth.
“To their minds (if I may use that noun loosely) every inch of progress is an inch of gain, never to be surrendered”.
Belatedly I remember what was at the back of my mind when I wrote that.
“Take what you can; give nothing back”.
Andrew! you said at one point in the article, “if there is a fierce war between Russia and the West” I think that the West does not have or has zero possibility of a fierce war against Russia, a parade of military forces up and down around Russia is a circus some models, who do not even remotely have the Patriotic Spirit of Mother Russia. I don’t think they could win Hezbollah either, they don’t know what war is at all – it’s not a bombing of weaker countries, it’s a war against the Giants of the Russian spirit, they are weak soldiers with weak hearts against the giant hearts of Russia.
No, no, this is quite wrong. The US can deploy some truly fearsome military formations – the Bill Clinton Light Infantry, Transsexual Team Six, the 3rd Heavy Lesbians, and the Presidents Own San Francisco Gays to take the enemy from the rear. I dont know what effect these bodies of men/ women/ whatever/ will have on the Russians/ Iranians, but they certainly frighten me.
Don’t forget the powerful new U.S. Navy ship they just “christened”, the fearsome United States Sodomite Ship, the USSS Harvey Milk!
I do like “the 3rd Heavy Lesbians”!
No, it can be wrong, because it was said from the deep insight and safe heart of the giants, in relation to America to cheating itself and it is well known, they are cheating their own people with propaganda and lies. The biggest thing that can impose sanctions on a ship involved in the construction of the North Stream 2 gas pipeline is the range of America. I am sure in my heart that America has absolutely no power against Russia, and they have no possibility of defense if they start a war, they will be completely destroyed, but really completely to non-existence. I can see that, just see the launch of hypersonic weapons and nothing more, and they know it well today and in the future because America is collapsing faster and faster. In addition, he has a brain drain, when he says that he will defend Ukraine, a really big idiocy.
A short excerpt from Incident On Simonka says it all if Foggy Bottom/Five Points/eu is foolish enough to attack Mat Rossiya, just one word changed:
“You learned nothing while you were here? You believed your own propaganda about us? Know this, Marine. We will fight you, if needs be we will fight you alone and to the death. You may take this city but what you will get is a smoking ruin where we will fight you for every house, every cottage, every wall, every back alley, every window, every hill, every ditch and every dacha garden. You will be safe nowhere. Rossiya will be your grave, Marine, you and all of your comrades, it will make Stalingrad look like a kindergarten tea party.”
‘Nough said, and sadly more true than any westerner can imagine.
Never the Last One: a Novel of Spetznaz. This novel opens your eyes to a world not described in American news or fiction. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1521849056
An Incident On Simonka paperback edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1696160715 NATO Is Invited To Leave Sevastopol, One Way Or The Other.
Well said, Saker! This is the type of analysis I want to read, and is the reason I supported your blog since you first started.
Andrei; I really appreciate how well you are keeping us all up to date. Speaking as a New Zealander who has lived in the United States for the last 40 years one of the things I really love about the Russian people is how remarkably sane and down to earth they are. It reminds me of my homeland.
You are probably well aware that one of the spectacularly freaky things that American males (generally speaking) are known for is that they seem to be unconscious of how they project their self alienation, denial, fear and hatred onto others and then self righteously accuse the other of doing the very thing that they are doing themselves. This seems to be a fundamental staple of American foreign policy. Given how deeply the Anglo-American empire is invested in controlling the Europeans it is easy to understand their European lackeys aping this same syndrome.
I believe you are accurately reading the general psychological atmosphere that exists between the Empire and Russia. A wind in favor of war is blowing. I think it is a manifestation of a deep sickness in the Western psyche. They cannot live comfortably without aggression. But what I am not seeing is any specific locality where it is remotely possible for the empire to actually start a war and realize any of its aims on a material level.
Israel cannot attack Iran or even Lebanon without getting wiped out by missiles from the axis of resistance.
Ukies cannot attack anywhere without getting wiped out.
The empire cannot materially prevail in any of the theaters of conflict, and I believe they know this full well.
So driven mad by an aggressive blood lust combined with the fact that there is no way they can actually satisfy it all Biden can do is desperately seek summits with China and Russia.
So while agreeing with you that there is clearly an atmospheric wind for war blowing, can you see any specific theater where the empire has a hope in hell of prevailing should it try and start something serious? I cannot.
For this reason I suggest we are experiencing rumors of war but not the real thing. In my view Russia is safe as long as it keeps its guard up and a sane head. Easy for Russia to do.
Can you tell me where there is a real credible military threat on the ground where the empire is in danger of succeeding in serious aggression? i cannot see it.
Can you tell me where there is a real credible military threat on the ground where the empire is in danger of succeeding in serious aggression?
No, I do not see that either.
At “best” the Empire can commit global suicide.
Andrei wrote: “How completely out of touch with reality can western leaders be”?
As Snow White also have noticed: there seems to be a bully attitude among some Westerners.
They usually start confrontations by accusing its victims of being aggressive while they are the one who are aggressive.
They com-on to you, very over confident, threatening and demeaning.
They don’t understand when you calmly say back off, but take it as a sign of weakness.
However they rise up totally baffled and whines after they have being stricken to the ground.
This is obviously different from the Russian an Nordic way of facing a fight.
Such bullies only seems able to read their opponents determination when he is acting like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WMErc1n6Ks
‘attitude among some westerners’. Your ‘some’, among many hundreds of millions of people? Speaking with this kind of generality is not helpful at all. Hate upon hate upon hate upon hate, ultimately solves nothing. Do you think it’s beneficial to get everyone royally pissed off, even those MANY who may be sympathetic to your view? Is it better to make enemies of even these people who bare you no il-will? That is a stupid mistake.
A Farther do not hate his child when he is scolding it for bad behavior.
He loves his child by teaching it how not to be Hated by those he or she has harmed.
It is also not Hate Speech to scolder adults who do harm out of evil, stupidity, or indifference.
I write in a kind of “generality” to pinpoint the ways (often by stealth) that evil is perpetrated by adults.
I write in a kind of “generality” to wake adult people up from their propaganda induced sleep.
If I have gotten You Royally Pissed off, I would like to know why?
Did I wake you up?
Or were you raised up never being scolded by a Farther for bad behavior, so when you hear or read scolding you are indoctrinated to believe that it is hate speech?
The reason why we see laws against Hate Speech induced in the west, is an attempt by adult Bullies to silence critique of their evil?
If I have gotten some Bullies Royally Pissed off, they deserve it, and should be ashamed of themselves.
None of you seems to understand the plan of the empire !
First of all there is an empire within the empire . The empire on the surface is
the US , NATO , Western Europe . Within this empire there is , and always has been a
hidden EMPIRE . This hidden empire stronger than ever before , This hidden empire
want to implement the NEW WORD ORDER . How is that possible ?
If the surface empire would have attacked Russia when they were week they would
have prevailed , but they were advised against it by the experts of the hidden empire.
After the second world war , the surface empire wanted to demolish the Soviet Union
because they have nuclear weapon first . Again they were advised against by the experts
of the hidden empire . Why???
Because the hidden empire doesn’t want winners , they have no need for winners because
they are just hindering the plan for a new world order.
They want Russia strong very , very strong , because the western surface empire numerically
superior , so to ensure when the time comes there will be total destruction on both sides.
When the western civilization destroyed with the best and brightest white males dead on the
battle fields , there is no one can oppose the secret empire to the NWO.
I think you’re misunderstanding the purpose of basing forces on Russia or China’s borders. They’re not planning to invade Russia using tank armies or any conventional WW2-style attack. They send soldiers to Russia and China’s borders to provoke a hostile reaction, then they use this hostile reaction to justify their own occupation of neighbouring countries and exorbitant military spending to protect against the “threat” they themselves created. They also hope to isolate the country by creating a ring of hostile countries around it that be used to enforce economic sanctions. They know that attacking a nuclear-armed country like Russia or China would be suicidal – they’re not that stupid.
The way they plan to destroy Russia is the same way they successfully did it twice in the last century – by recruiting traitors and useful idiots to attack and overthrow their own government so the Anglo-Zionists can install their own puppets and bring “democracy” to Russia. What they did to Ukraine is what they plan on doing to Russia, they openly brag about it. Russia needs to focus on preventing internal subversion of their country by foreign governments – that is the only real threat these countries pose. No amount of tank armies can protect you against that. It’s essentially a form of unconventional warfare, and it’s proved very successful. Pat Buchanan wrote a good article about it called “Putin and the Neo-Comintern” (referring to the Neocon-organised colour revolutions).
1. …..then they use this hostile reaction to justify their own occupation of neighbouring countries and exorbitant military spending to protect against the “threat” they themselves created….agree
2…….by recruiting traitors and useful idiots to attack and overthrow their own government so the Anglo-Zionists can install their own puppets…….agree and disagrre. The more they attack Putin, the more people gather around him. It is a psycho operation of internationalists sitting in the UN, transnational corporations. They are above the interests of the Anglo-Zionists. They use Anglo-Zionists in their plans. They also use the Holy Books of monotheism in their plans. When you look realistically at progres of what the Anglo-American New Age was supposed to be, it becomes pretty opposite – their downfall. Honey smeared around the mouth they believed in. In their arrogance, they fell into a trap, liberalism is tearing their world apart today. The Anglo-American world is no longer needed, the whole world has become America. The attempt to gather 5 eyes is the last attempt to preserve world.of them together. Anglo-Zionists are needed just for another thing, and that is the economic crisis and the war with division of spheres (two beasts from John’s revelation). After that comes the multipolar world and the Anglo-Zionists hegemoney with EU vasalls (ten hornes with a small one) go into the past. If Canada is taken by the Americans, and Australia and New Zealand are flooded with immigrants from Indonesia, Polynesia, and China, from these 5 would remain only two – Northern Americans and Englanders. They will become just one part of the multipolar world.
What will this multipolar world look like, antichristic or not, remains to be seen. But there are already indications :)).
Sending in a few rambo’s into the oppositions bee hive to be neutrilized may not be all that bad of an idea, we certainly dont need them here on the streets causing damage when the shtf, we have plenty of those already in waiting.
I absolutely agree that ‘global suicide’ is a great analogy, but I still worry that command in the empire doesn’t care about Amerikan life whatsoever, and will do it anyway.
We have seen a similar action last year. The assassination of Soleimani caused his interim replacement to be jumpy and order MH-17 to be shot down. It was a blatant act of war, and if Iran were strengthened enough to do any sort of counter operation (aside from MH-17, and attacking US bases) it would have done so.
I’m sorry Snow Leopard, but that is a gross over-simplification. It is precisely that type of generalization that leads to racism and hatred of people one does not even know. You will find that if you spend time socializing with many ordinary Americans they are wonderful, generous, kind and thoughtful people..much like the Russians. Please keep in mind, all the dispicable bullying and murder to promote US imperialistic ambitions is driven by a handful of terrible individuals who care nothing for life, or tge principles that made this country great. It’s quite truly that the rolling and increasing tyranny, coupled with the deliberate targeting of the white population (the majority) is seeing this country descend towards mayhem and destruction. Bit it is also a mistake to say the US is the only culprit hear. Every player in this game of death has blood on their hands. If only they had that blood on their conscience too.
Have you watched the millions killed by the US lately? The rape of several countries?There is only one country behaving like a remnant of the nazi system and it ain’t Russia or China.
A.S.K. Believe it or not I thought your feedback was helpful and to the point as far as I am concerned. Mea Culpa. I admit that I generalize too much and tend to be overly severe. As far as socializing with Americans go it is not my strong point and all I can say is that I am still working on it. Thank you for helping me see my weak spots,
This message is rather off-topic, but I’ll post it anyway. IMO, it compliments the discussion regarding the Atlantic Alliance’s meddling in Ukraine, and Russia’s inevitable response to that troublemaking.
As far as I’m concerned, the Atlantic Alliance’s gambit in Ukraine today simply recreates the WW2 front lines established the Wehrmacht’s plunge in the USSR during 1941-43.
The Atlantic Alliance has had a full seven years to act out the events of 1941-43 in Ukraine, given all their geopolitical and military actions in that country. Now it’s time for Russia to act out a reply of 1943-44. In other words, Russia’s got to give the West the boot.
the Atlantic Alliance’s gambit in Ukraine today simply recreates the WW2 front lines established the Wehrmacht’s plunge in the USSR during 1941-43.
If you are correct, that would mean that they have exactly ZERO understanding of how much warfare has evolved since WWII. Even from the late 80s early 90s modern warfare has completely changed.
The talking heads on the idiot box don’t seem to realize, but surely force planners in the USA at least must.
If not, then we are all in deep deep trouble…
I remind you that even under Trump the US military declined to have a war with Iran.
Are we to assume that either 1) all those who refused a war with Iran have been fired or 2) that they all changed their mind or 3) that nobody listens to them anymore?
I honestly don’t know.
Maybe somebody from the US military can answer this question (and I don’t mean just, say, a Marine NCO, but somebody with *actual experience* with US force planning)?
The odds were stacking up over there to either fold your hand and roll over to domestic issues, or go down fighting the cause on an international basis.
And there are still plenty of military heads that believe they are invincible and have the greater call.
This could go either way.
GW may be onto something…
We recently had discussions on Russian pre-positioning of troops at Yelnya (120 km from the Russo-Belarusian border and 240 km from Ukraine).
The garrison facilities here were upgraded and significant materiel were also moved here.
As our commentator Greifenberg recently said, Yelnya is a very symbolic location harkening back to WW2, with layered meanings conveyed to those crazies waxing nostalgic for Operation Barbarossa.
The Yelnya Offensive was the first significant setback to the Wehrmacht juggernaut during Barbarossa and the first recapture of the Soviet territory by the Red Army..
It was a huge morale boost to Soviets and traumatic memory to Nazis (and their present-day inheritors).
So psychologically they may be fighting according to their last [world] war, like the French digging their invincible Maginot line.
PS – This YT video provides a good overview of land army movements during WW2, part of a series:
Hi Andrei, thanks for a good overview of Russia’s military deployment. It is great that Russia has militarily secured its sovereignty!
These are challenging times for Russia and China, leading up to the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing . The Empire/U$A has surprised the world during Olympics at its adversaries (China & Russia). In 2008 (08.08.08) during the Beijing Summer Olympics it challenged Russia through Georgia and during the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi it challenged again through Ukraine. This time Russia seems to be prepared for surprises.
The Financial Empire wants to control the fuel of all power pillars (markets, media, machines, military …), their pricing and the global transportation infrastructure. The important fuels are money, moxie, energy (oil/gas), minerals… Money is the fuel for markets. The Empire has worked over centuries to capture & control these fuels. It wants to control Russia to achieve full spectrum dominance and own Russia’s resources through its proxies. Will Russia gain complete sovereignty?
“Who controls the food supply controls the people; who controls the energy can control whole continents; who controls money can control the world.”
A perspective on Russia’s grand strategy:
An interesting discussion on: “Is Russia poised to invade Ukraine?”
Careful!! Both the LSE and Center for the National Interest are western imperial propaganda outlets.
They might inadvertently let somebody say something truthful, but as a source I rank them as D-
The Saker, thanks for the alert. Agree on the NI & LSE. I found these conversations interesting and shared them without saying good or great to get feedback. Any thoughts on Dmitry Suslov. I will really appreciate thoughts from others about these two discussions.
What are the top three challenges between Russia & the Empire?
What are the top three challenges between Russia & the Empire?
There is only one challenge: will Russia find it in herself to atone for many dark episodes in her past and will she find the courage to resist the West *spiritually*.
Or will Russia think that prevailing militarily and economically is enough?
That is a question I don’t have an answer for.
The Saker, good one. Thanks. Let’s hope Russia will transcend spirituality and in other spheres!
It will be a great day in the history of humanity when nations are sovereign and serving their people. No more enslavement and imperialism.
Please add a comment – not just a link. Mod.
Andrei’s answer is right. Actually, it is the only one. We should pray that Russia can resist the West (Egypt, Babylon,…), but this is only possible via constant, sincere repentance for one’s past and present and inevitably ongoing sins. Otherwise we’re the same as them. And Russia knows that – it became ‘one of them’ because “it forgot God.”
The Sacred War
This is what resonates in Russian hearts and minds.
I think the Russian salvos of the first hour and the destruction in depth that will obliterate the Command and Control of the West will make this war short and devastating to the attackers.
Do you think that would extend, not only to the politicians who gave the orders, but to the banksters who own them and whose agenda they advance, and the media shills who make their evil palatable to the masses? Why bother killing the monkeys if you can reach the organ-grinders?
Yes, even Russian children are taught the sacrifices of their grandparents and sing the praises of Mother Russia!
Mama Rossiya Mama
I’m curious about how big is the stockpile of Russian weapons. For sure they still have massive numbers of Soviet-era missiles including P-700, P-800, P-900 which to this day are completely capable of performing their given task without the use of modern hypersonic weapons. Guaranteed they have thousands of good operational tanks and artillery. It’s possible that even these Soviet-era weapons are enough for the job, but what kind of numbers do they have of the modern hypersonic family? Are the hypersonics so important with such a massive stockpile of adequate old weapons? How much air force do they need if they have so much air defense and ground launched weaponry? How much damage can Europe , NATO and the US of Arrogance do?
I’m curious about how big is the stockpile of Russian weapons
VERY good question! And I don’t have the answer. All I can say is that with every passing day these stockpiles get bigger and bigger.
The good news is that Russia’s technological advance is very big indeed, and that motivation-wise there is no comparison.
But you are right, some Soviet-era are still in stock, precisely because they can be used (sometimes modified) even nowadays.
But this is one of the KEY reasons why Russia will delay the onset of war as far as she can.
One historical mistake is assuming that the next wars will be fought by the same principles as previous ones. If war happens now, I propose that it’ll happen this way: 1. A simple declaration of war by someone, probably based on an event. 2. Marginalisation of Russians living abroad in USA-aligned countries. 3. Attacks on infrastructural targets by both sides (no invasions, lots of propaganda and fear, overheating of diplomacy to try to slow down/ alter the course of the chain reaction). 4. Forceful attempts to pry open socio/economic/racial fractures in different involved territories at war, using internet technologies coordinated with terrorism or military actions. 5. Strategic use of economic instruments, also in coordination with military and social attacks.
Borders probably wouldn’t change much, at least in the opening stages, and Russia only has an advantage in actual shooting ability. War will let her use that advantage, but it’ll be too costly to march on Europe or the USA. The Russians don’t want to wreck, rebuild and then police the Baltics and Poland, for example. Russians would probably be very reluctant to fire directly on the USA, for fear of sending the situation out of control.
Russian strategic goals: defanging the Empire, resovreignization of its currency and political system, territorial integrity
Russian strategic strengths: military, resources and manufacturing base, connections with China
Russian strategic weaknesses: international economic and informational connections, terrorism threats from the Caucasus and Central Asia, lack of understanding between the government and people (clumsy actions by Roskomnadzor and Rospotrebnadzor show this), Putin’s mortality
Empire’s strategic goals: worldwide economic, political and cultural dominance, destruction of resistance in Russian and Chinese systems, possibly something darker and satanic
Empire’s strengths: worldwide information control, widespread military footprint, (almost) worldwide economic control, neoliberals and terrorists inside Russia
Empire’s weakness: an economic system that is a hyperinflation time bomb, racial and social tensions inside (those weaknesses may also be viewed as strengths, if you’re a controlling psychopath)
I’m not sure how important the 1st Guards Tank Army will be, because marching on Europe will be too costly, and NATO doesn’t have the might to march directly on Russia. I think that the Empire has other ways to try to turn Russia into a neoliberal, technocratic (read: high-tech dystopian), corporatist, indebted non-entity… all mostly by using the Russian population.
Your first paragraph is happening right now and has been for quite some time. Next is the kinetic syage.
You’re overestimating the Empire’s ability to stir internal unrest using neoliberals. They have the lowest popular support in the country.
The only internal threat is that of terrorism in the Caucasus and even by transporting ISIS terrorists through Azerbaijan to Russia. Probably, Russia has good security at place in this region, and also Chechnya is controlled by pro-Kremlin President Kadyrov.
Regarding Putin, I believe that an ex-KGB man knows how to handle his personal security.
Russia probably would march out of her borders but will surely obliterate the entire military structures of the US /NATO.
Our Host ask “Why?”
Evil appears as good in the minds of men whom the gods design to destroy… Saker old pal, they’re crazy. We can dissect this as an interaction of ideology and hysteresis or inertia, and understand it, but it comes down to they don’t know themselves and they do not know their enemy, the enemy they have chosen all by themselves – so they’ll lose. And since they are not-knowing, they may well get their war. An essential element in the creation of Conflict is the time it takes for a chump to realize he’s making a bigbig mistake.
King George demanded (1914) “Find a reason for war, at any cost” and evidently did not “know” the machine gun, or the German opponent, and lost the Empire (even though this took some time). Bigbig mistake.
Let us hope the chumps realize and correct their bigbig mistake very soon.
I am minded of Burroughs, who knew the US, and said : “Hustlers of the world beware the one mark you cannot beat, the mark inside”.
And of “The Confidence Man” (Melville) – which nobody reads, but describes the US, even then, as a vast racket and “confidence game”.
And that the Sun rises in the East, so to say…
I’ll just add one obvious point, not yet touched on. A war with Russia would have little public support in the collective West, which would decline to zero once the destruction started. However, I believe that if a war started it would have the complete support of Russian people.
correct on both points, imho!
I believe the Russian peoples will in fact fully support military action if it happens, But give a shout out to Western propaganda, in this case American propaganda. A survey by the Chicago Council (seems a neoliberal anti-Russian think tank) found that a majority of Americans support going to war with Russia over Ukraine. Here is the link:
Take a look at the graph on the web page. In 2014 30% of Americans supported going to war with Russia over the Ukraine. And now it is 50%. By the way, about same survey results for going to war with China over Taiwan. Give propagandists some time and they can drive that percentage even higher. BTW, about same sort of growth of negative views toward Russians and Chinese PEOPLE. Anti-Sino attitudes are really running deep to the extent that US government bodies both national and state wide will not protect Chinese and other Asians from racist attacks by African Americans.
Yes you are correct in your assumptions. Just one minor comment 60% of Americans have no idea where Russia is and 80% have no idea about Taiwan. Yes propaganda would be the way forward for the west until the news starts showing body bags, at some point they would have to. So for mine the west would have to strike hard and fast with little chance of success. Just my 2 cents, love reading the comments.
When Shoigu revealed that 10 US bombers have been carrying exercises to perform nuclear strikes on Russia from the east and the west at the same time he was talking to his Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe and Shoigu said that these bombers are a threat not only to Russia but to China also. Wei Fenghe replied: “I also support your vision of the military threat to our countries coming from the US”.
Then Sergei Shoigu and Wei Fenghe signed a roadmap for military cooperation.
What could include this roadmap? What will be the next developments of the cooperation between the Russian and Chinese armed forces?
I also read that General Valery Gerasimov discussed topical issues of international security by telephone with General Mark Milli.
I wish we could know what they said. But at least they are still talking to each other which is rather a good thing.
I think the west has lost it. They have had been lying to their own people and the world for too long. Now their leadership lost the sence of what is real and what is lying. Now they believe their own lyes to be true. Over the past few years, Mr putin said we will not repeat of what happened in inside Russia in WW2. Then in another speach he said what good is the world without Russia? If they were to try anything stupid, We will be martyrs and go to heaven and they burn in hell. I’m paraphrasing here.
But the west arrogance and hubris precludes them from taking anyone seriously. They make friends and enemies at will. The real enemy they have have it inside their heads.
What you said is the main danger of our time.
I think the same. Western leaders do not make any difference between propaganda and reality and their believe their own lies. That’s why I think they will keep escalating to the point of triggering at least a clash and possibly a war.
Rational people see that as impossible because it’s extremely dangerous. But for a big part of the western leaders it’s not because they see themselves as invincible. They also think that if they push hard enough with their threats and sanctions Russia will make concessions. That’s why I think they escalate al the time. They see themselves as invincible so they are likely thinking Russia is bluffing. It doesn’t make sense fighting them because they are the best the strongest and so on so the Russian must be bluffing. I think that’s their mindset.
What-Who are the special interests behind the War against Russia?
All the western ruling elites, as a class in the Marxist sense of the word.
The following movie dramatizes the reality of fascist aggression during the invasion of Belarus in WWll and the transformation of a teenager witness to unspeakable atrocities. These events are family history of millions of Russians. Only a fool would test the resolve of such people now armed with their current weapons. The posturing of NATO and the US is beyond ludicrous.
Same movie with better picture and sound quality https://youtu.be/UkkJZweYaLI
1…….Here is another very revealing factoid: during the 90s, Russia did not have a single division-size fully manned unit deployed west of Moscow…….If NATO did not attack Russia then or divide it why would it attack today? This is at the level of Hitler’s advisers who ended up killed.
2. …. full 3rd of the population of Bielorussia. …. I2 Dinaric genetics you find in Serbs, we also had similar losses …..Slava im
If NATO did not attack Russia then or divide it why would it attack today?
Because in their worst nightmares the leaders of the West could not imagine modern Russia in the distance 90s.
They were too busy declaring themselves “victorious” and believing that they “defeated” the Soviet Union
Today, however, they might have no other option left to retain power as the West, collectively, has collapsed and his breaking at all its seams…
The West had no reason to attack in the 90s. Yeltsin was in power back then and he allowed the West to happily plunder & control Russia…
Totally valid point Sg!
I disagree. You are saying that Russia failed so much in the 90s that all their services collapsed, including the KGB? Impossible. It was a planned process since the time of Andropov, bringing the people like Gorbachev and later Yeltsin. They weakened army deliberately, since Afganistan. While it was the only asset that can stop dissolving proces. The same was true for yugoslav army. Demotivation, the process of bringing in bad staff. The services have not failed, or not been disbanded, they have been “multilateraly” transformed. The ideologues of the international have not stopped being internationalists. They decided to disintegrate the USSR and Russia, still part of the international, could not keep the “national” Russian “administrative” world, and let the others go. Or could she? Was it a consequence of the leadership’s decisions for the Russian people to break up. They thought they would develop better and faster, but it turned out to be incorrect. Oligarchy needed it exactly, to grease their pockets and get powerful for new world to come. China is a different case, there they did not have so much to steal in the eighties, and also China did not allow to be dissolved in the pieces. Nor did it allow itself to give up tradition and call herself anything other than the Chinese state. From begining. Can a parallel be drawn between the activities of the service in the USSR and Yugoslavia? Absolutely. But these of ours are aimed to divide the Serbs into their constituent parts. Russia, by contrast, is needed as one of the multilateral pillars, but a pillar they control.
Sorry, Yeltsin’s argument does not stand. Also Milosevic was a “factor of stability” in our country, Cosic, Kadijevic, etc. They gave Krajina and 30% of Republika Srpska. So the Serbian territory was divided. They fear us more than the Russians? Or are they preparing a different fate for us? You’re not going to tell me that postmaidan yellow government of Tadic was not the same as yellow Yeltsin? They took Kosovo and today in Vucic era they are working on the separation of Vojvodina and Raska, Torlac area.
I personally think that they need Russia, without it the MIC as the largest industry makes no money. International organistaions, like the UN needs it. Balance of power. China is not yet a military, but only economic giant. They need it also to control Europe east wing. After the two world wars, I don’t think Americans or eather big bosses wil allow them to expand eastward, which would surely happen if Russia fell apart. In Europe, there is no need ofor the right of exceptionality after Hitler, but of liberalism. The question is why the EU did not remain divided, but united, against the will of the people who live there. Eg the Lisbon Treaty. I think the Masters plan is to create multipolar unions “of likes” that will make it easier to share NWO tasks. Unions “of the same” on the scale gradation of the boss pyramid. That America has done its job and that is why it is sinking. The whole world has become much like America. The lead role of “special one” is no longer needed. The fight against liberal rights are just smearing the eyes of the public.The way the west is being further destroyed and aligned with others on the scale of equals. What matters is that what Russia and China support, what the rest of the world supports along with the Anglo-Americans. Strategic important agreements. The American exceptionality will, with the economic crisis and the war, leave also to the past, as Hitler did. Even Israel will end up the same. Attempts by some in Angloamerican world to maintain themselves as the special hegemon of the world are not justified anymore by the bosses themselves because the rest of the world does what they want. There are no more ideologies and boundaries. In any case, in my opinion, conditions are being created for Russia to regain control of the parts it will represent. Man did not believe that he would experience so many stupid moves by certain eastern governments. This is no accident.
Let me remind you, after the demonstrations and chaos they have created all over the world, they will not give up the newly acquired control, and in order to finish the job, they need “military administration”. Where the civil rules of the Constitution do not apply. So war is inevitable for the division of spheres, the collapse of Anglo-American hegemony, for a new reorganization of the UN and the imposition of the will of one world government on the planet. Whether some members wanted it or not. Order from the chaos.
Our Saker wrote, “How completely out of touch with reality can western leaders be?”
That is one crux of the problem and the “intelligence” being fed to the Washington, DC politicos by the U.S. Department of War analysts and their subservient think tanks (e.g., Rand Corporation) is one of denial concerning the military capabilities of the Russian Federation and China.
Case in point … I watch a daily streaming website that addresses the internal corruption of Washington, DC politics dealing with the 2020 presidential election, the human invasion crossing the U.S. southern border and the pandemic mandates being imposed upon citizens across the U.S.
Sadly, the host of this website has a poor understanding of the international tensions occurring in Eastern Europe and Taiwan. He has invited Erik Prince of Academi mercenary fame on his show and Prince “doubts the accuracy” of hypersonic missile technology built by Russia and China. Prince gets his information from either the CIA or sources in the Pentagon.
That tells me that influential men in Washington, DC are being misled due to poor intelligence reconnaissance or deliberately, to lull them and the EU into a false sense of security about the U.S. Military and NATO’s ability to effectively prosecute war against Russia or China.
The Russian government has tried to educate the western powers by diplomacy and the exercise of commonsense but to no avail. What more can President Putin do to stop these fools from annihilating themselves?
Perhaps when Putin talks with Biden he can give the U.S. President a lesson in history about Order No. 227 during World War II that rallied the Russian people to defend Leningrad at all costs.
“Not one step backward,” is Putin’s red line for today and woe to those who dare cross it.
Please excuse me if this is in bad taste> “”Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” (Mike Tyson) ”
The problem with this is that the other guy might not react the way you prefer. Better not fight.
Recalling 1963…and USSR Submarine B-59…one “vote” from nuclear war. They were actually under attack…
Sooner or later there’s going to be a crises, with violence. And Uncle Sam is going to have his crises.
SOLNECHNOGORSK /Moscow Region/, August 10. /TASS/. Around 170 battalion tactical groups are operational in the Russian Army today, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said on Tuesday.
“Today we actually have constant alert troops. Today we have no forces that we need to gather and find. All the troops are on constant alert. We have formations called battalion tactical groups. These are the forces that are ready for deployment in an hour after an alert signal. We have 168 such groups today and this is a very high figure,” the defense chief said at the Territory of Senses educational youth forum.
A battalion tactical group is a temporary operationally flexible formation set up on the basis of a battalion and attached artillery, air defense, engineering and logistics support units for combat operations as part of motor rifle and tank brigades. Aviation groups, special operations forces and other units can also be attached to a battalion tactical group to accomplish assigned missions.
It’s all true and your description of BTG is correct.
However, I think that the Russian counter-attack will be primarily executed with standoff weapons.
The BTG are here to participate, if needed, in operational-level manoeuver subunits and, primarily, to deal with any possible land attack from the Ukies and co. Obviously, they are also available as a reserve force if needed.
The bottom line is this: 170 battalion tactical groups is a huge and extremely flexible force.
My very amateurish opinions are purely speculative and based on circumstantial and contextual matters. That said, I have never regarded Nato as engaged in serious military aims against any peer state, above all Russia. What motivates them are essentially bureaucratic aims to maximise their prospects in line with funding aims, along with the hype circulated by the ‘think tanks’, media, the political buzz. The leadership is clearly a play of puppets. Real leadership is elsewhere; it’s basically theatre. As well, if they were planning a serious attack we’d see the important assets positioned accordingly. What they are serious about is essentially political. America remains an occupation power in Europe after 76 years and directly manages it’s vassal intelligence agencies along with the media and large swaths of the political class (with paper bags full of money – PCR). During the Cold War this had some justification in the eyes of many Europeans but that justification disappeared 30 years ago while the occupation remained. But now another change is afoot. Now China has become America’s main enemy and there are substantial elements in the American political establishment who want to reduce assets and expenditures in Europe and the Middle East in favour of the new ‘pivot’ policy. This creates a serious problem. The Atlanticist leaders want to wind down their expenses and commitments but maintain the control over Europe that they’ve enjoyed since the close of the Second War. To this end they need to heighten tensions with Russia as a means of maintaining the discipline over the whole of Europe that America had hitherto exercised. I believe the thinking is that only heightened tensions with Russia will serve the purpose of uniting Europe as a militant force subject to continued Nato command. A ‘full’ American presence does not require the tension but an absent or withdrawn hegemon does. But in any case the nub of the matter is this ‘united’.
We need to realise that the present European ‘Union’ is an historic anomaly and was only achieved by American external discipline. The Sun King, Napoleon, and Hitler failed to achieve the goal of a restored empire lost long ago by the Habsburg’s in 1648. So then, what becomes of this ‘Europe’ once America withdraws? And keep in mind that for the Atlanticists European unity is a must, a Europe amenable to Nato command and therefore American control. As America very gradually recedes there’s talk of a European army with French and German divisions at it’s core. Fine. But who is foolish enough to expect that these political lightweights have what it takes to forge the fractious continent into any sort of real and enduring unity? Greater and more ruthless men have tried. But be that as it may, there’s this problem. And the obvious solution to the problem involves heightened tensions with Russia to elicit the fear needed to impose overall control. This is why I do not think there is going to be any real relaxation or defusing of tensions. The real aim of the military theatre is political and has nothing to do with Russia. It’s about Europe and continued control of Europe even as the hegemon recedes. The politics of this strategy of tension are predicated upon considerations that cannot be publicly acknowledged and so we have yet another whirlwind of lies and thus confusion. But, of course, that’s how they want it; they need it to be that way. Clarity does not serve their purposes.
To the point then. Russian attempts to live peacefully and diplomatically with its Western neighbours is an exercise in futility. The tensions, sanctions, and theatre will continue for reasons internal to the dynamics of the West itself. Therefore Russia has little to lose by counterattacking if the Ukrainians go ahead with their plans to attack. I’d opine that Russian leadership and diplomacy should be concerned with the basically Asiatic world it is presently in the process of reviving. That is the international opinion that counts.
In the above paragraph (last one) I used the term ‘counterattack’ too lightly. What I believe would be best would be to use standoff weapons to dissuade the Ukrainian military units from any sort of advance. But it must be done without ground assaults in Ukrainian territorial space otherwise the whole aim of the West would be achieved, namely, a conflict between Ukraine and Russia as distinct from a civil war within the Ukraine itself. This is exactly what they are trying to provoke. I think it’s important that Russia not budge an inch from their position on Minsk.
This all looks like to me as if NATO is setting up a show (with all the bells and whistles) to finally throw Ukraine under the bus.
– NATO knows that the Ukraine wants to start a war in the Donbas and is pushing Ukrainian forces to attack the Donbas, giving them weapons and support (like the Javelin anti-tank missiles, etc.).
– NATO knows how the Russians will react to this escalation, and is therefore premetivally trying to internationally frame Russia as if it is the aggressor in order to say that (1) the Ukrainians had to take action because the Russians were supposedly amassing their troops on the border and (2) to tell everyone after the confrontation that “you see, Russians started it”, “they are the agressors”.
Ukraine is being sacrificed to create tensions for Russia, force Russia to act and make Russia look like the agressor, while at the same time getting rid of this Western headache called the Ukraine. Its a win-win situation from an anti-Russian stand point.
All of what you say here is probably true. The trouble for the US/NATO is if they actually get their wish with all this. Then what?
The West has largely shot their load with regard to sanctions against Russia and China. What more can they realistically add and how much more pain can they inflict?
Same with public relations. The western populations have largely been propagandized to the point of immunity (vaccinated, to use the popular term of the day), such that any further anti-Russian propaganda largely falls on deaf ears. As if public opinion in the west matters in the least anyway.
Both of which indicate – to me at least – that western leaders are once again engaging in a high stakes game of passive/aggressive nuclear brinksmanship, albeit writ small and completely deniable if it fails. If the Russians fail to take the bait, oh well, on to the next move. But if they do, the worst case being that once again that the Russians escalate first, but then think better of it, and become the sane ones in the room who choose to blink first. Advantage DC. The best case scenario being limited nuclear war on Russian and European territory, with the US remaining standing – once again, a la WWII – to capitalize on the mess afterward. Yes indeed, old capitalist dreams die hard!
For the fat-assed pols and generals safely ensconced in their compounds in suburban DC, I’m sure this seems like an entirely sane and rational strategy, especially since they’ve now got the domestic population safely under control with all their various and sundry Covid concerns.
I truly hope Putin plants a boot in the backside of NATO
Do you realize the number of people which will die, be maimed and otherwise left destitute if this happens????
Please think about them first and foremost.
“Which makes me wonder, what did the leaders of the Empire expect the Russians to do?”
They expected the Russians to adopt and embrace the criminality at the core of the now (perhaps always?) corrupted western empire model — a la Yeltsin & similar. More vodka, no religion, depressing cynicism, cultural and border dissolution. The new ‘wild west’ for colonial sport and exploitation etc.
Unfortunately for their plans, after a good start something at the core of Russian life stood up and reassembled itself into a viable existence. An alternative in numerous ways that could say “No” and with the capacity to eventually say there was no need for a world without Russia. That is the existential challenge (of Law) to the criminal outlaw class that has creep over and bleached the western world like crown of thorns starfish on a great barrier reef.
Fundamentally, they expected Russians to roll over and take it from the new emerging class of mendacity being encultured by ‘westernism’ — something as an opportunity that began (perhaps naturally) with the seductions of 1960/70’s music (Beatles etc) and became little more than a pox-ridden blanket thrown to the natives with a knowing sneer (and a backroom party on how to divide the goods once the inhabitants died off).
What has saved Russia (to this point)? Well, the rise and discipline of V. Putin and the people who gathered around him. What was not factored into the various western schemes and strategies was the essential difference between a convenient national construct and a civilization ethos. China is also exhibiting a similar come back on that larger scale.
So, what did the leaders of the Empire expect the Russians to do now?
Firstly, they are not leaders, but rather just sock puppets for various (not so) invisible hands.
Secondly, they expect them to attack back (in self-defence) in a manner that can be spun to domestic audiences as world-war worthy response. They are structurally driven by Thanatos logic. They expect to be able to caste Putin as the new Hitler and China as the new Japan. Because of the first point they have no creative power beyond simply repeating the same old scripts. Smash the game board rather than concede defeat and transform beyond crime.
What will the Russians do?
That is for them to decide — the cost of having agency (which the European & Japanese lap-dogs have sold).
However, if 20th century history is any guide, and they really do want to exist as a civilizational entity beyond the fight, then if/when they do respond (beyond the minimal) they had better go all in for a final defeat of this criminality that has oozed itself into the western domains. Their success depends on having the capacity to write the future history books. May they find a way of peace, but there is a strong sense of the angry prophet casting the money-changers out of the temple in the air at the moment.
i live in usa, like Uri Zhivago, i have not left. The USA is being led & pushed into provoking Russia. When there is no choice left, Russia, along with China, will destroy the USA ; you cannot blame them except maybe for bringing this all to pass going back 100 years. The people here are demoralized and proud of it. As Pres Putin said, they are unaware of the thermonuclear.threat. I have been watching the usa antagonize Russia for ten years now. The bully is going to get its @$$ kicked and i think that is what the deep state and globalists want- It also appears that Pres Putin knows this, but what choice does he have? The idiots are staging for war in a way that Russia has no existential alternative. Just know that many of “we the people” are against all this NATO crap but are on the boat that’s going to get nuked. Even if the usa landmass isnt nuked, so Russia and China can divvy it up and take the spoils, it will still be the end of the thing. Judgement.
“Even if the usa landmass isnt nuked, so Russia and China can divvy it up and take the spoils, it will still be the end of the thing.”
Not at all. What would Russia want? And China already owns much of it as the major creditor — and they only want to trade.
No, your future in that set of scenarios is speaking Spanish and dancing Mexican. Small rural pockets will remain living like the Amish. The rest will be self judgement and many nights of long knives as the traitors are disbatched to their next lives. Once the madness and retribution subsides then a new spring will emerge. Too hard to say what, but it will be most definitely ‘post-empire’.
in other words: Understand: This is by design. Russia knows this. This level of suicidal insanity by the west and USA in particular is like Kipling’s King Louie. Thing is, its not suicide- the deep state is wanting “death by cop” for the usa, using Russia and China; then there’s more- Russia and China are not the victors- there’s life after USA’s overthrow- and they are also on the block- they must know this.
Looking at all the riots and genuine anger that the western serfs feel for their current leadership maybe there is some hope that they will revolt and execute the psychopathic scum. I truly believe that is the only viable course of action for the poor saps living in the west.
Thank you, Andrei! I see it from good versus evil paradigm. The Neocons (epitomy of evil) were rejoicing in 1990 that Russia was finished after USSR collapsed (and rightly so because communism is only good for Boyz at the top), and thought they could divvy up the vast resources of Motherland between their multinational corporations (which have been the fronts for the elite in the wars for the past 300 years)… just as they thought they could break up Iraq into pieces and have the Crude Oil for themselves.
Since Russia returned to it’s Orthodox Christian roots, God Almighty has blessed them with a leader who is a giant amongst false leaders in the world. Sheikh Imran Hosein even referred to President Putin as modern-day Dhul Qarnain…one of the two powerful, righteous leaders (the other being Prophet Soloman peace be upon him) in the world..who commanded vast terrorities.
It is by God Almighty’s favour that HE Mighty and Majestic has put Russia in such a powerful but patient position (with such advanced weapon like Kinjhal, Avangaard and Sarmat) to teach the devil-worshippers in Western leadership a lesson.
Sheikh Imran Hosein has mentioned in a private session that those nations that make a mockery of the Divine institution of marriage between a man and a woman will be destroyed this time.
I am sure those people in the West, who feel the oppression of Covid deathshot/clotshot mandates from the leadership, will welcome the Russian move to liberate them from oppression. God Willing!
God Almighty is in Charge of the Universe, and HE Mighty and Majestic will bring evil to it’s knees using HIS good agent… Russia, President Putin and Orthodox Christianity…and they will pave the way for Imam Al Mehdi (from the lineage of Prophet Muhammad peace and blessings be upon him) to rule Justly over the entire World…who in turn will pave the way and positively identify Prophet Jesus, peace be upon him, who will rule the world Justly for 40 years, God Willing!
I would leave God Almighty out of equation.
History of the Human Race teaches us one thing, the religion so far has been the biggest killer of our kinds.
Either we fight or prevail using an intellect.
So true that!
Killing in the name of God while monetising another’s Sovereign resources is sanction free exempt.
Only a cull of the Ruling Elite Classes will do, nothing less, can save this toxic planet/existence.
A whole 40 years?
She couldnt afford him, lets go for 400 instead and take the long road home.
Nothing like a closet full of fears to keep the sheeple in line. In this world all flesh and blood eventually dies from something. It could be a front row seat at ground zero or falling off a cliff while taking a selfie or whatever so why worry. We all have an appointed time and no way to avoid it.
Hi Andrei – great article as always
I just loved Andrei Martyanov’s article too – I hope you don’t mind me posting the last paragraph
” … And that is why Milley and Gerasimov spoke to each-other. Russia’s and America’s war experiences can not be compared, Russian one dwarfs that of the United States both in scale, scope and in quality of enemies Russians fought in defense of their country. With the exception of the magnificent US victory in the Pacific in WW II, most of US military experience is that of an expeditionary force designed to fight utterly inferior opponent, and even here the American record is not impressive. But, as I am on record non-stop, the US is ungovernable and is immersed in the internal life-and-death struggle between several oligarchic clans which do not give a rat’s ass about the well-being of the majority of Americans, most of who are just decent folks who want to live their lives, and about once beautiful country which was the envy of the world.
the information you have provided is essential to a understanding of the Russian perspective post world war 11 .
So I want to thank you, for your help and patience .
and peace is preferable to war , but the road as been beyond our combined will.so perhaps all us can say with truth in our hearts , hey America will fight also , but is this what we want. wars are not equal , some are harmed more than others ( children) .When I look at the stars I see promise.
But all sides are veiled , we beat war drums so we can call ourselves brave and fearless.
our leaders raise mighty armies for whose gain, for who , for who .
the answer is written on the wind . the Russian people have shown themselves through out history as worthy warriors and so have many people in history, so what is the point, can we just work together for progress of all earths people, and attain the stars and forget about greed and power and at last say one people one earth
if Russia supplies 90 percent of natural gas to Europe for winter heat, would this make war impossible? we are all being played, too much going on behind ‘the curtain,” both literally and figuratively. have a blessed Thanksgiving to all. rs
Yet another excellent piece from Saker which, in very very simple language explained what awaits the UkroNazi and their masters.
I came across a number of comments that seriously discussed the situation – one among them mentioned about 180 flexible battalions on Russian defense forces that can be mobilized by an hour or two. With the kind of non-nuclear armaments possesed by Russia (and, to some extent, China) no rational military chief would like to start a shooting war against Russia.
There lies the main problem. USA Deep State, always in delusion, might be thinking (1) let UkroNazi and PolishHyena create a urban geurilla nightmare in Belorossia-Crimea-Donbass using NATO supplied arms, while NATO trains and guides them… OR … (2) let NATO spearhead a simultaneous nuclear attack on say, 10 largest urban and industrial centres of Russia to force surrender of Russian leadership.
180 Russian battalions with ultra-modern toys, would be, in reality, an excessive force projection if the pathetic state of affairs of the military forces of European countries are considered… Still Russia has to plan for:
(1) the possibility of nuclear first strike, and how to counter the same (i’m surè, computerised simulations are done) as a defensive measure
(2) in case of a surprise nuclear first strike what would be Russian response as offensive measure
(3) bring China on the equation – Chinese leadership is fully aware that , if Russia capitulates, China would be the next. A simultaneous offense (to secure specific targets of interest), probably, would be the best option for both
(4) Russia (and China) needs to start building an alternate ‘capital’ to tun administration. Both should select central Asia as alt-capital
(5) Russia (and China) needs to make detail plans for ‘war economy’ in all respect – food, energy, communication, armaments, education being the tôp 5 areas
Whatever happens now or in the future, I am confident that Russia (with Putin, Shoigu and Lavrov) will do the right move, not just for Russia but for the rest of the sane humanity.
If war happens, it will be quick and surgical.
The planet has serious economic, environmental and sanitary problems, which have to be solved globally and democratically without obstruction/interference of former or dying empires.
Cheers from France.
Greetings from Tanzania
Everything that currently seems to be happening in terms of Russia being poked prodded and teased reminds me of an old quote I believe to be anonymous.
“The most terrifying force of death comes from the hands of ‘ Men who wanted to be left Alone’
They try,so very hard to mind their own business and provide for those they love.
They resist every impulse to fight back, knowing the forced and permanent change of life that will come from it.
They know the moment they fight back, their lives as they have lived them, are over.
The moment the ‘ Men who wanted to be left Alone’ are forced to fight back, it is a small form of suicide. They are literally killing off who they used to be.
Which is why, when forced to take up violence, these ‘ Men who wanted to be left Alone’, fight with unholy vengeance against those who murdered there former lives.
They fight with raw hate, and a drive that cannot be fathomed by those who merely play- act at politics and terror.
TRUE TERROR will arrive at the Lefts door, and they will cry, scream, and beg for mercy, but it will fall on deaf ears.”
It’s sort of how these things end.
Thanks for this website Andrei and all the moderators.
Dear Saker, you are mentioning with great accuracy the irrational aspects of the apparent confrontation.The rational undertow is hidden or not sufficiently exposed like all things of Talmudic essence: Firstly, a big conflagration is needed to assure some “extension” to expiry date of the Kasher ingredient called the US dollar. Secondly, Ukraine is considered by the Western planners to be the sacrificial animal that will reflect attention from the failing, dead-end, capitalistic construct of the whole West. Thirdly, the day Russia makes a reactive military move will be considered its first defeat: hence, the repeated attempts, with no end in sight, to push her around.
The US’s refusal to accept reality in Ukraine could get a lot of people killed.
Is Biden really prepared to send young American men and women to fight and die over Ukraine? This kind of rhetoric from the Biden administration does not serve US interests and counterproductively increases the risk of the United States being dragged into a war with Russia.
Since JFK, not a single ”president’ has any power concerning a war, sanctions(acts of war), only the Deep State which is the Gov of continuity, taking care of the interests of the MIC/Wall Street, not of the people.
Elections are a joke, dems or gop also.One party, two factions, pure marketing.
Same joke in Europe as the non elected junta of Brussels decides every aspects of life.
It is very strange (to say the least), that big countries like Germany and France accepted to lose all their sovereignty.
Excellent analysis as always from the Saker himself and the community but call me crazy but I just don’t see how NATO (US & Europe) can mount any real threat as recent history teaches us that any conflict will be short lived due to lack of resources and logistics and attacking Belarus-Russia-China won’t be a cake walk.
I don’t see how the US and its European foot soldiers can move the hundreds of thousands of troops to the battle front undetected and once any real threat to Russia begins then I predict things to get hot very quickly and as insane as the Establishment is I don’t see them risking Nuclear War striking Russian assets inside Russia or Belarus.
Remember the logistical nightmare of Desert Storm, Kosovo War where NATO quickly ran out of TH Cruise Missiles and bulked at any land invasion, not to mention Iraq 2003 where they face very little real resistance and Air Superiority will become void quickly once Russia-Belarus close all air space with a NFZ deep inside NATO territory.
Nobody in Europe wants to deal with a conflict as economies and society struggles post pandemic and as much as NATO acts as if its training and arming the Ukronazi’s they’re no match for Donbass fighters and Russia will offer logistical and strategic support if the Minsk Accords are officially broken but I just can’t see things getting serious as Russian has no choice but to retaliate as does China and West just isn’t prepared to offer any meaningful fight.
I wouldn’t dismiss NATO’s successes so far. They have added to their organisation former Warsaw Pact countries, even former members of the USSR (Baltic states) and some former members of non-aligner Yugoslavia and are now closer to the Russian border than ever before. They have long been on the offensive adding numerous new forces and populations to their alliance. Obviously this should have been countered long ago as clearly this state of affair brings war closer. The West will not let up and sooner or later Russia will be faced with either joining the Wests on West’s own terms or fighting for sovereign survival.
You’re overestimating NATO. Numbers doesn’t matter when Russia has an overwhelming advantage in terms of technology. Add to that a tenacious fighting force which would dk anything to stop Russian people suffering like in the WW 2. On the contrary, NATO armies don’t have any unity, and as shown in Afghanistan, once the US suffers and backs down, other NATO countries also run like dogs.
If a UFO or 10 is hurtling towards your airspace, why not nullify it and ask questions later?
The recent Rittenhouse case verdict in the USA would suggest that reasonable self-defence is a valid response.
I hope that this article has cleared up any notions that Russia, China, and Iran are part of some global cabal which iunder the aegis and includes the whole North Atlantic bloc and NATO. The difference is plain to see. Russia, China and Iran are SOVEREIGN STATES, and NATO is an American OCCUPIED ZONE: politically, economically, culturally and militarily. There will be no global world order as envisaged by the day dreamers of the west.
It’s good that you say this.
This is probably the canard that confuses most, the most, and is pushed in rarified circles, that still call themselves alternative thinkers. It just drives me to distraction, because the idea of this global cabal is so inculcated, that one does not even try to lift it.
Discussing the actions (in the widest sense of meaning) of visible and audible Western civilian and military “leaders” will not lead to reasonable conclusions as they are only mouthpieces without real agency. The real agency ultimately is with the masters of the Western financial system who also control the corporations. They have their mansions and palaces in the UK, USA, Switzerland, France but NOT in Russia or China.
If these people were to believe that they can physically survive and win the war against Russia AND China (now it’s always against both) there would be this war because their financial system is only viable depending on free exploitation of the world’s natural resources.
Putin hinted in no uncertain terms that these decision makers are in the crosshairs in the case of aggression against Russia and Russia has the means to kill them where ever they may hide. That’s a strategic difference between earlier wars and today’s situation – the profiteers from war will not get away unharmed. So there will be no war of the West against Russia/China. But the posturing and threatening will continue in order to keep the allies toeing the line and thus the financial system alive as long as possible.
The American fools are cocky. They feel confident that with every military in Europe enthusiastically backing them against expansionist Russia, from mighty Montenegro and North Macedonia to big bad nuclear Britain and France itching to prove their worth to the glorious American cause, that it will be a cakewalk from Karkhov to St. Petersburg and Moscow–a veritable Sunday pleasure drive. Somehow, well, mostly because Americans as a species are intellectually deficient and willfully ill-informed, our great leaders also gloat over their delusions that most American citizens perceive Russia as the incessant aggressor every step of the way through this 8-year escalation of tensions and will fully support whatever level of hostilities is necessary to break the back of that rogue country under the world’s modern-day Hitler.
In other words, Americans have now come round to Hillary Clinton’s way of thinking about taking this country into a world war. I guess they didn’t get their fix of adrenalin under Trump who could not bring himself to commit to war with Russia or China. Might as well give the totally embarrassing Biden and Harris their pink slips and swear in the genuine Hitlery to go mano a mano with so-called Putler.
Caitlin Johnstone, like the Saker, is never afraid to speak the truth and she digs up the polling data underscoring America’s linear trend since 2014 directly into the throes of war fever (a war that envisages concomitant conflict against both Russia and China) in her latest daily column. With great regret, says Johnstone, “Half of Americans would now reportedly favor going to war against Russia in defense of Ukraine and a majority would now favor going to war with China in defense of Taiwan. These drastic spikes in opinion are not an accident; the consent has been forcefully manufactured by an aggressive propaganda campaign against those two nations. They are not manufacturing that consent for fun; they are doing it for a reason.” They are dead serious about releasing massive amounts of stored Gibbs free energy and greatly inflating the entropy levels across the face of the earth to impose their will against their sworn enemies from the East. Even without Physics 101 everyone knows what that means.
I don’t think I can reproduce the data plots in graphic form here, but let me just quote the source that Johnstone employs. Polling question: “There has been some discussion about the circumstances that might justify using U.S. troops in other parts of the world. Please give your opinion about some situations. Would you favor or oppose the use of U.S. troops if Russia invades the rest of Ukraine?” [Data Plot Shown] Overall support for such action has increased from 30% in 2014 to 52% today. Opposition has dropped from 68% to 48% today. “This growing support has occurred across partisan lines. Today, a majority of Democrats (54%) support sending U.S. troops to defend Ukraine, up from 39 percent in 2017. Over the same period, support has risen 10 percentage points among Republicans (51%, up from 41%), and eight percentage points among Independents (46%, up from 38%).” We all know that once the shooting starts support will skyrocket to 80 or 90 percent and will not diminish until most of the combatants and innocent bystanders are all dead. So, you can see how effectively incessant demonizing of the other side works like a charm every time, no matter they are the only rational and restrained party to the debate. With the right media optics, Hillary could even run as the peace candidate while imposing a no-live zone over the entire other side of the planet.
Dear saker, let me repeat a concept that I have already expressed by commenting on the article “Will the upcoming Putin-Biden summit defuse the situation?”: the American deep state does not really want to attack Russia, on the contrary, they want to continually provoke it and keep it under pressure to to weaken it as much as possible; and, as you know, on the western front it can count on numerous proxies who mortally hate the Russians.
In 2014, the mix of border provocation and massive economic pressures was aimed at fostering a color revolution in Russia that would bring a Russian leadership obedient to Western interests to power and, therefore, isolate China: the result was a total failure. Russia has strengthened its economy by making it less linked to the west and has strengthened its ties with China.
Nowadays the goals of the American deep state are much less ambitious:
1. Explore a weakness of a strategic rival: historically the borders of Russia (like those of almost every state in central and eastern Europe) are very fluid with intertwining populations characterized culturally, if not ethnically, by ancestral rivalries. Dragging Russia into that crucible would weaken it severely and, what is worse, without any negative consequences for the United States and with very little expenditure (Russia cannot respond symmetrically because US borders are much quieter).
2. Create some headaches for any Russian leadership, however strong and determined it may be, because the problem of discrimination against Russian minorities remains unavoidable also for Putin
3. Slow down the inevitable shift of the center of gravity of the Russian state to the east which leads to the consequent strengthening of ties between Russia and Asian allies (in other words the Eurasian continental bloc, ie the worst nightmare for the maritime powers)
4. Finally keep the eastern and central European allies within a single alliance thanks to a common enemy; without the Russian archenemy, the rivalries between states such as Lithuania, Poland, Hungary (just to name the main ones) would deflate within a few months.
In essence it is the policy more or less followed by the British Empire in the nineteenth century.
Obviously the risks associated with these continuous provocations are very high (the United States anyway has the possibility of withdrawing at the last moment, letting the consequences fall on the proxies), but the stakes are even higher: the end of American dominance (and, more generally, of the western dominance) on the rest of the world. In other words, the end of the West.
P.S. you could answer me that the end of American dominance is something already done due to the emergence of China as a great economic and technological power, but, evidently, any American leadership (good or bad it may be: and those of the last twenty years are certainly not good) has only one way to go: buy time. I mean that in 2014 the Americans really thought they were winning the clash with their rivals (I am referring to the Chinese because Russia was absolutely undervalued), today they just try, in every way, to buy time
“the American deep state does not really want to attack Russia, on the contrary, they want to continually provoke it and keep it under pressure to to weaken it as much as possible; and, as you know, on the western front it can count on numerous proxies who mortally hate the Russians.”
Yes, I agree with you. It seems quite obvious to me. The Saker himself called this strategy ‘Death by thousand cuts’. There are, however, several problems with this strategy to deal with Russia, it rests upon two key conditions, the way I see it:
1) Russia would need to be isolated economically, almost completely
2) Time would need to work in favor of the US/Collective West
Neither of these two conditions is currently met. Asia has displaced the USA/Europe as the economic center of the world, meaning that Russia has a huge and lucrative market to turn to and doesn’t really depend on Western markets anymore. As for number 2, we all know time does not work in favor of the collective West, just the contrary.
Dragging Russia into conflict has also failed (for now) but the West is now doubling down to make it happen. The West’s strategy against Russia has failed and it may prompt them to do something stupid, they are not accustomed to losing, and the leaders of civilization built on hubris, greed, and violence might prefer to commit suicide rather than face the consequences of their actions. Let’s hope their doom is not going to mean the doom of all of us.
Mairon you are right when you say that time does not work for the United States, but you must not forget that the dollar, even if weakened, continues to be the currency of account in international trade and this is the red line for Americans.
The United States must do whatever it takes to create problems for those countries that openly challenge the international order that sees them as the main economic player.
Creating problems at the borders, forcing the Russians to use their resources in the arms race, fomenting ethnic-religious problems, build biological laboratories in neighboring nations to encourage the spread of infectious diseases in the enemy’s territories and so on are all brutal means of weakening the opponent but I do not think that in Washington they are so foolish as to think of directly defeating the enemy.
The United States and the whole Western world are living in a late-empire situation: corruption, inverse selection of skils, in general a dystopian situation, but if, perhaps, before 2014 ,they thought they could defeat the enemy directly, and only the Russian nuclear deterrence prevented them from engaging in an open confrontation (like the Romans against the Goths at Adrianapoli in 376 with the consequent devastating defeat), these last seven years have not passed in vain: the brilliant Syrian military campaign, the deployment of innovative weapons systems but, above all, the resilience of the Russian economy in the face of massive economic sanctions combined with the price of the crude oil dropped (or rather artificially pushed) to 30 dollars proved that Russia is not a gas station but a strategic rival to be reckoned with.
Nowadays those who decide in Washington know that a direct confrontation with Russia would cause, if not defeat, unsustainable costs. The solution they have adopted is to try to lure their enemies into one or more big traps in which they get bogged down to reverse the trend, which as you think, sees them losers in the medium (or probably short) period.
They are using whatever provocation they can to lure the bear into the Ukrainian trap. If Russia eventually invaded Ukraine and occupied it, Washington strategists would tear their garments, invoke the sacred principles of democracy and, above all, would uncork many bottles of champagne: the war fanfares would play for a few days but no American soldier would move from his barracks apart from those of special operations (who are already in Ukraine) to organize guerrillas and riots: Russia would fall into a situation similar to that of the USSR with Afghanistan.
The alternative is to think that everyone in Washington has gone demented and psychopathic: sorry but for me this idea is a bit childish
“The United States and the whole Western world are living in a late-empire situation: corruption, inverse selection of skils, in general a dystopian situation, but if, perhaps, before 2014 ,they thought they could defeat the enemy directly, and only the Russian nuclear deterrence prevented them from engaging in an open confrontation (like the Romans against the Goths at Adrianapoli in 376 with the consequent devastating defeat), these last seven years have not passed in vain: the brilliant Syrian military campaign, the deployment of innovative weapons systems but, above all, the resilience of the Russian economy in the face of massive economic sanctions combined with the price of the crude oil dropped (or rather artificially pushed) to 30 dollars proved that Russia is not a gas station but a strategic rival to be reckoned with.
Nowadays those who decide in Washington know that a direct confrontation with Russia would cause, if not defeat, unsustainable costs. The solution they have adopted is to try to lure their enemies into one or more big traps in which they get bogged down to reverse the trend, which as you think, sees them losers in the medium (or probably short) period.
They are using whatever provocation they can to lure the bear into the Ukrainian trap. If Russia eventually invaded Ukraine and occupied it, Washington strategists would tear their garments, invoke the sacred principles of democracy and, above all, would uncork many bottles of champagne: the war fanfares would play for a few days but no American soldier would move from his barracks apart from those of special operations (who are already in Ukraine) to organize guerrillas and riots: Russia would fall into a situation similar to that of the USSR with Afghanistan.”
Very perceptive comment. You accurately assess the broader global geostrategic situation and the very Machiavellian strategy that America and its vassals are pursuing.
The only way that America can maintain its jealously guarded world dominance (aka, the Rules-Based World Order) is to weaken its opponents … by trying to bait them into costly wars, while the USA hides behind the skirts of proxies who will be American imperial cannon fodder in these wars.
I would also add that the same game that America is playing against Russia, it is also playing against China, with Taiwan filling the role of Ukraine.
“The United States is going to produce about 480 brand-new B61−12 nuclear bombs to equip its bombers and those of its European allies. The first guided, standoff nuclear gravity bomb, known as the B61-12, is intended to replace all existing gravity bombs.
The B61-12 uses a modified version of the warhead for the current B61-4 gravity bombs, which have a maximum yield of about 50 kilotons and several lower-yield options. However, the new bomb is equipped with a guided tail kit that allows to increase its accuracy and standoff capability. The B61-12 also has some limited earth penetration capability, which increases its ability to hold at risk underground targets.
The B61-12 is estimated to be 12 feet long, weighing approximately 825 pounds, and is designed to be air-launched in either ballistic or gravity drop modes.
In March 2020, the F-15E became the first aircraft to be certified to operate the B61-12. It should be also integrated on B-2, B-21, F-16, and PA200 aircraft of the US and other NATO member states’ air forces. The F-35A should be nuclear-certified with the B61-12 in 2024–2026.”
These are worrying and dangerous times for all of us, whether we’re aware of it or not. Do you think that Russia could potentially resort to an asymmetrical response to US/NATO provocations in Ukraine before the situation escalates? It would be in line with the Russian strategy of responding at the time and place of their own choosing like they did in Syria. We ought to remember the intervention in Syria came within a year or so following the US-sponsored coup in Kiev. Of course, I don’t want to speculate as to the magnitude of the potential Russian response to the West’s military build-up in Eastern Europe.
Personally, my opinion is that Russia should work with the countries with which it has common interests (I’m deliberately not saying allies) to formulate a response to Western actions. I’m speaking of countries like Iran, China, Venezuela, Cuba, and all other countries which are existentially threatened by the US/West. These countries would have to form a coordinated response that would not stop short of military cooperation that would function as a defensive alliance against the West. Russia cannot stand up to the West on its own and if it is forced to fight for her survival on her own, the results could be disastrous for all of us.
To get back to my question, do you think it’s possible that Russia could coordinate an asymmetrical response with China and/or Iran or even Venezuela that would deter the West from aggression in Ukraine? We all know that the US is currently on the retreat in the Middle East where the anti-US coalition has forced Washington into a retreat. They are currently vulnerable in the ME and that’s where Russia should hit them using their own tactics. This asymmetrical response should be sufficient to cause them damage and deter them from further aggression against Russia, without offering a pretext to retaliate, which is what you argued the US is doing to Russia in Eastern Europe.
The NWO is just trying to fulfill the prophecy of the “Gaon” of Vilna (Kabbalist), by starting a war in Ukraine. (The secret doctrine of the Gaon of Vilna
The MSM elaborates the narrative, and the fool fails in it.
Putin most likely knows it, and I hope is not fool enough to jump in.
Aren’t the CSTO countries obliged to mutual defense? In case Russia is attacked, as treaty members, the CSTO countries are also dragged into the war. However, given their tendency towards Turkey, I doubt if they’d stand beside Russia in case of a war.
I have a question for the Saker:
It is obvious that the West will try to trigger a war between Russia and Ukraine
From the point of view of Russia, though, would it be preferable to engage a war against Ukraine solely (therefore playing the West game, and not facing the main problem of being harrassed by the West), or to grab the chance of engaging a war against the West (therefore risking a nuclear war)?
As they say on the Georgia Guide stone never let the Human population ever again exceed one half billion. It seems the world elite are on track to achieving this goal. History is filled with attacks against Russia by the Vikings the Golden hordes the Ottoman empire the French and British. Hitler and the Nazi hordes. Not to forget Japan and China. When ones home land is attract men and women rise to meet the aggressor. So in closing as a great Dakota Chief once said it a good day to die. Lord almighty may men come to there scenes before its to late.
” And what do they want the Kremlin to do now? To dismantle these forces or send them back behind the Urals maybe?”
Could “the West” be luring Putin into a “Grand Old Duke of York” scenario, to discredit him with the Russian public? Support for the government in matters of life and death is very conditional. Yet the continual invocations of the Great Patriotic War for internal consumption imply Barbarossa II is about to happen. What if it isn’t, and the NATO provocations are to be quietly wound down? Russia would be left with a huge, costly military deployment and no immediate enemy. Perhaps NATO would be seen by the Russian public as like Cavafy’s barbarians, “a sort of solution”. (The British nursery rhyme refers to the second son of George III, who had been given a military command, despite being a completely useless commander)
The Grand Old Duke of York,
He had ten thousand men,
He marched them up to the top of the hill,
And he marched them down again.
And when they were up they were up,
And when they were down they were down,
And when they were only half way up, they were neither up nor down.
Sadly, a lot of Western “leaders” are delusional nowadays. They make many saber rattling statements about Russian and Putin seemingly not considering the impact of their statements in Russia. Also the whole Ukraine fiasco was “Biden’s thing”, as Pres. Obama put it. The Ukrainians probably have a lot of nasty info about Biden’s actions when he was VP.
I think many of the US military are in denial about Russians many Tech advances and are loath to tell the politicians and public that for all the massive Pentagon spending the Russians have better weapons systems than the US has. A truly dangerous situation.
This whole NATO/Ukraine stupidity is just continuing and continuing. Looking at the entire situation logically, is laughable in so many ways yet, also incredibly dangerous which automatically just “makes the head shake from side to side”.
I find it increasingly difficult to use logic these days with anything to do with western politics. Nearly every issue is so tainted with psychological propaganda/programming that you need to ‘just stay away’ for your own mental health sake.
And, no I’m not losing it!
I am not a military person but it seems to me that this has already gone on way too long so, to me, it seems definitely time for Russia to make a statement, and a definite stand.
It is time to make a statement which will finally give their positions the authority they deserve as Leaders of a nuclear nation.
Maybe it’s time for the Russians to use those ‘Jewellery Satellite Killers’, to take out all of the US and NATO’s GPS Satellites?
This way, no one dies, (unless someone drives their car over a mountain while following their GPS?)
This way, the US/NATO Military Leaders get their pants pulled down publicly and get embarrassed for the clowns that they are and, as they should.
Russia’s patience has been weaponised against them to demean their position, their authority and the respect they deserve. And, that loss of respect may well be used against them politically within Russia herself?
Maybe, that is one of the goals of NATO/US, to make Putin and the Russian leadership look weak and indecisive? I do think that is slowly working to some degree while looking on anyway.
These western idiots who are leading this circus need their collective bums smacked like the naughty children they are and, it is past time for that to happen.
In my opinion, most likely scenario is that Ukrainian leadership launches a war, gets beaten, and the Empire will not be there to protect them. Sure they will cry crocodile tears about Russian smackdown, and impose sanctions. However I do not see a major war. Although anything is possible. Back in 2018, when false flag gas attack happened in Syria there was a worry about major war. But seems like the Empire did not dare to attack Russian position. I do think that the Empires leadership knows that war with Russia is suicide
Hopefully if the Ukrainian leadership launches a war and get beaten, it will gets a rude wake up call, and also my fellow Ukrainians. There are anti-empire and anti-nazi voices in Ukraine. They are a small minority, but they are there. Not everyone in Ukraine supports Empire. Even in western regions of Galicia there are sane people. The only hope I have is that Ukrainian soldiers desert. I pray for such outcome.
At the same time the US is increasing her belligerent behavior towards Russia (and China), she is importing 2 million barrels of oil every day from Russia, while sanctioning NS2, and now is demanding from Russia to produce more oil.
Only the mentally deranged US can display their arrogance and hubris in such insane behavior. But don’t expect the American ruling elite, or their puppets in the White House, to come to their senses. They won’t.
Maybe not the elite. But the footsoldiers might. When Russia helps, perhaps the Naval officers, military remember act of kindness, and the orders to attack Russia come, the footsoldiers desert en masse refuse orders, and elites are finished. What we need to aim is for creating a conditions for significant part of the internal ruling class apparatus defecting. I remember listening to Andrei in Geopolitics and Empire. Andrei said that a way must be found to remove neocons from positions of power.
If Russia helps, then perhaps at least some segment of Americans will feel grateful, and order to attack Russia will make no sense. Long shot, but worth it 🤔😉
For Poland and Ukraine I say this: George Bush Sr said, you can fool some all people some of the time, and some people you can fool all the time, those the ones you focus on.
Unfortunately, they are too gullible to realize being used many times over.
If the war hybrid or otherwise has already started then this from the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/25/all-options-fraught-with-risk-as-biden-confronts-putin-over-ukraine – a weak and awful guff piece wrong on so many levels – is the equivalant of sending cavalry into the face of SS20’s….
While this is off topic I would like to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving!
polls can say whatever the pollster wants them to say ,depending on how it is framed and what districts it is done in. use lots of salt.
“How completely out of touch with reality can western leaders be?”
They don’t seem to care. Remember Carl Rove dismissing the “reality based community”? The exceptional nation can define its own reality. This may be changing, but slowly.
Here’s an interesting take from Foreign Affairs–take with grains of salt.
Russia Won’t Let Ukraine Go Without a Fight
Moscow Threatens War to Reverse Kyiv’s Pro-Western Drift
By Michael Kimmage and Michael Kofman
November 22, 2021
Russian soldiers boarding a transport plane, Kaliningrad, Russia, September 2021
Vitaly Nevar / Reuters
Ominous signs indicate that Russia may conduct a military offensive in Ukraine as early as the coming winter. Moscow has quietly built up its forces along the Ukrainian border over the past several months, which could be a prelude to a military operation that aims to resolve the political deadlock in Ukraine in its favor. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin may once again be engaging in coercive diplomacy, this time around Moscow may not be bluffing. If no agreement is reached, the conflict may renew on a much larger scale.
Why would Putin risk geopolitical and economic upheaval by reigniting the military confrontation with Ukraine? After all, he has good reason to be invested in the regional status quo. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, walking away with one of the largest land grabs in Europe since World War II. Western sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion have not bitten particularly hard, and Russia’s macroeconomic situation is stable. Russia also retains a firm hold on the European energy market: the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will cement German dependence on Russian natural gas, marches toward activation despite legal snags. Meanwhile, the United States and Russia are in the midst of strategic stability talks. Putin met with U.S. President Joe Biden in June as part of the effort to build a more predictable relationship between the countries.
Below the surface, however, Russia and Ukraine are on the trajectory toward renewal of this unresolved conflict, which may redraw the map of Europe once more and upend Washington’s efforts at stabilizing its relationship with Russia. Year by year, Moscow has been losing political influence in Ukraine. The government in Kyiv took a strong stance on Russian demands last year, indicating it would not compromise for the sake of working with Putin. European nations appear to have backed Ukraine’s position, and Kyiv has simultaneously expanded its security cooperation with Russia’s American and European rivals.
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As Moscow has been growing more confident politically and economically, Washington’s shift of attention and resources to its competition with China may have convinced Putin that Ukraine is now a peripheral interest for the United States. Russian leaders have signaled that they have grown tired of diplomacy and find Ukraine’s growing integration with the United States and NATO intolerable. The stage is set for Moscow to reset this equation through force—unless Moscow, Washington, and Kyiv are able to find a peaceful resolution.
PREPARING FOR WAR
Russia’s force posture does not suggest that invasion is imminent. Quite possibly, no political decision to launch a military operation has been made. That said, Russian military activity in recent months is well outside the normal training cycle. Units from thousands of miles have deployed to the Western Military District, which borders Ukraine. Armies from the Caucasus have sent units into Crimea. These are not routine training activities but rather an effort to preposition units and equipment for potential military action. Furthermore, many of the units appear to be moving at night to avoid closer scrutiny, unlike the previous buildup in March and April.
The scenario of a wider war is entirely plausible. Should it come to pass, Putin’s choice to expand a simmering conflict will not be impulsive. The legacy of the 2014 Ukraine crisis remains more conducive to escalation than to the freezing of this conflict into an uneasy peace.
What has changed over the past year? First, Russian strategy in Ukraine has not yielded a political solution that Moscow can accept. After a 2018 campaign that suggested some openness to dialogue, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s hard turn away from seeking a compromise with Russia a year ago eliminated any hope that Moscow can achieve its objectives through diplomatic engagement. Moscow sees no path out from Western sanctions, and talks between Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France aimed at resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine are going nowhere. As these political and diplomatic efforts flounder, Moscow knows that previous efforts to use force have paid dividends.
At the same time, Ukraine is expanding its partnerships with the United States, the United Kingdom, and other NATO states. The United States has provided lethal military assistance, and NATO is helping to train the Ukrainian military. These ties are a thorn in Moscow’s side, and Russia has slowly shifted from considering Ukraine’s membership in NATO as a redline to opposing the growing structural Ukrainian defense cooperation with its Western adversaries. From the Kremlin’s point of view, if Ukrainian territory is to become an instrument against Russia in the service of the United States, and the Russian military retains the ability to do something about it, then the use of force is a more than viable option.
Russia may have leverage over Europe, owing to surging gas prices.
Zelensky’s administration also appears weak and increasingly desperate to find domestic support. He has not done much to reduce corruption or to separate Ukraine from its long tradition of oligarchic rule. His October 2021 approval rating, according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, stands at 24.7 percent. Russian officials have made clear that they see no point in negotiating with Zelensky and have spent the year actively delegitimizing his administration. If Moscow has dispensed with even the pretense of diplomatic engagement, this suggests that the use of force is growing ever more likely.
Russia’s domestic position and broader geopolitical developments are no less important. Putin’s regime appears secure and the opposition is heavily repressed. Moscow has rebuilt its financial position since the onset of Western sanctions in 2014 and currently has some $620 billion in foreign currency reserves. Russia also may have considerable leverage over Europe this year, owing to surging gas prices and energy supply shortages. Meanwhile, Europe has been mired in handwringing after the messy withdrawal from Afghanistan and is still struggling to define its goal of “strategic autonomy.” The Biden administration is focused on China, signaling that Russia is lower on the agenda and Europe is not a top policy priority. Ukraine thus represents a secondary interest within a secondary theater.
Over the course of the past year, the Russian leadership has used stark rhetoric, drawing attention to its redlines in Ukraine. Moscow does not believe that the United States has been taking it seriously. In October 2021, Putin noted that although Ukraine may not formally be granted membership into NATO, “military development of the territory is already underway. And this really poses a threat to Russia.”
It is doubtful that these are empty words. Russian leadership sees no prospect for a diplomatic resolution and thinks Ukraine is slipping into the U.S. security orbit. It may for this reason see war as inevitable. Russian leaders do not believe using force would be easy or cost free—but they perceive that Ukraine is on an unacceptable trajectory and that they have few options to salvage their preexisting policy. They may also have concluded that resorting to military options will be less costly now than it will be in the future.
Russia won a peculiar victory during its 2014–15 military offensive in Ukraine. It forced unfavorable cease-fire agreements on Kyiv. Ukraine’s military has improved considerably since then, but so has Russia’s. The margin of Russian quantitative and qualitative superiority remains substantial. Russia’s success on the battlefield, however, did not translate into diplomatic success in 2014 or thereafter. The agreement that emerged from the war was called the Minsk Protocol, after the city in which it was negotiated. It proved to be a lose-lose settlement: Ukraine never regained its territorial sovereignty. The United States and its European allies, which avoided a potentially escalating conflict with a nuclear power, failed to compel Russia to withdraw through sanctions. And Russian influence over Ukraine—apart from the territories it either annexed or invaded—has since 2015 been steadily diminishing.
Ukraine signed an association agreement with the European Union in 2014, which brought it into the fold of European regulation. This was the very outcome Russia had been trying to prevent. Kyiv has continued to press for NATO membership, and even though it has no immediate prospect of entering the alliance, its defense cooperation with NATO members has only deepened. Although Zelensky ran on a platform of negotiations with Moscow and attempted some diplomatic engagement after taking office, he reversed course in 2020, shutting down pro-Russian TV stations and taking a hard line on Russian demands. The Zelensky administration has placed Ukraine on a path to “Euro-Atlantic integration,” the phrase that American diplomats consistently use to describe Ukraine’s strategic orientation—the road that leads away from Russia.
Although the fighting in eastern Ukraine subsided after 2016, the simmering conflict has obscured an unstable state of affairs in Europe. Russia and the United States, whose influence overlaps in eastern Europe, are set to be adversaries in what Washington now terms a “strategic competition.” But since 2014, the gap between U.S. rhetoric and action in Ukraine and elsewhere remains open to exploitation.
Putin could realistically try to divide Ukraine in two.
The Syrian conflict exposed a lack of American resolve with regard to its stated goal: “Assad must go.” Washington did not push back against a Russian military presence, allowing Moscow to expand its influence across the Middle East. The messy U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the dustup over the AUKUS (Australia–United Kingdom–United States) submarine deal with Australia, which left out and angered France, have revealed serious problems of coordination within the transatlantic alliance. Washington appears war weary, and Russia likely questions whether its declarations of political support for Ukraine are backed by credible resolve.
If Putin assesses U.S. officials’ support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity to be insincere—and there is not much to suggest otherwise—he will not be deterred from changing the regional balance of power through force. It would be foolish for him to attempt to conquer all of Ukraine, an enormous country of more than 40 million people, but it would not be unrealistic for him to try to divide the country in two or impose a new settlement that seeks to reverse Ukraine’s slide into “Euro-Atlantic integration” and security cooperation with the United States.
Moscow has long sought to revise the post–Cold War settlement. Russian leaders might imagine that rather than yielding further efforts at containment, a war on this scale would over time compel a conversation on Russia’s role in European security. Russia’s goal has long been to restore a regional order in which Russia and the West have equal say on security outcomes in Europe. It is doubtful that Putin believes he can achieve such a settlement through persuasion or conventional diplomacy. Russian military action could scare leading European states—some of whom see themselves relegated to a secondary place in U.S. strategy and wish to position themselves between China and the United States—into accepting a new arrangement with Moscow. This is not to say that such an outcome is likely, but it may be the possibility on which Russian leaders are focusing.
FINDING STABILITY IN CONFLICT
The United States should draw two conclusions from Russia’s military buildup around Ukraine. The first is that this is not likely to be merely another coercive display, despite mixed messaging from Moscow. “Our recent warnings have been noticed and are having an effect,” Putin declared on November 18. One day earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry published private letters from France and Germany on diplomacy related to Ukraine, an insult to Russia’s Minsk partners. The key to Washington’s response will be to prepare for the possibility that a war could unfold in 2022, to conduct anticipatory coordination with European allies, and to make clear the consequences of such action to Moscow. By acting now, the United States can work with its European partners to raise the economic and political costs for Russia of military action, possibly decreasing the likelihood of war……….
Is Paul Craig Roberts completely mistaken in his thinking?
Hola, me llamo Vicente de la Fuente Garcia; Soy jubilado y Español (Porque no puedo ser otra cosa). Pro ruso y marxista. Leo muy a menudo artículos de The Saker, desde hace años, porque sigo la politica Global y muchos de los medios, hacen referencia de sus artículos, como en este caso, los franceses al respecto de la problemática de Rusia en Ucrania, que conozco muy bien.
Quiero postear en mi pagina de Fb. un articulo para la plebe ordinaria, contándoles lo que ocurre con Ucrania y el DonBas. También quiero hacer referencia a su famoso “Vademécum de politica” pero no se como calificarles; ¿Podrían ustedes enviarme una explicación, para definir a Saker, como medio internacional de la politica por favor.
Me gustaría recurrir mas a su “Vademécum” pero soy un jubilado ex pequeño empresario caído en desgracia en manos del Estado Profundo de la provincia de Madrid, en particular, Alcala de Henares, donde nació Quevedo si, el que escribió Don Quijote de la Mancha, y soy muy pobre. No obstante les doy las gracias por mi osadía, pero solo quiero hacer que conozcan a Saker. Vfg.
Tactics of USA is “to start a war but not to WIN that war”! As we have seen for many years. War is big business.
Russia have no intentions like NATO and EU to expand and steal other’s land for profits and make wars for the sake and profts.
A country that is concentrated on defending its home at all costs is very very hard to steal.
This is a warning to NATO.
I read Andrei Martyanov’s analysis of the Russia-Ukraine military stand-off. What I’d like from you, Saker, is a careful analysis based on the Russian weapons systems being brought forward to the border zone … together with the political/strategic context. Can you draw any conclusion from this as to whether Putin is seriously considering an invasion of Ukraine?
My own impression is that he is serious, nut I’m not a strategic expert. The fact that Putin has constructed a situation where NATO has felt the need to talk to Russia and that these talks are semi-public, suggests to me that if the talks fail – as they appear to – then Putin will have witnesses – the so-called ‘international community’ – that can confirm that Russia tried negotiations and failed to engage NATO and the West. Strangely, what NATO seem to have said is, if not in so many words, is that they will not fight Russian forces directly. Instead, they will simply apply more sanctions.
This, then, gives Putin a reason to act by carrying out an invasion of Ukraine. If he succeeds, he will then have a choice, either (1) incorporate Ukraine into Russia without consulting the West or NATO; or (2) further negotiate with NATO to allow Ukraine to be ‘Finlandicized’ – its foreign policy must be that of non-alignement and mildly Russia-friendly, but it would pursue its own domestic policies as a liberal democracy with free elections.
Given the poor hearing given to Russia in Geneva, I expect a Russian invasion.