[This analysis was written for the Unz Review]
To begin, let’s recap what just happened in the Crimean waters. First, the HMS Defender deliberately entered the Russian waters under the pretext that the Brits don’t recognize what they call the “annexation” of Crimea. The Brits deny it, but after seeing 4 bombs explode ahead of the HMS Defender, they altered their course as the Russians demanded.
Next, before looking into this deeper, let’s also keep in mind the following fact: the entire Black Sea is a de facto “Russian lake” meaning that Russia has the full military control of the Black Sea. For those alternatively gifted, let me explain what this means:
- The Bal and Bastion coastal defense missiles can sink any ship in the Black Sea in minutes.
- The Black Sea Fleet has seven advanced diesel-electric attack submarines, arguably the most advanced on the planet.
- The HMS Defender was operating without any air cover but detected over 20 Russian military aircraft overflying it.
[Sidebar: For a more detailed discussion of this reality, please see these four (here, here, here and here) articles by Andrei Martyanov. For a more detailed discussion of the laws of the sea, please see this discussion by Nat South.]
In other words, the HMS Defender was a sitting duck with no chance of survival had the Russians decided to fire in anger. General Konashenkov, who is in charge of contacts with the media, had this to say about the outcome of the British provocation: (emphasis added)
“The epic fiasco of the provocation of the British destroyer Defender in the Black Sea, which abruptly changed course from Russian territorial waters after the warning shots of the patrol ship, will remain a fragrant stain on the reputation of the Royal Navy for a long time”
(-: Thereby suggesting that the Brits soiled their pants and ran for their lives :-)
Speaking of anger: I have been parsing the Russian media over the past couple of days and I will only say that there are A LOT of commentators who are mad at the Kremlin for NOT opening fire in earnest and sinking the Defender.
Furthermore, several Russian officials have now indicated that the next time around, the intruders would be destroyed.
Did I mention that the British Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, George Eustice declared in an interview that the Brits plan to repeat such operations in the future?
This now begs the question: would the Kremlin really risk WWIII by sinking a British Navy Ship trying to, to use a British expression, “poke the Russian bear”?
Interestingly, the Brits deny that the Russians fired any munitions ahead of the Defender. Why would they do that? My personal explanation is that the British government does not want to freak out the British and European public opinion. But if they are hiding the truth, it means that this is a truth which makes them uncomfortable. What do you think they might be hiding?
Still, the two UK reporters who were on the Defender (by total coincidence, I am sure), both reported hearing explosions and seeing Russian combat aircraft. The Russian FSB also released video footage taken from the Russian border patrol ships which were shadowing the HMS Defender. You can clearly see the Russian firing their guns ahead of the HMS Defender:
The Russians also have radar footage from many sources and it has been really easy for them to prove that the Defender changed course and left after four bombs exploded ahead on its course.
The reason for all this? “We don’t recognize the annexation of Crimea”. Which makes no sense because EVEN if the UK does not recognize the Russian “annexation” of Crimea (and, along with that, the democratic will of the people of Crimea), they should still recognize the indisputable fact that Russia is the “occupying power” which, therefore, has the legal right to deny any ship “innocent passage” if it believes that this ship is a threat, collecting intelligence or used for propaganda purposes (again, read Nat South’s superb discussion on the applicability of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to this situation). As usual, the Brits are lying about everything, including what the UNCLOS really says…
Now let’s look at this from the Russian point of view.
First, the Russians remember how the Brits declared a 200 miles zone around the Malvinas Islands (“Falklands” in UK parlance) and immediately sunk the cruiser General Belgrano as soon as it entered this zone. The Russians also remember how the Turks shot down a Russian SU-24 over Syria because it had penetrated in Turkish air space for exactly 6 seconds. The HMS Defender spent about 30 minutes in Russian waters.
Can you really blame them for feeling that “some are more equal than others”?
The Brits, being the superior race which only they think they are, declared that they only changed course because a slower Russian vessel was ahead of them and they decided to pass it from the open waters side. In fact, the Brits are so superior to the mongoloid Russian hordes and their dictator that they refused to even reply to the Russian coast guard vessel when it threatened to open fire if the Brits did not change course.
[Sidebar: NOT talking to Russia, ever, seems to be the latest fad with NATO. The same goes for the EU which is now hostage to the 3B+PU nutcases]
(I wonder, does anybody still believe this crap? Does anybody still believe that Great Britain is, well, great? In Russia the expression “мелкобритания” is increasingly used. Translated into English this would be something like “Tiny Britain”)
Anyways, all of the above clearly shows one of two things:
- The Brits do not believe that Russia could sink a UK warship
- The Brits are willing to risk a major military incident possibly leading to war in order to maintain tensions between Russia and the collective West (aka the AngloZionist Empire).
This begs the question: are the Brits correct, or are they delusional?
First, we need to understand the purpose of this provocation: to disrupt the planned summit between the EU and Russia which France and Germany seemed to support, and which the 3B+PU and the Netherlands and the Czech Republic (iirc) categorically opposed (the Ukraine is not member of the EU, but they sure acted as if they had some kind of moral veto power over EU decisions). Sure, the UK has Brexited and should therefore not have any say in EU decisions, but the Anglosphere has enough power over the EU to make this completely irrelevant. We also know that Boris Johnson personally gave the order to the HMS Defender to enter Russian waters. Obviously, that kind of high level decision could not have been taken without Uncle Shmuel’s approval, thus we are dealing with a very deliberately calculated action. If this was the goal, it has been a total success and the Brits just screwed over Macron and Merkel.
Second, this is really largely irrelevant for Russia. If the EU cannot muster enough political courage to talk to Russia, then Russia will directly talk with those countries which want to talk to Russia. To put it bluntly, Russia does not give a damn about the 3B+PU. As for the Netherlands, they are a big investor in the Russian economy and Russians don’t care about what the Dutch might or might not say, as long as they keep investing (in Euros, by the way!), which, so far, they still are. Besides, considering the economic size of Holland, even if they stopped investing this would only be a minor nuisance for Russia. In fact, Merkel has even declared that if the EU cannot agree to have a dialog with Russia, Germany would seek other venues for this purpose.
Third, what just happened is yet another clear sign that the EU is profoundly dysfunctional. After the end of the USSR in 1991, russophobic Neocons in the West decided to make the Russians “pay” by incorporating ex WTO and ex Soviet Republics into NATO. At first, it looked great, but now it has become clear that the blowback from this truly idiotic policy has many unexpected benefits for Russia and major problems for the Empire. They include:
- Russia got rid of all the Soviet periphery which was bleeding the Soviet Union dry.
- None of the newly created states has become a viable, successful state.
- The Empire spent many billions trying to prop up these newly independent states (ex USSR and eastern Europe) and tried to turn them into some anti-Russia showcase. They totally and comprehensively failed.
- Now the UK and, even more so, the 3B+PU have taken the EU hostage and are preventing the countries which matter from, well, mattering anymore.
- Countries bordering Russia are now all demanding NATO troops, which puts the latter in the worst possible position, right across the Russian border and, therefore, within range of too many Russian weapons to list here.
- Last, but not least, the stupid and, frankly, totally irresponsible actions of countries like the UK and the Ukraine risk involving all of Europe in a most dangerous and devastating war.
Bottom line is this: the leaders of the AngloZionist thought they had scored big with the expansion of the EU and NATO. Now they are screwed in a major way and with no solution in sight.
This all is hardly big news, but yet another confirmation of the advanced state of collapse of both NATO and the EU. Conversely, the more EU countries decide to hold bilateral talks with Russia, the better for the future of the European continent.
As for the Brits, they are clearly suffering from phantom pains for their lost empire. Think of it, in less than one century the British Empire went from being the empire upon which the sun never sets, (Britannia rules the waves, etc.) to being the USA’s poodle which nobody respects or takes seriously. Bojo is desperate to prove that he is a “new Churchill” which will teach the damn Russians (and Chinese!) to kowtow to the UK or, failing that, at least kowtow to the Anglosphere. And, as a typical western politician, Bojo is both too ignorant and too narcissistic to understand the risks he is taking.
[Sidebar: the Brits seemed to be combining imperialist arrogance (and delusion!) with a truly shocking lack of PR skills. Not only did they deny that the Russians opened warning fire ahead of them, only to have the FSB prove this denial false by publishing the video of the Russian coast guard vessel firing ahead of the Defender, but now they came up with a truly clumsy piece of nonsense about how a “super dooper secret” dossier on the British plans was somehow apparently found by a passer-by in a heap of trash behind a bus stop in Kent (you think I am joking, then see here). Needless to say, the Russians openly made fun of the Brits saying that “007 agents aren’t what they used to be”. Furthermore, it now appears that some top UK officials were very much opposed to this move which was demanded by Johnson personally (see here and here).]
What about the British military?
We know that their actual capabilities are laughable. But what about their understanding of the situation?
I am not a mind reader and I don’t know what the British sailors (and their bosses) were thinking, but there is one thing which I am sure of: the next time around (and, there will be a next time according to UK ministers), the Russians will use force. If possible, they will try to ram the intruding vessel; if not, they might strike at the intruding vessel’s engines/props to disable it and, possibly, tow it. Should the intruding vessel try to fire back, the Russians would probably fire a torpedo and disable it. That is my best guess. I also decided to ask Andrei Martyanov (a former Soviet Navy officer) what he thinks will happen the next time around. Here is his reply:
“Most likely, they will open fire, but first only with small-caliber naval artillery (30-mm from the Russian border patrol ship or even 76-mm), and that fire will be aimed at the propeller-steering group (i.e. at the stern) to begin with. At the same time, the coastal defense batteries will actively track the intruder with their targeting radar, plus the Russian will “hang” 15-20 Su-24 and SU-30SM in immediate readiness to use more serious means – for example, the supersonic (M = 3.5) anti-radiation X-31 and take out the mast with its radar. That is just for starters. Next, the Russians will gauge the reaction of the intruder: if they try to shoot at any Russian target, they will be sunk. But this would only happen inside Russian territorial waters. Outside Russian waters the Russians will only monitor their moves. Lastly, do not forget – there are anywhere between 4 and 7 Project 636 submarines at any one time patrolling the Black Sea, each capable of firing 6 3M54 anti-ship missiles in one salvo.”
The British paratroopers also recently engaged in a major airdrop in Jordan. The Brits see that as, quote “as show of force to ISIS and Russia”. Russia’s reaction? The Russian Aerospace Forces dispatched two MiG-31K carrying the Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to the Russian Aerospace base in Khmeimim, thus showing the Brits that their ships in the Mediterranean and Black Sea sail at the pleasure of Russia. Again, this won’t be reported by the western legacy ziomedia in order to keep the public opinion totally unaware of the risks Bojo and his gang are taking in the name of their phantom pains about empire. Russian Aerospace Forces Tu-22M3M were also recently deployed to Khmeimim.
Here is a short video of the Russian MoD Zvezda channel to give you an idea of how this all looks (in Russian, but no translation needed) and which quite openly shows whom the Russians consider their likely target.
Here is a Zerohedge article also discussing some of this.
[Sidebar: does anybody still remember what happened when the “invincible” British Navy tried to participate in Trump’s (totally failed) cruise missile attack on Syria? The British subs in the Mediterranean were shadowed by not one, but apparently two Russian submarines. That convinced the British sub commander that firing its missiles would be suicidal. The Brits gave up and left the area]
There is a pattern here: western politicians make a lot of very loud statements; the Russians simply take whatever actions they deem necessary, which frees them from the need to make threats of roaring statements in the first place.
This approach has a problem: only highly specialized people in the West are fully aware of what the Russians are doing and even less people fully understand the implications of the Russian actions. Add to this a western media which lies for a living, and this results in a population in Europe which is almost totally unaware of the very real risks the reckless actions of their (supposed) representative governments engage in. How many Brits will realize that a grinning and apparently happy Boris Johnson has almost stumbled into a war with Russia? Very few I bet. If anything, the common folk in the West are told that (a) their military is the best and (b) that the Russian military is much weaker and the Russians understand that. Ergo: there is no risk.
Then there is the fact that while the general population is kept in total ignorance, western political elites are mostly composed of folks with very strong narcissistic tendencies combined with a total inability to learn from mistakes (both theirs and those of others). Needless to say, history does not inform these people either. Finally, since these folks can never admit a mistake, however minor or serious, they cannot change course; doubling down over and over is pretty much all they are capable of.
There is no doubt that the Biden Administration has taken a very different course towards Russia (and Iran, by the way!) than the one favored by the Trump administration. I attribute this change of policy to the likely realization by top Pentagon officials that the US desperately needs to “catch its breath” and that the US military is in no condition to take on any other halfway competent military. Even if this is a ploy to win time for reorganizing, I welcome this as, by definition, anything is preferable to war, especially a full-scale war. However, there are clearly interests in both the US and Europe which are desperately opposed to any form of detente with Russia and who want to maintain an atmosphere of crisis and tensions just short of war. Of course, I don’t believe in any meaningful differences between the various factions competing for power on a strategic level: they all want to destroy, submit, break up and otherwise devastate Russia. This 1000 year old dream of the western ruling elites (pretty much all of them) still remains the strategic target of the West. But on a tactical level there appear to be two factions, one which understands that the Empire desperately needs a break to regroup and refine its strategy and another one which still seems to believe that the Empire is invincible and appears to be hell-bent on triggering as many conflicts/wars as it deems necessary to restore Uncle Shmuel’s worldwide hegemony.
That second group, clearly strong, has ties with the UK and the 3B+PU gang who are desperate to remain relevant and who understands that should there ever be any type detente (or even a tense modus vivendi) agreed upon between Russia and the West, that group would become comprehensively irrelevant to the future of our planet. While we can disagree with this logic, we have to remain aware that for countries like the UK or the 3B+PU this is truly an existential issue and that they see a continuation of tensions as the only path to political survival. On this specific point, I happen to agree with them.
I mentioned that ever since Dubya, all the US Presidents who came to the White House were extremely weak, which resulted in the breakup of any single US foreign policy into many different, and often contradictory, “mini foreign policies” by various branches of the government (Congress vs White House, plus a Pentagon foreign policy, a CIA foreign policy, a Foggy Bottom policy, a DoE policy, etc. etc. etc.). Hence, for example, the recent seizure by Uncle Shmuel of the PressTV domain name. (BTW – the domain name https://www.presstv.ir/ still works!).
This all makes for a very dangerous brew. Especially since the Russians clearly and sincerely believe that they cannot back down any further.
I therefore conclude that a future military incident, with the use of fire in anger, and possibly resulting in a real war, remains not only possible, but even likely, unless the factions in the West which want a time-out to regroup manage to get the russophobic nutcases under control.
Will that happen? I doubt it very much. Biden is not only weak and senile, his Administration has been organized with wokeness and (pseudo) “diversity” as opposed to competence or expertise. Thus, the collective Biden (which I designate as “Biden” as opposed to the real Biden) is probably too weak to get the crazies under control, even for a short time.
And here is the really scary thing: from the Russian point of view (and Russians all understand all of the above), sinking a British ship might well be the best solution. Why? Because once this happens, it will be impossible to conceal from the western public opinion that its so-called “leaders” are reckless, incompetent, delusional and simply dangerous narcissists who are now willing to risk a continental war (possibly nuclear!) just in order to keep denying the reality of their irrelevance. If Russia wanted to invade the UK, I believe that most Brits would be willing to risk it all to defend their motherland. But I very much doubt that a majority/plurality of Brits would support the notion of dying for Crimea even if they believe that Russia “annexed” the peninsula and is now “oppressing the Ukrainian people of Crimea”. Nor would they want to die over MH17, Skripal, Syria, Navalnyi or the oppressed homos in Chechnia.
There is one more thing I think Putin could do: make a solemn speech and directly address the people of the West telling them the truth about what the western political leaders are doing. He could honestly tell the people in the West that Russia has retreated as far as she could. He can tell the people of the West that Russia did what she so often did in history, she traded space for time and that the four years break of the Trump Administration has allowed Russia to fully rearm, retrain and reorganize her armed forces which are now quite capable of taking on both the US and NATO and prevail.
Yes, I know, Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi tried to appeal to the people of the West and, in both cases, the democratic and free western media completely obfuscated these admittedly naive and clumsy attempts. But if Putin speaks directly to the people of the West, and explains to them what a war (even a conventional one) would mean for Europe, they would have to listen. Putin could clearly indicate to the people of the West which actions of the Empire Russia could never and would never tolerate. Finally, he could clearly spell out why the Russian people would prefer war to any surrender to the Empire. And, just to make sure that the message gets through, the Russian Navy might want to have one of its Yasen-M class SSGN surface somewhere in the Channel or the Tu-160 practice a cruise missile release on London (only electronically, of course). Hussein and Gaddafi did not have such capabilities. Russia does, and she should make use of them.
Fear, especially existential fear, might well be the only thing which could break through the wall of silence and disinformation which the western media has been feeding the people for decades.
How much hope do I place in the Biden Administration taking control of the nutcases or for Putin to directly address the people of the West? Not much at all. And the next best outcome is for Russia to sink a US/UK warship (or shoot down an aircraft) without triggering a continental war. Is that even possible? Yes, I think so. Very dangerous, but possible.
Does Russia have any other choice? If so, I don’t see it. Do you?
Post scriptum: this just in – the USS Ross (DDG-71), an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer in the United States Navy, has just entered to Black Sea on her way to Odessa where the Ukies are preparing maneuvers in their “mosquito fleet” in the latest “Sea Breeze” NATO maneuvers (the biggest ones to date – 30 countries participate!). The Ukies have also declared that the Ross plans to follow the exact same course as the Defender did. The Russians? They announced that the USS Ross is now a “fat target” on their coastal defense missiles Bal and Bastion. As for Foreign Minister Lavrov, he just authored a seminal article entitled “The Law, the Rights and the Rules” which, still using diplomatic language, shows the utter disgust even Russian diplomats feel for the incompetence and hypocrisy of the West.
“More of the same” seems to be the trend of the day…
Parece un guion del chiflado de Ian Brzezinski y todo el poder arrogante anglosionista.
Yandex translation. Mod:
It looks like a script from Ian Brzezinski’s wacko and all the arrogant Anglo-Zionist power.
“But if Putin speaks directly to the people of the West, and explains to them…”
And, Saker, how are people in the West gonna hear Putin when the “arrogant Anglo- Zionist power” controls all the mass and social media.
Actually, JL Borges, it’s mostly Zionist-Jewish power.
Russia and China need to sign a military alliance agreement immediately together with other friendly nations. This is more than obvious by now.
That is what SCO is. They have been in alliance in SCO for 20 years.
They will never be in formal global alliance because their national interests differ.
They are in supportive, coordinated, strategy partnership. It is much more about technical and logistical alliance than putting their armed forces together.
Logistics wins wars. And technological supremacy wins battles. They have both.
Thanks for your reply Larchmonter. I’m sorry but I’m a bit ignorant about all this. Can you briefly explain how Russia’s and China’s national interests differ to the point that it prevents such an alliance. And would either come to the other’s aid if one is attacked? I don’t mean logistical support but actual boots on the ground. Would love to hear your views.
The masters seek a third world war between the white nations, a final cataclysm. The builders are always diligently at work.
It is obvious, very clear and indisputable that the West intends to take some catastrophic tactical losses (at least one ship and its crew) in order to accomplish what the Ukies have not been able to do–to draw Russian “aggression”.
Their goal isn’t more sanctions thrust upon Russia.
The goal is to eliminate Russia from the UNSC status of the Five who have veto power. Aside from nuclear weapons, that is the prime International power and influence in serious matters of the global community.
Supposedly, the key to the tactic of this operation is Article 5 of the NATO alliance. Therefore, it is imperative that the Russians destroy the entire flotilla in the Black Sea leaving nothing if they don’t immediately surrender when the shooting starts.
Russia’s destruction of the flotilla will destroy Article 5.
There is no one in the West that will dare to continue the combat and face nuclear obliteration.
Destroy the flotilla and Article 5 dissolves in the oil-drenched waters of the Black Sea.
So let the USS Ross transgress the 12-mile line and refuse Russian orders to leave. Disable them and take them prisoner and if they fire on the Russians, “decommission” them and render them scrap.
Chase the rest out of the Black Sea. If they fight, sink them.
They are an existential threat. They come as a threat, a second wave. Destroy them.
Hope they will televize it live on CNN
As I have said already – prepare for a showdown. I believe the tipping point was this most stupid stunt carried out by Perfidious Albion, with Bozo the Clown authorizing it. Captain of that boat has put his crew in a mortal danger for nothing more than to carry out an extremely dangerous provocation – on the order from above. If they were sunk, with loss of lives, I wonder who would be held responsible for giving this order? Russians are absolutely furious at this bold-faced, aggressive (ship’s crew was at their weapons stations!) and arrogant display of total disrespect for Russia’s sovereign territory. Pocking the Russian Bear right now any further would be totally suicidal!
But as we all know, they cannot stop, they cannot help themselves, so the provocations will continue.
World should get ready for some serious fireworks. Seems to be the only way now to make them pull their heads in. And then kick it in!
I did mention to you, on the Martyanov blog, that the second provocation would be done by an US war vessel, them assuming that Russia would not dare stopping them.
The HMS Defender being act 1.
An American vessel with act 2. (USS Ross?)
Russia has no alternative but resolutely stop this provocations for good, possibly disabling the American pirate vessel and towing it to port.
The West is run by psychopaths which believe they are God chosen.Not words but force is the only language they understand.
I hope I am wrong.
Cheers from France.
A large torpedo, minus its warhead could target the screws of any ship within the maritime border. I would love to see an American or British ship being pushed by Russian tugs into the port of Sevastopol.
A brutal humiliation is required…….towing an incapacitated hostile warship into Sevastopol, with a full compliment of officers [ under arrest ] on board, would do nicely. The crew could be immediately sent home. Separately.
As a thought experiment: would the Americans agree to free Julian Assange, if Russia send home the entire crew of USS Ross?
“The goal is to eliminate Russia from the UNSC status of the Five who have veto power.”
Spot on, Larch, let me support you in this. From a military point of view these action are useless, the British just want bad PR. Years ago there was the Skripal case and a foiled attempt to stage a chemical agent attack in Syria. Both of them were planned by the British under the umbrella of ‘Global Britain’, in order to get Russia out of the UNSC by portraiting them as villains who should not have a seat there. There was a nice article then about this on voltairenet, but I couldn’t find it back.
I can highly recommend to any reader here, to read the embedded links (under ‘here, here, here and here’) from Andrei Martyanov. In one of these articles the commander of the HMS Defender stated that he ‘would do anything in his power to protect the lives of his 240 servicemen’. Well then, why don’t you get the hell out of there? Are they really that stupid? Do they still live with a 19th century mindset of gun boat policy? I fear the worst, I’m afraid.
There have been propositions to counter the next trespassing ship with disabling it (mechanically, electronically) and simply tow it away. Lock the sailors up, and accuse them of illegally entering the Russian Federation. Just like Iran did with some US sailors when they entered Iranian waters due to some navigation errors.
Ok, from a practical point of view, now what when 2 or 3 ships enter Russian waters at the same time? I would say this is not a ‘mistake’ anymore but an invasion and just sink them if they don’t apply to warnings.
I’m so afraid that totally naive and unrealistic mindsets of some elitists will bring the world to the brink of something disastrous.
A humorous comment elsewhere renamed the HMS Defendor to HMS Tethered Goat.
The context being that during colonial times the English sahibs were fond of hunting big game, for which they tethered a goat nearby whilst sitting safely on their ‘machan’ awaiting for the tiger.
A similar situation has arisen now with goats being tethered all over Europe. Wonder if the goats themselves are conscious of that.
How Times Change
im suprised theres no comment on the “found at a bus stop secret documents ” the uk media has published of internal discussions of the ships planned route and options. highly convenient for an old sceptic like me. or are public servants all that incompetent
To me it is unfathomable what SehSha is trying to do. It’s almost, no is, as if they are deliberately provoking an armed conflict with one of the most powerful countries on this rock on the very borders of said power. I can think of numerous economic reasons for these actions, but reality is I do not think trade is the reason unless this is an amazingly dangerous last ditch effort to stop NS 2 and the growing trade between Europe and Russian Federation, that and like a recalcitrant and petulant child SehSha can not abide being told ‘no’.
Russia has clearly and publicly stated that if her red lines are crossed, it’s war. I know the word ‘war’ was not used, but there is no mistaking the meaning in the red line statement. Moskau has very clearly said, and these are the exact words, ‘An attack on Sevastopol is the same as an attack on Moskau and the retribution for such an attack will be the same.’ Could SehSha be so stupid as to not believe what it is told? Are the Powers That Be in Washington, London and Berlin so isolated and insulated that they think they will not suffer and suffer mightily in the event of this dangerous little contretemps in the Black Sea suddenly going hot and extremely violent? The ‘fleet’ being put together in the Black Sea by SehSha is ludicrous in comparison to the Russian Black Sea Flot, let alone that the entire Krimea Peninsula is as armed and protected as Moskau itself.
Or is this the Götterdämmerung Mutti has planned for her hated Germany and Europe and is it she who is egging the fools in Foggy Bottom on?
I can not see the Flot from my house and If I could I’d never say a word about what the Flot or the other military units are doing, but the feeling hereabouts is tense. Determined, very much so, but tense.
I see this in a different light. I’ve already read that Biden has issued attack orders on Iraqi Militias on the borders of Iraq and Syria, That should also involve Russia. Then there was the meeting between Biden and Putin where Biden said ‘No nuclear weapons’, which in proper parlance simply means that America will use nuclear weapons when required.
But the main cause of all of this is domestic; The Arizona audit is almost completed and General Flynn has stated that the Democrats must create a diversion to remain in control, and I think this could possibly be that diversion. The fact that it was the UK that initiated the Black Sea fiasco is normal for the Americans so as to point out that ‘they’ didn’t start this latest escalation, and it will certainly stop any and all of Trump’s moves against his opposition; ergo this coming conflict will be all about maintaining control in America.
So prepare for some major disasters! I hope that I am wrong, but the signs are all there.
The 100% unnecessary confrontation being staged by the NATO in the Black Sea is the final attempt to derail everything (economy, technology, community, environment) that Russia achieved during past 2 decades. Make no mistake, the Zionist-fascist Deep State has come to a conclusion – now or never.
Russia is at crossroads again. It can’t yield any further space. It has to defend its legitimate interest.
Only point that comes to my mind – once the hot phase starts, it is highly possible that there would be 3 other ‘theaters’ of war – Kaliningrad, Syria, Venezuela, apart from Crimea.
Russia needs to chalk out detail plan and touch base with Chinese and Iranian governments for any and every type of help/support at this hour of need. The ‘resistance camp’ must remember ‘united we stand, divided we fall’. (I’m sure, Russian ultra-nationalists would not like to drive the point – Russia alone can take on 100s of them).
May I point out that the Russians have displayed superior tactics in handling the US/UK over the past decade, and I also believe that their ‘Intelligence agencies’ are also well aware of what is going on; ergo Russia knows exactly what is happening, and who is with them and either against them or impartial.
And thus being aware of this situation, and I believe well prior to the UK/US’s actions, they would have planned and prepared for this a long time ago.
I would also consider it a strong possibility that Russia may again disrupt the shenanigans using something out of ‘left-field’, that none of us can see at present. In reality it’s simply chess against checkers.
They need a Ben Franklin or have a Ben Franklin moment. “We must all hang together, or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately.”
Andrew, I too expect the Russians will absolutely diffuse this and defang these wolves. But there still remain the risk that wolves will still try to bite, in which case – God help us.
Four theatres. I am a long time reader of the Saker website and it is just amazing the blind angle everyone and the Saker himself seem to have with regards Africa.
Russia seems to have decided to take the war to NATO in Africa. Francophone Africa was sublet to France and when it was not a coup d’etat, takongnout a leader who wanted to stand for his people, it was an economic deal so unfavorable to the locals that they would be better off under slavery. When I read most write ups about Africa, they read like Africans are incapable of thinking for themselves. No, such is not the case with a lot of people seeing through the machinations of the West. Furthermore, Africa is what happens when strong empires let evil in and the effect of next to 1000 years of dismantlingnof highly complex and functioning societies.
So you ask the question how this pertains to Russia? Russia has hardly sought conquest, thus their lack of interest in Africa. Followingnthe fall of the Soviet Union, things got worse for Africa because even the alternatives the SU offered were no longer there, making the rape of Africa go into overdrive. I watched how the Western powers have torn Africa apart limb by limb, and ground the bones off the skeletons that are left. The arrogance of these powers culminated with the introductionnof Africom, with a drone base in Niger, which is the centre for coordinating Boko Haram and the AQIM. The destruction of Libya and the use of Boko Haram across Africa are tools to Cut-off interregional trade and exchanges while exacting a heavy toll on these already struggling countries and people. At the forefront of this setup is France, which acts as the NATO lieutenant here. Thus France has the Barkhane in Mali, running operations in Niger, Mali, Chad, etc. BARKHANE supports the boko Haram operations targeting all the sub region countries including Nigeria. It is therefore no error that Boko Haram is better equipped than most regional armies here. The now dead Idriss Deby was the secondntool innthe French kit, providing the foot soldiers necessary to enforce the will of France, where Boko Haram could not be used. Thus Chadian soldiers were used to effectively cut Mali in two, to keep the French operations away fromnthe prying eyes of the central government. Similarly, Chad and her soldiers dressed as mercenaries were used in Central African Republic to topple every single government and impose the will of France to maintain the country in a state of perpetual failure. The same tactics have been used in Burkina Faso while in the Cote d’ivoire, the French Soldiers were used in direct support of the rebels when these could not unseat Gbagbo.
It is in this background that Russia, having used up all its cards to postpone the war against the West, in the Middle East, in East Asia, has chosen to take the war to the Affican continent. The Russians set a foothold by turning Khalifa Haftar in Libya into a Russian asset, after the Americans dumped him. Through Khalifa, the Russians supported the FACT rebels in Chad to make a run for the Cjadian capital, ending up innthe death of Idriss Deby. The threat of the FACT still stay, eliciting the fear and cold sweats in Paris. With the Chadian army occupied with preserving the Deby dynasty in Chad, the Russians stepped up the game in Mali by supportingnthe young soldiers and youth in Mali clamoring for France to leave. Macron has cancelled every military agreement with Mali, but similar to Syria, France refuses to leave. In the Central African Republic, Russia has propped the government, in conjunction with Rwanda, and kicked out all the French supported rebels, and chadian mercenaries.
Macron and the French establishment is growing crazy. So is the USA. Russia has so much leeway in Africa and except the might of NATO is brought into Africa a la CENTCOM, the African terrains and the disgust of Africans inbgeneral for the West and French in particular is making any counter moves of the French fraught with much risk.
I believe the British manoeuvres are meant to remind Russia of its soft underbelly in the Black Sea and distract from the Russian build up of forces in Africa which is already posing a huge threat to the Western hegemony there.
Will Russia sink the British, French or USS destroyer if it tries such a thing again? I do not know. But if I were a Russian planner, I would look at the option of hitting a French sweetshop so hard in Africa that the pain will be felt all over the capitals of NATO. And I believe that may be the reason for the British provocation at the same time the French are seeking a peaceful agreement with Russia.
Thanks for revealing the real news about Africa – a much maligned continent. I was born there.
Turmoil in Africa leads to more illegal immigration to Europe. I went there legally as a child, but that was in 1962.
Frankly, I had no idea Russia was this active in Africa. And if Libya and Russia become strong allies, that is very good news for the Muslim World.
Thank you for your always cogent analysis. I think you hit the nail on the head when you said this provocation was intended to shut off a rapprochement to Russia by Macron and Merkel:
“Obviously, that kind of high level decision could not have been taken without Uncle Shmuel’s approval, thus we are dealing with a very deliberately calculated action. If this was the goal, it has been a total success and the Brits just screwed over Macron and Merkel.”
I don’t think a war with Russia is the goal. In a non-nuclear war, Russia would would likely win. In a nuclear war, the Deep State would lose too much. Too risky. I think the goal is to provoke Russia into a disproportionate response which will allow the Deep State propaganda machine to scream: WE ARE INNOCENT! WE HAVE BEEN WRONGED! Then the public opinion of the EU could be steered into clamping down an economic Iron Curtain between the EU and Russia. This is not possible today because of powerful economic interest represented by Macron and Merkel.
The intent of such an Iron Curtain would be to precipitate a fatal economic blow to the Russian economy causing the Russian people to repudiate the offending government of Putin and to elect one more open to economic “penetration” by the western Deep State. Like a new Boris Yeltzin… This is the Deep State fantasy.
The reality is that the Russian government has read this book too and understands what is going on. There will be no disproportionate response. (I like the idea of destroying the rudder next time.) The Russian government has been preparing for an Iron Curtain for some time, hasn’t it? It is setting up its own payment system and it is strengthening its economic ties with China. There may be momentary pain but nothing fatal. Besides the Russian people don’t have a history of knuckling under to foreign invaders, do they? I seem to recall that the mayor set fire to Moscow before Napoleon arrived.
This is not about war. It is all about the Deep State wanting to erect an Iron Curtain between the EU and Russia to provoke regime change in Russia. At most it will destroy the economies of Europe.
“Besides the Russian people don’t have a history of knuckling under to foreign invaders, do they? I seem to recall that the mayor set fire to Moscow before Napoleon arrived.”
Nope, Nappy and his Imperial Guard were in Moskau when the Governor ordered the town burned.
One of the things that the westerners seem to fail to understand about the russian psychology, is that, while in the west the wars are “won” and “lost” in the media rooms (without any relation to the reality on the battleground), the russian don’t give a damn about the PR as long as they achieve their objectives in military terms. And, if the politicians don’t meddle in the decision making process, they usually achieve them.
Will the Brits sink a Russia ship next time around?
nope. they don’t really have the kind of missile needed to do that.
Now is the perfect time for Buenos Aires to send some ships of the Argentine navy to the Falkland islands. Of course only for excercises and to check up their waters. If Moscow coordinates well with Argentina, they can make the Brits retrieve from the Black Sea very quickly. Thatcher was crazy enough to send young British men to their death to defend some rocks inhabited by penguins in the ocean. I’m not sure the British public would accept Bojo to send British soldiers to fight for Crimea, which isn’t even linked in any way to the UK. Crimea is pure Russian land, and the Russians will defend their homeland, no matter what happens. And the Argentinans could renew their claim to the Falklands.
Well, the Russians might send an SSN to the Malvinas just to mess with the Brits (imagine their panic if that happens!)
I totally aprove is this idea. And the government in London can’t be at several places of the world at the same time. Britannia is not an empire anymore. Argentina renewing her claim (which I think is justified) to the Malvinas/Falklands and the South Sandwich islands would totally confuse the Brits and if they panic they will think twice if they want to mess with the Russians too in the Black Sea. Buenos Aires doesn’t recognize the illegal annexiation and occupation by England of the Malvinas and Sandwich island, so they have all the right they have for their fleet to cross these waters.
Argentina is no longer capable of invading the Malvinas/Falklands, but the UK is also incapable of defending them, or retaking them. It would certainly worry the UK if a Russian SSN appeared offshore! But I prefer the idea of somehow disabling the USS Ross, whether rudder or propellers and/or radar.
Yes, an then tow the USS Ross to Sevastopol. The clever military strategist doesn’t sink the enemy’s ship but acquires it and examines its technology. Both the ship itself and the examination will become handy for Russia.
The only thing to remember though is that the Americans are another caliber than the British – both in the means of economy and military strength. Good old Britannia would be highly offended by such a move, but they would think twice to send another ship into the Black Sea. But you can bet, the Americans would react differently in such a confrontation…
Unfortunately, British reports about the deterioration of Argentine military capabilities are entirely accurate, even understated. The corruption of 16 years of Kirchner rule have robbed the Argentine military of any capability. The condition of the paratroopers, with whom I had the honor of sharing quarters for a week, is deplorable. They have almost no equipment except for some aging small arms. The navy is in worse shape, with corrupt contractors failing to perform adequate maintenance and repairs on the aging submarine fleet: the result of which was the sinking of the ARS San Juan several years ago owing to mechanical failures. Worse sill than the navy and land forces is the Argentina air force. Argentina has never replaced the Mirage properly and at this point has no functioning air force. With a British arms embargo and a Kirchner government that has done everything possible to interdict all forms of international trade (except with Cuba and Venezuela, of course), there are no currency reserves, no credit, and no corporate partners willing to sell aircraft to the Argentine government. The aircraft factory in Cordoba supplies almost nothing to the local air-force and large parts of it have been idled.
Thank you so much for sharing your memories!
Yes, it’s sad how the governments of the last years were ruining the Argentine economy. Kirchner surely was anti-imperialist in the means of foreign policy, but she had a lot of problems with nepotism unfortunately. A lot of funcionarios from her party were literally stealing the people’s money and Kirchner’s cabinet was failing to attract foreign investments to Argentina. Her successor Mauricio Macri was deeply neo-liberal and unsurprisingly Argentina’s economy was ruined by it even more. Inflation is rapidly killing the Peso Argentino.
Mr Fernandez (Macri’s successor) doesn’t seem to be quite able to govern Argentina either. Plus, I was highly disturbed about his racist remarks about Brazil and México.
That is why I think it’s essential now for Argentina to form an alliance with Russia. I like the thought of having a Russian military base in Patagonia. And an economic-alliance with Russia would be beneficiary for both countires. Who knows, perhaps Argentina will join BRICS someday?
“I’m not sure the British public would accept Bojo to send British soldiers to fight for Crimea, which isn’t even linked in any way to the UK.”
1) I ‘m have never been under the impression that the British (particularly English) public ever had a choice on such matters. Their ruling classes have routinely engaged in reckless wars and military actions that have produced paradigm shifting in ‘real’ countries. Note in many of those countries that in hindsight these outrages was a catalyst for being moving forward or advancing as a people. The British seem to be quite proud of the fact they are a 1000 yr monarchy and don’t seemed to be at all bother by being allied with other remaining monarchies…like the Saudi or Thailand (sorta the old King of Siam) even if that Saudi monarchy has that old English habit of chopping peoples’ head off.
2) The Iraq war didn’t produce any blow back other than destroying any credible notion that the British have a ‘Left’ or even a party that a principled Englishman could be reasonably assured wouldn’t ignore international law, engage in a demonstrable war crime or end up comfortably in the back pocket of the worst political elements (dare I use their fake left term ‘neocons!!’) in spite of near record opposition to such participation.
3) Could the British be lead to support a war in the Crimea? Regardless of whether the public supports or not the game seems to be for the American directed ‘Media’ to simply invent a unassailable ‘narrative’ PROVING widespread popular support anyway.
To support the case, the modus operandi is to engage in wholesale entertainment propaganda that could include: a highly top rated (not!) ‘Braveheart’ like dramatised fictional re-examination of the Battle of Balaclava, Tennyson, Charge of the Light Brigade and all sorts of historical vague or invented garbage — hell you could invent a bunch Ottomans running slaves out of the port and dovetail that nicely with the British and their so called ‘war on slavery’! (which would help sanctify the American actor quota hiding behind race sensitivity to keep the proper perspective…it’s always nice to work in a industry where the standard procedure of it’s own employees is to denounce it’s own production)
Always remember the English are proud of the fact that they have killed everyone in world at one time or another with the exception of their Monarch and their ruling class.
So I’m gonna sit and wait for HBO Prime to roll out a really good version of what Stalin did to those poor Germans or the backstabbing of our brave English Tommies at Archangel or what exactly was the fallout between the Germans and the Russians since they both start WW2…according the EU? LOL
What I see is that people still can’t believe the stupidity (therefore also real danger hidden within) of collective west. WW1 & WW2 is for the most something from the history books and Hollywood movies, where Russia plays just a marginal role as per script. Majority here in EU has long ago fallen for the narrative of “Russia the aggressor” and “Putin the soulless killer”… they want to see Russia seriously wounded and humiliated, as to boost their heavily damaged ego and sense of superiority. That is a general sentiment. No awareness of consequences whatsoever.
Russia and China have lost information war. No Putin’s speech, however dramatic and sincere can change that.
What we can expect in coming days is a major provocation, first by Ukraine (in the stile of Kerch strait incident, this time with very intended victims on Ukrainian side), following by simultaneous intrusions from all sides into Crimea territorial waters “in support of Ukraine” and show of force. It doesn’t matter how Russia will play this, I suspect media reports about those future incidents are already in place, ready for emitting, just like when BBC reported on WTC7 building.
Russia doesn’t want war, no sane person do, but nevertheless war is coming ready or not. I can smell it, and I think Saker can smell it too. And so, “if fight is inevitable throw the first punch”… but this time make it count, or you’ll very soon be on the receiving side Russia. If nothing else, Trump presidency has bought you some time to prepare, and that time is gone now. Dragging your feet will just demoralize home front, time to show some more character. Expiration date of “wisdom & patience & hope” has passed, that stuff is unusable anymore.
Quoting you ” What we can expect in coming days is a major provocation, first by Ukraine (in the stile of Kerch strait incident, this time with very intended victims on Ukrainian side), following by simultaneous intrusions from all sides into Crimea territorial waters “in support of Ukraine”.
I think you are bang on. This is the most likely scenario. Russia will then be left with two choices: (1) Ignore the violations of her territorial waters by multi-national navies; (2) Drive out the invaders, sinking them if need be.
Option (1), [ignoring the intrusions], will establish the precedent that NATO can enter Crimean waters at will. The next time around, it will not be a few ships but a powerful force, possibly with nuclear missiles, capable of inflicting serious losses on Russia. A little thought thus shows that Option 1 doesn’t really exist, unless the Russians have decided to cave in.
Option (2) can – and likely will – lead to active hostilities. Fighting is unavoidable if your home waters are invaded. However, after a limited amount of fighting, it might finally sink into NATO minds that their posturing has spun out of control and wisdom lies in ceasing fire. Out of a short and limited war hopefully a longer term peace can emerge. If Russia had sunk that darned British ship the first time around, it would have broken a dangerous tendency right at the start and at a lower cost of serious hostilities.
War is coming. I agree.
Cheers from France.
“Does anybody still believe that Great Britain is, well, great? In Russia the expression “мелкобритания” is increasingly used”.
The name “Great Britain” has been used since the Dark Ages, to distinguish what is today called simply Britain from “Little Britain”, today called Brittany.
It could perhaps be compared to the term “Great Russia”, as compared to “White Russia”, “Little Russia”, etc.
I sincerely thank you for that history lesson/insight my good sir. it helps us understand what the hell is going on, and why,
HMS Trent has entered the Black Sea to join Sea Breeze 21. Um um…
Waiting to see who is going to try to pull the next FONOP stunt.
“Anyways, all of the above clearly shows one of two things:
The Brits do not believe that Russia could sink a UK warship
The Brits are willing to risk a major military incident possibly leading to war in order to maintain tensions between Russia and the collective West (aka the AngloZionist Empire)”.
Actually, I prefer a third alternative: the UK government, as usual, unthinkingly and unquestioningly obeyed orders from Washington.
The US government may be reluctant to start an open war between itself and Russia, so it commands one of its hapless (and expendable) catamites to poke the bear. If the very worst happened, it would be only British ships that were destroyed, and the UK that was incinerated.
Paul Craig Roberts explained how this happens very clearly at the European/Russian Crisis, Delphi, Greece, June 20-21, 2015.
‘Sanctions are contrary to Europe’s interests. Nevertheless European governments accommodated Washington’s agenda. The reason was explained to me several decades ago by my Ph.D. dissertation committee chairman who became Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs. I had the opportunity to ask him how Washington managed to have foreign governments act in Washington’s interest rather than in the interest of their own countries. He said, “money.” I said, “you mean foreign aid?” He said, “no, we give the politicians bags full of money. They belong to us. They answer to us.”’
Thanks for the analysis, making sense out of the nonsensical! The one complaint I have is with dismissing the British as irrelevant and their military as incapable. I think that depends which nation is making the assessment. Russia, China and others may have nothing to fear, but many nations are not so fortunate. The UK still has power, combined with extensive experience in how to wield it, even if the sun has set on the Empire.
The British just cut their total troop numbers down to something like 72500. You can’t intimidate anybody with a force that size and they would be very hard pressed to compete conventionally, one to one, against even regional powers like Iran, Brazil, South Africa, Pakistan or Indonesia.
Maybe they could try their luck and invade Monaco or Brunei. That will really strike fear and terror in the Russian and Chinese military!!
”And here is the really scary thing: from the Russian point of view /…/ sinking a British ship might well be the best solution. Why? Because once this happens, it will be impossible to conceal from the western public opinion that its so-called ’leaders’ are reckless, incompetent, delusional and simply dangerous narcissists who are now willing to risk a continental war (possibly nuclear!) just in order to keep denying the reality of their irrelevance.”
Still more importantly, it will once and for all get rid of whatever hesitation there still might be in Russia about the benefits of putting the Western offal — from all walks of life — firmly in its place, thus boosting resolve, determination, confidence, and success to entirely new levels. If Pindos and Euro-trash curse this as being totally anathema to their ”core beliefs”, let them rage and fume. It’s so sweet whenever their tantrums are 100% genuine, driven by real pain. Afterwards, Russia could make a statement to the effect that ”Russia didn’t fight any terrorists here; Russia fought a barbarian sub-species in need of ethics, culture, and some elementary mental faculties”.
“Afterwards, Russia could make a statement to the effect that ”Russia didn’t fight any terrorists here; Russia fought a barbarian sub-species in need of ethics, culture, and some elementary mental faculties”.”
Muy bien explicado Saker! The provocations will not end. They want WWIII…for a variety of reasons.
One sure way to cancel all that ridiculous MICKY MOUSE debt is WW3
“First, the Russians remember how the Brits declared a 200 miles zone around the Malvinas Islands (“Falklands” in UK parlance) and immediately sunk the cruiser General Belgrano as soon as it entered this zone.”
It is different: The General Belgrano was sunk outside the exclusion zone but heading towards it.
See the map in this site
Yes, you are correct, I remember it now, it Belgrano was sunk OUTSIDE the zone.
Typical British sense of “fair play”, right?
(btw – knew two guys on the Belgrano and, thank God, they both survived)!
I met a lot of Argentians and the Falklands war is a big trauma in Argentine society until today. They have a big war memorial and several museums documenting well the incidents happening. A lot of men and boys left their live in the war by trying to gain back the Malvinas for Argentina. The Argentinans I met are always open for compromises though. They go from granting autonomy rights for the inhabitants their right to speak English and keep their houses. I even met an Argetinian who offered, that he would be happy if Argentina got at least one half of the Malvinas. But nothing of that ever happened.
The Brits however want ALL of the Malvinas, they don’t want to apologize and they don’t want pay back the money they stole from the Argentine people, which is still in the Bank of England. They don’t want an internationally organized referendum either. London still clinges to the remains of their colonial past.
And then the Brits have the AUDACITY to say bullshit like “Crimea was illegaly annexed” by Russia, when Crimea reallly belonged to Russia for centuries…
It isnt about the Malvinas/Falklands as such, it is about Antarctica and its oil. Control of Whale oil in the 19th century and ‘hydrocarbon’ oil today.
Look to how they slice and dice the continent :-
I was going to state that same fact, but found you already have, Andres. I even think to remember Marge being criticized in a British TV interview by that crime, which she totally denied (actually struggle to deny)
In my opinion Russia has had enough and, as mentioned in the article, will not retreat one step. I think few visiting this blog have the insight I have in the current crisis. However, OpSec rules and I can say nothing beyond this: If we are not at war by weeks end, I will be surprised. It’s that serious. That very serious.
As a Canadian, I value your insight. I always want to hear both sides of a story. I can’t see a good reason why Canadians and Russians can’t be friends. After all, Russia is our neighbor to the north and we are Russia’s neighbor to the north. Why can’t we just be neighborly?
“Why can’t we just be neighborly?”
Amongst other events perhaps Russians still remember Canadian Siberian Expeditionary Force of 1918 and their atrocities against civilians well proven by some dozen graves in Vladivostok which canada wouldnt even maintain without help from Russian navy.
To canada defense there was strong national opposition to such travesty and even mutiny prior to troops departure.
There was never an act of aggression in opposite direction. Times have changed and today every canadian is eager to teach that dictator Putin a lesson and send in an army of red stilletos wearing f**s.
Sometimes to move forward, you need to bury the hatchet. When you said “…every canadian is eager to teach that dictator Putin a lesson…”, by including me it makes that statement wrong. I prefer to learn from Putin by how he does things.
“Sometimes to move forward, you need to bury the hatchet”
Thats singular, do I read you right?
From historic prospective Russia never had a hatchet to burry with canada then I see your point you likely unintentionany presented. Anyway, a precursor for burrying hatchets both parties must have bit of a good will, right ?
Where is canadian good will?
How many canadien “instructors” are in Ukraine, how much of canadian military hardware is in Ukraine?
Want to talk Baltic republic? How many men in ME? That is present and lets not dig in dirty laundry basket of history. Remind you that the country isnt alone in its adventurism but definitely it is in lead. Hint, look who deputy PM is. One would hope that Castro’s son would have more symphaty for RF.
My intention is not to insult the nation nor yourself my friend but hold a mirror, somehow canadiens suffer from this fixed idea that they are good guys and if presented with opposing facts they get offended easily, bill C36 to rescue. The nation is barely a shadow of its former glory and it is a sad thing to see.
Not to divert from the subject of the head article which should be understood as a serious hint to everyone on planet and that includes canadians. Canada is large area incapable to protect its large territory politically (RF is about to take part of what canada considers its teritory) nor militarily, in event of large armed conflict it would get decapitated in one afternoon.
Poking bear with maple twig is not the best idea.
It would be a mistake to believe that because I am Canadian by birth, that therefore, I support what the Canadian government does.
I don’t unintentionally make any points. If you think I do, you are mistaken.
If you wish to criticize the Canadian government policy with regards to Ukraine or any other area in the world, go ahead. I am also free to criticize the Canadian government policy with regards to Ukraine or any other area in the world. It’s called a dissenting opinion.
I have no idea what you meant when you stated, “That’s singular, do I read you right?” Singular as opposed to plural?
“It would be a mistake to believe that because I am Canadian by birth, that therefore, I support what the Canadian government does.”
I applaud you for that, however historically such position didnt help much while Dresden was bombed. Nations are held collectively responsible. Whether born or naturalized you may not support gov policies and deeds but much of nation does. Simple gauge, over 60% of your peers submitted to “vaccination” voluntatily, RF some 15% that tells me that government policies are supported and obeyed and act of “vaccination” is elevated to ecstatic cheering for favourite vax manufacturer, trumping hockey night canada.
Once again my intentions are to show a mirror, not to criticise only to state abvious.
First step to canadian renesance is knowledge of itself and overcome struggle to find its identity, well good luck with that as what used to be healthy core of nation is rapidly deluted by massive immigration.
“I am also free to criticize the Canadian government policy” you are not! Test it and post a sound government opposing comment on any of MSM site and see your freedom of expression in practice. Thats before bill C10 and bill C36 becomes law.
(none are more enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free. Goethe)
So, when next provocation against RF happens and our lights stay on, whooof, be relived as hammer hits yet another empty chamber in this global russian rulette game revolver.
Whether or not I am free to criticize the Canadian government policy is not determined by whether or not I can post an uncensored post on a MSM site. Since I seldom read a MSM article and, if I did, I would not waste my time making a post whether it would be censored or not.
You said that “…over 60% of your peers submitted to ‘vaccination’ voluntarily.” So what? Did you think I had not noticed that people in Canada are taking what is called a “vaccine”? Freedom is best judged by whether you have freedom from the tyranny of the majority. I have no interest in taking a preemtive treatment for a disease that I might never get as getting the disease relies on the weakened condition of your immune system, as any disease does. “It’s not the overpowering invader we must fear but the weakened condition of the victim.” -William Albrecht.
It is not my intention to bellitle you nor insult you because that would not serve purpose of this forum and this particular comment section themed after the article about near skirmish in Black Sea.
Here is my closing statement.
You missed few points I tried to convey to you so Goethe was right.
Canada just like many other nations is active participant in such provocations while risking rapid escalation and putting whole planet in harms way.
I too am Canadian and dont believe media about numbers of people taking the vaxx all data is being distorted to make people believe majority are being vaxed to coerce tthe rest into accepting it. I have personally witnessed max vax locations with no one showing up it is mostly old over 70 who are getting it because they fear covid and the young under 30 who are convinced that life will go back to normal if they take vax.
What military hardware? Heavy, polished granite rocks and disks of vulcanized rubber?
Given Canada’s considerable Ukronazi infestation there is a mass base for Russophobia there which isn’t primarily driven by the MSM garbage (albeit strengthened by it).
“As a Canadian, I value your insight”
I admire your sentiments. As a part-time Australian, I would like to share them. Sadly, our ruling classes have other ideas. It is no secret that the Canadian Army’s snipers are proud of shooting an Afghan who was no threat to them at a distance of around 2km. By the same token, Australia is busy persecuting the whistleblower who revealed atrocities committed by Australian soldiers in Afghanistan.
FWIW, two years ago, in Kharkov, a taxi driver revealed to me that there were plenty of Australian soldiers there – doubtless helping the Ukrainians kill the inhabitants of the two republics.
Clearly, we are both ruled by scum who do whatever the AngloZionists demand of them. In the hope that an old lady in London will give them a piece of metal or a ribbon.
I am a Canadian too, and since 2014 have read the geopolitical analysis in The Saker, and I find it very informative. I do not trust western newspapers, and I have found that they lie continuously. Politicians in the western world are paid to wage war against Russia and now China too, by big financial groups who want to enter the two nations and steal their resources. There is no reason “why we should not be neighbors….”
To say the least: the constellation Saturn square Uranus square Mars this week carries weight to your opinion.
My Astro-techer, Döbereiner once said: “Saturn/Uranus is the basic -mixture of explosive, and
Mars definitely is the igniter.”
But well, sometimes the same constellation is a catastrophe, another time it is just a catarrh, so Carl Jung.
1999, the Kosovo-War was waged under the square of Saturn/Uranus.
Mankind is on Earth to watch and reflect.
Thank you Saker for the clarity you bring to your very sobering analysis. I agree that if the territorial waters of Russia are violated again then she must respond with force. The degree to which force options should be used you outline accurately IMO. I see Russia as having escalation dominance and fully capable of defending the Motherland. I hope that the deranged faction of the Empire, along with its puppets and poodles can be brought to heel.
If seeking to disable and detain any modern warship such as HMS Defender or an Arleigh Burke, the greatest challenge would be doing so without sinking the ship. Modern warships are unbelievably fragile, since there is no possible defence against the heavier warheads that can be used to attack them. A battleship armoured with 16 inches of steel would simply be torpedoed below the waterline and sunk.
HMS Defender would be extremely easy to sink. So the mission of disabling her would have to carefully planned and carried out with kid gloves.
Target the bridge?
Cf, Led Zepellin song
has anybody seen the bridge …
where’s that confounded bridge?
Not really that hard to disable a warship using adapted conventional means as well as unconventional ones. Just needs a little creativity (not even electronics is required).
Call it managing expectations. The west expects that their constant provocations will be met with weakness and conciliatory measures, therefore that expectation needs to be reset. Western leaders will no doubt squeal like little girls in an appeal to world opinion when Russia “aggresses” them, but their appeal will fall on deaf ears to anyone who matters and they’ll think twice next time, which is the real point anyway. In child rearing terms, Russia needs to establish boundaries with the infantile former hegemon baby that is the US. Firm boundaries. Could be enough to tip the balance of power against Biden, as his administration is coming under attack from all sides – internal as well as external – these days. Might see some war crimes tribunals in my lifetime yet!
The AngloZionist Empire is driven by the notion that some Europeans think they’re “chosen” by God to range around the planet, displacing indigenous people, stealing their land and resources, and finally destroying everything in a final apocalyptic Götterdämmerung.
Zionism in the USA is a death cult. Both Russia and Iran figure into their crazy end-times eschatology. They actually believe that Putin is the biblical Gog and Russia is the land of Magog. An attack by Iran on Israel will be the precursor to Armageddon. These nutters are the heart and soul of Trump’s base. They support what the Ashkenazim are doing in Palestine just as they supported Manifest Destiny and slavery in another century. May Heaven preserve us all from the wrath of the Christian Zionists and the chosenites.
The reason is spiritual: the West knows that it has been under apostasy (at the hands of the “Venetians”) for more than a thousand years, and orthodoxy is the mirror that horrifies them to look at.
My guess is the “Venetians” you refer to are the same folks that Jesus threw out of the Temple back in the day. They continue to work their Babylonian Money Magick behind the scenes on most of the world’s governments and are behind all of the world’s wars.
It’s important to remember, though, that this is an apocalyptic death cult that may not even be human anymore, maybe some AI profit algorithm that has no use for actual human beings at all and is bent on depopulating the planet of anything even remotely human. Maybe they’ll keep a few of us around as pets. I would make a very bad pet, though.
You wrote, “Yes, I know, Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi tried to appeal to the people of the West and, in both cases, the democratic and free western media completely obfuscated these admittedly naive and clumsy attempts. But if Putin speaks directly to the people of the West, and explains to them what a war (even a conventional one) would mean for Europe, they would have to listen..”
If Putin were to make a speech that is for the West, but deliver it instead to the SCO (but still aimed at the West), the media might listen.
I think that he should invite the BBC and CNN and maybe France24 and Euronews for “a major statement” and they would even interrupt their regular broadcasting to air Putin’s “message to the West”. If they don’t, then the Kremlin might want to call it Putin’s “warning to the West”.
With the greatest of respect sir……let me say that you know better than that.
The West (politicians and media) would never give Putin a direct platform to western voters that allows Putin to frame the news narrative.
And even if Putin gave such speech, not even 10% of the US population would watch it. Collectively, USAers are wholly ignorant of domestic and international politics (bad) AND have no desire to change it (worse )
Yep, I made a lengthy comment to that effect.
Poutine l a fait en 2018 lorsqu il avait presente les nouvelles armes russes et avait dit “ecoute nous maintenant”.
Tous les medias occidentaux avaient fait venir des “analysts” qui ont tous dit que c etait soit de la propagande soit des menaces.
Je pense que la russophobie dans les medias occidentaux est tellement forte que si Poutine devait s exprimer d une telle maniere son discours serait detoure est presente comme une menace pour l occident et que ce serait utilise pour justifier encore plus d escalade est de russophobie.
La verite est que la Russie ne peut parler a personne en occident. Les responsables politiques sont des fous et le peuple ne connait rien des risques de guerre.
A mon humble avis la seule chose que la Russie peut faire c est de gagner autant de Temps que possible pour se preparer au mieux a une guerre dont la probabilite augmente annee apres annee. Maintenant les risques sont tres eleves. Le niveau de tensions est tel que la moindre nouvelle provocation incomprehension ou erreur D appreciation peut declencher l enfer.
Yandex translation. Mod:
Putin did it in 2018 when he presented the new Russian weapons and said “listen to us now””
All the Western media had brought in “analysts” who all said that it was either propaganda or threats.
I think that Russophobia in the Western media is so strong that if Putin were to express himself in such a way his speech would be detour is presented as a threat to the West and that it would be used to justify even more escalation is russophobia.
The truth is that Russia cannot speak to anyone in the West. Politicians are crazy and the people know nothing about the risks of war.
In my humble opinion, the only thing that Russia can do is to save as much Time as possible to prepare as best as possible for a war whose probability increases year after year. Now the risks are very high. The level of tension is such that the slightest new provocation misunderstanding or error of appreciation can trigger hell.
Sadly I agree with Laurent. Putin could say what he liked, even the best speech ever made by anyone, and the west would paint it negatively.
while it’s undoubtedly merely wishful thinking, i believe russian scientists & putin have gamed this…& will simply cut all EM. all will sit dead ducks waiting to be rescued. i hope putin allows them to wait & wait while the rest of the world tries not to laugh too loudly.
I’m afraid the West would simply bill it as another Russian threat, a clear example of its aggressive nature, a threat in the face of which we in the West should unite and challenge, showing no signs of weakness like appeasement.
A week ago the German Newspaper “Die Zeit” published an article by Vladimir Putin: https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2021-06/ueberfall-auf-die-sowjetunion-1941-europa-russland-geschichte-wladimir-putin
where he describes the developments of the last decades from the Russian perspective and at the same time calls for enhanced cooperation. This was hardly mentioned in German media and attacked very hard by the usual anti-russian crowd. But it is basically an unfiltered speech to the West, at least to the German elites.
Yesterday they put Russia on the “corona virus mutation country list”, thus destroying any travel between Germany and Russia again (14 days of very hard quarantine, nobody with a normal job would be able to afford that). But it is very safe to travel to Ukraine, of course…
I think some people are working very hard on building the new iron curtain; and the stupidity of the masses will be used to frame any response by Russia (esp. if blood flows) as agressive, unexpected, out of proportion and with a “we told you so”, making the few people who speak up for a different approach here in Germany look like idiots.
As C.J.Hopkins recently pointed out, half the west’s population is living in an alternative reality. I had the impression that the Russians have been sending clear messages for years. It doesn’t hurt to try, if Putin wishes to try once more. Unfortunately I see it as something like me continually warning friends against the “vaccines”. I’m left wondering how many warnings it took before I just sound foolish.
Jack Nicholson said it best in “A Few Good Men”: we can’t handle the truth!
“Great” Britain is America’s poodle. Nothing more.
The British poodle cannot stand on its own two feet but needs its American master to protect it.
If the British poodle tries to provoke Russia again and is slapped own, will the Americans came to its rescue if they themselves are too weak and disorganized?
I don’t think so.
America–and its British poodle–will be exposed for what they truly are: gangster “democracies” who cannot even back up their threats.
Remember Ukies amassing forces and Rus sending them packing? This got VVP to sit with Joe and who knows what went down there. Not before Joe went back to basement, this one has triggered. They tried with Ukie and land, did not work, now trying with sea.
Once again it’s like a local thug bar brawl. Each shows their muscle, shouts loud and dares the other to throw the first punch. Neither wants to be accused of being first and taking disproportional damage in retaliation.
So, yes, IMO this is again a bigger version of stare down. Honestly, unlike UFC there’ll be no KO or Takedowns.
Can Someone please tell Me What 3B+ PU means
It means the three Baltic states plus Poland and Ukraine
Thank you. I looked in the article but didn’t find a translation. I figured out that PU = Poland and Ukraine.
P.U. in American English
used to express disgust, revulsion, etc. in response to an offensive odor or to anything felt to be unpleasant or offensive
3 Baltic states, Poland, and Ukraine.
Si los rusos hunden o dañan un barco de Iglaterra,sera la excusa perfecta para obligar a los alemanes a romper todos los lazos economicos con Rusia.Hasta ahora los interese empresariales alemanes han opuesto una titanica defensa de sus intereses.Pero el griterio y pataleo que se escenificaria,posiblemente los doblegaria y el nord stream2 se cegaria y el magnifico gas de esquisto de USA ocuparia parte de su lugar al modico doble precio.En fin con el barquito ese se hundiria la economia de la UE.Seguramente ese es plan.No solo los rusos practican la tactica de ¨tierra quemada¨.
Yandex translate. Mod:
If the Russians sink or damage a ship in England, it will be the perfect excuse to force the Germans to break all economic ties with Russia.So far German business interests have opposed a titanic defense of their interests.But the screaming and kicking that would be staged, possibly would bend them and the nord stream2 would be blinded and the magnificent shale gas from USA would take part of its place at the modico double price.In short, that boat would sink the economy of the EU.Surely that is plan.No only Russians practice scorched earth tactics.
I think you hit the nail in the head. And China ‘s belt and road would be finished for Europe too.
That’s actual a perspective…well i guess we have the reason here for all this S*it that goes down in the Black sea.
There is a Rumor that, under ALL circumstances, it is to prevent that Germany and Russia ever be meaningful cooperate, because then they would rule the world. Something that the Brits never would allow to be happen.
the West is a drugged-up, high idiot looking for a fight. Just let the West rot from cultural and economic gangrene.
Don’t (Russian friends) give the western media an excuse upon which to hoist and redirect all western problems.
Yes, it’s not fair that one side gets to keep breaking the rules. but life is not fair. but generally the universe rewards the patient, sensible, and those with a big stick yet who speak calmly.
Reading the comments on sinking a British ship, I’d like to remind everyone of that Canadian helicopter that ended up in tiny pieces at the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea near Greece in 2020. Let’s not be shocked by British resolve and/or the use of armed forces with it.
The only targets of real significance are the major cities of the USA. Americans have no idea of the horrors of war. Until the missiles rain down upon them, they will NEVER understand. Oh, and do NOT forget Israel or the international banking fraternity. They should all go up (or down) with the rest of us. Then, as Calcagus said, “they make a desert and call it peace.”
Such a speech by Putin would be completely distorted by the western medias and transformed into a threat to justify even more escalation. The truth is there is nobody to talk to in the west. Leaders are maniacs and people are just too ignorant to care about a possible war.
If the UK made this provocation in coordination with the US then it s not only phantom pain it s the US using its puppets and using UK s extreme russophobia to its advantage.
Pocking a bear is dangerous and using a stick is better than using your hand. That stick is the UK.
Now Russia said next time we bomb you. All nato knows it. If they do another provocation of the same kind it’s clear they want a clash and possibly a war. Russia can do 2 things: bomb the ship or send more serious warnings. I don’t know what is the best solution. If Nato wants escalation and war then I don’t know if giving them what they want is the best idea. Buying as much time as possible to keep modernizing the Russian armed forces seems the best idea because it means more hypersonic weapons more SU57 more boreis more everything available for nato targets when and if the time to use them comes.
Accross Europe and in the black sea Russia has escalation dominance and I think they should exploit that as much as possible.
The next provocation is a matter of time possibly a few weeks or even less. As far as Nato is concerned Crimea is ukraine not Russia so if Russia shoots to kill for nato Russia will be the aggressor and with the escalation process and the current hysteria and russophobia anything could happen.
Should Russia open fire against the uss Ross if it does the same thing in the current context?
I don’t know.
Last think I would like to say is that I am surprised by the reaction of the British. They spent the last 10 years to make Russia the bad guy a monster (Skripal non stop diabolisation and so on) and now That Russia fires at them they prefer ignoring the problem than using it to feed their russian threat propaganda even more? It s strange isn’t it?
Thank you Saker for the great analysis.
You have probably heard by now in yet another imbecilic show of “phantom pains for their lost empire” – the Brits buzzed the Russian warships playing war games in the Med with 3 F35s from their only aircraft carrier a few Khinzal seconds away.
Funny that Uncle Schmuel’s excuse for kicking the Turks out of their F35 programme is fear of the S400’s radars calling home to relay F35 targeting data, and here these RAF/RN cretins gave the Russian Navy that targeting info gratis.
Made me laugh.
I disagree :The American people are so brainwashed that no amount of evidence or logic touches them.
bingo, that should be a Russian proverb. just don’t forget to add Britons too.
The American people are so brainwashed that no amount of evidence or logic touches them.
Americans like are citizens of the German Third Reich–without the pretense of German culture, learning, philosophy, art, music, or literature.
In other words, Americans are McNazis.
As for America’s ”Christianity”: What’s the most compelling evidence Jesus wasn’t born in the US?
Three wise men don’t exist there.
Seriously, I think Russia should finally apply overwhelming force as it would bring immense benefits: Calling and instantly killing the West’s bluffing, undoing of the agent provocateurs inside Russia. Resolve, determination,confidence, and success boosted to entirely new levels. The West is going down the toilet; Russia and China are not.
China needs to do the same in the SCS simultaneously to not only 解放台湾 (liberate Taiwan) but also to violently humble the Americucks and whatever vassals they bring along with them. I am sick and tired of the collective West’s bigotry, lies, hubris, Zionism and their faggotry!
Proud to be Chinese, proud to support Russia as well!
We are someone in the West too, who are vomiting by the low life level of our societies, the hypocrisy, the falsehoods, the inhumanity and the childish political Intelligence and stupidity.
I think however both China and Russia have done it the right way so far. Slowly growing themselves stronger, and slowly drowning the false premises one by one, not falling into the trap of playing down to the Amerisucks game and level.
Many successes are in house today, Hong Kong, Syria, Corona stopped and returned, artificial Islands maintained, the truth about the opium trade and the cocaine trade out in the open, strengthening of both the Rubel and Renminbi as independent currencies, m.m.
Remember, to navigate a big sail boat’s direction toward a goal takes time and can only be done by zig zagging against the wind and by using the correct sails and positions by competent captains.
Be happy you both have competent teams on deck, it is not giving, and we should appreciate and support it when we have it.
Peter Hitchens, an English writer and journalist who is deeply critical about his country politics, wrote in his last article in the ‘Daily Mail’ also relaunched in his blog that now he would not be surprised if a Russian ship enters the Malvinas territorial water claiming that they recognise the Argentinian sovereignty over it
Peter Hitchens is unfortunately typical of most British journalists who need a job: he is a Russophobe when required to be so by his editor. In a previous Sunday Mail article he ranted about the ‘malevolent Russian leaders’ and implied that the Russian economy was a basket case – his comments showed that he had neither visited nor researched Russian politics since the 40 years when he was a student there. So much for any expectation that this ‘Journalist’ has done any competent research into the subject of his pontifications.
Peter Hitchens often spells the truth, compared to most of his colleagues, like when he says that it doesn’t exist any special relationship between UK and USA but only a total subjugation and that Britain didn’t win WW2, but I understand that to keep his job in a mainstream newspaper he has to concede something to the western propaganda
Imagine what a Western propaganda coup it would be if a British warship bristling with weapons sailed within a few km of Crimea and nothing happened (save perhaps a disputed warning) and shortly thereafter a Russian ship was disabled or sunk thousands of km from home port off the coast of Argentina.
Plenty of reasons there to kick the Unilateral States and Perfidious Albion out of the U.N. and NATO for two hypocritical stunts.
That just ain’t going to happen.
Geo-political Poker Game . West power bluffing become obvious .
West Powers need new game -soon. Intimidation does not work.
West Soft Power needs innovation. Or Decline of the West will accelerate .
I remember this video that came out when Obama was about to attack Syria. Seems as appropriate as ever:
Thanks for the video. Brilliant!
I wish that articles such as this would consider not using the term “the Brits” to describe these guys.
The generic terms “Great Britain” and “Brits” imply a union of the dominant English with their underlings the Scots, the Welsh and some of the Irish.
As a child of Scottish and Irish grandparents I can tell you that we don’t count ourselves in with the English and feel no love for them. They practiced colonization and genocide against their Scots Welsh and Irish neighbours, and then took their damnable show on the international road.
I wish everyone would call them by their name.
They are the English.
Look, I am huge fan and supporter of both the Irish and the Scots. I think that Ulster should join the Republic and that Scotland should declare independence. I am acutely aware of the genocidal policies of the English in Ireland and I even have a weak spot for the IRA (in spite of totally disagreeing with some of their actions!). That both me and my daughter like to play Celtic musing (and songs like “Black and Tans” or the “Foggy Dew” – me guitar, her fiddle – probably accounts for at least some of my sympathies for everything Celtic :-)
But right now the English run all of the UK and there are people from all the British isles on British ships.
This being said, my reply to you is this: yes, I understand and agree with you, but you (collective you, meaning people of Celtic ethnicity) need to LIBERATE YOURSELVES FROM THE ENGLISH. Today the English ARE the masters and the Irish, Scottish and Welsh *are* their underlings. As long as Celtic lands will remain English colonies, you will all be called “Brits”. It is unfair but it is also today’s reality.
My romantic dream? I Celtic Confederacy bringing together Irish, Scots, Welsh and Breton nations.
Do I sound pro-Irish enough ;-)
PS: Celtic music is very popular in Russia. Just saying, you will have allies :-)
And they like Robbie Burns as well!!!
Saker, that’s a very simplistic view. How are ordinary English people responsible for the hyenas in charge? Sinn Fein openly pushes the LGBTQ agenda. You think Brendan ‘The Dark’ Hughes fought the army in the street for Drag Queens? The less said about the Queen of the Amazons in Edinburgh the better. The Welshies? Listen to Meic Stevens’ Rain in the Leaves EP and dream of Pembrokeshire in the sixties. Talking about music you appear to have sidestepped some of the greatest music ever produced. By English men and women. The Canterbury Scene, the folk revival, (Nic Jones singing Annan Water) the Prog Rock Scene, King Crimson 1969, Pink Floyd Jethro Tull 1970-71, Led Zep in Australia 1972, Genesis 1973. Kossoff, Beck, Page, Clapton, Thompson. Listen to the middle bit of the Floyd’s Echoes and understand what has been done to my country since 1971. These creatures running the show have no sense.
The greatest sporting spectacle in the world remains a British Lions tour. Second Test in South Africa 2009, the last NZ tour? Unbelievable intensity. The hardest Irishmen running with English ‘guys’. Rest assured TPTB will do their best to destroy that too. This is about the haves and have nots. We are all West Belfasters now.
Before I get pilloried yes it’s the British AND Irish Lions. But my point remains the same. Like Waters/Gilmour, it is the tension between the two that sparks the beauty.
How are ordinary English people responsible for the hyenas in charge?
They vote them in power. They support them. And, crucially, they do not fight them.
Whom else would you blame for BoJo risking WWIII?
but there’s been a criminal take-over in all the countries of the west – America too – yet how are we supposed to get them out of power. People are tricked into voiting for the least evil one.
All I can say is that I doubt we’re even going to be rid of them after nuclear war. We have to get rid of them though.
You don’t have a moral responsibility to get the criminals out of power…
you DO have a responsibility to at least TRY with everything you got.
We all have to try
Together, we will eventually succeed, as long as we never surrender.
Does that make sense?
Saker you’re saying my vote counts? News to me. The collective can do their worst. It’s about personal responsibility. Can’t argue with the music though, can you? Here’s a token of my esteem. Thanks for all you do. https://youtu.be/3Z3A5Tgy47M
I am saying that all of us have a moral duty to oppose evil, violence and imperialism by all means possible
For the last 30 years in every election i have spoiled my ballot by writing none of the above on it . Its a way of letting those in charge that they have no legitimacy.
I agree with the Saker here. We the people vote them in, pay them to do our dirty work, and then as crybabies accuse our reserve parents the politicians for not having done their parent job properly when our selfish choices goes wrong.
On the personal level I have not voted since year 2000 nor followed MSM. I makes you an adult under God’s guidance.
A question. Isnt King Crimson part of the Empire’s propaganda here? https://youtu.be/v0sxt86B4a4 Stalin, 21st Century Schizoid man .
I prefer ‘The Night Watch’ https://youtu.be/WwFYy_Th7BA
‘Ordinary’ English people vote the ‘hyenas in charge’ more often than not.
I am English living in England and I can tell you that on a personal level English, Irish and Scottish people get on very well together. Obviously the peoples of the United Kingdom and the international power of Big Business and the City of London are not the same thing.Your idea of a confederation of Celtic peoples is interesting but it reminds me that the European Union already had a somewhat similar idea which was part of a putative regionalism project designed to break up nation states in order to augment power centred in Brussels. In this I remember that Scotland was cut down the middle with the eastern side forming a region with areas on the other side of the North Sea and Western Scotland forming part of an Atlantic region incorporating bits of Ireland and Spain.
Regarding the Falklands/Malvinas. Those islands are wholly populated by people of British origin and were defended by Britain. As I understand it the Argentinians were never much interested in the islands until oil prospecting began. Attacking the Falklands also served as a jingoistic diversion for the Argentinian people. There is a principle to discuss here. If a group of say Russian people, or any other people happen to inhabit a territory nearer to a bigger country than their home country should they be absorbed into the nearer country? How about Kaliningrad? Anyway thanks for all the work you put into the Vineyard of the Saker which I value.
I can tell you that on a personal level English, Irish and Scottish people get on very well together.
Yes, I know, and I ALSO get along with the English people very well. The problem, at least in my opinion, is that the English are in a similar position to the Turks. What do I mean by that?
The Turks (and the English) are amongst the nicest people on the planet – they are super friendly, welcoming, kind, tough and very charming. But when they become ORGANIZED into a state, they are the worst of the worst, sorry, but history really shows that. And the way England treated the Irish reminds me of the way the Ottomans treated the Serbs. Now, I don’t believe in collective guilt, but what about collective RESPONSIBILITY? For example, Russia did many bad things in her history (mostly against her own people), and I as a Russian hold no guilt for what happened in the past. But does that mean that I can totally remove myself from what my fellow-Russians did? I don’t think so.
For the Malvinas, you are simply misinformed. You are wrong about how Argentinians felt about these islands (while most Brits had no idea where they were, each grade school student in Argentina did). Yes, it was a diversion by Galtieri and his gang, but 99.99999% of Argentinians were “set on fire” when the Malvinas were liberated. And they came close to winning, had it not been for the actions of the Argentinian commander in chief on the Islands.
As for Kaliningrad, this is not a colony but more like a Russian “Gibraltar”.
Anyway, I am not anti-English in the least, but I am anti English imperialism, colonialism, racism and messianism. That is also my beef with Turkey (or Japan for that matter).
I hope that this clarifies what I meant.
A bit of Jeffersonian wisdom:
“Nothing gives one person so much advantage over another as to remain always cool and unruffled under all circumstances.”
“I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical.”
“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriot and tyrants”.
Russia has displayed an unmeasurable amount of patience and coolness than anyone could have imagined. Calling them “our western partners” is not offensive, does not dehumanize them, does not harm them. And yet Russia has been called worse and worse as time is being consumed, by those kindly called “western partners”.
A little rebellion has not been displayed by the citizens of those western latitudes. And yet everyone seems to want for Russia to correct the situations, to teach lessons to their governments, to relieve them of their yokes.
In the Western world the citizens are as much responsible for the current situation as their clownish, and senile, and demented authorities.
No one is doing a thing. Some boast of having millions of weapons and billions of rounds of ammunition, but it is all just dead weight.
The people are comfortable in their Mac Bodies, their Mac mansions and their Mac Debt.
They do not take responsibility for their own part in the scene that is about to take humanity towards the precipice.
The ones that have designed this scenario are well known, have been clearly known for a couple of centuries at least. The elite, the inbred .1 percent of humanity, and they are responsible for them!, No, coping out does not work, it does nothing.
Russia has done the dirty work on behalf of humanity , the Khazars, the Teutonic Knights, the Mongols, the Swedes, the Napoleons, the Ottomans, and the Hitler´s of this world, have been put in their proper place, some learned their lesson taught by Russia, others choose to ignore those lessons, and the heavy price Russia paid for saving Humanity time and again. Yes, Russia has changed the course of History time and again. And for the better, everytime.
President Putin has remarked that the next great war will not be held in Russian soil, place that in your algorithms and take it to those you have put in power and make them pay.
Russia has paid a great price already, and yet Mother Russia is willing and capable of
sacrificing again her sons and daughters.
Where is the gratitude? Where is the empathy?, and where is the contribution that Western citizens are willing to give?
Jefferson is waiting.
check this: https://tinyurl.com/rstxwetf
Reading and listening to Lavrov or Putin, one doesn’t even need to talk about these tings, however important they are, and they truly, truly are, but the same has always been the case, west bashing from the westerners, never mind that western values are not a little part of Russia also.
Tony Blair is a Scot.
Born: Anthony Charles Lynton Blair; 6 May 1953; Edinburgh, Scotland.
Just saying! :-)
Any ship or ships which continue to sail within the Russian territorial waters, if they do not leave after being warned, will have to be sunk. The reason is that Russia will have to have inarguable proof that the ship had been within Russian territorial waters when it was struck. The ship must not remain afloat or it could be towed by an allied vessel into international waters, and then Russia could be blamed for an unjustified attack.
All this talk of sinking ships is just, well, a bit frightening.
Would it be more reasonable for a number of Russian submarines to pop up, say, 5 miles off the coast of San Diego, or Washington DC, or at the mouth of the Thames?
no, not 5 miles, but 13 would be nice :-)
but there are better places (US/UK naval bases)
Thanks for great article and thanks for astute comments.
Could it be that longer RF waits with any meaningfull response lesser opponent they face? This current incident will drain more energy from the West while RF is only observing and learning about this demented patient bouncing of wall padding trying to get out of its straight jacket.
I don’t know if such strategy lessens chance of global nuclear inhilliation.
West is collectively on steep decline in every aspect and RF knows it.
The image you have created – “this demented patient bouncing off wall padding trying to get out of it’s straight jacket”, is brilliant, and much appreciated. Thank you! : )
The empire wants war. The Davos crowd isn’t happy that Russia and China said no to the great reset. Time is running out for the insane cabal running the show in Washington. The empire crumbles as we watch. Russia should show no mercy. I remember reading a article here about the May day victory parade in Russia. All the veterans were well aware of the coming situation. Russia knows war, the west has no idea.
slight correction here –
‘The Davos crowd isn’t happy that Russia and China said no to the great reset’
should be –
The Davos crowd isn’t happy that Russia and China said no to ‘their white-supremacist version’ of great reset
… that renders sovereignty of a country under corporations, that TPTwannaB milks and have total control, and extend that unchecked power and push it unto all world populations, as seen in the vaxx scam here, making them, a few dozen of them, the status of ‘god on earth’.
They dont like russian and china making new definition of what is ‘money’, in the multipolar world, thus every law that come out of that, into national political-financial systems, which is the formation of the new world, which would reveal the truth, in turn, that their heads, every one of them, have a price tag, just like all of us, the mortals. We known them by name and by address.
… but RC(I) is, I stress here again, is, on their ver of great reset, for their ppl, and for their dream future. RC’s great reset, you can say, is getting rid of the ‘whiteness’ that dont belong naturally on their respective lands.
and thats why, ‘they’ have gone mad dag, trying to get a reaction from RC, thinking their scripted preferred sequence of events will bend to their command of ‘reality’. Dementia and delusional, needs new definition.
Thus the question here perhaps is better asked as –
Why shouldn’t the Russians sink a British ship the next time around (when it can and fully justified in accordance to the International laws)?
(ditto china too – the chinese internet (civilian) army is questioning why VVP let them off so easily and demanding CCP shoot down anything from the west that sail into SCS, w known hostile intention.)
thank you da Boss the Saker. Stay safe.
What US is doing there is incomprehensible and outright insane. Wonder if they take it into account that war in Europe could lead to war in Asia. China has Taiwan to unify, North Korea has south korea to unify and Iran has Israel to get rid of. That is a lot of fronts to deal with for US. What they are doing there doesn’t make much sense if they are sane. Otherwise either they are suicidal or they are doing it out of desperation.
We must never forget that this is not about ‘America v. Russia’. This is all about the Anglo-Zionist cabal of trillionaire financiers and their billionaire hi-tech flunkies v. the rest of the world. A broken America and Russia is what they want and war is how they intend to get it.
I keep trying to “game theory” why there’s such a push for war. What if it’s as simple as Covid isn’t working out as expected and they just need something bigger and better to make it all disappear down the memory hole. We, being grown ups, are all looking for a logical motive. What if they’re just a bunch of narcissists making it up as they go along?
Dear Saker and Moderators,
Thank you for the article and forum. I have a couple questions RE SeaBreeze (SB) 21 if you’d like to comment:
1. What are your thoughts on SB 21 providing cover for import of lethal weaponry into Ukraine? What likely types of weaponry would be lethal (?) – and would a Russian intervention at some point be needed, to counteract the effectiveness of such weapons?
2. What in your opinion is the radius of distance from Crimea that foreign vessels would not be allowed to penetrate – by a single inch – under any circumstances? (ie. the risk of manned/unmanned self-detonating vessel)
3. Is there a vulnerability from the surface (via divers or explosion) to Turkstream or Bluestream?
Thanks for any comment.
For the last 500 years, Europe and it’s offspring has devastated the world, and denied freedom to others.
Now Europe has got it’s just desserts. Evil has turned on evildoers, and now they find themselves to be irrelevant.
actually, I would say 1000 years, at least since 1054 and immediately after, the First Crusade
I think The Russian Military should explore another way to communicate to U.S- NATO its vulnerability by interfering with their ship’s electronic systems. I’ll bet many of those bridge officers are completely dependent upon satellite networks to guide them and don’t even know how to operate a sextant for celestial navigation.
Why not destroy one or more military navigational satellites rather than confront the offending vessel that crosses into Crimean waters? No damage to the ship or loss of crew members is necessary and the evidence of “Who did it,” is floating in space with all the other junk that’s up there now.
We have already seen how Russia scared the crew of the USS Donald Cook in the past by electronically jamming its ship’s systems. Isn’t this latest incident with merry ‘ole England time to kick it up a notch?
Um, the bridge navigators do know celestial navigation.
No, taking out a nav satellite won’t resolve the issue. (can of worms anyway re space militarisation)
The story of the USS Donald Cook is a nice fable, cooked up in a propaganda whirl by a all too keen media, to impress the public. Not that Russia was /is keen to show all the cards for such a minor event).
(jamming weapon systems is doable but would not get the ship out of territorial waters any quicker).
As far back as 2006, the U.S. Navy had dropped celestial navigation training from its curriculum (Naval Academy, OCS and other specialist schools) for commissioned officers due to the heavy reliance on computer technology and satellite networks.
See: https://www.military.com/daily-news/2016/01/29/break-out-the-sextant-navy-teaching-celestial-navigation-again.html .
See: https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/u-s-navy-resumes-celestial-navigation-training-04042016/ .
As the articles show, the training in the use of a hand-held modern sextant resumed in 2011. Taking into consideration the fact that many surface warfare officers have 20 year careers in the Navy means a few hundred “bridge-qualified” officers do not know the difference between a sextant and an astrolabe and rely solely on ECDIS (Electronic Chart Display and Information Systems).
‘hundreds’ out of… How many?
ECDIS is the mainstay for normal nav ops.
Poke the Truth, You want a Space War?
No. This is about sea navigation rights and responsibilities. There is a century of international law the British and US are defying. Russia has every right to enforce their 12-mile limits. And they will have every right to disable or sink the next intruder. These are war ships intruding, not a fishing vessel or superyacht.
The Russians don’t have to accommodate the aggression of the Brits, the Ukies, the Americans or any other fools.
Someone comes to your house and tries to use your front lawn for parking his truck, you have the right to deprive him of his truck. If he threatens you with a gun, you have the right to end the threat.
So, the Russians will do something very strong or very clever. The British or Americans will likely lose a vessel permanently or for a year or two of repairs. Their crew and captain may be lost or diminished.
The Russians have the law and the might to enforce their rights.
They need to make an historic example of the next miscreant who transgresses their territorial boundaries.
In this last episode with the Defender they put 20 aircraft over the zone. I suppose they will have 80 over the flotilla exercising there now. (And a few will quite likely “spill the coffee” of those in the NATO bridges, like Maverick in Top Gun.)
The Russians should stream live the next confrontation. That will be much more effective than a speech or nicely wrought written article.
Show the world who ‘owns’ the Black Sea.
Now the dutch are getting in to the act. Perhaps someone can tell me what possible business the dutch have in Black Sea, let alone Taiwan and SK roaming around our lake.
“The Netherlands’ Ministry of Defence has accused Russian fighter jets of harassing the Dutch frigate Evertsen as it sailed through the Black Sea on 24 June. The ministry said that the actions of the jets contradicted “the right to free use of the sea”.
The Ministry of Defence claimed that Russian fighter jets had carried out mock attacks on the warship and jammed its communication systems for five hours. The Dutch military further said that the jets had created a dangerous situation at sea by flying low and close to the vessel as it sailed southeast of the Crimean Peninsula.”
Noisy this afternoon, lots of airframes active out over the near Sea, we can hear them clearly.
friend Auslander do keep us posted :)
I personally am not expecting anything, than the usual scirpted sequence of events,
… but one may never know
… the big bro might just push the little bro over the red line and thus trigger the sparks – wont be the first time big bro do smth like that
… if it need be, we will just change the weather and spoil the party (ya they are not worth space toys – space toys are more for continental grade)
still so stay alert and stay safe
… otherwise, enjoy your day w your family :)
The Dutch MoD whined about being in international waters, yet the Russian MoD pointed out that the flights were only made after the warship was headed towards the Kerch Straits. Dose of electronic interference too to make the message clearer.
Who is next going to try to do a FONOP?
Do I want a space war????
No, I don’t want a space war or any kinetic war for that matter, especially over a trivial matter.
The British Navy is replete with foolish, effeminate men who made an intentional navigational error and entered the territorial waters of the Crimean Federal District of the Russian Federation.
Their vessel did not drop anchor at sea (analogous to someone parking their truck on my lawn) but steamed in defiance of a Russian naval order to correct their course and head away from Crimean District controlled waters.
The only harm the Limeys did was to insult and mock the Russian bear and cause her to stand up on her haunches and roar loudly, which she did with voracity. The Russians “politely” encouraged the offender to move quickly by safely firing warning shots and releasing explosive ordnance far ahead of the ships forward position so as not to harm her or the crew.
But no that’s not good enough for you, is it? You want the Russians to attack the ship and damage or even sink it and start a real war!
Mother Russia is not the U.S.-NATO consortium; she does not lower herself and behave in such a disgusting manner as the warmongers do. She is patient and avails herself of all legal measures under international law to resolve.
She is above all that and that is why we care for her, love her and only, only when a bullet strikes her breast or injures her people will she act with the ferocity of hellish fire that real men have lived through to tell their tale and adventure novelists write about.
I am against war as long as all other reasonable options remain, even to the point of absorbing the first mortal blow and the stupid British did not deliver one for sure. So I respectfully disagree with your opinion (which is a rare occurrence).
One thing I would not do is underestimate the stupidity and narcissism of the Western masses themselves. There is a reason the West, particularly the USA, is stuck with such corrupt, visionless, decrepit and add as many negative adjectives you like, leaders. The American population is so cowed and brain-washed they accept the worst of everything of any developed country and even a number of countries that are not “developed.”
I remember a year or two ago where an early warning system covering Hawaii “accidently” sent texts messages to all cell phones on the islands warning of an incoming nuclear attack. Of course, whether triggered intentionally or not, it was a false alarm. What I found so revealing was the reaction of the population was the non-reaction after the fact. Everyone just meekly went back to business as usual without nary a murmur. You’d think there would be massive outrage and demand for accountability. Why was this alarm triggered? Who is responsible for the system? On an existential level, why do these weapons even exist? Are we to live forevermore with this sword of Domocles over our collective heads?
My suspicion is that, should the Russians be forced to down a NATO vessel, the heavily propagandized and deluded Western Public, again particularly in the USA, will scream bloody vengence. The US public has the most advanced and severe case of Stockholm syndrome seen in history. Exhibit A is 9/11 where the wrath of the Empire was not directed at the countries the actual hijackers hailed from but countries that had nothing to do with it. The US population, much like the cheering Israelis every time there is an attack on the hapless Palestinians, roared in blood-thirsty ignorant approval. Unfortunately for the rest of humanity, the West has the leadership the Western masses deserve.
Always good to hear from someone with an astute and analytical mind. Thank you.
there were huge protests all over the west against the ‘war in Iraq’
Maybe you weren’t in them though. I know I wasn’t.
I know The West.
Any Putin’s speech to western public would be useless and pointless.
I am not sure that Brits or anyone in the West is crazy enough to do similar provocation again.
But …they will probably continue with provocations.
They want war desperately … OK, they will have war.
Next time the best would be to capture British war ship…that would be real humiliation.
If war happen, good for Russia to clear Black Sea from all ships of non-Black Sea powers. And to finish with Kiev scum forever.
I would also roll over Baltic states
And arrogant Brits…they really really really need lesson …they need lesson to remember forever
People, please stop refer to the three cheap Baltic prostitudes to be some kind of states! They do not deserve to be called like that! They are nothing more but very small, de-populated little provinces, with no economy, hardly any population, and totally and slavishly serving their Western Masters. There is obviously no other way for them to survive – they were willing to sell themselves, and cheaply! This is what they have chosen for themselves. So, please stop affording them the “state” moniker, they are nothing of the kind – just cheap, little, sold out, despised and pathetic prostitudes. Nothing more!
The appropriate term is
Brown And Little Tiny Insect CountrieS.
Amusingly, the Baltic fiefdoms provide a shining textbook example of what really deserves the label ”Stockholm syndrome”. Right in the wake of their fabulous ’independence’, they turned to Sweden’s rapacious financial sector which had long since been given free rein by Sweden’s neoliberal governments. The Balts got showered in public and private debt to such an extent that it nearly collapsed Sweden’s entire banking industry. Of course, massive cuts in social spending were enacted for the benefit of Sweden’s banksters. Predictably, the deluded Baltic fiefdoms did collapse fast and hard.
Russia got out from the horrendous 1990s and has got its act together. It was Russia’s riches that were supposed to prop up the decadent West and its cheap Eastern European prostitutes. 30 years on, apeshit stunts like Navalny, Skripal, Sea Breeze, and apeshit pronunciamentos are all they can muster. Just imagine: So close to final, total victory and now they’re going down the toilet.
3 well planted missiles, City of London inc, Washington, Vatican and perhaps 4th one to NYC for good measures.
Forget trying to appeal to common sense from the peoples of the US/UK and the rest of the 5 eyes, they are too brainwashed and apathetic to be relied on for anything, courtesy of the cabal’s iron grip on media.
For now, this just in: Apparently NATO believes Russia is not ready to take it on, according to a number of quoted sources:
However, despite our attention being drawn to the military questions on defense / offense capabilities of NATO and the RF respectively, whether in the Black Sea or elsewhere, there may be a more hidden motive here, one not simply a case of the UK/NATO having lost the plot, or believing their own nonsense:
What if the primary goal is to play brinkmanship games — all the way until just short of actual hot war — in order to undermine Putin’s standing in Russia itself? The longer he practices restraint and keeps trying to reason with rabid dogs, the more the Russians may become enraged with all the increasing blatant provocations and what the citizens may view as the tolerance and apparent appeasement shown by Putin and co.
The collective West has long regarded Putin as the biggest impediment to their attempts to plunder Russia, ever since he effectively dragged Russia from their clutches all those years ago, and the chess-master has outplayed them since at every turn. They are getting more and more desperate.
Putin himself I am sure is well aware of this — which makes the current Black Sea area a very dangerous flashpoint indeed.
Beautiful summer morning in Sevastopol, sun is up for a while. Since anyone can hear, there has been not a sound of airframes for two days. Only sounds we can hear are our children’s foot pads as they take their morning amble.
Auslander 29.06.21 06:45.
“The sense of God’s presence -of the Supernatural – seems to me to penetrate Russian life more competely than that of any of the western nations”! ..H.P.Liddon, Canon of St.Paul’s.
God bless you and the Russian people!
Cheers from France.
I will think of you and your family if the events turned bad in the Crimea waters.
But there will not be another move like the provocative previous one with an english warship and US as well.
The message from the russian side was very clear. Next time the warship will be destroyed. Then what ?
For a Tyrant it is always very bad to lose a battle. It will also be very difficult to explain that this was a defensive action. I doubt that the bristish People is very concerned with the Crimea’s problem.
Gentle summer’s eve, pretty warm to day. SitRep is a bit different than this morning, pretty noisy the last few hours, lots of airframes audible but not visible.
”I doubt that the British people are very concerned with Crimea’s problem.”
That is correct. At the time of writing this, the round of 16 battle in the European Championship between Germany and England is going on at Wembley. I just couldn’t ignore the adorable behaviour of the predominantly English audience, loudly booing while the German National Anthem was playing. Scum.
Evolution seems to have gone into reverse in the UK since about 1950.
Pure nasi scum :-). To hide the fact they bankrolled the regime too.
It is wise not to be mesmerized by the “beauty” of one’s weapons. Every soldier on parade admires his shiny boots and buttons.
Nothing will happen as usual, as for 7 years now Russia never retaliated on anything except a few counter sanctions(they don’t care in the West they print as much fiat money as needed).
They are not that crazy.The big goal is the sept elections.They believe they can win them via their 5th column proxies.Maybe the real provocation is Covid back in force in Russia(more than 600 deaths/day).75.000 russians lost their life since january.It has nothing to do with the russian vaccines working or not(they do work in fact).Russians prefer not to be vaccinated en masse ok but it is an economic catastrophy.United Russia is about to lose the majority if nothing happen, which means a small diversion could also serve Putin indirectly.They even called Lavrov and Shoigu to be candidates.The idiots communists are playing with the West narrative.Nato does not need a war, their probable bioweapon(sars covid)already killed between 250 and 350k Russians (official nr is 136k).Health and population official services already talked about an even worse nr.
The Donbass war compared is peanuts(with all respect).
Conspiracy theorists and navalnytes are doing the job for the West, and the result is no lockdown, though hospitals can not handle the patients with delta variant in ICU.The people dying are mainly old or very old people, who used to vote for UR.Same for their families and friends.I’m not so sure that the Russians loved so much the way Russia handled the pandemy, not better than Bojo the clown, Bolsonaro, Trump etc
No need for an HMS game here.These NATO drills are just justification of NATO existing, good for the MIC, nothing else.Wars are via proxies in our times(see Syria,Donbass..).Even a Yougoslavia 2.0 is not possible anymore in 2021.
Personally, I think that the russians have shown a remarkable restrain in this particular incident. Have they been a lesser military, like the US or UK, they would’ve sent the tresspasser to the bottom of the sea.
the Russians always show remarkable restrain. They actually care about the populations of Europe and America – not like the ‘world leaders’ of those places.
I personally like the disabling of the propeller steering component and the radar mast, perhaps with a little Donald Cook thrown in. Then, if possible, tow the ship into Sevastopol, fly the crew to London, tow the ship back out to sea and sink it.
Nothing more humiliating.
In order to better understand the obstinacy with which the Ukraine/Intermarium/Crimea project is pursued it is imperative to underscore that it was a Zionist project from the get go, at the beginning of the 20th century. I will give some quotations from an article in ”Jewish Social Studies, Winter, 1981, Vol. 43, No. 1 (Winter, 1981), pp. 11-30 published by: Indiana University Press titled ”Max I. Bodenheimer: Advocate of Pro-German Zionism at the Beginning of World War I” by Jay Ticker.
“… in a 1902 memorandum presented to the German Foreign Ministry, Bodenheimer voiced ideological themes and arguments that would reappear in his approach to the German government a dozen years later, at the start of the war. Bodenheimer claimed that the Yiddish spoken by millions of East European Jews was a “popular German dialect,” based on Middle High German. He theorized that these Jews would be well- disposed toward Germany by linguistic affinity. Mass settlement of East European Jews in Palestine, as called for by the Zionist movement, could be a boon to German ambitions in the Near East. Were the German government to aid in the reestablishment of the Jews in their ancient homeland, it would receive the gratitude of the en- tire Jewish people. “The influence of Jewry in foreign lands would accrue to the ben- efit of Germany, and trade with Russia and the Near East would,” Bodenheimer claimed, “be promoted in no small measure,” by German support of Zionism. In his 1902 memorandum, Bodenheimer urged the German government to pres- sure the newly formed ‘Hilfsverein der deutschen Juden’ to work in cooperation with the Zionist movement. The Hilfsverein had been organized by rich, assimilated German Jews to do relief work, and spread German culture among Jews in Russia and the Near East. Bodenheimer argued that only by collaborating with the Zionists could the ‘Hilfsverein’ successfully promote German influence among Eastern Jews. He also explained that the international Zionist movement was currently controlled by pro-German leaders, and that if the influential founders of the ‘Hilfsverein’ were to demonstrate their active interest in Zionism, it would assure that in the future the leadership of the movement would continue ‘in German lands’…
s of the Zionist Organization. World War I provided the old guard with an opportunity to reassert its leader- ship. In the context of the war, one could argue convincingly that the Zionists and the German government might mutually benefit from cooperation. Alliance with a victorious Germany, dominant in the Ottoman Empire and in Eastern Europe, might result in the attainment of Zionist goals in Palestine, and greatly aid the Jews of Eastern Europe. Such an alliance might also resolve the conflicts within the Jew- ish community that so worried the old guard leaders, for most of the rest of German Jewry would be strongly attracted to Zionism if it were recognized by the govern- ment. Bodenheimer realized how decisive World War I could be for Zionism. Even as the first shots were fired he was finishing a memorandum for submission to the For- eign Ministry, in which Bodenheimer tried to demonstrate the “concurrence of Ger- man and Jewish interests in the World War.”‘ 5 This time the government was inter- ested. On 11 August 1914, a week after submitting his memorandum, Bodenheimer received a telegram summoning him to a meeting in Berlin with Major Hutton-Czap- ski, a General Staff officer involved in efforts to encourage revolutionary, nation- alist movements among the many ethnic groups inhabiting the western provinces of Russia. 16 As elaborated in several memoranda submitted during the next two months, Bodenheimer proposed the establishment of a “buffer state” between Germany and Russia. He premised his plans on the end of Russian rule over the western provinces of the Tsarist Empire, which encompassed the Jewish Pale of Settlement. Bodenheimer warned against the resurrection of a Polish national state which might encourage irredentist movements in German’s Posen territories, or in Austrian Galicia. Instead, Bodenheimer urged that a multinational state be created, which, in his words, “would not only weaken the Tsarist regime and screen the Central Powers from its permanent pressure, but also be in need of German and Austrian support.” Bodenheimer estimated that approximately six million Jews could be included in the buffer state. The other nationalities would counterbalance each other. The large numbers of the Jews, their broad distribution, control of trade, and high cultural level would make them the most important element in the buffer state’s population. Linguistic affinity for German and hatred of Russia, argued Bodenheimer, would dispose the Jews to cooperate with the Central Powers. The fears Jews harbored of the other national groups in the buffer state would also incline them to ally themselves with the Germans. The state would be constituted as a confederation of largely autonomous na- tionalities. Bodenheimer claimed that the smaller, weaker peoples would welcome this framework in which to develop their national cultures. The huge, underdeveloped buffer state would become an important new sphere of influence for Germany and Austria. Thus, Bodenheimer’s plan was designed to link the interests of the Jews, and most of the other groups in the buffer state, with those of Germany…
At the session of Zionist leaders, a special organization was formed, called the ‘Deutsches Comitee fur die Befreiung der russischen Juden/German Committee for the Liberation of Russian Jews (to conduct armed insurrection, sabotage, defeatist propaganda behind Russian lines)…”
The plan faltered because of the not unexpected opposition of the Poles.
Fast forward, and in different circumstances, the Projects for establishing a Jewish republic in the southern Ukraine or in the Crimea was relaunched in 1923 by the social leader A. Bragin who proposed that one be established on the Black Sea coast from Bessarabia to Abkhaz with its capital in Odessa, while Yuri *Larin supported, in opposition to the Birobidzhan plan, a Jewish autonomous area in the southern Crimean and Azov region centered in Kerch. As we know the Birobidzhan plan won the day. But because in Birobidzhan is cold, in 1944 the Jewish Anti-Fascist Committee (JAC) submitted a memorandum to the Soviet leadership containing a proposal to create a Jewish Soviet republic in the Crimea, expressing the hope that “the Jewish masses of all countries, in particular the United States would give substantial aid” to building up such a republic. Despite the rumors that some members of the Politburo of the Central Committee ( Lazar *Kaganovich and Vyacheslav Molotov) were favorably disposed toward the idea of the “Crimean Plan,” it was rejected in 1944. Stalin had to go. But some people can’t take NO as an answer and we had the Maidan! Putin snatched Crimea, therefore Putin has to go.
Well. There’s that magic number again:
Bodenheimer estimated that approximately six million Jews could be included in the buffer state.
But have you noticed the main ‘motivation’ that Bodenheimer invoked for “concurrence of German and Jewish interests in the World War”? ”HATRED OF RUSSIA, would dispose the Jews to cooperate with the Central Powers”. With anyone. Germany failed, here come the other colonials: Americans, Brits, French.
A proportional response. Assuming a Nato warship repeats the British stunt. What to do? Do unto others. What was done was nothing injurious, but rather insulting. Injury elicits anger. Insults are more on the order of hate. What would it take to knock one of those underwhelming turret guns right off the deck? Sends the right sort of message. And then the ball’s in the opponents court. What are they going to do, fire off a missile or two? I don’t think so. Insult. Like an offended gentleman taking a pair of morocco gloves out of his inner coat pocket and swiping the face of the offender. Nothing terribly injurious. But sends a certain message. No injuries. Not enough to start an Article 5 clamor, or even to derail the Western Europeans from their aims. But enough to spoil their Sea Breeze fun and games. Leading maneuvers sans the deck gun has a bad look about it.
I beg to disagree. Sea Breeze is basically a show parade being put on and of no real consequence whatsoever.
The Empire is in agonal stages of demise. Russia should ignore it and let nature take its merciful course.
Grow up everybody and stop hankering for war.
As I commented in a previous article regarding this topic, it’s a “nothing-burger,” and not worth the death of foolish men.
Westerners are just as vile as their leaders. Writes should stop trying to portray them as anything else
We are not vile. We voted for Hitlery Clinton because we wanted change, but Putin interfered with our election and voted for Trump. Therefore its not our fault, but their fault and Trump’s fault.
Russia will open fire if any Nato ship enters Russian territorial waters again but not with the aim of sinking it. They will probably use inert rounds. RF will only sink the errant ship if it returns fire, not only during Sea Breeze but at any time in the future. And not only in the Black Sea but in waters off Vladivostok or any part of RF territorial waters as well.
I happen to think that there are people in Nato military — to whom RF General Staff must surely be talking — who still possess sound minds and these people got the message with the HMS Defender episode and understand the bottomline established by RF on the use of fire in any encroachment of its territory.
As I said in comments on Pepe Escobar’s piece on the Black Sea, UKUS have to take into account the impact of the altercation on their ‘partners’ who are participating in Sea Breeze, people who sailed as far away as Pakistan, Japan and Brazil to the Black Sea or thereabouts. Not all of them are true believers in Nato’s messianic mission to bestow ‘freedom’ on the world. Sea Breeze is partly a PR exercise and it would be a major embarrassment for UKUS if some of the participating ships were to make an abrupt u-turn for home, unhappy to be dragged into an exercise where ships are shot at for real, and indirectly being parties to a hot conflict with RF. So people will be circumspect for now.
Apart from that RF seems to be relaxed about Sea Breeze. Sergei Lavrov is in Turkey to discuss a host of issues including the Black Sea — and perhaps gently reminding his host of the terms of the Montreaux Convention.
It’s said that the bombs were 250kg….I doubt very much that a modern gas turbine/diesel and built light for speed and profit, could sustain even a 50kg hit amidships. She’d be dead in the water sinking and bent.
The UK skipper presumably as professional knew that… He outta git a medal from her royalness herself at buckhouse, or git locked up.
I had a pal who was at the Falklands affair. The fellas were not in good shape – seasick as dogs – and terrified – and rather cynical about the affair. Later he was SAS… did things – and after that quit in moral disgust, as by then he’d killed a bunchaguys, and also grown up – and realized what the deal was. Then he became an electrician, honorable trade. Please don’t believe this story…. entirely fictitious, believe me. Believe me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLbSs9PMWO0 (Robert Green, RN (ret.) about, inter alia, the Falklands affair and how near “it” came…really near.
Thanks for the essay. Quite nearly matches my own view, by the way.
I would remark that, in the event of a crises that “fails”, often, the regime that caused the fail is replaced. In the instance that might indicate a military coup…and even the dubious Trumpster might find himself titular head, again. That would avoid WW#3, perhaps…
As a point of insignificance, I hope, the Belgrano never entered the “200 mile zone” – and was torpedoed and sunk outside the zone. The implication is that the skipper of Belgrano said (for whatever reasons) that he thought the UK attack on his ship was lawful as he was under orders to sink UK ships on sight.
Following that “logic”… The implication is that ships anywhere in the Black Sea (or elsewhere) are liable to sinking, anytime. It’s the Russian calculations as to “enemy” (target, fat or skinny) intentions that decide the fate of each ship under Russian “rifle sights”… It is not marine or land borders.
video from Donbass…(YT “Russel the Red” gives report> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLbSs9PMWO0 (note, there may be antipathy ‘tween Russ and some other people…but one ought to listen anyway, can’t hurt…)
they’re taking some fire…
This know nothing nobody fears that this is all just a charade, a pretend for show, that the alternates to empire are already in bed with the devil for a banking compromise. But the devil doesn’t do deals, so on it will go. Military industrial will still make a killing….
The RF will still bed with nato to divide Syria for Israel, will still sell Deutschland gas for their ovens. The Chinese will still make the yankee’s stuff.
None of them will care for the Palestinians because the jewish state
They will still pretend to make the US the fool but the propaganda will remain, & the rest including the earth will lose. Sorry to be always the pessimist
“but now they came up with a truly clumsy piece of nonsense about how a “super dooper secret” dossier on the British plans was somehow apparently found by a passer-by in a heap of trash behind a bus stop in Kent (you think I am joking, then see here).”
yes, with amusement I’ve taken notice of this crap too.
Just a few practical questions:
-PowerPoint presentations of this kind are usually kept on a flash drive. Handouts are rare.
-What are the odds that a MoD of this stature travels… by bus? ;-)
-How did this paperwork fly into a trash bin?
-Handed over to the BBC of course, the same corporation that was on board and spilled the beans.
I suspect the paperwork to be contaminated with Novichok, when the world tends to not believe it.
I’d like to offer a bunch of thoughts as a random Canadian. From a Canadian perspective – it is a relief (comfort) to see Russian live ammunition used against an overly-assertive British warship. Those who live in countries who haven’t had to respond to British power tend to underestimate the threat it poses. While the US handles power with clumsy, fumbling fingers, relying on its Manifest Destiny, the British do not.
Since the Suez Canal incident, there is even more focus on Arctic shipping routes. Which country in the Arctic Council could fire at a British warship without extreme consequences? Only Russia, I think. (I don’t see how the US will keep Alaska given current geopolitics – just my opinion.) What if the UK and Russia are chummy (which despite everything they seem to be)? Would Russia fire at them? If not, should the British be permitted to use these Arctic shipping routes… or should the Arctic Council (and friends) try to, creatively, prevent that? But if there is undeniable open military tension between the two nations, what argument could the Arctic Council use to deny/limit British access to Arctic waters? None, I don’t think. And the Russians have to accept responsibility for watching the British — empire or not, they are a concern.
My guess is that Canadian helicopter malfunctioned and crashed into the Mediterranean Sea because the Canadians were delivering some kind of offer to the locals from Her Majesty The Queen… perhaps with a special Canadian touch on it. Which may not have had royal approval. The response to that incident shows a strong desire to avoid a continental war in Europe, by the way. That should be noted.
The Arctic Council has no military remit.
“The Arctic Council’s mandate, as articulated in the Ottawa Declaration, explicitly excludes military security.”
Good point. It’s a convenient or quick way to name those countries whose sovereignty could be at risk by a close relationship between Russia and the UK, especially as the Arctic becomes more heavily trafficked. For the sake of defending ourselves (historically from the British monarch), we tend to band together, with Canada providing a presence on the American continent.
NatSouth, I’m reading through the Reykjavik Declaration from May 2021. On page 9 of 11, in the “Stronger Arctic Council” section, it reads “Endorse the Arctic Council—Arctic Coast Guard Forum Statement of Cooperation for enhancing and promoting safe, sustainable, and responsible maritime activities in the Arctic, and look forward to enhanced cooperation with the Arctic Coast Guard Forum.”
Enhancements to enhance the enhancing. I wonder if there are those in the global community who don’t agree with this? Now (yesterday?) the chairmanship passes from Iceland to Russia for the next two years.
Yes, coastguard.. Search and Rescue, fisheries, pollution management and control all have been part of the activities for a while. Which you can get Joint exercises between coastguards in the region, récent example is between Russia and Norway in the Barents.
In short, a different scenario.
Saker, and all readers: nobody can understand what is happening in this world if they do not factor in the satanic/demonic power infesting dc & London etc. This, by definition, includes doing what is insane/dangerous/suicidal/inexplicable, very unwise. So, true to form, the actions of bojo & biden follow this path, & are all part of the satanic NWO. Trying to reason with these powers just won’t work because it can’t. This is, in effect, spiritual warfare coming to the fore in the physical world. Their MO is to cause as much death (high value targets don’t count: i.e. quality doesn’t matter only quantity) and destruction etc as possible, only – for now – restrained by God.
Your comment is undobtedly correct.
I am afraid that not everybody gets it.
S75ponny, you are right, but since everybody is at different levels of understanding and knowledge etc, I think many would have thought exactly what is going on, and the spiritual aspect is the missing link, or the main piece in a ‘jigsaw puzzle’.
This is also for related events to come, including the mark of the beast, that people are forewarned, but most importantly, that what was spoken of in the New Testament coming up to 2000 years ago – how did Jesus know unless He had the power to know?
Correct, I think that level of understanding and knowledge plays important role but God ‘s way acceptance and openess magnified with art of listenning is also very crutial.
Who wants to hear will hear, who wants to see will see.
Yes the spiritual aspect is that missing piece of puzzle which both upsets and pacify. Never the less it is only hope giving proposition these difficult times to those whom I consider priviliged.
Have you noticed present fragility of human kind and its deviation from what man used to be just few generation back? Is it because we rejected moral compass and we can not even adequatly perceive such grave event that Saker is talking in above excellent article?
The new liberal capitalist Russia does not have the same military and diplomatic power as the Soviet Union but above all it has an influential pro-Atlantic and pro-Western component within the new Russian power system. In fact, the new Russia did nothing to prevent the US / NATO conquest of Ukraine and all other Soviet Republics. What is happening now is only the consequence of this strategic choice. No use crying now. Now is too late, 30 years late…
As always a clear and well thought out analysis but I would offer a slightly different perspective on the latest provocation and sabre rattling.
I think this event is simply the latest move in a relentless campaign of harassment aimed at chipping away at Russia’s resistance through a low-level war of attrition. Regardless of the military power balance, Russia has no influence on the financial empire that drives the worlds economy and set the global narrative. It is in these two spheres that the West is truly dominant, and uses its power to great effect through dictating national government policy to the rest of the world. And it is in these two spheres that I presume the Empires policy makers aim to break Russia. The tactic being to provoke Russia into snapping and use the event to call for sanctions at a UN level, strangle it’s ability to interact on the world stage, and promote insurrection from within the country (i.e. same script as before).
Russia for it’s part seem to be holding up quite well by not engaging the Empire directly, and may ultimately prevail if they can hold out long enough to allow the Empire to dissolve under it’s own debt burden and delinquency.
Here are photos of the opening ceremony of this navy exercise: it’s inside a hotel..is this normal for an outdoor navy exercise?
I’m confused about number of ships versus number of countries.
Auslander pointed this out under Pepe’s article:
18 ships will be provided by UK, US, Ukraine. Assuming littoral states Romania, Georgia, Bulgaria, Turkey supply 2 each, that leaves only 4 ships to-be fielded by 23 nations..?
So does this mean there is personnel on land? or will ships have mixed crews? Ie Several sailors from each country… Or does just providing equipment count as “participation”..?
This whole “exercise seabreeze” with “more than 30 countries” seems to be just spin…
Please see Pepe’s article comments by Auslander and Tom Welsh re number of ships and Montreux convention.
Speech by US ambassador to Ukraine at the Bristol Hotel Odessa Opening ceremony
-there are 13 nations participating
-this whole thing is costing them US$ 600 M
Er? Yeah, most of Sea Breeze is the usual US NATO spin. But there are a handful of units that are a cause for concern.
Some navies will send ships:
UK, USA, Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine
Others will just send aircraft / equipment /personnel as observers which is part of the participation tally.
Thanks for your reply NatSouth, and for all your insights!
I thought “participating” meant one of your ships was in the water, like in a regatta…not all of us are military people here.
Not only ships, but marines, special ops, diving detachments and also various naval attachés observing the exercise which counts as attending. Bit of a wheeze really to make the numbers look good.
Well if the US ambassador’s opening speech has the most up to date numbers then they still only managed to get 13 and not the original 30+ countries to participate..
“Fear, especially existential fear, might well be the only thing which could break through the wall of silence and disinformation which the western media has been feeding the people for decades.”
Is it not better to let western hogwashers to spew out every nonsense they can, waste more time and money till they become so ridiculously irrelevant, that neither their own dogs will take them for serious, while Russia has ample time to build better defense, develop better armaments, bring in more cheap energy, etc? I am sure, that no one should underestimate European people, that great amount of Europeans know very well whats at stake here and that they will ask their Presidents to send their sons to die in the first wave, before sending their own best to the grinder. But there are always idiots willing to die for someone else, for a scrap of dirt, cheap money or whatever other nonsense the western media spews out…
“Does Russia have any other choice?”
I think time is on Russia’s side. Maybe Russia could opt for a “containment” or “separation” policy, and hope a truly stupid provocation doesn’t occur.
The British conquered 1/4 of the world.
And now they are nothing but cucks following orders from their master Uncle Sam so what’s your point?
The Roman Empire began deteriorating from c.235 before its final collapse in c.476, saying it can take several hundred years before an Empire is neutralised.
I think this is what both UK and US are trying to do, prolong the pain, gluing to their positions and colonial property in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, Europe, etc.
Only Vietcong found the trick. I remember a Vietnamese mother said: “The Americans were merciless. The only thing we could do was taking a kitchen knife and move their arses m2 per m2, person by person, back to Saigon, until they ran to the Apache helicopter on the roof in sandals and Bermuda shorts with a plastic bag of porn movies and local artefacts”.
Can someone tell me what 3B+PU stands for? Thanks much!
3 baltics + poland and ukraine … mod
It could also be about creating a crisis that would force Germany (and Austria) to ditch Nordstream 2.
“It could also be about creating a crisis that would force Germany (and Austria) to ditch Nordstream 2.”
Quite possible indeed, I think I mentioned this in some of my ramblings about the current feather ruffling.
Maybe “Biden” has to appease the swamp after committing the sin of meeting with Putin without yelling at him. “Biden’s” diplomatic approach seems to be to combine some quiet diplomatic statements/action with noisy saber rattling or other forms of punishment/intimidation. I don’t know if the “intimidation” is meant to quiet the hawks, is actually meant to be intimidation, or perhaps is meant to demonstrate U.S. “leadership” to the world, or is some combination of the above.
I think that the chain of events was like this: On June 22 Putin’s artickle “Being open despite the past” was published in Der Spiegel. Putin there offered again to create an economic space from Lisabon to Vladivostok. – Germany and France are calling for EU to invite Russia for a summit to talk to it directly. A few hours before European summit where this request of Merkel and Macron will be discussed the British defender with yournalists on board provoked Russia at Krymea. At the European summit Baltics and other British poodles argumented that Russia is agresive as it just proved by attacking the British ship and there is no need to rewad it by talking to it. Their opinion prevailed.
Such animosity and so unnecessary.
If the British would have been aware of the mines in this part of the Black Sea, they would have been thankful for being warned, first by the coast-guard, later by the airforce drawing their attention.
Let’s hope the US captains are more careful. There are a lot of Soviet-era sea-mines that were never cleaned up and nobody has taken responsibility for.
Anyway, an accident is always around the corner in unchartered territories.
You may recall the 1946 Corfu Strait incident when two British destroyers sailing between Greek Corfu and the Albanian coast were mined with considerable damage and lives lost. Ordnance left over from the War some said but the British sued i court and the case dragged on for years. That was a FoN caper as well. you would have thought they would have learned…..
It wouldn’t be the first time an unfortunate accident has occurred. In 1946 two British destroyers cruising in the Corfu strait on a FoN exercise were mined with great damage and loss of lives. Ordnance from the war they said, The Greeks shrugged their shoulders so the British blamed the Albanians and took them to court. Case dragged on for years……search out The Corfu Incident…..history may rhyme….and we know the Russians have a great sense of humour as well as historical perspective….
The Corfu Incident certainly has some bearing on the law of the sea today, I did think of mentioning it in my article, so it is good that you mentioned it here.
Dutch complaining about recieving attention the day after Defender in ident….ship on its way to Kerch straight. Clearly provocative intentions? To me yes. Video.
@EVERYBODY: Russian Su-34 and Su-30 have just intercepted a Dutch Frigate sailing towards the Kerch strait. See the footage yourself here:
We can probably expect a lot more similar events in the next couple of weeks.
The pictures at RT seem to have been taken aboard the Dutch ship, and one frame shows a manned gun. This of course telegraphs intent…which is all it took at Falklands. “WATCH: Dutch navy ship intercepted by jets after turn towards Russian waters, Moscow says – Amsterdam blasts ‘dangerous’ flyover ” (RT)
I recall the Slavic fellas I’ve known. Man, when they point at the door and look at you, it’s past time to leave. After that…it can get interesting. Best friends in the world, but being their friend is big commitment. Never cross them. In this case, the nazis keep this krap up, they’re going to get somebody hurt, maybe even in Hawaii, or East of there. They can drink more than can, too. And they’re terrifically smart, imho. They actually study. (hope that’s not too non-pc)
Indeed, it will intensify and so will the howls of “international law” by the West. Crocodile tears to soothe Ukraine’s ruffled feathers and keep Russian as an aggressor in public perception- so watching what happens at the UN, (UNSC) and NS2. More sanctions…
It says this incident took place on June 24th, a day after the British ship incident….can this be correct?
It says they only reported it now, because the Dutch brought it up now. So many how many other incidents have taken place that haven’t been reported?
The frigate Evertsen was on course to violate the Russian border in the Black Sea, but was prevented from doing so by Russian jets flying at a safe distance from the vessel, Moscow claimed, in response to Amsterdam’s complaints.
One provocation every 4 days! What’s next?