Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov has declared today that a Biden-Putin summit was being worked on and that it could take place before the end of the year. If this true, then this is, by definition, very good news.
What this news item also seems to suggest is that there is some very serious infighting taking place amongst the different clans/groups which rule over the US, NATO and the EU. The recent trip by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to Georgia, the Ukraine and Romania strongly suggest that there is a clan which wants to push the Ukronazis into a war against Russia (Lloyd himself is too dull and obtuse to personally matter, but he is clearly the voice of the “war party” the same way other blacks, such as Powell or the two Rices, were used in the past). Ditto for the language coming out of the UK and the 3B+PU. This is especially true in the Ukraine where the topic of the imminent “liberation” of the Donbass from the accursed Moskals is featured on a daily basis (they are even working on laws they intend to impose upon the Donbass following their glorious victory).
The Poles are also using the (entirely man made) crisis at the border to wave their flags and predict that Poland would defeat Belarus in 3 days. It is a fact that Poland has a much bigger military than Belarus as it is a much bigger and much more populated country which got billions in subsidies from the EU but, as I wrote recently, the Poles have never been good soldiers, unlike the Belarussians which are truly formidable fighters and comparing these forces would be like comparing a pack perfumed and fluffy show-dog with a single lone wolf. Numbers here matter a lot less than the quality, training, and determination of the soldiers on both sides. Besides, the moment a single Pole crosses the Belarusian border, Russia will immediately intervene and give Belarus her full support by bringing the reality of war to downtown Warsaw. At which point the Poles will run to NATO for protection, but won’t get it (just as Erdogan didn’t when Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 over Syria). For the Anglos, Poles are just another wannabe European cannon fodder, not real or even important “allies”: sure, there will be a huge barrage of protests and threats, but no Anglo will volunteer to go fight and die for Poland or the Ukraine.
As for the (legally obligatory, since they were approved by a UNSC Resolution) Minsk Agreements are all but officially dead, the Ukies have rejected them many times and we now know, thanks to Lavrov’s publication of this correspondence with Germany and France, that the Europeans have given the Ukies their full support, in fact they even rejected the notion that Kiev is legally obligted to negotiated directly with the LDNR. Yes, the western parties to the Minsk Agreements are supporting Kiev’s stance to not to even *talk* to the Donbass.
Such is the true face of European hypocrisy.
Finally, there are troop movements reported everywhere, both in the West and in Russia. Russia also just made a double show of force by shooting down an old Russian satellite and by firing her newest hypersonic missile from a Russian Navy ship.
Yet Biden, and maybe even “Biden”, seem to be willing to talk to the Russians. For one thing, nobody would bother sending Victoria Nuland or William Burns to Moscow just to deliver some silly ultimatum. And if they had, then what would be the point of a Putin-Biden meeting anyway? No, these two visits clearly involved some very serious negotiations.
So, there are clearly forces in at least the USA which do not want to take the immense risks associated with a full-scale war with Russia.
What is especially striking is that the Russians have made it pretty clear that they are not interested in further discussions with the Ukies or, for that matter, for anybody in Europe.
They have even explained that stance by saying that neither Kiev nor anybody in the EU have any agency and that talking to them is a waste of time. Then came the amazing statement by Stoltenberg who declared that NATO should consider the option of deploying nuclear weapons east of Germany, at which point the Kremlin officially called the European “liars” and indicated that Russia would never accept such a state of affairs.
Putin himself was uncharacteristically blunt when he said that the EU/NATO are not paying any attention to Russian warnings. But then he added that now these warnings have had some effect, probably referring not to a change of attitude by the EU/NATO, but to a behind the scenes dialog between the USA and Russia.
Since a Presidential summit is only organized once both sides have already come to a general agreement, at least in principle, on at least some issues, if Putin and Biden do meet, that means that both sides have worked out at least the outlines of some kind important deal (not just empty statements, as was the case the first time around, at least officially).
In his recent speech Putin said “it is imperative to push for serious long-term guarantees that ensure Russia’s security in this area, because Russia cannot constantly be thinking about what could happen there tomorrow“. If Biden is willing to not only give guarantees (the Russians, understandably, have *zero* trust in western promises, written or oral) but also to actually take actions, probably mutual, coordinated and verifiable actions by both sides, then a war in Europe could be avoided, rather easily in fact.
Will Biden undo the total mess created by Obama and Trump and their Neocon handlers?
For one thing, such a major political success would certainly help Biden with this (currently atrocious) approval ratings in the USA. True, if both the US and Russia stand down in a verifiable way, that would give the US much more flexibility in dealing with China. But it is important to stress here that while Russia is under absolutely no obligation to help China, the Russians will never allow the US to defeat/subdue China, not only because the two countries are de facto allies (and even symbionts!), but also because both Putin and Xi know that they need to stand shoulder to shoulder not to win a war against the USA, but to avoid one, which is much more desirable and important than any “victory” however defined.
Besides, defusing the tensions in Europe will also give Russia more flexibility to develop her forces and means in the Russian Far East.
Speaking of which, check out this very recent videos of Chinese strategic bombers flying under the protection of Russian Su-35s:
These kind of joint patrols are now happening on a regular, almost daily, basis.
So if a deal about Europe is made between the US and Russia, both sides stand to gain a lot, and China won’t lose anything at all. In fact, I am absolutely sure that all the Russian moves towards the US are carefully coordinated with China, and vice-versa, of course.
Furthermore, though Kremlin officials did not clarify this issue, but several well connected military analysts which are close to the Kremlin (Igor Korotchenko for example) have indicated that the Russian statements about “we will not only destroy any weapon or force attacking us, but we will strike at the command centers which gave the attack order” refers not to Warsaw or Kiev, but to Brussels and even Washington DC. Of course, this has not been confirmed, but neither was this version ever denied. At the very least, for the folks now in Washington and Brussels, this is all becoming very personal very quickly. Good.
We need to keep this in mind every time we hear about NATO forces conducting exercises near the Russian border: Russia has no need to send ship or aircraft anywhere near the US border to “reach” any location in the United States, including location deep inland. So while the BBC or CNN don’t get to show what the Russians are doing (or capable of doing), you can be pretty sure that the folks at the Pentagon know the real score (see this article by Andrei Martyanov for details).
I would say that all the western sabre-rattling is political in purpose and nature, it “sends messages” as Anglo politicians love to say, while Russian sabre-rattling is purely military and primarily designed to impress the western military specialists and commanders.
Right now, since no weapons were fired in anger (yet!) both sides can step back from the precipice without losing face. Once the shooting starts, this will become much much harder. So now is the time to act quickly and very decisively for all those who do not want war.
I have absolutely no idea if Biden himself is this (comparative) voice of reason in the White House or who in the collective “Biden” is behind this (maybe General Milley?), but if I am correct and such a voice of reason exists, then I sincerely wish them full success, as this is really the last, very last, chance for the adults in the room to tell the infantiles in the EU/NATO to stop talking nonsense and playing with (nuclear) fire.
The bad news is this: from the Russian statements it appears that Putin and Biden should meet somewhere withing the next couple of weeks (I doubt that they will arrange such a meeting between the western Christmas and the New Year). That, in turns, means that the crazies in London, Warsaw and Kiev have only a few weeks to trigger a war, after that they might be told to cease and desist by the White House. In fact, one of the “craziest of all crazies” (a high distinction in the current Banderastan!) in Kiev, Alexey Arestovich, has declared that Russia will invade the Ukraine on the 24th of December while the West will be celebrating Christmas.
Considering how many times over the past 7 years the Ukies have been promising an “imminent” Russian attack, they must be getting really frustrated and since they have no political future without such a war, I would not put anything past these hate-filled and absolutely insane people, even the dumbest and craziest of all imaginable shit.
So Russia better remain on full combat alert until she gets verifiable signs of real de-escalation.
So the next couple of weeks will be absolutely crucial: they will decide of the outcome of the current struggle between the war party and the (relative) peace party in the USA which, in turn, will decide whether the NATO/EU crazies will be let loose or ordered to stand down by the only party in the West which still matters: the USA.
Ww1 and ww2 there were also treaties and negotiatons between nations. And after that, came the backstabbing.
I dont say the same thing applies here. But if you plot a line that gives the % chance of conflict over a period of the last 10 years. The line only goes up, never down.
I am afraid that someday we are out of luck!
Well, we sure are in very bad shape, this is WAAAY worse than the Cuban missile crisis (if only because then everybody knew the world was in danger, today nobody does).
But that is precisely why Russia has to do two things:
1) avoid a war at all costs and, failing that
2) delay a war as much as possible
But yes, I am very pessimistic too…
You have to bear in mind that Biden was placed in the White House by the neocons after the greatest election steal in US history. He is nothing more than a puppet who does as told. How many times did the West invade Russia and how long has it been planning to break up and plunder the country ? At least since the Napoleonic invasion of 1812, financed by the Rothschild’s.
As the late political economist Lyndon LaRouche stated before his death, the only thing that will save the US dollar is the breakup of Russia and the plunder of Siberia and the Caspian region. The Anglo-Americans
giving up on Russia and permitting it to exist in it’s present political and geographic shape ? Never. They cannot forget Halford Mackinder and his warnings on the importance of Euro-Asia.
A few days ago two American congressmen proposed a resolution by which a potential win by Putin in the 2024 elections would be rejected. Washington DC is obviously still planning on placing a Guaido type puppet in Russia, who would open the door to wide scale plundering by Western banks and corporations. However, things are not going too well in that respect, as neither Navalny nor Sobchak have any real support in Russia.
If Putin or Biden do meet, the most that can be expected will be symbolic gestures, with Washington DC playing for time, which it does not have in any great amounts. What Washington DC signs Washington DC will cancel or ignore, as it has done so many times in it’s history.
A peace party in the US ? It might exist, with some sane people exerting influence. However, the war party is backed by Wall Street and the Military Industrial Complex. What is dangerous here is what remains of US industry that was not shipped abroad is the fact that it’s tied to the Military Industrial Complex. For the whole thing to work, war and a large military are needed. Worse, the dollar is printed backed by nothing, while the huge foreign and domestic debt can never be repaid. As analysts are saying, you cannot kick the can down the road permanently.
Yes, I too am a pessimist. What happens on the international scene will be the result of what happens on the US domestic scene.
As the late political economist Lyndon LaRouche stated before his death, the only thing that will save the US dollar is the breakup of Russia and the plunder of Siberia and the Caspian region.
There mere fact that he mentioned that as a possibility is sufficient to tell me that there is no point is taking anything he wrote/said seriously.
Lyndon LaRouche was only reiterating what the neocons in the US were hoping for, namely the breakup and plunder of Russia. He never supported it.
I never took Larouche seriously, sorry
“A few days ago two American congressmen proposed a resolution by which a potential win by Putin in the 2024 elections would be rejected.”
You do realise, that the only opinion that matters about a win by Vladimir Vladimirovitch in 2024, is the opinion of those, who speak Russian as a native language, right?
There has to be a pesky Russian giving the congressional critters a hell they simply can’t stomach term after term. Enough terms go by and then congressional (mostly democrats and egg heads) tribes say no moore terms for Vlad or else.
Its like a political promise that cant be kept but is still used to gather votes at the booth as you reline your pockets w/money.
So what ?
USA can do whatever it can get its people to die for
Dear Friend, I share your pessimism. Ukraine (nation 404 – Martyanov courtesy) went too far and now has no alternative to war, with nothing to lose either. And for Russia the main problem is 404 becoming a NATO launching pad for all kind of shit just around the border… but then, if not 404, the 3B+P are always available for such job.
Maybe Russia could just reallocate the population from Donbass somewhere else and lock the border and forget about 404… this save the people there but does not solve the other issues.
Agree with Westerner, not to believe any press releases or treaties between Putin and Biden upcoming meeting. All sides are non-agreement capable when fighting for survival, just look at some historical pacts below. For the last 250 years the five eyes empire has always been capable of outsmarting all competition.
1. Napoleon and Alexander I of Russia signed a Tilsit peace and friendship treaty on 7 July, 1807, in the middle of the river Nemunas dividing the defeated Prussia from the russian controlled Lithuania. Only to find out that russians have switched to english side, thus forcing Napoleon to protect his rear before invading England.
2. Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact of 23 August 1939, with it’s Secret Provisions, dividing eastern Europe among themselves.
Napoleon gave up on invading England in 1805, when the French and Spanish navies were defeated at Trafalgar. He had no means of crossing the Channel.
Western historians never did explain who financed Napoleons invasion of Russia in 1812. The Rothschild’s perhaps ? The official number of Napoleons troops who invaded Russia was either 450.000 or 500.000, depending on which source you quote. Unofficially it was 860.000. These were huge numbers for 1812. And where did Napoleon find the money for all of this ?
As we all know, he was defeated in Russia, with a mere 1.000 men returning from the invasion. Since he was defeated, the bankers permitted German unification, using Germany for two world wars, the chief target being Russia. The wars failed. In between we had the Russian revolution, financed by western bankers. Lenin is placed in power, but dies in 1924 from syphilis. He is replaced by Stalin, who crushes Western stooges controlled by the bankers. In 1948 we got NATO, which took over from Germany in anti-Russian ventures. It still exists.
Which part of “verifiable” sounds ambiguous to you?
I think that BF’s comments generally contains interesting points, the kind of comments that makes good discussions.
I don’t know why Saker is putting him/her down without real explanations, but I guess it must be something between them in the past. I think it would be sad if we lost BF because of that, but I hope that BF i resilient.
Thank you for your kind words. By the way, I am a ‘he’. Greetings.
“Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact of 23 August 1939, with it’s Secret Provisions, dividing eastern Europe among themselves.”
Secret, but you know about it?
Given it is secret I guess make no sense to request for evidence right?
Ukrainian forces are currently attacking Gorlovka and the surrounding settlements with heavy weapons. Javelin is also used. The news is from Twitter so a double/triple check is needed. NATO provides full logistical and intelligence support so that maximum support and raw numbers do not go in favor of those defending themselves. The harsh reality does not care for those who are right or for those who are not. Resources, mechanics and speed of attack execution easily ensure victory. The whole Anglo world is against Russia. What is the Kremlin really hoping for by talking to anyone? They have an army and the danger on the western borders needs to be physically eliminated. I’m a little pessimistic about the good news. I think there will be a conflict that will be very “messy” and brutal.
it’s wrong to suggest the whole Anglo world is anti Russian.
The Russian people and government have many admirers in the west
Unfortunately our rulers are full of shit,but the people know this.
it’s wrong to suggest the whole Anglo world is anti Russian.
All depends on your “resolution”. As countries, yes, they all are. As government too. But not all people, true. That said, I don’t see many protests in Anglo countries, did you ever wonder why?
hi Saker, I tell you why…
the MSM is just spreading bullshit, or speaking fulltime about covid… etc. It is a very well oiled propaganda machine.
The standard citizen have no concerns about what is happening, or don’t understand what is happening (because they do not have the information nor the means to get it) also being misguided to think about other Problems such as Bullshit-Politics, Climate Change, LTGB…etc.
It takes Time, Effort and some Education to just dig by yourself the Real Information. The standard Citizen had been mentally and intellectually neutered. They have become good old obedient sheeps.
In the last years I had (tried to have, at least) many discussions with my colleages, family, friends, about what is really happening. It ends allways bad, because they are ideologically possesed (as Professor Dr Jordan peterson defines) or mentally castrated. The behave like the Three Monkeys (no see, no hear, no say) there is THE TRUTH (their official narrativ… how can our politicians, the newspapers or TV be wrong? God forbid) and anything else … doesn’t exist.
If I look around, I doubt there is 1 person in a thousand that it is not a Sheep. And they better behave and keep their thoughs for themselves, because if not that can cause them quite a lot of problems (in my case it did)
I am quite pessimistic, I hoped for long time that people will rebel, but… the sheeps are being feed, and will quietly be herded to the slautherhouse sometime in the future.
Excellent comment. I couldn’t say it better. I lived almost ten years in Russia, from 2008 to 2018. It took me two or three years to “disinfect” my brain of all the ideological and propagandist shit I had in my head without knowing it, and to realize that I had been lied to for so long. I compare this awakening to unplugging from the matrix.
It is too easy to blame people for lacking critical thinking. They are brainwashed. Would you blame someone for having been drugged ?
Being a person with a higher education and reading newspapers doesn’t help because newspapers, especially in foreign policy, all follow the same ideological line. The dominant thought exerts such a powerful influence that it can be compared to collective hypnosis.
Video of protest in London against repression of migrants last Saturday by Stop the War Coalition outside Polish embassy:
Here is a protest in Australia. Also take note of all the Aussies who greet the man filming them.
The mainstream media wont cover this but those who observe alternative media about Australia will know.
Aussie Cossack is acknowledged constantly by the crowd walking past him in protests in Sydney.
I realized the mistake late, the whole of anglo politic world had to be written.
Considering the amount of anti-Russian comments on Facebook and Youtube and that a considerable amount of those profiles are real ones, I believe that the majority of people in the collective West are on the anti-Russian bandwagon.
No matter if there are sensible people, but they don’t have any agency, and the NATO has the support of the majority of people
watch this clip and then comment again. you and everyone else on this website are blinded by your propaganda with each other. you are missing what is happening outide your little group.
easily ensure victory
Oh I love it when civilians speak of “easy victory”.
There is a Russian (military) saying “civilian is a diagnosis” :-)
this might be helpful: http://thesaker.is/debunking-popular-cliches-about-modern-warfare/
“Oh I love it when civilians speak of “easy victory”.”
Oh, I didn’t know this was a strictly military blog? Since I served two armies, I was a reserve naval officer of the former JNA. And of course that unfortunate war I was in. But what do I know? I remember “Oluja” and “Bljesak”, military-police actions that were well planned and carried out very quickly and successfully. The Serb forces defended themselves well where they could. They have nothing to be ashamed of. These are two examples I have experienced. And history is full of successful “blitz” offensives. The second issue is to keep the conquered, that is the hardest part of any military action.
There’s no possible “deal” or agreement that will calm the Nazis in Kiev, they must be dealt with once and for all.
If the U$ can’t even make Kiev abide by the Minsk Agreements then any Biden-Putin summit would just be going in circles.
Retake all of Novorossiya and be done with it.
Retake all of Novorossiya and be done with it.
Yes, typical western military thinking, that reminds of of Dubya saying “mission accomplished”…
Don’t you understand that “retaking Novorussia” will just be the TRIGGER for a long, protracted war???
Yes, that is a war Russia can win, but that is NOT what Putin wants, nor do most Russians.
All these “quickfix” solution by war come from those who don’t understand two key things:
1) how unpredictable wars are (“no plan resists the first contact with the enemy”)
2) how horrible wars are
If there is even a TINY option other than war, Russia ought to exercise it, at least in my opinion.
“Don’t you understand that “retaking Novorussia” will just be the TRIGGER for a long, protracted war???”
I’m not sure I understand how that would be. As I see it, if the Russian army routs the Ukie army in Novorossiya, then the Ukies are forced to fall back on a defensive line outside of that territory. From there, the war would dial down to the level of a permanent frozen conflict, just like Donbass is right now.
I say this because the population of Novorossiya is probably comprised 50% of people who are pro-Russian. Much of the rest of the population may not be pro-Russian, but they’re probably ambivalent about ethnic identity and political loyalty, and for that reason, would be unlikely to resist the pro-Russian administrators of this territory once Russia takes over. Thus, there wouldn’t be the military challenge of having to station much troops in Novorossiya as an army of occupation.
Unless I’m missing something, the only military threat would come from wherever the new front line is formed, which would be comprised largely of the Dniepr River. The Ukie military would be consigned to positions on the west side of the river, with Russian troops and their pro-Russian local militias entrenched on the eastern bank. To me, this is a situation that would be analogous to that of Egypt and Israel after the 1967 war, where the routed Egyptians took positions west of the Suez Canal, and the victorious Israelis occupied the west side.
Wouldn’t the situation I describe settle down into a permanent frozen conflict? How exactly do you imagine a long protracted war to play out here? Are you saying that the US and NATO would rebuild the Ukie army, so it could attempt future large scale offensives against the Russian and rebel lines? Or do you imagine the population of conquered Novorossiya would wage partisan warfare against the Russians and their pro-Russian militias?
Okay, let me explain differently: in the Luganks and Donetsk oblast there are enough pro-Kiev elements to assist SBU terrorist attacks. If Russia pushes the line of contact further to the west, this will just increase the number of people the SBU could use for its purposes. Add to this that the newly liberated parts of the Lugansk and Donestsk regions would not be taken over by Russia proper, but by the LDNR authorities. Now do I need to remind you of the number of LDNR commanders which have been murdered in SBU special operations without ANYBODY in the LDNR ever found to be an accomplice to their killings?
In other words, I have very LITTLE trust in the LDNR authorities.
Will the Russian FSB simply take over the Lugansk/Donestsk regions? I very much doubt it. And even if they could/would, they primary task is to protect Russia, not pacify the Ukraine.
In a fair world, the east Ukrainians would liberate themselves and take care of the security situation by themselves. Except they have already proven their incompetence (if not complicity).
As a Russian myself, I don’t want my fellow Russian to suffer and die to save ANY Ukrainians, pro-Russian or anti-Russian – I want them to sort their own issues between themselves and if after that, IF there are people in the Donbass worthy of Russian support, then by all means let’s help them. IF.
So far, I am rather unimpressed and, therefore, not enthusiastic about a Russian intervention at all.
YMMV of course.
If we learned anything about Putin the last 22 years is that he abhors any sudden or unpredictable move. Almost anything he does is low-key, which is fine if there is a long term organizational center, that implements associated plans. He is mostly a stabilizer for better or worse. Don’t expect much of big territorial gains except for strategic reincorporation like the case with Crimea. I mostly agree that forced incorporation of the whole of Ukraine under such systemic conditions like right now in Russia will be suicidal. The elites are not prepared and the public is a disorganized mess.
All the talk about territories being almost worthless, modern warfare etc. is more often than not intellectual masturbation. Russia has enormous benefits being an empire to this day (what else is Russia than a vast empire with subjects like: Bashkostan, Buryatia, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Tatarstan, Chechnya … claiming anything else is just hypocritical) even if it lost half its territory. It’s natural wealth is keeping the lights on in Russia and supplying it with much needed currency – even if it is not a necessary component in a non liberal economy.
It’s highly speculative what the true organizational center really is in Russia (atlantisist vs patriots guesstimate). What it’s plans are and if at all anything about all this speculation is hallucination. People like Rostislav Ishenko give a no nonsense and down to earth analysis, but this only a snapshot and a highly rough estimate. Any real analysis would at least require real world up-to-date economic, sociological and military data and research. As far as I know, not much of this exists in Russia. Andrei Fursov is one of a few who do this system analysis, which reminds of the fact that the CIA and Oxford “recently” started at least two academic programs in this vein: system historian and comparative analysis historian.
It’s quite simple, Saker, those Donbass Defenders are fighting so that the Russian military doesn’t have to. Furthermore, over 700 000 have now got Russian passports, so they are entitled to be protected by the Russian Federation as much as ANY Russian, especially since the citizenship offer came from Russia to the Donbass Republics’ people. And, of course, they were able to vote in the recent Russian election, so they have all the rights and priviledges like those in Moskva, for example.
Also easy to talk about their ‘incompetence’.
And you do know about how people on the other side of the Donbass republics are treated by the ukrainian military, police etc, so that any pro-kiev supporters have long since abandoned any liking for the sh!ts in kiev, who don’t care for them either.
Please do explain how the east Ukrainians could liberate themselves, and maybe I could pass that on to the people I personally know – and care for very much – in the DPR.
Andrei, you only need to have a look at some of these talk shows in Kuyev (ha-ha) to get a clear picture what is going on in that God forsaken Ukraine at this moment in time. They are ripping each other apart! The reality has eventually downed on quite a few of them and the result is eye-opening. These who have now “got it” – realised that in the past 7 years they were led by the nose by the so-called “West” with all their empty promises and now can clearly see what their country has become are absolutely furious with these who still believe that being with the West is Ukraine’s only hope. It goes like that: “OK! All that jumping up and down during your stupid Maidan and shouting DEATH TO MOSKALS – where EXACTLY that got you to?! You stupid idiots! We are sitting here with bare asses, that soon will be freezing, we are broke and we have sold ourselves for WHAT exactly!?”
As you can see some common sense is returning to that place, all VVP needs to do is to wait a bit longer until it reaches a critical mass and ukranians themselves will sort it out for him. What is also telling is that these talk shows hosts speak ukranian (as they have to), while most of their guests answer in Russian! (which supposed to be banned there). Awesome to watch! : )
Well at a minimum I hope they completely blast the Azov Battalion to smithereens.
What are the chances of a Russia inspired counter coup followed by a plebiscite and thus dividing Ukraine along the “ethnic” lines defines by the plebiscite…. a bit like the dividing of Schleswig after the 1st WW.
Where should the division be? There are no clear-cut borders.
Of course, one can say that there are roughly three regions, Novorossia in the East and South, Galicia (the part of Ukraine that had never been a part of the Russian empire and where the Russian language has not taken roots), and everything else (central Ukraine).
But already this third region that is in some respects more like Novorossia and in others more like Galicia shows that it is not so simple, and the borders are far from clear, anyway, these are rather clusters than clear borders.
I personally think that Ukraine should become a federal state with much autonomy for all regions. This would not only be important for Novorussian regions, but if Galicia could have its separate cultural policies, it would perhaps stop trying to impose its monolingual ideology on central Ukraine. Some people think that such a federal state would mean permanent deadlock, but without federalism it is much worse.
But all that does not matter that much in the current situation. Whatever the Ukrainian government might or might want to do, it is a hostage of armed ultranationalist forces both within and outside official structures.
Ukraine is very corrupt and oligarchs hold a lot of power. Perhaps, if oligarchs come to the conclusion that it is in their interest to support someone who is strong enough to go against the ultranationalists and normalize relations with Russia, it might have a chance.
People watch too much Hollywood movies… I don’t even dare to reply to comments about “go and just retake Novorussia, it is easy…”
“Retake all of Novorossiya and be done with it.”
Why only Novorossiya?
If you are setting out to annex Ukrainian territory, why are you leaving large parts of Ukraine out?
Why not ALL of Ukraine except the hardcore anti Russian Galician provinces?
If you only annex Novorossiya, there will still be huge chucks of Ukraine left that the West will organise to attack Russia. This defeats the entire purpose of annexation.
I have done the calculations, a rump Galicia state of the four western provinces will only have a population of 6 million. There is very little industry there. It is mostly undeveloped area. There is a large Hungarian minority in Galicia that Hungary will use to destablise it.
Such a rump Galicia state will be faced with Hungary in the West and Russia in the East. This state poses ZERO threat to Russia.
Hungary can back a Hungarian rebellion inside Galicia and easily crush Galicia. The idea of Galica “fighting” Russia is nothing but a ridiculous joke.
Whether Galicia joins EU or NATO is a meaningless issue.
Surprised at how weak Russia is in handling this issue.
The Hungarians that you speak of do not reside in Galicia, they are in Zakarpattia, which is most definitely NOT Galicia and whose people, the vast majority of whom are of the Rusyn ethnic group, are in fact, quite hostile to the Galicians. Zakarpattia, or Carpathian Rus, would either insist on remaining part of a Russia-aligned Ukraine, becoming part of Hungary, or becoming independant. They would reject being part of a new state with Galicia. More likely, the region to the north of Galicia, Volynhia, would join with Galicia. So the imaginary new state you speak of would likely consist of the 3 oblasts of Galicia (Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil) and the 2 oblasts of Volynhia (Volyn and Rivne). You are right about the fact that Russia has been weak in handling Ukraine. They could have made this happen in 2014. But Putin blinked.
“…and the 2 oblasts of Volynhia (Volyn and Rivne)…”
Russia must annex those two provinces. Those two provinces gives Russia a land border with Poland.
I think Poland is taking relations with Russia for granted.
A Russian army at its borders will help to sober Poland up.
The problem is, the Volynians are very similar to the Galicians in that they are very anti-Russian. Russia would be annexing a region full of millions of people who hate them – simply not viable. A better option would be Russia reuniting with Belarus, where the vast majority of people are pro-Russian. That would would give them a land border with Poland, and make the Polish elites, as you say, sober up – real quick.
Nothing’s going to come out of this, just like nothing came out of the Geneva Putin-Biden summit last year, and in fact, things got much worse after that. Same thing here. They won’t agree to Russia’s demands re NATO on their borders, and Russia won’t budge. So a complete waste of time talk fest like the others.
so why the Nuland/Burns trip?
why the preparations for the summit
you seriously think that all this is done just for a photo op???
Well, a few names come to mind when it comes to what one can expect from “agreements” or promises involving the blob & co: NATO expansion limit as promised to Gorby, the Minsk Protocol and the JCPOA– just to name a couple…
Whatever names can come to your mind, they are not worth a single drop of blood.
So if there is even a 0.000001% to avoid a bloodshed, I am all for it.
Hey, Mookie, are you willing to shed YOUR blood for the LDNR?
If not, then, how shall I put it, tone it down…
“so why the Nuland/Burns trip?”
If we assume there’s multiple factions in US with different agendas, there must be more than one envoy involved. In the age of digital surveillance, it’s is the only way to communicate securely. By close lookup of envoys we may decyphre whose interests they represent.
The western political class lives in Lala land, their world view is so warped and distorted, nothing they do is grounded in reality. This is the result of decades of propaganda, eventually, enough people who believe the fairy tales of invincibility, the idiotic talk of the indispensable nation, the shining city on the hill and all the rest of the nonsense, will fill key positions. It’s ultimately how all empires fail, under the weight of lies, big and small, tools to gain short term political gain which resulted in long term loss of, well, everything.
I have no trouble believing these morons sent these figures to hand over a list of demands, thinking that these oh so inferior Russians will have to fold any second now in light of such supreme might… no trouble at all. They are just that dumb, that delusional, that far up their own backsides.
If you want proof I suggest the absolutely ridiculous showing in Alaska during the meeting with the Chinese, it was a complete waste of time and nothing but a few amusing clips of delusional, selfaggrandising, utterly ridiculous threats leveled at the Chinese by Blinken came of it.
“photo op” – sure why not?
what would be the point of a Putin-Biden meeting anyway?
The uS cannot win with or without NATO any adventure against Russia in Ukraine or for that matter – Syria / Afghanistan / Iraq / Iran ….or Vietnam
uS can bargain the final approval of NS2 for something which Washington can tout as a major coup – but that approval is inevitable for German industry anyway
once NS2 is pumping and approved – Ukraine collapses and there is not enough money in Washington to keep it afloat – which is why the rhetoric is escalating by NATO et al
The technology, manpower, strategy, tactics and borders – are all in China / Russia / Iran – favor
EU is on its back with the populace never supporting a war with Russia nor the uS citizens either
they cant even get the pilots on board commercially or military to get the vax – war?
they are negotiating the division of Libya, for one thing.
the EU, US, Russia, and China have a huge vested interest in Libya’s oil and natural gas, which will possibly bypass Nordstream.
There will be a lot to discuss in an upcoming summit, it’s not all about war.
True, there is a lot of military hardware being moved around, mostly posturing, and defensive moves.
Also lot’s of hot air from the west. Believe it.
There is a phrase that immediately pops up with respect to any American diplomatic promise or political agreement: Non-Agreement Capable.
The reason to talk with the Americans is to delay any potential (open) war, as time is not on the USA’s side.
As a kind of delaying tactic, a summit might be useful in this narrow sense–rather than any agreements or promises made by the USA.
Lurking in the background and not admitted by many people is that the American Ponzi Scheme economy and Wall Street bubble are headed for massive implosion.
Delaying any war will allow this great implosion to occur naturally and thus put the USA in no position to wage any war of consequence, whether that be against Russia, China, Iran, etc.
Indeed, one reason why the USA is deliberately stoking conflict around the world is that it believes that a major war can serve as a distraction and political cover for a looming economic implosion that will happen sooner or later.
Well, I was the first one in the West to translate that concept into English and make it known (you can check that yourself).
However, it is PRECISELY because the USA is non-agreement capable that I mention VERIFIABLE steps THREE TIMES in my analysis.
I wonder – did you even read what I wrote???
Everything turns into a circus. What does the new hope of talking to Trotskyist Biden mean? It seems that the Russians do not want a war at any cost and just pretend, Actors like Americans.who their weakness explain with an (absolutely impossible) scenario of a general nuclear war. One day they declare someone a liar and decide not to work with them, then on day two they “take the words out of context” and return to the conversation. Tragicomedy. Are the interests of individuals more important than the Russian people? Or sovereign diplomacy buys time until they first free their finances held by Elvira and Alexei :))? Biden visited China, Putin India. Is the so much-lauded propaganda about friendship with China a fake? Or is it “noch immer” German Gorbachev question a problem? It seems like they need to agree on how they will wage war and what they will get after :)).
What does the new hope of talking to Trotskyist Biden mean?
it means to talk to the only western leader (individual or collective) which still has agency.
Calling Biden Trotskyst is total lunacy!
Have you ever read Trotsky???
Well, to be honest some parts, ideas in books that I have right here and did same with Mein Kampf. Nothing what can not be compared to angloamericn world today. Europeans are also not Hitler-minded, but Nazism comes out of every pore. As Niche self is confirmed on a daily basis, God does not exist “zwishen” progress Mamon people. Also, Americans are not Mussolini’s fascists even, but lot of their administration act like them. They learned from anglo-zio parents how to use both sides, left and right. London school of business. Two wings, same goal.
In any case, I read here in Sputnik that the Russians approved the sale of weapons to the Serbs. That’s good news. I always criticize them, so here I express my gratitude to the Russian leadership. It was about time. More training to be done and that’s it.
Djole said: “That’s good news. I always criticize them, so here I express my gratitude to the Russian leadership. It was about time.”
It is the current quisling in Belgrade that was dragging their feet when it came to re-arming. The Russians had to literally shove free fighters and tanks down Vucic’s throat. He then reportedly ordered the second rate Chinese S-300 knockoff instead of asking the Russians for the real deal. Vucic recently even back-stabbed the Russians, Chinese and Serbs in Bosnia with his recognition of Her Schmidt as the High Representative (read: Obersturmführer von Bosnia). The guy is a vermin.
Sorry Marko, Vucic is going to Russia before the elections…. again. Russian Ambassador Bocan Kharcenko is with him in every third picture. So it is not true that Vucic is not accountable to Putin’s administration. Same as for Westerners. Counselor Lonodn/Vienna aka Blair/Kurz, but also what the Chinese or Germans are looking for. He favors everyone, even a large part of the “world citizen-progressive Serbs”. It’s not a topic, but please don’t wash biographies where you can’t wash them. Regards
There’s an excellent book about the Russian military’s experience in Syria that freely available online. It’s produced by analysts working for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. According to these analysts, the Russian military has used the Syrian battlegrounds as an opportunity to provide experience to an unusually large number of military personnel.
According to the book, the Russians regularly rotate into Syria the staffs of entire divisions, regiments, brigades, and battalions. If I’m not mistaken, these Russian command teams are embedded in Syrian army units for the experience, then rotated out. As of 2017, 48,000 Russian troops obtained combat experience this way.
The book states that as of 2019, a total of 68,000 Russian military personnel had obtained experience in Syria. Again, this is because they are rotated into and then out of the combat zone. Every time one batch of Russian troops gets experience, it is promptly replaced by a fresh batch of soldiers.
As of 2019, 90% of all Russian Air Force aviation crews had been in Syria at least once. By that same year, 56% of all Russian air defense personnel had been in Syria at least once. The analyst who provided this data said that such experience for the Russian air force is “unprecedented.”
Also, by 2019, Russian fighter pilots had completed over 45,000 sorties in Syria. Some Russian pilots are known to have completed more than 200 combat missions each.
Personally, I find this information to be fascinating. It suggests that Putin and his generals have spent the past years doing ensuring that the efficiency of Russian military personnel is raised to higher and higher levels.
My guess is that if it comes down to full-scale war with Ukraine, the Russian army that’s presently concentrated near Ukraine’s borders may prove to be an exceptionally well-organized and combat efficient force. I cannot possibly believe that the NATO trained Ukie army is as well prepared as its Russian counterpart, based on what I read in this book.
The name of the book is “Russia’s War in Syria,” just in case anyone wants to check out. One of the military analysts is Lester Grau, the excellent and (in my opinion) highly reliable analyst of the Russian military and historian of Russia’s wars dating back to Afghanistan.
Needless to say, I have very high hopes that, in the event of war, the Russian army can do a quick, decisive, clean job of defeating the Ukie military machine. After that, the pacification of Ukraine will be secured.
Don’t know why but one’s sense is that the Ukranian army, psychologically, cannot face the Russian army and that any war between them would be over in about a week. Might be like a younger and older brother simile, where the one that’s younger or smaller does not expect to beat his older and stronger sibling, with fights ending almost as soon as they begin. If the Ukranian army disagrees a lot with their civilian leaders/commanders, a military coup is conceivable (even with the argument of “insanity”).
There are a lot of articles on the Internet claiming that the current Ukie army is vastly superior to its 2014 counterpart, and that it can force the Russian army to settle for limited gains obtained at high casualties. In other words, according to this perspective, the Russians would win only a pyrrhic victory, or even get stalemated.
But the problem is that ALL of these articles are produced by questionable sources. They are published by US corporate media outlets, US political establishment newspapers, or think tanks that are known for writing neocon and pro-NATO propaganda. Needless to say, in the case of the media outlets that I mentioned, all of them are news sources whose editorial line and reporting tends to echo US State Department and Brussels political rhetoric. Therefore, anything written by these sources is of questionable integrity.
So, to me at least, the reports of a new, upgraded, formidable Ukie army are suspicious. I don’t know what to think.
In my estimation, Ukraine is no more capable today than it was in 2014 of creating an efficient, motivated, viable national army. That’s because too many of Ukraine’s citizens are ambivalent about national identity and political loyalty. Conscripts drawn from such populations never make good soldiers. When the fighting starts, they often desert, or refuse orders to advance under fire, or surrender to the enemy. That’s what happened to Ukraine’s national army in 2014; it was dysfunctional. I simply don’t think there’s any reason to believe that today’s Ukie troops are of a different mindset than they were in 2014.
As for the reports that the NATO and US training camps in Galicia are producing crack, super-efficient and motivated troops, I have a theory about that. I suspect that those Ukies who are solid military material today are likely drawn from the personnel that comprised the Galician Volunteer Battalions that fought in Donbass in 2014-15. There were about 20,000 such troops in action back then, and they were pretty tough. Most likely these guys have been turned into real, active duty national army units in the years since 2015. But the question is, if war with Russia breaks out, how many of these guys will be in Ukie army uniform? Probably not a heck of a lot, because Galicia comprises only 20% of Ukraine’s total population. The manpower resources of that part of Ukraine are limited.
Pundits are quick to point out that Ukraine now has a standing army of 250,000 troops. But how many of those active duty soldiers would be available to fight the Russian army? That’s an open question. Also, it’s probably a given that a substantial number of these quarter million soldiers will simply refuse to fight. They’ll probably lay down their arms again, like they did in 2014-15.
Sorry, but what does the percentage of Galicians have to do with the ability of the military? Or false nationalism or a uniat fake religion? The Galicians are as strong as their Croat brothers. Yes, exactly from that same region (White Croatia) they immigrated with the Ugrians who picked them up at the entrance to the Great Moravia. When the war started, there were about 28,000 of them (southern Serbian Catholic parts). When the US / EU bombed Serbian positions, connection repetaters … there were 515,000 of them. All in the line for military pensions and tax breaks. Today, after the so-called “millennial dream” of independence, a third of the population has gone abroad. To the feud of their masters. So much for false nationalism.
The Russians must be ready to treat these people the way their Western masters treated them. No fraternity. Authoritative system. And that is the only thing they will respect. These people cannot be trusted, but that does not mean that they cannot be pacified. Maybe they could remember Stalin’s methods of settling Siberia :)). The Russians are as funny as they try to play the Democrats. It seemd that they are complex by that. Like some Serbs. Like the Croats or Poles who are bigger Catholics than the Pope.
“Sorry, but what does the percentage of Galicians have to do with the ability of the military?”
As I explained in my post, in 2014-15, the vast majority of Ukraine’s only reliable fighters came from Galicia. There’s no arguing against that point. That’s because in 2014-15, active duty Ukrainian troops – who were drawn from the entirety of Ukraine – proved utterly ineffective in combat. The only Ukrainian soldiers who were motivated to fight, and who were effective in combat, were the Volunteer Battalion troopers. And, as I said in my post, most of those Volunteer Battalions were drawn from the population of Galicia. The Volunteer Battalion soldiers didn’t come from the rest of Ukraine.
These facts very strongly suggest that only one part of Ukraine is comprised of people who are politically motivated to fight war with Russia. The rest of Ukraine doesn’t seem to possess that motivation. To repeat myself: that one part of Ukraine that has people motivated to fight is Galicia, which comprises only 20% of Ukraine’s total population.
Or, to put it another way, it’s just 20% of Ukraine’s population that’s shouldering the burden of producing Ukraine’s war effort. The rest of the Ukrainians simply don’t seem to care.
Therefore, if we’re assessing the motivation and combat readiness of today’s Ukrainian army, we’ve got to ask ourselves, how many Ukrainian active duty troops are coming from Galicia. I don’t know the answer to that question, but I can make an educated guess. That’s because Galicia is only 20% of Ukraine’s total population. Therefore, it’s reasonable to assume that roughly 20% of Ukraine’s active duty troops today are from Galicia.
My conclusion – based on educated guessing – is that 20% of Ukraine’s army will prove tough and battle ready if the war starts. The other 80% will do the exact same thing as happened in 2014-15: they’ll desert, defect, or disobey orders to advance under fire.
Ukraine’s biggest problem in war is that, if only 20% of its troops are reliable, then the Ukrainian army is in deep trouble once that 20% gets decimated by combat casualties. In other words, there simply aren’t enough Nazis (Galicians) to sustain an effective or long-term war effort on behalf of Kiev.
Do you understand my point now?
Right. And ….this part…… The Volunteer Battalion soldiers didn’t come from the rest of Ukraine….they came from all around the Europe. Nazist from Croatia were there. Serbs were on the other side.
I don’t think you understood what I wanted to tell you … and that is, that you should reduce that 20% number by half at least. Why? Because they are cowards. So I believe the Russians will have no military problem. However, the problem is how to rebuild the lost economy and to retake people who went abroad. It is a matter for the Russian government it is runing away from. Unfortunately, leadership didn’t think about it seven years ago, and today they don’t want take development responsibility of that regions It is about the same as Belgrade sold Serbs in Croatia and allowed assimilation. Elite business interests in the short term become more important than statesman long-term solutions. There are so many parallels between the Russian and Serbian ruling sets that it is unbelievable.
Concerning the Galician Nazis, I wouldn’t underestimate their capacity to fight well. I followed the 2014-15 Donbass conflict closely over as many Internet information outlets as I could, and based on what I read, the Galician Nazis were willing to fight and die. They were the only Ukrainian military units that gave the rebels any trouble in combat.
I don’t mean to honor or praise the Galician Volunteer Battalion troops. That’s because I know they committed atrocities. There’s lots of credible evidence that, in the summer of 2014, the Galician troopers set up mortar positions outside the cities of Lugansk and Donetsk, and from there bombarded civilian neighborhoods in those cities. There were lots of photos circulating on the Internet showing the victims: many of them were elderly people who lacked the means to get out of the war zone.
Worse of all about these atrocities is that the Galicians probably killed these civilians knowingly, deliberately, and willingly. That’s because it was well known that the targeted neighborhoods were inhabited by ethnic Russians. The whole affair really had the sordid aura of being an ethnic hatred kind of thing: Russian-hating Galicians settling historical scores by killing powerless ethnic Russian inhabitants of Lugansk and Donetsk.
I won’t get into the subject of the Galicians any deeper than what I’ve already said. But I do have one more point to raise about what may happen in Ukraine if war breaks out again in 2022. That concerns Ukrainian draft dodging.
You’re probably aware that throughout the 2014-15 conflict, Kiev had a very real and escalating problem with draft dodgers. Lots of Ukrainian men were ignoring their summons to report for military duty. In fact, by early 2015, there were even public demonstrations agitating against military conscription. Interestingly, these public protests were happening in west Ukraine. That’s remarkable, because west Ukraine is the part of the country where the vast majority of the people are solidly behind Kiev and the Maidan Nazis. To me, the manifestation of these public demonstrations suggests that even the most “patriotic” west Ukrainians were – and will continue be – vulnerable to demoralization and war weariness.
We would need to go to “caffe department” ….
Yes you do need to go to the MFC – this is off-topic and the rest of the comment is deleted. Any further off topic comments will go to the trash. Mod.
Look what happened to the Afghan National Army supposedly 300,000 strong. It collapsed in a few weeks under intense Taliban pressure. I can see a similar scenario taking place in Ukraine except I don’t think it will be a few weeks. The theatre of operations is much smaller so the operational tempo will be much faster.
The Galician fighters – are you refer to them – are a major stumbling block for peace in the region. Additionally, the Ukrainian parliament just approved a major deal with Turkey on the purchase of drones. The Ukrainian side already has drones and used them effectively inflicting damage and killing. That means there is a narrow window of opportunity, sometime before February or March of 2022, that would be ideal for the Donbass side to fight the Ukrainian side before Ukraine gets a major boost of new drones.
Lester Grau is a very good specialist and the book you reference might be very good (dunno, I just download it).
However, Syria is DRAMATICALLY different from the Ukraine.
You cannot simply transfer the Syrian experience to the Ukrainian reality. In that sense, WWII is a much better source of wisdom.
Still, yes, the Russian military can quickly make minced meat of the Ukies, but destroying the Ukie military of “liberating” X number of square kilometers of Nazi occupied territory is really not the issue.
The issue is 1) pacifying it 2) rebuilding it 3) protecting it.
So there is a HUGE difference between 1) defeating a conventional military force and 2) pacifying a region.
And yes, the Russians can do #2 too.
But at what cost?
Tell me, why should a SINGLE Russian solider dies for Ukie land???
In my personal opinion, the entire Ukraine is not worth a single Russian soldier’s life.
Many will disagree, and that’s fine, but that is my personal opinion.
Probably the upcoming meeting is mostly about internet safety (assurances/coordination against international hackers, etc.). They agreed last time to work together on that.
Do you really think that Brandon will meet Putin and come to a EU capital(for a second time) to talk about internet security?
Well, it’s a very important issue for the United States, one on which Putin has said he wants a written agreement. They will continue with what was agreed last time they met. They may set a framework for nuclear arms deals or treaties, expressing their willingness to make the world safer from these weapons. (In this Biden is better than Trump, who in his last days was driving towards a nuclear arms race, wanting to apply with Russia the kind of tactics he had applied with Iran.) They’ll talk about climate change. But, probably the one “agreement” that could be the “accomplishment” is one on internet security. Biden would love to have that for both practical and electoral reasons. incidentally, I do believe that Russia was very much involved in all or practically all the hacking that happened in the U.S. if from Russia. That when Biden publicly threatened to attack Russia cybernetically, Putin applied his published dictum and struck first with that. So, an agreement on internet security is very important and would send a very strong signal to Biden that solid agreements can be made with Putin’s Russia.
That kind of stuff is NOT discussed at a Presidential level.
Maybe a few nanoseconds will be added to the timer.
Saker, haven’t read your article yet but hope you’re still on line. Andrei Martyanov mentioned the Nudol test and it gets to mack 16 in 3 seconds. Do you have any info on this? Seems incredible if true what can we compare it to?
If you have not read what I wrote, why would you ever want to post a comment here???
Hope springs eternal but I have my doubts about any agreement between Russia and US. But I also believe US won’t help Ukraine in a pinch. How many times has the US said our commitment to so and so is iron clad? Ask the kurds. If Biden has the wherewithal to keep Ukraine in check it will only to be prevent another humiliation for the US. I’m just glad Putin said we don’t relax so the west won’t be able to surprise the Russians. For all the non oil producing countries this would be an awful time to fight Russia.
I have a question for the Saker.
Gasoline prices are getting much higher in the United States.
There were recent reports that Russia was sending tankers filled with oil to the United States. Do you think that that a part of what is happening?
No. That is just business on both sides. Nothing more.
It would be no surprise to hear Russians are shipping hydrocarbons here as we send hydrocarbons to Europe b/c Brussels and co. refuses to buy from Moscow.
Parts of this place have gone absolutely nuts.
I believe that the oil Russia is shipping to the US is from the Urals. But it would be hilarious if it was actually from Iran, routed through Russia.
The reason why the US is importing oil from Russia is that the refineries in the southern US are designed to refine “sour crude.” They had originally been getting “sour crude” from Venezuela. But now – due to US sanctions – they have no “sour crude” to refine.
Gasoline prices in the US skyrocketed once the lockdowns ended.
So US-maligned Russia rides to the rescue with sour crude from the Urals.
As the saying goes: “you can’t make this stuff up.”
Remember the ‘positive'(or supposed to be) between Lavrov and Kerry on Syria.Kerry only seconds back on US soil, says exactly the opposite.These people will never respect any treaty, any kind of paper signed.They are pushed by the presstitude on a 24/24 7/7 basis.They prefer to lose some kind of war(good news for the MIC, more weapons ordered in the minute), but not face.Even if it is suicidal.
Exceptionalism, we are the Masters of the World, we are stronger, God is with us,gog and magog,human rights, values, democracy etc…
Brandon has zero power to decide anything.
D apres les informations que j ai lues l ukraine risque de ne pas avoir assez de gaz et de charbon pour se chauffer cet hiver. Si cela devait arriver il risque fortement d y avoir le chaos en Ukraine.
En admettant que les usa et la russie se mettent d accord pour eviter un conflit pouvons nous etre surs que l actuel pouvoir en ukraine suivra les ordres de Washington vu la terrible situation dans laquelle se trouve kiev?
Et puis l autre probleme qu il faudra aborder est la stabilisation du pays. Un pays qui n arrive meme plus a acheter de quoi chauffer sa population est un pays mourant. Je suis d accord pour dire que le plus important est d eviter un conflit mais il faudra aussi trouver un moyen pour eviter l implosion de l ukraine qui n est pas viable actuellement. Et ca ca risque d etre encore plus complique.
Vu que l ukraine ne fait pas partie de l otan je voudrais savoir quels processus d escalade considere le saker pour qu un conflit ukraine/donbass se transforme en un conflit otan/russie.
Enfin je sais que l ukraine a deja lance 2 operations militaires dans le donbass qui ont echoue toutes les deux sans intervention directe de la russie. Je voudrais savoir qu est ce qui ferait qu en cas de 3eme operation la russie serait obligée d intervenir. Je pose cette question parce que je n ai pas l impression que l armee ukrainienne se soit beaucoup renforcee ces dernieres annees. Qu est ce qui ferait la difference par rapport aux deux autres operations?
According to the information I have read ukraine may not have enough gas and coal to heat itself this winter. If this were to happen there is a high risk of chaos in Ukraine.
Assuming that the usa and russia agree to avoid a conflict, can we be sure that the current power in ukraine will follow the orders of washington given the terrible situation in which kiev finds itself?
And then the other problem that will have to be addressed is the stabilization of the country. A country that can no longer even buy enough to heat its population is a dying country. I agree that the most important thing is to avoid a conflict, but it will also be necessary to find a way to avoid the implosion of Ukraine which is not viable at present. And it could be even more complicated.
Since ukraine is not part of nato i would like to know what escalation process the saker is considering so that a ukraine / donbass conflict turns into a nato / russia conflict.
Finally, I know that the ukraine has already launched 2 military operations in the donbass which both failed without direct intervention from russia. I would like to know what would mean that in the event of a 3rd operation, Russia would be obliged to intervene. I ask this question because I do not have the impression that the Ukrainian army has grown much stronger in recent years. What would make the difference compared to the other two operations?
Biden administration is in dire need for a win, for credibility among American voters.
Nuland and Burns were in Moscow on their initiative to try to sound out Moscow (MFA for Nuland, Intel chiefs of Security Council and SVR for Burns) and then a phone call Burns with Putin. What they need is the “look” of US as the Power in the geopolitical situation. They are losing ground everywhere and are terrified of the Double Helix, Russia-China, a reality that the US has no way or means with which to deal.
So, they start with the reasonable, non-ideological Russians. They know they can’t get to first base with the Chinese, but maybe Putin will grant a summit this year so their Sleepy Joe can get an historic meeting and the US can prance around as the Hegemon resurrected.
Putin cares nothing for the American needs and agenda. He will use the Summit for his own interests. it will be one more teaching session for the Russians to instruct the disintegrating US that Russia of 2021 is not Russia of 2000. And Putin’s cartoons are real Hypersonic missiles that he and Shoigu intend to use if the crazies in Ukraine, Poland, the Baltics, Norway, or other psychopaths and losers in Brussels attempt a war against Russia or tread into the Russian spheres, clearly marked on a map he will hand Sleepy Joe.
Putin will pledge carbon reductions and steady gas flows to any nation that has a contract with Moscow.
Beyond that, he will have paper towels at the ready to mop up Biden’s drool. And deodorizers for Biden’s flatulence.
He expects nothing from the US, though he will remind them that his hypersonic missiles will hit the West before the US cruise missiles come close to Russia even when the US launches first.
There cannot be a deal on anything because Biden can’t give up another inch of the US ‘holdings’. They will shut down some military operations in Iraq, but not Syria. The war Israel wants with Iran requires Israel to continue its attacks against Iranian proxies and assets in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. The Israelis control US policy in the region and the US can’t do anything about it. Elections in the US are heavily influenced by the Israel demands.
Because the US has to deal with the Double Helix, not just each of Russia and China separately, they have three enemies, threats, competitors for global power.
The US diplomats and subservient military chiefs are trying to find a way, a ploy to separate Russia from China, Putin from Xi.
It ain’t in the cards, and no Summit will change anything. Though, just maybe, the US will give back Russian diplomatic properties in the US. Don’t hold your breath, unless you attend the Summit and Sleepy Joe delivers his ‘natural gas’.
Putin cares nothing for the American needs and agenda
Agreed. But the US Americans seem desperate to talk to the Kremlin. And that, by itself, is worth Putin’s time.
Biden was put into the WH via election fraud.
The US has served diplomatic ties with Russia.
sorry, but that has no happened (at least so far)
The US and EU are forcing sanctions on Russia and its allies.
The US and EU are committing hyper war and interference against Russia and its allies.
Hunter Biden are running the Biden family business by plundering Ukraine via his position in Ukrainian gas Company, and lately by selling US Cobalt mine to China.
The only thing Biden can offer Putin, is more sale of US assets to Russia, for a fee of (10% to the big Guy). And Putin don’t want or need any of it.
Joe Biden´s approval is 1%, the lowest in US History.
FOX News is running “Welcome Trump 2022” Campaign, even though Trump has not decided to run yet.
Joe Biden is on his knees just for a Photo-op to publish in Western media, before the midterm election.
Putin would do the whole world a big favor, by denying that POS travel into Russia.
On the other hand it is rather dangerous to have Brandon visiting Russia.
He has just had a rectal exam and are cleared “perfectly healthy” in the western media.
So what if he suddenly dies (from Novichok) during his visit in Russia?
“Beyond that, he will have paper towels at the ready to mop up Biden’s drool. And deodorizers for Biden’s flatulence.” — are you suggesting they have just fitted an anal aerosol device to Biden’s large intestine tract so as to infiltrate Putin’s nasal passages with a toxic ‘corona virus 3.0’ at their next bio-meeting? Reminds my of a Southpark episode and alien satellite dishes. Lol. Mind you, I would adopt the precautionary principle (x2) being in any room with those malcontents.
But that aside, I agree with your sentiments. Everything the USA side does now is purely for domestic optics and mass media fodder to continue trolling Russia into the mid-terms. I note in the fringe antipodean media (run on empire logic) that Putin is being framed now as Hitler was — the arch villian for mass psychotic projection.
This is one psychological front line the Russians should keep defused as much as possible. And as for ‘soft’ conciliatory meetings before the war — once decisions have been made (behind the scenes) for war then many actions on the stage are playing to the longer-term post war history books so as to be able to justify defensive agression and assign blame to a hyped up demigod. Xi is a bit too difficult and alien for mass western psychosis — but Putin fits the niche well, or at least they seem to think so.
Il y a une chose que je ne comprends pas.
On append par les medias russes qu une reunion putin-biden est en preparation.
En meme temps les medias americaines ont commence leur propagande de guerre en durant que la russie va envahir l ukraine debut janvier.
Si l administration biden veut discuter avec le gouvernement russe pour eviter un conflit comment se fait il que les medias americains 1 n en parlent pas et 2 aient commence leur propagande de guerre anti russe? L administration biden n est meme pas capable de controler ce que les principaux medias americains publient sur un sujet aussi crucial qu une guerre en Europe? Elle controle quoi l administration biden?
C est presque comme si en 2003 pendant que les medias americains parlaient des armes de destruction massives de l irak on apprenait qu une reunion bush-saddam etait en preparation.
On se dirait que l administration bush est totalement divisee et que bush est totalement perdu.
There is one thing that I do not understand.
We hear from the Russian media that a Putin-Biden meeting is in preparation.
At the same time the American media began their war propaganda while Russia is going to invade Ukraine at the beginning of January.
If the Biden administration wants to discuss with the Russian government to avoid a conflict, how is it that the American media 1 does not talk about it and 2 have started their anti-Russian war propaganda? The Biden administration is not even able to control what the main American media publishes on a subject as crucial as a war in Europe? What does it control the Biden administration?
It is almost as if in 2003 while the American media were talking about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, we learned that a Bush-Saddam meeting was in preparation.
It looks like the bush administration is totally divided and the bush is totally lost.
There’s one small problem with this scenario, as outlined by Alexander Mercouris (and others): There is no “Washington” – there are only factions and whatever one faction does is immediately undermined by other factions.
So whenever Biden makes a “commitment” or even an “offer”, it is immediately undermined by someone else, either in the State Department, the Pentagon, or the intelligence community. That’s assuming Biden himself is capable of not reversing himself 24 hours after he makes any specific statement.
I don’t see any positive result other than some lip service coming from this summit, and I doubt Putin does, either.
The same applies to China and the Taiwan issue. As Mercouris has been documenting in recent weeks, it’s “one step forward, two steps back” every time the Taiwan issue comes up. Biden says one thing, then the White House reverses it within hours. It’s ridiculous.
As everyone knows, the US is “agreement=incapable” – because no one is actually in charge.
So I tend agree that a Ukraine-Russia (not not involving US or NATO) war is going to happen, just as a US-Iran war is going to happen (and probably a US-China war over Taiwan.) The only question is when and how.
The Ukraine conflict could happen at any time out to several years. The Taiwan war could happen any time Taiwan declares independence (or the US heavily arms Taiwan more than China would like) out to five or even ten years. The US-Iran war will likely only happen if Israel and the US can get Lebanon to collapse into a civil war again, which appears to be the new goal, since Israel can’t get rid of Hezbollah by itself (and the Syria effort has failed.) This could take another five or more years.
And of course, at any time in any of these scenarios, an intervention by Russia or China could derail events, or a war itself could derail other possible wars. An Iran war, for instance, would put other US aggression on hold, as the US wouldn’t want to split forces between the Middle East and, say, Taiwan (which China might use as an opportunity, depending on current conditions with Taiwan at the time.) And that might also hamper starting the Iran war, as the US might worry that China might use it as an opportunity. So all three hot spots make a war about any of them more difficult to predict.
Alexander Mercouris (and others): There is no “Washington”
That coming from the same Mercouris who denies that there are factions in the Kremlin?
Estou pessimista, creio que o ponto de retorno já passou, aguardemos uma noite sem Lua e neve decente que suporte as esteiras dos tanques para os fogos de artifício começarem.
Só não esperem Guerra sem a quebra na Economia Mundial, creio que isso virá primeiro. :-/
I’m pessimistic, I believe the turning point has passed, let’s wait for a moonless night and decent snow to support the tank mats for the fireworks to start.
Just don’t expect War without a crash in the World Economy, I think that will come first. :-/
Will the upcoming summit defuse the situation?
I think there is a good chance it will. The source of the escalation of the tensions and hostilities in the first place comes from Washington, not Moscow… the antagonization from the west has been ongoing for many years, yet we only see Washington seeking talks with Russia now… why?
They want something from Russia that they can only get with Russia’s cooperation. Otherwise they would take it without asking Russia nicely for anything.
The recent tensions (since NS2 has been completed) in Ukraine come across as a desperate attempt to get a rise out of Russia, in order to disrupt the direction things are going, now that they are finally going Russia’s way.
What does America want from Russia?
They know Putin will only give them what they want in exchange for major concessions, if at all. What are they willing to trade to Putin to get what they want?
Compromise on the Israeli issue maybe :))? Everything revolves around, in Ukraine as well. If Jews have no security in Israel where does the second option lie? Returning to Europe? The reason why the Brits and post-revolutionary Napoleon did the war for Crimea and support Ottomans? When Russia give up its support for BI so would Angloamericans on Ukraine. Only, the question is what does Russia get in Eastern Europe and lost with Iran? That’s the base for so much talk, at least in my opinion.
“…there is some very serious infighting taking place amongst the different clans/groups which rule over the US, NATO and the EU.”
The signs were written on the wall for years. What once was just plot for disaster movies became the most serious threat now. One or more desperate factions could orcherstrate false flag using thermonuclear weapons.
But who will Putin actually be dealing with as Biden is mentally out of it ?
Obama (ex CIA operative) is said to be running the show.
1. USA mid-terms looming. They are not agreement capable, and any such meeting and ‘agreement’ can only be relied apon (if at all) until the Republican route of Wokeistan in mid-2022. Then it will be Trump 2.0 all the way to 2024 (and likely beyond). They are rolling out old Bernie Sanders into the media light again so that is a clear signal the game is on.
2. Those SU-35s landing sure look smooth and killer cool. With pilots well trained in the Syrian theater I doubt there is much question of any encounter’s outcome. But I assume most of any hot war in a cold winter will be missile vollies from a distance.
3. Targeting those that give the orders is a good strategy for peace. An even better/stronger one would be targeting the ‘0.01%’ owners of the political representitives in US politics — and their offspring, and NZ bunckers. Put them on a 24x7x365 watch as the final domain of accountability for the military ‘racket’ that is referred to as the Pentagon and we would have sudden peace breaking out world-wide within days. Just start with the Forbes 500 and work down etc. Obviously old Betty Windsor in the UK is starting to fade out and meet her “Mr Virus” in the next world, so get ready for “King Charles” … the republican movement in Australia is already starting to crank it up.
4. As for the Poles. I hate generalisations, but the few Poles I have known have two core gender orientated features: the females flirt aggressively; and the males look for a foot to kiss. Trust factor approaching near zero. Their twisted ‘love’ of the British is strongly based on a deep seated desire to be ruled by a monarchy, imo.
@Anonymous (the one who wrote): “targeting the ‘0.01%’ owners of the political representatives in US politics — and their NZ bunkers [plus their bunkers in Patagonia] …. and we would have sudden peace breaking out world-wide. Just start with the Forbes 500 and work down. ”
A new military deterrent strategy for peace. I like it.
, but the few Poles I have known have two core gender orientated features: the females flirt aggressively; and the males look for a foot to kiss…
This is the Slavic factor. Among Serbs and Russians as well. You can also find it among Germans or Austrians. Men who come to the west are often mother’s sons, who become free and self-confident only when earnings appear. Money and position give them freedom, that is way they go west. To act like westerners. Women do this because they are afraid of the new environment also, due to the “learned approach” of all these “evil westerners” to the eastern woman. Moreover, they dont trust themselves. There is also the factor of socialism and city life where they learned from an early age to jump and defend their rights :)). But when you realy meet them, then you realize that they are harmless ….unless they are not humbags, the further south you go towards ME and probably the further east towards Siberia you need to be more careful :)). It’s Scythian blood.
re: Could the upcoming summit defuse the situation?
Partly, but the bigger issue is that it is doubtful that Moscow has convinced those on the hardliner side within the West that a strategy of small attacks numbering in the dozens is a bad one. Russia is unlikely to ever use force over any particular issue, but the eventual result is that Moscow loses ground or face.
In other words, red lines have to be enforced. It was painful for the West to lose the Crimea, but have there been other cases in the last 20 years? In the case of Georgia, Moscow didn’t get a neutral or pro-Moscow Tbilisi.
A further issue is that the West may want Moscow to negotiate things. For example, trade Syria or Iran for the Ukraine. Moscow just says that they want business and sanity. Why should the Anglo-Zionists go for that? If you want something, offer something.
Saker, I agree with your analysis overall, but I’m not sure where you get this “the Poles have never been good soldiers” nonsense. Do you have any examples? If anything, history has shown that the biggest problem for the Polish military is not knowing when to quit. The ability to fight a war and win is not dependent on the ethnicity of the soldiers, and in a possible war between Belarus and Poland it doesn’t matter because they are Slavic brothers. It makes me sad that the Anglo-zionists can manipulate Slavs so easily. All things being equal, the success of an army is dependant on leadership. In any case, I don’t see Poland attacking Belarus…this border nonsense is partially for domestic consumption and partially a counter response to the EU and their attacks on the Polish government. They don’t want an actual war because they know that Russia will get involved, and as a recent Polish wargame demonstrated, Russian forces would subdue Poland in less than five days.
“It makes me sad that the Anglo-zionists can manipulate Slavs so easily.”
Slavs tragically underestimate soft-power of western shills. They are extremely potent weapon. Look at the damage that Yeltsin did in Russia. It is comparable to limited nuclear exchange.
Slavs must devise effective defensive strategy, hopefully not old-school methods of Communists.
“Russian forces would subdue Poland in less than five days” – wrong – I would give that all of about five minutes.
They don’t need to march in there, their missiles can do that and reach that “pile of vomit on the map of Europe” in those few short minutes without any problems whasoever! Same goes for the ukie garbage in Donbass if they make just one wrong move. Only that would be a much faster “subduing”! Couple of minutes perhaps?
A good article on RT by a regular guest on CrossTalk.He agree’s with Saker it appears:
Optimism from Andrei. Wonderful! If he is right, then I suspect that Zelensky’s shelf-life may have expired. Not because of the Russians, who might see him as useful, but because of the USAmericans and their Ukrainian oligarchs who might be looking for a more sensible stance from Ukraine towards Russia.
It seems fair to say that once Biden meets Putin, Biden will not seek a violent confrontation or a war. But in his feeble mind, he also will want Russia to give up Crimea. With Russia refusing, he’s likely to put even more sanctions on Russia.
It’s hard to see Biden wanting to go to war or escalate things with Russia, and it’s also hard to see him wanting to go to war with China. But as the pressures grow on the international system, something’s gotta give, as they say. It’s hard to believe that there will not be a conflict in the coming years. It would take tremendous skill to manage that, but Putin has been good at defusing tensions, and so has Xi.
If there is a war in Ukraine, in my mind, it would make sense for the liberation forces to go at least until Kherson. Expanding the zone around Crimea makes sense. Liberating Odessa may be nice, but it may be beyond the reach at this stage.
Responding to others’ comments it should be mentioned that Russia obviously needs Ukraine as a safe zone on which missiles will not be placed.
There is a paradox in the current state of affairs. US is facing many internal problems whose resolution is (very) far from sight. Biden seems to be fearful of a major war unless he believes that the other country was the clear aggressor and therefore his duty is to protect the fragile liberal international order. However, the nature of the state of affairs in Ukraine is such that Ukraine (and the Ukrainian people) can never be happy with peace with Russia or with Donbass. They constantly need to attack due to their misguided ultra-nationalism, crumbling economy, and a successful campaign of brainwashing soldiers in certain battalions. At some point the rope will tear, but it’s not clear how quickly it can be mended and which part is the weaker end.
The biggest geopolitical mistake Russia and the Soviet Union made since 1989 was to allow for the unification of Germany. Modern day Germany sees Russia as an enemy although Russia has no hostile intentions towards it.
Regarding the Ukrainian population, many Ukrainians can change their mind quickly once provided enough financial incentives and once shown who is in charge. To depict the entire Ukrainian population as brainwashed and hell bent on the destruction of all things Russian and as desiring the extermination of ethnic-Russians in Ukraine whom it arguably views as lower species, is a gross generalization and inaccurate.
In the long run, I do not see any other solution but the liberation of the entire Ukraine, with what to do with the Lviv region remaining a conundrum. At the same time, as said earlier, Biden doesn’t really want war, and Putin is a master in diffusing tensions.
“…Regarding the Ukrainian population, many Ukrainians can change their mind quickly once provided enough financial incentives and once shown who is in charge. To depict the entire Ukrainian population as brainwashed and hell bent on the destruction of all things Russian and as desiring the extermination of ethnic-Russians in Ukraine whom it arguably views as lower species, is a gross generalization and inaccurate…”
Especially since most people never wanted to be in some artificial country called Ukraine in the first place, starting with the Communist transfer in 1922 of areas from Russia to eastern Ukraine so as to weaken the Russian world after the anti_Russian Revolution.
Let us think about where we are. Russia is doing well with a substantial trade surplus, lots of resources and considerable money in international currencies. China is by far the world’s foremost industrial country with maybe $3 Trillion in foreign currency resources. The USA has a debt of about $29 Trillion, a budget deficit of $2-3 Trillion a year and a trade deficit of about $100 Billion a month. The USA mainly produces luxury items and military equipment. Europe is not doing much better; but the USA has considerable energy and food resources, which Europe doesn’t have. The USA and Europe can only survive and fight wars by printing money. The BS about the Great Reset, and the Global Warming (climate change) and other scams only keep making things worse.
The USA and its main allies cannot survive an international war, Their economies would collapse on the first day with all international currency transactions and all foreign trade halted. Most commercial business transactions would immediately stop and most stores would quickly be emptied of useful consumer goods. All the (so called) wars since 1945 have only effected limited areas and caused only local hardship. With a major war today we would all quickly run out of things like gasoline, food and probably electricity.
The neocons seem to think that we can start a war against a country like Russia, China and even Iran, without the USA sustaining any adverse effects. The latest idea is a sort of a nuclear blackmail(if you don’t do what we say we will give Ukraine a Nuclear bomb to throw at you.)
I know this is insane but this is were we are at. I think think that any such war would have to be stopped on the second day, before some group decided that humans are so inherently evil that humanity needs to be destroyed.
A little something for those on blog to worry about:
Use Yandex to translate, shows how shallow SehSha reserves of refined petroleum products truly is.
Being a natural pessimist, I couldn’t agree with Saker. Through many briliant reports and penetrating analysis Saker has presented the case on behalf of Russia (and Belarus) describing why and how they want to avoid a kinetic war.
IMO there should be a thorough analysis also to explore the current socio-political condition of ruling oligarchy of the opposite camp. The single biggest problem of that analysis is nobody knows who are the gang leaders of opposite camp – is it UkroNazi ruling clique, is it Polish-Lithuanian ruling elites, is it German ruling party leaders, is it German opposition party leaders, is it USA Deep State, is it UK Oligarchy ? I think, there is a common thread running across all these groups/cliques – the Zionist-Capitalist global oligarchy. It is their interest primarily, which if and when, at least 80% coincides with the local oligarchy, we can expect a kinetic war….
Currently, IMO the global Zionist-Capitalist clique wants to mobilize only UkroNazi and Polish footsoldiers to test the resolve of Russia (and Belarus) in East European theatre. Similarly, they also would like to see Indian Hindutwa government and ISIS Sunni Terrorists launching preliminary rounds of war against China, to understand how PLA behaves ….
God forbid, humankind might have to face another WW! Absolute preparation is the ONLY thing the Resistance camp can do …. To win the coming war, it has to know itself and know it’s adversary, as told by Sun Tsu.
So sad to consider it might all be over in three days. So with seventy-two hours to go, best not to keep anything in. My gift to the Saker.
Q: “If God created us Who created God?”
A: “Not How but What. What created God?”
Q: “Okay, What created God?”
A: “Life created God.”
Q: “Who created Life?”
A: “Life renews It-Self from IT-SELF (“turtles all the day down”).”
Q: “What is the Light of Life?”
A: “Sometimes light means understanding, and the message asks, “What is there to understand about Life, about our father and mother who created God?” They are IT and SELF. To get to know it and self you must know your self and will to become IT.
“It, is from afar and your self is near to you. What is reality are the events that coordinate out of the union between it and self. That’s Life. The Light of Life is that coordination. Similar to life is in the eyes, blood is throughout the body.”
Q: “Who created Light?”
A: “God did.”
Q: What is the Light of God?”
A: The Christ, The AtMan, The Monad all share relationships to a path forward to God, and with the path lighted, the journey was made both easy and profitable.
The English alphabet is the path forward to God, it’s too bad you either missed it, or interpreted it as a means of control, rather than the everlasting life tool that it is.
So at the end of the day, who is the wiser?, The doctor, or the author??
Alabama: “So at the end of the day, who is the wiser?” It’s certainly not the one who darkens the path with insults, but rather the one who enlightens it with wisdom. Question answered?
We don’t get out much of late, to be blunt I’m too ill to wander around much beyond our bucolic little micro district. This being said, Russian Armed Forces are, from what I can clearly see in publik, like a bow drawn tight with an arrow in the notches. Of import is a visit to 35th Battery is clearly in order (I’ll have our regular driver do the honors) but one can rest assured that whatever I see or don’t see either at Battery or on the somewhat long journey out there will not be given a ghost of a mention on this forum. I’m not stupud and in addition to the taught drawn bow one can very clearly see OpSec in force. This in and of itself says reams.
Mother is prepared from the looks of things and one an only hope and pray that SehSha manages to get the two brain cells rocketing around in the collective cranial cavity close enough to generate a cognitive thought and step back from the abyss. At this time SehSha’s toes are clearly dangling in the wind beyond the edge of hell.
Never The Last One, a deep view in to Russian military and culture not normally available outside of Russia. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1521849056
An Incident On Simonka. NATO is invited to leave Sevastopol.
I’m very glad to see/read you. Hope your health improves.
Thanks, Marko. Ye’lean’chka and I are slowly improving and today, for the first time since our quarantine in Hospital #1 we could actually taste some good German weissen with lemon. We still suffer from sudden exhaustion but that should leave soon. Big thing was the weissen, nectar of the gods.
Two brain cells? Where did they find the second one, my good friend?
We know Ukraine’s advisers have none. And Stoltenberg “tempting” the Poles with B-61 nuclear warheads if Germany won’t base them, clearly an empty skull in action.
Washington? Encouraging the nazis in Kiev with more weapons, more munitions, more money to kill civilians in Donbass. Then sending top level emissaries to shape talks for a Summit? They blow up Minsk 2 protocols and turn to the Kremlin and say “Let’s make a deal.”
Even those of us who are far from Krim are with you, Auslander, with VCO and with the patriots of Sevastopol and the Peninsula.
Be well, my friend.
For those who want to understand your city and the history of Crimea versus the US/NATO, they should get your books, especially “An Incident on Simonka”.
Larchmonter, my friend and comrade of years,
Incident On Simonka shows Sevastopol and the locals for what it and we/they are. Screw with us and you will have a very sad day that you will remember for the rest of your days, however short those days may be in reality. Mainland was stunned when we handed Sevastopol and for that matter Krimea to them on a silver platter, this before the ‘polite young men in green’ first appeared. When the orcs promised to make our streets run red with blood the morning after Maidan was over we instantly armed up and invited them to come on down and give us a try. Oddly, none of those worthies appeared.
As for the collective political hierarchy of ‘da west’ I was being kind, reality is combined if their cranial cavities were full of dynamite they couldn’t blow one nostril. Screw with Russia? They have a death wish, no doubt. Arming the orcs? Oh goodie, NAF gets some more new toys! Sending ‘training cadre’? Make sure their life insurance is paid up in advance, don’t want to leave the mothers and girl friends in penury when the inevitable happens, the ‘golden pheasants’ are no longer treated with kid gloves and haven’t been for a couple years now.
VCO and I thank you and all those on Saker for your unwavering support, it means a great deal to us and those who should know of this support you can rest assured do know of this support albeit with absolutely no names or locations mentioned, not even the blog. For some odd reason ‘they’ trust me no end, mayhap because I don’t cut them any slack when they screw up and pour gold dust on them when they do something resembling a good and sensible deed. And you ain’t seen nothin’ until you’ve seen VCO tie in to them when they intercourse up, it ain’t pretty and that’s being kind.
interesting article…EU is coming to a realisation that it needs abilities to assert its own possibilities of separate actions but has not the skills or abilities….and is so in hock to Nato USA etc that has been deliberately promulgated.
Also big question….will the USA intention to quadruple their existing stock of nuclear missiles to over a 1000 in the next ten years be under question when USA has walked away from so much in the international agreement scene eg START and seems to be so intently manoeuvring not just threaten but manipulating scenarios not just to create stress but possibly-probably provocations because they have already worked out gameplans and are assessing their success possibities with regard to Project for New American Century and similar related intentions?
If Russia hasn’t already deployed Klub-K in USA and Germany or Netherlands already in warehouses it has delayed too long.
I doubt Russia’s military planners are under any illusions about the attack – they are not as deluded as in 1941
The current oligarchy in USA will not go quietly and the USA will decompose by violence or frustration
We are living through a Great Transition which the Ameri and call a Fourth Turning – it is in reality the emergence of China and the Suicide of The West
In his recent speech Putin said “it is imperative to push for serious long-term guarantees …
How is it possible that Putin still trusts the West?
because de-escalation measures contain VERIFIABLE actions, signposts.
So “trust” is neither needed nor assumed
We are witnessing the fruits of being “non-agreement capable”; now every disagreement between the U.S./Europe and Russia or China has to be settled by threats or coercion, whereas before treaties could be relied on to prevent conflict or resolve disputes. These developments are also not good for nuclear non-proliferation and the NPT.
For sane people, the sound of war drums is never pleasant to hear. From this point of view, the situation seems really bleak.
But the Anglo warmongers are desperate. That’s great news. We know they want war, but they have no serious option to start one more with any hope of getting something positive out of it.
If they start a war they will find themselves next spring with famine and social collapse in the US itself. The country will become uncontrollable and will no longer be able to serve as a platform to project their ideal of power.
A historical turning point that is approached by a high-speed unbraked bus driven by a crazy, drug-addled driver.
Many are worried. I am one of them. Let’s pray that’s all we can do.
Is détente (US, Russia, China) possible is the main question, Stephen F Cohen used to say. Is it? Or is the US too pessimistic about the long term to agree settle for détente?
Stephen Cohen was a liberal pundit who underestimated, was ignorant about or misunderstood the nature of imperialism. Imperialism is never content with resting on its laurels, it constantly needs to expand.
Stephen Cohen was a liberal pundit who underestimated, was ignorant about or misunderstood the nature of imperialism
Wow, you must have known him really well to make such a statement…
I think the US will try and threaten Russia. I don’t think there will be any climbdown by either side.
Agreed, Russia will not and can not back down. Biden’s handlers will push to the max, remains to be seen if they blink.
Today, China and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership. There are 10 nations represented here.
ASEAN is not only an economic partnership but also a security partnership, almost like the EU but with very different rules, honed through 30 years of partnership.
– a major partner of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation)
– a global network of alliances and dialogue partners and is considered by many as a global powerhouse,
– the central union for cooperation in Asia-Pacific, (not the Indo Pacific hegemon words)
– hosts diplomatic missions throughout the world.
The SCO is a Eurasian political, economic, and security alliance. It is the world’s largest regional organization in geographic scope and population.
On 20 May 1997, Russian President Boris Yeltsin and Chinese leader Jiang Zemin signed a declaration on a “multipolar world”.
SCO and ASEAN are where Russia and China intersect with their worlds.
Ask yourself, why is this announcement done today before the Putin/Biden-co meet?
They’ve had many years to do it.
Amarynth, I would aver that this announcement is a clear message and in essence a warning to Foggy Bottom of what they are up against, to whit, the largest country in land mass and the largest country population wise and arguably the largest economy on this rock, not counting all the other economies tossed in the bag. Yes, a clear message, but the question is does Biden et al even have a clue as to what this organization is.
The ASEAN nations are between a rock and a hard place in their dealing with China and the US.
Trade and development is vital and flows, like it has for 20-30 years from Beijing to them.
The US Asia-Pacific presence is long and historically hegemonic. The ASEAN nations, though small, really resist vassalage.
The claims China has on SCS made agreements and deals difficult but the ASEAN nations worked it out good enough to upgrade their relationship. It’s about development and that train is driven by Beijing.
This is all about trying to bring calm and growth to the region. Tough going as we see China pushing hard in the SCS (most recently against Philippines).
Interesting, the tensions brought by China and the US open the door wide for Russia in the region.
16:27 GMT today from journalist Murad Gazdiev’s Telegram channel:
“Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Agency reports a significant Ukrainian troop buildup along the border with Russia and Belarus”
I’ve heard nothing of the sort, surely no ‘build up’ on the Krimea/orc border as of two hours ago. Be careful of false reports put out simply to be worrisome. I can’t read it, I don’t do ‘social media’ in any way. If it ain’t on youtube I can’t and don’t read it. Also, zero in the local or Krim news as of 21:01 22.11.21.
First of all one should keep in mind the words of the chief of the Sitting Taurus Indians, who told the eternal truth, and knew it because he was a Shaman. In negotiations with the US government and the military about the Indians going to the reserves, he said: “How can I agree on anything with you, when you are constantly lying.”
Biden just wants to manage Vladimir Putin/Russia so it won’t challenge the Empire while it takes on China. However, the Empire/U$A has surprised the world during Olympics at its adversaries (China & Russia). In 2008 (08.08.08) during the Beijing Summer Olympics it challenged Russia through Georgia and during the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi it challenged again through Ukraine. What is the Empire planning for the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing?
Will Ukraine and Taiwan provoke Russia and China respectively around 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing?
After the Olympics, China won’t be constrained. Imagine Russia addressing the Ukraine issue through force and China taking over Taiwan at the same time. What will the Empire do then? This will be a game changer in the world. It will challenge the U$A in a big way and put its credibility at risk. This isn’t happening until the Winter Olympics are over in Beijing.
Is the Biden through the summit working towards a surprise?
UK to rt in news news flash tonight…Russia warns of Ukraine in provocation against Crimea….
note from a few days ago
Cooperation between Turkey in Ukraine is vital for security in the Black Sea region, Kyiv’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Thursday, as ties between the two allies grow stronger in every field including economy, defense, trade and tourism.
“Ukraine and Turkey are developing a clear vision for the future security of the Black Sea region,” Kuleba wrote in an article for Atlantic Council, an American think tank.
“It is time for NATO to begin viewing this Acupuncturist partnership as a valuable supplementary force that can help provide security and stability in the region,” he stressed.
Only joint action by NATO including ally Turkey “will make it possible to prevent the Black Sea from falling under Russian dominance and becoming subject to Moscow’s destabilizing activities.”
Speaking on relations with Ankara, Kuleba said that partnership was strengthened by the 2+2 quadriga format of political and security consultations involving the two countries’ ministers of foreign affairs and defense.
“Priority cooperation initiatives currently include large infrastructure projects and the joint production of Turkish Bayraktar drones, while plans are also evolving to unite efforts in the production of Ukrainian Antonov aircraft,” he added.
Most recently, Ukraine’s defense ministry late Tuesday published a video of what it said was its first use of the Turkish-made TB2 Bayraktar drone in the conflict, targeting artillery.”……etc
Lavrov warns once again
MOSCOW, November 22. /TASS/. The Kiev authorities’ belligerent rhetoric indicates their wish to send the Donbass conflict into a hot phase, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told a news conference on Monday, while commenting on media reports Kiev has for the first time used US anti-tank systems Javelin in the southeast of Ukraine…….
How much agency Team Biden has is up to debate. Lavrov’s remark about USA being Non agreement capable came after lavrov and Kerry signed peace accords in Syria in 2016 and a week later USA Central command launced a surprise attack on the Syrian base at Deir Ezzor coordinating with Isis.. Until disciplinary procedures are brought against the US commanders, they have every reason to be loyal to Mr. Global, Perhaps Putin should be meeting with the Rothschilds in London
had a thought… the new German subsidiary being created by Gazprom to finalise its NS2 certification….. we hope….is it possible its assets capitol etc could be seized under existing or additional sanctions or it be captured somehow….or even worse be held liable for events to be used as compensation ??????
Ukraine still moaning NS2 is hybrid warfare…..
BTW Moldova has not fulfilled its new gas contract obligations so supply is cut off. Expect complaints from EU?
I recall Eisenhower’s Open Skies deal being fubar’d by the remarkable coincidence of the U2 affair and F G Powers… some say the airplane was sabotaged, some even try to add in Oswald…
This is to say that sinister or occult, hidden, small group may be in position, put in position, to fubar the Biden-Putin deal.
One might say “trigger options” exist in several more or less unknown individuals or small groups, and there are sources of money and protection, curation, for such factor.
I am reminded of the explosion of USS Maine routine. They might, for example, wish for a war in order to have a defeat such that they would be obliged to cancel the mid-terms and declare “martial law” and so forth. There are some really nutty people out there.
There’s a claim, btw, @ “pravda” (yes, not so reliable) that the Sultan is being offered part of Syria in exchange for closing the strait to Russia… That would fubar any Russian deal with Biden, eh?
US is stalling for time. They know that they and NATO cannot currently succeed in invading Russia. All this talking, negotiating is only good for the short term; in the long run the US and its’ allies will not be deterred in overthrowing Russia and if possible China also. Credit must be given to Putin for stalling the war but he won’t stop the inevitable outcome and that is the US/West need and want Russian resources and have no intentions of obtaining it via trade and commerce.
After expanding NATO east, pulling out of ABM & INF treaties, breaking CFE Treaty & Budapest Memorandum, ditching JCPOA, violating Outer Space Treaty, ignoring the Feb 21st Agreement & Minsk II accords – why on Earth would the Kremlin believe anything the US/West says again?
M Sleboda on twitter
The answer is NO
No way to meet Biden or any US entity they only understand force, not inaction and capitulation de facto:
-2 exemples only for monday..more sanctions on NS2 and even more weapons for the ukies including missiles
Russian envoy slams US plans for new sanctions on Nord Stream 2 as unacceptable
Dialogue through sanctions is violates international law, Anatoly Antonov stressed
US considering sending weapons to Ukraine due to Russia’s alleged military build-up – TV
The package could include new Javelin anti-tank and anti-armor missiles as well as mortars
These criminals will always double down(even during 50 years if necessary), untill there is no real retaliation.
They must receive ‘a good lesson’ and get the fear of their life.Only after they will change their behaviour.
Their main target is to destroy Germany economically via Russia.
I agree they should meet. Always keep close to your enemy, at least you keep tap on their intentions. It is criucially important to know the facts of the situation on the ground directly and from the horses mouth and to eliminate any miscommunications.
A case in point, when Saddam invaded Kuwait in 1990, there was a hot line between king Fahd and Saddam. In the early morning upon Fahd learning of it phoned Saddam Saddam made another ignorant mistake, he refused to talk to King Fahd. According to ambassador Bandar, a council of 4 senior prince’s and the king met to decide whether to accept American army to liberate Kuwait. 2 princes for and 2 against. King Fahd said to them but half the Kuwaitis in Saudi Arabia why should we host the the Americans for (sensitivity of hosting non Muslims on the holy land).
With pressuring from the Americans, I imagine Cheyney and Baker said to king Fahd, if Saddam had no intention to take Saudi Arabia why wouldn’t he he talk to you, reluctantly Fahd accepted. Had Saddam picked up the phone and assured Fahd of no expansion beyound Kuwait , they would have had a solution. Fahd could easily have sacrificed Kuwait or at least pay off Iraq’s debt from the Iran war. Look at what the terrible stupid mistake has done to the Middle East and the world. IMHO, had Bush and Thatcher failed destroy Iraq in 1990 it would have been harder for them to repeat it in Yugoslavia, Syria Yemen and elsewhere. It takes great leaders to think rationally under pressure, the pressure of the life whole nation is his hand and it could spiral out control and become all humanity.
May God help us all from the greedy lunatics.
Just so’s ya know (and I’m sure you do), this (see link: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-intel-shows-russian-plans-for-potential-ukraine-invasion/ar-AAQYl4e#comments) is the typical kind of crap that the US media constantly dispenses to the thoroughly-conditioned Russian-hating American public. US Intel “knows” that Putin is planning some grand invasion of Ukraine from three fronts with the object to occupy the entire country. One entry will be through “stolen” Crimea, another from co-opted Belarus (which really wants to join NATO, accept an American-selected puppet as leader, and be “free!!”) and the third will be from “Russia itself” (you know, the border where Uncle Sam wants to position “Dark Eagle” hypersonic nuclear missiles with a transit time of about 20 minutes to Moscow). Perusing the 437 comments it would seem that most Americans who care to read about how all life may be ended to “save” Ukraine from the Russian boot are all for it and think it is actually feasible! I read some of these comments (based on incredible misinformation) and know that Christmas will not be scheduled on either the Gregorian and Julian calendar this year if these maniacs have anything to say about it. They figure that Russia is so weak it could never harm us and is so evil that it deserves a good beat down, especially Putin who only wants more POWER!! Imbeciles like this guy (see below) can’t seem to contain their enthusiasm for a nuclear exchange.
“The Russians have already invaded Ukraine and seized Crimea. Now the Russians are planning to destroy its democracy. NATO needs to defend Ukraine with nuclear weapons if need be.”
With encouragement like that I’m afraid the American leadership will actually start believing the BS it continuously dispenses. After all, no American will “blame” them even if they do trigger Armageddon. Certainly Ukraine is worth the price, no? If we can’t have the Ukraine, nobody can. Verstehe?!
If Ukraine attacks Donbass, Russia must occupy all of Ukraine except the four Galician provinces and set up a client regime in Kiev. After a few years run a poll like in Crimea and annex all of Ukraine.
The Galicia provinces can set up a rump state and rot off on its own.
Actually Putin should have done this back in 2014. The current problem is due to the error of only annexing Crimea in 2014.
I don’t agree at all that there are two parties (the war party and the peace party) in american politics with respect to russia: according to me, the war party is essentially fictional.
For sure the capabilities of current American politicians are quite low, but they are not would-be suicides: the disproportion of forces in the field is too evident in Russia’s favor, the only resource would be to resort to nuclear weapons and this would undoubtedly be a suicidal action.
On the contrary, an increasing pressure on Russia ahead of a meeting between the two presidents, would give them more cards to play on the negotiating table.
It is absolutely essential for the Americans to divide China from Russia as much as possible, and in this respect the Obama administration’s attempt to bend Russia to isolate China has been a total failure and indeed has had the opposite effect. Now the same political forces, aware of their epochal failure, want to resume talking to Russia and try to do so with intimidation and blackmail, knowing full well that they have very little concrete to offer at the negotiating table.
If in the meantime some provocation were to lead to serious consequences, the effects would fall on the western Ukrainians and perhaps on the Poles and Baltics as always, but who cares ?